Future Prospects in Romania: Scenarios for the Development of the Knowledge Society in Romania

Authors: Constantin B. Zamfirescu Florin G. Filip Boldur E. Brbat EFFECTIVE DECISIONS 1A Prof. Petru Span, 2400 Sibiu, RO Tel/Fax: +40-269-220426 http://www.effective-decisions.com

Acknowledgements: The authors are very grateful to Corina Pascu from IPTS in Sevilla for her valuable comments which substantially improved the quality of this study.

Introduction
The present report was commissioned by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) during the period March-April 2005. The aim of the study is to contribute to the pool of knowledge on foresight in Europe (FISTERA project) with updated information on the latest developments related to the Foresight programmes or initiatives on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in Romania. The main objective of the report is to contribute to a Synthesis analysis on IST foresight in New Member States and Candidate Countries (NMS & CCs) that aims at answering some questions, such as: What are the commonalities and differences of R&D strategies, innovation strategies, and foresight exercises in the different countries? Self-perception of NMS & CCs on their respective status towards the Information Society / Knowledge-based Society; Future IST scenarios in the NMS and CC. To this aim, various methods have been employed in producing of this report. A variety of data sources have been reviewed, including the latest reports published by national or international organizations, bibliographic and web information sources, project reports and official statistical data. Unfortunately, most of the data measuring the Knowledge Society development in Romania proved to be outdated. To offer insights into the prospects of e-government applications, some interviews with external IST experts have been conducted. The selection of views was biased towards those sources who are involved in the truly implementation of the e-governmental concept. Finally, a smallscale expert survey was used to generate scenarios regarding the KS development in Romania. In line with the report structure, this work is contributing with: The latest evolutions of the National R&D strategies and Foresight Programmes. The assessment of SME sector as regards its innovative capacity; in this respect, a SWOT analysis is synthesized. An outline of the major threats faced by the educational system; the results from a recent Delphi survey conducted in a Socrate project are included. The review of the latest developments in the e-government, e-learning and e-health applications; to get accurate insights into their potential development an interview was conducted for each application domain. A SWOT analysis for the ICT sector, the RDI system, and the research on Knowledge Society issues. Scenarios for the Knowledge Society development in Romania; the results from a small-scale expert survey have been used to seed their construction. This report was carried out by Effective Decisions and reflects the research results, comments and opinions of the authors who are fully responsible for all insufficiencies and errors.

CONTENTS Introduction......................................................................................................................... 3 1. Current status of the Knowledge Society in Romania .................................................... 5 1.1 An Overview......................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Main actors and policies ....................................................................................... 8 1.3 Foresight programmes and initiatives................................................................. 11 2. The IST industry ........................................................................................................... 14 2.1 ICT sector............................................................................................................ 14 2.2 Innovativeness..................................................................................................... 16 2.3 SWAT analysis of ICT sector ............................................................................. 18 3. Skills and education ...................................................................................................... 20 4. Relevant IST applications in Romania ......................................................................... 24 4.1 E-government...................................................................................................... 25 4.2 E-health ............................................................................................................... 26 4.3 E-learning............................................................................................................ 27 5. IST in Romania in global context ................................................................................. 29 5.1 SWOT analysis ................................................................................................... 29 5.2 Scenarios for the future....................................................................................... 32 6. Conclusions................................................................................................................... 44 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 45 Annexe: survey structure ................................................................................................. 46

1. Current status of the Knowledge Society in Romania

1.1 An Overview
As highlighted in a recent report released by the World Bank1, after a decade of one of the poorest reform performance in the region, Romania has made a remarkable progress in stabilisation, growth and poverty reduction in the last four years (Fig. 1). In the Global Information Technology Report released by the World Economic Forum, Romania registered the most important progress in Europe, a similar situation being recorded in Iceland.2
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6

8.3 5.7 2.1 5.1 5.3 5.5 5

1998

1999 -1.2

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

-4.8

Fig. 1 GDP growth rate and the estimates for 2005 and 2006 (IMF, World Economic Outlook database, April 2005)

The lack of economic performance carried out between 1990 and 2000 explains to a certain degree the modest figures for the current status of the Knowledge Society (KS) in Romania3. Despite the fast improvement of its ICT sector, in terms of eEurope 2005

World Bank, Restructuring for EU IntegrationThe Policy Agenda, 2004 The Global Information Technology Report 2004-2005, World Economic Forum, uses the Networked Readiness Index (NRI) to measure "the degree of preparation of a nation or community to participate in and benefit from ICT developments". The NRI is composed of three aspects which assess the environment for ICT offered by a country, the readiness of the community's key stakeholders and the usage of ICT among these stakeholders; 3 In usual contexts the terms are considered mostly as synonyms, because both their explicative potential and their persuasive power are similar. Conventionally, the term Information Society refers to a society in which low-cost information and ICT are in general use, whilst Knowledge-based Society is used to stress the fact that the most valuable asset is investment in intangible, human and social capital. Since information is axiologically as well as technologically subordinated to knowledge, "Information Society" is seen as the technological, economic, and social infrastructure for any "Knowledge-based Society". While information does not necessarily suppose contextualized meanings, knowledge is information understood within a specific cultural context and is inevitably divers.
2

indicators Romania is lagging behind all the EU25 countries. In the e-Readiness ranking4, Romanias scores for connectivity (1.69 points out of 10) and consumer and business adoption (3.65) are yet at a very low stage. Due to the late liberalization of the telecommunications market, low and unbalanced connectivity across the country is a barrier for an acceptable level of e-readiness in Romania. From the inclusive perspective of the Lisbon Strategy this fact is reflected in an underdeveloped Information Society. The Romanias accession to EU in 2007 has implicitly brought its active engagement towards the Lisbon objectives (see Box 1). In all the aspects considered to be critical for the national competitiveness, Romania is showing an obvious vulnerability against the globalization trends (Fig. 2). A previous study5 gives a complete picture as regards those aspects. The mechanism to implement the Lisbon strategic vision, the open method of coordination, resides in establishing common targets for the whole EU, while leaving each country free to decide how best to reach these goals. The coordination is decentralized and cooperative exchange that occurs across different actors is establishing shared norms which on their turn are reinforced by on-going interaction. Naturally, this mechanism becomes effective if it is reciprocal, from the EU level to individual level. The key elements for leveraging this mechanism are transparency and active participation
Information
7

Society Financial Services

Network Industries

6 5 4 3 2 1

RDI

Sustainable Development

Liberalization Enterprise EU15 Romania

Social Inclusion

Fig. 2 Romanias performance in terms of Lisbon strategy (based on The Lisbon Review, 2004, World Economic Forum)

The 2004 e-readiness rankings, Economist Intelligence Unit. IPTS, Factors and impacts in the IS a prospective analysis in the candidate countries, Report on Romania, 2004.
5

Box 1. The Lisbon Strategy The Union has set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion. Achieving this goal requires an overall strategy aimed at: preparing the transition to a knowledge-based economy and society by better policies for the information society and R&D, as well as by stepping up the process of structural reform for competitiveness and innovation and by completing the internal marketand modernizing the European social model, by investing in people and combating social exclusion
Rodriguez, Maria Joao (2002) The New Knowledge Economy in Europe A strategy for international competitiveness and social cohesion, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Maria Joao Rodriguez (2002, pg. 18)

at all levels, of all actors and in all the required forms. Any deviation from these principles will lead inevitably to corruption, excessive bureaucracy and volatility of the legal system. Corruption is perhaps the most important of these problems. According to the Corruption Perceptions Index6, Romania is ranked 86-88 out of the 146 countries surveyed, far behind any other CEE country. Regarding social cohesion, Romanias greatest challenge is its very large underdeveloped rural areas (about 46.4% of total population). The lack of ICT in rural areas has generated significant discrepancies. To overcome this shortfall, MCIT and the World Bank launched in January 2004 the Knowledge-based Economy project to install in rural areas around 300 local virtual networks or telecenters. At the moment MCIT selected ten representatives of local communities, considered to be relevant for the typology of territorial administrative units in Romania, to implement the pilot-phase of the project. The success of the whole project depends on the successful implementation of the pilotphase7 which is expected to have, in the mid-term, a positive impact on the socioeconomic development of the local communities. But beyond this hard data, social exclusion in the KS is more complex. It is worth to note that digital and social participation are intertwined in a society which becomes progressively technical. Technology is gradually becoming a mediating tool for social interaction, diminishing the boundaries between online and offline activities. There are many studies clearly demonstrating that the focus of policies on access or on improvement of skills is not enough to promote socio-economic inclusion8. In addition, it is needed to know how ICT is experienced in the context of people's everyday life to define adequate policy strategies. If the diffusion of ICT is particularly successful in one

6 7

Transparency International, 2004, http://www.transparency.org MCIT, http://www.mcti.ro 8 See for instance, EC, 2005, eInclusion revisited: The Local Dimension of the Information Society

country and in a certain context, it is not necessary the case in other settings. Beyond the classical five major determinants along which the digital divide is configured (education, age, income, gender and geographical factors) the complexity of the technology account as one of the main identified barriers for social cohesion9. It calls for ethnographic methods in designing, implementing and continuously appropriating the ICTs. The participation of Romania in COST actions10 (implying IT specialists, psychologists, sociologists etc.) could play a central role in this direction by establishing national networks of expertise and interest with an active participation in the KS development.

1.2 Main actors and policies

The evolution of the KS in Romania has been mostly influenced by four main actors: public authorities, public and private consultative bodies, private companies and EU institutions. Since 2001, the Romanian government has declared the development of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector as a strategic priority for the national economy. As a result the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT) has been invested with the authority for developing the strategic policy for the ICT sector. It becomes the main actor in implementing the Action Plan for the ICT sector in Romania. As the IS policies affect many areas of society and regulatory areas, MCIT includes the Group for Promoting the Information Technology (GPIT), led by the Prime Minister, which has 6 minister members with responsibilities regarding the use of ICT in different sectors. Moreover, as increasing recognition of the strategic role played by ICT sector for the development of Romanian economy, the current Government plan to set up a single autonomous authority of regulation and control in the ICT sector and its submission to Parliamentary control11. The evolution of governmental policies to develop the KS in Romania has been strongly influenced by the accession to EU in 2007. A significant body of legislation and initiatives has been developed during 2001-2004 to stimulate and sustain the development of ICT sector12. MCIT has elaborated a series of strategies closely mirroring the ones set by the eEurope/+/2005 programmes. To satisfy the requirements of the EU accession, between 2001 and 2004 GPIT approved over 180 projects worth over 700 million Euros13. In the context of the Lisbon strategy and of the European regulation framework, the government program mentions the following objectives concerning the development of KS over the period 2005 2008 14:

EC, 2005, eInclusion revisited: The Local Dimension of the Information Society COST 269 - User Aspects of ICTs, COST 294 - Towards the Maturation of IT Usability Evaluation and COST Action 298 - Participation in the Broadband Society (to be approved). 11 Romanian Government program 2005 -2008, Chapter 20, Policy in the field of ICT. 12 MCIT Activity Report 2001-2004, Communications and information technology in Romania 13 idem 14 Romanian Government program 2005 -2008, Chapter 20, Policy in the field of ICT.
10

Increase of the competitiveness of the Romanian economy by stimulating the use of the most innovative information technologies; Consolidation of ICT industry; Increase of the public administrations institutional performance by coherent and generalized implementation of integrated informational systems; Improvement of the citizens living conditions

Since 2001 scientific research as a strategic factor for development has been recognized in the governmental program. The Ministry of Education and Research (MER), the key institutional actor involved in the implementation of RDI Policies, implements the strategies for education and scientific research. Under the authority of MEC, in 1994 was created The National University Research Council (CNCSIS) as the main institutional body to fund scientific research in Romanian universities. The implementation of RDI activities are carried out along three main dimensions15: Technological research (85% of total RDI budget) carried out under the National RDI Plan and funded on a competition basis by the MER. In addition, the MER funds Core Programmes and Sectoral Programmes on contractual basis. Research oriented to natural, exact and socio-humanistic sciences (10% of total RDI budget) carried out in the institutes co-ordinated by the Romanian Academy (RA); University research (5% of total RDI budget) carried out within the programmes coordinated by the CNCSIS and funded on a competition basis. As regards the structure of the RDI budget, there is a continuous tendency of increasing share of spending in governmental sector in the detriment of business sector and of experimental development against applied research (Fig. 3). This is coupled with a very unbalanced geographical distribution of the RDI funds. For instance in 2003 80% of the RDI budged has been attracted by institutions from Bucharest, leading to an uneven
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Tertiary education system Guvernment sector Enterprise sector

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Fundamental research Experimental development Applied research

Fig. 3 The structure of the RDI budget (National Institute of Statistics, Romanian Statistical Yearbook, 2003)

development of the Romanian RDI potential, a myopic perspective over the concrete problems faced by the economic sector and a low applicability of the research results. The newly adopted Government Programme16 gives an increased interest to the RDI sector. The primary objective is to help the Romanian economy obtain a durable competitive advantage as well as to decrease the development gaps existing among Romanian regions. Over the period 2005 2008 the Romanian Government has the following strategic objectives: Elaboration and regulation of mechanisms that ensure the technological transfer to the industry and to establish the long term connection between the RDI and economic sectors ; Increase of the public expenditure for the RDI sector up to 1 % from GDP by 2007, complying with the objectives established within Chapter 17 Science and Research negotiated with the EU; Stimulating the participation of the private sector in the RDI activities; Strengthening the institutional capacity for restructuring the RDI sector; and Strengthening the institutional capacity of public authorities to elaborate and implement the RDI policies. As a consultative body, an important role in shaping the KS in Romania was played by the RA who provided its constant advice and support to the various governmental strategies formulated during the last years. In 1992 the Section for the Science and Technology of Information was established and it includes the Forum for the Information Society Knowledge Society17 which brings together various civil society groups with the aim to advance the knowledge and development of the KS in Romania. To put forward a coherent perspective over the complex issues of KS, within a national research program RA published in 2001 a collection of studies in the book entitled The Information Society and The Knowledge Society. The RA covers a vast area of transdisciplinary research and coordinates projects addressing complex scientific and cultural issues with impact on the national level. For instance, the newly established Interdisciplinary Research Group of the Division for Logics, Methodology, and Philosophy of Science will deal with Human-Computer Interaction and Digital Psychology issues regarding the Romanian KS development.

15

A complete review of the national programmes aiming to implement the RDI policies is given in the Annual Innovation Policy for Romania Covering period: September 2003 August 2004 and Factors and impacts in the IS a prospective analysis in the candidate countries, Report on Romania reports. 16 Romanian Government Programme 2005-2008, Chapter 6 Policies in the field of research development and innovation 17 http://www.racai.ro/SI-SC/index.html

1.3 Foresight programmes and initiatives

In 2001, the RA conducted the first foresight activity in Romania to address the complex issues of KS18. An expert panel and a Delphi survey were conducted for defining the targets for a Romanian Knowledge-Based Society. The exercise was intended to identify the main technological drivers and their impact on a social scale in a ten years time horizon. The results were published in several studies and used later on in various Governmental strategies19. Since then, the RA has turned into a constant promoter of foresight activities in Romania, launching in 2002 a new priority research project to identify the risk processes and phenomena likely to appear in the future (see Box 2). The results will be a set of recommendations meant to prevent or attenuate the high risk processes and phenomena. By its structure, the project has also a preparatory mission to raise awareness and build capacity and competence on foresight activities through networking of different RDI institutes. The project is structured in two phases with an increasing degree of integration of researchers involved in a large spectrum of research topics. The first phase ended in 2004 with a collection of individual studies published in a book20 and on the Internet. The individual studies will be used as background material for the next phase when foresight methods (genius forecasts, Delphi surveys, Cross Impact analysis, and scenarios) will be employed to extend, correlate and classify the risk

Box 2. The foresight exercise for risk prevention Name: Interdisciplinary project to prevent major risks on a national scale Initiator: The Romanian Academy Scope/areas covered: no predefined boundaries of scope Duration: 2002-ongoing Primary objectives: to identify risk processes and phenomena with a major impact on a national scale, to identify a set of possible actions to prevent or attenuate the risks Secondary objectives: networking and integration of different research institutes, build capacity and competence on foresight activities Time horizon: 10-15 years Methodology: environment scanning, Delphi survey, Cross Impact Analysis. Major characteristics: intensive use of IT collaborative tools, systemic and interdisciplinary approach, shifting from classical technology foresight activities Impact: a set of recommendations for public authorities to prevent or attenuate the risks

18 19

Filip et. al., IT Tools for Foresight Studies MCIT, National Strategy for the new economy and implementation of Information Society in Romania

processes and phenomena. Overall, the project reflects the current trends in foresight activities which are shifting from pure technology foresight to a broader notion of identifying future challenges and risks in society. Slowly, foresight activities were starting to raise the interest among the Romanian authorities as a strategic instrument for policy making. MER was involved in the ForeTech (Technology and Innovation Foresight for Romania, 2002 2004)21 project, a pilot initiative for Romania and Bulgaria in FP5. The project had mainly an introductory mission of foresight activities to increase awareness and build capacity and competence on foresight. In 2004 two foresight exercises were conducted in Romania in the area of Information and communication technologies, and Biotechnology, food industry and agriculture. At present MER is involved in another pilot project - The Foresight Blueprints Initiative22 - coordinating the setting up of a Regional Foresight Programme in the Iasi Region (NE of Romania). The programme is managed by the Regional Integration Office of Iasi County Council and the Technology Park Technopolis of Iasi. As few regions have implemented Regional Foresight exercises so far, MER is interested in this initiative in relation with the specific issues of regionalisation of RDI policy in Romania. The Foresight initiative meant to define the RDI National strategy (2005-2006) will be the first fully fledged foresight programme in Romania. The exercise is commissioned

Box 3. The foresight initiative to define the National RDI Strategy 2007-2013 Name: Foresight Initiative for the Romanian RDI strategy Initiator: MER Scope/areas covered: thematic panels Duration: April 2005 and October 2006 Primary objectives: draft proposal for the next RDI Plan Secondary objectives: a thorough analysis of the current RDI system, strengthen transparency and implication of the industrial sector into RDI related activities Methodology: environment scanning, SWOT analysis, Delphi survey, Cross Impact Analysis, Scenarios. Major characteristics: intensive use of advanced ICT collaborative tools (Group Decision Support Systems), implication of foreign experts Impact: concrete measures and instruments to implement the RDI Plan 2007-2013

20 21

RA, High risk processes and phenomena on national scale

http://www.arc.online.bg/foresight.php

by the MER with a budget of ~ 500.000 EUR. The project will run between April 2005 and October 2006 and, as in the Czech foresight project, the primary objective is to prepare the National RDI Policy for the period 2007-2013. To strengthen the accountability and transparency in the Romanian RDI system, the exercise is expected to follow a participative approach with a wide debate concerning the resulted RDI Plan. The project is very likely to have a major impact on the Romanian RDI system, including actors, organizational structure, strategies and instruments to fund research projects.

22

http://www.foresight.org.uk/blueprint

2. The IST industry

Romanian ICT sector offers a wide range of IT products and services whose potential has only recently begun to be noticed by the world market. There are also important Romanian brands that have acquired recognition at both national and regional level. The ICT sector was growing at a rate faster than GDP and is expected to continue growing at this rate for the near future. Conversely, the effort made to reform the RDI system was very weak. Due to a poor implementation of RDI policies, the RDI system is at a very basic development stage. Institutional financing with its outdated structure is dominant, and only very recently there seems to be systematic attempts to restructure the RDI system.

2.1 ICT sector

According to WITSAs study23, global ICT spending is expected to grow faster than the global economy at approximately 7.6 % yearly. Among world regions, Eastern Europe will grow fastest at a pace of 11.9 % yearly. The Romanian software industry is one of the regions fastest growing sectors, with an average increase of 18.8% yearly during the period 2001-2004.
ICT spending (millions USD) 24

2000 Computer Hardware Computer Software Computer Services Communications Total Estimates Computer Hardware Computer Software Computer Services Communications Total 77,9 77,5 1.509,3 1.901,9 164,5 50,4 45,4 904,6 1.164,9 2004 237.2 87,4 84,9 51,3 55,4

2001 202,6 60,2 65,0

2002 231,3 68,6 71,5

2003 234,1

824,9 1.134,3 2005 244,7

976,5 1.333,0 2006 254 100 94,2 1.963 2.412

1.226,8 1.601,1 2007 269 115 105 2.199 2.687

1.724,5 2.141,4

23 24

WITSA/IDC Digital Planet 2004- The Global Information Economy idem

The Romanian ICT market features a good dynamic and high growth potential. For the period 2005-2007, ICT spending in Romania is expected to grow at 12,2% yearly. The EU enlargement process constitutes a strong driver for this development pattern of the Romanian ICT sector since, on the one hand, it increases political participation in the EU technology and communications policy debate and, on the other hand, it requires adopting and implementing the EU regulations concerning the ICT sector. In terms of market share, the Romanian ICT market is still largely hardware oriented, but feature an increasing share of spending on markets with the most added-value: software products and IT services. The software market was worth 68 million EUR in 2004 and is estimated to double in 200825. This trend is reflected in the recently launched report by the World Economic Forum where Romania, driven by strong across-the-board improvements, especially in the area of company sophistication, jumped 22 ranks in the Business Competitiveness Index.
Software and service market value26

2000 (thousands $) Net sales Sold production Added value Export 232,797 163,275 79,125 56,742

2001 (thousands $) 350,222 232,737 133,857 92,000

2002 (thousands $) 533,000 317,000 191,000 130,000

2003 (thousands $) 690,000 405,000 250,000 175,000

The hardware industry has never been seen as a strategic option for Romanian industry27. As a substitute, the assembly production expands at a swift pace28. Yet, the mid-term objective of the Romanian government was to transform the country into a high-tech area used largely for outsourcing purposes. If few years ago outsourcing was restricted to small-scale projects, requiring mostly programming skills, in the last years the demand for large-scale and complex projects exceeds the expertise or capability of a single company. To open opportunities for complex projects as well as for large-scale national projects the current trend in Romania is to establish so called software outsourcing clusters29. Their potential to expand outside the regions or niches is high and is limited only by a poor understanding of marketing and branding issues.

25 26

IDC ANIS, http://www.anis.ro 27 MCIT, National Strategy for the new economy and implementation of Information Society in Romania 28 Flamingo Computer becomes a multinational company with subsidiaries in seven countries for its own PCs brand. 29 See for instance http://www.transylvaniacluster.com

To moderate the brain-drain effect as regards IT specialists, Romanian government offered incentives to ICT companies that employ highly specialized IT employees. In the period 2003-2004 the brain drain was nearly 0, comparing with a ratio of 20-30% in 2000. More recently, Romanians who worked abroad for foreign IT companies are increasingly being selected to run offshore software development centres in Romania30. While there are many programmers in Romania, experienced project managers are still missing (is a common case as the foreign software houses to appoint for awhile their own managers)31. If the actions to minimize brain drain effect could be considered successful, at the some time Romania is facing a software divide32. The IT industry is concentrated in those cities with educational institutes offering ICT engineering training. With around 50% from the total workforce, Bucharest and the cities from the central and western part of Romania contribute with more then 90% of ICT production. At the same time, we have on the one hand an increasingly large number of very small companies with reduced activity, and on the other hand, a small number of companies with above average development rates33. The dominance of ICT industry by the companies from these regions has led already to monopolistic tendencies within the Romanian ICT market. Some analysis34 demonstrate very well that the geographical polarization in Romanian ICT industry correlates very well with KS indicators: a high degree of e-readiness is a key driver for strengthening the ICT industry.

2.2 Innovativeness
With few exceptions35, the current economic competitiveness of ICT sector in Romania is rather determined by low wages than by innovation. There are many factors which could explain to a certain degree the low interest of industry in RDI activities: absence of a competitive environment, lack of an innovation culture in SME sector, absence of financial instruments etc. The lack of a consistent policy to promote an innovative culture is acknowledged in the ECs last regular report on Romania, and recommends that the effort should now focus on reinforcing research-related administrative capacity and infrastructures36. EU accession may slowly change this situation due to an increase of competition and larger foreign investments. The increase in the state budget for research is included in the current legislation, and Romania intends to achieve the target of 1% of GDP for research in 2007 and 3% by 2010.
30 31

Pierre Audoin Consultants, 2003 ANIS, Assessment report: IT sector 32 idem 33 IPTS, Insights in the ICT Manufacturing and software industry in Romania 34 ANIS, http://www.anis.ro 35 A success story for an innovative company is GeCAD Software. Microsoft has just released its own version of antivirus software based on the technology purchased from GeCAD Software. 36 European Commission, Regular Report on Romanias progress towards accession 2004

While spending on ICT has grown remarkably over the last years, the relationship of IT expenditures to GDP per-capita is still considerably lower than the EU25 average. In 2004 the gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD) was 0.4% of the national GDP, much lower than in the EU25 (1.95%) or the other countries. Business-financed R&D as a percentage of industrial output is the lowest in the EU and unable to sustain competitive research projects. The situation is similar with regard to the number of researchers and scientific publications and patents. Nevertheless, the share of the business sector in financing GERD is close to the EU25 average.
RDI indicators37

RDI indicators Gross domestic expenditure on R&D as GDP % GERD (2003) Patents EPO as no. of EPO patents/million inhabitants (2002) Patents USPTO as no. of EPO patents/million inhabitants (2002) IT expenditure as GDP % (2004) Telecommunications expenditure GDP % (2004) High-tech exports as a share of total exports (2003)

RO 0.4 0.85 0.17 1.8 6.6 3.3

EU15 2 158.4 71.34 2.9 3.2 17.2

EU25 1.95 133.6 59.92 2.9 2.6 17.8

In the EU Innovation Scoreboard, nearly all aspects are at a level far below the EU average38. Recent trends in the countrys position show positive growth trends in science and engineering graduates, lifelong learning, employment in high-tech sectors and services, public RDI expenditure and EPO patents. Negative trends are recorded for business R&D expenditure, EPO patents and ICT expenditures. Unfortunately this is also reflected in the reduced number of projects won in Framework Programmes39. There are some clear grounds why Romanias participation is inadequate: isolation from the international scientific community, lack of cooperation between research institutes and industry, institutional and legislative malfunctions, and partially the lack of a proper infrastructure. Yet above all, the key to success in research is partnership and scientific collaboration. Even if special effort is currently made to foster Romanias participation, without an active support from the EC there is a minor chance to bring tangible results in the near future. Most of the consortia are built on trust and good track records of past collaborations. The contribution itself becomes a catalyst for an acceptable level of implication in FP. A low participation is further diminishing the chance of taking part in future proposals.

37 38

EUROSTAT European Trend Chart on Innovation, Annual Innovation Policy for Romania 2004. 39 MCIT: in FP5 from 8 calls have been retained 82 proposals from 453 summations and in FP6 from 2 calls 24 from 301

2.3 SWAT analysis

The EU enlargement process is a strong driver for faster economic and social development of KS in Romania. An increase in governmental and private investment in ICT is likely to continually improve e-readiness on average but with different intensities across geographical regions and social categories. To synthesizes, the following SWOT analysis gives a perspective over the major issues facing the Romanian ICT sector today: SWOT: ICT sector in Romania40 Strengths Relatively high skilled and low cost workforce ICT is recognized as a national strategic priority for the economic development Macroeconomic stability and accelerating economic growth Some domestic large-scale projects developed experience and credentials Increasing ICT usage in schools, firms and social life The implementation of telecentres programmes in rural areas, high penetration rate of cable-TV Universities spread throughout the country Strategic location to serve the EU market, export oriented industry Weaknesses Lack of marketing and project management knowledge Low efficiency of public bodies to implement and execute ICT policies Uneven geographical distribution of ICT companies Most domestic companies are dependent on few strategic clients Uninformed opinion as regards the social impact of ICT Low penetration rate of ICT in rural areas Poor coordination and inefficient resource allocation among companies, research institutions and public sector Weak networking with similar foreign companies, low added value

40

Some items are based on eEurope+ Benchmarking Report and Assessment report: IT sector

Opportunities Increasing opportunities for lifelong learning Romanias closer integration into the EU economy Increasing potential of domestic demand from private and public sector Increasing foreign direct investment to develop domestic ICT projects Involving the end-users in every important ICT development Leapfrogging using new technologies, the emergence of wireless solutions Improvement of industry-university collaboration and development of technology transfer centres EU gives a great importance to ICT; multi-channel access policy

Threats Neglecting cognitive ergonomics and user-centred design Increased competition from foreign companies Monopolistic tendencies of some domestic ICT companies Low added value due to temptation to short-range profit Trends towards technological determinism Rejection of ICT due to perceived complexity and lack of usefulness Inadequate policies to encourage a tight collaboration between industry and research Increased competition between candidate countries

3. Skills and education

Despite the fact that Romanias annual investment in education (3.4% of GDP) is below CEEC average (4.4 percent) there is an acute divergence between the skills produced by the education system and the labour market demand. Romanian authorities are committed to gradually increasing the investment in education to 6% of the GDP by 2007 and to implementing the necessary reforms to improve the quality of education and correct the mismatch between the skills that the education system produces and the labour market demand41. The newly adopted legislation will restructure the university studies in three cycles (Bachelor, Master, and Doctoral) and will implement a national framework for quality assurance in the national education42. These changes are expected to have a significant impact over the quality of academic research meant to provide a competitive workforce in the near future. Universities are facing difficulties due to brain drain and ageing personnel. Low wages, an unsupportive environment for entrepreneurship, the outdated and often inappropriate curriculum to conduct high quality research are some few reasons why young researchers are not following an academic career. In addition, the opportunities for professional advancement offered by developed countries have accelerated the brain-drain of highlyskilled researchers. These circumstances have minimized on the one hand the capacity to attract EU research funds and, on the other hand, the scientific output materialized in high quality papers (Fig. 4). Due to low competitiveness Romanias contribution to FPs is returning back in a lower proportion (22-35% in 2003).

20000.00 18000.00 16000.00 14000.00 12000.00 10000.00 8000.00 6000.00 4000.00 2000.00 0.00 FINLAND NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND AUSTRALIA PORTUGAL LITHUANIA ESTONIA ITALY AUSTRIA SLOVENIA IRELAND LATVIA SPAIN GERMANY BULGARIA DENMARK HUNGARY ROMANIA BELGIUM SWEDEN NORWAY GREECE POLAND FRANCE

Fig. 4 ISI publications per million people in the last ten years (2003) (ISI Thomson, cited in the Ad-Astra analysis, http://www.ad-astra.ro)

41 42

World Bank, Romania Restructuring for EU Integration-The Policy Agenda National Report 2004-2005 - towards the European higher education area bologna process

Beside these inherent drawbacks, Romania could benefit from a large diaspora of Romanian scientists. With minimal incentives, many PhD graduates would be encouraged to return to their home country. While relevant policies have been mistreated so far, some NGOs43 are very active in promoting the necessary measures to reform the RDI system. Recently the National Centre of Scientific Research in Higher Education published an action plan meant to enforce some qualitative criteria in assessing scientific outcome. The plan basically resides in the introduction of postdoctoral programmes and reorganisation of scientific commissions on the basis of international criteria for measuring professional achievements. With 1.71 researchers per 1000 employees, Romania has approximately a third less researchers than the average European level (5.5/1000 employees). The number of researchers has decreased continuously, in 2003 the recorded researchers were a third less than 1995 with a share of researchers under 30 years of only 14% from the total researchers, 54% being between 40 and 60 years, and 7% older than 6044. Due to the early stage of outsourcing model employed by most of ICT companies, they are still tempted to focus on technical skills rather than business ones. In a recent effort to assess global skills knowledge in over 400 subject areas, Romania is ranked on the 3rd place after India and United States in the International Most Certified Citizens index45.
Human resources46

RO Science and engineering graduates (), 2002 Population with tertiary education (%), 2003 Life-long learning (%), 2003 Employment in high-tech manufacturing (%), 2003 Employment in high-tech services (%), 2003 5.8 9.6 1.3 5.3 1.45

EU15 12,4 21.8 9.7 7.1 3.49

EU25 11.3 20.4 9.0 6.6 3.19

While the business and interpersonal skills are gradually noticed to be a key driver for the development of ICT sector47, the divergence between the skills produced by the education system and the labour market demand still persist to a certain extent. Even if the number of graduates in engineering field is twice less than EU average, as long as

43 44

See for instance http://www.ad-astra.ro Romanian Statistical Yearbook, cap 7, 2003 45 http://www.brainbench.com 46 European Trend Chart on Innovation, Annual Innovation Policy for Romania Covering period: September 2003 August 2004 47 In an interview from Capital newspaper, WizRom reported a higher growth rate (50-60%) than average ICT growth (10-15%) due to increasing investment in specialized training.

only one quarter of the ICT specialists are working in the field48 there should be no shortage in satisfying the actual market demand. These circumstances point out that the human capital is underutilized and a qualitative improvement of the education system would significantly advance the expansion of ICT applications. The development of KS in Romania is faced with the low participation rates in secondary and tertiary education and in adult learning in rural areas and for disadvantaged groups which are not yet showing significant improvements49. Between 1999 and 2003, educational attainment rates fell in Romania from 74.6 % to 73.8%. The regional disparities in Romania prevent a balanced development of the KS. The major cities from central and western part of the country are being favoured and develop faster because of their improved infrastructure and better human resources, while the rural areas and the rest of the country remain underdeveloped. Investment in telecommunication infrastructure is still insufficient and important investments are not being considered for the near future. Since expansion of the fixed lines network in rural areas does not seem to be economically efficient50 it is believed that wireless solutions and cable TV are cost saving alternatives to improve the connectivity for rural areas. Given the large share of the rural population in Romania (in 2004, 46.4 % of the total population) this pose a serious concern for the development of KS. Due to a decreasing number of economic alternatives in some less developed cities there is a trend that young peoples are migrating from urban to rural areas51. For the rural areas this tendency is turning into a greater capacity to create the essential resources for human development. Even if some experts think that major cities will always know better how to benefit from the KS and the rural areas will continue to lag far behind, KS may play a major role in translating these resources into human development and to decrease social inequalities and regional disparities. At present the vocational and continuous education based on ICT and Internet is progressing. Because of the tardy initiatives to develop the Internet, the relative reduced number of households and schools with Internet access still maintain the large share of computer illiterate population. At the moment, Internet has been introduced into the Romanian educational curriculum and PCs are used as supporting tools for educational purposes. These measures have created a favourable environment to the development of ICT and stimulated interest among the young peoples. As mentioned already, there are plans to provide computers and IT services for the rural areas aiming to extend the Internet connectivity between schools and some public institutions.

48 49

eEurope+ Benchmarking Report. Regular Report on Romanias progress towards accession 2004 50 eEurope+ Benchmarking Report 51 2003-2005 National Human Development Report for Romania.

In the framework of Socrate project LEONIE52, Politehnica University of Bucharest has conducted a Delphi survey to identify major drivers of change, in economy and society, which effect the present and future development of education and training in Romania. The survey identified the following major threats for the development of the Romanian education system: the decreasing quality, the limited access to the ICT infrastructure due to skills shortage and financial constrains and the lack of correspondence between curricula and market needs. At the same time, the survey mentions that the private education and training institutions are more dynamic than the public ones. Among the most appropriate policies for Romania to implement are suggested the following measures: promoting investment in R&D; stimulating the use of ICT for learning purpose; improving training for teachers, tutors, trainers, stakeholders; making lifelong learning more attractive; consolidating the European dimension of education; and increasing quality and evaluation practices.

52

http://www.education-observatories.net/leonie

4. Relevant IST applications in Romania

It is well acknowledged among the experts that possible expansion areas for IST applications are healthcare, education, transport and governmental services53. Despite the evidence that the IST sector of the Romanian economy is very dynamic - as regards both current figures and trends as well as the weigh of the private software companies in the overall development, the domains considered most relevant in this context, e-Government, e-Learning, e-Health, were chosen not according to their growth but in line with two basic criteria regarding the KS development in Romania: their specificity and global character/impact versus the general solutions of e-Business applications with barely local influence (paradoxically, some of them could even deepen the digital divide). In addition, public policy may have a significant influence in these domains. The importance of egovernment driven content in health, education and other public sectors to act as a catalyst for driving the creation of relevant content is well recognized among stakeholders54. Despite some significant improvement in e-government services (Fig. 5), Romania is lagging much behind the EU15 countries, mainly in providing e-health services. In eEurope 2005 Index55, Romania is ranked 24th on the e-learning component index, 19th on the e-government component index and in the last position on the e-Health component index.
E-Government 5 4 3 2 1 0 EU15 RO

E-Health

E-Learning

Fig. 5 Romanias alignment with EU15 in modern online public services 56

53 54

IPTS, Foresight Analysis on Information Society Technologies in EU25+. Lessons from FISTERA. eEurope+ Benchmarking Report 55 INSEAD, eEurope 2005 56 Source of data INSEAD, eEurope 2005

4.1 E-government
Since 2001 the Romanian Government has become a champion in promoting egovernmental services. The extensive use of ICT in e-governance is expected to add transparency in the relationship between citizens and the Romanian state. An entire list of ambitious e-Government projects57 are intended to offer access to information and standardized forms, transaction of e-procurement, tax payment, etc. In September 2003 MCIT launched the National Electronic System (NES)58 as a unique agora to public information and services for citizens and businesses. Since it was launched nine eservices have been available and 172 standard forms covering areas of general interest have been accessible for download. In December 2003, the e-government portal received the best e-government digital content award at the World Summit of Information Society. At present, MCIT is organizing a national competition to select the best econtent application for The International Contest of e-Content and Creativity within World Summit Award. An important step was made when the use of e-procurement became compulsory for public acquisitions of some products and services. In addition, all major city halls were required to offer e-services for tax payment over Internet. Besides the fact that the cash culture is still dominant in Romania, due to an underdeveloped e-banking system the number of users is virtually inexistent59. To be more effective, e-government applications need to be integrated into local available services. Nevertheless e-government impact goes beyond some improvements of government productivity. Despite these encouraging signs, low average incomes, inadequate infrastructure and lack of transparency in government policies and business practices will inhibit wide usage of e-governmental services. There is a certain risk to transform them into simple formalities if official websites are not in line with the slogan secrecy is harmful to the public good. In the Romanian mass-media there are many illustrations of an ironic assimilation of e-government idea, i.e. e-voting system was used to falsify the elections, e-procurement system is the perfect instrument to formalize illicit contracts, etc. Simply putting e-content and launching new services is insufficient if the government does not embrace a consultative role with citizens and businesses to discover and formulate relevant policies for performance improvement. All the e-services should be launched with caution because contrary to the Scandinavian countries, Romania does not have yet strong regulatory systems and positive business environments.

57

A list of projects currently running under the e-Government umbrella are available at http://www.mcti.ro/851.html 58 http://www.e-guvernare.ro 59 In Transylvania 0.41% of the total contributors are using the e-tax system mainly for consultation purpose. Only 2% of them paid their taxes online, Mircea Greavu, Industrial Software LTD, personal communication.

4.2 E-health
The reform in the medical system is lagging much behind. The health budgetary allocations that place Romania on the last rank among the candidate countries to the EU60 have a strong impact on the ICT penetration in the health sector. Due to insufficient financing and lack of strategic policies between the main actors (MCIT, MER and the Ministry of Health), ICT plays a minor role to the quality of health care and of peoples access to these services. However, 43% of hospitals and 33% of health clinics61 have Internet access. In 2004, MCIT launched a project to deliver a health portal as a unique access point to the information regarding services in the health sector. In the first phase the portal will be used to supply medical information by electronic means and to assure on-line presence of the institutions from the sanitary field62. The low penetration rate of ICT in the health sector creates an important potential for the development of e-health applications. There are also some notable success stories of ICT implementations in hospitals. The ambulance management system put into service in Bucharest in 1996 has been extended later on in other seven cities. The system is covering a wide range of ambulance activities from call centre activities to cost calculation63. Developments of specialized ERP systems - for the management of patients, observation sheets, medical investigations and treatments, management of drug consumption, human resources, admin activities and accounting etc. - exists in 60 out of 446 hospitals in Romania64. In the past, the Ministry of Health had the initiative to start ICT projects for the health sector. Currently, there are a high number of ERP solutions for hospitals available on the market. Some projects dealt with standardization issues in order to assure a coherent integration of e-services. Under the VIASAN programme a database with national and international standards has been developed in order to ensure compatibility with the integration process of statistical reporting systems and healthcare services system65. In the international project EUPHIN EAST, Romania contributed to a statistical reporting system for medical indicators of the countries in the European zone of World Health Organisation. The system maintains hundreds of health indicators available for all the WHO European countries66. Romania also is involved in 2 projects within eTEN framework programme aiming to provide e-services in the e-health field. The negative feature as regards the e-health development is, besides a somehow chaotic development, the lack of a real market and the use of all kinds of software products (some obtained through donations and not customized). In spite of the fact that many

60 61

Romanian Government program 2005 -2008 eEurope+ Benchmarking Report 62 MCIT, Activity Report 2001-2004 63 MCIT, eReadiness Assessment of Romania 64 idem 65 www.ms.ro/ ccssdm/std/start.htm 66 http://www.who.dk/hfadb

researchers are partners in EU R&D projects, the developed products are not adopted by industry. Even projects financed from EU funds are forgetting their existence. What is missing is a coherent strategy between all stakeholders responsible for the development of e-health services in Romania (the opinion of the author of the report on Romania in the Telemedicine Glossary IST EC)67.

4.3 E-learning
The Leonie Delphi survey68 confirms that the majority of the trends which effect the present and future development of education and training in EU are present in Romania too. Among the trends considered to have a strong influence on the development of elearning services in Romania are the rise of knowledge economy, diffusion of new forms of media and the shift from a teacher-centred to a learner-centred paradigm. During the past years e-Learning services have been developing in Romania at a swift pace. There are already a large number of domestic e-learning solutions available on the market69. Some examples follow. AEL e-learning is a complex platform developed by SIVECO70 and offers support for teaching and learning. AEL can be used for the learning process either assisted by the teacher or for individual education. AEL is implemented in primary/secondary education system and in some corporations for internal training. AEL received various international awards, among which The European IST Prize Nominee from Eurocase. SOFTWIN is a very active company in providing e-learning content for interactive courses, virtual libraries and electronic dictionaries. MCIT reported that in Romania exist around 530 interactive learning materials. Together with an American partner, SOFTWIN developed a complex mobile learning system for American students. In 2003 the company lunched two educational portals for secondary school71 and currently is participating in a consortium to implement the BBC's digital curriculum service72. Due to the lack of financial resources, universities are unable to use advanced e-learning tools in education. Beside complex software tools and high-speed Internet connections, universities should hire specialists to maintain the e-learning software tools and a multidisciplinary team to design the courses content for an ICT mediated learning process. This transformation is still too expensive for the educational sector in Romania.

67 68

Ioana Moisil, personal communication LEONIE Project, Validation report 69 http://www.academiaonline.ro/; http://www.siveco.ro/products_ael.jsp?; http://www.timsoft.ro/ 70 http://www.siveco.ro 71 http://www.olimpiade.ro; http://www.didactic.ro 72 http://www.bbc.co.uk/commissioning/dcp/

Instead, all universities and some high schools have web sites including their curricula, online courses and other research materials and references.
Educational institutes connected to Internet73

County inspectorates Universities High-schools Schools

74

No. of institutes connected to the Internet 47 75 927 1365

Total no. of education institutes 47 75 1365 12637

The share of education institutes connected to the Internet from the total no. (%) 100 100 68 10.8

Most universities have partially adapted to e-learning phenomenon by opening distance learning centres. With few exceptions, they follow the model of correspondence course rather than e-learning paradigm. Most applications used in the distance learning centres are limited to material based training and e-mail communication. Since it is expected that universities and other organised forms of lifelong learning will adopt e-learning paradigm in the near future, the MER developed a set of criteria to evaluate the universities capacity to perform Computer Based Training and Web Based Training. The primary condition for extending e-learning applications in Romanian is the availability of a proper communication infrastructure. Potential users should be able to cover their communication costs and to support the implementation of high speed communication services75.

73 74

MCIT, eReadiness Assessment of Romania MCIT, Activity Report 2001-2004 75 Lucretia Maiorescu - Director Innovation and EU Programs Department, SIVECO Romania S.A., personal communication

5. IST in Romania in global context

5.1 SWOT analysis
The commitment of governmental authorities to elaborate the national RDI strategy, together with the implementation of compulsory measures to reform the education system in line with the Bologna objectives, will contribute to the development of KS in Romania. The following SWOT analysis gives a view on the major issues facing the Romanian RDI system today.
SWOT: RDI system in Romania76

Strengths

Weaknesses Drastic reduction of RDI in industrial sector, inadequate innovation culture and high share of low added value RDI expenditure is far below EU average Poor correlation between curricula and the needs of the industrial sector Week linkages and integration within EU research network Delays of legal initiatives to improve the RDI framework Failure to absorb EU funds and week institutional support for participation in FPs. Skill shortages in academic IT professions Overlapping expertise, lack of specialisation on the basis of local opportunities

Relative strong ICT industry, with a fast growth rate Increasing growth of RDI expenditure Relative high level of ICT education, focused mainly on technical skills Strong tradition in RDI sector and a well-established network of research institutes Commitment to elaborate a National RDI strategy Capitalization on the expertise acquired through participation to FPs Strength in computer theory and software engineering Universities are well distributed all over the country, lessening the regional disparities

76

Some items are based on eEurope+ Benchmarking Report, Assessment report: IT sector and European Trend Chart on Innovation, Annual Innovation Policy for Romania Covering period: September 2003 August 2004

Opportunities Strengthen collaboration between industry and research Identifying priority research topics for a better allocation of funds and increase international competitiveness Restructuring the education system according to the market needs and Bologna objectives Advancing integration into ERA Correlation of RDI strategies with Romanians integration process in the EU Active participation and networking through FPs With minimal supporting measures, Romania could benefit from a large diaspora of high quality researchers Build excellence on the basis of regional/local settings

Threats Low competitiveness and vulnerability of ICT industry on a global market Week programme monitoring and assessment, inefficient allocation of RDI founds Inherent inertia against structural changes that manifest in the education system Low intensity of integration process Conflicting relations between different RDI actors A systematic negligible association in the next calls; imbalanced participation limited to some few developed centres Emigration of the best qualified researchers; huge discrepancies between wages in the academic and in the industrial sector Low implications of local and regional authorities

Due to an increasing demand for complex and large-scale ICT products (from both domestic and external market) the ICT industry is growing and strengthening at a swift pace. RDI is still not the very concern of ICT industry and will seriously impact on its future competitiveness. A tight collaboration between universities and research centres would bring mutual benefits for both types of actors. RDI expenditure is far below EU average but it will gradually increase in the following years. The lack of a national RDI strategy will further promote an ineffective allocation of public research funds as regards national capabilities and real market needs. The education system produces qualified ICT graduates, focused mainly on developing technical skills. The inherent inertia against structural changes that manifest itself in the education system could delay and diminish the correlation of academic curricula with the market needs. Romania has a strong tradition in RDI sector with a well-established network of research institutes distributed all over the country. Advancing integration into ERA is an opportunity for the restructuring and positioning of research priorities. Nevertheless the intensity of the integration process should keep the same pace with the European countries otherwise the current gap will become even larger. Delay in restructuring the current RDI system, lack of financial resources to conduct high-quality research and corruption are the main reasons for an inadequate research performance. The commitment of MER to elaborate a national strategy, correlated

with Romanians roadmap for EU integration, could be diluted by conflicting relations among RDI stakeholders. Limited participation in FPs is a consequence of weak networking with EU research community. Continuing a low association in the next calls, with an imbalanced participation of some few developed centres from Romania, is a major threat for a sustainable development of the RDI sector. The facts show that organizations who have successfully participated in FP5 are associated in FP6 too. Skill shortages in academic IT professions are first of all a consequence of migration of best qualified researchers. Romania could benefit from a large diasporas of high quality researchers who are ready to return to their home country if some minimal conditions would be considered. Even if Romania has universities spread all over the country, they are not trying yet to take advantage of their local/specific opportunities. A better awareness of their local environment (industrial, cultural etc.) would lead to a natural formation of excellence poles with a high degree of specialization and global competitiveness.

Concerning the effort made to study the complex issues of KS in Romania, the following SWOT analysis gives a brief overview:
SWOT: research on KS issues in Romania

Strengths There are professionals (both social scientists and ICT experts) able to deal with KS issues. There are studies, think-tanks, workgroups, institutions and projects working on various topics concerning IST.

Weaknesses Lack of networking among actors actively involved in KS issues. There is no concerted effort to disseminate, integrate and extend the existing knowledge. Insufficient dissemination of relevant information concerning KS. There are minimal systematic attempts to bring together all relevant workgroups/forces. Threats Lack of interest from ICT industry due to a monopoly regarding the ICT implementation. The gap between the humanist and the IT perspectives as regards KS is a barrier to effective trans-disciplinary approaches.

Opportunities EU emphasise interdisciplinary approaches. Encourage interdisciplinary research projects with strong implication of ICT industry.

5.2 Scenarios for the future

From the very beginning, this study was under the pressure of a metarestriction: credible results, in very short time and with very low workforce. The approach strategy was to deliver results focusing on major issues (as regards criteria, driving factors, trends, etc.) and taking a shortcut regarding conventional methodology clearly inapplicable in the given context. On the other hand, the intense dynamics of the very issue to be investigated as well as the lack of sufficient history to support both pertinent analogies and convincing extrapolation, yield unavoidably a high degree of uncertainty. Specifically, a standard Delphi inquiry, as a stand-alone method for a scenario building process is unworkable. It was replaced by an expert survey, biased towards a structured brainstorming coupled with rating77. The authors deemed that this could be the best tradeoff between the imperative plausibility and speed against the inevitable subjectivity and uncertainty. Nevertheless, the results are a solid foundation for any further undertaking in this direction (all dangers of a tabula rasa approach are avoided). General premises First of all the methodology is focusing on providing the generative framework for scenarios building, referred to in the literature as scenario logic or scenario skeleton. A narrative or synthetic form of scenarios would require a large debate to discover in a nonspeculative way the complex temporal relationships among all driving forces. Despite the fact that going through the process of scenario construction is very important, it is widely accepted that the scenario logic is the main step and the basic requirement for designing creative, plausible and internally consistent scenarios. Besides, as computer scientists, the authors believe that scenarios building methodology could benefit more from the IST78 to get actual insights into the evolution of a complex system. Computational models using social agents are increasingly used for simulating natural and social phenomena79. There are already mature software tools80 for modelling complex systems developing over time which would make possible to explore in a consistent way the connection between the drivers (micro-level behaviours) and the driving forces (macro-level patterns) that emerge from the drivers interaction.

77

It is meant for outlining a composite view of the experts opinions, focusing on stability and not on consensus. 78 While the term "IST" refers mainly to the societal reality of the Information Society Technologies, whereas the term "ICT" refers to their production, services and industrial sector, the analysis of Information Society development presented in this report does not distinguish between "Information Society Technologies" (IST) and "Information and Communication Technologies" (ICT) and the former it is used. 79 http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS.html 80 See for instance http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/

Secondly, to complement the policy-scenario type sketched in the previous study on Romania81 which depicts how the future might look like for some alternative policies, a context-scenario type was chosen to show how the world might look like when the endogenous factors (effects of political will) and exogenous ones (those factors that are independent and cannot be controlled by the policy makers) interact. With the above mentioned premises in mind, the scenario building process is following the classical framework of scenario workshops, but with significant distinctions imposed by the specific context82: A. Identifying the relevant drivers (trends, issues and events together with their relative importance and their level of uncertainty83) to the KS development (KSD) in Romania. B. Recognizing the driving forces (megatrends) behind the identified drivers C. Designing the scenario skeletons A. Identifying the relevant drivers A small-scale expert survey (ten84 answers out of 19 invitations) was used to identify in a ten years timeframe (see the annexe): the most relevant drivers (trends, issues and events) and cluster of views considered to be critical to the KSD in Romania, and the indicators for a successful KSD in Romania. Thus, the first item of the survey asked the experts to contribute with their views regarding the main drivers (determining success and failure of KSD) together with a short explanation on how they will impact on the KSD in Romania. As a stimulus, the drivers identified in SEAMATE85 project were provided as background material. The contributions were carried out following the STEEP structure in order to: easily cluster the drivers, and discriminate driving forces along which the scenarios will be distributed.

IPTS, 2003, Factors and impacts in the Information Society: a prospective analysis in the candidate countries. Report on Romania. 82 Generally, all the three phases might be collaborative activities. In our work the latest two are realized by the authors themselves. 83 In classical scenario workshops the ranking is done on the driving forces. Instead, a bottom-up approach was adopted. The drivers were ranked from the beginning and then clustered in driving forces to implicitly capture a high degree of consensus, importance and uncertainty. 84 H. Dragomirescu, Prof. of Economics, Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest; I. Stefan, Prof. of Applied Informatics, Romanian Academy, I. Stanciulescu, Director of the Nat. Inst. for Telecom, L. Maiorescu, Director of Innovation and EU Programs Dept. SIVECO Romania S.A.; M. Bazu, Scientific Secretary, Nat. Inst. of Microelectronics; S. Agachi, Prof. of Control Eng., Vice-rector Babes-Bolyai Univ.; G. Neagu, Head of R&D Dept, Nat. Inst. for R&D in Informatics; A. Donciulescu, Head of Large Scale Projects and Applications Dept., Nat. Institute for R&D in Informatics; F.G. Filip, Professor, Vicepresident of Romanian Academy; B. Barbat, Prof. of Computer Science, "Lucian Blaga" Univ. of Sibiu. 85 www.seamate.org

81

Box 4. Identified positive drivers The hierarchy of social values (competence and innovation are stimulated in society; the family environment is supportive and creative; public authorities are enforcing good practices and social values; public communication abilities are improving; transparency and responsibility is promoted in executing the governmental role; an environment of mutual respect and tolerance is prevailing). A mindset for the knowledge-based economy (dissemination of relevant information; extension of social contacts both conventional and virtual; awareness of KS benefits). Education (increasing share and quality of tertiary education; diversification of means to access educational services; lifelong learning and e-learning; entrepreneurship in research; reorientation of education system from a theoretical perspective to an applicative one; training the managers; introduction of quality standards; drastically reducing computer illiteracy). Research and development (trans-disciplinary approaches aiming at reducing the gap between humanist and technologist perspective in intelligent agents, semantic web, broadband communication, ubiquitous computing, nanotechnology, user friendly and ergonomic interfaces; founding new excellence institutes for advanced studies; collaboration in EU projects; increasing collaboration between industry and research; investments in research; entrepreneurship in research; an increasing awareness and understanding of scientific activities). Wide range of accessible e-services (financial incentives to guarantee a cheap and safe access to the Internet; improving the number of e-services available in public administration; increasing IST used in all economic sectors). IST industry and technological issues (improving the security issues for IST; implementation of mobile communication technology; a large share of researchers employed in industry; the number of new companies having RDI as key mission is increasing; many companies are participating in RDI). Economic aspects (availability of financial resources; increasing share of knowledgebased goods; integration into EU market; regulatory issues to strengthen the business environment and attract foreign direct investment; development of sustainable economic relationships). Quality of life/lifestyle (improvement of work and living condition, significant increase of wages).

Box 5. Identified negative drivers Corruption Ageing population, mainly computer illiterate population Immigration of uneducated peoples correlated with brain drain of highly skilled researchers Dissemination of irrational events, informational manipulation Digital divide across social groups, regions, firms of different sizes, etc. Gap between scientific and technical level in understanding and assimilation Economic recession The prevalence of financial interest in scientific and technological evaluation Economic conflicts arising from group interests and monopolistic attitude Urban crowding, industrial pollution, global climate change Showing personal insecurity when using ICT Public perception of informational manipulation Public perception of biological risks when using ICT Military participation in global conflicts Complicated and incoherent regulatory system A political system perceived as not acting in the peoples interest Citizens are not actively participating in governmental actions

At the same time, the experts were asked to rate the drivers in terms of their importance and uncertainty regarding their future impact. The most agreed upon, the most important and the most uncertain drivers will form the basis for the identification of driving forces and their aspect range which are going to be selected. The second item was intended to identify the most relevant performance criteria for the KSD (see Box 6). It was deemed as more important to have fuzzy (non-quantifiable) performance criteria to be used in constructing scenarios now, rather than having precise criteria for validating them after ten years. For the sake of simplicity the results of the survey are divided according to their (predominately) positive and negative influence on the KSD (see Box 4, 5). They represent 10% from the total number of the proposed drivers and are synthesizing the drivers with the highest impact on the KSD and are accounting for the highest degree of consensus. With italic letters are represented the drivers with the highest uncertainty (as aggregated function of the experts rating) regarding their future development in Romania. They form the basis for the identification of driving forces. Since the experts focused mainly on providing positive drivers, it was unfeasible to distinguish between the negative drivers those who are possibly showing a different uncertainty regarding their future development. Therefore all negative drivers were considered in building the scenario logic.

Box 6. Success criteria for the KS in Romania Average income IST (Internet/e-services/e-transactions) [penetration/interest/usage/opinion] rate in [public sector/household/business sector] across [regions/social segments/ages] Researchers employed in industry Projects related to the expansion of KS New companies having RDI as key mission RDI projects with domestic solutions The share for training from the total investment Collaborations in EU R&D projects EU R&D projects coordinated by Romanian partners PhD students studying abroad The size/dynamics of the education system Participation of Romanian companies in international trade fairs The international prizes won by Romanian companies Presence of Romanian scientists in international conferences and journals The stock value of intangible assets from economy The investment weigh in communication infrastructure RDI expenditure as a percentage of GDP Information consistency

Since the boundaries between the STEEP aspects proved to be unclear for some experts, many drivers having an impact across multiple STEEP dimensions, the positive drivers were organized around eight thematic clusters with implications in more then one STEEP dimension: the hierarchy of social values, a mindset for the knowledge-based economy, education, R&D, wide range of accessible e-services, IST industry and technological issues, economic aspects and quality of life. This classification is used later on in defining the scenarios content. Some of the identified drivers are widely acknowledged as being key drivers for the general development of KS (e.g. education, RDI, availability of eservices etc.). Others, are either specific or are displaying a different weigh in the Romanian context (e.g. the hierarchy of social values). B. Identifying the driving forces Focusing on the positive and negative drivers with the highest uncertainty regarding their future development, on each STEEP dimension were identified, in a purely intuitive manner, those driving forces which are potentially maximizing the positive drivers and at the same time are minimizing the negative ones.

Driving forces and their aspects for each STEEP dimension

Social
o o o

Social acceptance/rejection of IST86.

Predominance of social needs versus IST solutions Insufficient awareness regarding social aspects of IST General social doubt due mainly to minor improvement in quality of life. User involvement in IST design (anthropocentric vs. technocentric perspectives on IST design)

Technological
o o o

Insufficient involving the end-users in every important IST development (ethnographic methods) Distorting user needs in line with the trend to improve performance/price ratio (neglecting cognitive ergonomics, trends towards technological determinism etc.) Predictable development of IST due to Moores law Seamless integration in EU market

Economic
o o o

Sound market-driven economic development under EU norms Monopolistic tendencies in IST corporate culture Unstable economic development in Romania combined with low progress in EU. Ecologically-driven attitude in designing and using IST

Environmental
o o o

Validity of optimistic models regarding climatic changes If ISTs are low polluting technologies, environmental factors are less important Further neglecting of global changes and increased plausibility of pessimistic models. Group influences on general development

Political
o o o

Successful efforts in swift integration in EU Significant political influence of major IST companies degenerated by lack of transparency Low progress in political stability in line with EU values (insufficient reduction of corruption, lack of transparency, failure of antiterrorist campaign)

86

The theoretical background for this perspective is rooted in the Adaptive Structuration Theory (Pool&DeSanctis, Structuration Theory in Information Systems Research: Methods and Controversies, 2002, The Handbook of Information System Research). The theory stresses the importance of interaction processes in mediating the effects of IST in social context. The users are considered to socially appropriate the technology, a process by which peoples selects features of a technology and socially construct their meaning. Thus, the IST can be thought of as a set of social practices that emerge and evolve over time. In some cases the users may not necessarily appropriate a technology in a faithful way (the way intended by the designers of the technology) but rather in an ironic way.

C. Designing the scenario skeletons In selecting the most relevant scenarios from the 35 possible alternatives based on the identified driving forces, two problems arrive: how many scenarios and which ones. Due to the underlying limits imposed by a small-scale expert survey and the volatile future regarding the KSD in Romania some dual meta-dimensions have become visible as main influences for scenario type discrimination: Stability vs. instability - is a combination of: a) the aggregated (but quite diverse) effect of intense positive feedback caused by globalization in the next ten years on the general situation in Romania; b) some sectorial, potentially highly destabilizing factors (e.g. uncertainty factor due to economic, social and political unpredictable development in OPEC countries; complex effects of rapid climatic changes); EU values vs. old mentalities - transparency vs. secrecy, the reign of law vs. corruption; Quality of life vs. narrow economic efficiency - for monopolistic oriented strategies, social needs are contradictory to narrow economic benefits. Taking into account the meta-dimensions described above, the KSD can be described in a relevant manner using the extrapolative forecasting methods, more specifically a sigmoid function (known in prognoseology as the logistic function, see Fig. 6). Thus, from the curve shape it is obvious that the best compromise between relevance and efficiency is to take three scenarios constructed around the three function defining points:

KSD STEEP S#1 STEEP S#2 STEEP S#3 2005 2015

Fig. 6 KSD future trajectories

Stability EU values Quality of life

Instability Old mentalities Narrow economic efficiency

time

S#1 the saturation point: considered to be similar to the current average EU15 level, implying that the EU laws, regulations and norms act as dominant stabilizing factor; S#2 the inflection point: determined by the mid point between Romanian 2005 level and the EU15 2005 level; its position in time is determined mainly by the trends in IST development and social role in EU S#3 the rising point: the worst situation considered as the failure of creating a significant KS in the next ten years.

The main influences for scenarios discrimination

S#1 Stability Share of EU values Quality of life Desirability High High High High

S#2 High Medium Irrelevant Medium

S#3 Low Low Low Low

The projection of each scenario onto the Stability/EU values/Quality of life metadimensional space gives clear grounds on how the relative importances of each STEEP dimension are differentiated within the scenarios87. This distinction is not relevant for the scenario-logic per se, but is mandatory in specifying coherent scenarios in their narrative form. From the methodological point of view the driving forces chosen above stem for: the evolution of the average EU15 countries (extrapolating tendencies) the current situation in Romania and the evolution since the integration process in EU become a priority (input vector as value and derivative) the expert survey (intuitive method)

87

The ranking of the STEEP dimensions within each scenario is not explicitly the immediate result of the Delphi survey. To this aim a statistical analysis is completely irrelevant in our methodological settings.

S#1 Socially-pulled KSD

Driving forces for a socially-pulled KSD

Social88 Technological Economic Environmental Political

Predominance of social needs versus IST solutions Insufficient involving of the end-users in every important IST development (ethnographic methods) Sound market-driven economic development under EU norms Validity of optimistic models regarding climatic changes Successful efforts in swift integration in EU

Main aspects of the driving forces: Integration in EU will lead to a significant improvement of life standard, bridging the gap between EU average level and current level in Romania. Public authorities have become a model of EU social values, emphasising transparency and responsibility in executing the governmental role and promoting an environment of mutual respect and tolerance. Efficient education policies are implemented and supported for all citizens. There is an increasing participation in lifelong learning and a swift shift from obsolete mentalities to innovative ones is produced. The strategic plan to implement telecentres in rural areas has been a great success. The plan is continuing for all underdeveloped areas. Excessive crowding and pollution from major city raised a migration from urban to rural vicinities. Fiscal incentives to guarantee a cheap and safe access to the Internet and investments in broadband communication infrastructure are increasing the share of e-services in professional and social activities across social group and regions. Intellective tasks are easier to be done using CSCW software tools. The governmental authorities are actively supporting trans-disciplinary research approaches. This policy action is materializing in trans-disciplinary networks of excellence with side effects of increasing awareness, understanding and coherence between different KS actors. Collaboration activities between industry and academic research to match the complex KS demands are strongly supported by the national RDI strategy. This will lead to increasing number of researchers employed in industry. They are gradually adding a high weigh of knowledge-based added value to products and services. The main ISTs (intelligent agents, semantic web, broadband communication, pervasive computing, nanotechnologies) are employed based on genuine end-user
88

Given the large number of the identified driving forces, to easier the scenario building process dissimilar weigh were assigned to each STEEP dimension; in bold are represented the most important drivers while in italic are represented the less important ones.

needs supervised by social scientist. The awareness and understanding of ISTs, mainly regarding their side effects, are rising. Challenges: Gap between scientific level in EU and technical level used in implementing the IST solutions will endanger the global competitiveness in RDI. Global economic recession could lead to monopolist-corporate culture and an increase in social inequalities. The financial interest in scientific and technological evaluation will prevail. Complicated and incoherent regulatory system will lead to a poor implementation of law which will increase the gap between political activities and the real interest of citizens. In line with the expected effect of the drivers and challenges mentioned above, the KS will be perceived as a cultural progress, as a multifaceted support in various aspects of life (professional, family, leisure, education, health), as a significant catalyst towards integrating common EU values. Taking into account that this type of scenario is highly desirable, all actors involved (from end-users to policy makers) should promote the beneficial aspects of the driving force aspects, focusing on those with the most significant positive feedback, e.g. social needs, quality of life, increasing share of knowledge-based goods, instituting a brand certificate for the degree of user needs implemented in IST).

S#2 Technologically-pushed KSD

Driving forces for a technologically-pushed KSD

Social Technological

Insufficient awareness regarding social aspects of IST Distorting user needs in line with the trend to improve performance/price ratio (neglecting cognitive ergonomics, trends towards technological determinism etc.) Monopolistic tendencies in the IST corporate culture Since ISTs are low polluting technologies environmental factors are rather insignificant driving forces regarding this scenario Significant political influence of major IST companies degenerated by lack of transparency

Economic Environmental Political

Main aspects of the driving forces:

The dominance of major IST companies will favour and develop faster large urban areas because of their improved infrastructure and better human resources. The development of KS will favour only specific segments of society and will increase social inequalities and regional disparities. The IST leaders will develop very fast, employ the latest technologies and increase the number of e-services available in public administration at a swift pace. The gap between scientific and technical level in understanding and assimilating the IST will increase. Most peoples are showing personal insecurity when using IST and the public perception of informational manipulation is reinforced. The political system is perceived as not acting in the peoples interest and the citizens as avoiding any participation in governmental actions. The prevalence of financial interest in scientific and technological evaluation will have a moderate impact on the collaboration between industry and research. The share of researchers employed in industry and the number of new companies having RDI as key mission is limited. Investments in research and founding of excellence institutes are not requiring a strategic vision or awareness in understanding scientific activities. Economic conflicts arising from group interests and monopolistic attitude will lead to a dispersed effort in implementing the KS. The IST solutions will try to improve performance/price ratio neglecting usability aspects and the needs to develop integrative services. Few solutions will be genuine enough to be worth to be presented in international trade fairs. Regulatory system will remain complicated and incoherent, encouraging political manifestation of dominance. Financial resources are likely to be limited and due to globalization and increased pressure from foreign companies, IST leaders will attract an increasing share of public funds in order to survive. Quality of life will manifest strong disparities across social groups, regions and firms of different sizes.

For this scenario, the challenges are twofold: Undesirable circumstances (i.e., promoting the conditions that this scenario shall be replaced by S#3) o Economic recession correlated with brain drain of highly skilled researchers o Industrial pollution and global climate change o Military participation in global conflicts will lead to changes in political priorities Desirable circumstances (i.e., promoting the conditions that this scenario shall be replaced by S#1) (see positive drive forces) o The hierarchy of social values o A mindset for the knowledge-based economy o Education

In this scenario KS is perceived as mixed blessing or even as a necessary evil. In professional activities you cannot perform without that type of IST but you have the

uncomfortable feeling that is not what you expected from KS. As regards family, leisure, education and so on, you are rather tempted to give up this imperfect support. S#3 - Highly non-linear KSD
Driving forces for a highly non-linear KSD

Social Technological Economic

General social dissatisfaction due mainly to low improvement rate in the quality of life. Predictable development of IST due to Moores law Unstable economic development in Romania combined with low progress in EU.

Environmental Further neglecting of global changes and increased plausibility of pessimistic models. Political Low progress in political stability in line with EU values (insufficient reduction of corruption, lack of transparency, failure of antiterrorist campaign)

Main aspects of the driving forces: The challenges of S#1 if they reach a critical mass. Other possible facts/developments: political instability at EU level, economic recession and increased corruption, unexpected climatic changes, significant growth of terrorism etc. For this scenario the challenges are: any success stories regarding the S#1 driving forces In this scenario KS is perceived as the Big Bad Wolf. Frustration, dangers and even fears are dominating rather unclear advantages. Even if frustration is not caused by the KS itself, the general feeling is of loosing control because of avalanche-like dangerous development and therefore KS becomes totally irrelevant in this context.

6. Conclusions
The economic growth recorded during the past 5 years and the optimistic medium term forecasts represent favourable conditions for developing the KS in Romania. The EU enlargement process is the strongest driver in directing and amplifying the process. The strong digital divide and the ineffective RDI system are the main challenges for the Romanian KS development. As a strategic instrument for policy making, foresight activities are starting to raise the interest among the Romanian authorities. For the Romanian context, the participative approach brings the essential benefits of transparency and active participation in decision making processes. Encouraging regional foresight exercises would promote a KS development based on regional initiative and would contribute to lessening the regional disparities. Driven by an increasing domestic demand and foreign direct investment, the ICT industry is expected to keep growing much faster than the rest of the economy. The assembly production is supposed to follow the same path. Nevertheless, the lack of an innovation culture in the ICT industry undermines its global competitiveness and reduces its capacity to attract EU R&D funds. The lack of a national RDI strategy will further promote an ineffective allocation of public research funds. There is an acute divergence between the skills produced by the education system and the labour market demand. Decreasing quality, skills shortage, financial constrains and inappropriate curricula are the main threats faced by the Romanian education system. The commitment to elaborate the national RDI strategy and to reform the education system according to the market needs and the Bologna objectives will positively impact on the development of KS in Romania. Despite significant improvement in e-government services, e-learning and e-health services are underutilized. The increasing participation in lifelong learning is likely to trigger a wider adoption of e-learning paradigm in universities. The report concludes with the following recommends: Promote innovation as a major political target and a pre-requisite for development. Reform the educational system aimed at strengthening the research potential, increasing opportunities for lifelong-learning and promoting trans-disciplinarity Minimize digital divide across social groups and regions through provision of competitive financial incentives Initiate a quality brand certificate User-Need inside (rather than just Intel inside) for all e-government applications. ICT applications shall be socially pulled not technologically pushed Fight corruption and promote transparency. Official websites should be monitored by an Information Ombudsman in line with the slogan secrecy is harmful to the public good

REFERENCES
ANIS, Assessment report: IT sector prepared by Citizens Development Corps for the CHF Consortium in Romania. EC, Regular Report on Romanias progress towards accession 2004 EC, eInclusion revisited: The Local Dimension of the Information Society, 2005 European Trend Chart on Innovation, Annual Innovation Policy for Romania Covering period: September 2003 August 2004. Economist Intelligence Unit, The 2004 e-readiness rankings. eEurope+ Benchmarking Report, CEE 10 Countries Information Society Benchmarks Country Analysis. Filip, F., H. Dragomirescu, R. Predescu and R. Ilie, IT Tools for Foresight Studies, Studies in Informatics and Control, 2004. IMF, World Economic Outlook database, April 2005. INSEAD, eEurope 2005 - A study of the degree of Alignment of the New Member States and The Candidate Countries. IPTS, Insights in the ICT Manufacturing and software industry in Romania, 2004. IPTS, Factors and impacts in the IS a prospective analysis in the candidate countries, Report on Romania, 2004. IPTS, Foresight Analysis on Information Society Technologies in EU25+. Lessons from FISTERA. LEONIE Project, Validation report, Romanian National Seminar. MCIT, Activity Report 2001-2004 - communications and information technology in RO. MCIT, National Strategy for the new economy and implementation of Information Society in Romania, 2003. MCIT, eReadiness Assessment of Romania, 2004. National Report 2004-2005 - towards the European higher education area bologna process National Institute of Statistics, Romanian Statistical Yearbook, 2003 Pierre Audoin Consultants, Offshore Romania 2003 - Analysis of the Offshore Industry for Software Development and IT services in Romania RA, IS-KS Project and http://www.racai.ro/SI-SC/index.html Romanian Govern, Romanian Government program 2005 -2008. Rodriguez, Maria Joao, The New Knowledge Economy in Europe A strategy for international competitiveness and social cohesion, 2002, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. UNDP, 2003-2005 National Human Development Report for Romania. WITSA/IDC, Digital Planet 2004- The Global Information Economy, cited by ATIC World Bank, Romania Restructuring for EU Integration-The Policy Agenda. World Economic Forum, The Lisbon Review 2004: An assessment of policies and reforms in Europe, 2004. World Economic Forum, The Global Information Technology Report 2004-2005

Annexe: survey structure

General description: a general description of the survey aim Item 1: Please initially identify 7 drivers on each STEEP dimension which in your view will decisively influence in the next 10 years, in a positive or negative way, the KSD in Romania. Then, please rate each of the identified drivers according to their influence weigh on the KSD. Please use ++/+//--/- to indicate that the driver has a strong/moderate positive//negative influence on KSD. Finally, please evaluate the uncertainty regarding the future development of each driver in the next 10 years. Please use ++/+//--/- to indicate that the driver has a high/low certainty//uncertainty regarding its future development. Clarifications: This subsection includes a short description of what we would like to find out from this question, what could potentially be considered a driver, a description of each STEEP dimension and, only as stimulus, the drivers identified in SEAMATE project. Drivers for the (positive/negative) evolution of KSD in Romania (*). Social --Technological --Economic --Environmental --Political --(*) Please provide a short definition of the identified driver Item 2: Please provide maximum ten qualitative indicators to assess the success or failure of KSD in Romania. Clarifications: This subsection includes a short description of what we would like to find out from this question in the scenario context. Influence (++,+,-,--) Uncertainty (++,+,-,--)