1.12.

The scenarios method

The increasing amount of uncertainties involved in long-term forecasting planning make the scenarios method attractive to forecasters. The word scenario, meaning a sketch, outline of description of an imagined situation or sequence of events, was first introduced as a means of forecasting into the future by Khan and Weiner in their book called The Year 2000. The approach accepts that the future is multiple and that several potential futures are possible ; the path leading to any specific future is not necessarily unique. The description of a potential future and the progression toward it comprises a scenario. The scenarios method specifically tries to conceive all possible futures and to explore the path leading to them in order to clarify present actions and their possible consequences. The method comprises two phases: the construction of a database and on this basis, the setting of scenarios that lead to the generation of forecasts. By taking the different scenarios into account, the consequence of previously decide options or strategies can be evaluated and, with the aid of multiple criteria methods, the priority strategic actions to be taken in order to exploit the expected changes can be deduced, thus helping to devise the strategic plan. There is also a recognition that even though scenarios may not always be much better than computer models they are also no worse, so nothing extra is gained from building a models that can be very complex and expensive. The great advantage of scenario analysis is that the construction of a scenario is not constrained in the possibilities that can be considered. Models, on the many of these models have difficulties in allowing for more efficient appliances, new appliances and a great awareness of possibilities for energy conservation. Scenarios can consider futures in which consumers behave in different ways to the present, e.g. society may become more energy conscious and so on. The unrestricted nature of scenarios analysis makes it difficult to be substantiated. Many different scenarios may appear plausible, but it is difficult to decide which ones are the most likely. It is difficult to evaluate the judgements and estimate probabilities of the scenarios occurring Studies using scenario analysis should present clearly and explicitly the models used to construct the scenarios, allowing readers to take their own view about the probabilities of the scenarios occurring. As scenarios analysis typically gives a detailed description of different possible future, this can be a difficult requirement. Also the use of scenario analysis can be expensive as the analysis often works at a fine level of detail. The consideration of a range of possible scenarios adds to the expense of the analysis. In conclusion, scenario analysis can be useful in considering the uncertainties and the future developments associated with the future electricity demand. Although some improvement are still needed in order to be really useful in