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[12.12.2011]
Table of Contents
Table of Contents........................................................................................................ 2 Debt Market................................................................................................................ 3 Bond Market Development in Pakistan........................................................................3 History..................................................................................................................... 3 Bond market in Pakistan..........................................................................................4 Current status and Overview.................................................................................4 Development of Bond Market in Pakistan 9 points.................................................5 Hindrances in development of Bond Market.............................................................8 Pakistan's bond market on a rising trend.....................................................................8 Pakistan Government Bond 10Y Trend......................................................................10 Pak external debt mounts to $58.39b........................................................................10 External aid flows likely to materialize.......................................................................11 Money markets remain stable in July-Feb FY11..........................................................12 Bibliography..............................................................................................................13
Debt Market
The debt market is a market for trading the debt instruments like TFCs, Bonds, T-Bills, Commercial Papers, Participation Term Certificate, Corporate and Federal Bonds etc. A debt market establishes a structured environment where these types of debt can be traded with ease between interested parties. The debt market, often known by other names, based on the types of debt instruments that are traded in that market. In the event that the market deals mainly with the trading of municipal, corporate and Federal bond issues or National Savings Bond, the debt market may be known as a bond market. If mortgages and notes are the main focus of the trading, the debt market may be known as a credit market. When fixed rates are connected with the debt instruments like Fixed Income Securities, the market may be known as a fixed income market. If TFCs are trading in the market, the market would be known as TFC Market. The bond market in Pakistan covers debt and debt like securities issued by the government, statutory corporations and corporate entities. The market is regulated under the Regulation Governing Bonds Automated Trading Regulations. The SECP has identified the development of a vibrant debt market as one of its key focus areas. Based on the recommendations of a Review Committee, the Bonds Automated Trading System (BATS) is currently being re-vamped.
Pace of development of Islamic Money and Sukuk market is a new phenomenon that gained importance with the induction of 6 full-fledged Islamic Banks and 16 conventional banks to conduct Islamic banking business in Pakistan; however the size of Sukuk Market is very small at the moment. To facilitate Corporates to raise short term funding i.e. up to 9 months, Commercial Papers have recently been allowed but the market has yet to take its roots. According to the detailed World Bank report in 2009, the domestic bond outstanding was 25.16percent of the GDP, equivalent to $32.41 billion. This consists of mainly government bonds, asthe corporate market is yet to develop. Currently, Outstanding T-bills are roughly Rs. 700 billion. Banks hold Rs. 658 billion worth of short term paper and the remaining six percent or Rs. 42billion are held by corporations. Outstanding PIB amount is Rs. 425 billion, out which, Rs. 250billion or 60 percent of holding is with non-banks and corporations. Of the remaining Rs. 175billion, approximately Rs. 40 billion is held in held-to-maturity (HTM). Bonds worth Rs. 95 billion are in 15 years tenor and beyond, they are not traded in the interbank market and are mostly subscribed by insurance companies, pension funds or held by corporations as investment of gratuity or provident funds. The daily interbank average PIB trading volume is roughly Rs 25-30 billion. Daily Treasury Bills outright trading volume is not even Rs one billion. This clearly reflects a serious lack of depth in the market. Corporation that hold 60 percent of the total PIBs do not trade in bonds and hold the paper as investment in long term securities. Therefore, to increase market activity, government institutions need to play an active role in developing secondary market by increasing two-way trading activity, otherwise bond market will never grow.
T-Bills
The bills are issued at a discount. The investors are required to quote the price at which they are willing to buy t-bills of Rs.100 face value. Individuals, institutions and corporate bodies including banks/DFIs are eligible to purchase the bills. The principal and profit accrued thereon is guaranteed by the government. Principal and profit is payable on maturity. T-bills can be traded freely and are transferable by endorsement and delivery. Tax is deducted at source under the Income Tax Ordinance 1979.
Bonds are of three different maturity periods viz. three years, five years and ten years. Short-term FIBs have also been issued. Individuals, institutions and corporate bodies including banks, irrespective of their residential status can purchase bonds. There is no quantitative limit on purchases. Bonds are redeemable at par on completion of their respective maturity period. In case cash is require before the maturity date of the bond, the investor may approach his banker et his bonds converted into cash at the market price. In the manner, the government bonds can be traded freely in the secondary market before their maturity date. Each bank is required to display daily sale and purchase prices of bonds at their main branches in major cities. WAPDA, NDFC, BEL, PICIC, and some other firms have also issued non-government corporate bonds and certificates. Trading is very limited. Investment banks which were expected to play a major market-making role have not succeeded in doing so. Term Finance Certificate (TFCs) has been issued by financial and manufacturing companies from time to time. 62 TFCs instruments have been issued on the KSE during 1996-2003 (21 of these were issued in 2002-2003). The secondary market is shallow and largely confined to the public debt sector. The range of financial assets available is limited. The growth of the secondary market has been restricted by the expansion of the national saving schemes (NSS), which are very popular with the public. Rates of return in the secondary market are generally lower than those offered by the national saving schemes although rates on these schemes have been drastically reduced during 2000-2002. The growth of the secondary market is limited by the interventions of the government in the auctioning process to hold down interest rates. Such intervention has been reduced since 1997, when the autonomy of the state bank was recognized through the amendment of the State Bank of Pakistan Act 1962. About Rs.5 billion worth of TFCs were issued during 1995-2000. There was major upsurge in 2002 but the secondary market in TFCs is very undeveloped. Pakistan Investment Bond issues are significantly larger (exceeding Rs.100 billion in 2001-2002 for example). A secondary market has not developed in PIBs and PIBs are not regarded as a capital market instrument. The public is not informed of what the government does with the money raised through Pakistan Investment Bond issues. ((money and banking in Pakistan, fifth edition, SA Meenai, oxford university press,2004))
price is just due to the supply and demand not because of market attractiveness of these securities. These all factors limited the secondary market for these securities. A benchmark yield curve is developed by introducing a large number of bonds in the market, increase trading of these securities and through increasing market by making entry easy for both domestic and foreign investors. In 2006 PIBs auction shows a government intention towards the development of long-term yield curve.
in limited hands and their avoidance of further sale limit the number of investors. Government should increase the market share by issue new long-term bonds securities having different options according to the types of investors at a market prevailed interest rate so that it would attract a large number of investors.
8.Development of Infrastructure
A well developed and efficient clearing, settlement, registration and trading center should be established for a good bond market that will centralize all buying and selling of securities. However in 1993, the Central Depository Company of Pakistan Limited was created for the settlement and clearance. In addition to it, two credit rating agencies Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (PACRA) and JCR-VIS.
Conclusion
Bond Markets are increasingly becoming a significant source of financing for the private and public sectors in Pakistan. Corporate financing in Pakistan, similar to other emerging markets, is dominated by bank loaning and issuance of equity stocks. There are a number of advantages to development a domestic bond market to harmonize the banking sector. These include increased financial stability, more competitive financial sector, more efficient allocation of credit, and as well organized and diversified portfolio of assets. The domestic bond market in Pakistan faced marvelous growth since its commencement in 1995. Recently, more and more financial institutions are focusing on the term finance certificate market as compared to non-financial firms. Although the local bond market is growing and issuance of local bonds is increasing over the year; however, there are some impediments to bond market development still exist which includes lack of long term bench-mark rates as a result of thin secondary market for sovereign bonds, crowding out of the government securities and some administrative barriers in term of high trading cost. There is a yet lot to do by the regulators to support the local bond market development. This can be promoted by regularly issuing local currency bonds at market rates regardless of financing needs, concentrating issuance on multiple lengths of maturities and reducing borrowing from unfunded sources. The liquidity of the bond market could be enhanced by strengthening data and useful information dissemination regarding corporate bond transactions, providing a REPO facility for corporate bonds, and allowing short selling. Finally, transaction cost in terms of stamp duty and administrative costs should be reduced to make bonds issuance more cost
issues throughout the year, according to SBP Annual Report on the working of the Bank (Performance Review) for the year 2009-10 released recently. The report stated that investors seemed most interested in 10-year PIBs, as about 60 per cent of the money was raised through this tenor. As a result of these borrowings, the outstanding balance of the PIBs increased to Rs 505.29 billion at the end of FY10 compared to Rs 440.99 billion at the end of FY09. MARKET TREASURY BILLS A net amount of Rs467 billion (face value) was generated by the Government by means of Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) in 2009-10 compared to net Rs304 billion in the previous year. A total of 25 auctions were held by SBP during the year in which the primary dealers offered an accumulative amount of Rs3.2 trillion against the target amount of Rs1.36 trillion. In an effort to broaden the investor base, SBP allowed non-competitive bids in June 2009 - a process that allows individuals, small investors and non-banks to invest directly in MTBs. A total amount of Rs20 billion (face value) was raised through non-competitive bids during FY10. Mutual funds remained the most active non-bank investors in the MTBs capturing 63 per cent share in total amount raised via noncompetitive bids. SBP is also working in collaboration with National Institutional Facilitation Technologies (Pvt) Ltd, to develop a web portal where retail investors will be able to place noncompetitive bids directly in each auction, Report said. GOVERNMENT IJARA SUKUK The issuance of Government of Pakistan Ijara Sukuk which had been a longstanding need of Islamic banking industry has also served as a new source of funds for the Government. The Report revealed that during FY10 government conducted only one Sukuk auction of 3-year tenor amounting to Rs15.32. A total of four tranches of GoP Ijara Sukuk had been issued since its introduction in 2008 amounting to Rs42.24 billion. E-BOND: ELECTRONIC BOND TRADING PLATFORM As a major step in the development of fixed income markets in Pakistan, an electronic fixed income trading platform provided by Bloomberg called EBND was launched on January 11, 2010. The platform is currently being used for trading of government securities only; however, it has the capacity to support trading of corporate debt instruments as well. EBND which is already in use in 18 countries has the following key features: A central display provides the best live quotes by price makers of all outstanding issues. Dissemination of real time information to investors on transactions in fixed income market. Price takers can approach multiple price makers for firm quotes. Choice for price makers to enter and trade on firm, anonymous orders. Facilitate for users to customize their counterparty credit database. Option to manually input any bilateral deal which is not concluded on Bloomberg through a Voice Trade Capture feature. Although this is a front-end system, straight through processing interface is possible with local settlement systems and banks internal systems as it is based on FIX protocol.
The report predicted that the introduction of this platform is expected to provide not only a boost to fixed income market; it also has a lot for all market participants. The availability of real-time information about yields and turnover will help the issuer in determining demand for its paper and make better funding decisions. Moreover, the platform is likely to attract more investors to the market as the price discovery process becomes much easier resulting into enhanced liquidity and lower liquidity premium. This will also result in further development of liquid yield curves for various market segments. With the availability of a widened investor base, banks would be able to shift Govt debt from their books freeing up funds for private sector credit, it said. The fact that Bloomberg is offering its services in all major financial markets in the world is another advantage of the system as it will provide international investors with an additional window on Pakistans economy, it added.
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The size of the overall external debt had reached $58.698 billion during the third quarter (JulySeptember) of the year 2010. According to fresh foreign debt and liabilities data posted by SBP on its website on Thursday, as on December 31, 2010, the stock of public debt including the government debt, countrys debt on IMF loans and interest charges, and other foreign exchange liabilities to be repaid by the government slightly slashed to $54.637 billion compared to $54.794 billion in July-September 2010. Within public debt the government debt increased to $44.801 billion from $44.786 billion in the third quarter of the past year. Similarly, the debt on the medium to long term loans to be paid back to Paris Club and other multilateral and bilateral lending institutions also rose to $43.938 billion, compared with $43.906 billion during the period under review. SBP reported. Pakistans debt on IMF loans stood at $8.736 billion of which $1.922 billion and $6.814 billion owned by the federal government and the central bank, respectively. Foreign exchange liabilities stood at $1.100 billion, SBP data said. An economist believe external financing has slowed sharply as debt sustainability concerns have grown, the IMF has withheld USD 3.4 billion of funds since May 2010. Bank borrowing will rise significantly as the government stops printing money. The Q1-2011 auction target for T-bills and bonds is Rs 1,060 billion, versus Rs 711 million of issuance in Q4-2010. Given that bank holdings of government securities already stand at Rs 1.8 trillion, double the SBPs reserve requirement, markets will demand a higher premium to hold any further supply. Public debt increased alarmingly to 66 per cent of GDP by September 2010 compared with 56.7 per cent in September 2009, raising concerns over debt sustainability.
KARACHI - Due to resumption in the IMF-supported Stand-By Arrangement Programme, Pakistan is expected to start receiving all of its remaining funds from the US and other multilateral lending agencies in the last quarter (April-June) of the current fiscal year 2010-11.
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Besides disbursement of pending $1.7 billion funds of a total IMF loan to Pakistan in June 2011, around $600 million worth of aid flows could be released under the Kerry-Lugar Bill between March and June 2011. Similarly, a large amount of the US military aid seems to be materialised by the US administration under its loan instrument of Coalition Support Fund (CSF) during the upcoming quarter. This sort of external financing, which is likely to come in the form of the aid and capital flows, will bring a short-term stability to countrys economy, bolstering Pakistans foreign exchange reserves position and shore up the value of Pak rupee against the US dollar ad other major currencies. According to a latest report issued by the Standard Chartered Bank, the austerity measures announced by the federal government recently in a view to curb the budget deficit to 5.5 percent of GDP for the FY11 along with revival of the IMF programme will give a significant boost to the economy and revive the confidence of the investors. Such measures will give the US administration confidence to release the deferred funds. The US administration has pledged $1.5 billion of annual aid under the Kerry-Lugar bill, but only $250 million was released during the first eight months of FY11. Disbursement has been slow due to the suspension of the IMF programme and, more recently, the US protest against the imprisonment in Pakistan of the US official Raymond Davis on murder charges. On 16 March, the matter was resolved as courts acquitted Davis after he reached a settlement with the families of the deceased, the report stated. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have pledged $1 billion each for reconstruction spending in flood-affected areas. During the first seven months of FY11, Pakistan received only $550 million from the World Bank and $400 million from ADB. The slow disbursement has been due to the suspension of the IMF programme; the resumption of the programme is likely to prompt these multilateral agencies to resume lending, the report revealed. The report projected that austerity measures and higher external financing would reduce government borrowing from the markets. Yields should continue to inch down on lower T-bill/bond supply. However, inflation is likely to pick up in the short-term due to rising international commodity prices and new tax measures. The removal of general sales tax (GST) exemptions, the increase in excise duty and the reduction of power subsidies will push inflation higher in Q2CY11. The central bank is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged at 14 percent in 2011 given inflation risks, limiting the downside for the rates market. Unlike in the past, the government is now demonstrating its commitment to stop printing money, the main cause of high inflation. Since January 2011, the government has limited its borrowing from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to Rs 1.29 trillion, implying zero net borrowing. This has helped to contain money supply growth M2 growth decelerated to 14.5 percent YoY as of end-February 2011 from 16 per cent YoY at the end of 2010. Inflation slowed to 12.9 percent YoY in February from 15.5 percent at end2010, it mentioned.
KARACHI - The State Bank of Pakistan has drained the excessive amount of liquidity from the banking system through auctions and open market operations in the first eight months of the current fiscal year 2010-11, in an effort to ensure the smooth functioning of the money markets.
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To keep the inter-bank money market liquidity condition in line with the monetary policy stance, SBP moped up Rs540.2 billion during July-February FY11 compared with Rs227.8 billion during the same period last year; whereas injections in the market by the central bank remained low. Moreover, commercial banks deposited Rs673.2 billion with SBP under overnight repo facility (floor for interest rate corridor) compared to Rs226.7 billion during the corresponding period of the last financial year. In its latest quarterly report, the State Bank of Pakistan said liquidity conditions in the money market remained fairly comfortable during Jul-Feb FY11 on account of government borrowings from SBP and growth in bank deposits. The report further revealed that the government accepted Rs180.8 billion (net of maturities) during Jul-Feb FY11 against a net target of Rs89.5 billion. With drying up external financing and the fall in non-bank sources, government was left with little option but to borrow heavily from the banking system. Earlier in the fiscal year, when prospects of external financing were good, government had rejected all bids in auctions of longer tenure Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) due to high rates demanded by banks. Banks on the other hand, were anticipating an increase in interest rates and therefore were more interested in shorter term T-bills, it mentioned. The PIBs auction target of Rs105.0 billion was set for Jul-Feb FY11 against maturities of Rs27.4 billion. The government, however, rejected all bids in the first two auctions (July and August 2010) due to high returns demanded by banks. In subsequent auctions, with an aim to retire SBP borrowings, the government accepted Rs53.0 billion, but this was still lower than target, the report said. Against a target of Rs80.0 billion for the two Sukuks auctions held in the Jul-Feb FY11 period, Rs89.0 billion were accepted. The government received offers of Rs122.5 billion, which reflects strong liquidity position of Islamic banks and their investment appetite for this asset class, the report added.
Bibliography
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/government-bond-yield http://www.ciitlahore.edu.pk/Papers/Abstracts/146-8588969311707837058.pdf
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Business/20-Nov-2010/Pakistans-bondmarket-on-a-rising-trend
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http://www.lse.com.pk/Markets/DebtMarket.aspx
ISLAMABAD STOCK EXCHANGE BOND AUTOMATED TRADING SYSTEM (ISEBATS) REGULATIONS http://www.ise.com.pk/Regulation/PDF/ISE_Bond_Automated_Trading_System_Regulations.pdf
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