Greater Rajshahi Integrated Rural Development Project Approach and Methodology for Baseline Study 1.

Introduction The general methodology for the Baseline study is based on various approaches of data/ information collection from primary and secondary sources. This may include: (i) review of literature, reports and documents, (ii) local consultative meetings and participatory process, (iii) survey of sample villages/areas from where information was collected, (iv) household socio economic and poverty survey, (v) data processing and analysis, and (vi) report writing. Review of literature, Reports and Documents The consultants soon after mobilization start discussions with the Project Director, and PMO officials. Discussions are also conducted with the personnel of similar projects at LGED. Project documents, feasibility study report and other relevant documents, records, legislations, rules and regulations, manuals and guidelines are collected and reviewed. Local Consultative Meetings and Participatory Process The consultants have organized several consultative meetings and discussions with PMO, LGED officials at field levels, training institutes, trainers, facilitators, LGED training units, etc. Moreover, some participatory meetings and discussions with various stakeholders such UP representatives, community leaders, market management committees, business associations, and other project beneficiaries are held to identify the performance indicators of project activities. The consultants also share experiences with project management and field level functionaries. Survey of Sample Villages/Areas Having literature review, consultation process and understanding of the Terms of Reference, the consultants have prepared socio-economic criteria and performance indicators and formats for collecting data on existing situation of villages/areas where infrastructure will de developed. This data helps undertake situational analysis of the project areas and compare benchmark situation (without project) with that of with project situation. Household Socio Economic and Poverty Survey The major component of the Project is the roads improvement along with construction of bridges and culverts in four project districts- Rajshahi, Naogaon, Natore and Chapai Nowabganj having 31 Upazilas in the north west region of Bangladesh. About 63.6 km of Upazila roads and 222.3 km of Union roads have been improved. Also 31 growth centers/markets taking one from each Upazila, have been developed. Tree plantation in 158.7 km of roads is being done. Out of the total outlay of $30 million, about 80% is earmarked for infrastructure development. Of the total investment cost, IDB provides two thirds and GoB, the remaining one third. The major objective of the Project is to help reduce poverty among the rural population. It can be mentioned here that Rajshahi is one of the most poverty stricken divisions in the country, where the incidence of rural poverty is high at 52.3%. The rate is substantially higher than the national average for rural areas at 43.8%. Moreover compared to the national average, poverty reduction rate is slower in Rajshahi division.

1.1.

1.2.

1.3.

1.4.

During 2000-05 annual poverty reduction in rural areas of Bangladesh was 1.7% points, while in Rajshahi division the comparable proportion was only 1.24% points (Table-1). Therefore special attention is needed for the Greater Rajshshi area. Table-1: Incidence of Poverty by Divisions Division 2000 Total Rural Urban Barisal 53.1 55.1 32.0 Chittagong 45.7 46.3 44.2 Dhaka 46.7 55.9 28.2 Khulna 45.1 46.4 38.5 Rajshahi 56.7 58.5 44.5 Sylhet 42.4 49.6 41.9 Average 48.9 52.3 35.2
Source: BBS, HIES 2005

Total 52.0 34.0 32.0 45.7 51.2 33.8 40.0

2005 Rural 54.1 36.0 39.0 46.5 52.3 36.1 43.8

Urban 40.4 27.8 20.2 43.2 45.2 18.6 28.4

Annual avg. change in % -0.20 -2.06 -3.38 +0.02 -1.24 -2.70 -1.70

It is already mentioned that the major component of the project is to improve/construct about 286 km of UZ and UN roads. Therefore, influence areas of these roads will be the major beneficiary. Hence the main household survey will be conducted in the influence zone of this project. The influence zone is determined by taking the area located within 2.5 kms of both the sides of the roads to be improved by the project. Thus the influence area is 286 x 5 =1,430 km2. About 1.57 million people live in this area. In addition to the common road benefits, 3560 poor households/individuals will be provided with support for improving living standard in the form of supply of safe drinking water and sanitation facilities. Eight-module based capacity building program will be provided to them. It is expected that a substantial number of them will live along the roads to be developed by the project. Market development is another component of the project, as per which 31 market centers will be developed. In order to empower women, in each of the developed markets there is a plan to allocate at least 4 shops to women. We propose to include all of them in a separate sample of women. They will be selected from all sample Upazilas. Thus their number would be: 4 x 11 = 44. It can be mentioned here that survey of the women entrepreneurs from the market centers will be started after the development of market as well as women corners and allotment of the shops to them. In order to improve the living standard, some of the project beneficiaries would be provided with drinking water and sanitation facilities. All of them may not live along the improved roads; rather some of them may live beyond the road side. In order to measure the impact of the project on them, we propose a separate sample for beneficiaries outside the road. From each sample Upazila let us select 10 beneficiaries belonging to this category. Thus, the total number of sample beneficiaries from this category would be 10 x 11 = 110 households. In addition to the sample of project beneficiaries, there will be a sample of those who will not be covered by any development interventions. These households will be known as control households. It is assumed that households to be selected for study either under experimental or control should have the same socio-economic standing now. Thus there will be 4 types of study samples: Experimental: (1) households to obtain better connectivity from improved roads and water supply and sanitation facilities located within the zone of influence, (2) households getting water supply and sanitation facilities

located outside the zone of influence; (3) women entrepreneurs getting shops in women corner of the developed market; and (4) control households which will be affected by normal developmental interventions only.
1.5.Sample Size

It is mentioned in the previous section that according to the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of 2005, in the rural areas of Rajshahi the poverty level is 52.3%. District-wise data is not provided in the Report. Hence this rate (52.3%) is used for sample size determination. Sample size for the main sample can be determined using the following formula: n = (z2pq/e2).de Where, n is the sample size z is the value of standardized normal variate to provide 95% confidence level. The value of z at 95% confidence level is 1.96 p is the proportion of people living below the poverty line in the project districts. It is assumed to be 0.523 q is the proportion of the non-poor. q = 1 - p. Thus, q is 0.477 e is the precision level or margin of error, which is assumed to be 5%. de is the design effect, which is assumed to be 1.15 With the above assumptions, n is calculated at 440. This has been selected from the zone of influence. They are known as Beneficiary or main sample 1.6. Upazila Samples For sampling purpose, head count lower poverty rate for each Upazila is used (WFP, 2004). The poverty rates for each Upazila belonging to a district are arranged according to ascending order (Table-2). From each district 2 Upazilas including 4 from Naogaon and another 3 from Rajshahi districts due to their bigger size, are selected using systematic random sampling procedure. Thus the number of sample Upazilas is = 3 from Rajshahi, 4 from Naogaon, 2 from Natore and another 2 Chapai Nowabganj. Thus, the total number of sample Upazilas is 11. In other words, more than one-third of the Project Upazilas is covered by the survey. For selecting a sample Upazila, systematic sampling procdure is adopted. Hence the selected Upazilas are: Charghat, Poba and Godagari Upazilas from Rajshahi district; Raninagar, Manda, Damoirhat and Porsha Upazilas from Naogaon district, Natore Sadar and Singra Upazilas from Natore district and Gomostapur and Shibganj Upazilas from Chapai Nowabganj district. Table-2: Upazila-wise head count poverty rates (lower) in Greater Rajshahi Districts Division District Upazila Poverty index Sample Upazilas
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Rajshahi Rajshahi Rajshahi Rajshahi Rajshahi Rajshahi Rajshahi Rajshahi Rajshahi Rajshahi Puthia Charghat Bagha Durgapur Poba Mohanpur Baghmara Godagari Tanore 33.00 34.10 36.48 36.68 37.00 37.65 46.43 47.85 49.40 Charghat Poba Godagari

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 a7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5

Rajshahi

Natore Natore Natore Natore Natore Natore Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Naogaon Nowabganj Nawabganj Nawabganj Nawabganj Nawabganj

Bagatipara Natore Sadar Lalpur Baraigram Singra Gurudaspur Naogaon Sadar Raninagar Patnitala Atrai Manda Badagachhi Mahadebpur Damoirhat Sapahar Niamatpur Porsha Shibganj Nawabganj Sadar Nachole Gomostapur Bholahat

33.16 33.44 36.44 40.26 42.64 44.62 33.26 37.25 42.02 42.10 42.80 44.82 47.24 48.77 51.92 54.15 55.31 41.12 44.55 45.68 53.23 54.92

Natore Sadar Singra

Rajshahi

Raninagar Manda Damoirhat Porsha Shibganj Gomostapur

Rajshahi

Source: WFP

1.7. Allocation of samples The sample is divided between 11 sample Upazilas equally. In addition, there are control households with which the levels of indicators relating to Beneficiary households have been compared. The number of control households is 50% of that of beneficiary samples. Table-3 shows the number of Beneficiary and control samples and their Upazila-wise distribution.. Table-3: Total and Upazila-wise Sample Sizes Sample category Road side project beneficiary households Control households Total Total sample 440 220 660 Sample per Upazila 40 20 60

1.8. Sample selection Procedures Sample Village About 64 km of UZ roads and 222 km of UN roads have been developed in 31 Upazilas. Road side beneficiaries have been targeted for selection from the influence zone of both UZ and UN roads. From the roads to be improved by the project in each Upazila, one UZ road and one UN road are selected randomly. In the selected Upazila a UZ Road may pass through one or more Unions. If the road passes through only one Union, in that case the Union is selected for beneficiary survey. If the road to be improved passes through several Unions, then one of the Unions is

selected randomly. From the selected Union, one village in the influence zone of proposed road is selected for survey. The similar approach is applied for the selection of sample villages for Union roads. Thus the sample selection procedure involves 3 stages: Upazila selection- 11 Upazilas Union selection-11 Unions for UZ road and 11 Unions for UN roads Village selection-11 villages for UZ roads and 11 villages for UN roads. Total samples from a selected Upazila (40 households) will be drawn equally from both sides of UZ and UN roads. Thus from each of the Upazila roads, 20 households are selected from the influence areas of UZ roads and the remaining 20 households from UN roads. 1.9. Household Selection Sample householdsPrior to selection of households from a chosen village from both UZ and UN roads, households located in the influence area of the road will be listed to a maximum of 400 households, 200 for UZ roads and another 200 for UN roads, using a format containing the name of household head, important landmark, number of household members, landownership status, amount of land owned and occupation, etc (Table-3). It is expected that out of 400 households about 200 households will fulfill the criteria to be used for beneficiary selection. From this list, 27 households each from the influence zones of UZ and UN roads will be selected using random sampling procedure. 1.10. Data Collection Instruments Two sets of data collection instruments (or questionnaire) will be prepared on the basis of the indicators provided in Section-2. The first set would be for both experimental and control households and the second set for women entrepreneurs who will be allotted shops in the GCM/RM market. The questionnaire after design will be sent to the client for comments. At the same time the questionnaire will be pre-tested in non-sample areas near Dhaka. After incorporation of comments from the client and feedbacks from the pretest, the draft instrument will be finalized. 1.11. Administration of Data Collection Instruments Community organizers will be deployed for the administration of questionnaire in the field. Before their deployment they will be given training on rapport building, survey methodology, respondents selection procedure, contents of questionnaire, data collection techniques, etc. They will also used for pre-testing of questionnaire. Consultants will supervise the data collection activities. However, Monitoring and Evaluation Consultant will be in-charge of field work. 1.12. Data Processing Data processing activities will involve the following stages: Office editing of filled in questionnaire by community organizers Preparation of data entry program in computer by the M & E Consultant Coding of responses in filled questionnaire Data entry by computer operators. Verification of entered data will be done by the Monitoring and Evaluation Consultant Table Plan will be prepared by the Consultants Tables will be generated by the M & E Consultant 1.13. Report Preparation and its Finalization

Baseline Report will be prepared by the Consultants under the leadership of Team Leader. The Report will be presented before the LGED/Client and IDB management. After the incorporation of comments, the Report will be finalized. 2. Tentative Key Indicators The following are the tentative indicators based on which questionnaire will be developed:
Road Survey

Traffic volume Vehicle operating cost Freight and fare Time required by different mode of transport Multimodal transport system Volume of road side business and productive units. Increase social services in catchments areas Increased movement from home to Upazila offices Education - Literacy rate by sex - Enrollment of school age children - Extent of Student Drop out and reasons thereof. - Educational attainment by sex (Secondary data) - Participation in NGO educational program Health Morbidity in the last 3 months Prevalence of diseases Cost of treatment Place of last delivery Place of treatment Child and maternal mortality Contraceptive prevalence rate Family planning method Personal hygiene awareness and practices

IGA Program - Type of IGA conducted - Investment, return and time given for IGAs - Loan facilities - Problems faced Household Profile - Size - Age - Sex - Literacy and education - Occupation

Landownership and Cultivation - Landownership and land tenure - Size of land - Land operation - Irrigation by type - Cropping pattern and intensity - Level of crop diversification - Yield per acre - Seed , fertilizer and pesticides used - Cost of cultivation - Agriculture extension services obtained House and housing conditions Housing structure, construction material used No. of house including kitchen and cow shed Size of main dwelling house Sources of drinking water Arsenic contamination of drinking water Type of toilet used Distance of toilet from drinking water sources Sources of energy for lighting and cooking

Household Assets - Furniture - Utensils - Electrical and electronic appliances - Agricultural implements - Trees - Transport ( Rickshaw , van, cycle, boat, motor-cycle, nasimon and cart) Kitchen Garden - Size and value - No. and type of trees - Return and cost Income and Expenditure - Income and its sources - Expenditure and heads - Saving practices Indebtedness - Whether having any loans - Sources, amount and used of loans Access to institutional credit Food consumption

No. of meals eaten Quantity of food items eaten Food shortage, time and duration Coping of food shortage situation

Other expenditure - Repairing/ construction of houses - Clothing - Health care - Education - Transportation - Ceremonies / festivals - Dowry - Loan repayment - Overseas migration (cost) - Others Community Empowerment - Membership in GO/NGOs by sex - Purposes - Duration - Activities - Participation in social gatherings, Shalish for social conflict resolution, etc - Access to institutions and other common resources - Participation in socio-economic decision making Women Empowerment and Gender Issues - Decision making on specific issues - Mobility - GO/NGO affiliation and support services received - Social obstacles encountered in working outside home