Natural Hazards 31: 289304, 2004. 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

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Regional Assessment of the Effects of Land-Use Change on Landslide Hazard by Means of Physically Based Modelling
L. P. H. VAN BEEK and TH. W. J. VAN ASCH
Utrecht Centre for Environment and Landscape Dynamics, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands (Received: 25 April 2001; accepted 25 March 2003) Abstract. Physically based models are capable of evaluating the effects of environmental changes through adaptations in their parameters. For landslide hazard zonation, this gives them an edge over traditional, statistically based techniques that require large datasets and often lack the objectivity to achieve the same purpose. Therefore, physical models can be valuable tools for hazard assessment and planning purposes. The usefulness of the model prognosis depends largely on the ability of the physical model to mimic the landscape system. This implies that the model should be calibrated and validated and that the imposed changes do not lead to a radical departure from the present situation. Under the recognition of these constraints, a physically based model has been applied to a 1.5 km2 catchment in the Alcoy region (SE Spain) to evaluate the effects of land use change on landslide activity. The model couples a transient, distributed hydrological model with a probabilistic assessment of the slope stability. Thus, it is able to assess the spatial and temporal activity of slope instability. For the present situation, validation demonstrates that the probability of failure returns a conservative estimate of the spatial frequency of landsliding. The model has subsequently been applied to two hypothetical land use change scenarios that extrapolate present and likely trends. For these scenarios, the model results indicate a marginal decrease in the spatial frequency of landsliding (aerial extent of instability). However, the decrease in the temporal activity (is total duration of instability over a given period) is substantial under the altered land use conditions. The forecasted change in landslide activity not only affects the relative weight of slope processes in the region. It also has implications for the perceived hazard levels and the landslide hazard zonation of the area. Key words: Shallow landslides, slope stability, land use change, dynamic modelling, GIS.

1. Introduction Landslide hazard analysis focuses mainly on the spatial zoning of the hazard. It comprises techniques such as the direct mapping method, where hazard is determined directly in the eld by geomorphologists based on individual experience and the use of reasoning by analogy (Soeters and Van Westen, 1996). Because the method is based on actual landslide occurrence, hazard assessments with the direct
This article was part of the special issue on Landslides and GIS (Vol. 30, No. 3, November 2003), but had inadvertently not been included.

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mapping method tend to be biased towards singular events or situations. To avoid this, it is possible to assign weights to different factors related to slope stability in a qualitative way based on expert knowledge. Yet this leads to a large amount of subjectivity and makes the results refutable. For this reason, the statistical approach has become the common standard nowadays. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses are used to dene empirical quantitative weights that predict the relation between landslide occurrence and different landscape attributes (Soeters and Van Westen, 1996). Again, the temporal activity is most times ignored, which should be attributed to the poor temporal detail of landslide records and the relation between triggering events and variation in local conditions that dene landslide occurrence and dimensions. This is particularly the case for rainfall- induced landsliding where the attenuation between rainfall and the exceedance of the critical pore pressure threshold leads to distinct hydrological triggering mechanisms for different types of landslides (Van Asch et al., 1999). Consequently, landslide hazard maps usually reect the landslide susceptibility on a regional scale. This depends mainly on the intrinsic properties of the slopes considered (Carrara et al., 1995). The extrinsic, triggering events are usually assumed constant over the area and lumped over the period covered by the landslide inventory that determines landslide susceptibility. Thus, the response of the landscape to individual triggering events, the temporal sensitivity (Brunsden, 1993), remains unknown. The actual landslide hazard, however, is intimately linked with the temporal frequency of triggering events (Van Asch and Van Steijn, 1991). The temporal component is crucial for assessing the landslide hazard under changing environmental conditions. In most cases, the intrinsic properties of a slope are only slowly affected and the impact of environmental change will, initially be reected in the response to triggering events. Therefore, empirical models are poorly equipped for landslide hazard assessment under the impact of environmental change, as they do not consider the temporal sensitivity explicitly. Moreover, they are unable to assess the causal relations between environmental conditions and landslide occurrence. This makes extrapolation of the ndings suspect, as the underlying relationships do not necessarily hold for the changed conditions. For landslide hazard assessment under the impact of environmental change, physically based models that consider the spatial and temporal frequency of landsliding are needed (Terlien et al., 1995). For the common hazard of rainfall-induced landslides, this requires a coupling of a dynamic hydrological model that simulates the pore pressure over time with a slope stability model that quanties the susceptibility as the critical pore pressure threshold (Okunishi and Okimura, 1987). By embedding such a coupled model in a GIS environment, the model can be fed with distributed data. This facilitates data handling and the evaluation of the effects of environmental changes on the spatial and temporal activity of landsliding for a slope or region. Such changes could form part of hypothetical scenarios in which alterations in susceptibility or the temporal frequency of potentially triggering

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Figure 1. Location of the study area (marked).

events are considered. This makes physically based models potentially useful tools for hazard evaluation and planning purposes. The aim of this paper is to discuss the possibilities of physically based distributed models for landslide hazard assessment. It focuses on its capability to evaluate the effects of environmental change. A case study was carried out in the Alcoy region (SE Spain) where the potential consequences of land use change on landslide activity have been evaluated (Figure 1) 2. Model Description Modelling of the inuence of environmental factors and the changes therein on landslide activity requires an adequate spatial representation of these factors and associated parameters. They specify the spatial attributes that with the relevant dynamic factors in this case potentially triggering rainfall events determine simulated landslide activity. The use of a GIS facilitates the linkage of spatially distributed data with a physically based dynamic model. To this end, the model has been implemented in the PCRaster modelling environment (PCRaster, 2000). It is a raster GIS with an embedded meta-language for dynamic modelling. This metalanguage is highly suitable for environmental modelling. The language is simple to learn and programs need a short development time. (Wesseling et al., 1996). There are no technical details in the program and the user can easily adapt the model

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for a specic case, scale or type of problem by introducing, re-using or deleting program codes or by rewriting different components in a simpler or more detailed fashion. Consequently, the PCRaster meta-language is better than system program languages because it conforms to the requirements of environmental modellers thinking. The physically based model couples a hydrological module with a slope stability module (Van Beek, 2002). The hydrological module incorporates the inuence of the vegetation cover through interception and evapotranspiration. Interception storage is dened by Merriams equation (Merriam, 1961). Reference potential evapotranspiration has been calculated using the Penman equation (Penman, 1948), which is converted to specic land use values by means of a crop factor. The hydrological module contains a detailed description of the unsaturated zone because of the erratic rainfall and the prolonged soil moisture decit in Mediterranean areas (Van Beek, 2002). The inltration capacity determines the net rainfall input. Percolation occurs by gravity and depends on unsaturated hydraulic conductivity, which is calculated by the Millington and Quirk (1959) equation. A perched ground water table will develop at the contact between soil and bedrock. Over this semi-impervious boundary, stagnating groundwater drains laterally according to the gradient of the phreatic surface. The simulated groundwater levels dene the pore pressures for the stability module. This module returns the factor of safety, which is the ratio between the available shearing resistance and the driving forces. The shearing resistance decreases with increasing pore pressure and when the safety factor drops below unity, failure is predicted. In addition to the safety factor, the module also returns the probability of failure, P (F 1). For every safety factor, this is the probability that the driving forces exceed the resistance. The probability of failure is determined by the uncertainty in the shearing resistance and the driving forces. The uncertainty can be estimated from the distribution of the shear strength parameters and other variables considered. The slope stability module is based on the innite slope model that is valid for translational slides (Skempton and Delory, 1957). The stability of a single element of the slope can be considered as representative for a slope segment as a whole with a constant slope angle. Consequently, the model is very efcient for use in a GIS because stability can be assessed from the attributes of each individual cell. (Van Asch et al., 1993).

3. Site Description of the Alcoy Area The model has been applied to the catchment of the Barranco de la Coloma (1.5 km2 ). It is representative of the marl slopes in the Valles de Alcoy (450 km2 ). The marl is of Miocene age and, during the Plio-Pleistocene, a pediment has been cut from it in the marl. During the Holocene, deep valleys into this pediment have formed as the result of incision. They are extremely sensitive to slope

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failure. Orographic rainfall from the Mediterranean produces extreme and erratic events that are substantial in comparisonto the average annual rainfall (La Roca, 1992). Most rainfall is delivered by prolonged rainfall events between September and April. Rainfall-induced landsliding is therefore the most common type of mass movement. Shallow landslides, triggered by temporary perched water tables, are abundant. On the piedmont, accumulated rainfall feeds more persistent water tables. These water tables trigger deep-seated landslides of seasonal activity. Land use change, in this case the abandonment of cherry orchards and olive groves, is a widespread phenomenon in the region since the late 1950s. It appears to increase the incidence of slope failure on slopes that are susceptible to mass wasting (La Roca, 1991).

4. Model Implementation 4.1. PARAMETERISATION Much effort has been put into the acquisition of data and calibration and validation of the model (Van Beek, 2002). Table I gives an overview of the parametrisation of the coupled hillslope model per soil layer and land use unit. Climatic data are an essential part of the model input and have been obtained from eld measurements, supplemented with data from stations maintained by the Spanish Meteorological Institute (INM). Local rainfall data are available since 1971, regional data of non-precipitation variables since 1991. They have been used for calibration and validation of the model over the recent past and for the parameterisation of a stochastic weather generator by which unbiased replicates of the present climate have been drawn for scenario modelling. The reference potential evapotranspiration incorporates spatially distributed daily values of the incoming global radiation. This was calculated with the SHADE function in PCRaster. This function calculates the insolation for individual raster cells dependent on the position of the sun with time and their exposition. A DEM of a larger area has been used to account for the shade cast by the Sierra de Almudaina during winter. Cloudiness has also been taken into account and has been calculated from the measured and potential incoming global radiation. Land use was classied into four major types. Maps of the present situation and past land use conditions were constructed from air photo interpretation and mapping. The four land use types were used to categorise hydrological data collected in the eld. These include interception storage, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and inltration capacity. Soil depth was measured by borings and geophysical sounding. Porosity, bulk density and soil water retention curves were measured in the laboratory from undisturbed samples. Effective shear strength parameters have been determined from undisturbed samples under saturated and unsaturated conditions by means of direct shear tests (c , and b of Fredlund, 1987). The

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Table I. Parameterisation of the coupled hillslope model per layer and land use unit (see text for explanation): (A) vegetation parameters, (B) soil hydrological properties, (C) Shear strength parameters for slip plane located at the contact between soil and bedrock (Van Beek, 2002) (A) Land use type p () Cmax (mm) kc () average kc () range I: Cultivated 0.8 0.6 0.70 0.580.80 II: Abandoned 0.0 1.5 0.75 0.550.95 III: Abandoned 0.9 1.5 0.75 constant IV: Semi-natural 0.4 2.0 0.80 constant

p (): Throughfall partitioning coefcient. Cmax (mm): Maximum canopy storage capacity. kc (): Crop factor. Values of interception parameters based on eld experiments and literature. Crop factors based on literature (B) Layer Land use type ksat (md1 0.91 1.53 1.14 1.22 0.27 0.11 Porosity (m3 m3 ) 0.501 0.511 0.520 0.528 0.425 as for layer 2 SWRC |h|A (m) 0.161 0.049 0.145 0.020 0.074 ()

1: <0.5 m

2: 0.51.0 m 3:>1.0 m

I: Cultivated II: Abandoned III: Abandoned IV: Semi-natural NA NA

9.204 11.089 12.258 12.907 10.168

The SWRC is based on the relationship proposed by Farrel and Larson (1972) where |h|A is the air entry value and the shape parameter. For layer 1, the root zone, the values of the porosity and SWRC are based on 4 to 5 100 cm3 samples per land use type (62 samples are available without denite information on land use). No difference was observed between the porosity and SWRC of layers 2 and 3. The values of the SWRC are based on a total of 62 samples, the porosity on 103 samples. The values of the saturated hydraulic conductivity for layer 3 and 2 are based on respectively 55 and 73 observations with the inverse auger hole method (Kessler and Oosterbaan, 1974). For the rst layer 15, 34, 25, and 17 observations are available for the respective land use types. (C) Shear strength parameter Cohesion, c (kPa) Angle of internal friction, ( ) Fredlunds suction friction angle, b ( ) Average 0 34.8 16.1 Standard deviation

4.8 5.2

Based on 27 saturated CD direct shear tests and 6 suction-controlled CD direct shear tests.

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Table II. Root mean squared error of the groundwater level (GWL) and the volumetric moisture content (VMC) at two locations (FDR 1 and FDR 2) for the calibration and validation over the period 1997 and 1998. Calibration parameters are the matric suction at the lower boundary, |h|BC, and a general reduction in the reference potential evapotranspiration, kr , with optimised values and 95% condence limits of respectively 2.126 0.009 (m) and 0.4589 0.0004 () VMC FDR 1 Depth: 0.5 m Depth: 1.0 m 0.049 0.049 0.065 0.069 VMC FDR 2 Depth: 0.5 m Depth: 1.0 m 0.053 0.056 0.086 0.115

GWL Calibration Validation 0.189 0.847

uncertainty in shear strength parameters was determined from standard CD direct shear test in the laboratory. The digital elevation model (DEM) that forms the basis of the analysis has a raster size of 10 m.

4.2. CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL MODEL Only the hydrological module has been the subject of calibration. The stability model has been applied directly with the available parameterisation in order to prevent any bias towards a frequently occurring landslide type. Its performance is presented in the Section on Hazard Assessment. The hydrological model has been calibrated for the present land use conguration over the period 19911998. The simulated hydrological response was optimised with data on groundwater levels and moisture content for the years 19971998. The model was run using time steps of half a day. Two parameters were used in the calibration, the matric suction of the bedrock store below the contact with the soil and a general reduction in the reference potential evapotranspiration. They can be assumed to be independent from the land use conditions (Table II). Data from one well-instrumented site have been used in the calibration of the hydrological model (Figure 2). The values of the volumetric moisture content and the groundwater levels agree well with the observations (Table II and Figure 3). In addition to the data used in the calibration, data from other locations have been included in the validation. This tests primarily the general applicability of the optimised parameters under different environmental conditions. The validation of the hydrological model covers again the years 19971998 although the coupled model was run over the entire period 19711998. The purpose of this was to test the model performance over longer times because the same period is used for the prediction of landslide occurrence by the model.

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Figure 2. Location of instruments in the Barranco de la Coloma: (1) Piezometers: (2) TDR-pits; (3) Automated FDR-sensors; (4) Rainfall simulations; (5) Tipping bucket rain gauge; (6) Meteorological station; (7) Interception plot.

Figure 3. Simulated groundwater level at the Hollow.

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Table III. Comparison between observed and simulated groundwater levels for open stand pipe piezometers Piezometer Observations Water depth (m) Simulation Water depth (m) Original time scale RMSE (m) 0.53 0.76 0.59 0.76 0.72 Translated data Time lag RMSE (days) (m) 33 44 85 81 37 0.39 0.60 0.45 0.57 0.67

A+ B C D E F G

0.12 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.58 0.58 0.17 0.14 Used for calibration 0.37 0.88

Piezometers A and B are installed at the same locations but with lters at different depth. However, no difference in groundwater level was observed and the readings have consequently been lumped. Piezometer F is used for the calibration and the results of the validation are given in Figure 3.

The validation results show again a close agreement between the simulated moisture content and the observations (Table II). Only at depths of 1.0 m, it underestimates the observed values. There is a larger discrepancy between the simulated and observed groundwater levels, which can be explained by the larger absolute errors and the cumulative effect of upstream errors (Figure 3). The simulated perched water level responds late and enters the falling limb too soon in comparison with the observed water level. The same is witnessed by ve open stand-tube piezometers. Nearly all are successful in simulating the observed levels; yet fail to reproduce the exact timing (Table III). The mismatch between the simulated and observed hydrological response can be explained by the inertia of the model. After periods of prolonged drought, the simulated replenishment of the soil moisture decit takes longer than in reality. The general reduction of the reference potential evapotranspiration, which is taken as constant over time and space in the model, leads to lower simulated moisture contents, which in turn reduce the simulated percolation. In reality, the loss of soil moisture will be attenuated under these conditions. Once the soil moisture decit is replenished, the model approximates again the true behaviour. Since landslide activity depends on winter conditions, it may be concluded that the hydrological module has a sound hydrological basis to evaluate the relative alterations in landslide activity under the scenarios of inferred land use change. 5. Scenarios for Land Use Change The following land use change scenarios are designed, according to the concepts proposed by Rodda et al. (2001) and Veldkamp and Fresco (1996), to evaluate the effect on landslide susceptibility (see Figure 4):

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Figure 4. Land use conguration for the three land use scenarios. I = Cultivated; II = Recently abandoned; III = Abandoned: shrubland; IV = Semi-natural: pine stand.

Business as usual (BAU): Land use is continued on the present extent and with current practises; Continued Rural Exodus (CRE): This is a worst case scenario which extrapolates the current demographic trend of population decrease in the area at the observed rate of 50% in 40 years; Professional Slimming (PS): Present agricultural land use remains protable and in spite of the population decrease a considerable number of existing farms continue to function (8 out of the 14 present full-time farmers). Of the remaining, presently cultivated elds a fraction of 50% is lost over the period of 40 years. The BAU scenario represents the present land use cover in the area. The abandoned elds for the future CRE scenario are selected randomly until the conditions are met. Vegetation succession on the abandoned elds is dened by transition probabilities that are based on air photo interpretation for the area. For the PS scenario, land use is identical to that in the CRE scenario except that protable elds, which are selected on criteria of slope and road access, are put into cultivation. 6. Landslide Hazard Assessment If the slope stability model were an exact predictor of landslide activity, the probability of failure would equate the spatial landslide frequency over a given period. The spatial frequency of landsliding is dened as the area of landslide occurrence over the total extent of a given area (landslide density). The area of landslide occurrence

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Figure 5. (A) Observed landslide occurrence for the validation period and, (B) simulated maximum probability of failure.

is the sum of areas of individual landslides within a certain unit. For the study area, a record of landslide occurrence has been obtained from air photo interpretation. Over the period 19711998, three ights are available that incorporate sufcient detail to distinguish individual landslides (1973, 1989 and 1994). In many cases, the scars cannot be distinguished from the landslide deposits on the air photographs or represented separately on the grid resolution used. Obviously, the initial conditions for 1971 are missing. The most appropriate ight dates back to 1965. At this date most of the study area was vegetated completely and without apparent signs of instability. The observed landslide occurrence is represented in Figure 5B. In Figure 5A also the maximum probability of failure scored over the entire validation period is represented for every cell. This corresponds to a worst-case assessment of the landslide hazard. By comparing the observed landslide density with the maximum probability of failure the above hypothesis can be tested. The maximum probability of failure of Figure 5A has been divided into 40 classes of equal width. Over the total area for each class, the observed landslide density has been calculated and plotted against the class-mid of the probability of failure (Figure 6).

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Figure 6. Observed landslide density vs. simulated probability of failure for the validation period and loads that relate landslide density to the probability of failure.

Figure 6 show that landslide occurrence is consistently underestimated for P (F 1) < 0.26 and overestimated above it. This value divides the area of observed landslide occurrence in half. The largest deviations occur for the smaller probabilities. For the are a with P (F 1) < 0.10, the ratio between the observed landslide density and the probability of failure is 3:1. Above P (F 1) = 0.26, landslide occurrence is overestimated and this ratio falls to a fairly constant 1:2 (Figure 6). The ratio between landslide density and probability of failure can be used as loads to correct the prediction to meet observed values. The relationship can be described adequately by a power-function. The goodness-of-t for the function increases when the loads rather than the observed landslide density are regressed on the simulated probability of failure (R 2 = 0.95 compared to 0.70; see Figure 6). The overestimation for the range P (F 1) > 0.26 should be attributed to the fact that simulated failure reects rst of all landslide susceptibility, which in the model is conned to the steeper slopes (> 14 ). On the gentler slopes, the landslide occurrence does not necessarily reect failure but also covers deposits of slid material. The only exceptions are two more deep-seated landslide complexes that cover large areas with gentler slopes. However, for these complexes the simulated probability of failure rises to critical levels at some steeper parts and must induce lateral destabilisation, which is not included in the slope stability assessment. Since the observed landslide areas are always bordered by cells that have been simulated to have failed it must be concluded that the simulated failure replicates the observed spatial distribution of landslide occurrence but is not an exact estimator for the observed landslide density. This notion stresses that the assessment is

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Figure 7. Changes in landslide activity based on the deterministic prediction of failure (F 1 or P (F 1) 0.50) Simulated extent and duration for the present land use conditions are respectively27.7 ha and 446775 days.

more suited for comparative studies that focus on a regional assessment of landslide hazard rather than on a local prediction. The landslide inventory lacks the temporal detail to compare the temporal characteristics of landslide occurrence and simulated failure for the validation period. A 2 -test of observed reactivation against the duration of simulated failure, however, conrms the expectation that observed reactivation is positively and signicantly related with the duration of simulated failure (not shown). The coupled hillslope model has been applied to the three land use scenarios. The rainfall and evapotranspiration are derived from synthetic weather series with a length of 30 years. The simulated failure for the BAU scenario has been used as benchmark for the hypothetical scenarios of land use change (CRE and PS scenarios). Figure 7 shows the relative change in slope stability compared with the present situation. The changes are based on the deterministic prediction of failure (P (F 1) > 0.5). They are comparable to those in the probabilistic forecasts that are based on the classied probability of failure. The spatial occurrence of landsliding (extent) is given as the total area with a safety factor less than unity. Temporal activity (expressed as duration) is dened as the sum of the number of days for each pixel that the safety factor was below unity. The results show that landslide activity is likely to decrease under the CRE and PS scenarios. Particularly the temporal activity of slope failure (see Duration in Figure 7) diminishes. The decrease is more marked for the CRE scenario and should be attributed to the larger evapotranspiration under semi-natural vegetation, which attenuates the hydrological response. In contrast, the predicted aerial extent of landslide occurrences (see Extent in Figure 7) is hardly changed by the altered land use conditions. This implies that the susceptibility is apparently not altered

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but that the temporal sensitivity, due to the decrease in triggering pore pressures, is signicantly reduced. It means also a signicant decrease in sediment supply to the rivers during high storm events and consequently a decrease in silting up of dammed lakes. Such changes in temporal activity that are of direct interest for the indirect hazard and for planning purposes can not be observed from conventional landslide zonation approaches.

7. Discussion and Conclusions The use of physical distributed models for hazard assessment and mitigation planning should not pretend to predict absolute values of landslide occurrence. A considerable parameterisation is needed, as was done for the Alcoy region, and even then calibration is necessary. Calibration and validation are useful to test the modelling concept and to avoid the introduction of artefacts. However in current practice direct acquisition of data from the eld is not always possible due to the high costs involved. Sometimes output data is available like landslide distribution in space and time and river discharges but not the spatial distribution of causing factors. Parameterisation can be obtained also from data stored in archives, which are becoming increasingly available through the Internet. In environmental planning it is not always necessary to give absolute data about impacts and changes of the environment; insight into relative changes is often sufcient. The advantages of the use of physical models are that the processes become transparent and factors are weighed in an appropriate way. Further human impacts creating new situations in the landscape can be simulated. The use of physical models gives a better insight into process interactions and can help to design appropriate measures for mitigation. Statistical modelling delivers also weighted factors. Data collection is easier because one can work with more easily accessible indirect indicators. However, it is it less powerful in handling changes of impact created by new situation in the landscape. The Alcoy region study delivered a good tool for analysing the effect of land use change on landslide susceptibility. However it is not suitable in predicting the development of complex landslides with a complex hydrological system. In addition transfer functions are needed to reduce over estimation of instability. Overestimation is found in many probabilistic studies (Terlien, 1996) and factors other than the shear strength are likely to explain it. In the parameterisation of the physically based models, the estimated soil depth appears to be a crucial factor. It is prone to several sources of error, which are equally applicable in this case. Firstly, the estimated soil cover is supposed to be complete and therefore the area that is liable to failure is over represented in the model. This is particularly true for an area of steep slopes close to the Sierra de Almudaina that has a high probability of failure in the model but consists of bare bedrock in reality. Such barren areas could be

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the signs of exhaustion of the soil by earlier landslides, after which the regolith recovers only slowly. Most of the underestimation of observed landslide density for the lower probabilities of the simulation (lower slope classes) can be attributed to the lateral destabilisation of the slope by prolonged displacement and undercutting. The resulting landslide complexes with plasto-viscous toes that are fed from the upper (steeper) slopes with well-dened slip planes of residual strength cannot be simulated adequately by the innite slope model for rst-time failure. The validity of the model is therefore questionable for this type of landslides. The different land use scenarios did not show spectacular changes in the extent of potential unstable areas. This is due to the bi-modality in the distribution of slope angles; there are only very steep and rather gentle slopes. Most of the current agriculture land is on the gentle slopes, which still proved to be stable under agricultural vegetation cover with low density and moderate evapotranspiration. Most of the steeper slopes were already abandoned and vegetated by rather dense shrubs. The here presented two scenarios show however a signicant decrease in temporal activity of land slipping and consequently a decrease in sediment delivery, silting up and ooding in these catchments. Such changes can be revealed by temporal physically modelling and are of direct interest for environmental hazard assessment and planning. References
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