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(~$50k median)
(1) (2)
Annual run rate (ARR) SaaS revenues. ACV = average annual contract value.
Growth Rates
Number of Companies
Wide diversity in GAAP revenue growth rates among participants, with median of 28% growth in 2009 increasing to 34% in 2010E
30
28
25 21 20 16 15 13 19 20
< 0%
45%-60%
> 60%
Number of Companies
Not surprisingly, annual run rate in the dollar value of SaaS deals under contract reveals more robust growth 33% in 2009 to 45% in 2010E
30
25
23 21
24
20 15
18
15
10
11
< 0%
45%-60%
> 60%
62%
60% 40% 20% 0% <$5M $5M - $15M $15M - $25M ARR $25M - $40M >$40M
34% 10%
34% 23%
Median 28%
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% <$5M $5M - $15M $15M - $25M ARR $25M - $40M >$40M
53%
48% 24%
47% 29%
Median 34%
Number of Companies v
Nonetheless, detail reveals some fast growers among the larger companies 11 of 32 companies over $15M in revenue are growing 30%+ annually
0%-15% Growth
Median 62%
15%-30% Growth
Median 34%
30%-45% Growth
Median 10%
45%-60% Growth
Median 34%
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
3 10 3 3 4 1 1 2
7
2 1 1 2 1 5
1 1
5
4 >$40M
$25M - $40M
(1)
Number of Companies v
Companies with average annual contract values of $5k-$25k appear to have the largest concentration of fast growers. Other groups are more evenly split
0%-15% Growth
15%-30% Growth
30%-45% Growth
45%-60% Growth
Median 26%
Median 62%
Median 13%
Median 26%
2 2 10 1 3
4
3 3
6
10
Number of Companies v
Companies employing primarily inside sales strategies (many of whom are in the $5k$25k ACV category) have the highest concentration of very fast growers, though there are clearly pockets of success among other groups
0%-15% Growth
15%-30% Growth
30%-45% Growth
Median 53%
45%-60% Growth
35 30 25 20 15
Median 20%
Median 17%
3 3 2 11
8
3 10 5 0 Internet 3 1 3 4 4 14
4
3 Inside
Primary Mode of Distribution
Field
Other 18%
$5-25K 12%
SMB 18%
$25-100K 58%
Gross Churn
Median 10% >15% 11%
<5% 39%
>$1.00 29%
<$0.50 33%
$0.75-1.00 19%
$0.50-0.75 19%
SMB 33%
Gross Churn
Median 8%
>15% 24%
<5% 40%
$0.75-1.00 34%
$0.50-0.75 12%
Go-to-Market
12
Channel 7%
Inside 35%
Number of Companies in each group: Field = 30; Inside =25; Internet = 12; Channel = 5.
13
As expected, primary mode of distribution is highly correlated with average annual contract value. Nonetheless, there are interesting exceptions and groups on the boundaries for example, Field Sales is used for a number of companies at the low end
Inside
Channel 13% 7% 7%
11%
Number of Companies in each group: <$5k = 7; $5k-$25k = 19; $25k-$100k = 19; >$100k = 15.
14
$18M
23%
$10M
$10M
15%
10%
10% 5% 0% Field Other Field Other
$5M $0M
$1.15
10% 8%
$0.63
6% 4% 2% 0% Field Other
15
Customer acquisition cost metrics, with a median of $0.73, implying a Magic Number over 1.0, appear to be abnormally low. Nonetheless, trends are still directionally interesting
>$2.00
3%
$1.00-$2.00
24%
$0.75-$1.00
22%
Median $0.73
$0.50-$0.75
16%
<$0.50
35%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
% of Companies
Number of Companies in each group: <$0.50 = 24; $0.50-0.75 = 11; $0.75-$1.00 = 15; $1.00-2.00 = 16; >$1.00 = 2.
16
Customer acquisition costs appear to be highest for Inside Sales, and lowest for Internet. Much broader set of customer acquisition cost ratios for Field Sales
<$0.50
$0.50-$0.75
$0.75-$1.00
Median $0.89
$1.00-$2.00
>$2.00
Median $0.43
Median $0.65
100% 17% 29% 80% 8% 17% 60% 38% 40% 58% 20% 21% 0% Internet Inside Primary Mode of Distribution 13%
37%
Field
Number of Companies in each group: Internet = 12; Inside =24; Field = 27.
17
Cost Structure
18
All Companies Gross Margin Op. Expense Margins: Sales & Marketing R&D G&A Op. Profit Margin
No. of Companies
ARR <$5M 84% $5M-$15M 75% $15M-$25M 70% $25M-$40M 70% >$40M 72%
73%
(1)
19
Sources of cost improvements / operating leverage are expected to be derived across the board
2010E Median(1)
Gross Margin Operating Expense Margins: Sales & Marketing R&D G&A Op. Profit Margin
73%
(1)
20
~$50M 68%
~$100M 70%
60%
47%
46%
23%
19%
12%
15%
15%
17%
EBIT Margin
(26%)
(17%)
(1%)
FCF Margin
(13%)
(4%)
5%
Median includes ATHN, CNQR, CTCT, DMAN, KNXA, LOGM, N, OMTR, RNOW, SLRY, CRM, SFSF, TLEO and VOCS. ~$25M median excludes ATHN, CNQR and RNOW. ~$100M median excludes DMAN, LOGM, SLRY and VOCS.
21
As expected, faster growing companies are spending more on sales and marketing as a percentage of revenues than their slower growing peers
45% v
41%
40%
37% 35%
Median
(1)
33%
27%
28%
0% to 15%
15% to 30%
45% to 60%
>60%
(1)
Bar reflects median sales and marketing spend across all companies.
22
23
Billing Terms
>1 Yr. 5% Monthly 31%
1 Yr. 50%
Churn:
Gross: ~8% Net (incl. up-sells): ~2%
24
As expected, contract length is highly correlated with average annual contract value
Month to month 100% 90% Average Contract Length v 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <$5k 29% 29% 29% 14%
1 year 5% 25%
2 to 3 years
3 years or more
84%
60%
43% 38%
14% $100k-$250k
13% >$250k
Number of Companies in each group: <$5k = 7; $5k-$25k = 19; $25k-$100k = 20; $100k-$250k = 7; $250k = 8.
25
Payment terms have less correlation with ACV. A fairly large percentage of companies with high ACVs have monthly payment terms
Quarterly 11%
Qtrly-1 Yr. 5%
Year in Advance
>1 Yr in Advance
25%
13%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <$5k 16% 5% $5k-$25k $25k-$100k Median ACV $100k-$250k >$250k 20% 71% 10% 15% 57% 63%
Number of Companies in each group: <$5k = 7; $5k-$25k = 19; $25k-$100k = 20; $100k-$250k = 7; $250k = 8.
26
Seat count represents the most frequently used metric for pricing, though it accounts for just 50%
Number of Companies in each group: Seats = 30; Usage = 13; Employees = 7; Sites = 2; DB size = 2; Other = 7.
27
Median churn statistics appear overly optimistic, though again provide interesting relative and directional data
12%
10%
(1)
8%
Median 8%
6%
4%
4%
3%
2%
(1)
Gross churn is on a dollar basis and does not include the benefit of upsells.
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No. of Companies with Annual Gross Churn of: <5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% 20-30% >30% Median Gross Churn Median Net Churn(1) # Unit Churn
No. of Companies
Total Group
22 11 13 3 8 2 8% 2% 3%
61
1 2 1 0 1 1 10% 7% 7%
7
6 2 6 1 2 1 11% 3% 9%
19
5 5 6 1 3 0 10% <0% 8%
20
4 1 0 1 1 0 3% <0% 4%
7
6 1 0 0 1 0 1% <0% 2%
8
(1)
29
Field Sales appears to have the lowest churn; Internet and Inside, the highest
12%
11% 10%
8%
6%
5% 4%
4%
2%
30
Capital Efficiency
31
The median company in the group needed or expects to require $24M in capital and 7.5 years to grow to $40M ARR, and became or expects to be cash flow positive when it reaches (or reached) $18M in ARR
32
As expected, most larger companies do not require more capital. Surprisingly, a number of smaller companies also dont expect to require much, if any, either
$1-$10M Req'd
$10-$20M Req'd
>$20M Req'd
3 4 4 1 9 5 6 1
$5-$15M
$25-$40M
>$40M
33
Analysis of Non-Funders
Crossreferencing with growth suggests different attitudes regarding the need to fund growth
$1-$10M Req'd
$10-$20M Req'd
>$20M Req'd
1 3 4 1 4 5 1
3 grew 0-15% 1 grew 45-60% 1 grew >60% 3 grew 0-15% 4 grew 15-30% 1 grew 45-60% 1 grew >60%
$5-$15M
$25-$40M
>$40M
34
$1-$10M Req'd
$10-$20M Req'd
>$20M Req'd
1 2
>$50M
35
Exits
36
63% of respondents believe the M&A exit is likely or highly likely; 22% believe the IPO exit is
70%
63%
60% 50%
40%
30%
22%
20% 10%
37
Exit by IPO
6 likely 1 highly likely
33%
11%
38
26% 17%
0% Larger SaaS Co. -11% -20% Trad'l License Co. -13% Domain Expert -13% Financial Buyer
-40%
39
Overall Group
ARR % with Horizontal SaaS Solution % with SMBs and VSBs Comprising Majority of Revenues
(1) 20 respondents rated SaaS companies their most likely potential buyers.
Overall Group
$15M 38% 0%
(2) 11 respondents rated financial players their most likely potential buyers.
40
Over one-third of respondents expect to pursue buyside M&A over the next 12 months, with 8% looking to do larger transactions
35%
30% 25%
30%
20%
15%
10% 5%
8%
41
$135,300,000
$143,000,000
$53,123,733
$75,000,000
Filed: 3/26/10
$213,900,000
$86,250,000
Withdrawn
$124,085,000
$66,000,000
$94,875,000
$68,827,500
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Questions or Comments?
David E. Spitz
100 Spear Street Suit 800 San Francisco, CA 94105 Tel: 415.442.5191 Cell: 415.308.3383 Fax: 415.947.0862 dspitz@pacificdspitz@pacific-crest.com
About Pacific Crest: Pacific Crest is the leading full-service investment bank exclusively focused on the technology sector. Our top-ranked research group provides thorough coverage of technology industry trends and stocks, and our sales & trading operation is second to none as a go-to resource for institutional tech investors. Pacific Crest's investment banking group complements research, sales & trading with premier advisory and underwriting services to technology companies and investors worldwide. In particular, our software practice is extremely active, advising on many of the landmark transactions in the industry, including public offerings for SuccessFactors, Vocus, and PhaseForward; and M&A transactions with Gomez and Salesforce.com, among others. For more information, see www.pacific-crest.com. Important Disclosures: This document has been prepared by Pacific Crest Securities. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of the information, and that of the opinions based thereon, are not guaranteed. This document is for information purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Pacific Crest Securities and entities and persons associated with it, including its analysts, may have long or short positions or effect transactions in the securities of companies mentioned in this report, and may increase or decrease such holdings without notice. Pacific Crest Securities may make a market in the shares of any such company. These markets may be changed at anytime without notice. Pacific Crest Securities may have acted as lead or co-managing underwriter in ore or more of such companys U.S. equity offerings, and it may perform or seek to perform other investment banking services for any company referenced in this document.
2010
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