Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
www.igc.int
MERCADO DE CEREALES
GMR No. 422
24 de mayo de 2012
ESTIMACIONES MUNDIALES
m. de toneladas
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
est
12/13
previsin
26.04
24.05
TRIGO
Produccin
Comercio
Consumo
Existencias finales
Cambio interanual
685
679
653
695
676
671
137
128
126
143
135
136
645
652
657
688
680
681
173
199
195
202
206
191
+41
+26
-4
+7
69
78
72
71
70
62
800
820
829
866
900
913
84
86
93
94
100
102
784
821
844
870
893
902
150
149
133
129
135
141
+16
-1
-16
-4
1800
1753
1841
1869
240
243
264
263
265
1769
1786
1841
1865
1871
383
373
139
135
Principales exportadoresa)
-11
MAIZ
Produccin
Comercio
Consumo
Existencias finales
Cambio interanual
CEREALES TOTALES*
1802
Produccin
250
Comercio
1731
Consumo
Existencias finales
374
i
i
Cambio
interanual
+71
Principales exportadoresa)
159
404
371
371
+30
-33
172
138
126
+12
1873
+2
290
m. de toneladas (base:molido)
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
est
11/12
previsin
280
26.04
24.05
462
462
270
ARROZ
31
35
33
33
437
447
459
458
81
92
95
95
99
100
Cambio interanual
+5
+11
+3
Principales exportadores b)
19
27
28
29
250
240
+5
34
34
23 May
29
435
03 May
29
427
260
13 Apr
447
26 Mar
440
06 Mar
447
15 Feb
431
26 Jan
Produccin
Comercio
Consumo
Existencias finales
PRECIOS DE EXPORTACION
US$ / ton, fob
23-May
460
03-May
480
460
13-Apr
500
480
26-Mar
520
500
06-Mar
23-May
03-May
13-Apr
26-Mar
06-Mar
15-Feb
23-May
03-May
13-Apr
26-Mar
06-Mar
15-Feb
26-Jan
26-Jan
220
220
540
520
US Soyabeans
26-Jan
240
240
560
540
23-May
260
260
580
560
03-May
280
280
600
580
13-Apr
300
620
600
26-Mar
300
620
06-Mar
320
US SRW
SOYABEANS
640
Thai 100%
15-Feb
EU (France)
320
RICE
640
US Corn
15-Feb
MAIZE
340
US HRW
26-Jan
WHEAT
340
ARROZ
Se prev que la produccin mundial de arroz en
2011/12 aumente en alrededor de 15 m. de
toneladas para situarse en un mximo histrico de
462 m., apoyada por cosechas ms abundantes en
Asia. Debido a la mayor oferta, se espera que el
consumo mundial tambin se eleve a una cifra
rcord de 458 m. de toneladas (447 m.), mientras
que las existencias mundiales al cierre de 2011/12
alcanzarn su nivel ms elevado en nueve aos, de
99,6 m. de toneladas. Se espera que el comercio
mundial en 2012 disminuya en un 6% a 33,1 m. de
toneladas, debido al descenso de los envos a
mercados del Lejano Oriente asitico.
OLEAGINOSAS
La produccin mundial de soja en 2011/12 se estima
en 236,9 m. de toneladas: el descenso del 11%
respecto a la campaa pasada refleja una reduccin
notable de las cosechas en todos los productores
clave. Pese a un nuevo aumento de los envos a
China, se prev que el comercio mundial disminuya
por segundo ao consecutivo, para situarse en
88,9m. de toneladas (91,2 m.). Se espera que,
gracias a la fuerte demanda por parte de Asia y la
UE, el comercio mundial de harina de soja se
incremente de nuevo, a 57,4 m. de toneladas
(56,9m.)
2012
Total
supply
Food
Use
Industrial Feed
Total a)
Exports Closing
stocks
TOTAL GRAINS
Argentina **
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Australia **
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
2.0
5.0
3.2
46.9
42.2
46.8
(4.6)
(47.2)
8.1
11.2
11.5
40.3
43.2
39.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
48.9
47.2
50.0
4.1
4.2
4.2
(51.9)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(12.0)
48.5
54.5
50.5
2.3
2.5
2.5
1.9
2.3
2.8
8.5
8.2
8.5
15.4
15.5
16.4
28.5
28.4
30.3
5.0
3.2
3.4
(2.5)
(8.6)
(16.2)
(31.4)
(4.3)
0.9
1.0
1.0
7.6
9.4
9.2
12.1
14.1
14.0
25.1
29.0
27.0
11.2
11.5
9.5
(9.1)
(13.9)
(26.5)
(10.6)
5.7
5.8
6.1
17.6
17.9
18.0
27.7
28.5
28.8
21.9
21.6
22.4
10.7
9.0
9.5
(6.0)
(18.1)
(28.9)
(21.9)
(10.0)
(51.0)
Canada
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
13.5
10.7
9.0
60.3
59.1
60.7
45.4
47.1
51.0
1.5
1.3
0.8
3.0
3.3
3.3
(50.5)
(1.3)
47.0
31.8
28.3
275.9
284.4
278.7
13.2
13.7
13.8
336.0
329.9
320.8
62.6
62.8
62.6
31.8
31.7
33.7
161.7
164.5
158.0
271.4
273.9
269.6
32.8
27.7
23.7
31.8
28.3
27.5
(28.1)
(279.7)
(12.5)
(320.3)
(63.1)
(33.4)
(157.4)
(269.7)
(24.6)
(26.1)
4.3
2.1
7.9
11.7
26.1
17.9
0.1
0.0
0.1
16.0
28.2
25.9
2.2
2.5
2.6
0.2
0.2
0.3
3.1
4.4
4.9
8.2
10.5
11.1
5.8
9.8
9.4
2.1
7.9
5.4
(8.2)
(18.8)
(27.0)
(2.5)
(0.2)
18.5
15.6
12.0
58.3
89.7
86.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
77.3
105.7
98.8
18.3
18.6
18.7
2.6
2.9
2.9
26.9
34.8
33.2
57.3
67.2
65.3
4.3
26.5
21.2
15.6
12.0
12.3
(13.3)
(91.4)
(0.3)
(105.0)
(18.9)
(3.0)
(35.9)
(68.7)
(22.8)
(13.5)
4.2
5.5
10.0
38.5
55.8
50.5
0.1
0.2
0.1
42.7
61.5
60.6
7.0
7.3
7.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
13.1
16.6
16.7
25.1
29.9
30.2
12.1
21.6
21.8
5.5
10.0
8.6
(10.7)
(50.6)
(61.4)
(7.3)
(16.8)
(30.1)
(22.3)
(9.0)
74.7
55.7
44.5
390.6
378.3
428.6
470.8
440.5
479.2
30.9
31.1
31.3
163.7
163.1
163.6
131.6
125.5
140.2
328.9
322.7
338.0
86.2
73.3
82.2
55.7
44.5
59.0
(44.6)
(422.8)
(473.5)
(31.6)
(162.6)
(138.4)
(335.6)
(79.1)
(58.9)
172.1
137.6
126.4
907.7
966.9
998.8
20.9
22.0
21.4
1,100.6
1,126.5
1,146.6
130.4
132.2
132.3
207.7
207.8
211.2
370.0
381.3
388.8
746.2
762.3
773.4
216.8
237.9
237.9
137.6
126.4
135.2
(130.5)
(1000.0)
(20.4)
(1150.8)
(133.3)
(209.6)
(389.2)
(773.9)
105.7
112.1
115.6
299.7
318.0
313.3
4.1
10.0
10.9
409.6
440.1
439.9
95.9
95.6
95.1
53.1
58.7
61.9
131.2
150.4
153.5
296.6
323.1
328.1
(119.3)
(310.3)
(10.6)
(440.3)
(95.4)
(60.9)
(149.8)
(323.7)
19.3
17.8
22.2
124.2
128.7
131.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
143.7
146.4
153.6
98.5
97.7
100.3
3.5
3.8
4.0
10.5
10.5
10.8
122.1
120.6
125.1
3.8
3.6
4.6
17.8
22.2
23.9
(22.6)
(130.8)
(153.5)
(100.1)
(124.9)
(4.1)
(24.5)
403.9
371.1
371.2
1,752.8
1,841.1
1,873.2
242.7
264.2
264.9
2,156.6
2,212.2
2,244.4
622.5
627.7
634.4
297.2
304.2
311.6
747.4
785.9
801.3
1,785.6
1,841.0
1,871.1
242.7
264.2
264.9
371.1
371.2
373.4
(379.0)
(1868.9)
(262.6)
(2247.9)
(635.0)
(308.9)
(795.6)
(1865.3)
(262.6)
(382.6)
EU-27
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Kazakhstan
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
(10.9)
(6.8)
Russia
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Ukraine
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
USA
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
5.6
6.4
6.2
(139.0)
China
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
0.9
1.4
1.6
112.1
115.6
110.2
(115.0)
India
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
WORLD TOTAL
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
c)
c)
IMPORTS
09/10
10/11
11/12
(est.)
Million tons
12/13 (f'cast)
26.04.12
EXPORTS
15.4
13.3
2.0
15.2
12.9
2.2
15.6
13.2
2.3
CIS
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Russia
Uzbekistan
Others
5.8
1.1
0.8
0.1
1.7
2.0
6.3
1.4
0.7
0.4
1.7
2.1
7.0
1.6
0.7
0.3
2.0
2.4
7.2
1.5
0.8
0.4
2.0
2.5
N & C AMERICA
Canada
Cuba
Dominican Rep.
Mexico
USA
Others
29.2
2.5
1.5
1.5
14.2
4.4
5.2
27.7
1.1
1.5
1.6
13.4
4.5
5.5
32.9
1.3
1.6
1.5
17.4
5.2
5.9
30.4
1.0
1.7
1.6
15.2
5.1
5.9
SOUTH AMERICA
23.9
23.5
25.2
25.4
WORLD TOTAL
8.0
1.9
5.2
3.5
3.6
1.8
7.3
1.8
5.5
3.7
2.8
2.4
8.4
2.2
5.2
3.4
3.7
2.3
8.2
2.0
5.5
3.4
3.5
2.8
42.5
35.1
42.8
41.0
7.6
3.9
3.1
1.7
10.8
4.0
2.1
3.1
6.2
4.2
3.5
3.0
1.8
9.1
4.0
1.4
3.1
4.9
7.5
3.7
3.4
2.0
12.1
4.0
1.8
3.0
5.4
5.4
3.9
3.5
1.8
11.9
4.6
1.6
3.0
5.3
75.5
67.6
80.5
72.9
81.4
74.7
85.9
78.1
China
Indonesia
Japan
Korea (S)
Malaysia
Philippines
Taipei, Chinese
Thailand
Vietnam
Others
4.0
6.5
25.4
12.2
3.8
3.1
5.8
1.8
3.4
1.6
4.8
9.6
24.7
12.5
4.6
3.3
5.8
2.3
3.7
1.6
9.0
8.0
23.6
12.0
4.1
4.2
5.9
2.4
3.8
1.8
10.9
8.2
24.9
12.6
4.7
3.4
5.9
2.3
3.7
1.5
8.0
7.6
6.7
7.7
3.9
0.3
0.2
1.2
2.3
4.1
0.2
0.1
1.1
2.1
3.6
0.0
0.1
1.1
1.9
3.8
0.1
0.3
1.4
2.4
AFRICA
North Africa
52.4
33.0
53.0
37.0
57.9
37.4
58.1
39.6
Algeria
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
7.5
15.6
4.4
2.3
9.1
16.3
6.1
3.2
9.8
16.7
5.8
2.8
9.0
17.2
8.0
3.0
Sub-Sahara
19.4
16.0
20.5
18.6
Ethiopia
Kenya
Nigeria
Others
1.1
2.2
4.0
12.1
0.3
0.7
4.1
10.9
1.6
1.9
4.2
12.8
0.8
1.7
4.3
11.8
OCEANIA
0.8
0.9
1.2
0.9
240.0
242.7
264.2
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
UAE
Yemen
Others
South Asia
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Others
WORLD TOTAL b)
262.6
264.9
10/11
(est.)
9.8
7.7
2.2
09/10
24.05.12
EUROPE
EU-27
Others
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Venezuela
Others
08/09
Million tons
11/12 (f'cast)
26.04.12
24.05.12
Argentina
Australia
Canada
EU-27
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
USA
20.0
18.0
21.4
23.6
8.4
22.0
21.0
79.2
26.1
23.2
21.1
28.1
5.8
4.3
12.2
87.6
30.2
28.1
21.3
22.7
9.8
26.5
19.6
73.2
28.2
26.3
21.4
19.3
9.4
21.2
21.8
80.7
SUB-TOTAL
213.5
208.5
231.4
228.3
Brazil
China
India
South Africa
Turkey
Others
7.6
0.6
2.0
1.8
5.1
9.3
14.0
0.6
3.4
2.7
2.4
11.1
10.6
1.0
3.6
2.5
3.8
11.3
11.8
1.2
5.1
2.0
3.9
12.6
240.0
242.7
264.2
262.6
264.9
127.7
86.4
16.9
6.3
2.1
0.3
0.3
125.8
93.2
14.9
6.3
1.9
0.4
0.2
143.1
94.2
19.0
4.7
2.4
0.3
0.5
135.2
99.9
18.5
135.7
101.7
18.2
6.1
2.3
0.3
0.5
All wheat
Maize (corn)
Barley
Sorghum
Oats
Rye
Others
Opening
Production
Imports
stocks
India (Oct/Sep)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
18.7
19.0
20.1
89.1
96.0
103.4
(20.2)
Pakistan (Nov/Oct)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
Total
Total
supply
use a)
0.0
0.0
0.0
107.8
114.9
123.5
(0.0)
(123.6)
86.8
91.9
95.4
0.9
0.9
0.5
6.8
4.8
7.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
7.7
5.8
7.5
2.8
2.1
3.0
(0.5)
(7.2)
(0.0)
(7.7)
(3.1)
4.4
5.9
5.5
20.3
20.3
20.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
24.9
26.5
25.9
10.1
10.4
10.7
(5.5)
(19.6)
1.0
1.1
1.5
7.1
7.6
5.9
Exports
Closing
stocks
2.0
2.9
6.8
19.0
20.1
21.4
(6.7)
(21.6)
4.1
3.3
3.8
0.9
0.5
0.8
(0.8)
Thailand (Jan/Dec)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
8.9
10.6
6.7
(25.4)
5.9
5.5
8.6
(8.1)
USA (Aug/July)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
0.6
0.6
0.7
8.7
9.4
8.2
(0.7)
(8.1)
0.4
0.5
0.5
27.2
27.8
27.9
4.0
4.4
3.9
3.5
3.5
3.1
1.1
1.5
1.2
(2.9)
(1.3)
19.1
19.4
19.6
6.7
7.1
6.4
1.3
1.4
1.9
(28.0)
(19.5)
(6.7)
(1.9)
Vietnam (Jan/Dec)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
1.8
1.3
1.4
25.0
25.9
26.0
(26.1)
148.3
154.6
162.5
1.3
1.5
1.6
176.3
184.3
193.0
122.8
128.0
132.4
25.2
27.4
26.7
28.2
28.9
33.9
(29.1)
(162.2)
(1.5)
(192.8)
(132.5)
(26.6)
(33.7)
0.6
0.5
1.1
31.0
31.7
34.1
0.4
1.5
0.7
32.0
33.6
35.9
31.5
32.5
34.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.1
1.4
China (Jan/Dec)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
36.8
39.4
41.7
136.6
137.0
140.5
0.4
0.5
1.0
173.7
177.0
183.2
133.7
134.8
138.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
39.4
41.7
44.0
Indonesia (Jan/Dec)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
5.9
5.6
5.2
36.4
35.5
36.3
0.9
2.8
1.2
43.2
43.8
42.6
37.6
38.7
39.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
5.2
3.4
(1.0)
(42.5)
(39.1)
2.2
1.2
1.4
16.6
15.1
13.9
13.2
13.2
12.8
(14.3)
(13.1)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
Bangladesh (July/June)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
(3.4)
Philippines (July/June)
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
4.4
3.4
1.9
9.9
10.5
10.6
(10.9)
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.4
1.9
1.1
(1.2)
WORLD TOTAL
2009/10
2010/11 est.
2011/12 f'cast
91.7
95.0
95.5
439.9
447.2
461.9
31.4
35.1
33.1
531.5
542.2
557.4
436.6
446.7
457.8
31.4
35.1
33.1
95.0
95.5
99.6
95.5
462.0
32.8
557.5
458.5
32.8
99.0
* IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.
a) Including seed and waste.
(January/December)
(October/September)
Million tons (milled basis)
IMPORTS
EUROPE
EU-27
2012 (f'cast)
2009
2010
2011
(est.)
26.04.12
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.3
CIS
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
2.9
0.6
0.6
1.7
3.0
0.6
0.5
1.9
3.5
0.8
0.6
2.1
3.4
0.7
0.7
2.0
3.5 <
0.8 <
0.7
2.0
SOUTH AMERICA
1.1
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.4 <
6.2
1.3
1.2
1.1
2.7
7.0
1.2
1.2
1.1
3.5
7.0
1.5
1.2
1.2
3.1
6.8
1.5
1.3
1.3
2.7
7.0
1.4
1.2
1.3
3.1
7.4
0.0
0.3
1.9
5.3
9.2
0.4
0.9
2.3
5.6
10.9
1.5
2.8
1.2
5.5
8.9
0.7
1.0
1.4
5.8
9.0 <
0.7
1.2 <
1.4
5.8
<
<
<
<
AFRICA
10.7
9.8
10.7
10.8
10.9 <
Sub-Sahara
10.4
9.5
10.3
10.2
10.2
1.2
2.1
1.0
6.2
1.0
2.1
0.8
5.6
1.1
2.5
0.8
5.8
1.1
2.3
0.9
5.9
1.1
2.4 <
0.9
5.9
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
WORLD TOTAL c)
29.2
31.4
35.1
32.8
33.1 <
EXPORTS
2009
2010
2011
OCEANIA
India
Pakistan
Thailand
USA
Vietnam
Others
2.1
3.2
8.6
2.9
6.0
6.3
2.1
4.2
8.9
3.9
6.7
5.6
2012 (f'cast)
(est.)
26.04.12
4.2
3.4
10.6
3.2
7.1
6.6
6.4
3.7
6.7
3.1
6.7
6.3
08/09
09/10
10/11
(est.)
EUROPE
EU-27
13.6
12.9
13.0
12.4
12.9
12.4
11.5
11.0
11.5
11.0
N & C AMERICA
Mexico
Others
4.3
3.3
1.1
4.8
3.6
1.2
4.9
3.6
1.3
4.2
3.3
1.0
4.2
3.3
1.0
SOUTH AMERICA
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.8
3.0
0.8
1.0
1.3
4.1
0.8
1.9
1.4
3.2
0.7
1.1
1.5
2.7
0.4
1.1
1.2
2.7
0.4
1.1
1.2
51.4
40.4
2.2
1.5
3.5
1.6
2.1
65.3
53.9
2.4
1.9
3.4
1.5
2.3
64.7
52.4
2.4
2.1
3.0
1.8
2.9
66.9
55.2
2.4
1.9
2.7
1.6
3.2
67.2 <
55.5 <
2.4
1.9
2.7
1.6
3.2
2.2
1.6
0.6
2.2
1.6
0.5
2.1
1.7
0.5
1.9
1.5
0.4
1.9
1.5
0.4
77.3
93.3
91.2
88.6
EXPORTS
08/09
09/10
10/11
(est.)
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
USA
Others
5.6
30.0
2.3
35.1
4.3
13.0
28.6
4.9
41.7
5.1
9.2
30.0
5.7
40.3
6.1
24.05.12
N & C AMERICA
Mexico
United States
Others
Cte d'Ivoire
Nigeria
South Africa
Others
million tons
IMPORTS
11/12 (f'cast)
26.04.12 24.05.12
88.9 <
m. tons
11/12 (f'cast)
26.04.12 24.05.12
8.3
35.7
3.2
35.4
6.0
8.2 <
35.7
3.2
35.8 <
6.0
24.05.12
6.5 <
3.8 <
6.7
3.3 <
6.4 <
6.5 <
2012