Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam-U.S. Strategic Dialogue: What Purpose? Carlyle A. Thayer May 24, 2012

We would like your preview of Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's trip to Vietnam. What would you say would be US objectives for engaging Vietnam in a strategic dialogue? Or is Hanoi still concerned about offending Beijing? Where are the fault lines in a US attempt to lure Vietnam into a closer relationship? ANSWER: In 2003 Vietnam and the United States agreed to exchange visits by Defense Ministers every three years. In 2003 Defense Minster General Pham Van Tra visited Washington. In 2006 Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Hanoi. In 2009 Defense Minster General Phung Quang Thanh visited Washington. Secretary of Defense Leon Panettas visit to Hanoi in June is part of the established pattern of visits. The timing may be explained by Secretary Panettas attendance at the annual ShangriLa Dialogue in Singapore. The October 2010 visit to Hanoi by the then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was not part of the agreement on visits by defense ministers. Secretary Gates went to Hanoi to attend the inaugural meeting of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus. The United States and Vietnam have been conducting a defense dialogue for eight years. The dialogue has evolved over time to involve senior officials. The first US-Vietnam annual defense dialogue took place in 2004. Four years later this was raised to a Political, Security and Defense dialogue involving officials from their respective foreign affairs and defense ministries. The US-Vietnam defense dialogue was upgraded in 2010 when the first Defense Policy Dialogue was held between military officials of Vietnams Ministry of National Defence and the US Department of Defense at deputy minister level. The United States conducts a strategic dialogue Vietnam as part of an official engagement policy. The United States hopes to institutionalize defence cooperation

2 across a number of areas and to habituate Vietnam into cooperating with the United States. In other words, to evolve the relationship from one off arrangements to regular activities that become a normal part of defense cooperation over time. For example, Vietnam agreed to conduct minor repairs on non-combatant US Navy ships. The most recent repairs were conducted in the commercial area of Cam Ranh Bay. Secretary Panetta is likely to prod the Vietnamese into making this arrangement more flexible. In September 2011 at the 2nd 2nd Defence Policy Dialogue, the US and Vietnam signed their first formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on defence cooperation. The MOU included five priority areas: the establishment of regular high-level dialogue between defence ministries; maritime security; search and rescue; studying and exchanging experiences on United Nations (UN) peacekeeping; and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Secretary Panettas visit will be aimed at securing agreement on how to advance each of these areas of cooperation. Additionally, Secretary Panetta will seek a Vietnamese commitment to implement the Statement of Intent on Military Medical Cooperation agreed to in August last year. The US proposes to transfer a medical research unit to Vietnam. This would be a big step for Vietnam which has so far resisted the presence of uniformed US personnel other than those in the Defense Attaches Office. Secretary Panetta will also seek to advance agreement on cooperation in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics, non-proliferation and maritime security. Vietnam is poised to make its first contribution to international peacekeeping under UN auspices. Secretary Panetta is likely to raise how the US can continue to assist this process. Recently Senators John McCain and Joe Liberman revealed that during their visit to Vietnam they were presented with a wish list of military equipment that Vietnam would like to procure. The Senators made it clear that there would be no progress until Vietnam improved its human rights situation. There have been no signs of improvement since their visit. Vietnam is internally divided about how to manage relations with China and the United States. There remains a core of party ideologues who still believe the US is promoting the plot of peaceful evolution to overturn Vietnams socialist regime. These ideological concerns have surfaced from time to time in remarks directed at the Peace Corps and American universities wishing to operate in Vietnam. The conservative maintain that Vietnam can manage its sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea without aligning with the Unites States. The conservative can point to an improvement in relations with China since the visit of party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong to Beijing in October last year. Trongs visit followed the dispatch of two special envoys in January and June. In October China and Vietnam reached agreement on Guidelines on Fundamental Principles to Resolve Maritime Disputes. Other members of the Vietnam Communist Party are committed the policy of proactively integrating with the world adopted by the eleventh party congress in 2011. This policy is designed to promote Vietnams multifaceted engagement with all the major powers including the United States. Defense cooperation is one aspect of

3 proactive integration. It should be noted that Vietnam and the United Kingdom have agreed to a strategic partnership. Secretary Panetta must be at pains to ensure that any form of stepped up defence cooperation is not construed by Vietnamese party conservatives as an attempt to enlist Vietnam into an anti-China containment policy. This is easier said than done despite repeated official US statements that it is seeking to engage China not contain it. Secretary Panetta will also face a dilemma over the human rights issue. He can downplay it, leaving it to the State Department. But Secretary Panetta cannot ignore US policy and the domestic concerns of American citizens and key members of Congress. On the other hand Secretary Panetta must be careful not to raise unrealistic expectations about the future trajectory of defense cooperation among Vietnamese officials who are promoting proactive integration. Finally, Secretary Panetta must be aware that party conservatives are only too willing to play on the human rights issue to impede the development of closer defense relations with the United States.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam-U.S. Strategic Dialogue: What Purpose?, Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing, May 15, 2012.

Xut bn RFI (http://www.viet.rfi.fr)

Mc ch chuyn thm Vit Nam ca b trng Quc phng M

ng ngy 2012-05-25 16:53 c Tm VIT NAM - M - QUC PHNG T ngy 03 n 05/06/2012, b trng Quc phng Hoa K Leon Panetta cng du Vit Nam. Sau y l nhn nh ca gio s Carl Thayer, chuyn gia v Vit Nam, thuc Hc vin Quc phng c, v chuyn i ny. Nm 2003, Vit Nam v Hoa K ng tin hnh trao i cc chuyn ving thm cp b trng Quc phng, ba nm mt ln. Nm 2003, b trng Quc phng, tng Phm Vn Tr thm Washington. Nm 2006, b trng Quc phng Donald Rumsfeld cng du H Ni. n nm 2009, b trng Quc phng, tng Phng Quang Thanh thm Washington. Chuyn cng du ti H Ni ca b trng Quc phng Leon Panetta vo thng Su, nm trong hng trao i cc cuc ving thm c tha thun. C th gii thch thi im chuyn i ln ny ca b trng Panetta l ng kt hp vi vic tham d i thoi thng nin Shangri La, c t chc ti Singapore. Chuyn i H Ni hi thng 10 nm 2010 ca cu b trng Quc phng Robert Gates khng nm trong tha thun trao i cc cuc ving thm cp b trng. B trng Gates ti H Ni d l khai mc Hi ngh b trng Quc phng ASEAN m rng. (ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus). Hoa K v Vit Nam tin hnh i thoi v quc phng trong 8 nm qua. Cng vi thi gian, cuc i thoi ny m rng, vi s tham gia ca cc quan chc cao cp. Cuc i thoi quc phng M-Vit thng nin u tin din ra vo nm 2004. Bn nm sau, cuc i thoi ny c nng ln thnh i thoi Chnh tr, An ninh v Quc phng, vi s tham gia ca cc quan chc cao cp trong lnh vc ngoi giao v quc phng hai nc. n nm 2010, i thoi quc phng M-Vit c nng cp khi cuc i thoi v Chnh sch Quc phng u tin c t chc gia cc s quan qun i cao cp ca b Quc phng Vit Nam v ca b Quc phng Hoa K cp th trng.

Hoa K tin hnh i thoi chin lc vi Vit Nam nh l mt phn trong chnh sch lin kt chnh thc ca M. Hoa K mong mun th ch ha quan h hp tc quc phng qua mt s lnh vc v cho Vit Nam lm quen vi vic hp tc vi M. Ni mt cch khc, bin i mt mi quan h khng nm trong cc tha thun, thnh cc hot ng thng xuyn v cho n tr thnh mt phn trong hp tc lu di v quc phng. V d, Vit Nam chp nhn thc hin cc sa cha nh i vi cc tu phi tc chin ca hi qun M. a s cc sa cha gn y c tin hnh trong khu vc dn s ca vnh Cam Ranh. B trng Panetta dng nh s thc gic Vit Nam nn linh hot hn khi p dng tha thun ny. Thng 09/2011, ti cuc i thoi v Chnh sch Quc phng ln th hai, Hoa K v Vit Nam k bin bn ghi nh chnh thc u tin ( Memorandum of Understanding MOU) v hp tc quc phng. Bin bn ny bao gm 5 lnh vc u tin : Thit lp i thoi cp cao u n gia hai b Quc phng, an ninh hng hi, tm kim v cu h, nghin cu v trao i kinh nghim v hot ng gn gi ha bnh ca Lin Hip Quc v tr gip nhn o v cu tr thm ha thin tai. Chuyn cng du ca b trng Panetta s c mc ch l thc y tha thun t c cc bc tin trong nhng lnh vc hp tc ny. Ngoi ra, b trng Panetta s tm kim mt s cam kt ca Vit Nam trong vic thc hin Tuyn b hp tc s khi v qun y, c k kt hi thng 08/2011. Hoa K ngh a sang Vit Nam mt n v nghin cu y t. y s l mt bc tin ln i vi Vit Nam bi v cho n nay, Vit Nam vn chng li s hin din ca cc nhn vin mc qun phc M, ngoi nhng ngi lm vic ti Phng Ty vin Qun s. B trng Panetta cng s tm cch thc y cc tha thun hp tc v tr gip nhn o v cu tr thm ha thin tai, chng khng b, chng bun lu ma ty, khng pht trin v kh ht nhn v an ninh hng hi. Vit Nam sn sng ng gp u tin vo vic gi gn ha bnh quc t trong khun kh Lin Hip Quc. Dng nh b trng Panetta s nu vn lm th no M c th tip tc h tr Vit Nam trong tin trnh ny. Gn y, cc Thng ngh s John McCain v Joe Liberman tit l l trong chuyn ving thm ca h, pha Vit Nam trnh by mt danh sch mong mun cc thit b qun s m Vit Nam mun c cung cp. Cc Thng ngh s ni r l vn ny s khng c tin trin cho n khi no Vit Nam ci thin tnh trng nhn quyn. Khng c nhng du hiu ci thin no k t sau chuyn cng du ca cc Thng ngh s M. Ni b Vit Nam b chia r trong vic lm th no x l quan h vi Trung Quc v Hoa K. Vn c mt nhm cc nhn vt nng v thc h trong ng cn cho rng Hoa K thc y m mu din bin ha bnh lt ch x hi ch ngha ca Vit Nam. Cc lo ngi v thc h ny thnh thong li xut hin thng qua nhng cnh bo nhm vo C quan hot ng v ha bnh Peace Corps v cc trng i hc M, mun hot ng ti Vit Nam. Phe bo th cho rng Vit Nam c th x l c cc tranh chp v ch quyn Bin ng m khng cn phi ng theo Hoa K. Phe bo th c th nu ra l quan h vi Trung Quc c ci thin k t sau chuyn cng du Bc Kinh ca tng b th ng Nguyn Ph Trng, hi thng 10 nm ngoi. Cuc ving thm ca ng Trng din ra sau khi Vit Nam c hai c phi vin sang Trung Quc hi thng Ging v thng Su. n thng 10, Trung

Quc v Vit Nam t c tha thun v cc Nguyn tc c bn ch o gii quyt vn trn bin. Cc thnh vin khc ca ng Cng sn Vit Nam th li tin hnh chnh sch ch ng hi nhp vi th gii, c thng qua ti i hi ng ln th 11 nm 2011. Chnh sch ny nhm thc y Vit Nam c quan h a dng vi tt c cc cng quc ln, trong c Hoa K. Hp tc quc phng l mt trong nhng kha cnh ca chnh sch ch ng hi nhp . Cn ghi nhn l Vit Nam v Anh Quc t c tha thun v quan h i tc chin lc . B trng Panetta s phi ch sao cho vic cng c hp tc quc phng gia hai nc khng b cc nhn vt bo th trong ng Cng sn Vit Nam din gii nh l mt li ko Vit Nam vo trong chnh sch ngn cn, chng Trung Quc. Vic ny ni th d hn lm, cho d Hoa K lin tc tuyn b chnh thc rng h mun lm vic vi Trung Quc ch khng phi mun kim ch. B trng Panetta cng s phi i mt vi tnh th kh x trong cc vn nhn quyn. ng c th gim nh vn v y sang b Ngoi giao M. Th nhng, b trng Panetta khng th khng ch ti chnh sch ca M v cc mi quan ngi Hoa K ca cc cc cng dn M v ca nhng thnh vin ch cht trong Ngh vin. Mt khc, b trng Panetta phi rt thn trng, trnh to ra nhng mong i thiu thc t lin quan n ng hng hp tc quc phng trong tng lai, ni cc quan chc Vit Nam, nhng ngi ang thc y chnh sch ch ng hi nhp . Cui cng, b trng Panetta cng phi thc c rng nhng nhn vt bo th trong ng cng sn sng dng vn nhn quyn ngn cn s pht trin mi quan h hp tc quc phng cht ch hn vi Hoa K.

B trng Quc phng Hoa K Leon Panetta

REUTERS

URL ngun: http://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20120525-muc-dich-chuyen-tham-vietnam-cua-bo-truong-quoc-phong-my