Probability & Statistics

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]
Acknowledgement
We at first bow our heads before Allah Almighty, who has bestowed His countless
blessings upon ourselves, guided us towards the way of success, blessed us with the
courage of facing the problems and obstacles and finally enabled us to accomplish this
project work.
We wish to place our deep sense of thanks to our respected teacher Mr. Abid Awan, who
guided us to complete this project in a true sense. His valuable experience and knowledge
of the field removed the difficulty at all crucial junctures.
In the end, we pay our compliments to all those people who had been cooperative to us
during the completion of the project and those who directly or indirectly helped us in
completing our project on time.
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Dedication
We are dedicating our project on the “Fan Industry of Gujrat” to our respected teacher
Mr. Abid Awan for his effort to transfer the essence of his experience and knowledge to
his students.
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S. No
Table of contents Page No
1 Executive Summary 5
2 Objective 6
3 Introduction 7
4 Companies selected 11
5 Profile of Al Jamil Fans 11
6 Profile of Gull Fans 11
7 Profile of Finex Fans 12
8 Raw Data 13
9 Explanation of Raw Data 14
10 Data Analysis 15
11 Excel Work of Al Jamil Fans 16
12 Manual Work of Al Jamil Fans 17
13 Mean + Interpretation 17
14 Median + Interpretation 18
15 Standard Deviation + Interpretation 19
16 Coefficient of Variation + Interpretation 20
17 Skewness + Interpretation 21
18 Mean Deviation About Mean + Interpretation 22
19 Correlation + Interpretation 23
20 Regression + Interpretation 25
21 Excel Work of Gull Fans 28
22 Manual Work of Gull Fans 29
31 Excel Work of Finex Fans 39
32 Manual Work of Finex Fans 40
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41 Table of Comparison 50
42 Comparison Explanation 51
43 Conclusion 54
44 Recommendation(s) 55
Executive summary
This project report is basically related to the fan industry of Gujrat. Gujrat is the city
having a large number of fan manufacturing units and among them we have selected
three fan manufacturing companies for our project. First of all, we have selected two
important variables of these companies for our project and these variables are:
advertisements and sales. The data related to these variables has been collected for each
of the three companies individually. Further various statistical tools including mean,
median, and mode, mean deviation for mean; standard deviation and coefficient of
variation have been applied on both of the variables of each of the three companies. After
that the correlation between these variables has been found and the regression analysis of
these variables is also done. Finally each of the three companies is compared with each
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other on the basis of the results obtained after applying these statistical tools. And in the
end the conclusion of the whole report is given after analyzing the data completely.
Objective
The main objective of performing this project is to enhance our knowledge through
practically applying those statistical techniques that we have been learning throughout the
whole semester. Although we have been studying these techniques in many books but still
we have never applied them practically in the real life, so this project has greatly helped
us to understand the real life situations and applications of the various statistical
techniques and enhanced our knowledge related to this particular field of study.
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Introduction:
Fan is a daily use item. Its utility increases, especially in the summer season. The Fan
Industry is producing about 5 to 6 million fans per annum and meeting successfully the
local as well as the export demand. Out of the total production,
approximately 30 per cent fans consist of pedestals, 7 per cent
brackets and the remaining 63 percent are ceiling fans. The
industry belongs to the light engineering industry category, and is
one of the industries that existed at the time of independence. In
the early 1950s, it was declared as cottage industry and its more than 50 per cent units
still fall in this category.
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The story of emergence of electric fan manufacturing industry in Pakistan is one of those
heroic efforts made by a few enterprising individuals who. Starting with nothing in early
1940s struggled against all odds and turned this concern into a most efficient industry in
Pakistan.
Fan industry is mainly confined to Gujranwala and Gujrat cities of the Punjab province.
The reason for its remaining a cottage industry is that majority of the units does not have
full facilities of production under one roof. They usually give orders to the units having
machines for different parts like fan guards, blade castings, core laminations etc. These
units have lathes, shapers, milling machines, and power pressers, die casting machines
and electroplating equipments. Therefore, most of the units are simply assembling units.
Thus, they do not give brand names to their products.
Besides small and medium units, a few units are quite large and have integrated system
i.e. from motor winding to high-pressure dies casting. These companies have reputed
brand names and the qualities of their products are of international level. These units are
the main players in the export field.
The industry is producing a variety of products in different sizes and designs. The major
products are: ceiling, pedestal, table, table-cum-pedestal fans, circulator fans, wall
bracket, exhaust fans and propellers.
The industry supplies quality products to the local markets, whether branded or
unbranded, at competitive prices. About 400 units have a production capacity of 5 to 6
million fans, on single shift basis. The production is equal to the demand, including a
nominal quantity of exports. The actual production has remained about 2.5 million fans
per annum, showing a 50 per cent idle capacity. The demand for fans is continuously
increasing due to increase in population and speedy migration towards big cities, and for
exports. The other factor is that during the last few years, local demand for quality
products is increasing fast as compared to low price goods. This means people are
becoming quality conscious.
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Major fan producing countries are Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India and China.
Japan is covering high quality market segment of fan market. Korea and Hong Kong are
in middle segment of market while Pakistan, India, Taiwan and China are supplying
comparatively low quality products at cheaper prices.
Exports:
Although fans' exports have great potential, their export is negligible. In 1992-93, only
two-lack fans were exported to only two countries, Iraq and Yemen. But now the industry
is exporting fans to more than 25 countries.
The figures given in table-I indicate that although the exports of ceiling fan increased
from Rs.134 thousand to 209 million rupees, the trade is fluctuating a great deal. As
against ceiling fans, the increase in pedestal fan export is quite stable i.e., continuously
rising.
Pakistan has also started exporting parts of fans. During the last four years, as shown in
table-II, the amount earned from export rose from Rs4.2 million to Rs107 million in
1998-01, but decreased to about fifty per cent the very next year, 2001-02. However, in
spite of big fluctuations, it is believed that if some bottlenecks are removed there is a big
scope for enhancing the export of fans.
Government Role:
The situation is that from very the beginning, the government has not given any
incentives to encourage fan industry i.e. whatever progress the industry made, it has made
on its own resources, and is due to its dedicated and hard working manufacturers and
laborers. In spite of the lack of proper training the industry has innovated and uplifted the
standard to the level where its products can compete in the world markets.
TABLE - I: Exports of fans
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Year Amount in (000 Rs.)

1989-90 134 1,289
1992-93 81,762 1,826
1993-94 18,636 15,137
1998-99 2,552 32,432
1999-00 15,689 66,370
2000-01 59,259 161,554
2001-02 208,963 183,613
TABLE - II
Parts of Fans Exported
Year (Million Rs.)

1998-99 4.2
1999-00 16.6
2000-01 109.7
2001-02 57.5
TABLE - III: Fan Exports by Type (Million Rs.)
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02

Ceiling Fans Rs.2.6 Million Rs.15.7 Million Rs.59.3 Million Rs.208.9 Million
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Pedestal Fans Rs.32.4 Millions Rs.66.4 Million Rs.161.6 Million Rs.183.6 Million
Table Fans Rs.1.1 Million ------------- ------------------ Rs.0.9 Million

Exhaust Fans Rs.0.1 Million Rs.0.1 Million Rs.0.1 Million ----------------
Other Fans Rs.2.9 Million Rs.6.9 Million Rs.5.1 Million Rs.27.2 Million
Fan Blowers Rs.24.9 Million Rs.13.2 Million Rs.0.7Million ----------------
Other Fans N.S Rs.3.0 Million Rs.9.7 Million Rs.5.3 Million Rs.2.0 Million
Total Rs.67 Million Rs.112 Million Rs.232.1 Million Rs.422.6 Million
Companies Selected:
We have selected three fan manufacturing companies for our project and these companies
are:
• Al Jamil Fans
• Gull Fans
• Finex Fans
The data related to these companies has been collected for the two specific variables
which are advertisements and sales. Before going to the next section of the data analysis,
we would first give a brief history or profile of each of the three companies.
Profile of Al Jamil Fans:

Al Jamil Fan industry was established in 1987 and the founder
this industry was Mr. Khalid Javaid, who named the company
after the name of his son Mr. Jamil Javaid. In the beginning this
company had been operated on partnership basis and the name of
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the partner was Mr. Fateh Muhammad but with the passage of time Mr. Khalid Javaid
became a sole proprietor and run the company individually. The company has also got
ISO 9001 quality certificate
Profile of Gull Fans:

This company was established in 1974 and its founder is Sufi
Ghulam Hussain who had also named his company after the name
of his son Gull Pervaiz Butt. The company also produces export
quality fans and also export there products to Dubai and Saudi
Arabia. This company has also got the quality certificate ISO
9001
Profile of Finex Fans:

The company was established in 1994 and its founders name is
Chaudhary Imran Cheema. This company is not a big one and is
comparatively on a lower level as compared to the above two
companies. The present chairman of the company is the brother of
Chaudhary Imran and his name is Chaudhary Nouman Cheema.
This company does not have any quality certificate.
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Raw Data
Al- Jamil Fan Fine X Fan
2005 P.F=1700 C.F=1200 Sales Adver. 2005 P.F=1600 C.F=1150 Sales Adver.
Jan 475 900 1,382,000 6,250 Jan 375 680 1,382,000 5,000
Feb 450 925 1,353,500 6,000 Feb 350 690 1,353,500 4,800
March 500 875 1,378,500 7,000 March 380 670 1,378,500 5,100
April 500 900 1,343,250 7,500 April 340 695 1,343,250 4,300
May 470 900 1,324,250 5,500 May 350 665 1,324,250 4,600
Jun 400 1000 1,379,500 5,000 Jun 395 650 1,379,500 5,200
July 500 925 1,406,000 6,800 July 390 680 1,406,000 5,500
Aug 300 800 1,236,500 4,500 Aug 320 630 1,236,500 4,200
Jan 600 1300 1,927,000 9,000 Jan 435 950 1,927,000 12,000
Feb 550 1300 1,956,000 8,500 Feb 430 980 1,956,000 11,500
March 670 1250 1,994,500 9,100 March 460 970 1,994,500 12,200
April 500 1350 1,910,500 8,300 April 440 930 1,910,500 12,100
May 600 1300 1,921,250 8,900 May 450 925 1,921,250 11,500
Jun 700 1170 1,898,000 9,200 Jun 440 920 1,898,000 12,800
July 480 1100 1,915,000 7,000 July 450 920 1,915,000 11,300
Aug 450 1100 1,784,000 6,700 Aug 395 890 1,784,000 11,000
2007 P.F=1950 C.F=1350 Sales Adver.

2007 P.F=1950 C.F=1400 Sales Adver. Jan 750 1150 3,015,000 15,500
Jan 900 1400 3,015,000 9,500 Feb 770 1100 2,986,500 14,300
Feb 900 1400 2,986,500 9,300 March 745 1130 2,978,250 15,000
March 800 1450 2,978,250 9,000 April 740 1160 3,009,000 15,200
April 600 1500 3,009,000 8,200 May 760 1140 3,021,000 14,700
May 700 1500 3,021,000 9,500 Jun 735 1105 2,925,000 14,500
Jun 700 1500 2,925,000 9,000 July 740 1120 2,955,000 14,800
July 600 1400 2,955,000 7,500 Aug 710 1100 2,869,500 14,000
Aug 550 1250 2,869,500 7,000
Gull Fans
2005 P.F=1600 C.F=1100 Sales Adver.
Jan 650 1200 2,360,000 11,000
Feb 700 1100 2,330,000 9,500
March 600 1150 2,225,000 9,000
April 650 1250 1,479,000 8,500
May 550 1150 2,145,000 9,700
Jun 720 1300 2,582,000 12,000
July 500 1100 2,010,000 10,000
Aug 530 1200 2,168,000 9,800
Jan 1050 1500 3,585,000 16,000 Jan 950 2000 4,605,000 13,500
Feb 1000 1450 3,440,000 14,500 Feb 1000 1800 4,420,000 13,000
March 1100 1500 3,670,000 16,100 March 1050 1900 4,655,000 14,000
April 1020 1470 3,498,000 15,000 April 900 1950 4,440,000 12,500
May 1050 1400 3,465,000 14,300 May 1000 2000 4,700,000 13,200
Jun 1000 1500 3,500,000 14,500 Jun 1100 1700 4,470,000 13,000
July 1100 1500 3,670,000 14,900 July 1000 1980 4,672,000 14,000
Aug 1000 1300 3,260,000 15,500 Aug 950 1780 4,297,000 12,000
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Explanation of Raw Data

Given above is the data of three fan manufacturing companies that are Al Jamil Fans,
Gull Fans and Finex Fans. The data has been collected for 24 months. We have selected
two variables of each of these companies these are:
• Sales
• Advertisements
We will calculate the sales of the fans and the advertising expenditures of these
companies. For calculating the sales, we have chosen two types of fans that are produced
by each of these companies, and these fans are: pedestal and ceiling fans. The price of a
single unit of each of the two fans is multiplied by the number of units sold per month
and it makes the total sales of the fans per month, and finally by adding the sales of each
month we get the overall three year sales of the companies. Same is the case with the
advertising expenditures, for which again we will calculate the overall advertising
expenditure of three years for all these three companies. Finally this data will be analyzed
by using various statistical tools an actual calculations and interpretation of this data is
shown further.
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DATA
ANALYSIS
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Excel Work of Al-Jamil Fans
Sale Advertisement
1,888 6
1,875 6
1,900 7
1,930 8
1,879 6
1,880 5
1,960 7
1,470 5
2,895 9
2,800 9
2,961 9
2,773 8
2,895 9
2,910 9
2,397 7
2,340 7
3,715 10
3,715 9
3,590 9
3,270 8
3,465 10
3,465 9
3,130 8
Sale Advertisement
2,823
Average 7
2,663 8
Median 2,811 8
Mean deviation about 593.02430 1.3046875
mean 6
Standard deviation 689.07258 1.529763586
8
Skewness -0.0453332 -0.522564549
Correlation 0.8861954
9
Coefficients
Intercept -417.7015121
X Variable 1 399.1813025
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Manual Work of Al-Jamil Fans
Mean
In the very first phase we use the average method to analyze the data. Perhaps the most
important measure of location is the mean, which is average value. Mean is taken by all
small and large data values. It is denoted by x.
As average value represent the whole data by taking the sum of all values and further
divide by the total number of values.
Mean of Sales:
x = ∑x/ n
= 63926/24
= 2,663.6
Interpretation:
Here, we got the final value for sale that is 2,663.6. Which tells that average sale of the
fans during last 24 months are 2,663.6 and this value is in thousands.
Mean of advertisements:
x = ∑x/ n
= 187/24
= 7.8
Interpretation:
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The average value for advertisement is 7.8 that are also in thousands. It is representing
the whole data. It represents the amount that the companies spent on their advertisements
in 24 months.
Median
Median is also used to measure the average, the important characteristic of median is that
it s used when there is variation in the data. Median is more appropriate for the data that
has got some outliers. Median is the middle value of the data which is arranged in
ascending order. The median provides the better value than the mean.
Median of Sales:
1,470, 1,875, 1,879, 1,880, 1,887, 1,900, 1,930, 1,960, 2,340, 2,397, 2,773, 2,800, 2,895,
2,895, 2,910, 2,961, 2,823, 3,130, 3,270, 3,465, 3,465, 3,590, 3,715, 3,715,
= (n + 1)th/2
= (24 + 1)th/2
= 12.5th Value
= 12th value + .5 (13th – 12th)
= 2,800 + .5 (2,823 – 2,800)
= 2811.5
Interpretation:
The median in this case is 2811.5 which shows the better measure of the sales of the
company and is a better method of calculating the average.
Median of Advertisements:
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5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10
= (n + 1)th/2
= (24 + 1)th/2
=12.5th Value
=12th value + .5 (13th – 12th)
= 8 + .5 (8 – 8)
=8
Interpretation:
The median in this case is 8 which shows the better measure of the sales of the company
and is a better method of calculating the average.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is measured in the same units as the original data. It is the most
appropriate and reliable method of calculating the dispersion. We use the standard
deviation to bring the values to there actual position that have been made too large by
using variance by squaring the values. So, for this reason we move towards standard
deviation
Standard Deviation of Sales:
=√∑X2/n – (∑X/n)2
= √181193148/24 - (63926/24)2
= √7549714.5 – (2663.6)2
= √7549714.5 – 7,094,764.96
= √454,949.54
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= 674.5
Interpretation:
This value basically shows the variation in the data. The fluctuation of data around the
mean is easily measured through this technique Here the spread in the data is 674.5, if
there is less variation and spread in the data then the data is better. So we can say that the
value of sales can lie between the ranges of 1989.1-3338.1 that is in thousands.
Standard Deviation of Advertisements:
=√∑X2/n – (∑X/n)2
= √1507/24 - (187/24)2
= √62.8 – (7.79)2
= √62.8 – 60.68
= √2.2
= 1.48
Interpretation:
Here the spread in the data is 1.48, if there is less variation and spread in the data then the
data is better. So we can say that the value of advertisements can lie between the ranges
of 6.32 – 9.28 that is in thousands.
Coefficient of Variation
Coefficient of variation is used for the comparison between the two different variables.
This is the relative measure of variation; it measures the standard deviation relative to
mean.
Coefficient of Variation of Sales:
= S/ ҳ X 100
= 674.5/2663.6 X 100
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= 25.322
Interpretation:
The coefficient of variation of sales according to the situation is 25.322 which shows the
per unit risk associated with a given variable. The smaller the CV the less risk involved,
and the greater the CV the high risk involved.
Coefficient of Variation of Advertisements:
= S/ ҳ X 100
= 1.48/7.8 X 100
= 18.97
Interpretation:
The coefficient of variation of advertisements according to the situation is 18.97 which

shows the per unit risk associated with a given variable. The smaller the CV the less risk
involved, and the greater the CV the high risk involved.
Skewness
Skewness is a statistical tool that tells us about whether the given data is normally
distributed or not. If the data is not normally distributed, then it would either be positively
skewed or negatively skewed.
Skewness of Sales:
= 3 (mean – median)/S.D
= 3 (2663.6 – 2847.5)/ 674.5
= - 0.818
Interpretation:
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In this case the value of Skewnesss is -0.818 which clearly shows that the data is
negatively skewed and in case of negative Skewnesss, the mean of the data is the
smallest, median is greater and finally the mode is the greatest one.
Skewness of Advertisements:
= 3 (7.8 – 8)/1.48
= -0.40
Interpretation:
The value of Skewnesss of advertising expenditures is -0.40 which is again negatively
skewed.
Mean Deviation about Mean
Mean deviation tells us about the actual deviation of the data from its arithmetic mean.
One of the drawbacks of this technique is that it ignores all the negative values due to
modulus. So it is not very much reliable.
M.D (mean) of sales:
= ∑|x-x|/n
= 14236/24
= 593.16
Interpretation:
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The value of mean deviation about mean of sales is 593.16 which shows the deviation of
the data from the mean value which shows that the data deviates fro the mean by an
amount of 593.16.
M.D (mean) of Advertisements:
= ∑|x-x|/n
= 29/24
= 1.20
Interpretation:
amount of 1.20.
Correlation
It is basically a descriptive measure of the strength of linear association between two

variables one is independent and the other one is dependent. Values of the correlation
coefficient are always between -1 and +1. A value of +1 indicates that two variables are
perfectly positively related and similarly a value of -1 indicates that two variables are
strongly negatively related. Here we have given a scale of measurement of correlation
between two variables.
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|______________|________________|_______________|______________|
-1 -.5 0 +.5 +1
Perfect -ve Moderate No relation Moderate Perfect +ve
Table
X Y Xy x2 y2
6 1,888
11,328 36 3564544
6 1,875
11,250 36 3515625
7 1,900
13,300 49 3610000
8 1,930
15,440 64 3724900
6 1,879
11,274 36 3530641
5 1,880
9,400 25 3534400
7 1,960
13,720 49 3841600
5 1,470
7,350 25 2160900
9 2,895
26,055 81 8381025
9 2,800
25,200 81 7840000
9 2,961
26,649 81 8767521
8 2,773
22,184 64 7689529
9 2,895
26,055 81 8381025
9 2,910
26,190 81 8468100
7 2,397
16,779 49 5745609
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7 2,340
16,380 49 5475600
10 3,715
37,150 100 13801225
9 3,715
33,435 81 13801225
9 3,590
32,310 81 12888100
8 3,270
26,160 64 10692900
10 3,465
34,650 100 12006225
9 3,465
31,185 81 12006225
8 3,130
25,040 64 9796900
7 2,823
19,761 49 7969329
181193148
187 63926 518,245 1507
N = 24
∑x = 187
∑y = 63926
∑xy = 518245
x2 = 1507
y2 = 181193148
r = n∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ √{n∑x2 – (∑x)2}{n∑y2 – (∑y)2}
= 24(518245) – (187) (63926)/ √{24(1507) – (187)2}{24(181193148) – (63926)2}
= 0.28
Interpretation:
The value of correlation between sale and advertisements of this company is 0.28 which
shows that there exists a weekly positive relation between these two variables.
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Regression Analysis
Regression analysis is basically used to forecast the future. In regression terminology, the
variable being predicted is called the dependent variable. The variable or variables being
used to predict the value of dependent variable called the independent variable. For
example in analyzing the effect of advertising expenditures on sales, a marketing
manager’s desire to predict sales would suggest making sales the dependent variable.
Advertising expenditure would be the independent variable used to help predict sales.
Y = a + bx
b = n ∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ n ∑x2 – (∑x)2
= 403.43
a = ∑y – b∑x/n
= 63926 – 403.43(187)/24
= -479.8
Y = -479.8 + 403.43x
Interpretation:
The regression equation of Al Jamil Fans shows that -479.8 is a fixed value which stays
the same even if the value of b is zero. By changing the number of units or the value of x,
we get different values of y.
Y = -479.8 + 403.43(7)
= -479.8 + 2,824.01
= 2,344.21
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If in x we put 7 the value which we got is 2,344.21. Due to one unit increase in x the
value of y-intercept increase and automatically there is increase in the final value of y
which is the given value of x.
Bar Graph
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
Sales
Series1
2,000
Series2
1,500
1,000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Advertising Expenditure
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Line Graph
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
Sales
Series1
2,000
Series2
1,500
1,000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Excel Gull Fans

Work of
Gull Sales Advertisements
2360 11
Fans 2330 9.5
2225 9
1479 8.5
2145 9.7
2582 12
2010 10
2168 9.8
3585 16
3440 14.5
3670 16.1
3498 15
3465 14.3
3500 14.5
3670 14.9
3260 15.5
4605 13.5
4420 13
4655 14
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4440 12.5
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4700 13.2
4470 13
4672 14
4297 12
Coefficients
Intercept -319.4670732
X Variable 1 292.3509321
Manual Work of Gull Fans
Mean Sales Advertisement

Average 3,402 13
Mean of Median 3,499 13
Sales: Mean Deviation 838.1875 1.940972222
About Mean
= ∑x/ n Skewness -0.27873390 -0.394445995
1
= 81646/24
Coefficient of 38.56 17.83
Variation
= 3,401.9
Standard Deviation 1013.45186 2.322569635
8
Correlation 0.66999274
4
Interpretation:
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Here, we got the final value for sale that is 3,401.9. Which tells that average sale of the
Mean of advertisements:
= ∑x/ n
= 305.5/24
= 12.73
Interpretation:
The average value for advertisement is 12.73 that are also in thousands. It is representing
in 24 months.
Median
Median of Sales:
1,479, 2,010, 2,145, 2,168, 2,225, 2,330, 2,360, 2,582, 3,260, 3,440, 3,465, 3,498, 3,500,
3,585, 3,670, 3,670, 4,297, 4,420, 4,440, 4,470, 4,605, 4,655, 4,672, 4,700,
= (n + 1)th/2
= (24 + 1)th/2
= 12.5th Value
= 12th value + .5 (13th – 12th)
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= 3,498 + .5 (3,500 – 3,498)
= 3,499
Interpretation:
The median in this case is 3,499 which shows the better measure of the sales of the
8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.7, 9.8, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12.5, 13, 13, 13.2, 13.5, 14, 14, 14.3, 14.5, 14.5, 14.9,
15, 15.5, 16, 16.1
=(n + 1)th/2
=(24 + 1)th/2
=12.5th Value
=12th value + .5 (13th – 12th)
= 13 + .5 (13.2 – 13)
= 13.1
Interpretation:
The median in this case is 13.1 which shows the better measure of the advertisements of
the company and is a better method of calculating the average.
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation of Sales:
=√∑X2/n – (∑X/n)2
Innovators
Page30
= √319046621/24 – (81646/24)2
= √13,293,609.21 – (3,401.92)2
= √13,293,609.21 – 11,573,059.69
= √1,720,549.52
= 1,311.7
Interpretation:
Standard Deviation of Advertisements:
=√∑X2/n – (∑X/n)2
= √4012.83/24 – (305.5/24)2
= √167.20 – (12.73)2
= √167.20 – 162.05
= √5.15
= 2.27
Interpretation:
value of sales can lie between the ranges of 10.46-15 that is in thousands.
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Page31
Coefficient of Variation of Sales:
= S/ ҳ X 100
= 1311.7/3401.9 X 100
= 38.56
Interpretation:
Coefficient of Variation of Advertisement
= S/ ҳ X 100
= 2.27/12.73 X 100
= 17.83
Interpretation:

Skewness
Skewness of Sales:
= 3 (3401.9 - 3499)/ 1311.7
= -0.22
Interpretation:
Innovators
Page32
= 3 (12.73 – 13.1)/2.27
= -0.49
Interpretation:
Mean Deviation about mean

= ∑|x-x|/n
= 20116/24
= 838.17
Interpretation:
amount of 838.17.

=∑|x-x|/n
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Page33
=45/24
=1.87
Interpretation:
amount of 1.87.
Correlation
X Y Xy x2 y2
11 2360
25960 121 5569600
9.5 2330
22,135 90.25 5428900
9 2225
20,025 81 4950625
8.5 1479
12,571.5 72.25 2187441
9.7 2145
20,806.5 94.09 4601025
12 2582
30,984 144 6666724
10 2010
20,100 100 4040100
9.8 2168
21,246.4 96.04 4700224
16 3585
57,360 256 12852225
14.5 3440
49,880 210.25 11833600
16.1 3670
59,087 259.21 13468900
15 3498
52,470 225 12236004
14.3 3465
49,549.5 204.49 12006225
Innovators
Page34
14.5 3500
50,750 210.25 12250000
14.9 3670
54,683 222.01 13468900
15.5 3260
50,530 240.25 10627600
13.5 4605
62,167.5 182.25 21206025
13 4420
57,460 169 19536400
14 4655
65,170 196 21669025
12.5 4440
55,500 156.25 19713600
13.2 4700
62,040 174.24 22090000
13 4470
58,110 169 19980900
14 4672
65,408 196 21827584
12 4297
51,564 144 18464209
1075557
305.5 81646 4012.83 319046621
N = 24
∑x = 305.5
∑y = 81646
∑xy = 1075557
X2 = 4012.83
Y2 = 319046621
r = n∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ √{n∑x2 – (∑x)2}{n∑y2 – (∑y)2}
= 24(1075557) – (305.5) (81646)/ √{24(4012.83) – (305.5)2}{24(319046621) –

(81646)2}
= 0.507
Interpretation:
Innovators
Page35
The value of correlation between sales and advertisements of this company is 0.507
which shows that there exists a moderately positive relation between the sales and
advertisements of Gull Fans.
Regression Analysis
Y = a + bx
b = n ∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ n ∑x2 – (∑x)2
= 292.35
a = ∑y – b∑x/n
= 81646 – 292.35(305.5)/24
= -319.46
Y = -319.46 + 292.35x
Interpretation:
The regression equation of Gull Fans shows that -319.46 is a fixed value which stays the
same even if the value of b is zero. By changing the number of units or the value of x, we
get different values of y.
Y = -319.46 + 292.35(9)
= -319.46 + 2,631.15
= 2,311.69
If in x we put 9 the value which we got is 2,311.69. Due to one unit increase in x the
Innovators
Page36
Bar Graph
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
Sales
Series1
2500
Series2
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Line Graph
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
Sales
Series1
2500
Series2
2000
Innovators
1500
Page37
1000
500
0
Excel work of Finex

Finex Fans
Sales (1000s) Advertisements (1000s)

1236 4.2
1343 4.3
1324 4.6
1353 4.8
1382 5
1378 5.1
1379 5.2
1406 5.5
1784 11
1915 11.3
1921 11.5
1956 11.5
1927 12
1910 12.1
1994 12.2
1898 12.8
2869 14
2986 14.3
2925 14.5
3021 14.7
2951 14.8
2978 15
3009 15.2
3015 15.5
Sale Advertisement
Mean 2,078 10
Median 1,918 12
S.D 687.6110503 4.272949546
Skewness 0.37217925 -0.466272
Innovators
Coefficient of 0.32392 0.44263
Page38
Variation
Mean deviation 594.5 3.75
about mean
Co-relation 0.916563558
Coefficients
Intercept 534.3322469
X Variable 1 147.4951257
Manual Work of Finex Fans
Mean
Mean of sales:
= Σx/n
= 49864/24
= 2077.6
Interpretation:
Here, we got the final value for sales that is 2,077.6 which tells that average sale of the
Mean of Advertisements:
=Σx/n
=251.1/24
=10.46
Interpretation:
The average value for advertisements is 10.46 that are also in thousands. It is representing
in 24 months.
Innovators
Page39
Median
Median of sales:
1236,1343,1324,1353,1382,1378,1379,1406,1784,1915,1921,1956,1927,1910,1994,189
8,2869,2925,3021,2951,2978,3009,3015
= (n+1)th/2
= (24+1)th/2
= 12.5th value
= 12th value+0.5(13th-12th)
= 1915+0.5(1921- 1915)
= 1918
Interpretation:
The median in this case is 1918 which shows the better measure of the sales of the
4.2,4.3,4.6,4.8,5,5.1,5.2,5.5,11,11.3,11.5,11.5,12,12.1,12.2,12.8,14,14.3,14.5,14.7,14.8,15
,15.2,15.5
= (n+1)th/n
= (24+1)th/2
= 12.5th value
Innovators
Page40
=12th value+0.5(13th-12th)
=11.5+0.5(12- 11.5)
=11.75
Interpretation:
The median in this case is 11.75 which shows the better measure of the advertisements of
the company and is a better method of calculating the average.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation of sales:
= √Σx2/n- (Σx/n)2
= √(114458756/24)-(2077.5)2
= √4769114.8-4316006.25
= √453108.5
= 673.13
Interpretation:
Innovators
Page41
Standard deviation of Advertisements:
= √Σx2/n- (Σx/n)2
= √(2915.52/24)-(100)
= √121.48-100
= √21.48
= 4.63
Interpretation:
Here the spread in the data is 4.63, if there is less variation and spread in the data then the
data is better. So we can say that the value of advertisements can lie between the ranges
of 5.83-15.09 that is in thousands.
Coefficient of variation of sales:
= S/x X 100
= 673.13/2078
= 0.32393
Interpretation:
Innovators
Page42
Coefficient of variation of Advertisements:
= S/x X 100
= 4.63/10.46
= 0.44263
Interpretation:
Mean Deviation about Mean

= Σ|x-x|/n
= 14271/24
= 594.6
Interpretation:
amount of 594.6.
Innovators
Page43

= Σ|x-x|/n
= 93.7/24
= 3.9
Interpretation:
amount of 594.6.
Skewness
Skewness of sales:
= 3(x-median)/S.D
= 3(2077.6 – 1918)/673.13
= 0.711
Interpretation:
In this case the value of Skewnesss is 0.711 which clearly shows that the data is
positively or rightly skewed and in case of positive Skewnesss, the mean of the data is the
largest, median is smaller then the mean and finally the mode is the smallest.
= 3(x-median)/S.D
= 3(10.46 – 11.75)/4.63
Innovators
Page44
= -0.83
Interpretation:
negatively or left skewed and in case of negative Skewnesss, the mean of the data is the
smallest, median is greater then the mean and finally the mode is the larges
Correlation
X Y Xy x2 y2
5 1382 6910 25 1909924
4.8 1353 6494.4 23.04 1830609
5.1 1378 7027.8 26.01 1898884
4.3 1343 5774.9 18.49 1803649
4.6 1324 6090.4 21.16 1752976
5.2 1379 7170.8 27.04 1901641
5.5 1406 7733 30.25 1976836
4.2 1236 5191.2 17.64 1527696
12 1927 23124 144 3713329
11.5 1956 22494 132.25 3825936
12.2 1994 24326.8 148.84 3976036
12.1 1910 23111 146.41 3648100
Innovators
Page45
11.5 1921 22091.5 132.25 3690241
12.8 1898 24294.4 163.84 3602404
11.3 1915 21639.5 127.69 3667225
11 1784 19624 121 3182656
15.5 3015 46732.5 240.25 9090225
14.3 2986 42699.8 204.49 8916196
15 2978 44670 225 8868484
15.2 3009 45736.8 231.04 9054081
14.7 3021 44408.7 216.09 9126441
14.5 2925 42412.5 210.25 8555625
14.8 2955 43734 219.04 8732025
14 2869 40166 196 8231161
251.1 49860 583658 3047.07 114482380
N = 24
∑x = 251.1
∑y = 49860
∑xy = 583658
X2 = 3047.07
Y2 = 114482380
r = n∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ √{n∑x2 – (∑x)2}{n∑y2 – (∑y)2}
Innovators
Page46
= 24(583658)- (251.1)(49860)/ √{ 24(3047.07)-(251.1)2}{ 24(114482380)-(49860)2
=14007792-12519846/√ (73129.68-63051.21)(2747577120-2486019600)
= 1487946/ √ (10078.47)(261557520)
= 1487946/1623606.9
= 0.916
Interpretation:
The value of correlation between sale and advertisements of this company is 0.916 which
shows that there exists an almost perfectly positive relation between these two variables.
Regression Analysis
Y = a + bx
b = n ∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ n ∑x2 – (∑x)2
= 1487946/10078.47
= 147.64
a = ∑y – b∑x/n
= 49860-147.64(251.1)/24
= 12787.6/24
= 532.82
Y = 532.82+147.64x
Interpretation:
The regression equation of Finex Fans shows that 532.82 is a fixed value which stays the
same even if the value of b is zero. By changing the number of units or the value of x, we
get different values of y.
Innovators
Page47
Y = 532.82 + 147.64(11)
= 532.82 + 1,624.04
= 2,156.86
If in x we put 11 the value which we got is 2156.86. Due to one unit increase in x the
Bar Graph
3500
3000
2500
2000
Sales
Series1
Series2
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Innovators
Page48
Line Graph
3500
3000
2500
2000
Sales
Series1
Series2
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Innovators
Page49
Explanation of comparison
By comparing the data of the three companies selected by us, we have got the following
results:
Mean:
The average sale of Al Jamil Fans for the given period of 24 months is 2663.6, whereas
that of Gull Fans and Finex Fans is 3401.9 and 2077.6 respectively. By looking at this
data we have found that the sales of Gull Fans are more as compared to the other two
companies. Similarly, the average advertising expenditures of Al Jamil Fans is 7.8 and
those of other two companies’ are 12.73 and 10.46 respectively. This data again shows
that the advertising expenditures of Gull Fans are again more then the other two
companies. The sales and advertising expenditures of Gull Fans is more because the
company has more investment and production, so it sales more as compared to the other
companies.
Innovators
Page50
Median:
The median sales of Al Jamil Fans, Gull Fans and Finex Fans are 2847.5, 3499 and 1918.
Again Gull fan has more value as compare to Al Jamil and Finex. Now in the case of
advertisements the median expenditures for Al Jamil fans is 8, for Gull Fan 13.1 and for
Finex 11.75. So the median value of advertising expenditures of Gull fans is more than
other two companies and the reason is again the same because of more production and
investment.
Standard Deviation:
Further by calculating the standard deviation of sales we have got the values of S.D for
these companies as 674.5 for Al Jamil, 1,311.7 for Gull fan and 673.13 for the Finex fans.
By using standard deviation we come to know that how much deviation is there in the
data or in values from there actual values. However for sales the value for Finex is more
reliable because there is less deviation in this value. But this is also clear that the mean of
this company is not more than others. So, for getting the more accurate value further we
calculate the CV.
The standard deviation of advertising expenditures for Al Jamil fans is 1.48, for Gull fans
are 2.27 and for the Finex fan is 4.63. In this scenario Al Jamil fans have less standard
deviation as compared to Gull and Finex. This shows less deviation respectively. But
mean is more for Gull fans from this we didn’t know which is better. For getting the more
accurate value now we calculate the CV.
Coefficient of Variation:
The coefficient of variation of sales of Al Jamil Fans for the 24 months is 25.322,
whereas that of Gull Fans and Finex Fans is 38.56 and 0.323 respectively. By looking at
this data we have found that the per unit risk associated with the companies. According to
these values, Gull Fans is associated with more risk as compared to the other two
companies. The company having less value of CV has got less risk associated so the
Finex Fans Has got less risk and is more reliable among these companies.
Innovators
Page51
Similarly, the coefficient of variation of advertising expenditures for Al Jamil Fans is

18.97 and those of other two companies’ are 17.83 and 0.44236 respectively. This data
again shows that the advertising expenditures of Gull Fans are again more then the other
two companies and again Finex Fans is more reliable.
M.D (mean):
The values of mean deviation about mean of sales for the three companies are 593.16,
838.17 and 594.6 and the values for the mean deviation about mean of the advertising
expenditures for these companies are 1.20, 1.87 and 3.9 respectively.
Correlation:
The correlation values of these companies are 0.28 for Al Jamil Fans, 0.502 for Gull Fans
and 0.916 for Finex Fans which shows that the relation between sales and advertisements
of Al Jamil Fans is weakly positive which shows that the sales of this company depend on
the advertisements but not too much. Similarly the value of 0.502 for Gull Fans shows
that the sales and advertisements of this company have got a moderately strong
relationship. And finally the value of 0.916 for Finex Fans shows that the relationship
between its sales and the advertisements is a strongly positive, which means that the sales
of this company directly depend on the advertisements.
Regression:
The regression equations of the three companies are:
Al Jamil Fans y = - 479.8 + 403.43x
Gull Fans y = - 319.46 + 292.35x
Finex Fans y = 532.8 + 147.64x
The regression equations of all these companies are positive.
Innovators
Page52
Conclusion
After collecting the data from the three fan manufacturing companies and analyzing the
data by applying the statistical tools, we have concluded that the average sales and
advertising expenditure of Gull Fans is more then Al Jamil Fans. The reason is that the
Gull Fans has got a greater market share and has more investment and production as
compared to the other two companies.
Further the correlation between the advertising expenditure and sales is strongly positive
for Finex Fans which means that the sales of this company greatly depend on the
advertising of the company. Gull Fans has got a moderate correlation and Al Jamil Fans
has got a weakly positively positive correlation. So Al Jamil Fans and Finex Fans are a
bit behind Gull fans in case of their sales and advertising expenditures.
Innovators
Page53
Recommendations
• As the sales are directly dependent on the advertising expenditure so all these
three companies, especially Al Jamil Fans and Finex Fans have to work hard for
their advertisements which would then increase their sales.
• These companies should try to bring some innovations in order to attract more
customers.
• New designs should also be introduced in their products.
• Display Centers of all these companies are not much attractive, so they should
work to make their showrooms more attractive.
• These companies have got a manual system of data handling which usually
creates problems, so a computerized system should be introduced.
Innovators
Page54
• The management and staff of these companies is not much educated and qualified,
so the staff should focus on their qualification.
Innovators
Page55

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Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

TABLE - I: Exports of fans

Year Amount in (000 Rs.)

Parts of Fans Exported

Year (Million Rs.)

TABLE - III: Fan Exports by Type (Million Rs.)

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02

Table Fans Rs.1.1 Million ------------- ------------------ Rs.0.9 Million

Fan Blowers Rs.24.9 Million Rs.13.2 Million Rs.0.7Million ----------------

Total Rs.67 Million Rs.112 Million Rs.232.1 Million Rs.422.6 Million

Profile of Al Jamil Fans:

Profile of Gull Fans:

Profile of Finex Fans:

2007 P.F=1950 C.F=1350 Sales Adver.

Explanation of Raw Data

Excel Work of Al-Jamil Fans

Manual Work of Al-Jamil Fans

= 12th value + .5 (13th – 12th)

= 2,800 + .5 (2,823 – 2,800)

=12th value + .5 (13th – 12th)

Standard Deviation of Sales:

Standard Deviation of Advertisements:

Coefficient of Variation of Sales:

Coefficient of Variation of Advertisements:

The coefficient of variation of advertisements according to the situation is 18.97 which

= 3 (2663.6 – 2847.5)/ 674.5

Mean Deviation about Mean

M.D (mean) of sales:

M.D (mean) of Advertisements:

It is basically a descriptive measure of the strength of linear association between two

r = n∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ √{n∑x2 – (∑x)2}{n∑y2 – (∑y)2}

= 24(518245) – (187) (63926)/ √{24(1507) – (187)2}{24(181193148) – (63926)2}

b = n ∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ n ∑x2 – (∑x)2

Excel Gull Fans

Manual Work of Gull Fans

Mean Sales Advertisement

= 12th value + .5 (13th – 12th)

= 3,498 + .5 (3,500 – 3,498)

=12th value + .5 (13th – 12th)

Standard Deviation of Sales:

Standard Deviation of Advertisements:

Coefficient of Variation of Sales:

Coefficient of Variation of Advertisement

The coefficient of variation of advertisements according to the situation is 17.83 which

= 3 (3401.9 - 3499)/ 1311.7

Mean Deviation about mean

M.D (mean) of Advertisements:

r = n∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ √{n∑x2 – (∑x)2}{n∑y2 – (∑y)2}

= 24(1075557) – (305.5) (81646)/ √{24(4012.83) – (305.5)2}{24(319046621) –

b = n ∑xy – (∑x)(∑y)/ n ∑x2 – (∑x)2

Excel work of Finex

Sales (1000s) Advertisements (1000s)

Manual Work of Finex Fans

Standard deviation of sales:

Standard deviation of Advertisements:

Coefficient of variation of Advertisements:

Mean Deviation about Mean

M.D (mean) of Advertisements:

5 1382 6910 25 1909924

4.8 1353 6494.4 23.04 1830609

5.1 1378 7027.8 26.01 1898884

4.3 1343 5774.9 18.49 1803649

4.6 1324 6090.4 21.16 1752976

5.2 1379 7170.8 27.04 1901641

Probability & Statistics

Probability & Statistics