Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: North Koreas Missile Launch Makes a Big Splash Carlyle A. Thayer April 13, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] What is your assessment of North Korea's failed missile launch? Why did North Korealaunchthemissiledespitetheworld'sopposition?Andnowithasfailed,how willNorthKoreareact? ANSWER:NorthKoreasfailedmissilelaunchissomethingofananticlimax.IfNorth Koreawassurreptitiouslytryingtousethesatellitelaunchtotestaballisticmissile, thefailedlaunchonlyconfirmedthatNorthKoreahasalongwaytogoindeveloping missile technology. Ostensibly North Koreas missile launch was to commemorate the100thbirthdayofits firstPresidentKimIlsung.Thiswasnotonlyanimportant eventinitsownright,butsignificantfortheconsolidationinpowerofhisgrandson KimJongunasNorthKoreasnewleader. OnceNorthKoreahadreachedagreementwiththeUnitedStatesonhaltingnuclear tests and missile launches in exchange for food aid, some elements of the elite wantedtotestU.S.resolve.Theweathersatellitelaunchservedthispurpose.the satellite launch was accompanied by a major propaganda campaign and foreign journalistwereinvitedtoviewthelaunchfacilitiesbutnottheactuallaunchitself. The North Korean regime thrives on confected crises. It unites the people and the eliteanditforcestheinternationalcommunitytopayitattention.InthepastNorth Koreahasbeenabletoextortmoneyandgoodsforpromisesofgoodbehavior.Once NorthKoreaannouncedthemissilelaunchtherewasnogoingback.Worldopinion only reinforced North Koreas determination to brazen it out. Uncharacteristically, NorthKoreamadeabelatedannouncementthatthemissilelaunchhasfailedandit was investigating the causes. It is possible North Korea will now go ahead and conduct its third nuclear test. With the U.S. suspension of food assistance, North Koreahasnothingtolosebyitsbadbehavior.Thehawkssurroundingthenewyoung leaderwillbepleasedbecausetheirpositionwillbereinforced.