Global Research Sector - Real Estate September 2011

GCC Real Estate Quarterly 2Q11

GCC Real Estate 2Q11

Faisal Hasan, CFA Head of Research fhasan@global.com.kw Tel: (965) 2295-1270 Mostafa El-Maghraby Senior Financial Analyst melmaghraby@global.com.kw Tel: (965) 2295-1279 Khalid W. Al-Osaimi Assistant Financial Analyst kalosaimi@global.com.kw Tel: (965) 2295-1284 Global Investment House www.globalinv.net

Kuwait and Saudi residential markets remain the most attractive Dubai shows signs of stability, Abu Dhabi rates still pressured downwards Commercial property still suffering from oversupply across the GCC

Bahrain Rents remained under pressure in 2Q11 but demand for affordable housing still intact. Oversupply of office and retail space continues to exert a downward pressure on rental and selling rates. Kuwait The private housing segment remained active amounting for 55% of total transactions value in 2Q11, similar to the same share as in 1Q11 with a 19% increase in the number of transactions. The commercial segment continues to suffer from oversupply in all areas with vacancy rates still averaging around 20-25% as in 1Q11. Oman Residential rentals in Oman continued to decline in 2Q11 with industry sources putting the year to date average rental decline at 15%. Apartment monthly rents ranged between OMR350 and OMR750 in 2Q11 down from OMR350 and OMR800 in 1Q11 reflecting the lower demand for higher end properties versus affordable housing. Qatar The residential market in Qatar continued to show signs of stabilization in 2Q11 after a mixed performance in the previous quarter with rental prices still hovering around their 4Q10 levels in most areas with minor changes on both sides. Saudi Arabia The residential segment remains the most lucrative exposure as demand significantly outpaces supply on growing population, business activity and an inherent shortage of residential units. According to SAMAs 2Q11 inflation report, the index for housing rents and related items surged by 7.2% YoY in Saudi Arabia during the quarter after an 8.2% YoY increase in 1Q11. Saudi office market conditions remain feeble especially in Riyadh. UAE Dubai apartment rents decreased 2% in 2Q11 following a 2% decline in 1Q11 over the previous quarter while villa rents maintained their 1Q11 levels without any significant declines after a 1% drop in 4Q10. Selling prices, however, dropped by 3% for Dubai apartments led by Downtown Dubai, which dropped 8% QoQ and DIFC down 7% on new supply. In Abu Dhabi, rents of both apartments and villas declined at a fast pace, negatively affected by new deliveries during the quarter.

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GCC Real Estate Quarterly

Bahrain Real Estate Sector

Latest Developments Bahrains expected real GDP growth is 3.8% on average in 2011-15, according to EIU. The services sector will be hurt in the coming few years of the forecast period due to the lack of confidence caused by the unrest, but high oil prices will offer a support to the economy. Bahrain will continue to suffer from severe oversupply in residential property and in commercial units, leading to a negative outlook on these markets, says Moody's Investors Service. Seef Properties 1H11 net profits registered BHD2.3 mn compared to 1H10 net profits of BHD3.3 mn. 1H11 revenues decreased 31.5% YOY. Net profit in 2Q11 registered BHD870,289 compared to BHD 1,596,573 in 2Q10. Fraser Suites Seef Bahrain reported that occupancy levels have witnessed a steady upward trend the later part of 2Q11, reaching a high of 48% in May.

Market Performance The performance of Bahrain office market in 2Q11 was similar to that in 1Q11 and 4Q10 as the country still suffers from the oversupply of Grade A and Grade B office space. Rents remained under pressure in 2Q11 as a result of the political instability that hit the country in 1Q1. Average office occupancy rates is estimated to range between 60% and 70%, with approximately 300,000 sqm of built stock vacant in addition to 200,000 sqm of leasable space under construction, of which approximately 40,000 sqm will come in Diplomat City Tower and Dar II, which will come on stream at the end of 2011. The retail market is also oversupplied and is expected to worsen in 2011 given the current turmoil and the associated slowdown in spending. On the long term, the 450,000 sqm scheduled for delivery by 2015 will pressure yields downwards but several cancellations are expected given the current market oversupply situation. The residential market similarly suffered from falling prices and rents as new supply continues to hit the market in areas such as Juffair, Seef and Sanabis. All three areas saw rents falling in 2Q11. On the other hand, the large pent-up demand for affordable housing is still persistent. This has prompted the government to take measures such as the launch of the new housing scheme worth BHD2.5 billion launched in 1Q11 along with plans to construct 50,000 social housing units, to be completed over the next three years.
Residential Sales Rates 1Q11 - 2Q11
1200

Bahrain Commercial Rents 1Q11 - 2Q11

9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

1000 800
BHD/sqm

880

1000 900

8.6 8.3 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.1

4.5 4.5

740 730

600 400

200
0
Amwaj

Juffair

Sanabis

Seef

BHD/sqm/month

710

800

620

Source: Cluttons

1Q11

2Q11

1Q11
Source: Cluttons

2Q11

September - 2011

Diplomatic Area

Financial Harbor

Central Manama

Seef District

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GCC Real Estate Quarterly

Kuwait Real Estate Sector

Latest Developments The director of the Real Estate Department at the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) announced the creation of an executive committee for the portfolio Real Estate Investment Authority. Abyaar Real Estate Company reduced its debt by KD21 mn (USD77.1 mn), or 23%, to KD69.8 mn in 1H11. The companys AGM approved a capital increase from KD105.5 mn to KD110.7 mn at a nominal value of 100 fils per share (par). Abyaars 1H11 profits came in at KD1.7 mn compared to 1H10 losses of KD2.4 mn. Al Mazaya Holding reported 1H11 net losses of KD3.1 mn compared to 1H10 net profits of KD2.6 mn. On a different note, the company expects to reach an agreement with local banks by the end of the year to reschedule KD20 mn (USD72.8 mn) of its debt. Mabanee reported 1H11 net profit of KD11.6 mn up 11.5% from 1H10 profits of KD 10.4 mn. 2Q11 net profit registered KD5.8 mn compared to KD5.1mn in 2Q10. Salhia Real Estate Company 1H11 earnings registered KD3.6 mn compared to KD6.5 mn in 1H10.

Market Performance The residential segment maintained its position as the most buyout segment in Kuwaits reality market. The private housing segment remained active amounting for 55% of total transactions value in 2Q11, similar to the same share as in 1Q11 with a 19% increase in the number of transactions. The increase was associated with a significant 52% increase in transaction value at KD527 million up from KD347 million in 1Q11. The overall trend remains in favor of strong demand for residential housing by Kuwaiti nationals. The investment segment share of total transactions dropped from an active 39% in 1Q11 to 34% in 2Q11 despite of the increase of the number of transactions 28% QoQ to 488 up from 381 in 1Q11. The value of transactions also increased 21% QoQ to KD329 million up from KD271 million. Demand for investment buildings remains buyout with occupancy rates registering healthy levels averaging between 90-95%. The commercial segment continues to suffer from oversupply in all areas with vacancy rates still averaging around 20-25% as in 1Q11. However, selling prices for some selective commercial space continued to report minor increases in prices during the quarter as a result of increasing demand after several slow quarters. The number of transactions increased 88% in 2Q11 over 1Q11.
Kuwait Average Land Prices 1Q11-2Q11
700

Breakdown of transactions by Segement 2Q11

Commercial, 10.4%
Other, 0.1%

600
500
KWD/sqm

400

300
200 100 0
Capital Hawally Jahra Ahmadi Farwaniya

Investment, 34.3%

Residential, 55.1%

1Q11

2Q11
Source: Ministry of Justice

Source: Ministry of Justice & Global Database

September - 2011

Global Research - GCC

GCC Real Estate Quarterly

Oman Real Estate Sector

Latest Developments Omans real GDP is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2011 as oil production increased substantially. Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate at an average of 4.8%, driven by a rise in oil production over the coming five years. Omans Eighth Five-Year Plan has allocated around 37.7% of its total budget for infrastructure development. Sahara Hospitality reported 1H11 net earnings of OMR824,000 in line with the same figure registered in the comparable period. Revenues also remained unchanged YOY.

Market Performance Residential rentals in Oman continued to decline in 2Q11. Industry sources put the year to date average rental decline at 15%. Apartment monthly rents ranged between OMR350 and OMR750 in 2Q11 down from OMR350 and OMR800 in 1Q11 reflecting the lower demand for higher end properties versus affordable housing. Areas such as Bowsher and Mawaleh have seen increased demand due to lower prices while villa rents in The Wave and Muscat Hills remained in demand due to their higher quality. We still expect prices and rents to continue in a pattern of gradual decline throughout 2011, although the pace of decline appears to have slowed down. Rents in the office market continued to witness a declining trend as demand softens significantly following the pattern that started since 2008. Supply of grade A office space still lags behind that of lower grades and is renting at a significant premium that could reach up to 33%. An additional 158,000 sqm of grade A space is currently in the pipelines and is expected to be delivered over the upcoming year.

September - 2011

Global Research - GCC

GCC Real Estate Quarterly

Qatar Real Estate Sector

Latest Developments Barwa Real Estate Company 1H11 net profits came in at QAR752.5 mn up 51% from the QAR498.5 reported in 1H10. Ezdan Real Estate 1H11 net profits registered QAR103.6 mn compared to 1H10 earnings of QAR117.3 mn. Revenues for 1H11 decreased 11.6% YOY. The Westminster City Council has given its final approval of the master plan presented by Qatari Diar Real Estate Company for the GBP3 bn Chelsea Barracks project that it intends to implement in London. Al Jaber & Partners (AJP) is nearing completion on the QAR1.8 bn Lusail City Development Project. AJP has worked on Lusail's Primary Infrastructure Works Construction Package 2 (CP2). The Lusail project started in May 2008 and is on schedule to complete after taking 43 months.

Market Performance The residential market in Qatar continued to show signs of stabilization in 2Q11 after a mixed performance in the previous quarter with rental prices still hovering around their 4Q10 levels in most areas with minor changes on both sides. Areas like Pearl Qatar are witnessing strong leasing activity with the delay of new handovers contributing significantly to rental price stability. The villa rental market followed a similar pattern with prices in most areas unchanged from 1Q11 except for a minor change in Al Dafna. Activity in the sales market is still muted due to the large disparity between buyer and seller quoted prices. As new projects are being delivered adding to the commercial stock, the amount of office space in the market remains abundant and is unmet by the slowing demand. Total office space in Doha is currently estimated at around 3.2 million sqm, and it is estimated that 30 high rise office towers are currently under construction in the Central Business District. Average monthly rents during 2Q11 dropped 3% from 1Q11 levels after a slight improvement in the previous quarter. We expect rents in the commercial segment to continue moving downwards over the medium term as new supply enters the market adding to the already existent vacancies.
Average 2 BR Apartment Rental Rates
14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000
Al Sadd Najma Al Dafna Bin Omran Pearl Qatar

Average 4 BR Villa Rental Rates

22,000 20,000
QAR/month

QAR/month

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000

Al Dafna Al Waab West Bay Al Gharrafa Al Khraytiyat

1Q11
Source: ASTECO & Global Database

2Q11

1Q11
Source: ASTECO & Global Database

2Q11

September - 2011

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GCC Real Estate Quarterly

Saudi Arabia Real Estate Sector

Latest Developments Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Company reported 1H11 Earnings of SAR570.8 mn compared to SAR835.6 mn in 1H10. On quarterly basis, the company reported earnings of SAR297.8 mn for 2Q11 compared to earnings of SAR437 mn 2Q10. Standard & Poor's credit rating agency, after a recent review, reaffirmed its long-term corporate rating at BB-, with a stable outlook on Dar Al-Arkan Real Estate Company. Arriyadh Development Company reported 1H11 net profit of SAR61.4 mn compared to SAR49.3 mn in 1H10. 2Q11 net profit increased 24% to SAR32.8 mn compared SAR26.5 mn in 2Q10. Emaar the Economic City 1H11 net profit stood at SAR73.9 mn compared to a net loss of SAR181.9 mn in the comparable period. 2Q11 net profits registered SAR87.6 mn compared to a net loss of SAR128.4 mn in 2Q10. Saudi Real Estate Company (AKARIA) reported 1H11 earnings of AED55.3 mn up 66.1% from the SAR33.2 reported in 1H10. 2Q11 net profit came in at SAR25.1 mn as compared to SAR2.5 mn in 2Q10. Taiba Holding Company reported a net profit of SAR71.1 mn in 1H11 compared to SAR30.9 mn in 1H10. The company reported a 95% increase in 2Q11 profits at SAR32.2 mn up from SAR16.5 mn in 2Q10. The use of land in Riyadh for recreational facilities and gardens has increased by 60 percent in the last six years, according to a study conducted by the Arriyadh Development Authority (ADA). The study showed that housing accounted for the most use of land (29 percent), followed by commercial, business and services (21 percent), agriculture and resources (19 percent).

Market Performance The office market performance continues to be pressured downwards by new supply and low take up rates in the two major markets of Riyadh and Jeddah. Vacancy rates remain at an average of 5% in Jeddah, where the market suffers from undersupply of grade A over the past few years, and 15% in Riyadh, which suffers from significant oversupply in the office market. The residential segment remains the most lucrative exposure as demand significantly outpaces supply on growing population, business activity and an inherent shortage of residential units. According to SAMAs 2Q11 inflation report, the index for housing rents and related items surged by 7.2% YoY in Saudi Arabia during the quarter after an 8.2% YoY increase in 1Q11.

September - 2011

Global Research - GCC

Riyadh Office Supply 2010-2013
4,500
4,000 3,500
sqm 000

GCC Real Estate Quarterly

Jeddah Office Supply 2010-2013
800
525 420
sqm 000

700 600

58 115

3,000
2,500 2,000 1,500 3,000

210

500
400 300

163

3,630
3,000 3,210

667

552
389 389

1,000
500 -

200
100 -

2010

2011 Completed

2012 New

2013

2010

2011 Completed

2012 New

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Riyadh Average Villa Selling Prices

4,000

Jeddah Average Villa Selling Prices

7,000 3,350

3,500
3,000

6,100 6,000
5,000

3,000 2,500
SAR/sqm

2,400

2,400
SAR/sqm

4,100 4,000

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

North South East West

3,100 3,000
2,000 1,000

0
West
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Nortrh

North-East

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Riyadh Retail Supply 2010-2013

1,300 1,250 1,200
sqm 000

Jeddah Retail Supply 2010-2013

1,200 1,000

61
sqm 000

101
800 86 600 400 641 641 200 857 727 130

1,150 110 1,100 1,050 1,000 30 1,183 1,073

1,043
950 900 2010

1,043

2011 Completed

2012 New

2013

2010

2011 Completed

2012 New

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

September - 2011

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GCC Real Estate Quarterly

UAE Real Estate Sector

Latest Developments Aldar Properties reported 1H11 net profit of AED316.4 mn compared to a net loss of AED789.5 mn in 1H10. 2Q11 profits came in at AED127.3 mn compared to losses of AED475.3 in 2Q10. Emaar Properties 1H11 net profits registered AED670.5 mn down from AED1,562.5 mn in 1H10. Emaar wrote off its total stake of 30% in Dubai Bank during the second quarter. Sorouh Real Estate 1H11 net profits came in at AED174.7 mn compared to 1H10 earnings of AED 160,594,000. Sorouh posted a 266% rise in 2Q11 profits at AED110.4 mn on the handover of properties in the Sun and Sky towers. Union Properties 1H11 net loss widened to AED438.6 mn compared to 1H10 net loss of AED299.1 mn. RAK Properties 1H11 net profit came in at AED68.7 mn down 28.6% from the AED96.2 mn registered in 1H10. The company announced it started the handover of RAK Tower at Marina Square on Al Reem Island in Abu Dhabi. Deyaar Properties reported 1H11 earnings of AED44.4 mn compared to 1H10 losses of AED343.3 mn. Management also announced that it has not cancelled plans to launch its AED500 mn distress fund and may revive it when the "time is opportune".

Market Performance Dubai apartment rents decreased 2% in 2Q11 following a 2% decline in 1Q11 over the previous quarter while villa rents maintained their 1Q11 levels without any significant declines after a 1% drop in 4Q10. Selling prices, however, dropped by 3% for Dubai apartments led by Downtown Dubai, which dropped 8% QoQ and DIFC down 7% on new supply. Villa selling prices in established areas with average sizes across Dubai maintained their levels of the past two quarters while villas of larger size and/or new supply entering the market have dropped by 3-5% in 2Q11. In Abu Dhabi, rents of both apartments and villas declined at a fast pace, negatively affected by new deliveries during the quarter. Apartment rents dropped another 8% in 2Q11, same as 1Q11 compared to 7% in 4Q10 while villa rents dropped modestly on selective demand for ready to move in properties. The office market remains under pressure in both markets on the back of relentless oversupply and feeble business demand. In Dubai, office rents dropped 6% over the previous quarter led by Dubai Investment Park down 15% and JLT down 12%.City wide vacancy rates remained at around 45%. Average rents dropped around 2% after dropping 10% in 1Q11. In Abu Dhabi, office rents dropped 4% after 9% in 1Q11 with Grades B and C continuing their underperformance as tenants upgrade to better office space at affordable prices while selling prices moved down 3%. No new addition to Dubai retail space took place after the 530,000 sqf new supply in 1Q11 in and around DIFC. Vacancy rates citywide remained around 20% on average while rental values maintained 1Q11 after dropping 9% in the previous quarter. Abu Dhabi didnt witness any change in the retail segment as grade A supply remained limited with no additions in 2Q11 and accordingly vacancy rates are still low. Occupancy rates are higher in scattered retail outlets attached to older buildings in residential areas. Rents are expected to soften, however, as of 2H11 on new supply entering the market.

September - 2011

Global Research - GCC

Average Dubai Office Rents 250 195 200 150 100 50 0 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
Source: Industry Sources & Global Database

GCC Real Estate Quarterly

Average Abu Dhabi Grade A Office Rents 210

204

204

190
150

200

AED/Sqf

AED/Sqf

136

190

186
177 172

129

180 170 160 150 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle & Global Database

Average Dubai Residential Selling Prices

2,500
2,000 1,975
AED/sqf

1,500
1,000 500 0 4Q10 Apt. 1Q11 Villa 2Q11

1,075

1,075

1,044

AED/sqf

1,975

1,917

Average Abu Dhabi Residential Selling Prices 5,000 4,500 4,750 4,750 4,703 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,200 1,175 1,135 500 0 4Q10 Apt. 1Q11 Villa 2Q11

Source: ASTECO & Global Database

Source: ASTECO & Global Database

Average UAE 2-bedroom rents by emirate

120 100 82 80
AED 000

105 96

73

60 40 20 0
Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Ajman Ras AlKhaimah Fujairah Umm AlQaiwain

31 31

28 27

31 31

30 30

27 27

1Q11
Source: ASTECO

2Q11

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Market Cap USD mn
UAE Aldar Properties Deyaar Holding Emaar Properties Rak Properties Sorouh Real Estate Union Properties Kuwait Abyaar Real Estate Al Mazaya Holding Injazzat Real Estate Mabanee National Real Estate Salhia Real Estate Commercial Real Estate United Real Estate Saudi Arabia Dar Al Arkan Arriyadh Development Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Taiba Holding Qatar Barwa Real Estate Ezdan Real Estate Bahrain Seef Properties Oman Sahara Hospitality 35,599 13,708 2.168 5.96 109 41 0.089 (10.53) 3,174 16,134 11,557 58,753 29.70 22.15 26.16 (0.65) (1.80) (24.84) 1,872 369 1,519 726 682 7,020 1,385 5,695 2,724 2,558 6.50 13.85 6.70 22.70 17.05 10.86 9.66 6.98 9.42 14.38 7.78 6.00 (2.82) (6.87) 13.27 97 157 118 1,629 194 381 478 370 26 43 32 445 53 104 130 101 25.00 66.00 93.00 800.00 65.00 208.00 71.00 85.00 12.07 1.96 (13.00) 8.70 (1.92) 10.29 (3.53) (7.14) (13.33) (14.71) (8.54) (30.12) (12.07) (6.25) (16.33) 981 433 4,710 191 858 344 3,602 1,589 17,299 700 3,150 1,263 1.25 0.28 2.84 0.35 1.20 0.38 6.34 (2.52) 19.48 8.57 19.81 3.55 (32.89) (21.89) (7.80) (13.64) (21.60) (20.00)

GCC Real Estate Quarterly

Market Cap LC mn Current Price LC 1M Absolute 3M 12M 52 weeks High Low

(67.44) (52.65) (19.44) (30.91) (50.00) (42.75)

4.69 0.50 4.14 0.56 2.54 0.51

1.27 0.21 2.41 0.34 0.99 0.25

(40.91) (27.78) (29.84) 11.94 (44.76) 0.35 (24.29) (4.65)

57.00 146.00 142.00 809.09 214.00 277.97 99.07 108.00

22.00 79.00 68.00 490.91 97.00 220.49 62.00 70.00

(25.83) 23.55 (30.30) (2.63) 3.86

14.40 16.40 9.90 26.80 17.50

7.40 12.85 5.65 21.00 14.45

11.42 (34.84)

40.50 36.70

27.40 21.84

(25.64)

0.14

0.10

5.96

2.35

2.35

All current prices are in local currency based on September 4th 2011 close unless otherwise mentioned. Source: Bloomberg

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GCC Real Estate Quarterly

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