GITAM SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS GITAM UNIVERSITY GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT TERM PAPER ON

EFFECTIVE SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT

SUBMITTED TO

SUBMITTED BY

Mr Ravi Shankar Professor Global Supply Chain Management

NAME: Arka Jyoti Paul MBA (IB) Second Year 4th Trimester SECTION B REGISTRATION NUMBER 1226110203

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I owe a great many thanks to a great many people who helped and supported me during the preparation of this report. I hearty thank our Global Supply Chain Management Professor Mr Ravi Shankar for guiding us through the project and correcting the various documents with attention and upmost care. He has taken the pain to go through the report and make necessary adjustment and correction where required. I would also thank our Institution and our Faculty members without whom this project would have been a distinct reality. I would also like to extend my heartfelt thanks to our family and well wishers.

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ABSTRACT Disasters recently received the attention of the operations research community due to the great potential of improving disaster-related operations through the use of analytical tools, and the impact on people that this implies. In this introductory article, I describe the main characteristics of disaster supply chains, and I highlight the particular issues that are faced when managing these supply chains. In the event of disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes and terrorism, emergency relief supplies need be distributed to disaster victims in timely manner to protect the health and lives of the victims. I develop a modelling framework for disaster response where the supply chain of relief supplies and distribution operations are simulated, and analytics for the optimal transportation of relief supplies to various PODS (Points of Distribution) are tested. This model of disaster response includes modelling the supply chain of relief supplies, distribution operations at PODs, dynamics of demand, and progression of disaster. The model analytics optimize the dispatch of relief supplies to PODs and cross-levelling among PODs. Their effectiveness is estimated by the simulation model. The model can evaluate a wide range of disaster scenarios, assess existing disaster response plans and policies, and identify better approaches for government agencies and first responders to prepare for and respond to disasters. Key learnings from the supply chain model are discussed broadly at the end of the report but for briefing the learnings were: For a Disaster Management Supply chain model the lead time should be very less or minimal. Quick and effective suppliers are required for quick procurement of Emergency food and medicine. Concept of Cross Docking and in-transit merging should be used in the model Human and financial resources need to be mobilized. Disaster response plans should have the flexibility to handle adverse situations like low POD (Point of Distribution) throughput and large number of victims. Centralized Database should be maintained. Extended Point of Delivery & Relief should be spacious, convenient to reach for the casualties etc.

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CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE MODEL RELIEF CHAIN PROCESSES EMERGENCY LOGISTICS & TRANSPORTATION MANAGE INFORMATION DURING DISASTER INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCIAL SUPPLY CHAIN LOGISTICS SOFTWARE USED IN DISASTER RELIEF COMMUNICATION KEY LEARNING FROM THE SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL CONCLUSION REFERENCE

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INTRODUCTION Recent natural and man-made disasters such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Gustav in 2008, flooding in Iowa in 2008, flooding in North Dakota in 2009, earthquake in the Sichuan Province of China in 2008, U.S. anthrax attack in 2001 and the possibility of a pandemic of H1N1 influenza in 2009 made us realize how important it is to have effective disaster preparedness and response planning. Larson et al. (2006) provide a historical review of five major disasters the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the crash of United Flight 232 in 1989, the Sarin attach in the Tokyo subway in1995, Hurricane Floyd in 1999 and Hurricane Charlie in 2004 - and stress the need for operations research models to improve preparedness for and response to major emergencies. One of the responsibilities of federal and local governments is to distribute emergency relief supplies such as water, meals, blankets, generators, tarps and medicine to disaster victims in the event of various natural and man-made disasters such as hurricanes, earthquake, flood and terrorism. Emergency relief operations may need to cover millions of people in a short period of time. For example, it is desired that water and meals reach victims within three days to prevent serious health hazard and death. For a wide-spread smallpox attack, the vaccination of all in potential contact is recommended within 4 days of exposure, and in the event of an anthrax outbreak, the distribution of antibiotics is recommended within two days of the event. Adverse consequences of ineffective distribution planning can include death, sickness and social disorder. For example, the confirmed death toll from hurricane Katrina in 2005 is over 1,300 victims, in addition to $200 billion of damages. A better response plan would have reduced the death toll in these disasters. Therefore, careful planning of distribution of emergency supplies considering various risk factors and uncertainty is important because it will influence the lives of many people. The task of providing immediate disaster relief and recovery assistance also requires coordination between local and the federal government. The supply chain of the relief supplies differs from commercial supply chains in many ways including the following factors; a huge surge of demand with a short notice, damaged/congested roadways, chaotic behaviour of demand (victims), breakdown of infrastructure such as communication networks, short lead times, and many other unknowns and uncertainties. Preparing for a large disaster such as a hurricane is difficult because predicting where it will strike with accuracy is impossible. For example, based on the National Hurricane Centres (NHC) average forecast error, the highest probability that a hurricane is expected to make landfall within 65 nautical miles radius of a certain area in 48
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hours is only 20-25% (NHC, 2009). Therefore, for the HCLP (high-consequence, lowprobability) events, a new breed of analytical models is needed to better understand the disasters and to better prepare for and respond to disasters. Disaster Management A crisis, resulting in extensive human suffering, property damage, and a disruption of society, stretches the community's coping mechanism beyond the breaking point. The event becomes a disaster when the community's capacity to cope is overwhelmed and the status quo becomes untenable. To improve this situation, we need a strong and robust supply chain. To be effective in a disaster situation, the supply chain needs to encompass the following features: 1. Agility Agility is the capacity to adjust rapidly to and respond to changes in the distribution process at any point in the operation in order to rationalize and harmonize emergent requirements and priorities. 2. Value Value means to have the best possible synergy of effectiveness and efficiency to provide the most responsive support for the least cost. 3. Velocity Velocity is the speed at which requirements are fulfilled by the distribution system. Synchronizing the velocities of the various global distribution aspects maximizes total system effectiveness. 4. Visibility Visibility is required to have the accurate and timely monitoring and managing of flow by all parties. Supply chain visibility applications enable the management to extract data from multiple platforms and applications and share that up and down the supply chain. It allows the distribution managers to optimize the distribution capacity to anticipate logistic bottlenecks, disruption, and changes in the distribution operational scheme.

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DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE MODEL

Disaster preparedness and response modelling consist of four areas: supply chain model, POD distribution model, demand model and disaster model. The supply chain model

describes the flow of disaster relief supplies from federal government suppliers to distribution centres (DC), to federal staging areas to staging areas of local governments, and finally to the points of distribution (POD). The POD distribution model describes how relief supplies are distributed to victims who come to a POD to receive supplies. The demand model describes the occurrence of disaster victims needing relief supplies with respect to time and location. The disaster model describes the arrival and progression of disasters with respect to time and location. The disaster model affects the other three models. It influences the number of victims (i.e., the demand model) and activation of supply chain nodes and transportation (i.e., the supply chain model) and the efficiency of POD operations (i.e., POD distribution model). All four models together contribute to the impact of disasters and overall effectiveness of disaster preparedness and response plans and operations. For comprehensive analysis of disaster preparedness and response, any potentially useful analytic models should also be evaluated and tested in the simulation environment where all four areas are modelled. It has four components; supply chain model, POD distribution model, demand model and disaster model. Although the simulation model described here is for scenarios of hurricane, the framework can be customized to other disaster responses. For the supply chain model, we simulate the flow of disaster relief supplies from suppliers of federal government to distribution centres (DC), to staging areas of federal government, to staging areas of local government, and finally to the point of distribution (POD). The disaster relief supplies I am focusing here is water and MREs (Meal-Ready-to-Eat). Depending on the type, location and severity of disaster, selected supply chain nodes, i.e. a certain number of suppliers, DCs, staging areas and PODs, are activated to handle the required supply chain. The POD distribution model describes how relief supplies are distributed to victims who come to PODs to receive the supplies. PODs for commodity supplies can be parking lots of schools or stores, and victims typically drive up and pick up boxes of supplies and drive away. PODs for medical supplies can be buildings such as schools, recreation centres, theatres, stadium and medical facilities etc. PODs require a number of workers (typically volunteers), machines such as folk lifts, triage for medical
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supplies and service queue lines etc., and the overall throughput rate (processing rate for distribution or dispensing) depends on all the resources and setups. The demand model describes the occurrence of disaster victims needing relief supplies with respect to time and location. Depending on disasters, severity and response, the profiles for victims can have different peaks and durations. The demand model can also include modelling of evacuation, which describes number of victims leaving the disaster area. For hurricane, most coastal locations need to start evacuations by 48 hours in order to have them completed before the tropical storm-force winds arrive. The victims who need emergency relief supplies are those who stay in the affected area and be impacted by the disaster. The disaster model describes arrival and progression of disasters with respect to time and location. The disaster model affects the other three models. It influences the number of victims (i.e., the demand model) and activation of supply chain nodes and transportation (i.e., the supply chain model) and the efficiency of POD operation (i.e., POD distribution model). The balance between supplies of disaster relief and demand of disaster victims are manifested as the coverage (i.e., percentage of victims receiving emergency supplies over time). All four models (supply chain, demand, POD distribution and disaster model) together influence the impact of disasters and overall effectiveness of disaster preparedness and response plans and operations. For a

comprehensive analysis of disaster preparedness and response, any potential analytic models developed should be evaluated and tested in the simulation environment where all four areas are modelled.

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Figure 1: DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE MODEL

SUPPLIERS SUPPLIERS

SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL

DC

DC

DC

REGIONAL STAGING AREA

REGIONAL STAGING AREA

REGIONAL STAGING AREA

LOCAL STAGING AREA

LOCAL STAGING AREA

POD

POD

POD

POD

POINT OF DISTRIBUTION MODEL (PODs)

NEEDS

DEMAND MODEL

DISASTER MODEL

Proximity of disaster

Population

Severity of Disaster 9|Page

Various analytic tools can be useful in the supply chain. For instance, an optimal resource planning model can compute optimal levels of resources such as number of storage and staging facilities and number of trucks. An optimal pre-stocking model can compute prestocking levels of supplies at various DCs and staging areas. An optimal dispatching model can determine the destination POD of each truck that leaves the local staging area. An optimal routing model can determine optimal routes of trucks when delivering supplies to more than one PODs. An optimal cross shipping model can compute optimal time and quantities of cross shipping among PODs. In addition to the flow of emergency supplies, there also is a flow of information among the hierarchy of command centers, which may include a central government command center (e.g., NRCC National Response Coordination Center), regional commend centre (e.g., JFO Joint Field Office) and local command center (e.g., EOC Emergency Operating Center). The command centers exchange information on supplies (inventory level, dispatching and arrival of trucks) and demand (number of victims and queues) throughout the relief operations. Communication is a key factor for effective response operations. Even if the supply chain is setup effectively, if incorrect or delayed information are communicated, the overall effectiveness of the disaster response operation will suffer.
SUPPLIERS COMMAND CENTRE WAREHOUSE
MATERIAL FLOW

INFORMATION FLOW

REGIONAL STAGING

COMMAND CENTRE

LOCAL STAGING COMMAND CENTRE VICTIMS DISTRIBUTION POINT

FIGURE 2: Material and

Information Flow

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RELIEF CHAIN PROCESSES

Planning Preparation Assessment

and During pre-disaster, proper planning and preparedness for logistical procedures and activities must be done. Assessment comprises of activities like preparedness planning, survey and data collection, interpretation and forecasting, reporting and monitoring

Resource Mobilization Procurement

Human and financial resources need to be mobilized by various humanitarian organisation This is emergency supplies which can be done locally or globally and can be acquired in different ways such as bulks or stored at the vendor until needed

Transportation

It involves shipment, logistics, transportation etc, through which the goods are brought into a country at an entry point and then moved to collection sites run by relief organisation

Tracking Tracing Stock

& It means keeping track of what has been ordered, promised, things on its way and already arrived, etc. Asset The stock should be inspected and accounted, and if there is any flaw should be sent back.

Management

Extended Point An extended delivery point is an inland destination close to the affected of Delivery & area where goods can be staged before the final distribution of relief to Relief Beneficiaries Monitoring, Evaluation Reporting to beneficiaries. Finally, distribution should be carried out in proportion to the requirement and all the affected gets there share During implementation, monitoring and evaluation create the information & base for decision making. It is also used to formulate conclusions and recommendations for the supply chain.

Communication & Collaboration

In disaster, setting communication is quite a difficult task, but quite helpful. Between different agencies working for relief should have proper cooperation

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LOGISTICS
Logistics is central to humanitarian relief. The speed and efficacy of relief programs depends on the ability of logisticians to procure, transport, receive, and distribute supplies to the site of relief efforts. An effectively structured and managed relief supply chain can save lives. Logistics would need to have following characteristics: 1) It must move freight and people by multiple modes (Land, Sea, Air), through different terminals. 2) Distance travelled is often long. 3) Transportation needs to be fast and flexible. The network design that would be suitable in disaster management is a variant of, "All shipment via Central DC (Distribution Center)". In this model, suppliers send their shipment to the DC and the DC then forwards appropriate shipments to the retail store. Generally DCs served the purpose of warehouse and transfer location. This model saves on both outbound and inbound costs. In case of disaster management, we'll use a variant of this model. In this all shipments would be routed through a sequence of DCs. It would have following nodes: 1. Point of Origin / Source This node refers to the actual source of all the material, people, etc. Generally, there are numerous such nodes. 2. Point of Collection All the material from various sources would be collected here. This would work as our first DC. This is generally in proximity of the sources itself and located at some transportation terminal. From here, material is now transferred to the point of extended delivery. 3. Point of Extended Delivery This point would works as second DC and it would be in proximity to the disaster area. This point would normally be the nearest airport or any other transport terminal.

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4. Disaster Area Disaster area is, in most of the cases, cut-off from the rest of the world. Facilities would be transported here from the point of extended delivery. Air is most commonly used route of transportation to this area. FIGURE 3

In the above model with 2 DCs, there is a need to store inventory only at one center, either at DCs or PoDs, other place would work as transfer location. Here, we could introduce the concept of Cross Docking and in-transit merging. In Cross-docking, the inventory does not get stored, but only passes by and goes through rapid unloading,

deconsolidation/reconsolidation and reloading. In in-transit merging the pipeline is still in place as well, but individual shipments are grouped on the way to the point of delivery. DCs are a transfer location, where no inventory is stored, instead cross docking is employed. Material from inbound transportation is simply mixed and transferred into outbound transportation. This calls for painstakingly synchronizing and coordinating the activities.
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Whereas at PoDs, material is stored and broken down into appropriate lot sizes and based on demand transfer it to the disaster-strike area.

MANAGE INFORMATION
Disasters, both natural and man-made, can strike anytime or anywhere. There are two ways to overcome disasters: the first is to prevent them from occurring, and second to have an emergency system and plan of operation prior to the occurrence of any crisis. In either approach, communications play an important role in disaster management. Disaster management demands for some design principles in an information system. 1. Information processing should be done in a prognostic manner. 2. It should be done in a case-based model. 3. The system should be automated as much as possible but with constant human monitoring and the ability to override. Information System Architecture Based on above requirements, an information system is proposed. Key characteristics of the proposed model are listed below. 1. Web Based Web based information system is best means of sharing information in real-time scenarios. It provides instant access to information to all concerned parties, thus reducing response time to a great extent. 2. Centralized Database Centralized Database means that there would be a single database of information that everybody would have access to. Information that would need to be stored in it would be: Inventory details

This includes inventory details at each point in the whole chain, i.e., at Point of extended delivery, with sources and in transit.

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Requirements at disaster site

This data would be fed in by PoED operator, basically in the form of order. Tracking information

Material movement should be kept track of. This would include details like no. of vehicles, transportation schedule and inventory-in-transit etc. Disaster related information

This information is basically meant for projecting demand and proactive decision making. Extent of destruction, recovery process etc would come under this head.

SOURCES

PoC

Requirements Inventory details and Delivery notification

INFORMATION PoEDs SYSTEM 3PL PROVIDERS

Requirements

Tracking information

Instruction

All tracking information

CONTROLLING AUTHORITY

FIGURE 4: Information System Design

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INFRASTRUCTURE

In relief work, both in disasters and complex humanitarian emergencies, damaged infrastructure, inaccessible infrastructure, and the lack of infrastructure needed for large-scale assistance lead to bottlenecks, delays, and congestion at entry points to the disaster area. As goods flood into a region, they can be held up at the ports, border crossings, and airports due to lack of transportation, permission to enter certain areas, or even roads. This is a problem across all relief chains, and those employed during the Tsunami were no exception. As the water rushed ashore, it damages the entire infrastructure in its path. This included coastal roads, bridges, warehouses, airports, ports, vehicles, and communications infrastructure. As the water receded, it left debris covering everything, both infrastructure it damaged and infrastructure it left intact. The infrastructure that was in place before the Tsunami was rendered useless until repair and clean up operations could be completed. As aid began to arrive in the region, the lack of infrastructure prior to the Tsunami exacerbated the problems. The demands placed on this infrastructure by the relief chains revealed deficiencies in the undamaged infrastructure: a lack of available vehicles, insufficient fiuel storage, runways too small to manage cargo planes, inadequate warehouse space, and scarce air traffic control. The lack of infrastructure appropriate for a large-scale relief operation coupled with damage to a portion of the infrastructure that did exist produced one of the biggest challenges congestion. In Sumatra, for example, the major airports and seaports were open; the infrastructure beyond them was damaged. Banda Aceh's small airport went from three flights a clay before the disaster to round-the-clock traffic. Undamaged vehicles were in short supply and had difficulty moving through the region. The few vehicles that could get through were large trucks that traveled on cleared roads and hence, could not reach those most in need. As a result, helicopters became a much-coveted asset. This is also true in Darfur and the high plateau region of Ethiopia. It is easier to fly in supplies than to get them there overland. Insufficient ground crews to handle goods slowed the unloading of planes. At one point, a cargo plane hit a cow at the only airport in Aceh and damaged the plane, blocking the runway and halting relief flights for a day (Djuhari, 2005). Limited storage space led to offloaded cargo that quickly filled available tarmac space. Communication problems and poor information technology infrastructure caused very limited visibility into incoming shipments. It was hard to know what is in a shipment, when it was coming, and who was coming to pick it up.
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FINANCIAL SUPPLY CHAIN

The financial response from public and private donors to the Tsunami was unprecedented. However, before relief can begin to flow, the financial supply chain must be put into place. This is a difficult process in the beginning and takes time. Meanwhile, available cash reserves are quickly depleted. Before the processes for money transfers are in place and agreements with local banks and merchants are formalized, organizations can struggle. In the first few days, cash flow problems abound. In areas with less developed banking infrastructure, organizations have used their creativity. Workers for CARE brought in suitcases of cash into Southern Sudan to prime the relief efforts in that region (Martha Thompson, personal communication, October 8, 2004). In response to the survey, two NGOs reported difficulties during the early stages of their Tsunami response. They wrote that while financial resources were available, they encountered problems with cash availability. Immediately after the Tsunami, banks were closed in Jakarta due to Christmas holidays and weekends. This complicated cash transfers from Europe and made it difficult to enter into agreements with merchants. Competition can hinder progress in this arena as well. World Vision reported a problem hiring local staff as the cost of hiring labour off the local market was higher than they could offer. LOGISTICS SOFTWARE USED IN DISASTER RELIEF

Relief logisticians must procure and track supplies from appeal to delivery while observing financial information and the movement of goods along the relief pipeline. The availability of accurate and pertinent information is crucial. Despite their role in providing relief to beneficiaries, logisticians are rarely incorporated in the purchase and development of information technology solutions relating to relief operations (Lee & Zbinden, 2003). Many organizations have been providing relief for decades. As the information technology revolution overtook them, they developed ad-hoc systems to help manage the logistics of disaster relief. Yet, most relief activities are coordinated using only Microsoft Excel. Because there are, few technical systems experts on staff and focus on overhead reduction, software development has been left by the wayside. Consequently, these systems are short on historical data, poorly connected, lacking integration across functions, error prone, poor at
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reporting, and not able to handle food, non-food, and gifts-in-kind all in one system. Recently the Fritz Institute, along with help from researchers at the University of Washington, investigated this problem. First, they performed an analysis of the logistic systems in use by leading NGOs.

COMMUNICATIONS During a disaster, communication is as important as food and water. A disaster can damage telecommunication infrastructure. If an event happens in a densely populated area, thousands of people can try to make calls at the same time overloading the system. NGOs recognize the importance of communication. Those with sufficient resources have developed internal communication solutions. For example, the American Red Cross, through its Disaster Services Technology Integration Project, has created mobile communication trucks. The telecom trucks, once positioned, provide "48 phone lines, high-speed internet access, e-mail and satellite-enabled communication with national headquarters" (Larkin, 2001). These trucks were deployed during the response to the 9/11 attacks and during Hurricane Lili in 2002. The ability to have real time information on victims, volunteers, logistics, and financial information allows the American Red Cross to respond in an efficiently coordinated manner (Rudduck, 2002). Organizations operating in more remote locations or on smaller budgets must rely on other options. Figure 4 is a list of currently available communication options.

Short Wave or HFRadio VIHF Radio

High Frequency (HF) radio allows voice communication over medium to long range. It can connect to mobile phones and the international telephone network. Peripheral units connect with the international network via fixed short-wave radio stations. These systems can call other stations, link with Global Positioning Systems, provide FTP like data transfer, e-mail using true TCP/IP, and fax between stations. It is also possible to set up local radio-to-telephone links that in the medium to long term are cheaper to run than using the ground stations. Software systems do require experienced installation and operation, antennas, and significant electric current - normally a local main, generator power supply. battery

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VIHF Radio

Very High Frequency (VHF) is a short-range system for "line of sight" links, suitable for voice communication between mobile or hand portable transceivers over limited distances, and between mobiles and permanent sites. There is no access to international telecommunications networks. Setting up and operating a VHF system does not require prior knowledge. The transmitters use little power and can be operated from a vehicle battery.

Satellite

The InMarSat constellation of four geostationary satellites is used to provide high-quality direct-dial voice, fax, and telex communications to and from the international public telecommunications networks. Mobileto-mobile calls may also be made; but as this involves two satellite 'hops', the quality will be reduced and the charges will be higher. Recently, InMarSat has offered a service called Regional Broadband Global Area Network, or RBGAN. This is a satellite terminal allowing internet access.Iridium uses a constellation of 66 satellites in a near polar Low
Earth Orbit (LEO) with cross-link architecture. Iridium services include

worldwide voice, paging, Short Message Service (SMS), and data communications using lightweight, handheld phones and paging devices. Cellular Phones Cellular phones are increasing prevalent the world over. If a disaster happens in an area with cell infrastructure, but does not damage it, cell phones can be the most cost effective means of communication. If an event damages cellular towers, temporary towers can be erected. They can also be placed in refugee camps. During the tsunami, Nortel installed a system such as this to enable cellular communications in a ten-mile radius of Banda Aceh

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KEY LEARNING FROM THE SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL From this Supply chain model, it can be derive that the following are the key features of a Supply Chain necessary during a Disaster Situation Robust and Strong Supply Chain Agility (adjust & respond) Value (synergy of effectiveness & efficiency) Velocity (speedy recovery) Visibility

For a Disaster Management Supply chain model the lead time should be very less or minimal Logistics would need to have following characteristics: It must move freight and people by multiple modes (Land, Sea, Air), through different terminals. Distance travelled is often long. Transportation needs to be fast and flexible.

Procurement: The emergency suppliers should be always ready for delivering bulk emergency goods for disaster emergency. So here the concept of quick and effective supplier requirement is vital.

Concept of Cross Docking and in-transit merging should be used in the process of transportation so as to save time and delivering adequate food and medical good to the casualties

During a Disaster the main disturbance comes in the communication supply chain. So an efficient communication process should be used. Currently available

communication options are Short Wave or HFRadio, VIHF Radio, Satellite Communications etc. These options should be used to provide channel of communication for the panicked people. Disaster response plans should have the flexibility to handle adverse situations like low POD throughput and large number of victims because the variability of POD throughput and victims demand can be very high. It is very much important to use effective logistics software to keep track of the goods and progress of the rescue work. Extended Point of Delivery & Relief should be spacious, convenient to reach for the casualties
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Centralized Database means that there would be a single database of information that everybody would have access to. Information that would need to be stored in it would be: Inventory details Requirements at disaster site Tracking information Disaster related information

Human and financial resources need to be mobilized by various humanitarian organisations. Effective Assessment is also very much necessary. It comprises of activities like preparedness planning, survey and data collection, interpretation and forecasting, reporting and monitoring

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The effectiveness of disaster preparedness and response is difficult to estimate due to many uncertainties and dynamics involved in the supply chain, POD operations, progression of disasters and behaviour of disaster victims. Simulation is a useful tool for analyzing, testing and developing effective emergency response plans. Disaster relief supplies should be prepositioned close to the potential disaster area in order to have fast response and improved coverage. Disaster response plans should have the flexibility to handle adverse situations like low POD throughput and large number of victims because the variability of POD throughput and victims demand can be very high. There should also be a capability of handling shortage and surplus situations among PODs through more effective RSA dispatching and/or cross levelling among PODs. An effective communication and information system is also very much vital of effective disaster management.

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REFERENCES Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference M. D. Rossetti, R. R. Hill, B. Johansson, A. Dunkin and R. G. Ingalls, eds. SIMULATING DISTRIBUTION OF EMERGENCY RELIEF SUPPLIES FOR DISASTER RESPONSE OPERATIONS By Young M. Lee, Soumyadip Ghosh, Markus Ett. AHRQ. 2004. Bioterrorism and Other Public Health Emergencies: Tools and Models for Planning and Preparedness: Com-munity-Based Mass Prophylaxis, A Planning Guide for Public Health Preparedness, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. <http://www.ahrq.gov/research/cbmprophyl/cbmpro.htm#down> [accessed March 25, 2008]. Aaby, K., J. Hermann, C. Jordan, M. Treadwell., and K. Wood. 2006. Montgomery Countys Public Health Service Uses Operations Research to Plan Emergency Mass Dispensing and Vaccination Clinics, Interfaces, 36(6), 567-579. Baker, E. J. 1991. Hurricane Evacuation Behavior. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 9(2), 287-310. Bravata, D.M., Zaric, G.S., Holty, J-E.C., Brandeau, M.L., Wilhelm, E.R., McDonald, K.M., and D.K. Owens. 2006. Reduc-ing Mortality from Anthrax Bioterrorism: Costs and Benefits of Alternative Strategies for Stockpiling and Dispensing Medical and Pharmaceutical Supplies, Biosecurity and Bioterrorism, Biodefense Strategy, Practice and Science, 4, 244-262. Caggiano, K., J. Muckstadt, and J. Rappold. 2006. Integrated Real-Time Capacity and Inventory Allocation for Reparable Service Parts in a Two-Echelon Supply System. CDC. 2001. Smallpox Response Plan and Guidelines (Version 3.0). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). <http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/response-plan/index.asp> [accessed March 25, 2008]. Craft, D. L., L. M. Wein, and A. H. Wilkins. 2005. Analyzing Bioterror Response Logistics: The Case of Anthrax. Manage-ment Science. 51(5), 679-694. Ekici, A., P. Keshinocak, J. Swann. 2008. Pandemic Influenza Response, The Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, S. J. Mason, R. Hill, L. Moench, and O. Rose, eds. Graves, S., and S. Willems, 2003. Supply Chain Design: Safety Stock Placement and Supply Chain Configuration.
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