r.

ii1 PEAT
I~MARWICK

Technical Appendix Final Report

Prefeasibility Study of Very High Speed Rail Intercity Passenger Service Between Montreal and New York via Vermont

submitted to New York State Department of Transportation and Vermont Agency of Transportation in cooperation with Le Ministere des Transports du Quebec and La Commission d'Initiative et de Developpement Economiques de Montreal (CIDEM) March 1985
Submitted by: Peat, Marwick,Mitchell & Co. in association with Gellman Research Associates, Inc. and Transportation and Distribution Associates, Inc.

r-lPEAT

I~MARWJCK

Technical Appendix Final Report

Prefeasibility Study of Very High Speed Rail Intercity Passenger Service Between Montreal and New York via Vermont

submitted to New York State Department of Transportation and Vermont Agency of Transportation in cooperation with Le Ministere des Transports du Quebec and La Commission d'Initiative et de Developpement Economiques de Montreal (CIDEM) March 1985
Submitted by: Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. in association with Gellman Research Associates, Inc. and Transportation and Distribution Associates, Inc.

'IABLE'

OF

CON'l"ENTS

5ection
I

INTRODucr ION
1.

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 PLANS AND SCENARIOS 11.1 11.1

11.1

Background 2. Objective 3. Scope OPERATING

II

VHSR

1. Overview

of Concept 2. Route Alignment 3. Description of Scenarios 4. Implementation Schedule

11.3 I1.S 111.1 111.1 111.5

111.10 I I I. 21

III

'l'RAVELANALYSIS

of VHSH Corridor 2. EXisting Travel in the Corridor 3. Travel Demand and Modal Split Esti@ation Process 4. Travel Demand ana VHSR Projections
IV ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSBSSMENT

1. Description

IV.l IV.l IV. J IV.16 V.l V.l V.2 V.2 V.2 V.6 V.6 V.1S

1. Economic

Impact Analysis 2. Quantitative Economic Irnpa c t Estimates 3. Qualitative Economic Impact Estimates REVENUE AND COST ASSESSMENT

VHSR

Analysis Approacn 2. Revenues 3. Operating and Maintenance Costs 4. Net Operating Income 5. Capital Costs 6. Cash Flow Projections 7. Implications VI ISSUES PERTAINING TO THE IMPLEMENTATION AND OPERATION OF VHSR SERVICE 1. Institutional Issues 2. Financial Issues 3. Legal Issues 4. Environmental Issues 5. Customs and Immigration

1. Financial

VIol VIol V1.2 V1.J V1.3 VI.4

Issues

TABLE

OF

CONTENTS

(Continued)

Section
VII P~8LIMINA~Y
1.

FEASIBILITY

ASSESSMENT

VII.l
VII:l VII. 3

Assessment of Additional Important Factors Affecting VHS~ Service 2. Preliminary Feasibility Assessment

APPEtWICES

A. Counties
Each

and Zone

Census

Divlsions

in A.l

B. Calibration
Hodel C. Counties Impact

Coefficients

of Cross-Elasticity B.l

Included Analysis and

in Regional

Economlc C.l

D. Assumptions

Sources

of

Information

D.l

ii

LIST UF EXHIBITS

Exhibit 11-1 11-2 11-3 111-1 111-2 111-3 111-4 111-5 Proposed Rail VHSR Corridor to Station Fares Travel Times

11.2
11.5 11.6 111.2 111.3

Station VHSR

One-Way Regional Zone

Boundaries

System Estimates 1982 Travel By Mode

Population Estimated

111.4 111.9

Growth in Travel Demand for New York-AlDany and New YorK-Montreal Interchanges Calibration dodels 1982 Service Constants

111.12

111-6

(e) for New YorK-Albany

111.16 III.lb Projections Pro]ection-111.25 111.23

111-7 111-8 111-9

Characteristics Person Trip

Intra-Corridor

Scenario 1 - Baseline Intra-Corridor Trips

Ridersnip

111-10

Scenario 1 - daseline Ridership ProJection: Intra-Corridor Trips--Mode Split by Purpose-Forecast Year 2005 Scenario 1 - Baseline--Intra-Corridor i,lodeor 'rr avel 'rr ips by Scenario Business Scenario Scenario Travel 1 BUSlness

111.27

111-11

111.28 l~on111.30 Estiwates Induced 111.35 111.32

111-12

rr ips
1 1

Baseline--Intra-Corridor by Hode of Travel Baseline--External Trip of

111-13 111-14

Baseline--Estiwates

111-15

Scenario 1 - Base11ne--Inauced Recreation Travel to and frow Year 2005 VHSR Kidership--Scenario

Tourism and Vermont--Forecast 111.37 111.39

111-16

1 - 3aseline--l~95

iii

LIST OF EXHIBITS

(Continued)

Exhibit
III-17 111-18 III-19 111-20 I I 1-21 111-22 111-23 111-24 111-25 111-26
III-27

VHSR Ridership--Scenario

1 - Baseline--2005 Travelers

III.40

Scenario 1 - Baseline--On-Board Between VHSR Stations

111.41 111.43 111.44 111.45 111.46 111.48 111.49 111.50

Scenario 2 - Baseline With Socioeconomic Growth-Ridership Projection--Intra-Corridor Trips VHSR Ridership--Scenario 2 - Baseline With Socioeconomic Growth--1995 VHSR Rldership--Scenario 2 - Baseline with Socioeconomic Growth--2005 VHSR Ridership--Scenar io 3 - Baseline Travel Growtl1--l995, 2005 ~li t h No

VHSR Ridership Projection for Intra-Corridor Trips--Fare Sensitivity Anaiysis for 1~9S VHSR Ridership Projection for Intra-Corridor Trips--Fare Sensitivity Analysis for 2005 External Trip Estimates Travel--Forecast Year

VHSR Tourism and Recreation 2005 VHSR Ridership--Scenario Increase--1995 VHSR Ridership--Scenario Increase--2005 VHSR Ridership--Scenario Fares--1995 VHSR Ridership--Scenario Fares--2005 VHSR Ridership Interchanges

111.51 111.52

4 - Energy Price

111-28 111-29 III-3U 111-31 IV-l

4 - Energy Price 111.53

5 - Reduced

Air 111.54

5 - Reduced Air 111.55 Trips- All 111.57 Impacts IV.4 1V.6

Summary--Annual

Areas of Principal

Economic Development

IV-2

Total Requirements to support $1 of Final Demand for New Railroad Construction

iv

LIS'i'

OF eXHIBITS

(Continued)

13xhibit
IV-J
IV-4 Economic Annual Impacts Economic of VriSH Construction Impacts ~age of VHSH Operations IV.8

IV.9
IV.lO

IV-5 IV-6
IV-7

Employment and Construction Expenditures ~conomic Effects

Estimates

for VHSR

per

Person

Trip VHSR Travel oy Region

IV.12
IV.13 IV.14

Impacts of VHSR

of Induced on Tourism

IV-8 IV-9 IV-lO IV-ll

in ve rmon t

ECOnOIi1ic Liupa c t s of 'I'ori sm and Kecreation u in Vermont from VrlSR-Induced Travel and Development Summary of Post-Construction Economic Impacts

IV.lS IV.17

Preliminary Qualitative of Impacts--Bur1ington, Preliminary Qualitative of Impacts--l'lontreal Preliminary Qualitative of Impacts--Albany

Assessment VT Assessment

of Strength IV.l~ of Strength IV.20

IV-12

IV-l3

Assessment

of Strengtn IV.21 of Strength

IV-14

Preliminary Qualitative Assessment of Impacts--New York City VHSR VHSR VHSR Operating Operating Net Revenues and Maintenance Income

IV.22
V.3

V-I

V-2
V-3

Costs

V.4 V.5

Operating

V-4
V-5 V-6

VHSR Capital Costs for the Baseline Scenario and Reduced Infrastructure Scenarios Capital Expenditures by Year 1 - Baseline--Ridership Based ~xternal, and Induced Demand--

V. 7 V.13

Cash Flow--Scenario on Intra-Corridor, Nan-Taxable uonds

V.9

LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit

(Continued)

v-7

Ca sn F low - - Sce n a ria 2 - Bas e 1 i n e ~H t h Sac i0 econ 0 m ic Growtn--~idership Based on Intra-Corridor, ~xternal, and Induced Deliland--L'ion-'l'axable Bonds Cash Flow--Scenario 3 - Ba~eline ~itn No Travel Growth--~idership Based on Intra-Corridor, External, and Induced Dewand--Uon-'l'axaul.e Bonds Cash Flow--Scenario 4 - Energy Price Increase-Ridership Based on Intra-Corridor, External, and Induced Demand--Non-Taxable Bonds Cash Flow--Scenario 5 - ~educed Air Fares--Hidership Based on Intra-Corridor, External, and Induced Demand--Non-Taxab1e Bonds Cash Flow--Scenario 6 - Reduced Infrastructure: Electric Propulsion--Hidership Based on IntraCorridor, External, and Induced Demand--NonTaxable Bonds Cash Flow--Scenario 7 - Reduced Infrastructure: Turbine Propulsion--Ridersnip Based on IntraCorridor, External, and Inauced Demand--NonTaxable Bonds

V. lU

V-i3

V. 11

V-9

V.l2

V-IO

V.13

V-l1

V.14

V-12

V.1S

V-13

Cash Flow--Scenario 1 - ~aseline--Hidership dased on In t r a+co r r idor ano sx t ernal lJeJ.1and--l~on-;1'aXalJle clonds V.16 Cash Flow--scenario 1 '- Baseline--Hidership on Intra-Corridor, External, and Induced Demand--Taxable Bonds Based V.l7

V-14

vi

I.

INrrRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND
;rhe

of l10ntreal (CIDt:Lv[) coram i s s i o ne d a p r e f e a s Lo Ll i t y study in 1982 to determine whether a Very High Speed Rail (VHSR) service between Hontreal and New York City with a trip time of less than 3.5 hours was technically feasible and would have significant economic and social value. This stUdy found that:
City

o
o

Service between i'1ontreal and New York City less than 3.5 hours is technically feasible. \tiith greater investment, the travel these cities can De reduced to 38 minutes. re conunen ce d that

in

time between 2 hours and four stops be considered

'l'hep re f ea.s o i Li t y study i for this service: o o o o New York Albany Burlin<::Jton i-ionrea 1 t City

The review of the prefeasibility study by tile City of nont re a i , tne Province of Quebec, the State of New York, and tne state of Vermont resulted in a collective decision to proceed to the next step in assessing the feasibility of a VriSR Li n e-o-r n e determination of tne marKet potential and economic impacts of a VdSR service between Montreal and New York City. 1.2 OBJECTIVE The overall objective of this study is to assess the potential ridership, urban and regional economic impacts, operating and capital costs, and the financial feasibility or i.mp Leme n t i nq VHS~ pa s se nq e r service between nonr re a I and i'-le\v York City. This study bu iIds upon and cornp Leme n ts the eng ineer 1n9 and oper at ions prefeasibility study of VHS~ service commissioned by the Cltj of Montreal (tue Technical Report) and funded oy cne Province of Quebec.l

I de Courtois, Gaston, and :t\oland CourJault-.t<.ade, Very Hign Speed Rail Service Between Montreal and New YorK - Preieaslbili ty St udy final Report, conducted for tne conue i s s i o n d'1nitiative et de Developpement Economiques de Montreal (C1DEH), June 1984 (revised December 19(4).

1.1

Th{s

preeasibility study is intended to provide the states of New York and Vermont, the Province of Quebec, and the City of Montreal wi th the necessary information for deciding if the VHSR concept has sufficient potential to justify conducting a detailed feas ibi 1i ty study and the subsequent engineer ing that would lead to the iI~plementation of this innovative service.

This prefeasibility study of market potential and economic impacts, funded by the States of New York and Vermont, commenced in February 1984. It was decided by repre~entative~ of the four governments (the StUdy Management Group) that the study would be conducted in two phases, wi tn an intermediate decision r e qa r o i.n q the undertaking of a second phase dependent upon review of the results of the first phase. Phase I consisted of a prefeasibility assessment of travel demand, VHSR ridership, urban and regional economic impacts, and system revenues and costs. Tnis assessment was completed in September 1984. After reviewing the results of Phase I, tne Study i'1anagement Group decided that the market study should continue into Phase II. Phase II completed o o of in this Phase the market study was I. Phase II analyses analyses conducted an extension concentrated phase I; of on: the work

refining

in

eval ua t ing rev ised from the results of

VHSR serv ice plans developed Phase I analyses; and

evaluating the ridership, e c on omi c impacts, revenues, capital costs, operating costs, institutional and financing options, and other important impacts of alternative VHSR scenarios . report documents the findings of this study.

.This

1.3 SCOPE In this evalua tion, the capi tal, operating, and maintenance costs as well as the proposed operating plan for VHSR service (~ncluding general route alignment and station locations, travel times, and service frequencies) are cased on the VHSR concept documented in the Technical Report. These parameters were refined for the Phas e I I eval ua t ion based on the r esul ts of Phas e I. These r efinements have been made cy the Study Management Group in conJunction with the authors of the Technical Report. No specific rail technology has been selected for this corr idor; h owev e r , many of the operating and cost character istics of VHSR service are based on TGV-type service like that operated in France between paris and Lyons. This analysis assumes that VHSR service will be operational on January 1, 1995. A four-year design and construction schedule is assumed as a requirement for implementation of the service.

1.2

This market analysis focuses on potential VHSR riaership in the period 1995 through 2005. VHSR ridership includes estimates of both diverted and induced travel. Travel surveys were not conducted for this project except for a border crossing or igin-des tina tion survey of automobile tr avel per formed in August 1983. An intercity modal split model originally developed for the Northeast Corridor Project and applied and refined for many other intercity travel corridors was the primary market analysis procedure used in this project. This technIque was validated for the New York-Montreal corridor before it was used to forecast VHSR ridership. The economic a impact assessment of VHSR serVIce considers:

short-term impacts related to constructIon and implementation, including employment of people and purcnases of goods anJ services; and long-term impacts such as changes in accessibility, economic activity, t cur i sm , recreat.ion, commercial exchange, and urban development.

Althougn some economic impacts are d i s cus s ed in qu a Li t a t i v e t e rms , many impacts are quantified in tnis report. A preliminary financial analysis of proposed VHSR service was performed in this study. VHSR revenues were estimated for al ternative fare policies and compared to capital and operating and main tenance cas t estimates to assess the inancial v aao i I ity of the service.

1.3

II.

VHSR OPERATINGPLANS AND SCENARIOS

The operating assumptions used in the prefeasibU ..ity study are discussed in this section. The Technical Report is the pr imary source of data for the assumptions on the -operating character istics of the proposed system wi t n some refinements made based on the results of Phase I analyses. 11.1 OVERVIIDIOF CONCEPT

The proposed VHSR service would be a premium service in relation to current North American rall passenger service. On-train aine n i ties would be similar to those presently offered by airlines. Multiple c Las s e s of seating and service wo uLd probably be available. The service is intended to be a high-quality intercity passenger travel mode within the New York City-Montreal corridor.
11.2

ROUTE ALIGNMENT

The VHSR corridor identified for the purpose of this study extends from New York Ci ty to Montreal an d 1 ies w i tnin three pr imary j ur isdi ct ions: tile State of New Yor k , the State of Vermont, and the Province of Quebec. The length of the route is approximately 365 miles (585 kilometers). The general location of the study corridor is shown in Exhibit II-I. on both existlng and new rail The VHSR service would operate wo u Ld be rights-of-way. Most of the new rights-of-way located between Albany and Montreal. Beginning at the southern end of the corridor, the VHSR route generally follows existing rail rights-oi-way dlong the east bank of the Hudson River between New Yor k Ci ty and Rensselaer, New York. Some new construction is necessary to enable the trains to make the connection between pennsylvania Station and tile present AMTRAK rail right-of-way to Alcany. EXisting AMTRAK serVlces between New York City and Alcany (the Empire Corridor) utilize Grand Central Terminal. However, improvements are presently underway to allow AMTRAKtrains in the Empire Corr idor to access Pennsyl vania Station. These improvemen ts would also benet i t the VHSR system. Pennsylvania Station is more desirable as a southern terminal for the VHSR service as it would allow for dlrect connection to other rail passenger services (primarily in the Northeast Corridor). North of New York City, the alignment r igh ts-of -way to Rensselaer, New York. right-of-way would De acquired within Quebec. follows existing North of Rensselaer, New York, Vermont, rail new and

11.1

EXHmIT 111 PROPOSED VHSR CORRIDOR

....... ..:. . ... .. . ...' OTTAWA MONTREAL .: ' ...~.:..... . .... ..- -... ':-..' 'a -:..~ ..... . ...... .... '.~ . .~
'.
,

".

"

'

s'

MAINE

,
.

........................

..

, ,

NEW YORK

,. :...... .
: ,
,

, , , ,

.
'" .'

..

.. . .. ". . .
,
,

, , , ,
"

RUTLAND

. .. .".. ...
'

'. .' ".:

... :

MASSACHUSETT~,<'

... .. .. ,

,,
"

'

'. "" '" ::"

. ......~......'

,,.,

HARTFORO:"

..'.
,

CbNNECT1CUT

RHODE ISLAND

""""." r-:" ,
, ,.' , ,

.. .,- "
LEGEND
VHSR Corridor Major Highways

, ,

r-

..
"

" " " " ,," "

'

" " " """ " ""

PHi:Ao~~.

II. 2

II.3

DESCRIPTION
of seven

OF SCENARIOS
VHSR

A total

set

scenarios were evaluated in this study. The a Basel ine and six otners tha t differ from the Baseline in terms of certain operations, infrastructure, and market assumptions. The findings of the evaluation of each of the scenarios are documented in this report.

of scenarios

incl

udes

11.3.1

Scenario

1 - Baseline

The VHSR operating plan selected for detailed analysis in this study was derived by modifying some of the assumptions used during Phase I. These assumptions were modified after reviewing the Phas e I resu I ts so as to def ine an operating scenar io t h a t would serve the p ro j e c t ed volume of patronage more efficiently. This oper a ting plan is refer red to as the Baseline scenar io, and is described below. II.3.1.a Station Locations are included in tne corridor tor the purpose of

Six station sites this analysis: o

0 0 0 0 0

1ontreal Burlinyton Rutland Albany Poughkeepsie New York City stations is assumed for four of the six re-

Use of gions. o o o o

existing rail These are: Central Station

(Montreal) (Albany)

Rensselaer AMTRAK

Station

Station

(poughkeepsie) Station (New York City) vicinity of in the yen-

Pennsylvania

New stations are assumed for Burlington in the general the Burlington International Airport, and for Rutland eral vicinity of ~lliitehall, New York.

II. 3

11.3.1.b

Technology

The VHSR system as defined for this prefeasibility study is based on the experience of the TGV service currently operating in france between Par is and Lyons. However, this particular technology has not been selected as the technology to be used should a very high speed rai 1 serv ice be implemented in this cor r idor, bu t only as representative of very nigh speed rail technologies for the purposes of this prefeasibility study. II.3.1.c Travel Times

Station to station travel times have been developed for the cor~ido~ assuming a maximum train speed of 185 miles per hour (300 km/h). These travel times are listed in Exhibit 11-2, along with present AMTRAK travel times. Where applicable, the VHSR times include two minutes dwell time per intermediate station. 11.3.1.d Service Frequency

For the ridership projections for the analysis period 1995 through 2005, 14 t~ains are assumed to operate daily in each direction between New York City and Albany, with six of tnese trains operating between New York City and Montreal. All trains are as sume o to serve all intermediate stations. Currently, nine trains operate daily between New York Ci ty and Albany, one ot wn i ch continues to Mon treal v ia Plat t sou rgn. An addi tional tr a i n o pe ra tes da ily uetween Ne w York City and Ho n t rea L via Hartford and sur lington and does not serve Aloany. There is no serv ice oetween Albany and Bu~lington. 1I.3.l.e Fares

Estimates of VHSR travel demand that wou~d be diverted from other modes were made using fares equal to 150 percent of the 1982 AMTRAK fares for those interchanges currently served. AMTRAK fares were de f Ln ed as half the regular round tr ip fares. Fares were calculated for interchanges not presently served based on the distances and fares for the o t ne r interchanges. The fares are shown in Exhibit 11-3. If the proposed VHSR system is successfully implemented in the New York-Montreal corridor, air fares may be lowered for markets in which air and VHSR are competitive. Estimates of VHSR travel were made using air fares equal to 75 percent of current air fares.

II.

EXHIBIT II-2

RAIL STATIUl'I TO STA'.flOi'i TRAVEL TIMES (Times in Minutes)

.Between

AMIRAK Service Link. Cumulative 178 178 2421 105 60 York 89 5112 347 4232

VHSR Service Cumulative3,4 Link 43 27 28 25 43 72 102 129

Montreal-Burlington Burlington-Rutland Rutland-Albany Albany-Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie-New City

58

189

1 There is no A}ITRAK service between Burlington and Rutland. The cumulative time listed for Nontreal-Rutland is the travel time on "The Adirondack" via Plattsburgh, New York. 2 The cumulative times listed for Hontreal-Poughkeepsie and Nontreal-New York City are the travel times on "The Adirondack." These times are different from the sum of the Montreal-Albany section and the section south of Albany because other trains operated south of Albany use different equipment and have different travel times. 3 Cumulative times include station dwell time.

4 According to the Technical Report, a non-stop trip between Montreal and New York City could have a travel time of 170 minutes.

II. 5

EXHIBIT II-3 ONE-WAY VHSR FARES

Between New York City-Albany New York City-Rutland New York City-Burlington New York City-Montreal Poughkeepsie-Albany Poughkeepsie-Rutland Poughkeepsie-Burlington Poughkeepsie-Montreal Albany-Burlington Albany-Montreal Rutland-Montreal Burlington-Montreal

Fare (1982

u.s.

$)

$2'+.75 38.25 51.75 ':'1. 75 13.13 27 .00 30.75 45.75 27.00 31.88
3v.GO

21. VO

II.

II.3.2

Scenario

2 - Baseline

With

Socioeconomic

Growth

This scenar io is the same as tne Baseline except for the method used to estimate future travel volumes. For this scenario, forecast year travel volumes were estimated using a socioeconomic model. For the Baseline, iorecast year travel volumes were estimated based on observed travel trends. Tne socioeconomic model is a useful tool for assessing the reasonableness of tne travel trend estimates. These projections are described in Section II 1.

11.3.3

Scenario

3 - Ba3eline

~Jith No Travel

Growth

This scenar io is the same as the Baseline except that it was volumes wou Ld remain constant assumed that forecast year travel However, the modal spl it of wi th observed 1982 travel volumes. travel was allowed to change to reflect VHSR service. Tl1is scenar io represents a "war st case, n in the event that the anticipated travel growth does not occur.

11.3.4

Scenario

4 - Energy

Price

Increase

This scenario is the same as the Baseline except for the travel costs used in the ridership projection. Forecast year travel costs for eacn travel mode we re recalculated based on an assumed doubling of the price of crude oil. This scenario is being evaluated to assess the impact of a future energy crisis. These travel costs are discussed in Section III.

11.3.5

Scenario

5 - Reduced

Air

Fares

This scenarlO is the sane as the Baseline except for the air fares that were used in the ridership projection. In the Baseline, air fares equal to 75 percent of current air fares were used. In this scenario, air fares eyual to 50 percent of current air fares were used. Th is s cenar io r epr esents one pass Io.l e mar ket response to the implementation of VHSR service.

11.3.6

Scenario

6 - Reduced

Infrastructure:

Electric

propulsion

The Phase I analysis indicated that f ewe r trains would be needed to car ry pro jected rider ship than was or ig inally ant i c i pa ted at the star t of the pr ef eas Lb i 1ity study. Th is finding suggested that significant ca p i tal cost savings could be realized for the VHSH system by e Li m i n a t i n q certain components of tne system assumed for the Baseline scenario. The Reduced Infrastructure: Electric Propulsion scenario was developed with the following changes from the Baseline:

construction of single trackage between and Montreal w i th necessary pass ing rather than continuous double trackage~ deletion of the proposed PeekSKill

Albany traCKS,

Diversion;

and

II. 7

elimination Poughkeepsie

of the proposed and Albany.

third

track

bec:ween

The infrastructure reductions north of Albany are primarily based on operating fewer daily trains than originally planned. South of Albany, the infrastructure reductions are based on balancing capital costs and VHSR service quality. Although these changes would increase VHSR travel times and could impact projected VHSR ridership, no travel projections were made for this scenario in this study. The financial analysis of this scenario was performed using the VHSR ridership projections for the Baseline. The objective of this financial analysis wa s to evaluate the financlal impact of the proposed capital and operating cost reductions. 11.3.7 Scenario 7 - Reduced Infrastructure: Turbine Propulsion

In addition to the changes outlinea in SCenario 6, further capital co s t sav ings could be r ea Li zed DY e I Im i na c.ing the infr as tructur e required for electric traction and using gas turbine-powered trainsets. These trainsets could then be used ill connecting corridors (e.g., Albany-Buffalo), if desired. As with Scenario 6, however, no travel projections were made for this scenariu despite some increases in VHS.t{ travel times. The financial analysis of this scenario was performed using the VHSR ridership projections for the Baseline. The oDJective of the financial analysis was to evaluate the financial impact of the proposed capital cost reduction and the accompanying changes in operating and maintenance costs. 11.4 IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

This prefeasioility study is being performed with the assumption that revenue service on the VHSR system would begin at tne start of calendar year 1995. The actual start of revenue service could be earlier or later, depending on the outcomes of feasiDility and financial studies and on the decision-making and i mp lemen t a t i o n processes. The financial analysis in tnis study is based on a four year construction schedule.

II. 8

III.

TRAVEL

ANALYSIS

The purpose of this section is to identify the data sources used in the VHSR ridership projections, to describe the modeling procedures that were followed, and to present the VHSR ridership estimates for the forecast years. 111.1 DESCRIPTION OF VHSR CORRIDOR is approx22 million

The VHSR cor r idor imately 400 miles people lived along 111.1.1 Regional

between New Yor k Ci ty and Mon tr eal (650 kilometers) long. r"!ore than the corridor in 1982. Definitions and Analysis Zone system

For this analysis, the corridor was divided into six regions, \vith each region representing the potential passenger catchment area a round each s ta tion s i te. Each reg ion was def ined as the ar ea wi thin approximately one hour ground access time of each station site; the regional boundar ies wer e dr awn along county boundar ies (census divisions in Canada). This facilitates the use of available de mo q raphic and tr a vel data, as popula t ion pr a ject ions and many travel survey results are presented at the county level. A map showing the regional eoundaries is it 111-1. Each region is larger than the area defined for its respective core city. presented in Exhibgeneral metropolitan

In order to analyze in te rei ty travel patterns and serv ice charact e r is tic sin de tail, ea ch r e':l ion w i::l.s d iv ide c.i in to a n umo e r 0 f zones corresponding to individual counties or census divisions or groupings of counties or census divisions. A map showing the zone system used for the analysis is presented in Exhibit III-2. Hithin those regions that contain core u ro a n areas defined us i.n q county or census division boundaries, there is a central zone surrounded by a ring of outlying zones. This allows trips requiring long access to stations to be modeled separa tely from tr ips wi th conveni ent s ta tion access. Tn e di v is ions between tile au tlying zones often f o Ll ow topographic boundaries, such as rivers. A list of the counties and census divisions included in eaCh zone is presented in Appendix A. 111.1.2 Population

The six regions within the corridor are very different in terrilS of population and the projected q row t h in population. Estimates of the population of eaCh region for the base year 1982 and the years 1990 and 2000 are presented in Exhibit 111-3.

111.1

'\,
\

_0'-

.~

.-/

EXHIBIT ID-I
REGIONAL BOUNDARIEs
MONTREAL

BURLINGTON

,
\

RUTLAND

\
/

ALBANY

POUGHKEEPSIE

NEW YORK

III.2

\.
J ',~'\~ "

. \\
.

EXHmlTm.l
ZONE SYSTEM

III.3

EXHIBIT III-3
POPULATION ESTIHAIES

(In Thousands) YecJr Region New York Poughkeepsie Albany Rutland Burlington Hontreal 1982 16,585 679 1,071:) 148 281 4,120 1990 16,543 749 1,ll7 159 315 4,2.71

2uOu
16,~29 847 1,173

" Change 1982-20UO 1.5 24.9 8.1:) 16.6 25.3 4.2

In
352

4,292

Sources:

New York State Department of Commerce New Jersey Department of Labor Vermont Department of Health State of Connecticut Office of Policy & Hanagement Berkshire County (Massachusetts) Regional Planning Commission 1981 Census of Canada Market Research Handbook published by Statistics Canada

111.4

The New York City region is by far the largest of the six cegions in the corridor, followed oy tne Montreal region. rlowever, e a cn of these regions is expected to grow oy less than 5 percent between 1982 and 2000. The Albany r e q i on is e xpe c t ed to grow modestly cur ing this per iod. The Bur lington, Rutland, and Poughkeepsie regions, which are tne least populous, are expected to have the highest population growth rates. 111.2 EXISTING TRAVELIN THE CORRIDOR

One of the first steps in forecasting interci ty travel in a corridor is to quantify existing travel. In tnis study, 1982 was selected as the base year. In terci ty travel volumes wer e estimated for 1982 for all zonal combinations except for a few combinations involving zones in adjacent regions, where VHSR service would not be a practical option. These estimates were developed by trip purpose (business, non-business). Since no travel surveys were conducted by the study team, intercity tr avel data wer e ga ther ed from pub I ished sources. Var ious sources were used. In some cases, such as for rail and air passenger vo Lume s , data for 1982 were readily available. In other cases, travel data and estimates from prior years were r ev i eweu and updated. The following describes the development of base year travel estimates on a modal basis. These estimates were refined during t he study as the corridor de r i n i t t on Changed and as more accurate informatIon became available. III.2.1 Air Travel

Estimates o t 1982 air passenger volumes be t ve en the six regions were obtained from the U.S. Civil Aeronautics Board and from Transport Canada. The estimates are based upon a 10 percent sample of air passenger tickets used on coramercia1 air carriers. Airport to airport volumes were obtained for interstate and intrastate air carriers. Trips to and from the New York region were allocated to zones by trip purpose using the results of air passenger surveys conducted a t the thr ee major a i rpor ts by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Trips to and from the Albany region were allocated to zone 7 based on the results of the 1975 Albany Airport survey, and to the remaining zones based on population. For tr ips to and fr om Bur 1ington and ]\]on treal, a major i ty wer e alloca ted to the central zone based upon di scuss ions wi th pr 0fessionals knovJledgeable about the local distribution of air passengers in those regions. The remaining trips v e x e allocated among the outlying zones based on population.

III. 5

III.2.2

Rail Travel
These ticket

Rail passenger volumes for 1982 were provided by NYSDOT. -A!'1TRAK station to station volumes were taken from tabulations.

A 1979 NYSDOT rail ridership survey was used to allocate New YorkAlbany trips by trip purpose and by zonal interchange. Trips between other regions wer e allocated based upon the rela t ive po pu+ lation of zones within a region, proximity of zones to rail stations, and prior estimates of trips by trip purpose. 111.2.3 Auto Travel

Au to tr avel vol urne s between Hon tr eal and the other five reg ions were estimated using two primary sources: the 1983 (,Juebec Border Crossing Survey, conducted by the Quebec Ministry or Transport, and Statistics Canada tabulations of vehicles and passengers en ter ing Canada by par t of en try for cal endar year 1982. The border crossing survey was a detailed or igin-destination survey conducted at tne most likely border crossing locations for travelers between Montreal and the other regions. The results of this survey were used to allocate the actual border crossing volumes to zonal interchanges. The survey was also used to develop trip purpose allocations for each region-region interchange. The actual 1982 auto travel volume between New York City and Albany va s not available. An estimate of the 1975 volume was obtained from the NYSDOT travel demand study of that year.l This volume was updated to 1982 by using a growth rate e s t i ma t e d from New York State Thruway volume counts. This growth rate (approximately 10.3 percent between 1975 and 19c12) was derived from the growth in traffic volume at the lowest volume link on the Thruway between New York and Albany. The res u Lt i n q 1982 v o Lume estimate was then adjusted to account for differences in the definitions of regions between the 1975 stUdy and this study. Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) definitions were used ~n the 1975 study. The trips were allocated by purpose based on estimates from the 1975 study, and were allocated to zones based on estimates presented in the 1968 NYSDOT High Speed Kail Concept Study.2

1 Erlbaum, Nathan S., Michael F. Trentacoste, RObert G. Knighton, and Stephen R. Slavick, New York State Intercity Travel Data, 1975. New York State Department of ~T~r-a-n-s-p~o--r~t-a~t-i~o-n~~p~r-e~lr~~'m~inary 113, February ResearCh Report 1977. 2 Rossi, L., and J. DiRenzo, High-Speed Rail Service in New York State: Concept Study Technical Report. State Department of Transportation, October 31, 1969.

New York

111.6

Eatimatea of auto travel between New available. It was assumed that this that be t.we en New York and Plattsburgh, and 1975 Q5>timatQs were available. derived ior Nelt.' York-Albany vias also Tr ip allocations by zone were based the relative populations of the zones

York and Burlington were not interchange was analogous to New York, for which 1968 The 1975-1982growth factor used for this interchange. on the pr ior studies and on in the Burlington region.

The only available estimate of the auto travel volume between Albany and Bur lington is f r orn the 1968 NYSDOT High Speed Rail Concept Study. This estimate was based upon a gravity model. This estimate for travel between the Albany SMSA (zone 7) and the Bur lington SI-1SA (zone 11), was equal to a tenth of the estimate of travel between Montreal and Albany listed in that study. Tn is factor was appl ied to the pr ev iously der i ved es timate of 1982 Montreal-Albany trips. The resulting trip volume was then expanded to the other zonal interchanges between Aloany and Bur 1ington based on population. The Albany-Bur 1ington au to tr ips were divided by purpose using information from the 1~68 study. Auto using volumes for the remaining the 1968 NYSDOT High Speed Bus Travel interchanges Rail Concept were StUdy. also developed

111.2.4

Es t i mates 0f inter c i ty bus passenger volumes in 1982 wer e not available, except for tr ips between Montreal and New Yor k , Estimates were derived based on prior New YorK State studies and the Port Authority Bus Terminal surveys of 1972 and 1980. Survey, longAccording to the 198U Port Authority Bus Terminal New Yor K Ci ty ar ea have haul ous passenger flows to and from the 1975 NYSDOT esti~ates of changed little since 1975. Consequently, and Albany-Montreal were bus passenger volumes for New York-Albany used to estimate 1982 bus volumes. An estimate of bUS ridership for New York-Burlington for 1975 was not available. However, an estimate w a s made by mul tiplying an estimate in the NYSDOT High Speed Rail Concept study by the gro\Jth observed in bus travel b e t w e e n New YorK Ci ty and Plattsburgh between 1968 and 1975. Again it \Jas assumed tha t these two in te rchanges were analogous. An estimate of bus passenger volumes between Albany and Burlington was not ava ilable . The est ima te der i ved for the bus passenger volume between Albany and Montreal was approximately 13,000. Since data were limited, and the volume in question was s@all, it was decided to assign a volume to the Albany-Bur lington interchange based on the Al b an y -teon t r e a I volume. The Albany-Bur Li n q t o n bus volume was estimated to be 10,000 for the base year.

111.7

The four estimates descrioed above were then adjusted to reflect differences in regional definitions between the prior studies ana this study. Trips were allocated to zones base~ on the 1972 Port Authority Bus Terminal Survey, and on relative zonal populations. Trips were allocated by purpose based on the two NYSDOT travel studies. An estimate of bus travel between Montreal and Burlington was developed by multiplying the number of bUS passengers who crossed the international border at PhilipSburg, Quebec, during 1982 by t n e proportion o r auto survey respondents at that location WhO indicated that they were traveling between the Montreal region ana the Burlington region. The auto survey was also used to allocate these trips by purpose and zone. Bus vol urnes between Poughkeeps ie and Albany were es t ima ted based on the relative frequency of bus service between PoughKeepsie and Albany and between New York City and Albany. No other bus volumes to and from Poughkeepsie were estimated, as there is no convenient bus service to any of the other regions. An estimate of intercity bus travel between Montreal and New York City in 1982 was provided by the Quebec I'1inistry of Transport. Trips "Jere allocated to zones in New York based on the lY72 Port Authority Bus Terminal Survey and to zones in Hontreal based on the border crossing survey. Trips were allocated by purpose based on the 1975 NYSDOT study.
111.2.5

Total

Travel of
t ha n

Exhibit 111-4 presents estimates trip intercnange by mode. More within the corridor in lY82.

19H2 travel for each regional 8.3 million trips were made

Two of the largest regional interChange voluloes are between Ne w York City and Albany and between Ne\{ York City and Montreal. These are the major markets for the proposed VHSR service. Trips between Poughkeepsie dnd Albany and cetween Burlington and Hontreal also make up a significant portion of trips within the corridor. However, many of these trips are short trips that are unlikely to be captured by the VHSR service. In the base year, a majority of intercity trips 'vi thin the corridor were made by automobile. Bus also has a significant market share, especially between New York and Albany. Air and rail only have significant volumes in interChanges involving New York.

111.8

EXHIBIT ESTIMATED

III-4 .BY NODE

1982 TRAVEL

(In Thousands)

Interchange New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Albany Albany Rutland - Albany - Rutland - Burlington - Montreal

Air 128 11 81 300

Auto 1,576 j~2 435 735 1,738 11

Bus 497 37 10 1.:W 3

Rail 436
4

Total --:L,636 444 541 1,223 1,754 11 7

15 69 14

5 2 3

2 7 31 110 31 10 10 3
42 732
j

11 44 125 35

- Burlington - Montreal - Montreal - Nontreal

Burlington TOTAL

-529

1,4()';/ 6,.J36

5 549

1,516 6,346

Note:

Rowand

column totals may not sum due to rounding.

111.9

111.3

TRAVEL DEMAND AND MODAL SPLIT ESTlt~TION travel demand

PROCESS and VHSR ridership

The analysis of future intercity focused on four travel marKets: o

intra-corridor trips between the six regions in the corridor that could be diverted to VHSR service (e.g., New York City-Montreal, BurlingtonAlbany) ; "external" trips that begin or end outside the corridor and have either an origin or a destination in one of the six re9ions of the corridor (e.g., Buffalo-New York City, AIDany~~ s11ing ton, D c. ) ; a totally new trips induced by the Lmp roveo level of transportation service offered oy VHSR: aud totally new trips related to new t our i s,n , recreation, and associated eco nom i c development in the corridor induced bj toe implementation of VHSR service.

o o

The first market consists of the largest number of trips that co u 1 d be a t tract ed to V HS R se rv ice. As not edin Ex h ibit I I I - 4 , over 8.3 million total intercity trips of t n i s type were made in 1982, and the volume of such trips will grow over time. The "external" trip market, which includes trips made to and from areas outside the corridor to one of tne six regions in the corridor, will yield additional VHSR trips. For example, existing rail trips from cities west of Albany to New York City could use VHSR service. Examples of other sucn trips are those between Ottawa or Quebec City and Burlington, Rutland, Albany, Poughkeepsie, or New YorK City, or trips from Philadelphia or Hashington, D.C., to corridor cities. Such trips are currently being made. Techniques used to proJect these four types of trips are discussed below. 111.3.1 Techniyues for ~stimating Intra-Corridor intra-corridor Trips travel demand dnd

Tne techniques for projecting modal split are described below. III.3.l.a Travel Demand

Two techniques were evaluated for projecting total intercity travel demand between the 19 zones within the corridor--a model using oo s e rv ed travel trends to pro je c t fut ure travel d e.na n d , and a socioeconomic demand model developed for the Nortneast Corridor.

111.10

projections of total intercity travel Were made for the forecast years 1995 and 2005 based on historical patterns of travel growth and assumptions regarding future growth. The best available nistorical estimates for intercity travel were for tne NeW York Ci ty-Albany and New York Ci ty-Montreal interchanges in t rie NYSDOT High Speed Rail Concept study. Estimates were made for travel between subareas of the New York region and the Albany and Montreal me t ropo t i tan areas. These estimates were aggregated to correspond with the analysis zoneS used "in this study. The results of this analysis were estimates of 1968 travel volu~es between the New Yor k reg ion and the Hon treal reg ion, and bet v,een the New York region and zone 7, whiCh corresponds to the 1970 definition of the Albany St1SA. Historical travel qr ow t h rates were then derived using these estimates and the corresponding estimates of 1982 travel volumes developed in this study. Tnese growth rates, along with the estimated travel volumes, are shown in Exhibit 111-5. The growth oelow: rates used for each trip interchange are presented

Interchange New York City-Albany New York City-Rutland New YorK City-Burlington New York City-Montreal Poughkeepsie-Albany PoughKeepsie-Rutland pougnkeepsie-ourlington poughkeepsie-Montreal Albany-Burlington Albany-Montreal Rutland-Montreal Burlington-Montreal

Compounded Growth

Annual Rate

2.75% 2.75%

2.50% 1..09%
2.75%

2.75% 2.50% 1.U9% 2.50% 1.09%

1. 09%

2.50%
interchanges reflect of that region by the

The growth rates for the Burlington-oriented the projected population and economic growth year 2000.

The socioeconomic model uses popUlation and per capita income for projecting the growth in travel demand for each zonal trip interchange. It was developed based upon observed relationships between regional population and income growth, and intercity travel. Projections of intercity travel demand were developed for each trip interchange for the forecast years 1995 and 2005. III.3.1.b The modal Man-lick's Modal Split Model use in Modal this Split s t u dy is i'iodel. Peat This

spl it model selected for Cross-Elasticity Intercity

111.11

EXHIBIT III-5
GROWTH IN TRAVEL DEMAND FOR NEW YORK-ALBANY AND NEW YORK -MONTRl:AL DITERCHANGES

Year Interchange New York - A1bany* l'iew York - Montreal 1968 1,419,000 1,U51,00U 1982 ~,074,UOU 1,223,uOO

Compounded Annual I.7rowthRate 2.75%

1.U':1%

* Zone 7 only.

11I.12

model is an adaptation of spl it model known as CN27. reasons: o

the cross-elasticity intercity This model was selected for

modal several

It was the subject of extensive research and review in its development for the Northeast Corridor Project. It is conceptually sound and has been successfully adapted and applied in many high speed rail market assessments. It is is sensitive a major issue Calibration to intermodal competition, in this corridor. of Models model is of tne form:
SI _ WI

o III.3.I.c

wnicn

The cross-elasticity

!:W,
I

where si is the modal split for mode i and wi is the relative ve i qh t of mode i. The relative weights for each mode are calculated based on the travel times, travel costs, and service frequencies for each mode b e t w e e n each zonal pair. The weights are expressed by: w.
~

C (t + ~)al
f

ca2

where t represents travel time, c represents travel cost, and f represents service frequency. C, a I , a2, and a3 are calibration coeff i c i ents . These coeff i c i e n ts 0f the c r oss-e las ti ci ty mode1 are presented in Appendix B. In this study, the model s were cal ibr a ted f or the New Yor k Ci tyMontreal corridor by estimating base year modal shares for a set of zonal interchanges using the c r os s+e Las t i c i ty moc e I and then adjusting the constant coe r r i c i en t C for e a cn mode until the observed modal shares were replicated. Specifically, toe crosselasticity model was calibrated for the New York City-AlDany portion of the corridor for the following reasons: o It is
vh i ch

rently o
a

the only interchange in tile fast, frequent rail passenger operates. strong intermodal

corridor service

in cur-

There is currently in this interchange.

compe t i t i on

Rail passenger volumes and service terchanges are not representative posed for VHSR service.

for of

other that

inpro-

11I.13

The

process

followed

to

calibrate

the

model

for

this

interchange

is described below. III.3.l.d Calibration Process

For the purpose of model calibration and subsequent VHSR ridership projections, the 19 zones were divided intu three types: central, suburban, and rural. These classifications were based on intensity of land development to account for various influences such as congestion, availability of public transportation, and au t oraob i Le ownership, influences which affect choice of intercity mode. The center zones in each region that represent core urban areas (zones 1,7,11,14) were classified as "central," as was zone 2, which includes three boroughs of New York City, plus Nassau County, Long Island. The remaining zones in the New York Ci ty region and three of the four outlying zones in the Montreal region (zones 15, 17, 18) were classified as "suburban." The remaining zones were classified as "rural." Different models were defined to represent eaCh type of intercity tr ip. Hi th three different classif ica tions or zunes, there are six combinations of tri~ endpoint classifications:
0

central-central central-rural central-suburban suburban-suburban sUburban-rural rural-rural

0
0

0 0

However, only four of these combinations ar e repr esen ted in the New York City-Albany interchange, as there are no suburbansuburban or rural-rural combinations. Therefore, only fuur models were defined: o o o o central-central central-rural central-suburban suburban-rural (Modell) (Mudel 2) 3)

(Model (Model 4)

Hhen the caliorated models were applied to the otner r eq i on a I interchanges, sUburban-suburban trips were proJected using Model 3, and rural-rural trips were proJected using Model 4.

III.14

The calibration procedure is an iterative one. First, separate model input data files were prepared for eacn group of zonal interchanges, one group for each model. These zonal intercnange groups are:
0
0

Model 1: 1-7, 2-7 Hodel 2: 1-8, 1-9, 1-10, 5-7, 4-9, 6-7 4-10, 5-8, 5-9, 5-lU, 6-8, 2-8, 2-9, 2-10

a a

Model 3 : 4-7, Model 4 : 4-8, 6-9, 6-10

Note that interchanges involving zone 3 are not included. This is because it was determined tha t traveler s between zone 3 and the Albany region would have bet ter rail serv ice by boar ding a conventional train at Croton rather than traveling to New York City to access the VHSR system. Also note that zone 9 is included in the Albany region, as the model calibration was performed early in the study, when the definition of the study corridor was slightly different than at the completion of the stUdy. Hodal share estimates were made for each group of interchanges using the cross-elasticity model. The constant coefiicients (C) were then a d j us t e d and the process repeated until the e s t i mat e s reflected the oo s e r ve d modal shares. separate calibrations were made for business and non-business trips. Exh i b i t 111-6 presents the resulting calibration co e f f i c i e nt s for each of the models. These coefficients define the mode Ls that replicate the base year modal trips within U.l percent vf tne observed volumes. III.3.1.e Base Year Travel Characteristics

The base year travel chdracteristics developed for each zonal interchange included line-haul travel times and costs for auto, bus, air, and rail, service frequencies for bus, air, and rail, and access, egress, and terminal times and costs for each mode. The line-haul travel times, travel costs, and frequencies \Jere obtained from pu o Li s he d schedules and fare tables for the common carrier modes. Bus information was obtained from the Official Bus Guide and from various carriers. Air information va s obtained from a mid-1982 issue of tne Official Airline Guide. Rail information was obtained from both AMTRAK and NYSDOT. Auto travel times were based on the most direct route between zone centers and an average speed of 50 mph. Auto travel costs were estimated based on average automobile ownLnq and operating costs for 1982 as reported by the Federal Highway Administration. This

111.15

EXHIBIT III-6 CALIBRATION CONSTANTS (C) FOR NEW YORK-ALBANY MODELS

Purpose Business

Mode Auto Bus Air VHSR

CrossElasticity 1.0 0.3767 1.1232 1.4813 1.0 1.3872 0.7767 1.9881

Model 1 1.0 1.7794 0.3032 2.1665 1.0 17.3415 7.1614 9.3886 2 1.0 0.3412 0.1462 0.5714 1.0 3.1661 3.1084 3.4980 3 1.0 0.4780 0.4972 0.0609 1.0 5.1146 8.3386 1.5989 4 1.0 0.0629 0.1652 0.0272 1.0 0.6157 2.6698 0.3573

Non-Business

Auto Bus Air VHSR

111.16

es~ima~ed cost (16.8 cents per mile) includes maintenance, gas and car. Tolls oil, insurance, and taxes for an intermediate size by were also included vhe re applicable. These costs were divided to reflect 1.4 for business t r ips ana 2.4 for non-business trips average automobile occupancy. station access, egress, and terminal times and costs were mated for each mode for each zone. Sources of data included: o o o o o The The The 1978 Port Authority Airline Airporc surveys;l esti-

Official 1982 Port

Guide; Airport and Study. Access Study;2

Autnority

airport The 1975

parking NYSDOT

operators; Travel

Demand

Representative service cnaracteristics for the base year are shown for selected regional interchanges in Exlliuit 111-7. These service characteristics include door-to-door travel times, costs, and frequencies and are listed for each CBD to ceD zonal interchange. II1.3.2 Techniques for Estimating External Travel

Projections of "external" travel (defined as trips with one or both endpoints ou tside the cor r idor but w i th a por t ion of the journey made within the corridor) were made using a pivot-point analysis technique. The original cross-elasticity modal split model (discussed earlier in this section) was used to estimate modal shares for external trip interchanges for both the pre-VHSR and VHSR conditions. The relative improvements in rail ridership as estimated by this modeling procedure were tnen applied to the actual rail trip volumes for the base year (i.e., 1982). The ~esults were then factored to represent forecast-year travel using a compounded growth rate of 2.5 percent per year. The external rail trip interchanges where VHSR system for some portion of the trip four maJor groups: travelers COUld use the can be classified into

1 The

port Authority of New York/New Jersey Origin by Mode to Airport, 1972 and 1~78. Planning Jersey, Prepared

Airports

passengers'

2 New York City Department of City Au thor ity of Ne\v Yor k and New portation Services to Airports. Transportation, December 1982.

and The Port Improved Public Transfor U.S. Department of

111.17

EXHIJ:HT III-7
1962 SERVICE CHARACTERISTICS

(DOOR-TO-DUOR TIMES A~D COSTS)

Travel Time (Min)

Selected New York Auto Bus Air Rail New York Auto Bus Air Rail New York Auto Bus Air Rail

Interchanges (l)-Albany (7)

Frequency

Travel

Cost

(82 $)
21. 65 (B) 12.61 35.90 100.33 25.39 (NB)

30 16 8 (l)-Burlington (11 ) 5 3 1 (l)-Montreal (14 ) 7 10 2 (11 ) 5 3 0 (14 ) 4 2 1 (14 ) 4

187 255 184 232

425 527 155 620

42.47 53.78 142.18 43.01

(B ) 24.77

(NB)

458 577 205 596

48.76 51. 49 98.32 42.72

(8 )

28.43

(NB)

Albany (7)-Burlington Auto Bus Air Rail Albany (7)-Montreal Auto Bus Air Rail Burlington Auto Bus Air Rail

204 339 149

20.39 27.58 96.90

(B ) 11. 89 (NB)

272 408 281 437

27.42 46.56 72.14 30.38

(B ) 15.87

(NB)

(ll}-Montreal

120 220 248

12.00 25.05 22.72

(B) 6.99

(NB)

* for eaCh automooile

and one

f o r no n+ou s Lne ss

interchange (NB).

two costs

are given,

one

for business

(8)

111.18

tr ips oetween Canadian c i ties (Quebec, Mon treal, ottawa, Toronto) and U.S. cities, excluding trips between Montreal and the other cities in the VHSR corridor; trips between cities in v e s t e rn New York state (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Utica) plus au tland, Albany, and Poughkeeps ie, and Nor theas t corridor cities south of New York City (Trenton, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington); trips between cities in western New York and poughkeepsie and New York City; and tr ips b e t we e n corridor cities Bur 1 ington and south of New York the City. State

a o

Northeast

The trips included in the first two groups require a rail transfer (change of trains) in either Montreal, Albany, or Ne.l Yo rx . Unfortunately, base-year rail passenger volumes are only available for rail interchanges tnat do not require a transfer between trains. This is because Al"ITRAK tickets and accounts separately for each leg of a tr ip requir ing transfers. Consequently, the pi vot-point analysis technique cannot be used for tr ips inclutled in the first two groups. However, since transferring travelers are issued separate tickets for each ley of their trip, they nave been accounted for as passengers on tnat rail segment within the New York City-Montreal corridor on which they ride. Tnereiore, these trips are not "lost," but are included in tne projection of intra-corridor travel. The pivot-point analysis techniyue was used to proJect VHSR ridership for the third and fourth groups of trips. Estimates of the base-year volumes of these trips were availaDle. Base-year travel service characteristics were estimated for these external trip interchanges using published s cn e du Le s and fare t ab les . Access, egress, and terminal times and costs were estima t e d based on the size of the metropoli tan areas involved. These character istics were assumed to be the same for the forecast year, with the exception of rail travel times and frequencies. Rail modal shares were then est ima ted for both the pr e-VHSR and VHSR condi t ions. The ratio of the two modal shares (VHSR divided by pre-VHSR) for each interchange was then multiplied by the actual base-year rail travel voluIlle.
111.3.3

Techniques

for Estimating

Induced

Travel

Two types of induced travel were considered in tnis study. The first type is travel by future residents and businesses located in the corridor induced by tne high quality and innovative nature of the proposed VHSR service. Such t r ips COUld be entirely "nevi" trips induced by VHSR service as well as trips diverted from outside the corridor (e.g., Northeast Corridor, Quebec City-Toronto,

11I.19

Albany-Boston to the New York CitY-LV1ontreal corridor). This type does not account for significant new tourism and recreational development in currently undeveloped rural areas of tne corridor. The second type of induced demand accounts for trips inducea by s t qn i r t can t new recreation and tour ism development generated by the greatly improved accessibility VHSR service provides. Specifically, this second type of trip is primarily related to induced tourism and recreation development in Vermont. Techniques for cussed below. III.3.3.a es tima
t

i n-;

e a cn

type

of

induced

travel

are

di s-

Travel

Related

to Projected

Economic

Development

Induced travel on the VHSR system was estimated using two separate techniques based on the intra-corridor travel projections discussed earlier. One technique involved the use of an induced demand formula. The formula estimates the level of induced demand for an interchange based upon the rail modai share projected for that interchange. The formula is of the form:
F _

[_1 s ]a_1
1.

where s is tne predicted modal share, B equals 0.54 for business travel and 0.61 for non-business travel, and F is the factor to be applied to the projected interchange volume to derive the estimate of induced demand. This technique has been used in pr lor intercity rail studies for estimating the demand induced Dy tne introduction of new high speed rail service. The induced demand formula technique was appl ied separ a tel Y ro r business and non-business travel for each group of zonal interchanges (central-central, central-suburoan, central-rural, sUburban-suburoan) within each regional interChange, except for Ne\/ York ci ty-Albany. This interchange was excepted because the induced demand formula was derived for use in cases Where an ent irely n e w s e rv ice is be ing in troduced. Th is is not tne case for the New York City-Albany Ln t.er cna nqe , as frequent, fast rail service currently operates there. It was decided to use another technique to estimate induced travel for this interchange. The second technique for estimating induced travel involved the project team's judgmental selection of an inducement factor considered reasonable for the New York City-Albany interchange. For the purpose of this analysis, it was assumed that 15 percent of intra-corridor travel would be induced to use VHSR service. VHSR service will undoubtedly induce additional business and non-business travel because it is fast, frequent, and

111.20

comfortable. assumed level o

However, the following factors of inducement should be used:

suggest

that

the

Fast, frequent rail service is currently operating between New Yor k Ci ty and Albany. Al though VHSR service will reduce travel times between these regions by as mucn as one hour compared to the 1982 AMTRAK travel time of 2 hours and 29 m i nu tes, it is not an ticipa tea that this reduction will have as great an impact on induced ridersnip as it would if high speed rail service were not already in place between New York City and Albany. This intercnange is reasonably well served by convenient air service, and the air service generally o r re rs travel t i me s competitive w i th VHSR service. Induced Tourism/Recreation Travel for vermont times oetween New York City,

III.3.3.b

VHSR service would significantly reduce travel Vermont and major population concentrations in Montreal, Albany, and Poughkeepsie.

As discussed in the econoQic impact assessment in Section IV, the introduction of the proposed VHSR service could lead to imp6rtant new tourism, recreation, and associated economic development throughout the corr idor, particular ly in Vermont. Such development, in turn, could lead to sizable increases in induced tourism and recreation travel demand from totally new development not currently reflected in popUlation and economic projections for this region. The pr 0 ject ions of the vol ume of induced tour I sra and recr ea t ion travel and related VHSR ridership are highly speculative for several reasons. There are no well-documented instances in the Uni ted Sta tes or abroad of how a VHSR sys tern has induced tr a vel demand and development to a popular but largely undeveloped region close to ma jor popula tion cen ter s. Also, 1 i nu ted data a r e avai 1able describing tne trip purpose and origin-destination patterns of existing tourism and recreation visitors to Vermont. A series of assumptions were used to project induced tourism and recreation travel. These assumptions and the resulting VHSH projections are presented and dlscussed later in Section III. 111.4 TRAVEL DEMAND AND VHSR PROJECTIONS

The VHSR ridership projections ior the scenarios described in Section II are presented in the following discussion. It should be noted that the VHSR ridership projections for the Baseline

III. 21

scenario

also used for both (i.e., Scenarios 6 and 7). gc~nario 1 - Baseline

were

Reduced

Infrastructure

scenarios

III.4.1

projections of VHSR ridership for the Baseline are discussed and presen ted below. The four tr avel mar kets (in tr a-cor r idor tr ips, external trips, induced trips, and tourism trips) are discussed separately. III.4.1.a Intra-Corridor Travel

The base-year travel volumes estimated for each zonal interchange were projected for the forecast years 1995 and 2005 based on historical growth. The same growth factor was used for each zonal interchange within a regional interchange for both trip purposes. The resulting travel e s t i ma t es , aggregated by regional interchange, are shown for each trip purpose in EXhibit 111-8 under the heading "Travel Trend Growth." It is projected that approximately 11.4 million intercity trips will be made within the corridor in 1995, and approximately 14.5 million trips will be made in 2005. Nearly half of these trips will be made between the New York City region and tne Albany and Montreal regions. Forecast-year VHSR projections were made using tne four modal spl it models developed and cal ibra t e d in t n is study. The r o r ecast-year travel character istics were assumed to De tne s ar.ie as those for the base year except for air service frequencles and fares and the VHSR travel times, freyuencies, and tares. Air fares were assumed to De equal to 75 percent of current air fares. Rail fares were assumed to be equal to 150 percent of 1982 AMTRAK fares, where applicable. Some rail access characteristics were also changed since the VHSR service bypasses several existin~ rail stations within the corridor. Forecast-year projections for VHSR intra-corridor travel are shown for each regional interchange in Exhibit 111-9. The projection of ridership for the entire corridor is about 1.7 million passengers in 1995 and about 2.1 million passengers in 2005. Of these trips, abou t 45 pe rcen t ar e between New Yor k Ci ty and Al bany, and abou t 25 percent are between New York City and Montreal. The overall VHSR corridor modal shares of approximately 15 percent in the years 1995 and 2005 is Significantly higher than the 6.6 percent rail share in 1982. The rail modal Share is projected to increase from 16.5 percent to 20.4 percent between 1~82 and 2005 for the New York City to Albany interchange and from 5.6 percent to 31.4 percent b e t we en 1982 and 2005 for the New York City to Montreal interchange.

1II.22

EXHIBIT III-8 INTRA-CORRIDOR PERSON TRIP PROJECTIONS Socioeconomic Growth 2,636,000 (51.9)* 3,701,000 (51.9) 4,714,000 (51.9) 444,000 (53.0) 673,000 (53.1) 900,000 (53.1) 541,000 (30.5) 875,000 (30.5) 1,214,000 (30.5) 1,223,000 (17.5) 1,592,000 (17.5) 1,902,000 (17.6) 1,754,000 (54.0) 2,906,000 (54.0) 4,163, 000 (54.0) 11,000 (29.8) 20,000 (29.8) 29,000 (29.8) 7,000 (35.6) 13,000 (35.6) 19,000 (35.5) 11,000 (14.4) 16,000 (14.4) 22,000 (14.4)

City Pair New York 1982 1995 2005 New York 1982 1995 2005 New York 1982 1995 2005 New York 1982 1995 2005 - Albany Actual Projection Projection - Rutland Actual Projection Projection - Burlington Actual Projection Projection - Montreal Actual Projection Projection

Travel Trend Growth 2,636,000 (51.9)* 3,749,000 (51.9) 4,916,000 (51.9) 444,000 (53.0) 631,000 (53.0) 828,000 (53.0) 541,000 (30.5) 746,000 (30.5) 955,000 (30.5) 1,223,000 (17.5) 1,408,000 (17.5) 1,569,000 (17.5) 1,754,000 (54.0) 2,495,000 (54.0) 3,272,000 (54.0) 11,000 (29.8) 15,000 (29.8) 20,000 (29.8) 7,000 (35.6) 9,000 (35.6) 12,000 (35.6) 11,000 (14.4) 12,000 (14.4) 14,000 (14.4)

Poughkeepsie - Albany 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection Poughkeepsie - Rutland 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection Poughkeepsie - Burlington 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection Poughkeepsie - Montreal 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection

* Figures in parentheses indicate percentage of trips made for

business purposes.

III.23

EXHIBIT 111-8 (Continued)

INTRA-GORRlDOR PERSON TRIP PROJECTIONS

City Pair Albany 1982 1995 2005 Albany 1982 1995 2005 Burlington Actual Projection Projection Montreal Actual Projection Projection

Travel Trend Growth 44,000 (25.2)* 61,000 (25.2) 78,000 (25.2) 125,000 (5.0) 144,000 (5.0) 160,000 (5.0) 35,000 (4.4) 40,000 (4.4) 44,000 (4.4) 1,516,000 (4.6) 2,090,000 (4.6) 2,676,000 (4.6) 8,346,000 (36.2) 11,401,000 (37.1) 14,544,000 (37.7)

Socioeconomic Growth 44,000 (25.2)* 74,000 (25.2) 106,000 (25.2) 125,000 (5.0) 167,000 (5.1) 206,000 (5.0) 35,000 (4.4) 50,000 (4.4) 63,000 (4.4) 1,516,000 (4.6) 2,380,000 (4.6) 3,162,000 (4.6) 8,346,000 (36.2) 12,467,000 (36.4) 16,501,000 (36.9)

Rutland - Montreal 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection Burlington - Montreal 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection TOTAL 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection

Figures in parentheses indicate percentage of trips made for business purposes. Column totals may not sum due to rounding.

Note:

111.24

EXHIBIT

III-<.:!

SCENARIO 1 - BASELINE RIDERSHIP PROJECTION

Intra-Corridor Trips

1995 VHSR
City Pair New York - Albany Hew York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Albany Albany Rutland - Albany - Rutland - Burlington - Montreal Ridership

% Share

20U5 VHSR
Ridership
1,003,0(J0

% Share

765,000 75,000 129,000

442,000 143,OU(}
'Ie

20.4 11.9
17.3 31.4

2U.4 11.9
17.3 31.4

98,000
166,000

492 ,OUO
Idd,000

5.7
0.9 55.0
L6.9

5.7

*
6,000 4,UUU
17,000 47,000

U.9

5,UOO 3,UOO

20.S!

- Burlington - Montreal - Hontreal - Montreal

l:3,lJOO 42,OUO 4,OUO 70,OUO

1,692,000

n.4
2<.:!.3

Ll.4
LoS!. 3

lU.O ~ 3 .. 14.8

4,000
89,000

lU.O
3.3

Burlington TOTAL

...

2,115,000

14.5

Indicates

fewer than 500 annual

trips.

Note:

Column totals may not sum due to rounding.

111.25

Exhibit III-I0 presents the projections of VHSR ridership for each regional interchange Dj trip purpose for the forecast year 20U5. Approximately 51 percent of proJected VHSR trips are for business, and tne remaining 49 percent are for other purposes. '.i.'hese percen tages, howeve r , vary great Ly among the r e q i onal in te rcnanges, reflecting t n e differences in the mix of purposes ill travel. For each regional interchange, the VHSR moJal share is higher for business trips than for non-business trips. ~llis is largely attributable to the lower automooile travel cost for non-business trips, an a s s ump t i o n based on a higner e s t i raa t e d au t ornob i Le occupancy for non-business trips than for business trips. Discounted fares for non-business trips were not assumed for the VHSR system or other modes. Exhibit III-II presents the base and forecast-year ma t e s by regional interchange for all four intercity business trips only. Exhibit 111-12 presents tne estimates for non-business trips. The rail trips identified as being "on conventional sent rail trips between zone 3 and the Albany region. are more directly served by the conventional rail sently operating than by the VHSR system. travel estiwades for corresponainy

rail" repreThese trips service pre-

Exhibits III-II and 111-12 show that automobiles w i Ll carry the greatest volume of intercity trips w i t h i n the corridor, even if the VHSR system is i mpLeme n t e d . For most r e q i o na I interchanges, however, the VHSR system is projected to carry a significant proportion of trips. The VHSR p r o j e c t i ou s are generally n i qrre r than the air projections, with total VHSk ridership projected at mor e than double the volume of air trips. This is primarily due to air fares being high com~ared witn VHSR fares. 111.4.1.b Api ship External Trips r 0j ect VHS.i.{ rid e r -

vat - poi n tan a 1y s i s t e c n n i que \1 as use d top for the following groups of external trips:

New YorK t rip s bet wee n c i t ~e sin \"est ern Utica) (duffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, PoughKeepsie and ~ew YorK City; and trips between Burlington a n d Northeast cities soutn of New York City Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington).

State and

Corridor ('fr ent on,

Estimates vided oy presented

of 1982 rail v o l ume s for these i n t e r c ha nq e s were i-./YSDOTbased on Ail'l'RAK ticket data. These volumes in Exhibit 111-13.

proare

111.26

EXHIBlT III-lO SCB~ARIO 1 - BASELINE RIDERSHIP PROJECTION: Hode Split by Purpose Forecast Year 2005 Business Total Demand 2,551,000 439,000 292,000 274,000
1,766,OUO

INTRA-CO~DOR

TRIPS

Interchange New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie - Albany Poughkeepsie - Rutland Poughkeepsie - Burlington Poughkeepsie - Montreal Albany - Burlington Albany - Montreal Rutland - Montreal Burlington - Montreal TOTAL

VHSR Ridership 697,000 66,000 70,UOO 94,000

Share 27.3 15.0 ~4.1 34.4 6.7 U.9 65.U 72.4 37.9 53.9 19.5 7.4 19.5

Non-Business VHSR Total Ridership Demand 307,000 32,OUO ~5,OOli 398,uUU 7U,000 2,306,000 389,000 663,UOO 1,29'),OUO 1,.)00,OUO 14,000 7,000 12,00U 5Cl,OUO 152,OUO 42,000 2,553,000 9,050,000

Share 13.0 ~.3 14.4 30.7 4.6 0.9

4~.5

ars.coo *
3,000 1,000 7,000 4,000

6,000 4,000 2,uOO 20,OUO 8,000 2,000 123,000 5,486,000

*
4,OUO 2,00U 9,000 43,000 4,000 80,000 1,044,000

19.3
D.b

27.9 9.5 3.1 11.5

*
9,000 1,071,000

x Indicates fewer than 500 annual trips. Note: Column totals may not sum due to rounding.

111.27

EXHIBT III-ll ~O Intra-Corridor 1 - MSELINE

&Js:i.ne.ssTrips by nxie of TIa~l

Auto Intercharge NewYork - Albany 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection NewYork - RutLm:i 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection NewYork - Burlington 3982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection
New York - Imtrea1

Bus
% Trips % l'rips

Air
% l'rips

Rail % Total Trips

Trips

851,000 1,038,000 1,361.,000

62.2 53.3 53.3

199,000 2l.5,WO 282,000

14.5 11.1 11..1

83, (XX) 146,000 191,000

6.1 7.5 7.5

235,000 17.L 547,00V* 28.1 717,CJi.X.X9 ~d.1

1, 368, UIXl 1,945,000 2,551,000

m,uw
245,000 32.1.,000

89.9 73.2 73.2

15,000 10,000 13,000

6.3

7,U\.X)
3U,WO 39,000

V:~
2.';

3.1 Cl.~ 8.9

~,ooo
)U,OOO
6O,COJ

U.7 15.0 15.0

235,000 335,LDO 439,000

1.30,000 89,WU ill, 000

79.0 38.9 ::%.9

1,000 2,000 3,000

0.9
0.9 0.9

31,000 82,000 105, OW

18.H 36.1 36.1

2,c.ul j5,UOO 70,000

1.4 L4.1 24.1

165,UOO 228,000 292,LW

1982 Actual 1995 Projection ZOOS Projection

35,000 38,000 43,000

16.2 15.6 15.6

9,OCO 10,000 12,000

4.1 4.2 4.L

165,000 ill, 000 125,000

77.5 4:;.7 45.7

5,000 2.2 34.4 85,WO 94,CXXJ 34.4

2.1.4,000 :L4b,OOO 274,000

Poughkeepsie - Albany 1982 Actual 938,000 1.995 Projection 1,255,000 1,646,000 2005 Projection Poughkeepsie - Rutland 1982 Actual 1.995 Projection 2005 Projection Pooghk.eepsie - Bur~ 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection

99.1 93.2 93.2

1,000 1,000 2,000

0.1 0.1 0.1

0
0 0 U

O.U

0.0
0.0

8,000 9U,000 11.8,000

U.8 6.7 6.7

947,000 1,347,000 1,766,000

3,000 5,000

6,000
1,000 1,000 1,000

99.4 99.1 99.1

0 0
0

0.0 (J.U

0.0

G.O
0.0
7.J.b 7.7 7.7

U.O
0.0
(j.0

0
0

0.0 0.9

0.9
0.0 05.0 65.0

3,000 5,000 6,000

:L6.4 27.4 27.4

U 0 0

2,000
U

0
2,OW

2,()()J

O.U

3,000

3,OOU 4,000

* Includes 15,000 trips on conventi0031 rail. @ Inc.luies 20,000 trips on ccnventional rail.
Note; Row and co.1unn cocal.s nay not sum due to ~.

III. 28

EXHIBIT
~O Intra-G:>rridor

m-u

(O::nt::im.ted)

1 - Bi\SE.LIl'iE TIips by M:xie of 'ful-..el

fusiness

Auto Intarcharge Poughkeee - llintrea1 1982 Actual J.9Y5 Projection 2005 Projection Albany 1982 1995 2005 Albany 1982 1995 2005 Burli~ClIl Actual Projection Projection M::!ntreal Actual Projection Projection Trips % Tri?,

Bus %

Air Tri?, % 'ltips

Rail % Total TI:i?,

0 9,000 8,000 11,000

19.6 20.8 20.8

0.0

I,M
0 0

V.O
0.0

1,000 1,000 1,000

57.3 6.8 6.8

0
1,000

I,M

:8.1 72.4 72.4

2,000 2,000 2,000

83.5 54.6 54.6

6.4 4.U

4.0

1,000 1,000 1,000

10.1

a
b,OU(J

3.6 3.6

7,000

U.U 37.9 37.9

11,000 15,000 2U,000

4,000 2,000 3,000

71.5 34.2 34.2

1,000 1,OOU 1,000

ll.5 7.5 7.5

0 0

0 0 0

1.8 4.3 4.3

1,000 4,000 4,000

15.2 53.9 53.9

6,(0)

7,0CIJ
8,000

Rutland - I-bntreal 1982 Actual ~95 Projection 200'::;Projection

Burl ington - M:mtreal

1,000 1,000 2,000

85.1 77.0 77.0

o
0

13.7 1.4 1.4

0.6

l.O
:.:..0

0 U 0

0.6
19.5 19.5

2,lXXJ 2,000 2,000

1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection TOrAL 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection

66,000 85,000 109,000

95.2 89.U 1;9.U

3,000 3,000 4,000

4.2 3.3

V
0

0.0 0.3
0.3

j.3

U 7,000 9,OW

0.5 7.4 7.4

6~,UOO
96,OOU

123,M

2,251,000 2,768,000 3,616,000

74.4 65.4

b5.9

23),000 243,000 316,000

7.6 5.7

291,OW
371,oov 462,UW

9.b
8.1; 1;.4

5.8

2.5J,UW ~7,WO* 1,U91,~

8.4 ~U.O 19.9

3,024,000 4,230,000 5,486,0lXl

"* Incl1!des 15,000 trips @ lncluies 20,000 trips

Note:

on ccnveo.tiona1 rail. on ccnventional rail.

Row and coluon totals

my not sum due to rouodirg.

III.

29

EXHIBIT

ur-iz

g:&'WUO 1 - MSELINE Intra-Con:i.dor r-knrBusiness Tl:i.ps by Ivkxieof 'llavel

Auto Interchange NewYork - Albany 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection HewYork - Rutland 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection NewYork - furlington 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection NewYork - t1Jntreal 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 !:'rojection Tl:i.ps % Tl:i.ps

Bus

Air % Tl:i.ps % Trips

Rail
01 10

Total Trips

725,000 1,023,000 1,341,000

57.1 56.7 56.7

298,000 423,000 554,000

23.5 23.4 23.4

45,000 94,000 124,000

3.5 5.2 5.2

201,UOO :&4,000* 347,~

15.9 14.6 14.6

1,2b9,<.XX> 1,004,000 2,366,000

180,000 236,000 309,000

86.4 79.5 79.5

22,000 18,000 24,000

10.7 6.1 6.1

4,000

as.ceo
24,000

1.9 6.1 6.1 13.4 18.7 18.7

2,M 25,000 32,UUJ

1.0 b.3 8.3

208,000 297,000 389,UXl

304,000 335,000 428, OW

81.0 04.6
tA.b

8,000 12,000 lS,LlOO

2.2 2.3 2.3

50,000 97,000 ~4,lJlO

13,UW 74,000 95,CiIJJ

3.4 14.4 14.4

376,000 51tS,OOO 663,LW

700, OW 445,000 495,000

69.4 3b.3 38.3

ill,OOJ .135,000 150,000

ll.U 11.6 11.6

lJ4,OCO 13.3 U6,LX.X.J 1~.4 251,lJCO 19.4

64,lJlX) 3) 7,WO
JIjtl,OW

0.3 3U.7

:JJ.7
0.8 4.6 4.6 1.4 O.~ 0.9

1, UlO,lUJ 1,162,000 1,295,00J

Pougbkeee - Albany 1982 Actual 799,CXXl 99.0 1995 Projection 1,lJ:l3,WU 95.2 2005 Projection 1,433,000 95.2 Poogbkeee - RutlaIXi 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection Poughkeepsie - furlington 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection 7,000 11,OOO 14,000 98.6 99.1 99.1

2,000 2,()J(J 3,UW

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

U
0

0.0 0.0 0.0

6,000
53,000

70,000

807,000 1, 14(j,(X)() 1,506,000

0 0 0

3,000 1,000 1,000

0.0 0.0 (J.O

0 0

8,000 1l,000 14,000

1,00J 2,000 3,000

34.0 36.8 36.8

a
0

0.0 0.0 0.0

66.0 13.7 13.7

a
3,000 4,000

0.0 4<;.5 49.5

4,000 6,000 7,00J

@ Inclines

* Includes 30,000 trips 40,(0) trips

on conventional rail. on ccnventiona1 rail.

Note:

Rowand colunn totals

IIBynot sum clue to

rourddrg ,

111.30

EXHIBITill -12 (UJntimJed)

s:ENARI0 1 - B!\SELINE

Intra-Corridor

lbn-ftLsiness

Trips by M:xie of 1Io~

Auto Interchange Poogbkeepsie - 1>bntreal 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection Albany 1982 1995 2005 Burlington Actual Projection Projection Trips % Trips

Bus % Trips

Air % Trips

Rail % Total 'l'r:ips

7,000 8,000 8,000

76.7 72.3 72.3

0 0 0

0.0 0.0 0.0

1,000 1, COO 1,UtX)

7.~ 8.4 8.4

1,OW 2,000 2,000

15.5 19.3 19.3

9,000 llJ,OOO 12,000

22,000 31,000 40,000

65.7 68.1 6S.1

JD,OOO 6,000 7,000

28.7 12.4 12.4

2,000 L.,WO 2,000

5.5
3.7 3.7

0 7,000 9,000

0.0 15.d 15.8

33,000 46,000 58,000

Albany - l'1Jntreal 1982 Actual 1995 Projection ZOOSProjection Rutland. - 1>bntrea1 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection

105,000 72,000 81,000

88.6 53.0 53.0

JD,OOO 13,000 14,000

8.1 9.2 9.2

0 13,000 15,000

0.1 9.8 9.8

4,000 38,000 43,000

3.2 27.9 27.9

119,000 J37,0J0 152,000

30,000 32,000 36,000

91.5 84.5 84.5

3,000 1,000 1,000

8.4 2.6 2.6

0 1,000 1,000

0.0 3.4 3.4

0 4,000 4,000

0.1 9.5 9.5

33,000 38,000 42,000

Burlirigton - 1>bntreal 1982 Actual 1,403,000 1995 Projection 1,856,CXXJ 2005 Projection 2,376,000 TCJrAL 1982 Actual 1995 Projection 2005 Projection

96.9 93.1 93.1

39,000 56,CX)() 72,000

2.7 2.8 2.8

0 20,000 25,000

0.0 LO 1.0

5,000 62,000 80,000

0.3 3.1 3.1

1,447,000 1,994,CXXJ 2,553,000

4,285,000 5,143,000 6,565,000

80.5 7L7 72.5

503,000 605,000 840,000

9.4 9.3 9.3

2..38,lX.X.J 473,000 569,000

4.5 6.6 6.3

L97,OOO 8'::10,000* 1,U84,~

5.6 12.4 12.0

5,322,000 7,171,000 9,058,000

Incltrles

@ Inc.ltrles

30,000 trips 40,000 trips

on conventiooal on ccnvention:ll

rail. rail.

Note:

Row and colunn totals

my not sum due to rot.n:rling.

III.31

EXHIBIT SCENARIO External

III-13

1 - BASELINE Trip Estimates

Interchange* Burlington Burlington Burlington Burlington Subtotal - Washington - Baltimore - Philadelphia - Trenton

198~ AMTRAK Volume 7,UOO 1,000 4,000 1,000 13,000

198~ VHSR Estimates 19,OUO 4,000 13,000 4,uOO 41,000

1995 VHSR Projection 27,OUO 6,QuU 18,000 6,000 57,000

;,2.005 VHSR Projection 34,uOO 8,000 2.3,OUO 8,000 73,000

New York - Utica New York - Syracuse New York - Rochester New York - Buffalo Subtotal

43,000 42,000

53,000 50,OuU 46,000 25,000 174,000

73,000 70,000 63,000 J5,000 24U,UOO

93,000 89,000
811 ,000

3b,000
22,OUO 145,000

45,OUU 308,000

Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Subtotal TOTAL

- Utica - Syracuse - Rochester - Buffalo

2,000 4,UOO 4,UOO 4,uOO 14,UUU In,uOU

3,OUO 6,UOO 5,UOU 4,000 Id,OOO 234,UUO

4,000 tI,UU0 7,UOO b,OOO 25,000 :323,OUO

j,uUO lU,OOO 10,000

lj, CJUO

32,UOO 413,OUO

* Many of the cities included in this analysis have more than one ~lTRAK station. Volumes for these stations have been aggregated for this analysis.

Note:

Column

totals may not sum due to rounding.

111.32

The cross-elasticity intercity modal split model adapted from the CN27 model wa s used to estimate the rail modal shares for tnese interchanges based on 1982 travel service characteristics, and then again after ad jus t i nq the rail mode service -cnaracteristics to reflect the proposea VHSR service. These adJustments were loade by assuming that all external rail tr avel er s would uti 1 iz e the VHSR system to take advantage of the travel time savings offered. It was also assumed tnat some of tne trains o~erating between New Yor k Ci ty arid Albany that do not continue to ivIonre a I woul d oe t operated along the western Hew York State corr idor to Buffalo, implying either cornpa t i b Le traction power in both corridors or a change of power uni ts at Al ban y , Therer:ore no transfer is necessary for the fir st group of external tr ips. A tr ans fer time of 3U m i nu t e s was assumed for the second group o r tr ips to access connecting service in New York City. The modal snares estimated using the VHS~ service were divided by the modal shares estimated for the oase-year service to der ive factors reflecting the impact of the service improvement offered by the VHSR system. Separate factors were derived for each external tr ip in tercnange. These factor s wer e then mul tipl ied by the corresponding 1982 rail travel volumes. The results are listed in Exhibit 111-13 under the column labeled "1982 VHSR Estimates. " These estimates represent a 36 percent increase in ridersnip over the actual rail volumes due to the VHSR system. Although the trip interchanges involving New York City and Pougnkeepsie represent higher volumes than those involving Burlington, tne Burlington interchange volumes are estimated to increase mucn mo r e significan tly . Th is is due not only to the tr avel time sa v ings of fered by the VHSR system, but Dy the improved frequency of service (from one train per day to six). The improved frequency of serVlce also contributed to the modal share increases projected for intra-corr Ld o r travel to and f r ora Bur lington. VHSR projections of externa.l tr ips for 1995 and 2UU5 were then derived by applying a compounded annual growtn factor of ~.5 percent to the 1982 VHSR estimates. This is the same growth factor used ta estimate person trips tor the Albany-Burlington, Paughkeeps ie-Bur 1 ington, New Yo rk Ci ty-Bur 1 ingtan, and Bur 1 i nqt.orrMontreal interchanges. The forecast-year projections are also presented in Exhibit III-13. The VHSR external r Iue rs n i p projections total approximately 323,000 passengers in 1995 and 413,000 passengers in 2005. Approximately 75 percent of these passengers utilize the VHS~ system between New York City and Albany.

111.33

III.4.l.c

Induced

err ips

The induced demand formula techniyue discussed previously in this section was used to est imate induced VHS.H.travel for e a cn of the regional intercnanges except tile ~ew York City-Albany interchange. Induced demand f or the New York Ci t y-Albany inte rcnange was estimated by applying an Lnduc eme n t factor of IS percent to the previous estimate of intra-corridor VHSR trips. 'The results for each interchange are presented in Exhibit 111-14. induced demand is projected to be approximately 283,000 The total and approximately 349,OUO riders in 2005. 'l'hese riders in 1995 represent about 17 percent of the VHS.H. intra-corridor estimates projections. ridership I1I.4.1.d 'rour i sm fErips

The f o Ll o w i nq analysis indicates in a general way the potential induced recreation and tourism travel demand and VJ:LSR r i de r s n i p for t rip s 0 r i en t e d t 0 Ve r m 0 n t. As des c rib e din Se c t ion I V, t 11 e previous transportation infrastructure change most analosous to the proposed VHSK service was the opening of Interstate Highways 89 and 91 in Vermont, which occurred in 1965. In tbe five yea r s aft e r the 0 pen i n':J 0 f t n e s e fa c i 1 i tie s , the vol UIII e 0 f t 0 U r ists to Vermont grew to a level 1.5 million visitors a o ov e that which wo u l d n a v e been expected based upon prior t ou r i sra trends. In tne 1970s, the volume of tourists in Ve r mon t 9rew at an annual rate s i mi La r to tbat observed before the ope n i nq of tne interstates. A series o f a s s ump t i o n s were used to p r o j e c t induced t ou r i sra and recreation VHSR travel. These assumptions are suojective, and the resultins projections or travel are all illustration ot one possible outcome resulting from new development in Vermont.
'I'h e

a s s ump t i on s made
and recreation o

tourism

and the steps followed scenario were:

'to

prepare

tile

induced

The incremental volume of tourism/recreation t ravel observed after the opening of tile interstates (1.5 million v i s i t o r s Zy e a r ) is assumed to occur due to the Lmp Leme n t a t i o n of the VHSR system. None of this instantaneously service, but by 2005. incremental with the the entire volume would introduction volume would be of be realized tne VHSR realized

The entire volume of induced travel is assumed to De made to and from Vermont. Based on current estimates of looging capacity in Vermont, 65 percent is assumed to be made to and from the

111.34

EXHIBIT

III-14

SCENARIO 1 - BASELINE
Estimates of Induced

Travel

1995
%

2005
%

Ci ty Pa ir New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie - Albany - Rutland - Burlington - Montreal

Induced Trips 115,000 10,000 43,000 88, UOO 5,000

of IntraCorridor Trips 15 (assigned)

Induced Trips 151,000 D,U{JO 55,UOO 98,000 b,OOO

of IntraCorridor Trips 1.) (assigned)

Ll
3,j

13 33 20
3

20
j

*
1,000 1,000 4,000 10,UOO

o
21 22 31 25 11 7 17

*
1,UOU 1,000

2l

22 31 25 11 7 17

Albany - Burlington Albany - Montreal Rutland - llontreal - Hontreal

5,0(;0
12,000

*
5,000 283,000

*
7,000 349,00U

Burlington TOTAL

Indicates

fewer than SOU annual trips.

Note:

Column totals may not sum due to rounding.

111.35

Burlington region, and the remaining 35 percent would be made to and from the Rutland region. o o
Of

the induced travel, originate in the U.S.,

80
d.Ud

percent
20 percent

is

assumed
in Canada.

to

Half of the U.S.-cased travel is assumed to originate within the VHSR corridor, and the other half outsiae the corridor. Although the new development in vermont w ou Ld be induced by the introduction of the VHSR service, this development would, in turn, attract trips from locations outside the VHSR service area, such as Boston, Hartford, Springfield, and New Hampshire, where access to Vermont is relatively convenient. the U.S.-based travel originating within the corridor, 80 percent is assumed to originate in the New York City region, 15 percent in tne Albany region, and 5 percent in the Poughkeepsie region. This jUdgment was made because there would be a dramatic reduction in travel time between New York City and Vermont with VHSR service.
Of Of the Canadian-based travel, 80 percent assumed to originate in the Montreal region, 20 percent in areas outside the VHSR corridor.

is and

These assumptions yielded the estimates presented in EXhibit 111-15 of induced tourism and recreation travel a n the VHSR cor r idor between Ve rmo n t and the other reg ions for the for ecas t year 2005. A total of 1,680,000 annual person trips is projected. The induced tourism travel estimates are larger tnan projections of intra-corridor trips for the year 2UU5 ror the Poughkeepsie-~utland, PougnKeepsie-Burlington, Albany-Burlington, and Rutland-Montreal regional interchanges. For all but the Aloany-Rutland and Bur lington-i'lontreal regional interchanges, projections of induced tuurisll1 and recreation travel on the VHSR system inter Changes were der ived o y rnu L tiplying the pe rson tr ip es tima tes for each interchange by the cor responding VHSR modal share estimated for non-business travel for intra-corridor trips. No VHSR trips are projected for the Albany-Rutlanu interchange, as the proposed VHSR service between these regions is relatively inconvenient. For the Burlington-Montreal interchange, a revised VHSR modal share was computed by excluding zonal interchanges 12 -15 and 12 -18, as these inter changes cons ist mainly of short trips. The revised VHSR modal share (6.04 percent) was then used to project VHSR ridership.

III.36

EXHIBIT III-15
SCENARIO 1 - BASELINE

Induced

Tourism

and Recreation Travel to and from Vermont Forecast Year 2005

City Pair New York - Rutland New York - Burlington Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Albany Albany Rutland - Rutland - Burlington

Total Annual Visits 168,000 3ll,lJOO 10, ~OU I~,50(J 31,5(J0 58,500 i:l4,000 156,000 840,CJOO

Annual Person Trips 330,UOO 024,000

:Ll , li au

Annual VhSR Trips :Lb,UOO 90,U(J0

*
l~,u()O

39,00U 63,000 117,000 168,000 312,000 1,680,000

- Rutland - Burlington - Montreal - Hontreal

IH,OOO
16,000 19,000 190,00U

Burlington TOTAL

* Indicates fewer than 5UO annual trips.

Note: Column totals may not sum due to rounding.

111.37

The projections of induced tourism and recreation travel on the VHSH. system in the forecast year 2005 are presented in Exh i b- i t I I I -1 5 Ab0 utI 9 0 , 0 0 0 rid e r s are pro j e c t e d The s e pro j e c t ion s represent the scenario outlined in this discussion~ Many scenarios are feasible; the one presented here is but one possibility. of other VdSR studies indicated that estimates of induced travel used in this prefeasibility study may De conservative. If a decision is ultimately made to undertake a full feasibility st udy of VHSH serv ice, the leve 1 of induced t ra vel mu s t be r esearched in greater detail to provide a sounaer basis for this estimate. IIl.4.1.e Total Demand

A review

Projections of total r i o e r s h i p for eacn station-to-station interchange on the VHSH system are presented for the two forecast years in Exhibits 111-16 and 111-17. Tnese p r o j e c t i o ns represent t ne sum of the intra-corridor travel, external travel, and induced demand projections previously discussed. Approximately 2.3 million riders are proJected to utilize tne VHSR s y s t ern in 1995, increasing to app r ox i mate Ly 3.1 million riders in 20 0 5 AD U t h d 1 f 0 f the set 0 rip s will be mad e bet wee n New Yor k City and Albany. l.'.JewYo r x City-Montreal is projected to be the second neaviest interchange, witb a no u t 2::; percent of the total corridor volume in 1995, and about 20 percent in 20U5. Total projected ridership on-board the VHSR system between stations is presented for the two forecast years in Exhibit III-lb. Here, the heaviest volumes by far are on the links between New York c i ty and Albany. These volumes are more tnan d oub l e the volumes projected for links north of Albany. 111.4.2 Scenario

2 - Baseline

With

Socioeconomic

Growth

Projections of VHSJ:{ ridersnip for t n i s scenario were made using the same procedures described for the Baseline. However, the results differ due to t n e methodology used to p r o j e c t intra-corridor person trips. Projections of intra-corridor person trips for tnis scenario were made using a s oc i o e c o nom i c model. '1'11is model uses projections of population and per capita income for each zone to estimate travel growtn in e ac n zonal interchange. The r e su Lts o t these pr o j e c tions are aggregated by regional intercnange for the forecast years and compared to the results using trend q r owt.n in 8xhibit 111-8 beginning on ~age 111-23. The pr o j e c t i o ns using the socioeconomic model are slightly ni q n e r tnan those usiny trend growtn for most intercnanges. Overall, the socioeconomic pr o j ec t i.c n is about 9 percent nigher for 1995 and about 13 percent hiyner for 2005.

111.38

EXHIBIT VHSR RIDERSHIP Scenario

III-lt>

(Trips in Thousands) - 1995

1 - Baseline

City Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Albany Albany Rutland - Albany - Rutland

Intra-Corridor Trips 765 75 129 442 143

'Ie

External Trips 240

Induced Trips 115 10

Tourism Trips

Total Trips 1,120 85 230 530 173

'Ie

57

43 88

2S

S
'Ie

- Burlington - Montreal

5 3 13 42 4
7U ---

1 1
4

6
4

- Burlington - Montreal - Montreal - Montreal

17 52 4 75 ---

10
'Ie

Burlington TOTAL

S 323
2b3

1,692

'L.,297

'Ie

Indicates

fewer than 500 annual

trips.

Note:

Rowand

column

totals may not sum due to rounding.

III.39

EXHIBITIII-17 VHSR RIDERSHIP Scenario (Trips in Thousands) - 2005

1 - Baseline

City Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Albany Albany Rutland - Albany - Rutland

Intr a- Corridor Trips 1,003

External Trips 308

Induced Trips 151 13

Tourism Trips

Total Trips 1,462

28

139 3b3 591

166 4Sl2 188

73

55 98

32

'2L7

*
6

*
1 1

*
19

*
27 4

- Burlington - Montreal

4
17

- Burlington - Montreal - Montreal - Montreal

5 12

18

40 58

47
4 89 2,115 413

*
7

16 19 190

21 114 3,068

Burlington TOTAL

349

Indicates

fewer than 500 annual

trips.

Note:

Rowand

column

totals may not sum due to rounding.

II1.40

EXHIBITIII-1S

~CENARlO 1 - BASELINE On-Board Travelers Between VriSR Stations

1995 Montreal 666,000* Burlington 844,000 Rutland 924,000 Albany 2,149,000 Poughkeepsie 1,965,000 New York New York Poughkeepsie 2,575,OUO Albany 2,!:i33,OlJO Rutland 1,244,000 Burlington 1,126,000 Montreal 7B9,00O 20U5

Link volumes indicate the sum of VHSR passengers traveling over

each segment of the system.

111.41

VHSR pro jections for in tr a -cor r i dor travel based on t n e sac i 0e c oriorai c r e s u Lt s are presented in Exhibit 111-19. These projections are slightly nigher than those for the Baseline presented in Exhibit I1I-IU on page 111.27. However, the modal snares are lower. This is oecause most of the aaditional person trips projected USIng the socioeconomic model are between zonal pairs that are not as conveniently served by the VHSR system as trips between Central BUSlness Distrlcts. The projections for this scenar external tr ips. were made using of external trips for tne Baseline were also io as the socioeconomic model was not applied Projections of induced trips and tour ism the procedures described for the Baseline. used for tr ips

Projections of total ridership for each interchange on the VHSR system are summarized for the two forecast years in Exhibit 111-20 and 111-21. Approximately 2.4 million passengers on tne VHSR system ar e pr 0 jected tor 1995, increas ing to appr o x i ina tely 3.2 mi 1lion passengers in 2005. 111.4.3 Scenario 3 - Baseline With No Travel Growth

Projections of VHSR ridership for this scenario were maue using the s a me procedures described for the Baseline, but with intracorridor person travel volumes assumed to r erna i n at 1982 levels. Howeve r , the modal spli t of travel was allowed to cnange to reflect VHSR service. External travel volumes were assumed to remain at 1982 volumes as well. No induced tourism travel va s assumed. Projections of total r i de r s n i p for each intercnange on tne VHSR system are summarized in Exnioit 111-22. Since no travel yrowth was assumed, these estimates are applicaole for ooth torecast years. Approximately 1.7 million riders per year dre prOJected to utilize the VHSR system in tnis scenario. 111.4.4 projections the same assumption increased these cost Mode Auto Bus Air VHSR Scenario 4 Energy Price Increase

of VHSR ridership for this scenario were made using procedures described for the Baseline, but with the that a doubling of the price of crude oil would lead to costs for all modes of transportation. Estimates of increases were developed by NYSDOT and are listed below: Increase in 11.5 6.7 22.1 3.7 Travel percent percent percent percent fares costs used were for inco s t/ Fare

These cost increases were applied to the line haul the Baseline. In addi tion, station access/egress creased by the estiIrlated rate for automobile costs.

111.42

EXHIBIT SCENARIO

Ill-19

2 - BASf.LlNE WI TH S OC IOECONOMI C Ridership Projection Intra-Corridor Trips

caowr H

City Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie - Albany

1995 VHSR Ridership

]L6,

Share 1~.6 11.4 16.6 30.7 5.7 0.9 54.7 26.6 21.1 29.0

2U05 VHSR Ridership

--lb.9
11.0

Share

ooo

ssz.ouo
9~,OUO 195,000 577,lJUU 239~00O

77,000 146, UlIO 489,UOO l67,UOO

16.0 3U.3 5.7 0.9 54.5 26.5 20.9 28.9 9.7 3.0 13.3

Poughk ee ps Le - Rutland Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Albany Albany Rutland - Burlington - Montreal

*
7,000 4,UUO 16,000 49,000 5,OUO 74,uOO 1,759,UUU

*
11,000

6,OO(J
22,OCJO 6CJ,UOO 6,vOO 95,000 2,LU2,CJUU

- Burlington - Hontreal - Montreal - Montreal

9.7
3.1 14.1

Burlington TOTAl..

Indicates

fewer than 500 annual

trips.

Note:

Column

totals may not sum due to rounding.

II1.43

EXHIBIT III -;W VHSR RIDERSHIP (Trips in Thousands) Scenario 2 - Baseline With Socioeconomic Growth - 1995 Intra-Corridor Trips 726 77 146 489 167 25 57 External Trips
240

City Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie - Albany Poughkeepsie - Rutland

Induced Trips

Tourism Trips

Total Trips 1,075 87 250 576 198

ios
10
4~

86
6

'"
7 4 16 49 5 74 1,759 323

'"
1 1

'"
8

Poughkeepsie - Burlington Poughkeepsie - Montreal Albany - Burlington Albany - Montreal Rutland - Montreal Burlington - Montreal TOTAL

5 21 61 5 79 2,365

5 12 1 5 284

'"Indicates fewer than 500 annual trips. Note: Rowand column totals may not sum due to rounding.

III.

44

EXHIBIT IIl-2l VHSR RIDERSHIP (Trips in Thousands) Scenario 2 - Baseline With Socioeconomic Growth - 2005 Intra-Corridor Trips
892 99 195 577 239
'/(

City Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie - Albany Poughkeepsie - Rutland

External Trips
308

Induced Trips
134 13

Tourism Trips

Total Trips
1,334

26

139

73

63

85

416
703 279

126
32

*
2
1 7

'/(

*
32 7

Poughkeepsie - Burlington Poughkeepsie - Montreal Albany - Burlington Albany - Montreal Rutland - Montreal Burlington - Montreal TOTAL

11
6 22.

19

18

47
74

60
6

15
1 7 16

22

95
2,202

18 183

120 3,174

413

376

Indicates fewer than SUO annual trips. Rowand column totals may not sum due to rounding.

Note:

III.~5

EXHIBIT III-22
VHSR RIDERSHIP Scenario 3 - Baseline (Trips in Thousands)

With No Travel Growth - 1995, 2005

Ci ty Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Hontreal Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie - Albany - Rutland

Intra-Corridor Trips 538 53 94

304

External Trips 174

Induced Trips 81 7

Tourism Trips

Total Trips 793 60

167

41

31
77

461 122

101

18

*
4 3
9 37

*
1 1 3
9

*
4 3 12 46 4 54 1,726

- Burlington - Montreal

Albany - Burlington Albany - Hontreal Rutland - Montreal - Montreal

3
50

*
4 234 217

Burlington TOTAL

1,276

Indicates

fewer than 500 annual trips.

Note:

Rowand

column totals may not sum due to rounding.

1II.46

Projections of VHSR intra-corridor travel are presented tor the two forecast years in Ex n i o i t s 111-23 and III-24, in coinpar i son with the Baseline results. The total pr o je c t i ons ro r the Energy Pr ice Increase scenar io are approximately 4 percent higher than tho~e for the Baseline. Projections of external travel are presented for the two years in Exhibit 111-25, in cornpa r i so n with the Baseline The total projections for this scenario are approximately cent higher than those for the Baseline. forecast results. 10 per-

Projections of tourism travel are shown for the forecast year 2005 in Exhibit 111-26, in comparison with the Baseline results. The total projection for Scenario 4 is about 8 percent higher than the projection for the Baseline. Pr 0 ject ions of total rider ship for each inter change on the VHSR system are summarized for the two forecast years in EXl1ibits 111-27 and 111-28. Approximately 2.4 million riders are projected to utilize the VHSR system in 1995, increasing to approximately 3.2 million riders in 2005. IIl.4.5 Scenario 5 - Reduced Air Fares

Pr 0 ject ions of VHSR rider s n i p for th is s cenar io wer e made us ing the same procedures described for the Baseline, but witn the assumption that air carriers might respond to the increased compet it ion by r edu c i n q fares to 50 p e rc en t of c ur ren t leve Is in the VHSR corridor. The resulting projections of VHS,t{ intra-corridor travel are presented for the two forecast years in Exnibits 111-23 and 111-24, in c ompa r rso n With the Baseline results. Tne total projections for this scenario are approximately 3 percent lower than those for the Baseline. Since it was assumed that the market response by air carriers would not extend outside the VHSR corridor, prujections of external tr ips made for the Baseline were used for this scenario as well. Projections of induced tour ism tr a vel for the Reduced Ai r Far es scenar io for the forecast year 2005 are shown in Exhibit 111-26, in comparison with the Baseline results. The total projection for this scenario is about 7 percent lower than the projection for the Baseline. Pr oject ions of total rider ship for each in ter change on the VHSR system are summarized for the two forecast years in Exhibits 111-29 and III-3~. Approximately 2.2 million passengers are projected to utilize the VHSR system in 1995, increasing to approximately 3 million passengers in 2005.

III. 47

EXHIBIT VtlSR RIDERSHIP lROJECrIC1l

m-as
FCR IN.IF.A-<lRR.IIXl<. TRIPS

Fare Sensitivity

Analysis for 1995

Scenario 1Baseline InteIcilange NewYork-Albany NewYoIk-Rutland NewYork-Bllrli qston

New YoIk-+1ontreal

Total DEmand 3,749,000 631,000 746,000 1,408,000 2,495,000 15,000 9,000 12,l.O) 61,CXJO 144,lXX.l 40,000 2,090,000 1l,401,OOO

VfER

Ridership 765,000 75,000 129,000 442,000 143,000

% Share 20.4 11.9 17.3 31.4 5.7 0.9 55.0 26.9

Scenario 4Fnergy Price Increase VlfiR % Ridership Share 703,000 78,000 137,000 465,000 147,000
~O.U

Scenario 5Reduced Air Fares VrBR % Share Ridership 753,000 73,000 119,OOU 419,000 143,000

:LO.1
11.6 15.9 29.7

12.3 18.4 33.1 5.9 0.9 56.6 28.3 22.2 31.1 10.7 3.5 15.4

Foughkeepsie-Albany Poughk.eepsie-RutUmd Poughkeepst.e-Brr'ldngton Poughk.eepsie-Mcntreal Albany-Burlington A1.bany-Mcm:real Rut:land-M::mtrea1 Bllrl ington-Montreal

TOrAL

5.7
0.9 51.1 26.2

*
5,000 3,000 13,000 42,000 4,OJO 70,OCO 1,692.,OJO

*
5,000 3,OCO 14,LOO 45,()()J 4,000 74,00J 1,755,000

*
':',000 3,000 13,000 40,000 4,WO
b9,LUJ

:n.4
29.3

ao
27.8 9.8 3.3 14.4

W.O
3.3 14.8

1,641,000

Indicates

f~

than 500annual, trips.

Note:

Cohmn totals

my not sum due to :rourrliIg.

11I.48

XHLBlT ill-24

VH5RRII:lERS:ilPPROJECII~ FCRINIFA-<XRRTIXR TRIPS

Fate Sensitivity

Analysis for 2005

Scenario 1Baseline Total Inten:hange NewYork-Albany NewYork-Rut.land NewYork-Bur~ NewYoIk-Mmtrea1 fuughkeepsie-Albany Poughkeepsie-Rutland Pougbkeepsie-Bur~ton Poughkeepsie-Mcntreal Albany-Burlington Albany-Mcntreal Rutland-tbntrea1 Burlington-Mcntrea1
TCITAL DanaIXi VlR
%

Sceoario I.r RnP!gy Price Increase

VIER %

Sceoarlo 5Reduced Air Fares

VtSR %

Ridership 1,003,000 98,000 lb6,OOO 492,000 lli8,OOO

Share :lO.4 11.9 17.3 31.4 5.7

Ridership 1,026,000 .102,0Xl 176,000 519,000 192,000

Share 20.9 12.3 16.4 33.1

Ridership 988,000 96,UXJ 152,OOU

Share 20.1 11.6 15.9 29.7 5.7 0.9 51.1 20.2

4,916,000 828,000 955,OOU 1,569,CXX) 3,272,000 20,(0) 12,000 14,CXX) 78,000 160,CXX) 44,000 2,676,000 14,544,000

466,tx..O
JlS~,WU

5.9
O.~
56.6

*
6,LXXl 4,000 17,000 47,000 4,000 89,(0) 2,115,000

O.~
55.0 26.9 2.l.4

*
7,WO 4,000 17,(XJ() 50,000

*
tJ,c.uu
4,000 16,000 45,000 4,000
88,0CX)

28.3 22.2 31.1 10.7 3.5 15.1

a.u
27.8 9.8 3.3 14.1

29.3
10.0 3.3 14.5

5,000
95,000 2,192,000

2,054,000

Indicates

fewer than 500 annual, trips.

Note:

lbltmn

totals

my not sum due to rouodtrg ,

III.

49

EXHIBIT 1II-25 EXTIDU~ALTRIP STI~~TES Scenario 1Baseline 2005 1995 VHSR VHSR Projection Projection 27,000 6,000 18,000 6,000 57,000 73,000 70,000 63,000 35,OUO 240,000 4,000 8,OUO 7,000 6,0UO 25,000 323,000 34,000 8,000 23,000 8,000 73,000 93,OuO h9,OUO 80,000 45,000 308,OUO 5,000 10,000 lU,UOO 8,000 32,UOU 413,000 Scenario 4Energy Price Increase 1995 20U5 VHSR VliSR Projection Projection 29,OUO 7,000 20,000 7,000 62,000 80,000 77,000 7U,OUO 39,OUu 26b,00O 4,000 9,000 8,UOO 6,000 28,000 356,000 38,000 d,OOO 25,000 9,000 80,000 102,000 9~,OOO ti9,UOO 50,UOO 34U,(JUO 5,UUO 11,000 10,000 8,000 35,000 45.:>,UUO

Interchange Burlington-Washington Burlington-Baltimore Burlington-Philadelphia Burlington-Trenton Subtotal New York-Utica New York-Syracuse New York-Rochester New York-Buffalo Subtotal Poughkeepsie-Utica Poughkeepsie-Syracuse Poughkeepsie-Rochester Poughkeepsie-Buffalo Subtotal TOTAL

Note:

Column totals may not sum due to rounding.

111.50

EXHIBIT III-26
VHSR TouRISM Ai'iD RECREATION TRAVEL

Forecast Year 2005 Scenario 4Ene rgy Price Increase 30,OUU 9~,OOO Scenario 5Reduced Air Fares 27,UOO 79,00U

City Pair New York-Rutland New York-Burlington Poughkeepsie-Rutland Poughkeepsie-Burlington Albany-Kutland Albany-Burlington Rutland-Montreal Burlington-Montreal
TOTAL

Scenario 1Baseline 28,UOO 90,UOO

*
19,vOO

*
20,UOO

*
l7,00U

18,00U 10,UOO 19,UUO 190,vUO

20,000 l7,UUU 20,000 205,000

18,UOU 10,UOU 19,000 176,000

Indicates fewer than 500 annual trips. Column totals may not sum due to rounding.

Note:

III.

51

EXHIBIT III-27 VHSR RIDERSHIP (Trips in Thousands) Scenario 4 - Energy Price Increase - 1995 Intra-Corridor Trips 783 78 137 465 147
11:

Ci ty Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie - Albany Poughkeepsie - Rutland

External Trips 266

Induced Trips 117 11

Tourism Trips

Total Trips 1,166 88 '2.47 566 179

11:

62

47 101

2d

5
11:

Poughkeepsie - Burlington Poughkeepsie - Montreal Albany - Burlington Albany - Montreal Rutland - Montreal Burlington - Montreal TOTAL

5
3

1 1 4 12 1 6 356 305

6
4 18

14 4S 4 74 1,755

56 5
80 ---

2,416

11:

Indicates fewer than 500 annual trips.

Note:

Rowand

column totals may not sum due to rounding.

111.52

EXHIBIT III-28
VHSR RIDERSHIP (Trips in Thousands)

Scenario 4 - Energy Price Increase - 2005 Intra-Corridor Trips 1,026 102 17b 519 192 35 External Trips 340 Induced Trips
154

City Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie - Albany Poughkeepsie - Rutland

Tourism Trips

Total Trips 1,520

14

30
9!j

145 414 631 234

~O

bU 112 7

*
7 4 17
50 5

*
1 1
6

*
20 28
5

Poughkeepsie - Burlington Poughkeepsie - Montreal Albany - Burlington Albany - Montreal Rutland - Montreal Burlington - Montreal TOTAL

2U

43 63

13 1 7
455

17 20
205

23 IL2 --j,22!:1

95 --2,ln

376

Indicates fewer than 500 annual trips. Rowand column totals may not sum due to rounding.

Note:

111.53

EXHIBIT III-~9
VHSR RIDERSHIP (Trips in Thousands)
Scenario 5 - Reduced Air Fares - 1995

Ci ty Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie - Albany - Rutland

Intra-Corridor Trips 753 73 119 419 143

External Trips 240

Induced Trips 113 10

Tourism Trips

Total Trips 1,107 83 213 408 173

~7

37 69

25

.:;

*
5
3

*
1 1 4 10

*
6 4 17 49 4 74 2,218

- Burlington - Montreal

Albany - Burlington Albany - Montreal Rutland - Montreal Burlington TOTAL - Montreal

13 40 4 69 1,641 323

*
5 255

Indicates

fewer than 500 annual trips.

Note:

Rowand

column totals may not sum due to rounding.

III.54

EJCHIBIT III -30 VHSR RIDERSrllP (Trips in Thousands) 5 - Reduced Air Fares - 2005

Scenario

City Pair New York - Albany New York - Rutland New York - Burlington New York - Montreal Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie Poughkeepsie - Albany - Rutland

Intra-Corridor Trips 988 96 152 466 188

External Trips 308

Induced Trips 148 13

Tourism Trips

Total Trips 1,444

'1.7 7"3

135 353 544 21.7

73

48 77

32

*
6

*
1 1 5 11

*
17

*
24 4

.Burlington - Montreal

4 16 45 4 88 --2,054 413

Albany - Burlington Albany - Montreal Rutland - Montreal - Montreal

18

40 55

*
6 317

16 19 176

21 113 --2,960

Burlington

TOTAL

Indicates

fewer than 500 annual

trips.

Note:

Rowand

column totals may not sum due to rounding.

III.

35

III.4.6

SUr:l.mary

The total VHSR ridership projections for the scenarios for which projections were developed are summarized for the two forecast year s in Exhibi t I I 1-31 . ~hth the exception of Seenar io 3, the r e s uLts are very similar. The t inancial impl iea tions of these ridership levels are d~scussed in Se~tion V.

111.56

EXHIBiT 111-31
VHSR RIDERSHIP SUMMARY

Annua"l

'I!:l.p5- ll"l In.te!:cn.anges

Scenario

- Sum of All Ridership

1995 2,297,OUO

2005
3,068,000 3,174,000

1 - Baseline 2 - Baseline 3 - Baseline 4 - Energy 5 - Reduced

6 - Reduced 7 - Reduced

With Socioeconomic
With
1'10

Growth

2,365,00U

Travel Growth

1,726,OUO
L,41b,UUO 2,218,000

1,726,000

Price Increase Air Fares Infrastructure: Infrastructure: Electric Turbine Propu1sion* Propulsion:!:

a.zza.oou
2,960,UOO 3,068,000
3,U6b,OOO

2,297,UOO
2,~97,UUO

:I:

Separate ridership projections were not developed for Scenarios 6 and 7.

Forcast year ridership was assumed to be the same as for Scenario 1.

111.57

IV.

ECONOMIC

IMPACT

ASSESSMENT the and be

The purpose of this section is to report on the .r es uLt s of economic impact analysis, to outline the methodology employed, to indicate where additional research and analysis may necessary. IV.l ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS from

The economic impacts resulting from the VHSR service City to Montreal fall into several categories: o o o o o o employment and output in tne construction, tion, and maintenance of the rail system; purchase of goods and services by the rail as a result

New York

operasystem; of the

changes in economic activities operation of the system; urban and regional changes; with development; and related

tax base

coordination proljrams.

economic

development

In each of these cases, qual ita ti ve or qu an ti ta ti ve measur es 0 f the impacts are required to determine the economic teasibili ty of the VHSH service and its operations, tne secondary and tertiary effects of tne construction of the line, and the social and economic groups that will bear the costs and benefits of the line. The extent of the economi c impacts will of cour se Change over time. In particular, the ini tial impacts are likely to be due to the direct expenditures associated with constructing, maintaining, and purChasing services for the VHSR line and the employment and income generated for residents of the region. 'rhese direct and immediate effects would also provide additional stimulation of economic impacts through a multiplier effect which is felt as spending occurs within the economy. Second, economic impacts w Ll I be felt from the direct operation and maintenance of the rail line after its ini tial construction. This, in turn, would also have a multiplier effect on the economy. Third, tne very high speed rail service wou Ld be likely to cause structural changes in the regional economy and thereby alter the compet it ive status of the reg ion \V ith respect to other ar eas of the Northeast, the U.S., and North America. For example, the region's tourism and recreation market may be significantly strengthened and expanded as a direct consequence of the improved

IV.l

accessibility provided by the rail service, as we Ll as by the gener al at tr act i veness of the VHSR serv ice as a focal point at modern transportation technology. Indeed, the rail service may itself become a tourist attraction, at least duri.ng the initial years of its operation. Additional changes In o t n e r aspects of the business community, including expansion of existing industries and businesses and the development of opportunities for new enterprises, may be significantly enhanced. Finally, the very high speed rail service is likely to provide a complementary component in other economic dev e Lop.ne n t projects SUCh as electrical system development and gener a tion, U. S. -Canadian business par tner ships, and so on, t n us providing a s ub s t an t i a I secondary and tertiary base for development programs within the region. IV.l.I Scope of Analysis terms current ridership, in of specific engineering and other

The economic impact analysis is presented assumptions about the extent of the corridor, cost estimates, service characteristics, information, including the following: o The region surrounding the province included. The been engineer provided of analysis the station or state is

defined by the counties stops and rail line, and in which those counties are

ing by

and the

overall cost estimates Study Management Group.

have

Employment and \vage estimates for the construction phase have been provided by Transportation and Distribution Associates, Inc. ('TAD). The been specific provided time period by the Study for Lrnp Le men t.a t Lon Management Group. nas

It should also be noted that to be interpreted as tne net project but only as representing IV.l.2 Analysis Approach

the impacts benefits of the gross

and assessments tne very high effects.

are not speed rail

The purpose of thi s sect ion is co r epor t the pr e i iminar y r esul ts of the economic impact analysis. In particular, tne objective is to provide both quantitative and qualitative estimates of the economic impacts likely to be associated w i t n ImpLeme n t a t i on of VHSR service. These estimates are provided solely as order-ofmagnitude estimates of the impacts and, where appropriate, should be refined at later stages in a full feasibility study.

IV.2

In this analysis, quantitative estimates of the economic impacts from the construction and operation and maintenance of the rail line are presented along with the related mu Lt t p i i e r effects. In addi tion, an estimate of the economic impact of increased travel and tourism, based on a specific assumption about the inducement effects of the VHSR service, is presented. Indirect estimates of the impacts of business development, real estate development, and land improvement, ana the secondary and tertiary interact10ns with other economic development activities are presented in 4ualitative terms as well. The rationale for the division of impacts into quantitative and qualitative aspects bears directly on the availability of information on general business development programs and plans, the potential for business diversificat10n in the region, and the level of detailed information which would be required to estimate the real estate, land improvement, and other economic development benefits. Since there is fairly detailed information available for construction, operations, and recreation ana tourism, spec1fic quan t ita t ive analyses wer e under taken for t n e se act iv ities. The areas of principal economic development impacts are noted 1n Exhibit IV-I. IV.2 IV.2.l QUANTITATIVE ECONOMIC IMPACT ESTIMATES

The Use of Input-Output

Analysis

Tlle bas ic methodology used to es t ima t e tne quan t ita t i v e economic impacts of the VHSR pro j ect was inpu t-ou tpu t (I -0) analys 1S . The maJor advantage of using 1-0 tecnniques is that they allow one to estimate, in a straightforward way, b o t h the direct and indirect economic effects of changes in demand for particular goods and services. For example, the construction of a rail line will require an increase in the output of the constructlon industry. The increase in construction will require, among other things, higher steel production, which in turn will require more chemicals, iron ore, limestone, etc. Another input to construction will be gravel, and the gravel industry will in turn require inputs of its own. I-a tables trace these input chains back through the economy in order to arrive at the total requirements needed to support a given increase in the final demand for VHSl~ cons tr uct ion. These mUltiplier effects include both the direct inputs needed to build the line and the indirect inputs from supply industties needed to support the direct inputs. For the present analysis, it was requested t na t Gellman Research Associates (GRA) develop estimates ot the regional and corridor impacts of tne VHS1{ p ro j e c t . Access to regional 1-0 tables t n a t, give multiplier effects relevant to the project area between New Yo r k and Montreal was required to accomplish this. At GRAts request, such tables have recently been developed by the U.S.

IV.3

EXHIBIT IV-l
AREAS OF PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS

0
0 0 0 0

New York City Poughkeepsie Albany Rutland Burlington Montreal Province of Quebec Very High Speed Rail Corridor Northeast

0 0

0 0 0

u.s.

Eastern Canada

IV.4

Department of Commerce ~DOC) based on their Regional Modeling System (RIMS). The counties included in region for the RIMS tables are Shown in Appendix C.

Input-Ou.tput the relevant

As a regional economy does not produce the same composi tion of goods and services that a national economy does, it is likely that, for a given change in final demand, the region will have to import from other regions some of the i npu t s needed to meet the demand change. Such imports represent "leakages" trom the regional economy since their impacts occur outside the region. Similarly, the national economy may have to import goods from other countries to meet demand. As a practical matter, nowev e r , the leaKages from the regional economy are typically larger tnan those from a national economy, and so the multiplier effects of a given change in final demand are smaller for a region than for the entire national economy. In addition to the direct and indirect impacts resulting from required supply industry inputs, it will also De desirable to estimate the impacts resulting from the increased earnings of workers in the construction and other supply industries. In particular, workers will spend a maJor portion of their increased earnings on additional goods and services, and these consumer demands wi 11 gener ate fu rtner mul tipl ier ef fects in the same way that tne increase in railroad construction itself did. Tne RHIS 1-0 tables take the impacts of tnese ninducedn earnings into account by treating households as a separate "sector" of tne economy. IV.2.2 Construction and Operation Impacts

The RH1S analysis divides tne regional economy into 39 input and 496 output sectors. Thus, impacts due to construct1on, operati ons, and t ravel can be es t Lrna t e c by ass igning the r elevan t expenditures to detailed output categories. For example, construction expendi tures (excluding rolling stock) were assigned to 1-0 Sector 11.0302--New Railroad Construction. Ex n i o i t; IV-2 s now s a portion of the RIMS Total RequireHlents table that corresponds to Sector 11.0302. Each dollar of final demand for new railroad construction requires, either directly or indirectly,

I The 1-0 tables that were employed in the analyses of the U.S. and Canadian economic impacts were based only on the region along the rail corr idor from New Yor k Ci ty to the Vermont Quebec border (See Appendix C.). In lieu of comparable data from Canada, it was not possible to construct an independent Canadian regional 1-0 table and, therefore, the U.S. table was also employed to derive the Canadian economic development es tima tes. Because of the similar ities in industr ial s tru cture, however, the RIMS tables may be regarded as appropriate tor estimating such impacts.

IV.5

EXHIBIT IV-2 TOTAL REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT $1 OF FINAL DEMAND FOR NEW RAILROAD CONSTRUCTION Total Requirements Industry Fabricated Metals Electrical Machinery Households (Labor)
($ ) .0532 .0630 .4880

Total

2.1733

Source:

Gellman Research Associates,

Inc.

IV.6

5.32 cents of fabricated metals, 6.30 cents of electrical chinery, and so on. The total requirements are $2.1733 for dollar of final demand for new railroad construction.

maeach

Using this total requirements figure, the preliminary construction impacts based on the RIMS tables are presented in Exhibi t IV-3. The effects are disaggregated into seven construction categor ies for the Baseline scenario and for Scenario 7. 'l'hese effects were allocated according to the pattern of investment expenditures presented in the Technical Report. The operations impacts (Exnibit IV-4) are disaggregated into operating categories for the Baseline scenario and for Scenario 7. The operations e xpe nu i tures were allocated to t h ree different nat~onal 1-0 sectors: maintenance and repair ot railroads, railroads and related services, and electric services (util~ties). As noted above, the regional 1-0 tables take account of t h e induced i mpa c t s resultiny from increased earnings of vo rke rs . In order to include these effects, the RU1S model au s t incorporate specific estimates of the proportion of eacn dollar spent in each industry on labor. These estimates are based on aggreyated historical data, and in the present context may differ from the actual labor expenditures estimated by TAD. If t h e y are s i qn i> ficantly different, the impacts derived from using the RIMS mUltipliers may be unreliable. The most important area of potential error involves the construction impacts. ThUS, to determine the reliability of the impacts, the amount spent on wages and salaries in each construction category and SUb-region was de r ived from the TAD emp Lo yme nt; and wage estimates. The TAD estimates are shown in Exhibit IV-S. By summ i n q across all categories and SUb-regions, the total amoun t spent on wages and salaries comes to $417.9 willion. rtelatiny this to total construction expenditures for the Baseline as estimated in the TeChnical Report, the proportion spent on direct labor amounts to 19 percent. Tnen adding in a 3U p e rcen t; labor over head rate for fringe benef its, medi cal coverage, and so on, the total proportion spent on La o o r comes to 24 percent. Tnis compares to 28 percent used fur the RIMS tables in the New Hailroad Construction sector. The estimates are very close to one another and so the construction impacts presented in EXhibit IV-j should be reliable (assuming that the direcc expenditure estimates themselves are accurate). IV.2.3 Tourism and Travel Demand Impacts

In estimating travel demand impacts, it was assumed tnat the impacts would occur in four major suo-regions: New YorK City, Albany/Poughkeepsie, Vermont, and Montreal. Estimates of

IV.7

EXHIBIT lV-3 ECUHOMIC IMPACTS OF VrlSR CONSTRUCTION

(Millions of 1983 U.S.

$)

Category Infrastructure Maintenance Tracks Electrification Signals Telecommunication Rolling Stock TOTAL Facilities

Scenario l-Baseline

Scenario 7Reduced Infrastructure: Turbine Propulsion

$2,727.49 86.93 897.57 506.38 239.06 95.63 251.19 $4,804.25

$2,321. 08 95.63 525.94

86.93 95.63 229.03 $3,354.24

Source:

Gellman Research Associates,

Inc.

IV. (3

EAiiIBIT ANNUAL ECOHotlIC

IV-4

IMPACTS OF VHSR OPERATIONS

(Millions

of 19S3 U.S. $)

Category

Scenario 1995

i-Baseline Z005 6.62 32.02

Scenario 7Reduced Infrastructure: Turbine Propulsion 1995 6.35 ZOU5 6.35 :a.50

Maintenance of Infrastructure Maintenance of Track

6.62 .32.U2

2L..50

Haintenance of Electric Traction and Energy Equipment Naintenance of Signals

10.32 lU.Uf:>

10.32 10.0b 7.41 7.41

Haintenance of Telecommunic.ations Maintenance Stock Train Crews Stations, Food, Service and Other TOTAL Purchase of Energy of Rolling

2.65

2.65

2.65

2.65

18.26

24.88

21.7U }.'./A

29.38 N/A

1~/ A
26.06 105.99 6.93

t~/A
29.07 115.62 8.21

20 .30 80.91 l).57

24.U6 --92.35 11.67

Note: Source;

Column totals may not sum due to rounding. Gellman Research Aasociates, Inc.

IV.9

EXHIBIT IV-5 El1PI.DYMENT ANDYf\GE ESrIl1\m) FCR VffiR m~ON

Design ani Constructfon Management

(Mm-{Bys)

Constnction PeIBODOe.l (Man-n:iyS)

Opezatdng

Sub-Region M:mt:rea.l-Border Border-Albany Albany-NYC TOrAL

Supervisors 2,266 15,984 5,985 23,935

Fbgineers 13,4.30 94,879 35,533 143,842

Support 22,628 159,asO 59,867 242,345

Supervisors 7,971 39,614 25,702 73,287

~ers 75,525 608,033 12l,613 805,171

Ja1IIleytIel

Laborers 136,283 683,458 487,442 1,307,183

47,6(jj 247,367 165,097 460,070

WageRate/Day (U.S. $)

230

155

ill

160

180

140

108

Soorce: Transportation

ani Distrihltion

Associates,

Ire,

IV.10

exp9nditur9S p9r person-trip were then derived for each area; the amount and sources of tnese expenditure estimates are presented in Exhibi t IV-6. As indicated in the ex h i o i t, each c a t e qo r y of expenditure was assigned to an I-U sector so tnat total multiplier effects could then be calculated. The induced ridership figures presented in Section III give estimates of ridership for eacn interchange in the corridor. However, in order to use the estimates in Exhibit IV-6, it is necessary to determine the direction of travel between any two points. For example, Exhibit 111-16 on page 111.39 indicates tnat induced travel cetween New York and Albany in 1995 will be 115,000 persontrips. In 0 rder to est ima t e economic impact s cased on BXllibit IV-6, one needs to know how many of these trips will be from Albany to New York, and how many will be from New York to Albany. As an initial estimate, it was assumed that the number traveling f r orn one area to a n o t n e r would be proportional to the relative populat ions of the t\VO areas. The population est imates used are those presented in Exhibit 111-3 on page 111.4. These destination figures were then combined with the data in Exn i o i t IV-6 a n d tne multipliers of the I-U tables to yield tne economic impacts shown in Exhicit IV-7. In addition to these p r e Li mi na r y induced effects, it is expected that the VHSR service will have major Lmpac t s on the ve r mon t tourism indust ry. In order to get a handle on these effects, it seemed reasonacle to relate tne opening of tne VdSa line to previous openings of large-scale transportation sjstems in the region. In particular, t ne opening of 1-89 and 1-91 pr ov i ue d a ma j o r s t i iaulus to the Vermont t o ur i s u industry, as is indicated in :c.;xhibit IV-8. Both interstates were ope n e d beginning in 1965 and COl11pleted oy 1970. Simultaneously, tourism in Vermont increased from four million tourists in 1965 to six million tourists in 1970, representin<d an absolute increase of two million and a percentage increase of 50 percent over five years. From 197U to 1980, tourism increased by one mi Ll i o n in absolute terms and 16.66 percent in percentage terms. For present purpose s, it was assumed t ha t s i mi la r ef fects may be expected from the opening of the VHSR service in 1995. The implications for vermont tourism are shown in Exhibit IV-8 for years after 1995. For any given year, the effect attributable to the VHSR line is the total number of tourists given tne VHS~ service less the trend number of tourists without the VHS~ service. As can be seen in the exhibit, under the assumption of comparable absolute increases, the induced tourism attributable to VrlSH service grows to 1,50U,00U after five years. Comoining this with the vermont expenditure estimates from EXilibit IV-6 and with the 1-0 multipliers results in t ne economic impacts presented HI EXhioit IV-9. As the exhibit indicates, the size of the impacts depends on whether absolute or percentage increases are assumed.

IV.ll

EXHIBIT

IV-6

EXPENDITURES

PER PERSON-TRIP

(1983 U.S.

$)
Albany/ Poughkeepsie3 86.02

Activity Lodging Entertainment/ Recreation Gifts/ Incidentals Food Local Transportation TOTAL

1-0 Sector 72.01UO

Vermont 1 104.07

r~YCL 143.76

Montrea14 114.9'3

76.02UO

61.13

63.U5

37.

rz

50.40

69.0200 74.0000

47.17 166.20

62.65 94.94

37.49 56.81

50.09 75.91

65.0200

10.00 388.50

19.99 384.36

11.96 230.00

15.98 307.32

1 Derived from Laventhol & Horwath, Study of Economic Benefit of Vermont's Travel Industry, August 1979. Data is inflated to 19~3 dollars by the . Northeast region, Population Class D CPL. Local transportation expenditure is assumed to be 50 percent of that for NYC. 2 Derived from 1978-1979 New York City Visitors Spending study compiled by the U.S. Travel Data Center. Data is inflated to 1983 dollars by the NYC; metropolitan CPL. 3 Total as reported in private conversation with Keith Arnold of Albany Convention and Visitor's tlureau. Total represents convention delegate spending per day x average stay for 1983 and is distributed in same proportion as that for HYC. 4 Total is 150 percent of average spending per person-trip of U.S. residents traveling to Canada as reported in Statistics Canada, Travel Between Canada and Other Countries, 1982. Total is inflated to 1983 dollars by the NYC inflation rate and converted to U.S. dollars using an exchange rate of $1.265 Canadian/$l.Oa u.s. Total is distributed in same proportion as that for NYC.

Note:

Column totals may not sum due to rounding.

IV.12

E.lI.HIBIT IV-7 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF INDUCED VHSR TRAVEL

BY REGION
(Millions of 1983 U.S. $)

Region New York Poughkeepsie Albany Rutland Burlington Montreal TOTAL

1995

2005

$ 25.65
2.13 67.58 9.b7 41:3.l:!9 55.CU $209.15

.:sO .l9
2.66 d 7.56 l2.tl5 62..40 61.63

$257.39

Note: Source:

Column totals may not sum due to rounding. Gellman Research Associates, Inc.

IV.13

I
14 EFFECTS

I
EXHIBIT 1V-3'

I
''I,

I
\"ERMO-';T .

OF VHSR 0"1 TOl'RISM

.:
13
Same percentage increase 1965-1970 and 1970-1980 as

--/

12

11
S . Increase ~ as

ame absolute

"'
0

1965-1970 10

and 1970-1980

-----

'E

>

c E :p
0

s
III ;j

WI // /, V
\

/V
Trend with no VHSR

Vi

0 I-

0 0

.>

VHSR opens

'6

r<

/
Annual data

1/
/

/
1-89 and 1-91 open
Source: Gellman Research Associates, Inc.

1"--.

/
1960

1955

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

IV.14

EXHIBIT

IV-9

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TOURISM AND RECREATION IN VERMONT FROM VHSR-INDUCED TRAVEL AND DEVELOPMENT

(Millions of 1983

u.s.

$)

I. Assuming same absolute increase as 1965-197U aud 1970-1980: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: All succeeding years: II.
$

288.12 576.25 864.37 1,152.49

1,440.62 1,440.62

Assuming same percentage increase as 1965-1970 and 1970-1980: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 20U4: 2005: Each succeeding year increases by: $ 672.29 1,344.57 2,016.86 2,689.15 3,301.44 3,457.48 3,553.52 3,649.56 3,745.60 3,841.64
96.04

Source:

Gellman Research Associates, Inc.

IV.IS

Estimates of economic impacts due to the introduction ot VHSR service are summarized in Exhioit IV-IO. Impacts are estimated to grow from over $300 million (1983 U.S. $) in 1995 to $1,814 million in the year 2005.
IV.3 QUALITATIVE ECONOtHC

I:1PACT ESTH1ATES of
e c o nom i c

As indicat ed were developed o o o o business business real

above, qu a Litat i ve a s s e s sme n t s for the following categories: development--diversiticationi Jevelopment--expansion; developHlent and land

impacts

estate

improvement; vito

and otner

secondary economic

and tertiary interactions development activities.

These assessments were made based pr i mar i Ly on interviews conducted with developers, and tourist and otner officials in Vermont and Quebec. 3y their very nature, such estimates are highly SUbjective, and tnis should be kept in mind wn en d r aw i n q conclusions about impacts associated with tne categories outlined abov e . '.rhe impacts are described with reference to tne four major me t r opo Li+ tan areas--Burlington, Hontreal, Albany, and Uew Yo r x-o-s e r v e d by VHSR service. The strength of three for each tourism impacts the quantitative IV.3.l In Burlington tile i mpa c t s are s ummar i z e d on a scale from zero to area. In addition, yualitative recreation and are assessed due to the very tentative nature of findings aoove.

VHSrt

the 1990s, business diversification in Burlington due to the project is likely to take the form of relocation for some existing businesses and the attraction of new high technology businesses. Business expansion is likely to occur in tourism, recreation (especially sKilng), and construction.

H.eal estate development will take the form of station area core development, improved urban land values, land ilL1provelllents tor business and tourism, and some modest second home d ev e Lopt.ie n t, These impacts are likely to grow througll the next several decades. Other developments will be mostly concentrated on the identification of economic linkages, e.g., w i t n nigh tecnnology "inCUbator" centers. By the year 2005 it wi t h these linkages s ma Ll, to medium-size editorial bases is is liKely that spin-off businesses associated wi 11 develop. By 2015, the development of business clusters v i r n high tecnnology or possible. i'1oreover, the spin-off businesses

IV.lb

EXHIBIT IV-10

SUMMARY OF POST-CONSTRUCTION ECONOMIC IMPACTS (Millions of 1983 U.S. $) 1995 Economic Impacts of VHSR Operations Economic Impacts of Induced Travel Economic Impacts of Induced Tourism TOTAL $315.14 $105.99 209.15 2005

115.62 257.39 1,440. b Z

$1,813.63

IV.17

may orm the ounda tion for a strong expanded relative levels of these expected impacts on sented in Exhibit IV-Il. Iv.3.2 t10ntreal

bus iness Burlington

cor e. are

The pre-

The business development impacts ot the VHSH system on the Montreal area may be greatest in the areas ot international finance and biotechnology. In addition, business expansion is likely to extend to the transportation and fashion industries. Real estate development will be reilected in increased hotel and restaurant construction. no r eov e r , as i n Burlington, the identification of economic linkages may lead to the development or indus tr ies oased on such spa tial 1 inks, e. g ., mul t 1-mocial 1 inks to leisure and sports activities. This latter development will have significant positive impacts on recreation and tourism. The strength of these expected impacts over tillle is depicted in Exhibit IV-12. IV.3.3 Albany

Bus iness d i ver s i fica tion ar ound Albany will beg in in t n e 199 Os based on the reinforcement of existing high technology industries and the relocation of firms tnat require p r ox i.m i ty to New York city. Business expansion will also come in the form of increased government-related rail travel and the possible development of education and publishing activities with greater access to New York City markets. Real estate development is expected to be moderate initially, but strong impacts around the station area core can be expected later on. Finally, summer tourism may grm. over the long run. Exhibit IV-13 depicts the strength of tnese impacts on Albany. IV.3.4 New York City

VHSR service extending to New York Ci ty will promote increased economic linkS to corridor-based high technology industr1es. Moreover, the rail line will serve to attract additional international business services to the area. Business expansion may be expected to impact most heavily on the fashion ana financial services industries. Increased recreation and tourism impacts also may be expected with increasing demands for theatre, sporting events, etc., but it is unlikely that the VHSR line will have much short-term effect on New Yor k S land values. In the longer run, however, the VHSR service may promote significant improvements in conditions and land values around tne station area. The impact of these effects are presented in Exhibit Iv-14.
I

IV.18

ffiELIt~

ASSESSlliNI OF smE!'L~ OF lWAGI'S: H.IRL.n'L"TCN, VT

1995
:&..1sinessDevalopnentr Diversification Bestness Devel.opnentt Expansion Recreation and Tourism 1

2005
2

2015 3

2025 3

1 2

3 3

3 3

Real Estate Developmeot and Land Ireprovenent Secondary and Tertiary Interacticns with Other EcOllCDlicDevalopaent Activities

Effects 1'" InteDlIi.ttent Effects 2 '" Mcxiest Effects 3 '" Strong Effects

o '" No

.Sourcet

Ge11manResearch lIssociates,

Inc.

IV.19

KiliIBIT IV-12 ~ ~E A5SESSrFH

t-nnRFAL

OF SIREi'L"'IH OF 111?ACl'S:

1995
5S

2lXJ5
2

2015
3

2025 3

2.025

DevelopilEIlt: rsification

3
2 2

5L

~velopnent: nsion
tj,

1 1

3
2

3
2

landToorism

z
2

sr=te Develope; 1 Lard

ov~
31

ani Tettiary

ra :icns with
r Eccncmic Develop-

A:-+-ivities

Eects te rittent Effects :lest Effects 00-- Effects

Gellman Research

Associates, Inc.

IV.20

lWll.BlT IV-13

I'RELll'1L"i'\RY ~IVE

ASSESSl"Ei-rr AUl!\NY

OF SJIill'L"TH OF iWACl'S:

1995 Busdneas Ievelopuent: Diversification Business Deve.J.opnent: Expansion Recreation and Tourism Real Estate Devalopment and LaIXi Improverent Secondary and Tertiary Interactions with Other Ecooanic. Developnent Activities

2005 2

lU15
2

2025

1
1

2
1

2
2

lntenni.ttent Effects 2 = i1cxlest Effects 3 = Strong Effects

a= 1=

No Effects

Sources Gellman Research Associates,

Inc.

IV.21

EXHIBIT IV-14

ASSESSlNl' OF smEWlli OF IH?ACl'S: NEW YOOK CITY

1995 fusiness Developaentt Diversification fusiness Devalopnents Expansion Reaeation and Tourism 1

2005
2.

2U15 2

2025 2

1
1

2
2

2
2

2 2.

Real Estate Development and Lan:i Improvem=nt Secondary ani Tertdary Interacticns with Other Eccnanic Developnent; Activities

2.

2.

o = No Effects
1 = Inte:rmi.ttent Effects 2 = Hodast Effects 3 = Strong Effects

Sou:n::.e: Gellman Research

Associates,

Inc.

IV.22

V.

VHSR REVENUE AND COST ASSESSMENT

This section presents an analysis of passenger revenues, operatin~ cos ts, and capi tal cos ts fa r the proposed VHSR service. An analysis was made for each of the seven scenarios identified in Sect ion I1. V.l FINANCIAL ANALYSIS APPROACH

A number of estimates and assumptions are used in this analysis r e qa r d i n q the proposed rail project. First, construction w Ll I be completed so that revenue s e r v i ce can begin on January 1, 19)15. Second, the construction period and testing will taKe four years. Th ir d, r even ues ar e based on pr 0 je c t e d rider s h ip anu far es aocumented in Section III of this report. Fourth, the capital, operat i. ng, ana main tenance cos ts used in t n is anal ys i s wer e p r ov iced in the Techn i cal Repor t. Finall y, the ca p i tal cos ts will be f inanced over 30 years. The sources of funds necessary to meet the capital, operating, ana main tenance cos ts vary. Financing the capi tal cas t of the pr 0posed undertaking will be difficult. The mdgnitud~ of the proJect and the lack of sufficient revenues to allow for rolling over short-t er m deb t in to 1 ong-t erm indebtedness mak es the pr 0 ject an unlikely candidate for revenue bonds. Therefore, the project could require the issuance of long-term general obligation bonds backed by the full faith and credit of the states and province through which the rail line passes. A quasi-public agency or the individual jurisdictions could administer the obligation. During the construction phase it seems reasunable to assume that yearly borrowings will equal yearly expenditures by means of vendor credits and locally backed s hc r t+ t e r ra borrowings. Upon the opening of the line for revenue service, the debt would be converted to 30-year s taged-r edempt ion ser i a I bonds. The a pp I i ca o Le interest rate would depend on whether the bonds quality for taxexempt status. The international aspects or the rail line may preclude tax-exempt status unlike a route built solely in the United States. Interest rates of 10 percent ior tax-exem2t bonds and 14 percent for taxable bonds were used in this a s s e s s men t . The 10 per cen t rate is based on the s ta te and local o o n d rate published in the May 1984 issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. The 14 percent rate is based o n the average corporate bond rate for the same period and comes from the same source. One option that could help acnieve tax-exempt status for the bonds vcu Ld involve spl i t t ing the oo I iga tion among the three j ur i sdi ctions with each jurisdiction issuing its own bondS. A variety of criteria could be used to determine the size of each jurisdiction's obligation such as track miles, passenger miles, or economic benefit. ~fuile the capital costs will require the issuing of Lon q+Le r m o o n d s , it appear s that the oper a ting and ma in tenance costs can potentially be met by operating revenues.

V.l

The analysis per iod cons is ts of two par ts nur ing the fou r -year constr uct ion pe r Lod , f a n a n c i n q 'Would come from snort-term instr umen ts . The amo r tiza tion per iod would extend over _30 year s. The proposed rail line's similarity 'Witn utility proJects and the need to spread the very higb total project cost over as many years. as possible r e su l ted in the selection of an extremely long amortization per iod despi te the hign interest cost. It seems unlikely that the investment would become physically exhausted within tnis period. The Japanese Shinkansen recently celebrated its twentieth anniversary with its original right-oi-way structure and rolling stock. The proposed project's rolling stock mayor may not possess a useful life of 30 years. The rolling stock's useful life will depend on whatever repair/replacement policy the o~e[ating agency adopts. However, stations possess a life corresponding to imp [ 0 v e d r e ale s tat e Fin all y, the c i v i 1 en gin e e r in gill V est ill en t 0 f clearing and leveling the right-of-way, 'Whicn accounts for nearly 50 percent of the total project cost, possesses an indefinite liie span. V.2 REVENUES

Total revenues for the p r o po s e u r a i L service vou t d c oine almost entlrely from operations. Operating revenues were estlmateJ for eacn of toe five scenarius for wh i cn VHSR r i ue r s h i p projections we r e made, based on the pr o j e c t e o patronage and fares for eacn interchange. It was assumed that revenues for Sc e n a r i.o s 6 and 7 would be eyual to those for the Baseline. operating revenue estimates for. the forecast: years 19SJ5 and 2LJ05 are s u nu.ia r r z e d for e a cn scenario in Exhibit V-I. V.3 OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS

Projections of annual operating and maintenance costs for tne VHSR system were made for each of the seven scenarios identified in Section II. Projections of operating and rna r n t.e n an ce costs for each scenar io for tho: forecast years 1995 and 2005 are presented in the Technical Report. These p r o j e c t i cn s are summarized in Exh i b i t V-2. Projections for the intermediate years~Jere developed by interpolation based on yearly changes in ridership levels. V.4 NET OPERATING INCOME

Annual net o pe r a t i n q income was calculated for e a cn s c e n a r io o y subtracting projected operating and maintenance costs r r ou projected operating revenues for each year. projo:ctions of net operating income for tho: forecast years lY95 and 20US are s n own for each scenario in EXhioit V-J.

V.2

EXHIBIT V-l VHSR OPERATING REVENUES

(Millions of 1983

u.s. $)
1995
$7 s. 9
2UU5

Scenario - Sum of All Ridership

1

Baseline Baseline With Socioeconomic Growth Baseline With No Travel (;rowth Energy Price Increase Reduced Air Fares Reduced Infrastructure: Reduced Infrastructure: Electric Propulsion* Turbine Propulsion*

$104.7 111.0 60.9 114.9 99.7 104.7 104.7

2. 3 4
5 6 7

82.3 60.9
86.5

75.2 78.9
78.9

The,e flnanci~l prOJ~ctlons ~~ri cr~n~r}d U~lna lnfor~~tlon and aSSU~Dtions set 'ort~ in th~ pr~j~ct r?p~rt ~nd In lCDdndi_ ) 0' thq T}chnlC~l 5ppendix to thiS r~port. rn'or~~tl0n and ~s;u~ption' from S?urc~s In th~ report re used ~lthout v~rl'yin~ suc~ d~t~. Althou9h ~e hpll9ve t~e lnform~tlon and .ssu~~tion, uspd constltute ~ reasonable bOSlS 'or pr9p~rin~ the ~rojqction;' tne ~Chl.y.~ent ot,-nv 'lna~cl~l projlction m.y h~ ~tf9ct~d by fluctu~tln9 condition; and ~111 dep-nd ~n the occur~gnc~ of other futur9 events ~hich c~nnot he ~ssur~d. Therefore, th9 actual r~sults ~chleY~d ~~y v~ry fro~ the proj~ctlons, and ~uch v~rl~tlo~~ could b~ ~~t.-ial. These projectlonS ar9 based on an ~n.lysl' of a 10n~-t9rm inv.st~.nt project to determine IUh~th.r further study is d~slr"l>le.

Separate revenue projections were not developed for Scenarios 0 and 7. Forecast year revenues were assumed to be the same as for Scenario 1.

v.3

EXHIBIT V-2

VHSR OPERATING AND MAINT&~ANCE COSTS

(Millions of 19~3
Scenario - Sum of All Ridership 1 - Baseline 2 - Baseline With Socioeconomic ~rowth

u.s.

$)
199') $51.l $53.1 $47.2 $52.1 $50.3 2005 $58.0
$59.7

3 - Baseline With No Travel Growth 4 - Energy Price Increase 5 - Reduced Air Fares 6 - Reduced Infrastructure: Propulsion 7 - Reduced Infrastructure: Propulsion Electric

$47.2 $5b.9 $55.3

$43.9 Turbine $42.5

$50.7

$51.0

Source:

de Courtois,

Gaston, and Roland

Courjault-Rad~,

Very High

Speed Rail Service Between Montreal and New

York--Preeasibility Study Final Report, June 1984 (revised December 1984).

V.4

EXHIBIT V-3 VHSR NET OPERATING INCOME

(Millions of 1983 U.S. $) Scenario - Sum of All Ridership

1 2

1995
$27.7

2005
$46.7

Baseline Baseline With Socioeconomic Growth Baseline With No Travel Growth Energy Price Increase Reduced Air Fares Electric

,,9.2 13.7 34.4

24.9

51.3 13.7 56.0 44.4 54.0 53.7

3 4
5

b - Reduced Infrastructure: Propulsion

7 - Reduced Infrastructure:

35.0
Turbine

Propulsion

36.4

These flnancial proj9ctlons ~er~ pr~par~d uSlnq lnfor~~tlon and a55u~pt1on5 set 'orth in th3 project rapJrt ~nd 1n Acpandi. ) of thq T~chnle~l 4poendix to thlS report. rn'Or~~tlon and ~s;u~ption; fro~ 5~Ureqs ln the report .ere used wlthout v~rtfyin~ suc~ d~ta. 41though ~8 b@ll8ve th9 lnform~t1on ~nd ~ssu~~tlon5 us?d e~n~tltuta 3 r.a50n~b19 b~5l5 for pr9p~rlnq the ~roj~ctioni' the ach18v.~.nt of ~nv financlal prOJ~ctlon "',y hq affectad by fluctu~tlng condition; and ~111 depand ~n the oeeur~ene9 ~f other future events which cannot he ~5sur.d. There'or9, the ~ctual rasults achlevpd ~ay v~ry fro~ the proj~ctlons, and ,ueh v~rl~tlo,~ could b9 ~~te~ial. These projections ar~ based on an ~n~lysis of ~ lon~-ter~ inve5t~ent project to determine IIIh~th.r further study is d~slrable.

v.5

V.S

CAPITAL

COSTS

Exhibit V-4 presents the capital costs for the proposed VHSR service outlined by the Baseline scenario. The total 'cost is $2.182 billion in 1983 O.S. dollars. These costs include land acquisition, preliminary engineering, and design. However, they do not include a number ot potentially significant costs. first, some of the infrastructure costs from Central Station in rlontreal to Saint Lambert, a distance of 6.4 kilometers (4.0 miles) are not included. However, modification costs, SUCLl as for electrificat ion and signals, have been identified in the 'rechnical !~eport, and are included in the capital cost estimates. Second, the cost or new stations in durlington and Kutland is not included. Third, the cost of modifications to the Albany/ Rensselaer and PousnKeepsie stations is not included. Fourtn, the cost of mitigating clearance problems for other trains created by the installation of catenary under the decks of existing overhead bridges and tunnels is not included. Finally, the infrastructure costs at pennsylvania Station in New York and vicinity are not inc 1uded. Some of these cos ts wi 11 resul t in tans i.b Le benet its to existing services and the agencies operating tne existing services may pay a portlon of the costs for the benefits tney receive. Also presented in Exhibit V-4 are capital costs by type of investment for the Reduced Infrast ructure scenar ios (i. e., Scenar ios 6 and 7). These costs reflect t n e modifications to the Baseline scenario outlined in Section II. Exhibit V-5 presents the e s t i ua t eu capital expenditures tor t n e three capi tal cost options for eacn year in the f ou r+y e ar construction period requ i re d to open tne line on January 1, 19~j. Peak construction occurs during 1~92 and 19~3 when over 75 percent of the total prOjected outlays would be expended. V.6 CASH FLOW PROJECTIONS

Cash flow projections were prepared for each at the seven scenarios based on the projected operating revenues, operating and maintenance cost s, and capi t al cost s presented aoove. 'rll ese pro J ections are presented in Exhibits V-6 tnrougn V-14. Exhioits V-6 t n rouqn V-12 present ca s u f Low p ro j ec t i o ns ro r the forecast period 1995 through 2005 for each of the seven scenarios based on the follol,..ling: o Ridership corridor, included. for all four VHSR external, induced, trip and types (intratourism) are basis

FinanCing is Obtained on a borrow-as-needed during the four-year construction period.

V.6

EXHIBIT

V-4

VHSR CAPITAL COSTS FOR THE BASELINE SCENARIO Al~D REDUCED INFRASTRUCTURE SCENARIOS (Costs in Millions of 1983

u.s.

$)

Type of Investment Infrastructure Engineering) Tracks Electrification Signals Telecommunications Rolling Stock Facilities (Civil

Scenario 1Baseline

Scenario 6- Scenario 7Reduced Reduced InfraInfrastructure: structure: Turbine Electric Propulsion Propulsion

$1,255 413 233 110 44 136 40 $2,LH

$1,068 242 189 66 44 136

4U

$1,068 242

40 44 124 44 $1,562

Maintenance TOTAL

$1,785

NOTE:

Peat Marwick has added $4 million to the total project cost because of what it believes was un oversight in totaling telecommunications costs. de Courtois, Gaston, and Roland Courjault-Rade, Very High Speed Rail Service Between Montreal and New York--Prefeasibility Study Final Report, June 1984 (revised December 1984).

Source:

V.7

EXHIBi' V-5

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BY YEAR

(Millions of 1~H3 U.S. $) Scenario 6Reduced Infrastructure: Electric Propulsion $
176 728 635 246

Year
1 (1991) 2 (1992)

Scenario 1Baseline

Scenario 7Reduced Infrastructure: Turbine Propulsion $

176 714

$ 191
862 860 318 $2,231

3 (1993)
4 (1994)

517
155 $1,562

TOTAL

$1,785

V.8

EXIIIBI'I' CASH

v-6 .LOW

Ridership

Sernario I - Basel ine Bised on Intra-Corridor. External. Non-t.xable Bond. (1'JII3 U.S. Dollars)

and Induced De.and

1995 SourCH of bshl Ooeratin~ PerfortlallCe Total hdershiD Tolal leVfnu.s LI/55 Op.rat in~ I Maintenance EJDI!nse Net ODl!l'atift~ IncoM
(Loul

1996

1991

1998

19'I'l

20\le

2~1

2ili3

2ii5

2.291 78.894, _

2,3117. M 1 '82.891

2.418.I!M '85. 3 I&,_

2. m.M $88.582,"'8

2.6&5.", '91.888

2.1&11.1108 2.818. HI '97. lH9. IIl0 '95.238. '01

2.879.11" 2.9~UIII 3. M3. 1M .1112.743,_ '98. 9Il~.000 'IN. sel. 11I1111I

3.1!68. SlIII4.731._

$51.2M

.5 I. 9'1;._

'52.798

$53.6IUM

m.H2

'55.283

155.811I

'56.331.1I011

'56.873.1"

m.Ue.IN

'58 .

111I

527.&94....

'38.e97.1N

'32.518..

'34.%8..

'37. H&,_

$39.955._

'41.249."

'42. 57~.1II111 'U.927._

'45.313..

'46.731._

<:

Usvs of Cish: Ikobt Rep;lYNnt InterKt Expenw Ikobt R.t irfi

'223,lee,_ '74,4",801

'215,711.1111I S2e8,2M,_ '74,418,811 '14.411I,_

1281,811,111I '193.4"'.* t74,UI,_ '74,4",_

SI8S,9N," S7~,418,'"

'178.5II.1M t74,4",1M

'171,_.HI '14,418,101

'1&3.r.NI.111 .15&,2 '74,4".118 .74,411....

'H8,711." '74.411._

Net Incr.aM IlIKr ,.1 in Cash 11269,886.I!MI 112&1,1I!J, 1M) II~, 182,11II) 1'2411I,232,111I) 1t231. 354,1N1)1t22111, ~5.HI) 1'211,65I,IMI 15212.826.HI) 11194.873.(11) 1'185,287.fNil Itl7.. 369.1901 ==:=::=::z:::.a:=~~===:::=:z=====================:c===================a::=~=========:c================:;:==============::r:=~-:::::a:~::r%&:;:1===::======:;:====;====;;;==========-===:::==Z==========-===

These fin.ncl~l projections W9r~ prep~r9d uSIng information ~nd a~su~ptions set forth in the project report ~nd in Aopendi_ ) of the Tachnic~l appendi. to this report. Infor~~tLon ~nd ~ssumptlon, fro~ sourc~s in th9 report .ere used .ithout varlfyin~ such d~t~. Although we b~lLeye the tnformatlon and 8ssu~ptions used constitute a re~sonabL~ b~5LS for prep~rinQ the projection;, the aCh18ye~ent of ~ny financial proj9ction m~y be affected by fluctuating conditions and will depRnd on the occurrence of other future events .hich cannot be assur~d. Therefore, the actual results achleved ~~y v~ry fro~ the projections, and ~uch v~riatio~s could be m~t."ial. These projections are based on an ~n~lY5i5 of ~ long-term investment project to
" ~ . 1_ __ #' , , ._ ~ ,." _ ._ _..!to"~.,,.
I!" . ,.., ~ .,....

::-'>

1 '-'

FXII CASH

ru I T r
i

V- 7

us
6rowth

Scenar io 2 - 8i!iI!line ~ith Socioeccnoaic

Ridersnip

8.sed

on Inrr a-Corr-ido. Ext ernal , .nd Induced De<l.Jnd Non-t bh Bonds 11983 U.S. Dolla,,'

1995
Soorcn of tull: Totill Tohl Aldrrshia

1996

1997

19'.l8

1m

2ilill

2N3

OOllr.t jn~ ~rfoJ"8i1lfi?

2.365._ 582, 3iil. ""

RlvenufS
le!is (]OIIr.tin~

2.~58,_ ~5.7il6,M

2,552.M ~9, IbIl,eM

2.641,808 592.659.M

2, 7~~._ 596,2il~.M

2.m .
$99. 80e. Nil

2.9115 . 2.9711.M 51111,935.l8il m~.128.ilN i

3,IM,_ 3.136 J.IH.M Uil6.36I1,iilIl 5188.652. ililil tlll.ilil2.M

I lIiint,rwnct
EXDI!nlill Net Orwrilt i II!! I ncoe.
(LMS)

S53,

m._

553.851,1N

S~.bl7.Me

tSS.396.11M

556.186, Nil

556. 98a. eN

S57.~.NII

558. il3~.Nt

558.575. Nil

SS9.131. 11M SS9.7N,Ne

<
I---'

Uses of CAsh I Debt RrDily_nt

Intlrut EXllllnH IWbt Rlt ired

Net Incre.", in Cuh
====::c:c:::r:::::aa

1m, III.... t7~,~N,N8

5215.718, ilil8 5288,2ilil.tM tH,~N,M tH,~,N8

.2tI,8N.eM SH,418,M

U93, ~N. ilN '74,~iil,M

tI85.9N._ S74,418,1II

SI78.5II.. tH,4M,1II

till, iilIl.Nil t74,4ilIl,Mt

'1&3.681.111 S74,4M,8N

tl56.2N,Nil S1~.~N,N8

tl~8.1N,Ne t74,~N.'"

(DlcnIHI

(52&8,295,IN) (t258. 2~5,ililill 15243,157,ililil)15231,931,.)

15221,782.iilIl) (5217, ~88.1M) (t218. ~9, III) (tl99. 3il6.ililil)(SI9I. 21:5

) (SI81,819.M)

(U71, 1'38,11I)

z:::r=:r=::::r======:z::::tz========:;:======:=====%===::=========J:=::::Z:==:2:%:=========z:.==:::Z::ZZ===a::KZJUr~r;aaE::.;:a~=.:E=:I::;%D=.&a.22:t.:;=:::;:&%--=-=a.;.a

z.%:z=::z.========':I:t==::It

These fin.ncial projections were prepar9d USIng information and aS5u~ptton5 set forth in the project r~port and in Appendix) of the T9chnic~1 Appendix to this report. Infor~~t~on and assumpti~n~ fro~sourc~s in th9 report .Irl U59d .ithout v~rlfvln9 such data. AlthouQh ~e b~lleve the infornation ~nd ~ssu~~tlons used constitute a r.asonabl~ b3Sis for preparing the proJ8ctionil thl achleve nt of any financial proj9ction m3Y be affected by fluctuatinQ conditions and ~ill dep~nd on the occurrence of other future events .hich C4nnot be assur~d_ Therefore, the actual results achieved ~ay vary fro. the projections, and such v~riatio,s could be m~t~~ial. These ~roj.ctions are basod on an ~nalY5ls of a long-ter~ investment projlct to

EXlilBl'l' V-8
CASH FLOW

Ridership

Scenario 3 - BURlinl1 With No Trav.1 6rOlOth Based on Intra-Corridor. External. imd Induced Dl!ILlnd Iion-huble Bonds 11983U. S. Dollars)

1m
SourCH of Cull: Oovriltin!! ~rforunct lolal R1cHrahio lolal Rtv,nUK U!sS Ooerlti n~ & Mlint.nance
Eroense Net Ooertin~ I~

1996

1997

1998

1m

2III1

1,126,. $68,929,_

1,726,_ $68,929,.

1,126._ $68,929,.

1,726,. $68.929

1.126,_ $68,929

1,726,"" i68.929.1lIIl

1.726,. 1,726.till $68,929,1lI1I $68.929.llIi

1.726 1.126 $68.929,8811 $611. 929.MIl

1,126 S68,92'1,.

S1t7.2iII,1II

.~72iII,IN

Sn,2II,_

$~1.2IlI

iH,eN. IIN

S41,2iII.'.

i~7,2 _

$~7,2111,NI

i~1, 21l1. IIlI I

SH.2 m

H1.2IMUiII

ILos,' 11I111of Cull: DIIbt Rlloaywnt

513.11!'J._

$13.11!'J.1N SI3,71!'J._

$13.12'1._

i1J.11!'J._

iI3.71!'J,NiI

'IJ.71!'J

$13.71!'J

tI3.72'1

t13.71!'J._

U3.12'1."

<

I nternt

E nst

Debt A.lirfil

$221,2",. $213.811._ S73,118,18I $73,111II, _

$286,5iIII S13,788,81M

iI99.111 5191.71l1 $73,188,IlII i13. 788._

iI8~.lIII.'" i13,718._

Sln,_,_ i73,7....

SI69,6iIiI,1lII SI62,211._ i13, 7 ," i73,1811,"

SI~,see._ S73,1., _

SI~7.5III._ i73,1M,

Net I nereau eOter w) in Cuh ($281,171,_11$213, 111,_' 1$266,~11,_' 1$2'59,'71,'"1 (s251,611,_' 1'2~~,211,'" 1$236,911._1 ($229,511,_' 1$222, 11,881'($21~,711.MIl' ($211.HI._, 1 :r=:;:a:~UI::r=:=======:=.======:r::=::===::=.====~:=====::::==l:=:--=::::========::=======::======::::t==:=======-~ S::Z::::Z==:Z=Z2Z=Z2~%&:-'===:C::::In:za.J:S&:=2Z'''~==:22:::2.%==::

T~ese fin cial projec'Lons n ~era prepar~d using information and ~ssuwpt1ons set forth in tho project r~port ~nd in Aopendix ) ot the T~chnic~l Appendi. to this report. In'or~~tl0n and ~55u~ptiQn~ from 50urC~5 in th9 report .ere used .ithout varlfyln~ such d~t~. AL'hough ~e b.lieve the lnfor~e'lon ~nd assu~ptlons u$@d constitute a reasonable b3SL5 for prQP~rlng the projection;, the ~chlev ent of any financial proj9ctlon may be affec'ed by fluctuatino conditions and ~ill depend on the occurrence of other future events .hich canno' be assurad. Therefore, the actual results ~chieved way v8ry fro. the projections, and ~uch vnria'io,s couLd be m~te~ial. These projlctions are Dased on an an~lysis of a long-term Lnvestment project ~.t.r~'~. wh.ther further study is dgsirahle.

'0

CXIII nrr
CASH

V-9

FLOW

Ridership

Scenario ~ - Energy Price Ircrease Based on Intra-Corridor. <.terna!. and Induced Deaand /Oon-\,uabl@ Bonds 11983 U.S. Dollar51

1'195 Sourc!& of Cull:

Ootati np P.rfonw'Ct

19%

1997

1998

1999

2981

Tot.) Aidfr&hio Iotal R.venues Ls" Ooerit i n~

& Miint~n~

2. ~16.IIN .a6,4b8,iIM

2.511. il0@ '89.9'18

2.6M.M t93. 567. 1M

2. 71b. 11M 2.~.M 2.996. eM t97.179.ilIN SIIIII,83UI(!\j mU3~.eee

2. '367.eM 1I116.5111.~

3.03ll.8M tUa.53U811

3.1t95.8~ SlIIl.6UMa

3.161. NIl 3.228 S112,72~.111111 '11~.892

E.oenslt
Net ODl!I"Itin9 IncOlll!

S52.IM

$52.898. iIN

s53.7116

'~.527.tM

S55.359.1III11 SSG. ;)3.&ee 2

S56.716.

m. 2~2.l1ili

S57.78!.i108

ssa. :rn.1N0

S58.90il

ILol51 UsH of Cuh:

Debt Al!OiIywnt Inlerest E__ I--'
N

C4.368.lIil

U7.IM.eee

'39.861."'

m.G52,~

HS.~75.e"0

H8.331.1108

S~9.7~.N.l

$SI.29I.1t0e

SS2.822._

'5~.3911.N0

S55.9'I2._

Debt R.tiNld Net Inert

$223.IN.181 Sn,4M,MI

$215.788 S2t8,ZM t74,408,8118 $14,~",.

$2N.8N $193.~011._ $74,48I1,ilIN $14.481,1M

$185.991." $n,4N,1M

'178.SiI '74,4M,.

'171,lIn.I1N f!6J.6N . S74.4N.8I18 $n,401,NII

Sl5O.208. tH,4M.iIM

$148.711I t74.488.ilN

IDtcr,u.1 1$263,132,_) 1t253.iIN.!NII) 1'2~ 739.II"IIf232. ~8.ilINllt222, ~.MI (f2I1. '369.") U2tJ, lib, 1181('l~, leg.mlllsI8S.m.M) UI76.211.01ill (fl67.1118.ilI!Il

in Cuh

:z::r.::%==.:-~aa~z:c.:z~::t::=======Z:;:::=-=:::C==Z=%==E2====.=====:;:==I:==========Z:=::===%:E==%=====:===%==========:===:::c:z:~:r;::===.:.==========.z==::==:==--.:r:=22:::1==================-~

These fin.ncial projections ~.r9 prenared USIng Inform~tion and a~su.ptlons set forth in tha project report ~nd in Aopendix ) of the T~chnlc~l ftppendix to this report. (nfor~~tlon and aS5u~ption. sourc~s in th9 report .ere used .ithout varlfyin~ suc~ d~t~. Altho~Qh ~e belIeve the In'orm~tlon ~nd 8ssu~~tion5 used constitute a reason~hle hlSIS for prep~rlng the projection;, the achieve nt of ~ny financl~) Droj~ction m3Y be affected by fluctuating conditions and ~ill deD~nd on the occurrencg of other future event~ .hich cannot be a5sur~d. Therefore. the actual results achIeved ~~y vary fro~ the projections. and such v2ri~tio,s could b9 m~t.~ial. These projections are based on an ~n~lysls of a long-ter~ investment project to deter",ing IIIhather further study is d9s1rable.

'~o~

1':XIIIHIT CASH

V~LO FLOW

Scenar io 5 - R~uce<i Air FiN's Ridership BiSe<i on Imra-Corr ~n-tikable

idor-, E~ternil. Bonds

Dollars)

and Induced Detoand

11983 U.S.

1995 SourcllS of Ci5h: O~riltl

1996

1997

1998

199'3

2ilill

2902

2\l03

nq Perhrtl.lnrtl
Total Aidl!t"shio 2.218.il\l0 S~,218,1lM 2.3~,M S78.214.NIl 2.391. \l0il $81.246. ilea 2.m.He $84.317.901 2. 569.10il m,428."1 m. 2. 608. ue 575. il0@ 2.717.~ S92, 324,"a 2. 775. ~N m.les. eM 2.835.00il S95.937."e 2.897. He m.8IS.Ni 2.96t.NI1 $9'i. 726. aee Tot. 1 Revenues

lEss ODlntin!! I MilinltnulCII

ENDerl51

SSIl.m,8\l0

Sse.878.1lM

S51.46U01

S52.e59.m

$52.663.89l)

m.276.8N

$53.661. aee

S54.i56.

i0ll

S54. 461. aea

S54. 876.@0Il

$55. 3Ilt. 088

Net Ooer.ting (Loss)

UIiII5

IOCOH

$24,918.lae

$27. 33,.1t0Il

$29.782. eM

$32.258. 00@

H4. 765. Nil

$37.299.'011

S38. 663. eet

S4t. 052. t0il

$41. 476. eilil

S42. 939. \l0il

$44.426. NIl

of Cutn Debt ARIliIYlllnt

Intertlt ENlltnse DIlbt Rlt ired sm,I88 S2H.7M.1I0Il S74, NIl, NIl f2Il7,3M,. S74, NIl, 80a SI99,9a0.Ni $74. eet, \l0il U92,~.* S74. NIl, IlM U85,1a0.eM S74,., 11M SI77,711 $74, 11M, 1M U71.3M.Ne S74. NIl.1K!il U62,9M.eM $74.tIlI.. SI55.~.He S74,_, till '148.18 $74,tIla,. $74, NIl, IlM

Net Increilll IDtcrulI) 1S271, 182, \l0il) ($261, 3,4.1lM) ($251,518.088) 1$241. 642, il\l0) 1$231,735. M) 1$221. 8ill, ilM) 1$213. m. 8\l0) l$2t4, 248. tae) 1$195,424.888) (U86, 561.ilN) ('171.674, ilil~) in Cut! ==::::::%xc::t2 .-...zaa:~=%=======:rc====c==z:=::=:;:=:;===~=====:::====::ae=========:::::======================:e..:==:C=======:========Z:::l:Z='::==I:r:c=======::=::.:=====~====::::==:z==::::=:======::=:============::====

These financial projections ~~r~ prenar~d USing information and a55uwptions set forth in tha project report and in Appendix) of the T}chnic~l Appendl. to this report. rnfor~~tlon and assumptions fro~ SDurc.s in th~ report .ere U58d without v~rlfyin~ such d~t~. Although ~e h@lle~e the lnfor~~ttGn ~nd 8ssu~ptions usad constttut9 a reasonabL~ b~SlS for preparing the projection;, the achlevewent of any financlal proj9ction m3Y be affected by fluctu8tinQ conditions and ~ill depend on the occurrence of other fut~rQ events which cannot be assur~d. Therefore, tha actual results achIeved ~ay very frow the proj~ctions, and such ~~riatio,s could be matQ"i~l. Thesp projections are based on an anplysis of a long-term inve5tment project to
II >._ .

~_.,-,.+-_

.. ,...... "..,. .....

o!"

,'

fl!"

,..O-~t,..~hlc).

EXIl18IT CRSH

v-ri
FLOW

Scenar io 6 - RPduced Infrastructure: Ell!Ctric Propulsion Ridersnip BiSPd on Intri-Corridor. EMternii. ~nd InducPd D~nd Iion-hubl. Bonds 11983 U.S. Dollars)

1m

1CJ96

1997

---------Soure" of Cilh I Oa.ritinp Pwrforuncl Tohl Riden/Ii 0 Tot II R.vellllfi Less br.t in~ E __ nt/lllll\<:l! I Mii
2.291." 178,894 2. 387,ilM 182. 1'l1,!1e8 2.478

1998 2iilll 200~ 2ee5 1m 2001 2002 20~ ----~-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2.571 S88.S82.M

2.665.M '91.888.80@

2. 76i. 000 195.238.800

sa5, 316, ilM

2.818.000 '97.e49.0U

2.879.000 S98.90U!@0

2.9411.1100

J. 803. 800

3.1&8. ~il '104.731.00il

S180. 880. ~01l Sl1t2. 743. 080

m.901.ilM

"4.694.'"

m.498.Ne

S46.314.M

m.142.~

m.

983. a\lI

$48. Sill. 0~0

m.0J0.0~

m.573.001

sse. : 30. ~~0

$5~. 7~0. 000

Net DDtrIt:in~ IncoR (losli) Uses of Cnlu Ih!bt RIIO~y_nt Intrrest b_ Otbt R.tirfi Net
IIICTI (hen.A)

<

$178,518.ilM 159,:I8i,1IM

S172,6M . $59, SM, 918

1166,6II!.898 159, 5il@.8(18

11&8.780.1198 SS9, 588, eel

'154,7IUIIe S59, S0Il, 081

$148.880.'0e 159. Sell,

$142,8'8.000 159, 511e,11M

S136.'J0Uea SS9. 5U. 00@

Im.9et.ilN
'59. SIle. Nil

$l25.i01J.1la0 SS9. SIIe. 1011

'119.80IUU 159. sell. lea

M.

in Cnll
%::%:::::t:~.,..,.

(tell, 086,_) ($194,7113,.) ISl86,282. 098) 1$177,932. 0M) (f169, 454, 008) ('161.845. '1Ie) ('IS3, 751, 011I) (U46. 526. 000) 1t139. 173.000) (m:. 887, 080) 1S124. 469. 000) _~::~:E.%3r%:%=z:==:ltZ==:===:z.==============::=======::.=_-==:=::====_=============::.:z===============--zz::::e::zz:::::.::=================::=::.:z::.===;::===::::::.==::::.::.:=================::::::

These financial projections were pr~par9d u5lng inform~tion and a5suwptlon5 set forth tn the project raport ~nd in Aopendi_ ) of tne T~chnic~l AppendLK to this report. rn'or~~tlon and ~S5umptionq fro~ sourC9S 1n the report re used .it~out v'rlfyln~ sucn d~t~. AltnouQh we belleve the Lnfor~~tion ~nd assu~ptions us~d constitute a reason~ble blS1S for pr9P!ring the proJ@ctioni, the achleve~.nt of any finanCl!1 projection may be affected by fluctuating conditions and will depend on the occurrence of other future events which cannot be assur.d. Therefore, the actual results achieved ~~y v8ry fro~ the projections, and such v~riatio~s could be m~te~ial. These projections are based on an ~n~lysis of a long-term investment project to determine whether further study is d9sirable.

Separate revenue projectioD8 were Dot developed for Scenario8 band 7. Forecast year revenues were aS8umed to be the same a8 for Scenario 1.

FXl'LlfIT CASrl

vLOW

12

Scerar io 7 - Reoueed Infrastructure: Iur a ir.e ~ropu;slon Ridersllp Based on l nt r a-Cor r i dcr . c.ternal. and l ncucso De.an" Non-t a.abi. 80nes 0983 U.S. Dollarsl

1995 Sourc~ of C~1hI Doeratin~ Pufono.nctr lotal At~rshio lolil AI!Vl!nUK Lrss Doerating & !'Iii ntl!nance
Exornw

1996

1997

1998

19'.l9

2.2'H.lilil $78.8'H.iilil

2.387.80@ S82.891.800

2.571.m 2. HB.8lli1 S8S.316. 80@ saa. 582. 000

2. &&5. 000 S91.888. 00~

2. 760. 00a SSS.238. e00

2.8:8.0~~ S9U~9. 000

2. 879. ~~0 2. 940. 0~~ 3. 0~3.000 U68.0~0 S98.904. 0ee $;~a.800.01'0 $1"2.743.000 $104. 73U\00

$42.SM.t0I

$43.493.800

SH. 498. ~00

m.518.illil

W>.553.1100

$H.604.m

$48.250.000

$48. 9!2. 000

S49.59t.000

$50.287. 0~0

$S!.00U00

Nrt Dlll!l"It ng Inco.e i (loul Uws of Cash: Drbt Reoay.nt Interest EIORMf Debt htirwd

S3b.3'H.'"

S38.~98.~

t4UI8.0ilil

m.06U00

m.335.000

m.634.008

m. 799.000

549.992. 000

$5;.20H~0

$52. 4S6.0~0

$53.73:.000

<

SI50,280.lIili $52.118,888

SI51.1180.00I'l Sm.sae.0ilil '52,118.8110 S52.lee.1m

sm. bile. 000 $135.400.000 sm.200.0ili $125.800.000 $52.100,008 $52,100. e0e $52. 1~9.1108 $52,100, Nil

$119.800.000 SIH.500.0J0 $;09.30Iua0 $:04.:00.~00 $52, IIl~.ell!! $52, IIl0.1l\l1l S~2.J0i1.8e~ $52. Jell.lle0

Net Incntau IDKrll"1 1$1 71.996.8INIISI64. se2. 00Il)1S157.U2. 1l0i!) S149. 36.1!~811$142. 65.000) ISm. 666. \IN) IS128.lIl. il01111S12:. 1 6 : 9~8.0001($115.39:.000) IU0S. 944. \l0\lIIU\l2. 4&9.0001 in Calli ==l:=-~CS:;::::::;::::::=============::=:C====::===:':=1:=========:;;==========================================================t:===:::::z=====::::===::::====================================================

The,e financial projections w.r~ pr~D~r!cl USing in'or~~tion and a55u~ptions set forth in th~ project r2p~rt ~nd 1n Acpandi. ) of thg T}ChnlC~1 appendix to this report. rnfor~~tlon and a5;u~ptian. from s~urc~s in th9 report re ~5~d without v~rlfYln~ 5UC~ d~t~. AlthouQh we h211eve the lnform~tlon ~nd ~ssu~~tion5 uspd CrynstLtute a reasonable b~sls for prgp~rinq the projection;, the achl.v~~~nt of ~nv financl~1 proj~ction m~y hq affected by fluctu~tin9 condition5 and will d9p~nd Qn the OCCUrrgnC9 of other future events which cannot he ~ssur.d. Therefore, the actual results achle~9d ~ay v~rv fro~ the proj~ctions, a~d such v~rl~tlO'5 could h9 m~t9~ial. These projections arg based On an ~n~lysis of a 10~g-1Brm lnv9stm9~t proj9ct ta c1.termine Ulh9th~r further study is d~<;lr,,!JI".

Separate revenue projections were not developed for Scenarios band 7. Forecast year revenues were assumed to be the same as for Scenario 1.

EXIlIBIT CASH

V-13 FLOW

Sctnlrio I - BIstline Ridrrship Blsed on Intr.-Corridor and External Detwnd Kon-h blt Bonds (1983 U.S. Dollarsl

1995 So.Ircn of Cull I DoeraU"1 Pwrfonllmc:e Tohl lIid..-shlo Tobl Atv,nura leIS Ibtrdin, I MainttNI'U
EIrDl!Mt

1996

1997

1'1'18

1'l99

2Nl

2113

2W5

2.115.'. $67,889

2.161,'" $69,29~

2.118. $7'.7Ja,1III

2.151'. $72,198,11I

2.21:1 $73,713,'"

2.2% . S75,2U

2.318. $76.815."1

2.361

m.m.'"
$55.784.101

2.415. $81.'79

2.m.11I 2. 52IUM $81.7GB,1N $83.494.

$51,2., III!

$51.889,'"

$52,432

$53.17'._

$53.724.11I

$54.394

$55.181 .

t5b.585.

m.m.1I1

$58.IIUH

11IftOoer.t i",! Inc:.I

IlOlsl $16,68'3._ $17.485,_ tI8.298.. tI9.128._ tI9.979.. t2l.849.... $21.735.11III t22.646.1111 $23,574,1Ilil t24.523.... $25.494._

<l

IlMI of Cull: Dl!bt R.Dly nt

Intert.t ExDllnR Dtbt Retl red

Ntt lncrnw 1Dtc:,.. ') in Cull

$223,111." t14,4II,NI

t215.711,1II t2i8,2II,1III t2III,811.NI .193,411 $74,481,11I $74,411,118 $74,411,11I $14,411,'"

$185,911.181 t178,5II,18I $74,4&1,11I t74,411,'"

t171, . IN tI63,GII.1111 tl56,211.111 $74,411,11I t74,4II.... $74.411..

tI48.7111.1118 $74.4&1,'"

(S2BI,811,_) (t272.615.1II) 1$264,312,11I)1t256,.72 ) (t247,821,1II) 1t239,451,11I) 1t231,1~."')

~2:.Sll&::.az:.-----=_"~:==S:l:Z&:'%ZS==2:::I:.:-Z===:Z:Z::=ZZ&"=%S:::=:z.lIS.I::==2===:S::=:Z::&"&".:2===E.II:.~CC~.It%2::1:c:z%:c=

a:~........

1$222.754 ) (t214.426 ) 1$2Ib,ln.N1) 1$197,686.")

r-T-==z:==--====:z=a::.=z..::~-=Z;I::Z:.:J===&Z:a:Jt::ZS:.==:--.*=.::=

These flnanci~l projections wer~ prenarad uSing information and a5su~ptjons set forth in th~ project r2p~rt ~nd in 40pandiM ) of t~q T~chnic~l ftppendix to this report. rnfor~~tlon and ~ssu~pti~n, fro~ s?urc~s in th9 report were used without v~rlfyln~ suc~ d~ta. Alt~oug~ we b@ll&Ve the lnformation ~nd 8ssu~~tlons us~d c?nstitute a reason~ble b~SlS for pr9paring the proJ~ctioni' the achl.v.~.nt of ~ny financl~l proj9ction m~y bq affec,qd by fluctuating conditions and will depqnd on the Occurrence of other future events .hich cannot be assur~d. Therefore, the actual r~sult5 achleved ~ay ver~ fro~ the proj~ction5' and ;uch v~ri~tio~5 could b9 m~te-lal. These ur~j.ctlons art based on an ~n~l~sis of a lon~-term investment project to ri ,...~\I". ,,,h tl\ .,. t,H-th4r ,,\,/rlv t.~ rh<;t .. "hle.

F:XlIlrn'l'V-14 CASH FLOW

Ridersnip

Scenir io I BOIse<! n Intr-a-Corr-idor. o TUiblt 11983 U.S.

Bis" 1i roe E,ternil. Bonds Dollars)

ind Induced Detl.Jnd

1995 Sourcn of Cilih: Ooorit inp P1!rfora.1ocl! Tot~) RidershiD Tot~l Rlvlnups Le65 Oot/rit i n~ tt.i nl tn.t1\Ce hpenw
III!t Ootr.till!!
(L()!;II

1996

19'37

1998

1999

2N1

2Ilil3

2,2'37 $78,89~, Nil

2.387 . $82.1191,,"

2.HUM $85.316,.

2.571._ Saa,582,.

2.6&5._ '91. ssa, '"

2. 7bt. He S95.238,W

2.S1UN S97.~9.NII

2.879. i0il 2.m.HI $98. '!Il~.&ell mil,~UII8

3.1N3 tlll.H3 .

3.i!6A.He tlII4.731

l51, 291. tee

$51.~._

sse. 798.He

m.61~.t08

'~.442.M

'55. 2a:!. tee

$55. 88Il.1111. $56.3311. ill t

'56. 873.Hi

'SUJI .

$58._

Inco.l S27,69~,tee $3il.1I97.ie& S32.518.. m.%8,eM m,~~6,eeII $39.955.m S~I.2~9.ilee H2.57~.IIM m.927 M $~5.313.1188 S~.711

<!

Usn of Ciih I Debt ha.y_nt Intllrld EMoenle Dl!bt Rill rI!d

III!t Incrt~1I

5312,311 '7~,4e11,.

5381,988,_ S14,48Il,~

S29I,5e11.008 $281,1118,_ S74,~,. '7~,~eII,eell

S271,7M,tee SH,~,1lM

S26i.3II,tM S7~,4II,.

5249,9tIl.MI SH,4III,HI

S239.5M.eee $7~,48t,NI

$229._.ilIMl S74,~N,.

5218.611 S2@8.2M S74,~M,1I1I $74,4iM,.

IDlcHi~)

in C.uh
=====E:::a:=CE:l

(t359,N6,He) 1$346,283,NI) (S333,382.llee) 113211,532.,") 1$3117,654.1188) 1$294,145,") (5283,~I,He) (5271,326. Hi) (SZS9,H3.tee) ($247,687._) ($235,8&9,_1 .:~~c:======:=:t::======:I==============:==========:::=====================::I:r========c::==*=:::=~=========:::t==========::::,%:z~====-~%====:=.:z:s:a

These financiitl p r oj ec t ion s w~re cr?r;:.lr!d USIf'\q r n s o r me t r o n Mnc1 assulIPtions set fort .in t h a o r o j e c t ri'pJrt ,nd in ~CPdncti. ) o f tho l~chnlC~1 appendix to thts r~port. Infor~~tLon and ~s;u~p'iJn; 'ram s~urc~s in thq report .ere u s e o OIllthout lI~rtfyin'l sue", da t a , ~lt",OLJ9" ",e b e Lr e v a t.~e lnform~1ion ~nd ~s5u~~tions u5pd c'Jn;titute ~ re~san~hle h~SlS for orgo~rino the projqction;, th~ achleve~ent of ~ny financt~l Droj~ctl')n m~y bo affect9d by 11uctu~tin9 conditions and 111 dgpqnd 0n the occurrence of ather fut~r9 events ~hjch c~nnot be assur~d. Therefore, the actual rasults achle~pd ~ay v~ry fro~ the proj~ctlons, a~d ,uch V?rl~tlo~5 could bq m~te~ial. Th~s projections are based on an ~n~lysis of a lo~~-term investment project to det r",in whath.r further study t s d'lsir<>hle.

The

ca~ital

costs

will

wi t n t ax+e x einp t 10 percent.

o ond s

be at

financed over an interest

30 jedrS rate of

xhibit V-I.3 presents a cash flow proJection for tne i::lasellne scenario based on intra-corridor and external VliSJ:<. ridership only. Although the annual ridership is s i qn i f i c a n t Ly reduced from the levels shown in Exhibi t V-6 on page V. ~, annual net operat illg income remains positive. ~xhibit V-14 presents a cash flow projection for tne Basellne scenario based on financing with taxable bonds at an interest rate of 14 percent. 'I'hs p r o j e c t i on illustrates i the c a s n flow impact of the higher interest rate. V.7 IMPLICATIONS

Based on the fo r egoi ng assumpt ions and aria Ly s is, it appear s t ha t the proposed rail service would cover its operating and maint enance cos ts by a s i zabl e marg in. However, ne toper at ing inCOIJe would not be sufficient to fully cover capital costs and related financing costs. Due to the uncertain nature o t any profit, potential investors must note that any major negative factors affecting tne rail service's financial pe r f o r marice , sucn as a econ o rn a c downturn, coula result in a negative net operating Ln c orae

On the otner nand, tne induced deuand new commercial transportation system tional clties which possess e~cellent networks and that wer e not previously have n i qh Ly unp r e c i c t ao l e effects, ridersllip and revenue prOJections than

generated by a r e vo Lu t ionary linking two ma j o r internapublic transportation feeder Li n keo witn such ease may and hlay result in nigner are indicated nere.

V.IS

VI.

ISSUES

PERTAINIt~G

TO THE

IhPLEt'llENTATION

AND OPEHATION OF VHSR SERVICE

Th is sect ion implementation types: o o o o o VI.I discusses key issues t na t mus t of VHSR service. These issues be a ddr e s s e d in the

are ot the following

institutional; financial; legal; environmental; customs and and immigration. ISSUES a number of ma j o r issues include:
i

INSTITUTIONAL

If VHSR se r v ice is to De implemented, tiunal issues must be addressed. These o

n s t i tu-

Decisions must be made concerning WhO w i Ll construct and operate the VHSR system. Tne powe r s , responsibilities, staffing and organization, ana accountability of such an organization or organizations must be specified. If required, enabling and/or funding legislation must be passed. Regardless of v n a t; o r q a n i z a t i on or organizations build and operate the VHSR system, policies and a "business plan" should be developed to guide the implementation and operation of the system and to hold the applicable organization(s) accountable. The roles, responsibili ties, and powe r s of the states of New vo r s and Vermont, the Province of Quebec, and other government organizations in planning, financing, constructing, and operating the VHSR system must be decided. The invol vement of Canadian and (]. S. transportation agencies in implementing and operating such service must also be de t e r mi n e d . The operation of intercity rail passen~er service in tne U.S. and Canada I s the responsibility of Ai'1TRAKand VIA Rail, respectively. The level of involvement of tnese agencies in the operation ot a new service in the New York-t~ontreal corridor must be determinea. Likewise, t ue o pe r a t i n q and financial relationships between existlng

vr

intercity rail services (e.g., Adirondack, Montrealer, anu Empire Corridor service) and VHSR serVlce should be determined. Specific issues to be addressed should incluae: the extent to ~hich non-VHSR rail services will continue to De operated; and the level and use of potential savings to AMTRAK for funding VHSR service. o Employee wor k rul es per ta ining to tne cons truction and operation of the VHSR system will significantly impact the cost and financial per formance of the system. As such, policies concerning work rules should De thoroughly evaluated and adopted in conjunction with applicable labor organizations. FINANCIAL ISSUES

VI.2

The financial assessment of VHSR service in this s t u cy indicates that the s e rv ice \1 ill not gen era te d pro fit. As s u ch , it is unlikely that the service will be built and operated by private firms. Consequen tl y , tne respons ibi 1 ity for f Ln an c i n q VHSR service will likely fallon the public sector. The key financial o issues to De addressed include:

A comprehensive financial plan snould be developed that identities the amount, source, anu timing or funds that are re<..juireJ from eacn funding organization to build and operate tne VHSR s y s t em , The financial plan S110Uld De Keyed to each phase of implementing VHSR service (i.e., feasibility study, ErS, preliminary engineering, final design, right of way acquisition, and procurement and construction). The financial plan should evaluate innovative sources of funding such as value capture around stations, incremental tax financing, provision of non-transportation services (e.I:j., communication services, power transmission lines in the right of way), package express services, and otner options. Incentives for encouraging private sector participation (e.g., tourist industry, equipment manufacturers and suppliers, real estate developers) in the financing of the system shoula be evaluated. Formal financial agreements and adopted by all parties cial contriDution agreements should be developed to ensure that finanare met.

VI.2

VI.3 The

LEGAL

ISSUES

geographic scope, cost, and i n s t i t u t i cn a L complexity o t the program v i Ll raise many legal questions. Imt5lelilenting VHSR service as currently proposed is an international project (i.e., Canada-United States) as well as a multi-state project (e.g., New York-Verraont). As such, legal questions are Li x e I y to arise pertaining to tne powe r s of each qov e r runen t a I pa r t i c i pan t to enter into a major capital and ofJeratiny program. Likewise, contracts, letters ot understanding, financial agreements, etc., must De prepared that are satisfactory to all parties.
VHSR

If innovative finanCing mechanisms are considered, tne legality of such mechanisms must be de t e r mi n e d , Similar lY, if any s pe c i e I permit, regulatory, rignt-ot-way acquisition, or other actions are recommended to facilitate the completlon of a project or this scale, the powe r s of the affected governments to implement such actions must be determined and/or the necessary e n ao Li n q legislation drafted and subsequently passed by affected legislatures. A basic but and product and related VI.4 critical of all reviews legal issue is identifying mandatory administrative, and approvals. ISSUES the t i mi n q , scope, tecnnical, financial,

ENVIRONMENTAL

The i mpLeme n t a t i on of proposed VHSl<. service between New York and ~10ntreal is clearly a major construction project. As such, it w i Ll involve many activities wh o s e environmental i mpac t s need to be fully considered and ameliorated wherever possible. Likewise, the operation of VHSR service will have long-term impacts on adjacent development and the economies of the regions in wn i.c n stations are located.
A

deta .i 1 ed, compr enens ~ve env i r o nrne n tal impact a s s e s s men t has not Deen performed in this study nor in the Technical Report. Tnis is because the VHSR a I i qnrne n t , station locations, operating technologies, and other characteristics at the service are not su t r i ciently spec~fied at present to undertake such an assessment. If a decision is maae to u n de r t ax e preliminary engineering Lor VbSR service, an environmental i mpe c t assessment snould be performed concurrently to meet the requirements of the affected ~overnmental agencies.

A number
the merits

of of

environmental VHSR service.

issues should be considered These are discussed below.

in

deciJin~

VHSR service would operate on new alignment between Re n s s e La e r , New York, and Montreal, a distance of approximately 222 miles (357 kilometers). Likewise, it has been sugges.ted that VliSH travel times could be further reduced if new alignment were followed between Croton-Harmon and Rensselaer. The environlilental impacts

VI.3

associated with acquiring must be fully considered. be addressed include, but o

such right-af-way and building the line Specific types of impacts t n a t sn ou Ld are not necessarily lilnited to:

disruption or displacement of residents and businesses, loss ot property values, splitting of nworkingn tracts of land into uneconomically sized tracts and other such impacts on property own e rs in the areas proposed for the VHSR alignment; the taking (e.g., prime af environmentally agricultural land, sensitive park land); land

noise, visual, air quality, and vioration Lrapa c t s on adjacent development as well as impacts of additional electrical power lines on developmerlt; impacts on historic and along the new alignment; archaeoloyical sites

effects 011 adjacent communities and (e.g., barrier disruptions, changes improvement of community activities); impacts on trial and qual ity) .

station areas in land use, and terreswater

the natural environment (e.g., aquatic ecosystems, hydrology,

Th roughou t the en t ire line, the safety impacts or the p ropo s ed service must be assessed. This would include addressing railroad grade crossing safety concerns, the safety of power transmission facilities, and the safety of VHSR operations. A major issue to be addressed is the magnitude, types, timing, and incidence of development and economic impacts associated with VHSR service, particular ly in Vermont. A thorough a s s es srae n t of such economic impacts and their associated environmental and social Lmp a c t s snould be performed in conjunction v i en interested parties and decision-makers to provide a credible, timely oasis for reaching a decision on the merit:s of VHSR service and related development. VI.5 CUSTOlvJS Aim HHlIGRATIOll ISSUES

A special institutional issue tnat must be resolved is the organization, location, and timing oi United States and Canadian customs and immigration inspections so as not to I n t er re re w i t n the operation of VrlSH service. At present, AMTHAK trains are stopped at tne border and inspectors perform prescribed checks. This is a time-consumin~ process, an~ one that is frustrating an~ lnconv en i en t for pa ss anqe rs . If continued, t n i s process vou t d seriously degrade VHSR travel times and detract from its
competitiveness.

vr.4

Pr ocedur es

for conducting pr escr ibeu checks ei t ne r aboar u VHSR trains, as are done routinely in Europe and o t n e r areas, or at selected stations (e.g., Montreal) shoula be identifIed, evaluated, and adopted to facilitate VHSR service.

VI.5

VII.

PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY

ASSESSMENT

Thi~ o

section

presents: factors not covered in Sections III, or VI that should be cons idered in asthe f eas ibi 1i ty and des irabil i ty o f VHSR and assessment of the ser-

important IV, V, sess ing service;

a preliminary feasibility vice based on this analysis. ASSESSl'1ENT OF ADDITIONAL SERVICE to the impacts, proposed

VII.l

H1PORTANT

FACTORS AfFECTING

VHSR

In addition financial uating the o

previously discussed r i de r s n i p , economic, certain factors should be co n s i d e r e d in VHSR service. Sucn factors include: in highway and other anJ impacts on other transpormodes or

and eval-

po t e n t i a I savings tation investments travel: and

potential requlrements for and parking at VHSR stations. issues are discussed Savings below. in

puolic

transit

service

These VILl.l

Potential Investments

Highway

and

Other

'l'ransportation

The proposed VHSR service is projected to divert sizable volumes of air, auto, and bus intercity travel in the corridor. For the Baseline scenario in the year 2005, the absolute number of intracorridor air, auto, and bus trips is estimated to increase relat i vet 0 198 2 1eve 1s . H eve r , 0\-,1 t 11e i r como i n e d mar k e t s h are 0 f corridor travel is projected to decline from 91.6 percent in 1982 to 80.1 percent in the year 20U5 for business trips and t r oin 94.4 percent to 80.0 percent for non-business trips. The diversion of auto trlps to VHSR service would have the benefit of reducing the growth in auto trattic v o Lume s on heavily used interstate highways in tne corr idor, including the New Yor x state Thruway, Northway (1-87), 1-89, and Highway 15 ln Canada. Hany of these n i.qhva y s car ry h i qn t r a f f i c volumes our a n q pe ax travel periods and during weekends and holidays in seasonal vacation periods. The proposed VHSR service is p r o j e c t e o to draw s igni f i can t levels of non-bus iness tr avel from present au t omob i Le trips. Many oi these trips are lIkely to ce diverted during peak weekena and holiday travel periods, which could help reduce congestion and e I i.nu na t e the need to expand or reconstruct some ot these facilities.

VII.l

Air travel volumes are estimated to increase in absolute terms as well as in market share. Nevertueless, tne growth in rail travel will help to alleviate potential capacity problems at several airports in the corridor. For example, operators at "t n e t n r e e alrpor ts serving the New Yor k Ci ty ar ea all continue to gr Ql;J and approach their capaci ties. co ns i ce r ac i e delays occur because ot t his . Li k e \/ i s e , the r e c e n t s i g n i f i can t g row t n in air t r a vel at Burlington International Airport has resulted in crowded terminal and parking conditions. Proposed VHSR service whe n implemented could help relieve growth pressures on airport facilities and services. VHSR service is not projected to have a large impact on intercity bus se rv i ce in the cor r i do r Al though the mark et share for bus trips is estimated to decline somewhat between 1982 and 2005, the number of intra-corridor intercity bus riders is ~rojected to increase in absolute terms. This occurs, in part, because of the growth in travel demand OVer time. VII.1.2 Potential Parking Requirements VHSR Stations for Public Transit Service and

at

iditl1 t h e introduction of VHSH. s e r v i c e , tne n urno e r ot intercity rail passengers to be servea at eacn of the four e x i s t i n q rail stations will increase significantly. In a dd i t i o n , two new stations will be operated. This will result in the need to improve and expand parking, public transportation, and baggage h anu.i zn q facilities and services at several of tne stations. It t ne s e facilities and services are not adeyuate, this cuuld constrain or possibly cause the loss ot VHSR riClersnip. Extensive PUblic transportation serVices are in place serviny Central Station in I10ntreal anu Pennsylvania Station in Ne\.J York City. However, there may be a need to supplement existing PUOllC services or implement new ones in the Burlington, Rutland, Albany, .and Poughkeepsie areas to ~ink maJor activity centers (e.g., CBDS, employment centers, universities) to VHSR stations. The demand for pa r x i n q at the existing stations w i Ll increase s igni f .i c an tl y, par t icular 1y in Albany and Pouyhkeeps ie vhe r e the predominant mode of travel to and frolJ the station is likely to be the automobile. parking demands associated w i t h Central station in t10ntreal are likely to increase substantially, as many rail riders are likely to drive to the station. However, an extensive parking supply appears to be available in the vicinity of the station. In New York City, most riders are likely to use puolic t ranspor ta ti on and tax is rather than pr i va te autos to r e a cn or uepart from pennsylvania Station. The ings following table compares 1982 and 2U05 b o a r d i n qs at the poughkeepsie, Albany, and Montreal stations. and alight-

VII.2

ANNUAL BOARDINGS/ALIGHTINGS (BASELINE SCENARIO: INTRA-CO~RIDOR, INDUCED, AND TOURISM TRIPS) "Station 1982 2005 poughkeepsie Albany Montreal
13,000 314,000 226,000

Ra"tio 17.5 4.6 17.3

1,447,UOO 789,000

46,UOO

The ratio of 2U05 to 1982 rldership is a rough indication of the requ ired increase in par k i n q supply, par t icu lar Ly at the pougnkeepsie and Albany stations. It is Impo r t an t that s ucn requirements be considered in the de s i qn of the service and t na t poten ti al en vir oru.ie n tal impacts associated with a d d i tional station traffic and parking be fully considered. VII.2 PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT

The Technical Report concluded tnat VHSR service was operationally feasible for the New York City-Montreal corridor. The major findings of this market, economic impact, and financial analysis study are summarized b e Low , These findings are for the VHSR system as defined by the Baseline scenario. o The proposed VHSR service is projected to attract a significant increase in rail r i de rsn i p in the corridor. Rail ridership is estimated to increase from approximately 549,000 annual trips in 1982 to 3,U68,000 annual trips in tne y e a r 2005 for tne Baseline scenario. The market share tor rail trips is also projected to increase significantly from 6.6 percent in 1982 to 15 percent in 2005 for intra-corrldor travel. The estimates of inducea VHSH ridership are su o j e c t to greater uncertainty than tne e s t i ua t e s of intra-corridor and external VHSR ridership. The induced demand es t ima tes prov ide a p La us Lo Le basis for assessing the marKet and financial characteristics of this proposed service. However, rigorous market research analyses should be conducted as par t of a formal feas Lb i. 1 i ty st udy to s uo s t an t i a t e the data and a s s ump t i on s used in this study. Economi c impacts associated wi th VHSR constr uction are estimated to be $4.U billion (1983 U. S. $). These impacts vou I o occur as a di reet result of constructing the VHSR rignt-of-way and associated support facilities.

VII.3

Approximately construction the four-year

3,OOlJ jobs (12,223 worker-years of employment) will De generated during construction period.

Annual economic impacts ope rat ions are estimated lion (1983 U.S. $) in $116 million in 2005. these impacts would be region, where extensive will be performed. Annual economic impacts ridership are estimated (1983 U.S. si,

associated with VHSR range from $106 mi I19~5 to approximately The largest portion of realized in the Albany maintenance functions to associated to be over wi t h induced .:Ii 2 U 0 in i 11 ion

Annual economic I mpac t s assoc la t ed with induced tourism and recreation in Vermont are estimated to reach $1.44 billion bj 20()S, ana are proJected to continue at that level. The preliminary financial analysis o f VH.sR service found that the service would cover its annual operating and mai nt e nanc e costs by a S12able margin if fares are set well above existing Ai'lTHAK fares. Howev e r , passenger revenues will not meet annual capital Obligations for constructing the service.

VII.4

APPENDIX

APPENDIX COUNTIES AND CENSUS

A IN EACH ~ONE

DIVISIONS

New York Zone New Zone 1 York 2

Region

Poughkeepsie Zone

Reglon

19

(Manhattan),

NY

Dutchess, NY orange, NY Ulster, NY

Bronx, NY Kings, NY Nassau, NY Queens, NY Zone

Albany Zone

Region

Fairfield, CT Putnam, NY Hestcbester, i'1Y Zone 4 NY

Albany, NY Rensselaer, NY Saratoga, NY scnenectady, NY Zone

Suffolk, Zone
5

Greene, NY Montgomery, NY Schoharie, NY Zon~

10
1'1A NY

Bergen, NJ Essex, NJ Hudson, NJ Morris, NJ Passaic, NJ Rockland, NY Zone 6

Berkshire, Columbia,

Rutland Zone 9

Region

Middlesex, NJ ~Ionmouth, NJ Richmond, NY Somerset, NJ Union, NJ

Bennington, VT Rutland, VT iJashing ton, NY Burlington Zone Region

11
VT

Chittenden,

A.l

APPENDIX

A (Continued) Zone 17 Argenteuil, PQ Berthier, 1'Q Deux-Montagnes, PQ Joliette, PQ L'Assomption, PQ !1asKinon':je,PQ Montcalm, PQ Papineau, PQ Terrebonne, PQ Zone 18

Zone 12
franKlin, VT Grand Isle, VT Lamollle, VT Orleans, VT Zone 13 Addison, VT Hashington, VT 'lontreal Region Zone 14 Ile-de-Montreal, PQ Ile-Jesus (Laval), PQ Zone 15 Beauharnois, PQ Chambly, PQ Chateauguay, PQ Huntingdon, PQ Laprairie, PQ Napierville, PQ Saint-Jean, PQ Vercheres, PQ Zone 16 Soulanges, PQ Vaudreuil, PQ Glengarry, ON Prescott, ON Stormont, ON

Bagot, PQ Brome, PQ Drummond, PQ Iberville, PQ f.1issisquoi, PQ Richelieu, PQ Rouvil1e, PQ Saint-Hyacinthe, Shefford, PI,.! Sherbrooke, PQ Stanstead, PQ Yama sk a , PQ

PQ

1-i.2

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B CALIBRATION COEFFICIENTS OF CROSS-ELASTICITY MODEL

Purpose Business

Mode Auto Bus Air Rail

~-3.384 -3.384 -3.384 -3.384 -1.582 -1.582 -1.582 -1. 582

~2_ -0.483 -0.483 -0.483 -0.483 -1. 582 -1.582 -1.582 -1.582

__ a 3_
0
0

1.0 0.3767 1.1232 1. 4813 1.0 1.3872 0.7767 1.9881

4.5 4.5 0 0 4.5 4.5

Non-Business

Auto Bus Air Ra-il

B.l

APPENDIX C

APPENDIX C
Counties Included in Regional Economic Impact Analysis

New York, NY Bronx, NY Kings, NY Nassau, NY Queens, NY Dutchess, NY Putnam, NY Westchester, NY Suffolk, NY Rockland, NY Richmond, NY Albany, NY Rensselaer, NY Saratoga, NY Schenectady, NY Greene, NY Montgomery, NY Schoharie, NY Bennington, VT Rutland, VT Washington, NY Columoia, NY Chittenden, VT Franklin, VT Grand Isle, VT Lamoille, VT Orleans, VT Addison, VT Washington, VT

C.l

APPENDIX

APPENDIX ASSUMPTIONS AND SOURCES

D OF INFORMATION

This used

appendix describes major analysis assumptions in this study of Very High Speed Rail Service. SERVICE BETIlEEN MONTREAL AND

and

input

data

PASSENGER

NEH YORK

VIA

VERMONT

The methodologies, assumpt ions, sources of data, and other supporting documentation are an integral part of our report. The the data provided in this appendix represent the basis for are findings of the cash flow analysis, and the sources indicated those on which we relied. The financial projections are based on assumptions provided by the study Management Group (SMG) (which is comprised of representatives of New York State DOT, Vermont Agency of Transportation, Le Ministere des Transports du Quebec, and La Commiss ion d In itia t ive et de Developpemen t Economiques de Montreal) and the other sources cited concerning future events and circumstances. The assumptions disclosed are those the SMG believes are significant to the projections or are factors on wh ich the fu tur e financial resul ts of the VHSR pr 0 ject depend. Some assumptions will fail to materialize, and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur subsequent to the date of these pro ject ions. Therefor e, the actual resul ts ach ieved our ing the projection per iod may vary from the projections, and the variations could be material.
I

The assumptions grouped into the o o o o o o Very High

and data following Speed Rail

used major

in the financial categories: Operating Plan;

analysis

may

be

(VHSR)

Revenue Ridership Capital Operating Inflation

Assumptions; Estimates; Cost and and Assumptions; Maintenance Interest Cost Assumptions; and

Rate for

Assumptions. these assumptions and data are

The sources of information presented in this appendix.

D.l

VHSR OPERATINGPLAN

Assumptions The VHSR alignment jurisdIctions: the of Quebec. The (585 kilometers)

and Estimates to Montreal lies within three primary the State of Vermont, and the Province route is approximately 365 miles

Source(s) of Assumptions

Information for and EstImates

from New York City State of New York, length of the

de Courtois, G. and R., Cou r j au Lt+Rad e , Very High Speed Rail Service Between Montreal and Nev York Prefeasibility Study Final Report, June 1984 (revised December 1984). VHSR Study Management Group.

The VHSR service would operate on Host of the new rights-of-way would Station to station travel a maximum train speed of

both existing and be located between

new rail rights-of-way. Albany and Montreal. the corridor assuming

times have been developed for 185 miles per hour (300 km/h).

Six station sites are included in the corridor: Montreal, Burlington, Rutland, Albany, Poughkeepsie, and New York City. Existing rail stations will be utilized in four of the six regions. These are: Central Station (Montreal), Rensselaer Station (Albany), AMTRAKStation (Poughkeepsie), and Pennsylvania Station (New York City). New stations will be constructed in Burlington in the general vicinity of the Burlington International Airport, and for Rutland in the general vicinity of Whitehall, New York. Fourteen trains are assumed to operate daily York City and Albany, with six of these trains and Montreal. All trains serve all intermediate in each operating stations. direction between between New York New City

This pr ef e a s Lbf.Ll t y study assumed that revenue service on the VIISR system would begin at the start of calendar year 1995. The actual start of revenue service could be earlier or later, depending on the outcomes of feasibility and financial studies, and on the decisionmaking and implementation process. The financial analysis in this study is based on a four-year construction schedule.

REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS

Assumptions and Estimates Estimates of VIISR travel demand that would be diverted from made using fares equal to 150 percent of 1982 AMTRAK interchanges currently served. ANTRAl< fares were defined as round trip fares. Fares were calculated for interchanges not based on the distances and fares for the other interchanges. Estimates of VHSR current air fares. travel were made using air fares equal other modes were fares for those half the regular presently served

Source(s) of Information for Assumptions and Estimates Study Management Group and Peat Marwlck based on fares supplied hy NYSDOT. calculations

to 75 percent

of

r)

v)

RIDERSIIIP EST {MATES

Assumptions Base-Year Air Travel Travel

and Estimates

Source(s) of Information for Assumptions and Estimates

Estimates of 1982 air passenger volumes between the six regions were obtained from the U.S. Civil Aeronautics Board and from Transport Canada. The estimates are based upon a 10 percent sample of air passenger tickets used on commercial air carriers. Airport to ai rport volumes were obtained for interstate and intrastate air carriers. Trips to and from the New York region were allocated to zones by trip purpose using the results of air passenger surveys conducted at the three major airports by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Trips to and from the Al bany region were allocated to zone 7 based on the results of the 1975 Albany Airport survey, and to the remaining zones based on population. For trips to and from Burlington and Montreal, a majority was allocated to the central zone based upon discussions with professionals knowledgeable about the local distribution of air passengers in those regions. The remaining trips were allocated among the outlying zones based upon population. Rail Travel CJ Rail passenger station volumes volumes for 1982 were were taken from AMTRAK provided by NYSDOT. ticket tabulations. These station to

U.S. Civil Aeronautics Transport Canada.

Board.

Port Authority of New York/New Surveys: 1972 and 1978. NYSDOT: 1975 Albany Airport

Jersey Airports

Survey.

Peat Harwick

calculations

based on the above.

NYSDOT Data and Computer NYSDOT 1975. NYSDOT State: Report: New York

Summaries. State Intercity Travel Data,

A 1979 NYSDOT rail ridership survey was used to allocate New York-Albany trips by trip purpose and by zonal interchange. Trips between other regions were allocated based upon the relative population of zones within a region, proximity of zones to rail stat ions, and prior estimates of trips by trIp purpose. Auto Travel Auto travel volumes between Montreal and the other five regions were estimated using two primary sources: the 1983 Quebec Border Crossing Survey, conducted by the Quebec Ministry of Transport, and Statistics Canada tabulations of vehicles and passengers entering Canada by port of entry for calendar year 1982. The border crossing survey was a deta iled origin-destinat ion survey conducted at the most likely border crossing locations for travelers between Montreal and the other regions. The results of this survey were used to allocate the actual border crossing volumes to zonal interchanges. The survey was a Lso used to develop trip purpose allocations for each region-region interchange.

Report: Concept

High-Speed Rail Service in Study Technical Report, 1969. based on the above.

New York

Peat Harwick

calculations

Quebec 1983.

Ministry

of Transport

Border

Crossing

Survey,

Statistics NYSDOT 1975. NYSDOT State: NYSDOT

Canada New York State Intercity Travel Data,

Report:

Report: Concept

High-Speed Rail Service in New York Study Technical Report, 1969. Volume Report. based on the above.

1982 Traffic

Peat Harwick

calculations

RIDERSHIP EST lHATES (Cont l nuod )

Source(s) __________ A----"s-"s-'u_m"'p-'t_J_.o_'_'s_a_n_d_E ..os..:t-=i"-m"'ac-t'--e'--s

of

Information and

for _

As sump t ~ons

Es t 1mat e_s

The actual 1982 auto travel volume between New York Ctt y and Albany was not available. An estimate of the 1975 volume was obtained from the NVSDOT travel demand study of that year. This volume was udpated to 1982 by using a growth rate estimated from New York State Thruway volume counts. This growth rate (approximately 10.3 percent between 1975 and 1982) was derived from the growth in traffic volume at the lowest volume link on the Thruway between New York and Albany. The resultant 1982 volume estimate was then adjusted to account for differences in the definitions of regions between the 1975 study and this study (S~SA definitions were used in the 1975 study). The trips were allocated by purpose based on estimates from the 1975 study, and were allocated to zones based on estimates presented in the 1968 NYSOOT lligh Speed Rail Concept Study. Estimates of auto travel between New York and Burlington were not available. It was assumed that this interchange was analogous to that between New York and Plattsburgh, for which 1968 and 1975 estimates were available. The 1975-1982 growth factor derived for New Yor k-Al bany was also used for this interchange. Trip allocations by zone were based on the prior studies and on the relative populations of the zones in the Burlington region. The only available estimate of the auto travel volume between Albany and Burlington is from the 1968 NYSOOT High Speed Rail Concept Study. This estimate was based upon a gravity model. This estimate, for travel between the Albany SNSA (zone 7) and the Burlington SMSA (zone 11), was equal to one-tenth the estimate of travel between Montreal and Al bany listed in that study. This factor was applied to the previously derived estimate of 1982 Montreal-AI bany trips. The resulting trip volume was then expanded to the other zonal interchanges between Albany and Burlington based on population. The Albally-Burlington auto trips were divided by purpose using Information from the 1968 study. Auto volumes for the remaining NYSDOTHigh Speed Rail Concept Bus Travel Estimates of intercity bus passenger volumes in 1982 were not available, except for trips between Montreal and New York. Estimates were derived based on prior New York State studies and the Port Authority Bus Terminal surveys of 1972 and 1980. According passenger to the 1980 Port Authority Bus Terminal Survey, long-haul bus flows to and from the New York Ci t y area have changed little since 1975. Consequently, 1975 NYSnOT estimates of bus passenger volumes for New York-Albany and Albany-Montreal were used to estlmate 1982 bus volumes. NYSDOT Report: New York State Interc ity Travel Data, interchanges Study. were also developed using the

U1

1968

1975.
NYSDOT Report: State: Concept The Port Authority Surveys, Author! Bus 1972. High-Speed Rail Service Study Technical Report, in New York

1969.

ty of New York and New Jersey Port TermInal Or Lgl n and Destination

RIDERSIlIP

EST IHATES

(Cont lnuc d )

Assumptions

and

Estimates for 1975 was not an estImate from the observed in bus travel Again it was nssumed

Source(s) of Assumptions Port Authori ty Passenger Surveys. Statistics Quebec Canada. Ministry of
BlIS

information for and Estima_t_c_s Terminal 1980

_ Bu s and Bus

An estimate of bus ridership for New York-Burlington available. However, an estimate was made by multiplying 1968 NYSDOT High Speed Rail Concept Study by the growth between New York and Plattsburgh between 1968 and 1975. that these two interchanges were analogous.

Transport. based on the above.

An estimate of bus passenger volumes between Albany and Burlington was not available. The estimate derived for the bus passenger volume between Albany and Montreal was approximately 13,000. Since data were limIted, and the volume in question was small, it was decided to assign a volume to the Albany-Burlington interchange based on the Al.ban y-Hon t r e a I volume. The Albany-Burlington bus volume was e s t Lmat e d to be 10,000 for the base year. The four estimates described above were then adjusted to reflect in regional definitIons between the prior studies and this study. allocated to zones based on the 1972 Port Authority Bus Terminal on relative zonal populations. Trips were allocated by purpose two NYSDOT travel studies. differences Trips were Survey, and based on the

Peat

Marwick

calculations

An estimate of bus travel between Montreal and Burlington was developed by multiplying the number of bus passengers who crossed the international border at Philipsburg during 1982 by the proportion of auto survey respondents at that location who indicated that they were traveling between the Montreal region and the Burlington region. The auto survey was also used to distribute these trips by purpose and zone. BUB volumes between Poughkeepsie and Al bany were estimated based on the relative frequency of bus service between Poughkeepsie and Albany and between New York City and Albany. No other bus volumes to and from Poughkeepsie were estimated, as there is no convenient bus servIce to any of the other regions. An estimate of intercity bus travel between Montreal and New York in 1982 was provided by the Quebec Ministry of Transport. Trips were allocated to zones in New York based on the 1972 Port Authority Bus Terminal Survey and to zones in Montreal based on the border crossing survey. Trips were allocated by purpose based on the 1975 NYSDOT study. Base-Year Travel Service Characteristics developed for each zonal interchange costs for auto, bus, air, and rail service and access, egress, and teminal times a nd NYSDOT. AMTRAK. Official The line-haul travel times, travel costs, and Lr e que nc Le s were obtained from published schedules and fare tables for the common carrier modes. Bus information was obtained from the OfficIal BllS Guide and from va r t o us carriers. Air information was obtained from a mid-1982 issue of the Official Airline Guide. Rail informatIon was obtained from both Amtrak and NYSDOT. Official Bus Guide. Airline Guide.

The base-year travel characteristics included line-haul travel times and frequencies for bus, air, and rail, costs for each mode.

RIDERSHIP ESTUIATES (Continued)

Assumptions

and EstImates

Source(s) of Assumptions

Information for and Estimates Cost of

Auto travel times were based on the most direct route between zone centers and an average speed of 50 mph. Auto travel costs were estimated based on the average automobile owning and operating costs for 1982 as reported by the Federal Highway Administration. This estimated cost (16.8 cents per mile) includes maintenance, gas and oil, insurance, and taxes for an intermediatesize car. Tolls were also included where applicable. These costs were divided by 1.4 for business trips and 2.4 for non-business trips to reflect average automobile occupancy. Station access, egress, and terminal mode for each zone. Sources of data The The The times and inciuded: Surveys; cost were estimated for each

U.S.DOT, Federal Highway Administration, Owning and Operating Automobiles and Vans, Port Authority of New York Surveys: 1972 and 1978. and New Jersey

1982.
Airport s

New York City Department of City Planning Port Authorlty of New York/New Jersey: Public Transportation Services to Airports. Airport Parking Operators. New York State Intercity

and the Improved

1978 Port
Official

Authority Airline Authority Operators;

Airport Guide;

NYSOOTReport: 1975. Peat Harwick

Travel

Data,

calculations

based

on above.

1982 Port
Parking

Airport and

Access

Study;

Airport The t:i Travel

1975 NYSDOTTravel Factors total upon intercity historical

Demand Study.

Growth

Projections of and 2005 based future growth.

travel were growth in

made for the forecast travel and assumptions

years 1995 regarding

Peat Harwick calculations above for base-year travel.

based

on

sources

referenced

The best available historical estimates for intercity travel were for the New York-Albany and New York-Montreal interchanges in the 1968 NYSDOT lIigh Speed Rail Concept Study. Estimates were made for travel between subareas of the New York region and the Albany and Montreal metropolitan areas. These estimates were aggregated to correspond with the analysis zones. used in this study. The results of this analysis were estimates of 1968 travel volumes between the New York region and the Hontreal region, and between the New York region and zone 7, which corresponds to the 1970 definition of the Albany SMSA. Historical travel growth rates were then derived using these estimates and the corresponding estimates of 1982 travel volumes developed in this study. The growth rates for the Burlington-oriented projected population and economic growth of These rates were selected by Peat Harwick. interchanges region by reflect year the 2005.

that

the

RIDERSHIP

ESTIMATES

(Continued)

Assumptions Ridership Analysis Procedure:

and Estimates Intra-Corridor Travel

Source(s) of InformatIon for Assumptions and Estimates

In this study, the models were calibrated for use in the New York-Montreal corridor by estimating base-year modal shares for a set of zonal interchanges using an adaptation of model CN27 and then adjusting the constant coefficient C for each mode until the observed modal shares were replicated. These models were calibrated for the New York-Albany portion of the corridor. Ridership Analysis Procedure: External Travel

Peat Marwick calibration Modal Split Model.

using

Peat Marwick

Intercity

Projections of "external" travel were made using a pivot-point analysis technique. The modified CN27 modal split model was used to estimate modal shares for external trip interchanges for both the pre-VHSR and VIISR conditions. The relative improvements in rail ridership as estimated by this modeling procedure were then applied to the actual rail trip volumes for the base year (Le., 1982). The results were then factored to represent forecast-year travel using a compounded growth rate of 2.5 percent per year. Base-year travel service characteristics were estimated for these external trip interchanges using published schedules and fare tables. Access, egress and terminal times and costs were estimated based on the size of the metropolitan areas involved. These characteristics were assumed to be the same for the forecast year, with the exception of rail travel times and frequencies. Rail modal shares were then estimated for both the pre-VHSR and VHSR conditions. The ratio of the two modal shares (VIISR divided by pre-VHSR) for each interchange was then multiplied by the actual base-year rail travel volume. Ridership Analysis Procedure: Induced Intra-Corridor VHSR Ridership

Peat Marwick Peat Marwick

Intercity,Modal calculations.

Split Model.

t:J

Induced travel on the VIISR system was estimated using two separate techniques. One technique involved the use of an induced demand formula. The formula estimates the level of induced demand for an interchange based upon the rail modal share projected for that interchange. The induced demand formula technique was applied separately for business and non-business travel for each regional interchange except for New York-Albany. The second technique for estimating induced travel involved the project team's judgmental selection of an inducement factor considered reasonable for the New Y0rk-Albany interchange. For the purpose of this analysis it was assumed that 15 percent of intra-corridor travel would be induced to use VHSR service. Ridership Analysis Procedure: Tourism/Recreation Travel State data. of Vermont tourism and recreation visitation Peat Harwick selected this factor in order to provide a plausible estimate of induced demand. No previous analyses of induced demand caused by the introduction of new transportation services have been conducted.

To prepare a scenario for the projection of induced tourism/recreation VHSR travel, a series of assumptions were made. These assumptions are subjective, and the resulting projections of travel are an illustration of one possible outcome resulting from new development in Vermont.

Peat Marwick calculations and assumptions Gellman Research Associates, Inc. analysis.

based

on

RIDERSHIP ESTIMATES (Continued)

Assumptions These assumptions are:

and Estimates

Source(s) of Assumptions

Information for and Estimates

The incremental volume of tourism/recreation travel observed after the opening of the Interstates 89 and 91 (1.5 million visitors/year) is assumed to occur due to the implementation of the VHSR system. None of this incremental volume would be realized instantaneously with the introduction of the VHSR service, b~t the entire volume would be realized by 2005. The entire volume of induced travel is assumed to be made to and from Vermont. Based on current estimates of lodging capacIty in Vermont, 65 percent is assumed to be made to and from the Burlington region, and the remaining 35 percent would be made to and from the Rutland region. Of the Induced travel, U.S., and 20 percent in 80 percent Canada. is assumed to originate in the

Half of the U. S.-based travel is assumed to originate within the VHSR corridor, and the other half outside the corridor. Although the new development in Vermont would be induced by the introduction of the VHSR service, this development would, in turn, attract trips from locations outside the VHSR service area, such a9 Boston, Hartford, Springfield, and New Hampshire, where access to Vermont is relatively convenient. Of the U.S.-based travel originating within the corridor, 80 percent is assumed to originate in the New York region, 15 percent in the Albany region, and 5 percent in the Poughkeepsie region. This judgment was made because New York would realize a dramatic reduction in travel time to Vermont with VHSR service. Of the Canadian-based the Montreal region, corridor. travel 80 percent and 20 percent is assumed to originate in areas outside the in VHSR

For all but the Al bany-Rutland and Burlington-Montreal regional interchanges, projections of induced tourism/recreation travel on the VIISR system interchanges were derived by multiplying the person-trip estimates by the VHSR modal shares estimated for non-business travel for intra-corridor trips. For the Burlington-Montreal interchange, a revised VHSR modal share was computed by excluding selected zonal interchanges (I.e., 12-15 and 12-18) as these interchanges consist predominantly of short trips. The revised VIISR modal share was then used to project VHSR ridership.

CAPITAL COST ASSUHI'TIONS

Assumptions

and

EstImates

Source(s) of Assumptions

Information for and Estimates

The c ap I tal cost for the proposed VIISR service is $2.231 hillion in 1983 u.s. dollars. These costs include land acquisition, preliminary engineering, and design. However, they do not include a number of potentially significant costs. First, some of the lnfrastructure costs from Central Station in Montreal to Saint Lambert, a distance of 6.4 kilometers (4.0 miles), are not included. However, modification costs, such as for electrification and signals, have been identified in the Technical Report and are included in the capital cost estimate. Second, the cost of new stations in Burlington and Rutland is not included. Third, the cost of modHications to the Albany/Rensselaer and Poughkeepsie stations is not included. Fourth, the cost of mitigating clearance problems for other trains created by the installation of catenary under the decks of existing overhead bridges and tunnels is not included. Finally, the infrastructure costs at Pennsylvania Station in New York and vicinity are not included. The estimated period required capital e xpe nd t t u re s for each year In the 4 year construction to open the line on January 1, 1995, are as follows: Capital Millions of Cost 1983 U.S. $191 862 860 318 Total

de Courtois, G., and R. Cou r j au l t+Ra de , Very lIigh Speed Rail Service Between Montreal and New York Prefeasibility Study Final Report, June 1984 (revised De c ernbe r 1984). VIISR Study Management Croup.

TAD Analysis

t:1
f-' 0

Year I

(in

Dollars)

2
3 4

T2;T3I"

OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE

COSTS ASSUMPTIONS

Assumptions and Estimates Projections of operating and maintenance costs for the forecast years 1995 and 2005 are presented in the Technical Report.

Source(s) of Information for Assumptions and Estimates de Courtois, G., and R. Cou rj a u l t+Rad e , Very High Speed Rail Service Between Montreal and New York Pre feasibility Study Final Report, June 1984 (revised December 1984). Peat Harwick projections. calculation based on ridership

Projections for the intermediate years were developed on yearly changes Ln ridership levels.

by interpolation

based

t:J

INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE ASSUtlPTlONS

Assumptions All costs dollars. and revenue

and Estimates in this report are expressed in

Source(s) of Assumptions

Information for and Estimates

estimates

1983

U. S.

Peat

Marwick

The magnitude of the VHSR project and lack of sufficent revenues to allow for rolling over short term debt into long term indebtedness makes the project an unlikely candidate for revenue bonds. Therefore, the project could require the issuance of long-term general obligation bonds backed by the full faith and credit of the states and province through which the rail line passes. A quasi-public agency or the individual jurisdictions could administer the obligation. During the construction phase it was assumed that yearly borrowings will equal yearly expenditures by means of vendor credits and locally backed short term borrowings. Upon the opening of the line for revenue service, the debt would be converted to 30 year staged redemption, serial bonds. The applicable interest rate would depend on whether the bonds qualify for tax exempt status. The international aspects of the rail line may preclude tax exempt status unlike a route built solely in the U. S. The interest rate is currently 10 percent for tax exempt bonds and 14 percent for taxable bonds for similar projects. These rates were assumed for this analysis. The 10 percent rate is based on the state and local bond rate published in the May 1984 issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. The 14 percent rate is based on the average corporate bond rate for the same period and comes from the same source. The analysis period consists of two parts. During the four year construction period, financing is assumed to come from short term instruments. The amortization period would extend over 30 years. The proposed rail line's similarity with utility projects and the need to spread the total project cost over as many years as possible resulted in the selection of such a long amortization period despite the interest cost. It seems unlikely that the investment would become physically exhausted within this period. The Japanese Skinkansen recently celebrated its twentieth anniversary with its original right-of-way structure and rolling stock. The proposed project's rolling stock mayor may not possess a useful life of 30 years. The rolling stock's useful life will depend on whatever repair/replacement policy the operating agency adopts. However, stations possess a life corresponding to improved real estate. Finally, the civil engineering investment of clearing and leveling the right-at-way possesses an indefinIte life span.