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The Arab Spring:

What it represents & implications for national security

(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)

Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co-PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong

The Arab Spring:

What it represents & implications for national security

(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)

Overview

The Arab Spring as a departure from extremism: Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity

The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool

A shift in people’s political and cultural values

Who participated in the Arab Spring?

Westernization, democracy, equality, & economic prosperity

Interest in Western technology

Positive implications for national security:

(1)

The Arab Spring’s focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies

(2)

toward political violence Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public

Data Collection Methods

Face-to-face interviews with nationally- representative samples

 

Survey Field Period

Sample Size

Egypt

June – August 2011

3,496

Iraq

January – February 2011

3,000

Lebanon

March – July 2011

3,034

Saudi Arabia

January – February 2011

2,005

Survey questionnaire available:

http://mevs.org/data/survey-summary/1004

People’s Explanations for the Arab Spring:

Movements for democracy & economic prosperity

70% 59% 60% 51% 50% 40% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10%
70%
59%
60%
51%
50%
40%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
9%
9%
9%
10%
4%
2%
3%
2%
0%
Freedom &
Economic
Islamic
Counter Western
influence
Part of a Western
conspiracy
Arab unity
democracy
equality &
government
prosperity
Egypt
Lebanon
% reporting main reaso n for the Arab Spring

%Relying on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources of Information

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

74% 69% 62% 49% 49% 28% 14% 14% 10% Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia Satellite TV
74%
69%
62%
49%
49%
28%
14%
14%
10%
Egypt
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Satellite TV
Internet
Mobile

Trends in values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis

National Identity

Which one of the following best describes you?

1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all

2. I am a Muslim, above all

3. I am an Arab, above all

Iraqi, Saudi, above all 2. I am a Muslim, above all 3. I am an Arab,

4. I am a Kurd, above all

5. Other

Egypt: % Expressing “I am an Egyptian, Muslim, or Arab, above all”

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

81% 50% 48% 8% 2% 1%
81%
50%
48%
8%
2%
1%

Above all, Egyptian

Above all, Muslim

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 81% 50% 48% 8% 2% 1% Above all,

2001

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 81% 50% 48% 8% 2% 1% Above all,

2011

Above all, Arab

Iraq: % Expressing “I am Iraqi, above all” 70% 63% 59% 60% 57% 56% 50%
Iraq: % Expressing “I am Iraqi, above all”
70%
63%
59%
60%
57%
56%
50%
40%
32%
30%
23%
20%
10%
0%
Dec.-2004
Apr.-2006
Mar.-2007
Jul.-2007
Dec.-2008
Jan.-2011

Saudi Arabia: % Expressing “I Am Saudi, Muslim, or Arab, above all”

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

75% 46% 44% 17% 9% 8%
75%
46%
44%
17%
9%
8%

Saudi, above all

Muslim, above all

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 75% 46% 44% 17% 9% 8% Saudi,

2003

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 75% 46% 44% 17% 9% 8% Saudi,

2011

Arab, above all

Trends in values

Religion & Politics

Is it very important, important, somewhat important, not important, or not at all important for a good government to 1.Implement only the Shari'a law? 2.Implement only the wishes of the people?

at all important for a good government to 1.Implement only the Shari'a law? 2.Implement only the

Egyptian Muslims:

People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

64% 48% 31% 28%
64%
48%
31%
28%

Shari'a law

Laws according to the people's wishes

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 64% 48% 31% 28% Shari'a law Laws according

2001

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 64% 48% 31% 28% Shari'a law Laws according

2011

Egypt: Which is better in a politician? Strong religious beliefs or strong commitment to national interests(2011)

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

22% 78%
22% 78%
22% 78%
22% 78%

22%

22% 78%
22% 78%
22% 78%
22% 78%

78%

22% 78%
22% 78%
22% 78%
22% 78%
22% 78%

Strong religious beliefs

Strong commitment to national interests

Iraq: % Agree that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics are separated

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

70% 69% 60% 55% 50% Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
70%
69%
60%
55%
50%
Dec.-2004
Apr.-2006
Oct.-2006
Dec.-2008
Jan.-2011

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari’a & in trust of religious institutions

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

84% 69% 46% 31%
84%
69%
46%
31%

Shari'a law very important

Trusting religious institutions a great deal

30% 20% 10% 0% 84% 69% 46% 31% Shari'a law very important Trusting religious institutions a

2003

30% 20% 10% 0% 84% 69% 46% 31% Shari'a law very important Trusting religious institutions a

2011

Egypt: Democracy vs. Strong head of gov’t (% Strongly agree)

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

84% 79% 68% 9% 5% 2%
84%
79%
68%
9%
5%
2%

Democratic political system

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 84% 79% 68% 9% 5% 2% Democratic political system

2001

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 84% 79% 68% 9% 5% 2% Democratic political system

2008

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 84% 79% 68% 9% 5% 2% Democratic political system

2011

Strong head of government

Iraq: % Strongly agree that form of government is good

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

59% 55% 53% 30% 22% 15% 12% 11% 11% 7% 5% 6% Democracy Islamic government
59%
55%
53%
30%
22%
15%
12%
11%
11%
7%
5%
6%
Democracy
Islamic government
Strong head of
government
Army rule
2004
Apr-06
2011

Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of government (% agree)

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

58% 71%
58% 71%
58% 71%
58% 71%

58%

58% 71%
58% 71%
58% 71%
58% 71%

71%

58% 71%
58% 71%
58% 71%
58% 71%
58% 71%

2003

2011

Trends in values

Attitudes toward gender equality

1. A wife must always obey her husband.

2. Men make better political leaders than women do.

3. University education is more important for boys than it is for girls.

Men make better political leaders than women do. 3. University education is more important for boys

Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for gender inequality

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

68% 60% 55% 47% 21% 16%
68%
60%
55%
47%
21%
16%

Wife must always obey her husband

Men make better political leaders

must always obey her husband Men make better political leaders 2000 2011 University education is more

2000

must always obey her husband Men make better political leaders 2000 2011 University education is more

2011

University education is more important for boys

Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree)

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

71% 69% 64% 63% 42% 33% 29% 25% 8%
71%
69%
64%
63%
42%
33%
29%
25%
8%

A wife should always obey her husband

Men make better political leaders

always obey her husband Men make better political leaders 2004 2006 2011 University education is more

2004

always obey her husband Men make better political leaders 2004 2006 2011 University education is more

2006

always obey her husband Men make better political leaders 2004 2006 2011 University education is more

2011

University education is more important for boys

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree)

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

61%

53% 44% 44%
53%
44%
44%

Men make better political leaders

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 61% 53% 44% 44% Men make better political leaders 2003

2003

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 61% 53% 44% 44% Men make better political leaders 2003

2011

A wife must always obey her husband

Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of protest participations (Correlation coefficients)

.30

.25

.20

.15

.10

.05

.00

.25 .25 .20 .18 .17 .16 .15 .14 .13 . 11 .11
.25
.25
.20
.18
.17
.16
.15
.14
.13
.
11
.11
(Correlation coefficients) .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 .00 .25 .25 .20 .18 .17 .16 .15

Egypt: Increased Westernization is tied to increased gender equality, democracy, and overall standard of living

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

95% 93% 90%
95%
93%
90%

Equality between women & men

Democracy

The overall standard of living

COUNTRY Would Be Better with Technology of the West (2011)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

90%

89%

85%

Technology of the West (2011) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

84%

Technology of the West (2011) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Technology of the West (2011) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Technology of the West (2011) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Egypt

Iraq

Lebanon

Saudi Arabia

Summary

1. Increase in national identity

2. Decline in support for the shari’a

3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt)

4. Positive implications for national security:

(1) The Arab Spring’s focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies toward political violence (2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public

attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public