Predictions in Ungauged Basins: PUB Kick-off (Proceedings of the PUB Kick-off meeting held in Brasilia,

2022 November 2002). IAHS Publ. 309, 2007.

221

Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for

extreme floods in the Danube River basin in
Croatia
DANKO BIONDI1, DARKO BARBALI1 & JOSIP PETRA2
1 Croatian Waters, Ulica grada Vukovara 220, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
dbiondic@voda.hr
2 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Kaieva 26, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract This paper presents a comparison of Creager and Francou-Rodier

envelope curves for average maximum annual discharges, for the highest
observed discharges, and for maximum annual discharges of the 10-, 100- and
1000-year return periods in the Danube River basin in Croatia. They were
calculated on the basis of 99 available, sufficiently long and homogenous time
series of measured discharges.
Key words Creagers method; Croatia; Danube River basin; envelope curves;
Francou-Rodiers method; maximum discharges

INTRODUCTION
The Danube River basin is, after the Volga River basin, the second biggest basin in
Europe with a size of about 817 000 km2, with 18 riparian states and about 82 million
inhabitants.
In Croatia, the Danube River basin (Fig. 1) covers approximately 34 000 km2,
roughly 60% of the countrys land area, where approximately 65% of the total
population of the Republic of Croatia live. Major Croatian rivers, such as the Danube,
the Sava, the Drava, the Kupa, the Una and the Mura flow through this area. It is
located on the Pannonian plain and its rims, with the water divide separating it from
the Adriatic catchments running through the Dinaric karst.
The particular socio-economic significance of this area, not only for the Republic
of Croatia, but also for a greater region, emphasizes the importance of efficient flood
control. Although certain flood control activities in this area date from the 19th
century, systematic development of flood control systems did not begin until after the
catastrophic floods on the Sava, the Drava and their tributaries during the 1960s.
Gradual development of flood control systems in the last four decades has significantly
reduced potential damage, a fact proven by the successful reduction of numerous
recent floods. Most of the systems constructed are only partially completed, which
results in a continuing significant risk of flooding across large areas. Further
development of the flood and torrents control systems remains, therefore, one of the
strategic tasks of Croatian water management.
Basic information for further planning and design of flood control systems are
maximum discharges of required return periods in adequate locations along the watercourses. These can be estimated by applying stochastic methods for sufficiently long
and homogenous time series of measured discharges at gauged locations, or by
Copyright 2007 IAHS Press

222

Danko Biondi et al.

Fig. 1 Overview map of the locations of analysed gauging stations in the Danube
River basin in Croatia

deterministic methods at ungauged locations. Common hydrological practice also

recognizes the use of various methods for evaluation of reliability of such calculated
values. The aim of this paper is to compare two possible methods for evaluation of the
reliability of previously estimated values in the Danube catchment area in Croatia:
Creagers and Francou-Rodiers envelope curves for average maximum annual discharges, for highest observed discharges, and for maximum annual discharges of the
10, 100 and 1000-year return periods in the Danube River basin in Croatia. Similar
investigations for large floods across the whole of Europe were performed by Stanescu
& Matreata, 1997.
THEORETICAL APPROACH AND INVESTIGATION PROCEDURE
Creagers envelope curves of specific maximum discharges (Creager & Justin et al.,
1945) are formulated as follows:

Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for extreme floods in the Danube River basin

223

q = aAbA

where q is specific maximum discharge (m3 s-1 km-2); A is catchment area (km2); and a,
b, c are regional parameters.
The Francou-Rodier envelope curves of maximum discharges (Francou & Rodier,
1967) are formulated as follows:

Q
A
=
Q0
A0

K
1
10

where Q is maximum discharge (m3 s-1); A is catchment area (km2); K is the FrancouRodier coefficient; Q0 = 106 m3 s-1; and A0 = 108 km2.
Creagers and Francou-Rodiers envelope curves for the Danube River basin in
Croatia are defined on the basis of available time series of daily discharges which are
stored in the hydrological database of the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological
Service (Planti, 1996).
The theoretical approach described above can be applied only when the series are
sufficiently long, homogenous and when there are no significant trends. Analyses of
time series homogeneity and trends were performed only for the maximum annual
discharge series at all gauging stations on the Danube River basin in Croatia that have
observation periods longer than or equal to 25 years (108 stations).
The analyses of homogeneity were performed by application of the Wilcoxon test
in such a way that the available series was split into two sub-series, depending on the
time of replacement of hydrometric equipment at the stations (rods to limnigraphs) and
depending on the timing of construction of major hydrotechnical structures with
significant impacts on the water regime (reservoirs, main dykes and distribution
structures). The presence of trends in the time series of maximum annual observed
discharges was tested using Manns test. On the basis of the homogeneity and trend
analyses performed, 100 time series of maximum annual discharges were selected for
further analysis.
The next step was probabilistic analysis of selected time series of maximum
annual observed discharges. Maximum annual discharges of 10-year return period
were calculated by application of an empirical distribution, and maximum annual
discharges of 100 and 1000-year return periods were calculated by applications of the
normal distribution (6 stations), log-normal distribution (18 stations), Gamma twoparameter distribution (9 stations), Gumbel distribution (11 stations), Pearson III
distribution (27 stations) and log-Pearson III distribution (29 stations). The goodness
of fit was tested using the Kolmogoroff-Smirnoff test. The results of the probability
analysis of the time series are shown in Table 1.
The last step was to calculate the regional parameters a, b and c of Creagers
formula and K of Francou-Rodiers formula for each envelope curve by means of
logarithmic and regression analyses. Because of unreliability of the observed and
calculated maximum discharges at Petrina gauging station (No. 59) on the Kupa River,
these data were excluded from calculations of the regional parameters.

224

Danko Biondi et al.

Table 1 Basic characteristics of analysed gauging stations in the Danube catchment area in Croatia.
No.

River

DANUBE RIVER
1
Danube
2
Danube
DRAVA RIVER BASIN
3
Drava
4
Drava
5
Drava
6
Drava
7
Drava
8
Mura
9
Mura
10
Bednja
11
Bednja
12
Trnava
13
Gliboki Potok
14
Koprivnica
15
Komarnica
16
Voinka
17
Vojlovica
SAVA RIVER BASIN
18
Sava
19
Sava
20
Sava
21
Sava
22
Sava
23
Sava
24
Sava
25
Sava
26
Sava
27
Sava
28
Sava
29
Sava
30
Bregana
31
Lipovaka
Gradna
32
Rudarska
Gradna
33
Vrapak
34
Vrapak
35
rnomerec
36
Kustoak
37
Medveak
38
Bliznec
39
tefanovec
40
Trnava
41
Sunja
42
umetlica
43
Sutla
44
Sutla
45
Sutla
46
Krapina
47
Zelina
48
Lonja
49
Lonja
50
esma
51
esma
52
Ilova
53
Bijela
54
Orljava
55
Londa
56
Una

Catchment
area
(km2)

Observing period
(no. of years)

Discharges Q (m3 s-1)

Mean
Average Max obsd
max
(year of
annual
occurrence)

Maximum for return

periods (years)
10
100
1000

Batina
Erdut

210250
251593

19511989 (39)
19501989 (40)

2313
2852

4841
5443

8360 (1965)
9250 (1965)

6322
7278

7860
9580

9288
11952

Varadin
Botovo
Terezino Polje
Donji Miholjac
Belie
Mursko Sredie
Gorian
eljeznica
Ludbreg
Jendraiek
Mlaine
Koprivnica
Novigrad
Podravski
Mikleu
ainci

15616
31038
33916
37142
38500
10891
13148
308
547
148
84
122

19511981 (31)
19611998 (38)
19611998 (38)
19261998 (71)
19621993 (31)
19261998 (67)
19261998 (70)
19591998 (40)
19471998 (52)
19561998 (42)
19701998 (29)
19511998 (46)

341
514
526
543
556
171
161
4.04
7.29
0.405
0.731
0.645

1286
1596
1506
1360
1405
732
642
59.9
80
6.64
19.2
23.5

2843 (1966)
2652 (1972)
2889 (1972)
2288 (1972)
2232 (1972)
1454 (1938)
1447 (1972)
112 (1959)
179 (1972)
26.6 (1979)
34.2 (1986)
55.9 (1963)

1811
2369
2382
1779
2021
1180
996
95.7
128
14.1
29.9
45.4

2776
3083
3190
2269
2573
1651
1372
153
172
24.4
36.3
72.2

3620
3936
4420
2707
3242
2179
1713
214
212
34.1
41.8
106

48
173
150

19581998 (40)
19601998 (39)
19681998 (28)

0.288
2.18
1.9

9.39
54.5
35.9

26.3 (1963)
107 (1972)
90 (1975)

19.1
93
61

35.7
113
90.1

59.1
124
115

10750
12316
12450
12712
22852
38958
40100
40838
47200
49031
50858
62891
88.5

19641995 (32)
19491995 (47)
19261995 (70)
19261995 (67)
19551992 (38)
19261991 (64)
19371991 (54)
19511990 (40)
19581993 (36)
19261993 (65)
19451993 (49)
19291998 (65)
19701998 (29)

276
306
314
312
529
784
788
823
931
974
944
1159
1.38

1846
1738
1775
1502
1935
1977
1899
2115
2321
2411
2466
2942
21.5

3489 (1964)
3332 (1990)
3126 (1964)
2357 (1990)
2331 (1991)
2716 (1970)
2524 (1974)
3018 (1974)
3130 (1974)
3260 (1932)
3476 (1974)
4161 (1970)
34.1 (1972)

2680
2571
2348
2069
2145
2291
2214
2519
2697
2974
2891
3763
31.1

3745
3485
3073
2662
2360
2678
2588
3026
3180
3379
3395
4393
41.2

4692
4747
3633
3327
2481
3052
2921
3438
3560
3804
3751
5188
51.8

19.11

19481998 (50)

0.381

4.26

7.4 (1989)

6.1

8.75

11.3

15.6
11.7
15
7.37
6.08
14.15
4.97
8.03
28.95
225
33.5
109
263
455
1150
186
88.8
326
881
2877
995
170
745
483
8876

19571994 (38)
19701998 (29)
19611998 (38)
19531998 (46)
19561998 (32)
19711998 (28)
19691998 (30)
19611994 (30)
19541998 (44)
19651998 (31)
19721998 (27)
19461975 (30)
19471976 (30)
19581998 (41)
19641998 (35)
19571998 (38)
19521982 (31)
19721998 (27)
19581998 (41)
19631998 (36)
19451998 (52)
19691998 (30)
19701998 (29)
19731998 (25)
19261991 (65)

0.255
0.12
0.168
0.084
0.054
0.135
0.076
0.131
0.31
2.84
0.291
1.34
4.19
7.27
11.8
1.64
0.768
1.88
5.43
15.1
7.36
1.61
5.25
1.87
228

4.49
3.68
4.73
2.18
2.58
3
1.51
3.61
7.13
87.5
6.45
21.8
65.8
123
154
28.9
15.6
21.8
51.1
98.3
71.5
23.6
63.4
36.8
1138

8.79 (1962)
15.4 (1975)
17.4 (1975)
8.42 (1954)
10 (1961)
11.6 (1989)
5.08 (1995)
7.61 (1989)
27.1 (1980)
141 (1972)
13.7 (1986)
38.6 (1969)
77 (1964)
250 (1964)
268 (1989)
47.9 (1959)
22.8 (1966)
52.7 (1976)
104 (1993)
171 (1993)
151 (1972)
36.7 (1980)
117 (1987)
87.2 (1987)
1808 (1955)

6.88
6.79
7.15
4.21
6.49
4.52
3.75
5.85
12.6
134
9.8
31.4
70.9
184
207
44.8
18.9
27.7
70.6
147
89.6
30.5
98.2
64.3
1392

9.57
16.1
13.4
11.6
12.7
11
8.52
8.41
28.2
177
15
40.3
76.1
246
274
64.9
21.5
51.3
99.7
197
139
33.7
120
101
1677

11.9
34.9
18.4
27.3
25.3
18.1
19
11.2
52
208
19.9
49.8
80
310
329
86.5
22.9
69.6
123
256
169
35.1
139
138
1823

Gauging station

Jesenice
Podsused
Zagreb
Rugvica
Crnac
Jasenovac
Stara Gradika
Makovac
Davor
Slavonski Koba
Slavonski Brod
upanja
Bregana Remont
Hamor
Rudarska Draga
Gornje Vrape
Zagreb
Fraterica
Kustoija
Mihaljevac
Markuevac
Dubrava
Graneina
Sunja
Cernik
Brezno
Miljana
Zelenjak
Kupljenovo
Bojakovina
Bisag
Lonjica
Narta
azma
Veliko Vukovje
Badljevina
Pleternica
Pleternica
Hrvatska Kostajnica

Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for extreme floods in the Danube River basin

No.

River

KUPA RIVER BASIN

57
Kupa
58
Kupa
59
Kupa
60
Kupa
61
Kupa
62
Kupa
63
Kupa
64
Kupa
65
Kupa
66
Kupa
67
Kupa
68
Kupa
69
Kupa
70
abranka
71
Kupica
72
Kupina
73
Kupina
74
Kri Potok
75
Vela Voda
76
Bela Voda
77
Leska
78
Klada
79
Gornja Dobra
80
Gornja Dobra
81
Vitunjica
82
Donja Dobra
83
Donja Dobra
84
Ribnjak
85
Globornica
86
Mrenica
87
Mrenica
88
Tounjica
89
Munjavica
90
Korana
91
Korana
92
Korana
93
Korana
94
Plitvice
Kozjak
Plitvice
Matica
95
96
Slunjica
97
Radonja
98
Glina
99
Glina
Glina
100

Gauging station

Kupari
Hrvatsko
Petrina
Radenci
Pribanjci
Ladei Draga
Kamanje
Brodarci
Reica
Jamnika Kiselica
iinec
Farkai
Brest
Zamost
Brod na Kupi
Strmac
Lazina Brana
CP Kri
Crni Lug
Crni Lug
Leska
Klada
Luke
Turkovii
Brestovac
Tromarija
Donje Stative
Luanjek
Generalski Stol
Juzbaii
Mrzlo Polje
Oanii
Josipdol
Korana
Slunj
Veljun
Velemeri
Kozjak Most
Plitviki
Ljeskovac
Slunj
Tuilovi
Maljevac
Vranovina
Glina

225

Catchment
area
(km2)

Observing period
(no. of years)

Discharges Q (m3 s-1)

Mean
Average Max obsd
max
(year of
annual
occurrence)

Maximum for return

periods (years)
10
100
1000

208
370
528
1304
1492
1590
2192
3405
5923
6805
7274
8902
9021
103
291
125
169
5.4
3.7
1.8
0.25
0.33
175
296
34
821
1049
50
32
683
975
118
44.1
232
614
943
1297

19511998 (48)
19571998 (40)
19511992 (42)
19511992 (42)
19491985 (37)
19561998 (42)
19571998 (40)
19571998 (41)
19481982 (35)
19481978 (31)
19501991 (41)
19651992 (26)
19261974 (49)
19501998 (49)
19511998 (48)
19591998 (40)
19731998 (26)
19631998 (36)
19631998 (36)
19631998 (36)
19631998 (26)
19631998 (26)
19471998 (51)
19631998 (33)
19671998 (31)
19601998 (39)
19601998 (39)
19481975 (27)
19491975 (27)
19471998 (46)
19471998 (52)
19481975 (28)
19481975 (27)
19521986 (35)
19641998 (29)
19491998 (44)
19461997 (46)

13.5
20.5
26.6
53.7
61.8
58.4
73.3
110
171
180
182
196
206
3.72
13.7
2.18
2.07
0.312
0.208
0.106
0.015
0.018
7.04
10
3.28
27.9
34.9
3.01
1.02
12.4
29.5
10.4
0.431
3.09
11.1
23
28.8

141
287
455
647
675
700
811
944
1137
967
949
1048
1006
76
146
22.7
22.9
14.3
7.98
5.42
0.603
0.443
109
118
31.3
163
249
16.4
18.8
92.4
254
70.1
3
19.2
137
264
327

195 (1966)
419 (1966)
1079 (1952)
920 (1968)
1021 (1966)
1010 (1966)
1145 (1966)
1237 (1968)
1533 (1966)
1581 (1953)
1259 (1974)
1631 (1974)
1523 (1974)
128 (1984)
357 (1993)
45.8 (1974)
28.8 (1989)
28.3 (1982)
12.7 (1965)
9.78 (1963)
1.31 (1963)
1.2 (1963)
166 (1968)
154 (1998)
40 (1998)
246 (1966)
372 (1966)
25.7 (1962)
31.4 (1966)
166 (1989)
373 (1974)
95.6 (1952)
5.84 (1968)
36.2 (1957)
271 (1973)
460 (1955)
571 (1948)

170
384
641
809
862
851
967
1160
1450
1416
1114
1281
1204
115
194
38.7
27.7
22.5
12
9.13
0.933
0.904
135
148
36.8
194
309
22.8
30.7
122
329
89.4
4.85
28
217
363
453

199
485
898
945
1028
975
1139
1305
1667
1791
1338
1593
1382
143
293
57.4
30.8
29.9
16.8
11.5
1.44
1.49
161
178
39.6
226
393
28.5
42.5
148
390
98.8
6.78
37.4
298
438
616

222
599
1140
1034
1167
1049
1266
1419
1791
2351
1503
1839
1481
169
377
88
32.4
37.6
22.4
14.3
1.92
2.34
179
205
41.9
246
451
33.8
60.6
166
445
108
9.06
50.5
402
495
769

169

19531991 (33)

3.55

16.2

28.9 (1955)

24.2

33.2

40

20.6
220
224
183
889
1145

19521991 (37)
19491983 (35)
19671998 (26)
19531986 (34)
19471998 (45)
19521998 (40)

2.42
9.48
3.32
3.37
14.1
18.3

12
58.5
27.5
38.5
146
178

49.5 (1976)
80 (1962)
40.7 (1987)
90.6 (1959)
344 (1974)
395 (1955)

14.3
72.6
35.1
52.7
275
290

23.4
80.6
43.6
82.4
411
438

29.7
86.5
50.2
108
619
607

RESULTS

By applying the described methodology, Creagers and Francou-Rodiers envelope

curves of maximum specific discharges and maximum discharges were defined for
average maximum annual discharges, for the highest observed discharges and for
maximum annual discharges of the 10, 100 and 1000-year return periods. The results
obtained are shown in Figs 2, 3, 4 and 5.
The summary overview of the calculated regional parameters a, b, c of Creagers
formula, and K of Francou-Rodiers formula is shown in Table 2.

226

Danko Biondi et al.

10
76

77
78

74
75
95

59

36
35
38 39
2

q (m / s / km )

33

34

37

81
85
40

32

88

15
84
42

31

70

89

0.1

7957

7158

606 1
62
1716 41
80 45
63
92
14 98
91
93
13
99
304372 96 10
87
64
83
100
11 82
44
48
47
86 46
53
1273
55
94 97
54 52
90 49
50

18
19
20
56
6768
69 213
8
9

65
66

22

45

2528
23
2729
672426

51

12

MAXIMUM OBSERVED DISCHARGES

CREAGER'S ENVELOPE CURVE
FRANCOU - RODIER'S ENVELOPE CURVE

A (km 2 )

0.01
0.1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Fig. 2 Creagers and Francou-Rodiers envelope curves of maximum observed

specific discharges in the Danube River basin in Croatia.
100000

K
K
K
K
K

MAXIMUM OBSERVED DISCHARGES

FRANCU - RODIER'S ENVELOPE CURVE
CREAGER'S ENVELOPE CURVE
10000

12
18

Q (m 3 /s)

1000

100
95
74

10

76

33 34
75
37
36
32
35
39
31
38

81
85
40
15
84

64
59
62 63
60 61
93
92100
58
87
83
71
99
45 91 82 46
1186
51
7957 80
52
41
70
5450
10
881716
9896
55
44
14 47 49
72 97
3043 53 90
13
73
94
48 12

19
20 213
56
656 6 68
698 9
67

29
28
6
25227
5 23
24
22 4 67

42
89

A (km 2)

77 78

1
0.1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Fig. 3 Creagers and Francou-Rodiers envelope curves of maximum observed

discharges in the Danube catchment area in Croatia
10

q (m / s / km )

0.1

AVERAGE MAXIMUM ANNUAL SPECIFIC DISCHARGES

MAXIMUM OBSERVED SPECIFIC DISCHARGES
SPECIFIC MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 10 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
SPECIFIC MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 100 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
SPECIFIC MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 1000 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
2

A (km )
0.01
0.1

=
=
=
=
=

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Fig. 4 Creagers envelope curves of maximum specific discharges in the Danube

River basin in Croatia.

5
4
3
2
1

Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for extreme floods in the Danube River basin

K
K
K
K
K

100000
AVERAGE
MAXIMUM
MAXIMUM
MAXIMUM
MAXIMUM

10000

MAXIMUM ANNUAL DISCHARGES

OBSERVED DISCHARGES
DISCHARGES 10 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
DISCHARGES 100 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
DISCHARGES 1000 YEARS RETURN PERIOD

=
=
=
=
=

Q (m 3 /s)

1000

227

100

10

A (km 2)

1
0.1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Fig. 5 Francou-Rodiers envelope curves of maximum discharges in the Danube River

basin in Croatia.

Table 2 Summary overview of calculated regional parameters.

Discharges
Average maximum annual
Maximum observed
Maximum of 10-year return period
Maximum of 100-year return period
Maximum of 1000-year return period

Creagers formula
a
b
3.5
0.918
6.0
0.920
5.5
0.894
6.9
0.919
8.7
0.903

c
0.034
0.033
0.034
0.035
0.032

FrancouRodier formula
K
3.478
3.808
3.711
3.899
4.132

CONCLUSION

The relationships presented in this paper were calculated on the basis of 99 available
and sufficiently long homogenous time series of observed discharges at gauging
stations on the Danube River basin in Croatia and can be used for evaluation of the
reliability of previously calculated maximum discharges for this area. Comparisons
between the calculated envelope curves show that the Francou-Rodier envelopes give
smaller values of maximum discharges than Creagers envelopes for all catchment
areas except very small and very large ones.
Because of the climate, relief and geological diversity of the investigated area,
further studies of envelope curves of maximum discharges in the Danube River basin
in Croatia should be directed to sub-regionalization. Further regional studies of flood
characteristics in the Danube catchment area in Croatia should be also directed to
analysis of flood wave volumes and durations.
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Danko Biondi et al.

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