The Hazy Road Ahead

I am not a scientist, but an activist, so I am going to explore the issues we face in

layman’s language. The perspective will be to try to summarize what the problem is from
the point of view of understanding its genesis, its context and its trajectory today. This is
necessary because one needs a ‘map’, when there is so much information and
disinformation jumbled together, and the consequences or risks so significant. And this
map must try to take into account forces that are shaping the present trajectory. As the
very term ‘Global Warming’ suggests, it is best to look at this at a global level because we
live in a very interlinked world. With that backdrop, we will try to explore why the road
ahead is so ‘murky’ and what might lie ahead based on the choices we make.

Let us start with what is known and clear.

Global Warming – A brief summary

The earth is warmer than it has been for several centuries and is now on average about
0.76 degrees C warmer on both land and sea relative to the period 1860-1900. There is
also a very large consensus now, as to what has caused this to occur, i.e. increasing
concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere caused by human activity
over the last two centuries, as the period of denial is fortunately coming to an end.
Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans, there is a near certainty that at least a
further increase of about 0.5-8 degrees is already baked in. These average
temperatures may seem small, but historical records show that a difference of only about
6 degrees in the average temperature separates us from the ice ages. Not only are the
effects of emissions of the past few years yet to be felt, emission levels have been
intensifying in recent years. Worldwide emissions from fossil fuels was 21.39 billion
tonnes (BT) in 1990 (the year usually regarded as the benchmark to measure cuts), was
22.97 BT in 1997 when the Kyoto meeting happened, 26.40 BT over 2000-2005, and
reached 28.19 BT in 2005, when the Kyoto Protocol was finally ratified. There is also
increasing concern, that many feedbacks in the climate system will flip their character in
a way, which might result in a runaway rise in GHG and consequently cause a
temperature escalation, which would not be preventable, before a new system state or
pattern is reached.

That this evolving situation may pose tremendous risk to life as we know it on this planet
is slowly getting better understood. While it is difficult to correlate any specific weather
event with any certainty to this warming of the Earth, there is increasing evidence of
systemic changes that are underway. Some of the notable ones include glacial retreat,
shrinking of the Arctic, and worldwide sea level rise. The consequences of this climate
change is already being felt in species extinctions, initial submergence of coastal lands,
disease vectors, amount and pattern of precipitation, and frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events. But what has been experienced may only be a pale shadow of
what may follow, given that coastal densities are high globally, and the importance of
water for large agriculture linked population in ‘developing’ countries, as well as for
essential daily use. We all also know from recent memory, the kind of havoc that extreme
weather events can cause.

Arun Bidani, Delhi Platform

11-43098327, bidani.arun@gmail.com
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 The Hazy Road Ahead

But the temperature of the Earth and its consequences are just a reflection of its ‘health’,
as it is for human beings. Perhaps we have focused on it, and on the emissions, as they
are comparatively easier to measure. The larger question is how we got into this
quagmire. And that inevitably leads us to the relationship human beings have with
nature and with each other. For centuries, we have been using nature as a dumping
ground, without any attention to the consequences of our actions. There has been scarcely
any thought to creating systems which produce minimum waste, and capture and recycle
what waste they do create, in the increasingly ‘sophisticated’ industrial systems that
humans have built, particularly in the so called ‘advanced’ countries, or of reflecting the
true costs of production.

Making a Map
While this might not be the forum to explore some basic but complex connections, I feel
they are important enough for us to touch on them. One of them is the material legacy
previous generations have bequeathed to us by their efforts i.e. the accumulation of
capital, after it became possible, over history. The other is the differentiation in human
society. Whether they rose independently or were linked at birth is a moot point, for they
have certainly got inextricably linked over time, though each has its own manifestations.

At the risk of belabouring the obvious, let us see why they are important in the context of
Global warming. Most people would agree that the problem originates in how we have
become organized to meet our needs, i.e. how capital is currently deployed for production
and ancillary support and how the issues related to Global Commons is perceived. Also,
most observers would concur that the problem is caused by the ‘rich’, nations or people,
and the consequences will be borne by the ‘poor’. This can only be the result of the
disparities of power between the two sections.

Inequality, particularly inequality of power, is not new to human society, for it has had
many faces, over the course of human existence. But even a cursory examination of
history suggests that disparities of power always result in consequences which favour the
powerful and demeaning and exploitation of the ‘other’, sometimes for extended periods,
because they create systems and structures that expand and sustain that inequality.

Let us just take a very brief look at human beings’ relationship with nature. All life tries
to adapt to its environment and to shape the environments to its needs. But as the power
of human beings has grown vis-à-vis nature, because of the accumulated material and
intellectual capital, so has the respect for nature diminished. There has been no ‘balance’.
Human society has ruthless intervened and exploited nature wherever it could, restricted
only by its own limitations, always rationalizing it. We can only hope that outraged
‘nature’ does not have the last laugh.

When we examine human beings relationship with each other, the story is no different.
Whether we study the history of nations or of race, caste, class and gender we see a
similar pattern. First, the needs of the dominant ‘class’ become paramount, and the
dominated become only instruments to service them. Second, the appropriation of ‘value’
generated by the toiling multitudes is made invisible, while the ‘generosity’ of the people
Arun Bidani, Delhi Platform
11-43098327, bidani.arun@gmail.com
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at the top of the hierarchy is highlighted at every opportunity. Third, every attempt is
made to colonize the psyche of the dominated with the superiority of the dominators and
to suggest that they live in an imperfect but best possible system, to which there is no
alternative. This is only possible when there is hegemony in the social discourse.

Let us now turn to the present and the other part of the equation. Capital, at a global level,
is not only invested in a worldwide production and distribution web, but as part of its
DNA is constantly looking for opportunities to grow. But even apart from this material
basis, there are huge flows of financial capital across national borders, which actually
dwarf trade flows, in a restless desire to grow, like its physical counterpart, which have
consequences that are often not obvious. The drives of capital, with its desire for saving,
and leveraging it for its expansion, is a vitally important social actor, which appears
sometimes as if it is a totally independent, indifferent to human beings, except for using
them as a vehicle for its own ends.

Capitalism has by expanding its reach within society, and between societies, which were
separated from each other, brought about both an increasing awareness of inequality, as
well as sharply intensified it. This is because capital accumulation is appropriated by
owners and managers of capital, while the rest of human beings make choices in the
contexts capitalism creates. In order to facilitate its growth, it tries to create an
environment friendly to it, and because of this concomitant inequality, it is able to
permeate every nook and corner, directly or indirectly. It generates a culture where
everybody is encouraged to promote their own interest.

The production systems that therefore result in this regime, focused as it is on

maximization of output and profits, and where it is so powerful vis-à-vis other social
actors, will inevitably lead to exploiting resources on a world scale, and to give little or
no attention to the waste it creates, systemically and individually. It also leads to a short
term horizon in all sectors, because it needs flexibility to deploy capital, where time may
bring the greatest opportunity. Capital certainly improves human productivity, and even
makes it possible to accomplish goals, which might be otherwise out of reach or
impossible, and also promotes efficiency, but all these are subordinate to growth of
profits.

A word on governments, which are supposed to be neutral umpires, which through

regulationare supposed to encourage those activities which promote socially desirable
outcomes, and inhibit those that don’t. But governments are vitally interested in the
growth and preservation of their own power, which can only be sustained by economic
activity that is hostage to those who manage and control capital, which always have
options of deploying their capital elsewhere. The counterbalancing forces of political
parties and elections, which are supposed to reflect majority interest, where democratic
institutions exist, are too weak, structurally and otherwise given the inequality in society,
to create, a ‘level playing field’.

Coming Back to the Terrain

Arun Bidani, Delhi Platform

11-43098327, bidani.arun@gmail.com
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We need not go any further than the issue of Global Warming itself. Here is credible
evidence, sustained by a conservative scientific community in the shape of IPCC reports,
that the risk to ‘poorer’ countries, and even more to ‘weaker’ sections within these
countries, is grave and rising. Yet it hardly draws any response commensurate to the
danger, apart from political posturing, while reflecting and protecting the interests of
those who would be adversely impacted by the necessary changes needed. This becomes
possible only because capitalism fragments and weakens the majority, though as we can
see there is resistance at many levels. In poor third world countries, the immediate
concerns about livelihood become more pressing, making it difficult to focus or engage
with a wider context or the future.

What we should be trying to achieve is also reasonably clear. In a narrow sense, we need
to bring the carbon emissions down to the absorption capacity of the earth. But since, we
have been living beyond our means for at least a couple of centuries; we have
accumulated a debt to nature, which needs to be paid off. If we continue in our profligate
ways, we raise the risks to large sections of the world, perhaps in this lifetime itself.
Certainly, we threaten the ability of the next and succeeding generations, particularly of
those who have been forced so far to under-consume, to any kind of decent life, not to
mention the life of other species that we will extinguish. The implication of this is fairly
obvious, we need to bring down the emissions dramatically and we need to do that now

As the draft resolution of the 2007 Symposium on Global Warming at the Indian Social
Science Congress in Mumbai states ‘the current crisis is a direct consequence of the
pattern of capitalist development - with its inherent tendency of maximizing profits
and in the process, exploiting all natural resources on a world scale. This has
created affluent minorities within each society, generating ever-increasing demands
and un-sustainable levels of consumption that has led to this exponential rise of
greenhouse gases in our atmosphere’.

Since the consumption, both systemic and individual, is closest in the causal chain to our
enquiry, perhaps we should turn our attention to it.

The first item that one notices immediately is defense. Whatever may have been its
origins, it owes its place today largely to how we are organized as nation states and the
insecurity it engenders, and would have little place in a sane society. Yet a very
significant amount of activity and emissions globally is linked to it.

In terms of the largest carbon footprint, it has to be the generation and consumption of
electrical power which accounts for 24% of total emissions. Before we look at the
production, let us look at the consumption side. USA, with a quarter of India’s
population, consumes about 4 times as much electricity (16 times per capita). Within
India, though I do not have the exact data, Delhi uses about 3-4 times more per capita
than the national average, which itself is pulled up by the urban population, and of other
major metropolitan cities in it. A drill-down of electrical consumption of the world, USA-
Europe-China-India, urban-rural India, Metropolitan cities – Delhi-Mumbai-Calcutta-
Chennai would have been more insightful but I don’t have ready access to it.
Arun Bidani, Delhi Platform
11-43098327, bidani.arun@gmail.com
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If we examine the production side, 75% of power requirements of the world were met by
fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) in 2005 and only 0.5% by solar power directly and 0.3% by
wind. So, under capitalism, renewable energy is clearly not as profitable as other energy
sources. Pricing in markets, that vital institution of capitalism, reflects how much of the
burden can be shifted to nature or the people at large, in what economists call
‘externalities’.

I have just taken the example of electrical power, but the pattern is pretty similar if we
look at all the other major contributors to emissions. Consumption is driven by the upper
and upper-middle classes in metros of the world, while the supply is constrained by what
is most profitable, and therefore not one which is eco-friendly.

The Road Ahead

Growth is the mantra and mantle of capitalism. It is through it, that it manages to ‘hook’
people into the belief that through it, while inequality may remain, they have a hope of
realizing at least some of their needs and aspirations. But people may become impatient,
so ‘slow’ growth will not do, it needs pace so that it can fuel the dreams. But ‘fast
growth’ needs ‘faster accumulation’, which can only be possible by extraction of
surpluses, the flows of which may not be always visible, from large sections of human
society or from the earth itself. But for this fast growth of production to sustain, it is
equally important that demand be created to clear the market. It is not accidental that
Chinese and Indian societies, which have currently the highest saving and therefore
growth rates, have also got the highest levels of forced under-consumption of very large
segments of their own population, while encouraging lavish consumption by their
affluent sections.

It is therefore amply clear that the global paradigms of development and their reflections
in the production of goods and services are tied to the high and rising emissions and
therefore risks that we have already outlined. Certainly, technological improvements or
breakthroughs are possible that may ameliorate the situation in some contexts and
perhaps on the margin be helpful. But there is just not very credible evidence that it can
address the core issues at all, and certainly not even global warming, defined in a narrow
sense, fast enough to minimize the risks.

The only real roads that can take us ahead can be dramatic reduction in systemic and
individual consumption that give us time to build a different kind of society, in which
there are more balanced relationships between human beings and nature and each other
and where if there is any risk to any part of the community anywhere, it is perceived as a
risk to the whole. And for that equity has to be at the core, both for the short, intermediate
and long term. But we live in age of great disparities of power. Surely, those who gain the
most, and the significant sections that have been co-opted, will resist any change in
dispensation for they believe they can control or adapt to any conceivable shock or
turmoil in human society, and even benefit from it?

Arun Bidani, Delhi Platform

11-43098327, bidani.arun@gmail.com
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 The Hazy Road Ahead

However, capitalism now faces massive and unprecedented challenges. First, the falling
magnitude of profit, despite the recent rising profit margins, in the major developed
countries, has led to policies that have undermined the global financial underpinnings
over the last century, which is beginning to threaten the support for it in its home bases.
This crisis is quite mature and the tremors for it are already being felt. The second is the
waste generation crisis, of which Global Warming is only the most visible. We have
already seen how serious this crisis is, from the attention it is now getting globally. The
third is the resource crisis, of which Peak Oil is only the most notable manifestation. And
energy being the most critical and vital link of human activity and society, it is hard to
overstate its importance for sustaining the present system. Fourth, is the transition crisis
from a unipolar to multipolar face for capitalism, which while not changing its essential
nature, can cause great turmoil as different nations jockey for greater control over global
affairs in general and natural resources in particular.

At a minimum, it is hard to see how the growth, which is so critical to its legitimacy, can
be sustained in the face of these multiple crises. It is very likely that more and more
people in the First, Second and Third world will begin to recognize the mirage of its
promises, the damage it is inflicting and that no degree of reform will enable it to take us
to the just, equitable, humane society we want.

But capitalism has proved a resilient system surviving many challenges, and I am no
believer in automatic collapses. Also, crises can have positive as well as negative
outcomes. What is needed is social creativity, at multiple levels and diverse ways, to
explore alternatives that may well become the seeds of tomorrow. But before we are able
to do that, we will have to confront a perceptual block in our mindset. It is one of the
ironies of history that the human journey marked by a desire to not accept the world as a
given, but to adapt it to its evolving needs, has reached a juncture where for most
humans, human society, including its inheritance, and its institutions are outside
their control. For as we try to struggle with possible trajectories, it is vital we focus on
creating an environment in which we can believe that it is possible for us to engage with
reality, choose and shape our future.

Summing up then, the problem of GW, defined in a narrow way, is relatively clear. Many
people would also agree with the goal of aligning our emission levels with earth’s
absorption capacity quickly to reduce risk to human beings and other life. Perhaps they
would also concur that this requires major change from the context in which we find
ourselves today, particularly to address issues of economic, political and social equity
which are a must for fair decision making. But how to explore alternatives to the current
system and get that reflected in material and cultural reality while situated in a
weakening, but still powerful capitalism, is where the difficulties lie, which is why the
road ahead is so murky.

Arun Bidani, Delhi Platform

11-43098327, bidani.arun@gmail.com
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