Netwoik mouel foi uictatoiship

ByDarioNocerino823238

Acompositemodel

Duringthiscenturywehadseveralexamplesofdictatorships,theirdevelopment,instaurationand
consequences.Butnotonlyhadthiscenturyshowedthis.Alsoourancestorsdidthesamethingintheir
periods:Caesar,hissonAugustandtheothersuccessoroftheirdynasty.
Studyingthis,acommonthreadcanberevealed.Atthebaseofatotalitarianregimethereiswrong
informationspreadthroughoutthepopulation.
ThemodelIwanttoproposeiscompositeoffeaturesbelongingtodifferentmodelsanditsquitedynamic
alongthetimedimension:severalfactstakeplaceinanoverlappingtrendthatmakesthewholesubjectvery
muchsubtle.ForsimplicityssakeIamgoingtodeveloptheanalysisonadiscretetimeperiodnotona
continuumbase:differentfactwilltakeplaceatsameperiodsdenotesasstages.
Butfirstitisnecessarytomakesomeassumptionsonthepopulationstructureandthesideconcerning
empowermentofthenetwork.

Populationandtheselffeedingnetwork.Dictatorship:riseandfall

Population
Differentpopulationshavedifferentstructures.Butthereisacommonbasicstructurethateverypopulation
shares.Whatwecangenerallyobserveisthatthepopulationcanbedividedinthreedifferentparts:the
greatest,Mass,ismuchbiggerthanthesumoftheothertwoparts,EliteandLegislator.TheLegislatoris
smallerthantheElite,isempoweredbytheMassandtakestheveryimportantdecisionsforthewhole
population.TheEliteisthepartofthepopulationthatisstillempoweredbytheMass,doesnottakedecisions
onbehalfofthepopulationandforit,butisimportantforthediffusionandtransmissionofideasEliteisthe
genericnameforthosethathavethepoweroftransmittingideasandinformation:journalists,writers,artists,
entrepreneursandsoonthathaveahighdegreeofimportanceinsidetheculturalandeconomicdimensionof
thepopulation.
Thusthepopulationstructureisofthistype:
P = H +E +I

1
2
P < H < P onJ E > I

Theedgeslinkingtheindividualsinsidethepopulationcarryacertaindegreeofpowerandforassessinghow
muchofitdothepartofpopulationhaveintheirinsidewestartfromassumingthatallindividualshaveequal
rightsanddutiesfortheState,thustheycanbethoughtasequal.

FirstStage:democraticelectionsandempowermentoftheLegislator
Atthisstageelectionsarecalledforassessingwhohavetoleadthepopulationformakingthesubject
manageablewecanassumethateveryoneinthepopulationhastherighttovoteforwhatis,inhisopinion,the
bestchoice.
Somegetvotedandthevotersgivethemtheirpower.ThosewhogetelectedaretheLegislatorandhavethe
powertotakedecisionthattheythinkarethebestforthepopulation.Someothervotersnotonlyvote,but
advertisethosethattheylikemost;theseareveryimportantinthecontactnetworkbecausetheyhavecontact
withtheMassandcanjustifythepoweroftheLegislator:theyaretheElite.Inthesesensethepowerthe
Legislatorshave,isthesumofthepowertheygetfromthevotersplusthevalueofthelegitimizationthatElite
bringsthatwecallP
L
.
P
L
= P
v
+ P
L

P
v
= H
v
+ E
v
+ C
v

WelookattheC
v
asthatpartofeligibleforlegislationthatproposedthemselvesascandidateandweassume
votedrationallythemselves.
LookhowtheElitehavethepowertofomentpopulation P
L
.Thispowerassaidbeforeistheresultofamass
choice,selectingthoseintheElitebybuyingtheirbook,theirproductsorreadingtheirarticlesonthejournal,
generallyspeakinggivingthemaudience.

SecondStage:theDictatorawarenessandtheselffeedingeffect
Nowwehavetothinkofwhatreallyhappenedinthepastandsometimeshappensnowadays.
OneamongtheLegislator,hastheconsciousnessthatthestructureofthehierarchycanbecompletely
rearrangedandthattherelationshiplinkingthegroups,andthatgiveslifetothepoliticalandsociallifeofthe
State,canberevisitedtomakethepowergoinginhishands.
Howdoesithappen?
First,takeasassumptionthattheElitestronglylegitimizethepoweroftheLegislatorandmostlyofthatone
thatwantstoriseabovetheothers.ThepowertheEliteexertonthepopulationdependshighlyonthepower
itreceivesfromtheMassassaidbefore.IftheoneisawareofthissituationhewillbeveryhappywiththeElite
andwillgivethepossibilitytoit,byusingitsspecialpowerofLegislator,toincreaseitscommunication
capability.
Then,saythattheonespoweroflegislatorallowshimtolowerthepossibilityoftheMasstothinkbyitselfand
toanalyzethescenariowiththerighttoolsforinstance,bygivingfewresourcestoschools,orgiving
incentivetononeducation.
TheEliteincreasedcapabilityandthecutsineducationwillhavetwomainandveryimportanteffects:
ThecreationofanInformationCascade,ifthepoweroftheElitehasincreasedenoughtoreachawide
partoftheMass;andconsequently
AnincreaseintheMasswillingnesstoelecttheoneasleader.
Thesetwoeffectsproduceanincreaseinthepoweroftheonethatisinprocessofbecomingauniquepower
holder,becauseofthecombinedeffectoftheinformationcascadebringingmanyothersintoselectingtheone
asleader,andoftheincreasedMasspower,increasingtherelativepoweroftheonesfollowers.
Oncethisprocesshastakenhold,itallchannelsintoaviciouscirclethatbearswhatcanbecalledaselffeeding
effect,becausenotonlypowergettransferredtoonesole,butpowergetgeneratedbythefomentation
appliedbysomepartofthepopulationonanother.
SomelogicsbringstosaythatthewayinformationisspreadfollowstheepidemicmodeloftheBranching
Process,andthatthecascadingbehaviornotonlydependsonthenumberofpeoplefollowingtheinformation,
butmostlyonthequantityofpowertheinformationcarrierexert.
Forwhatconcernpower,theinternetrankingmodelisusefulforunderstandingthatitfollowsacyclicpathin
thesenseMassElite/Legislator,LegislatorElite/Mass,EliteMass/Legislator.Wesubstitutetothe
Legislatortheoneandrationallyassumethattheineveryroundhekeepsahugepartofthepowerintohis
ownhands,makingtheMassandtheEliteweakerwithrespecttohimandunabletogetagainsthim.
Aquestioncomesnatural:howdoestheoneshowthepower?ApartoftheMassalwaysfeelsveryinvolved
withpoliticsand,mainlyifthepowerexertedbyoneisverystrong,thispartwouldbewillingtodoeverything
hesaysasshownbythedangerousexperimentprofessorRonJonesdidinthe1967withaclassof
sophomoresofaCalifornianhighschool,andpreviouslybytheNaziandFascistcamaraderieinbetweenthe
WorldWarsandwillbeconvincingtotheeyeoftheothersinthepopulationraisingthecascadebehaviorof
information.NowtheonecanbecalledtheDictator.

ThirdStage:Reversal
Inthethirdstagesomeinformationisrevealed;notbecausetheDictatorwantedit,butbecausesomething
happens:someoftheElitehavethepowertoanalyzethesituationandbecomeawareofsomedictators
behaviorsthatareagainstthelawheshouldprotectandenforce.Theystartrevealingitandsomeinthe
populationstarthavingadifferentviewofthehappenings.Therevelationstartsbreakingthecascadeandan
oppositemovementcomestolife.Asmanycomeintotherevelation,therewillbeahighprobabilitythat
clashescomeoffamongfactionsofthepopulation.Thisleadstosomeeffects:
Somepeopleisfomentedwiththedictatorialparty;
Someisfomentedwiththeantidictatorialparty;
Thesightofthetwofactionsbecomesmuchmorestrictmakingimpossiblehavingroomfordialogues
anddeals;
Theclashbecomesmuchbittererandmanypeopledie.
Thislastpointisthekeytosomethingtobeconsideredimportant:thecyclicbehaviorandhatredincreasing
dimensionoftheprocessdescribedabove.
Insomesense,thisistheturningpointofthewholedictatorialsituation.

Butfirst,letsmakeanothernecessaryassumption:thepartisanpartysparticipantsaremuchmorestablein
theirchoicewithrespecttothedictatorialpartysparticipants,becausetheyveseenthecrueltyoranyother
badaspectofthedictatorandastheongoingprocessofclashesamongpeoplegetsinsufferable,atransversal
partofthepopulationbecomesawareofthetruth,andthesamethathappenedbefore,fortheinstauration
ofthedictatorship,happensinanoppositefashion,forwhich,likeapendulumthewholesituationhasthe
possibilitytoreversetalkingofpossibilityisfairerbecausenotalwaysthesituationreverses,indeed
sometimesdifferenttrialsarenecessaryforareversal.

Conclusions

Intheendwehavetonoticeacoupleoffundamentalpoints:whentheinformationcascadeisbrokentheresa
positiveprobabilitythatanotherforms.Andgiventhenewborncascadetheresapositiveprobabilitythatthis
newonedoesntcarrythetruth.Manytimesinhistoryafteradictatorwasdismissedanothergotinpower.
ThestartforareversalprocessisgivenbyasortofcountertrendandtheMasschoicegivesthemajorimpact
onthefinaloutcome.ButonlyaMassthatiseducatedandhasthetoolforanalyzingtheeventscandothe
rightchoice,otherwisewillfallinaninformationcascadeinitiatingaseriesofcatastrophicevents.
Anotherimportantfactisthat,nowadays,thepopulationshouldrememberwhathappenedinthepastby
readinghistorytextbooks,bylookingattheinformationchannelsitisprovidedwithandbydirectwitnessof
parentsandgrandparents,andshouldtrynottorepeatthesamemistakesofthepast.
Itisnecessarytousetheshouldbecausethinkofwhatwouldhappenifaman,withahugequantityof
resourcesandtherightinfluenceonthelegislation,blockstheresourcestoeducationandmakestheElite
willingtosupporthimtothepointinwhichinformationispartialormissing:anotherdictatorshipwouldbe
readytotakeover.