Money Market Commentary, 30 May 2012: Investors are worried about Greek exit from European Monetary Union

(currency:Euro) and about Chinese economy hard landing. The Euro/USD has a horrible month. It open in 1.32 then traded in narrow range at the beginning May and it then tumbled down and closed at 1.24 on 31st May. The fragile Euro back to depths not seen since August 2010. The euro zone crisis has escalated since inconclusive Greek election on May 6 and concern about fragile Spanish banking sector. The stock index futures dropped indicated worsening fears about spiraling of euro zone's debt crisis and the region's fiscal woes sent the euro to its lowest level in 23 months against the dollar. The problem is: The various economies within the Euro-zone (17 countries) are so different that a common application of monetary policy could create problems. Structurally, the European Union has some very real risk. So far, the only Germany and Finland, 2 of 17 countries whose growth save the euro-zone from recession. Moreover, Spain getting closer to bailout too. Apparently, EURO/USD likely falling faster towards 1.20 in June2012. Besides, there's continued economic slowdown in China, so, the markets of Euro/other currencies will soon be in the darkness. IDR: What happened was an IDR trade driven by global investors reaction to external factors which show more uncertainties and bigger risk. Foreigner traded stocks at local bourse and dumped a net Rp.6.6 trillion in shares in May, pressuring the Jakarta Composite Index downward by 6.29 percent (fell to 3900 from 4234.73 52week high). Nevertheless, Bank of Indonesia will start issuing foreign exchange term deposits expecting to add a supply of US dollars into the market and in turn stabilize the rupiah :) As the same as in Indonesia, Asian stock fell and Asian currencies drop to five months low as Greece May Leave Euro. USD/IDR (middle rate) , May 2012: Open:9185, low 9185, high:9640 , close:9565. Other sentiment: - Japanese firm are hiking dividends. - Singapore industrial production fell in May. - Oil price dropping to roughly USD 90 per barrel in May from the years highest settlement of USD 110 in February.

Based on currency graphs (historical trend), here is the middle rate predictions for June 2012: JPY/IDR: 118 - 125

SGD/IDR: 7350 - 7550 CHF/IDR: 9.700 - 9.900

USD/IDR: volatile, 9300 - 9850 (there is no breaking support line on uptrend channel, this signifies USD strengthening but double top has formed at the end of May which signifies the weakening of USD. So, that's further UNCERTAINTY. The next trend will be mostly influenced by fundamental factors). EURO/IDR: 11.500 - 11.900 (the Euro trend has breaken out support line on sideway trend channel, so the Euro will weaken more in June). MYR/IDR: 2900 - 3050 THB/IDR: 295 - 300 USD/JPY: 76 - 82

EUR/USD: 1.16 - 1.26 EUR/JPY: 90 - 100