BASIN MODELLING Basin modelling aims to give a quantitative assessment of the amount of oil and gas that has

been generated in a sedimentary basin. Most basin modelling takes into account both time and temperature as the major factors in determining the amount of hydrocarbons generated. Basin modelling is usually carried out in three stages: 1. Burial history modelling 2. Thermal history modelling 3. Thermal maturity modelling Burial history modelling On deposition sediments typically have porosities of 50-75%, whereas when drilled at depths of up to 5000 m, porosities are 10% or less. Thus, enormous amounts of water must escape during compaction. As compaction proceeds the grain-to-grain contact pressures increase to support the overlying weight of sediments. This is mechanical compaction. Mechanical compaction is usually calculated on the basis of an exponential equation of the form = 0 e-cz, where is porosity at depth (z), 0 surface porosity and c the compaction coefficient (a measure of the change of porosity with depth for a given lithology). In addition, the sediments must be supported by the underlying basement, which responds to the applied load. If the basement behaves as an incompressible fluid, then perfect Airy isostatic compensation occurs, creating an equal volume accommodation for further sediment accumulation. If, however, the basement is completely rigid, then no response occurs. Reality lies between these two extremes, leading to a basement response that reflects flexural plate behaviour. Dynamic fluid escape depends on the permeability behaviour of the compacting sediments. As fluid loss proceeds, the porosity and permeability decrease, leading to an increasing delay in extracting the residual fluid. The increasing overburden is compensated by an increase in the retained fluid pressure above the hydrostatic pressure, leading to the development of overpressure. If the sediment deposition rate is high, there is a strong possibility that overpressures will develop. Also, since > 75% of sediments are low permeability, fine grained clays and muds, overpressure is widespread in sedimentary basins. This has several consequences; for example, compaction in overpressured formations is less than normal, so they retain thicknesses closer to depositional thickness that would normally be expected. In addition, the thermal conductivities of the overpressured formations are less than normal, thereby increasing the vertical thermal gradient. However, if the total fluid pressure exceeds a limiting value, the rock will fracture, thereby releasing fluids and lowering pressure, at least temporarily. The presence of faults may also lead to fluid escape.

Apart from fluid effects, major contributions to the burial history of sediments include depositional variations, erosion events and tectonic events (rifting, inversion, compression, diapirism etc.). The data needed to reconstruct burial history are thickness, lithology and geological age of the layers and the water depth at the time of deposition. To model the compaction history, surface porosities and lithology-dependent compaction coefficients of the layers need to be known. Unconformities represent breaks in sediment deposition. They can be modelled as (1) a depositional hiatus or (2) as a period of uplift followed by erosion. Thermal history modelling The thermal history of sedimentary basins depends on two fundamental factors: first, variations in the basement heat flux and; second, the means by which heat is transferred through the sediments. Additional internal heat sources, such as radioactive layers (usually shales) within the sediments, igneous intrusions and frictional heating due to faulting, are considered usually to be of secondary or local importance compared to the external regional heat flux. The average basement heat coming from the Earth's interior is about 1HFU (~ 42 mW/m2). This is small compared to the average solar heating of about 1300 mW/m2, but the surface heating is mostly reflected and temperature increases with depth below the superficial layers due largely to the internal heat flux. Measured temperature gradients in sedimentary basins are generally in the range 20-60oC/km. Sedimentary rocks have a range of thermal conductivities from low values for high porosity, unconsolidated rocks to higher values for low porosity, consolidated rocks. Lithological effects are subordinate to the effects of the interstitial fluids, but values are lowest for shales and mudstones and higher for sandstones and carbonates. Halite (rock salt) has the highest thermal conductivity for a common sedimentary rock. Thermal modelling requires estimation of the paleo-heat flux during the evolution of the basin. Two approaches are possible: (1) forward modelling by analysis of the dynamic evolution of the basin (for example, stretching models of McKenzie type predict higher heat flux (up to 3-4 HFU) during rifting phases), and (2) inverse modelling of measured thermal indicators. Inverse modelling of the paleo-heat flux: Uncertainties in forward heat-flux modelling have focussed attention on inverse models applied to thermal maturity indicators such as vitrinite reflectance of coaly material, colour indices of fossils, mineral transformations, etc. Thermal indicator inversion schemes model the temperature history of the layers in which the thermal indicators are measured. The inverse problem determines the heat flux history consistent with the measurements.

Thermal maturity modelling Calculation of thermal maturity is crucial to basin analysis models. It is accepted by most workers that the thermal maturity is mainly a function of temperature (exponentially related) and time (linearly related). The "time-temperature index" (TTI), originally devised by Lopatin (1971) for the maturity rank of coals, was developed by Waples (1980, 1981) for hydrocarbon generation and related to the vitrinite reflectance thermal indicator. While this method calculates maturity in a general way, more specific kinetic methods were developed that are based on general schemes of kerogen degredation involving parallel reactions with specification of reaction-rate constants and activation energies. The reactions relate kerogen types to the generation of oil and gas and the breakdown of oil to gas. All are temperature dependent and most involve first-order chemical kinetics using the Arrhenius equation. The scheme devised by Tissot and Espitalie (1975) considers the three kerogen types, each of which is considered to have six different bond types with activation energies in the range 10-80 kcal/mole. The amount of organic material reacting for each bond type is specified for each kerogen type. A single reaction is used to account for gas generation by cracking. Tables of activation energies and reaction constants were compiled by Tissot and Welte (1984). References: Lopatin, N.V. 1971. Temperature and geologic time as factors in coalification. Waples, D.W. 1980. Time and temperature in petroleum formation: Application of Lopatin's method to petroleum exploration. Bull. Amer. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. 64, 916926. Waples, D.W. 1981. Organic Geochemistry for Exploration Geologists. Tissot, B. & Espitalie, J. 1975. L'evolution thermique de la matiere organique des sediments: applications d'une simulation mathematique. Revue de l'Institut Francais de Petrole 30, 743-777. Tissot, B. & Welte, D.H. 1984. Petroleum Formation and Occurrence.