The Arab Spring:

What it represents & implications for national security

(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)

Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co-PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong

The Arab Spring:

What it represents & implications for national security
(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)

Overview The Arab Spring as a departure from extremism: Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool A shift in peoples political and cultural values Who participated in the Arab Spring? Westernization, democracy, equality, & economic prosperity Interest in Western technology Positive implications for national security:
(1) The Arab Springs focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies toward political violence (2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public

Data Collection Methods

Face-to-face interviews with nationallyrepresentative samples
Survey Field Period Egypt June August 2011 Iraq January February 2011 Lebanon March July 2011 Saudi Arabia January February 2011 Sample Size 3,496 3,000 3,034 2,005

Survey questionnaire available:

http://mevs.org/data/survey-summary/1004

Peoples Explanations for the Arab Spring: Movements for democracy & economic prosperity
70%

% reporting main reason for the Arab Spring

60%

59% 51%

50%

40%

30%

25% 15%

20%

10%

9%

9% 2%

10% 2%

9% 3% 4%

0%

Freedom & democracy

Economic equality & prosperity

Islamic government Egypt

Counter Western Part of a Western influence conspiracy Lebanon

Arab unity

%Relying on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources of Information

80%
74%

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

14% 49%

69% 62%

49%

28%

14% 10%

10% 0% Egypt

Iraq Satellite TV Internet Mobile

Saudi Arabia

Trends in values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis National Identity

Which one of the following best describes you? 1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all 2. I am a Muslim, above all 3. I am an Arab, above all 4. I am a Kurd, above all 5. Other

Egypt: % Expressing I am an Egyptian, Muslim, or Arab, above all

90% 81% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Above all, Egyptian Above all, Muslim 2001 2011 Above all, Arab 8% 1% 2% 50% 48%

Iraq: % Expressing I am Iraqi, above all

70% 63% 60% 50% 40% 32% 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Mar.-2007 Jul.-2007 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011 59% 56% 57%

Saudi Arabia: % Expressing I Am Saudi, Muslim, or Arab, above all

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Saudi, above all Muslim, above all 2003 2011 Arab, above all 17% 9% 75%

46%

44%

8%

Trends in values
Religion & Politics
Is it very important, important, somewhat important, not important, or not at all important for a good government to 1.Implement only the Shari'a law? 2.Implement only the wishes of the people?

Egyptian Muslims: Peoples Wishes Versus the Sharia

70% 64% 60% 50% 40% 31% 30% 20% 10% 0% Shari'a law 2001 2011 Laws according to the people's wishes 28% 48%

Egypt: Which is better in a politician? Strong religious beliefs or strong commitment to national interests(2011)
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 22% 20% 10% 0% Strong religious beliefs Strong commitment to national interests 78%

Iraq: % Agree that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics are separated
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011 50% 60% 55% 70% 69%

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Sharia & in trust of religious institutions
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 31% 30% 20% 10% 0% Shari'a law very important 2003 2011 Trusting religious institutions a great deal 46% 69% 84%

Egypt: Democracy vs. Strong head of govt (% Strongly agree)

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2% 0% Democratic political system 2001 2008 2011 Strong head of government 9% 5% 68% 79% 84%

Iraq: % Strongly agree that form of government is good

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Democracy Islamic government 2004 Apr-06 Strong head of government 2011 Army rule 30% 22% 15% 11% 11% 12% 5% 6% 7% 59% 55% 53%

Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of government (% agree)

80% 71% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 58%

2003

2011

Trends in values
Attitudes toward gender equality
1. A wife must always obey her husband. 2. Men make better political leaders than women do. 3. University education is more important for boys than it is for girls.

Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for gender inequality

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 21% 20% 10% 0% Wife must always obey her husband Men make better political leaders 2000 2011 University education is more important for boys 16% 47% 68% 60% 55%

Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree)

80% 71% 70% 60% 50% 42% 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% A wife should always obey her husband Men make better political leaders 2004 2006 2011 University education is more important for boys 8% 29% 25% 64% 63% 69%

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree)

70% 61% 60% 53% 50%
44% 44%

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Men make better political leaders 2003 2011 A wife must always obey her husband

Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of protest participations (Correlation coefficients)

.30 .25 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 .00 .14 .15 .25 .20 .17 .18 .16 .13 .11 .11

Egypt: Increased Westernization is tied to increased gender equality, democracy, and overall standard of living
100% 90% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Equality between women & men Democracy The overall standard of living 93% 95%

COUNTRY Would Be Better with Technology of the West (2011)

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia 89% 85% 84% 90%

Summary
1. 2. 3. 4. Increase in national identity Decline in support for the sharia Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt) Positive implications for national security:
(1) The Arab Springs focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies toward political violence (2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public