National Adaptation Strategy To Address Climate Change Tourism Sector in Barbados Synthesis of The

NATIONAL ADAPTATION STRATEGY
TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE TOURISM SECTOR IN BARBADOS SYNTHESIS OF THE TECHNICAL REPORTS
Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre

Belmopan, Belize
by the Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies University of the West Indies Cave Hill Campus, Barbados
Prepared for the
February 2009
TechnicalReport5C/MACC02092 Copyright2009byCaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre PublishedbyCaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre,Belmopan,Belize DigitalEdition(November2010)

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ISBN139789768236258(pdf)
The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the Authors and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of the Government of Barbados, the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre or the World Bank.
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 2 2.1 2.2 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................
INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................
REQUIREMENTS OF THE TERMS OF REFERENCE ................................................................................................ PREPARATION OF THE SYNTHESIS REPORT .............................................................................................................
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN BARBADOS ...........................................................
3.1 THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN BARBADOS................................................................ 3.2 ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY TO CLIMATE CHANGE.............................................................. MYTHOLOGY (METHODOLOGY?) AND RATIONAL.................................................................................................................... RESULTS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4 4.1 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 6
CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES AND THREATS TO TOURISM IN BARBADOS ...........................................................
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON COASTAL TOURISM SEA LEVEL RISE ........................................................................ THE DELCAN STUDY: THE WATER LEVELS FOR BARBADOS................................................................ THE CPACC STUDY - COASTAL VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ................................................ IADB STUDY: INTERMEDIATE RISK ASSESSMENT OF ST. PETER TOWNSHIP .......................................... CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES ............................................................................................... CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION................................................................................................ CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE LANDSCAPE................................................................................................ CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HEALTH (DISEASES) ............................................................................................. IMPACTS OF FLOODS AND DROUGHTS .................................................................................................................. INDIRECT IMPACTS............................................................................................................................................
REVIEW OF EXISTING ENABLING (POLICY, LEGISLATIVE AND INSTITUTIONAL) FRAMEWORKS.....................
POLICY REVIEW................................................................................................................................................ INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW ................................................................................................................................ LEGISLATIVE REVIEW .........................................................................................................................................
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS.........................................................................................................
6.1 COMPLY WITH EXISTING PLANNING REGULATIONS & POLICIES.................................................................................... 6.2 MAINSTREAM NEW INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGIES ........................................................................................... 6.3 INITIATE THE COLLECTION OF DATA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING.......................................................................... 6.4 COORDINATE THE TOURISM STRATEGY AND INDUSTRY SPECIFIC ADAPTATION PLANS WITH THE REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT (CDM) STRATEGY. ........................................................................................................................ 6.5 CROSS CUTTING AREAS ................................................................................................................................ 6.5.1 Political.................................................................................................................................................... 6.5.2 Policy ....................................................................................................................................................... 6.5.3 Legislation ............................................................................................................................................... 6.5.4 Institutional ............................................................................................................................................. 6.5.5 Funding.................................................................................................................................................... 6.5.6 Research.................................................................................................................................................. 2
6.5.7 6.5.8 6.6
Human resource development................................................................................................................ Public awareness and outreach .............................................................................................................. AGENCY LEVEL ACTIONS ................................................................................................................................
Figures Fig. 1: Relationship between Growth in Tourism Value-Added and Total Real GDP Expansion (Barbados) Fig. 2: % Share of Total Employment (1976) Fig. 3: % Share of Total Employment (2006) Fig. 4: Tourism as a Percentage of Exports (Barbados) Fig. 5: Relationship between Growth in Travel Receipts and the Current Account Balance (Barbados) Fig. 6: Schematic Representation of Supply-side Simulation Model Fig. 7: Impact of Climate Change on Barbados TCI Fig. 8: Impact of Climate Change on the US TCI (JFK International Airport) Fig. 9: Impact of Climate Change on the UKs TCI (London, Heathrow Airports) Fig. 10: Impact of Climate Change on Spains TCI (Getafe) Fig. 11: Impact of Climate Change on Mauritius TCI (Rodrigues) Fig. 12: Monthly Rainfall Fig. 13: Schematic Representation of a Simplified Water Balance Scheme Fig. 14: Total Projected Water Demand (m3) Fig. 15: Water Balance with no Climate Change (m3) Fig. 16: Water Balance for all Cases (m3) Fig. 17: An Analysis of Demand for Water 2010, 2030, 2050 Fig. 18: The Barbados Tourism Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts Tables Table 1: Hurricane Strength Normalised Damage Estimates for the Caribbean Table 2: Hurricane Strength and Potential Infrastructural Damage Table 3: Potential Impact on Hotel Plant of Various Land Loss Scenarios Table 4: Potential Impact of Increased Hurricane Activity on Hotel Plant (20712100) Table 5: Potential Impact of Increased Hurricane Activity on Hotel Plant (20712100) Table 6: Scenarios for Future Sea Level Rise in Barbados Amount of Relative Sea Level Change (mm) by Year (A.D.) Table 7: Land Loss at Specific Sites on Barbados Coast Table 8: Summary of the Policy Recommendations related to Vulnerability (Climate Change) 3
Table 9: A Summary of the Recommendations for the Legal framework related to Vulnerability (Climate Change) Boxes Box 1: Emissions Scenarios for Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources. Box 2: Impact of Temperature Rise
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Most Caribbean countries have embraced tourism as one of the key planks of their development strategy. The main motivations behind this approach relate to the advantages the industry provides relative to other exports of goods and services: (1) it allows the destination to obtain economic benefits from characteristics that normally could not be traded (natural and cultural attractions); (2) locally produced goods can be sold at a premium to visitors, and; (3) goods that could not be exported due to insufficient export capability can be sold to tourists. The Barbados tourism product is diverse. However, tourist demand for natural coastal attractions and amenities (beaches, coral reefs, water sports, swimming, snorkelling, sunbathing etc.) and the historical concentration of tourism infrastructure in a narrow strip adjacent to the coast, confirms the coastal character of Barbados tourism product. The impacts of climate change will give rise to a range of direct and indirect impacts that will affect the quality of the natural and built tourism product (supply) and the choices that tourists will make in choosing or not choosing to holiday in Barbados (demand). In order to better understand the implications of climate change for tourism in the Caribbean and the options for addressing these projected climate change impacts, the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) commissioned the preparation of a National Tourism Sector Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change in Barbados. The Tourism Sector Adaptation Strategy focused on three critical areas producing four technical reports: The climate change impacts to which Barbados is likely to be exposed, specifically: o The impact of sea level rise on the coastal elements of Barbados tourism product and o changing precipitation and consumption patterns on the available potable water supply on which the tourism industry and the population of Barbados depend The economic implications of climate change for the Barbados tourism industry. The status and configuration of the existing enabling environment (institutional, legal, and policy) and its ability to support and facilitate climate change adaptation planning and action in the tourism industry.
This Synthesis Report brings together the information from four technical studies, each designed to identify and characterise an aspect of the climate change induced vulnerabilities to which the Barbados tourism industry may be exposed. The technical reports highlight the climate change induced impacts that will have the greatest affect on the Barbados tourism product.
The findings of the reports indicate that the greatest threats to the Barbados tourism industry from climate change are posed by sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns leading to severe water shortages. Coastal Vulnerability Assessment The results of the three coastal vulnerability studies: Delcan (1994), CPACC (2001), and IADB (2007) corroborate each other in characterising the extent of the threat to tourism, human settlement, and national infrastructure. The independent findings of the economic vulnerability study provide further corroboration of the projected impacts of sea-level rise. The main findings of the technical studies were: DELCAN (1994) The results indicated that during the 100 year hurricane, 70% of the beaches could be subjected to inundation, 10% to occasional overtopping and 20% will be dry. During the 50 year hurricane, 59% of the reaches could be subjected to inundation, 19% to occasional overtopping and 22% will be dry. These results were verified, in a qualitative manner, using historical observations of flooding and shoreline damage. On most of the south coast, extensive flooding was predicted up to and inland of the main highway. Atlantic Shores, St Lawrence, Cacrabank (now Coral Mist) and most of Hastings Rock are all located on high cliffs and therefore escape severe flooding. The area around Graeme Hall was predicted to be extensively flooded, to 1 km inland. A zone of flooding, approximately 150 m wide was predicted through Carlisle Bay and parts of Bridgetown. On the west coast, the flood zone was up to 300 m wide near Brandons, the southern part of Holetown, and Speightstown to Heywoods. Other areas that were predicted to have flooding up to 150 m inland included Fitts Village, Paynes Bay, Goddings and Mullins.
CPACC (2001) For all three sea level rise scenarios extensive flooding was predicted up to and inland of the main highway for most of the south coast. The findings for the coastal areas with respect to inundation were the same, and for the larger scenarios, greater than those of the Delcan Study. Due to the very wide beach and offshore bathymetry at Sandy Lane, the inundation limits for all three scenarios were seaward of the coastal road. Critical infrastructure affected included the Bayview Hospital, Government Headquarters, the Barbados Light and Power Limited, most of the major hotels and a number of the fire and police stations located on the coast.
IADB (2007) Low-lying linear settlements are located in close proximity and parallel to the coast. A number of heritage properties in the mapped hazard zone of Speightstown that are in good condition. A fishing village at Six Mens Bay at the north end of this stretch. New major high value resort properties constructed within the storm surge zone. Over 300 structures and 1,000 persons potentially at risk. 13% of the population at risk are over age 65 years of age. The impact of a 150 year event is estimated to be between US$7million and 20 million.
Water Resources Assessment In the case of the Eastern Caribbean under all three climatic scenarios examined (A1B, A2 and B2), the projections are for a substantially drier wet season (July-November), an even drier dry season (March-April) and a marginally wetter spell at the end of the year. Economic Assessment Supply-side impacts The results suggest that the greatest supply-side impact of climate will be due to sea level rises. There is a relatively high risk of damage to a significant proportion of the hotel plant due to land loss. These effects could also be exacerbated by the effects of storm surges. In addition, those hotels that are not directly affected could be indirectly affected through higher premiums. Demand Side Impacts The analysis of the likely changes in the Tourism Comfort Index (TCI) for Barbados as well as two of its major source markets suggest that the demand for travel to the island could decline owing to the changes in climatic patterns. While the specific forecast for various scenarios differ somewhat, in general the projections are quite similar: by the end of the 21st century a deterioration in Barbados TCI combined with an improvement in the TCIs of our main source markets is likely to reduce monthly tourist arrivals by between 24 and 40 percent. This suggests that the tourism industry could be about a third of the size than it is at present. The traditional tourist season is likely to be hardest hit, as these months could become relatively less attractive to visitors. The reduction in the size of the tourism industry is likely to have multiplier effects on the entire economy due to the relative importance of the industry to the Barbadian economy. As a result, policymakers in Barbados will need to develop alternative industries to offset the declining returns from the tourism industry.
Recommendations The recommendations from the four technical reports were captured under four umbrella recommendations. 1. Comply with existing planning regulations and policies to reduce vulnerability to current hydro-meteorological extremes, and in the process strengthen the enabling environment to serve as the platform for climate change adaptation. 2. Initiate the collection of data for climate change modeling. With the exception of the IADB study, which was limited to a small area of Barbados coast, Barbados coastal vulnerability data is more than a decade old. There is a pressing need to augment the existing data that was used in the Delcan (1994), CPACC (2001) and IADB (2007) coastal vulnerability studies with data from new and improved models, projections and surveys. Technology for collecting survey data and modeling future climate scenarios is advancing rapidly, providing more accurate data for planning and decision making. 3. Mainstream new information and technologies in support of climate change adaptation planning into the national and sectoral planning and policy processes. The new data and information must be formally incorporated into the national and sectoral planning and decision making processes. 4. Coordinate the National Adaptation Strategy for the Tourism Sector and industry specific adaptation plans with the Regional Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Strategy. The regionally endorsed CDM Strategy provides a logical framework within which climate change adaptation can be promoted and mainstreamed at the regional, national and local levels through the Tourism Sub-committee. The value of this approach lies in the fact that disaster risk reduction is the pragmatic, conceptual and operational entry point through which to engage stakeholders in the Caribbean.
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2.1
INTRODUCTION
Requirements of the Terms of Reference
The consultants were required to undertake 5 specific tasks according to the Terms of Reference. These were: 1. An economic review and analysis of the current status of the tourism sector. 2. A comparative review and assessment of the institutions, organizations and resources at the national level to complement the assessment done in the pilot Vulnerability Capacity Assessment (VCA). 3. A technical review of climate change issues and threats facing the tourism sector in Barbados with special reference to the vulnerability and adaptation assessments and studies conducted and the predicted adverse effects of climate change. 4. An assessment of the current policy framework and future requirements to fully comply with implementation of the strategic climate change options through national mechanisms in Barbados. 5. Engage key stakeholders to buy in to the strategy development through socialization. The successful completion of these tasks was expected to result in the following outputs and deliverables: 1. An economic sector review 2. An institutional review 3. Analysis of climate change issues and threats 4. A policy assessment and options 5. Presentation of a draft report to a national workshop 6. A final report, including a plan of action The final strategy paper is required, among other things, to identify priorities and outline a plan of action. This includes recommendations on costs, capacity building measures, recommendations on policy, legislation and other interventions and identification of sources of funding among others to support the strategy. The consultants w ere also required to facilitate a consultative workshop with stakeholders where findings, conclusions and recommendations were to be presented and comments and views recorded for inputs into final report and strategy. This report is a synthesis of the outputs 1 to 5, and represents output number 6.
2.2
Preparation of the Synthesis Report
This Synthesis Report brings together the information from four related but separate technical studies, each designed to identify and characterise an aspect of the climate change induced vulnerabilities to which the Barbados tourism industry may be exposed. The technical reports highlight the climate change induced impacts that will have the greatest affect on Barbados tourism product, sea-level rise and water scarcity. The severity of the impacts that will result from climate change induced sea-level rise and water scarcity provide the basis and the justification for the focus of the economic assessment. Climate change will alter the prevailing hydro-meteorological and oceanographic conditions from those with which the tourism industry and its patrons are familiar and able to cope, to new conditions. These unfamiliar conditions will include extreme hydro-meteorological and oceanographic events (e.g. hurricanes, storm surges, flooding, droughts, temperature extremes) which will damage tourism infrastructure and change the characteristics of the tourism product, and hence the desirability of the product in the estimation of its consumers (tourists). These impacts and transformations will have measurable socio-economic consequences for the tourism industry and Barbados. The probable negative climate change impacts and resulting transformations in the tourism product can be anticipated, estimated, and quantified to guide and assist in the development of measures to prepare for, and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on the tourism industry. This process is called adaptation 1. For adaptation to be effective and sustainable the impacts of climate change must be assessed and addressed within an enabling environment of supportive institutional arrangements, polices, legislation, incentives, and disincentives. The studies that were undertaken focused on three critical areas; The climate change impacts to which Barbados is likely to be exposed, specifically: o The impact of sea level rise on the coastal elements of Barbados tourism product and o changing precipitation and consumption patterns on the available potable water supply on which the tourism industry and the population of Barbados depend
Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or, their effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation: Anticipatory adaptation Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed. Autonomous adaptation Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Planned adaptation Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired sta te.
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The economic implications of climate change for the Barbados tourism industry. The status and configuration of the existing enabling environment (institutional, legal, and policy) and its ability to support and facilitate climate change adaptation planning and action in the tourism industry.
The focus on the coastal elements of the Barbados tourism product and water resources reflect that fact that (a) the tourism product is substantially coastal in character and location despite attempts to diversify the product, and (b) the evidence indicates that availability of potable water will be the most significant controlling influence on the viability of the industry.
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ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN BARBADOS
3.1 The economic importance of the Tourism Industry in Barbados Most Caribbean countries have embraced tourism as one of the key planks of their development strategy. The main motivations behind this approach relate to the advantages the industry provides relative to other exports of goods and services: (1) it allows the destination to obtain economic benefits from characteristics that normally could not be traded (natural and cultural attractions); (2) locally produced goods can be sold at a premium to visitors, and; (3) goods that could not be exported due to insufficient export capability can be sold to tourists (Mihalic, 2002). As a result of these characteristics, the industry accounts for one-third of all trade, a quarter of foreign exchange receipts and one-fifth of total employment in the Caribbean (de Albuquerque and McElroy, 1995). Numerous authors have also attributed most of the regions growth to the industry (see for example Latimer, 1985; Modeste, 1995). Tourism in Barbados dates back to colonial times when wealthy British citizens would visit the island on holiday, but it was not present on a large scale until the late 1950s and early 1960s. Currently, the sector is supported by a number of public as well as private national organisations, including the Ministry of Tourism, the Barbados Tourism Authority (BTA), the Barbados Tourism Investment Inc. (BTI), the Tourism Advisory Council, the Needhams Point Development Inc. and the Barbados Conference Services Ltd. in the public sector and the Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA) and the Tourism Development Corporation in the private sector. These organisations span both the public and private sectors and have developed over the years to address specific needs associated with furthering the evolution of the sector. According to the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO), a regional tourism organisation, these institutions budgeted US$22.1 million in 2006 to promote the country in various regions across the world. In the early years of its existence as an independent nation, Barbados was primarily an agriculture-based economy, with some input from the manufacturing sector. By the 1970s, however, the decline of agriculture, mainly due to the decline in the sugar industry, forced the government to develop alternative sources of value-added. Due to the advantage that the country already had in this area, as a result of the pre-existence of loyal British tourists and the physical landscape, the promotion of the tourism industry was a natural choice. As a result, the tourism industry averaged double-digit growth during the 1970s and contributed more than 12% of real GDP. By the end of 2007, tourism value-added accounted for 15.5% of real GDP, surpassing both manufacturing and agriculture, both of which had declined considerably during those three decades (from 12.3% to 6.6% and from 10.7% to 5.4%, respectively). Furthermore, as shown pictorially in Fig. 1, downturns in tourism activity tended to lead to downturns in total value added, indicating the countrys strong reliance on the sector. 12
This strong expansion over the period 1977-2007 the growth in the sector (2.7%) surpassed that of GDP by 0.9 percentage points led to increasing employment in the sector. Available employment statistics on the tourism industry on its own only date back to 1991, but even with this short time span, the importance of the sector can still be seen (see Figs. 2 and 3). On average during the period 1991-2006, the tourism sector was amongst the top five employers in Barbados and, by the end of the period, employed more persons than the manufacturing sector, the third largest employer at the end of the seventies. Figure 1 Relationship between Growth in Tourism Value-Added and Total Real GDP Expansion (Barbados)
%
30 20 10 0 -10 -20
19 77 19 79 19 81 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 03 20 05 198 3 200 1
Tourism
Total Real GDP
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Figure 2 % Share of Total Employment (1976)
Figure 3 % Share of Total Employment (2006)
Other 11% Construction 9% Agriculture 10% Government 36%
Other 20%
Miscellaneous Sevices 25%
Tourism 10% Government 21% Commerce 13%
Manufacturing 15%
Commerce and Tourism 19%
Construction 11%
With respect to wages, growth in salaries in the tourism sector outpaced that of agriculture and manufacturing over the period for which statistics are available (1970 to 1994), and even surpassed total wage growth for the entire economy. As the tourism industrys contribution to GDP grew, so too did its importance within the balance of payments of Barbados. As shown in Fig. 4, between 1971 and 2006, tourism earnings (represented by net travel credits) accounted for 65.4% of total export earnings. In fact, tourism has grown from earning roughly 50% of total exports in the 1970s, to 55% in the 1980s and 73% in the 1990s. Only in the last few years has tourisms share of exports started to decline somewhat, leading to an average of 67.9% between 2000 and 2006.
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Figure 4 Tourism as a Percentage of Exports (Barbados)

% 100
80
60
40
20
0
19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05
Tourism
Given the importance of the tourism industry, downturns in the sector tend to have a severe negative impact on the current account balance (a relationship depicted in Fig. 5). The shaded parts of the figure show clearly that when the tourism industry does not fare well in a given year, especially in the 1980s, there is a corresponding deterioration of the external current account balance. Prior to 1980, the current account was driven primarily by agricultural exports, while from the late 1990s onwards surging retained imports have outweighed any positive contribution from the tourism industry. Figure 5 Relationship between Growth in Travel Receipts and the Current Account Balance (Barbados)
$ '000 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800
19 71 19 73 197 5 19 77 197 9 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 198 9 19 91 199 3 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 200 3 20 05
% 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
Current Account Balance
Tourism
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The ability of policymakers to diversify the economy away from sugar, has allowed Barbados to achieve an enviable level of development. Per capita income in Barbados at the end of 2006 was US$9850 or about US$5180 above the average for other Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and US$4575 more than the average for the rest of the Caribbean. These economic achievements have been leveraged to finance and ensure a fairly high level of social development. In the most recent United Nations Human Development Report, the nation was ranked 31st in the world, one of the highest for any SIDS included in the index (UNDP, 2007). Given the importance of the tourism industry to the future growth and development of Barbados, it is important to monitor and evaluate potential risks to the industry. One potential risk factor is climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that for the period 1990 to 2100, average global temperatures are likely to rise by 1.4-3.2C, while sea levels should increase by 9-88 centimetres. Barbados and SIDS in general are highly susceptible to rises in the sea-level since this might lead to significant beach erosion resulting from the combination of higher sea levels and increased storm activity. This erosion is likely to affect coastal infrastructure such as roads and hotels. Belle and Bramwell (2005), through the use of semi-structured interviews and questionnaires, collected views on the likely impact of climate change on the Barbados tourism industry. Most respondents felt that damage to coastal tourism facilities was very likely, with large proportions also indicating that there will be beach changes, higher sea levels and damage to the marine ecosystem. Similar views were shared by industry managers and policymakers. Despite the potential impact that climate change could have on the tourism industry in Barbados, there exists little or no previous research in this area in Barbados. The main studies have been conducted by Delcan in 1994 and CPACC in 2001 and IADB 2007. This report draws on these as well as the technical reports prepared as part of this study to present a summary of the potential impacts that climate change will have on Barbados tourism industry. Following this, recommendations are made for strategic directions that Barbados should follow to ensure that the industry adopts the appropriate adaptation measures to protect this vital industry from the impacts of climate change. Since the coastal components of Barbados tourism product constitute the basis of the tourism industry and are at greatest risk from climate change, econometric evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on the Barbadian tourism industry focuses on the coastal tourism product. 3.2 Economic Vulnerability of the Tourism Industry to Climate Change
Mythology (Methodology?) and Rational Supply Side The tourism industry provides a service to its clients, tourists. As a result, tourism supply is normally measured in terms of carrying capacity. The World Tourism Organisation defines the capacity of a particular destination as the level of visitors use an area can accommodate (WTO/UNEP, 1992). There are three main conceptual bases for carrying capacity: (1) social; (2) 16
economic, and; (3) ecological. Social capacity refers to the visitor density at which the number of unplanned interactions among individuals begins to reduce their enjoyment of the experience. Economic carrying capacity, on the other hand, is the number of visitors that maximises the net revenue of the destination (number of visitors times per capita payment less infrastructure and support costs), while ecological carrying capacity is the number of visitors that produces no irreversible ecological change to the ecosystem of the particular destination. This study employs the economic measure of carrying capacity. Climate change can impact on the economic carrying capacity of Barbados, since it is likely to lead to the loss of some hotel plant due to sea level rise, flooding as well as increased storm activity. On the basis of the Delcan and CPACC reports, the Ministry of Physical Development Environment (2001) reported that the sea level was likely to rise by 0.2m by 2020, 0.5m by 2050 and 1m by 2100 for the south and west coasts of the island. In addition, on the south coast a zone of flooding is predicted in excess of 1 km inland, while on the west coasts it could be up to 300m in some areas. To simulate the effects of these various scenarios, information on the location and distance of hotels, guesthouses and apartments in Barbados was collected. This information was then employed to identify the hotels as well as the potential number of rooms that could be affected in the scenarios described above. Climate change is also expected to lead to rise in extreme hurricane events. While the total number of hurricanes is unlikely to change by the end of the 21st century, the total number of category five hurricanes (wind speeds greater than 155 mph) are expected to increase by a third to 5, the number of category four hurricanes to 36 and the number of category three storms to 92. Based on estimates by Williams and Sheets (2001), the probability of any of these hurricanes affecting Barbados is 8.3 percent, while the probability of a major hurricane is 2.3 percent. Because of the rarity of hurricane events impacting on Barbados, there is little historical data to use regarding the potential impact of these climatic conditions on the economy. As an alternative, therefore, one can use the experiences of other Caribbean islands to draw inferences regarding the impact of these events. Table 1 compares hurricane strength to the normalized damage estimates for various Caribbean countries. The results suggest that category 1 storms are likely to cause a loss of GDP of about 5 or less percent. In contrast, a category 5 storm causes damage over and above the countrys total national income.
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Table 1: Hurricane Strength Normalised Damage Estimates for the Caribbean Country
St. Kitts and Nevis US Virgin Islands Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands St. Maarten Puerto Rico St Lucia Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Belize Belize
Name Hurricane/Date
of Saffir/Simpson (SS) scale

Category 2 Category 1 Category 1 Category 3 Category 3 Category 3 Category 3 Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Category 5 Category 1
Georges/SeptemberOctober 1998 Georges/SeptemberOctober 1998 Georges/SeptemberOctober 1998 Marilyn/September 1995 Luis/August-September 1995 Hugo/September 1989 Allen/August 1980 Claudette/July 1979 Kendra/OctoberNovember 1978 Eloise/September 1975 Carmen/AugustSeptember 1974 Hattie/October 1961 Abby/July 1960
Normalised Damage Estimates (1998 US Dollars) $800 million $100 million $3.5 billion $3.1 billion $2.7 billion $1.5 billion $617 million $2 million $17 million $458 million $8 million $1 billion $11 million
GDP (US Dollars) $287 million $1.8 billion $57 billion $1.8 billion n.a. $57 billion $658 million $57 billion $57 billion $57 billion $57 billion $689 million $689 million
% of GDP 279% 5% 6% 172% n.a. 3% 94% <1% <1% <1% <1% 145% 2%
Table 2 provides a summary of the characteristics of various classifications of storms as well as potential infrastructural damage estimates. The table suggests that while a category 1 storm is likely to cause storm surges up to 1.7 meters and damage to about 5 percent of the infrastructure, a category 5 could affect more than 75 percent of the hotel plant and cause surges of more than 6 metres. Table 2: Hurricane Strength and Potential Infrastructural Damage Potential Infrastructural Damage Saffir/Simpson (SS) Maximum Sustained Wind Speed Storm (m/s) Surge(m) scale
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 33-42 43-49 50-58 1.0-1.7 1.8-2.6 2.7-3.8 3.9-5.6 >5.6 No major damage to buildings (5%) Moderate damage to buildings (10%) Extensive damage to buildings (35%) Extreme damage (50%) Catastrophic damage (75%)
Category 4 59-58 Category 5 >69 Source: Gray, et al and Authors estimates.
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Combining the information on the projected number of storms and strike probabilities, allows the researchers to simulate the possible impact of increased hurricane activity on tourism capacity in the Caribbean. A schematic representation of the model is provided in Figure 6. Figure 6 Schematic Representation of Supply-Side Simulation Model
Sea level rise
Land loss
Flooding and inundation
Hurricane activity Wind speed
Hotel Plant
Demand side One of the most important elements of the destination experience is climate. The TCI, discussed earlier, provides researchers with a numerical measure of the effects that climate can have on a visitors experience. A change in the TCI of the destination or that of its major source countries can therefore have an impact on the demand for travel. The main modification to the original TCI is that the total hours of sunshine was replaced by mean visibility. This modification was done to account for the negative effects that poor visibility might have on the visitors experience. The climate data used in this study are monthly mean observations from 1973-2008. For Barbados, observations are taken at the Grantley Adams International Airport, for the UK at the London WEA Centre and for the US at John F. Kennedy (JFK) International Airport. Data on climate scenarios are obtained from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The database provides projections from four models: (1) the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Coupled Global Climate Model, CGCM2, (Flato and Boer, 2001); (2) Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO2, (CSIRO, 1996); (3) Parallel Climate Model, PCM, (Washington et al., 2000), and; (4) the UKs 19
Meteorological Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HADCM3). Four emissions scenarios (A1, A2, B2 and B1) outlined by the IPCC are also examined. The emissions scenarios assume that the main driving forces of future greenhouse gas trajectories will continue to be demographic change, social and economic development, and the rate and direction of technological change. The A1 and B1 scenarios are based on the low International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 1996 population projections: the world population is expected to rise to 8.7 billion by 2050 and fall toward 7 billion by 2100 due to a reduction in fertility as well as mortality. In contrast, the B2 scenario uses the long-term United Nations (UN) Medium 1998 population projection of 10.4 billion by 2100, while the A2 scenario assumes a high population growth of 15 billion by 2100 owing to a significant decline in mortality for most regions (see IPCC, 2000, for greater details). All scenarios exclude surprise or disaster scenarios and do not consider additional climate initiatives, such as the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol. The four models and four emission scenarios provide 16 combinations of climate model and emission scenarios that cover 93 percent of the possible range of global climate change envisaged by the IPCC. Since each of the scenarios is just as likely, the average of t e 16 h scenarios is employed, as well as one standard deviation below and above. These forecasted climate indicators are used to calculate anticipated change in the TCI for Barbados as well as the US and UK and therefore present an assessment of the change in the tourism features of both Barbados as well as two of its major source markets. Country-Specific Model The TCI offers an assessment of the potential implications that climate impact has on the attractiveness of a destination. It does not, however, present a quantitative assessment of the prospective impact on tourism demand. To obtain such an estimate, a standard demand model is augmented with the TCIs for Barbados as well as that for its main source markets. The study utilises monthly data over the period 1973M1 to 2007M12. Observations on monthly tourist arrivals data is taken from the Central Bank of Barbados Economic and Financial Statistics (various issues). The income of source countries, proxied by the index of industrial production, prices and the exchange rate are all taken from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)s International Financial Statistics (IFS) (online edition). Since monthly observations on air fares are unavailable over the sample period, oil prices are employed as a proxy under the assumption that these two variables should be highly correlated. Combining the scenarios for future climatic conditions has provided estimates of the direct effects of climate change on tourist arrivals to the island. In addition, merging this data with estimates of average visitor expenditure gives a dollar estimate of the impact on the tourism industry and the overall economy. 20
Global Model There are also possible indirect effects of climate change on the local tourism industry. These indirect effects are liable to occur as potential visitors from major source markets adjust their travel patterns as a result of climate change. An estimate of these substitution effects arising from climate change is obtained using the global climate model of Hamilton et al. (2005). The model is chosen since it takes into account the substitution effects resulting from climate change for large database of countries. The starting point of the model is the matrix of bilateral tourism flows. The model is then shocked under various scenarios for climate change to evaluate the indirect effects of climate change. Tourism supply is modelled as a function of the relative attractiveness of the destination, while tourism demand is determined by income in the source country as well as its climate. The simulation model works as follows: the number of tourists going on an international holiday is determined by the demand side of the model. These visitors are then allocated to various destinations based on their attractiveness. Merging this data with forecast of climate change in various destinations provides an estimate of the indirect effects of climate change. Results Supply-Side Impacts Three scenarios are considered and are in line with those outlined by the Ministry of Physical Development Environment (2001) expectations for increases in sea levels: (1) 0.2 metre rise in sea levels (2020) estimated to lead to a maximum of 3.3 metres of land loss; (2) 0.5 metre rise in sea levels (2050) estimated to lead to a maximum of 8 metres of land loss, and; (3) 1 metre rise in sea levels (2100) estimated to lead to a maximum of 32 metres of land loss. The simulated results for these three scenarios are provided in Table 3. The model suggests that given the proximity of most hotels to the beach, a 0.2 metre rise in sea levels could likely impact on about 12 hotels or about 7 percent of the total number of hotels in the island. These hotels account for 122 rooms or about 3 percent of the room stock. Assuming about a 56 percent occupancy rate, this translates into an annual reduction in revenue of about $3.5 million. The long-term projected rise in sea levels, about 0.5 and 1 metre, is likely to have more severe effects: both scenarios are likely to impact over 40 percent of hotels and lead to a reduction in revenue of around $100 million.
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Table 3: Potential Impact on Hotel Plant of Various Land Loss Scenarios

Land Loss (m)/Sea Level Rise(m) 3.3/0.2 m Number of Hotels Affected % of Hotel Plant 12 7.1 8/0.5 m 68 40.5 32/1 m 72 42.9
Number of Rooms Affected % of Hotel Rooms
122 2.7
2315 51.6
2487 55.4
Loss Revenue
3,475,785. 5
98,723,011. 5
105,886,574. 5
N.B.: Assumes a 56 percent occupancy rate for the year.
It is also likely that climate change can lead to greater tropical storm activity. To account for these effects the model combines information on the projected number of hurricanes, strike probabilities and likely devastation to evaluate the impact on the local industry. Although the numbers of devastating hurricanes are likely to rise, the expected impact on Barbados is likely to be small due to Barbados relatively low strike probability. For example, while 5 category 5 hurricanes are likely to pass through the region by the end of the 21st century, Barbados low strike probability implies that the expected damage to the hotel plant is relatively small (only 181 rooms over the period costing about $37,000 in loss revenue). In contrast, relatively more damage is to be expected from category 3 storms as about 92 of these are expected to pass through the region by the end of the 21st century, leading to expected loss revenue of about $2.5 million. Table 4: Potential Impact of Increased Hurricane Activity on Hotel Plant (2071-2100) by low strike probability
Type of Hurricane Category 3 (Expected Number = 92) Number affected Per year of rooms 11,992.0 399.7 4,692.5 156.4 180.6 6.0 Category 4 (Expected Number = 36) Category 5 (Expected Number = 5)
Loss Revenue Per year ($)
2,449,782.44 81,659.41
958,610.52 31,953.68
36,894.31 1,229.81
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The result above assumes a rather low strike probability, 8.3 percent, based on historical experience. It is likely that the past might not be a good indicator of future strike probabilities. Table 5 considers higher strike probabilities to investigate the potential impact on the hotel plant in the island. The table shows that if the expected total damage from storms affecting the island between 2071 and 2100 are likely to rise from $3.4 million to $6.3 million if the strike probability rises to 15 percent and $8.5 million if the strike probability rises to 20 percent. Table 7: Potential Impact of Increased Hurricane Activity on Hotel Plant (2071-2100) by high strike probability
Strike Probability = 15 percent Type of Hurricane Category 3 (Expected Number = 92) Number affected Per year of rooms 21,672.2 722.4 8,480.4 282.7 1,177.8 39.3 Category 4 (Expected Number = 36) Category 5 (Expected Number = 5)
4,427,317.7 147,577.3
1,732,428.7 57,747.6
240,615.1 8,020.5
Strike Probability = 20 percent Type of Hurricane Category 3 (Expected Number = 92) Number affected Per year of rooms 28,896.3 963.2 11,307.2 376.9 1,570.5 52.3 Category 4 (Expected Number = 36) Category 5 (Expected Number = 5)
5,903,090.2 196,769.7
2,309,904.9 76,996.8
320,820.1 10,694.0
The results provided above suggest that the greatest supply-side impact of climate will be due to sea level rises. There is a relatively high risk of damage to a significant proportion of the 23
hotel plant due to land loss. These effects could also be exacerbated by the effects of storm surges. In addition, those hotels that are not directly affected could be indirectly affected through higher premiums. Demand-Side Impacts This section of the report evaluates the potential effects of climate change on the demand by potential travellers to visit the island. Tourism Features One potential impact of climate change is that it can change the characteristics of the travellers home country as well as the tourist destination. If climate change makes the visitors home country much more attractive, it is likely that rather than vacationing abroad, many persons would choose to take their holidays at home. Similarly, if climate change makes the tourist destination less attractive to visit, this can also lead to a reduction in the number of travellers seeking to visit. To provide an empirical evaluation of these potential effects of climate change on Barbados tourism features, Barbados average Tourism Comfort Index (TCI) is calculated for the period 1973 to 2008 and the results are plotted in Figure 7. The figure suggests that on average, the best time to visit Barbados is between December and April. This finding matches well the traditional tourist season in the island: during these five months of the year, the island receives almost 50 percent of annual visitor arrivals. Figure 7 also plots the likely changes to Barbados tourism features occurring under the IPCCs four likely emissions scenarios. The results suggest a possible flattening out of the islands TCI under scenarios B1 and B2. The improvements in the islands TCI in the middle months of the year occur primarily as a result of a reduction in precipitation during the traditional rainy season. In contrast, under the A1 and A2 scenarios, the summer seasons are anticipated to be unbearable for visitors, due a rise in the average temperature in these months to 30oC, with even higher daily maximum temperatures. As a result, under both the A1 and A2 scenarios the TCI for Barbados is likely to decline.
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Figure 7 Impact of Climate Change on Barbados TCI

70.0 60.0 50.0 Max = 100 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul A1 Aug A2 Sep B1 Oct B2 Nov Dec
Historical Average
The demand for overseas trips by individuals in Barbados key source markets is also likely to be affected by climate change. Figures 8 and 9 provide the simulated results for the four likely emissions scenarios in the US (JFK International Airport) and UK (Heathrow Airport), respectively. In the case of the US, the TCI is forecasted to deteriorate under all four emission scenarios due to the combined effects of greater precipitation and higher temperatures. In contrast, the UKs TCI is anticipated to improve slightly, particularly during Barbadoss tourist season: December to April. The improvement in the UKs TCI occurs primarily due to a rise in average temperatures during these periods. Such a shift in the climatic patterns in the UK could potentially reduce the demand for trips to the island for travellers from this source market.
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Figure 8 Impact of Climate Change on the US TCI (JFK International Airport)

80.0 70.0 60.0 Max = 100 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul A1 Aug A2 Sep B1 Oct B2 Nov Dec
Historical Average
Figure 9 Impact of Climate Change on the UKs TCI (London, Heathrow Airport)
90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 Max = 100 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul A1 Aug A2 Sep B1 Oct B2 Nov Dec
Historical Average
In addition to an analysis of Barbados key source markets, it is also of interest to analyse the potential impact of climate change on potential competitors. Figures 10 and 11 plot the results for Spain and Mauritius, respectively. In the case of Spain, the TCI is forecasted to deteriorate under all four emission scenarios due to the combined effects of greater precipitation and 26
higher temperatures. In contrast, Mauritius TCI is anticipated to improve under all four emission scenarios. The improvement is anticipated to occur primarily due to a reduction in precipitation and lower maximum temperatures. Figure 10 Impact of Climate Change on Spains TCI (Getafe)
Historical Average
Figure 11 Impact of Climate Change on the Mauritius TCI (Rodrigues)

Historical Average
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Country-Specific Model The analysis of the likely changes in the TCI for Barbados as well as two of its major source markets suggests that the demand for travel to the island could decline owing to the changes in climatic patterns. The TCIs, however, cannot provide an estimate of the likely number of visitors that could be loss due to this deterioration in the tourism features of Barbados and improvement of those of our main source markets. To obtain such an estimate, a model of the demand for travel has to be employed. The coefficient of income is positive and statistically significant, suggesting that on average a 10 percent rise in the income of individuals in Barbados key source markets results in a 4 percent expansion in arrivals from that market. A rise in the relative TCI of Barbados also has a positive and statistically significant impact on tourist demand. This finding suggests that the climatic features of Barbados as well as its main source markets can have a significant influence on long-run tourist arrivals. The relative price of goods and services in Barbados compared to those in key source markets was negative and statistically significant. The results of analysis indicate that for every 1 percent increase in prices in Barbados above those of its main source markets, tourist arrivals fall by 0.3 percent. The results seem to indicate that visitors to the island are not very price sensitive, and this is probably reflective of Barbadoss reputation as an upmarket destination. While the specific forecast for various scenarios differ somewhat, in general the projections are quite similar: by the end of the 21st century a deterioration in Barbados TCI combined with an improvement in the TCIs of our main source markets is likely to reduce monthly tourist arrivals by between 24 and 40 percent. This suggests that the tourism industry could be about a third of the size than it is at present. The traditional tourist season is likely to be hardest hit, as these months could become relatively less attractive to visitors. The reduction in the size of the tourism industry is likely to have multiplier effects on the entire economy due to the relative importance of the industry to the Barbadian economy. As a result, policymakers in Barbados will need to develop alternative industries to offset the declining returns from the tourism industry.
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CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES AND THREATS TO TOURISM IN BARBADOS
The IPCC Working Group II 2007 report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability linked SIDS with the following foci of attention: climate change, issues in adaptation to climate change, coastal tourism, coral reef degradation and coral bleaching, wild faunal diversity/nature-based tourism and, extreme events. In a recent report concerning climate change and tourism UNEP (2008) stated that climate variable play a direct role with respect to tourist decision-making and activities and indirect effects also have substantial affects on tourism activities, perceptions of a location, and the capacity of firms to do business. However, it was also noted that it is difficult to isolate the direct observed impacts of climate change upon tourism activity (UNEP, 2008). The following sections detail some of the potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the Barbados tourism industry. 4.1 Climate Change Impacts On Coastal Tourism Sea Level Rise Sea level rise is expected to pose one of the greatest threats to tourism in Barbados. It will exacerbate wave and storm surge effects occurring with hurricanes. The island will remain vulnerable whether or not the trend in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes is linked to climate variability or climate change. Given the economic importance of the tourism industry to Barbados and the concentration of the major elements of the tourism product in a narrow swath adjacent to the shore line, there have been three major studies undertaken which looked at climate change and its effect on the coastline. In particular the impacts of sea-level rise under different scenarios were investigated. The first study was undertaken by Delcan International as part of the Feasibility Studies on Coastal Conservation. The key results of this study are contained in the report Water Levels for Barbados (Delcan 1994). The second study was undertaken by Caribbean Planning for Adaptation Global Climate Change Project (CPACC, 2001). The third study was a coastal risk assessment for the IADB funded Adaptation for Climate Change and Disaster Mitigation: Township Planning Strategies for Storm Surge in the Caribbean Project (Delcan, 2007). 4.1.1 THE DELCAN STUDY: THE WATER LEVELS FOR BARBADOS The ability to predict future sea levels (water levels) relative to the Barbados shoreline, under a range of weather conditions is an essential precondition to sound development planning and engineering design. The areas of design and planning in which this kind of information is essential include: a) structural design (including a structures elevation above sea level) of coastal and marine structures, such as groynes, piers, moorings, revetments b) the design of gullies and coastal drainage channels to maximize the efficiency with which storm water is discharged into coastal wasters
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c) water resources management and the prediction and estimation of salt water intrusions into coastal aquifers d) the modeling of natural sand transport by coastal waves and currents and beach stability modeling; and e) the establishment of minimum elevations above mean sea level for future construction of building foundations drainage structures, soak-away pits roads (with associated drainage) and other infrastructure. These design decisions have direct relevance for the level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme climatic events and climate change induced impacts to which structures in the tourism industry will be exposed. Two objectives of Delcans investigation of projected trends in coastal water levels around Barbados were: to provide sea-level data for use in coastal structure design to provide guidance in the establishment of regulatory measures pertaining to the use and development of the shoreline of the south and west coasts In order to produce information on future sea levels that took into account the affects of global climate change the Delcan team supplemented the standard water level components such as tidal, wave induced, and meteorological water levels with estimates of sea level rise. The resulting projections for sea water levels were intended to inform planning decisions and engineering design. At the time of the study, sea-level had been rising by approximately 3.0mm yr-1 over the historical period covered by tide gauge data. For planning purposes UNEP (1989) recommended that a projected rate of sea level rise of 5.0 mm yr -1 be used for Caribbean regional modelling. This rate of sea-level rise was used by Delcan to calculate future climate change induced water levels around Barbados. A high range scenario of 10mm yr-1 for climate change induced sea level on a global scale was adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990). The DELCAN Study used the historical (3.0mm yr -1), UNEP (5.0 mm yr -1), and IPCC (10mm yr-1) estimates of sea-level rise to calculate sea-levels (sea level stands) at five points in time between 2000 and 2100 (Table 6). The medium projection based on an estimated rate of sealevel rise of 5 mm-1 was used for design purposes.
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Table 6: Scenarios for Future Sea Level Rise in Barbados Amount of Relative Sea Level Change (mm) by Year (A.D.)
Design Criteria The selection of appropriate design criteria requires the assessment of acceptable levels of risk. For the purpose of the Delcan Study a 1:100 year risk level was proposed for flooding and a minimum 1:50 year for the design for coastal structures and a suggested freeboard (the distance between estimated water level and the top of a structure) of 0.5 m be applied to coastal structures. The predicted elevation of water levels was calculated and presented for the 50 and 100 year return period events respectively for each stretch of coastline (reach) on the south and west coasts of Barbados. For each reach information was provided on three parameters: The flooding potential within the reach. Design water depths at the shoreline for future detailed breaking wave height calculations. The suggested design elevation to withstand flooding. Study Results The results indicated that during the 100 year hurricane, 70% of the reaches could be subjected to inundation, 10% to occasional overtopping and 20% will be dry. During the 50 year hurricane, 59% of the reaches could be subjected to inundation, 19% to occasional overtopping and 22% will be dry. These results were verified, in a qualitative manner, using historical observations of flooding and shoreline damage. This information was mapped using Global Information System (GIS) technology to plot the flooding limits on the west coast at scales of 1:2500 and 1: 1250. The potential flooding areas were delineated. This information on flooding potential did not consider the flooding that may result from surface run-off caused by the intense rainfall which often accompanies tropical storms and hurricanes. 31
The elevated sea levels described in Delcan report will serve as a barrier causing rain-related run-off to accumulate over land to a depth that matches the increased sea-level. The volume of water expected to overtop a beach crest or shoreline structure during a storm was not determined. The areas of concern where flooding was predicted are listed below: On most of the south coast, extensive flooding was predicted up to and inland of the main highway. Atlantic Shores, St Lawrence, Cacrabank (now Coral Mist) and most of Hastings Rock are all located on high cliffs and therefore escape severe flooding. The area around Graeme Hall was predicted to be extensively flooded, to 1 km inland. A zone of flooding, approximately 150 m wide was predicted through Carlisle Bay and parts of Bridgetown. On the west coast, the flood zone was up to 300 m wide near Brandons, the southern part of Holetown, and Speightstown to Heywoods. Other areas that were predicted to have flooding up to 150 m inland included Fitts Village, Paynes Bay, Goddings and Mullins.
4.1.2 THE CPACC STUDY - COASTAL VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT The goal of the CPACC project was to build capacity in the Caribbean region for the adaptation to climate change impacts, particularly sea level rise. This was accomplished through the completion of vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning, and capacity building activities. Participating countries in CPACC included the majority of CARICOM members. These are: Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent, and Trinidad and Tobago. Pilot coastal vulnerability assessment studies were conducted for Barbados, Grenada and Guyana to assess the impact of sea-level rise on coastal infrastructure and tourism, water resources, and the tourism industry, respectively. For the vulnerability risk assessment undertaken for Barbados a number of methodologies were analysed. The methodologies analysed included the IPCC common methodology, the US Country Studies Programme, the South Pacific Island Methodology, the Research Institute for Knowledge and the UNEP Handbook methodology. Analysis of these methodologies revealed that the UNEP methodology was the most appropriate. The UNEP methodology offered the flexibility of the utilization of limited data (which is quite prevalent in the Caribbean) and has a good conceptual basis. The CPACC project amended the UNEP methodology by utilizing a screening assessment. The screening assessment is a rapid way of assessing the coastal vulnerability, identifying areas for detailed study as well as identifying priority needs. The screening assessment identified that climate change impacts to the tourism sector was of key concern for Barbados with the principal impacts expected from sea level rise being coastal erosion, inundation and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. 32
The scenarios used in the risk assessment were 0.2m sea level rise by 2020, 0.5m by 2050 and 0.9-1m by 2100. The pilot sites selected for Barbados focused mainly on the south and west coasts where the main tourism facilities were located. This corresponded to the areas assessed under the Delcan Study. Land loss and shoreline retreat utilizing the Bruun Rule was calculated for the pilot sites Holetown, Sandy Lane, Brighton and Speightstown on the west coast and Casuarina, Graeme Hall and Dover on the south coast. Land loss and shoreline retreat was also calculated for Cattlewash on the east coast. Table 7 below shows the land loss at different locations. Many of the pilot sites were key tourism areas, where any beach represents a critical compromise in the quality of the tourism product. Most beaches in Barbados are only 12-15m in width and have extremely gentle gradients thus any land loss at these beaches would be devastating. Table 7: Land Loss at Specific Sites on Barbados Coast
Utilizing the Water Levels Report for Barbados (Delcan 1994), further analysis was undertaken on predicted elevations of water levels during a hurricane event with an average return period of 100 years. For all three sea level rise scenarios extensive flooding was predicted up to and inland of the main highway for most of the south coast. The findings for the coastal areas with respect to inundation were the same, and for the larger scenarios, greater than those of the Delcan Study. Due to the very wide beach and offshore bathymetry at Sandy Lane, the inundation limits for all three scenarios were seaward of the coastal road. Critical infrastructure affected included the Bayview Hospital, Government Headquarters, the Barbados Light and Power Limited, most of the major hotels and a number of the fire and police stations located on the coast.
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4.1.3 IADB STUDY: INTERMEDIATE RISK ASSESSMENT OF ST. PETER TOWNSHIP Smith Warner International in association with Environmental Solutions Limited undertook a risk assessment for the Project Adaptation for Climate Change and Disaster Mitigation: Township Planning Strategies for Storm Surge in the Caribbean. The general objective of the Project was to facilitate a process that would assist the Caribbean region in the development of adaptation strategies and capacity needed to deal with the impact of severe weather events anticipated to occur in association with climate change. Jamaica and Barbados were used as pilot cases for the Caribbean in the preliminary phase of the project. The risk assessment report presented the general methodology followed in the assessment of the risks associated with storm surge hazards in the area of St. Peter Township, Barbados. This assessment included: The preparation of storm surge hazard maps for the area of St. Peter Township; The assessment of the vulnerability of the critical elements of each community to storm surge hazard; and The utilization of the storm surge hazard maps and the vulnerability assessment to determine risk associated with storm surge impact. The general approach to the exercise involved mapping infrastructure and resources using GIS technology and superimposing the extent of modelled projections of coastal inundation from storm surges enhanced by climate change induced sea-level rise. The residential communities and other land uses; demographics patterns, economic assets, infrastructure and other critical facilities were mapped and compared with overlays representing the modelled extent of future storm surge hazards. Legislation, governance and institutional capacity were also evaluated in the context of risk management requirements (Delcan, 2007). Storm surge hazard inundation maps were produced for the area of St. Peter Township, Barbados, and for the 50-yr, 100-yr and 150-yr return periods. Summary of Hazard Analysis and Mapping The main findings of the hazard analysis relating to methodological design and assessed vulnerability were: The data requirements necessary for the study of storm surge hazards included the knowledge of the hurricane history (history of extreme events) of the study area, as well as reliable bathymetric and topographic data. The need for the consideration of the issues related to global warming and climate change was apparent. As such, the study took into account the increase of the frequency and intensity of storms in the Caribbean, as well as the global sea level rise. 34
The wave/wind directions resulting in higher storm surge levels and significant wave heights at the shoreline were from the WSW, W, WNW and NW. The static storm surge levels predicted at the shoreline differ for the different areas of St. Peter Township, being higher in the areas of Cobblers Cove, Speightstown City Centre and Almond Beach Hotel, and lower in the rest of the areas. The maximum values (for each of the three return periods investigated) of the static storm surge level (SSSL) predicted at any of the shoreline areas and for any of the wave/wind directions considered, were selected as the critical levels for planning and preparedness activities. The predicted significant wave heights at the shoreline differ also for the different areas of St. Peter Township. The highest wave heights seem to occur in the area of Goddings Bay. The development of the study showed that the accuracy of the topographic data determines the accuracy of the prediction of the storm surge extent. As such, it was recommended that a safety band be applied, in addition to the predicted storm surge extent. The need for the study of the joint occurrence of inland flooding and storm surge flooding was also evident in order to assess the full vulnerability of the area. This represented a limitation in the completeness of the analysis of the coastal flood hazard associated with a hurricane event.
Summary of Vulnerability and Risk Issues The vulnerability and risk assessment exercises highlighted a number of features at risk, including: Low-lying linear settlements are located in close proximity and parallel to the coast. A number of heritage properties in the mapped hazard zone of Speightstown that are in good condition. A fishing village at Six Mens Bay at the north end of this stretch. New major high value resort properties constructed within the storm surge zone. Over 300 structures and 1,000 persons potentially at risk. 13% of the population at risk are over age 65 years of age. The impact of a 150 year event is estimated to be between US$7million and 20 million. 4.2 Climate Change Impacts On Water Resources
The most recent IPCC Assessment Report (2007) and the IPCC Technical Paper VI Climate Change and Water (2008) provide the outputs from multiple General Circulation Models (GCM) and they have indicated that for the Caribbean Region the impact of climate change will be a general decrease in precipitation, run-off and soil moisture coupled with an increase in evaporation and temperatures. 35
In order to generate more localised projections at higher levels of resolution than those produced by the IPCC using GCMs, the UWI Mona Climate Studies Group, the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre and UWI Cave Hill have collaborated to employ the Hadley Centres PRECIS regional climate modelling system to downscale the results of the Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The output from this modelling work has provided a more detailed insight into the regional effects of climate change on the Caribbean Region. Box 1: Emissions Scenarios for Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources. Three emission scenarios were used for developing PRECIS regional climate models; the A1B, B2 and A2, broadly speaking the A1B emissions scenario is one of continued economic growth with the introduction of more efficient energy technologies an a balanced use of all energy sources, in other words what might be called a medium emissions scenario. In contrast the A2 scenario is a high emissions based on: a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations; continuously increasing population; regionally oriented economic development; and slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. The B2, a low emissions scenario is based on assumptions of: continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2; emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability; intermediate levels of economic development; and less rapid and fragmented technological changes (IPCC, 2007).
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The main conclusions concerning temperatures and precipitation, arising from this modelling work are as follows. On average temperatures would exhibit an annual warming of between 1 and 5 C through the Caribbean, depending on the region and scenario. The warming would be greater in the northwest Caribbean territories of Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Belize than in the eastern Caribbean island chain. Also, there would be greater warming in the summer months than in the cooler and traditionally drier earlier months of the year. Many Caribbean islands are likely to become increasingly water-stressed in the future, as a result of climate change irrespective of the climate scenario employed (Arnell, 2004, Taylor et al., 2007). The pattern that emerges suggests a drying across the Caribbean basin. The decreases in rainfall range from 25% to 50% depending on the scenario and part of the Caribbean basin. The effect of climate change appears to be to enhance the existing climatic pattern making the wet and dry zones wetter and drier respectively, during the first 4 6 months of the year. For the months of May to October the entire Caribbean is up to 25% drier. Despite the widely varied conditions which drive the different climate scenarios, there is a large degree of agreement between the different climate models with respect to rainfall patterns in the Caribbean. In the case of the Eastern Caribbean under all three climatic scenarios examined (A1B, A2 and B2), the projections are for a substantially drier wet season (July-November), an even drier dry season (March-April) and a marginally wetter spell at the end of the year. Using the outputs of the PRECIS models to assess projected temperature and precipitation patterns for Barbados, there is agreement among models for significant increases in mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures by approximately 1C and 2C respectively by 2050. The impact of changes in precipitation patterns were assessed using the monthly percentage changes in rainfall for the three scenarios. The results indicate that rainfall will be significantly reduced during the wet season (Fig. 12). In terms of the impact on the relative length of the wet and dry seasons there appears to be a small amount of change with the dry season being perhaps slightly longer.
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Figure 12 Monthly Rainfall
There will be a shift in the number of days between significant rainfall events during the wet season. This would imply that more rain will fall during the average rainfall event, resulting in an increase in the intensity of rainfall, even though the overall volume of rain is decreasing. This change in rainfall pattern will have implications for flooding. With more rain falling in a shorter period of time, the percent of the rain that contributes to surface run-off will be expected to increase. With more of the reduced overall volume of rain contributing to surface run-off, less will seep into the ground to recharge the islands aquifers. This had implications for the availability of water for consumption. Water Availability Water availability was taken as a function of changes in overall water storage. In order to asses this using a simplified systems approach two components are necessary; knowledge of what is being input into and the outputs from the water system. The simplified approach adopted is shown in Fig. 13.
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Figure 13 Schematic Representation of a Simplified Water Balance Scheme
The basic input into the system is the rain that falls on Barbados. This is determined from existing records of rainfall and its distribution over the island. The outputs are the emissions, discharges and primary output the demand for water. Rainfall minus the emissions and discharges is taken as being the effective recharge to the aquifers that can be harnessed through abstraction in order to meet the various demands for water. The fact that there are no significant surface water resources; streams, lakes or other water bodies allows this simplified procedure to be adopted.
Summary of Water Demand The following graph (Fig. 14) summarises the overall projection of water demand. The sole factor accounting for the decrease in total demand is the introduction of leakage reduction measures. The reason for the hump between 2030 and 2040 is due to the fact that the magnitude of the reductions in domestic demand is offset by (less than) increases in agriculture and tourism. After 2040 this is reversed.
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Figure 14 Total Projected Water Demand (m3)

Total Demand
63,000,000 62,500,000 Demand m^3 62,000,000 61,500,000 61,000,000 60,500,000 60,000,000
Ye ar 20 13 20 17 20 23 20 27 20 31 20 35 20 41 20 45 20 11 20 15 20 19 20 21 20 25 20 29 20 33 20 37 20 39 20 43 20 47 20 49
Year
Water Balance Of interest for this study is the relative change in the water balance rather than the absolute amount in storage. The net change in water balance is therefore the difference between the recharge amount and the overall water demand. For the purposes of this exercise the period of analysis was taken as being between 2010 and 2050. Three cases were investigated. The baseline case has no allowance for climate change (Fig. 15) whist the remainder take into account the impact of climate change based on emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B2 on recharge (Fig. 16). Conservatively no corresponding allowance has been made for the impact of climate change on demand i.e. the observation that water consumption is positively correlated with climate has not been factored in and may therefore underestimate overall water demand in the future. The effects of climate change on recharge have been factored in by 2025: following discussions with Dr. Leonard Nurse. For the period 2010 2025 a linear transition between current and climate changed levels of recharge has been allowed for.
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Water Balance Results The results of the water balance are shown in the following figures. Figure 15 Water Balance with no Climate Change (m3)
Water Balance - No Climate Change
90,000,000 80,000,000 Change in Storage (m^3) 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0
20 32 20 36 20 40 20 42 20 44 20 46 20 48 20 50 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24 20 26 20 28 20 30 20 34 20 38
Year
Figure 16 Water Balance for all cases (m3)

Water Balance (m^3) - All Cases
100,000,000 Change in Storage (m^3) 50,000,000 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000
20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24 20 26 20 28 20 30 20 32 20 34 20 36 20 38 20 40 20 42 20 44 20 46 20 48 20 50
Year No climate change Emissions Scenario A1B Emissions Scenario A2 Emissions Scenario B2
All the graphs indicate that a precarious water availability situation is facing Barbados. Domestic consumption, losses and tourism demand account for 60% of the total water demand in 2010. Tourisms share of total water demand increases from 12% of the total in 2010 to 18% by 2050. In terms of the relative amounts met from the public water supply system hotels account for about 15% of the total in 2010.
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The potential impact of climate change on water availability is clearly shown in the combined graph above (Fig. 16). A serious and declining situation with respect to water availability will probably result from climate change. A 10% reduction in water demand from hotels would reverse this situation up to 2015 but thereafter water availability would decline. The modelling indicates that in order to make any significant difference the water consumption of every sector would have to be addressed. Figure 17 An Analysis of Demand for Water 2010, 2030, and 2050.
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If nothing were to be done about leakage and assuming, conservatively that it remained at 60% then by 2013 a deficit situation would be developing, according to these assumptions. Under this situation reducing hotel consumption in terms of the amount per guest night were by 10% an amount that is not unreasonable to expect, this would delay a deficit until 2016, buying three years of time. However, by itself it would not address the problems that will be encountered. What this broad scale analysis shows is that even under current conditions Barbados is facing a potentially serious water availability situation if nothing is done about the state of the water infrastructure. If climate change is factored in then the picture becomes little short of catastrophic. Under these conditions all sectors will have to play their part in the management of water resources, not just tourism. 4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Food Production In the case of food, Barbados aim is to become more self-sufficient in food production and to potentially meet some of the demands of the tourism sector. Currently, the greatest proportion of food and related products used in tourism are imported. Between 30 40% of all food imports are directed towards hotel and restaurant businesses and in the case of meat products such as beef this percentage is much higher. This is especially the case with the larger and chained hotel groups. The impact of climate change on agricultural production, processing and hence importation of food commodities and beverages in the region and beyond is likely to be of concern. At the very least purchase prices and importation costs seem set to increase significantly. Overall this may contribute towards a perception that tourism in Barbados is expensive, a trend that can be noted anecdotally. 43
4.4 Climate Change Impacts on the Landscape Barbados is best known as a sun-sand-sea tourist destination and although there are important tourist attractions, such as Harrisons Cave, beyond this they are not a primary draw in the attraction of tourists but rather an add-on. It is also true though that the current appearance of the landscape with its fields of sugar cane, travelers palms and vernacular architecture does add to the ambiance and attractiveness of the island. If this were to be seriously compromised then it may be that the attractiveness of the island would suffer. But this is likely to be a relatively minor consideration. The main point is that habitat and landscape aesthetics are unlikely to become a major factor and thus climate impacts on them would not adversely affect tourism in terms of the attractiveness of the island as a destination per se. A possible exception to this argument is any impact on golf related tourism which for some sections of the tourism market may be a major consideration. However, given that golf seems to flourish in some of the most unlikely places and with the money that seems to be available to sustain this pursuit it is more than likely that mitigation strategies would be adopted. 4.5 Climate Change Impacts on Health (DISEASES) Any definitive attempt to draw conclusions about the impact of a changed climate on human health should be treated with caution. Increased heat and greater variability in temperature and precipitation can generally be expected to lead to more health impacts, especially for heat waves, air quality, and water and food-borne diseases (Patz et al, 2001). However, because of the greater complexity involved in vector- and rodent-borne diseases, the direction and severity of health impacts for these categories of disease are not as clear (Patz et al., 2001). With greater climatic variability in rainfall and run-off it is likely that there will be an increased risk of water-borne pathogen contamination events as salinity and temperature patterns change (Comrie, 2007). Evidence from Bangladesh has linked cholera prevalence, a water-borne disease with fluctuations in ocean temperatures, pH and salinity. Increased coastal algae blooms may amplify cholera and enhance transmission (Epstein, 2000). Climate-related ecological changes may expand cholera transmission among populations in low-lying tropical areas (Moreno, 2006). Climate affects rodent ecology and therefore the diseases that they host. In the Southwest United States a correlation between El Nio events and outbreaks of rodentrelated diseases has been noted (Comrie, 2007). However, it is unclear if climate change will provide a more favourable ecological niche for rodents. If it does then this may become a potentially serious health risk, not just to visitors. Acute diarrhea diseases have been shown to have a higher incidence in Cuba during the warm and rainy season, when ecological conditions are favourable for bacteria, viruses and protozoan production (Ortiz et al., 2000), exhibiting a highly seasonal pattern. Well-known insect vector diseases include malaria and dengue fever both of which are transmitted by mosquitoes. Again, climate affects such diseases through the ecology and lifecycle of the mosquito. Outbreaks of the diseases are strongly correlated with major rainfall events and El Nio conditions may affect the incidence of malaria (Moreno, 2006). Higher temperatures lead to increased biting rates as well as more rapid larval development and 44
possible increases in species range (Epstein and Mills, 2005). Potentially increased transmission intensity of dengue fever may result from temperature rise (Moreno, 2006). Apart from these better known examples there are other climate-related vector-borne diseases, listed by Comrie (2007): encephalitis via insects; West Nile virus via birds and mosquitoes and; yellow fever virus via mosquitoes. The expected increased occurrence of extreme events is thought to be likely to lead to a greater risk of water-borne pathogens via flooding and higher water temperatures. In addition higher rainfall variability may amplify or alter the temporal patterns of rodent-borne diseases (Comrie, 2007). What is unclear is to what extent climate change might bring about threshold behaviour and unexpected events in disease outbreaks. Rainfall events that result in significant run-off and flooding are well-known to give rise to an increase in water-related diseases. Not only are freshwater supplies compromised but the contamination of waters and the close proximity of human populations to the contaminated waters increase the hazard and the risk of contagion and infection through contact or vector transmission (e.g. rodents and mosquitoes). It has been shown that elevated temperatures and flooding result in clustering of diseases involving mosquitoes, rodents and toxic algae. The increased prevalence of water-related diseases discussed above is likely to affect both residents and visitors. In the case of tourist visitors it may be reasonable to assume for a variety of reasons their degree of exposure would be less than for residents. Furthermore, given the limited period of time on the island it may be difficult to detect or determine cases of water related diseases and therefore the impact of climate change in this sector may be masked. Reporting, publicity and how government authorities react will probably be as important in determining the impact of climate induced effects on diseases as the actual diseases themselves. 4.6 Impacts of Floods and Droughts Increases in cyclone activity as well as the changes in rainfall patterns more intense rainfall events, will undoubtedly result in more flooding especially in the coastal areas. This is precisely the area where many of the hotels are established and therefore they will be at an increased risk of suffering flood related damage the health related aspects have been discussed in the preceding section. Hotels along the South and West Coasts have already experienced the damaging effects of flooding. This gives rise to increased costs arising from repairs, the costs associated with loss of business and costs associated with dealing with the immediate effects of flooding (evacuation, clean-up, over-time, etc.) as well as increased insurance premiums. Much of this cannot be directly recovered by increasing prices. Other costs would include making provision for back-up and standby systems. If an establishment were to experience foul flooding associated with sewage contaminated waters then the costs would be multiplied. Also if areas were inundated 45
to a significant depth or for an extended period of time then it can be months before it is possible to re-occupy those parts of a building affected. Fortunately, prolonged periods of flooding (several days) are unlikely. Hurricane damage will be similar but of a greater magnitude to that experienced through flooding. In addition, structural damage to buildings, infrastructure and surroundings also occurs, making post-event recovery more prolonged and costly. In the case of Grenada it is only recently that hotel tourism has recovered after Hurricanes Ivan and Emily in 2004 and 2005 respectively. Furthermore there are the impacts on infrastructure such as electricity generation and distribution, water production, roads and communications. All of these are vulnerable to damage. Barbados has been fortunate in not have experienced a tropical storm or hurricane since the 1950s. However, this is not to say that it will not be subject to such events in a climate changed future. Droughts, relative to flooding events exhibit their impacts less through direct effects and more through indirect impacts. They affect the availability of water and through that, water supply and the appearance of the landscape. For the most part it would be the impact on public water supplies that are the most significant for tourism. 4.7 Indirect Impacts The indirect impacts of climate change on tourism would be on: agricultural systems, landscape, ecology, biodiversity and habitat. All of which are inter-connected to a greater or lesser extent. Pressure on existing agricultural systems of production by climate change could give rise to a number of different responses. There could be a loss of productivity leading to the abandonment of some land by agriculture or changes in farming systems. The potential impacts of interest would be the extent to which they might affect demand and competition for water resources, the impact on run-off, infiltration and erosion and, on water quality due to changing patterns of use and application of fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides. If agricultural system change in response climate change this will also have an impact on the landscape, land management and development and aesthetics associated with what might be perceived to be a Barbadian landscape. The extent to which the terrestrial habitat and biodiversity will be affected by climate change is at present unknown though it may be speculated it would favour more heat tolerant species of fauna and flora. An undesired effect may be to allow exotics and pest species to flourish. It will be important to understand how such changes might impact on infiltration and run-off characteristics as well as on water uptake and evapo-transpiration rates. Increases in sea temperatures will undoubtedly have an adverse effect on coral reefs and coral bleaching, reducing the attractiveness of the coastal environment to tourists.
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REVIEW OF EXISTING ENABLING (POLICY, LEGISLATIVE AND INSTITUTIONAL) FRAMEWORKS
5.1 Policy Review The Barbados National Tourism Policy has as its broad objective: To pursue sustainable tourism development through improvement and optimal use of our land, human resources and services, and through the conservation and managed use of our cultural, built and natural heritage, in order to ensure a product of the highest quality whilst improving the life and economic development of the people of Barbados. The policy objective captures the need for the industry to periodically assess its use of resources and to modify its strategic approach and behaviours in order to maintain or enhance the quality of the tourism product and contribute sustainability to ongoing social and economic prosperity. The Barbados Tourism Policy is therefore broadly adaptive in intent. It is therefore configured to accommodate climate change adaptation as an industry wide strategy. The assumptions upon which the viability of the Tourism Policy hinges are that: Barbados will continue to be one of the leading Caribbean tourism destinations The characteristics of the target markets will remain the same Barbados will maintain a stable political and social climate The physical environment will be protected and conserved, including measures to mitigate against the negative impacts of climate change Tourism will remain the chief engine of economic growth in the medium to long term. The policy explicitly acknowledges the need to protect and conserve the environment and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The question therefore arises, what are the enabling mechanisms and modalities that must be in place to facilitate the tourism industry in Barbados in its efforts to make the necessary adjustments in industry behaviors, resource configurations, and technological approaches in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. The overall national policy framework relating to the development of an adaptation strategy for the tourism sector is generally adequate. There are several useful policy instruments that once implemented will assist with improving the overall quality of the environment and assist with the protection, conservation and management of natural resources. What is required most of
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all is the operationlisation of these policies supported by the provision of adequate resources (human, information, technological). Notwithstanding the current status there is a clear need to review and update a few of the existing policies. The table (number) below shows the proposed recommendations for policy framework. 5.2 Institutional Review
The review of the existing institutions shows that generally there is an adequate institutional framework in place that can facilitate and ensure the effective implementation of a national and sectoral (tourism) climate change adaptation strategy. There is a core group of agencies that have been assessed as being of very high relevance to climate induced vulnerability. These agencies have been deemed to be critical to the overall successful implementation of any climate adaptation strategy for the tourism sector. This determination is consistent with previous vulnerability studies in Barbados. These agencies may then be further divided into three broad categories. First there are a number of agencies which possess adequate capacity which have been able to demonstrate their capability over a considerable period of time. Such agencies include the Town and Country Planning Office (TCPO), the Coastal Zone Management Unit (CZMU), the Department of Emergency Management (DEM formerly CERO the Central Emergency Relief Organisation) and the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS). While these agencies do not require comprehensive strengthening to make them more effective it will be necessary to undertake selective strengthening. Then there is a group of agencies such as the Ministry of Tourism and the Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association that are well established entities with fairly long track records. However in terms of environmental matters in general and adaptation to climate change in particular, they may be considered as relatively new players. They lack the necessary internal capacity to address core environmental issues such as climate change because they were not designed or conceptualized to focus on these matters. While these entities therefore possess the necessary capacity to perform their traditional and dominant roles they are in need of some strengthening to enable them to effectively address climate related environmental concerns. These non-technical agencies will also have to rely on those specialized organizations and ministry for technical and scientific support. It will be necessary prevent any institutional overlap. The third class of institutions are those that will need considerable strengthening in order to become more effective agents of climate change adaptation. This category of agencies represents fairly strong technical organisations that are however in dire need of new and 48
additional resources, assets and strategic orientation. Included in this group are the Environmental Unit, the Barbados Building Standards Authority and the Drainage Unit. Other organizations have been assessed as being of medium to high relevance to the issue of climate induced vulnerability. It is felt that although these institutions are of some general importance they will not reside at the heart of any climate adaptation strategy for the tourism sector. This category includes agencies such as the Natural Heritage Unit (NHU), the National Conservation Commission (NCC), the Barbados Tourism Investment Inc. (BTII), the Barbados Tourism Authority (BTA), Needhams Point Development Inc. (NPDI), the Barbados Port Inc., The Grantley Adams International Airport (GAIA), and the Ministry of Public Works (MPW). Notwithstanding it is felt that these entities also require some degree of strengthening in order to improve their effectiveness and relevance.
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Table 8: AGENCY Environmental Unit
Summary of the Policy Recommendations related to Vulnerability (Climate Change) POLICY/PROGRAMME/PROJECTS National Climate Change Adaptation Policy Framework and Abatement Plan for Barbados National Sustainable Development Policy State of the Environment Report RECOMMENDATIONS Adopt and operationlise Operationlise Review and Update Finalise and operationalise Operationalise Adopt and operationlise Review and Update
Environmental Management and Natural Resources Management Plan National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) Gully Ecosystem Management Study Coastal Management Unit
Zone Integrated Coastal Management Plan for the South-East, East and North-West coasts of Barbados (1998) Integrated Coastal Management Plan for the West and South Coasts of Barbados (1999)
Review and Update Finalise and operationalise Finalise and operationlise Responsible for prevention, sampling, monitoring, and control of pollution seeks to promote sustainable practices 50
Natural Heritage Unit Environmental Management and natural Resources (Caves of Barbados) Management Plan National Conservation Beach Management Plan 2007 Commission Environmental Protection Marine Pollution Control Regulations Department
AGENCY
POLICY/PROGRAMME/PROJECTS
RECOMMENDATIONS through control, regulation and enforcement
Ministry of Tourism
Green Paper on the Sustainable Development of Tourism in Barbados A policy Framework Barbados Tourism Sector Tropical Weather Systems Plan & None
Codify Green Paper Finalise and operationalise Need to develop and implement an environmental policy Need to develop and implement action plans including an adaptation plan Incorporate adaptation strategies Need to incorporate the proposed adaptation strategy for the tourism sector Need to incorporate the proposed adaptation strategy for the tourism sector Need to incorporate the proposed adaptation strategy for the tourism sector Need to incorporate the proposed 51
Barbados Hotel Tourism Association
Barbados Tourism Urban Rehabilitation Programme Investment Inc. Barbados Tourist Board None
Needhams Development Inc.
Point None
Barbados Cruise Terminal None Inc. Barbados Port Inc. None
AGENCY
RECOMMENDATIONS adaptation strategy for the tourism sector
Grantley Adams None International Airport Inc. Town & Country Planning Physical Development Plan (2003) Office Town and Country Planning Applicants Handbook Barbados Building Barbados National Building Code Standards Authority Department of National Multi-hazard Disaster Management Plan Emergency Management (CERO) Barbados Meteorological None Services Ministry of Public Works Drainage Unit Barbados Authority Ministry of None Drainage Prevention Plan Water Water Resources Development and Management Policy Economic National Strategic Plan 2005-2025
Need to incorporate the proposed adaptation strategy for the tourism sector Operationalise Incorporate adaptation strategies Adopt and operationalise Finalise and operationalise
Need to develop a strategic plan including adaptation Need to develop a master plan for the sector including adaptation Need to review and improve the Drainage Prevention Plan Operationalise Operationalise 52
AGENCY Affairs Barbados Marine Trust None
RECOMMENDATIONS Need to develop an adaptation plan Need to develop a comprehensive awareness and education plan
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Barbados has a fairly good collection of laws which can provide a useful foundation for building an appropriate legal framework for formulating and implementing an adaptation strategy for tourism. There is currently no single piece of legislation in Barbados designed to specifically address climate change. However there are a number of pieces of legislation which contain some applicable provisions. With regard to the legislative framework, over 50 pieces of legislation have been identified as being of relevance to the implementation of the adaptation strategy. These laws cover a wide suite of environmental issues including the following issues: General environmental protection, management and conservation Natural resource protection, management and conservation Pollution prevention and mitigation affecting various receiving environments including land, ground water, surface water, marine environment, air, human health and safety, and built environment Environmental health and safety There are several pieces of existing legislation which contain some provisions that relate to aspects of climate change. While these laws give general coverage to the types of environmental issues affecting Barbados the legislative framework is somewhat disjointed and contains some gaps. The existing laws in many instances were not intended to address the new and emerging issues related specifically to climate change adaptation. As a result there is a misfit between the existing legal provisions and current environmental concerns that have resulted in gaps, overlaps, and omissions. The overall national legal framework relating to the development of an adaptation strategy for the tourism sector is generally adequate. The government has prepared modern pieces of legislation over the last 10 years. The main challenge that remains involves the need to go the further step and enact the draft legislation. Those that have been enacted need strong implementation strategies which should involve the provision of adequate resources (human, information, technological) to fully operationalise them. In some instances the legislation may require simple reviews and update to make them more current. Notwithstanding the current status there is a clear need to develop a few new pieces of legislation or the amendment of existing legislation to give effect to the climate change policy and the proposed adaptation plan. The table below shows the proposed recommendations for legal framework governing adaptation to climate change.
Environmental Unit
Environmental Management Act
Review and strengthen Enact and implement Implement
International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora Act, 2006-3 Climate Change Act
Proposed New Climate Change Act or amendment of existing legislation to incorporate provisions relating to climate change matters Review and strengthen
Coastal Zone Coastal Zone Management Unit Management Act, Cap. 394 Natural Heritage Unit Natural Resources (Caves of Barbados) Management Act National Conservation National Conservation Commission Commission Act, Cap. 393 Environmental Marine Pollution Protection Department Control Act, Cap 392 Ministry of Tourism Tourism Development Act, Cap. 341
operationalise operationalise
review and operationlise operationalise legislative legislative legislative legislative legislative intervention intervention intervention intervention intervention
Barbados Hotel & None Tourism Association Barbados Tourism None Investment Inc. Barbados Board Tourist None
No new required No new required No new required No new required No new
Needhams Point None Development Inc. Barbados Cruise None
Grantley International Inc.
Adams None Airport
No new required
legislative
intervention
Town & Country Town and Country Planning Office Planning Act, Ca[. 240 Town and Country Development Planning Order 1972 Preservation of Trees Act, Cap. 397 Ministry of Health Health Services Regulations (building Regulations)
Needs comprehensive review and modernising Needs comprehensive review and modernising Needs review and strengthening
Needs reviewing Needs to be implemented adopted and
Barbados Building Barbados National Standards Authority Building Code Barbados Building Bill Department of Disaster Emergency Act Management (CERO) Barbados Meteorological Services Ministry Works of None
Needs to be enacted and implemented Operationalise
Management
No new required
legislative
intervention
Public Public Works Act, Cap. 32 Prevention of Floods Act, Cap. 235 Water Water Resources Development and Management Policy Housing Crown Lands (Vesting and Disposal) Act, Cap.
Needs reviewing and modernizing taking climate impacts into consideration Operationalise Need for comprehensive modern water resources Act Operationlise
Drainage Unit Barbados Authority Ministry of and Lands
Barbados Marine Trust
None
Need to develop Freedom information legislation
of
It is in the context of the institutional, policy and legal framework described above that the following recommendations for adaptation to climate change are made for the tourism industry in Barbados.
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS
The Caribbean has been identified as a tourism vulnerability hotspot where a suite of climate related factors combine to place the Caribbean as a tourism destination at-risk (Simpson et al., 2008). This is of grave concern, because Barbados economic security is intimately bound up with its tourism performance. For example, between 1971 and 2006, tourism earnings (represented by net travel credits) accounted for 65.4% of total export earnings. In fact, tourism has grown from earning roughly 50% of total exports in the 1970s, to 55% in the 1980s and 73% in the 1990s. Only in the last few years has tourisms share of exports started to decline somewhat, leading to an average of 67.9% between 2000 and 2006 (Central Bank of Barbados). The extent to which the industry is at risk from the negative impacts of climate change has been assessed over the past two decades in a series of studies. One of these done by Delcan in 1994 has shown that sea level rise as a result of climate change could result in coastal land losses of up to 30 meters on some key beaches. Not only are the beaches a main draw for tourists who visit the island, but the vast majority of the tourism accommodation and other associated services are located in this vulnerable coastal zone. In addition, climate change will have an adverse impact on the water supply in Barbados, as it comes under threat when the country experiences less rainfall in the future during the rainy season. There are also projections for adverse impacts on agriculture and food availability; and increases in heat causing lowered comfort levels and making the island less attractive at the same time that northern temperatures become more attractive. One of the potential impacts of mitigation policies such as those being reviewed by the European Union will be the internalisation of costs associated with carbon emissions from the air transport industry making travel to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean more costly. Based on the foregoing discussion it can be concluded that climate change could have a growing devastating impact on the Barbados tourism industry in the medium (less than two years) to long term (greater than two years). To this end, the following strategy is proposed to guide the policy, legal, economic investment, institutional and agency level changes necessary for adaptation to climate change in the tourism industry in Barbados. This Tourism Strategy for Adaptation to Impacts from Climate Change comprises three levels. At the first level are four broad strategic imperatives which must be attended to for the strategy to be functional and impactful. At the second level are a set of cross cutting issues that require the attention of all the tourism, environment and disaster management agencies. The third level details agency specific actions that were identified during a SWOT analysis as necessary for strengthening capacity. The strategy is graphically represented in Figure 18:
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Figure 18 The Barbados Tourism Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts
6.1 Comply with existing planning regulations & policies According to the CPACC study which was completed in 1999, estimated land loss due to a scenario of 0.2m sea level rise range from 1.13m to 1.46m at varying sites; and a scenario of 1m sea level rise could lead to land loss ranging from 5.79 to 31.54 depending on the site. Essentially, compliance with existing regulations and policies which stipulate setbacks and specific designs for coastal structures is critical in order to reduce the level of exposure to which critical tourism infrastructure is exposed. Compliance will also lead to a reduction in the level of anthropogenic stress to which coastal ecosystems and habitats are subjected. Healthy coastal ecosystems and habitats tend to mitigate the adverse impacts of extreme hydro-meteorological events such as storm surges, heavy wave action, flooding, and high winds. Pollution and habitat 59
destruction as a result of un-planned, illegal, or ill-advised development can reduce the ability of coastal ecosystems and habitats to mitigate the impacts of extreme climatic events, increasing the exposure and vulnerability of tourism infrastructure to climatic extremes. Since the coastal ecosystems and habitats are also a major element of the tourism product, failure to observe exiting environmental and development policies, regulations, and guidelines will result in deterioration in the quality of the natural tourism product.
6.2 Mainstream new information and technologies Before climate change became a current and developing threat, risk and coastal engineering designs were informed by past trends in climatic conditions and the return period of extreme hydro-meteorological events. One of the realities of climate change that has a profound effect on planning is that future climate conditions will be different from past conditions. The future can no longer be modelled on past trends. This means that new tools are required to provide internally consistent projections of plausible future climatic conditions. The initiative to develop downscaled climate models for the Caribbean region has been led by the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC). The new data on projected temperature, precipitation, and sea level must be incorporated into the design, planning, and policy formulation processes at the enterprise (recovery and continuity planning), sectoral (sector specific vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning), national (nested local and national vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning) and regional (strategic sectoral and economic vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning) levels. For the tourism sector the consideration of future climatic conditions has already informed the designs for the current Barbados Coastal Infrastructure Project that is proving long-term mitigation of sea-level rise impacts while conserving and enhancing the quality of the existing tourism product. Hotels in the region are also being designed to mitigate the impacts of sealevel rise and coastal inundation as a result of extreme storm. The second floor of these hotels is high above ground-level. The ground floor serves to accommodate shops, gyms, massage parlours, and recreation facilities. In the event of a storm surge or flood the essential hotel infrastructure for sustained operations (generators, rooms, restaurants, kitchens, housekeeping departments, etc.) are safe. This type of design can be seen in the Hilton Hotel at Needhams Point in Barbados. 6.3 Initiate the collection of data for climate change modeling. The DELCAN and CPACC studies highlight the fact that there have been no recent and successful attempts to collect or augment existing coastal (e.g. bathymetry) and sea-level data holdings for the purpose of developing climate change projections for adaptation planning. The information from the DELCAN and CPACC studies is now 14 and 11 years old respectively. Although the tourism industry can and should begin the process of climate change adaptation by addressing existing mal-adaptations to current climatic conditions and compliance with
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existing environmental legislation and polices, new data is needed to begin the process of anticipatory adaptation.
Some specific data gaps that require urgent attention in order to improve the knowledge base for decision-making by tourism stakeholders include:
6.4
Compilation of updated geo-referenced bathymetric and topographic data for Barbados to generate updated storm surge, coastal erosion and flood zone mapping under different climate change scenarios. Production of updated hazard maps for use in contingency planning and disaster preparedness. Compilation of an updated inventory of all critical infrastructure and the associated land values in the zone which may be potentially affected by the effects of climate change. Undertake an up to date drainage study for Barbados to assist in management of storm water runoff and the maintenance of beaches.
Coordinate the Tourism Strategy and industry specific adaptation plans with the Regional Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Strategy. Climate change adaptation at the local and national levels may be viewed as the projection into the future of disaster risk management and disaster risk reduction processes. Current extremes in hydro-meteorological events are addressed through disaster risk management and risk reduction initiatives such as those being implemented under the Enhanced Comprehensive Disaster Management Framework Strategy 2007-2012 (CDM). This framework which is supported by the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) provides the appropriate infrastructure for engaging stakeholder coordination in disaster management. Overall management and technical guidance for the strategy will be provided by the Comprehensive Disaster Management Coordination and Harmonization Council, through the support of six Sub-Committees, each coordinating CDM-related activities in the economic sectors of, agriculture, civil Society, education, finance, health, tourism. The subcommittee on tourism disaster risk reduction is headed by the Sector Lead, the Caribbean Tourism Organization. The CDM will be informed by the Regional Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Tourism in the Caribbean Project, which is a 42-month US $800,000, project designed to develop a regional disaster risk management strategy for sustainable tourism that includes the formulation of standards for vulnerability assessments and risk mapping applied to the tourism sector; and institutional strengthening of the CDERA, the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), and other stakeholders in disaster risk management for sustainable tourism. The CDM Framework and specifically the Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Coordination and Harmonization Council will provide stakeholders in the tourism industry with an enabling environment within which the recommendations and findings of this study could be advanced. The CDM programme has facilitated the establishment of sectoral sub-committees lead by sector stakeholders to guide the mainstreaming of disaster risk management into the planning 61
and decision making of their respective sectors. The sectoral sub-committees represent tourism, civil society, education, health and finance. The strategic objective of coordinating the development of the national strategy for climate change adaption in the tourism sector with development of the disaster risk reduction agenda for the tourism sector under the CDM Programme is to identify areas of strategic overlap that might provide win-win opportunities for adaptation investment. The Ministry of Tourism and the Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association in dialogue with CDERA would be responsible for establishing the modalities for the participation of the representatives of the Barbados tourism industry in the Tourism Sub-committee. The National Climate Change Committee would be responsible for assessing the win-win opportunities and proving guidance on the strategic approach to be taken by both the Government and the tourism industry with respect to the convergence of the climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction agendas. 6.5 Cross Cutting Areas The strategic imperatives were identified and discussed in the previous section. At the same time, there are a number of issues that require the attention of all the tourism, environment and disaster management agencies. They occur at the political, policy, legislative and institutional levels and they also relate to funding, research, human resource development and public awareness. 6.5.1 Political Climate Change needs to come to the forefront of the national agenda, i.e. it must be mainstreamed. The potential impacts of climate change are severe and significant and can cost the tourism industry millions of dollars through coastal land and property losses. Indeed, the Caribbean has been identified as a tourism vulnerability hotspot where a suite of climate related factors combine to place the Caribbean as a tourism destination at-risk. Climate change must be an economic and development imperative transcending political party lines. All individuals in positions of authority should speak publicly on the importance of addressing climate change. This would raise awareness and afford climate change the important status it requires for the various sectors to prioritise it and take necessary adaptation actions both inside government as well as out in the wider community. 6.5.2 Policy Many policy documents relevant to climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Barbados tourism industry do not rank the objectives in any way, e.g. by time frame or urgency. As such, priorities are not clear and those responsible for policy implementation often times require guidance on what should be tackled and when. With respect to climate change this is especially important given that it is a slow process, the impacts of which will be experienced over time scales measured in decades. Given the factors such as limited material and human resources, competing economic priorities and the short political time frame in which decisions are made it would be easy for those objectives related to climate change to be deferred or ignored. To this 62
end, policy objectives should be prioritised and differentiation should be made between short, medium- and long-term objectives, with specific timeframes suggested. These objectives should be clearly communicated to those responsible for their achievement. In addition, existing policies need to be urgently operationlised and converted into climate change action plans containing measurable targets and timelines. The scope of these climate change action plans should focus on issues at the sectoral level (e.g. tourism), local area/community level, regional level (e.g. particular parish or stretch of coastline) and the national level. Annex I contains a summary of the policy recommendations related to Climate Change vulnerability which could be used as a reference point for the process of prioritisation. Another related issue is the fact that there are insufficient and ineffective tools and instruments available to monitor and evaluate the success of policies. Furthermore, when trying to relate a policy directly to the tourism industry, there are significant obstacles, one of which is the difficulty in separating the effect of a particular policy on the tourism sector to the exclusion of all other factors. Therefore, the success of policies aimed at promoting mitigation and adaption to climate change on the tourism sector would be difficult to determine, given that the tourism sector is impacted by a number of other factors at the same time. This therefore requires the identification of appropriate tools and instruments for monitoring success and effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation polices for the tourism sector and the establishment of modalities for to ensure their effective use. 6.5.3 Legislation At this time Barbados has no specific law relating to climate change adaptation. Many of the existing acts that deal with (i) general environmental and natural resources issues; (ii) disaster management and (iii) tourism development, need updating or implementing. Priority should therefore be given to preparing and implementing a new Climate Change Act which should include provisions regulating the preparation and use of adaptation plans (national and sectoral such as for the tourism industry). This act should also make provision for the establishment of a body (National Climate Change Unit) that will be responsible for the administration and policing of the Act. A key provision of this act should also be the establishment of a high-level scientific and technical advisory body to prioritise sectoral mitigation and adaption needs and opportunities, advise on date gaps, and guide research and the development of sector and policy relevant climate change projections and scenarios. There is also a need to enact and implement complementary legislation that would serve to strengthen the Climate Change Act and the Climate Change Unit. These include the Barbados Building Act, the Barbados Building Code, the Environmental Management Act, and the Natural Resources Management Act. Moreover, the Town and Country Planning Act and the Preservation of Trees Act are in need of comprehensive review and modernisation. Other pieces of legislation and policies that require some selective reviews and improvement include the Coastal Zone Management Act, the Prevention of Floods Act. The Green Paper on the Sustainable Development of Tourism in Barbados ought to be given the force of law. 63
6.5.4 Institutional There is need for more collaboration among the public and private sector organisations that promote the development of tourism. There is also insufficient cross-departmental and interministerial collaboration. The tourism entities do not coordinate the policies with those of the agriculture and environmental entities. As a result, the effective execution of policy is compromised, because there are times when execution of a policy within the tourism sector requires the cooperation of another sector. This situation also prohibits valuable knowledge transfer from one sector of the economy to another. For example, it is highly likely that various aspects of climate change impacts have been investigated within the environmental agencies, but this information and the proposed adaptation strategies to mitigate impact might not have been shared with other interested parties. Across the region there appears to be a deficit of formal means by which to share data and set action plans for the entire region, or on a global scale, which is perhaps surprising given the shared risk. Consideration must therefore be given to the creation of a cross-ministerial Climate Change Committee to formulate policies aimed at mitigating the impact of climate change as well as a Climate Change Task Force whose task would be to coordinate the policies and submit reports to the committee. The ministries that should be involved should include, at a minimum, those in tourism, environment, agriculture and business (especially small business). Private sector bodies that are involved in these areas should also be included. This committee should also have a formalised relationship with related regional bodies as well as national institutions in other jurisdictions. The persons who sit on the committee, in particular, should be in high enough positions within their institutions to have access to all studies conducted by their institutions. In this way, the committee will always be aware of the research being conducted, even if not directed by the committee, and they should have access to all findings of these studies. In addition, the private sector umbrella bodies such as the BHTA need to play a more critical role in the development and implementation of climate change adaption and mitigation policy and the implementation of climate change mitigation and adaption strategies that are developed for the tourism industry. Thus, the private sector should be encouraged to play a lead role in climate change mitigation and adaptation and to participate in Climate Change Committee and the CDM Tourism Sub-committee to create industry guidelines for the appropriate ways to handle the climate change and related natural disaster risks. 6.5.5 Funding Applied research on climate change adaptation and mitigation has been hampered by the unavailability of funding, and even if it is available, it is often insufficient to adequately address the problem at hand. Even when funding is sourced, there is usually no provision for adequate monitoring programmes once the study has been submitted to the relevant authorities. This lack of financing clearly prohibits effective management of the entire research process. Therefore, an Environmental Trust Fund should be established to assist with the sustainable funding of climate change adaptation and mitigation and related environmental matters. 64
Potential sources of support include a regional voluntary carbon offsetting scheme, environmental taxes and levies, and contributions. There are numerous examples of similar trust funds in the Caribbean region such as; the Environmental Foundation for Jamaica, the UNEP administered Caribbean Environmental Trust, Trinidad and Tobagos Environmental Trust Fund. 6.5.6 Research An important barrier that is not unique to either the tourism sector or climate change studies is the lack of data and the accompanying deficit in research. Currently, it is difficult to determine the impact of climate change on different tourism-related activities such as yachting, fishing, scuba diving, agriculture, water, coastal zone management, biodiversity and energy, to name a few. These studies are already difficult to conduct, but in Barbados there is also a deficit of the necessary data, which prevents in-depth and thorough studies at all levels. Research should therefore be conducted to identify sector specific data needs and optimal mitigation and adaptation opportunities for the tourism industry. Data gaps should be identified and procedures should be put in place to acquire or generate the needed data. All data collected by relevant institutions should be collated and shared. The responsibility for the collection, collation and distribution of this data should be placed in the hands of the recommended Climate Change Task Force. This task force should be allowed to outsource this function or delegate it to the various ministries involved. The recommended Climate Change Task Force should also develop a working relationship with the research arms of the University of the West Indies to help promote the conduct of related studies. These studies should not only focus on the physical impact, but also involve the impacts on the various sectors of the economy. 6.5.7 Human resource development Many of the critical public and private sector agencies either lack technical staff trained in disciplines relevant to addressing climate change; or their technical staff have multiple responsibilities that limit the time they can devote to climate change matters. Therefore, a detailed capacity needs assessment should be undertaken of the relevant institutions including an audit of staffing requirements. Staff should be recruited and trained as necessary to improve the agencies capacity for addressing climate change matters. 6.5.8 Public awareness and outreach Climate change is currently not a household concern. While it is addressed in movies and on documentaries, the reality of the impact of climate change on SIDS has not been the subject of these films. The potential impact of warmer climate, changing availability of water and sea level rise is not fully appreciated by the average citizen, many of whom work directly in the tourism industry or are beneficiaries because of its multiplier effect.
65
In order to redress this, the local and regional media need to be informed about climate change. In addition, the recommended Climate Change Committee should always share the results of any studies with the public, through media conferences, and should make the reports available to the public. Environmental studies, with a particular focus on climate change, should be included in the syllabus of primary and secondary school students in particular. Modules on adapting to climate change should form part of the tourism, business- and environment-related degrees offered by the University of the West Indies. 6.6 Agency level actions Each of the principal players in the tourism and environmental and related sectors need to implement a range of activities if they are to improve their capacity to initiate and implement climate change adaptation measures. These actions are discussed in this final section. However, the list is not prescriptive, and so timeframes are not specified since each agency will have to determine their priority actions and where within their work plans they will integrate these activities. However, it is suggested that each agency incorporate climate change into their mandate and budget for adaptation measures on an annual basis. The Ministry of Tourism Establish a permanent secretariat for the Tourism Emergency Operational Centre (TEO). Strengthen the coordination role played by the TEOC Finalize and implement the Tourism Sector Tropical Weather Systems Plan Develop tourism sector climate change action plans Codify the Green paper Recruit and train staff at the graduate and post-graduate level in relevant environmental fields, e.g. climate change Strengthen the research and technical capacity or the Ministry Acquire appropriate tools, technology and equipment e.g. GIS, hazard maps, etc. to allow for monitoring climate change impacts Develop an innovative funding strategy e.g. Environmental Trust Fund The Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA) Increase collaboration with the Ministry of Tourism and work more closely with membership Increase staffing to include more environmental and technical capacity. Provide specialised training for the existing environmental officer to increase capacity to deal with climate change issues. Strengthen the Environmental Committee e.g. work plan should be widened to include focus on climate change impacts. Strengthen collaboration with key technical agencies. 66
Develop practical, on-the-ground projects to be implemented with members. Develop innovative funding strategies. Develop awareness and education strategies e.g. kits including a manual which could sensitise members about the importance of climate change impacts and benefits from building resilience for the sector.
The Environmental Unit of the Ministry of Environment Finalize and implement the climate change Policy Strengthen the Climate Change Advisory Committee to become a permanent body with a secretariat and relevant legislation The Climate Change Secretariat should function as national clearing house, providing a link between national and regional and international levels; formulating national policy, plans and programmes which can be operationalised through sectors and local communities. The Secretariat should include personnel from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Recruit and train staff to improve the capacity of the Ministry to cope with the climate change agenda Strengthen research and data collection Develop a programme to raise awareness, through formal and informal education channels. Develop innovative funding strategies e.g. establishment of Environmental Trust Fund The Coastal Zone Management Unit CZMU Generate hazard maps storm surge, flooding, erosion Strengthen research, data collection, monitoring and maintenance Acquire or up-grade information tools and technology, e.g. GIS, storm surge models, etc. Develop practical community and sector projects and plans Prepare user manuals or guidelines for development in the coastal zone Develop innovative funding strategies user fees e.g. manuals, local plans, etc., Environmental Trust Fund e.g. penalties for environmental crimes; use of economic instruments Strengthen legislation e.g. access to information, participation Improve monitoring and enforcement The Town and Country Planning Development Office Incorporate adaptation strategies into the Physical Development Plan, Local Area plans, etc. Strengthening legislation access to information, participation Strengthening research and technical capacity to address climate change Improve monitoring and enforcement 67
Incorporate adaptation measures into Users Guide or develop Users Manual
The Central Emergency Relief Organisation CERO Operationalise the Disaster Management Act 2006 Review and up-date the National Multi-hazard Disaster Plan 2005 Recruit staff technical (graduate or post-graduate level) e.g. GIS Expert Strengthen research, data collection, storage and manipulation capacity Strengthen awareness and education disaster management is everyones business not just CERO Training climate change science, adaptation measures Strengthen collaboration with partners (technical agencies, research institutions, Building Authority, etc.) The Barbados Building Standards Authority Enactment of the Barbados Building Act Enactment of the Building Code Establishment of the Building Authority Develop a User Manual for the building practitioners incorporating adaptation measures Include BBSA as a permanent member of the National Climate Change Committee Strengthen research, data collection and information exchange Develop awareness and education strategies
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Bibliography Arnell, N.W. (2004). Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 14, 31-52 Belle, N. and Bramwell, B. (2005) Climate Change and Small Island Tourism: Policy Maker and Industry Perspectives in Barbados, Journal of Travel Research 44: 32-41. Comrie, A. (2007). Climate Change and Human Health. Geography Compass, Vol. 1 (3), pp 325-339 CSIRO (1996) Climate Change Scenarios for the Australian Region, Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Melbourne. de Albuquerque, K. and McElroy, J. (1995) Planning for Effective Management and Sustainable Development of Coastal Resources in Caribbean Small Island States, Caribbean Dialogue 2: 11-16. Delcan. 1994. Water levels for Barbados Feasibility studies on coastal conservation. Prepared for the Coastal Conservation Project Unit, Ministry of Environment, Housing and Lands, August 1994, 101 pp. Epstein, P. (2000). Is global warming harmful to health? Scientific American Vol. 283: pp 50-57 Epstein, P. and Mills, E. (eds.) (2005). Climate Change Futures: Health, ecological and economic dimensions. The Centre for Health and the Global Environment. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Medical School, p142. Flato, G.M. and Boer, G.J. (2001) Warming Asymmetry in Climate Change Simulations, Geophysical Research Letters 28: 195 Gray, W.M., Sceaffer, J.D. and Landsea, C.W. (1997) Climate Trends Associated with Multidecadal Variability of Atlantic Hurricane Activity, in Diaz, H.F. and Pulwarty, R.S. (eds.), Hurricanes. Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts, Springer Verlag, New York: 15 Hamilton, J.M., Maddison, D.J. and Tol., R.S.J. (2005) Climate Change and International Tourism: A Simulation Study, Global Environmental Change 15: 253 IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, available at www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis of Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, available at www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm. IPCC, (2007). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22. Jones, I. and Banner, J. (2003).Estimating recharge thresholds in tropical karst island aquifers: Barbados, Puerto Rico and Guam. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 278 pp: 13169
143 Latimer, H. (1985) Developing-Island Economies Tourism v. Agriculture, Tourism Management x: 32-42. Mihalic, T. (2002) Tourism and Economic Development Issues. In Sharply, R. and Telfer, D.J. (eds.), Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues, Channel View Publications, Clevedon, UK: 81-111. Ministry of Physical Development Environment (2001) Barbados First National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, St. Michael, Barbados. Modeste (1995) - Winston Moreno, A.R. (2006). Climate Change and Human Health in Latin America: Drivers, Effects and Policies. Journal of Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 6, pp 157-164 Ortiz, P.L., Guevara, A., Daz, M. and Prez, A. (2000). Rapid assessment methods/models and human health sector sensitivity to climate change in Cuba: Climate change impacts and responses. In: Proceedings of the conference on national assessment: Results of Climate Change. San Jos, Costa Rica, March 25-28, 1998, Japan, pp 203-222 Taylor, M.A., Centella, A., Charlery, J., Borrajero, I., Benzanilla, A., Campbell, J., Rivero, R., Stephenson, T.S., Whyte, F. and Watson, R. (2007). Glimpses of the Future: A Briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean Climate Change Project. Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize. UNDP, 2007. Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a divided world. pp.384. Washington, W.M., Weatherly, J.W., Meehl, G.A., Semtner Jr., A.J., Bettge, T.W., Craig, A.P., Strand Jr., W.G., Arblaster, J.M., Wayland, V.B., James, R. and Zhang, Y. (2000) Parallel Climate Model (PCM) Control and Transient Simulations, Climate Dynamics 16: 755-74. WTO/UNEP (1992) Guidelines: Development of National Parks and Protected Areas of Tourism. World Tourism Organization, Madrid.
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National Adaptation Strategy To Address Climate Change Tourism Sector in Barbados Synthesis of The

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NATIONAL ADAPTATION STRATEGY

Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre

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TechnicalReport5C/MACC02092 Copyright2009byCaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre PublishedbyCaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre,Belmopan,Belize DigitalEdition(November2010)

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 2 2.1 2.2 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN BARBADOS ...........................................................

CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES AND THREATS TO TOURISM IN BARBADOS ...........................................................

REVIEW OF EXISTING ENABLING (POLICY, LEGISLATIVE AND INSTITUTIONAL) FRAMEWORKS.....................

RECOMMENDED STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS.........................................................................................................

6.5.7 6.5.8 6.6

Preparation of the Synthesis Report

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN BARBADOS

Total Real GDP

Figure 2 % Share of Total Employment (1976)

Figure 3 % Share of Total Employment (2006)

Other 11% Construction 9% Agriculture 10% Government 36%

Miscellaneous Sevices 25%

Tourism 10% Government 21% Commerce 13%

Commerce and Tourism 19%

Figure 4 Tourism as a Percentage of Exports (Barbados)

Current Account Balance

of Saffir/Simpson (SS) scale

Category 4 59-58 Category 5 >69 Source: Gray, et al and Authors estimates.

Sea level rise

Flooding and inundation

Hurricane activity Wind speed

Table 3: Potential Impact on Hotel Plant of Various Land Loss Scenarios

Number of Rooms Affected % of Hotel Rooms

N.B.: Assumes a 56 percent occupancy rate for the year.

Loss Revenue Per year ($)

N.B.: Assumes a 56 percent occupancy rate for the year.

Loss Revenue Per year ($)

Loss Revenue Per year ($)

N.B.: Assumes a 56 percent occupancy rate for the year.

Figure 7 Impact of Climate Change on Barbados TCI

Figure 8 Impact of Climate Change on the US TCI (JFK International Airport)

Figure 11 Impact of Climate Change on the Mauritius TCI (Rodrigues)

CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES AND THREATS TO TOURISM IN BARBADOS

Figure 12 Monthly Rainfall

Figure 13 Schematic Representation of a Simplified Water Balance Scheme

Figure 14 Total Projected Water Demand (m3)

Figure 16 Water Balance for all cases (m3)

REVIEW OF EXISTING ENABLING (POLICY, LEGISLATIVE AND INSTITUTIONAL) FRAMEWORKS

Table 8: AGENCY Environmental Unit

RECOMMENDATIONS through control, regulation and enforcement

Barbados Hotel Tourism Association

Needhams Development Inc.

Barbados Cruise Terminal None Inc. Barbados Port Inc. None

RECOMMENDATIONS adaptation strategy for the tourism sector

AGENCY Affairs Barbados Marine Trust None

Environmental Management Act

Review and strengthen Enact and implement Implement

No new required No new required No new required No new required No new

Needhams Point None Development Inc. Barbados Cruise None

Grantley International Inc.

Adams None Airport

Needs reviewing Needs to be implemented adopted and

Needs to be enacted and implemented Operationalise

Drainage Unit Barbados Authority Ministry of and Lands

Barbados Marine Trust

Need to develop Freedom information legislation

RECOMMENDED STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS