09-03-12

Geography Project

Kevin Pontonnier L6

Cyclone Nargis Research Project

Cyclone Nargis struck Burma (now called Myanmar since October 2010) on 2 May 2008, killing more than 140 000 people. Nargis was the worst natural disaster to ever hit Burma, causing catastrophic destruction where ever it went. It was reported that 55 000 people went missing and many were found dead in towns and in its outskirts. However, the Burmese government underreported the death toll, causing many allegations towards the Burmese officials stating that they stopped increasing the death toll to minimize political fallout. Death toll never included the secondary deaths, from diseases that struck and the lack of food. The total cost of damage was estimated to be US$10 billion, which made it the most damaging cyclone to ever attack Burma.

Cyclone Nargis is the most deadliest named cyclone ever recorded in the North Indian Ocean Baisin, and won second deadliest named cyclone ever recorded (behind Cyclone Nina in 1975). It also received the ranking of 8th deadliest cyclone (both not named/named cyclones) ever recorded. However, Nargis could possibly be the 7th or even higher most deadly cyclone, because the exact death toll is still remains uncertain. It was the first tropical cyclone to hit Burma since 2006 after cyclone Mala, which was slightly more powerful but had significantly lower impacts. Apparently, according to several Indian officials, India authorities had warned Burma about the incoming Nargis and its possible dangers 48 hours before it made landfall.

09-03-12

Geography Project

Kevin Pontonnier L6

(Refer to fig 4) Its not unusual for a tropical cyclone to form in the northern Indian Ocean during that time of year (May), but Cyclone Nargis will be remembered as one of the regions most deadly storms. When low pressured formed in the Bay of Bengal, in April 27th, conditions were favourable with warm waters and low vertical wind shear that created an area right for development. Eventually this storm exploded in intensity with winds topping 200 km/h. It was obvious that landfall was imminent and it happened on May 2nd in the lower section of Myanmar. The shape and features around the area (topography) is key to why there was so much death and devastation. Storm surge, the leading killer in cyclones and hurricanes around the world, unfortunately set itself up for disaster. With reference to fig 5, you can see numerous inlets (openings) in the delta region; as the water pulls in, it had nowhere to go, but pile high with over 600mm of rain in this area. Another factor was the shallow continental shelf, meaning that the land beneath the sea was shallow. Unfortunately, that allowed the storm surge to build up. If there was a deeper slow (at the delta region), the incline of the slope would have blocked the incoming water. However, in this case, the water just piled up straight into the land, which is known to be quite populated, and the results are really devastating. We can see the flood coming up in the delta region by comparing the left image to the right hand side in fig 5.

09-03-12

Geography Project

Kevin Pontonnier L6

Here is a brief overview on how Nargis formed: (refer to fig 4 for a clearer idea on direction it took). During the last week of April 2008, about 1150km East-Southeast of Chennai, india, an area of deep convection persisted near a low-level circulation in the Bay of Bengal. With favourable conditions, such as warm water and low wind shear, the cyclone started to take shape. On the 27th April, the India Meterological Department (IMD) classified this as a depression. However, they changed this into a deep depression 9 hours later. In addition, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had already classified this depression as a Tropical cyclone 1. It slowly moved North-Nothwest. On the 28th April, the IMD announced the system to be a cyclone, naming it Cyclone Nargis in the process, as it was located only 550km away from Chennai, India. However, that same day, the cyclone worsened, and both JTWC and IMD declared the cyclone to be a sever cyclonicstorm. Cyclone Nargis later on developed a concentric eye feature, with the warm waters under it aiding in further intensification. On the 29th, JTWC estimated that it had reached 160 km/h. It was forcasted that the cyclone head to Bangladesh, but due to a worsening in conditions, the cyclone changed course and was now due towards Burma. The convection had since begun to rebuild. On May 1st, after turning Eastward, Cyclone Nargis began to intensify, due to much more favourable conditions. As it continued to strengthen, it developed a well-defined eye with a diameter of approximately 19 km. The JTWC announced that on May 2nd, the cyclone reached peak winds of 215 km/h.

On May 1, after turning nearly due eastward, Cyclone Nargis began rapidly intensifying, due to greatly improved outflow in association with an approaching upper-level trough.[29] Strengthening continued as it developed a well-defined eye with a diameter of 19 km (12 mi), and early on May 2 the JTWC estimated the cyclone reached peak winds of 215 km/h (135 mph) as it approached the coast of Burma, making it a Category 4 storm.[30] At the same time, the IMD assessed Nargis as attaining peak winds of 165 km/h (105 mph).[31] Around 1200 UTC on May 2, Cyclone Nargis made landfall in the Ayeyarwady Division of Burma at peak strength.[32] The storm gradually weakened as it proceeded east over Burma, with its proximity to the Andaman Sea preventing rapid weakening. Its track turned to the northeast due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough to its northwest, passing just north of Yangon with winds of 130 km/h (80 mph).[33] Early on May 3 the IMD issued its final advisory on the storm.[34] It quickly weakened after turning to the northeast toward the rugged terrain near the BurmaThailand border, and after deteriorating to minimal tropical storm status, the JTWC issued its last advisory on Nargis.[35]