Future Prospects for Oil Production

for New America Foundation July 12, 2012| Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

www.eia.gov

Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future
total liquids consumption million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 62 Non-OECD 46 OECD 41 40% 48

35%

Other non-OECD

19%

OECD Americas

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012

Non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth 2011-13 league tables
million barrels per day 2.0

1.5
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Canada Vietnam

2013 2012 2011

Oman

China

Other North Sea

Colombia

Source: EIA July Short-Term Energy Outlook Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012

United Kingdom
3

Russia

Mexico

Egypt

Brazil

Syria

India

Kazakhstan

Australia

United States

Azerbaijan

Malaysia

Norway

Gabon

Sudan

Tight oil production for selected plays in March 2012 approaches 900,000 barrels per day
thousand barrels of oil per day

Source: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through March, 2012. Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012

Tight oil resource potential and production remain highly uncertain

Tight oil production million barrels per day

High TRR

High EUR

Reference Low EUR

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012 5

U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production including biofuels and greater efficiency
U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day

2025

2035
Net petroleum imports

49%

Domestic petroleum supply

36% Natural gas plant liquids 10% 5% EUR Reference EUR TRR EUR Biofuels including imports Other nonpetroleum supply

Reference

EUR

TRR

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012

U.S. dependence on imported petroleum continues to decline

U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day

History

2005 2010

Projections

Consumption Extended Policies 14% High TTR 49% 36%

Net petroleum imports

60%

Domestic supply

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012

AEO2012 scenarios show wide range of outcomes

Reference case High and low economic growth (2 cases)

High and low oil price (2)

High and low estimated ultimate recovery cases and high technically recoverable resources (3)

Integrated high and low technology (applied to demand sectors; renewable; and electric power and refinery sector fossil; and nuclear) (2)
Policy related: Extended Policy, No Sunset, No Greenhouse Gas Concern, carbon dioxide allowance fee ($15 and $25), and 5-year investment recovery with reference and with low natural gas prices (7) Proposed light-duty vehicle CAFE standards; advanced battery technology; heavy-duty truck natural gas potential (3)
Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012 8

For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

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Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012