2012

UniversityofSydney ZorbaParer StudentID306218259

[REVISIONINGTHESTATUS QUOCHINA]
Revision;Thelifecycleofworldorderforanother,drivenbyaStatesdesireforcontrolofSecurity.

[WIKIPEDIA
3,336 words (not including footnotes/references/text boxes).
AStatusQuoPower:StatusQuoStateisa termfromPowerTransitionTheorywithin thewiderfieldofInternationalRelations.It

IsChinaprimarilyastatusquoorrevisionistpower?

isusedtodescribestates,thatunlike RevisionistStatesseetheinternational systemofstates,internationallawand oftenevenfreemarketeconomicsas integralaspectsoftheinternational spectrumthatshouldbeupheld. ARevisionistPower:RevisionistStateisa termfromPowerTransitionTheorywithin thewiderfieldofInternationalRelations.It isusedtodescribestates,thatunlike StatusQuoStates,seeaninherentinjustice intheinternationalsystemofstates,within internationallawandsometimesalsofree marketeconomics.

Generally,thereisadirectcorrelation betweenastateshegemony,bothpolitical andeconomicanditsstandingaseithera StatusQuoStateoraRevisionistState. Powerfulandinfluentialnationsin InternationalRelationssuchastheUnited States,Britain,Franceandothernations likeJapanwhohavebenefitedfrom westernliberalism,arelikelytofallunder thecategoryofStatusQuoStateswhile NorthKorea,Iranandothernations dissatisfiedwiththeirplaceonthe internationalspectrumareoften consideredRevisionistStates.

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 Overview

Revisionism has origins with the European Powers; Imperial Germany (WWI) and Imperial Japan (WWII) held as clear examples of Revisionists. Events in Fiji have Australian thinkers reconsidering the current Pacific status quo1. A growing China, and an increased Chinese diplomatic and aid presence within the Pacific Island States, the region appears set for a rerun of cold war tensions as power transitions occur within the region. Alan Johnston2 uses Hans Morgenthaus definition of status quo The policy of the status quo aims at the maintenance of the distribution of power as it exists at a particular moment in history." A status quo policy is opposed to any "reversal of the power relations among two or more nations, reducing, for instance, A from a first rate to a second rate power and raising B to the eminent position A formerly held." Minor adjustments, however, "which leave intact the relative power positions of the nations concerned are fully compatible with a policy of the status quo." China and its State behaviour are changing, with evidence showing a growing academic and intellectual engagement with the outside world, supporting the burgeoning Chinese economy. China has used the international institutions of the west, where it is helpful, and China has lent its strength via soft money loans to its periphery, and beyond. China has an evolving understanding of international relations3 and law4, and has long succeeded to a variety of

Hoadley, S., 2005, Pacific Island security management by NZ and Aus - Towards a new Paradigm Working paper No. 20/05 Centre for Strategic Studies Victoria University of Wellington
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Johnston, AI, 2003, Is China a Status Quo Power? MIT International Security, Vol. 27, No. 4 (Spring, 2003), pp. 5-56

Yaqing Qin, Development of International Relations theory in China:progress through debates China Foreign Affairs University
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Mushkat, R, 2011, State Reputation and Compliance with International Law: Looking through a Chinese Lens, Chinese Journal of International Law (2011), 703737

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 international commitments. As China grows, new ideas are emerging from China regarding international relations5. The cold war left South East Asia war weary. Nations of ASEAN have serious engagement in economic issues which now allows the neighbours to move past their previous military conflict, under an umbrella of Pax Americana. USA military supremacy in the pacific maritime environment has not been seriously threatened by any power, and it looks likely to maintain a strong presence in the Pacific6. Chinese engagement and participation with the UN, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Trade Organisation (WTO), G-20, and other western founded institutions, shows a status quo power making minor adjustments to the overall system. Whereas Chinese claims over islands in the South China Sea, the replacement of Japan and Taiwan as the economic leaders in the region, increased aid spending7, and the creation of new regional bodies to support Chinese goals, show signs of revisionism. Some scholars suggest that the Chinese treaty status with the UN8 reflects a desire to maintain the status quo under the five rule system started with India. This in conjunction with Chinese consensus building, suggests a status quo approach by the Chinese. Other power balancing action via soft money loans and the establishment of new regional forums, shows a China willing to back other moves outside of the status quo institutions. This is not dissimilar to moves made by the USA and other States, which ought not immediately flag China as an Imperial Revisionist.
Lynch, D. 2009, Chinese Thinking on the Future of International Relations: Realism as the Ti, Rationalism as the Yong? The China Quarterly, 197, March 2009, pp. 87107 Steinburg , J.B, The Administrations Perspective on US China Relations in Asia US China Relations: Asian Perspectives Edited by Douglas Spelman, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. pp 5-13. Smith, G., 2012 Are Chinese soft loans always a bad thing? Online resource, Lowy Interpreter http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/03/29/Are-Chinese-soft-loans-always-a-bad-thing.aspx
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Mushkat, R, 2011, State Reputation and Compliance with International Law: Looking through a Chinese Lens, Chinese Journal of International Law (2011), 703737

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 The permissive nature of law on the international plane supports this action by China, and China is one of the strongest advocates for the institution of State autonomy, so we see at another level the Chinese supporting the status quo. China shows no signs of support for a revision of customary international laws regarding non-interference being led under the Responsibility to Protect9 (RtoP) movement, while supporting normative efforts to intervene with UN Security Council authority. In regard to areas bordering on China, the Chinese government have shown a willingness to revise current hierarchies, either through force or other forms of coercion. The Tibetans would surely claim that the regional international order has been revised by China. By couching their claim on Tibet in terms of long standing sovereign claims, again relies upon the State non-interference rules, invading as Germany did to Austria at the beginning of WWII. However if Tibet is an independent sovereign state, generally recognised by the international community; then this ought to bring to bear a responsibility to protect, rather than an acceptance of Chinese claims. This precedent of international behaviour suggests that Taiwan might receive a cold reception if there is a call to arms against China. Whether intentioned or nought, the growing presence from Beijing is having an effect on the surrounding systems. This growth is leading state behaviour; some accommodating band wagoning and others military hedging. Growth of US military presence10 around the Pacific has been increased with the Pivot Strategy well in train.

Tiewa, L., 2012 China and Responsibility to Protect: Maintenance and Change of Its Policy for Intervention The Pacific Review, 25:1, 153-173 10 Medcalf, R. 2011, Obama in Australia: Balancing not Containment, Online Resource, China-US Focus, http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/obama-in-australia-balancing-not-containment/

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 Is China PRIMARILY a Status Quo or Revisionist Power China as a State exhibits both revisionism11 and status quo12 behaviours, and so the question is rightly posed towards which element has primacy status. A literary search on the subject shows at least two papers on the issue, and significant material on the question throughout other authoritative texts. Prominent US thinker, Alastair Iain Johnston and Chinese native Feng Huiyun, examine the question from a variety of angles. The question of whether China is one or the other type of State, in some ways assumes a coherent voice from a Monolithic Chinese government, while reality plays out more subtle consensus building within complex institutional interactions13. To ask whether China is revisionist or status quo might be more easily understood if a clear China grand strategy existed. So in some ways this question is about Chinese grand strategy14. While it may be happy with the status quo today, the Chinese grand strategy may be leading to a future where China eclipses the USA as the primary pole in the Pacific, thus supplanting the USA as the Pacific hegemonic power.

The 1980s under Deng Xiaping posture of reform and economic development signalled acquiescence to the status quo, from a hard line Communist revisionist position. China moved to international engagement and cooperation, dropping the central tenant of defending the global proletariat15. The current central government focus is on sovereignty, security, and development as its main goals, while many await the outcomes of the internal power
11

Huiyan, F., 2009, Is China a Revisionist Power? Chinese Journal of International Politics, Volume 2, pages 313-334. Johnston, A.I., 2003, Is China a Status Quo Power? MIT International Security, Vol. 27, No. 4 (Spring, 2003), pp. 5-56 Jakobson, L., Knox, D. 2010, New Foreign Policy Actors in China, SIPRI Policy Paper 26

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13 14

Jisi, W, 2011, Chinas search for a Grand Strategy: A Rising Great Power Finds its Way, Foreign Affairs, vol 90, no.2, pages 68-79. Jakobson, L., Knox, D. 2010, New Foreign Policy Actors in China, SIPRI Policy Paper 26

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 transition to Xi Jingpin16. A diversity of issues and perspectives; in particular economic interconnectivity and transnational security, provide structure around which Chinas influence is growing.

China is currently a status quo power on a Global scale and Revisionist on a Regional Scale

Chinese economic growth has increased trade and national wealth while bringing with it a changing position within the global State based community. China will continue to affect the balance and flow of wealth and trade within Asia, Pacific, and Global economies. All indications show an emerging China with an increasing interest in international relations17.

Chinese interactions with the world are both ancient and complex. Since 1788 and the Treaties of Nanking, China has been dragged by the West into the Westphalia system. China has emerged from the revolutions of the 20th century, as the leading example of a successful Communist State.

Today, the interconnected world increasingly relies upon international institutions for key aspects of international transit and trade, with most States locked up in a diverse range of quasi-governmental organisations such as the International Civil Aviation Organisation, Telecommunications, Post, etc. The importance of networks18 within the international decision making system provides multiple levels of interactions between China and the World.

16

Overholt, W, 2012 Reassessing China: Awaiting Xi Jinping Center for Strategic and International Studies The Washington Quarterly 35:2 pp. 121-137

Yaqing Qin, Development of International Relations theory in China: progress through debates China Foreign Affairs University
18

17

Sluaghter, A.M., 2004, Sovereignty and Power in a Networked World Order Stan. J. Intl L. Vol 40, pp 283

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 Chinese growth is creating changes in the global international order, and creating tensions within the Pacific. Whether this is sufficiently large enough to have power transition effects emerge is yet to be seen, and is a key importance to the essay question. Should power transitions between the US and China shift in nature, particularly with regard to Pacific maritime primacy, realist theory suggests there will be a tendency for increased tensions19. A revisionist State, approaching military parity with the Status Quo hegemony, will lead to conflict. Current military expenditures suggest, assuming rates are sustained, that the USA and China could reach military parity by 203020.

As tensions with China grows, the official line from Beijing is that the Chinese people are working towards a harmonious relationship with neighbours. This belies actions by China to expand regional power to littoral islands in the South China Sea21. Once this area is secured, they would naturally eclipse both Taiwan and Japan in production and regional supremacy, leading to a change in the regional order, and thus making China a revisionist State by Morgenthau, Copeland, and Johnston ontological measures. Meanwhile the USA, Australia, New Zealand, and other San Francisco System22 players are creating Pacific treaty regimes to govern trade between South American, North American, Oceania, and Asia. These initiatives show a continued, long standing, strategic interest in the maritime environment of the Pacific, South China Seas, and the Island States of South East Asia. Indias blue water navy, and dominance of the traffic routes west of Indonesia make it a significant component of the maritime military environment. These moves by USA and allied

Thompson, W.R. 2009 System Transitions Palgrave MacMillan 2009 pp. 55-71 Apps, P, 2011, East-West military gap rapidly shrinking: report, Online resource, Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/08/us-world-military-idUSTRE7273UB20110308 21 Buszynski, L. 2012 The South China Sea: Oil, Maritime Claims, and U.S.China Strategic Rivalry Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Washington Quarterly 35:2 pp. 139_156 22 Calder, K., 2004, Securing security through prosperity: the San Francisco System in comparative perspective, The Pacific Review, 17:1, 135-157
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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 States shows a push to strengthen the existing power structures, maintaining Japanese and ASEAN State strength as a hedge against Chinese regional security expansion.

The importance of affinity with Pacific island states also plays a role within the UN functions, as all States receive a vote, and those votes may matter. The disengagement by Australia with Pacific leaders throughout the early millennial years under John Howard allowed the systems of governance to decay, and relations with Australia diminish23. China has played a growing role in the Pacific through soft money loans, and other diplomatic measures. This indicates a revisionist tendency within the pacific littoral region.

China and the World Order

China was forced into the Westphalia State system by Europeans, the British in particular with the first Opium Wars and the Nanking Treaty system. This historical truth is often expounded into a Chinese historically emotive raison dtat driving Chinese grand strategic thinking, although this proves a hard concept to test. Others look to the behaviour of the Chinese leadership for indications of revisionism24, finding no convincing statistical evidence to support a leadership driven revisionist policy.

The Chinse Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence; Mutual Respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, Mutual Non-aggression, Mutual non-interference in each others internal affairs, Equality and mutual benefit, and Peaceful co-existence, are a subset of principles laid out in the UN Charter. While the Chinese often claim it as a unique contribution to world wisdom from Chinese discourse, one has to ask what have India and China agreed to over and above their agreements through the UN Charter? Or is this simply an historic artefact
23

White, H. 2007 Australia as an Asia Pacific Regional power : friendships in flux? / edited by Brendan Taylor. New York, NY : Routledge, chapter 8 pp.117-127

24

Huiyan, F, 2009, Is China a Revisionist Power? Chinese Journal of International Politics, Volume 2, pages 313-334.

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 from a time when Beijing did not have a seat in the UN, pre-1971? The later is the more likely and therefore the five principles are likely to stem from frustrations at being disenfranchised from the status quo system, rather than a desire to revise the order.

FivePrinciples
Mutual Respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty Mutual Non-aggression

UNCharter
Preamble and Articles 1 and 2

Article 2 - All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.

Mutual non-interference in each others internal affairs

Article 2 - Nothing contained in the present Charter shall authorize the United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present Charter; but this principle shall not prejudice the application of enforcement measures under Chapter Vll.

Equality and mutual benefit

Article 2 - The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members

Peaceful co-existence

Article 2 - All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

Growing Chinese production and economic benefit is driving changes to system hierarchies, irrespective of whether the Chinese State is intentionally behaving as a Revisionist or Status Quo nation. Chinese growth is creating changes in the global international order. Power transition theory25 is one method used to examine the effects of such power transitions.

25

Thompson, W.R. 2009 System Transitions Palgrave MacMillan 2009 pp. 55-71

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 China is a strong advocate of the Nation State structure and has embassies throughout the World. This and other efforts, seek to soften the language, tone, and tenor of the discussion about Chinas peaceful rise. China appears to have a good grasp on realist theories26 and are actively engaged globally diplomatically, economically, and militarily.

Challenges to States

Global citizenship and erosion of State power may eclipse any Chinese and USA power transitions and make strange bedfellows of Chinese and USA State authority interests. Power transitions between great powers has received sincere scholarly examination, however the story of the 21st century is more closely aligned with Individual sovereignty than with States interests. As global laws become domestic, and human rights provided under the banner of the responsibility to protect, the power of the individual to act and change the world is multiplied through ubiquitous connectivity on a truly global scale.

The echoes of a new cold war emerging are haunting the halls of power again, with eyes turned towards the Pacific27, Fiji, and the South China Sea. This while the Arab Spring enters a new chapter in Syria, a story where social media and mobile telephony stole the headlines. As new hope is given to Kantian dreams, the mighty powers range against the potential threat of a growing China, while China plays it cool and tries to moderate the tensions.

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Yaqing Qin, Development of International Relations theory in China: progress through debates China Foreign Affairs University Ibid

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Evaluating the Evidence

Realist theory has within it the notion of a status quo and a revisionist, State tendency. Whether a State is one or the other has significant influence on predictions of internal State motivations. China has been examined through this realist lens by a number of authors. Chan28 provides a lively Great Power comparative discourse on the topic, highlighting some of the more gregarious claims made by revisionist and status quo literature. Johnston29 lays out a good ontology for looking at definitions of revisionism and status quo behaviour. Chans analysis can be made to fit Gilpins rules as examined by Johnston, and both assessed to provide a determination of revisionist tendencies in Chinese foreign policy.

Gilpins Rules to Determine NonStatus Quo States The actor's participation rates in the institutions that regulate the activities of members of the community are low. 2. The actor may participate in these international institutions, but it does not accept the norms of the community. It breaks these rules and norms once it becomes a member of these institutions. 3. The actor may participate in

Johnston (2003)

Chan (2004)

China is Increasing participation in international institutions

China has used Veto power rarely. Orders of magnitude less than the USA. The least of all the Veto power States.

China has increased its participation of global normative processes, both externally and internally.

China has not signed onto a number of normative treaties, but is no less compliant than other great power states.

Chinese voting within the UN

Chinese commitment to human

28

Chan, S., 2004, Realism, Revisionism, and the Great Powers* Issues & Studies 40, no. 1 (March 2004): 135-172.

Huiyan, F, 2009, Is China a Revisionist Power? Chinese Journal of International Politics, Volume 2, pages 313-334.
29

29

Johnston, AI, 2003, Is China a Status Quo Power? MIT International Security, Vol. 27, No. 4 (Spring, 2003), pp. 5-56

[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259

these institutions and may abide by their rules and norms temporarily, but if given a chance, it will try to change these rules and norms in ways that

and other measures, indicate a China expressing its legitimate States interests within the Status Quo institutions. Albeit frequently in opposite corners

rights treaties, indicates a compliance with international peace and security goals. Compared to extensive nonsignatory status of the USA on the same normative treaties.

defeat the original purposes of

to developed western nations.

the institution and the community.

The second set of indicators addresses the attitudes and behaviour of an actor toward distributions of material power that appear to be disadvantageous to it. 4. The actor has internalized a clear preference for a radical redistribution of material power in the international system. 5. The actor's behavior is aimed in the main at realizing such a redistribution of power, and to this end military power is considered to be a critical tool.

Multipolarity discourse is a problematic indicator of the revisionist intentions of China's leaders. Little empirical evidence to support a revisionist monolithic China seeking a global redistribution of power structures. No evidence that China is arming to the extent necessary to pose a serious military threat to the existing order.

The articles above are written 2003 and 2004 respectively, and have not witnessed the emergent strategic activities over the last 8 years. While there are no indications that China is moving towards a radical change in the global system, as it did under the Moa regime, they are projecting diplomatic and maritime power throughout the South China Sea30 and diplomatic and economic power globally.

30

Yoshihara, T., Holmes J.R., 2011, Can China Defend a Core Interest in the South China Sea? The Washington Quarterly, 34:2 pp. 45-59

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 A view of the Gilpin ontology within a regional perspective shows a China which is engaged in securing mainland supremacy and expanding maritime power. The expansion of Chinese maritime reach is complicated by the South China Sea and the conflicting territorial claims in the region. The Chinese power projection into the Pacific requires a Northern aspect to avoid confrontation with neighbouring States. In many ways the Japanese primacy in the region over the past several decades has kept Chinese goals focused regionally.

The bid for regional hegemony of mainland Asia, and the South China Sea, being made by China, is likely to succeed, assuming the Chinese government can maintain legitimate and authoritative domestic control. Whether China will continue to expand maritime power is not yet evidenced, but all leading indicators suggest that a shift in Pacific maritime power is likely to be near the top of the new Politburos agenda.

Summary

Chinese activities in the South China Sea show signs of regional revisionism, with portents for future Pacific trajectories. An increase in Chinese presence both diplomatically and on the open seas of the Pacific, is being countered by the USA and allies throughout the pacific islands and ASEAN States. The UN forum and other international bodies continue, with increased Chinese participation. China does not show signs of seriously challenging the global systems of customary law, global institutions, or using force to obtain profit. China does not yet possess the military capability to seriously challenge the US maritime dominance in the Pacific. Their growing navy and merchant fleet should see China easily project into the South China Sea. While US costal observations continue to aggravate China, China has not countered as the Russians did with mirror operations off the US coast line. The

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[REVISIONING THE STATUS QUO CHINA] ZorbaParer306218259 Chinese continue to express their dissatisfaction with the situation, but are not projecting power back across the pacific. Australian and US repositioning suggests a shoring up of defence lines to protect allies in ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and further afield. India is leading the role as guardian of the Indian Ocean, protecting the trade ports from Africa to Asia. Southern Ocean claims made by Australia are hotly contested with the Japanese due to whaling rights and Antarctic Treaty provisions. It also keeps open the Antarctic routes which avoid blockades north of Australia. China is not a Global revisionist State in the imperial sense; it is a 21st century great power, fully networked, efficient, and prepared to take hard measures. If anything China is part of a Status Quo which has not changed since the Treaty of Westphalia; yet the world around it has changed, and is unlikely to remain still any time soon. China is a Regional revisionist State, with the capacity and desire to secure the South China Sea, and ensure mainland dominance. It will struggle to project into the Pacific, and will likely show restraint until it sees a clear benefit in challenging the Pacific maritime region. In the mean time it will ensure a peaceful transition of Taiwan, and a hedging of North Korea, Japan, Russia, and ASEAN. Indian relations will become more intense if stability in Pakistan is threatened.

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