WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT HYDROLOGY AND HYDROGEOLOGY POSTGRADUATE STUDIES PROGRAMME 2003-2004 http://www.ihw.ethz.ch/hydrologie http://dgrwww.epfl.

ch/HYDRAM/enseignement/postgrade/

STOCHASTIC MODELLING, HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING AND FLOOD RISK 8 - 19 March 2004

26 - 30 April 2004 (for regular students only) Institute of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Hnggerberg, Zrich, Switzerland

8 MARCH (MONDAY)
INTRODUCTORY LECTURE CONTENTS Course introduction Presenting topics of stochastic modelling, hydrological forecasting and flood risk 9:50 - 10:20 STOCHASTIC MODELS IN HYDROLOGY CONTENTS Stochastic methods in hydrology, introduction The use of stochastic models for simulation and forecasting of hydrological processes Dependent and independent variables Autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) processes Examples and applications 10:45 - 17:00 TIME: 645 MIN TIME: 30 MIN PROF. PAOLO BURLANDO Inst. of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zrich Switzerland paolo.burlando@ethz.ch PROF. JOSE D. SALAS Dept. of Civil Engineering Colorado State University USA

salas@engr.colostate.edu

9 MARCH (TUESDAY)
STOCHASTIC MODELS IN HYDROLOGY (CONTINUATION) CONTENTS Single site and multisite models Models of long term persistence Examples and applications Basic concepts of artificial neural networks Examples and applications 9:00 - 15:15 LONG AND MID TERM FORECASTING CONTENTS Management requirements for forecasting in hydrology Purposes of forecasting, classification of forecasts Stochastic models for long and mid term forecasting SAMSF software application examples 15:30 - 17:00 TIME: 245 MIN 1/6 TIME: 645 MIN PROF. JOSE D. SALAS PROF. JOSE D. SALAS

10 MARCH (WEDNESDAY)
STOCHASTIC MODELS IN HYDROLOGY: POINT PROCESS MODELS OF RAINFALL CONTENTS Basic concepts of temporal rainfall modelling Cluster-based models (calibration, verification) Examples and applications 9:00 - 11:30 LONG MEMORY STOCHASTIC MODELS CONTENTS Long memory in hydrological series: the Hurst effect Long memory models 11:30 - 12:15 TIME: 145 MIN TIME: 345 MIN PROF. PAOLO BURLANDO Inst. of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zrich Switzerland paolo.burlando@ethz.ch DR. ANTONIO CANCELLIERE Inst. of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Water Resources Management University of Catania Italy acance@iiiga.ing.unict.it DR. ANTONIO CANCELLIERE

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISATION AND STOCHASTIC MODELLING OF DROUGHTS CONTENTS Basic concepts (drought definition, indeces) Return period of droughts and regional droughts Stochastic modelling of droughts Examples and applications 13:45 - 17:00 TIME: 445 MIN

11 MARCH (THURSDAY)
FLOOD FORECASTING: AN INTRODUCTION CONTENTS The structure of a flood forecasting system Real time monitoring and predicition of rainfall and runoff Prerequisites of a flood warning system 9:00 - 9:45 TIME: 145 MIN PROF. PAOLO BURLANDO Institute of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zrich Switzerland paolo.burlando@ethz.ch PROF. PAOLO BURLANDO

STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL FORECASTING CONTENTS State-of-the-art temporal models for rainfall Stochastic models for real time rainfall based on autoregressive schemes Use of radar data in rainfall modelling 9:45 - 11:30 TIME: 245 MIN

RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR FLOOD FORECASTING CONTENTS The (historical) development of rainfall-runoff models for forecasting The use of rainfall-runoff models in flood forecasting Examples and applications 11:30 - 17:00 TIME: 545 MIN

PROF. EZIO TODINI Dept. of Earth Sciences and Environmental Geology University of Bologna Italy todini@tin.it

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12 MARCH (FRIDAY)
COUPLING OF RAINFALL FORECASTING MODELS AND RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR FLOOD FORECASTING CONTENTS Concepts of coupling rainfall forecasting models and rainfall-runoff models in flood forecasting The definition of a real time flood forecasting problem (scale, advance time, accuracy, benefits, treatment of uncertainty) The use of real-time forecasting models (reliability) 9:00 - 10:30 TIME: 245 MIN PROF. EZIO TODINI Dept. of Earth Sciences and Environmental Geology University of Bologna Italy

todini@tin.it PROF. EZIO TODINI

CASE STUDY ILLUSTRATION: FORECASTING IN MESOSCALE CATCHMENTS CONTENTS Problems of operational real time flood forecasting systems Reduction of uncertainty 10:45 - 12:15 DISCUSSION (OPTIONAL) CONTENTS Discussion about problems related to flood forecasting 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 245 MIN TIME: 245 MIN

PROF. EZIO TODINI

15 MARCH (MONDAY)
FLOOD FORECASTING IN LARGE RIVERS CONTENTS Hydrodynamic flow simulation in large river systems Assumptions, simplifications, models Examples and applications (EFFS, Nile River) 9:00 - 11:30 TIME: 345 MIN DR. JAAP KWADIJK Delft Hydraulics Netherlands

jaap.kwadijk@wldelft.nl DR. JAAP KWADIJK

REAL-TIME PREDICTION OF FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION CONTENTS Models for real-time prediction of floodplain inundation Examples and applications 11:30 - 12:15 STRUCTURE OF A WARNING SYSTEM CONTENTS Elements of a flood warning system Knowledge transfer to a flood warning system Prediction and uncertainty in rainfall 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 245 MIN TIME: 145 MIN

PROF. FRANCO SICCARDI Dept. of Environmental Engineering University of Genoa Italy franco@diam.unige.it

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STRUCTURE OF A CIVIL PROTECTION PLAN CONTENTS What is a civil protection system? Sources of data, data management Example of the Italian civil protection system 15:30 - 17:00 TIME: 245 MIN

PROF. FRANCO SICCARDI

16 MARCH (TUESDAY)
CASE STUDY ILLUSTRATION: 1994 AND 2000 PIEDMONT FLOODS CONTENTS Case study examples in the Po River Basin 9:00 - 10:30 FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING CONTENTS Decision making approaches Why models are not sufficient? The need for Decision Support Systems 10:45 - 12:15 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS) CONTENTS Decision support system architecture A case study of Lake Verbano 13:45 - 17:00 TIME: 445 MIN TIME: 245 MIN TIME: 245 MIN PROF. RODOLFO SONCINI-SESSA Dept. of Electronics and Information Politecnico di Milano Italy soncini@elet.polimi.it PROF. RODOLFO SONCINI-SESSA PROF. FRANCO SICCARDI

17 MARCH (WEDNESDAY)
INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK ESTIMATION CONTENTS Introduction: from sustainable development to risk management Risk management: controlling the residual risk Hydrological inputs for dike and reservoir design Risk-based design and handling of uncertainty 9:00 - 12:15 TIME: 445 MIN PROF. ERICH PLATE Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management University of Karlsruhe Germany

erich.plate@bau-verm.uni-karslruhe.de DIPL.ING. ANDREA POZZI Niederer and Pozzi AG Uznach Switzerland pozzi@nipo.ch

FLOODPLAIN PLANNING AND FLOOD PROTECTION CONTENTS Assessment of failure points in floodplain planning Protection targets Example of floodplain planning and development 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 245 MIN

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OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT SESSION

DR. PETER MOLNAR Institute of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zrich Switzerland molnar@ihw.baug.ethz.ch

CONTENTS Discussion of the stochastic modelling assignment

15:45 - 17:00

TIME: 245 MIN

18 MARCH (THURSDAY)
FLOOD PROTECTION AND MITIGATION, STRUCTURAL DEFENSE CONTENTS Flood protection: hazard maps Flood protection: differentiated protection targets Structural measures: basic considerations Structural measures: examples 9:00 - 12:15 TIME: 445 MIN PROF. HANS-ERWIN MINOR VAW ETH Zrich Switzerland

minor@vaw.baug.ethz.ch DR. HANSPETER STAFFLER Water Authority, Hydraulic Structures Bolzano Italy hanspeter.staffler@provinz.bz.it DR. HANSPETER STAFFLER

BASIN SLOPE PROTECTION WITH BIOENGINEERING CONTENTS Slope protection: theory and concepts Bioengineering methods, examples to be completed 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 245 MIN

FLOOD PROTECTION: RIVER TRAINING WITH BIONEGINEERING CONTENTS History of soil bioengineering and river training Materials, design, samples of constructions Some newer concepts and constructions to be completed 15:30 - 17:00 TIME: 245 MIN

19 MARCH (FRIDAY)
FLOOD VULNERABILITY AND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTENTS Quantification of flood impact and hazard Methods to influence vulnerability of human lives, infrastructure, industry and commerce, residential areas and agriculture Methods of calculation 9:00 - 10:30 TIME: 245 MIN DR. ARMIN PETRASCHECK Federal Office for Water and Geology Biel Switzerland

armin.petrascheck@bwg.admin.ch DIPL.ING. ANDREAS GTZ Federal Office for Water and Geology Biel Switzerland

FLOOD PROTECTION: GUIDELINES FROM PUBLIC AUTHORITIES CONTENTS Technical guidelines and administrative regulation for flood protection Swiss Federal Law on flood protection 1993 and international guidelines National Platform for Natural Hazards (PLANAT) 10:45 - 11:30 TIME: 145 MIN

andreas.goetz@bwg.admin.ch

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FLOODS - AN INSURABLE RISK CONTENTS Trends in natural catastrophe losses Historical and recent flood losses Principles of insurability Advances in flood risk assessment in the (re)insurance sector The private-public partnership 11:30 - 12:15 TIME: 145 MIN

JENS MEHLHORN Flood Group Swiss Reinsurance Company, Zrich Switzerland

jens.mehlhorn@swissre.ch M.SC. JOHN HARDING ISDR Secretariat United Nations, Geneva Switzerland

THE ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY TO FLOODS CONTENTS The vulnerability to floods on a global scale Flood risk in developing countries: what can we do about it? Examples 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 245 MIN

harding@un.org

26 - 29 MARCH
INDIVIDUAL WORK ON ASSIGNMENTS

30 MARCH (FRIDAY)
DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION OF ASSIGNMENTS (EPFL) CONTENTS Individual presentations of assigned projects Discussion of assigments DR. PETER MOLNAR Inst. of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zrich Switzerland molnar@ihw.baug.ethz.ch

10:00-17:00

TIME: 6 HRS

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