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Good morning!
INTRODUCTION
Chad Weinman
INTRODUCTION
Chad Weinman
CALIBRATION
What, Why, How
WHAT?
a method for gauging and improving an individuals ability to make better estimates
WHY?
Heres a question to get us started: Who among us always gets complete & perfect quantitative data for their FAIR analyzes?
N obo dcomplete Who among us always gets y & perfect do quantitative data for their es! FAIR analyzes?
Heres a question to get this started:
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WHY?
FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision
FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision
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FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision
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FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision
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FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision
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NOT ACCURATE
t N o d. oo G
NOR PRECISE
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ACCURATE
ne fi s. m thi I h it w
NOT PRECISE
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ACCURATE
is is ! h d T oo G
& PRECISE
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NOT ACCURATE
t ! n s Do t h i e ik l
PRECISE
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OKAY:
We now are all comfortable again with the difference between accuracy and precision. But how and where does this directly relate in our fair modeling?
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LESSON:
As FAIR practitioners when we look to estimates and ranges, we should aim for accuracy with hint of precision. This is what decision-makers prefer. Its even what my wife prefers :)
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FAIR
Measuring Risk (quantitative)
Loves Uncertainty
FAIR
Measuring Risk (quantitative)
A DISTRIBUTION
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A DISTRIBUTION
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A DISTRIBUTION
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12
18
24
30
THE DISTRIBUTION
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12
18
24
30
MONTE CARLO
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12
18
24
30
MONTE CARLO
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12
18
24
30
!
0 6 12 18 24 30
!
0 6 12 18 24 30
!
0 6 12 18 24 30
!
0 6 12 18 24 30
!
0 6 12 18 24 30
FOOD 4 THOUGHT
Research in Decision Physiology starting in 70-80s have extensively shown few people are naturally calibrated. But theres hope!
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HOW
Calibration believe it or not is improved by practice. We learn whether we are by nature over-condent or under-condent.
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ONE
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TWO IN 1938 A BRITISH STEAM LOCOMOTIVE SET A NEW SPEED RECORD BY GOING HOW FAST? (IN MPH)
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THREE WHAT YEAR WAS FIRST SEASON IN THE MAJOR LEAGUE FOR THE CLEVELAND INDIANS?
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FOUR
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FIVE ON AVERAGE, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT EFFORTS IS SPENT ON DESIGN?
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SIX
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EIGHT
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NINE
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TEN FINAL QUESTION WHAT IS THE ALTITUDE OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN THAT I HAVE SUMMITED?
(IN FEET)
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?
Thank you! Chad Weinman chad@redpointrisk.com LinkedIn
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