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policiesandissuesinperspective

A publication of the School of Economics, University of Asia & the Pacific, Philippines

Philippine population: Whats the issue?

Is population growth related to the development of a nation? Is there a correlation between fewer (more) people and more (less) income? Does population have anything to do with the 1997 Asian crisis, the market crash of 2008, and the current global uncertainties?

Ramon M. Quesada PhD

Chairman and CEO Small Business Corporation

his article presents population data such as fertility, population growth rate, and population density in relation to gross domestic product and average family income to check out whether population is really an issue in the Philippines.
1. Does government policy affect population growth? Former presidents and administrations differed in their policies, programs and projects on population. Those for population control were: Marcos, Ramos and ERAP. During their time substantial dollar grants were directed to population control programs. (Cory) Aquino and Arroyo were not for population control. But the results were the same. Fertility rates and population growth declined regardless of differences in policy among the past administrations. (Tables 1 and 2). What is the issue on population?
Table 1 Philippines total fertility (children per woman), All variants 1950-2010
Period Total fertility 7.42 7.27 6.98 6.54 5.98 5.46 1950-1995 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980

Table 1 Philippines total fertility (children per woman), All variants 1950-2010
Period 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 Total fertility 4.92 4.53 4.14 3.90 3.70 3.27

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index. htm

Table 2 Average population growth rate Philippines

Period 1960-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010e
Source: National Statistics Office (NSO), 2008

Grown rate (in percent) 3.01 2.78 2.71 2.35 2.32 2.36 2.05 1.95

2 0 1 1

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2. Is there a correlation that countries with fewer (more) people have better (worse) average productivity per person (see Table 3)?
Table 3 Comparative Asian countries
Country singapore Japan Korea philippines vietnam cambodia Myanmar Population per sq. km. (2010) 7,447 335 484 311 265 78 71 GDP per person ($) (2010) 43,117 42,820 20,591 2,007 1,174 814 702

The logical hypothesis is the more people the lower average GRDP per person. Its like eating pizza with 12 slices. The more people the less pizza. But in many regions, it appears that the more people, the more pizza is available. Metro Manila is way ahead with 18,650 persons per square kilometer but at the same time it also has the highest average GRDP per person of $4,838. But since 22.5% in Metro Manila are squatters or living like squatters, obviously the GRDP pie is not distributed equitably.
Table 5 Population and productivity
Region MetroManila calaBarZon centralluzon centralvisayas ilocos Westernvisayas Bicol davaoregion northernMindanao Zamboangapeninsula soccKsarGen easternvisayas arMM cagayanvalley caraGa MiMaropa cordillera philippines Persons/sq. km. 2007 18,650 707 451 403 349 332 282 204 194 189 170 168 129 108 107 86 78 260 Average GRDP per person (US$) 2007 4,838 1,455 1,129 1,513 824 1,330 678 1,543 1,651 1,000 1,259 728 365 795 866 1,077 1,852 1,624

Sources: Population per sq. km: United Nations Data, 2010 GDP Per person: International Monetary Fund, 2010

The Philippines has fewer people than Singapore, Japan, and Korea and but the latter countries are 10.3 to 21.5 times more productive than the Philippines. Conversely, there are countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar with fewer people but also less productive than the Philippines. Other economies with more people than the Philippines but are more productive include: Netherlands, Hongkong, Taiwan, and Puerto Rico. There are other examples, of course, that are conversely true. The conclusion is that there is no significant correlation that countries with fewer (more) people have better (worse) productivity per person. 3. Can the same conclusion in item two be applied to the Philippine regions? Lets use Western Visayas as an example (Table 4). It has a smaller population than the regions of Metro Manila, Calabarzon, and Central Visayas but the latter three regions have a higher Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per person. On the other hand, Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and ARMM, which have fewer people than Western Visayas, has lower average GRDP per person.
Table 4 Comparable Philippine regions
Region MetroManila calaBarZon centralvisayas Westernvisayas Bicol arMM easternvisayas Persons/sq. km. 2007 18,650 707 403 332 282 168 129 Average GRDP per person (US$) 2007 4,838 1,455 1,513 1,330 678 728 365

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB): Persons/sq. km. 2007 Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP): Average GRDP per person (Using 46.1 Peso $ rate for 2007)

The Gini coefficient measures the income distribution among families in a country. A coefficient of zero (0) means perfect distribution (every family has the same family income); one (1) means only one family holds the total income. Compared to other countries, the Philippines has a high Gini coefficient. Its Gini coefficient hardly improved from the Marcos administration to date.
Table 6 Gini coefficient selected countries
Country Brazil philippines Malaysia vietnam russia india italy unitedKingdom spain laos Korea Germany Japan
Source: United Nations, 2007

Gini coefficient (2007) 0.550 0.440 0.379 0.378 0.375 0.368 0.360 0.360 0.347 0.326 0.316 0.283 0.240

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB): Persons/sq. km. 2007 Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP): Average GRDP per person (Using 46.1 Peso $ rate for 2007)

4. Measuring income distribution using the Gini Coefficient Table 5 shows persons per square kilometer compared to average GRDP per person in the 17 Philippine regions.

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Table 7 Gini Coefficient Philippines

Marcos1985 cory1991 ramos1997 erap2000 GMa2006 GMa2009
Source: National Statistics Office (NSO), Feb. 2011

0.4466 0.4680 0.4881 0.4822 0.4580 0.4484

Table 8 Population density and average family income 77 Provinces, Philippines

Group A - Low population density ranking Population density (2000) 22 44 50 50 54 55 56 57 61 64 65 65 75 78 81 89 92 101 102 104 Population density (2000) 106 106 107 112 113 113 114 124 127 136 144 148 156 158 161 170 172 173 186 Population density (2000) 190 196 198 200 202 207 210 217 224 228 229 234 236 237 242 244 248 252 262 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Province apayao palawan abra Maguindanao Kalinga aurora agusandelsur lanaodelsur ifugao Quirino Mountainprovince occidentalMindoro Batanes davaooriental easternsamar tawi-tawi nuevavizcaya Bukidnon surigaodelsur isabela Average family income (2000) 92,907 106,737 111,185 76,438 111,790 110,544 67,104 83,413 85,245 93,683 98,369 100,607 153,415 94,328 71,527 85,240 126,295 106,375 88,556 113,405 Average family income (2000) 78,409 82,098 96,386 75,756 87,107 67,497 73,294 80,261 72,761 80,114 105,645 140,565 74,813 123,677 105,971 61,611 73,396 94,917 104,915 Average family income (2000) 77,598 69,880 94,960 85,623 139,918 79,770 90,459 78,758 125,798 84,842 119,462 101,125 77,291 80,829 79,119 93,251 99,568 99,313 76,838 Rank 42 24 20 66 19 21 76 54 50 40 35 32 6 39 73 51 11 25 45 18

It appears that in addressing poverty, income distribution and not population is the issue. 5. Is population the cause of the economic crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 and the Sub-prime and Market Crash in 2008? Surveys conducted by the author with urban and rural respondents show the following: Economic crises are caused by wrong government and private sector policies, corrupt or inefficient government, poor corporate governance, materialism, greed, deception or in general, lack or absence of economic and business competence and moral values. What risks does a country or an economy face? Risks can be divided into three groups: 1. Economic, Business, Financial. Under this category, are sub risk categories: Strategy, I.T., Market, Operations, Credit 2. Natural: Typhoon, Earthquakes, El Nino, La Nina, Tsunami 3. Man-Made: Disaster unpreparedness, bad government and corporate governance, air pollution, sea pollution, lack or absence of aviation standards, maritime-overloading, unqualified officers and seamen, jurassic ships, mining worst practices, land (ab)use, terrorism, murder, prostitution, kidnapping, smuggling, adultery, justice delayed or denied There is no issue about population. What is the issue on population? 6. Philippine Provinces: Population and Family Income In general, the 77 Philippine provinces are endowed with natural resources and good people. Does a low density population result in a higher average family income? It sounds logical that with fewer people there are more resources and income to share. The 77 provinces were ranked from the lowest (No. 1) up to highest (No. 77) in number of people per square kilometer (see Table 8). Table 8 also shows the ranking of these provinces in average family income (No. 1 to 77). Logically, the provinces with low population densities will have high average family income and vice versa. The 77 provinces were divided into four groups according to population density.

Group B - Low to moderate population density ranking Rank 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Province samar(Westernsamar) northcotabato cagayan sultanKudarat Zamboangadelnorte Basilan sarangani surigaodelnorte agusandelnorte northernsamar catanduanes ilocosnorte lanaodelnorte Zambales orientalMindoro Masbate romblon antique Quezon Rank 62 55 36 67 48 75 71 57 72 58 28 8 68 13 26 77 70 38 29

Group C- Moderate to high population density ranking Rank 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 Province sulu Zamboangadelsur camarinesnorte southernleyte Benguet davaodelsur negrosoriental davaodelnorte southcotabato Marinduque ilocossur Guimaras Bohol Misamisoccidental siquijor leyte aklan capiz Biliran Rank 63 74 37 49 9 59 43 61 12 52 15 31 64 56 60 41 33 34 65

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Table 8 Population density and average family income 77 Provinces, Philippines (continued)
Group D - High population density ranking Population density (2000) 283 285 289 307 312 316 387 391 425 431 439 447 591 611 805 887 1,078 1,331 1,432 Rank 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 Province camarinessur Misamisoriental nuevaecija sorsogon camiguin negrosoccidental iloilo tarlac albay Bataan launion pangasinan cebu Batangas Bulacan pampanga laguna cavite rizal Average family income (2000) 102,349 89,640 113,598 87,434 87,442 73,923 110,114 105,921 110,057 183,976 123,379 115,952 83,725 138,442 183,495 151,756 177,660 180,806 182,621 Rank 30 44 17 47 46 69 22 27 23 1 14 16 53 10 2 7 5 4 3

Table 10 Population density and average family income by Highly Urbanized City
lowesttoHighest population density 423 776 947 1,026 1,142 1,239 1,298 1,881 2,562 2,749 4,378 5,161 5,800 6,533 8,122 10,056 10,328 10,711 11,315 11,392 11,744 13,080 14,481 14,878 19,389 21,104 22,199 25,533 38,851 41,282 88,617 rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 city iligancity Butuancity davaocity Gen.santoscity cotabatocity cagayandeorocity Zamboangacity olongapocity cebucity Bacolodcity angelescity Baguiocity Marawicity iloilocity Muntinlupa Marikina valenzuela Mandaluyong sanJuan cityoflaspias cityofparaaque Quezoncity Malabon cityofMakati paterosandtaguig caloocancity Mandauecity pasaycity cityofpasig cityofManila navotas averagefamily income 143,537 111,349 155,937 164,900 138,805 176,552 129,503 196,938 153,307 177,501 181,559 233,701 103,739 283,604 238,038 234,820 210,850 275,361 359,702 384,341 354,639 393,082 208,391 534,058 230,719 231,876 159,140 245,897 317,105 256,152 156,526 rank 27 30 25 22 28 21 29 18 26 20 19 13 31 7 11 12 16 8 4 3 5 2 17 1 15 14 23 10 6 9 24

Source: The Philippine Countryside in Figures, 2007 edition, NSCB

In Group A consisting of 20 provinces with the lowest population density, 16 provinces had also low average family income. For example Agusan del Sur and Eastern Samar are number 7 and 15 with the fewest people but they are also lowest in family income, ranking 76th and 73rd, respectively. Fewer people but also less average income. In Group B, 13 out of 19 provinces with low to moderate population density were also worse off in their family income. Group C with 19 provinces showing moderate to high population density showed the following profile. Four provinces with relatively higher population density had relatively lower average family income. Ten provinces with relatively higher population had relatively higher family income. Group D consisting of provinces (19) with the highest population density had the most interesting results. Eighteen of the 19 provinces had also very high average family income. The summary table (Table 9) was arrived at using limit ratios.
Table 9 Summary table, people and average family income Philippine provinces
High average family income fewpeople (GroupsaandB) Manypeople (Groupscandd) 2 25 Low average family income 29 4 Proportionate income 8 9

Source: NSO, FIES 2000

Table 11 Summary table People and average family income, Philippine cities
Highaverage familyincome fewpeople Manypeople 12 lowaverage familyincome 12 proportionate income 1 6

The conclusion is the same for both provinces and cities. 8. Aging Asian Population In the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Summit in Hanoi in October 2010, the following information and analysis was presented: 1
Table 12 Aging population in Asia
Country Japan HongKong taiwan singapore southKorea Aging/Income classification agingforaprolongedtimeasanation Highincomeclassification/ agingrapidly Nations wealth/ Growth Wealthy firstWorldcountries

The data seem to point out that the fewer the people, the lower the average family income and vice-versa. 7. Philippine Cities: Population and Family Income

The author is the Philippine representative to the 16-nation governing Board of ERIA.
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Table 12 Aging population in Asia (continued)

Country china indonesia Malaysia thailand india vietnam Aging/Income classification Middleincomeclassification/ agingrapidly Middleincomeclassification/ agingrapidly agingslowlyasanation (trendmanageableforreversal) Nations wealth/ Growth emergingnation HighGdpgrowth Moderategrowth

Table 13 Philippines Total fertility (children per woman), All variants 2010-2100
2040-2045 2045-2050 2050-2055 2055-2060 2.22 2.14 2.06 2.00 1.95 1.91 1.88 1.86 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 2.72 2.64 2.56 2.50 2.45 2.41 2.38 2.36 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 1.72 1.64 1.56 1.50 1.45 1.41 1.38 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35

developingrapidly

2060-2065 2065-2070 2070-2075

Source: Dr. Andrew Walder, Stanford University, ERIA Summit, Hanoi, October 26, 2010

The developed countries or economies in AsiaHong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwanare aging either as a nation or within an income classification. Those with high or moderate GDP growth are in the same dilemmChina, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. The Philippines continues to exhibit positive growth though the population growth has broken the 2% downward barrier (Figure 1). Within two generations, the Philippines will experience zero population growth rate and thereafter join Asias Aging Club. Fertility rates by then will be 2.1 which will merely maintain a fixed number of people (Table 13).
figure 1 Population growth rate, Philippines
3.3

2075-2080 2080-2085 2085-2090 2090-2095 2095-2100

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/ wpp/index.htm

3.0 2.89 2.8

3.01

2.78

2.71

2.5 2.35 2.36 2.32

2.3 2.07

2.0

2.05
1.95

P e rio d

period Source: NSO, results from the 2007 Census of Population. Updated 2008

Table 13 Philippines Total fertility (children per woman), All variants 2010-2100
Period 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 Medium variant 3.05 2.86 2.70 2.56 2.43 2.32 High variant 3.30 3.26 3.20 3.06 2.93 2.82 Low variant 2.80 2.46 2.20 2.06 1.93 1.82

The growth rate will decelerate faster owing to the following conditions which were not as prevalent in previous decades. 1. Single people marry late. 2. Newlywed couples desire only two (2) children. In order to maintan zero population growth, the number of children is 2.1. 3. There are an increasing number of gays. 4. Another significant factor is migration. More than a million Filipinos find employment outside the country every year. Half of these are returnees (renewals) and the other half are new hires. A significant number do not return home. They become citizens of another country. Some countries are open to family migration and they prefer Filipinos. 5. Filipinos are among the top nationalities that marry foreigners and after marrying, a significant number of these couples decide to reside abroad. 6. The Philippines is among the top countries, if not the top, which has young men and women with supernatural vocations. Part of their commitment is to offer their celibacy to God. Longevity may help in preventing population figures from falling too low.Items one to three are worldwide phenomenons. Four to six are uniquely Filipino.

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