Handbook: Think Tools

Handbook
Think Tools
Version 1.7
www.thinktools.com
Think Tools Suite 1.7
© 2000 Think Tools

Table of Contents
Think Tools Overview Page 2
Core Tools
- Qualitative Analysis Page 4
- Evolutionary Scenario Generator Page 8
- Strategy Evaluation Page 16
- Sequence Assessment Page 20
Document Master Page 24
Support Tool
- Interests, Goals and Interests Page 28
- Phase Space Migration Page 32
- Idea Manager Page 35
Creating Screen Shots Page 37
How to use this Handbook

Each Think Tools® tool includes:
Overview
- brief description of the tool
Functions
- list of suggested applications
Key Questions
- questions to maximize the effectiveness of the tool
Getting StartedU
- step-by-step procedure to apply tools
AnalyzeU
- illustrative techniques to help make sense of results
Example
- hypothetical case study
Advanced Users
- additional insights
UThe ‘Getting started’ and ‘Analyze’ sections include helpful boxes:

- questions: bold cyan words have corresponding questions
- tips: bold blue words have corresponding tips
- warnings: bold red words have corresponding warnings
Page 1
New Tools for Thinking
Think Tools® is a software-based support system for qualitative reasoning, decision-
making and knowledge management.
Throughout history, mankind has used tools, from the wheel and the lever to aircraft
and computers, to enhance innate human abilities. However, until recently, tools to
support complex reasoning have not been available.
Think Tools methodologies are used today by leading companies, governments and
consultancies for complex strategic questions and knowledge management. They are
also used to enhance the interactivity, knowledge efficiency and transparency of
organizational thinking processes; e.g. strategy development, product creation or
policy planning processes.
After more than a decade of basic research at the Max Planck Institute for Physics in
Munich, Think Tools translated the research results into user-friendly and practical
tools and methodologies. They were first introduced to a broader public at the
Annual Summit of the World Economic Forum in Davos in 1997.
Characteristics
Think Tools® is revolutionary in that the tool suite was created specifically to facilitate
advanced thinking. The tools enable one to improve the efficiency of our cognitive
operations by supporting them with the few processes that computers can perform
better.
The tools do not replace those functions - judgment and the application of insight -
in which the brain excels, but complement our reasoning skills by allowing
visualization of problems, more systematic exploration of alternatives and estimation
of outcomes thereby facilitating a more rapid and deeper understanding of complex
issues.
Benefits
Deeper Understanding
The graphic nature of Think Tools® enables faster and deeper understanding of
complex issues and options. Visual representation enables one’s mind to deal with
increased number of variables and multiple dimensions.
Transparency and real time interactivity

Think Tools® makes the reasoning process transparent despite the mathematical
complexity underpinning the software. Users or participants in workshops can
directly and interactively change ideas, assumptions or evaluations and
immediately experience the change on the overall outcome.
Faster decision-making
The quality of real time decision-making is greatly enhanced, as all computations
take place instantaneously and the results are displayed immediately.
Page 2
Easier consensus building
The linear process of verbal reasoning employed in discussion often leads to
delays, misunderstanding and conflict. Think Tools® enables one to circumvent
these impediments by facilitating a more rapid and deeper understanding of highly
complex issues, promoting earlier consensus. Where disagreements emerge, their
basis is clearly apparent and the assumptions and judgments underlying them can
be isolated and addressed.
Unlimited areas of application

Because the Think Tools® methodology is based on core cognitive operations, the
application possibilities are not limited to specific topics or issues. As long as the
level of complexity requires the support of tools, Think Tools® can help in grasping
and leading any type of thinking process.
Knowledge capturing and communication

The knowledge that is produced in the thinking process is captured in a unique
format that is easy to share. This is due to the clear and logical documentation of
knowledge in its proper context. This makes revisiting and communication of the
process and outcome efficient and comprehensive.
Individual, team and organizational use

The tools can be used on an individual level (e.g. preparation or knowledge
contribution), on a team level (e.g. collective decision-making) and on an
organizational level (creation of company knowledge platform).
Page 3
Qualitative Analysis
Overview
Understanding the structure and dynamics is
fundamental in tackling a complex problem. The
Qualitative Analysis (QA) tool assists in developing
a systemic overview, then enables further analysis
by identifying active and passive elements and
feedback loops in the system.
Functions Key Questions

Represents the architecture of a What are the key factors that
system constitute this system, problem or
Defines key factors and drivers, as well issue?
as their interactions and impacts How do they relate to one
Serves as a visual drawing tool (where another?
links represent only functional What are the driving factors?
connections without logic) What are the implications?
Getting Started
Create a new QA file:
1. Click the QA icon:
2. Click the Save icon:
3. Assign a file name no longer than 8
characters under the appropriate folder
4. Click OK
Add key factors:

1. Click the New Item icon:
2. Double-click within the box and enter What is the problem? What
key factors are the factors that make up
this problem?
3. Use concise and descriptive words in
boxes Be descriptive
4. Move boxes by clicking and dragging.
If a box does not drag, click outside the
box, or double-click on another box,
then return to the original box to move
Add definition to key factors:

1. Highlight the key factor and click the
description icon: to provide detail on Tip To indicate detail behind the
key factor, add an asterisk in
the key factor. When typing in the
the item box
information box, use Ctrl+Return for a
new line.
2. Right mouse click on the item box
to see the detail
Page 4
3. To link a document that supports the Excessive attachments will

key factor, click the description icon: take the user off the track of
Click Browse, select the desired file the original thought flow
and click OK.
An attachment will be indicated by a Double Click on
gray triangle in the upper right hand triangle to open
attached file
corner.
Create links between factors: How do the key factors

1. Highlight the box with the influencing impact one another?
factor
2. Click the Link icon:
3. Highlight the box with the factor
being influenced
4. Move boxes to locations where
links can best be seen. Try not
to cross links excessively. Avoid link “spaghetti”
5. Make sure that the systemic
representation is highly transparent
and easy to understand.
Determine the strength of the

impact between factors:
1. Double-click the link. The tip of
the arrow must be directly on the
line to adjust the link’s properties.
2. In the Dialog box, the strength

of the impact can be set by
moving the arrow up and down
Blue arrow: Red arrow:
from 5 to –5. The strength of the
Positive impact Negative impact
link should be set relative to the
other links in the file:
- Positive impact is represented
by a blue arrow
- Negative impact is represented
by a red arrow
- Strength of the impact will be
represented by the thickness Arrow thickness indicates
of the arrow magnitude of impact
Remove a factor or a link:

- Highlight the item box that needs to be
removed and click the Remove Item icon:
- Click the Remove Link icon: then click
on the arrow that needs to be removed
Page 5
Analyze
Identify critical areas of the system
with the Portfolio Evaluation: Drive other Pivots of
1. Click the Portfolio Evaluation View items the system
icon:
-Key Factors on the upper left
quadrants are active elements, or the
drivers of the system (They are Are driven by
often external factors that cannot be other items
influenced by the problem-solver
of this issue)
-Key Factors on the lower right Right mouse click to display
quadrants are passive elements, or element title and description
the outputs of the system
- Key Factors are displayed in the upper Tip If the element in the upper
right quadrant is not a
right quadrant are are at the core of the critical factor of the system,
system, being both drivers and outputs return to the Graphics View
to check the validity of the
relationship
2. To return to the diagram, click the
Graphics View icon:
Identify feedback loops:

1. Click the Feedback Loops icon:
- red loops have factors that reinforce Red loops T <-1 or >1
each other with increasing impact on Green loops T -1 to 1
Yellow loops T 1 or -1
the system
- green loops have factors that reinforce
each other with diminishing impact on
the system
- yellow loops are stable. The net effect
of these loops are neutral and will
not affect the overall situation.
2. Click the desired loop
3. Click the Graphics View icon:
4. The loop will be highlighted by darker
colors: blue arrows will turn into dark
blue arrows and red arrows into maroon
arrows
5. To return to Graphics View, click anywhere
on the screen
Page 6
Example
Situation
A multi-national, consumer products company with a large market share was
under attack from the low end by an Asian competitor that was gaining 1-2%
market share per year. The Asian company dropped prices by 30% across the
board and the consumer products company began to lose market share rapidly.
Approach
In approaching this problem, QA was
the first tool that the company used.
It helped them take a step back from
the problem and start tackling the
issue by first understanding the market
structure and its key elements. Then
they identified the driving factors in the
marketplace and analyzed the
relationships between those factors.
Next Step
The company is now able to create a strategic option space and explore potential
scenarios with these critical factors in mind. The Evolutionary Scenario Generator
(ESG) tool supports that process.
Advanced Users
Export key factors to ESG:
1. Choose to export a groups of boxes or all boxes. If a group is to be exported,
click and drag to highlight the desired boxes
2. Select Item>Export>All or Selected
3. Open ESG >Edit>Paste>Paste from QA
Shortcuts:
1. Copy boxes: while holding down the Control key, click on the box to be copied
and drag it to another place on the screen
2. Link boxes: while holding down the Shift key, click on the source box and
drag it to the destination box to link them
Color boxes to emphasize a key factor
Excessive use of colors could
or highlight a starting point: overshadow important
1. Select View>Draw mode>Color relationships in the system
Boxes
2. Highlight box
3. Click Properties icon:
4. Select Color>Assign color
5. Click OK Selecting Color Arrow in
Draw Mode turns the default
Color arrows to enter additional
arrow color to black,
dimensions to the system: including the color of all
1. Select View>Draw mode>Color arrows created up to that
Arrows point. Select Draw Mode at
the beginning of the session
2. Double-click on arrow
if the Color Arrow function is
3. Select Color>Assign color to be used during the
4. Click OK session
Page 7
Evolutionary Scenario Generator
Overview
The ESG supports the process of scenario building
and/or strategy development. In ESG, the user can
take a problem and break it down into several key
areas to explore and identify alternative options
within those key areas. Then all the options are rated
against one another based on their compatibility in
order to generate a series of different strategies or
scenarios, which can be listed according to the
highest level of consistency and stability.

Generate strategies: What is the focus of the strategy or
-Explore alternatives in key areas scenario?
-Ensure organizational alignment Is the strategy influenced by a
through identifying combinations scenario?
of options that are consistent What are the key areas that need to
with one another be explored?
Conceptualize industry scenarios, What are the relevant, mutually
geographic scenarios, socio-politic exclusive options within those key
or macro-economic scenarios areas?
Determine which strategy is most How do each of these options coexist
effective within a given scenario with options in each of the other key
Determine which strategy is most areas?
robust given any number of What is the most consistent
different scenarios combination of options?
Which combinations are worth
evaluating for implementation?
Getting started
Create a new ESG file:
1. Click the ESG icon:
4. Click OK
Add Key Area Descriptors:
1. Click the New Key Area icon:
2. Double-click within the box and enter a
name that best represents the key area What are the key areas that
to be considered. need to be explored?
*As with QA, to add detail or attach a supporting How could this complex
document to any boxes: problem be dissected into a
-Highlight box, click Edit>Properties collection of Key areas?
-Add an asterisk in the box to indicate detail
Add a Title:
1. Double click the Title Bar
What is the focus of the
2. Enter a name that describes the option
strategy or scenario?
space
Page 8
Add Options:
1.Click the New Options icon:
2. Double-click in the box and enter
a name that best represents a mutually What are the relevant
exclusive option within that key area options within those key
areas?
3. To add options at any time,
highlight the desired gray box first,
then click the New Options icon Tip Create simple option spaces
(i.e. 5-6 columns and to 3-4
yellow boxes), especially in
Edit Key Areas and Options: the beginning, until groups
-To move a box, highlight the box, drag become proficient in
and drop to the desired location managing them.
-To delete a box, highlight the box,
then click the Delete icon:
Once all the Key Areas and Options

have been entered:
Open Compatibility Matrix:

1.Click the Matrix icon: ESG is a powerful tool but
the process can be relatively
2.Click the Maximize icon within the time-consuming
Matrix window to get a full view.
The matrix can be moved by moving
the mouse pointer over the gray
boundary lines and dragging them.
How do each of these

The ESG calculation is based on the options coexist with options
judgments of participants or experts in each of the other key
expressed in a compatibility matrix. areas?
The matrix reflects all options on
horizontal and vertical scales. For
each combination of alternatives,
a value on a scale of –3 to +3 is
assigned, depending on how well
the two factors coexist.
Assess Overall Compatibility:

For each binary relationship,
determine whether the fit is positive,
negative or whether there is no
impact on one another:
1.Click in each box and drag to rate
the fit between two options from
+3, indicating the highest degree
of fit, to –3, indicating the highest
Click inside the
degree of friction. If there is no fit,
box and drag
give a rating of 0. up or down without
2. Repeat until the entire matrix releasing the left
is complete. mouse button
Page 9
3. Click the Save icon: before closing

the Matrix window (not to be confused
with the ESG program window).
Generate List of Strategies or
Scenarios:
If the Compute icon is
1. Click the Compute icon:
grayed out, the Compatibility
2. A dialog box will appear asking Matrix window has not been
whether you wish to save. closed
Click No.
3. At the bottom of the screen,
computation progress
indicator will be displayed.
Analyze
View a list of strategies or scenarios:
1. ESG computes all possible strategies
or scenarios and lists the top 100,
ranked in the order of their highest
Inter-Pillar Consistency (IPC).
In this example, the first line on

the list has been highlighted with
an IPC value of 18.00. This number
is generated with inputs from the
compatibility matrix and indicates
an overall level of consistency.
A higher consistency level means The most consistent strategy
better coexistence of all the does not mean that it is the
options in the combination. best strategy (refer to the
Strategy Evaluation tool)
The combination of options that
corresponds to 18.00 are marked
with red dots on the upper left
corner of yellow boxes.
The bars that appear in gray boxes

represent how well or poorly that
key area in the gray box is served
by the highlighted combination of
options. The particular key area is Vertical bars indicate how well or poorly
positively impacted by the selected that key area in the gray box is served by
strategy if the bar is tall and red, the highlighted combination of options
negatively impacted if the bar is
blue. The length of the bar, which
starts from the middle, expresses
the intensity of the impact (i.e. the
longer the red bar, the better served.)
Page 10
2. Use the down arrow key to see other

combinations on the list. Pay attention
to the movement of red dots.
Watch for combinations with distinctly
different patterns, but still with
acceptable level of consistency.
3. Although there may be several options or

within a key area, at times there may be Tip Try “what if” analysis by
one strategy or option from which one fixing an option to see what
cannot deviate. other options emerge as a fit
To search for a combination consistent
with that “fixed” option, mark it with
a green dot.
Also, if a combination is identified as a

strategy worth further evaluation, mark Click the lower left corner
each of the options that makes up the of the yellow box
combination with a green dot and save
it as a separate file, assigning a name
that best describes that strategy. This
file can later be used in the Strategy
Evaluation tool.
Example
Situation
Approach
The company used the QA tool to
understand the market structure
and its key elements. Then having
identified the driving factors in the
marketplace, they created and
explored their strategic option
space. They used the critical factors
as the key areas and identified a few
alternative options within each of the key areas. Having assessed how each option
coexists with all the rest of the options in the system, they were able to come up
with a few consistent, yet different strategies.
Next Step
The company is now able to evaluate these strategies against one another using a
number of objectives that they had set. The Strategy Evaluation tool supports
that process.
Page 11
Advanced Users
Import “Key Factors” as “Key Areas”
to explore from the QA tool:
1. Select critical factors that are
considered to be Key Areas of a
strategy or scenario by
highlighting these boxes
2. Select Item>Export>All or Selected
3. In ESG, select Edit>Paste>Paste
from QA
Test Strategies against Scenarios:
Combining the strategy space with
the scenario space allows testing
of various strategies against
scenarios:
1. Open the scenario file
2. Select Hierarchy>Merge
3. Choose the strategy file. This will
place the strategy option space
to the right of the scenario space.
4. Disproportionate influence of one Is the strategy influenced by
space over the other can be a scenario?
displayed (and included in the
overall computation in “Advanced
Mode”) by creating a hierarchy between
the option spaces. The strategy space is
therefore dependant on the scenario.
-Highlight the Title Bar of the second
option space and select Hierarchy>
One Down
To identify the most viable Which strategy is most

strategies given a certain scenario: effective within a given
1. Fix the sub-scenarios that form the scenario?
scenario with green dots in the
scenario option space.
2. Start the computation that
identifies the most compatible
combinations in the strategy option
space given the fixed sub-scenarios.
Page 12
If there is an interesting strategy, test

for its robustness by running a number Which strategy is most
robust given any number of
of different fixed scenario combinations.
different scenarios?
Look for the degree of change caused
in the strategy combination. Pay attention
to the red dots to see if the change is
drastic depending on alternative scenarios
or whether there are only slight variations
of the same strategy.
Assign weights to Key Areas in Scenario Do the key areas have

Option Spaces if the key areas have different relevance to the
scenario?
varying levels of importance:
1. Select Settings>Mode>Advanced
2. Highlight Gray Box, select Edit>
Properties or Alt+Enter
3. With the mouse arrow, move the bar
from 0 to 100 to assign a weight
Assign probability to Options if the

probability of events is clearly understood: Do not use this feature
1. Select Settings>Mode>Advanced unless there are subject
experts to assign the
2. Highlight Yellow Box, Select Edit>
probabilities
Properties or Alt+Enter
3. With the mouse arrow, move the bar
from 0 to 100 to assign probability
Once the weights and probabilities have

been assigned, click the Compute icon.
The default setting equally considers
values from Inter-Pillar Consistency (IPC)
and Aggregated Endogenous Probability
(AEP) to produce the Overall Likelihood The number system to the
(OLH) number. When the separate window left of the window is only
linked to the IPC ranking. To
with the list pops up, drag the window
view the results by their best
to the left to better view the results in Overall Likelihood number,
all three columns. change the Computation
Parameter setting.
Page 13
Change Settings:
1. Change Computational Parameter:
Select Settings>Computational
Parameters (The setting must be
in Advanced Mode for the dialog
box to display as seen here).
To allow for more weight on the
compatibility matrix instead of the
probability setting, move the Scenario
Performance Factor bar towards IPC.
2. Show Values: Within the Compatibility
Matrix, you have the option to see
the number within each square. Select
View>Show Matrix Values.
3. Change Colors: You may also change
the default colors of the Compatibility
Matrix. Select Settings>Color.
Click on each
number for its
Use the Evolutionary computational color palette
process for large option spaces: to appear
Running a Deterministic Process (by
clicking the icon) to generate scenarios
could take a long time for large option
spaces. This is due to the fact that the
Deterministic Process computes all feasible
scenarios, up to approximately 150,000,
in order to generate the most consistent
scenarios.
The Evolutionary Process starts by generating

a random population of scenarios and calculating
the best and worst scenarios. From there, a new
set of scenarios are created by trying to increase
the consistency from the most consistent old
scenarios:
1. Click the Evolve icon:
2. Pay attention to the status bar which displays
the consistency of the best and the worst
scenarios
3. Click the Evolve icon again to stop the
Evolutionary Process, when the two figures
don't seem to change any longer
Page 14
Use the Evolution Tree to navigate If the Evolution Tree icon is

grayed out, compute first,
through the range of different
then close the IPC list
strategy or scenariy patterns:
Click the Evolution Tree icon:
For larger option spaces, it will take Different strategy
longer for the Evolution Tree window or scenario
patterns
to appear.
Each green circle represents a

a strategy or scenario pattern.
Display both Evolution Tree window

and the Option Space window by
clicking Window > Tile. Then,
manipulate both windows to get
the best view of both.
1. Navigation System
To navigate through the strategy
and scenario patterns, highlight a
green circle, which will then turn
into a red circle. This will also change
correspondingly the combination of
red dots in the Option Space.
2. Consistency Check between Option

Spaces
The form of the green circles re-
flects the consistency of a strategy
or scenario pattern: The circle re-
flects a pattern of high consistency
whereas ovals reflect patterns of low
consistency. Double-click in a circle
to see the dialog box with its IPC
value. Circle: Oval:
High consistency Low consistency
Page 15
Strategy Evaluation
Overview
The Strategy Evaluation tool allows systematic
evaluation of strategies or options. By evaluating
the performance of each strategy or option against
multiple, weighted criteria in up to three relevant
time horizons, instantaneous, visual interpretations
of the input are displayed for comparison, leading
to quick understanding and better decision-making.

Evaluate various options against a What are the options that should be
multiple number of weighted evaluated?
criteria: What are the evaluation
-Strategies against objectives criteria/objectives?
-Strategies against scenarios Should the options be evaluated over
-Competitors/Partners against time? If yes, what time horizons?
criteria How important or relevant are these
-Projects against objectives criteria relative to one another over
Serves as a conflict management time?
and mediation aid. How well does the option perform
against the criteria?
Getting Started
Create a new Strategy Evaluation file:
1. Click the Strategy Evaluation icon:
4. Click OK
Add Strategies:
1. Select Manage>Strategies
2. Click Add What are the strategy
3. Choose and type the Strategy name options that should be
that is descriptive and intuitive evaluated?
4. Click the drop down arrow in the Color
Tip Evaluate not only strategies,
field and select a color but also other complex and
5. Enter a concise strategy description controversial decisions, such
6. If the strategy resulted from the ESG as projects, partners,
candidates, competitors, etc.
tool, attach the ESG file by double
clicking on the strategy, then clicking
Browse in the Strategy Composition file
and adding the ESG file. This will serve
as a reminder of the specific composition
and details of the strategy. Click Launch
to open the attached ESG file.
7. Click OK
8. Continue steps 2-7 for additional strategies
Page 16
Strategy Evaluation
Add Criteria:
1. Select Manage>Criteria
2. Click Add
What are the evaluation
3. Type the Criterion Name criteria/objectives?
4. Press <Tab> then type a short name
or an acronym of the criterion
Tip If the criteria are unclear,
5. Enter a concise criterion description start with the IGP tool to
6. Click OK refocus on the goals
7. Continue steps 2-6 for additional
criteria
Introduce the time dimension: Tip Time Dimension does not

1. Select Manage>Time Horizon Info have to be quantifiable; e.g.
2. Enter the appropriate units for project phase, stages of an
event
the three time horizons.
They can also be a measure other Criteria
than time, e.g. different interest
groups, business units, political Time
factions.
3. Enter a concise Time Dimension
Strategies
description
4. Click OK
Determine the relative importance

Are some criterions more
of each criterion:
important than others?
1. Click each ball within the criteria Which ones? Does that
space and drag it up or down change over time?
(0 to 10) to assign appropriate Even if all criteria seem to
weight in each of the three time be highly important, use the
horizons full scale from 0 to 10
2. Think in relative terms.
Tip When disagreements
It may help to look for the the emerge over ratings, rather
most important criterion in the than coming to a consensus,
take one view, making note
beginning and assign a
of the choice, until the
maximum value. Then use this outcome is displayed. Then,
as a reference point in assigning rerun each of the disputed
other criteria. views to see their impact on
the overall outcome
Determine the relative performance
of each strategy:
Tip Add a status quo strategy
with zero values as a
1. Click each ball within the strategy benchmark line for ratings
space and drag it up or down (-10
to +10) depending on how well
the strategy meets the specified
criteria in each of the three time
horizons
2. If the rating requires explanation, Double-click in the
double-click on the number to enter number space to
detail on the rating assigned 2 5 15 add rating detail
years
Page 17
Strategy Evaluation
Analyze
Once the strategies have been rated in
each time frame, the outcome can be
viewed:
Click the View icon: to display a bar
Short-term
chart that compares all strategies
against one another based on the
performance rating input.
Mid-term
Change any criteria weighting or
strategy performance rating and
view their changes in the outcome
instantaneously. Long-term
Example
Situation
Approach
The company used the QA tool to understand the
market structure and its key elements. Then having
identified the driving factors in the marketplace,
they created and explored their strategic option
space using the ESG tool. In the Strategy Evaluation
tool, they vertically listed the strategies that were
identified and horizontally listed their objectives to
use as evaluation criteria. They then rated each
strategy’s potential to meet each criteria in three
time horizons: 3 months, 6 months and 24 months.
Outcome of the input is displayed in the bar chart to the

left. The results indicate that although the “Attack”
3 months strategy best meets their objectives in the short term, the
“Trade Exclusive” strategy performs the best in the mid
and long term time horizons.
6 months
Next Step
The company is now able to take the “Trade Exclusive”
24 months strategy and subject it against a reality check by
anticipating potential risks and assessing the strategy’s
probability of success. The Sequence Assessment tool best supports that process.
Page 18
Strategy Evaluation
Advanced Users
Settings can be changed to display Double-click
results in different ways. Double-click anywhere inside
the pane to
anywhere inside the pane and a dialog change settings
box will appear.
Check any one to see results for that
single time horizon, or check any two or
all three to view aggregated results.
To view single or multiple charts

that display the outcome, click one
of the View icons on the toolbar.
Typical usages are: Matrix View 1: View 2: View 3: Sequence View:
view Matrix Matrix Matrix Resets the
-Use “View 1” to rank strategies only and 1 and 2 and 3 panes to
chart charts charts display the 3
with all three time frames summed time frames
up in an aggregated view. in sequence
-Use “View 2” for real-time

sensitivity analysis:
1. Fix the outcome in one pane
by leaving ‘auto-update’ Present
unchecked. Outcome
2. For the same time frame in a

separate pane, check ‘auto-
update’. Change strategy “What if”
performances or criteria weights Outcome
and observe the differences
in the outcomes.
-“Sequence View” displays the three
time frames in sequence. It also
resets all changes in time settings.
Once this icon is clicked, all other
views will revert to the default time
setting.
Matrix
Right-mouse click in the pane to display

alternate views:
Profile
1. Matrix: Use to enter inputs

2. Profile: Compares between the
strategies for each criteria in a
Compare Ranking
disaggregated view.
3. Ranking: Compares between the
strategies, summed over all criteria.
4. Compare: Allows a comparison
between a chosen strategy versus
any other chosen strategy or
strategies.
Page 19
Sequence Assessment
Overview
Probabilities of various outcomes should be
anticipated in order to reach the most desirable
outcome. The Sequence Assessment(SA) tool
supports the process of defining risks or
implementation hurdles and assigning probabilities
to those events. This process enables one to
understand the path to potential outcome and
allows analysis of critical intervention points
that influence end results.

Supports the process of What are some of the hurdles or risks
understanding and defining that are likely to be encountered if
external and internal risks involved this decision was to be implemented?
with implementing a strategy What is the sequence of these events?
Runs decisions through “what if” How likely is it that these events take
analysis place?
Analyzes critical intervention points Are the likelihood of events dependent
to influence end results on other events?
How probable is the success of the
decision?
What are the critical points that can
influence the end result?
Getting Started
Create a new Sequence Assessment file:
1. Click the SA icon:
4. Click OK
Define and enter subject matter:

2. Double-click in the top half of the
box to enter the title of the strategy
or decision being analyzed
3. Double-click in the lower half of the
box to enter a brief description of the
strategy or decision being analyzed
4. Add detail by clicking the Detailed
Information icon:
5. Move the box by highlighting and
dragging it to the top middle of the
screen
Page 20
Sequence Assessment
Define and enter potential outcomes:

What are some of the
outcomes that can be
2. Double-click in the top half of the expected?
box to enter the title of a potential
outcome, such as “Success”
box to enter a brief description of the
potential outcome, such as “Increase
profit margin to 12%”
4. Add detail by clicking the Detailed Risk Layer
Information icon:
Potential
dragging it to the bottom of the
Outcomes
screen
6. Repeat steps 1-5 for additional potential
outcomes
Define and enter risk layer descriptors: What are the potential risks
1. Click the New Item icon: or hurdles one might
encounter in implementing
this decision? Consider both
box to enter the title of a potential risk internal and external factors.
box to enter a brief description of the Risk Layer
potential risk Descriptors

Information icon:
dragging it to the left of the screen
6. Repeat steps 1-5 for additional
potential risks
7. Arrange risk descriptor boxes in their Which risk will be
proper sequence encountered first?
Define and enter alternative scenarios
for each risk: What are likely scenarios
1. Click the New Item icon: associated with the risk?
Tip If the probability of a risk
box to enter the title of a scenario
scenario is “path dependent”
3. Double-click in the lower half of the (affects the next level based
box to enter a brief description of the on the previous level),
scenario create duplicate risk boxes
Information icon:
dragging it to the same level as the
risk layer descriptor, keeping the
positive scenarios and positive
outcomes to one side of the screen
Duplicate
6. Repeat steps 2-6 for additional set of risk
scenarios scenarios
Page 21
Sequence Assessment
Assign Probabilities to each risk How likely is it (on a scale

scenario: from 0 to 100%,) that these
1. Highlight the source box events take place?
2. Click the Link icon:
3. Highlight the destination box
4. Double-click the link to assign probability
5. Enter a number from 0 to 100 or move
the sliding bar up or down
6. Click OK
7. Repeat steps 1-6 for all scenarios in the
same risk layer, keeping in mind that
all probability assignments should add
up to 100% for each risk layer
Remove a risk scenario or a link:

1. Highlight the item box to be removed
and click the Remove Item icon:
2. Double-click the link and click delete
Analyze
View probability of outcome:
-Select Event>Show Probabilities
Change probability assignments to see

their impacts on the outcome:
-Select Event>Normalize Probabilities
Identify critical points that influence the

outcome:
Use the Back Tracking analysis to identify
critical paths that have led to the chosen
outcome:
1. Highlight an outcome box
2. Click the Bottom-Up Analysis icon: Back
track
3. Return to Full View by clicking
from
outcome
Forward
track
from
Use the Forward Tracking analysis to scenario
identify the paths from the chosen scenario
down to the affected outcomes:
1. Highlight an outcome box
2. Click the Top-Down Analysis icon:
3. Return to Full View by clicking
Tip If a certain risk scenario has

been identified as having
major impact on the
outcome, create an option
space in ESG to develop the
best strategy for that area
as a part of overall strategy
Page 22
Sequence Assessment
Example
Situation
Approach
The company used the QA tool to understand the market structure and its key
elements. Then having identified the driving factors in the marketplace, they
created and explored their strategic option space using the ESG tool. With the
Strategy Evaluation tool, they rated the identified strategies against their
criteria in three time horizons.
The best performing strategy was then
subjected to a reality check using the
Sequence Assessment tool to anticipate
risks and estimate success probabilities.
The outcome of the risk check is displayed
to the right. The results indicate that
although the strategy has a 12% chance
of backfiring and 20% being blocked, the
success ratio is quite high at 68%, giving
them enough confidence to move forward
with the “Trade Exclusives” strategy.
They also identified a few risk levers through
the Back Track analysis that can help increase the success ratio.
Next Step
The company now has developed a strategy that will serve as a base for their
future marketing efforts. In addition, they have captured the knowledge in an
interactive format, so that this knowledge will be stored as systemic knowledge in
its proper context, and not merely as data or information. The conclusions can be
rationally justified to their Board and all elements of the reasoning process can be
revisited, interrogated and updated very easily at any time in the future.
Advanced Users
Shortcuts:
1. Copy boxes: while holding down the Control key, highlight the box to be
copied and drag it to another place on the screen
2. Link boxes: while holding down the Shift key, highlight the source box and
drag it to the destination box to link them
Page 23
Document Master
Overview
The Document Master (Documaster) tool represents the
reasoning architecture used in addressing a complex
problem. It enables one to navigate through the
thinking process while retaining an overview of the entire
structure. The icon representing each tool in the Docu-
master provides direct access to the tool application.

Represents the whole reasoning What is the underlying problem?
architecture What is the desired output?
Provides direct access to What are the core issues?
different tools Which tools support reasoning on these
Serves as a knowledge issues?
backbone What is the logical sequence of thinking
steps?
Getting Started
Create a new Documaster file:
1. Click the Documaster icon: A dialog
box with the default name “dcm.ici” will
appear
2. Choose a folder where all the files from this
project should reside. If necessary, go to
Windows Explorer to create a new folder.
3. Accept the default file name or assign a file
name no longer than 8 characters, after
having clicked on the appropriate folder
(the picture representing this folder should
show as being open in the dialog box).
4. Click OK.
IF THIS IS THE FIRST TOOL BEING

USED IN LOOKING AT THIS PROBLEM:
Go to the next page if this is not the first tool.
Ease into the session with a simple exercise
Tip The QA tool can be used to
(brainstorm with IdeaMan, define interests, flesh out the possible initial
reasoning pattern
goals or priorities with IGP, or get an overview
of the situation with Qualitative Analysis)
DRAFT a process flow identifying the
departure point and the arrival point: Don’t spend too much time
drafting the process flow,
1. Click the New Box icon: Move down to
since the it should evolve
the screen and click on a location where throughout the session
you want to place the box
2. Click the Box Properties icon: Move to
the screen and click the box where you
want to assign details.
Page 24
Document Master
3. Assign a name that describes this thinking

Tip Use descriptive and
step in the Header field intuitive titles to indicate
4. Attach files by clicking Add File functions of this step within
the process
IF YOU HAVE ALREADY USED OTHER

TOOLS IN LOOKING AT THIS PROBLEM:
Add the files that have already been created:
1. Click the View Both icon:
2. From the list of files on the left, click
the file that you want, and drag and
drop onto the desired position on the
screen
3. The box created will show the icon of
the tool and the file name
4. Click the Box Properties icon:
5. Assign a name that describes this
thinking step in the Header field
Add additional files:

1. Add multiple files to the box only if The visual icon indicating the
adding more than one file adds value type of thinking step is
by better supporting this thinking step eliminated if there is more
than one file supporting that
2. Integrate files other than Think Tools®
step
files (e.g. Word, Excel, PowerPoint,
video clips, web page) only if they Stay away from the danger
support the thought flow of “information dump”
Create Links:
1. Highlight the box from where you want
the link to originate, click the Link
icon: and highlight the destination
box.
2. The default color of the arrow is dark
Tip Use red arrows to indicate
blue. To assign a different color, core reasoning architecture
double click on the link and click color. and blue arrows to indicate
input to or output from the
This will be the arrow color until it is
core
changed again. The thickness of the
arrow can also be adjusted by increasing
Use different strength values
or decreasing the strength value. only if it adds significant
clarity to the reasoning
Remove Boxes and Links:
1. Highlight the box and click the remove
box icon:
2. Click the remove link icon: and point
the arrow over the link.
Page 25
Document Master
Refresh files:
1. If new files were created while the
Documaster file was open, click
Refresh Files icon: The list of Refresh Files icon =
files will be updated and the new file
Open Files icon =
names will be displayed by clicking
the View Both icon:
Example
Situation
Approach
Throughout this handbook, you
will see how this company used
Think Tools® to identify the
driving factors in their market
place, generate potential
strategies based on those key
factors, evaluate each of those
strategies against one another,
and finally run a risk check to
determine the probability of the
chosen strategy’s success.
The above diagram visually represents the reasoning architecture of the exercise
conducted by the consumer products company. By double-clicking each box, we
are able to see all elements of the reasoning process that led to the selected
strategy. Capturing all the knowledge generated in an interactive, dynamic “tool-
based” format allowed the company to store “knowledge as knowledge”, and not
simply as static information.
Page 26
Document Master
Additional examples of Reasoning Architectures
Policy Formulation Model

A group of state (provincial) government
members used this approach in a policy
formulation exercise. After evaluating
preliminary strategies, on the basis of
a directive from the central government,
they discovered none were acceptable.
They then analyzed the key policy
drivers, explored a wider range of policy
options, conducted a strategy evaluation
to select the most effective strategy and
performed a risk check on that strategy.
Business Planning Model

This is a strategic planning template
that starts with the identification of
goals, followed by an analysis of
demand and cost drivers. Files other
than Think Tools® files, such as Excel
spreadsheets, have been integrated
into this thought flow. To ensure
coherent strategic management,
templates can be created by the
central planning department as a
guide for strategic business units.
Regional Knowledge Backbone

This is an interactive body of
knowledge for a specific geographic
area - Asia. The thinking steps linked
by the red arrows are the strategic
reasoning proprietary to a company,
while those linked by blue arrows
constitutes knowledge of Asian
countries. The "blue" knowledge
feeds into the strategy process in
the red area. Knowledge backbones
are typically created by experts and
integrate the most relevant
knowledge regarding an industry or
region in a dynamic and accessible
format.
Page 27
Interests, Goals and Priorities
Overview
The Interests, Goals and Priorities (IGP) tool
helps define interests and goals and prioritize
them by understanding their relative
importance over time. IGP also allows one
to assess and visualize the performance of
the current strategy in fulfilling the outlined
interests and goals.

Set or clarify interests, goals, Are the goals or success criteria
objectives or success criteria clearly defined? What are they?
Prioritize them over time How important is each goal against
Perform gap analysis one another?
Rate current performance against Does the relevant importance of each
competitors goal change over time? What are the
Establish a clear overview of appropriate time horizons to consider?
individual and group’s interests, How well does the current strategy
goals, priorities and a common meet the outlined goals? Is the
understanding of their fulfillment situation likely to improve over time?
Getting Started
Create a new IGP file:
1. Click the IGP icon: Tip Use IGP in the beginning
and again at the end to
2. Click the Save icon: track changes in the
3. Assign a file name no longer than 8 objectives fulfillment with
the current strategy versus
the new strategy
4. Click OK
List goals or success criteria:
1. Click the Add icon:
Are the goals or success
2. Enter a brief description of the goal criteria clearly defined?
in the Criterion field. What are they?
List goals that are on the same
strategic level, otherwise list Avoid listing goals that are
not on the same strategic
sub-goals (see Advanced Users level
for the sub-goal description).
3. Enter further description as necessary
4. Assign a color by clicking the down arrow
5. Click OK
6. Continue steps 1-5 for additional
goals. Make sure that the first line Tip It is easier to have all goals
listed before assigning
labelled Interests, Goals and relative importance
Priorities is highlighted as you
click the Add icon.
7. To change the order of the goals, highlight
the goal, then drag and drop on the first line
Page 28
Determine whether it helps to look

at goals over time: Tip Make a note of the time
1. Determine whether the relative dimension as a reminder in
the description box of the
importance of goals changes over first goal. Right-mouse
time click on the goal to view
2. Determine whether the fulfillment the time details.
of goals changes over time
3. If the time dimension consideration
is useful, determine what time horizons
are appropriate. (e.g. Today, 2 years,
5 years)
Determine the relative importance Even if all goals seem to be

of each goal: highly important, use the full
scale from 0 to 10
1. Double-click on the goal that is
considered the most important.
Assign a high value either by
entering a number in the relevance
field or adjusting the scroll bar from
0 to 10. Tip It may be easier to
complete "Short Term" for
2. Think in relative terms. Using all goals first, then
the most important goal as a returning to the most
reference point, assign values to important goal to complete
"Mid Term" and "Long
all other goals. Term" at the same time
Determine the Fulfillment of each

How well does the current
goal with the current strategy: strategy meet the outlined
1. Starting again with the most goals? Is the situation likely
important goal, assign a value to improve over time?
from 0 to 10 on how likely the
current strategy will perform
in meeting each goal
Analyze
Once the fulfillment has been assessed
in each time frame, the outcome can be
viewed:
Short-term
Click the View icon: to display a pie
chart that compares all goals against one
another based on the relevance and
the fulfillment input.
Mid-term
Change any relevance weighting or

fulfillment rating and view their changes
in the outcome instantaneously.
Long-term
Page 29
Recognize the more important goals

and see if this changes over time:
The wider the segment of the pie, the
the higher its relative importance
Recognize which goals are likely to

be met and which ones are unlikely Relevance
to be met given the current strategy:
The closer the segment of the pie is to Fulfillment
the outer circumference, the higher the -Width of the segment = Relative
likelihood that goal will be met with the importance (e.g. the green goal is
current strategy more important than the white goal)
-Proximity to the outer circumference
Pay special attention to the segments of = Fulfillment (e.g. the current
the pie that are wide but far from the strategy fulfills the white goal better
than the cyan goal)
outer circumference
If the pie charts are blank,
See description of the selected item,
it is because the fulfillment
% relevance and % fulfillment by right- values have not yet been
mouse clicking on the selected segment assigned
Advanced Users
If it is difficult to assign a value to a
goal because the goal constitutes a
number of different components, then
create sub-goals:
1. Highlight the main goal
2. Click the Add icon:
ST MT LT
3. Enter a brief description of the sub-goal
in the Criterion field, as has been done
for the main goal
4. Additional sub-goals can be entered as
long as the main goal is highlighted
when clicking the Add icon
5. The value of the main goal can be
shown to reflect the arithmetic mean
of the sub-goals. Double-click on the
main goal, then click Calculate.
Tip Use the time dimension for
dimensions more befitting
each situation (e.g.
Time dimension can be replaced by other Benchmarking, different
dimensions, such as benchmarking: view points, employment
1. Consider “Best Practice” as the full pie satisfaction, etc.)
with maximum values of ten
2. Rate organization and 2 main competitors My Company
in a snapshot mode.
[Use the three columns, ST, MT and LT Competitor 1
for Organization, Competitor 1 and
Competitor 2]
Competitor 2
Benchmarking
Page 30
Settings can be changed to display

results in different ways. Double-click
anywhere inside the pane and a dialog
box will appear.
Check any one to see results for that
single time horizon, or check any two or
all three to view aggregated results.
To view single or multiple charts

that display the outcome, click one
of the View icons on the toolbar.
Typical usages are: Matrix View 1: View 2: View 3:
-Use “View 1” to rank goals view Matrix Matrix Matrix
only and 1 and 2 and 3
with all three time frames summed chart charts charts
up in an aggregated view.
Export goals and interests as criteria in

evaluating strategies or decisions.
To export to Strategy Evaluation:
1. Select Criterion>Export to SD4 or
2. Open Strategy Evaluation in the main toolbar
3. Open a file named “from_sd1.ici”
4. Rename the file to a more intuitive name
Shortcuts:
Once the values have been assigned, the
fulfillment of the goal can be fine-tuned
directly in the pie chart. Click on the edge
of the segment and drag. Corresponding Click and drag
value is displayed in the bottom right corner.
Page 31
Phase Space Migration
Overview
The Phase Space Migration (PSM) tool is used for the
dynamic visualization of large volumes of information
over time. The user can select up to four dimensions
of information which is displayed in video mode over
the course of a few seconds. This allows the user to
easily observe and extract significant trends and/or
anomalies.

Provide a quick visual What/who are the key interest groups
representation of information pertinent to this analysis?
Show developments of different What are the parameters that describe
groups or situations the development of the interest groups?
Facilitate competitor, project, What is the time span that the analysis
product, or player analysis should cover?
Getting Started
Create a new PSM file:
1. Click the PSM icon:
4. Click OK
There are two ways to enter data:

Manually or in an Excel Template
Enter Data Manually

Define and enter Interest Groups:
What/who are the key
1. Click the Add Interest Group icon: interest groups pertinent to
2. Double-click on the “unnamed” bubble this analysis?
to open the Edit Interest Group dialog
box
3. Assign a name and a color
What are the different

Define and enter parameters: parameters that would be
1. Double-click in the lower left hand corner interesting to see together
of the screen on the axes and size area over time?
2. Choose appropriate parameter for each
axis and enter titles
Tip Try to designate two
parameters with some
Enter time span: correlation to one another
to take the x and y axes.
1. Select Animation>Set Parameters
Reserve size of the bubbles
2. Enter time span in dd/mm/yyyy for aspects that grow over
time and is always positive.
Page 32
Enter parameter values

1. Double-click on the Interest Group name 2 click
2. For the x-axis, move the mouse in the
box to assign values, horizontal
movement shows dates, vertical Cursor
Movement
movement shows value in % below
the box
3. Click the left mouse button at any Red = Time
point to register a value Blue = Value

4. Click the Clear button to restart the
manual entry
5. Click the down arrow in the Parameter
field to enter values for other parameters.
All parameters must have values for
the Interest Group bubble to appear on
the grid.
Enter Data in Excel

Define and enter parameters and factors
1. Open EXAMPLE.XLS template file
found under C:\TT\excel
2. Save the file under a new name so as
not to overwrite the template
3. Enter the four axes by writing over
current entries
4. Enter the Interest Groups by writing
over current entries
Enter parameter values

1. All entry of data must be in the gray
area of the spreadsheet. If additional
columns or rows are needed, they must
be inserted or deleted within the gray
area.
2. Enter dates in column B
3. Enter axis names exactly as entered
in Row 2. If not entered exactly the
same, the axes and values will not be
recognized.
4. Enter group names exactly as entered
in Row 3
5. Adjust the normalization Row 9
Tip The normalization row
according to the data entered should be determined
separately for each group.
If most numbers are
between 1 and 100, set if
for 100, not 1,000.
Page 33
Export to PSM
1. Once all entries have been made,
highlight the entire gray area
2. Go to the toolbar and click on TT-Export If TT-Export is not on your
3. Choose Phase Space Migration (PSM) Excel toolbar, install it by
4. When the dialog box appears, enter OK selecting Tools>Add-
Ins>Browse>
Click Ici-exp.xla>OK
Analyze
Play video representation:
1. Click the Start Icon:
- The data will play from the
beginning date of entry
2. Click the Pause Icon: to temporarily

suspend the video. Click the start icon
to restart the video.
3. Use the scroll bar to move to a

specific point in time
4. In order to get a detailed view, click

and rotate the cube
Page 34
Idea Manager
Overview
The Idea Manager (IM) is a brainstorming tool enabling
one to view complex multidimensional relationships
in a three dimensional space. Through this visual
representation, complex interactions can be
envisioned and clusters of associated items
can easily be identified.

Analyze the inter-relationships of What are the key factors or items
organizational culture, brand under evaluation?
characteristics, problem components Which aspect or whose aspect
Use to brainstorm needs to be considered?
Analyze issues of fewer than 10 How do the key issues relate to
components one another?
Getting Started
Create a new Idea Manager file:
1. Click the IM icon:
4. Click OK
Add Items:
1. Click the New Item icon: What are the key factors or
2. Click Add Item items under evaluation?
3. Assign a different color from the default
red, only you want to help this item
stand out from the rest or if it helps to
better visualize interactions
4. Enter a short name, the full name and
its description, if helpful
5. Continue steps 2 & 3 to add additional
items
Add Aspects:
Which aspect or whose
1. Click the Aspects icon: aspect needs to be
2. Click Add Aspect considered?
3. Enter a short name, the full name and
its description, if helpful
4. Continue steps 2 & 3 to add additional
aspects. e.g. the Board’s aspect,
Investors’ aspect, the Project team’s
aspect, etc.
Page 35
Idea Manager
Assign connections:
1. Click the Connections icon:
2. All the listed items will be shown
once in the left box, and again in the
right box, except for the first item
3. For the two highlighted items,
evaluate and assign a correlation
value by considering their level of
fit
4. For each of the item in the left box, If the two highlighted items have:
-a high degree of fit, assign a value
complete the evaluation process
from 6 to 10
for all the items in the right box -a low degree of fit, assign a value
by moving down and highlighting from 1 to 5
the items to be evaluated -a degree of friction, assign a value
from –1 to –10
-no fit, assign a rating of 0
Analyze
Choose an aspect and optimize:
1. Click the Show Aspects icon:
2. Click on the aspect that you want to see
3. To combine aspects, select the different
aspects that you want to combine
4. Click the Optimize icon:
Choose different views:

1. Select View>Auto Rotation
2. Scroll on the right side bar to zoom-in
and zoom-out of the picture Look at the distance between the
3. Select View>Animate Optimization to balls and identify clusters
see the optimization process of
– the larger the distance, the
taking a multidimensional relationship
more tension between them,
to a 3 dimensional picture.
depending on the calculated,
If the picture of the molecule has not
stabilized throughout the 100 step optimised aggregation of all
process, the interpretation of the correlations.
molecule is less accurate. You can
try again with fewer items. Tip Check the molecular
dynamics by adding a new
item and seeing the impact
on the overall structure
Page 36
Creating Screen Shots
Integrating Think Tools output into PowerPoint presentation is a simple

process:
Transfer the screen shot to PowerPoint:
1. With the Think Tools file open, press the “PrtSc” Key on your computer
keyboard (not computer screen)
2. Open PowerPoint
3. On a blank slide, click the Paste icon:

The Think Tools screen shot will be superimposed on the blank slide.
4. Highlight the screen shot by clicking it.

Move the mouse to the corner of the screen shot and adjust it to make it
smaller.
5. Trim the screen shot as necessary with the Crop icon: from the Picture
Toolbar
-The Picture Toolbar can be found under: View>Toolbars>Picture
Create a hyperlink:
1. Highlight the screen shot
2. Select Slide Show>Action Settings
3. Select “Hyperlink to”
4. Click the down arrow
5. Select “Other File” at the bottom of the list
6. Browse and choose the Think Tools file
7. In the “Slide Show” mode, move the mouse over the screen shot and click on
it
8. A dialog box will appear asking whether or not to open the file. Click Yes.
Insert a header and a bullet point communicating the purpose of the

screen shot
Page 37
Think Tools AG
Genferstr. 21
For more information: TT, Inc. TT AG
Zürich, Switzerland
e-mail: support@thinktools.com TT Asia
Tel: +41-1-204 60 10
Internet: www.thinktools.com Fax: +41-1-204 60 19
TT SA

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Handbook

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How to use this Handbook

UThe ‘Getting started’ and ‘Analyze’ sections include helpful boxes:

Transparency and real time interactivity

Unlimited areas of application

Knowledge capturing and communication

Individual, team and organizational use

Functions Key Questions

Add key factors:

Add definition to key factors:

3. To link a document that supports the Excessive attachments will

Create links between factors: How do the key factors

Determine the strength of the

2. In the Dialog box, the strength

Remove a factor or a link:

Identify feedback loops:

Functions Key Questions

Once all the Key Areas and Options

Open Compatibility Matrix:

How do each of these

Assess Overall Compatibility:

3. Click the Save icon: before closing

In this example, the first line on

The bars that appear in gray boxes

2. Use the down arrow key to see other

3. Although there may be several options or

Also, if a combination is identified as a

To identify the most viable Which strategy is most

If there is an interesting strategy, test

Assign weights to Key Areas in Scenario Do the key areas have

Assign probability to Options if the

Once the weights and probabilities have

The Evolutionary Process starts by generating

Use the Evolution Tree to navigate If the Evolution Tree icon is

Each green circle represents a

Display both Evolution Tree window

2. Consistency Check between Option

Functions Key Questions

Introduce the time dimension: Tip Time Dimension does not

Determine the relative importance

Outcome of the input is displayed in the bar chart to the

To view single or multiple charts

-Use “View 2” for real-time

2. For the same time frame in a

Right-mouse click in the pane to display

1. Matrix: Use to enter inputs

Functions Key Questions

Define and enter subject matter:

Define and enter potential outcomes:

4. Add detail by clicking the Detailed

Assign Probabilities to each risk How likely is it (on a scale

Remove a risk scenario or a link:

Change probability assignments to see

Identify critical points that influence the

Tip If a certain risk scenario has

Functions Key Questions

IF THIS IS THE FIRST TOOL BEING

3. Assign a name that describes this thinking

IF YOU HAVE ALREADY USED OTHER

Add additional files:

Additional examples of Reasoning Architectures