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‘At the beginning of the 21st Century there are more reasons than ever to be an environmental
pessimist.’ Critically evaluate this statement.
Why are there more reasons than ever to be an environmental pessimist?
General facts
At the beginning of the 20th century the prevalent belief towards the relationship between human and
environment was very optimistic. More coal was being discovered, and useless swamps and forests
would be converted to farmland for cropping (Meyer and Turner 2002). However by the late 20th
century, pessimistic views dominated. This was largely due to the ‘shock tactics’ used by the media
when presenting scientific data to the public about the impacts of our activities on the environment.
Environmental disasters like oils spills, nuclear fallout and climate change are front page worthy and are
great sellers. But the pessimism also came from academics, like Kennedy in Preparing for the 21st
Century, who concluded that the problems are grave and is not hopeful of institutions taking the
necessary steps to overcome the issues.
Now at the beginning of the 21st Century, it is widely accepted that environmental changes are
happening faster than any time in the past and human activity is mainly responsible. These changes,
often local, are happening on global scales that are affecting global environmental systems, such as the
atmosphere and oceans. Though environmental change is hard to measure, and scientific data vary,
some things are certainly agreed. Firstly, human activity is now more responsible than natural cycles for
driving environmental change. Secondly, changes are happening faster than any time in the past and
thirdly, the changes are becoming more complex (Meyers and Turner 2002).
All that said, the extent to which one is pessimistic depends not on the actual human induced
environmental changes that are happening, but on how you believe nature will react and the
socioeconomic and health impacts to human nature. Douglas (1992) proposed 4 ‘nature myths’ that
depict the different views out there. The ’communards’ are pessimists who view nature as fragile and
reacting sharply to even minor changes. On the other hand, the ‘entrepreneurial expansionists’ more
optimistic and view nature as robust and able to handle the human induced changes. Therefore each
individual will read the changes differently.
So what are these changes that are causing all the pessimism? What are the big issues? Despite claims
of ‘decoupling’ economic growth from resource exploitation in the ‘new economy’, we are still largely
dependent on depleting renewables, such as fisheries, forests and water resources. The cornucopian
view that the markets will ensure infinite supply of resources does not seem to work in relation to these
resources and this has led to a lot of pessimism. Water consumption has increased dramatically and
ground water deficit is 160 billion cubic metres (Brown et al 2000). Parts of Africa and Asia are already
experiencing water shortages (UNEP 1999) and this has direct effects on agricultural output. If trends
continue, IBID predicts that 2 out of 3 people will experience water shortages by 2025.
The new economic power houses of India and China with their massive populations are adding extra
strain on the world’s limited resources. Wood consumption has increased 64% since 1961 and in asia
demand has rapidly increased but reserves are already short. In the 1990s alone, Indonesia cut down
12% of its tropical rain forest. Over fishing and water pollution has resulted in a decrease of around 60%
of the world’s ocean fisheries and demand continues to increase (Ibid). If these trends continue, the
future looks grim.
Simon 1995 in the State of Humanity draws his optimism from the fact that over time non renewable
resources have become more abundant and less expensive despite the massive increase in population
witnessed during a large part of the 20th Century. But in his naïve optimism, he fails to recognise the
detrimental impacts consumption of these resources is having on the environment. Kasperson et al
1993, in Project on Critical Environment Zones identified 9 regions where changes were unusually severe
and threatened local livelihoods and the list is increasing. The use of pesticides, chemicals and heavy
irrigation during the Green Revolution increased output but also polluted rivers, killed beneficial insects
and poisoned farmers (IFPRI).
Climate change is a major global problem and many have little faith in institutions and organisations to
deal with it. The causes and consequences are exceedingly complex and rooted in the very structure of
our society. The costs are massive and the short sighted nature of our political system makes solving the
issue more difficult. In light of the new financial crisis, dealing with climate change will most likely be set
aside, as politicians and the public concern themselves with their financial woes (UNIPCC 2008). Carbon
trading certificates have dropped in price to allow companies to focus on overcoming immediate
economic problems.
To sum up, we have seen that recently the media has played a major role in bringing environmental
problem to the surface, mostly focussing on how human activity causes environmental changes. Looking
at the socioeconomic consequences of environmental change, there are many reasons to be pessimistic,
mainly due to the fact that environmental problems are becoming more global and complex. Depletion
of primary resources is a major concern to an ever increasing population, and our use of non renewable
resources is polluting the very systems that support life on our planet. Another major source of
pessimism is the lack of faith in our institutions and organisations to deal with such global and costly
problems.
In what terms do you define environmental pessimism? In socioeconomic terms, in terms of changes to
the environment,
The big issues
Change
1. Climate change
2. Impacts of resource use on environment (loss of biodiversity, acid rain,
3. Depletion of primary resources (forest, fisheries, aquifers)
4.
Intro
List the reasons for pessimism and then criticise them
Conclude with my opinion
The extent of your pessimis
Optimists
Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World
Simon, 1995 The State of Humanity
Pessimists
Ehrlich 1968 The population bomb
Ehrlich 1990 The population explosion
Meadows et al, 1972 Limits to growth
Reasons to be a pessimist Counter argument
Climate change may cost between 1 and 8 trillion Difficult to calculate what extent
(UNIPCC) change is natural, many results are
contested, little quality control
Carbon trading
Financial crisis may slow down efforts to curb climate
change
Oil prices have risen but not much substitution going
on
Resource scarcity
It doesn’t matter so much whether or not the
environmental situation is getting better or worse,
what matters is the fact that we cannot continue to
exploit worlds resources
Deforestation
Depletion of fish stocks
Current economic practices means it’s cheaper to
pollute
Much debate about the how certain scientific
prediction are – no consensus makes it difficult to take
action
General view has changed from optimistic during early
20th century – the green revolution – to pessimistic in
the latter part of the century
Coping with env change is humankinds major problem
Recently human activity has been greater at driving
env change than natural forces, and these changes are
becoming more complex
• World forested area decrease 20%
• Man made sulphur (from FFs)= natural flows
• Man made nitrogen (fertilisers) > natural flows
• CO2 increase 31%, double the env capacity
• CH4 increase more than 100%
• Synthetic organic chemicals are released that do
not exist in nature