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Debates in Macroeconomics:
Monetarism, New Classical
Theory, and Supply-Side
Economics
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Keynesian Economics
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In a broad sense, Keynesian
economics is the foundation of
modern macroeconomics. In a
narrower sense, Keynesian refers to
economists who advocate active
government intervention in the
economy.
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Keynesian Economics
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Two major schools decidedly against
government intervention have
developed: monetarism and new
classical economics.
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Monetarism
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The main message of monetarists is
that money matters.
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Monetarism
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The monetarist analysis of the
economy places emphasis on the
velocity of money, or the number of
times a dollar bill changes hands, on
average, during a year; the ratio of
nominal GDP to the stock of money
(M):
V
GDP
M
or V
P Y
M
since
then,
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GDP P Y
M V P Y
Karl Case, Ray Fair
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The quantity theory of money is a
theory based on the identity
M x V = P x Y and the assumption
that the velocity of money (V) is
constant (or virtually constant).
Then, the theory can be written as
the following equality:
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M V = P Y
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If there is equilibrium in the money
market, then the quantity of money
supplied is equal to the quantity of
money demanded. When M is taken
to be the quantity of money
demanded, this equality would make
the quantity of money demanded
dependent on nominal GDP, but not
the interest rate.
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The demand for money may depend
not only on nominal income, but also
on the interest rate.
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Inflation as a Purely
Monetary Phenomenon
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Inflation as a Purely
Monetary Phenomenon
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Milton Friedman has been the
leading spokesman for monetarism
over the last few decades.
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Most monetarists do not advocate an
activist monetary policy
stabilizationexpanding the money
supply during bad times and slowing
its growth during good times.
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Time lags are the most common
argument against such
management.
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Many Keynesians advocate the
application of coordinated monetary
and fiscal policy tools to reduce
instability in the economyto fight
inflation and unemployment.
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Others reject the strict monetarist
position in favor of the view that both
monetary and fiscal policies make a
difference and at the same time
believe the best possible policy is
basically noninterventionist.
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On the theoretical level, new
classical macroeconomists argue
that traditional models have
assumed that expectations are
formed in naive ways.
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Naive expectations are inconsistent
with the assumptions of
microeconomics. If people are out to
maximize utility and profits, they
should form their expectations in a
smarter way.
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On the empirical level, new classical
theories were an attempt to explain
the apparent breakdown in the
1970s of the simple inflationunemployment trade-off predicted by
the Phillips Curve.
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Rational Expectations
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The rational-expectations
hypothesis assumes people know
the true model of the economy and
that they use this model to form their
expectations of the future.
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Rational Expectations
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People are said to have rational
expectations if they use all available
information in forming their
expectations.
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Rational Expectations
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Because there are costs associated
with making a wrong forecast, it is
not rational to overlook information,
as long as the costs of acquiring that
information do not outweigh the
benefits of improving its accuracy.
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Rational Expectations
and Market Clearing
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Rational Expectations
and Market Clearing
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The Lucas supply function is the
supply function that embodies the
idea that output (Y) depends on the
difference between the actual price
level (P) and the expected price level
(Pe):
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Y = f ( P Pe )
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The difference between the actual
price level and the expected price
level is the price surprise.
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( P Pe )
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The rationale for the Lucas supply
function is that unexpected increases
in the price level can fool workers
and firms into thinking that relative
prices have changed, causing them
to alter the amount of labor or goods
they choose to supply.
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Rational-expectations theory,
combined with the Lucas supply
function, proposes a very small role
for government policy in the
economy.
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Evaluating
Rational-Expectations Theory
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Evaluating
Rational-Expectations Theory
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The real business cycle theory is
an attempt to explain business cycle
fluctuations under assumptions of
complete price and wage flexibility
and rational expectations. It
emphasizes shocks to technology
and other shocks.
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Supply-Side Economics
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Orthodox macro theory consists of
demand-oriented theories that failed to
explain the stagflation of the 1970s.
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With the tax rate measured on the
vertical axis and tax revenue
measured on the horizontal axis, the
Laffer curve shows there is some
tax rate beyond which the supply
response is large enough to lead to a
decrease in tax revenue for further
increases in the tax rate.
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The Laffer curve shows
the amount of revenue
the government collects
is a function of the tax
rate.
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When tax rates are very
high, an increase in the
tax rate could cause tax
revenues to fall.
Similarly, a cut in the
tax rate could generate
enough additional
economic activity to
cause revenues to rise.
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Among the criticisms of supply-side
economics is that it is unlikely a tax
cut would substantially increase the
supply of labor.
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Testing Alternative
Macroeconomic Models
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Laffer curve
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velocity of money
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Principles of Economics, 7/e
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