March 25, 2008

The Honorable ROBERT C. BYRD

President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Washington, D.C. 20510
The Honorable NANCY PELOSI
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. 20515

DEAR SENATOR BYRD AND SPEAKER PELOSI:

We are pleased to transmit the record of our February 27 public hearing on “China's Views of
Sovereignty and Methods of Access Control.” The Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act
(amended by Pub. L. No. 109-108, section 635(a)) provides the basis for this hearing.

In this hearing, the Commission was generally told that the United States and China do not share a
common view of sovereignty and that China is actively attempting to protect and expand its sovereignty.
While strengthening its military capability to defend sovereignty claims, China is simultaneously pursuing
legal and diplomatic avenues of influence. Areas that potentially pose the greatest challenges to the
United States are in the domains of outer space and cyber space.

The opening panel on China’s Views of Sovereignty started with Dr. Allen Carlson of Cornell
University who asserted that, although “we commonly perceive China as having a sort of absolutist and
unyielding position on sovereignty,” in fact “its position has evolved and developed as its become more
deeply integrated in the international economic and political system.” He stressed the gradually evolving
nature of sovereignty concepts in the People's Republic of China, which have changed as the government
has interacted more with other countries. Dr. June Teufel Dreyer of the University of Miami asserted that
the PRC's position has evolved to a more rigid stance on issues of sovereignty. She reported that since the
1989 Tiananmen Square protests, the Chinese government has taken an uncompromising position in favor
of absolute state sovereignty in order to prevent outside entities from potentially aiding domestic political
unrest.

Dr. Robert Sutter of Georgetown University was featured on the second panel looking at China's
methods of advancing its sovereignty by non-military means. He stated that China's foreign policy has
shifted toward a “Gulliver Strategy,” whereby China attempts to build greater economic interdependence
with its Asian neighbors, including U.S. allies, so that these countries are more supportive of China and
less likely to join with the United States in efforts to pressure China. Dr. Sutter added that the "Gulliver
Strategy" has served to reinforce stability in Asia – which is consonant with the overall interests of the
United States, but that China remains a dissatisfied and aggrieved power. There is no guarantee that
changes in the balance of power and influence in Asia will not prompt China to adopt more coercive
means against Taiwan.

The third panel addressed China's methods of advancing its sovereignty by military means and
featured Mr. Roy Kamphausen of the National Bureau of Asian Research and Mr. Peter Dutton of the
Naval War College. Mr. Kamphausen pointed out that the Chinese military is the largest contributor of
forces to United Nations peacekeeping operations, of any Security Council permanent member, and its
growing capabilities and international activities are increasingly being used as an instrument to
consolidate and extend China’s sovereignty. Examples of this include greatly increased naval patrols in
contested waters and increased air surveillance flights over contested areas. Mr. Dutton noted that China's
interpretation of passage rights within its maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) continues to differ
from that of the international community. He said China contends the right of free passage in the EEZ
under the Law of the Sea Treaty does not extend to reconnaissance missions by military aircraft of other
nations. The United States does not agree with that interpretation.

Dr. Jim Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Mr. Philip Meek of the
Department of the Air Force were the final panelists of the day and addressed China's views of
sovereignty in outer space and cyber space. Mr. Meek explained how China uses "legal warfare" or
"lawfare," to describe a type of preemptive advocacy and/or lawmaking regarding controversial issues
with the objective of advancing China's position. Dr. Lewis asserted that the best response by the United
States is continually to "assert its rights consistent with international law and practice."

The prepared statements of the hearing witnesses and the complete hearing transcript can be found
on the Commission’s website at www.uscc.gov. Members of the Commission are available to provide
more detailed briefings. We hope this hearing and its materials will be helpful as the Congress continues
its assessment of U.S.-China relations.

Sincerely yours,

Larry M. Wortzel Carolyn Bartholomew

Chairman Vice Chairman

cc: Members of Congress and Congressional Staff

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 CHINA’S VIEWS OF SOVEREIGNTY
AND METHODS OF ACCESS CONTROL

HEARING
BEFORE THE

U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY

REVIEW COMMISSION

ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS

SECOND SESSION
_________
FEBRUARY 27, 2008

_________

Printed for use of the

Un ited States- Ch in a Econo mic and S e cur ity Rev iew Co mmis s ion
Av ailab le v ia th e W orld W id e W eb : www.u scc.gov

UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION

WASHINGTON : MARCH 2008
 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION

LARRY M. WORTZEL, Chairman

CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, Vice Chairman

Commissioners:
PETER T.R. BROOKES Hon. WILLIAM A. REINSCH
DANIEL BLUMENTHAL Hon. DENNIS C. SHEA
MARK ESPER DANIEL M. SLANE
JEFFREY FIEDLER PETER VIDENIEKS
Hon. PATRICK A. MULLOY MICHAEL R. WESSEL

T. SCOTT BUNTON, Executive Director

KATHLEEN J. MICHELS, Associate Director

The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National
Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT.
1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C.§ 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of
staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public
Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the
"Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003," Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003)
(regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of
Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109-108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005)
(regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by
Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008, “Public Law No. 110-161
(December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the
Annual Report due date from June to December).

The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov.

ii
 CONTENTS
_____

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2008

IMPLICATIONS OF SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND INVESTMENTS FOR

NATIONAL SECURITY

Opening statement of Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew ……………. 1

Opening statement of Commissioner Jeffrey Fiedler, Hearing Cochair…… 2
Opening statement of Commissioner Mark T. Esper, Hearing Cochair…… 3

PANEL I: CONGRESSIONAL PERSPECTIVES

Statement of Bill Nelson, a U.S. Senator from the State of Florida…………. 9

PANEL II: CHINESE VIEWS OF SOVEREIGNTY

Statement of Dr. Allen R. Carlson, Associate Professor, Government

Department, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York…………………………….. 4
Prepared statement …………………………………………………………… 7

Statement of Dr. June Teufel Dreyer, Professor, University of Miami School of

Business Administration, Coral Gables, Florida ………………………………… 7
Prepared statement……………………………………………………………… 15
Panel II: Discussion, Questions and Answers …………………………………… 15

PANEL III: CHINESE METHODS OF ADVANCING SOVEREIGNTY BY NON-

MILITARY MEANS

Statement of Dr. Robert G. Sutter, Visiting Professor of Asian Studies,

School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C………….. 34
Prepared statement…………………………………………………………….. 37
Panel III: Discussion, Questions and Answers …………………………………. 40

PANEL IV: CHINESE METHODS OF ADVANCING SOVERIEGNTY BY

MILITARY MEANS

Statement of Mr. Peter A. Dutton, Associate Professor, China Maritime Studies

Institute, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island……………………… 59
Prepared statement……………………………………………………………… 62
Statement of Lt. Col. (Ret.) Roy D. Kamphausen, Vice President of Political
and Security Affairs Director, National Bureau of Asian Research, Wash, DC…. 63
Prepared statement……………………………………………………………… 65
Panel IV: Discussion, Questions and Answers…………………………………… 66

iii
PANEL V: CHINESE VIEWS OF SOVEREIGNTY IN SPACE AND CYBERSPACE

Statement of Mr. Phillip A. Meek, Associate General Counsel (International

Affairs), Department of the Air Force, Washington, D.C………………………. 90
Prepared statement…………………………………………………………….. 94
Statement of Mr. James A. Lewis, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and
International Studies, Washington, D.C…………………………………………. 100
Prepared statement……………………………………………………………. 103
Panel V: Discussion, Questions and Answers………………………………….. 107

iv
 CHINA'S VIEWS OF SOVEREIGNTY
AND METHODS OF ACCESS CONTROL
_________

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2008

U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION

Washington, D.C.

T h e C o mmi s s i o n me t i n R o o m 5 6 2 , D i r k s e n S e n a t e O f f i c e
B u i l d i n g , Wa s h i n g t o n , D . C . a t 9 : 0 0 a . m. , C h a i r ma n L a r r y M . Wo r t z e l ,
V i c e C h a i r ma n C a r o l y n B a r t h o l o me w , a n d C o mmi s s i o n e r s M a r k T .
Esper and Jeffrey Fiedler (Hearing Cochairs), presiding.

OPENING STATEMENT OF VICE CHAIRMAN

CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW

V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: G o o d mo r n i n g , e v e r y o n e .
We l c o me t o t h e s e c o n d h e a r i n g o f t h e U . S . - C h i n a E c o n o mi c a n d
S e c u r i t y R e v i e w C o mmi s s i o n 's 2 0 0 8 r e p o r t i n g c y c l e . We a r e v e r y
p l e a s e d t h a t y o u c o u l d b e h e r e t o d a y . I 'd l i k e t o e x t e n d a w a r m
w e l c o me t o a l l o f y o u a n d t o t h a n k y o u f o r y o u r i n t e r e s t i n t h e
C o mmi s s i o n ' s w o r k .
A t t o d a y 's h e a r i n g , w e w i l l b e e x p l o r i n g t h e c o n c e p t s o f
s o v e r e i g n t y t h a t a r e a d v a n c e d b y t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t . I n s o me
c i r c u ms t a n c e s , t h e s e c o n c e p t s a r e a t o d d s w i t h i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f
international law as understood by the United States and they also play
a r o l e i n c o n f l i c t i n g t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i ms b e t w e e n C h i n a a n d s o me i t s
neighbors in Asia.
F u r t h e r mo r e , t h e c o n t i n u i n g a d v a n c e s i n o u t e r s p a c e e x p l o r a t i o n
and use and in use of cyberspace raise questions regarding how
s o v e r e i g n t y i s d e f i n e d i n t h e s e c r i t i c a l r e a l ms o f e c o n o mi c a n d
i n f o r ma t i o n e x c h a n g e a n d w h a t a r e t h e r i g h t s o f l a w f u l i n t e r n a t i o n a l
access.
We h o p e t h a t t h i s h e a r i n g w i l l a d d t o t h e p u b l i c d i a l o g u e o n
t h e s e i s s u e s , w h i c h I a m c o n f i d e n t w i l l a s s u me e v e r g r e a t e r i mp o r t a n c e
i n t h e mo n t h s a n d y e a r s a h e a d .
T h r o u g h o u t t h e d a y t o d a y , w e w i l l b e h e a r i n g t e s t i mo n y f r o m
d i s t i n g u i s h e d me mb e r s o f t h e a c a d e mi c a n d p u b l i c p o l i c y r e s e a r c h
c o mmu n i t i e s w h o w i l l c o n t r i b u t e t h e i r v i e w s a n d i n s i g h t s r e g a r d i n g t h e
p o s i t i o n s o f t h e U . S . a n d C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t s o n i s s u e s o f n a t i o n a l
s o v e r e i g n t y a n d a c c e s s t o t h e g l o b a l c o mmo n s . A thorough
u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e s e i s s u e s w i l l b e o f t r e me n d o u s i mp o r t a n c e i n t h e
future of U.S.-China relations and we hope that this hearing will assist
t h e p u b l i c a n d p o l i c y ma k i n g c o mmu n i t y i n c o mi n g t o b e t t e r i n f o r me d
j u d g me n t s o n t h e s e c o mp l e x a n d d i f f i c u l t i s s u e s .
T h e c o c h a i r s o f t h i s h e a r i n g a r e my e s t e e me d c o l l e a g u e s ,
C o mmi s s i o n e r s M a r k E s p e r a n d J e f f r e y F i e d l e r . I w o u l d n o w l i k e t o
t u r n t h e mi c r o p h o n e o v e r t o C o mmi s s i o n e r F i e d l e r f o r h i s o p e n i n g
r e ma r k s .

OPENING STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER JEFFREY FIEDLER

HEARING COCHAIR

H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : T h a n k y o u . T h e C o mmi s s i o n ' s
ma n d a t e f r o m C o n g r e s s r e q u i r e s u s t o c l o s e l y mo n i t o r t h e e c o n o mi c
a n d s e c u r i t y d i me n s i o n s o f t h e U . S . - C h i n a r e l a t i o n s h i p . I 'm p l e a s e d t o
c o c h a i r t h i s h e a r i n g o n C h i n a 's v i e w s o f s o v e r e i g n t y a n d me t h o d s o f
a c c e s s c o n t r o l , w h i c h h a v e s i g n i f i c a n t i mp l i c a t i o n s f o r U . S . i n t e r e s t s
around the world and for international peace and security.
T h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s h e a r i n g i s t o a s s e s s C h i n a 's v i e w s o f
s o v e r e i g n t y , t o e x a mi n e C h i n a 's a c c e s s c o n t r o l s o f b o t h a mi l i t a r y a n d
a n o n - mi l i t a r y n a t u r e , a n d t o d e t e r mi n e t h e i mp a c t o f t h o s e a c c e s s
controls on U.S. national security.
A s C h i n a 's e c o n o mi c p o w e r g r o w s a l o n g w i t h i t s p o l i t i c a l
influence in global affairs, clearly understanding how Chinese views
on sovereignty diverge with the views of the United States, as well as
t h e v i e w s o f t h e b r o a d e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y , i s v i t a l t o o u r
efforts to avoid potential conflict, not just in Asia, but around the
globe.
Wi t h C h i n a 's c o n t i n u e d mi l i t a r y d e v e l o p me n t a n d e x p a n d i n g
global reach, it is vital that the United States play a role in
e n c o u r a g i n g C h i n a 's c o mp l i a n c e w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s a n d i t s
cooperation in global security efforts. Additionally, this hearing is an
opportunity to consider what the United States can do to encourage
C h i n a t o mo r e f u l l y a n d v i g o r o u s l y i mp l e me n t i t s c o mmi t me n t s .
I l o o k f o r w a r d t o t h e t e s t i mo n y o f o u r e x p e r t w i t n e s s e s a n d t o
t h e r e c o mme n d a t i o n s t h a t t h e y ma y p r o v i d e f o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n b y t h e
C o mmi s s i o n . T h a n k y o u a g a i n f o r b e i n g h e r e , a n d I w i l l t u r n t h i s o v e r
t o C o mmi s s i o n e r E s p e r .
- 2 -
 OPENING STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER MARK T. ESPER
HEARING COCHAIR

HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you. I would like to

w e l c o me e v e r y o n e t o t o d a y 's h e a r i n g . I a m p l e a s e d t o b e s e r v i n g a s a
c o c h a i r f o r t h i s h e a r i n g a l o n g w i t h my c o l l e a g u e C o mmi s s i o n e r
Fiedler.
A s me n t i o n e d t o d a y , w e w i l l b e e x a mi n i n g C h i n a 's v i e w s o f
s o v e r e i g n t y a n d t h e me t h o d s C h i n a mi g h t e mp l o y t o p r o t e c t a n d
advance its sovereignty. T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l w a y s t h i s mi g h t b e
a c c o mp l i s h e d . T h e d e v e l o p me n t a n d e mp l o y me n t o f mi l i t a r y f o r c e i s
o n e me t h o d t h a t c o me s f i r s t t o mi n d . A s w e a r e a l l w e l l a w a r e , C h i n a 's
defense spending has increased at a rate of over ten percent annually
f o r t h e l a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s . T h e C h i n e s e d e f e n s e b u d g e t i n c r e a s e d mo r e
t h a n 1 7 p e r c e n t i n 2 0 0 7 a l o n e , h a s t e n i n g t h e p a c e o f B e i j i n g 's mi l i t a r y
mo d e r n i z a t i o n .
F i e l d i n g mo r e c a p a b l e s y s t e ms a n d f o r c e s h a s i n c r e a s e d C h i n a 's
ability to safeguard its sovereignty and control air, land and sea
a c c e s s . I t s d e mo n s t r a t i o n o f a n a n t i - s a t e l l i t e w e a p o n h a s s h o w n t h a t
China possesses the ability to pursue its interests in space.
Y e t , e v e n w i t h C h i n a 's mi l i t a r y a d v a n c e s , w e s h o u l d n o t r e s t r i c t
o u r a n a l y s i s t o t h i s d o ma i n . C h i n a a p p e a r s t o b e t a k i n g a mu c h b r o a d e r
approach in how it protects its sovereignty to include areas such as
d o me s t i c l e g i s l a t i o n , i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w , a n d s t r a t e g i c c o mmu n i c a t i o n s .
T h e s e ma y a l l b e e mp l o y e d p r i o r t o o r a s a p r e c e d e n t f o r mi l i t a r y
action. As such, we look forward to our panelists helping us define
a n d e x a mi n e t h e s e n o n - mi l i t a r y me a n s o f s a f e g u a r d i n g a n d a d v a n c i n g
C h i n e s e s o v e r e i g n t y c l a i ms . We h o p e t o l o o k a t t h i s i s s u e b o t h
h i s t o r i c a l l y a n d p r o s p e c t i v e l y w i t h a p a r t i c u l a r e mp h a s i s o n o u t e r
space and cyberspace.
S o me e x c e l l e n t w i t n e s s e s h a v e a g r e e d t o a p p e a r b e f o r e u s t o d a y .
I l o o k f o r w a r d t o t h e i n s i g h t s t h e y w i l l p r o v i d e t h i s C o mmi s s i o n o n
these issues, and I would like to thank all them for being here today.
Thank you.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : T h a n k y o u . We a r e w a i t i n g f o r
S e n a t o r N e l s o n t o a r r i v e , B i l l N e l s o n f r o m F l o r i d a , w h o 's f i r s t o n t h e
a g e n d a t h i s mo r n i n g , a n d h e s h o u l d b e h e r e s h o r t l y .
[ Wh e r e u p o n , a s h o r t r e c e s s w a s t a k e n . ]

PANEL II: CHINESE VIEWS OF SOVEREIGNTY

HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: We w i l l g e t s t a r t e d a n d w i t h

- 3 -
the forbearance of our witnesses interrupt you when Senator Nelson
a r r i v e s a n d t h e n r e s u me w h e n h e 's f i n i s h e d .
Our first panel is Dr. Allen Carlson and Dr. June Teufel Dreyer,
a f o r me r c o mmi s s i o n e r o f t h i s a u g u s t b o d y .
Dr. Carlson is the author of Unifying China, Integrating with the
Wo r l d : S e c u r i n g C h i n e s e S o v e r e i g n t y D u r i n g t h e R e f o r m E r a . H e i s a
professor of political science at Cornell University. He is currently
w o r k i n g o n a n e w r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t t h a t e x a mi n e s C h i n a 's r i s e a n d t h e
future of U.S.-China relations from the perspective of nontraditional
security issues.
Dr. Dreyer is a professor of political science at the University of
M i a mi a n d , a s I me n t i o n e d , a f o r me r c o mmi s s i o n e r . H e r r e s e a r c h
f o c u s e s o n C h i n e s e p o l i t i c s a n d d e f e n s e i s s u e s . A mo n g h e r ma n y
b o o k s i s t h e C h i n e s e P o l i t i c a l S y s t e m: M o d e r n i z a t i o n a n d T r a d i t i o n ,
which is now in its sixth edition.
Professor Dreyer is currently a fellow of the Foreign Policy
Research Institute and serves on the USCI Board of Scholars. She is a
me mb e r o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t ut e o f S t r a t e g i c S t u d i e s i n L o n d o n
a n d o f t h e e d i t o r i a l b o a r d s o f O r b i s a n d T h e J o u r n a l o f C o n t e mp o r a r y
China.
We l c o me . We w i l l s t a r t w i t h D r . C a r l s o n . I j u s t r e mi n d y o u t h a t
o u r p r o c e d u r e a n d r u l e s a r e y o u h a v e s e v e n mi n u t e s . We 'l l e n t e r y o u r
t e s t i mo n y i n t o t h e r e c o r d . We h a v e a b u n c h mo r e t i me t h i s mo r n i n g
t h a n w e mi g h t n o r ma l l y h a v e s o w e ma y l e t y o u g o a l i t t l e b i t l o n g e r .
Thank you.
D R . C A R L S O N : A s a n a c a d e mi c w h o i s u s e d t o h a v i n g g r a d
s t u d e n t s a n d u n d e r g r a d s a t my d i s p o s a l , I n o r ma l l y g e t a b o u t t w o
h o u r s . Wi l l t h a t b e e n o u g h ?
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: Wi l l w e b e t e s t e d a t t h e
end?

STATEMENT OF DR. ALLEN R. CARLSON,

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT,
CORNELL UNIVERSITY, ITHACA, NEW YORK

DR. CARLSON: N o , a n d I w i l l k e e p my r e ma r k s s h o r t , i n
particular because I'm very interested to hear the sort of questions that
w i l l c o me f r o m t h e C o mmi s s i o n a n d e n g a g e i n d i a l o g u e .
I a l s o w o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k y o u f o r i n v i t i n g me . I t ' s a r e a l h o n o r
t o b e h e r e . I t h i n k t h e C o mmi s s i o n h a s d o n e s o me r e a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g
w o r k o v e r t h e p a s t f i v e , s i x y e a r s , s i n c e i t w a s c r e a t e d , a n d I 'm
p a r t i c u l a r l y h a p p y t o b e h e r e b e c a u s e I 'v e s p e n t r e a l l y t h e p a s t t e n t o
12 years thinking on a daily basis about sovereignty and sovereignty-
r e l a t e d i s s u e s . I 'm h a p p y t o s h a r e s o me o f my r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s w i t h
- 4 -
t h e C o mmi s s i o n .
I 'l l b e g i n , I t h i n k , w h e n I v e r y f i r s t s t a r t e d t h i s , t h e w o r k t h a t
I 'v e d o n e o n s o v e r e i g n t y , a n d w h e n I r e a l i z e d t h a t I w a s o n t o
s o me t h i n g o f i mp o r t a n c e , I w a s i n B e i j i n g d o i n g i n t e r v i e w s - - i t w a s o n e
o f t h e f i r s t i n t e r v i e w s I h a d d o n e - - a n d I w a s me e t i n g w i t h t h e ma n w h o
w a s t h e n t h e h e a d o f t h e A me r i c a n S t u d i e s I n s t i t u t e i n B e i j i n g , w h o
t o l d me b e f o r e I e v e n s t a r t e d t h e i n t e r v i e w , t h a t h e h a d t h o u g h t f o r a
l o n g t i me a b o u t w r i t i n g a b o o k o n C h i n e s e f o r e i g n p o l i c y , a n d w a s
going to call it “Defending Sovereignty.” He proceeded to say he
never got around to it; he thought it would be too controversial and
didn't write it.
B u t , a t t h e t i me I t h o u g h t i f t h i s ma n , Wa n g J i s i , t h o u g h t t h i s
w a s a n i mp o r t a n t i s s u e , t h e n I s h o u l d p r o b a b l y s p e n d s o me t i me t r y i n g
t o ma k e s e n s e o f i t .
The difficulty when we turn to thinking about sovereignty,
t h o u g h , n o t j u s t i n a C h i n a c o n t e x t , b u t t h i n k i n g i n t e r ms o f
i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , i s i t 's s o me t h i n g t h a t 's w i d e l y p e r c e i v e d , w i d e l y
understood as being crucial to international relations, a cornerstone to
t h e c o n t e mp o r a r y i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m.
Y e t , I t h i n k i t 's a l s o q u i t e p o o r l y u n d e r s t o o d b o t h b y a c a d e mi c s
a n d p o l i c y ma k e r s . P r e s i d e n t s a n d l e a d e r s t a l k a b o u t , b u t w h a t 's t h e
s u b s t a n c e o f s u c h a c o mme n t , a n d s o I 'v e s p e n t a f a i r a mo u n t o f t i me
t h i n k i n g o f h o w t o c o n c e p t u a l i z e , h o w t o ma k e s e n s e o f t h i s i n a w a y
t h a t c a n b e b r o k e n d o w n , a n d e s s e n t i a l l y I c a me t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t
i t ma k e s s e n s e t o t h i n k o f s o v e r e i g n t y n o t a s a s i n g l e e n t i t y b u t r a t h e r
a s a s e t o f k i n d o f i n t e r l o c k i n g c o mp o n e n t s .
I t 's n o t o n e t h i n g ; i t 's a n u mb e r o f d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s i n t h e
i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m, o r g a n i z e d a r o u n d d i f f e r e n t s o r t o f i s s u e a r e a s o r
c o mp o n e n t s , a n d I b r o k e i t i n t o f o u r p a r t s - - w h a t I c a l l t e r r i t o r i a l
sovereignty, thinking about boundaries; jurisdictional sovereignty,
which is the right of the state over a people; sovereign authority,
w h i c h b a s i c a l l y i s c o mp o s e d o f t h e p r i n c i p l e o f n o n i n t e r f e r e n c e ; a n d
e c o n o mi c s o v e r e i g n t y , t h e r i g h t t o c o n t r o l e c o n o mi c a c t i v i t y w i t h i n a
territorially defined unit.
Wh e n w e l o o k a t s o v e r e i g n t y i n t h i s w a y , w e c a n s e e t h a t i t
me a n s a l o t o f d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s i n d i f f e r e n t p l a c e s , a n d t h e n I t h i n k
mu c h o f s t a t e c r a f t , mu c h o f d i p l o ma c y , o n t h e w o r l d s t a g e a c t u a l l y
c o n s i s t s o f l e a d e r s a n d p o l i c y ma k e r s t r y i n g t o d e f i n e w h e r e t h e l i n e s
t h a t s o v e r e i g n t y c r e a t e s a r e l o c a t e d a n d w h a t t h e y me a n .
T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i mp o r t a n t i n t h e C h i n a c a s e b e c a u s e i t ' s
o b v i o u s t h a t B e i j i n g p l a c e s a h e a v y , h e a v y e mp h a s i s o n s o v e r e i g n t y .
F r o m t h e b e g i n n i n g , f r o m M a o i n '4 9 t a l k i n g a b o u t C h i n a s t a n d i n g u p ,
C h i n a h a s b e e n a c o u n t r y w h i c h h a s s a i d s o v e r e i g n t y f o r ms a
c o r n e r s t o n e o f i t s r e l a t i o n w i t h t h e r e s t o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m.
- 5 -
 I t h i n k t h e n w e c o mmo n l y p e r c e i v e C h i n a a s h a v i n g a s o r t o f
absolutist and unyielding position on sovereignty. If you pay attention
just to Chinese rhetoric, just to the words that appear in places like
R e n mi n R i b a o a n d e l s e w h e r e , i t d o e s i n d e e d s e e m a s i f C h i n a h a s o n e
position.
H o w e v e r , i f y o u l o o k mo r e b r o a d l y , p a r t i c u l a r l y a t t h e f o u r i s s u e
areas that I just laid out, it's possible to discover that China has been
f a i r l y f l e x i b l e o n s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r t i me , a n d mo r e o v e r , i t s p o s i t i o n h a s
e v o l v e d a n d d e v e l o p e d a s i t b e c o me s mo r e d e e p l y i n t e g r a t e d i n t h e
i n t e r n a t i o n a l e c o n o mi c a n d p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m.
I f i n d t h i s t o b e t h e c a s e i n b o t h C h i n e s e p o l i c y ma k i n g a n d i n
d i s c u s s i o n s o f s o v e r e i g n t y w i t h i n C h i n a . S o o n e o f my b a s i c p o i n t s I
w a n t t o ma k e t o d a y i s t h a t t h e C h i n e s e p o s i t i o n o n s o v e r e i g n t y h a s
c h a n g e d a n d i t 's a l s o n o t a l l t h a t d i f f e r e n t t h a n w h a t y o u f i n d i n o t h e r
d e v e l o p i n g s t a t e s w h e r e t h e r e 's a s e n s e t h a t s o v e r e i g n t y i s a h a r d - w o n
right, but also a need to balance this right with the obligations that
c o me w i t h b e i n g a p l a y e r w i t h i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m.
O n t h e f o u r i s s u e a r e a s t h a t I d i s c u s s i n my w r i t t e n t e s t i mo n y ,
just very briefly, China starts out in the late 1970s being very
defensive of its territorial boundaries, having engaged in border wars
w i t h e a c h o f i t s ma j o r n e i g h b o r s .
O n t h e j u r i s d i c t i o n a l c o mp o n e n t , i t t a k e s a n a b s o l u t e s t a n c e i n
t e r ms o f i t s r i g h t t o r u l e o v e r T i b e t , T a i w a n , X i n j i a n g , a n d t o a c e r t a i n
extent Hong Kong.
In regards to sovereign authority, there is no question there will
b e n o i n t e r f e r e n c e i n C h i n a 's i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s . C h i n a c o mp l e t e l y r e j e c t s
t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l h u ma n r i g h t s , f o r e x a mp l e . I t 's n o t a
me mb e r o f a n y o f t h e t r e a t i e s .
O n e c o n o mi c s o v e r e i g n t y , C h i n a i s a l s o f a i r l y i n s u l a t e d , n o t
e n t i r e l y i n s u l a t e d , b u t i s n ' t a me mb e r o f a n y o f t h e ma j o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l
e c o n o mi c o r g a n i z a t i o n s .
Over the past 30 years, the Chinese policy on each of these four
issues has changed. In regards to territory, China has gone from using
f o r c e t o u s i n g t r e a t i e s t o s e c u r e i t s b o u n d a r i e s . Y e s , t h e r e 's s t i l l a
mi l i t a r y p r e s e n c e a l o n g C h i n a 's b o r d e r s , b u t l o o k a t t h e a g r e e me n t s
t h a t C h i n a ma k e s w i t h t h e C e n t r a l A s i a n r e p u b l i c s , w i t h R u s s i a , t h e
CBMs it reaches with India, even to a certain extent its handling of the
S o u t h C h i n a S e a . I t r e l i e s mo r e o n i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w , n o t c e d i n g
sovereign rights, but uses a different way of securing those sovereign
rights.
On jurisdictional sovereignty, the relationship to Tibet, Taiwan,
X i n j i a n g a n d H o n g K o n g , t h e r e 's a mo me n t i n t h e e a r l y '8 0 s , I t h i n k ,
w h e r e C h i n a 's p o s i t i o n i s a l i t t l e b i t mo r e f l e x i b l e , b e g i n n i n g a s o r t o f
t a l k o f t a l k s w i t h t h e D a l a i L a ma a n d e v e n w i t h t h e K M T o n T a i w a n .
- 6 -
 O v e r t h e c o u r s e o f t h e '9 0 s , t h a t p o l i c y f a l l s a p a r t a s C h i n a f e e l s
i t 's b e i n g t o o d i r e c t l y c h a l l e n g e d , a n d a c t u a l l y t h e p o s i t i o n , I t h i n k ,
b e c o me s mo r e i n t r a n s i g e n t o v e r t i me i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h o s e r e g i o n s .
O n s o v e r e i g n a u t h o r i t y , w h i l e C h i n a 's h u ma n r i g h t s r e c o r d s t i l l
l e a v e s a l o t t o b e d e s i r e d o b v i o u s l y , o n e s h o u l d n 't o v e r l o o k t h e f a c t
t h a t C h i n a i s n o w p a r t o f t h e s y s t e m. I t h a s s i g n e d o n t o a l l o f t h e
ma j o r mu l t i l a t e r a l h u ma n r i g h t s t r e a t i e s , h a s a l l o w e d f o r a l i mi t e d
n u mb e r o f b i l a t e r a l a n d mu l t i l a t e r a l d e l e g a t i o n s t o c o me i n t o C h i n a t o
l o o k a t h u ma n r i g h t s c o n d i t i o n s . A n d I t h i n k t h a t t h i s d o e s n 't
n e c e s s a r i l y me a n t h a t C h i n a n o w h a s a s t r o n g h u ma n r i g h t s r e c o r d , b u t
it's better than it was in the past.
F o u r t h , o n e c o n o mi c s o v e r e i g n t y , a n d t h i s i s w h e r e c h a n g e h a s
b e e n e n o r mo u s , i n t h e p r o c e s s o f g a i n i n g a d mi s s i o n o r t r y i n g t o g e t
i n t o G A T T a n d f i n a l l y g e t t i n g i n t o t h e WT O , C h i n a h a s r e a l l y a c c e p t e d
t h e d i mi n u t i o n o f i t s s o v e r e i g n r i g h t s . N i c k L a r d y h a s t a l k e d a b o u t
t h i s b e i n g " WT O - p l u s " s o r t o f o b l i g a t i o n s .
Out of all of this, I think what we look at is the fact that China
h a s c o mp r o mi s e d , i s r e l a t i v e l y p r a g ma t i c o n s o v e r e i g n r i g h t s , h a s
c o me o u t o f a h i s t o r y i n w h i c h s o v e r e i g n t y i s s e e n a s a h a r d - w o n ,
s o me t h i n g w h i c h i s t o b e v a l u e d i n a n d o f i t s e l f , b u t c a n b e n e g o t i a t e d
on when the right incentives exist.
T h o s e i n c e n t i v e s l a r g e l y c o me f r o m i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r e s s u r e .
Wh e n t h e p r e s s u r e i s t o o s t r o n g , t h e r e i s a b a c k l a s h , b u t i f i t ' s
c a l i b r a t e d , i f t h e r e ' s a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n s e n s u s w h e n i t c o me s t o
t h i n g s l i k e h u ma n r i g h t s o r o n WT O i s s u e s , C h i n a i s w i l l i n g t o mo v e
f o r w a r d , a n d I t h i n k t h a t y o u 'l l s e e t h e s a me d y n a mi c l o o k i n g t o s o me
o f t h e s p e c i f i c i s s u e s t h a t a r e b e i n g d e a l t w i t h b y t h e C o mmi s s i o n
t o d a y . T h e d i f f i c u l t y b e i n g t h a t t h e r e i s n 't a c o n s e n s u s i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l
p o l i t i c s t o d a y a b o u t , f o r e x a mp l e , t h e a r ms r a c e i n s p a c e o r a b o u t
Internet controls.
I think China will be a player in trying to define how
sovereignty extends into these new issue areas, and I would hope that
A me r i c a ma y t a k e a r o l e i n h e l p i n g t o s h a p e C h i n a 's v i s i o n o r w h a t
these roles will be. However, this will not be an easy process; it will
p r o b a b l y b e q u i t e t e n u o u s a n d a t t i me s c o n t e n t i o u s . B u t w e s h o u l d n 't
b e g i n f r o m s e e i n g C h i n a a s h a v i n g s o me s o r t o f a n e x t r e me p o s i t i o n o n
t h i s s e t o f r i g h t s . R a t h e r , i t 's o n e t h a t 's c h a n g e d a n d a g a i n i s n 't t h a t
far out of sync with the positions that other players in international
politics have taken.
I w e n t a l i t t l e b i t o v e r b u t n o t mu c h . T h a n k y o u . 1

1
Click here to read the prepared statement of Dr. Allen R. Carlson
- 7 -
 STATEMENT OF DR. JUNE TEUFEL DREYER

PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
ADMINISTRATION, CORAL GABLES, FLORIDA

DR. DREYER: I envy Dr. Carlson who can take two hours to
t a l k t o h i s s t u d e n t s . I 'v e n o t i c e d t h a t a s s o o n a s t h e t i me r u n s o u t o n
my c l a s s , t h e k i d s a r e a l r e a d y p i c k i n g u p t h e i r b o o k s a n d o n t h e i r w a y
o u t o f t h e c l a s s r o o m. A s a f o o t n o t e : D r . C a r l s o n me n t i o n e d Wa n g
Jisi, and I just want to second the opinion. This is a very
knowledgeable, very thoughtful individual. Obviously he does not
step far outside the party line, but he was educated, I believe, at the
U n i v e r s i t y o f T e x a s a n d t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n , a mo n g o t h e r
places, and he knows us well as well as being a very bright guy.
T o t a l k a b o u t C h i n e s e a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d s s o v e r e i g n t y , t o me i t 's
a l w a y s b e e n e x t r e me l y i r o n i c t h a t t h e C h i n e s e e mp i r e d i d n o t a c c e p t
the concept of sovereignty. It believed it ruled all under heaven, and
other political entities presented tribute and were rewarded
c o n c o mi t a n t l y .
I a m r e mi n i s c i n g a b o u t w h e n I w a s a s t u d e n t , a n d my p r o f e s s o r ,
who was an older Chinese fellow with coke-bottle thick glasses and a
perpetually very puzzled expression, was telling us that the way the
Chinese dealt with "all others" who were not considered civilized was
b y b u y i n g t h e m o f f s o t h e y d i d n 't a t t a c k C h i n a . We i n t h e c l a s s
t h o u g h t t h i s w a s e x t r e me l y a mu s i n g , w h e r e u p o n P r o f e s s o r Y o n g l o o k e d
e v e n mo r e p u z z l e d t h a n u s u a l , a n d s a i d “ I d o n 't u n d e r s t a n d w h y y o u a l l
a r e l a u g h i n g b e c a u s e i s n 't t h a t w h a t A me r i c a n f o r e i g n p o l i c y a n d
f o r e i g n a i d a r e a l l a b o u t ? A n d I t h o u g h t , “ y o u k n o w , h e 's r i g h t . ”
In any case, Mao Zedong was not going to accept this. He had a
very hard-line absolutist policy on sovereignty, and this is enshrined
in the so-called Pancha Shila, the five principles of peaceful
c o e x i s t e n c e w h i c h a c t u a l l y c o me o u t f i r s t i n t h e S i n o - I n d i a n T r e a t y o f
1954.
Y o u c a n s e e t h i s i mp l i c i t h a r d - l i n e p o s i t i o n o n a b s o l u t e
s o v e r e i g n t y : mu t u a l r e s p e c t f o r e a c h o t h e r ' s t e r r i t o r i a l s o v e r e i g n t y a n d
i n t e g r i t y ; mu t u a l n o n a g g r e s s i o n ; mu t u a l n o n i n t e r f e r e n c e i n e a c h
o t h e r ' s i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s ; e q u a l i t y a n d mu t u a l b e n e f i t ; a n d p e a c e f u l
coexistence.
C h i n e s e p u b l i c s t a t e me n t s e v e r s i n c e t h e n h a v e u p h e l d t h i s
p r i n c i p l e o f a b s o l u t e s o v e r e i g n t y . T h e r e 's a q u o t e i n t h e p a p e r h e r e
which is very typical. T h i s i s J i a n g Z e mi n t o t h e p r e s i d e n t o f
Argentina: China "never gives in to any outside pressure on principles
related to China's state sovereignty and territorial integrity."
F r e q u e n t l y , t h i s i s j u s t i f i e d i n r e f e r e n c e t o C h i n a 's " c e n t u r y o f
h u mi l i a t i o n " b y w e s t e r n p o w e r s a n d J a p a n .
- 8 -
 T h i s v e r y s t r o n g d e f e n s e o f s o v e r e i g n t y o c c u r s a t a t i me w h e n
s e n t i me n t a mo n g w e s t e r n p o w e r s , w h i c h a f t e r a l l c a me u p w i t h t h e
c o n c e p t o f s o v e r e i g n t y a n d e n s h r i n e d i t i n t h e T r e a t y o f We s t p h a l i a o f
1 6 4 8 , i s e r o d i n g . T h e r e i s mo r e a n d mo r e t a l k t h a t a s y s t e m w h i c h w a s
w o n d e r f u l f o r 1 6 4 8 i n s e t t l i n g t h e T h i r t y Y e a r s Wa r a mo n g a r e l a t i v e l y
l i mi t e d n u mb e r o f s t a t e s i s n o t s u i t a b l e f o r t o d a y 's w o r l d i n w h i c h w e
h a v e a p p r o x i ma t e l y 2 0 0 s t a t e s a n d i n w h i c h , a t l e a s t i n t h e o r y , t h e r e i s
i n c r e a s i n g e c o n o mi c i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e a c r o s s s t a t e b o r d e r s .
I n t h e d e c a d e a f t e r D e n g X i a o p i n g c a me t o p o w e r , a p p r o x i ma t e l y
1978, (he was re-re-rehabilitated in July 1977), he vowed to open
China, speed it toward industrialization and prosperity, open it to the
outside world. There were certain indications that China was
beginning to accept the doctrine which is known as "perforated
s o v e r e i g n t y . " I t 's n o t a t e r m I l i k e , b u t i t 's a s t a n d a r d t e r m.
E v i d e n c e a d d u c e d i n s u p p o r t o f t h a t i s C h i n a 's w i l l i n g n e s s t o
a c c e p t a l e s s t h a n a b s o l u t e s o v e r e i g n a r r a n g e me n t f o r t h e r e t u r n o f
Hong Kong to Chinese rule, for its willingness to go into court to
s e t t l e a n a n c i e n t d i s p u t e r e g a r d i n g I mp e r i a l e r a b o n d s , t h e H u g u a n g
R a i l w a y b o n d s c a s e , a n d i n t h e f a c t t h a t i t 's w i l l i n g t o e n t e r
negotiations for the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
This changed after 1989.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: J u n e , ma y I i n t e r r u p t f o r
Senator Nelson?
DR. DREYER: Certainly.
S E N A T O R N E L S O N : P l e a s e e x c u s e me .
DR. DREYER: My fellow Floridian.
S E N A T O R N E L S O N : G o o d mo r n i n g .

PANEL I: CONGRESSIONAL PERSPECTIVES

H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : G o o d mo r n i n g . We a r e p l e a s e d
to hear from Senator Bill Nelson of Florida. Senator Nelson was first
elected to the United States Senate in 2000, a life-long Floridian. He
h a s p r e v i o u s l y s e r v e d s i x y e a r s a s a me mb e r o f t h e F l o r i d a s t a t e
c a b i n e t , 1 2 y e a r s a s a c o n g r e s s ma n .
Senator Nelson is an expert on NASA, who after intensive
t r a i n i n g s p e n t s i x d a y s o n t h e s p a c e s h u t t l e C o l u mb i a i n 1 9 8 6 . We 'r e
a l l s t i l l d e e p l y e n v i o u s o f h i s e x p e r i e n c e . H e b e c a me t h e s e c o n d -
s i t t i n g me mb e r o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s C o n g r e s s t o f l y i n s p a c e a n d i s
c u r r e n t l y t h e o n l y s i t t i n g me mb e r t o h a v e f l o w n .
S e n a t o r N e l s o n c u r r e n t l y s e r v e s o n t h e A r me d S e r v i c e s
C o mmi t t e e , t h e F o r e i g n R e l a t i o n s C o mmi t t e e , t h e I n t e l l i g e n c e
C o mmi t t e e , t h e B u d g e t C o mmi t t e e , a n d t h e C o mmi t t e e o n A g i n g .
Senator Nelson, we are pleased to hear your views today.
- 9 -
 STATEMENT OF BILL NELSON
A U.S. SENATOR FROM THE STATE OF FLORIDA

S E N A T O R N E L S O N : T h a n k y o u , M r . C h a i r ma n , a n d t h a n k y o u
a l l f o r t h e w o r k t h a t y o u 'r e d o i n g t o t r y t o p r o t e c t c r i t i c a l A me r i c a n
c o mp u t e r n e t w o r k s f r o m t h e h a c k i n g a n d t h e c y b e r a t t a c k s .
Wh a t w e s e e h a p p e n i n g w i t h C h i n a v i s - à - v i s t h e i r i n t r u s i o n i n t o
A me r i c a d o e s n 't s u r p r i s e me . I t w a s a b o u t a l mo s t 2 0 y e a r s a g o t h a t a s
a y o u n g me mb e r o f t h e H o u s e o f R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , I t r i e d t o g e t t h e
R e a g a n a d mi n i s t r a t i o n t h a t w a s h e l l b e n t o n a p p r o v i n g A me r i c a n
satellites to be integrated on top of Chinese rockets, that I warned
them there was going to be technology transfer, and at the insistence
o f t h e A me r i c a n s a t e l l i t e ma n u f a c t u r e r s w h i c h w a n t e d a l l t h e mo r e t o
d o b u s i n e s s b y s e l l i n g mo r e s a t e l l i t e s f o r a d i f f e r e n t l a u n c h e r , t h e r e
w a s j u s t n o l i s t e n i n g i n t h e D e p a r t me n t o f D e f e n s e o f C a s p e r
We i n b e r g e r o r t h e D e p a r t me n t o f C o mme r c e o f t h e R e a g a n
a d mi n i s t r a t i o n .
A n d s u r e e n o u g h , t h a t 's e x a c t l y w h a t h a p p e n e d . A lot of
technology transfer even though there were all the protestations and
hand-wringing about how they could keep a firewall and there would
not be the transfer of that technology.
Just two weeks ago, four people were arrested in two separate
spying cases in the U.S. They were accused of spying for China as it
i s n o w a c q u i r i n g mo r e a n d mo r e o f o u r t r a d e a n d c l a s s i f i e d s e c r e t s
i n c l u d i n g s o me o f o u r r o c k e t d e s i g n s a n d t h e t e c h n o l o g y t h a t t h e y w e r e
getting about our space shuttle.
F o r t h a t ma t t e r , t h e S o v i e t s d i d t h a t t o o . T h e S o v i e t s b u i l t a n
a l mo s t e x a c t r e p l i c a o f t h e s p a c e s h u t t l e , c a l l e d B u r a n , a n d t r a i n e d a
w h o l e c a d r e o f c o s mo n a u t s t o f l y i t a n d f l e w i t o n c e b u t w i t h o u t
c o s mo n a u t s , a n d t h e n s a w t h a t t h e t r a d e o f f s o f t h e e x p e n s e w e r e t o o
g r e a t s i n c e t h e y h a d s u c h t r e me n d o u s s u c c e s s , a n d s t i l l d o , w i t h t h e i r
Soyuz spacecraft.
C l e a r l y , i t ' s a t r u t h t h a t t h e A me r i c a n p o l i c y o f p r o t e c t i o n
d e p e n d s a l o t o n o u r s p a c e a s s e t s i n c l u d i n g s o me t h a t a r e n o t c l a s s i f i e d
s u c h a s t h e G P S , t h e G l o b a l P o s i t i o n i n g S y s t e m, c o mmu n i c a t i o n
s a t e l l i t e s t h a t a r e n o t c l a s s i f i e d , a n d y e t o u r o w n J u s t i c e D e p a r t me n t
s a y s t h e r e c e n t s p y i n g c a s e s a r e o n l y t h e l a t e s t ma r k i n C h i n a 's
o n g o i n g " a d e p t a n d d e t e r mi n e d , " - - a n d t h a t 's t h e i r w o r d s - - J u s t i c e
D e p a r t me n t - - " a d e p t a n d d e t e r mi n e d " a t t e mp t s t o g a i n t o p s e c r e t
i n f o r ma t i o n a b o u t o u r mi l i t a r y a n d a b o u t o u r p r o t e c t i o n .
O n e A s s i s t a n t A t t o r n e y G e n e r a l , K e n Wa i n s t e i n , s a i d i t 's n o t j u s t
a t h r e a t t o " o u r n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y [ b u t a l s o ] o u r e c o n o mi c p o s i t i o n i n
the world"--end of quote.
- 10 -
 We l l , w e h a v e a d i f f e r e n t e t h i c i n w h i c h w e o p e r a t e u n d e r t h e
rule of law over here, and we have the constitutional protections, and
o n e o f t h e a me n d me n t s t o o u r C o n s t i t u t i o n s a y s t h e r i g h t o f t h e p e o p l e
to be secure in their persons, houses, papers and effects against
unreasonable searches and seizures shall not be violated.
T h a t 's t o p r o t e c t u s f r o m t h e i n t r u s i o n o f o u r o w n g o v e r n me n t i n
o u r l i v e s . A n d y e t t h a t 's w h a t 's h a p p e n i n g w i t h t h e C h i n e s e i n t r u d i n g
into our own lives right now and they are everywhere.
M o n d a y mo r n i n g , t h e r e w a s a n o t h e r n e w s i t e m. I t w a s t h a t i n a n
e f f o r t t o l i mi t i t s c i t i z e n s ' a c c e s s t o Y o u T u b e , t h e g o v e r n me n t o f
P a k i s t a n a c c i d e n t a l l y p r e v e n t e d t w o - t h i r d s o f t h e w o r l d 's I n t e r n e t
u s e r s f r o m r e a c h i n g Y o u T u b e , a n d t h a t i n c i d e n t ma y h a v e b e e n a n
a c c i d e n t , b u t i t h i g h l i g h t e d h o w a f o r e i g n g o v e r n me n t , i n t h i s c a s e ,
Pakistan, and you could substitute foreign spies, could wreck havoc on
w h a t i s n o w a g l o b a l l y c o n n e c t e d i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y o f
countries.
A n d n o w A me r i c a 's r e l i a n c e o n o u r I n t e r n e t h a s g r o w n s o
e x p o n e n t i a l l y t h a t e v e r y t h i n g , g o v e r n me n t , mi l i t a r y , f i n a n c i a l
i n s t i t u t i o n s , s u b w a y s , u t i l i t y c o mp a n i e s , a l l r e l y o n t h i s u n f e t t e r e d
access to the Internet.
So a catastrophic collapse of the Internet, particularly if it
resulted from a coordinated attack, could cripple not only our
g o v e r n me n t b u t o u r e c o n o my a s w e l l .
I n t h e o p e n s e s s i o n b e f o r e t h e S e n a t e I n t e l l i g e n c e C o mmi t t e e
e a r l i e r , a b o u t a mo n t h a g o , t h e D N I w a r n e d t h a t C h i n a h a s , q u o t e , " t h e
t e c h n i c a l c a p a b i l i t i e s t o t a r g e t a n d d i s r u p t e l e me n t s o f t h e U . S .
i n f o r ma t i o n i n f r a s t r u c t u r e " - - e n d o f q u o t e .
J u s t l a s t D e c e mb e r , i t w a s r e p o r t e d t h a t C h i n e s e h a c k e r s h a d
launched a, quote, "sophisticated cyber attack on the Oak Ridge
N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r y , " a n d t h e l a b o r a t o r y 's d i r e c t o r s a i d t h a t t h a t a t t a c k
w h i c h l a s t e d s e v e r a l w e e k s w a s a n a t t e mp t t o g a i n a c c e s s t o t h e
c o mp u t e r n e t w o r k s a t n u me r o u s l a b o r a t o r i e s a n d n u me r o u s i n s t i t u t i o n s
across the country.
T h e s e i n c i d e n t s ma y h a v e c o n t r i b u t e d t o a c o l l a p s e l a s t w e e k o f
a p r o p o s e d , o v e r $ 2 b i l l i o n , me r g e r b e t w e e n 3 C o m a n d a C h i n e s e
t e c h n o l o g y f i r m t h a t w a s f o u n d e d b y a f o r me r mi l i t a r y o f f i c e r . N o w ,
a f t e r a b u n c h o f u s h a v e e x p r e s s e d c o n c e r n o v e r t h e me r g e r 's
i mp l i c a t i o n s f o r U . S . c y b e r s e c u r i t y , t h e C o mmi t t e e o n F o r e i g n
I n v e s t me n t i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s r e f u s e d t o a p p r o v e i t s t e r ms .
So we best start getting concerned and serious about cyber
s e c u r i t y , a n d i t 's g o i n g t o r e q u i r e b i l l i o n s o f d o l l a r s a n d i t 's g o i n g t o
r e q u i r e e x t r a o r d i n a r y i n t e r a g e n c y c o o r d i n a t i o n . A me r i c a i s c l e a r l y
g o i n g t o h a v e t o e x e r t s o me l e a d e r s h i p t o p r e v e n t C h i n a a n d o t h e r
nations from irresponsible actions, not only in cyberspace but outer
- 11 -
s p a c e , a n d y o u k n o w w h a t I 'm t a l k i n g a b o u t .
H o w ma n y s p e e c h e s h a v e I ma d e o n t h e f l o o r o f t h e S e n a t e , a n d I
h e a r a d e a f e n i n g s i l e n c e ? H o w ma n y t i me s h a v e I r a i l e d i n t h e S p a c e
S u b c o mmi t t e e a b o u t t h e t h o u s a n d s a n d t h o u s a n d s o f p i e c e s o f d e b r i s
t h a t a r e u p t h e r e a t a b o u t 4 0 0 mi l e s h i g h t h a t t h r e a t e n a l l t h e n a t i o n s
o f t h e w o r l d 's s p a c e a s s e t s b e c a u s e C h i n a l a u n c h e d a n a n t i - s a t e l l i t e
weapon with clear warning to all the nations of the world, so that we
could see it?
It was one of their old weather satellites. They took it out.
T h e y b u s t e d i t t o s mi t h e r e e n s , a n d t h e r e 's t h o u s a n d s a n d t h o u s a n d s o f
pieces of debris.
People say, well, the U.S. has debris. Yes, we catalogue it, but
w e t r y n o t t o p u t a d d i t i o n a l d e b r i s . We l l , y o u s a y , w e l l , y o u j u s t
k n o c k e d d o w n a t u mb l i n g s a t e l l i t e . T h e y k n o c k e d t h a t d o w n f o r a
d i f f e r e n t r e a s o n , a n d o h , b y t h e w a y , i t w a s n 't u p a t 4 0 0 mi l e s ; i t w a s
a t 1 2 0 mi l e s . A n d t h o s e p i e c e s t h a t t h e y w a n t e d t o g e t o f t h a t 1 , 0 0 0
p o u n d h y d r a z i n e t a n k s o t h a t i t w o u l d n 't c o me b a c k t o e a r t h a n d h u r t
s o me b o d y , a n d t h e y w o u l d h a v e mo r e o f a c h a n c e t o g e t i t i n t o , a s i t
d e g r a d e s i n t h e a t mo s p h e r e , i n t o a s a f e r l a n d i n g , t h o s e p i e c e s w i l l b u r n
up because there are no big pieces.
B u t i t 's g o i n g t o t a k e d e c a d e s f o r t h e d e b r i s f r o m t h e C h i n e s e
A S A T t e s t t o c o me d o w n . I n t h e me a n t i me l o o k a t a l l t h e s p a c e a s s e t s
t h a t a r e a t r i s k . A n d s o a s mo r e a n d mo r e n a t i o n s h a v e t h e i r o w n s p a c e
v e n t u r e s , i t u n d e r s c o r e s a l l t h e mo r e t h e n e e d f o r s p a c e f a r i n g n a t i o n s ,
f o r t h e s e n a t i o n s t o s t a r t t o h a v e s o me r u l e s o f t h e r o a d i n s p a c e .
T h i s d o e s n 't h a v e t o b e s o me h u g e g a r g a n t u a n a g r e e me n t , t h e
kind that have bogged down in the past, but about focused efforts to
d e a l w i t h t h e r e a l c h a l l e n g e o f t h e u s e o f s p a c e . We n e e d t o b e t t e r
d e f i n e a n d t r y t o p r o mo t e g o o d b e h a v i o r i n s p a c e a n d d i s c o u r a g e t h e
irresponsible and threatening behavior.
T h e r e a r e e s t i ma t e d , a n d t h i s i s p u b l i c i n f o r ma t i o n , s o me 1 4 0
mi l l i o n p i e c e s o f d e b r i s t h a t s w i r l a b o u t t h e p l a n e t i n l o w e a r t h o r b i t .
S o me o f i t i s s t u f f l i k e d e a d s a t e l l i t e s . O t h e r s a r e j u s t n u t s a n d b o l t s .
I 'l l n e v e r f o r g e t l o o k i n g o u t t h e w i n d o w o f t h e s p a c e s h u t t l e , a n d
t h e r e 's a w a s h e r t h a t 's f l o a t i n g r i g h t a l o n g w i t h u s , a t 1 7 , 5 0 0 mi l e s a n
hour.
S o me d e b r i s u p t h e r e i s n a t u r a l . NASA and the Air Force
identify and track the larger pieces, but the bulk of the debris is too
s ma l l t o t r a c k a n d s o me t h i n g a s l i t t l e a s a p a i n t c h i p a s w e s a w w h e n i t
hit the window of the space shuttle can cause a serious crack.
S o w i t h t h e i r t e s t s , t h e C h i n e s e a d d e d a c o u p l e mi l l i o n p i e c e s o f
s p a c e j u n k i n l o w e a r t h o r b i t p o t e n t i a l l y j e o p a r d i z i n g ma n y o f t h e
spacefaring nations of the world.
S o , M r . C h a i r ma n , I k i n d o f g i v e y o u a s o b e r i n g p i c t u r e o f a s w e
- 12 -
d e a l w i t h C h i n a . Y o u 'r e l o o k i n g a t s o me o n e t h a t h a s r e a c h e d o u t t o
the Chinese. I invited their taikonaut, who is a real hero just like
G a g a r i n w a s i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , t o c o me o v e r h e r e a n d , l o a n d
b e h o l d , t h e d a y t h a t t h e C h i n e s e A mb a s s a d o r b r o u g h t h i m t o my o f f i c e
a n d w e s t a r t e d h a v i n g a w o n d e r f u l me e t i n g , w h o e n d s u p i n t h e o f f i c e
u n e x p e c t e d l y b u t t h e s e c o n d ma n o n t h e mo o n , B u z z A l d r i n .
S o I i n t r o d u c e d h i m t o t h e t a i k o n a u t , a n d i t w a s a l l t h e mo r e o f a
g o o d e x p e r i e n c e t h e r e . We h a v e t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y f o r g o o d e x p e r i e n c e s .
Now, that the Chinese are so sensitive about their stature in the world
w i t h t h e u p c o mi n g O l y mp i c s , w e h a v e a l l t h e mo r e o p p o r t u n i t y , a n d I
a m a n o p t i mi s t , b u t y o u b e t t e r b e a r e a l i s t i c o p t i mi s t w i t h w h a t w e a r e
d e a l i n g w i t h , a n d I b e l i e v e ma n y o f y o u r C o mmi s s i o n 's
r e c o mme n d a t i o n s t a k e t h e r i g h t a p p r o a c h t h a t p r o t e c t o u r i n t e r e s t f i r s t
a n d f o r e mo s t , a n d I w a n t t o t h a n k y o u f o r t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o c o me
here.
I 'm g o i n g t o h a v e t o e x c u s e my s e l f . I t 's o n e o f t h o s e d a y s t h a t
I 'm s u p p o s e d t o b e i n t h r e e p l a c e s a t o n c e , a n d I a p o l o g i z e f o r b e i n g
late, and thank you, Dr. Dreyer, for the courtesy that I could step in
a n d ma k e s o me c o mme n t s .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: We q u i t e a p p r e c i a t e i t ,
Senator. Thank you.
S E N A T O R N E L S O N : T h a n k y o u , M r . C h a i r ma n . T h a n k y o u .

PANEL II: CONTINUED

DR. DREYER: May I start again?

H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : We h a v e t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r y o u
t o r e c o u p s o w e 'l l g i v e y o u s o me a d d i t i o n a l t i me .
DR. DREYER: I was saying that this apparent evolution toward
a mo r e o r l e s s a b s o l u t e v e r s i o n o f s o v e r e i g n t y w a s s h a t t e r e d b y
T i a n a n me n , a n d i t 's i mp o r t a n t t o r e me mb e r t h a t t h e s e d e mo n s t r a t i o n s
w e r e p u t d o w n n o t j u s t i n T i a n a n me n S q u a r e b u t i n a h u n d r e d o t h e r
c i t i e s i n C h i n a a t t h e s a me t i me . Wh a t w e c a l l t h e T i a n a n me n i n c i d e n t
w a s a l a r g e n u mb e r o f ma s s d e mo n s t r a t i o n s .
Chinese policy then reverted to an absolute hardlinism because
t h e l e a d e r s h i p s a w i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r f e r e n c e i n C h i n a ’ s d o me s t i c
affairs. T h e l e a d e r s h i p ’ s r e a c t i o n t o “ h o w d a r e y o u ma s s a c r e
c i v i l i a n s ” w a s , “ w e l l , h o w d a r e y o u s a y w e c a n 't i f t h a t 's w h a t w e f e e l
w e mu s t d o " k i n d o f t h i n g .
T h e f l a w i n t h e a r g u me n t t h a t C h i n a b r o o k s n o i n t e r f e r e n c e i n i t s
d o me s t i c a f f a i r s , b u t i t i s w i l l i n g t o c o mp r o mi s e o n i n t e r n a t i o n a l
a f f a i r s , i s t h a t t h e r e 's l e a k a g e b e t w e e n t h e t w o s p h e r e s . I n o t h e r
w o r d s , t h i s i s n 't i n my p a p e r - - w h a t t h e y w i l l d o i s s e e a l i n k a g e
b e t w e e n s o me i n t e r n a t i o n a l e v e n t a n d s o me d o me s t i c s p i n - o f f t h a t t h e y
- 13 -
need to worry about.
A n e x a mp l e i s C h i n a ’ s t r e me n d o u s r e l u c t a n c e t o , i n f a c t i t ’ s
threatening to veto the United Nations' initiative to get Iraq to
disgorge Kosovo. The Chinese say this is unwarranted interference in
t h e d o me s t i c a f f a i r s o f I r a q . Wh e n p e o p l e s a i d “ b u t K u w a i t i s a
recognized sovereign state [whose territorial integrity Iraq had
v i o l a t e d ] ” t h e i r a n s w e r w a s , t h i s i s a ma t t e r o f r e c o r d , i s “ t w o w r o n g s
d o n 't ma k e a r i g h t ” . C l e a r l y w h a t t h e y 'r e s e e i n g h e r e i s s o me e f f o r t ,
s o me s p i n - o f f w i t h r e g a r d t o T a i w a n o r T i b e t o r X i n j i a n g , a n d t h e y g o t
mo r e s t r i d e n t a b o u t t h a t w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e N A T O i n i t i a t i v e i n K o s o v o
because Kosovo was not a recognized sovereign state.
So, yes, they are willing to negotiate. They will occasionally
c o mp r o mi s e b u t n o t o n a p r i n c i p l e , b u t o n a g i v e n i s s u e , w i t h o u t
s a c r i f i c i n g t h e p r i n c i p l e b e h i n d i t . O n e e x a mp l e i s i n F e b r u a r y 1 9 9 2 ,
w h e n t h e N a t i o n a l P e o p l e 's C o n g r e s s p a s s e d a u n i l a t e r a l l a w a n n e x i n g
all kinds of disputed territories. T h e J a p a n e s e g o v e r n me n t g o t
e x t r e me l y u p s e t b e c a u s e s o me o f t h o s e a r e t e r r i t o r i e s t h a t a r e , i n f a c t ,
n o t j u s t c l a i me d b u t a c t u a l l y a d mi n i s t e r e d b y t h e J a p a n e s e .
The Japanese Foreign Ministry said, “well, you know, this really
p l a y s i n t o t h e h a n d s o f o u r h a r d l i n e r s , a n d f u r t h e r mo r e i t c o u l d
j e o p a r d i z e t h e v i s i t o f t h e E mp e r o r a n d t h e E mp r e s s t o C h i n a , ”
k n o w i n g o f c o u r s e t h a t t h e C h i n e s e w a n t e d v e r y mu c h f o r t h e E mp e r o r
a n d t h e E mp r e s s t o c o me v i s i t .
S o t h e C h i n e s e F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y i s s u e d a s t a t e me n t s a y i n g t h a t
t h i s l a w d i d n ’ t c h a n g e o u r p r e v i o u s p o l i c y . T h e v i s i t o f t h e E mp e r o r
a n d t h e E mp r e s s t o o k p l a c e , b u t t h e l a w r e ma i n s : t h e C h i n e s e h a v e n o t
backed away from the principle, and the Japanese are still suffering
w i t h s u b ma r i n e s a n d s o o n , a p p e a r i n g i n w a t e r s t h a t t h e y c l a i m a r e
theirs.
S o I w o u l d s a y t h a t t h e s e a r e c e r t a i n c o mp r o mi s e s t h a t a r e
tactical, but they are definitely not strategic.
There is a lot of talk about the International Law of the Sea.
H e r e C h i n a h a s a c c e p t e d c e r t a i n , I e mp h a s i z e c e r t a i n c o mp r o mi s e s , b u t
again you find that they do not sacrifice the principle, and we have
been arguing with them about our different interpretations on the Law
o f t h e S e a f o r a l o n g t i me . F o r o n e t h i n g , t h e y p r o d u c e d a n e x c e p t i o n
right after they signed it, and they say that our warships and anybody
else’s warships do not have the right to transit their waters without
t h e i r p r i o r p e r mi s s i o n .
The United States and other countries' positions is that there is
n o t h i n g i n t h e L a w o f t h e S e a t h a t p r e v e n t s t h a t . We d o n o t n e e d t o
s e e k p e r mi s s i o n a s l o n g a s w e a r e n o t t h e r e f o r e c o n o mi c e x p l o i t a t i o n .
S o a g a i n t h e y h a v e n o t c o mp r o mi s e d o n p r i n c i p l e t h e r e . T h e r e h a s
b e e n a t a c t i c a l c o mp r o mi s e w h i c h i s n o t a c o mp r o mi s e o n p r i n c i p l e .
- 14 -
 I n f o r ma t i o n t e c h n o l o g y , c y b e r s p a c e , t h e C h i n e s e h a v e a t t e mp t e d ,
s o f a r w i t h o u t c o mp l e t e s u c c e s s , t o i mp o s e w h a t w e mi g h t c a l l
i n f o r ma t i o n s o v e r e i g n t y . I n t h e s e n s e o f s a y i n g , i n e s s e n c e , t h a t
t h e r e 's a w a l l b e t w e e n C h i n a ’ s c y b e r s p a c e a n d y o u r a n d e v e r y b o d y
e l s e 's c y b e r s p a c e .
I f y o u w o u l d j u s t a l l o w me a f e w s e c o n d s t o a d d r e s s t h a t
q u e s t i o n o n d i f f e r e n c e s o f o p i n i o n a mo n g t h e C h i n e s e mi n i s t r i e s .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Okay.
D R . D R E Y E R : M o s t o f u s b e l i e v e t h a t t h e r e mu s t b e d i f f e r e n c e s
o f o p i n i o n a mo n g t h e d i f f e r e n t C h i n e s e p o l i c y c o mmu n i t i e s o n t h i s .
T h e p r o b l e m i s t h a t t h e e v i d e n c e i s v e r y h a r d t o c o me b y , a n d a n
e x a mp l e I g i v e i n t h e p a p e r i s t h a t , i f y o u r e a l l y l o o k c a r e f u l l y a t t h e
d i f f e r e n t s t a t e me n t s t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n t C h i n e s e e n t i t i e s w e r e i t e r a t i n g
a f t e r t h e c o l l i s i o n o f t h e A me r i c a n E P - 3 p l a n e a n d t h e C h i n e s e f i g h t e r
p l a n e , y o u w i l l b e a b l e t o a s c e r t a i n t h a t t h e s t a t e me n t s f r o m P e o p l e 's
Daily, which is the house organ of the Chinese Party Central
C o mmi t t e e , a n d t h o s e o f t h e C h i n e s e F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y t a k e a s o me w h a t
s o f t e r t o n e t h a n t h o s e c o mi n g o u t o f t h e P e o p l e 's L i b e r a t i o n A r my .
T h e p r o b l e m i s y o u d o n 't k n o w w h a t t h a t r e a l l y me a n s . D o e s
t h a t me a n a d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y a n d t h e p a r t y , o n
t h e o n e h a n d , a n d t h e mi l i t a r y o n t h e o t h e r ? O r a r e t h e y t r y i n g a g o o d
c o p / b a d c o p s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h t h e P e o p l e 's L i b e r a t i o n A r my i s t r y i n g
to assuage the already stoked up public opinion while the Foreign
M i n i s t r y i s l e a v i n g o p e n s o me l e e w a y fo r c o mp r o mi s e ? O r i s i t s o me
third factor we have not heard? Is there really a difference between
s o me P L A h a w k s a n d s o me F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y s o f t - l i n e r s ?
I w o u l d c o n c l u d e t h a t o n e r e a s o n f o r B e i j i n g 's c o n t i n u o u s h a r d
line on sovereignty could be a result of its leadership’s fear that after
this leadership has consciously stirred up feelings of nationalism in
the Chinese public, if they are then seen as being weak on the issue of
s o v e r e i g n t y , i t ma y d e s t r o y t h e i r l e g i t i ma c y a n d i n d u c e p u b l i c o p i n i o n
t o r i s e a g a i n s t t h e m.
A n o t h e r r e a s o n ma y b e t h a t t h e h a r d l i n e g e n e r a l l y w o r k s w i t h u s
as a negotiating technique. If our negotiators really buy into this idea
that China is a fragile superpower that the United States cannot allow
t o f a i l , i t ma y i n d u c e f e e l i n g s o f , w e l l , w e c a n 't p u s h t h e m t o o h a r d o n
this or they're going to disintegrate, and this could have a very bad
effect on our sovereignty. 2

P a n e l I I : D i s c u s s i o n , Q u e s t i o n s a n d A n s we r s

HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Thank you very mu c h .

2
Click here to read the prepared statement of Dr. June Teufel Dreyer
- 15 -
C o mmi s s i o n e r E s p e r , y o u w a n t t o s t a r t f i r s t ?
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you both for your
t e s t i mo n y . I t 's v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g . M y f i r s t q u e s t i o n i s f o r D r . C a r l s o n .
D r . C a r l s o n , y o u me n t i o n e d h o w C h i n a 's v i e w s o f s o v e r e i g n t y a r e
e v o l v i n g , i n t e g r a t i n g mo r e w i t h t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y .
The question I have is this: D o y o u s e e t h a t mo r e a s a
f u n d a me n t a l c h a n g e i n t h e i r v i e w o f s o v e r e i g n t y o r a t a c t i c a l a p p r o a c h
t h a t d i f f e r e n t i a t e s C h i n a i n t e r ms o f s i g n i n g o n t o a t r e a t y a n d a c t u a l l y
i mp l e me n t i n g i t ? B o t h o f y o u me n t i o n e d t h e L a w o f t h e S e a T r e a t y ,
w h i c h i s a c a s e i n p o i n t w h e r e w e s e e e x a mp l e s o f , i n d e e d , C h i n a
signing on to the treaty, but, in practice and interpretation Beijing
takes different views.
So is it an actual evolution in their strategic thinking or in their
philosophy with regard to sovereignty?
D R . C A R L S O N : S u r e . I t h i n k t h a t 's a g r e a t q u e s t i o n . A n d I
think that it varies from issue area to issue area. Again, sovereignty is
a p r e t t y n e b u l o u s t e r m. P e r h a p s w e c a n a l l a g r e e o n t h a t , a n d i t o n l y
t a k e s o n me a n i n g w h e n w e l o o k mo r e s p e c i f i c a l l y n o t j u s t a t w h a t
s t a t e s a r e s a y i n g b u t w h a t t h e y 'r e d o i n g a s w e l l .
I b e l i e v e t h a t c o mmi t t i n g t o a t r e a t y i s a s i g n i f i c a n t a c t i o n , a n d
s o i n t h i s r e g a r d , f o r e x a mp l e , t h e o b l i g a t i o n s t h a t C h i n a t a k e s o n w i t h
WT O r e p r e s e n t a f a i r l y f u n d a me n t a l s h i f t i n C h i n a 's a p p r o a c h t o
e c o n o mi c i s s u e s , a n d o n c o mp l i a n c e , t h e r e c o r d h a s b e e n mi x e d , b u t I
t h i n k t h a t t h e y ' r e t r y i n g ; r i g h t ? I me a n t h e y d i d n ’ t s i g n o n w i t h n o
intention whatsoever of following through.
I n o t h e r i s s u e a r e a s , f o r e x a mp l e , i n r e g a r d s t o h u ma n r i g h t s ,
t h e r e i t ma y b e mo r e t a c t i c a l . B u t l e t 's n o t f o r g e t w h e n w e l o o k a t
Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, initial tactical concessions ended
up kind of catching up to the state, thinking about the Helsinki
Accords and elsewhere.
S o o n t h a t s i d e o f t h i n g s , i t 's b e s t t o t a k e a l o n g e r t i me f r a me ,
ma y b e o v e r 2 0 , 3 0 y e a r s , a n d , i n a d d i t i o n , i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l
i n t e r v e n t i o n s , mu l t i l a t e r a l i n v e n t i o n s , J u n e c o r r e c t l y t a l k e d a b o u t t h e
Chinese response to Kosovo.
I t 's a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t t o n o t e o n l y a f e w mo n t h s l a t e r , C h i n a w a s
o n b o a r d w i t h w h a t w a s g o i n g o n i n E a s t T i mo r , s o t h e r e 's a d e g r e e o f
p r a g ma t i s m h e r e , a n d a l o t i s s e t t l e d i n a n d t h e t o a n d f r o o f
d i p l o ma t i c e x c h a n g e s , a n d t h a t 's w h y A me r i c a c a n h a v e a r o l e h e r e .
Wh e n w e p r e s s t o o h a r d - - i t 's w i t h o u t c a l i b r a t i n g t h e a mo u n t o f
pressure--when we press too hard or if it's on too central of a security
i s s u e , f o r e x a mp l e , T a i w a n , t h e r e 's l i k e l y t o b e b l o w b a c k , a n d t h e
C h i n e s e p o s i t i o n b e c o me s mo r e i n t r a n s i g e n t .
Wh e n i t 's t h e U . S . a c t i n g i n c o n c e r t w i t h o t h e r p l a y e r s i n t h e
i n t e r n a t i o n a l a r e n a , w h e n t h e r e i s s o me s o r t o f a n e c o n o mi c i n c e n t i v e
- 16 -
t h a t 's o n t h e t a b l e , t h e n C h i n a c a n g e t p r e t t y p r a g ma t i c w h e n i t c o me s
to dealing with this.
I 'm mo r e i n t e r e s t e d i n t h a t s i d e o f t h i n g s t h a n t h i n k i n g a b o u t t h e
a s s e r t i v e n e s s o f t h e C h i n e s e s t a t e ma y b e i n r e g a r d s t o c y b e r s p a c e o r
o u t e r s p a c e w h e r e t h e n o r ms a r e e v e n l e s s w e l l d e f i n e d .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Okay. My second question is for
Dr. Dreyer. And Dr. Carlson, if you have views as well, I would like
t o h e a r t h e m. Y o u b o t h s p o k e a b o u t C h i n e s e v i e w s w i t h r e g a r d t o
s o v e r e i g n t y , t h a t t h e y f o r t h e mo s t p a r t d o n 't c o mp r o mi s e o n t h e
p r i n c i p l e , a n d t h e y b u y i n t o t h e c o n c e p t s o f mu t u a l n o n i n t e r f e r e n c e ,
b u t y e t I 'm c u r i o u s a s t o h o w t h e y c a n t a k e t h a t v i e w , o n o n e h a n d , b u t
on the other hand seem to take actions that arguably violate others’
s o v e r e i g n t y s u c h a s s e n d i n g s u b ma r i n e s i n t o J a p a n e s e w a t e r s ?
You would think that they would have a reciprocal view when it
c o me s t o a d d r e s s i n g t h e i r o w n s o v e r e i g n t y w i t h r e g a r d t o o t h e r s , b u t
y e t y o u d o n 't a l w a y s s e e t h a t i n t h e i r s t r a t e g y o r i n t h e i r p o l i c y .
DR. DREYER: I don't think they do have a reciprocal idea. I
t h i n k t h i s i s o n e o f t h e t h i n g s t h a t g o t P r e s i d e n t C a r t e r i s s o mu c h
trouble with regard to negotiating with the Chinese, that he thought
t h a t i f h e ma d e c e r t a i n c o n c e s s i o n s , t h e y w o u l d ma k e c e r t a i n
c o n c e s s i o n s , a n d t h e n f o u n d t h e y d o n 't ma k e c o n c e s s i o n s .
I would certainly agree--in fact, I say so in the paper--that
C h i n a 's a c q u i e s c e n c e o n E a s t T i mo r a n d K o s o v o i n d e p e n d e n c e h a v e
d e f i n i t e i mp l i c a t i o n s f o r T a i w a n . T h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t ma y d e n y
it, but they are there, and so there I would agree with Dr. Carlson on
that one.
But I don't really see taking the long view, 20, 30 years, is going
to be a solution to this. I think that is what perhaps Jim Mann was
talking about when he talked about "the soothing scenario." Naturally
I t h i n k - - a s t h o s e o f y o u w h o k n o w me k n o w t h i s , I 'm a p e s s i mi s t b y
n a t u r e , a n d I s u s p e c t t h a t D r . C a r l s o n i s a n o p t i mi s t b y n a t u r e , a n d t h a t
accounts for the slight differences between us.
DR. CARLSON: Just briefly, Stephen Krasner from Stanford,
a n d l o n g a t t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t a s w e l l , i n h i s w o r k o n s o v e r e i g n t y
d e f i n e s i t a s o r g a n i z e d h y p o c r i s y . A n d s o i t 's n o t j u s t C h i n a t h a t i s
s e l e c t i v e . I t h i n k i f y o u l o o k a r o u n d t h e g l o b e , y o u 'r e g o i n g t o f i n d
leaders picking and choosing when their sovereignty is to be defended,
w h e n i t 's t o b e c o mp r o mi s e d o n , a n d h o w t o d e a l w i t h o t h e r s .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you both.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r We s s e l .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : T h a n k y o u b o t h f o r b e i n g h e r e .
J u n e , i t 's g r e a t t o s e e y o u o n t h e o t h e r s i d e o f t h e t a b l e t h i s t i me .
Thank you for participating. I 'd l i k e t o a s k a q u e s t i o n r e l a t i n g
actually to a hearing we held several weeks ago on sovereign wealth
- 17 -
funds, sovereignty being a key question there.
How do the Chinese look at sovereignty over their business
a f f a i r s ? C a n o n e d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e t w e e n a C h i n e s e c o mp a n y a n d t h e
a c t i o n s o f i t s g o v e r n me n t ? D o t h e y v i e w a n y C h i n e s e e n t i t y a s b e i n g
a n e x t e n s i o n o f t h e i r p o l i c i e s ? We 'v e s e e n t h e " g o o u t " t h e o r y , e t
cetera, et cetera.
C o n v e r s e l y , h o w d o t h e y v i e w U . S . c o mp a n i e s d o i n g b u s i n e s s i n
China? Do they view those as being under their sovereign control?
Should we see ourselves as having any extraterritorial reach, if you
w i l l , o v e r e n t i t i e s ? We 'v e b e e n t o l d t h a t o u r o w n c o mp a n i e s a r e a g e n t s
of change in China.
I f y o u c a n c o mme n t o n t h a t a n d h o w t h e y v i e w b u s i n e s s a f f a i r s ,
t h e e x t e n s i o n o f t h e i r e c o n o mi c a f f a i r s , e t c e t e r a ? B o t h w i t n e s s e s ,
please.
DR. DREYER: Yes. You always did ask tough questions. The
C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t d o e s w a n t i t s c o mp a n i e s t o d o w h a t i t w a n t s
i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y , a n d t h e r e h a v e b e e n v a r i o u s c o mp l a i n t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y
w i t h r e g a r d t o L a t i n A me r i c a , t h a t I k n o w o f , a n d p e r h a p s e l s e w h e r e
t h a t I d o n o t k n o w o f , t h a t w h e n t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t w a n t s o n e o f
i t s c o mp a n i e s t o a c q u i r e s o me t h i n g , i t w i l l ma k e i t e a s y f o r t h a t
a c q u i s i t i o n t o t a k e p l a c e b y p r o v i d i n g t h i s c o mp a n y w i t h s u p e r b
s u b s i d i e s s o t h a t i t c a n o u t b i d t h e c o mp e t i t i o n f r o m B r i t a i n , t h e
Netherlands, the United States, et cetera, to the extent where they are
a c q u i r i n g t h e s e a s s e t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y e n e r g y a s s e t s , a n d s o me t i me s
mi n i n g a s s e t s a t v a l u a t i o n s , a t p r i c e s t h a t a r e v e r y mu c h h i g h e r t h a n
the valuations.
T h i s h a s c a u s e d s o me w h i n i n g , a n d I c a n s e e t h e o t h e r s i d e o f i t
a s w e l l . A s C o mmi s s i o n e r R e i n s c h i s p r o b a b l y a b o u t t o p o i n t o u t , i f
y o u p a y t o o mu c h f o r s o me t h i n g , l e t 's s a y o i l i s $ 7 5 a b a r r e l , a n d t h e n
a y e a r l a t e r , o i l g o e s u p t o w h a t e v e r i t t r a d e d a t t h i s mo r n i n g , 1 0 0 a n d
s o me t h i n g - -
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: 102.
D R . D R E Y E R : Y e s , 1 0 2 - - t h e n ma y b e y o u h a v e n 't ma d e s u c h a
b a d d e a l a f t e r a l l . B u t t h e i mp o r t a n t p o i n t h e r e i s t h a t i t i s t h e
C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t t h a t i s ma k i n g i t p o s s i b l e f o r t h e s e e n t i t i e s t o d o
this, and I think the Chinese are very concerned about what their
s o v e r e i g n w e a l t h c a n d o . Wh y w o u l d n 't t h e y b e c a u s e t h e y h a v e t h e
w o r l d 's l a r g e s t f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e a s s e t s .
I would be aware of the other side of the question--that
A me r i c a n c o mp a n i e s i n C h i n a a r e g o i n g t o c h a n g e C h i n a , b e c a u s e i t
mo s t l y s e e ms t o g o t h e o t h e r w a y . C hi n a i s a b l e t o b e n d t h e c o mp a n i e s
to its own will, as I think President Clinton found out rather early in
h i s p r e s i d e n c y . T h e i n f l u e n c e s e e ms t o g o t h e o t h e r w a y . I 'm
r e mi n i s c i n g a b o u t t h e s a d l y d e c e a s e d R e p r e s e n t a t i v e T o m L a n t o s '
- 18 -
c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n o f J e r r y Y a n g a s a " mo r a l p y g my " a n d t h i n g s l i k e t h a t .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : D r . C a r l s o n .
DR. CARLSON: Just briefly, one of the difficulties in
answering your question is the general lack of transparency when it
c o me s t o t h e p o l i c y ma k i n g p r o c e s s i n C h i n a .
I t h i n k t h a t D r . D r e y e r 's a s s e s s me n t ma y b e c o r r e c t , b u t I a l s o
have grad students who are in the field who are trying to figure out
a c t u a l l y w h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p i s b e t w e e n c o mp a n i e s a n d v a r i o u s
mi n i s t r i e s . T h i s i s a h u g e s t a t e , i t i s i n c r e d i b l y c o mp l e x , a n d a l s o
fairly secretive.
S o t o a s s u me t h a t t h e r e i s s o me s o r t o f d i r e c t c o n t r o l , t h e r e
would be a degree of coordination that exists here that so far I don't
think that we have a lot of evidence to support.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : B u t l e t me p a r s e t h a t i f I c o u l d .
DR. CARLSON: Sure.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : U n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t w e d o n 't h a v e a
l o t o f t r a n s p a r e n c y a n d t h a t w e d o n 't k n o w h o w mu c h c o n t r o l , i n t h e i r
view of sovereignty, to the extent you know, do they view Chinese
c o mp a n i e s , w h e t h e r d o i n g b u s i n e s s i n C h i n a o r i n t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s
elsewhere, as being within their sovereign control? So that a Chinese
e n t i t y i s a C h i n e s e e n t i t y n o ma t t e r w h e r e i t d o e s b u s i n e s s ?
D R . C A R L S O N : I 'd h a v e t o s a y t h a t I d o n 't f e e l c o n f i d e n t a b o u t
a n s w e r i n g t h e q u e s t i o n . A l s o b e c a u s e i t i n v o l v e s mo n e y , a n d a s a n
a c a d e mi c , I d o n 't s e e a l o t o f t h a t .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : I w o n ' t t o u c h t h a t q u e s t i o n .
D R . D R E Y E R : M i k e , I w o u l d s a y t h a t t h e y d o v i e w t h e c o mp a n y
a s a n e x t e n s i o n o f t h e i r s o v e r e i g n t y , b u t t h a t t h a t d o e s n 't me a n t h e
c o mp a n y w i l l a l w a y s b e h a v e t h a t w a y .
I f s o me me mb e r o f , o r s o me C E O o f t h a t c o mp a n y s t e p s f a r o u t
o f l i n e , y o u c a n b e s u r e t h a t t h a t p e r s o n w i l l b e f i r e d i mme d i a t e l y , b u t
the trick in China is always not outright defiance, but “how can I sidle
a r o u n d t h e r u l e s , ” a n d y o u d o f i n d t h e s e c o mp a n i e s s i d l i n g a r o u n d t h e
r u l e s w h e n t h e y f e e l i t 's t o t h e i r e c o n o mi c a d v a n t a g e .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : T h a n k y o u .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : V i c e C h a i r B a r t h o l o me w .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: T h a n k y o u . T h a n k y o u t o
b o t h o f y o u f o r v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g t e s t i mo n y . J u n e , w e mi s s y o u .
D R . D R E Y E R : T h a n k y o u . I mi s s y o u t o o !
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: N i c e t o h a v e y o u o n t h e
o t h e r s i d e o f t h e t a b l e , b u t I l e a r n e d s o mu c h f r o m y o u w h e n y o u w e r e
o n t h i s s i d e , a n d i t 's w o n d e r f u l t o h a v e y o u h e r e .
D r . C a r l s o n , v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g , w e l c o me , a n d y o u r v i e w s a r e v e r y
interesting.
I w a n t t o f o l l o w u p o n C o mmi s s i o n e r E s p e r 's i d e a o r q u e s t i o n ,
- 19 -
a n d I f i n d my s e l f t h i n k i n g t h a t w h e n w e t a l k a b o u t s o v e r e i g n t y a n d t h e
Chinese concept of sovereignty being a cornerstone, it feels like the
cornerstone is their own sovereignty, and when it is about other
c o u n t r i e s ' s o v e r e i g n t y , i t 's a mu c h mo r e p o r o u s t h i n g .
S o w e h a v e e x a mp l e s o f t h e mu t u a l n o n i n t e r f e r e n c e i n e a c h
o t h e r 's a f f a i r s , b u t t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t t a k e s i s s u e w i t h t h e U . S . '
right to protect national security or to include national security
i mp l i c a t i o n s i n f o r e i g n p u r c h a s e s o f U . S . a s s e t s , a n d y e t f e n c e s o f f
a s p e c t s o f i t s o w n e c o n o my t h a t c a n 't b e p u r c h a s e d .
T h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t h a s u s e d b u s i n e s s o v e r t h e y e a r s , U . S .
b u s i n e s s , t o l o b b y f o r C h i n a 's p o l i t i c a l i n t e r e s t s i n t h e U . S . I 'm
t h i n k i n g p a r t i c u l a r l y o n t h e l i n e s o f h u ma n r i g h t s , a n d i t i s n 't j u s t
here. There was Chinese direct influence in the presidential elections
i n Z a mb i a .
So there is this real hypocrisy or two-tiered system where the
C h i n e s e g e t e x t r e me l y p r o t e c t i v e o f t h e i r o w n s o v e r e i g n t y , b u t w h e n i t
c o me s t o o t h e r n a t i o n s , i t 's ma y b e n o t s o g o o d . A m I w r o n g i n t h e w a y
I 'm t h i n k i n g a b o u t t h i s ? I g u e s s t h a t 's t h e w a y t o a s k t h e q u e s t i o n .
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Yes.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: B i l l a l w a y s t e l l s me I 'm
wrong. But what are your thoughts?
D R . C A R L S O N : A g a i n , I t h i n k o n e t h i n g t o k e e p i n mi n d i s t h a t
a l o t o f t h e s t a t e s d o t h e e x a c t s a me t h i n g , a r e v e r y p r o t e c t i v e o f t h e i r
o w n r i g h t s , a n d t h e n w h e n t h e y l o o k o u t w a r d d e c i d e t h a t i t 's a
s o v e r e i g n t y i s s u e w h e n i t s u i t s t h e m o r i t 's a n o n - s o v e r e i g n i s s u e a n d
is fair ground when the situation changes.
B u t I t h i n k i t ' s i mp o r t a n t n o t t o o v e r l o o k e i t h e r t h a t w h e n i t
c o me s t o C h i n e s e f o r e i g n p o l i c y , w h i l e t h e r e h a s b e e n a f a i r l y
conservative position to the expansion of the international
c o mmu n i t y 's r i g h t t o i n t e r v e n e i n h u ma n r i g h t s ' c r i s e s , w i t h i n A s i a . A t
t h e s a me t i me , l e t 's l o o k a t t e r r i t o r i a l i s s u e s , w h i c h w o u l d s e e m t o b e a
foundational aspect of sovereignty, however we define it, here China
h a d l a i d o u t t h e s e e x p a n s i v e c l a i ms , r i g h t , t h r o u g h C e n t r a l A s i a i n t o
t h e f o r me r S o v i e t U n i o n , a n d w h e n p u s h c a me t o s h o v e i n t h e '9 0 s , i n
order to garner regional stability, they accepted the territorial status
q u o a n d i n ma n y c a s e s a c c e p t e d l e s s t h a n 5 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o n t e s t e d
land even though they had the ability to push fairly easily into Central
Asia if they wanted with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
So I think within Asia, Beijing has really shown an ability to
kind of calibrate its interests and shelve what would have been
sovereign rights in favor of other benefits. So again, I think when we
t a l k a b o u t s o v e r e i g n t y , i t ma k e s a l o t o f s e n s e t h e w a y t h e C o mmi s s i o n
i s a p p r o a c h i n g t h i s . We w a n t t o t a l k a b o u t a s p e c i f i c i s s u e a r e a a n d
then how sovereignty plays out within regards to that specific issue
- 20 -
a r e a r a t h e r t h a n t a l k i n g i n g e n e r a l t e r ms a b o u t s o v e r e i g n t y b e c a u s e i t
g e t s v e r y a b s t r a c t , a n d t h a t 's w h e r e t h e n t h e r e 's a l s o a l o t o f r o o m t o
kind of duck and cover.
S o t h a t w o u l d b e t h e b e g i n n i n g s o f a n a n s w e r . I 'm n o t s u r e t h a t
t h a t 's e n o u g h b u t i t ’ s s o me t h i n g .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: D r . D r e y e r .
D R . D R E Y E R : Y e s . I d o n ' t s e e t h e m c o mp r o mi s i n g w i t h r e g a r d
t o S o u t h e a s t A s i a a t a l l . I s e e a n i n i t i a l “ w e 'l l n e g o t i a t e w i t h y o u a b o u t
these disputed territories,” but then “we insist on negotiating one on
one.”
DR. CARLSON: In Central Asia.
DR. DREYER: Okay. But Southeast Asia--
DR. CARLSON: Yes.
DR. DREYER: --we insist on negotiating one on one, and then
o b v i o u s l y t h i s i s k i n d o f l i k e a - - I d o n 't k n o w - - a n e l e p h a n t t r y i n g t o
negotiate with--
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: A f l e a .
D R . D R E Y E R : Wi t h w h a t ?
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: Wi t h a f l e a .
D R . D R E Y E R : Wi t h a f l e a , y e s , y e s . T h a t w a s t h e i r a t t i t u d e .
Then the ASEAN got them to negotiate, but invited them in on
o b s e r v e r s t a t u s a n d , o f c o u r s e , t h e y d o mi n a t e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n . T h e
Chinese are adept at saying to one nation things like “you want to be
d e s i g n a t e d a t o u r i s t d e s i g n a t i o n ? ” o r “ y o u w a n t t h i s e c o n o mi c
contract?”, “we think you ought to sign on to our view on this.” And
guess what they always do.
T h i s s t r i k e s me a s a r e v i v a l o f t h e t r i b u t e s y s t e m e x c e p t t h a t n o w
i n s t e a d o f t h e mo r a l s w a y o f t h e e mp e r o r , w h a t y o u h a v e i s t r a d e
concessions being used as incentives instead. I also see a creeping
a s s e r t i v e n e s s : t h a t i s , a s t h e C h i n e s e e c o n o my g e t s s t r o n g e r , t h i s i s a
mo r e p o w e r f u l l e v e r , a n d a s t h e mi l i t a r y g e t s s t r o n g e r , t h i s t o o i s a
mo r e p o w e r f u l l e v e r .
S o w h a t l o o k s l i k e a w i l l i n g n e s s t o c o mp r o mi s e i s b e c a u s e y o u
can give in on the technique, and then proceed to a kind of
progressively creeping push because is Indonesia going to declare war
o n C h i n a b e c a u s e a s ma l l p i e c e o f i t s t e r r i t o r y h a s n o w b e e n t a k e n
over? No. So again I see that as tactical rather than strategic
c o mp r o mi s e .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Thank you. C o mmi s s i o n e r
Reinsch.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Thank you. We l c o me , J u n e .
We l c o me , D r . C a r l s o n . F i r s t , o n e o f t h e t h i n g s y o u j u s t s a i d s t r u c k
me . L e a v i n g a s i d e T a i w a n f o r t h e mo me n t a n d t h e S o u t h C h i n a S e a
i s l a n d s , a r e t h e r e a r e a s o n C h i n a 's l a n d b o r d e r s w h e r e t h e y h a v e
- 21 -
t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i ms t h a t e x c e e d t h e e x i s t i n g b o r d e r ? I n d i a , I s u p p o s e .
DR. DREYER: That exceed what?
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Their existing border. India, I
suppose. Anywhere else?
D R . C A R L S O N : A l i t t l e b i t , t h e r e 's a l i t t l e b i t o f d i s c r e p a n c y
a l o n g t h e b o r d e r w i t h V i e t n a m, t i n y , b u t i t a mo u n t s t o a b o u t t h e s i z e o f
t h i s r o o m e s s e n t i a l l y . T h e b o r d e r a c t u a l l y w i t h N o r t h K o r e a i s n 't
e n t i r e l y s e t t l e d e i t h e r , b u t i t ' s n o t a ma t t e r o f r e a l d i s p u t e .
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: No one else is interested.
D R . C A R L S O N : A n d , a g a i n , I t h i n k w h a t 's f a s c i n a t i n g h e r e , a n d
I t h i n k J u n e i s r i g h t t o t a l k a b o u t w h a t 's g o i n g o n i n S o u t h C h i n a S e a ,
however I would still disagree a little bit with her interpretation. I
think the 2002 Code of Conduct which China signs on to is a
me a n i n g f u l a g r e e me n t . I t ma y b e j u s t t o b u y t i me a n d t h e c h a l l e n g e
ma y b e - - a n d s o w e 'r e p u t t i n g d o w n b e t s h e r e , s p e c u l a t i n g o n t h e
f u t u r e - - a n d I t h i n k i f y o u l o o k mo r e b r o a d l y , t h e r e i s a b i t o f a s h i f t
going on.
T h e c o n c e r n a c t u a l l y i s n 't s o mu c h t h a t C h i n a i s mo v i n g a w a y
f r o m a s o v e r e i g n s y s t e m. S o v e r e i g n t y i s g e n e r a l l y a c o n s e r v a t i v e
n o r m. I t 's k i n d o f k e e p i n g t h i n g s i n p l a c e - - w h a t 's mi n e i s mi n e ; w h a t 's
yours is yours.
June, referring back to the historical record--I think what we
mi g h t r e a l l y w a n t t o l o o k a t i s t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e r e mi g h t b e a
r e s u r g e n c e o r r e t u r n t o a b e l i e f i n s o me o f t h e r i g h t s t h a t c a me w i t h i t ,
i n a S i n o - c e n t r i c s y s t e m a n d a mo r e t r a d i t i o n a l s y s t e m, h e r e I a m
t a l k i n g a b o u t " t i a n x i a , " u n d e r h e a v e n , a n d w h a t t h a t mi g h t me a n .
I d o n 't t h i n k t h a t t h a t s h i f t h a s g o n e t h a t f a r , a n d I t h i n k y o u d o
look at the record with Central Asia, with Russia, the CBMs with
India, and they're accepting the territorial status quo. But then where
does Taiwan fit, obviously that is a bigger question.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Right. I wanted to exclude that
because I think--
D R . C A R L S O N : T h a t ma k e s s e n s e , y e s .
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: --I wouldn't say it's a special case,
b u t i t 's c e r t a i n l y a d i f f e r e n t - -
DR. DREYER: I think India would be willing to accept the
territorial status quo with regard to Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh, et
c e t e r a , b u t I d o n 't t h i n k C h i n a i s w i l l i n g t o . A n d e v e r y s o o f t e n I s e e
that there is creeping assertiveness there as well. Stone forts are
being built over what India considers the line of actual control and so
o n . S o , t h e r e , t o o , I s e e t h e " s a l a mi t a c t i c s . "
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Let's pursue that. I really had a
b u n c h o f o t h e r q u e s t i o n s , b u t l e t 's p u r s u e t h a t f o r j u s t a mi n u t e . D o
y o u t h i n k t h a t 's b e c a u s e t h e y 'r e a c t u a l l y i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e a c r e a g e t h a t
- 22 -
t h e y ' r e b u i l d i n g l i t t l e f o r t s o n o r i s t hi s a t a c t i c i n a l a r g e r g e o p o l i t i c a l
strategy?
D R . D R E Y E R : I t h i n k i t 's a t ac t i c i n a l a r g e r g e o p o l i t i c a l
s t r a t e g y . I d o n 't t h i n k t h e y c a r e t h a t mu c h a b o u t t h e t e r r i t o r y .
DR. CARLSON: I would add that that's not, certainly not
u n p r e c e d e n t e d . T h e S i n o - V i e t n a me s e b o r d e r w a r i n 1 9 7 9 w a s n o t o v e r
t h e l a n d i n q u e s t i o n , i t o b v i o u s l y h a d mu c h mo r e t o d o w i t h t h e S o v i e t
i n f l u e n c e i n V i e t n a m a n d C h i n a 's o b j e c t i o n t o t h a t .
But stepping back from the specifics of potentially creeping
assertiveness on the Chinese part, the fact that China has reached these
c o n f i d e n c e - b u i l d i n g me a s u r e s w i t h N e w D e l h i o v e r t h e c o u r s e o f t h e
1990s took Sino-Indian border from being a real potential flashpoint in
t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p t o , n o t d e mi l i t a r i z i n g i t , b u t r e a l l y d e e s c a l a t i n g t h e
c h a n c e s o f mi l i t a r y c o n f l i c t , a n d I w o u l d b e s h o c k e d i f t h e r e w a s
o u t r i g h t mi l i t a r y e x c h a n g e t h e r e i n t h e n e a r - t e r m f u t u r e e v e n a s t h e s e
two Asian giants are kind of eyeing each other and trying to decide
what their intentions are.
C O M M I S S I O N E R R E I N S C H : O k a y . L e t me s h i f t b a c k t o w h e r e
C o mmi s s i o n e r E s p e r b e g a n , a n d t h i s ma y b e a n u n f a i r c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n .
I f s o , s a y s o . B u t i t s e e ms t o me t h a t D r . C a r l s o n i s s u g g e s t i n g t h a t
they are gradually, if you will, being integrated into the global
c o mmu n i t y o f n a t i o n s , f o r l a c k o f a b e t t e r t e r m, a n d b e g i n n i n g t o a d o p t
s o v e r e i g n t y n o r ms t h a t a r e mo r e c o n v e n t i o n a l t h a n t h e i r h i s t o r i c a l
approach.
Dr. Dreyer, I think, has recognized that evolution, but probably
n o t t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t D r . C a r l s o n h a s a n d ma y b e a l i t t l e l e s s c e r t a i n
about the direction.
C a n y o u b o t h c o mme n t , t h o u g h , o n w h e r e t h a t t a k e s u s i n t e r ms
o f h o w w e d e a l w i t h t h e m b e c a u s e I 'm n o t s u r e t h a t I 'v e h e a r d t h e t w o
o f y o u s a y w i l d l y d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s a b o u t w h a t A me r i c a n t a c t i c s o u g h t
t o b e e v e n t h o u g h y o u ma y p e r c e i v e t h e s i t u a t i o n a s s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t ?
D R . D R E Y E R : T h i s i s i n t h e c l o s i n g s e n t e n c e o f my t e s t i mo n y
w h e r e I w a s r u s h i n g t o c o n c l u d e - - b u t i t s e e ms t o me t h a t t h e C h i n e s e
w i l l a t l e a s t c o mp r o mi s e t a c t i c a l l y i f t h e y a r e me t w i t h h a r d l i n e
negotiations on the part of the people they are negotiating with.
T h i s i s t h e s o r t o f t h i n g t h a t o u r n e g o t i a t o r s d o n 't s e e m t o b e
v e r y g o o d a t . T h e y d o n 't me mo r i z e t h e h i s t o r i c r e c o r d . T h e y s a y
i n c r e d i b l y s t u p i d t h i n g s s o me t i me s b e c a u s e t h e y a c c e p t w h a t t h e
C h i n e s e s a y a s t r u t h — “ w e 'v e a l w a y s b e e n a c e n t r a l i z e d i n t e g r a t e d
n a t i o n ; a l l o f t h e s e t e r r i t o r i e s h a v e b e e n s t o l e n f r o m u s ; t h e r e 's b e e n
t h e c e n t u r y o f h u mi l i a t i o n ” a s i f s o me h o w t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t w a s
n o t r e s p o n s i b l e , a t l e a s t i n p a r t , f o r t h e c e n t u r y o f h u mi l i a t i o n . A n d ,
“ t h e r e f o r e , g u y s , y o u o w e u s . ” O u r n e g o t i a t i o n s s e e m t o s i mp l y a c c e p t
this.
- 23 -
 These people who negotiate do not seem to understand either the
historical record or the record of negotiations from ten years ago.
S o me t h i n g t h a t I a m p a r t i c u l a r l y c o n c e r n e d a b o u t i s i n t h e l a s t c o u p l e
o f l i n e s o f my s t a t e me n t : this new idea that China is a fragile
superpower that is too large for the United States to allow to fail, so
t h a t s o me h o w w e n e e d t o c o mp r o mi s e i n o r d e r t o k e e p t h e g o v e r n me n t
i n p o w e r b e c a u s e i t w i l l b e b a d f o r i nt e r n a t i o n a l s t a b i l i t y i f t h e y f a i l .
I t h i n k t h a t 's a v e r y s e l f - d e f e a t i n g s t r a t e g y .
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Dr. Carlson.
D R . C A R L S O N : I t h i n k y o u r a s s e s s me n t i s f a i r l y a c c u r a t e . I
t h i n k t h a t t h e r e ' s s o me d i s t a n c e b e t we e n D r . D r e y e r a n d I , b u t i t 's n o t
huge, although, when we spin forward to thinking about policy
i mp l i c a t i o n s , t h e r e i s p r o b a b l y a g r e a t e r d i v e r g e n c e .
I 'd f i r s t , t h o u g h , a d d b e c a u s e y o u 'v e p l a c e d a n e mp h a s i s o n t h e
f a c t t h a t t h e s e a r e t a c t i c a l mo v e s , I t h i n k t h a t i f y o u ma k e t a c t i c a l
c o n c e s s i o n s t h r o u g h a n u mb e r o f i t e r a t i o n s , a n u mb e r o f r o u n d s ,
e v e n t u a l l y t h a t k i n d o f c a t c h e s u p . I t h a s i mp l i c a t i o n s b e c a u s e y o u r
word is sort of on the line, in other words, because of reputational
concerns.
It also creates institutions. T h e s e , s o r t s o f i mp a c t s a r e
u n i n t e n d e d , u n i n t e n d e d o u t c o me s , a n d a l o t o f t h e c h a n g e i n t h e
C h i n e s e a p p r o a c h t o s o v e r e i g n t y a c t u a l l y c o me s o u t o f t h e u n i n t e n d e d
c o n s e q u e n c e s o f e a r l i e r c o mp r o mi s e s a n d t h e i mp a c t t h e n g o e s d e e p e r .
You can see this when you look into Chinese language
p u b l i c a t i o n s , f o r e x a mp l e , i n t h e a r e a s o f f o r e i g n a f f a i r s a n d s e c u r i t y
s t u d i e s , t h e r e a r e s c h o l a r s w h o t a l k i n p r e t t y b r o a d t e r ms a b o u t h o w
sovereignty has changed. These scholars are very influential people
l i k e Wa n g Y i z h o u f r o m t h e Wo r l d E c o n o mi c s a n d P o l i t i c s I n s t i t u t e o r
Qin Yaqing from the Foreign Affairs College. These are well-placed
p e o p l e . T h e y 'r e n o t w a y o u t o n t h e f r i n g e s ; t h e s e a r e c e n t r a l f i g u r e s
w i t h i n t h e C h i n e s e f o r e i g n p o l i c y ma k i n g e s t a b l i s h me n t . T h e y d o n 't
ma k e d e c i s i o n s , b u t t h e y t a l k t o d e c i s i o n - ma k e r s .
A n d t h e n i n t e r ms o f p o l i c y i mp l i c a t i o n s , o n e t h i n g t h a t I f e e l
has changed over the past ten years or so is that in the 1990s,
i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r e s s u r e l e d b y a n A me r i c a n p r e s e n c e w a s f a i r l y w e l l
d e f i n e d , a n d C h i n a w a s i n a r e a c t i v e p o s i t i o n i n t e r ms o f t h e r e s o u r c e s
at its disposal.
I 'm n o t s o s u r e w h a t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l a n d A me r i c a n p o s i t i o n i s
n o w . I t h i n k i t 's ma y b e a l i t t l e b i t mo r e s p l i t u p , a n d a l s o C h i n a i s i n a
mo r e a s s e r t i v e p o s i t i o n . I t h a s mo r e r e s o u r c e s a t i t s d i s p o s a l s o i t ' s
g o i n g t o b e h a r d e r t o i n f l u e n c e t h e m t o g e t c h a n g e s a n d c o mp r o mi s e ,
a n d e a c h y e a r , i t g e t s mo r e d i f f i c u l t .
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Thank you.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r S h e a .
- 24 -
 COMMISSIONER SHEA: Thank you both for being here today.
Dr. Carlson, you said that the idea of sovereignty was a very
a mo r p h o u s c o n c e p t . You were very helpful, I thought, in your
t e s t i mo n y i n o u t l i n i n g t h e f o u r c o mp o n e n t s o f s o v e r e i g n t y - - t e r r i t o r i a l
s o v e r e i g n a u t h o r i t y ; n o i n t e r f e r e n c e i n i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s ; e c o n o mi c
s o v e r e i g n t y ; a n d t h e n j u r i s d i c t i o n a l s o v e r e i g n t y , me a n i n g t h e a u t h o r i t y
of the state, the absolute authority of the state over the individual
citizen within China. This is really a question for both of you.
I was just wondering is there is any serious discussion within
a c a d e mi c c i r c l e s i n C h i n a c o n c e r n i n g t h e s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r e t h n i c
Chinese not living within Chinese territorial boundaries? Is that
s o me t h i n g t h a t i s t a l k e d a b o u t i n a c a d e mi c c i r c l e s i n C h i n a ?
D R . C A R L S O N : I n my r e s e a r c h i t d o e s n 't . I t d o e s n 't c o me u p
t h a t mu c h . I t h i n k b e c a u s e t h i s i s s u c h a p o t e n t i a l l i g h t n i n g r o d i n
t e r ms o f d e f i n i n g t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e s e p e o p l e a r e C h i n e s e , a n d
t h e n n o t o n l y t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e y t h e n ma y b e a r e b e h o l d e n t o t h e
P R C , b u t a l s o t h e o b l i g a t i o n s t h a t B e i j i n g w o u l d h a v e t o t h e m, t o
protect their position.
I 'm t h i n k i n g p a r t i c u l a r l y i n S o u t h e a s t A s i a a n d I n d o n e s i a ,
w h e n e v e r t h e r e i s u n r e s t , t h e e t h n i c C h i n e s e a r e b l a me d , a n d B e i j i n g
h a s r e a l l y b e e n c r i t i c i z e d o n t h e We b a n d e l s e w h e r e b y C h i n e s e
nationalists for not doing enough to protect these people, but the
d i s c u s s i o n s a mo n g a c a d e mi c s a b o u t s o v e r e i g n t y h a v e f o c u s e d mo r e o n
its role in international politics and then indirectly thinking about
w h a t t h i s me a n s f o r C h i n a .
T h e d i s c u s s i o n a b o u t C h i n a s p e c i f i c a l l y i s f a i r l y l i mi t e d a n d
does hew fairly closely to the party line. You really have to look
fairly carefully to find degrees of difference. They exist. I think
t h e r e i s a p r e t t y v i b r a n t d e b a t e a c t u a l l y i n a c a d e mi c c i r c l e s b u t n o t
a b o u t t h i s i s s u e . I t h i n k i t 's o n e t h a t ma y b e s o me w h a t v e r b o t e n .
DR. DREYER: I really don't know of any debate about this in
a c a d e mi c c i r c l e s . A s i t c o n c e r n s a p o l i c y i s s u e , i f y o u 'r e t a l k i n g a b o u t
H u J i n t a o n o w , I d o n 't t h i n k t h e y w a n t t o b e s e e n a s e x e r c i s i n g
s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r t h e s e p e o p l e b e c a u s e i t c o u l d c a u s e t h e m p r o b l e ms
and fears in these countries, which are already a little bit afraid of a,
" f i f t h c o l u mn , " t o u s e a C o l d Wa r t e r m, a f i f t h c o l u mn o p e r a t i n g o n
behalf of China.
I t h i n k t h e r e a l b a t t l e i n t h e l e a d e r s h i p ' s mi n d i s t h a t i t i s a
b a t t l e o f t h e h e a r t s a n d mi n d s f o r t h e s e p e o p l e , a n d i t i s n o t s o mu c h
e x e r c i s i n g s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r t h e m a s t r y i n g t o ma k e s u r e t h a t t h e y 'r e o n
t h e s i d e o f t h e P R C i n mo s t i s s u e s a s o p p o s e d t o T a i w a n .
I happen to have a very dear friend from when we were at
H a r v a r d t o g e t h e r , w h o i s h e a d o f t h e T a i w a n 's O C A C , w h i c h u s e d t o b e
t h e O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e A f f a i r s C o mmi s s i o n , b u t h a s r e c e n t l y b e e n n a me
- 25 -
t h e O v e r s e a s C o mp a t r i o t s A f f a i r s b e c a u s e t h e y 'r e n o t s u r e — t h a t i s , t h e
T a i w a n e s e a r e n o t s u r e , t h e y 'r e C h i n e s e a n y mo r e . S h e i s c o n s t a n t l y
t a l k i n g a b o u t h e r p r o b l e ms i n t r y i n g t o d e a l w i t h w h a t t h e C h i n e s e a r e
o f f e r i n g t o t h e o v e r s e a s C h i n e s e c o mmu n i t i e s i n t e r ms o f mo n e y a n d
i n f l u e n c e . S o t h a t 's r e a l l y w h e r e t h e c o n c e r n i s .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Thank you. C o mmi s s i o n e r
Videnieks.
C O M M I S S I O N E R V I D E N I E K S : I t h i n k b o t h o f y o u me n t i o n e d
t h e L a w o f t h e S e a T r e a t y . I t 's my u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t t h e U . S . h a s n o t
s i g n e d i t y e t ; P R C h a s . I t 's my u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t r o u g h l y t h e l i mi t s
a r e l i k e 2 0 0 mi l e s f r o m t h e e n d o f t he C o n t i n e n t a l S h e l f , a n d t h e n i f
t h e r e i s a n o v e r l a p l i k e i n t h e c a s e w i t h J a p a n , t h e y ma y n e g o t i a t e o r
have to negotiate.
Wh o i s r i g h t w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e r e s o u r c e s ? I s t h e C h i n e s e
position correct? Is the Japanese position correct? I'm asking this
q u e s t i o n b e c a u s e w e h a d p r i o r t e s t i mo n y i n a n o t h e r h e a r i n g t h a t i n
s o me s t a t e s h e r e i n t h e U . S . , w e d o n 't o w n t h e r e s o u r c e s u n d e r n e a t h
our land.
I u n d e r s t a n d t h a t t h e J a p a n e s e a r e c o mp l a i n i n g t h a t t h e C h i n e s e
are drilling at an angle. So, any views on that? Question to both.
DR. DREYER: The United States has not signed the treaty, but
we have said that we are going to abide by its provisions, and so it
p u t s u s i n a k i n d o f l i mb o .
Wi t h r e g a r d t o t h e d r i l l i n g , y e s , y o u r r e c o l l e c t i o n i s a b s o l u t e l y
c o r r e c t . Wh a t t h e J a p a n e s e h a v e s a i d i s , “ l o o k , w e w i l l e s t a b l i s h a
me d i a n l i n e h e r e b e t w e e n u s w i t h r e g a r d t o o u r c l a i ms , a n d w e d o n 't
want you to drill on our side.” But the Chinese have said consistently
“ w e d o n o t r e c o g n i z e y o u r me d i a n l i n e .” T h e J a p a n e s e a r e n o t s a y i n g
“ y o u 'r e d r i l l i n g o n o u r s i d e . ” T h e y 'r e s a y i n g “ y o u 'r e d r i l l i n g a t a n
a n g l e a n d s o i t 's a f f e c t i n g o u r r e s o u r c e s . ”
E v e r y c o u p l e o f mo n t h s s o me g r o u p a g r e e s t o n e g o t i a t e . T h e r e
i s s o me p r o v i s i o n f o r s o me n e g o t i a t i o n . T h e me d i a s e e m e x c e s s i v e l y
n a i v e o n t h i s : t h e y a l w a y s p r i n t s o me t h i n g a b o u t a n a g r e e me n t b e i n g
n e a r - - a n d t h e n i t f a l l s a p a r t a t t h e l a s t mi n u t e .
Wi t h r e g a r d t o y o u r 2 0 0 mi l e s , t h e r e a r e a l s o d i f f e r e n c e s o f
o p i n i o n , a n d t h i s i s i n t h e w r i t t e n s t a t e me n t , a b o u t a t w h a t p o i n t y o u
me a s u r e t h a t 2 0 0 mi l e s f r o m. N o r ma l l y i t ' s a s t r a i g h t b a s e l i n e , b u t i n
t h e c a s e o f a n a r c h i p e l a g i c s t a t e - - i f t h a t 's t h e r i g h t w a y t o p r o n o u n c e
t h a t w o r d - - a s t a t e w i t h a h e a v i l y i n d e n t e d c o a s t l i n e , y o u ma k e o t h e r
provisions.
The problem for the true archipelagic states such as Indonesia is
that they get very peeved with the Chinese, who insist on insisting that
they are an archipelagic state so they can get the benefit of the
enhanced baseline. Clearly China is not an archipelagic state.
- 26 -
 B e f o r e c o mi n g h e r e , I a c t u a l l y p r i n t e d o u t t h e L a w o f t h e S e a
a n d I d o n o t r e c o mme n d i t u n l e s s y o u h a v e i n s o mn i a . I t w a s 2 1 0 p a g e s
a n d i t 's s o me t i me s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o u n d e r s t a n d i f y o u 'r e n o t a n
international lawyer.
D R . C A R L S O N : I t h i n k J u n e h a s b e e n p r e t t y c o mp r e h e n s i v e o n
t h a t . I 'l l j u s t l e t i t s t a y a t t h a t .
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Okay. O n e mo r e q u e s t i o n .
S i b e r i a . I t 's my u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t t h e R u s s i a n s a r e n o t v e r y d e n s e l y
o c c u p y i n g t h a t a r e a a n d t h a t t h e C h i n e s e a r e mo v i n g i n t h e r e . I s t h e r e
a p a r a l l e l h e r e , l o o k i n g a h e a d ma y b e a c o u p l e d e c a d e s f r o m n o w , w i t h
Kosovo? And how would that affect the sovereignty views of both
states?
DR. DREYER: I know that Russia is worried about it, but
s o me h o w I d o n 't t h i n k t h a t 's t h e i n t e n t . I think if the Chinese
g o v e r n me n t h a s a n y v i e w o n t h i s a t a l l , i t w a n t s w h a t y o u mi g h t c a l l
e c o n o mi c d o mi n a n c e r a t h e r t h a n t e r r i t o r i a l s o v e r e i g n t y .
Wo u l d y o u a g r e e w i t h t h a t ?
DR. CARLSON: Yes, I would agree. I think that China has no
territorial aspirations in that direction but is happy to see an
i n c r e a s i n g e c o n o mi c i n f l u e n c e .
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Thank you.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Thank you. I have a couple
q u e s t i o n s my s e l f . Wh a t a r e t h e t h r e e mo s t i mp o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e s
between the United States and China in their views on sovereignty and
t h e t h r e e mo s t i mp o r t a n t i mp l i c a t i o n s o f t h o s e d i f f e r e n c e s ?
D R . C A R L S O N : U mm.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : A n d y o u d o n 't h a v e t w o h o u r s .
DR. DREYER: Are we being graded on this?
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : I 'm t r y i n g t o f i g u r e o u t w h e r e
t h e c l a s h e s a r e h e r e b e t w e e n u s a n d t h e m.
D R . D R E Y E R : I t h i n k i t 's e x a c t l y w h a t D r . C a r l s o n s a i d . I t 's a
wonderful characterization of sovereignty as--
DR. CARLSON: Organized hypocrisy.
DR. DREYER: --organized hypocrisy. And so I think that each
one of us, the United States, on the one hand, and China, on the other,
is prepared to argue a definition of sovereignty--
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : E x c u s e me .
D R . D R E Y E R : - - t h a t 's t o o u r b e s t i n t e r e s t s .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Wa i t , w a i t , w a i t . I 'm n o t
asking an abstract question, and I'm not asking your view of who's
r i g h t . I 'm o n l y a s k i n g w h e r e a r e t h e t h r e e a r e a s o f d i f f e r e n c e a n d w h a t
a r e t h e i mp l i c a t i o n s o f t h e m, n o t w h o 's r i g h t .
DR. CARLSON: I think to begin answering that question, the
first thing to realize is that the United States is used to being a
- 27 -
d o mi n a n t p o w e r , a n d a s a r e s u l t d o e s n 't h a v e a l o t o f p a r t i c u l a r
sovereign concerns.
We d o n 't w o r r y t o o mu c h a b o u t t h e s e c u r i t y o f o u r b o u n d a r i e s ,
t e r r i t o r i a l i n t e g r i t y . T h e C h i n e s e s t a t e i s b u i l t o n t h e s k e l e t a l r e ma i n s
o f t h e Q i n g D y n a s t y . I t 's a n e mp i r e w h i c h h a s b e c o me a s t a t e , a n d a s a
r e s u l t h a s a n u mb e r o f s o v e r e i g n t y - r e l a t e d i s s u e s t h a t a r e f r o n t a n d
c e n t e r f o r B e i j i n g i n t e r ms o f ma i n t a i n i n g n a t i o n a l u n i t y , t e r r i t o r i a l
i n t e g r i t y , q u e s t i o n s o f r e g i me l e g i t i ma c y , w h i c h t h e n ma k e i t a p p r o a c h
to the sovereignty issue very different the perspective we have here.
I 'm n o t s u r e t h a t t h e r e a r e t h r e e s p e c i f i c t h i n g s . T h e r e a r e
obviously differences on the relationship between sovereignty and
h u ma n r i g h t s , w h i c h i s p r e e mi n e n t .
I t h i n k p r o b a b l y o n t e r r i t o r i a l b o u n d a r i e s , w e d o n 't d i f f e r a l l t h a t
mu c h . O n n a t i o n a l u n i t y , e v e n t h o u g h w e ma y d i f f e r a b o u t w h a t
T a i w a n 's s t a t u s s h o u l d b e , I t h i n k t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a l s o a g r e e s t h a t f o r
t h e mo s t p a r t s o v e r e i g n s t a t e s s h o u l d r e ma i n w h a t t h e y a r e , u n i f i e d ,
a n d b o u n d a r i e s d o n 't c h a n g e . We d o n 't j u mp r e a l l y q u i c k l y t o
r e c o g n i z e n o r ma l l y n e w l y i n d e p e n d e n t s t a t e s . We h a v e c o n c e r n s a b o u t
that.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : Wh a t a b o u t o v e r h e a d , s p a c e ,
going up, over a country?
DR. CARLSON: Oh, I thought you were talking about the
ceiling.
DR. DREYER: Yes, I did, too.
DR. CARLSON: I was thinking about what the reference was. I
t h i n k t h e r e t h a t S e n a t o r N e l s o n h a s r e a l l y n i c e l y i d e n t i f i e d s o me o f t h e
challenges we face in space, and I think the difficulty is that
sovereignty is a norm which goes back to 1648. Through the post-
Wo r l d Wa r I I e r a , t h e r e 's b e e n a n u mb e r o f a d j u s t me n t s , b a s i c a l l y v i a
d e v e l o p me n t o f mu l t i l a t e r a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , t o t r y a n d k i n d o f t a k e t h e
edge off of the international politics.
Wh e n w e t u r n t o c y b e r s p a c e a n d s p a c e , I d o n 't t h i n k t h a t t h e
C h i n e s e h a v e c l e a r p o s i t i o n ; I d o n 't t h i n k w e d o . T h i s i s n e w t e r r a i n ,
a n d i t h a s n 't b e e n v e r y w e l l d e f i n e d .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: June.
D R . D R E Y E R : Y e s . I c a n c e r t a i nl y a g r e e i n t h e a b s t r a c t t h a t
C h i n a i s a r i s i n g p o w e r a n d ma y b e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i s u s e d t o b e i n g
t h e d o mi n a n t p o w e r , b u t I h a v e a p r o b l e m t h i n k i n g w h a t t h e U . S .
position is on this. And certainly the Bush doctrine, which is probably
n o t g o i n g t o b e a r o u n d s i x mo n t h s f r o m n o w , a s P r e s i d e n t C l i n t o n ,
O b a ma o r M c C a i n mo d i f y i t , i s t h a t w e w o n 't a l l o w a n y b o d y t o b e c o me
o u r p e e r c o mp e t i t o r .
Yet there are a lot of people in the United States who would be
n o t u n c o mf o r t a b l e w i t h t h e i d e a o f a l l o w i n g C h i n a t o r i s e . O n e o f my
- 28 -
e n d u r i n g me mo r i e s o f U S C C i s o f a b r i e f i n g w e g o t f r o m s o me b o d y a t
t h e C I A w h o s a i d “ a s C h i n a r e g a i n s i t s r i g h t f u l p l a c e o f d o mi n a n c e i n
the world,” and I nearly gagged.
Obviously there are people in the United States who are willing
to cede that. So I think it depends a lot on not only how China evolves
but how the United States evolves.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : S o i n t h e s e c o n d r o u n d , I 'm
g o i n g t o c o me b a c k t o y o u u n t i l I g e t a n a n s w e r .
D R . D R E Y E R : B u t s o me t i me s t h e re i s s o me t h i n g t h a t t h e r e 's n o
answer to.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : We l l , n o , I me a n t h i s - - w e h a d
a n E P - 3 i n c i d e n t t h a t w a s i n s o me f o r m a c l a s h o f s o v e r e i g n t y .
DR. CARLSON: Yes.
D R . D R E Y E R : O k a y . Wi t h r e g a r d t o - -
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : S o w e mi g h t h a v e a n o t h e r o n e ,
and I was looking for an answer of where our potential--
D R . D R E Y E R : Wi t h r e g a r d t o t h e s p e c i f i c i s s u e o f t h e E P - 3 , I
t h i n k t h e r e 's a n e x a mp l e o f w h a t C o mmi s s i o n e r V i d e n i e k s w a s t a l k i n g
about. There we have a difference of opinion on the issue of the rights
of our airplanes and ships to transit innocent passage of waters, both
in the air and in the water.
T h e r e i s n o d i s a g r e e me n t a b o u t e x a c t l y h o w f a r o f f f r o m C h i n a 's
s h o r e t h a t c r a s h o c c u r r e d . B u t t h e re i s a d i f f e r e n c e o f o p i n i o n b e t w e e n
the Chinese and the United States about our right to be there.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Okay. I w i l l c o me b a c k .
C o mmi s s i o n e r E s p e r , s e c o n d r o u n d .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : T h a n k y o u . I 'm g o i n g t o t r y t o
p u t s o me mo r e d e t a i l i n t h e s e q u e s t i o n s s i n c e y o u t o o k my b r o a d e r
questions, but picking up where we just left off, on the EP-3 question
and the Law of the Sea.
The Law of the Sea, the text is very clear, black in letter, so it
gets to the question of are they interpreting sovereignty to advance
their own views on these issues. Based on your understanding of
C h i n a 's v i e w o f i t s s o v e r e i g n t y , h o w mi g h t w e s e e t h i s p l a y o u t i n
outer space?
M i g h t w e s e e C h i n a p u s h f o r a t r e a t y o r a n a r r a n g e me n t w h e r e b y
overhead reconnaissance is prohibited, which was the basis of their
c l a i m a g a i n s t t h e U . S . i n t h e E P - 3 i n c i d e n t , o r h o w mi g h t t h a t p l a y o u t
in other aspects of space and how we utilize space? Do you have any
views or any thoughts on that?
D R . D R E Y E R : M y v i e w o n t ha t i s y o u s h o u l d a s k t h e s e g u y s
w h o a r e g o i n g t o t e s t i f y t h i s a f t e r n o o n w h o k n o w mo r e a b o u t i t . B u t i f
I p u t my s e l f i n C h i n a 's s h o e s , I t h i n k w h a t I w o u l d s a y i s , “ l o o k , y o u
g u y s ma y h a v e b e e n f i r s t i n s p a c e , b u t t h a t d o e s n 't g i v e y o u a n y p r i o r
- 29 -
c l a i ms t o d i c t a t e t o u s w h a t ' s g o i n g o n a n d y o u h a v e a l o t o f s p a c e
d e b r i s u p t h e r e ; w h y a r e y o u c o mp l a i n i n g a b o u t o u r s p a c e d e b r i s ? ”
F r a n k l y , I t h i n k t h e y 'v e g o t a g o o d c a s e .
DR. CARLSON: And I do think that looking at previous
b e h a v i o r i n o t h e r i s s u e a r e a s , t h a t t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e r e 's a
r e l a t i v e l e v e l o f c o n s e n s u s i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y , s o i t ' s n o t
j u s t a n A me r i c a n p o s i t i o n , b u t o n e t h a t mi g h t b e s h a r e d w i t h t h e E U
a n d o t h e r a c t o r s , t h e r e 's a g r e a t e r l i k e l i h o o d o f p u l l i n g C h i n a i n t h e
d i r e c t i o n o f g e t t i n g o n b o a r d w i t h s o me s o r t o f a mu l t i l a t e r a l
a g r e e me n t . I f i t ' s u n i l a t e r a l , I t h i n k t h e y w i l l h a v e mo r e o f a t e n d e n c y
to react defensively.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: This gets into the policy
p r e s c r i p t i o n a r e a w h e r e C o mmi s s i o n e r R e i n s c h a s k e d e a r l i e r w h a t
would you propose is the overarching U.S. approach to dealing with
China on these sovereignty issues. Is it to further try to integrate them
i n t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m o f mu l t i l a t e r a l a n d b i l a t e r a l a g r e e me n t s ?
And then where do you take it from there? Continue to press
them or challenge them when they take these differing interpretations
o r t o p u s h t h e m, p r e s s t h e m o n t h e s e s o v e r e i g n t y c l a i ms ? H o w w o u l d
you approach them given their perspectives on sovereignty, the
c u l t u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s , h i s t o r i c a l c l a i ms , s o f o r t h a n d s o o n ? Wh a t w o u l d
you prescribe as the U.S. approach?
D R . C A R L S O N : I t h i n k t h a t i t 's v i a t h e u s e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l
i n s t i t u t i o n s , a s t r o n g A me r i c a n l e a d e r s h i p , a s t r o n g l y d e f i n e d p o s i t i o n ,
a n d i n c e n t i v e s o r s a n c t i o n s . S o e i t h e r i n c e n t i v e s o r p u n i s h me n t f o r
behavior that we would consider unacceptable, but within an
i n t e r n a t i o n a l s e t t i n g w h i c h g i v e s t h e m a l i t t l e b i t mo r e r o o m, o n e , t o
f e e l t h a t i t 's n o t t h a t t h e y 'r e b e i n g p u s h e d b y t h e U . S . , w h i c h t h e y w i l l
react against, and, two, it brings them into the fold.
A n d t h e n y o u d o s e e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n h u ma n r i g h t s , f o r e x a mp l e ,
t h a t o n c e C h i n a i s i n , i t d o e s n 't j u s t k i n d o f f a l l i n t o l o c k - s t e p w i t h t h e
i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y . I t a l s o c h a n g e s t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s i n w a y s t h a t
are favorable to its own positions.
B u t I t h i n k t h a t w e c a n 't e x p e c t mo r e t h a n t h a t . I t i s a c o u n t r y
w h i c h - - a n d I 'm n o t s o r t o f a c h e e r l e a d e r f o r t h i s - - b u t I t h i n k y o u l o o k
e mp i r i c a l l y , a n d i t ' s i n a s t r o n g e r p o s i t i o n t h a n i t w a s t e n o r 1 5 y e a r s
a g o . T h a t 's u n d e n i a b l e . I t 's a r e a l i t y .
So the question is then how are we going to approach them as
t h e y b e c o me s t r o n g e r , n o t r e t u r n i n g t o a r i g h t f u l p o s i t i o n i f s t r e n g t h ,
b u t a l s o n o t i n t h e r e a c t i v e p o s i t i o n t h a t t h e y w e r e i n t h e e a r l y '9 0 s o r
before? I think that policy then has to be kind of carefully calibrated
between not pushing too hard to get a sort of reaction but rather
p u l l i n g t h e m i n , a n d I t h i n k i t 's p o s s i b l e t o d o t h a t i n s p a c e a n d ma y b e
less so in cyberspace.
- 30 -
 I t h i n k c y b e r s p a c e i s d i f f i c u l t b e c a u s e t h e y 'r e g o i n g t o b e
c o n c e r n e d a b o u t r e g i me s e c u r i t y a n d t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h c y b e r s p a c e
a c t i v i t y o n t h e I n t e r n e t c o u l d l e a d t o s o me s o r t o f a d e mo c r a c y
mo v e me n t . H e r e i s p r o b a b l y l e s s r o o m f o r c o mp r o mi s e . B u t my s e n s e
i s t h a t t h e r e i s n ' t mu c h a g r e e me n t i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s w h a t t o d o
w i t h t h e I n t e r n e t a n y w a y s . Wh a t a r e t h e r u l e s ? I t ' s l i k e t h e Wi l d
We s t ; r i g h t .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Dr. Dreyer.
D R . D R E Y E R : Y e s . I f r a n k l y d o n 't l i k e t h e i d e a t h a t s o me h o w
w e h a v e t o b e s e n s i t i v e t o C h i n e s e h i s t o r y a n d C h i n e s e c u l t u r a l mo r e s .
To a large extent, this is being used against us. We h a v e t o
u n d e r s t a n d C h i n a h a d t h i s c e n t u r y o f h u mi l i a t i o n o r w e h a v e t o
understand this is the way China did it in 1402: I think that is a
conscious negotiating ploy on their part that we seem to fall for.
I d o t h i n k w e h a v e t o b e s e n s i t i v e t o t h e l e g i t i ma t e r i g h t s ,
s o v e r e i g n r i g h t s , i f y o u w i l l , a mb i g u o u s a s t h a t c o n c e p t ma y b e , o f
C h i n a , t h a t j u s t b e c a u s e w e w e r e t h e r e f i r s t , w e d o n 't g e t t o ma k e t h e
rules for people who weren’t there first. So I think they have
l e g i t i ma t e g r i e v a n c e s a g a i n s t u s i n t h a t i n s t a n c e .
If we are constantly carping about their space debris without
a d d r e s s i n g t h e p r o b l e m o f o u r o w n s p a c e d e b r i s , t h a t 's s o me w h e r e
w h e r e w e n e e d t o b e mo r e s e n s i t i v e t h a n p e r h a p s w e h a v e .
The other thing I would say about our negotiating record is that
our negotiators are often shockingly ignorant of the things they are
supposed to be negotiating about, and we really, really have to have
better trained negotiators.
I t h i n k t h e r e i s a p r o b l e m h e r e . I f y o u 'r e t r y i n g t o c o me u p w i t h
the perfectly positioned negotiator, he or she will have had to have had
86 years of education because they will have to have a law degree and
a me d i c a l d e g r e e a n d a p h y s i c s d e g r e e , k n o w l e d g e o f C h i n e s e h i s t o r y
a n d s p e a k C h i n e s e a n d s o o n . I r e a l i z e t h a t 's v e r y h a r d . B u t I t h i n k
we could be doing a better job on prepping our negotiators on just
what the real issues are --just what the prior negotiation record is. I
t h i n k t h a t 's a n a r e a i n w h i c h w e 'r e g l a r i n g l y w e a k .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Okay. Thank you both.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r
B a r t h o l o me w .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: T h a n k y o u . I t 's a v e r y
interesting discussion. C o mmi s s i o n e r R e i n s c h w i l l p r o b a b l y b e
a n n o y e d w i t h me y e t a g a i n b e c a u s e i t 's mo r e o f a c o mme n t t h a n a
q u e s t i o n t h a t I h a v e , b u t D r . C a r l s o n , I 'm r e a l l y s t r u c k b y y o u r
o p t i mi s m a n d y o u r f a i t h i n t h e f a c t t h a t s i g n i n g t h i n g s c h a n g e s
b e h a v i o r , a n d I g u e s s i f t h e r e 's a q u e s t i o n i mb e d d e d i n t h e r e , i t w o u l d
sort of be why?
- 31 -
 B e c a u s e i f y o u l o o k , f o r e x a mp l e , a t w h a t t h e 1 4 a g r e e me n t s o r
me mo r a n d a o f u n d e r s t a n d i n g o n i n t e l l e c t u a l p r o p e r t y r i g h t s s i g n e d
b e t w e e n t h e U . S . a n d C h i n a s i n c e , i t 's d i s a s t r o u s .
Y o u me n t i o n e d t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l h u ma n r i g h t s o r g a n i z a t i o n s , a n d
C h i n a 's p a r t i c i p a t i o n o n t h e g r o u n d s i n w h i c h i t i s p a r t i c i p a t i n g a n d
b e i n g a l l o w e d t o p a r t i c i p a t e i s me r e l y g i v i n g c o v e r t o o t h e r r e p r e s s i v e
r e g i me s a n d w h a t t h e y a r e d o i n g .
I t h i n k i t 's a l s o v e r y i n t e r e s t in g t h a t t h e WT O , w h i c h w a s c r e a t e d
a s a d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n f o r u m, a n d f i l i n g a c o mp l a i n t w a s s u p p o s e d t o
be about dispute resolution, the way the Chinese have approached it,
t h e y h a v e ma d e a n y b o d y f i l i n g a c o mp l a i n t i n t o i t ' s a h o s t i l e a c t n o w ,
w h i c h me a n s t h a t t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e s e f o r a i s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y
c h a n g i n g t h e i r b e h a v i o r a s mu c h a s i t i s c h a n g i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e
o r g a n i z a t i o n s , a n d t h a t mi g h t a l s o b e t o o u r d e t r i me n t . S o t e l l me
w h e r e t h i s o p t i mi s m c o me s f r o m.
D R . C A R L S O N : T h e r e I t h i n k I 'm a c t u a l l y b e i n g s o me w h a t
i n c o r r e c t l y c a t e g o r i z e d . I 'm n o t P o l l y a n n a i s h a b o u t t h i s a t a l l , a n d a s I
n o t e i n my t e s t i mo n y , i t ' s q u i t e c l e a r t h a t C h i n a h a s n 't l i v e d u p t o t h e
c o mmi t me n t s i t 's ma d e o n h u ma n r i g h t s , a n d t h a t t h e r e a r e c o mp l i a n c e
p r o b l e ms w h e n i t c o me s t o t h e WT O a g r e e me n t , a b s o l u t e l y .
A n d i t a c t u a l l y b r i n g s t o mi n d J i a Q i n g g u o , w h o i s t h e V i c e D e a n
for the School for International Studies at Peking University, he is a
v e r y w e l l - k n o w n A me r i c a w a t c h e r i n C h i n a . A n y t i me I e v e r t a l k t o
h i m, h e 's “ c a u t i o u s l y o p t i mi s t i c . ” Wh e n t h i n g s a r e b a d , h e ' s
“ c a u t i o u s l y o p t i mi s t i c . ” Wh e n t h i n g s a r e g o o d , h e i s t o o .
I t h i n k t h a t i n a w a y y o u c o u l d c a t e g o r i z e my p o s i t i o n i n t h e
s a me d e g r e e . I t h i n k t h a t o n h u ma n r i g h t s , i f y o u s t e p b a c k t o l o o k i n g
a t a 2 0 t o 3 0 y e a r t r a j e c t o r y , t h e r e h a v e b e e n s o me i mp r o v e me n t s .
T h e r e h a v e b e e n s o me c h a n g e s o n t h e g r o u n d w i t h i n C h i n a , c e r t a i n l y i f
y o u l o o k b a c k t o 1 9 7 9 i n c o mp a r i s o n t o n o w . T h a t d o e s n 't e x c u s e t h e m
f o r e v e r y t h i n g e l s e t h a t 's g o i n g o n i n t e r ms o f a r b i t r a r y d e t e n t i o n a n d
torture. I see that.
B u t I d o t h i n k , i t ma k e s s e n s e t o l o o k n o t j u s t i n t h e C h i n a c a s e ,
b u t c o mp a r a t i v e l y . Wh e n c o u n t r i e s ma k e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmi t me n t s ,
u l t i ma t e l y , n o t i n a l l c a s e s , b u t i t d o e s h a v e , i t h a s i mp l i c a t i o n s . A n d
a g a i n , I t h i n k y o u c a n ma k e a c o mp a r i s o n w i t h E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d t h e
Soviet Union, the degree to which those were purely tactical sort of
mo v e s i n t e r ms o f g e t t i n g i n v o l v e d w i t h H e l s i n k i , a n d t h e n e v e n t u a l l y
i t b r i n g s a b o u t s o me s o r t o f c h a n g e . It brings about unintended
consequences.
I P R o b v i o u s l y i s a n a r e a w h e r e c o mp l i a n c e i s r e a l l y w e a k , b u t i n
o t h e r s o r t o f r e g a r d s , I t h i n k C h i n a h a s d o n e s o me w h a t b e t t e r , a n d a l s o
f r a n k l y I t h i n k i t 's w h a t o t h e r me c h a n i s ms d o w e h a v e i n t e r ms o f
d e a l i n g w i t h t h e m. I t 's n o t t h a t t h i s i s a p e r f e c t r e c i p e . I t ' s n o t t h a t
- 32 -
i t ' s r i g h t - - i t 's t h e b e s t p o l i c y . B u t w e d o n 't h a v e a l o t a t o u r d i s p o s a l .
I d o t h i n k t h a t - - a n d t h i s i s p r o b a b l y w h e r e I 'd b e a g r e e i n g w i t h D r .
Dreyer--that we have less now than we did before.
T h e l a s t t e n y e a r s , t h e r e 's b e e n a c h a n g e , I t h i n k , i n t h i s
r e l a t i o n s h i p , a n d I t h i n k i t 's e x t r e me l y i mp o r t a n t n o t t o b e b l i n d t o
that, and then not to endorse it, but to accept it as a reality. Then
ma y b e w e n e e d t o r e t h i n k t h e w a y t h a t w e 'r e t h e n i n t e r a c t i n g w i t h t h e m
b o t h i n mu l t i l a t e r a l s e t t i n g s a n d b i l a t e r a l f o r u ms a s w e l l .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: A l l r i g h t . T h a n k y o u .
Dr. Dreyer.
D R . D R E Y E R : I s e e t h e c o mp a ri s o n w i t h H e l s i n k i a n d E a s t e r n
E u r o p e a s b e i n g i mp e r f e c t b e c a u s e w h a t i n d u c e d t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t o
s t a r t c o mp r o mi s i n g w a s t h e p e r c e p t i o n o f i t s i mmi n e n t b a n k r u p t c y . We
actually have in the not-yet-public record, but soon-to-be evidence of
G o r b a c h e v me e t i n g w i t h h i s g e n e r a l s s a y i n g t h e mo n e y i s n 't t h e r e ;
y o u 'r e g o i n g t o h a v e t o t i g h t e n y o u r b e l t s ; a n d a l s o s e p a r a t e e v i d e n c e
o f t h e mo v i n g o f t h e S o v i e t s u b ma r i n e f l e e t g r a d u a l l y b a c k w a r d s
t o w a r d t h e U S S R t o s a v e mo n e y ; o f t h e s p e e c h a t T a s h k e n t ; a n d s o o n .
T h a t w a s n 't G o r b a c h e v b e i n g M r . N i c e G u y ; t h a t w a s G o r b a c h e v
trying to save the Soviet Union from disintegrating, and his policies
w e r e c o r r e c t . T h e y w e r e s i mp l y t o o l i t t l e t o o l a t e .
C h i n a i s n o t i n t h a t p o s i t i o n . I t 's g e t t i n g s t r o n g e r e c o n o mi c a l l y ,
a s y o u p o i n t e d o u t , s o I d o n 't t h i n k t h e c o mp a r i s o n i s c o r r e c t .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: I 'd l i k e t o g i v e y o u t h e
o p p o r t u n i t y , a n d I d o n 't r e c a l l e x a c t l y w h i c h o n e o f y o u s a i d i n a n s w e r
t o C o mmi s s i o n e r We s s e l 's l i n e o f i n q u i r y o n t r a n s p a r e n c y . Dr.
C a r l s o n , I t h i n k t h e a n s w e r w e n t a l i t t l e l i k e , y o u k n o w , t h e y 'r e n o t
transparent. T h e y 'r e n o t t r a n s p a r e n t ; t h e y a r e s t a t e - o w n e d ; i t ' s
c o mp l i c a t e d ; a n d w e h a v e n o e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e y 'r e d o i n g s o me t h i n g
else.
S o i t 's a n a r g u me n t a t i v e , l o g i c a l p r o b l e m o f t h e r e 's n o
transparency; therefore, there is no evidence, and therefore we should
have the best view of their--
D R . C A R L S O N : N o . T h e r e f o r e , w e s h o u l d l o o k mo r e c a r e f u l l y
a n d t r y a n d g a t h e r i n f o r ma t i o n i n o f f i c i a l f o r u ms a n d a c a d e mi c o n e s . I
t h i n k t h e q u e s t i o n i s t h e n t o l o o k a t s p e c i f i c i s s u e s — f o r e x a mp l e ,
energy security. You guys have dealt with this here. Or whether there
i s a me r c a n t i l i s t p o l i c y i n L a t i n A me r i c a .
Rather than asserting that such a policy exists, it is necessary to
try to track down what the relationship is between various businesses
a n d mi n i s t r i e s a n d t h e r e s t . I t h i n k t h e i s s u e i s t h a t t h e s o r t o f c h a i n
o f c o mma n d i n t h e s e v a r i o u s a r e a s i s n 't w e l l k n o w n . C e r t a i n l y , e v e n
t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e l e a d e r s h i p a n d t h e mi l i t a r y i s n ' t
particularly well defined.
- 33 -
 A n d s o t h e c h a l l e n g e t h e n i s t o g a t h e r mo r e i n f o r ma t i o n a n d
b e f o r e t h a t n o t t o p r e ma t u r e l y j u mp t o a c o n c l u s i o n . I h a v e my o w n
suspicions. I doubt that there is a coherent energy security policy in
China. I have not been convinced by what I've read that there's that
mu c h c o o r d i n a t i o n g o i n g o n b e t w e e n t h e b u s i n e s s e s a n d mi n i s t r i e s t h a t
a r e i n v o l v e d . I t h i n k i t 's mo r e a c t o r s s e e k i n g p r o f i t . S o t h a t w a s t h e
s p i r i t o f t h e o b s e r v a t i o n w h i c h I ma d e .
D R . D R E Y E R : F r a n k l y , I d o n 't u n d e r s t a n d w h a t t r a n s p a r e n c y
me a n s . I 'v e b e e n r e a d i n g a b o u t i t f o r t h e l o n g e s t t i me . T h e J a p a n e s e
i n p a r t i c u l a r a r e a l w a y s u r g i n g t h e C h i n e s e t o b e mo r e t r a n s p a r e n t
a b o u t t h e i r mi l i t a r y . Wh a t d o e s t h a t me a n ? “ T e l l u s w h a t y o u i n t e n d
to do?” They’re not going to tell us that.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : N o . I 'l l g i v e y o u t h e e x a mp l e
in his line of inquiry on sovereign wealth funds. Transparency in
s o v e r e i g n w e a l t h f u n d s i s w h a t d o y o u o w n ? A n d , h o w mu c h mo n e y
y o u h a v e a n d w h o ma k e s t h e d e c i s i o n s o n h o w i t g e t s i n v e s t e d . A n d
b y t h e w a y , w h o a p p o i n t e d y o u ? Wh o a p p o i n t e d y o u ? A n d w h e r e i s
t h e n e x t t r a n c h e o f mo n e y c o mi n g f r o m a n d w h a t s h o u l d w e e x p e c t ?
S o i t 's mo r e e mp i r i c a l . L o o k , I d o n 't b e l i e v e t h a t t h e U n i t e d
S t a t e s a l w a y s ma k e s i t s t r u e i n t e n t k n o w n , n o r s h o u l d i t . O n o t h e r
o c c a s i o n s , o u r i n t e n t i s v e r y c l e a r e v e n t h o u g h i t mi g h t b e a g g r e s s i v e .
So transparency is defined differently in every different context, but
i t i s e mp i r i c a l ; i t i s i n f o r ma t i o n . I t i s i n f o r ma t i o n u p o n w h i c h o t h e r
p e o p l e ma k e d e c i s i o n s .
I h a v e a s i mp l e c o mmo n s e n s i c a l d e f i n i t i o n o f t r a n s p a r e n c y . I
d o n 't k n o w i f a n y b o d y e l s e d i f f e r s o n t h a t . D o e s a n y o n e e l s e h a v e a n y
q u e s t i o n s ? T h a n k y o u s o mu c h .
DR. DREYER: Thank you for having us.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: A very interesting discussion.
We a r e g o i n g t o t a k e a b r e a k b e f o r e w e h e a r f r o m D r . S u t t e r . H e i s n o t
expected actually till 11:15, but if he arrives earlier, we will start
earlier.
[ Wh e r e u p o n , a s h o r t r e c e s s w a s t a k e n . ]

PANEL III: CHINESE METHODS OF ADVANCING

SOVEREIGNTY BY NON-MILITARY MEANS

HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: We 'r e g o i n g t o h e a r i n a

mo me n t f r o m D r . R o b e r t S u t t e r , a p r o f e s s o r o f A s i a n S t u d i e s a t
Georgetown University, who has a distinguished, and we have the
e x a c t n u mb e r o f y e a r s , 3 3 y e a r c a r e e r w i t h i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s
g o v e r n me n t i n c l u d i n g t h e C o n g r e s s i o n a l R e s e a r c h S e r v i c e , t h e C e n t r a l
I n t e l l i g e n c e A g e n c y , t h e D e p a r t me n t o f S t a t e , a n d t h e S e n a t e F o r e i g n
R e l a t i o n s C o mmi t t e e .
- 34 -
 D r . S u t t e r w a s a t o n e t i me t h e N a t i o n a l I n t e l l i g e n c e O f f i c e r f o r
E a s t A s i a . H i s mo s t r e c e n t b o o k i s C h i n e s e F o r e i g n R e l a t i o n s : P o w e r
a n d P o l i c y S i n c e t h e C o l d Wa r .
We 'r e v e r y g l a d y o u 'r e h e r e , D r . S u t t e r . S i n c e y o u 'r e a l o n e o n
t h i s p a n e l , I w i l l e x e r c i s e my p r e r o g a t i v e a n d v i o l a t e t h e s e v e n - mi n u t e
r u l e a n d g i v e y o u t e n mi n u t e s t o s t a r t s i n c e a c t u a l l y e v e r y b o d y t a k e s
t e n mi n u t e s a n y w a y .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: S o t h a t me a n s y o u g e t 1 2 .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : A n d t h e n w e 'l l g o t h r o u g h a
round of questioning. Thank you.

STATEMENT OF DR. ROBERT G. SUTTER

VISITING PROFESSOR OF ASIAN STUDIES
SCHOOL OF FOREIGN SERVICE, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
WASHINGTON, D.C.

D R . S U T T E R : T h a n k y o u v e r y mu c h f o r t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o
t e s t i f y b e f o r e t h e C o mmi s s i o n . I 'm n o t s u r e I w i l l t a k e my f u l l s e v e n
mi n u t e s , b u t t h i s i s my s t a t e me n t .
M y p r e p a r e d s t a t e me n t t h a t y o u h a v e f o c u s e s o n w h y C h i n a ' s
a d mi n i s t r a t i o n s e e s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a s t h e ma i n d a n g e r t o i t s
s o v e r e i g n s p a c e a n d w h a t n o n - mi l i t a r y me t h o d s C h i n a u s e s t o p r o t e c t
and advance its sovereign space.
China has a long history as an aggrieved power, a country whose
sovereignty has been violated by other powers. This sense of
v i c t i mi z a t i o n r e ma i n s s t r o n g t o d a y w i t h T a i w a n p r o t e c t e d b y t h e
United States heading the list of what China sees as gross violations of
Chinese sovereignty.
China also has a consistent tendency to see larger powers along
i t s p e r i p h e r y a s r e a l o r p o t e n t i a l t h r e a t s t o C h i n a 's s o v e r e i g n t y . T h e
r e c o r d o f t h e P e o p l e 's R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a i n b o t h t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y
M a o i s t p e r i o d a n d t h e r e f o r m p e r i o d s i n c e M a o 's d e a t h i n 1 9 7 6 s h o w s
Chinese leaders giving top priority in foreign affairs to dealing with
real or potential dangers and pressures posed by the United States or
the Soviet Union and their allies and associates in Asia.
T o d e a l w i t h t h i s s i t u a t i o n a n d f o r o t h e r r e a s o n s , C h i n a 's l e a d e r s
h a v e l o n g g i v e n p r i o r i t y t o d e v e l o p i n g C h i n a 's c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l
p o w e r . C h i n a s e e k s s t r o n g mi l i t a r y p o w e r b a c k e d b y e c o n o mi c p o w e r ,
political unity and firm will in foreign affairs in order to protect its
existing sovereignty and to advance its sovereign space.
The record of Chinese foreign policy shows that China has
adjusted its tactics and approaches to preserving and advancing
C h i n a 's s o v e r e i g n s p a c e . It has done so in light of changed
c i r c u ms t a n c e s t h a t a f f e c t C h i n e s e c a lc u l a t i o n s o f t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s
- 35 -
o f u s i n g mi l i t a r y a n d v a r i o u s n o n - mi l i t a r y me a n s .
I n t h e p o s t - C o l d Wa r p e r i o d , C h i n a s o u g h t t o p r e s e r v e a n d
d e v e l o p e c o n o mi c a n d o t h e r a d v a n t a g e o u s t i e s w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ,
but China was faced with strong U.S. pressure following the
T i a n a n me n c r a c k d o w n o f 1 9 8 9 .
Throughout the 1990s, China adopted a vocal and often
confrontational posture in reaction to U.S. pressure. Its strong
r h e t o r i c a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c t i v i s m a g a i n s t U . S . h e g e mo n i s m w a s
c o mp l e me n t e d b y a C h i n e s e mi l i t a r y b u i l d - u p t h a t a d v a n c e d f o l l o w i n g
the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1995-1996 and focused on dealing with the
U.S. forces in a Taiwan conflict.
B y t h e e n d o f t h e d e c a d e , C h i n e s e l e a d e r s c a me t o s e e t h i s
p u b l i c l y c o n f r o n t a t i o n a l a p p r o a c h a s c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e . B y mi d - 2 0 0 1 ,
b e f o r e 9 / 1 1 , t h e y s w i t c h e d t o a mo r e a c c o mmo d a t i n g p u b l i c C h i n e s e
posture toward the United States that we see today. China has not
mo d e r a t e d i t s s t r o n g mi l i t a r y b u i l d - u p f o c u s e d o n d e a l i n g w i t h U . S .
forces in a Taiwan contingency, but it has played down public
r e s i s t a n c e t o U . S . h e g e mo n i s m.
Wh a t h a s e me r g e d i s a t y p e o f G u l l i v e r s t r a t e g y C h i n a u s e s t o t i e
down the perceived threats to its sovereignty and interests posed by
the United States. Chinese leaders foster ever-greater Chinese-U.S.
e c o n o mi c i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e , w h i c h h a s t h e b e n e f i t o f c u r b i n g p o s s i b l e
U . S . mo v e s t o p r e s s u r e C h i n a .
C h i n a b u i l d s e v e r - g r e a t e r e c o n o mi c i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e a mo n g
Asian neighbors including close allies of the United States with the
r e s u l t t h a t t h e s e c o u n t r i e s a r e mo r e s u p p o r t i v e o f C h i n a a n d l e s s l i k e l y
to join with the United States in possible efforts to pressure China.
Very active, adroit, and generally quite positive Chinese
d i p l o ma c y s t r e n g t h e n s w e b s o f r e l a t io n s h i p s w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d
w i t h C h i n a 's n e i g h b o r s i n b i l a t e r a l a n d mu l t i l a t e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s .
These curb possible U.S. pressure against China and reduce the
danger that Asian countries will cooperate with U.S. pressure against
China.
C h i n a 's good-neighbor policies and growing e c o n o mi c
i mp o r t a n c e a l s o h a v e a d v a n c e d C h i na ' s o v e r a l l i n f l u e n c e i n A s i a a t a
t i me o f p e r c e i v e d U . S . i n a t t e n t i o n a n d d e c l i n e i n A s i a , a n d t h e y h a v e
e s t a b l i s h e d n o r ms a n d p r a c t i c e s t h a t ma k e i t l e s s l i k e l y f o r A s i a n
n e i g h b o r s t o c h a l l e n g e C h i n e s e t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i ms a n d s o v e r e i g n s p a c e .
N o w , i t 's i mp o r t a n t t o r e me mb e r t h a t i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e , b y
definition, works two ways. Thus, Chinese efforts to foster positive
interdependence as a type of Gulliver strategy against U.S. power and
pressure have served the interests of U.S. and Asian powers seeking to
engage China.
In particular, the United States and Asian powers following
- 36 -
Gulliver strategies of their own against China. They seek to use
e n g a g e me n t t o b u i l d w e b s o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h C h i n a w h i c h w i l l
constrain Chinese tendencies toward aggressive or disruptive behavior
in Asian and world affairs.
I n s u m, t h e G u l l i v e r s t r a t e g i e s o f C h i n a o n t h e o n e h a n d a n d t h e
U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d ma n y o f C h i n a 's n e i g h b o r s o n t h e o t h e r s e e m a t
present to reinforce stability in Asia and seem to be in the overall
interest of the United States.
Now, looking to the future, prudent U.S. policy should be aware
t h a t c h a n g i n g c i r c u ms t a n c e s c o u l d c h a n g e t h e d i r e c t i o n o f C h i n a 's
recent tactics in protecting and advancing its sovereign space.
C h i n a r e ma i n s a d i s s a t i s f i e d a n d a g g r i e v e d p o w e r a s f a r a s i t s
s o v e r e i g n t y i s c o n c e r n e d . O n t h e o n e h a n d , C h i n a 's c u r r e n t p o s i t i v e
approach that builds interdependence with the United States and
C h i n a 's n e i g h b o r s ma y d e e p e n a n d ma k e d e a l i n g w i t h s e n s i t i v e i s s u e s
like Taiwan peacefully through negotiations easier in the future.
O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , C h i n a c o n t i n u e s i t s r a p i d mi l i t a r y b u i l d - u p
focused on dealing with the United States in a Taiwan contingency. In
particular, there is no guarantee that changes in the balance of forces
and influence in Asia with China rising to regional leadership, as the
U n i t e d S t a t e s s e e ms l e s s p r o mi n e n t a n d i n f l u e n t i a l , w o n 't p r o mp t
C h i n a 's l e a d e r s t o a d o p t mo r e c o e r c i v e me a n s a g a i n s t T a i w a n a n d i n
p u r s u i t o f g r e a t e r p o w e r a n d p o s s i b l e d o mi n a n c e i n A s i a .
I thank you for your attention. I look forward to your questions.
[ T h e s t a t e me n t f o l l o w s : ]

Prepared Statement of Dr. Robert G. Sutter

P r o f e s s o r o f A s i a n S t u d i e s , G e o r g e t o wn U n i v e r s i t y
Washington, D.C.

Thank you for the opportunity to testify before the Commission.

Purpose and overview of findings

At the request of the Commission, this testimony assesses some features of China’s rise and interaction
with Asia in the post cold war period that demonstrate how China protects what the Commission calls
China’s “sovereign space” with non-military means and what these Chinese protective actions mean for US
interests, especially regarding Asian stability.

The assessment shows that the Chinese administration has focused on the United States as the leading
danger to its sovereignty in the post cold war period. In response, and as part of recent Chinese rising
economic, diplomatic and other interaction around China’s periphery, the Chinese administration has
adopted measures to create webs of relationships and buffer zones around China that act as a sort of
“Gulliver strategy” designed to tie down and curb real or suspected US efforts to impinge on Chinese
sovereignty.

- 37 -
These Chinese efforts coincide with roughly similar Gulliver strategies adopted by many of China’s Asian
neighbors and the United States that seek to bind the Chinese administration in interdependent
relationships, institutions, agreements, and norms that act to preclude disruptive Chinese practices of the
past and promote greater stability in Asia. Up to now, the overall effect of the post cold war Chinese
efforts, in conjunction with the efforts of China’s neighbors and the United States, has been to increase
stability and reduce the danger of confrontation in Asia. This trend has been in the interests of the United
States.

Looking out, Chinese foreign policy decision making, and the decision making of the United States and
China’s neighbors, remains contingent on circumstances affecting the Chinese administration’s and the
other governments’ calculus of the costs and benefits of specific courses of action. Thus, if circumstances
were to change in ways that prompted China or others to see greater overall benefit in assertive or
disruptive actions, differences over Taiwan and some other territorial disputes head the list of possible
causes for confrontation and conflict over sovereignty involving China, the United States, and others.

China’s focus on superpower threat

Chinese concerns with sovereignty have involved various countries which have territorial disputes with
China, and Chinese concerns with sovereignty also have involved the actions by governments and other
foreign forces that intrude on Chinese internal affairs and limit the Chinese administration’s freedom of
action at home and abroad. However, in the history of the People’s Republic of China, it seems clear that
the greatest threats to China’s “sovereign space” have been seen as coming from hostile powers larger than
China—superpowers--endeavoring to establish bases of power and influence around China’s periphery as
means to contain and intimidate China.

This sense of threat to Chinese sovereignty was evident during the Maoist period (1949-1976) of strong
emphasis on ideology and revolution at home and abroad, and also was evident during much of the reform
period led by Deng Xiaoping. (Deng began the reform period two years after Mao’s death in 1976; Deng
remained China’s key leader until a few years before he died in 1997). Maoist China for decades saw the
main threat to China’s sovereignty posed by the United States and the US-led containment system in Asia.
In the early 1970s, the US opening to China coincided with the emergence of the Soviet Union as the main
threat to China’s sovereignty and security. Though Deng Xiaoping focused on economic reform at home
and abroad, his main foreign policy efforts were maneuvers and measures to prevent the Soviet Union from
dominating China and otherwise intruding on China’s sovereignty.

Post cold war focus on the US threat to China’s sovereignty

The end of the cold war and collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and early 1990s did not end the
Chinese administration’s concern with great power threats to China’s sovereignty. Following the
Tiananmen incident of 1989, the United States intruded much more in Chinese internal affairs, pressing for
changes that were seen as a direct threat to the Chinese Communist Party leadership’s determination to
sustain one party rule in China. The United States also advanced its support for Taiwan and for the Dalai
Lama of Tibet, and passed legislation registering opposition to Chinese administration practices in Hong
Kong. The United States took a firm stance at odds with China’s sovereignty in 1995 by opposing Chinese
efforts to expand territorial control in the disputed Spratly Islands, and in 1996 by sending two carrier
battle groups to the Taiwan area in the wake of months of Chinese live-fire exercises and ballistic missile
tests aimed at intimidating Taiwan’s leadership. The United States endeavored to strengthen US security
relations with Japan under the so-called Nye initiative begun in the mid-1990s that seemed directed at
China, among others.

The Chinese administration sustained a strong and steady buildup of military forces beginning in the 1990s
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and lasting up to the present, but its efforts at this time to protect China’s sovereignty and other goals also
focused heavily on using non-military means to protect China’s sovereignty. Highlights of China’s non-
military efforts included the following:

• China’s growing importance as an economic trader and recipient of foreign investment. China’s
economic ties with Asian neighbors grew enormously as overall Chinese trade grew at twice the
pace of the double digit growth registered by China’s economy. By the middle of the first decade
of the 21st century, China was the largest trading partner with most important Asian economies
and a favorite destination for foreign investment from those countries.
• China’s promoting good relations with neighboring states through effective and attentive Chinese
bilateral and multilateral diplomacy. China’s accommodating and attentive diplomacy and
frequent exchanges of high-level leaders’ visits emphasized common ground between China and
most regional governments and placed salient differences behind a curtain of positive
communiqués, press releases and leadership rhetoric. The Chinese administration also put aside
past suspicion of Asian multilateral groups and endeavored to use the burgeoning range of
regional organizations to win good will from China’s neighbors and to use the regional bodies to
check or entangle possible pressure or initiatives with negative implications for China coming
from the United States or elsewhere.

During the 1990s up to mid 2001, the Chinese administration was explicit in repeated public attacks by
authoritative Chinese media and officials’ statements that the United States—US “hegemonism”—was the
main foreign threat to Chinese sovereignty and other interests. At this time, the Chinese administration’s
accommodating stance toward and burgeoning economic and diplomatic interaction with most neighbors
was complemented by harsh injunctions against the “cold war thinking” prevalent in Washington that
China saw as endeavoring to strengthen the US military presence and alliance structure in Asia as means to
constrain China’s rise in power and influence.

China’s recent accommodating approach to the United States—a Gulliver strategy

Over time, the Chinese administration found their hard line against the United States was unattractive to
many Asian neighbors who did not want to be forced to choose between China and the United States. They
also came to judge that such an approach was counterproductive for Chinese interests vis-à-vis the United
States. In the immediate cold war period, Chinese strategists had expected the United States to decline in
world power and influence. They had expected a “multi polar” world order to emerge, with China and
other world power centers resisting and wearing down US “hegemonism” and thereby creating a new order
more beneficial to China’s freedom of maneuver at home and abroad. In the event, Chinese strategists
found this did not happen as the United States loomed more powerful than ever as the 1990s developed.

One Chinese strategist summarized the change in Chinese thinking this way. He said that multipolarity
required the other world power centers to resist the US superpower. China found that many of these power
centers publicly advocated multipolarity but in practice they were unwilling to resist US power; more often
than not they saw their interests best served by collaborating with the United States. In this situation, China
did not want to be alone in resisting US hegemonism. So the Chinese administration decided to shift to a
more accommodating stance toward the United States as a better way to manage the danger to Chinese
sovereignty posed by US hegemonism, and to sustain and advance the economic and other Chinese
relationships with the United States that were important for China’s stability and development.

As a result of these calculations, the Chinese administration switched to a much more accommodating
public posture toward the United States by mid-2001, well before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack
on America. Chinese officials made clear privately that they still opposed US hegemonism but they
affirmed that the Chinese administration would generally refrain from public criticism of the United States
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in the interests of fostering improved Chinese relations with Washington as well as with China’s Asian
neighbors.

They also made clear that China intended to use its increased economic and diplomatic engagement with
Asian neighbors and with the United States as a means to create a buffer zone of states around China’s
periphery and to entangle the United States in bilateral and multilateral relationships and agreements. Both
the buffer zone and the entangling relationships were seen to make US pressure against Chinese
sovereignty less likely to occur, and if it did occur, less likely to be successful. Thus, few of China’s
neighbors were seen likely to join in any US effort to contain China’s rise in Asia, or impinge on Chinese
sovereignty over Taiwan and in other ways, as the neighbors would not want to sacrifice their growing
positive equities in economic and diplomatic relations with China in following such a hard line US stance.
And as China fostered economic interdependence with the United States and became more important to the
United States in managing the crisis caused by North Korea nuclear weapons development and other
international issues, the likelihood of a US government adopting a hard line against China seemed to
decline. In effect, the zone and the relationships were at the heart of a Chinese “Gulliver strategy” designed
to safeguard China’s sovereign space against US pressure and power.

US, Asian Gulliver strategies toward China

Coincidentally, many of China’s neighbors and the United States sought to use their growing engagement
with China as Gulliver strategies of their own. Their efforts had the effect of enmeshing China in growing
interdependent relationships, commitments, and norms that reduced the chances of China returning to the
disruptive and assertive policies and practices China often followed in the region during the 1950s through
the 1980s. Specialists saw the Southeast Asian countries and their main regional organization the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) following such an approach toward China since the
early 1990s. At the same time, the US Council of Foreign Relations saw US engagement as premised on
this kind of enmeshment of China in webs of interdependent relationships designed to curb Chinese
aggression and disruption of regional stability.

Implications of the respective “Gulliver strategies” for Asian stability

In general, China’s non-military efforts to secure its sovereignty against the danger seen posed by the
United States in Asia in the post cold war period have complemented the efforts by many of China’s Asian
neighbors and the United States to use growing bilateral and multilateral engagement with China as means
to reduce chances of disruptive and aggressive Chinese behavior in Asia. These trends have strengthened
stability in Asia and appear to be in the interests of the United States.

Outlook

Looking out, these trends toward interdependence and collaboration continue but there is no guarantee that
these trends will develop without interruption. The dynamics in post cold war Asia are fluid.
Circumstances change, sometimes rapidly. China’s post cold decision making in foreign affairs seems best
understood as one contingent on and influenced by the perceived costs and benefits for Chinese interests
amid prevailing circumstances. The decision making of the United States and China’s neighbors also may
be best understood as contingent on circumstances affecting those governments’ calculus of the costs and
benefits of specific courses of action. If prevailing circumstances were to change, China’s calculus of costs
and benefits could change. Thus, Taiwan’s moves toward greater independence or assertive actions by
Japan, the United States or others intruding on Chinese territory or other sovereign interests could prompt
the Chinese leadership to break the entangling webs of interdependence and take forceful actions to protect
and preserve vital interests in national sovereignty. Moreover, the willingness and ability of the United
States and China’s neighbors to back up their engagements with China with economic, political, and
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military power and resolve also seem important in deterring aggressive or assertive Chinese actions in
Asia. Were US or other key powers to decline in ability and resolve, the chances of China taking
aggressive action to secure territorial or other sovereign interests might increase.

In sum, China’s use of non military means to preserve and enhance its sovereign space meshes with
Gulliver strategies of the United States and many of China’s Asian neighbors. The result is stabilizing and
beneficial for US interests. However, the convergence of these respective Gulliver strategies remains
fragile and subject to change.

P a n e l I I I : D i s c u s s i o n , Q u e s t i o n s a n d A n s we r s

HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: T h a n k y o u v e r y mu c h .

C o mmi s s i o n e r E s p e r .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you for your opening
r e ma r k s , D r . S u t t e r . V e r y i n t e r e s t i n g . Y o u o u t l i n e d t h e G u l l i v e r
s t r a t e g y , s o t o s p e a k , w h e r e b y C h i n a a t t e mp t s t o e n g a g e t h e U n i t e d
States through greater integration, but what other strategies and
t e c h n i q u e s mi g h t B e i j i n g p u r s u e , n o n - mi l i t a r y o n e s , i n o r d e r t o
advance its sovereignty?
T h i s i s t h e f u n d a me n t a l q u e s t i o n f o r t h e p a n e l t o d a y . Wh a t o t h e r
me t h o d s mi g h t w e s e e o r h a v e y o u s e e n t h e m u s e h i s t o r i c a l l y t o
advance or protect their sovereignty?
DR. SUTTER: History is full of episodes of aggressive Chinese
behavior toward the region, particularly in the Maoist period. My
p o i n t a n d my s e n s e o f w h a t 's h a p p e n i n g n o w i s t h a t C h i n a 's a p p r o a c h
t o t h e A s i a n r e g i o n i s n o t o n l y r e f l e c t i v e o f C h i n a 's c o n f i d e n c e i n i t s
e c o n o mi c g r o w t h a n d i t s a d r o i t d i p l o ma c y , b u t i t 's a l s o v e r y d e f e n s i v e .
And so to have aggressive aspects to their approach to the region
i s d i f f i c u l t t o d o a t t h i s t i me . T h e y 'r e n o t i n a c o mma n d p o s i t i o n i n
my j u d g me n t . S p e c i a l i s t s w i l l d i s a g r e e o n t h i s i s s u e . I n o t h e r w o r d s ,
s o me s e e C h i n a v e r y c o n f i d e n t , o n t h e ma r c h , b u t o t h e r s w i l l s a y
t h e r e 's a l o t o f c a u s e f o r d i f f i d e n c e a n d u n c e r t a i n t y i n C h i n a , a n d I 'm
mo r e o n t h e l a t t e r s i d e .
I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e ma i n t h i n g t h e y w o r r y a b o u t i s U . S . p o w e r .
The United States is very powerful in Asia-Pacific, and so to try an
offensive approach, an aggressive approach--they did try it to a degree
in the 1990s, and it failed. This was a very overt effort to be assertive
a g a i n s t U . S . p o w e r a n d p r e s s u r e , a n d s o I t e n d t o s a y f o r t h e t i me
b e i n g t h i s i s n 't g o i n g t o h a p p e n .
T h e y 'r e s o r t o f s t u c k w i t h t h i s G u l l i v e r s t r a t e g y . Wo u l d t h e y
l i k e t o h a v e a mo r e a s s e r t i v e p o l i c y t o w a r d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d t o
expand China’s sovereign space in the region? I think so. Can they do
it? No. My sense is they recognize this would be counterproductive if
they tried.
And so what could they do? They could do all sorts of things.
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They could have aggressive approaches toward Taiwan. They could
have aggressive approaches toward the South China Sea. They could
be very assertive vis-à-vis Japan and other things. There is all sorts of
t h i n g s t h e y c o u l d d o , b u t I t h i n k t h e c i r c u ms t a n c e s a n d t h e c o s t a n d
benefits as seen from the Chinese leadership are such that the ability
t o d o s o i s q u i t e l i mi t e d .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : B u t mi g h t y o u b e a b l e t o c a t a l o g
a standard set of practices that they use to effect their positions? For
e x a mp l e , w i t h r e g a r d t o C h i n a 's i ma g e a b r o a d , i n c l u d i n g h u ma n r i g h t s ,
t h e y p u r s u e d t h e O l y mp i c s . A c o u p l e y e a r s a g o w i t h r e g a r d t o T a i w a n ,
t h e y p a s s e d d o me s t i c l e g i s l a t i o n t h a t p r e s u ma b l y c o u l d b e a c a u s e f o r
action against Taiwan. T h o s e a r e j u s t t w o e x a mp l e s . O n e , v e r y
l e g a l i s t i c ; t h e o t h e r , a r g u a b l y a s t r a t e g i c c o mmu n i c a t i o n s p l a y o r t h e
ma r k e t i n g o f C h i n a .
DR. SUTTER: Uh-huh.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Have you seen these activities on
other issue areas, and what else would you include in that set of non-
mi l i t a r y me a n s , a n d t h e n t h e u l t i ma t e q u e s t i o n , h o w mi g h t w e s e e t h e m
e mp l o y t h e s e t e c h n i q u e s w i t h r e g a r d t o c y b e r s p a c e a n d o u t e r s p a c e ?
DR. SUTTER: I t ' s a v e r y c o mp l i c a t e d q u e s t i o n t h a t y o u ' r e
a s k i n g , a n d I 'l l d o t h e b e s t I c a n t o a n s w e r i t . I g u e s s t h e t h i n g t h a t
I 'm i mp r e s s e d w i t h i s h o w t h e C h i n e s e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n c o n s t a n t l y h a s t o
a d j u s t t o c h a n g i n g c i r c u ms t a n c e s .
The first big change that happened in the early part of this
decade is energy security. The Chinese had to adjust to this. They
b e c a me s o d e p e n d e n t o n e n e r g y a n d t h e y n e e d e d s o mu c h mo r e e n e r g y
b e c a u s e t h e y 'r e p u t t i n g s o mu c h e f f o r t i n t o h i g h - e n e r g y i n d u s t r i e s i n
China, this caught them by surprise, and so they had to adjust to this
s i t u a t i o n i n a w a y t h a t t h i s i s a r e a l s e c u r i t y d i l e mma f o r t h e m b e c a u s e
t h e y d o n 't c o n t r o l t h e l i n e s o f c o mmu n i c a t i o n t h a t t h e i r e n e r g y t h a t
c o me s f r o m a b r o a d c o me s t h r o u g h .
How do they deal with that situation? They have to adjust to
this, and they have tactics for dealing with the sort of thing which is
b a s i c a l l y t r y i n g t o a v o i d ma j o r c o mmi t me n t s o r ma j o r r i s k s o r ma j o r
c o s t s t h a t w o u l d c h a n g e b a s i c a l l y w h a t t h e y s e e f o r t h e t i me b e i n g a s
on the whole an advantageous position for China in the region and in
t h e w o r l d . I t h i n k t h e y 'r e b a s i c a l l y s a t i s f i e d w i t h w h a t t h e y 'r e g e t t i n g
from the world to this point.
T h e y 'r e n o t s a t i s f i e d a b o u t t h e i r s o v e r e i g n t y , b u t b a s i c a l l y f o r
t h e t i me b e i n g t h e y 'r e s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e i r p o s i t i o n .
T h e l a t e s t t h i n g t h a t 's c o me d o w n t h e p i k e , a n d t h i s i s j u s t i n t h e
l a s t y e a r o r s o , i s c l i ma t e c h a n g e . H o w a r e t h e y g o i n g t o p o s i t i o n
t h e ms e l v e s o n c l i ma t e c h a n g e ? S o t h i s n o t i o n t h a t p e o p l e h a v e t h a t t h e
Chinese leaders have this strategy, they have this way of thinking that
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s o me h o w i s g o i n g t o t e l l y o u w h a t t h e y 'r e g o i n g t o d o , I t h i n k i t i s n 't
borne out by the record of what you see the Chinese doing.
Y o u s e e t h e C h i n e s e o f t e n s c r a mb l i n g . Y o u k n o w w h a t I 'm
s a y i n g b y s c r a mb l i n g ? T h e y 'r e t r y i n g t o d e a l w i t h c h a n g e d
c i r c u ms t a n c e s t h a t t h e y d o n ' t c o n t r o l a n d t h i s i s a b i g d e t e r mi n a n t o f
h o w t h e y a c t , a n d t h e s e t w o e x a mp l e s I 'v e j u s t g i v e n y o u a r e j u s t
t h i n g s t h a t i f I w e r e d o i n g a b o o k a b o u t C h i n a i n 1 9 9 9 , I w o u l d n 't h a v e
p u t t h i s i n t h e b o o k . C l i ma t e c h a n g e ? I w o u l d n 't p u t t h a t i n t h e r e .
And energy security? Probably not.
B u t t h e s e t h i n g s h a v e j u s t , t h e s e a r e f u n d a me n t a l l y i mp o r t a n t f o r
the position of China in the region, for the position of China in the
w o r l d , a n d s o t h e y s c r a mb l e t o c o me u p w i t h e f f e c t i v e s t r a t e g i e s t o
d e a l w i t h t h i s s i t u a t i o n . S o my p o i n t i s t h a t A s i a n c o n d i t i o n s a r e
c h a n g i n g a n d t h e y w i l l h a v e t o c o n t i n u e t o a d j u s t . A n d t h e y d o n 't
control it.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Okay. Thank you.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r We s s e l .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : T h a n k y o u , D r . S u t t e r , f o r b e i n g
here today. I 'd l i k e t o a s k s o me q u e s t i o n s a b o u t y o u r l i t e r a t u r e
r e f e r e n c e , t h e G u l l i v e r . I g u e s s t h a t w o u l d me a n t h a t t h e C h i n e s e v i e w
t h e ms e l v e s a s t h e L i l l i p u t i a n s i n t h i s e n d e a v o r .
DR. SUTTER: Uh-huh. You don't want to take this too far, sir.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : N o , I 'm n o t t a k i n g i t t o o f a r , b u t - -
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : 1 . 3 b i l l i o n o f t h e m.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : 1 . 3 . Y e s , t h a t 's t r u e . M y q u e s t i o n
i s w e 'v e s e e n , a n d c l e a r l y w e 'r e i n a p o l i t i c a l t i me r i g h t n o w , b u t
increasing concerns in the U.S. about the power of China, the
mi g r a t i o n o f ma n u f a c t u r i n g , e t c e t e r a .
Has the changing perception of the public here in any way
affected Chinese views as to their sovereignty, the tools, as
C o mmi s s i o n e r E s p e r w a s j u s t t a l k i n g a b o u t ? D o t h e y u n d e r s t a n d t h a t
ma n y d o n 't v i e w o u r s e l v e s a s t h e G u l l i v e r a n y mo r e b u t ma y b e a l o t o f
Lilliputians on both sides of the Pacific?
D R . S U T T E R : T h a n k y o u f o r y o u r q u e s t i o n . Wh e n I a s s e s s t h i s
k i n d o f s i t u a t i o n , I d o n 't s e e f u n d a me n t a l c h a n g e i n h o w t h e C h i n e s e
view the United States at this point.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : D o t h e y u n d e r s t a n d - -
DR. SUTTER: They understand us very well.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : B u t t h e y u n d e r s t a n d t h e c h a n g i n g
viewpoint?
DR. SUTTER: T h e v i e w i n t he U n i t e d S t a t e s , y e s , t h e y
u n d e r s t a n d t h i s v e r y w e l l . A n d s o me t i me s t h e y t h i n k i t ' s a t r i c k . T h e y
say this. I just read a piece by the Foreign Affairs Journal that said
they claim that the CIA uses personal power parity to designate
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C h i n a 's e c o n o mi c p o w e r b e c a u s e i t 's a t r a p t o g e t C h i n a t o d o mo r e i n
c o mmi t me n t s t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i d a n d t o p a y mo r e i n t h e U . N . a n d
o t h e r s u c h t h i n g s , t h a t t h i s w a s a s c h e me f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o d o
this.
N o w , t h i s i s p r o b a b l y j u s t o n e e x t r e me v i e w , b u t I t h i n k t h e y
d i s mi s s t h i s k i n d o f t a l k . F r a n k l y , I t h i n k t h e y d o i t w i t h g o o d
j u s t i f i c a t i o n , i n my o w n j u d g me n t . A s a s p e c i a l i s t l o o k i n g a t t h i s
issue, the opinion in the United States is one thing; the actual reality
o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i s s o me t h i n g e l s e i t s e e ms t o me .
Several of you have been through these cycles before.
A me r i c a n s g e t v e r y e x c i t e d a b o u t r i s i n g p o w e r s a n d g e t v e r y n e r v o u s
a b o u t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n t h a t c o n t e x t , a n d w e 'r e i n a n e me r g i n g
r e c e s s i o n . T h i s i s a t i me t h a t w e o f t e n g e t t h i s w a y . A n d t h e r e a r e
r e a l i t i e s h e r e . T h e r e 's n o q u e s t i o n a b o u t t h a t . B i g r e a l i t i e s . C h i n a i s
r i s i n g , b u t t h e p o i n t I w o u l d r a i s e h e r e i s t h a t I ' v e e x a mi n e d t h i s v e r y
c a r e f u l l y . U . S . p o w e r i s o v e r w h e l mi n g v i s - à - v i s C h i n a , a n d t h e t h i n g s
I l o o k f o r t h a t mi g h t h e l p y o u i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g - - a t l e a s t h o w I f e e l
a b o u t t h i s - - l o o k f o r C h i n a t o u n d e r t a k e ma j o r c o mmi t me n t , ma j o r c o s t ,
ma j o r r i s k i n a r e a s t h a t t h e y w o u l d n 't o r d i n a r i l y d o i t .
T h e y d o n 't d o t h i s . T h e y d o n 't d o t h i s a t a l l . A n d t h e r e 's o n l y
o n e p o w e r i n A s i a t h a t t a k e s ma j o r c o s t s , ma j o r r i s k s a n d ma j o r
c o mmi t me n t s , b o t h i n t h e s e c u r i t y a r e a a n d i n t h e e c o n o mi c a r e a , a n d
t h a t 's t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , a n d A s i a n g o v e r n me n t l e a d e r s - - a n d I 'v e t a l k e d
to 175 of them over the last four years--they understand this
c o mp l e t e l y , a n d t h e y s a y w e n e e d t h i s .
I c a n g o i n t o c h a p t e r a n d v e r s e o n w h y t h e y n e e d i t , b u t i t s e e ms
t o me t h e C h i n e s e u n d e r s t a n d t h i s , t o o . T h e C h i n e s e o f f i c i a l s I 'v e
t a l k e d t o , t h e y u n d e r s t a n d t h i s t o o , a n d I d o n 't t h i n k i t 's j u s t s p i n . I 'm
a n o l d C I A a n a l y s t . I k n o w w h a t d e n i a l a n d d e c e p t i o n i s . I t ma y b e
p a r t l y d e n i a l a n d p e r c e p t i o n , b u t I t h i n k i t 's r e a l i t y a s w e l l .
Wh a t I s e e c o mi n g f r o m C h i n a i s t h a t , n o , t h e y 'v e ma d e t h i s
change as of 2001, change in that they said the U.S. is going to be the
d o mi n a n t p o w e r f o r s o me t i me t o c o me ; w e 'r e w o r k i n g i n t h a t c o n t e x t ;
t h i s i s n 't c h a n g i n g f u n d a me n t a l l y . A n d t h u s f a r I h a v e n 't s e e n a n y
indication that they see a big change.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : S o t h a t w o u l d l e a d me t o b e l i e v e
t h a t a n y c l a i ms o f u n f a i r n e s s - - a n d t h i s g o e s b a c k , a s y o u 'r e p o i n t i n g
out, historically, issues with Japan that the U.S. has had in rise, fall,
and all the various other historical approaches--that our belief that
trade is unfair and unbalanced is an inappropriate approach for us to
t a k e i n t h a t t h e y a r e a r i s i n g p o w e r w h o d e s e r v e s mo r e .
F o r e x a mp l e , g l o b a l w a r mi n g . T h e y b e l i e v e t h a t w e 'v e b e e n a b l e
t o h a r v e s t ma n y o f t h e b e n e f i t s a n d i t 's n o w t h e i r t u r n . A m I c o r r e c t ?
DR. SUTTER: No, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying be
- 44 -
confident of U.S. power.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : I a m c o n f i d e n t o f U . S . p o w e r . I ' m
interested in how China perceives us at this point and our current
thinking.
DR. SUTTER: On dealing with issues like trade unfairness?
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : Y e s . Y e s .
DR. SUTTER: I think they're worried. I think they're quite
worried about the trends in the United States. I think this is the key
a r e a t h a t t h e y 'r e mo s t w o r r i e d a b o u t b e c a u s e t h e y s e e m t o h a v e a g o o d
r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n , b u t t h i s i s s o me t h i n g t h a t 's
c o mi n g f r o m w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y - - t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s - - t h i s p r e s s u r e f o r
fair trade rather than free trade, and I think they worry about this
b e c a u s e i t 's v e r y h a r d t o c o n t r o l .
If the U.S. goes into a recession, this is even harder to control
p o l i t i c a l l y , a n d s o t h e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n , e v e n i f i t 's a f r e e t r a d e
a d mi n i s t r a t i o n l i k e t h e B u s h a d mi n i s t r a t i o n , c a n ' t c o n t r o l t h i s v e r y
w e l l . S o t h e y w o r r y a b o u t t h a t e l e me n t .
I t h i n k o n t h e w h o l e t h e y f e e l t h e r e 's a s o r t o f s t a s i s i n U . S . -
C h i n a r e l a t i o n s w h i c h i s b a s i c a l l y s at i s f a c t o r y f o r t h e m, a n d t h e y s e e i t
a s s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r t h e B u s h a d mi n i s t r a t i o n a s w e l l . Both sides
e mp h a s i z e t h e p o s i t i v e ; t h e y t e n d t o p u t a s i d e , n o t g i v e a l o t o f
e mp h a s i s t o , t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n o u r c o u n t r i e s , w h i c h a r e v e r y
l o n g a n d v e r y ma n y , a n d o n t h e w h o l e t h a t w o r k s .
B u t i n t h i s a r e a i t d o e s n 't w o r k s o w e l l , a n d t h i s i s g e t t i n g w o r s e
from their point of view. And so the pressures, yes, I think they
a n t i c i p a t e t h e r e c o u l d b e mo r e p r e s s u r e s f r o m t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d
t h e y 'r e w a t c h i n g t h i s v e r y c a r e f u l l y . A n d w h a t t h e y c a n d o a b o u t i t i s
react.
I d o n 't k n o w - - t h e y c a n ma y b e a d j u s t t h e i r c u r r e n c y a n d t h e y
s e e m t o b e s p e e d i n g u p t h e d e v a l u a t io n o f t h e i r c u r r e n c y . T h e y ma y b e
a b l e t o d o s o me t h i n g o n I P R a n d t h i n g s o f t h a t n a t u r e , b u t I t h i n k t h e
p r e s s u r e s a r e s o me t h i n g t h a t t h e r e i s j u s t t h i s e n o r mo u s t r a d e d e f i c i t
t h a t w e h a v e w i t h C h i n a , a n d I d o n 't t h i n k t h e y h a v e a g o o d a n s w e r f o r
that one.
So I think this is going to be a big problem for U.S.-China
r e l a t i o n s , a n d t h e q u e s t i o n i s h o w b i g ? A n d I d o n 't t h i n k t h e y f e e l
t h e y c a n r e a l l y c o n t r o l i t s o t h e y 'r e j u s t g o i n g t o h a v e t o r e a c t t o i t .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : T h a n k y o u .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r B a r t h o l o me w .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: T h a n k y o u , D r . S u t t e r .
I t 's a l w a y s i n t e r e s t i n g t o h e a r y o u r t e s t i mo n y . T h a n k y o u b o t h f o r
c o mi n g h e r e t o d a y a n d t h a n k y o u f o r a l l t h e s e r v i c e t o t h e g o v e r n me n t
of the United States over your different careers.
F o r me r C o mmi s s i o n e r T o m D o n n e l l y , w h o n o l o n g e r s e r v e s o n
- 45 -
t h e C o mmi s s i o n , u s e d t o t a l k a b o u t t h e p r o b l e m o f f r e e r i d e r s . I me a n
t h a t t h e U . S . i s b e a r i n g t h e c o s t o f ma i n t a i n i n g p e a c e i n A s i a a n d
peace other places in the world and other countries are benefiting. As
y o u w e r e t a l k i n g I f o u n d my s e l f t h i n k i n g a b o u t t h e S u n T z u c o n c e p t - -
t h a t y o u d e f e a t y o u r e n e my b e f o r e y o u e v e n h a v e t o g o t o t h e
battlefield.
S o t h e r e i s t h i s e c o n o mi c g r o w t h a n d t h i s i n c r e a s e d n e t w o r k o f
r e l a t i o n s h i p s , d i p l o ma c y , p o l i t i c a l , a l l o f t h e s e t h i n g s t h a t a r e g o i n g
on if we talk just in Asia. How do we reconcile that with this view
t h a t t h e C h i n e s e r e c o g n i z e t h a t t h e y a r e n 't d o i n g , ma y b e t h e y a r e n 't
d o i n g a n y t h i n g a g g r e s s i v e b e c a u s e t h e y d o n 't n e e d t o d o a n y t h i n g
a g g r e s s i v e i n o r d e r t o a c c o mp l i s h w h a t t h e y w a n t t o a c c o mp l i s h ? We
d o n 't k n o w a w h o l e l o t a b o u t t h e i r i n t e n t i o n s .
A n d t h e n t h e s e c o n d p i e c e I w o u l d p u t o u t t h e r e i s i f t h a t 's t h e
case, how do we deal with growing concern or think about or even
r e c o n c i l e g r o w i n g c o n c e r n i n I n d i a a b o u t C h i n a 's g r o w t h , a n d t h e
whole sort of triangulation that is going on, U.S.-China-India and
s o me o f t h e o t h e r c o u n t r i e s t h a t h a v e b e e n p a r t i c i p a t i n g , e v e n
Singapore?
DR. SUTTER: Thank you. I think China is taking advantage of
the existing order in the Asia- Pacific region. I think it benefits from
t h i s i n ma n y r e s p e c t s .
But there are down sides for China, too. And the down sides for
China are that they still receive a lot of pressure to change their
p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m a n d t h i s i s a g r e a t i n d i g n i t y t o t h e m. T h e U . S . i s
b u i l d i n g u p a c l o s e r mi l i t a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h T a i w a n . T h i s i s a g r o s s
violation from their point of view.
T h e U . S . r e ma i n s t h e d o mi n a n t p o w e r i n A s i a . I t b u i l d s a l l i a n c e
a n d mi l i t a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h c o u n t r i e s a l l a r o u n d C h i n a 's p e r i p h e r y ,
a n d t h e y h a v e t o b e q u i e t a b o u t t h i s b e c a u s e i f t h e y ma k e a b i g f u s s
o v e r i t , t h e y 'l l b e s e e n a s c o n f r o n t a t i o n a l a n d t h a t d i d n 't w o r k i n t h e
1 9 9 0 s , a n d t h e y p r o b a b l y j u d g e i t w o n 't w o r k v e r y w e l l n o w .
T h e U . S . i s v e r y d o mi n a n t i n t h e w o r l d , a n d t h e y d o n 't l i k e t h a t
e i t h e r . S o t h e y h a v e t o j u s t s o r t o f e a t t h i s f o r a w h i l e , ma y b e a l o n g
t i me . A n d I d o n 't t h i n k t h e y l i k e i t o n e b i t .
S o t h o s e a r e d o w n s i d e s f o r t h e m. B u t t h e u p s i d e i s t h a t t h e y a r e
a b l e t o a d v a n c e t h e i r e c o n o my a n d i n f l u e n c e i n t h e r e g i o n , a n d I t h i n k
h o w s i g n i f i c a n t i s t h i s ? T h i s i s e c o n o mi c a d v a n c i n g , w h i c h t h e y d o
for a variety of reasons, not just to spread their influence, but they
h a v e t o k e e p t h e i r e c o n o my g o i n g . T h e y h a v e t o k e e p s t a b i l i t y o n t h e
periphery. They have to isolate Taiwan. They have a whole list of
goals that they do in pursuing this.
B u t s p r e a d i n g t h e i r i n f l u e n c e i s p a r t o f t h a t , a n d d o e s t h a t c o me
a t t h e e x p e n s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ? I d o n 't t h i n k v e r y mu c h a c t u a l l y ,
- 46 -
b u t t h e y d o d o t h a t t h r o u g h t r a d e a n d t h r o u g h d i p l o ma c y , a d r o i t w i n -
w i n d i p l o ma c y .
But there are other ways of looking at this, which show that this
a d v a n c e w h i l e s i g n i f i c a n t i s n o t o v e r wh e l mi n g , a n d s o i s t h i s g o i n g t o
put China in a position to call the shots in Asia, to be the kingpin, to
be the godfather of Asia, you know, this kind of thing?
No way. A n d y o u me n t i o n e d I n d i a . Wh e n I i n t e r v i e w
g o v e r n me n t o f f i c i a l s t h r o u g h o u t t h e p e r ip h e r y o f C h i n a , t h e y 'r e a l l l i k e
I n d i a i n o n e s e n s e . T h e y w a n t t o b e i n d e p e n d e n t . T h e y d o n 't w a n t t o
b e d o mi n a t e d b y C h i n a a n d t h e y 'r e f o c u s e d o n t h i s . T h e y 'r e v e r y
f o c u s e d o n t h i s i s s u e , t h a t C h i n a i s t h e r i s i n g p o w e r . T h e y 'r e f o c u s e d
on this.
And so they are very wary. So they cooperate with China in all
t h e s e a r e a s w h e r e t h e y c a n c o o p e r a t e b e c a u s e i t 's a d v a n t a g e o u s
e c o n o mi c a l l y a n d s o f o r t h . B u t a t t h e s a me t i me t h e y d o w h a t ma n y
p e o p l e c a l l h e d g e - - c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n n i n g - - a n d t h e y 'r e a l l d o i n g i t .
L a o s d o e s n ’ t d o i t mu c h , b u t mo s t o f t h e o t h e r s a r e d o i n g i t . A n d
w e 'r e a b i g p a r t o f t h e h e d g i n g . T h e y w a n t t h e A me r i c a n s t o b e h e r e ,
b e r i g h t h e r e n e x t t o t h e m, a s C h i n a r i s e s .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: J u s t i n c a s e .
D R . S U T T E R : We ' r e b i g a n d w e ' r e p o w e r f u l , a n d s o a t t h e e n d ,
w h a t d o e s C h i n a g e t ? I t g e t s w h a t i t w a n t s i mme d i a t e l y , w h i c h i s
e c o n o mi c p r o g r e s s , s t a b i l i t y a t h o me , l e g i t i ma c y f o r t h e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n
i n C h i n a , a n d k e e p t h e s y s t e m w o r k i n g . T h a t 's t h e ma i n t h i n g t h e y
want.
D o t h e y w a n t t o d o mi n a t e A s i a ? M a y b e . B u t i s t h a t r e a l l y t h e
d r i v e r o f w h a t t h e y 'r e d o i n g ? I d o n 't t h i n k s o . I t h i n k t h e y 'r e t r y i n g t o
d e a l w i t h c o n t i n g e n c i e s , k e e p t h e ms e l v e s i n p o w e r a n d a d v a n c e t h e i r
c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r . B u t t he y h a v e t o l o o k f u r t h e r o u t f o r
a n y s o r t o f s i t u a t i o n w h e r e C h i n a w i l l b e d o mi n a n t b e c a u s e t h e U . S . i s
t h e r e , a n d i t ' s a r e a l p a i n i n t h e n e c k i n a l o t o f w a y s , a n d i t 's n o t
going away.
T h i s i s h o w I s e e i t a n y w a y . A n d I g e t c o n f i r ma t i o n b y , n o t s o
mu c h b y r e a d i n g U . S . me d i a o r - - We s t e r n me d i a g e t s v e r y e x c i t e d a b o u t
C h i n a 's r i s e - - b u t b y t a l k i n g t o o f f i c i a l s i n t h e r e g i o n o f f t h e r e c o r d ,
and there you get a very different perspective.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : T h a n k y o u . Y o u s a i d - - I 'm
g o i n g t o a s k a q u e s t i o n my s e l f - - y o u s a i d - - I t h i n k t h e e x a c t q u o t e w a s
that "China is not satisfied with its sovereignty situation."
DR. SUTTER: Uh-huh.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C a n y o u g e t s p e c i f i c ? Wh a t
are they not satisfied with vis-à-vis sovereignty?
DR. SUTTER: The head of the list is Taiwan.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Okay.
- 47 -
 DR. SUTTER: They want Taiwan to be part of China for a whole
r a n g e o f r e a s o n s . T h e y h a v e s o v e r e i g n c l a i ms t o t h e S o u t h C h i n a S e a
or the islands in the South China Sea. All that is Chinese territory. I
me a n t h a t 's , t h e y w a n t t h a t a t s o me p o i n t .
T h e c l a i ms a n d d i f f e r e n c e s t h e y h a v e w i t h J a p a n a n d t h e s e a
c l a i ms a s w e l l a s t h e S e n k a k u a n d D i a o y u I s l a n d s . I t 's v e r y i mp o r t a n t .
S o t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i ms . A l l o f C h i n a 's t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i ms t h e y f e e l a r e
l e g i t i ma t e a n d s h o u l d b e r e s p e c t e d a n d t h a t 's a g o a l o f t h e C h i n e s e
a d mi n i s t r a t i o n .
A second goal that deals with the concept which this hearing is
f o c u s e d o n , o n s o v e r e i g n s p a c e , t h e y d o n 't w a n t t o b e i n a p o s i t i o n
w h e r e a b i g p o w e r i s d o mi n a n t a r o u n d t h e i r p e r i p h e r y . N o w t h i s i s
d e r i v e d - - t h e y d o n 't s a y t h i s - - b u t t h i s i s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e r e c o r d .
J u s t l o o k a t w h a t t h e y 'v e d o n e , a n d t h i s i s n 't j u s t M a o Z e d o n g .
Mao Zedong obviously challenged the United States in Asia and
challenged the Soviet Union directly. And he risked nuclear war with
b o t h p o w e r s ma n y t i me s t o d o t h i s .
B u t D e n g X i a o p i n g d i d i t , t o o . Wh e n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w a s
d o mi n a n t i n s u r r o u n d i n g C h i n a , t h a t 's w h a t , d a y - t o - d a y , t h a t 's w h a t
Deng Xiaoping was focused on in foreign affairs--how to deal with the
S o v i e t t h r e a t . R e me mb e r t h e S o v i e t s w e r e i n V i e t n a m, t h e y h a d a
relationship with India, they had a very active fleet along the
periphery of China, as well as all along the Sino-Soviet frontier.
He worked very hard to deal with this. Now that ended with the
C o l d Wa r e n d i n g , b u t f o l l o w i n g t h a t w a s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , w h i c h w a s
v e r y o b n o x i o u s f r o m t h e C h i n e s e p o i n t o f v i e w a f t e r T i a n a n me n ,
pressuring the Chinese in the core area of interest of China--this is
t h e i r l e g i t i ma c y o f t h e r e g i me - - s a y i n g y o u g o t t o c h a n g e y o u r p o l i t i c a l
s y s t e m, a n d t h e C h i n e s e s a y t h a t 's w h a t w e 'r e h e r e n o t t o d o .
T h a t 's s o v e r e i g n t y . T h a t 's i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s , a n d t h e U . S . i s s e e n
a s t h i s k i n d o f a n a d v e r s a r y b y ma n y i n C h i n a o v e r t h e y e a r s , a n d s o
t h i s , i f t h e U . S . h a s t h e a b i l i t y t o d o s o me t h i n g a b o u t t h i s , i t 's b e c a u s e
i t 's o f t e n a r o u n d t h e p e r i p h e r y o f C h i n a , f r o m a s e c u r i t y p o i n t o f v i e w
a n d a n e c o n o mi c p o i n t o f v i e w , b u t p a r t i c u l a r l y s e c u r i t y , a n d s o t h e y
resist that as well.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : Wh a t a r e t h e mo s t s u b s t a n t i v e
and volatile sovereignty issues between China and the United States
directly?
D R . S U T T E R : T o d a y T a i w a n i s t he mo s t i mp o r t a n t o n e w i t h t h e
U . S . s u p p o r t i n g T a i w a n 's s e p a r a t e s t a t u s a n d s e c u r i t y v i s - à - v i s t h e
pressures from China.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Second?
DR. SUTTER: Now the second I would put is the U.S. pressure
o n C h i n a t o c h a n g e i t s p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m. T h i s i s a d i r e c t a f f r o n t t o
- 48 -
C h i n e s e s o v e r e i g n t y . Y o u c o u l d t a l k a b o u t e c o n o mi c p r e s s u r e s t o h o l d
C h i n a b a c k s o t h a t i t d o e s n 't h a v e t h e r i g h t t o , d o e s n 't h a v e a f r e e p a t h ,
a s i t s e e s i t , t o e c o n o mi c g r o w t h a n d d e v e l o p me n t , a n d I 'm s u r e t h e r e
a r e o t h e r t h i n g s t h a t y o u c o u l d s e e , b u t t h o s e a r e t h e ma i n o n e s .
And behind them is the U.S. relationship with Japan, which is
v e r y s u p p o r t i v e o f , o f c o u r s e , J a p a n 's p o s i t i o n , a n d h o w t h e U . S . l o o k s
at this relationship as a way of giving the United States strategic
position in Asia which is very useful for dealing with rising China.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: How do you view our
differences in our view of space sovereignty?
D R . S U T T E R : T h e s e a r e d i f f e r e nc e s . T h i s g o e s b a c k t o t h e
b a s i c p o i n t t h a t C h i n a d o e s n 't l i k e t h e U . S . b e i n g t h e d o mi n a n t p o w e r
i n t h e w o r l d a n d t h e U . S . c o n t r o l s t h e c o mmo n s . I t c o n t r o l s s p a c e , i t
c o n t r o l s t h e s e a , i t c o n t r o l s t h e a i r , i n c o mmo n a r e a s o f t h e w o r l d , a n d
C h i n a d o e s n 't l i k e t h a t o n e b i t .
But that is not high, I think, on the list that they're prepared to
d e a l w i t h t o d a y , b u t t h i s i s a mu l t i p o l a r w o r l d w h i c h C h i n a u l t i ma t e l y
h o p e s t o a c h i e v e w o u l d h a v e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b e i n g o n l y o n e o f ma n y
powers that would have influence over these kinds of issues. So, yes,
t h i s i s a n i s s u e f o r C h i n a . I t 's b e e n a n i s s u e f o r a l o n g t i me , b u t i t 's
n o t o n e t h a t t h e y p u t h i g h o n t h e i r l i s t e x c e p t a t v a r i o u s - - s o me t i me s
t h e y r a i s e i t , b u t i t 's n o t t h a t h i g h o n t h e i r l i s t .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : I ' l l c o me b a c k t o t h a t . Y e s ,
C o mmi s s i o n e r S l a n e .
C O M M I S S I O N E R S L A N E : T h a n k s f o r y o u r t e s t i mo n y . D o y o u
s e e p r e s s u r e b e i n g b r o u g h t r e g a r d i n g t h e i r e n v i r o n me n t a n d t r y i n g t o
do things to start to clean it up?
D R . S U T T E R : T h e p r e s s u r e o n C h i n a f r o m t h e e n v i r o n me n t , I
t h i n k , i s e n o r mo u s . I g u e s s t h e w o r d i s " s u s t a i n a b l e d e v e l o p me n t . "
H o w d o t h e y h a v e s u s t a i n a b l e d e v e l o p me n t ?
The leaders of China articulate a position that they understand
that this is a very difficult proposition for them and that they have to
d o s o me t h i n g a b o u t i t , a n d t h e y h a v e t o d o i t s o o n , a n d s o t h a t 's t h e
intention.
B u t w h a t I 'm w a i t i n g t o s e e i s w i l l t h e y a c t u a l l y d o i t ? A n d t h e
r e a s o n I 'm a l i t t l e s k e p t i c a l a b o u t t h i s i s t h a t ma n y o f y o u r e me mb e r L i
P e n g . R e me mb e r L i P e n g ? H e w a s M r . E n v i r o n me n t i n C h i n a . N o ,
I 'm n o t k i d d i n g . If you go back and see what he said about
e n v i r o n me n t , i t 's v e r y s i mi l a r t o w h a t t h e C h i n e s e l e a d e r s h i p i s s a y i n g
n o w : w e n e e d 1 . 5 p e r c e n t o f o u r s p e n d i n g o f G D P o n e n v i r o n me n t .
T h a t 's w h a t L i P e n g s a i d .
T h a t w a s o v e r t e n , t h a t w a s i n t h e e a r l y '9 0 s s o h o w l o n g a g o w a s
t h a t ? 1 5 y e a r s a g o - - t h e y 'v e b e e n s a y i n g t h i s . S o I 'm w a i t i n g t o s e e
w i l l t h e y s p e n d 1 . 5 o f G D P o n e n v i r o n me n t ?
- 49 -
 T h e r e a s o n t h e y d o n 't d o t h i s i s t h e t r a d e o f f s . T h e t r a d e o f f s a r e
s o h a r d a n d s o h e r e t h e y h a v e a s i t u a t i o n . A n d t h e ma i n t r a d e o f f i s
g r o w t h , e c o n o mi c g r o w t h , a n d t h e y n e e d e c o n o mi c g r o w t h i n o r d e r t o
d e v e l o p , b u t a l s o t o ma k e s u r e s t a b i l i t y c o n t i n u e s i n C h i n a . Y o u c a n
h a v e i n s t a b i l i t y b e c a u s e o f e n v i r o n me n t a l i s s u e s , b u t y o u c a n h a v e a
l o t o f i n s t a b i l i t y b e c a u s e o f l a c k o f g r o w t h . A n d i t s e e ms t h a t g r o w t h
wins in these debates in China.
I t h i n k t h e C h i n e s e a r e s t i l l i n t h e mi d s t o f t h i s d e b a t e , a n d s o I
d o n 't k n o w w h a t t h e y 'r e g o i n g t o d o . A t t h e N a t i o n a l P e o p l e 's
C o n g r e s s , I k n o w w h a t t h e y 'r e s a y i n g a s a r e s u l t o f t h e 1 7 t h P a r t y
C o n g r e s s a n d t h i n g s t h a t ; t h e y e mp h a s i z e t h i s a n d t h e y s a y t h e r e ' s a l o t
mo r e e mp h a s i s o n t h i s . We 'r e g o i n g t o d o a l o t mo r e a n d t h i s s o r t o f
t h i n g , a n d y e t w h e r e 's t h e mo n e y g o i n g t o c o me f r o m? S o I I t r y t o
w a t c h t h e mo n e y . A n d I h a v e n 't s e e n i t y e t . T h e r e 's s o me , b u t I
h a v e n 't s e e n i t y e t . A n d s o me o f t h e b e n c h ma r k s I 'm l o o k i n g a t a r e t h e
following:
N u mb e r o n e , I me n t i o n e d e a r l i e r , e n e r g y . T h e y 'v e g o t t e n
t h e ms e l v e s i n t o a s i t u a t i o n o v e r t h e l a s t s i x o r s e v e n y e a r s w h e r e s t a t e -
o w n e d e n t e r p r i s e s t h a t a r e i n v o l v e d i n h i g h e n e r g y u s e h a v e b e c o me
v e r y p r o mi n e n t a n d h a v e g r o w n a l o t a n d t h e y s e e m v e r y i mp o r t a n t f o r
t h e e c o n o my . And so the energy use in China has ballooned by
i n d u s t r y . T h i s i s n 't C h i n e s e p e o p l e g e t t i n g i n c a r s a n d b u r n i n g o i l .
This is industry.
T h i s t o o k t h e m b y s u r p r i s e . Wi l l t h e y s t o p t h i s ? H o w d o t h e y
s t o p t h i s ? We l l , i f t h e y s t o p i t , t h o s e s t a t e - o w n e d e n t e r p r i s e s a r e
g o i n g t o h a v e u n e mp l o y me n t o r l e s s e mp l o y me n t , l e s s g r o w t h . Wi l l
they do that? I'm really watching to see if they will do that.
The second thing is energy efficiency, the use of efficiency. As
you know the efficiency of use in industry in China is very, very poor.
T h e y c o u l d s a v e a l o t o f e n e r g y a n d h e l p t h e e n v i r o n me n t b y p u t t i n g
i n t h e i n p u t s t h a t w o u l d ma k e t h e i r e n e r g y u s e mu c h mo r e e f f i c i e n t .
D o t h e y d o t h a t ? N o t y e t . S o me .
B u t i t 's c o s t l y t o d o t h a t a n d t h e y d o n 't h a v e t h e mo n e y , I g u e s s ,
t o d o t h i s , o r t h e y d o n 't g i v e t h e p r i o r i t y t o s p e n d t h e mo n e y t o d o t h i s
sort of thing. So I think we really do need to watch the fine print.
T h i s i s a l i t t l e n e r d y . Y o u h a v e t o l o o k a n d s e e w h a t t h e y 'r e d o i n g a n d
s o f o r t h , b u t i f y o u d o n 't d o t h i s , a n d y o u j u s t t a k e t h e i r d e c l a r a t i o n s a t
f a c e v a l u e , t h e n I w o u l d g i v e y o u L i P e n g 's r e ma r k s i n '9 2 . L o o k a t
what he said, too.
I w o u l d j u s t w a t c h t h i s c a r e f u l l y a n d s o my s e n s e i s i t w i l l b e
g r a d u a l . We 'r e n o t d e a l i n g w i t h a l e a d e r s h i p t h a t s e e ms t o h a v e t i g h t
p o w e r . We 'r e d e a l i n g w i t h c o n s e n s u s t y p e o f d e c i s i o n - ma k i n g . H u
J i n t a o i s o b v i o u s l y f i r s t a mo n g e q u a l s , b u t h e 's n o t d o mi n a n t . A n d s o
h e h a s t o d e a l w i t h t h e s e p e o p l e t h a t h a v e i mp o r t a n t i n t e r e s t s i n t h e s e
- 50 -
state-owned enterprises that are very inefficient and yet are very
i mp o r t a n t f o r g r o w t h , a n d h e h a s t o l i s t e n t o e n v i r o n me n t a l c o n c e r n s ,
and he has to balance it all out and you get sort of a slow approach.
I w o u l d e n v i s a g e a s l o w a p p r o a c h . T h a t 's my s e n s e . I w o u l d n 't
e x p e c t d r a ma t i c c h a n g e , a n d n o w i n ma n a g i n g c l i ma t e c h a n g e i s s u e s ,
f r o m a d i p l o ma t i c p o i n t o f v i e w , t h e y 'r e v e r y a c t i v e . T h e y 'r e v e r y
p r o mi n e n t . T h e y h a v e a n a mb a s s a d o r . T h e y h a v e a s t a t e me n t .
T h e y 'r e o r g a n i z e d o n t h i s i s s u e t o ma n a g e t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
p r e s s u r e s t h a t t h e y ' l l g e t b e c a u s e t he y 'r e s u c h a b i g p r o d u c e r o f g a s e s
t h a t c a u s e g l o b a l w a r mi n g , b u t c o s t t h i n g s , t h i n g s t h a t w i l l c o s t , I
t h i n k t h e y 'r e v e r y r e l u c t a n t t o d o b e c a u s e o f t h e s e t r a d e o f f s t h a t t h e y
f a c e . N o t b e c a u s e t h e y d o n 't w a n t t o . I t 's t h e t r a d e o f f s a r e j u s t t o o
strong.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r V i d e n i e k s .
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: A brief question. I think I heard
you say that sovereignty requires growth. It requires stability and
stability requires growth.
DR. SUTTER: Yes.
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Is there a probability that China
ma y t r y t o e x t e r n a l i z e i n s t a b i l i t y l i k e o t h e r c o u n t r i e s h a v e d o n e i n t h e
past, and if that were to be the case, how would they, in which
direction would they and how would they, if they would, externalize
instability?
DR. SUTTER: Okay. It's a very useful question. I appreciate
y o u r a s k i n g i t . I g u e s s w h a t y o u me a n i s t h a t C h i n a w o u l d s o me h o w
f o c u s o n a n e x t e r n a l c o n c e r n t o mu s t e r - -
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Yes.
DR. SUTTER: --support internally. Mao Zedong used to do this
a l l t h e t i me . H e 'd u s e f o r e i g n i s s ue s t o mo b i l i z e s u p p o r t i n t e r n a l l y a n d
s o f o r t h . T h i s i s v e r y h a r d t o d o i f y o u 'r e n o t s u r e y o u 'r e i n c o n t r o l ,
a n d I t h i n k t h e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n o f C h i n a i s s t i l l c a r e f u l a b o u t c a u s i n g
a n y t h i n g t h a t w o u l d b e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i s r u p t i v e , t h a t c o u l d s o me h o w
t u r n a g a i n s t t h e m, a n d s o I t h i n k t h e y 'l l t e n d - - t h e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n o f H u
J i n t a o , f o l l o w i n g i n t h e t r a d i t i o n o f t h e p r e v i o u s a d mi n i s t r a t i o n , w i l l
probably continue to avoid this kind of a situation.
T h e y s e e k s t a b i l i t y o v e r s e a s . T h e y d o n 't w a n t b i g t r o u b l e . Y o u
s a y i f c i r c u ms t a n c e s w e r e t o c h a n g e s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n C h i n a , t h e b i g
e c o n o mi c d o w n t u r n , r e c e s s i o n , t h e r e 's a c r i s i s f o r t h e l e a d e r s h i p ,
w o u l d t h e y t h e n l o o k a t T a i w a n a s a p l a c e a n d s a y , w e l l , w e 'r e r e a l l y
t o u g h o n T a i w a n s o l e t 's r a l l y t h e t r o o p s o n T a i w a n , g e t n a t i o n a l i s t i c
fervor and so forth to work for us? They could do that.
But I don't think that's their choice at all because it's dangerous.
I t 's v e r y d a n g e r o u s f o r t h e m. I t c o u l d l e a d t o c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e U n i t e d
S t a t e s w h i c h i s d i s a s t r o u s f o r t h e i r e c o n o my , f o r t h e i r s t a b i l i t y , a n d
- 51 -
t h e y 'v e w o r k e d s o h a r d t o t r y t o k e e p t h e s i t u a t i o n a r o u n d t h e i r
p e r i p h e r y s t a b l e . S o I d o n 't t h i n k t h e y 'l l d o i t , a n d I d o n 't t h i n k t h e
conditions now warrant this at all. A n d I t h i n k i t 's b a s i c a l l y a
leadership that is very risk adverse.
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: I was thinking of the analogy of
a ma n o n a b i c y c l e . Y o u h a v e t o k e e p mo v i n g . I f y o u s t o p , y o u f a l l .
DR. SUTTER: Right.
C O M M I S S I O N E R V I D E N I E K S : B u t y o u 'r e b a s i c a l l y s a y i n g , i f I
u n d e r s t a n d c o r r e c t l y , t h e p r o j e c t i o n i s i t w o n 't h a p p e n ?
D R . S U T T E R : I t h i n k w h a t t h e y h a v e t o k e e p mo v i n g a n d d o i n g
i s k e e p i n g t h e i r e c o n o my g r o w i n g . T h a t 's w h a t h a s t o d o k e e p mo v i n g .
A n d i f t h a t k e e p s mo v i n g a n d t h e y k e e p s t a b i l i t y o t h e r w i s e , I t h i n k
t h e y 'r e o k a y , a n d t h e y s a y t h e y h a v e t h i s s t r a t e g i c p l a n , a n d s o t h e i r
focus for the next, until 2020, to focus on this strategic opportunity,
a n d t h e y d o n 't w a n t t o me s s i t u p b y g e t t i n g i n t o a c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e
U n i t e d S t a t e s o r s o me o t h e r c o u n t r y . A n d I t h i n k t h a t ma k e s s e n s e f o r
t h e m. I t h i n k t h a t ma k e s s e n s e f o r t h e m.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r E s p e r .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: I guess this is round two.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Yes, this is round two.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Dr. Sutter, going back to the
G u l l i v e r a n a l o g y , I a s s u me t h a t s o me o f t h e r o p e s b y w h i c h w e w o u l d
b e t i e d d o w n a n d e n t a n g l e d w i t h C h i n a a r e mu l t i l a t e r a l a g r e e me n t s ,
treaties, things like that.
DR. SUTTER: Yes.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: China would see this as a way to
safeguard its sovereignty. To what degree does the United States have
c o n f i d e n c e t h a t C h i n a i t s e l f w o u l d a b i d e b y t h o s e s a me a g r e e me n t s a n d
t r e a t i e s , o r a r e t h e i r a c t i o n s me r e l y t a c t i c a l ?
DR. SUTTER: It's a very good question. I think for now you
c a n s a y y e s , i t w o u l d b e t o o c o s t l y - - I g u e s s y o u g e t a s e n s e n o w I 'm
v e r y mu c h a r e a l i s t a b o u t t h e s e s o r t s o f t h i n g s . I 'm a l w a y s l o o k i n g a t
c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s , a n d my e x p e r i e n c e i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e C h i n e s e
o v e r , t h e C h i n e s e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n o v e r t h e y e a r s i s t h a t I t h i n k t h e y 'r e
pretty realists too.
T h e C h i n e s e c o s t i n b r e a k i n g a g r e e me n t s a t t h i s p o i n t i s p r e t t y
n e g a t i v e . I t w o u l d b e p r e t t y b a d , b e p r e t t y h i g h f o r t h e m. A n d s o I
think they want to avoid this. I think we could have pretty good
c o n f i d e n c e t h a t t h e y w o u l d a b i d e b y t h e s e a g r e e me n t s .
C a n y o u s a y t h a t 's a l w a y s g o i n g t o b e t h e c a s e ? I w o u l d n 't s a y
i t ' s a l w a y s t h e c a s e . I t c o u l d c h a n g e w i t h c h a n g i n g c i r c u ms t a n c e s .
A n d t h e k e y c i r c u ms t a n c e i s c o n f i d e n c e t h e C h i n e s e w o u l d h a v e i n
their power, in their ability to call the shots, if you will, in
i n t e r n a t i o n a l a f f a i r s , a n d I j u s t t h i n k t h e y 'r e s u c h a l o n g w a y a w a y
- 52 -
from that.
T h a t ma y b e a g o a l t h a t t h e y h a v e , b u t I t h i n k t h e y ' r e s o f a r a w a y
f r o m t h i s t h a t I t h i n k w e c a n h a v e s o me c o n f i d e n c e b e c a u s e t h e
international pressures that they would feel from doing this kind of
t h i n g w o u l d b e q u i t e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d w o u l d r e ma i n s i g n i f i c a n t i n s o f a r
as the nations of the world, led by the United States, continued to
t h i n k t h a t C h i n e s e i mp l e me n t a t i o n w a s i mp o r t a n t .
A s t h e y b e c o me e v e n mo r e i n t e r d e p e n d e n t e c o n o mi c a l l y a n d
otherwise with countries in the world, the cost to them breaking
s i g n i f i c a n t a g r e e me n t s i s v e r y h i g h .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : Wh a t a b o u t s h o r t o f b r e a k i n g
t h e m? Wh a t a b o u t n o t f u l l y i mp l e me n t i n g t h e m?
DR. SUTTER: I think a lot of countries will always try to get
a r o u n d t h e i s s u e s , f i n e s s e t h e m i f y o u w i l l , i f i t c o s t s t h e m. B u t I
t h i n k t h a t i f t h e y 'r e - - s o t h e s e f u z z y o n e s a r e h a r d t o - - y o u 'r e r i g h t . I f
i t 's n o t a b o l d e n d i n g o f t h e a g r e e me n t , b u t i t 's s o r t o f u n d e r mi n i n g t h e
a g r e e me n t , y e s , t h e y ma y t r y t h a t , a n d o t h e r c o u n t r i e s d o t h a t , t o o . I
d o n 't t h i n k t h a t 's u n u s u a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r , f r a n k l y s p e a k i n g .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: I ask because hearing from you
and from the previous panel, we, or at least I, get a sense that the
Chinese take a very clear view of sovereignty and are the first to
d e f e n d t h e i r v i e w s o n s o v e r e i g n t y a n d t h e n o t i o n s o f mu t u a l
i n t e r f e r e n c e . S o i t b e g s t h e q u e s t i o n , i f t h e y 'r e g o i n g t o t a k e s u c h a
hard-line view on protecting their sovereignty and doing so through
a g r e e me n t s a n d t r e a t i e s , o n e mi g h t e x p e c t t h e m t o b e e q u a l l y d i l i g e n t
i n l i v i n g u p t o t h e i r e n d o f s u c h a g r e e me n t s .
DR. SUTTER: Yes.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: The one that we discussed this
mo r n i n g , a n d y o u me n t i o n e d b r i e f l y , w a s t h e L a w o f t h e S e a T r e a t y ,
which is a very long-established treaty, and they signed on to it, and
y e t w e 'v e l e a r n e d o f a n u mb e r o f l i k e l y i n f r a c t i o n s o f t h e t r e a t y , a n d
d i f f e r e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f w h a t t h e t r e a t y t e x t ma y s a y .
DR. SUTTER: Yes.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: And so it does beg the question as
t o w h e t h e r t r e a t i e s a n d a g r e e me n t s a r e s i g n e d o n t o i n o r d e r t o p o l i s h
t h e i ma g e o f t h e P R C i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y , i n o r d e r t o a s s u r e c o u n t r i e s o f
C h i n a 's p e a c e f u l r i s e , a n d s i mi l a r p u r p o s e s , b u t me a n w h i l e b e c a u s e
t h e y h a v e o t h e r o b j e c t i v e s , w h e t h e r i t ma y b e s e c u r i n g t h e i r l i n e s o f
c o mmu n i c a t i o n o r a c q u i r i n g n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , t h e y 'r e g o i n g t o f i n e s s e
the treaty--
DR. SUTTER: Yes.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: --to achieve those ends.
D R . S U T T E R : I t h i n k t h a t ' s v e r y a c c u r a t e . I t h i n k t h e WT O i s
t h e o n e I w o u l d l o o k a t . T h e y s i g n e d o n t o WT O , t h e y h a v e a l o t o f
- 53 -
c o mmi t me n t s , a n d y e t t h e r e c o r d i s s o r t o f mi x e d .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : L e t me j u mp a h e a d s i n c e I ' m
r u n n i n g o u t o f t i me t h e n . L e t 's u s e t h e e n e r g y e x a mp l e , b e c a u s e o n
energy and sovereignty China has taken a different approach. Rather
t h a n b u y i n g o i l i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l ma r k e t s , i t s e e ms t o b e g o i n g s t r a i g h t
t o t h e w e l l h e a d s . I t 's e s t a b l i s h i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h o i l - p r o d u c i n g
r e g i me s .
We 'v e t a l k e d a b o u t i t s a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e S o u t h C h i n a S e a , i t s
willingness, so to speak, to redefine its obligations under the Law of
the Sea Treaty to effect those ends.
S o i t g e t s b a c k t o t h e f i r s t q u e s t i o n I a s k e d : w h a t mi g h t w e s e e
C h i n a d o w h e n w e s t a r t t a l k i n g a b o u t o t h e r r e a l ms s u c h a s o u t e r s p a c e ?
Could we see them trying, as we do now, to push for a new type of
o u t e r s p a c e t r e a t y ? C o u l d w e e x p e c t t h e m t o l i v e u p t o t h e t e r ms o f
t h e t r e a t y ? C o u l d w e s e e t h e m t a k e a n a p p r o a c h g l o b a l l y w h e r e t h e y 'r e
d e a l i n g b i l a t e r a l l y w i t h o t h e r s t a t e s i n o r d e r t o g a i n a g r e e me n t s t h a t
mi g h t s e e k t o c o n s t r a i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n s p a c e ?
Wh a t mi g h t w e s e e c o me o u t o f t h e i r p l a y b o o k b a s e d o n h o w
t h e y 'v e a p p r o a c h e d o t h e r a r e a s ?
DR. SUTTER: I think the playbook in this area has been
l o n g s t a n d i n g , a n d t h e y 'r e t r y i n g t o l i mi t t h e U . S . d o mi n a n c e o f t h i s
c o mmo n s . T h e y 'r e t r y i n g . T h i s i s w h a t t h e y 'r e t r y i n g t o d o - - I me a n
the idea of sharing this and so forth. I think that the goal--that goes
b a c k t o s u p e r p o w e r d o mi n a n c e o f s p a c e .
T h e y 'v e b e e n a g a i n s t t h a t f o r a l o n g , l o n g t i me , a n d s o I t h i n k
t r y i n g t o d o i n t h i s c a s e , I t h i n k i t 's p r e t t y h e a v i l y t h a t t h e g o a l i s t o
l i mi t - - i s mu l t i p o l a r i t y a s f a r a s t h e u s e o f s p a c e i s c o n c e r n e d , a n d I 'm
not sure the U.S. is going to buy that. I think the U.S. is going to
resist that in one way or another because power realities are such that
t h e U . S . i s j u s t d o mi n a n t i n t h i s a r e a . I t h i n k t h e r e w i l l b e r e s i s t a n c e ,
a n d t h e r e h a s b e e n f o r ma n y , ma n y y e a r s .
T h i s g o e s w a y b a c k - - C o n f e r e n c e o f D i s a r ma me n t , a l l t h e s e k i n d s
of discussions against it, and so the Chinese have been pretty
consistent on this issue.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r We s s e l .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : T h a n k y o u . L e t me a s k y o u a
q u e s t i o n a b o u t , i f I c a n , t h e e x t e n t o f C h i n a 's s o v e r e i g n i n t e r e s t s , i f
you will. As it has grown as a power, are there any activities that
China has engaged in which you think they are doing for reasons other
than expanding the sovereign control, or as you, I think, gave the top
t h r e e r e a s o n s o f t h e i r o t h e r r e a s o n s , me a n i n g T a i w a n , i n t e r n a l c o n t r o l ,
e t c e t e r a , a r e t h e r e a n y e l e e mo s y n a r y a c t i v i t i e s t h e y e n g a g e i n ?
D R . S U T T E R : Y o u ' r e g o i n g t o h a v e t o h e l p me .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : Any charitable activities they
- 54 -
engage in.
DR. SUTTER: Yes.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : A n d a s y o u , f o r e x a mp l e , o n t h e
f l i p s i d e o f t h a t , w h e n t h e U . S . e n g a g e d , f o r e x a mp l e , i n t s u n a mi
r e l i e f , d i d t h e y v i e w t h a t a s a d e s i r e b y t h e U . S . t o e x p a n d o r ma i n t a i n
i t s s o v e r e i g n i n f l u e n c e o r s i mp l y a s a c h a r i t a b l e a c t i v i t y ? A r e w e
g o i n g t o s e e a n y e n g a g e me n t o f C h i n a o n a d i f f e r e n t l e v e l b e y o n d
s i mp l y s o v e r e i g n c o n t r o l , e x p a n s i o n , r e t e n t i o n , e t c e t e r a ?
DR. SUTTER: Yes, I think we will.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : H a v e w e s e e n a n y y e t ?
D R . S U T T E R : Y e s , I t h i n k s o b e c a u s e I t h i n k t h e r e 's s o ma n y o f
t h e s e i s s u e s t h e mo t i v e s me s h . I t ' s n o t j u s t s o v e r e i g n t y . I t 's w h a t a r e
n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s f o r C h i n a ? S e v e r al o f u s t h i s mo r n i n g h a v e t a l k e d
a b o u t i ma g e . I ma g e i s v e r y i mp o r t a n t f o r C h i n a , a n d s o t o h a v e a g o o d
i ma g e , y o u h a v e t o l o o k l i k e y o u 'r e a l t r u i s t i c s o me t i me s , a n d y o u h a v e
t o l o o k l i k e y o u 'r e w i l l i n g t o h e l p . Y o u h a v e t h e s e n s e o f t h e c o mmo n
good.
The Chinese do this in a lot of different ways. They do it in
w a y s t h a t d o n 't c o s t t h e m v e r y mu c h , b u t t h e y d o d o i t , l i k e
peacekeeping. You know they do peacekeeping, a lot of it, and I
a s s u me t h e y g e t p a i d f o r t h i s , b u t s t i l l t h e i r p e o p l e a r e a t r i s k w h e n
t h e y d o t h i s . T h a t 's i mp o r t a n t .
I t h i n k t h e r e a r e a n u mb e r o f o t h e r t h i n g s . T h e t s u n a mi r e l i e f i s
a g o o d e x a mp l e o f t h a t . T h e y o b v i o u s l y s a w t h a t t h e w o r l d w a s v e r y
mu c h r e s p o n d i n g i n a s t r o n g w a y . T h i s i s i n A s i a - - t h e y h a d t o t a k e a
big role and they tried as best they could to play a role there.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : B u t d i d t h e y d o t h a t b e c a u s e t h e y
w e r e c o n c e r n e d a b o u t t h e i r p r e s e n c e a n d i ma g e o r a g a i n c h a r i t a b l e a n d
how do they view us? Is everything directed towards the retention of
power?
DR. SUTTER: It's heavily state-centered, state interest-
c e n t e r e d . Wh e n t h e y t h i n k a b o u t i s s u e s , i n my e x p e r i e n c e , i t 's h e a v i l y
state-centered. So globalization. Do you think globalization is going
t o b e n e f i t t h e w o r l d ? M a y b e . B u t t he y w a n t t o ma k e s u r e i t b e n e f i t s
China.
I t h i n k t h i s i s f a i r l y t y p i c a l o f t h e C h i n e s e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n a n d
I ' m n o t s u r e i t ' s a t y p i c a l o f o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . I t h i n k ma n y c o u n t r i e s a r e
l i k e t h i s s o t h e r e 's a r e a s o n f o r t h e s e k i n d s o f t h i n g s , a s t a t e r e a s o n ,
a n d s o i ma g e i s i mp o r t a n t , a n d t h e i d e a o f a l t r u i s m b y c o u n t r i e s , I l o o k
a t my o w n c o u n t r y - - I 'm n o t s u r e h o w a l t r u i s t i c my c o u n t r y i s . S o I
don't say the Chinese is an outlier in this regard. I think it's quite
c o mmo n t h e w a y t h e y d e a l w i t h t h e s e i s s u e s .
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : We ma y d i f f e r o n a c o u p l e o f
issues, that--
- 55 -
 DR. SUTTER: Sure. I'm sure we do.
C O M M I S S I O N E R WE S S E L : - - w e r e r a i s e d t o d a y b u t w e d o n ' t
need to go through that. Thank you.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: L e t me ma k e a c o u p l e o f
c o mme n t s a n d a s k y o u a q u i c k q u e s t i o n . O n t h e q u e s t i o n o f L i P e n g ,
w h e n I o r i g i n a l l y r e a d t h o s e s t a t e me n t s , I w a s a l w a y s mi n d f u l o f t h e
fact that his son ran Huaneng Power and his daughter ran China Power,
a n d t h e y p r o d u c e d mo r e c o a l - f i r e d p o w e r p l a n t s i n C h i n a t h a n a n y
o t h e r t w o h u ma n b e i n g s .
D R . S U T T E R : Y o u k n o w mo r e a b o u t t h i s t h a n I d o .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Because I never believed it.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: J u s t o n e o f t h o s e l i t t l e
ironies.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : A s e c o n d c o mme n t a n d p o i n t .
We a l w a y s h e a r t e s t i mo n y a n d w e a l w a y s d i s c u s s g r o w t h a n d n e v e r -
e n d i n g g r o w t h a s i n C h i n a 's i n t e r e s t . H a s t h e r e e v e r b e e n a n e c o n o my
that experienced never-ending growth without a recession?
DR. SUTTER: [Shakes head.]
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : S o t h e r e 's g o i n g t o b e o n e ;
right?
DR. SUTTER: Yes.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: So his questions to the reaction
o f w h a t t h e y 'r e g o i n g t o d o a r e i mp o r t a n t , a n d y o u r a n s w e r w a s
i mp o r t a n t , b u t I j u s t w a n t e d t o ma k e t h e p o i n t t h a t i t i s mo r e t h a n a
l i t t l e i n e v i t a b l e t h a t t h e r e ' s g o i n g t o b e a s e r i o u s b u mp i n t h e r o a d t h a t
creates, quote-unquote, "instability."
T h a t g e t s t o my l a s t q u e s t i o n . I n y o u r i n t e r e s t i n g G u l l i v e r
strategy discussion, the constraints that interdependence creates on
both countries, if we only view the United States and China, in your
v i e w , w h o i s c o n s t r a i n e d mo r e ? T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o r C h i n a ? Wh o i s
mo r e d e p e n d e n t o n t h e b i n d i n g s ? T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o r C h i n a ?
DR. SUTTER: Okay. On instability and recession, I agree. I
was anticipating political instability in China before the recession.
I 'm n o t s o s u r e n o w . I n o t h e r w o r d s , I t h o u g h t t h a t y o u h a v e t o h a v e
t h i s t r a n s i t i o n s o me h o w i n C h i n a ; t h i s a u t h o r i t a r i a n i s t s y s t e m c a n 't l a s t
f o r e v e r , i t s e e ms t o me . S o I 'm n o t s u r e w h i c h o n e i s g o i n g t o h a p p e n
first.
B u t e i t h e r o n e w o u l d b e a b i g b u mp i n t h e r o a d a n d t h a t c o u l d
lead to a lot of uncertainty as to which direction the leadership would
take.
I t h i n k C h i n a i s mu c h mo r e c o n s t r a i n e d t h a n U n i t e d S t a t e s , o n
your second point. T h i s a d mi n i s t r a t i o n a n d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s
g o v e r n me n t h a s l e g i t i ma c y . I t 's a f u n d a me n t a l s t r e n g t h o f t h e U n i t e d
S t a t e s , a n d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i s s o p o w e r f u l i n n o n - g o v e r n me n t a l w a y s ;
- 56 -
i n o t h e r w o r d s , i t h a s a l l t h e s e e n o r mo u s c i v i l s o c i e t i e s a n d w a y s o f
d e a l i n g w i t h i s s u e s t h a t p e o p l e j u s t d o i t t h e ms e l v e s .
A n d C h i n a h a s n e i t h e r o n e o f t h o s e . A n d s o t h i s ma k e s t h e m
v e r y c o n c e r n e d a b o u t k e e p i n g s t a b i l i t y a n d l e g i t i ma c y a n d s o f o r t h
a n d , t h e r e f o r e t h e U . S . c a n t h e n g o o f f a n d d o s o me t h i n g t h a t ma y b e
w o u l d b e d i f f i c u l t t o j u s t i f y i n s o me w a y , b u t i t h a s t h e a b i l i t y t o d o
that.
I t h i n k C h i n a i s v e r y c o n s t r a i n e d b e c a u s e t h e c o s t s o f mo v i n g i n
t h e s e d i r e c t i o n s , t h e y 'r e j u s t n o t a s mu c h i n c o n t r o l o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
situation.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Thank you. Anyone else?
Yes, Dan.
C O M M I S S I O N E R S L A N E : D r . S u t t e r , i s i t a f a i r s t a t e me n t t h a t
i f w e w a n t t o l o o k a t C h i n a ' s f o r e i g n p o l i c y , i t 's r e a l l y d o mi n a t e d b y
e c o n o mi c g r o w t h ?
DR. SUTTER: E c o n o mi c g r o w t h i s , my v i e w i s t h a t C h i n a
d o e s n 't h a v e a c l e a r s t r a t e g y i n f o r e i g n a f f a i r s . I t h a s g o a l s t h a t a r e
c l e a r a n d e c o n o mi c g r o w t h i s o n e o f t h e m, b u t t h e y h a v e n a t i o n a l i s t i c
g o a l s , t o o . A n d s o me t i me s t h e y c a n b e j u s t a s i mp o r t a n t , ma y b e e v e n
mo r e i mp o r t a n t t h a n e c o n o mi c g r o w t h .
T h a t 's w h y T a i w a n i s s u c h a b i g p r o b l e m b e c a u s e t h a t c o u l d , t h e
Chinese leaders say we will, if Taiwan declares independence, we will
put aside all these other priorities, and we will use force to prevent
Taiwan from going independent. I believe them when they say this.
A n d s o i n t h a t c o n d i t i o n , e c o n o mi c g r o w t h d o e s n 't d o mi n a t e ; e c o n o mi c
g r o w t h i s n 't t h e d o mi n a n t d e t e r mi n a n t . T h a t 's n a t i o n a l i s m, t h a t ' s
territorial sovereignty, integrity, and so forth.
And so when you add up, you put the goals of the Chinese
a d mi n i s t r a t i o n t o g e t h e r , i t ma k e s i t r e a l l y h a r d t o c o me u p w i t h a
coherent strategy, and so what you have is an approach, approaches, to
d e a l w i t h t h e s e d i f f e r e n t a r e a s . Y o u h a v e a n a t i o n a l d e v e l o p me n t
strategy. You have a national unification strategy. You have a
n a t i o n a l d e f e n s e s t r a t e g y . A n d t h e s e a r e s o me t i me s d i f f e r e n t a n d t h e y
lead to clashes.
So the picture I have of China is that, is of a leadership trying to
ma n a g e t h e s e d i f f e r e n t c o n f l i c t i n g g o a l s , s o me t i me s c o n f l i c t i n g g o a l s ,
a s t h e y mo v e a h e a d , a n d n o o n e - - e c o n o mi c s i s v e r y i mp o r t a n t , a n d i t 's
o f t e n d o mi n a n t , b u t i t 's n o t t h e w h o l e s t o r y .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: A quick sovereignty question.
Wh e n w e w e r e a t t h e A c a d e my o f M i l i t a r y S c i e n c e s l a s t y e a r ,
e s s e n t i a l l y t h e s e c o l o n e l l e v e l o f f i c e r s , o n e , I b e l i e v e ma i n t a i n e d o r
posited that China essentially owns the airspace over its country all
the way to infinity. I s t h e r e a n y o t h e r c o u n t r y t h a t ma i n t a i n s a
p o s i t i o n s i mi l a r t o t h a t ?
- 57 -
 DR. SUTTER: Jeepers, I don't know. I would just off the top of
my h e a d , h o w a b o u t R u s s i a ?
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: But the Russians run satellites
o v e r u s s o i t 's k i n d o f a b i t o f a p r o b l e m. I d o n 't t h i n k t h e R u s s i a n s
h a v e e v e r ma i n t a i n e d t h a t .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: They were the first to launch a
satellite.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : A n d I d o n 't k n o w o f a n y o t h e r
ma j o r o r r i s i n g - -
DR. SUTTER: Is that the official Chinese position though? Be
hard to justify in this day and age.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : I d o n 't k n o w t h a t t h e r e i s a n
o f f i c i a l C h i n e s e p o s i t i o n o n s p a c e . A c t u a l l y w e 'r e g o i n g t o t r y t o g e t
to that this afternoon, I trust.
DR. SUTTER: Yes.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : O n e o t h e r t h i n g , my q u e s t i o n
o n t h e c o n s t r a i n t s , y o u s o r t o f r a i s e a n o t h e r i s s u e i n my mi n d w h e n
y o u t a l k a b o u t T a i w a n . S o I 'l l a c c e p t y o u r a r g u me n t t h a t t h e y w i l l a t
s o me p o i n t d e c i d e t h a t e c o n o mi c g r o w t h i s l e s s i mp o r t a n t t h a n t a k i n g
Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence.
The question I have is, is the response of the United States
because of the Gulliver strategy, is our dependence so great that our
response is feeble or strong?
D R . S U T T E R : Y e s . I t ' s s o me t h i n g t h a t - -
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : A n d o u r s t r a t e g i c a mb i g u i t y o n
t h i s , w e l e a v e i t u p i n t h e a i r w h a t w e 'r e g o i n g t o d o , a n d I u n d e r s t a n d
that. But the question really is: is our dependence so great on China
e c o n o mi c a l l y t h a t w e ma y l o o k t h e o t h e r w a y o r n o t q u i t e e x a c t l y l o o k
t h e o t h e r w a y , b u t d o s o me t h i n g - -
DR. SUTTER: I think there are all sorts of reasons why the
U n i t e d S t a t e s mi g h t l o o k t h e o t h e r w a y , a n d e c o n o mi c s i s o n e o f t h e m.
The other is it would be a terrible war, could be a terrible war. And
s o c a s u a l t i e s a n d s o f o r t h c o u l d b e e n o r mo u s i n t h i s k i n d o f a c o n f l i c t .
A n d s o I t h i n k t h i s i s s o me t h i n g t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s d e f i n i t e l y
d o e s n 't w a n t t o d o a n d C h i n a d e f i n i t e l y d o e s n ' t w a n t t o d o . S o w e d o
have sort of a deterrent type of situation in the cross-Strait
r e l a t i o n s h i p f o r t h e t i me b e i n g .
But has U.S. willingness to lean forward on this issue or lean
backward on this issue been evident over the past decades? Yes, very
mu c h s o . I f y o u g o b a c k t o t h e N i x o n - K i s s i n g e r a p p r o a c h t o d e a l i n g
with Taiwan, I think the record is pretty clear, they expected this thing
t o s o r t o f b e s e t t l e d i n s o me w a y , a n d i t w o u l d n 't b e a p r o b l e m
a n y mo r e . A n d w e r e a l l y d i d n 't g e t a t e r r i b l y f i r m p o s i t i o n u n t i l t h e
Taiwan Relations Act, which is a reaction of the Congress to the
- 58 -
C a r t e r a d mi n i s t r a t i o n 's a p p r o a c h .
A n d t h e n t h e r e w a s a b i g d e b a t e , e n o r mo u s d e b a t e , o v e r t h i s
issue, and so the record of the United States, and then Reagan gave
mo r e c o n f i d e n c e t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . T h e r e w a s a v e r y n e g a t i v e
f e e l i n g i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a b o u t t h e mi l i t a r y a n d a b o u t i t s a b i l i t y t o
d o a n y t h i n g i n t h e l a t e '7 0 s a n d e a r l y '8 0 s .
We r e a l l y d i d t h i n k t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w a s g o i n g t o d o mi n a t e A s i a
in those days, and so it goes up and down, and George Bush was very
f o r w a r d l e a n i n g i n s a y i n g w e 'l l d o w h a t e v e r i t t a k e s t o h e l p T a i w a n t o
protect itself when he said that in 2001, and now today with Iraq and
t h e M i d d l e E a s t , y e s , i t 's a v e r y v a g u e s i t u a t i o n . S o d o w e h a v e a n y
assurance of what the U.S. will do?
N o , i t 's - - b u t t h e C h i n e s e , i f t h e w o r s t c a s e , a n d t h e C h i n e s e s a w
t h a t C l i n t o n , w h o t h e y d i d n 't t h i n k w a s a v e r y f i r m n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y
leader, sent two carrier battle groups to the Taiwan Strait. So they
s a i d , o k a y , w e l l , i f h e 'l l d o t h i s , t h e n I t h i n k t h e y w o r k u n d e r t h a t
a s s u mp t i o n .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: T h a n k y o u v e r y mu c h .
Appreciate it greatly.
DR. SUTTER: My pleasure.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : We w i l l a d j o u r n f o r l u n c h a n d
return at 1:15.
[ Wh e r e u p o n , a t 1 2 : 1 5 p . m. , t h e h e a r i n g r e c e s s e d , t o r e c o n v e n e a t
1 : 2 6 p . m. , t h i s s a me d a y . ]

A F T E R N O O N S E S S I O N

PANEL IV: CHINESE METHODS OF ADVANCING

SOVEREIGNTY BY MILITARY MEANS

HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you. The discussion for

P a n e l I V w i l l b e C h i n a 's me t h o d s o f a d v a n c i n g i t s s o v e r e i g n t y b y
mi l i t a r y me a n s .
I 'm p l e a s e d t o i n t r o d u c e t o d a y 's w i t n e s s e s . T h e y a r e M r . P e t e r
D u t t o n , a s s o c i a t e p r o f e s s o r o f s t r a t e g i c s t u d i e s a t t h e N a v a l Wa r
C o l l e g e , a n d M r . R o y K a mp h a u s e n , t h e V i c e P r e s i d e n t f o r P o l i t i c a l a n d
Security Affairs.
I n o t e t h a t M r . D u t t o n i s a r e t i r e d N a v y c o mma n d e r a n d j u d g e
a d v o c a t e . H e 's a n a s s o c i a t e p r o f e s s o r o f j o i n t mi l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n s a t
t h e N a v a l Wa r C o l l e g e a n d a n a d j u n c t p r o f e s s o r a t R o g e r Wi l l i a ms
University School of Law.
H e 's a f o u n d i n g me mb e r o f t h e C o l l e g e 's C h i n a M a r i t i me S t u d i e s
- 59 -
Institute and writes on issues related to U.S. and Chinese perspectives
o n ma r i t i me i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w a s t h e y r e l a t e t o s e c u r i t y .
M r . K a mp h a u s e n , a s I s a i d , i s V i c e P r e s i d e n t f o r P o l i t i c a l a n d
Security Affairs and the Director of the National Bureau of Asian
R e s e a r c h . P r i o r t o j o i n i n g N B R , M r . K a mp h a u s e n s e r v e d a s a U . S .
A r my o f f i c e r , a c a r e e r t h a t c u l mi n a t e d i n a n a s s i g n me n t i n t h e O f f i c e
of the Secretary of Defense as Country Director for China, Taiwan and
Mongolian Affairs.
P r i o r p o s t i n g s i n c l u d e d a s s i g n me n t s t o t h e J o i n t S t a f f a s a n
intelligence analyst and later as the China Branch Chief in the
Directorate of Strategic Plans and Policy.
H e 's f l u e n t i n C h i n e s e a n d h e 's a n A r my C h i n a F o r e i g n A f f a i r s
Officer having served two tours at the Defense Attaché Office of the
U . S . E mb a s s y i n t h e P e o p l e 's R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a .
G e n t l e me n , t h a n k y o u b o t h t o d a y f o r b e i n g h e r e . We l o o k
f o r w a r d t o y o u r c o mme n t s . A s y o u ma y h a v e w i t n e s s e d f r o m o t h e r
p a n e l s , w e 'l l g i v e y o u s e v e n mi n u t e s t o p r e s e n t y o u r v i e w s o r a l l y a n d ,
o f c o u r s e , a n y w r i t t e n s t a t e me n t s w i l l b e e n t e r e d i n t o t h e r e c o r d .
B e f o r e y o u b e g i n , a n d w e 'l l b e g i n w i t h M r . D u t t o n , I 'd l i k e t o
t u r n t o my c o l l e a g u e , C o mmi s s i o n e r F i e d l e r . Do you have any
c o mme n t s ?
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : N o . J u s t w e l c o me , g e n t l e me n .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you. Mr. Dutton, over to
you.

STATEMENT OF MR. PETER A. DUTTON

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, CHINA MARITIME STUDIES
INSTITUTE, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
NEWPORT, RHODE ISLAND

M R . D U T T O N : T h a n k y o u v e r y mu c h f o r t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o
p r e s e n t my v i e w s t o d a y . I 'm q u i t e s i n c e r e h a v i n g b e e n t o t h e mo r n i n g
p a n e l s i n s a y i n g t h a t i t 's a n h o n o r t o b e i n c l u d e d a mo n g t h i s l e a r n e d
c o mp a n y . B u t b e f o r e I b e g i n , I h a v e t o d i s p e n s e w i t h t h e u s u a l
d i s c l a i me r s i n c e I a m a D e p a r t me n t o f D e f e n s e e mp l o y e e b y s a y i n g
t h a t t h e v i e w s t h a t I h a v e a r e my o w n a n d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h o s e o f t h e
D e p a r t me n t o f t h e N a v y o r a n y o t h e r g o v e r n me n t a g e n c y .
I w i l l , h o w e v e r , f o c u s my c o mme n t s t o d a y o n t h e ma r i t i me
d o ma i n s i n c e t h a t i s my b a c k g r o u n d a n d my e x p e r i e n c e . C h i n a i s
p r i ma r i l y i n my v i e w s e e k i n g t o e x t e n d a n d c o n s o l i d a t e i t s s o v e r e i g n t y
rather than to protect it per se. Its strategy is two-pronged.
F i r s t , C h i n a i s a c t i v e l y c h a l l e n g i n g t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y
for authority in areas under its jurisdiction such as the Exclusive
E c o n o mi c Z o n e b y r e c a s t i n g t h e t r a d i t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n
- 60 -
c o a s t a l s t a t e s a n d t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y , a n d p r e s s i n g f o r
enhanced coastal state jurisdiction over traditional international
f r e e d o ms i n c o a s t a l w a t e r s a n d a i r s p a c e .
S e c o n d , C h i n a h a s ma n y c l a i ms o v e r i s l a n d s a n d s e a s p a c e t h a t
are actively disputed by its neighbors. China is consolidating and
d e f e n d i n g i t s h i s t o r i c a l c l a i ms t o i s l a n d s i n t h e E a s t a n d S o u t h C h i n a
S e a a n d , o f c o u r s e , t o t h e ma r i t i me z o n e s t h a t w o u l d a c c r u e t o w h o e v e r
g a i n s u n d i s p u t e d s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r t h e m.
Many of the activities necessary to develop and consolidate
t h e s e c l a i ms a r e n o n - mi l i t a r y o r a t l e a s t n o n - c o e r c i v e i n n a t u r e . T h e y
r e l y o n t h e u s e o f a l l i n s t r u me n t s o f C h i n a 's n a t i o n a l p o w e r . T h a t
s a i d , t h e r e 's a c l e a r mi l i t a r y c o mp o n e n t t o t h i s n o n - c o e r c i v e a s p e c t o f
C h i n a ' s e f f o r t s t o e x p a n d a n d c o n s o l i d a t e i t s c o n t r o l o v e r t h e ma r i t i me
periphery.
S e v e r a l a r t i c l e s i n r e c e n t i s s u e s o f t h e d a i l y n e w s p a p e r R e n mi n
Haijun, for instance, have described Chinese perspective on three what
t h e y c a l l n e w t y p e s o f mo d e r n w a r fa r e , s p e c i f i c a l l y l e g a l w a r f a r e ,
psychological warfare and public opinion warfare.
T h e f o c u s o f e a c h o f t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s i s f u n d a me n t a l l y t o c r e a t e
a n d t o a d v a n c e i n t e r n a t i o n a l a n d d o me s t i c l e g i t i ma c y f o r C h i n a ' s
viewpoint of its sovereign authority.
I n t h e a u t h o r 's w o r d s , l e g a l w a r r i o r s mu s t b e , q u o t e , " f a r s i g h t e d
t o d i s c e r n a n y p r o b l e ms b e f o r e t h e y a c t u a l l y a r i s e " i n o r d e r t o
" p r o v i d e a l e g a l p r e t e x t f o r mi l i t a r y a c t i o n " a n d t o " e n g a g e i n l e g a l
contexts to vie for the legal initiative" in order to "safeguard national
sovereignty and territorial integrity."
There is, of course, in addition to legal warfare, also a
t r a d i t i o n a l mi l i t a r y c o mp o n e n t t o C h i n a 's s o v e r e i g n t y e x t e n s i o n a n d
consolidation strategy, quote, "when reason fails and there are
l e g i t i ma t e g r o u n d s , c a t e g o r i c a l l y a d o p t u n y i e l d i n g mi l i t a r y me a n s . "
It is the blend of coercive and persuasive capacity that appears
t o u n d e r p i n C h i n a 's a p p r o a c h t o c o n s o l i d a t i n g a n d e x p a n d i n g i t s
s o v e r e i g n ma r i t i me i n t e r e s t s .
M y w r i t t e n s u b mi s s i o n g o e s i n s o me d e t a i l i n t o a c o u p l e t h i n g s
I 'l l j u s t t o u c h o n n o w . O n e i s t h a t C h i n a , b e g i n n i n g i n t h e A p r i l 1 E P -
3 incident, took advantage of that opportunity to enunciate a new
approach to its view of sovereignty in airspace off the littorals.
I t h a s f o l l o w e d u p mo r e r e c e n t l y w i t h s t a t e me n t s a b o u t a n
intention to create an Air Defense Identification Zone. I view these in
t e r ms , w e o f t e n s e e t h e t e r m u s e d , " a n t i - a c c e s s s t r a t e g y . " I t h i n k
d i s r u p t i v e s t r a t e g y mi g h t b e a l i t t l e b i t b e t t e r t e r m. T h e e n d s b e i n g t o
a c h i e v e a n t i - a c c e s s , b u t t h e me a n s a n d t h e w a y s a r e d i s r u p t i v e i n
nature.
T h i r d , i n t e r ms o f s o v e r e i g n t y c o n s o l i d a t i o n , my p a p e r d i s c u s s e s
- 61 -
t h e E a s t C h i n a S e a d i s p u t e i n s o me d e t a i l . I 'v e w r i t t e n e x t e n s i v e l y o n
t h a t p a r t i c u l a r t o p i c , a n d i f i t 's o f i n t e r e s t t o t h e c o mmi s s i o n e r s , I c a n
provide copies of the articles on that as well.
F o u r t h , I b e l i e v e C h i n a i s a l s o u si n g i t s v e r s i o n o f s o v e r e i g n t y i n
order to achieve another strategic objective which is to gain regional
p r e d o mi n a n c e . I h e a r d t h i s mo r n i n g 's p a n e l s d i s c u s s t h e c o n c e p t o f
sort of restoration of the tributary order.
I w r i t e a b i t a b o u t t h a t i n my b r i e f , b u t o b v i o u s l y i t 's n o t e x a c t l y
t h e i mp e r i a l t r i b u t a r y o r d e r , a n d I d o n 't t h i n k t h e p a n e l i s t s i n t e n d e d t o
c o n v e y t h a t , b u t i t i s c l e a r l y s o me t h i n g t h a t h a r k e n s b a c k t o a p r i ma c y
o f p o s i t i o n , a p r e d o mi n a n c e - - i s t h e t e r m I u s e - - o f C h i n a 's p o s i t i o n i n
East Asian or I should say Asian affairs.
A c o u p l e o f a u t h o r s t h a t I t h i n k a r e a t p r o mi n e n t p l a c e s , n o t o n l y
i n u n i v e r s i t i e s i n C h i n a b u t a l s o p r o mi n e n t p l a c e s w i t h i n t h o s e
u n i v e r s i t i e s , i n c l u d e Wa n g Y i w e i a t F u d a n U n i v e r s i t y i n S h a n g h a i a n d
Qin Yaqing at China Foreign Affairs University, are writing fairly
extensively on this particular topic.
I n o r d e r t o p r e v e n t A me r i c a n i n t e r f e r e n c e i n C h i n a 's s o v e r e i g n
i n t e r e s t s , i f f o r c e e v e r b e c o me s n e c e s s a r y , s o me C h i n e s e s t r a t e g i s t s
s e e p r e e mp t i o n a s t h e l o g i c a l e x t e n s i o n o f C h i n a 's a c t i v e d e f e n s e
s t r a t e g y i n o r d e r t o ma i n t a i n d o me s t i c a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e g i t i ma c y a n d
l e g i t i ma c y i s k e y i n my v i e w i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g s o me o f t h e C h i n e s e
perspectives.
I n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e t h a t l e g i t i ma c y f o r p r e e mp t i v e u s e o f f o r c e ,
t h e P L A w o u l d n e e d t o b e s e e n a s d e f e n d i n g s o me a s p e c t o f C h i n e s e
s o v e r e i g n t y . F u n d a me n t a l l y , w h a t t h i s d o e s i s i t e n c o u r a g e s t h o s e w h o
are thinking about legal warfare or other aspects of warfare to ensure
t h a t t h e r e a r e s u f f i c i e n t t r i g g e r s o f s o v e r e i g n t y , t h a t i f i t e v e r b e c a me
n e c e s s a r y t o u s e p r e e mp t i v e f o r c e , t h a t t h e y w o u l d b e a v a i l a b l e i n
o r d e r t o l e g i t i ma t e l y p a i n t a p i c t u r e t h a t t h e p r e e mp t i v e u s e o f f o r c e i s
actually a defensive use of force as opposed to an aggressive use of
force.
T h i s p r e s e n t s ma n y c h a l l e n g e s f o r u s , n o t t h e l e a s t o f w h i c h i s ,
n u mb e r o n e , t h a t w e w i l l b e r e q u i r e d t o - - w e l l , w e s e e t h e m c o n t e s t i n g
o u r f r a me w o r k i n w h i c h c o mma n d o f t h e c o mmo n s b e l o n g s t o t h e
i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y , b u t s p e c i f i c a l l y t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n t h e
ma r i t i me d o ma i n . They're challenging it in the littorals very
specifically.
Second challenge that Chinese perspectives on sovereignty
b r i n g s u p , a s w a s d i s c u s s e d t h i s mo r n i n g , i s t h e C h i n e s e v i e w p o i n t o n
international responsibility or rather lack of international
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r h u ma n r i g h t s a b u s e s .
A n d t h i r d , i t 's v e r y c l e a r t h a t a c h a l l e n g e e x i s t s b y C h i n a t o
b e g i n t o r e d e f i n e t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m, mo r e a l o n g t h e l i n e s o f a
- 62 -
s y s t e m f a mi l i a r t o C h i n a 's l o n g - t e r m h i s t o r y . C h i n a h a s s o me a s p e c t s
o f t h e c u r r e n t s y s t e m t h a t t h e y a re d i s s a t i s f i e d w i t h a n d t h e ma n y t h i n k
tanks in China are beginning to take this question very seriously and to
b e g i n t o a r t i c u l a t e a n d r e f r a me s o me c o n c e p t s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l
r e l a t i o n s mo r e a l o n g t h e C h i n e s e t r a d i t i o n a l l i n e s o f s o v e r e i g n t y a n d
the concepts related to it.
C o n s e q u e n c e s - - w e l l , I 'l l s k i p t h a t s i n c e I s e e my t i me i s q u i c k l y
r u n n i n g o u t . F o r u s w e n e e d t o b e g i n t o e n g a g e t h e P e o p l e 's L i b e r a t i o n
A r my a n d t h e i r e n t i r e mi l i t a r y a t a l l l e v e l s . I think that's very
i mp o r t a n t .
Second, we, of course, need to continue to actively pursue
mi l i t a r y s u r v e i l l a n c e a n d r e c o n n a i s s a n c e p r o g r a ms . A l t h o u g h t h i s w i l l
b e a s o u r c e o f f r i c t i o n , i t 's a s o u r c e w e mu s t a c c e p t .
T h i r d , w e n e e d t o c o mmi t t o p r o t e c t i n g t r a d i t i o n a l n a v i g a t i o n a l
f r e e d o ms o f t h e s e a a n d t h e a i r a n d p r o t e c t i n g t h e h i s t o r i c a l b a l a n c e o f
r i g h t s b e t w e e n t h e c o a s t a l s t a t e s a n d t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y .
F i n a l l y , my v i e w i s w e n e e d t o r e ma i n p r e p a r e d t o c o n f r o n t t h e
P L A i f n e c e s s a r y . C o n t i n u i n g A me r i c a ' s c o mmi t me n t t o a s t r o n g n a v a l
p r e s e n c e i s , n u mb e r o n e , o u r c r i t i c a l , a c r i t i c a l r e q u i r e me n t f o r u s t o
b e a b l e t o ma i n t a i n o u r c o r e i n t e r e s t , o u r c o r e s t r a t e g i c s t r e n g t h s o f
s t r a t e g i c mo b i l i t y a n d c o mma n d o f t h e c o mmo n s , t h e ma r i t i me
c o mmo n s o n w h i c h o u r s t r a t e g i c p o s t u r e , o u r n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y s t r a t e g y
relies.
S o t h e s e a r e o u r b e s t me a n s o f p r o t e c t i n g o u r n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s
w h i l e a t t e mp t i n g t o mo v e b e y o n d t h e c u r r e n t c h a l l e n g e s t h a t e x i s t i n
regional security in Asia.
Thank you. 3
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you, Mr. Dutton. Mr.
K a mp h a u s e n , o v e r t o y o u .

STATEMENT OF LTC (Ret.) ROY D. KAMPHAUSEN

VICE PRESIDENT, POLITICAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS
AND DIRECTOR, THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ASIAN
RESEARCH, WASHINGTON, D.C. OFFICE

M R . K A M P H A U S E N : G o o d a f t e r n o o n , C h a i r ma n Wo r t z e l , V i c e
C h a i r B a r t h o l o me w , t o d a y 's h e a r i n g c o c h a i r me n , M r . E s p e r , M r .
F i e d l e r . I t ' s a r e a l h o n o r t o b e h e r e t o t a l k a b o u t t h i s i mp o r t a n t i s s u e
b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d b y t h e C o mmi s s i o n .
I should also begin by noting that while the research sponsored
b y my i n s t i t u t i o n , t h e N a t i o n a l B u r e a u o f A s i a n R e s e a r c h , h a s
i n f o r me d t h e v i e w s I e x p r e s s t o d a y , t h e y a r e my o w n n o n e t h e l e s s a n d

3
Click here to read the prepared statement of Mr. Peter A. Dutton
- 63 -
do not represent institutional perspectives.
I n my w r i t t e n s t a t e me n t , I p u t f o r t h a n a r g u me n t t h a t t h e P R C
u s e s i t s P e o p l e 's L i b e r a t i o n A r my t o p r o t e c t a n d a d v a n c e C h i n e s e
s o v e r e i g n t y i n t e r e s t s i n f o u r w a y s , a n d I 'd l i k e u s i n g t h e t i me a v a i l a b l e
t o b r i e f l y h i g h l i g h t p o i n t s f r o m my s t a t e me n t .
First, I argue that the PLA advances Chinese sovereignty at its
mo s t f u n d a me n t a l l e v e l b y e n g a g i n g i n a n a mb i t i o u s p r o g r a m o f
mi l i t a r y mo d e r n i z a t i o n . A n d t h e C o mmi s s i o n i s w e l l a w a r e o f ma n y o f
t h e d i me n s i o n s o f t h i s p r o g r a m. I t 's a n i n t e g r a t e d a n d c o mp r e h e n s i v e
effort now in its second decade.
Wh i l e i t ' s t r u e t h a t ma n y o f t h e d e t a i l s o f t h i s e f f o r t s u f f e r f r o m
a l a c k o f C h i n e s e t r a n s p a r e n c y , i t s e e ms t o me t h e e n d g o a l f o r t h e
process if quite clear and it bears on our considerations today.
A n d t h a t i s t h a t i n g e n e r a l t e r ms B e i j i n g s e e k s a mi l i t a r y t h a t i s
c o mme n s u r a t e a n d b e f i t t i n g o f C h i n a 's s t a t u s a s a r e g i o n a l l e a d e r a n d
rising global power. And so achieving this end state is an essential
c o mp o n e n t o f d e f e n d i n g C h i n a 's s o v e r e i g n t y .
A t a s e c o n d l e v e l o r s e c o n d me t h o d b y w h i c h C h i n a 's mi l i t a r y
s u p p o r t s t h e e n l a r g e me n t o f C h i n e s e s o v e r e i g n t y i n c l u d e s t h e s p e c i f i c
w a y s i n w h i c h t h e P L A e n h a n c e s C h i n a 's s t a t u s a s a s t a k e h o l d e r i n t h e
n a t i o n a l s y s t e m. A n d I a r g u e t h e y d o s o i n a t l e a s t t w o w a y s .
F i r s t , t h e P L A i s mu c h mo r e a c t i v e l y i n v o l v e d i n s u p p o r t i n g
U.N. peacekeeping operations. As recently as 2004, China was playing
a mu c h s ma l l e r r o l e i n s u p p o r t o f U . N . P K O . H o w e v e r , s i n c e t h a t t i me
PLA contributions to U.N. peacekeeping operations have increased
d r a ma t i c a l l y .
In fact, according to U.N. statistics from January 2008, China is
now the largest provider of troops to U.N. peacekeeping operations
a mo n g t h e P - 5 me mb e r s o f t h e U . N . S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l , me a s u r e d b o t h
i n t e r ms o f n u mb e r s o f t r o o p s i n t h e f i e l d - - n e a r l y 2 , 0 0 0 - - a n d i n
mi s s i o n p a r t i c i p a t i o n .
I n t e r e s t i n g l y , t h e P L A c u r r e n t l y s u p p o r t s 1 3 mi s s i o n s , c u r r e n t l y ,
a n d t h a t 's t h e t o t a l n u mb e r o f mi s s i o n s t h a t t h e P L A p a r t i c i p a t e d i n a
n e a r l y 1 4 - y e a r p e r i o d p r e v i o u s l y . R e ma r k a b l e c h a n g e t h e r e .
Now, increased support for U.N. PKO is a practical way to
e n h a n c e C h i n e s e s o v e r e i g n t y b y d e mo n s t r a t i n g t h e s t a t u s q u o n a t u r e o f
C h i n e s e p o w e r i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y 's mo s t p r o mi n e n t
institution. This support would also appear to have the practical
b e n e f i t o f c r e a t i n g a p o s i t i v e e n v i r o n me n t i n t h a t i n s t i t u t i o n f o r t h e
mo r e s p e c i f i c d e ma n d s C h i n a mi g h t ma k e t h a t h a v e e x p l i c i t l i n k s t o
specific Chinese sovereignty questions.
S e c o n d l y , t h e P L A a l s o a c t s t o e n h a n c e C h i n a 's i n t e r n a t i o n a l
s t a t u s b y i n c r e a s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n mu l t i l a t e r a l o p e r a t i o n s a n d
e x e r c i s e s , i n l a r g e p a r t b e c a u s e t h e s e e x e r c i s e s , mo s t l y c o n d u c t e d
- 64 -
under the rubric of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, are
focused on counter-terrorist activity, counter-terrorist operations. And
so leading regional coalitions in counterterrorism activities serves
i mp o r t a n t r e g i o n a l a n d g l o b a l g o a l s ; h e n c e , t h e e n h a n c e me n t t h e y
provide to a greater stakeholder position.
H o w e v e r , c o n d u c t i n g C T a l s o e n h a n c e d s o v e r e i g n t y i n C h i n a 's
s p e c i f i c c a s e b e c a u s e o f t h e l i n k a g e t h a t B e i j i n g h a s ma d e b e t w e e n
terrorists and separatists.
A t h i r d w a y i n w h i c h C h i n a 's mi l i t a r y e n h a n c e s n a t i o n a l
s o v e r e i g n t y c l a i ms i s t h r o u g h a mu c h mo r e a c t i v e p r o g r a m o f mi l i t a r y
e n g a g e me n t i n A s i a . These activities range from the "presence"
mi s s i o n s , p r i ma r i l y c o n d u c t e d b y t h e C h i n e s e N a v y , t h a t s h o w t h e f l a g
a n d s e r v e t o r e i n f o r c e a r e g i o n a l i mp r e s s i o n o f i n c r e a s i n g C h i n e s e
mi l i t a r y a c t i v i t y , a n d c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e d a i r s u r v e i l l a n c e , s u b ma r i n e
patrols, surface patrols, and so forth, including in contested areas, and
it's an honor to participate with Mr. Dutton today, who has done such
i mp o r t a n t w o r k o n ma n y o f t h e s e i s s u e s .
N o w n o n e o f t h e s e a c t i o n s a r e u n i q u e t o C h i n a a n d t h e y 'r e
c e r t a i n l y p e r mi s s i b l e u n d e r c u s t o ma r y i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w a n d U . N .
Convention on the Law of the Sea, but two points are noteworthy.
F i r s t , t h e P L A h a s v e r y r a p i d l y a d o p t e d t h i s mu c h mo r e a c t i v i s t
p o s t u r e , a n d t h e r a t e o f c h a n g e i t s e l f h a s r a i s e d c o n c e r n i n ma n y
quarters.
S e c o n d l y , a n d mo r e i mp o r t a n t l y I t h i n k , i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e
a c t i o n s a r e t a k e n a s p a r t o f a n i n t e g r a t e d p o l i t i c a l - mi l i t a r y e f f o r t t o
b r i n g a b o u t p o l i c y r e s o l u t i o n o n s o me o f t h e s e d i f f i c u l t i s s u e s o n t e r ms
mo r e f a v o r a b l e t o C h i n a . I t 's a n a t u r a l c o u r s e o f a c t i o n , n a t u r a l
approach, but it does appear to have an integrated political and
mi l i t a r y s e t o f c o mp o n e n t s t o i t .
The fourth and final way in which the PLA acts to support
Chinese sovereignty is by undertaking the deterrent actions that
c o n s t i t u t e t h e mi l i t a r y c o mp o n e n t o f a n a t i o n a l s t r a t e g y t o p r e v e n t d e
jure Taiwan independence. These deterrent actions include the
p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r a c t u a l mi l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n s a g a i n s t T a i w a n , a n d h e r e
p r e p a r a t i o n s s h o u l d n o t b e c o n s t r u e d t o me a n t h a t c o n f l i c t i s
i n e v i t a b l e , a s a l l mi l i t a r i e s p r e p a r e f o r a r a n g e o f c o n t i n g e n c i e s , ma n y
of which are never executed.
But they are conducting this preparation nonetheless. And the
d e t e r r e n t a c t i o n s a l s o i n c l u d e t h e a c c e l e r a t i n g d e v e l o p me n t o f C h i n a 's
b a l l i s t i c mi s s i l e f o r c e s w h i c h c o u l d a d mi n i s t e r p u n i s h i n g s t r i k e s o n
Taiwan on very short notice currently.
This capability, this latter capability, has already achieved a
d e g r e e o f mi l i t a r y d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t i n T a i p e i , a n d h a s c e r t a i n l y
c o mp l i c a t e d s e c u r i t y p l a n n i n g e l s e w h e r e i n c l u d i n g i n t h e U . S .
- 65 -
 B u t b e y o n d s i mp l y a c t i n g t o p r e v e n t T a i w a n i n d e p e n d e n c e , t h e
PLA is also putting into place a series of capabilities that would deny
or delay the arrival of foreign forces in the western Pacific in the
event of a Taiwan crisis.
T h e p u r p o s e o f t h e s e c a p a b i l i t i e s , i t s e e ms t o me , a p p e a r s t o b e
a n e f f o r t t o d e l a y o r d e n y t h e mi l i t a r y a c t i o n s o f f o r e i g n f o r c e s t h a t
w o u l d f u n d a me n t a l l y e n d a n g e r C h i n e s e s o v e r e i g n t y c l a i ms o n T a i w a n ,
s o t h e r e 's b o t h a n o p e r a t i o n a l a n d t a c t i c a l c o mp o n e n t t o t h i s , a n d
t h e r e ' s a l s o a mo r e t h e o r e t i c a l s o v e r e i g n t y c o mp o n e n t t o i t .
We l l , i n c o n c l u s i o n , l e t me ma k e o n e q u i c k p o i n t a b o u t
i mp l i c a t i o n s . A mo r e r o b u s t C h i n e s e mi l i t a r y a c t i v i t y , s e t o f mi l i t a r y
activities, in the Asia-Pacific region to enhance Chinese sovereignty
ma y l e a d t o t w o s o me w h a t o p p o s i n g o u t c o me s :
I f C h i n a 's g r o w i n g mi l i t a r y p o w e r i s d e f t l y w i e l d e d a n d i t s
s t r a t e g y o f p r a g ma t i s m, n o n i n t e r f e r e n c e , a n d a n i n c r e a s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n
i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l f o r a i s s u s t a i n e d , B e i j i n g mi g h t e n h a n c e r e g i o n a l
s e c u r i t y , a s i t u n d e r s t a n d s i t , b e c a u s e i t s n e i g h b o r s r e c o g n i z e , mi g h t
r e c o g n i z e , t h e s t a b i l i z i n g v a l u e o f i n c r e a s e d C h i n e s e mi l i t a r y a c t i v i s m
o n t h e i r o w n t e r ms .
A t t h e s a me t i me , h o w e v e r , t h i s a c t i v i s m i s r i s k y f r o m B e i j i n g 's
p e r s p e c t i v e , p a r t i c u l a r l y a s i t p e r t a i n s t o T a i w a n , a s t h i s e f f o r t mi g h t
f u r t h e r ma r g i n a l i z e T a i w a n w i t h i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y a n d ,
t h u s , o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e ma i n l a n d 's e f f o r t s w o u l d b e h a r d e n e d w i t h i n
Taiwan.
C o n s e q u e n t l y , a c h i e f g o a l o f C h i n a 's mi l i t a r y p r o g r a m t o
a d v a n c e s o v e r e i g n t y c o u l d b e p u t a t r i s k b y t h e v e r y me a n s t h a t t h e y
a r e u n d e r t a k i n g t o a c c o mp l i s h i t .
T h i s c o n c l u d e s my s t a t e me n t . I 'm v e r y h a p p y a n d l o o k f o r w a r d
to your questions. Thank you. 4

P a n e l I V : D i s c u s s i o n , Q u e s t i o n s a n d A n s we r s

H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : T h a n k y o u , M r . K a mp h a u s e n . We
w i l l b e g i n t h e q u e s t i o n i n g n o w . I 'm g o i n g t o t u r n f i r s t t o
C o mmi s s i o n e r F i e d l e r , my c o c h a i r , a n d t h e n h e 'l l b e f o l l o w e d b y
C o mmi s s i o n e r Wo r t z e l a n d C o mmi s s i o n e r R e i n s c h .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: A quick question, Mr. Dutton.
I w a s r e a d i n g t h r o u g h y o u r t e s t i mo n y o n t h e C o n t i n e n t a l S h e l f a n d w a s
s t r u c k b y y o u r me n t i o n o f C h i n e s e s c h o l a r s c l a i mi n g b a c k t o t h e I c e
A g e t h a t t h e C o n t i n e n t a l S h e l f w a s ma i n l a n d a c t u a l g r o u n d , a n d i t h a s
receded since the Ice Age.

4
Click here to read the prepared statement of Roy D. Kamphausen
- 66 -
 D o y o u k n o w a n y o t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t s c h o l a r a n d a n y ma j o r p o w e r
t h a t h a s ma d e a s i mi l a r r e a c h b a c k w a r d ?
M R . D U T T O N : I d o n 't .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: To justify their claim of
sovereignty to Continental Shelf?
M R . D U T T O N : I d o n 't a c t u a l l y . I w i l l s a y t h a t i t i s e v e n w i t h i n
t h e C h i n e s e c o n t e x t a b i t o f h y p er b o l e , b u t I u s e d i t o n p u r p o s e
b e c a u s e i t r e a l l y d e mo n s t r a t e s t h e s o r t o f s e n s e o f n a t i o n a l a t t a c h me n t ,
the sense of ownership that is existent and perhaps even fostered
w i t h i n C h i n e s e s o c i e t y o v e r t h e ma r i t i me r e a c h e s , t h e p e r i p h e r y o f f
t h e i r c o a s t l i n e a s a ma t t e r o f t h e e x t e n s i o n o f t h e i r c o n t i n e n t a l
sovereignty.
There is a thread of international law that does sort of support
t h a t g e n e r a l c o n c e p t . T h a t 's w h e r e t h e C o n t i n e n t a l S h e l f o w n e r s h i p
r i g h t s c a me f r o m, a n d my p o i n t i s t h a t t h e C h i n e s e h a v e t a k e n i t a t
least a step further than it was initially drafted to be.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : T h a n k y o u . M r . K a mp h a u s e n ,
t h e r e f e r e n c e t o T a i w a n , t h e S t r a i t s , a n d M r . D u t t o n 's e a r l i e r r e f e r e n c e
to disruptive strategies in reference to what is otherwise known as
a n t i - a c c e s s , w h a t i s t h e mo s t s i g n i f i c a n t c h a n g e b e t w e e n t h e t i me
P r e s i d e n t C l i n t o n s e n t t h e f l e e t i n i n 1 9 9 6 - - w a s i t - - t o 2 0 0 6 t h a t ma k e s
that a riskier venture for the United States?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I think there are three areas. The first is
i mp r o v e d Chinese space capabilities including their own
reconnaissance and abilities to perhaps counter the satellite
capabilities of other countries.
S e c o n d , a d r a ma t i c a l l y i mp r o v e d c o n v e n t i o n a l a t t a c k s u b ma r i n e
force.
And third, what we understand to be an evolving capability to
p u t ma n e u v e r a b l e b a l l i s t i c mi s s i l e s , t o b e a b l e t o t a r g e t ma n e u v e r a b l e
b a l l i s t i c mi s s i l e s a g a i n s t s h i p s a t s e a , a i r c r a f t c a r r i e r s , f o r i n s t a n c e .
So I think the three of those capabilities, while they were
p r o b a b l y c e r t a i n l y e n t r a i n e d i n t h e mi d - '9 0 s , n o w a r e mu c h mo r e
ma t u r e a n d p o s e mu c h g r e a t e r r i s k t o A me r i c a n f o r c e s i n t h e w e s t e r n
Pacific in an operational crisis.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : M r . D u t t o n , y o u 'r e s h a k i n g
your head yes; you agree with everything? Anything to add to that?
MR. DUTTON: I do agree with all of those. A fourth thing that
c o me s t o mi n d , t h o u g h , w o u l d b e i n c r e a s e d e x p e r i e n c e f r a n k l y , t h a t t h e
C h i n e s e a r e mu c h mo r e e x p e r i e n c e d a t v e n t u r i n g b e y o n d t h e l i t t o r a l
region and threatening the United States' ability to project forces into
the Taiwan Straits area if necessary.
S o i n a d d i t i o n t o i n c r e a s e d c a p a b i l i t i e s , w e s e e s o me s t e a d y ,
i n c r e me n t a l i n c r e a s i n g i n e x p e r i e n c e .
- 67 -
 HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Since both of you have served
f o r a l o n g t i me w i t h i n t h e g o v e r n me n t i n t h e d e f e n s e c o mmu n i t y , w a s
their rapid ability to deny us access or increase the risk of us taking
that action a surprise? Anticipated?
M R . D U T T O N : I c a n s a y f r o m my o w n p e r s p e c t i v e i t h a s n o t
b e e n a s u r p r i s e g i v e n t h e s t a t e d o b j e c t i v e s . I t 's a r e l a t i v e l y l o w - c o s t
approach to achieving either sufficient deterrence or the ability to
s u c c e e d i n y o u r s t r a t e g i c o b j e c t i v e w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o o v e r c o me t h e
e n e my . A n d s o i t h a s s e e me d t o me , a s I 'v e w a t c h e d i t d e v e l o p , t o b e a
sensible approach from that perspective in that it's an efficient
approach to that objective.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : L e t me r e p h r a s e t h e q u e s t i o n .
I u n d e r s t a n d l e t 's s a y y o u w e r e n 't s u r p r i s e d ; w h a t a b o u t t h e
g o v e r n me n t i n g e n e r a l , I me a n p e o p l e i n p o l i c y ma k i n g p o s i t i o n s ?
We r e w e t a k e n a b a c k b y t h i s r a p i d a b i l i t y t o q u e s t i o n o u r a b i l i t y t o
mo v e i n t o t h e S t r a i t ?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I think since the Straits' crisis of '95-'96,
i t 's b e e n g e n e r a l l y u n d e r s t o o d b y A me r i c a n d e f e n s e a n d s e c u r i t y
p o l i c y ma k e r s t h a t t h e C h i n e s e h a v e c o n c e i v e d o f a n A me r i c a n r o l e i n a
T a i w a n c r i s i s mu c h mo r e s e r i o u s l y . A n d s o o n t h a t b a s i s , w h i l e t h e
s p e c i f i c d i me n s i o n s o f t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s d i d n ' t b e c o me e v i d e n t u n t i l
s o me y e a r s l a t e r , t h a t t h e y w o u l d h a v e t o p r e p a r e f o r U . S . i n v o l v e me n t
w a s c l e a r f r o m t h e l a t e '9 0 s .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Thank you.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r Wo r t z e l .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : G e n t l e me n , t h a n k s f o r y o u r t e s t i mo n y .
The written and oral both were great. I have two questions, and I will
a s k t h a t e a c h o f y o u t o r e s p o n d t o t h e m.
T h e f i r s t i s h o w d o y o u e i t h e r e x p l a i n o r i n t e r p r e t B e i j i n g 's
patience in resolving its regional disputes over sovereignty? Are there
t e mp o r a l l i mi t s t o t h a t p a t i e n c e o r i s i t a q u e s t i o n o f mi l i t a r y
capability?
T h e s e c o n d i s i f y o u b e l i e v e w e s h o u l d h a v e a f r a me w o r k t o t a l k
a b o u t i s s u e s o f s o v e r e i g n t y a n d f r e e d o m o f t h e s e a s , w h a t me c h a n i s ms
w o u l d y o u r e c o mme n d o r h o w c a n w e a d v a n c e a f r a me w o r k i n w h i c h
C h i n a a n d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c a n r e a c h s o me t a c i t u n d e r s t a n d i n g s , i f n o t
a g r e e me n t , a b o u t w h a t i s t h e mi l i t a r y u s e o f a i r s p a c e o r ma r i t i me s p a c e
v e r s u s t h e A me r i c a n a p p r o a c h o f n o n a g g r e s s i v e u s e o f t h a t s a me
space?
C a n w e c o me u p w i t h s o me w a y t o a d d r e s s t h a t ?
M R . D U T T O N : F r o m my p e r s p e c t i v e , p a t i e n c e o v e r t h e ma r i t i me
dispute resolution process, both in the East China Sea and the South
C h i n a S e a , i s r e f l e c t i v e o f t h e f a c t t h a t C h i n a h a s l a r g e r g o a l s i n mi n d
t h a n s i mp l y t h e s e t t l e me n t o f e a c h o f t h e d i s p u t e s .
- 68 -
 M y v i e w i s t h a t t h e E a s t C h i n a S e a i s s u e i s f u n d a me n t a l l y a b o u t -
-I use the term "shouldering"--I'm a soccer player--right--shouldering
f o r p r e d o mi n a n c e i n A s i a f r a n k l y . T h e y r e c o g n i z e t h a t o u t s i d e o r
rather from within Asia, Japan is their only real rival and that by
ma i n t a i n i n g a ma n a g e d c o n f r o n t a t i o n , a n a p p r o a c h o f ma n a g e d
confrontation in the East China Sea, China gains a lot.
N u mb e r one, t h e y 'r e able to ma i n t a i n the strategic
c o mmu n i c a t i o n t h a t J a p a n i s t r y i n g t o , y e t a g a i n , e n c r o a c h o n t h e
t e r r i t o r y o f o t h e r A s i a n s a n d t h a t C h i n a i s mu c h mo r e a c o o p e r a t i o n i s t
and would never do such a thing.
I n t h e S o u t h C h i n a S e a , s i mi l a r l y , C h i n a , I h e a r d t e s t i mo n y t h i s
mo r n i n g a b o u t t a c t i c a l v e r s u s s t r a t e g i c d e s i g n s , a n d I w o u l d a g r e e w i t h
that. T h e i r l o n g - t e r m s t r a t e g y , I t h i n k , r e ma i n s t o a c h i e v e f u l l
s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r t h a t r e g i o n , b u t t h e y 'r e w i l l i n g t o ma k e s o me s o r t o f
t a c t i c a l c o n c e s s i o n s i n t h e s h o r t t e r m i n o r d e r t o , a g a i n , ma i n t a i n a
s t r a t e g i c c o mmu n i c a t i o n w i t h t h e A S E A N s t a t e s t h a t t h e y a r e t h e g o o d
n e i g h b o r , a n d t h a t t h e y 'r e w i l l i n g t o b e , t h a t t h e y 'r e n o t
c o n f r o n t a t i o n a l , t h e y 'r e n o t a g g r e s s i v e .
S o w i t h i n t h e A s i a n s p h e r e , ma i n t a i n i n g t h e s e c o n f r o n t a t i o n s a n d
d e a l i n g w i t h t h e m i n d i f f e r e n t w a y s ma i n t a i n s t h i s , f u r t h e r s t h e i r
s t r a t e g i c i n t e r e s t o f a c h i e v i n g r e g i o n a l p r e d o mi n a n c e .
A d d i t i o n a l l y , w i t h i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s p h e r e , t h e r e 's a l w a y s a
j u x t a p o s i t i o n w i t h A me r i c a n u s e o f f o r c e t o a c h i e v e i t s o b j e c t i v e s a s
o p p o s e d t o C h i n a 's p o s i t i o n i n g i t s e l f a s t h e p e a c e f u l n e g o t i a t o r t o
r e s o l v e i t s p e r s p e c t i v e . S o t h a t w o u l d b e my f i r s t a n s w e r .
S e c o n d , i n t e r m o f f r a me w o r k w i t h d e a l i n g w i t h s o me o f t h e s e
issues would be--I have to say I am actually a supporter. My eyes are
w i d e o p e n , b u t my e y e s a r e o p e n t o t h e f a c t t h a t I t h i n k w e w o u l d
b e n e f i t f r o m f u l l me mb e r s h i p i n t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s C o n v e n t i o n o n t h e
Law of the Sea.
A n d f u n d a me n t a l l y , i t 's b e c a u s e t h e r e a r e r e a l l y t w o p r o b l e ms
t h a t w e a r e c o n f r o n t i n g b y r e ma i n i n g o u t s i d e i t . O n e o f t h e m i s t h a t
t h e 1 5 5 c o u n t r i e s a r e me mb e r s o f t h e C o n v e n t i o n a n d C h i n a i s a c t i v e l y
p u r s u i n g t h e m f r o m w i t h i n t h e me c h a n i s ms o f t h e C o n v e n t i o n .
C h i n a , f o r i n s t a n c e , G a o Z h i g u o , a g e n t l e ma n I r e s p e c t , w a s j u s t
appointed to the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea. The
U n i t e d S t a t e s d o e s n 't h a v e a me mb e r o n t h a t p a n e l .
In other words, the Law of the Sea and the conversations about
t h e L a w o f t h e S e a a r e g o i n g o n w i t h o u t u s b e c a u s e w e 'r e n o t me mb e r s
of the Convention.
S e c o n d l y , w h a t t h a t d o e s , i t f e e d s i n t o C h i n a 's s t r a t e g i c
c o mmu n i c a t i o n s f r a n k l y , t h a t w e a r e o u t s i d e r s , t h a t w e u s e a g g r e s s i o n
r a t h e r t h a n a c c o mmo d a t i o n t o s o l v e o u r p r o b l e ms , w h e r e a s C h i n a i s
mu c h mo r e a c c o mmo d a t i o n i s t .
- 69 -
 Wh a t t h a t d o e s l e a v e u s w i t h i s i n o r d e r t o ma i n t a i n o u r
p e r s p e c t i v e s o n t h e L a w o f t h e S e a , a n d I d o n 't t h i n k w e n e e d e v e r t o
give up one iota of them were we to join the Convention or not, what
we are constantly having to deal with is friction--right--because
i n s t e a d o f h a v i n g t h e a v e n u e w i t h i n t h e me c h a n i s ms o f t h e C o n v e n t i o n
t o d e a l w i t h t h e s e i s s u e s , w e 'r e c o n s t a n t l y o n t h e o u t s i d e , a s s e r t i n g
freedom of navigation, for instance.
I a l s o b e l i e v e t h e M a r i t i me M i l i t a r y C o n s u l t a t i v e A g r e e me n t i s a
g o o d p r o c e s s . I t 's a g o o d s t a r t o f a p r o c e s s . P e r h a p s a n I n c i d e n t s a t
S e a A g r e e me n t s i mi l a r t o w h a t w e h a d w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a n d t h e
D a n g e r o u s M i l i t a r y A c t i v i t i e s A g r e e me n t t h a t f o l l o w e d i t , I t h i n k ,
would be a good process for us to begin with China so that there is
a c t u a l l y a me c h a n i s m b y w h i c h w h e n t h e n e x t E P - 3 i n c i d e n t d o e s o c c u r
o r t h e n e x t B o w d i t c h i n c i d e n t d o e s o c c u r , w e 'l l h a v e a me c h a n i s m t o
begin to talk about that rather than having to ad hoc invent an answer
e v e r y t i me .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : M r . C h a i r ma n , i f w e h a v e t i me .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : A b s o l u t e l y . M r . K a mp h a u s e n , i f
you can answer the questions, please.
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : C h a i r ma n Wo r t z e l , w i t h r e g a r d t o y o u r
first question, how do we explain the appearance of tolerance or
t e mp e r a n c e o r p a t i e n c e i n s o l v i n g d i s p u t e s , a n d , y o u k n o w , a s l i t t l e a s
t w o d e c a d e s a g o , t h e r e w e r e mo r e t h a n a d o z e n l a n d d i s p u t e s a n d a
l a r g e n u mb e r o f ma r i t i me d i s p u t e s a s w e l l .
I t h i n k t h e a n s w e r i s n o t a c u l t u r a l o n e . I t h i n k i t 's b a s e d o n
C h i n e s e i n t e r e s t s . I w o u l d c o mme n d t o t h e C o mmi s s i o n s o me w o r k
done by a professor at MIT, Taylor Fravel, who has really done a very
s y s t e ma t i c a p p r o a c h t o u n d e r s t a n d i n g e a c h o n e o f t h e b o r d e r d i s p u t e s
that China has, and his conclusions are pretty interesting, including
that China resolves them for a variety of reasons, not only when
t h e y 'r e i n a p o s i t i o n o f w e a k n e s s b u t s o me t i me s w h e n t h e y 'r e i n a
position of strength.
Now, that very flexibility, though, points to another aspect,
w h i c h i s a b i t o f a c o n u n d r u m, i f y o u w i l l . Wh y w o u l d t h e y
d e mo n s t r a t e t h i s f l e x i b i l i t y w h e n t h e y h o l d t h e p r i n c i p l e o f t h e
inviolateness of their territories so highly? In other words, why would
they ever give up one inch?
I think we need to hold our understanding of their approach
s o me w h a t i n a b i t o f t e n s i o n b e c a u s e b o t h o f t h o s e a s p e c t s a r e p r e s e n t .
But I think it does go to an understanding of their proper
r e g i o n a l r o l e a n d o v e r t i me t h e y s e e a v a r i e t y o f me t h o d s t h a t w i l l g e t
t h e m t o t h e p l a c e o f p r e e mi n e n t p o s i t i o n i n t h e r e g i o n , a n d p a r t o f t h a t
i s t h e y g o t t o h a v e t h e i r b o r d e r s f u l l y d e ma r c a t e d , p e r i o d .
Wi t h r e g a r d t o a f r a me w o r k , I a g r e e w i t h w h a t M r . D u t t o n h a s
- 70 -
said. As a participant in several years' worth of those Military
M a r i t i me C o n s u l t a t i v e A g r e e me n t t al k s , o u r f u n d a me n t a l i s s u e w a s
t h a t w e w a n t e d t o b e a b l e t o o p e r a t e s a f e l y i n t h e a i r a n d ma r i t i me
d o ma i n s u n d e r t h e r u b r i c o f U N C L O S , a n d t h e C h i n e s e c o n c e r n w a s
that we were there in the first place, and it posed a national security
t h r e a t t o t h e m e v e n t h o u g h w e w e r e o p e r a t i n g p r o p e r l y a s p e r mi t t e d
under UNCLOS.
Wh e n o u r r e s p o n s e t o t h e m w o u l d b e w e 'r e a l l o w e d t o d o t h i s ,
t h e y w o u l d s a y , w e l l , y o u 'r e n o t p a r t y t o t h e C o n v e n t i o n a n d w h i l e w e
u n d e r s t a n d t h a t y o u r mi l i t a r y h a v e mo d i f i e d y o u r o p e r a t i n g p a t t e r n s s o
t h a t y o u a r e i n c o n c e r t w i t h i t , y o u r c o u n t r y i s n o t a s i g n a t o r y , y o u 'r e
n o t a me mb e r . A n d t h e y w o u l d k i n d o f h e d g e u s o f f a t t h e s t a r t i n g
p o i n t a n d w e w e r e n o t a b l e t o u s e me mb e r s h i p t h a t w e s h a r e d w i t h
t h e m a s a t o o l t o mo v e f o r w a r d t h e a c c o mp l i s h me n t o f o u r o w n
interests.
S o I t h i n k t h a t 's t h e f i r s t a n s w e r t o y o u r s e c o n d q u e s t i o n . T h e
s e c o n d p a r t i s d o w e n e e d a b i l a t e r a l a r r a n g e me n t ? I w o u l d u r g e t h a t
w e t h i n k v e r y s e r i o u s l y a n d v e r y h a r d a b o u t w h e t h e r t h a t 's i n d e e d
n e c e s s a r y . We c o u l d w e l l c r e a t e o r i n t h i s c a s e r e c r e a t e a p h e n o me n o n
w h i c h o c c u r s i n ma n y o t h e r d i me n s i o n s i n w h i c h w e h a v e a s p e c i a l
C h i n a r u l e , a n d s o w e e s t a b l i s h a b i l a t e r a l U . S . - C h i n a a r r a n g e me n t o r
a g r e e me n t t h a t g o v e r n s o u r a c t i v i t i e s a n d n o w i t i s s e p a r a t e a n d a p a r t ,
a n d f r a n k l y f r o m t h e C h i n e s e p e r s p e c t i v e , t h e y 'l l p a y mo r e a t t e n t i o n t o
i t t h a n t h e b r o a d e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l r u l e s t h a t mi g h t b e i n p l a y .
So I think that we need to push our interaction with the Chinese
o n t h i s p o i n t t o t h e b r o a d e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l f r a me w o r k . I t h i n k w e n e e d
t o b e a r i n mi n d , t o o , t h a t t h o s e s p e c i f i c a g r e e me n t s t h a t w e r e s t r u c k
w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n r e f l e c t e d a n e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t e r a a n d a mi l i t a r y
w h o s e c a p a b i l i t i e s w e r e g l o b a l a t t h e t i me . We d i d n 't h a v e U N C L O S ,
a t l e a s t i n t h e c a s e o f t h e I N C S E A , a n d s o t h e e n v i r o n me n t h a s
changed such, and establishing I guess a separate U.S.-China
a r r a n g e me n t t o g o v e r n t h e s e t h i n g s I t h i n k ma y n o t s e r v e o u r o w n
i n t e r e s t s s o w e l l o v e r t h e l o n g e r t e r m.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : G o o d . T h a n k y o u . We 'l l n o w t u r n
t o C o mmi s s i o n e r R e i n s c h a n d t h e n h e 'l l b e f o l l o w e d b y C o mmi s s i o n e r
M u l l o y a n d t h e n C o mmi s s i o n e r B a r t h o l o me w .
C O M M I S S I O N E R R E I N S C H : T h a n k y o u . L e t me p u r s u e t h i s
l a s t t o p i c a l i t t l e b i t mo r e b u t i n a n i n f o r ma l r a t h e r t h a n a n a g r e e me n t
context.
C a n e i t h e r o f y o u c o mme n t o n t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f n a v a l
c o o p e r a t i o n b e t w e e n C h i n a a n d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , me a n i n g mi l i t a r y
c o o p e r a t i o n , n o t me r c h a n t f l e e t s ?
M R . D U T T O N : R i g h t . T h e r e 's r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e i n t e r a c t i o n a n d
i n a f o r ma l a p p r o a c h t h a t I c a n s e e . T h e r e a r e c e r t a i n l y h i g h l e v e l
- 71 -
e x c h a n g e s a n d t h e r e a r e a c a d e mi c e x c h a n g e s . I 'v e p a r t i c i p a t e d i n
t h o s e . T h e r e a r e c o n f e r e n c e s , e t c e t e r a . We c e r t a i n l y d o n 't s e e , o t h e r
t h a n i n H o n g K o n g , w e d o n 't s e e a s h i p v i s i t p r o g r a m. We d o n 't s e e
a n y r e a l e x e r c i s e s . I t h i n k i f me mo r y s e r v e s c o r r e c t l y , t h e r e w a s a
b r i e f p a s s i n g e x e r c i s e a t o n e p o i n t , b u t n o e x e r c i s e p r o g r a m.
C O M M I S S I O N E R R E I N S C H : I s t h i s b e c a u s e w e 'r e r e l u c t a n t o r
t h e y 'r e r e l u c t a n t o r b o t h ?
M R . D U T T O N : I d o n 't k n o w t h e a n s w e r t o t h a t .
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : We a c t u a l l y h a v e d o n e a c o u p l e o f v e r y
r u d i me n t a r y n a v a l s e a r c h a n d r e s c u e e x e r c i s e s i n t h e l a s t c o u p l e o f
y e a r s , b u t t h e y 'r e r e a l l y b a s i c . And at an operational level, the
D e p a r t me n t o f D e f e n s e h a s c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t t h e S e c r e t a r y mu s t r e p o r t
to Congress that he has not authorized interaction with the Chinese
mi l i t a r y t h a t mi g h t ma t e r i a l l y o r s u b s t a n t i a l l y i mp r o v e t h e i r
capabilities in 12 different categories.
S o t h e r e 's a r e a l r e l u c t a n c e , f r a n k l y , t o l e a n f o r w a r d t o o mu c h i n
t h e o p e r a t i o n a l d o ma i n f r o m d e f e n s e p e r s p e c t i v e .
C O M M I S S I O N E R R E I N S C H : I 'm t e mp t e d t o a s k b o t h o f y o u i f
y o u t h i n k t h a t 's a w i s e p o l i c y , b u t I t h i n k t h a t I 'l l p r o b a b l y n o t p u r s u e
t h a t u n d e r t h e c i r c u ms t a n c e s . A r e t h e r e s o me a r e a s w h e r e c o o p e r a t i o n
mi g h t b e mu t u a l l y b e n e f i c i a l a n d u s e f u l i n a r e a s l i k e c o mb a t i n g p i r a c y
o r e n v i r o n me n t a l c l e a n u p , k e e p i n g s e a l a n e s o p e n , t h i n g s l i k e t h a t ?
MR. DUTTON: I can certainly address that. I'd like to point out,
f i r s t o f a l l , t h a t t h e r e ' s a c t u a l l y a t r e me n d o u s a mo u n t o f C o a s t G u a r d
c o o p e r a t i o n . I d o n 't k n o w i f y o u 'r e f a mi l i a r .
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Maybe you could elaborate on that
a little bit.
MR. DUTTON: Yes. No, there is. I would invite you to have
s o me o n e f r o m t h e C o a s t G u a r d g i v e y o u mo r e d e t a i l e d a n s w e r . B u t I
have personally observed the extent to which the Coast Guard officers
in China, and there are Coast Guard officers of the United States Coast
Guard in China, have access to their port facilities and cooperation and
r a t h e r o p e n a c c e s s a n d a g r e e me n t s t o w a y s t h a t f o s t e r t r a d e a n d t h a t
foster safety and security at sea.
I t h i n k t h a t I p e r s o n a l l y b e l i e v e t h a t 's a g o o d b a s i c b u i l d i n g
b l o c k f r o m w h i c h w e c a n b e g i n t o b u i l d ma r i t i me c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h
naval capacity as well.
T h e r e a r e a c o u p l e o f t h i n g s w e n e e d t o o v e r c o me , a n d o n e o f
t h e m i s o u r f u n d a me n t a l d i s a g r e e me n t a b o u t s o me o f t h e a u t h o r i t i e s
that exist in order to use our capacity--right--to jointly or even in
s o me c o o r d i n a t e d f a s h i o n b u i l d s e c u r i t y i n t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n i n t h e
A s i a n r e g i o n , a n d f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e r e j u s t i s n o t a c l e a r c o mmo n
u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e c i r c u ms t a n c e s u n d e r w h i c h i t i s l e g i t i ma t e f o r a
c o u n t r y t o s t o p a n o t h e r c o u n t r y 's f l a g g e d v e s s e l a n d t o b o a r d a n d
- 72 -
inspect it.
T h e r e 's n o t b e e n a c l e a r a g r e e me n t o n t h a t . S o c o mi n g t o t e r ms
w i t h s o me o f t h e a u t h o r i t y i s s u e s w o u l d t h e n , I t h i n k , e n a b l e u s t o
bring to bear our capacity, the physical capabilities in order to build
ma r i t i me s e c u r i t y .
I t h i n k I 'l l l e a v e i t a t t h a t .
C O M M I S S I O N E R R E I N S C H : M r . K a mp h a u s e n , d o y o u w a n t t o
c o mme n t a s w e l l o r n o t ?
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : J u s t b r i e f l y . I t h i n k t h a t s o me t i me s w e
develop activities and we pursue the activities in search of a policy.
And this is a case in which I think we could get to a point where we
would really be at a lot of risk. As Mr. Dutton said, the authorities
w o u l d ma t t e r .
C O M M I S S I O N E R R E I N S C H : Wh a t w o u l d t h e r i s k b e ?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I guess we have to think about why we
w o u l d o p e r a t e t o g e t h e r a n d t h e n w h a t w e mi g h t a c c o mp l i s h i n a r e a l
sense once we practiced it a bit. And then beyond that, consider the
i mp l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e r e g i o n , e s p e c i a l l y f o r o u r a l l i a n c e p a r t n e r s i n
Japan and South Korea and elsewhere, including Australia and so
forth.
I think the authority under which we would actually operate
together needs to be pretty fixed at an early point before we can do
that.
MR. DUTTON: May I return to this issue for a second? I want
t o p o i n t o u t t h a t I t h i n k t h a t t h e n a v i e s o r t h e j o i n t ma r i t i me s t r a t e g y
t h a t c a me o u t t h i s f a l l d o e s a p r e t t y g o o d o f a r t i c u l a t i n g a s t r a t e g i c
vision and purpose behind doing joint operations. And so I think
p e r h a p s my c o l l e a g u e a n d I d i s a g r e e a l i t t l e o n t h a t .
F u n d a me n t a l l y , i t 's a s h i f t , I t h i n k , b e c a u s e w h e r e a s i n t h e p a s t
we were focused on national security and the self-defense authorities
t o u s e f o r c e i n t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n , t h e s h i f t o f t h e ma r i t i me s t r a t e g y ,
i n my v i e w , i s t h a t w e 'r e n o w f o c u s e d o n e n s u r i n g s t a b i l i t y s o t h a t t h e
d i s r u p t i v e a c t o r s i n t h e w o r l d t h a t a r e i n t e n t o n d i s r u p t i n g ma n y
t h i n g s , i n c l u d i n g t h e g l o b a l e c o n o my , a r e u n a b l e t o d o s o b e c a u s e
s t a t e s h a v e b r o u g h t t h e i r p o l i c i n g p o w e r a u t h o r i t i e s t o t h a t c o mmo n
d o ma i n .
We n e e d t o c o me t o g e t h e r t o u n d e r s t a n d w h a t t h e c o mmo n
a u t h o r i t i e s o f t h e p o l i c i n g p o w e r s o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y a r e ,
true, but I think there is a basis for working together to build security
i n t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n w i t h C h i n a . We a r e b o t h s i g n i f i c a n t
s t a k e h o l d e r s o b v i o u s l y i n t h e g l o b a l e c o n o mi c o r d e r a n d o u r i n t e r e s t i n
s t a b i l i t y a t s e a ma n d a t e s t h a t w e h a v e s o me k i n d o f a p p r o a c h t o
o v e r c o mi n g p i r a c y , t e r r o r i s m a n d o t h e r d i s r u p t i v e a c t o r s i n t h e
ma r i t i me d o ma i n .
- 73 -
 M R . K A M P H A U S E N : I g u e s s my p o i n t w a s - -
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Keep going.
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I wasn't clear, I don't think. My point
w a s i f w e d o n 't h a v e e s t a b l i s h e d r u l e s o f t h e r o a d f o r h o w w e o p e r a t e
together, how could we consider actually operating individually in
p r o x i mi t y t o e a c h o t h e r ? H o w c o u l d w e c o n s i d e r o p e r a t i n g t o g e t h e r i f
w e h a v e n 't s o r t e d o u t t h a t mo s t f u n d a me n t a l t h i n g ?
I n ma n y r e s p e c t s , w e h a v e n o t a c c o mp l i s h e d t h a t . A n d s o i t
s t r i k e s me t h a t ' s t h e f i r s t s t e p . We n e e d t o n a i l t h a t d o w n a n d t h e n w e
can think about operating together, and then we have to deal with the
other issues including the proper accountability to Congress on what
its expectations are with regard to the activity.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Thank you.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : I w o u l d t u r n t o C o mmi s s i o n e r
M u l l o y , b u t a s a ma t t e r o f c o mme n t , t h o u g h , p e r s o n a l l y k n o w i n g a
l i t t l e b i t a b o u t t h e L a w o f t h e S e a , I 'v e h e a r d b o t h o f y o u a n d ma y b e i n
a p r e v i o u s p a n e l a s w e l l , c o mme n t s a b o u t t h e t r e a t i e s g r a y a r e a s , b u t
the Law of the Sea Treaty is fairly extensive and outlines authorities
across the board in several areas.
I 'm a l i t t l e c o n f u s e d b y y o u r c o mme n t s , M r . D u t t o n , a b o u t w h a t
the rules of the road are with regard to boarding and piracy and things
like that. T h e t r e a t y i s f a i r l y e x t e n s i v e r e g a r d i n g t h e s e ma t t e r s ,
i n c l u d i n g t h e d e t a i l s a n d l i mi t s o f t h e p h a s e s o f t h e c o a s t a l z o n e s a n d
EEZs and everything else.
This gets into the question that a couple of us raised earlier
a b o u t h o w C h i n a s e e ms t o i n t e r p r e t t h e L a w o f t h e S e a T r e a t y t o w a r d
i t s e n d s a n d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y a s c l e a r l y a s o n e mi g h t e x p e c t f r o m a
c o u n t r y t h a t s e e ms t o b e f a i r l y h a r d - l i n e w i t h r e g a r d t o s o v e r e i g n t y .
I j u s t s a y t h a t a s a ma t t e r o f c o mme n t , a n d i f y o u w a n t t o
c o mme n t l a t e r , f e e l f r e e t o . A t t h i s t i me I w a n t t o t u r n t h e q u e s t i o n i n g
o v e r t o C o mmi s s i o n e r M u l l o y .
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : T h a n k y o u , C h a i r ma n E s p e r . T h i s
i s d i r e c t e d t o M r . D u t t o n a n d t h e n w e 'l l b r i n g y o u i n , M r . K a mp h a u s e n .
M r . D u t t o n , M r . K a mp h a u s e n , o n p a g e o n e o f h i s t e s t i mo n y , s a y s t h a t
t h e P L A i s e n g a g e d i n a n a mb i t i o u s p r o g r a m o f mi l i t a r y mo d e r n i z a t i o n
t h a t c o n t r i b u t e s t o a n i n c r e a s e i n c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r , a n d
t h o s e w o r d s a r e c a p i t a l i z e d . S o I p r e s u me t h e y me a n s o me t h i n g .
Wh a t d o t h o s e w o r d s me a n i n y o u r mi n d , " c o mp r e h e n s i v e
national power"?
MR. DUTTON: C o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r i n my mi n d
w o u l d e n c o mp a s s a l l o f t h e i n s t r u me n t s o f n a t i o n a l p o w e r t h a t c o u l d b e
brought to bear on any issue of consequence in the international arena.
C e r t a i n l y , t h e y i n c l u d e t h e t r a d i t i o n a l d i p l o ma t i c c a p a b i l i t i e s ,
mi l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t i e s , e c o n o mi c p o w e r , y o u r a b i l i t y t o c o mmu n i c a t e
- 74 -
y o u r s t r a t e g i c me s s a g e .
For the United States, it certainly includes--I heard reference
e a r l i e r t o d a y t o o t h e r p o w e r s s u c h a s t h e p o w e r o f o u r e c o n o my , o u r
d o me s t i c s y s t e m, o u r v o l u n t e e r i s m, f o r i n s t a n c e . T h e r e 's a l o t t h a t
e n c o mp a s s e s w h a t a n a t i o n h a s .
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Do we use that term in the United
S t a t e s , " c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r " ? Is that a term that the
Chinese use or is that one that we use or is that one that everybody
uses to talk about their--
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: It's a peculiar term that they use.
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : I t ' s a p e c u l i a r . Wh a t d o e s i t me a n ,
M r . K a mp h a u s e n , i n y o u r v i e w ? H a s h e g o t i t r i g h t o r ?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: Yes, sir. I talk about it a little bit further
o n g e t t i n g i n t o t h e s e c o n d p a g e , a n d i t r e a l l y i s a l l t h e e l e me n t s o f
n a t i o n a l p o w e r , u s i n g o u r t e r ms .
Wh a t 's s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t a b o u t i t i s t h a t , a n d t h i s h a r k e n s b a c k t o
S o v i e t d a y s i n s o me r e s p e c t s , s o me C h i n e s e t h e o r i s t s a c t u a l l y a p p l y
v a l u e s , n u me r i c a l v a l u e s , t o e a c h o f t h e s e c o mp o n e n t s i n v a r y i n g
f o r ms , a n d i t s e r v e s a p o l i c y f u n c t i o n i n t h e i r o w n p o l i c y f o r mu l a t i o n
p r o c e s s b e c a u s e t h e y ma k e d e c i s i o n s t h e n b a s e d o n h o w t h e y c a n
a d v a n c e t h e o v e r a l l n u mb e r mo s t a d v a n t a g e o u s l y .
I f I s a y a n y t h i n g mo r e a b o u t i t , I w i l l q u i c k l y g e t o u t o f my
d e p t h . T h e r e a s o n I r a i s e i t , h o w e v e r , i n t h i s c o n t e x t i s w h a t 's
i mp o r t a n t i s b a l a n c e , a n d f o r a p e r i o d o f t w o d e c a d e s o r mo r e , t h e
mi l i t a r y mo d e r n i z a t i o n c o mp o n e n t o r t h e mi l i t a r y c o mp o n e n t , d e f e n s e
c o mp o n e n t o f c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r l a g g e d t h e o t h e r
c o mp o n e n t s , a n d s o t h e r e w a s , I b e l i e v e , a d e c i s i o n ma d e t h a t i n p a r t
s o me c a t c h - u p w a s r e q u i r e d , a n d t h a t s t a r t e d i n t h e e a r l y t o mi d - '9 0 s ,
a n d t h a t 's a f u n d a me n t a l d e c i s i o n b a s e d o n t h e i r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f h o w
a c o u n t r y g e t s b i g a n d s t r o n g , a n d y o u r mi l i t a r y h a s t o b e s t r o n g f o r
you to achieve that.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: So they want to be big and strong?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: They want to be big and strong and they
w a n t t o b e b a l a n c e d a s t h e y a c c o mp l i s h t h a t .
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : C a n I a sk y o u t h i s ? O n p a g e t w o o f
y o u r t e s t i mo n y , M r . D u t t o n , y o u t a l k a b o u t t h a t t h e C h i n e s e
i n t e g r a t i o n i n c l u d i n g e c o n o mi c i n t e g r a t i o n h a s a c c o u n t e d f o r t h e i r r i s e
i n p o w e r . S o my u n d e r s t a n d i n g i s t h i s - - a n d l e t me a s k y o u b o t h - - D e n g
X i a o p i n g - - I me a n M a o , t h e y w a n t e d t o b u i l d a s t r o n g e r C h i n a . M a o
t r i e d t o d o i t b y t h r o w i n g t h e f o r e i g n e r s o u t a n d D e n g X i a o p i n g ma d e
t h e j u d g me n t , n o , w e n e e d t o b r i n g t h e f o r e i g n e r s i n . We n e e d t o b r i n g
t h e i r t e c h n o l o g y ; w e n e e d t o b r i n g t h e i r e c o n o mi c s i n t o h e l p u s b u i l d
o u r c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r .
Is that your understanding? Has that been a successful strategy?
- 75 -
 M R . D U T T O N : I g u e s s i n b r o a d t e r ms i t 's my u n d e r s t a n d i n g .
A r e y o u a s k i n g me ? I t h i n k s o . C e r t a i n l y i t h a s b e e n a s u c c e s s f u l
strategy in that they have integrated and found a very successful place
w i t h i n t h e g l o b a l e c o n o my a n d f r a n k l y t h e g l o b a l s y s t e m a s a w h o l e .
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Is that your understanding, Mr.
K a mp h a u s e n ?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: Yes, sir.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: If you c o mp a r e d the
c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n 1 9 8 0 v e r s u s
C h i n a i n 1 9 8 0 a n d t h e n c o mp a r e o u r c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r
n o w t o C h i n a 's n o w , h a s t h e r e b e e n s o me c h a n g e i n t h e r e l a t i v e
c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r o f t h e t w o s i d e s ?
M R . D U T T O N : I ' m n o t s u r e I 'm e n t i r e l y q u a l i f i e d t o a n s w e r
that, but I think just from a generic perspective, yes. China has
articulated its desire to rise and it has done so.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: And what about you?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I think anecdotally we could agree with
t h a t j u d g me n t . I t h i n k w e w a n t t o r e a l l y s t u d y i t h a r d e r , b u t c e r t a i n l y
t h e y h a v e ma d e d r a ma t i c s t r i d e s , p r i ma r i l y i n t h e e c o n o mi c d i me n s i o n ,
since 1980.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: S o d o y o u t h i n k t h e e c o n o mi c
policies we followed toward China have helped build its
c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r ?
M R . D U T T O N : I 'm n o t a n e c o n o mi s t e n o u g h t o a n s w e r t h a t . I 'm
sorry.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Wh a t a b o u t L i e u t e n a n t C o l o n e l
K a mp h a u s e n ?
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : I t h i n k i t ' s t h e p o l i c y o f s e v e n A me r i c a n
a d mi n i s t r a t i o n s t o p u r s u e c o mp r e h e n s i v e e n g a g e me n t w i t h C h i n a , a n d
t h e r e 's a c o n s i s t e n t c o r e t o t h e p o l i c y o f R e p u b l i c a n a n d D e mo c r a t i c
a d mi n i s t r a t i o n s t o a c c o mp l i s h t h a t e n d .
C e r t a i n l y i t ' s my b e s t u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t t h o s e d e c i s i o n s w e r e
ma d e t o i mp r o v e t h e p o s i t i o n o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d t o b e n e f i t
A me r i c a n c i t i z e n s p r i ma r i l y . T h e y w e r e n o t t a k e n a s a me a n s t o
a d v a n c e C h i n a . T h a t w a s c e r t a i n l y a s e c o n d a r y b e n e f i t , b u t i t w a s n 't
t h e i n t e n t o f w h y t h o s e a d mi n i s t r a t i o n s h a v e t a k e n t h a t p o l i c y .
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Thank you.
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : C a n I ma k e a n i n t e r j e c t i o n ? I h a v e a
short interjection because I've actually done a lot of work on the
g e n e s i s a n d e v o l u t i o n o f t h e c o n c e p t o f c o mp r e h e n s i v e n a t i o n a l p o w e r
in China. It was actually a Japanese scholar of national security that
used it in a book I think in the early 1980s. It was then picked up in
t h e C h i n e s e N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e U n i v e r s i t y i n t e x t s a n d l i f t e d a l mo s t
w h o l l y i n t e r ms o f c h a r a c t e r s f r o m t h e J a p a n e s e , b u t t h e n d e v e l o p e d
- 76 -
s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n s i d e C h i n a p r i ma r i l y i n t h e l a t e '9 0 s . And it's
a n a l o g o u s t o w h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c a l l s t h e e l e me n t s o f n a t i o n a l
power.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : T h a n k y o u , C h a i r ma n Wo r t z e l .
We ' l l e x p e c t a p a p e r o n t h a t - -
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: H e 's p r o b a b l y a l r e a d y
written a book on it. Sign it and hand out copies.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r B a r t h o l o me w , t h e n
Brookes and Videnieks.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: T h a n k y o u . S i n c e t h e
i s s u e o f e x p a n d e d e x c h a n g e s o r j o i n t e x e r c i s e s h a s c o me u p , a n d
p e o p l e d a n c e d a r o u n d t h e i s s u e o f o n e o f t h e b i g g e s t r i s k s - - I me a n w e
h a v e j u s t s e e n l a t e l y mo r e e v i d e n c e o f C h i n e s e i n t e l l i g e n c e a c t i v i t i e s
h e r e i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , a n d t h e c o n c e r n o f a n u mb e r o f p e o p l e i n
C o n g r e s s h a s b e e n t h a t t h e C h i n e s e w o u l d l e a r n f a r mo r e f r o m
exchanges and/or from joint exercises than we would, and that the
k i n d s o f t h i n g s t h a t t h e y mi g h t l e a r n c o u l d h e l p t o b u i l d t h e i r c a p a c i t y
i n a w a y t h a t mi g h t n o t b e v e r y h e l p f u l f o r u s .
A s e c o n d c o mme n t , I t h i n k , M r . D u t t o n , y o u d i d me n t i o n i t , b u t
o n t h e c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m, t h e C h i n e s e h a v e u s e d t h e c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m
concept to deal with what they call separatism and also to crackdown
on the Uyghurs. I think that we always need to be cognizant that what
w e t h i n k o f a s c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m a n d h o w t h e y 'r e u s i n g c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m
c a n b e d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s , a n d t h e r e a r e a l o t o f h u ma n r i g h t s a b u s e s t h a t
a r e t a k i n g p l a c e , f r a n k l y i n t o o ma n y p l a c e s , u n d e r t h e g u i s e o f
c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m.
B u t t h e q u e s t i o n t h a t I , a n d t h e r e 's b e e n a s u b t e x t t h a t I 'v e b e e n
h e a r i n g , p e r h a p s e r r o n e o u s l y , t h r o u g h o u t mu c h o f t h i s d a y , t h a t
because the Chinese are not being aggressive in the region, then
s o me h o w w h a t 's g o i n g o n i s o k a y , t h a t t h e t h r e s h o l d i s w h e t h e r t h e y
act aggressively or not, and I think when there is concern that what
they are doing while they are not acting aggressively is that they are
b u i l d i n g a f r a me w o r k mi l i t a r i l y , t h e y 'r e b u i l d i n g a f r a me w o r k l e g a l l y ,
a n d t h e y 'r e b u i l d i n g a f r a me w o r k d i p l o ma t i c a l l y t o a c h i e v e t h e e n d s
t h a t t h e y w a n t t o a c h i e v e w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o a c t mi l i t a r i l y o r
aggressively.
I w a n t t o ma k e s u r e t h a t s o me s e n s e t h a t j u s t b e c a u s e t h e y 'r e n o t
a c t i n g a g g r e s s i v e l y d o e s n 't me a n t h a t p e o p l e a r e l u l l e d i n t o t h i n k i n g
all is quiet on the eastern front, I guess, is what I should say.
B u t my q u e s t i o n a c t u a l l y , M r . D u t t o n , I f i n d i t r e a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g ,
a n d I 'd l i k e t o t a k e y o u o u t o f t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n a l i t t l e b i t . I n a
c o mme n t t h a t y o u ma d e , y o u c i t e f r o m R e n mi n H a i j u n a b o u t l e g a l
w a r r i o r s mu s t b e f a r s i g h t e d t o d i s c e r n a n y p r o b l e ms b e f o r e t h e y
a c t u a l l y a r i s e i n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e a l e g a l p r e t e x t f o r mi l i t a r y a c t i o n a n d
- 77 -
to engage in legal contests to vie for the legal initiative in order to
safeguard national sovereignty.
A n d t h e p a r a g r a p h b e f o r e t h a t t h a t y o u s a y t h a t t h e y 'r e b e s t , a t
l e a s t i n t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n , b e s t s e e n a s p r i ma r i l y s e e k i n g t o e x t e n d
and consolidate sovereignty rather than to protect sovereignty per se.
Do you think that this kind of approach is taking place outside
t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n a l s o ? I me a n i t 's a p r e e mp t i o n o f s o r t . I t 's a
l e g a l p r e e mp t i o n , b u t i t 's t r y i n g t o i d e n t i f y p r o b l e ms a n d c r e a t e a
f r a me w o r k i n w h i c h t h e p r o b l e ms n e v e r b e c o me p r o b l e ms , b u t
sovereignty could be expanded.
I 'd a s k t h a t o f b o t h o f y o u .
MR. DUTTON: I think the answer is probably yes, and China
h a s a v e r y l o n g v i e w , i n my e x p e r i e n c e , w i t h t h e i r s t r a t e g i c o b j e c t i v e s ,
and this is kind of a characteristically Chinese approach to their
p r o b l e ms . R e mo v e a n y p o t e n t i a l f u t u r e b a r r i e r s i n c l u d i n g a n y - - a s I
i n t i ma t e d e a r l i e r , o n e o f t h e b a r r i e r s t h a t t h e y 'v e g o t t o r e mo v e i s t h e y
c a n n o t b e s e e n a s a g g r e s s i v e l y u s i n g f o r c e , r i g h t , s o t h e y 'v e g o t t o , i n
part, extend their sovereignty and their sovereign interests so that as a
threat exists that they cannot tolerate, they have to have a self-defense
t y p e a r g u me n t t o r e s p o n d t o i t .
S o I w o u l d s e n s e t h a t t h a t w o u l d n o t b e s i mp l y l i mi t e d t o t h e
ma r i t i me d o ma i n , a n d b y ma r i t i me d o ma i n I me a n t h e w a t e r a n d
airspace above it.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: A i r s p a c e , t o o . O k a y .
M R . D U T T O N : I 'v e j u s t c o mp l e t e d a n a r t i c l e o n t h a t i s s u e .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: C o l o n e l K a mp h a u s e n .
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : I ' m n o t s u r e I h a v e mu c h t o a d d e x c e p t
t h a t t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n a p p e a r s t o o f f e r mo r e f l e x i b i l i t y , a n d I s a y
that as neither a naval officer nor a lawyer.
T h e r e i s a h a r d n e s s t o t h e c o n t i n e n t a l d i me n s i o n t h a t mi g h t
reduce the flexibility that you referred to, but I think at another level,
w e c e r t a i n l y o u g h t t o b e a w a r e o f t he e f f o r t s t h a t w o u l d a p p e a r t o s e t
t h e p r e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t w o u l d b e mo r e f a v o r a b l e t o a C h i n e s e
interpretation of issues, whatever the issue is under consideration.
I me a n w e d o n 't w a n t t o q u o t e S u n T z u - -
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: I d i d t h i s mo r n i n g . G o
ahead.
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: But, if you can set the conditions in such
a w a y t h a t y o u a c h i e v e y o u r o u t c o me , t h e n i t 's o b v i o u s l y a mu c h mo r e
preferable course of action.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: Y o u j u s t d i d i t mo r e
e l o q u e n t l y t h a n I d i d , b u t I d i d d o t h a t t h i s mo r n i n g . B u t I ' l l j u s t t a k e
a n o t h e r mi n u t e , w h i c h i s i f y o u t a l k a b o u t l a n d b e i n g h a r d e r t h a n
water, what do we do about air? Y o u me n t i o n e d i t , b u t t h a t 's
- 78 -
s i mi l a r l y - - s o f t i s n o t t h e r i g h t w o r d , b u t - -
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : E p h e me r a l .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: E p h e me r a l . E p h e me r a l - -
l e s s t a n g i b l e a n d i s t h e s o u r c e o f p o t e n t i a l l y s o mu c h d i f f i c u l t y .
M R . D U T T O N : I t c e r t a i n l y i s . I t 's t h e s a me a s t h e ma r i t i me
d o ma i n , a n d t h e r e 's a r e a l d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e b o u n d a r y d i s p u t e
resolutions on the land than at sea, I think, in part because territorial
d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n - - t e r r i t o r y me a n i n g t e r r a f i r ma - - i t ' s e i t h e r y o u r
s o v e r e i g n s p a c e o r i t 's n o t . I t 's a b l a c k o r w h i t e i s s u e .
I n t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n , I g u e s s p e r h a p s w e h a v e a l i t t l e
different perspective actually on United Nations Convention on the
L a w o f t h e S e a b e c a u s e I t h i n k t h e r e i s , t h e r e i s j u s t s o me f u z z i n e s s i n
t h e r e , i n p a r t i c u l a r , i n r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t h e E x c l u s i v e E c o n o mi c Z o n e .
T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s I t h i n k h a s v e r y mu c h t h e c o n s e n s u s
perspective, and we are correct in our perspective on what the
E x c l u s i v e E c o n o mi c Z o n e i s a n d t h e b a l a n c e o f c o a s t a l s t a t e a n d
i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y 's r i g h t s . I h a v e n o q u i b b l e s a t a l l w i t h t h a t .
T h a t s a i d , t h e r e i s e n o u g h a mb i g u i t y i n t h e t e x t o f t h e
Convention that it allows countries such as China and a few others to
c l a i m a d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e a n d h a v e s o me b a s i c l e g i t i ma c y f o r t h a t
p e r s p e c t i v e . N o t mu c h , l e t me s a y .
So the problem is that sovereignty in the airspace and on the sea
space is not a black or white issue, even off of our own coasts. There
is a zone in which there is a blend of rights that belong to the
i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y a n d t o t h e c o a s t a l s t a t e , a n d t h e r e i s
d e f i n i t e l y a c o n t e s t o v e r t h e e x t e n t o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y ' s
rights and the coastal state's control in that zone, particularly in the
z o n e b e t w e e n 1 2 n a u t i c a l mi l e s a n d 2 0 0 .
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : I f I ma y a d d , i t ' s a l w a y s r i s k y t o c i t e a
p e r s o n t h a t y o u 'r e s i t t i n g n e x t t o o n a p a n e l , b u t M r . D u t t o n h a s d o n e
s o me v e r y i mp o r t a n t w o r k o n t h i s , a n d i f my u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f s o me o f
the things he's written is correct, it's not the case that our interests or
our positions would always be in opposition to the Chinese position.
I 'm t h i n k i n g o f t h e H a n i n c i d e n t i n 2 0 0 4 , a n d i f I r e me mb e r
c o r r e c t l y , t h e w a y y o u c h a r a c t e r i z e d i t i s t h e r e ma y b e s o me
c o n s o n a n c e o f A me r i c a n a n d C h i n e s e p o s i t i o n s a s i t p e r t a i n s t o
passage of a strait in territorial waters, for instance.
A n d s o I t h i n k w e d o n 't w a n t t o l e a v e w i t h t h e i mp r e s s i o n t h a t
we are always in opposition to each other as it pertains to Law of the
Sea issues.
MR. DUTTON: Just a quick clarification.
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: Did I get it close?
M R . D U T T O N : Y e s . We w o u l d n o t h a v e h a d a n i s s u e . We
would not have had an issue with the transit passage of the Han
- 79 -
s u b ma r i n e i n 2 0 0 4 i n t h e I s h i g a k i S t r a i t . I t w a s J a p a n a n d C h i n a t h a t
h a d t h e i s s u e a s t o w h e t h e r t h a t w a s l e g i t i ma t e o r n o t . We s o r t o f
s t a y e d o n t h e s i d e l i n e s b e c a u s e t r a n s i t p a s s a g e o f s u b ma r i n e s i n a n
international strait underwater is perfectly fine from the U.S.
perspective.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: T h a n k y o u .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r B r o o k e s .
C O M M I S S I O N E R B R O O K E S : T h a n k y o u , g e n t l e me n , f o r y o u r
t e s t i mo n y . I j u s t w a n t e d t o g o o v e r a f e w t h i n g s b e c a u s e y o u 'v e g i v e n
us a lot to think about and it would probably be worthwhile reading the
transcript after this. I have a few questions for you.
D o y o u p e r c e i v e t h a t t h e r e 's a h a r d e n i n g o f v i e w s i n C h i n a i n
t e r ms o f t h e i s s u e o f s o v e r e i g n t y ? I s t h e r e a h a r d e n i n g o f v i e w s
b e c a u s e y o u 'v e i n t r o d u c e d a n u mb e r o f n e w t h i n g s h e r e , s u c h a s l e g a l
w a r f a r e t h a t I h a d n 't h e a r d o f b e f o r e ?
That's the basic question--is there a hardening of views on the
i s s u e o f s o v e r e i g n t y w i t h i n t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t ?
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : I t h i n k t h e a ns w e r i s y e s a n d n o . A s w e
t a l k e d a b o u t e a r l i e r - - C h a i r ma n Wo r t z e l ' s q u e s t i o n - - i n s o me r e s p e c t s
there has been a very flexible approach to solving border disputes
w h i c h i s a c o r e c o mp o n e n t o f s o v e r e i g n t y i s s u e s . S o i n t h a t r e s p e c t , I
d o n 't k n o w i f y o u 'd c a l l i t h a r d e n i n g o r s o f t e n i n g , b u t i t 's mo r e
flexible.
However, in the case of Taiwan, there definitely appears to be a
h a r d e n i n g - - r i g h t - - a n d t h e l a s t d e c a d e h a s s e e n t h e d e v e l o p me n t o f a
n a t i o n a l s t r a t e g y o f w h i c h t h e r e i s a mi l i t a r y c o mp o n e n t t o d e t e r
Taiwan independence, on the one hand, and also prepare to deal with
reinforcing third-country forces that would be entering the region.
I think you could characterize that as a hardening of policy, and
a s I a r g u e i n my s t a t e me n t , f u n d a me n t a l l y b e c a u s e o f t h e r i s k t o
C h i n a 's c l a i m o f s o v e r e i g n t y o n T a i w a n , t h a t t h e y h a v e t o t a k e t h a t
course of action.
MR. DUTTON: I've only got one thing to add to that, which is
that to the extent over the last 15 years or so that there's been a
h a r d e n i n g . S o me c o mme n t a t o r s h a v e me n t i o n e d t h a t , a n d f r a n k l y I 'v e
r e a d t h e C h i n e s e h a v i n g s a i d t h e s a me t h i n g , t h a t t h e l e g i t i ma c y o f t h e
C h i n e s e C o mmu n i s t P a r t y n o w r e s t s , s i n c e t h e o p e n i n g a n d r e a l i g n me n t
o f t h e g o v e r n me n t , o n t w o t h i n g s f u n d a me n t a l l y : e c o n o mi c g r o w t h a n d
protection of sovereign interests. That is it; right.
A n d s o a s o t h e r s o u r c e s o f l e g i t i ma c y f a d e f o r t h e c o n t i n u e d
g o v e r n a n c e o f t h e C h i n e s e C o mmu n i s t P a r t y , t h e n p e r h a p s t h a t i s a
reason why we are seeing a resurgence of sovereignty as a critical
issue.
C O M M I S S I O N E R B R O O K E S : L e t me p u t a f i n e r p o i n t o n i t .
- 80 -
Wh a t a b o u t t h e E x c l u s i v e E c o n o mi c Z o n e ? I s t h e r e a h a r d e n i n g o f
o p i n i o n o n s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r t h e 2 0 0 mi l e E E Z ? I t h i n k t h e t w o o t h e r
things you pointed out, I think are pretty basic. But what about this
i s s u e w h i c h I t h i n k h a s t r e me n d o u s p o t e n t i a l c o n s e q u e n c e s , e c o n o mi c ,
political, even security consequences. T h a t 's s o me t h i n g I w o u l d
w o n d e r i f y o u c o u l d c o mme n t o n ?
M R . D U T T O N : Y e s , I c a n c o mme n t o n t h a t . T h e r e 's a w h o l e
s e r i e s o f a c t i o n s t h a t w e 'v e s e e n , c e r t a i n l y b e g i n n i n g r e a l l y w i t h t h e
EP-3 incident, perhaps even earlier, the Taiwan Strait crisis, 1996, and
t h e C h i n e s e s t a t e me n t s t h a t t h e T a i wa n S t r a i t i s t h e i r w a t e r , a n d t h a t
we are violating their sovereignty by sending aircraft carriers through
there.
M o r e r e c e n t l y , t h e mo v e me n t t o w a r d d e v e l o p me n t o f A i r D e f e n s e
I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Z o n e . I h a v e n 't a c t u a l l y s e e n t h e C h i n e s e s t a t e me n t o n
t h a t a l t h o u g h I h a v e t a l k e d w i t h a c a d e mi c s a n d g o v e r n me n t o f f i c i a l s
who do confirm it.
T h e b o t t o m l i n e i s i n my v i e w t h a t t h e y a r e a c t i v e l y p u r s u i n g
t h i s , a l t h o u g h i t w a s s o me w h a t o p p o r t u n i s t i c , n u mb e r o n e , b a s e d o n
e v e n t s , a n d , n u mb e r t w o , r e me mb e r t h a t t h e y , I t h i n k , a r e u s i n g t h i s
opportunity to craft the Law of the Sea, to try to craft the Law of the
S e a i n t h a t d i r e c t i o n , r i g h t , t o mo r e a n d mo r e c o a s t a l s t r a i t c o n t r o l a t
t h e e x p e n s e o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y , w h i c h C h i n a d i d n 't a c c e d e
t o t h e C o n v e n t i o n u n t i l 1 9 9 6 , i f I r e me mb e r c o r r e c t l y . S o t h a t w o u l d
e x p l a i n s o me o f i t s n e w e r p o s i t i o n s .
C O M M I S S I O N E R B R O O K E S : D o y o u h a v e s o me t h i n g t o a d d t o
that, Roy?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I was just going to say that whether their
v i e w s h a v e h a r d e n e d , w e c e r t a i n l y s e e mo r e , a g r e a t e r w i l l i n g n e s s t o
a c t u a l l y p u r s u e w h a t t h e y w a n t t o s e e o c c u r i n t e r ms o f f o r e i g n
mi l i t a r i e s o p e r a t i n g i n t h e i r E E Z . T h e y 'r e mu c h mo r e a s s e r t i v e , mu c h
mo r e w i l l i n g t o c h a l l e n g e f o r e i g n mi l i t a r i e s w h o ma y b e o p e r a t i n g i n a
p e r mi s s i b l e w a y . S o I d o n 't k n o w i f t h e i r p o s i t i o n h a s c h a n g e d , b u t
t h e y a r e c e r t a i n l y p u r s u i n g t h e i r e n d i n a mu c h mo r e a s s e r t i v e w a y .
C O M M I S S I O N E R B R O O K E S : A n d w h a t a r e t h e ma i n d r i v e r s f o r
t h i s i n t e r ms o f E E Z ? Wh a t d o y o u s e e a s t h e ma i n d r i v e r s f o r t h e
C h i n e s e a t t e mp t o r d e s i r e t o e x t e n d s o v e r e i g n t y t o t h e E E Z ?
MR. DUTTON: There are drivers in two senses. First is the
r e a s o n t h a t w e 'r e s e e i n g mo r e o f t h i s n o w i s I t h i n k t h e y h a v e t h e
mi l i t a r y c a p a c i t y a n d s o r t o f o t h e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t r e n g t h s t h a t a l l o w
them the political space within which to confront us.
The drivers for it I think are a couple of things. One of them is
j u s t t h a t b a s i c s e n s e o f t h e i r o wn s o v e r e i g n t y , t a k i n g t h e l o n g v i e w ,
thousands of years of Chinese history and their sense of that real
o w n e r s h i p o v e r t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n a s t h e y h a v e d e f i n e d i t .
- 81 -
 S e c o n d l y , i t 's p a r t o f t h i s d i s r u p t i v e s t r a t e g y , i n my p e r s o n a l
v i e w . I t 's p a r t o f t h e d i s r u p t i v e s t r a t e g y , w h i c h i s t o s a y t h a t t h e mo r e
t h a t t h e y c a n p u s h b a c k w i t h l a w , r i g h t , p u s h b a c k t h e A me r i c a n f o r c e s
a n d a t t e mp t t o d e l e g i t i mi z e A me r i c a n s ' u s e o f f r e e n a v i g a t i o n f o r I S R
i n f o r ma t i o n , s u r v e i l l a n c e a n d r e c o n n a i s s a n c e mi s s i o n s , i n t e l l i g e n c e
mi s s i o n s o r f o r h y d r o g r a p h i c s u r v e y s i n t h e E x c l u s i v e E c o n o mi c Z o n e ,
t h e B o w d i t c h , f o r i n s t a n c e , a n d f o r o t h e r mi l i t a r y e x e r c i s e s , s e a
b a s i n g , a s I 'v e s e e n me n t i o n e d i n C h i n e s e i s s u e s . T h e mo r e t h a t t h e y
c a n d e l e g i t i mi z e t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s , t h e mo r e t h e y t h e n ma k e i t h a r d e r .
T h e r e ' s j u s t a c o s t , a p o l i t i c a l c o s t t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n t e r ms
of friction when we insist on our right to have these things.
COMMISSIONER BROOKES: I agree with you, but I would
h a v e s a i d t h a t p e r h a p s s o me t h i n g l i k e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s w o u l d b e a
s i g n i f i c a n t d r i v e r , e s p e c i a l l y o v e r s o me o f t h e s e t h i n g s r e g a r d i n g t h e
C o n t i n e n t a l S h e l f , t h e S o u t h C h i n a S e a , c o n s i d e r i n g C h i n a 's s i g n i f i c a n t
e n e r g y c o n s u mp t i o n . Y o u s e e i t t h e o t h e r w a y ? Y o u s e e i t a s mo r e o f
a n a t i o n a l s o v e r e i g n t y i s s u e a s o p p o s e d t o e c o n o mi c ?
M R . D U T T O N : I d o , a n d l e t me c l a r i f y .
COMMISSIONER BROOKES: Even though they have an
increasing capability to enforce sovereignty over these areas?
M R . D U T T O N : I d o . H e r e ' s t he b o t t o m l i n e f o r me : t h a t i f
C h i n a w e r e r e a l l y t h a t c o n c e r n e d a b o u t e n e r g y , t h e y c o u l d h a v e f o r me d
a cooperative approach in the East China Sea and harvested the energy
u n d e r n e a t h t h e E a s t C h i n a S e a w i t h J a p a n a l o n g t i me a g o . I f t h e y
were really that concerned about that energy, it could be part of the
global supply of energy today. Right.
T h e w a y t h a t t h e y 'v e b e g u n t o d o s ma l l s t e p s i n t h e S o u t h C h i n a
S e a , t h e y c o u l d h a v e d o n e t h i s a l o n g t i me a g o . S o my v i e w i s i t 's n o t
a b o u t t h e e n e r g y ; t h e r e 's s o me t h i n g e l s e g o i n g o n .
Now, they are preserving their long-term interests in sovereignty
i n t h a t d o ma i n , r i g h t , t h a t l o n g - t e r m s t r a t e g i c a p p r o a c h , l e a v i n g mo s t
of the resources there.
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I would just add, I think one of the
drivers is a desire at a national level to create strategic space off their
e a s t e r n s e a b o a r d , a n d s o t h e r e 's n o t h i n g ma g i c a l a b o u t t h e 2 0 0 n a u t i c a l
mi l e s , b u t i t i s a f f o r d e d b y i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n v e n t i o n , a n d i t p r e s e n t s a n
o p p o r t u n i t y t o c r e a t e t h e s p a c e t h a t t h e y d o n 't o t h e r w i s e h a v e .
A n d t h a t h a s p a r t i c u l a r ma n i f e s t a t i o n i n h o w t h e U . S . f o r c e s
o p e r a t e i n t h e A s i a - P a c i f i c , a s y o u k n o w . I t h i n k my o w n t h i n k i n g o n
this has evolved a little bit. It's not just that they want to keep the
United States further away from China, although we certainly have
s e e n t h a t , i n c l u d i n g i n y o u r o w n t e n u r e i n t h e P e n t a g o n , b u t i t 's mo r e
b r o a d l y a n e f f o r t t o c r e a t e mo r e s t r a t e g i c s p a c e o f f t h e e a s t e r n
seaboard.
- 82 -
 COMMISSIONER BROOKES: Okay.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : G o o d . T h a n k y o u . C o mmi s s i o n e r
Videnieks.
C O M M I S S I O N E R V I D E N I E K S : G o o d a f t e r n o o n , g e n t l e me n . I n
a n s w e r i n g C o mmi s s i o n e r R e i n s c h 's q u e s t i o n a b o u t t h e p o s s i b l e
c o o p e r a t i o n , n a v a l , I d i d n 't h e a r t h e " t h o u s a n d s h i p N a v y " me n t i o n e d
once. Is that thing dead?
A question to both of you: is that concept or proposal dead now
o r s t i l l b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d o r i s i t d i s i n t e r e s t , p o s t p o n e me n t ? A n d t h e n
I 'l l a s k s o me o t h e r q u e s t i o n s , t o o . T h e o t h e r q u e s t i o n i s c a n y o u a l l
r a n k P L A 's c a p a b i l i t i e s b y b r a n c h ? G l o b a l l y a n d r e g i o n a l l y ?
M R . D U T T O N : I 'l l t a k e t h e f i r s t o n e . T h e t h o u s a n d s h i p N a v y I
t h i n k c e r t a i n l y v e r y mu c h c o n t i n u e s t o b e a c o n c e p t t h a t i s i mp o r t a n t
t o o u r n a t i o n a l ma r i t i me s t r a t e g y , a l t h o u g h I t h i n k i t h a s b e e n r e c o i n e d
t o t h e " g l o b a l ma r i t i me f o r c e . " I d o n 't s e e t h e t e r m " t h o u s a n d s h i p
Navy" used very often.
A n d f u n d a me n t a l l y i t 's b e h i n d t h e i d e a o f a c o o p e r a t i v e s t r a t e g y
t o a c h i e v e c o mmo n o b j e c t i v e s o f s e c u r i t y i n t h e ma r i t i me d o ma i n t o
ensure freedom of navigation but also to ensure the free flow of
c o mme r c e a t s e a w i t h o u t t h e d i s r u p t i o n o f t h i n g s s u c h a s t e r r o r i s m a n d
piracy.
S o t h i s c o o p e r a t i v e a p p r o a c h i s p l a y i n g o u t i n ma n y p a r t s o f t h e
world, certainly the Gulf of Guinea today, off of the Horn of Africa,
a n d i n n u me r o u s o t h e r p l a c e s i n w h i c h w e a r e a c t i v e l y c o o p e r a t i n g t o
achieve that kind of security.
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: C o mmi s s i o n e r , t h e s e c o n d q u e s t i o n I
g u e s s i s mi n e . A n d I d o n 't t h i n k I c a n d o w h a t y o u 'v e a s k e d w i t h o u t a
s i g n i f i c a n t a mo u n t - -
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: We k e e p t a l k i n g a b o u t t h e
growth one can project, but how big are they now by service and does
it exceed the needs? Do the sizes of the various services exceed the
needs of protecting sovereignty?
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : O k a y . Wh a t I w a s g o i n g t o s u g g e s t i n
r e s p o n s e t o y o u r f i r s t f o r mu l a t i o n w a s t h a t I t h i n k i t 's mo r e h e l p f u l , i n
t e r ms o f f r a mi n g t h e q u e s t i o n s i n a w a y t h a t y o u c a n a n s w e r , i s t o
t h i n k o f s p e c i f i c o p e r a t i o n a l c i r c u ms t a n c e s i n w h i c h f o r c e s mi g h t me e t
e a c h o t h e r a n d t h e n t o c o n s i d e r i n a n e t a s s e s s me n t s o r t o f w a y t h e
c a p a b i l i t i e s t h a t o p p o s i n g f o r c e s mi g h t p o t e n t i a l l y c o me u p w i t h .
I t h i n k t o s i mp l y t h i n k i n t h e n a v a l v e r s u s n a v a l o r a i r v e r s u s a i r
d i s c u s s i o n , I d o n 't t h i n k i t g i v e s u s t h e f i d e l i t y t h a t w e n e e d t o a n s w e r
t h e f u n d a me n t a l q u e s t i o n t h a t y o u a s k e d w h i c h i s - -
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: One always has a contingency
factor. There is a contingency factor in all planning. In this case, I
w a s b a s i c a l l y s a y i n g w h e r e r o u g h l y d o t h e y r a n k ? L e t 's s a y S I P R I o r
- 83 -
s o me b o d y w e r e t o r a n k t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s o f t h e v a r i o u s mi l i t a r i e s , w h e r e
w o u l d P R C f a l l i n t e r ms o f l a n d , a i r a n d s e a ?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I think that if we try to answer that
q u e s t i o n i n a q u a n t i t a t i v e w a y , w e 'l l e n d u p w i t h c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t
ma y b e a r e n 't v e r y h e l p f u l . I d o n 't t h i n k i t 's s i mp l y a f u n c t i o n o f
counting the airplanes, counting the ships, counting the tanks. That is
u s e f u l d a t a . I t c a n f e e d mo d e l s , b u t I d o n 't t h i n k i t h e l p s .
C O M M I S S I O N E R V I D E N I E K S : We l l , g l o b a l l y o r r e g i o n a l l y ?
Maybe theater concentration?
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I would be prepared to say in a regional
c o n t e x t t h a t C h i n a ' s e x p e c t a t i o n o f i t s a r me d f o r c e s i s t h a t i t w i l l b e
t h e p r e e mi n e n t a r me d f o r c e i n E a s t A s i a , a n d I d o n 't k n o w t h e t i me
line for that.
B u t c u r r e n t l y , i t l a g s a t l e a s t J ap a n i n t e r ms o f h o w t h e y w o u l d
o p e r a t e i n a j o i n t a i r - ma r i t i me e n v i r o n me n t .
M R . D U T T O N : I c a n g i v e y o u s o me b r o a d r e s p o n s e s t o t h a t , b u t
f i r s t o f a l l , I a g r e e w i t h C o l o n e l K a mp h a u s e n t h a t i t 's a l mo s t
c o mp a r i n g a p p l e s t o o r a n g e s i n p a r t b e c a u s e w e h a v e f u n d a me n t a l l y
different strategic objectives. That if we recognize that their strategic
o b j e c t i v e i s t o d e n y u s a c c e s s a t a c r i t i c a l t i me a n d i n a c r i t i c a l p l a c e ,
r i g h t , t o a l l o w t h e m t o a c h i e v e t h e i r mi l i t a r y c o n s o l i d a t i o n o v e r
Taiwan, then do they have the capacity to do that?
T h e y 'r e c e r t a i n l y r a p i d l y a p p r o a c h i n g t h a t w i t h t h e d e v e l o p me n t
o f t h e s u b ma r i n e s , t h e i r mi n e c a p a b i l i t i e s , t h e i r a b i l i t y t o d i s r u p t o u r
c o mma n d a n d c o n t r o l a n d I S R c a p a b i l i t i e s , t h e i r a t t e mp t s t o d i s r u p t
o u r a l l i e s a n d o u r l e g i t i ma c y , s o t h e y 'r e a c t i v e l y b u i l d i n g i n t h a t
capacity.
B u t I w o u l d n o t e t h a t t h e y h a v e l i t t l e t o n o s t r a t e g i c mo b i l i t y
capability at all--they have very little ability to project any forces
beyond their littoral region.
T h e y d o h a v e s u b ma r i n e s , a s w e k n o w , a n d t h e i r a b i l i t y t o mo v e
those out into the blue waters of the Pacific as part of that anti-access
s t r a t e g y , b u t t h a t ' s n o t t h e s a me a s a s t r a t e g i c mo b i l e c a p a b i l i t y . S o I
t h i n k w e 'r e c o mp a r i n g a p p l e s a n d o r a n g e s .
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: We l l , i t ' s t a c t i c a l . You're
basically saying it's a tactical capability to do pursue objectives that
are close to tactical--
MR. DUTTON: I t h i n k i t 's i mp o r t a n t t o l o o k a t t h e t w o
objectives and then to assess forces in those lights, yes. I see no
e v i d e n c e , b y t h e w a y , t h a t t h e y h a v e mo v e d t o a s t r a t e g i c o b j e c t i v e o f
p r o j e c t i n g p o w e r a t t h i s p o i n t i n t i me .
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Thank you. Thank you both.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : T h a n k y o u . We 'r e g o i n g t o g o a
s e c o n d r o u n d b e g i n n i n g w i t h C o mmi s s i o n e r Wo r t z e l t o C o mmi s s i o n e r
- 84 -
Fiedler, but first I have a couple of questions. My first question for
either of you --I want you to answer this--if you were asked to be the
National Security Advisor for the next president, what are the two or
t h r e e t h i n g s y o u r e c o mme n d h e o r s h e d o w i t h r e g a r d t o C h i n a i n t h e
c o n t e x t o f t h e s e i s s u e s w e 'v e b e e n t a l k i n g a b o u t t h i s a f t e r n o o n ?
M R . D U T T O N : Wo w . M y f i r s t - -
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : I me a n b r o a d - b r u s h .
M R . D U T T O N : I w a s a c t u a l l y t h i n k i n g l a s t n i g h t a b o u t a s i mi l a r
q u e s t i o n w h i c h w a s f u n d a me n t a l l y h a v e w e c o mmi t t e d , h a v e w e a s a
c o u n t r y c o mmi t t e d t o ma i n t a i n i n g p r i ma c y a t s e a , w h i c h i s t h e
f u n d a me n t a l v a l u e o f o u r n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y s t r a t e g y f o r p r o j e c t i n g
p o w e r ? H a v e w e c o mmi t t e d t o t h a t ? I d o n 't k n o w t h e a n s w e r t o i t .
I d o n 't k n o w t h a t w e e v e n h a v e t h e r e s o u r c e s t o c o n t i n u e t o
c o mmi t t o t h a t . B u t t h e a l t e r n a t i v e f u n d a me n t a l l y i s t o c h o o s e t o f i n d
a w a y t o ma n a g e ma j o r p o w e r s w h o a r e c a p a b l e a t s e a , w h o a r e c a p a b l e
at sea.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: I want to broaden the question a
l i t t l e b i t . I d o n 't w a n t t o t a l k f o c u s o n t h e s e a . I 'm r e a l l y mo r e
c o n c e r n e d a b o u t C h i n a i n a l l d o ma i n s a n d c e r t a i n l y t h e s p e c i f i c
d o ma i n s w e w e r e t a l k i n g a b o u t t o d a y - - c y b e r a n d o u t e r s p a c e . H o w
w o u l d y o u d e a l w i t h C h i n a s o t h a t w e ma i n t a i n t h e p o s i t i o n w e w a n t t o
ma i n t a i n i n a l l t h o s e v a r i o u s d o ma i n s v i s - à - v i s C h i n a ?
S o me p a n e l i s t s t h i s mo r n i n g r e c o mme n d e d f u r t h e r i n t e g r a t i o n i n
a v a r i e t y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e g i me s a n d i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d a g r e e me n t s .
Y o u b o t h h a v e t a l k e d t o d a y a b o u t t h e ma r i t i me c o n s t r u c t , b u t I 'm j u s t
w o n d e r i n g i f t h e r e 's a n y t h i n g t h a t c o me s t o mi n d t h a t y o u s e e l a c k i n g
n o w , o r i d e a s t h a t y o u 'v e h a d t h a t t h i n k w o u l d h e l p t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s
advance its interests and deal with China in a constructive way?
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : I ' l l me n t i o n a c o u p l e , c o mmi s s i o n e r . T h e
f i r s t i s I t h i n k I w o u l d o f f e r w e s h o u l d e n c o u r a g e a n d w e l c o me C h i n a 's
s t a k e h o l d e r s t a t u s i n t h e s e c u r i t y d o ma i n w h i l e f u l l y r e c o g n i z i n g t h e
c h a l l e n g e s a n d r i s k s t h a t mi g h t b r i n g . I t s t r i k e s me t h a t t h e r e i s mo r e
o p p o r t u n i t y t o a c h i e v e o u r o w n p u r p o s e s i n t h a t i f w e w e r e t o w e l c o me
t h a t t h a n i f w e w e r e t o h o l d i t a t a r m's l e n g t h .
There are trends that would potentially put at risk U.S. alliance
relationships, and we have to be very cognizant of that, and we could
also easily anticipate the Chinese, even without our cognizance,
characterizing a changed U.S.-China relationship as creating a de facto
c o n d o mi n i u m o f p o w e r i n A s i a , t h a t w o u l d e s s e n t i a l l y c u t o u t
A me r i c a 's a l l i a n c e p a r t n e r s e s p e c i a l l y J a p a n . S o w e h a v e t o b e v e r y
cognizant of that.
On the other hand, I think if we go about it in a very hard-
h e a d e d s o r t o f w a y , w e l c o mi n g t h e i r s t a t u s , t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n a s a
stakeholder in international security challenges would be, I think, a
- 85 -
p o t e n t i a l l y p o s i t i v e d e v e l o p me n t .
T h e s e c o n d i s t h e r e 's n o s u b s t i t u t e f o r t h e s t r e n g t h o f a r o b u s t
f o r w a r d - d e p l o y e d A me r i c a n p o s t u r e i n t h e r e g i o n . S o n o c h a n g e o n
that front. I think, and the two go hand-in-hand. If you propose
w e l c o mi n g C h i n a a s a s t a k e h o l d e r i n t h e s e c u r i t y d o ma i n , a t t h e s a me
t i me , y o u h a v e t o ma i n t a i n t h a t v e r y s t r o n g a n d t r a d i t i o n a l f o r w a r d -
d e p l o y e d A me r i c a n p o s t u r e i n t h e r e g i o n .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Okay. Mr. Dutton, anything to
add?
M R . D U T T O N : Y e s . M y a n s w e r f o l l o w s o n t h e s a me i d e a , t h a t
I 'm a s s u mi n g t h a t w e 'r e n o t g o i n g t o , i n t h e f u t u r e , c o n t i n u e t o t r y t o
r e ma i n t h e p r i ma r y , t h e o n l y s u p e r p o w e r , a n d t h a t b e c a u s e C h i n a w i l l
r i s e - - i n d o i n g s o , b y t r y i n g t o r e ma i n t h e p r i ma r y s u p e r p o w e r o r t h e
p r i ma r y ma j o r p o w e r , w e w o u l d b e i n v i t i n g c o n f l i c t .
That said, the other way of dealing with China in the future is to
a c c e p t t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e w i l l b e p l u r a l p o w e r s . We w i l l w a n t t o t r y t o
b e t h e p r e d o mi n a n t p o w e r a mo n g t h e p l u r a l p o w e r s . A n d r e c o g n i z i n g
t h a t o t h e r p o w e r s w i l l h a v e i n t e r e s t s a n d w e mu s t f i n d w a y s t o g r i n d
o u t t h e t e n s i o n s b e t w e e n o t h e r p o w e r s w h e n t h e y 'r e s i g n i f i c a n t e n o u g h
t o c a u s e u s s e r i o u s d i s c o mf o r t i f w e d o n 't .
O b v i o u s l y , ma i n t a i n i n g o u r s t r e n g t h i s o n e w a y . Bilateral
a g r e e me n t s i n a h o s t o f w a y s a r e a n o t h e r . M u l t i l a t e r a l a g r e e me n t s a n d
e n c o u r a g i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n mu l t i l a t e r a l a g r e e me n t s a r e a n o t h e r .
A n d f i n a l l y I 'd me n t i o n e n g a g e me n t . I j u s t t h i n k t h a t t h e mo r e
w e b e c o me f a mi l i a r w i t h e a c h o t h e r , t h e b e t t e r o f f t h a t w e w i l l b o t h b e
recognizing that we have to figure out a way in the future to live with
a powerful China.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : O k a y . T h a n k y o u . C o mmi s s i o n e r
Wo r t z e l .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : I s t h e r e s o me i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e g i me o r
a g r e e me n t o r c o n v e n t i o n o n h o w f a r o u t a n A i r D e f e n s e I d e n t i f i c a t i o n
Z o n e ma y e x t e n d b y a s t a t e a n d t h a t w o u l d c o v e r w h a t i n t e r c e p t
a c t i o n s a r e p e r mi t t e d i n s i d e t h a t A D I Z , i n s i d e a c o u n t r y 's A D I Z ?
MR. DUTTON: The short answer is no actually. The
International Civil Aviation Organization does have rules that govern
c i v i l a i r c r a f t - - b u t n o w w e ' r e t a l ki n g a b o u t s t a t e a i r c r a f t , mi l i t a r y
a i r c r a f t i n p a r t i c u l a r . A n d r e a l l y t h e r e 's t h e s o v e r e i g n t y i n t h e a i r , a n d
t h e A me r i c a n p e r s p e c t i v e , a n d I b e l i e v e t h e c o r r e c t p e r s p e c t i v e , i s v e r y
mu c h l i k e s o v e r e i g n t y o n t h e l a n d , w h i c h i s i t 's e i t h e r o n o r i t 's o f f .
T h e r e i s w i t h i n 1 2 n a u t i c a l mi l e s o f t h e c o a s t l i n e a b o v e t h e
territorial sea, that is national airspace, fully sovereign. Outside of it,
it is international airspace, fully international in character.
A s s u c h , a c o a s t a l s t a t e , i n my v i e w , h a s t h e f u l l r i g h t t o u s e t h a t
s p a c e , n o t e x c l u s i v e l y , b u t t o p u t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y o n
- 86 -
n o t i c e t h a t i t h a s a s e c u r i t y i n t e r e s t i s a s mu c h o f t h a t s p a c e a s i t
w a n t s t o . N o w , t h a t d o e s n 't me a n t h a t t h e b a l a n c e o f r i g h t s a n d
responsibilities in that airspace have altered one iota, and Air Defense
I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Z o n e , i n my v i e w , i s s i mp l y a n o t i c e t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
c o mmu n i t y o f t w o t h i n g s :
One, a security interest in that space; and, two, an intent to
i n q u i r e a s t o u n k n o w n c o n t a c t s a n d t h e i r c h a r a c t e r j u s t t o ma k e s u r e
t h a t t h e y 'r e n o t t h r e a t e n i n g . A n d t h e i n t e r c e p t p r o c e d u r e s a r e j u s t
r e a l l y k i n d o f a ma t t e r o f r e s p e c t i n g t h e d u e r e g a r d s t a n d a r d , w h i c h i s
t o s a y t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y , a s w e l l a s t h e c o a s t a l s t a t e , h a s a
r i g h t t o f l y a i r c r a f t t h e r e , a s l o n g a s w e r e s p e c t e a c h o t h e r 's s a f e t y o f
flight.
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : A r e u n ma n n e d a e r i a l v e h i c l e s s t i l l p a r t
o f t h a t o r a r e c r u i s e mi s s i l e s ? P r a c t i c a l l y s p e a k i n g , a c r u i s e mi s s i l e
c o u l d p a s s t h r o u g h o r t r a n s i t a c o u n t r y 's A i r D e f e n s e I d e n t i f i c a t i o n
Z o n e i n i n n o c e n t p a s s a g e w h i l e t a r g e t i n g s o me t h i n g e l s e .
MR. DUTTON: Yes, absolutely. In other words, the fact that an
A i r D e f e n s e I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Z o n e e x i s t s , i n my v i e w , d o e s n o t a l t e r t h e
r i g h t s t h a t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y h a s t o u s e t h a t s p a c e . R i g h t .
A s l o n g a s t h e y a r e n o t t h r e a t e n i n g t h e c o a s t a l s t a t e , t h e n i t 's a
l e g i t i ma t e u s e o f t h e a i r s p a c e i n my v i e w .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : D o y o u h a v e a n y i d e a w h a t t h e C h i n e s e
intend to do with this?
M R . D U T T O N : I 'm n o t a M a n d a r i n s p e a k e r . I 'm i n t h e p r o c e s s
of translating articles on that issue now, and I cannot say with any
specificity what they intend to do, but they're looking very seriously at
t h i s , b o t h f r o m a n a c a d e mi c p e r s p e c t i v e a n d f r o m a g o v e r n me n t
p e r s p e c t i v e , a n d f r o m a mi l i t a r y p e r s p e c t i v e .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : T h a n k y o u . We n e x t h a v e , i n t h e
t e n mi n u t e s o r s o w e h a v e l e f t o f s c h e d u l e d t i me , C o mmi s s i o n e r
F i e d l e r a n d t h e n C o mmi s s i o n e r M u l l o y .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: I have just a very quick
question. I am not a reader of Chinese sovereignty literature or
t h e o r e t i c a l mi l i t a r y j o u r n a l s , b u t I a m i n t e r e s t e d , a n d I c o u l d p r o b a b l y
a s k C o mmi s s i o n e r Wo r t z e l t h i s i f y o u d o n 't h a v e t h e a n s w e r . I s t h e r e
a n y g e n e r a t i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e - - l e t me j u s t p r e f a c e t h i s b y , w e me t s o me
v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g , s ma r t , y o u n g o f f i c e r s a t t h e A c a d e my o f M i l i t a r y
Science last year, fascinating discussions. Now, in the advocacy of
these harder-line sovereignty positions, are the young folks a little
mo r e a g g r e s s i v e o n t h i s , l e s s a g g r e s s i v e t h a n o l d e r t h e o r e t i c i a n s o r
established thinkers? Or not? Or is there greater nuance to that
discussion?
M R . K A M P H A U S E N : I d o n ' t t h in k w e k n o w e n o u g h t o ma k e a
s e t o f j u d g me n t s a b o u t t h a t , b u t t h e re a r e a c o u p l e o f p o i n t s t h a t ma y b e
- 87 -
are worth offering in consideration of it.
The first is it's nearly universally the case that the younger
g e n e r a t i o n o f o f f i c e r s a r e mo r e i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y s a v v y . T h e i r f o r e i g n
l a n g u a g e s k i l l s a r e g e n e r a l l y mu c h b e t t e r . C e r t a i n l y t h e i r E n g l i s h
l a n g u a g e s k i l l s a r e mu c h b e t t e r t h a n t h e g e n e r a t i o n s p r e c e d i n g t h e m.
A n d t h e y 'r e p a r t o f t h e I n t e r n e t g e n e r a t i o n a n d n e a r l y f u l l p a r t i c i p a n t s
in it.
B u t w e o u g h t n o t c o n f l a t e t h a t w i t h a s e n s e t h a t t h e y a r e mo r e
s y mp a t h e t i c t o t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e We s t , f o r i n s t a n c e , n o r s h o u l d w e
c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e y a r e a n y l e s s a r d e n t i n t h e p u r s u i t o f t h e mi s s i o n s
that are given to them in support of national interests.
S o w h i l e t h e i n t e r a c t i o n c a n b e mo r e p l e a s a n t , i t d o e s n 't
n e c e s s a r i l y me a n t h a t w e a r e c l o s e r i n t e r ms o f h o w w e l o o k a t t h i n g s .
And I offer that--
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: I w a s n 't i mp l y i n g t h a t o u r
exchange was that way.
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I t h i n k t he r e a r e s o me w h o , i n my
j u d g me n t , p e r h a p s ma k e t h a t mi s t a k e a n d i t 's i mp o r t a n t t o u n d e r s t a n d .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : N o , y e s . N o , w e d o n 't .
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: I wasn't suggesting you were,
c o mmi s s i o n e r , b u t I t h i n k w e n e e d t o t h i n k t h a t t h e y c a n b e h a r d -
headed in pursuit of their national interests as their predecessors, just
ma y b e mo r e a d e p t i n h o w t h e y d o i t .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Mr. Dutton.
MR. DUTTON: I 'm t r y i n g t o r e me mb e r a c t u a l l y . From
a n e c d o t a l e x p e r i e n c e , I t h i n k I w o u l d a g r e e w i t h t h a t - - b u t I 'm n o t s u r e
w h a t t o a t t r i b u t e i t t o - - t h a t s e n i o r a c a d e mi c s , s e n i o r g o v e r n me n t
o f f i c i a l s , e v e n t h e o l d e r g e n e r a t i o n , i s d e f i n i t e l y mo r e n u a n c e d i n t h e i r
t h i n k i n g t h a n my e x p e r i e n c e o f d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h s o me o f t h e y o u n g e r ,
p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w y e r s . T h e r e 's r i g i d i t y t o s o me o f t h e
a p p r o a c h e s o f y o u n g l a w y e r s n o w . M a y b e t h a t 's i n e x p e r i e n c e ; ma y b e
i t ' s j u s t r e f l e c t i n g a p e r s p e c t i v e . I d o n 't k n o w . B u t I d o s e e mo r e
n u a n c e d , mo r e r e f l e c t i v e u n d e r s t a n d i n g w i t h a d d i t i o n a l g r a y h a i r .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Thank you.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: N o t a l l a d d i t i o n a l g r a y
hair.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: I vote for gray hair, definitely a
plus.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : C o mmi s s i o n e r M u l l o y .
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Thank you. Could be the younger
people are feeling their Cheerios. This is to Mr. Dutton. Mr. Meek,
w h o i s g o i n g t o c o me a n d t e s t i f y o n t h e n e x t p a n e l , h e 's t h e A s s o c i a t e
G e n e r a l C o u n s e l o f t h e A i r F o r c e . H e me n t i o n s t h e s a me i s s u e t h a t
- 88 -
y o u me n t i o n o n p a g e f o u r o f y o u r t e s t i mo n y . T h a t i s t h e i s s u e o f t h e
E x c l u s i v e E c o n o mi c Z o n e ( E E Z ) .
My understanding is the Chinese have signed and ratified the
Law of the Sea Convention. The United States has signed it, but we
haven't ratified it.
MR. DUTTON: Yes.
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : B u t w e a d mi t t h a t a t l e a s t t h e E E Z
i s c u s t o ma r y i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w , s o t h e C h i n e s e c o n t e n d — t h a t t h e t e r m
"freedom of navigation and overflight in the EEZ" does not apply to
mi l i t a r y a n d r e c o n n a i s s a n c e a c t i v i t i e s , a n d w e c o n t e n d t h a t i t d o e s ,
t h a t w e c a n d o t h a t w i t h i n t h e E x c l u s i v e E c o n o mi c Z o n e .
Is there a tribunal that we could take this to? There is a tribunal
I k n o w . C a n w e t a k e i t e v e n i f w e 'r e n o t a p a r t y t o t h e C o n v e n t i o n o r
is there an alternative tribunal like the International Court of Justice
that we could take this to if we wanted really to get this resolved one
way or the other and know what international law really would think
about it?
MR. DUTTON: The tribunals that are established by the United
N a t i o n s C o n v e n t i o n o n t h e L a w o f t h e S e a h a v e , my p e r s p e c t i v e i s ,
h a v e d e v e l o p i n g j u r i s d i c t i o n a l a u t h o r i t y . I t 's n o t r e a l c l e a r e x a c t l y
h o w mu c h a u t h o r i t y t h a t t h e t r i b u n a l , t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r i b u n a l o f t h e
L a w o f t h e S e a , w i l l u l t i ma t e l y h a v e .
Certainly, the International Court of Justice would hear this case
if both sides asked it to, I suppose. My point is I don't think we would
want to take it to either one of the tribunals.
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : Wh y ?
M R . D U T T O N : We l l , s o me t i me s t he a n s w e r i s n 't o n e t h a t y o u 'r e
going to want to accept.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Okay.
M R . D U T T O N : F u n d a me n t a l l y , my v i e w i s t h a t t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l
Law of the Sea was advanced significantly by the United Nations
C o n v e n t i o n o n t h e L a w o f t h e S e a . Wh e t h e r y o u v i e w i t a s a r e f l e c t i o n
o f c u s t o ma r y i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w o r w h e t h e r y o u v i e w i t a s n e w t r e a t y
l a w , i t w a s mo v e d f o r w a r d s i g n i f i c a n t l y , b u t t h a t s a i d , t h e r e ' s s t i l l a
l o t o f u n a n s w e r e d q u e s t i o n s a n d t h e r e a r e f u n d a me n t a l l y t h r e e w a y s t o
resolve those questions.
O n e i s b y t h e c u s t o ma r y l a w d e v e l o p me n t o f s t a t e p r a c t i c e , a n d
i t i s a l w a y s t h e mo s t f a v o r a b l e , i n my v i e w , i s f u n d a me n t a l l y t o w o r k
i t o u t a s g r i s t f o r t h e mi l l a mo n g s t a t e s a n d t o h a v e t h e a c c u mu l a t i o n
o f a p p r o a c h e s t o r e s o l v e h o w t h i s w i l l w o r k o u t o v e r t i me , h o w e a c h
i s s u e w i l l w o r k o u t o v e r t i me . T h e s e c o n d , o f c o u r s e , i s t o f u r t h e r
redefine the details of the treaty itself, and then the third is to take it
t o s o me i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r i b u n a l .
The problem with an international tribunal is that sovereigns
- 89 -
h a v e t o a c c e p t t h e r e s u l t s , a n d t h a t 's a v e r y c h a l l e n g i n g t h i n g t o d o .
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : We d o i t a l l t h e t i me i n t h e WT O .
Thank you.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : G e n t l e me n , I t h i n k o u r f e l l o w
c o mmi s s i o n e r s h a v e r u n o u t o f q u e s t i o n s . I w a n t t o t h a n k y o u b o t h f o r
appearing today. I t 's b e e n a v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g d i s c u s s i o n , a n d I
appreciate your expert advice and insights and hope that we can have
y o u b a c k s o me t i me . T h a n k y o u v e r y mu c h .
MR. KAMPHAUSEN: Thank you.
M R . D U T T O N : T h a n k y o u , s i r , i t 's my p l e a s u r e .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: This panel is adjourned.
[ Wh e r e u p o n , a s h o r t r e c e s s w a s t a k e n . ]
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Good afternoon. I 'd l i k e t o
w e l c o me e v e r y o n e t o t h e f i f t h a n d f i n a l p a n e l o f t h e d a y , w h i c h d e a l s
w i t h C h i n a 's v i e w s o f s o v e r e i g n t y i n o u t e r s p a c e a n d c y b e r s p a c e .

PANEL V: CHINESE VIEWS OF SOVEREIGNTY IN SPACE AND

CYBERSPACE

T h i s a f t e r n o o n , f o r t h e l a s t p a n e l , I 'm p l e a s e d t o w e l c o me M r .
Philip Meek, Associate General Counsel of International Affairs of the
A i r F o r c e G e n e r a l C o u n s e l 's O f f i c e ; a n d D r . J a me s L e w i s , s e n i o r
fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
B y ma t t e r o f i n t r o d u c t i o n , l e t me j u s t e l a b o r a t e o n t h e
biographies of our two panelists. Mr. Meek is responsible for
rendering legal advice on a wide variety of international and
operational law issues, principally involving space law and policy,
i n f o r ma t i o n w a r f a r e , t h e l a w o f a r me d c o n f l i c t a n d a r ms c o n t r o l .
Prior to accepting his current civilian position, he served as an
Air Force judge advocate retiring from active duty in 1995 with the
rank of colonel.
H i s s e n i o r mi l i t a r y a s s i g n me n t s i n c l u d e d t h e D i r e c t o r o f
International and Operations Law, Headquarters, United States Air
F o r c e . We l c o me , M r . M e e k .
Jim Lewis is a senior fellow at CSIS and directs its Technology
a n d P u b l i c P o l i c y P r o g r a m. B e f o r e j o i n i n g C S I S , h e w a s a me mb e r o f
the U.S. Foreign Service and Senior Executive Service where he
worked on national security and technology-related issues, including
g l o b a l a r ms s a l e s , e n c r y p t i o n , s p a c e r e mo t e s e n s i n g , a n d h i g h - t e c h
trade with China. Dr. Lewis, pleased to have you here today as well.
Thank you.
G e n t l e me n , w h a t w e 'l l d o , a s i s s t a n d a r d p r a c t i c e , i s g i v e y o u
b o t h s e v e n mi n u t e s f o r o p e n i n g r e ma r k s . Y o u r p r e p a r e d t e s t i mo n y w i l l
b e e n t e r e d i n t h e r e c o r d , a n d w i t h t h a t , I 'l l a s k my c o c h a i r ,
- 90 -
C o mmi s s i o n e r F i e d l e r i f h e h a s a n y c o mme n t s ?
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : N o , j u s t t h a n k y o u f o r c o mi n g ,
g e n t l e me n .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Okay. Mr. Meek, if you would,
please, go first, followed by Dr. Lewis.

STATEMENT OF MR. PHILLIP A. MEEK

ASSOCIATE GENERAL COUNSEL (INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE, WASHINGTON, D.C.

M R . M E E K : T h a n k y o u v e r y mu c h f o r t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n . I w o u l d
l i k e t o t h a n k t h e C o mmi s s i o n f o r i n v i t i n g me h e r e t o d a y t o t a l k a b o u t a
s u b j e c t n e a r a n d d e a r t o my h e a r t , w h i c h i s s p a c e l a w a n d p o l i c y
p r i ma r i l y , a l t h o u g h I a l s o w o r k a b i t i n t h e c y b e r s p a c e a r e n a .
I w o u l d l i k e t o s t a t e , a s t h e o t h e r g o v e r n me n t e mp l o y e e s h a v e
s t a t e d , t h a t t h e s e a r e my p e r s o n a l v i e w s a n d t h e y d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y
r e f l e c t t h e v i e w s o f t h e A i r F o r c e o r t h e D e p a r t me n t o f D e f e n s e .
Wi t h t h a t b e h i n d me - - t h a t 's t h e f i r s t q u e s t i o n my b o s s a l w a y s
a s k s me w h e n I g e t b a c k f r o m a c o n f e r e n c e - - a t t h e o u t s i d e o f my
r e ma r k s , I 'd l i k e t o n o t e t h a t t h e P e o p l e 's R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a h a s n o t , t o
my k n o w l e d g e a n d a s a r e s u l t o f my r e s e a r c h , p u b l i s h e d a n y o f f i c i a l
d o c u me n t s s e t t i n g f o r t h s p e c i f i c c l a i ms o f s o v e r e i g n t y i n o u t e r s p a c e
or cyberspace.
L i k e w i s e , t h e r e 's l i t t l e o r n o t r a n s p a r e n c y i n i t s d o c t r i n e o r
i mp l e me n t i n g p o l i c i e s c o n c e r n i n g e i t h e r s p a c e o r c y b e r s p a c e . S o a s a
result of that, we have to rely on publications and trying to look at the
various levels and the ranks of the individuals, what organizations
t h e y 'r e w i t h , a n d t h e n i n my c a s e , s i n c e I d o n 't s p e a k C h i n e s e , t a l k i n g
to Chinese experts and asking who is this person, what level are they
i n , h o w s h o u l d I l o o k a t t h e i r c o mme n t s . A n d s o my v i e w s a r e b a s e d
o n t h o s e r e a d i n g s a n d d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h s o me o f t h e o t h e r C h i n a
experts.
S p a c e l a w a s a d i s c i p l i n e i s a f l e d g l i n g d i s c i p l i n e . I t c a me i n t o
b e i n g , a l t h o u g h t h e r e h a v e b e e n s o me p r i o r d i s c u s s i o n s , r e a l l y o n
October 4, 1957, when Sputnik was launched. That was a critical date
a l s o f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f o u r d i s c u s s i o n t o d a y , w h i c h I 'l l g e t i n t o , o n
s o me o f o u r d i s a g r e e me n t s , p o s s i b l e d i s a g r e e me n t s w i t h C h i n a .
On that date, when Sputnik was launched into orbit, it passed
over the territories of all of the countries below, and no countries
raised objections that it was violating their territorial airspace.
T h e r e h a d b e e n a l o t o f a c a d e mi c w o r k i n t h i s a r e a b e f o r e , a l o t
of views expressed. Wh e n i t h a p p e n e d , e v e r y b o d y s a t t h e r e a n d
looked, waited, nobody said anything. S o t h a t b e c a me t h e f i r s t
principle in outer space, the freedom of navigation and overflight, no
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t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i ms i n s p a c e .
T h i s p r i n c i p l e d e v e l o p e d o v e r t h e n e x t f e w y e a r s , t h r o u g h mo r e
satellites being placed into orbit. In 1967, the Outer Space Treaty,
which is the grandfather of all space treaties, was concluded. Its three
mo s t i mp o r t a n t a r t i c l e s o r t h r e e o f t h e mo r e i mp o r t a n t o n e s a t t h e v e r y
f r o n t o f t h e t r e a t y , w h i c h s p e c i f i e s t h e i r i mp o r t a n c e , a r e t h e p r i n c i p l e s
o f f r e e d o m o f n a v i g a t i o n a n d o v e r f l i g h t i n s p a c e , t h e i n a b i l i t y t o ma k e
t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i ms i n s p a c e . A l s o t w o o r t h r e e a r t i c l e s s p e c i f i c a l l y
me n t i o n a c t i v i t i e s t h a t a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w .
So whenever I start reviewing proposed space actions or
a c t i v i t i e s , t h a t 's w h e r e I s t a r t . I t 's t h e O u t e r S p a c e T r e a t y a n d t h o s e
three principles.
Interestingly, the Outer Space Treaty does not define space.
S o me c o u n t r i e s h a v e t r i e d t o u s e t h i s t o t h e i r a d v a n t a g e . N e v e r t h e l e s s ,
t h e r e 's b e e n a w i d e v a r i e t y o f o p i n i o n s v o i c e d , o v e r 5 0 o r 6 0
p r o p o s a l s , t o d e f i n e o u t e r s p a c e , b u t t h e o n e c o mmo n d e n o mi n a t o r o f
a l l o f t h e m i s t h a t t h e y a r e a l l v er y s u b j e c t i v e b e c a u s e t h e l i n e b e t w e e n
space and air space is very subjective, and it can vary depending on
w e a t h e r , t e mp e r a t u r e s , c o n d i t i o n s , w i n d s , v a r i o u s t h i n g s .
There has never been a consensus definition, and one of the
reasons it is not in the Outer Space Treaty was that the negotiators
n e v e r c a me t o a n y a g r e e me n t o n a d e f i n i t i o n . I t w a s i n t h e t o o - h a r d
b o x a n d i t w a s s i mp l y s e t a s i d e .
It's also interesting to note that there's no definition in
i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w o f t h e l i mi t s o f a i r s p a c e , t e r r i t o r i a l a i r s p a c e , s o y o u
have neither a definition of space or of airspace whether territorial or
the international.
I 'm n o t a w a r e , o n t h e c y b e r f r o n t , I 'm n o t a w a r e o f a n y
i n t e r n a t i o n a l c y b e r t r e a t i e s t h a t a r e c o mp a r a b l e i n s c o p e a n d
application to the Outer Space Treaties.
M o s t r e g u l a t i o n s i n t h e c y b e r r e a l m a r e d o me s t i c l a w s . Wh e r e a s
a s t a t e ma y i mp o s e l a w s , r e g u l a t i o n s , d i r e c t i v e s , o n n o t o n l y i t s
c i t i z e n s b u t c o u n t r i e s t h a t d o b u s i n e s s t h e r e , t h e r e 's n o c o r r e l a t i v e
i n t e r n a t i o n a l me c h a n i s m o f w h i c h I 'm a w a r e . O n e t h i n g I w a n t t o
p o i n t o u t h e r e , b e c a u s e i t 's a p p l i c a b l e n o t j u s t i n c y b e r s p a c e b u t o u t e r
s p a c e , t h e r e 's b e e n s o me d i s c u s s i o n e a r l i e r t o d a y c o n c e r n i n g s o me
C h i n e s e d o me s t i c l e g i s l a t i o n i n c o r p o r a t i n g s o me o f t h e i r s o v e r e i g n
c l a i ms . T h o s e c l a i ms a r e e f f e c t i v e w i t h i n t h a t n a t i o n s t a t e , b u t t h e y
a r e n o t d e t e r mi n a t i v e o f a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w q u e s t i o n o r r e c o g n i t i o n o f
t h o s e c l a i ms .
F o r i n s t a n c e , C h i n a ma y p a s s a d o me s t i c s t a t u t e t h a t i n c o r p o r a t e s
a particular location like the South China Sea into its national
t e r r i t o r i a l s o v e r e i g n t y ; t h a t d o e s n o t me a n t h a t t h e o t h e r n a t i o n s o f t h e
w o r l d ma y r e c o g n i z e i t . T h e y ma y o r t h e y ma y n o t . T h e y ma y t a k e
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actions to disagree with it.
For instance, in the United States, we have a program referred to
a s t h e F r e e d o m o f N a v i g a t i o n P r o g r a m, w h i c h i s s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r t h e
p u r p o s e o f c h a l l e n g i n g e x c e s s i v e c l a i ms b y g o v e r n me n t s .
In looking at the various approaches that China takes, for
i n s t a n c e , i n n o n - mi l i t a r y a c t i v i t i e s , P r o f e s s o r D u t t o n , I b e l i e v e i t w a s ,
r e f e r e n c e d s o me o f t h e me a s u r e s o f me d i a w a r f a r e , p s y c h o l o g i c a l
warfare, and law-fare.
Wh e n I me n t i o n t h e t e r m " l a w f a r e , " p e o p l e l o o k k i n d o f
q u i z z i c a l o r t h e y l a u g h o r w h a t e v e r . I t ' s n o t a j o k i n g ma t t e r . I t 's
really a very serious effort by the Chinese, not just by the Chinese, by
o t h e r g o v e r n me n t s a s w e l l , b u t p a r t i c u l a r l y c r a f t e d b y t h e C h i n e s e , t o
t r y t o c r e a t e s o me l e g i t i ma c y f o r t h e i r o w n a c t i v i t i e s o r w h a t t h e y ma y
w a n t t o d o i n t h e f u t u r e , a n d i t 's s o me t h i n g t h a t n e e d s t o b e w a t c h e d
very closely.
L e g a l w a r f a r e , a s w a s me n t i o n e d , i s w h e r e a s t a t e a s s e r t s a l e g a l
position to provide justification for its own actions and to deny the
l e g i t i ma c y o f a r e s i s t a n c e t o t h a t .
F r o m a l e g a l p e r s p e c t i v e , t h e mo s t t r o u b l e s o me i n d i c a t o r s o f
C h i n a 's a p p a r e n t a s s e r t i o n s o f s o v e r e i g n t y i n s p a c e a r e t h e i n c r e a s i n g
n u mb e r o f p u b l i c a t i o n s b y i n f l u e n t i a l C h i n e s e a u t h o r s a d v a n c i n g t h e
p r i n c i p l e t h a t C h i n a 's s o v e r e i g n t e r r i t o r y e x t e n d s t h r o u g h o u t e r s p a c e .
As justification for the position, Chinese authors assert that their
t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i ms t o o u t e r s p a c e a r e n o t i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l
law because there is no internationally accepted definition of outer
s p a c e t h a t h a s a d e ma r c a t i o n p o i n t a t w h i c h n a t i o n a l a i r s p a c e e n d s a n d
outer space begins.
A n d t h e n t h e y e x t r a p o l a t e t h e l a c k o f a f o r ma l d e f i n i t i o n i n t o a
claim that essentially asserts Chinese sovereignty over all of the outer
space over territory.
However, any such Chinese assertion of sovereignty would be
c o mp l e t e l y i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l s p a c e l a w . A r t i c l e I I o f t h e
Outer Space Treaty clearly establishes outer space is not subject to
n a t i o n a l a p p r o p r i a t i o n b y a c l a i m o f s o v e r e i g n t y o r b y me a n s o f u s e o r
o c c u p a t i o n o r b y a n y o t h e r me a n s . T h o s e a r e a l l t h e w o r d s . C o v e r s
the waterfront.
In addition, the Chinese authors often overlook the historical
c o n t e x t o f t h e d e f i n i t i o n a l d e b a t e o f o u t e r s p a c e . I t w a s n 't a t t h e
h i g h e r r e a c h e s o f s p a c e . T h a t w a s n 't t h e r e a l i s s u e . T h e i s s u e w a s t h e
l o w e r d e ma r c a t i o n w h e r e y o u l e f t t e r r i t o r i a l a i r s p a c e a n d e n t e r e d o u t e r
s p a c e . S o mo s t o f t h e c l a i ms o f t e r r i t o r i a l , c l a i ms i n o u t e r s p a c e h a v e
d e a l t w i t h t h e g e o s t a t i o n a r y o r b i t o r t h e g e o - o r b i t , 2 2 , 5 0 0 mi l e s o u t ,
not at the very lowest levels.
H o w e v e r , t h e C h i n e s e c l a i m e x t e n d s t o a l l o f o u t e r s p a c e . I t 's
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n o t l i mi t e d t o t h e g e o - o r b i t . I t ' s n o t l i mi t e d t o l o w e r o r b i t s . I t i s
literally a vertical projection of their territory through outer space.
Insofar as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
satellites and activities in outer space are concerned, influential
Chinese writers of the PLA assert that these ISR activities are in
preparation to engage in warfare and as such are not considered within
the concept of Freedom of Navigation.
T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y w o r r i s o me f r o m t h e U . S . p e r s p e c t i v e b e c a u s e
of our significant reliance on space. It could be construed as a
w a r n i n g t h a t I S R s a t e l l i t e s p a s s i n g o v e r C h i n e s e t e r r i t o r y ma y b e
e n g a g e d . N o t a l l C h i n e s e a u t h o r s a g r e e w i t h t h a t p o s i t i o n a n d s o me
recognize the benefits of China adhering to the conventional space law
concepts.
The thing we have to watch here is if China continuously asserts
t h i s p r i n c i p l e a n d t h e y a r e n o t e n g a g e d a t e i t h e r t h e d i p l o ma t i c l e v e l o r
w r i t i n g s , t h e n i t s t a r t s t o b e c o me k i n d o f a n a c c e p t e d i d e a t h a t ma y b e
s o v e r e i g n t y d o e s n o t e n d a t t h e l i mi t o f t e r r i t o r i a l a i r s p a c e .
I n a l a t e r t i me i f t h e y w e r e t o t a k e a n a g g r e s s i v e a c t i o n , f o r
i n s t a n c e , t h e e n g a g e me n t o f a n I S R s a t e l l i t e , t h e y mi g h t a s s e r t t h e
p o s i t i o n t h a t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o mmu n i t y w a s o n n o t i c e o f t h e i r c l a i m
and had not rebutted it.
O t h e r t h a n p o s s i b l e e n d o r s e me n t o f t h i s p o s i t i o n , b y p r o f f e r i n g
t h i s o v e r a c o u p l e o f y e a r s , C h i n a c o u l d a l s o b e a t t e mp t i n g t o e s t a b l i s h
t h i s l e g a l p r e d i c a t e f o r mi l i t a r y a c t i o n .
T h e r e w a s a s i mi l a r c l a i m, b u t l i mi t e d t o t h e g e o - b e l t , b y e i g h t
equatorial countries called the Bogota Declaration. And they were
ma k i n g t h a t c l a i m, n o t o n l y o n t h e b a s i s o f a l a c k o f a d e f i n i t i o n o f
outer space, but also on the grounds that the satellite in geo-orbit
s t a y e d i n t h e s a me r e l a t i v e f i x e d p l a c e o v e r i t s t e r r i t o r y , a n d i t h a d a n
e c o n o mi c b e n e f i t . T h e y w e r e b a s i c a l l y t r y i n g t o e x t e n d t h a t e c o n o mi c
benefit from space.
The Bogota Declaration has been rejected by all the nations of
the world except for those eight countries. It does not have support
a n d my r e s e a r c h d i d n o t f i n d t h a t C h i n a e v e r s u p p o r t e d i t o r r e a l l y
ma d e a n y c o mme n t o n e w a y o r t h e o t h e r . S o , h o p e f u l l y , i f C h i n a w e r e
t o c o n t i n u e i t s e x e r t i o n s , p e r h a p s t h e o n l y c o u n t r i e s t h a t mi g h t t r y t o
a g r e e w i t h t h e m, b e c a u s e i t w o u l d s u p p o r t t h e i r p o s i t i o n , w o u l d b e t h e
Bogota group. But as I said, that claim is rejected by the nations of
the world.
Wh a t c a p a b i l i t i e s d o e s C h i n a h a v e t o d e n y a c c e s s ? E v e r y b o d y i s
v e r y f a mi l i a r , I 'm s u r e , w i t h t h e v e r y e x p a n s i v e c o u n t e r s p a c e p r o g r a m
t h e C h i n e s e h a v e . I t d e a l s w i t h d i r e c t a s c e n t A S A T mi s s i l e s , j a mme r s ,
G P S j a mme r s , d i r e c t e n e r g y w e a p o n s , l a s e r s . I t 's a v e r y b r o a d
p r o g r a m.
- 94 -
 If you want to look to hard evidence of their capability to deny
access by the U.S., all you have to do is look at the Chinese ASAT test
of January 2007 or the blinding of a U.S. satellite with a laser in
S e p t e mb e r 2 0 0 6 o r t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f C h i n a t o j a m s a t e l l i t e
c o mmu n i c a t i o n s .
I n t h e c y b e r r e a l m, C h i n a h a s a l r e a d y e me r g e d a s a l e a d e r i n
c y b e r w a r f a r e . T h e y a r e v e r y g o o d a t t h i s . I n t h e U . S . , t h e r e 's b e e n
mu c h p u b l i c i t y o n c e r t a i n e f f o r t s t h a t a p p e a r t o o r i g i n a t e f r o m C h i n a
t h a t a r e a t t a c k i n g i n t o U . S . c o mp u t e r s .
The last thing I would like to skip to here is the claim of China
i n t h e i r E E Z . We 'v e t a l k e d a b o u t i t h e r e a l i t t l e b i t t h i s mo r n i n g . T h e
C h i n e s e h a v e , b y t h e i r a c t o f J u n e 1 9 9 8 , t h e E x c l u s i v e E c o n o mi c Z o n e
a n d C o n t i n e n t a l S h e l f A c t , b a s i c a l l y i n c l u d e d s o me w o r d s i n t h e r e t h a t
are not consistent with an EEZ; specifically, China included their
security laws and regulations.
This is basically trying to establish a security zone in the EEZ.
T h a t i s n o t w h a t a n E E Z i s . E E Z i s e c o n o mi c e x p l o i t a t i o n . T h e U . S .
continuously resists this. However, if this goes unchallenged for the
s p a c e r e a l m, i t i s o n e o f t h o s e d o me s t i c l e g a l i n i t i a t i v e s , t h a t l e g a l
w a r f a r e I w a s t a l k i n g a b o u t t h a t r e f e r e n c e s a c l a i me d l e g a l b a s i s f o r
e n g a g e me n t o f I S R s a t e l l i t e s p a s s i n g o v e r .
So one thing I would suggest that we do is to continue to watch
f o r C h i n e s e l e g i s l a t i o n w h i c h ma y b e k i n d o f a n o t i c e a s t o w h e r e t h e y
a r e g o i n g , a t l e a s t o n a l a w - f a r e f r o n t , t o s u p p o r t s o me o f t h e i r o t h e r
mi l i t a r y a c t i v i t i e s .
I t h i n k I 'l l h o l d i t r i g h t t h e r e . T h a n k y o u , s i r .
[ T h e s t a t e me n t f o l l o w s : ]

Prepared Statement of Mr. Phillip A. Meek

Associate General Counsel (International Affairs Affairs)
Department of the Air Force, Washington, D.C.

"China cannot accept the monopolization of outer space by another power."

Bao Shixiu, Senior Fellow, Academy of Military Sciences of the People's Liberation Army.

I would like to thank the U.S. – China Economic and Security Review Commission for inviting me to
testify before the Commission today. I appreciate the opportunity to discuss the legal aspects of China’s
views on sovereignty in outer space and in cyberspace, two closely interrelated domains. The members of
this Commission are very much aware of the interest of the United States in China’s views on sovereignty
in space, not only in terms of our bilateral relationship with China, but also in the way other nations may
be influenced by watching China’s claims and actions, and the U.S. response thereto.

I would like to state that the views I express today are my personal opinions, and do not necessarily
represent the views of the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the United States
Government.

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At the outset of my remarks, I would like to note that the Government of the People’s Republic of China
(PRC) has not, to my knowledge, published any official documents setting forth its specific claims of
sovereignty in outer space or in cyber space. Likewise, there is little to no transparency in its doctrine or
implementing policies concerning either space or cyber space. Accordingly, we must rely on publications
of articles in the media written by influential individuals at high levels of the Chinese government and
academia, and study the actions of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the terrestrial domains of land,
sea and air, to discern, where possible China’s views concerning the space and cyber domains. This is a
challenging process with the obvious possibility of making erroneous judgments due to a lack of
information.

As a prelude to addressing the questions posed by the Commission in the letter of invitation to testify here
today, I would like to provide the Commission with a short summary of the overarching framework of
space law and cyber law relevant to our discussion. This background discussion will lead us into the
discussion of China’s views on sovereignty in space and cyberspace, and how those views fit within
existing international law. Finally, I will address the national security space implications of China’s
potential assertions of sovereignty in space and cyberspace.

Space law is a fledgling, but nevertheless increasingly important, discipline within the larger field of
international law. One can argue when space law came into being, but for all practical purposes it occurred
no later than October 4, 1957, when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik and its orbit passed over the
territories of the countries below without any objections that Sputnik was violating their territorial airspace.
That was a critical moment in the development of space law, and a moment that is central to our
discussion here today.

The most important sources of international law governing outer space are four multi-lateral treaties
negotiated under the auspices of the United Nations. The primary space treaties with implications for
national security space activities are the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, the Rescue and Return Agreement of
1968, the Liability Convention of 1972, and the Registration Convention of 1975.

The United States, China and most major space powers are States Parties to those four treaties. Of those
treaties, the Outer Space Treaty is by far the most important, indeed it is the “grandfather,” of all space
treaties. It was the first United Nations treaty that established broad principles for activities in outer space.
Any analysis of the legal aspects of China’s assertions of sovereignty in space should begin with the Outer
Space Treaty. Its most relevant provisions with national security implications are:

- The exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, shall
be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries…and shall be the province of
all mankind. Outer space…shall be free for exploration and use by all States…on a basis of
equality and in accordance with international law, and there shall be free access to all areas of
celestial bodies. (Art. I)

- Outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national
appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.
(Art. II)

- States Parties to the Treaty shall carry on activities in the exploration and use of outer space,
including the Moon and other celestial bodies, in accordance
with international law, including the Charter of the United Nations, in the interest of
maintaining international peace and security and promoting
international cooperation and understanding. (Art. III)

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 - States Parties to the Treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects
carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass
destruction, install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space
in any other manner. The Moon and other celestial bodies
shall be used …exclusively for peaceful purposes. (Art. IV)

Interestingly, the Outer Space Treaty does not define “space” or “outer space.” The demarcation point
between airspace and outer space is still an open question, although it has been studied since before
Sputnik rocketed into low earth orbit in 1957. One complicating factor is that the term “airspace” has
never been defined in international law. Other factors are the various schools of thought that have been
proposed as the basis for developing a definition that would be acceptable in the international community.
No consensus has ever been reached, and it is unlikely that this issue will be resolved in the foreseeable
future.

Concerning the “peaceful purposes” language in Article IV of the Outer Space Treaty, the majority of
States Parties to the treaty interpret that language as meaning “non-aggressive” and not as a prohibition on
military activities in space. Under the U.S. view, “peaceful purposes” allows defense and intelligence-
related activities conducted in pursuit of national interests. This is the logical interpretation of the term
when considering the Outer Space Treaty as a whole, and also considering the fact that militaries have been
in space since the first satellites were launched into low earth orbit in the 1950s, and since the first
cosmonauts and astronauts ventured into outer space. That interpretation is also consistent with the
practice of the majority of other space-faring nations. Significantly, the number of nations conducting
military and intelligence activities in space increases every year.

Although the People’s Republic of China has not issued any formal statements concerning its interpretation
of “peaceful purposes,” the writings of influential Chinese authors suggests that China may consider the
phrase “peaceful purposes” to mean “non-military.” This interpretation seems inconsistent with China’s
well-developed People’s Liberation Army (PLA) space weapons programs, and the fact that the Chinese
taikonauts (astronauts) are fighter pilots selected from the PLA Air Force. In addition, this interpretation is
inconsistent with the existence of Chinese reconnaissance/imagery satellites, presumably military in
nature, in orbit according to the Office of the Secretary of Defense in its unclassified Annual Report to
Congress, Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2007. One explanation of what may be
China’s interpretation of “peaceful purposes” to mean “non-military” could be its perception that such an
interpretation would give it favorable international media exposure, notwithstanding the reality of their
significant military involvement in space.

I am not aware of any international cyber treaties that are comparable in scope and application to the outer
space treaties. Most regulation of the cyber realm is in the form of national laws and regulations. This is
true for both the U.S. and China. The international cyber treaties that exist are primarily in the areas of
criminal law, privacy, and intellectual law such as copyrights and patents.

Is China attempting to protect or advance what it considers its sovereignty in the outer space and cyber
space domains? What non-military measures has China undertaken or is it considering?

As an overlay to responding to these questions, we should recognize China’s modus operandi to combine
several interrelated non-military components into a coordinated political approach with the objective of
justifying the legitimacy of future military warfare. These components include at a minimum media
warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare.

Media warfare is the utilization of the news media and information resources to develop a favorable
environment to achieve a propaganda victory, and to break the adversary’s will to fight. Psychological
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warfare encompasses planned psychological operations to convey selected information and indicators to
foreign audiences to influence their emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of
foreign governments, organizations, groups and individuals. The purpose of psychological operations is to
induce or reinforce foreign attitudes and behavior favorable to the originator’s objectives. It includes
deception, which is utilized to mislead and surprise an adversary so that wrong decisions and actions are
taken. And it includes schemes to create divisions among leaders, their subordinates and other
organizations.

One has only to read the comments of Chinese officials and articles in daily newspapers and publications,
listen to television programs, and watch China in action in various United Nations fora such as the General
Assembly, Conference on Disarmament, and the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space to
recognize that media warfare and psychological warfare are in full swing. These non-military measures are
most likely used for the purpose of developing negative international public opinion concerning the U.S.
National Space Policy and our various military space programs.

The last of the three components is legal warfare, wherein a state asserts legal positions to provide
justification for its own military actions, or to deny the legitimacy of the adversary’s resistance. Such legal
justifications are intended to engender international support while mobilizing its own military forces to
engage in warfare. Across a number of fronts, China could be in the process of laying the legal
foundations for possible conflict in outer space and cyber space.

From a legal perspective, the most troublesome indicators of China’s apparent assertions of sovereignty in
space are the increasing number of publications by influential Chinese authors advancing the principle that
China’s sovereign territorial airspace extends through outer space. As justification for its position, Chinese
authors assert that territorial claims to outer space are not inconsistent with international law because there
is no legally accepted definition of “outer space” that defines the demarcation point at which territorial
airspace ends and outer space begins. They then extrapolate the lack of a formal definition into a claim
that, essentially, asserts China’s sovereignty over all of outer space above its territory.

Any Chinese assertion of sovereignty in outer space would be completely inconsistent with international
space law. Article II of the Outer Space Treaty, clearly establishes that outer space is not subject to
national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means. In
addition, the Chinese authors’ argument overlooks the historical context of the definitional debate, which
basically revolves around the minimum altitude above the earth at which orbital flight can be sustained,
i.e., low earth orbit. You do not need a formal legal definition of outer space to recognize when you are in
outer space.

Insofar as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) activities in outer space over the territory of
China are concerned, influential Chinese writers of the PLA assert that these ISR activities are preparations
to engage in warfare, and as such are not considered within the concept of freedom of navigation embodied
in the Outer Space Treaty. This would be a particularly worrisome legal position for China to take since it
could be construed as a warning that ISR satellites passing over Chinese territory may be engaged. Not all
Chinese authors agree with this position, however, and some recognize the benefits to China of adhering to
conventional space law precepts.

By proffering these arguments over a period of years, China could be attempting to establish the legal
predicate for military action in the future. It could also be testing the waters to see if its assertions of
sovereignty in outer space garnered any support – or at least no vocal objection - in the international
community. In that regard, eight equatorial states (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Congo, Ecuador, Indonesia,
Kenya, Uganda and Zaire) signed the Bogota Declaration in December 1976. This Declaration set forth
territorial claims to the segments of the geostationary orbit over their respective countries. The basis for
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this assertion of sovereignty was twofold: (1) there is no agreed definition of “outer space” under the Outer
Space Treaty, and therefore the nonappropriation principle of Article II impliedly does not apply to the
geostationary orbit, and (2) a satellite in the geostationary orbit appears to be stationary in the sky, when
viewed from the earth, and is fixed on a given point of the Equator. The Equatorial countries declared that
the geostationary synchronous orbit is a physical fact linked, in effect, to their respective territory on Earth.

Other than possible endorsement from the countries that signed the Bogota Declaration, China should not
garner support for their position since it would undercut significantly, if not eliminate, the fundamental
principles of nonappropriation and freedom of navigation in space. The Bogota Declaration has never
been recognized by the other parties to the Outer Space Treaty and is generally disregarded. Nevertheless,
a coordinated action by China and the countries that signed the Bogota Declaration could be problematic.

Because China is opaque in its space and cyber space policies and doctrine, and because it has not issued
formal government documents through diplomatic channels or otherwise explained its positions, it is
difficult for the nations of the world to engage the PRC government in the event of disagreement with their
policies. If challenged, China can always deny that the writings of particular authors reflect its official
position. Conversely, if China takes action consistent with the positions espoused by the various theorists,
including the use of the PLA to enforce its sovereignty claims, it could assert that the international
community was on notice as to the Chinese legal positions articulated by individuals in positions of
authority over a period of years.

What capabilities does China have the capacity to deploy to deny access to what it views as its sovereign
space in either outer space or cyber space?

The OSD 2007 Report states that China is deploying advanced imagery, reconnaissance, and earth resource
systems with military applications. Further, the Report notes China’s robust, multidimensional
counterspace program, including satellite communications jammers, GPS jammers, direct ascent ASAT
missiles, and a range of other technologies being pursued such as directed-energy (e.g., lasers and radio
frequency weapons) for ASAT missions.

As hard evidence of China’s capability to deny access by the U.S. and other countries to outer space over
Chinese territory and elsewhere, we need to look no further than the Chinese kinetic ASAT test of January
2007 that destroyed a Chinese weather satellite in orbit, or the blinding of a U.S. satellite with a laser in
September 2006, or the capability of China to jam common satellite communications bands and satellite
navigation receivers.

None of these counterspace weapons are prohibited under current international law. However, when
coupled with China’s continuous pursuit in the United Nations Conference on Disarmament of a space
arms control treaty it has cosponsored with Russia, to wit, the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space
(PAROS) treaty that would ban the deployment (but not the research, development, testing and production)
of these counterspace weapons into outer space, one has to wonder about the purpose of such a well-
developed counterspace program. At a minimum, there is a contradiction between China’s oft-stated
commitment to an outer space free of weapons and its extensive counterspace weapons program that has
not been explained.

In the cyber realm, China has already emerged as a world leader in cyberwarfare. The OSD 2007 Report
on China notes that the PLA is investing in computer network operations (CNO) concepts including
computer network attack, computer network defense, and computer network exploitation. The PLA sees
CNO as critical to achieving “electromagnetic dominance” early in a conflict, and to that end has
established information warfare units to attack enemy computer systems and networks.

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Some analysts attribute computer network attacks originating from China to highly skilled civilian, non-
governmental “gray hat” hackers who are unofficially affiliated with the Chinese government. These
professional “gray hats” can be mobilized to attack computer systems if needed, but they are not, under this
thinking, formal agents of the state. The actions of these civilian hackers would give the PRC deniability,
while at the same time significantly increasing the frequency and lethality of cyber attacks against military
and civilian targets within the U.S. or other nations.

Based on China’s historical actions to protect its sovereignty in other areas, what actions might the United
States expect to see China take in the coming years with regard to outer space and cyber space?

Recall the earlier discussion of legal warfare as exercised by China. It is significant to note that in June
1998, the PRC passed the “Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf Act.” This Act created an
exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with 200 nautical mile limits from its coastal baseline, and claimed the
right, inter alia, to broadly undefined powers to enforce laws in the EEZ, “including security…laws and
regulations.” Based on the Act, the PRC does not recognize the airspace above its EEZ as “international
airspace” and has interfered with and protested U.S. reconnaissance flights over its EEZ. The U.S. has
protested this sovereignty claim as a violation of international law numerous times since this law was
passed, but to no avail. This law forms the domestic legal basis for China’s interception, harassment, and
engagement of U.S. aircraft flying in the EEZ.

Remember that in 2001, Chinese fighter aircraft intercepted an unarmed US Navy EP-3 reconnaissance
aircraft flying in international airspace. One of the Chinese fighters collided with the EP-3. The EP-3
suffered extensive damage and made an emergency landing in China, where officials detained the aircrew
for a period of weeks. China had for many years objected to these reconnaissance flights in their EEZ,
alleging that the flights equated with preparations for conflict. Although these flights by US Navy aircraft
were lawful under international law, China nevertheless deployed military fighter aircraft to harass the
Navy EP-3, with unfortunate results.

Since Chinese authors have voiced similar objections to ISR satellites passing over China’s territory and its
EEZ, it is conceivable that China would assert the rationale of the Exclusive Economic Zone and
Continental Shelf Act as their claimed legal basis for any attacks on these satellites in outer space. Further,
China might extend its actions beyond ISR satellites and enforce any alleged territorial claims in outer
space by engaging commercial communications satellites and direct broadcasting satellites that pass
overhead and broadcast materials China considered objectionable or a threat to its national security.

Therefore, a factor to watch is whether China institutes domestic legislation establishing Chinese territorial
jurisdiction in outer space based upon vertical extensions of China’s boundaries. This action could be
evidence of the legal warfare initiatives discussed previously, and definitely would be a cause for concern.
China has a history of using military force in other areas of contested jurisdictional claims, such as in the
Spratley Islands, and in boundary disputes with Viet Nam and India. We should consider the possibility
that China may exert similar force in space, and we should plan accordingly.

On the cyber front, we might expect China to pursue more actively a range of domestic legal measures,
such as the revocation of business licenses or the institution of lawsuits, against commercial entities that
decline to abide by China’s requests to cease sending certain materials or information over the internet. If
those legal initiatives failed, China might resort to computer network attack to remedy what it perceives as
a security threat to China.

If China is able to successfully assert its views on sovereignty in outer space and cyber space, what impact
will this have on the United States, especially U.S. national security?

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Given the significant reliance of the U.S. on its space assets and the benefits it and other nations receive
from the permissive outer space legal environment, any Chinese efforts to undercut that well-established
legal regime would affect the national security of the U.S. and other space-faring nations adversely. In this
context, I am not limiting national security impacts to military and intelligence considerations only; rather,
national security considerations must include the critical contributions of the civil and commercial space
sectors as well as economic considerations. Any attempt by China to establish territorial claims in outer
space would strike at the very core of space law and should be strongly opposed at all levels of
government.
China’s potential assertions of sovereignty in space are not just a bilateral issue between the U.S. and
China. All nations that benefit from space would be affected adversely. The global economy is dependent
upon the fundamental principles of freedom of navigation in outer space, and upon the inability of nations
to assert territorial claims in space.

Ladies and gentlemen, it has been a privilege to appear before this U.S.-China Commission today. I look
forward to your questions.

HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Very good. Thank you, Mr.

Meek. Dr. Lewis.

STATEMENT OF JAMES A. LEWIS

CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
WASHINGTON, D.C.

D R . L E WI S : T h a n k y o u a n d t h a n k s t o t h e C o mmi s s i o n f o r t h e
opportunity to testify. I thought the questions that you posed were
b o t h i n t e r e s t i n g a n d d i f f i c u l t . S o I 'l l t r y a n d r e s p o n d t o s o me o f t h e m.
O n C h i n a 's v i e w s o n s o v e r e i g n t y , a n d s o me o f t h i s , o f c o u r s e ,
y o u 'v e h e a r d o v e r t h e c o u r s e o f t h e d a y , e v e n t h o u g h t h e y 'r e s h a p e d i n
p a r t b y t h e b e l i e f t h a t C h i n a i s o n l y r e c l a i mi n g i t s r i g h t f u l p o s i t i o n a s
a g r e a t p o w e r a f t e r d e c a d e s o f e x p l o i t a t i o n , C h i n a 's t h i n k i n g o n
s o v e r e i g n t y i s a l s o s h a p e d b y t h e C o l d Wa r .
C h i n a a t t i me s s t i l l d e s c r i b e s t h e U . S . a s h e g e mo n i c . H e g e mo n y
i s o n e o f t h e s e C o l d Wa r l e f t o v e r s . I t e x p l a i n s t h e U . S . a c t i o n s a s
b e i n g t a k e n s o l e l y t o r e i n f o r c e A me r i c a 's g l o b a l d o mi n a n c e a n d
i n c l u d e s n o t i o n s l i k e A me r i c a n e mp i r e , h y p e r p o w e r .
Please note that these explanations are not confined to China.
I t 's p a r t o f a l a r g e r c o l l e c t i o n o f i d e a s a c c e p t e d b y ma n y i n E u r o p e ,
L a t i n A me r i c a a n d o t h e r r e g i o n s .
O n e p r o b l e m f o r t h e U . S . , t h o u g h , i s t h a t C h i n a 's c o n c e p t u a l ma p
f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s i s s h a p e d b y i t s e x p e r i e n c e o f i mp e r i a l i s m
a n d t h e C o l d Wa r .
T h e r e s u l t i s t h a t C h i n a c a n e a s i l y mi s i n t e r p r e t a c t i o n s t a k e n b y
t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . T h a t t h e U . S . i s n o t a h e g e mo n o r a n e mp i r e d o e s
n o t me a n t h a t C h i n a o r o t h e r n a t i o n s a r e n o t s e e k i n g t o c o n s t r a i n o u r
power.
T o t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e n o t i o n o f h e g e mo n y i n f l u e n c e s C h i n e s e
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t h i n k i n g , i t me a n s t h a t e x i s t i n g r u l e s a n d s t r u c t u r e s f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l
activities are seen as intended, seen by China as intended to benefit
t h e h e g e mo n a n d f o r t h a t r e a s o n n o t e n t i r e l y l e g i t i ma t e o r d e s e r v i n g
adherence.
T h i s i s a t h e me o f t e n h e a r d i n n e g o t i a t i o n s , t h a t C h i n a s h o u l d
not be bound by international conventions created without its
p a r t i c i p a t i o n o r c o n s e n t . T h i s i s o f t e n a c c o mp a n i e d b y t h e s u s p i c i o n
that international conventions are actually designed to keep China at a
disadvantage.
T h e r e i s a p o w e r f u l s e n s e o f g r i e v a n c e a mo n g t h e C h i n e s e , a n d
t h i s c o mb i n a t i o n s u g g e s t s t o me t h a t i t 's n o t s o mu c h t h a t C h i n a i s
s e e k i n g t o e x p a n d i t s o w n s o v e r e i g n t y o r c o n t r o l a s mu c h a s i t i s
r e l u c t a n t t o r e c o g n i z e o r r e s p e c t i n t er n a t i o n a l n o r ms o r t h e s o v e r e i g n t y
a n d c o n t r o l o f o t h e r s w h e n t h e s e i nt e r f e r e w i t h C h i n a 's p u r s u i t o f i t s
own interests.
All nations engage in the calculus of deciding when self-interest
o u t w e i g h s o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , b u t C h i n a 's d e c i s i o n s t e n d t o c l u s t e r
mo r e o n t h e s e l f - i n t e r e s t e d e n d o f t h e s c a l e .
C h i n a 's p o v e r t y a n d e x p e r i e n c e b e f o r e 1 9 4 5 a r e s o me t i me s h e l d
a s j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t h i s , a l o n g w i t h p o i n t e d c o mp a r i s o n s o f U . S .
a c t i o n s t h a t a p p e a r t o r u n c o n t r a r y t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o r ms .
Sovereignty and self-interest in China are closely linked to three
goals that guide action and thought. These goals are: preventing any
i n t e r n a l a c t i v i t y t h a t c o u l d u n d e r mi n e t h e p a r t y ' s c o n t r o l ; r e s t o r i n g
sovereign control over Taiwan; and rebalancing or reconstructing the
i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r d e r t o g i v e C h i n a mo r e w e i g h t a n d i n f l u e n c e .
C h i n a 's a c t i v i t i e s i n c y b e r s p a c e a n d i n s p a c e a r e u n d e r t a k e n i n
p u r s u i t o f t h e s e g o a l s . T h e p r i ma r y p u r p o s e o f C h i n a 's s p a c e p r o g r a m
i s p o l i t i c a l . C h i n a 's a t t i t u d e t o w a r d s o v e r e i g n t y i n s p a c e , a s y o u 'v e
heard, is best seen as an unwillingness to defer to other nations.
S p a c e e x p l o r a t i o n h a s a p o l i t i c a l d i me n s i o n i n t h a t i t
d e mo n s t r a t e s t h e r e t u r n t o g r e a t n e s s a n d a n e me r g i n g s u p e r i o r i t y . H u
J i n t a o d e s c r i b e d t h e s u c c e s s o f C h i n a 's ma n n e d s p a c e f l i g h t a s , q u o t e ,
"a historic step taken by the Chinese people in their endeavor to
s u r mo u n t t h e p e a k o f t h e w o r l d 's s c i e n c e a n d t e c h n o l o g y . "
S o t h a t " s u r mo u n t t h e p e a k " p h r a s e i s v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g t o me .
C h i n a h a s b e e n v e r y c i r c u ms p e c t i n i t s o f f i c i a l s t a t e me n t s a b o u t s p a c e ,
a g a i n a s y o u 'v e h e a r d , s i n c e i t h a s n o d e s i r e t o b e g i n a r a c e w i t h t h e
United States and others.
T h u s , w h i l e w e c a n f i n d s t a t e me nt s a b o u t e x p l o r i n g t h e mo o n a n d
e x p l o i t i n g i t s r e s o u r c e s , t h e r e a r e n o s t a t e d c l a i ms t o s o v e r e i g n t y a n d
o w n e r s h i p . T h e r e a r e o c c a s i o n a l s t a t e me n t s i n t h e o f f i c i a l C h i n e s e
p r e s s a b o u t h o w C h i n a 's , q u o t e , " g o r g e o u s r e d f l a g ” w i l l w a v e o v e r t h e
mo o n a n d t h a t i mp l i e s a d e g r e e o f c o n t r o l , b u t t h e C h i n e s e t h e ms e l v e s
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appear not to have thought through the issue, perhaps because owning
t h e mo o n i s s u c h a d i s t a n t e v e n t u a l i t y .
T o s o me e x t e n t , C h i n a 's u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o d e f e r t o e x i s t i n g
i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o r ms w h e n i t c o me s t o s p a c e o r c y b e r s p a c e c r e a t e s
a d d i t i o n a l r i s k s a n d t h e r i s k s o f s l i d i n g i n t o mo r e o v e r t c o n f l i c t .
C h i n a 's d e c i s i o n - ma k i n g p r o c e s s f o r s e c u r i t y i s w e a k a n d
d i s j o i n t e d , i n c r e a s i n g t h e l i k e l i h o o d t h a t B e i j i n g c o u l d mi s c a l c u l a t e
t h e c o s t o f a d v a n c i n g i t s s o v e r e i g n t y o r f l o u t i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o r ms .
T h e r e i s a l s o a s t r o n g e mo t i o n a l n a t i o n a l i s m i n C h i n a t h a t p a r t y
l e a d e r s b o t h e x p l o i t a n d f e a r . T h i s e mo t i o n a l n a t i o n a l i s m c o mb i n e d
w i t h t h e w e a k d e c i s i o n - ma k i n g c o u l d p e r h a p s l e a d t o u n f o r t u n a t e
c h o i c e s f o r B e i j i n g , a c h o i c e b e t w e e n mi l i t a r y c o n f r o n t a t i o n o r a l o s s
o f r e g i me a u t h o r i t y .
C h i n e s e a n t i - s a t e l l i t e e f f o r t s a r e a g o o d e x a mp l e o f t h i s . C h i n a
u n d e r e s t i ma t e d t h e f o r e i g n r e a c t i o n t o i t s t e s t s . I t s e e ms t h a t i n
d e c i d i n g w h e t h e r t o s h o o t a s a t e l l i t e , C h i n a 's l e a d e r s ma y h a v e
n e g l e c t e d t o c o n s u l t t h e i r o w n f o r e ig n mi n i s t r y a n d t h u s w e r e s u r p r i s e d
by the outcry over the tests.
China had denied for years that it was building anti-satellite
weapons and urged, as it continues to urge, a treaty banning weapons
i n s p a c e . I t s l e a d e r s s e e m t o h a v e u n d e r e s t i ma t e d t h e e f f e c t o f t h e t e s t
o n t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e s e s t a t e me n t s .
T h e mo t i v e s a n d t h e d e c i s i o n - ma k i n g p r o c e s s , t o t h e e x t e n t w e
k n o w i t , t h a t l a y b e h i n d C h i n a 's A S A T t e s t s h a v e s e r i o u s i mp l i c a t i o n s
f o r t h e i d e a o f a n o u t e r s p a c e t r e a t y . T h e r e a r e ma n y t e c h n i c a l r e a s o n s
w h y s u c h a t r e a t y w o u l d b e e a s y t o e v a d e . V e r i f y i n g c o mp l i a n c e
w o u l d b e d i f f i c u l t i f a c o u n t r y w a n t e d t o c o n c e a l p r o g r a ms . A n d i n
cases of countries like China and Russia, which do not always observe
i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o r ms , t r e a t i e s ma k e a n i n a d e q u a t e g u a r a n t e e f o r
security.
T h e r e a r e me a s u r e s t h a t c o u l d l e t a s p a c e w e a p o n s t r e a t y
s u c c e e d , b u t t h e y w o u l d i n v o l v e t r a n s p a r e n c y a n d i n t r u s i v e c o mp l i a n c e
me a s u r e s t h a t I d o n o t b e l i e v e R u s s i a o r C h i n a w o u l d a c c e p t .
S i mi l a r l y , a l l e g e d C h i n e s e a c t i v i t i e s i n c y b e r s p a c e d e mo n s t r a t e
a n u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c c e p t i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o r ms a n d p e r h a p s a
mi s c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e r i s k s o f t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s . T h i s s u mme r l e a d e r s i n
F r a n c e , B r i t a i n , G e r ma n y a n d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a l l r e mo n s t r a t e d w i t h
China over its alleged cyber intrusions.
If China was responsible, and it likely was, it suggests that
C h i n a u n d e r e s t i ma t e d t h e r i s k s o f b e i n g c a u g h t o r b e l i e v e d i t c o u l d
d i s r e g a r d t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s . T h a t s a i d , C h i n a 's p r i ma r y i n t e r e s t i n
c y b e r s p a c e i s t o p r e v e n t i t f r o m b e c o mi n g a d o ma i n w h e r e t h e r e g i me 's
control can be challenged.
T h e r e a r e o t h e r g o a l s , o f c o u r s e : t h e u s e o f i n f o r ma t i o n
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t e c h n o l o g y t o a i d e c o n o mi c g r o w t h ; e s p i o n a g e ; a n d o f c o u r s e
i n f o r ma t i o n w a r f a r e a g a i n s t p o t e n t i a l o p p o n e n t s l i k e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .
B u t t h e c e n t r a l f o c u s i s o n s e c u r i n g c y b e r s p a c e t o p r e v e n t d o me s t i c
political challenges.
C h i n a h a s t h e mo s t s o p h i s t i c a t e d c o n t r o l s o f a n y n a t i o n i n
cyberspace. Its regulations apply its existing political restrictions on
s p e e c h a n d i n f o r ma t i o n s h a r i n g t o t h e I n t e r n e t . T h e y 'r e r e i n f o r c e d b y
a c o mp l e me n t a r y s y s t e m o f v o l u n t a r y c o mp l i a n c e a n d s e l f - r e g u l a t i o n
a mo n g n e t w o r k s e r v i c e p r o v i d e r s . A n d f i n a l l y , C h i n a h a s l a u n c h e d a n
e x p e n s i v e p r o j e c t t o b u i l d c o mp u t e r i z e d mo n i t o r i n g o f a l l d o me s t i c
c o mmu n i c a t i o n s .
It is not clear, however, that these activities represent an effort
t o e x p a n d s o v e r e i g n t y i n t o n e w d o ma i n s . T h i s i s n o t b e c a u s e t h e
C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t h a s o f f i c i a l l y r e n o u n c e d t h e p u r s u i t o f h e g e mo n y -
- I ' m s u r e t h e me mb e r s o f t h e C o mmi s s i o n f i n d t h i s t o b e a c o mf o r t - - b u t
because China does not plan to increase its territory nor does it seek to
f o r c e o t h e r n a t i o n s t o a d o p t i t s mo d e l o f g o v e r n me n t .
C h i n a w o u l d l i k e t o b e t h e mo s t i n f l u e n t i a l n a t i o n i n A s i a . I t
would like to see U.S. global influence reduced and the party would
l i k e t o r e ma i n u n c h a l l e n g e d i n i t s c o n t r o l . T h e s e a r e t h e p o l i t i c a l
objectives that Chinese activities in cyberspace and space are pursuing
a n d t h e y 'r e p a r t o f a l a r g e r s t r a t e g y t o h e l p a c h i e v e t h e m.
T h i s h a s b e e n o n l y a c u r s o r y s u mma r y o f a v e r y c o mp l e x t o p i c ,
o n e t h a t t h e C o mmi s s i o n , t h o u g h , h a s r i g h t l y i d e n t i f i e d a s c r u c i a l t o
o u r b i l a t e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p . C h i n a 's v i e w s t o w a r d s o v e r e i g n t y i n c l u d e
o u t w a r d f a c i n g g o a l s o f a s s e r t i n g C h i n a 's s t a t u s , i n c r e a s i n g i t s p o w e r
and influence, and they also have inward facing goals of protecting
r e g i me a u t h o r i t y .
I t 's w o r t h b e a r i n g i n mi n d t h a t w h i l e s o me o f C h i n a 's a p p r o a c h t o
s o v e r e i g n t y i s s p e c i f i c t o ma i n t a i n i n g t h e p o w e r o f t h e c u r r e n t r e g i me ,
ma n y o f t h e p o l i c i e s t h a t C h i n a c u r r e n t l y p u r s u e s t h a t e mp h a s i z e t h e
restoration of national power and assertiveness would probably be
a d v o c a t e d b y a n y C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t , d e mo c r a t i c , C o mmu n i s t ,
T a i w a n e s e , w h a t e v e r . I t h i n k t h i s i s j u s t s o me t h i n g i n n a t e t o C h i n a
right now.
F r o m C h i n a 's p e r s p e c t i v e , i t s v i e w s o n s o v e r e i g n t y a n d i t s
actions in cyberspace and outer space are reasonable and justified.
The issue for the U.S. is that the action China takes to restore its
s o v e r e i g n t y o r t o p r e s e r v e i t s c u r r e n t g o v e r n me n t c a n w o r k a g a i n s t t h e
United States and increase the likelihood of conflict.
A U . S . s t r a t e g y t h a t t a k e s t h e n e c e s s a r y s t e p s t o ma i n t a i n o u r
mi l i t a r y p o w e r a n d e c o n o mi c c o mp e t i t i v e n e s s w h i l e p e r s u a d i n g C h i n a
t h a t s o v e r e i g n t y a n d a d h e r e n c e t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o r ms a r e n o t
i n c o mp a t i b l e o f f e r s t h e p r o s p e c t o f a c o o p e r a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t i s i n
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both countries' interests.
I h a d mo r e t h a t I w a s g o i n g t o s a y - - t h e T r e a t y o f We s t p h a l i a
b e c a u s e y o u c a n 't t a l k a b o u t s o v e r e i g n t y w i t h o u t s a y i n g T r e a t y o f
We s t p h a l i a - - b u t i n t h e i n t e r e s t o f t i me , I 'l l s t o p n o w .
[ T h e s t a t e me n t f o l l o w s : ]

Thank you for the opportunity to testify. The questions the Commission has posed concerning China’s
views on sovereignty are interesting and difficult. Many Chinese would say that China’s sovereignty was
only restored in 1945, after more than a century of foreign domination. The ruling Communist Party
would of course say that sovereignty was not restored until 1949, when it came to power.

This historical context is important for understanding China’s views on sovereignty. Beginning in the
early 19th century, China was occupied, divided and controlled first by European powers and then by
Japan. This occupation did not end until 1945. The European and Japanese occupations help explain some
of China’s hyper-sensitive reaction to what it terms interference in its internal affairs. China’s thinking is
shaped in part by the belief that China is only reclaiming its rightful position as a great power after decades
of exploitation.

China’s thinking on sovereignty is also shaped by the Cold War. Between 1950 and 1990, China rejected
and vociferously criticized the international order created by the U.S. and its allies at the end of the Second
World War. China still at times describes the U.S. international as hegemonic. Hegemony is another
leftover from Cold-War propaganda. It explains U.S. actions as being taken solely to reinforce America’s
global dominance and includes notions like American empire, hyperpower, and other dubious constructs.
Please note that this conceptual map for explaining U.S. policy is not confined to China - it is part of a
collection of wooly ideas accepted by many in Europe, Latin America and other regions.

One problem for the U.S. is that China’s ‘conceptual map’ for international relations is shaped, and to
some extent distorted by China’s experience of imperialism and the cold war. The result is that China will
take actions that make sense from their perspective but not from anyone else’s. In particular, this different
conceptual map can lead China to misinterpret actions taken by other nations, particularly the United
States.

That the U.S. is neither a hegemon nor an empire does not mean that China, along with other nations, is not
seeking to constrain or reduce U.S. power, however. To the extent that the notion of hegemony influences
Chinese thinking, it means that existing rules and structures for international activities are seen as intended
to benefit the hegemon and for that reason, not entirely legitimate or deserving adherence.

This is a theme that is often heard in negotiations with the Chinese: that China should not be bound by
international conventions created without its participation, input, or consent. This statement often
accompanied by the implied suspicion that these international conventions are also designed to keep China
at a disadvantage. There is at times a powerful sense of grievance among Chinese. The U.S., perhaps
unfairly, is one of the principal targets for these grievances. The combination suggests that it is not so
much that China seeks to expand its own sovereignty or control as much as it is unwilling to recognize or
respect the international norms or sovereignty of others, particularly when these interfere with China’s
pursuit of its own interests.

Norms are expectations or models for behavior. There is an international norm, for example, against
supplying WMD technology to others. Norms are not usually legally binding, but they can be codified in a
regime (like the MTCR) or a treaty (as in the Council or Europe Cybercrime Convention). A normative
approach to international relations would focus on how things should work rather than how they actually
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work. Adherence to international norms limits sovereign power, but behavior by a country that is contrary
to a norm may result in embarrassment or stigmatization. One of the anomalies of the current international
environment is that while the number of norms governing international behavior is increasing, the
influence of these norms appears to be in decline.

All nations engage in the calculus of deciding when self-interest outweighs other considerations, but if
policy decisions range from adherence to norms to pursuit of self-interest, China’s decisions tend to cluster
more on the self-interested end of the scale. China’s poverty and unhappy experiences before 1945 are
sometimes held up as justification for this, along with pointed comparisons with actions the U.S. takes that
appear to run contrary to international norms.

Three specific goals guide thinking and actions on China’s sovereignty: an immediate and continuing goal
of preventing any internal activity that could undermine the Party’s control, a mid-term goal of restoring
sovereign control over Taiwan and a longer term goal of rebalancing or reconstructing the international
‘system’ to give China more weight and influence. Some of these goals, of course, create the potential for
conflict with the United States.

China’s activities in cyberspace and in space are undertaken in support of these goals. It is not clear,
however, that these activities represent a Chinese effort to expand sovereignty into new domains. This is
not because the Chinese government has officially renounced the pursuit of hegemony - it has, and I am
sure the members of the Commission find this to be a comfort - but because China is not fundamentally
expansionist. It does not plan to increase its territory nor does it seek to force other nations to adopt its
model of government. China would like to be the most influential country in Asia, it would like to see U.S.
global influence reduced, and the Party would like to remain unchallenged in its control. These are
political objectives and China’s cyber and space activities are tools to help achieve them.

The primary purpose of China’s space program is political. China’s activities in space are primarily to
affirm or enhance prestige and influence rather than build a continuous military presence. The long-term
goal is to make space an integral part of China’s national power.

China is the most active space power in Asia and has been building its space capabilities since the 1950s.
The most visible return to China has been in prestige. China uses its space program to announce its great
power status and to lay a claim to regional dominance. A White Paper on space put out by the State
Council – the equivalent of the U.S. National Security Council - calls for “eye-catching achievements.”
China’s President Hu Jintao described the success of Shenzhou 5 as "an historic step taken by the Chinese
people in their endeavor to surmount the peak of the world's science and technology."

China’s manned orbital missions are only part of an ambitious program for space exploration. This
includes both human and robotic efforts. China is working on a separate unmanned lunar exploration
program. The lunar program has three phases planned over the next twelve years. Chang’e 1 is now
orbiting the moon. The second phase will land a craft on the moon by 2012. The third phase will return
lunar samples to China by 2020. China hopes that success for Chang’e will help set the stage for a manned
lunar mission. China does not yet have a launcher with sufficient payload for a manned lunar program, but
it has begun an R&D program for the next generation of launch vehicles.

China’s attitude toward sovereignty in space is best seen as an unwillingness to defer to other nations, but
China has been very circumspect in its statements, since it has no desire to begin a race with the United
States or others. Thus, while we can find statements about exploring the moon and exploiting its resources,
there are no stated claims to sovereignty or ownership. There are occasional statements in the official press
about how China’s “gorgeous” red flag will wave over the moon that imply a degree of control, but the
Chinese themselves may not have thought through the issue, if only because this kind of lunar activity is a

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distant eventuality.

To some extent, China’s unwillingness to defer to existing international norms when it comes to action in
space or cyberspace risks sliding into more overt conflict. China’s decision-making process is for foreign
policy and security is weak and disjointed, increasing the likelihood the Beijing could miscalculate the
costs of flouting international norms. We know that the Chinese can miscalculate the risks of activities.
There is also the strong emotional nationalism among China’s populace that Party leaders both exploit and
fear. This emotional nationalism could perhaps lead to public demonstrations that would force Beijing to
choose between military confrontation or a loss of regime authority.

China’s anti-satellite efforts are a good example of the weaknesses in China’s security and foreign policy
decision-making processes. China underestimated the foreign reaction to its test. It seems that in deciding
whether to shoot at a satellite, China’s leaders may have neglected to consult the foreign ministry and thus
were surprised by the outcry over the test and resultant debris cloud. China denied for years that it was
building anti-satellite weapons and urged, as it continues to urge, a treaty banning weapons in space. Its
leaders seem to have underestimated the effect of this test on their international credibility. This
miscalculation reflects a degree of parochialism in Chinese security policy, a lack of experience in
international politics, and a certain degree of hubris born of China’s tremendous economic success.

The motives and decision-making process (to the extent we know it) that lay behind China’s ASAT test
have serious implications for the idea of a treaty with China and others banning weapons in space. There
are many technical reasons why such a treaty would be easy to evade. Verifying compliance with a treaty
would be difficult, if not impossible, if a country wanted to conceal programs. In such cases, countries like
China or Russia, which do not always observe treaty commitments or norms - Russia’s cyber attack on
Estonia is a good example of this lack of regard - make them unreliable partners and treaties an inadequate
guarantee for security in space. There are measures that could allow a space weapons treaty to succeed,
but they would involve transparency and intrusive compliance measures that I do not believe either nation
would accept.

Similarly, alleged Chinese activities in cyberspace demonstrate a similar unwillingness to accept

international norms. This summer, leaders in France, Britain, German, and the United State all
remonstrated with China over its alleged cyber intrusions. If China was responsible, and senior officials in
several nations were willing to attribute the attacks to China, it suggests that China may have
underestimated the risk of being caught or believed that it could disregard any consequences.

China’s interest in cyberspace goes well beyond international relations, however. Cyberspace has domestic
political implications that space does not. China’s primary interest in cyberspace is to prevent it from
becoming a domain where the regime’s control can be challenged. There are other goals, of course,
including taking advantage of information technology to aid economic growth, using cyberspace for
espionage purposes, and preparing for information warfare against potential opponents like the United
States, but the central focus is on securing cyberspace to prevent domestic political challenges.

These efforts go well beyond attempts to block access to foreign websites. China has the most
sophisticated controls of any nation on cyberspace. Its regulations apply existing political restrictions on
speech and information sharing to Internet users, Internet cafes, ISPs and other network service providers.
For example, China’s Internet regulations incorporate key provisions of the 1993 State Security Law that
gives the Ministry of State Security (MSS) the authority to take action against individuals whose conduct
harms the PRC state security. Portions of the State Security law are incorporated without change in
Internet regulations. The most important provisions include prohibitions against subversion or the
overthrow of the socialist system; providing state secrets to an enemy; or engaging in sabotage. The
Ministry has the discretion to decide when an activity falls into one of these prohibited categories, giving it
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a very broad authority.

These political regulations are reinforced by a complementary system of voluntary compliance and self-
regulation among the larger private networks and service providers. China has several government entities
whose mission is Internet security and control, including the Ministries of Culture, Information Industries,
Public Security and State Security. Part of the work of these Ministries is to subsidize research and
development of technologies that would expand control. China has launched an expensive “Golden
Shield” project to build computerized monitoring of domestic communications.

Statements by some Chinese officials suggest that they see China’s sovereignty diminished by a
dependence on foreign technology. In part, this is because this dependence is believed to create a strategic
vulnerability. A 2004 editorial in People’s Daily explained that China needed its own IT industry, as
“Strategists reveal that in peacetime, the U.S. sells virus-carrying chips as ordinary commodities to other
countries. When needed in war-time, the United States can remote control and activate the virus at
anytime, making ineffective or paralyzing the enemy’s command and weaponry systems.” This charge
makes little sense, but it is indicative of the unhappiness felt in China over the lack of indigenous
technology.

Chinese concerns over management of the Domain Name System (DNS), the top-level domain for China,
and the use of Chinese characters, also reflect a concern over the appearance of a diminished sovereignty.
China is one of the nations that object to the management of DNS by ICANM, a private corporation with
some remaining ties to the U.S. government. China has created domain names using Chinese characters
and made them available for use only inside China. In part, Chinese concern over the DNS reflects it
desire to expand control over the internet and information resources, but it also reflects a degree of
nationalism and concern over sovereignty.

This has been only a cursory summary of a complex topic, but one that the Commission has rightly
identified as crucial to the bilateral relationship. China’s views towards sovereignty include the outward-
facing goals of asserting China’s status and increasing its power and influence, and inward-facing goals of
protecting regime authority. It is worth bearing in mind that while some of China’s approach to
sovereignty is specific to maintaining the power of the current Chinese regime, many of the policies China
is pursuing that emphasize the restoration of national power and assertiveness would be advocated by any
Chinese government. .

From China’s perspective, its views on sovereignty and its actions in cyberspace and in space are
reasonable and justified. The issue for the U.S. is that the actions China takes to restore its sovereignty or
to preserve its current government can work against U.S. international influence and may increase the
likelihood of conflict. That said, a U.S. strategy that takes the necessary domestic actions to maintain
military power and economic competitiveness while persuading China that sovereignty and international
norms are not incompatible, offers the prospect of a cooperative relationship that is in both countries’
interest. We should conclude by noting that that U.S. policy has for more than a century supported the
restoration of China’s sovereignty and as China continues to recover from its long twilight under
imperialism and communism, there is no reason why this policy should not continue to hold.

P a n e l V : D i s c u s s i o n , Q u e s t i o n s a n d A n s we r s

HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you, Dr. Lewis. Thank you

b o t h . We h a v e s e v e r a l c o mmi s s i o n e r s w h o h a v e q u e s t i o n s a n d w e 'l l g o
i n t h i s o r d e r : C o mmi s s i o n e r Wo r t z e l , t h e n F i e d l e r , t h e n R e i n s c h , t h e n
Mulloy, then Videnieks.
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 S o w i t h t h a t , C h a i r ma n Wo r t z e l , o v e r t o y o u .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : G e n t l e me n , t h a n k y o u f o r y o u r
s c h o l a r s h i p , y o u r t i me , a n d y o u r t e s t i mo n y . I n 2 0 0 7 , w e me t a s a
C o mmi s s i o n w i t h mi l i t a r y o f f i c e r s o f t h e P e o p l e 's L i b e r a t i o n A r my a t
t h e A c a d e my o f M i l i t a r y S c i e n c e i n B e i j i n g , a n d t h e s e o f f i c e r s
acknowledged that if a nation could attribute the source of a cyber
a t t a c k t o a n o t h e r s t a t e o r i t s mi l i t a r y , i t c o u l d b e a n a c t o f w a r a n d t h e
injured state could respond even with a kinetic attack, not necessarily
with a responding cyber attack.
N o w I 'd b e i n t e r e s t e d i n y o u r p o s i t i o n s o n t h a t i s s u e a n d w h e t h e r
you could discuss for us when cyber penetrations or cyber attacks
mo v e f r o m b e i n g a c t s o f e s p i o n a g e o r t a r g e t i d e n t i f i c a t i o n i n s i d e a
network to acts of war?
D R . L E WI S : I 'l l g o f i r s t . I t 's i n t e r e s t i n g t h a t y o u b r i n g u p t h e s e
i s s u e s b e c a u s e I 'v e b e e n i n v o l v e d , e v e n t h i s mo r n i n g , i n d i s c u s s i o n s
with people from the various National Labs about the question of
deterrence and when is an act of war.
Wh a t I p o i n t e d o u t t o t h e m i s i f y o u - - l e t me g i v e s o me
f l a mb o y a n t e x a mp l e s . Y o u c a n s t e a l a n i n t e l l i g e n c e g a t h e r i n g s h i p ,
i mp r i s o n i t s c r e w , t o r t u r e t h e m, a n d t h a t i s n o t a n a c t o f w a r . Y o u c a n
kidnap the chief of station of a CIA station, take them back to your
n a t i o n 's c a p i t a l a n d t o r t u r e t h e m t o d e a t h , a n d t h a t i s n o t a n a c t o f w a r .
You can detonate a truck filled with explosives in front of a U.S.
mi l i t a r y h o u s i n g c o mp l e x , a n d i n t h e s e c a s e s , w e h a v e p r e t t y g o o d
attribution, and that is not an act of war.
So one of the issues I think for the U.S. response is that the
mi l i t a r y w o u l d l i k e c l e a n l i n e s . T h i s h a p p e n s , i t ' s a g r e e n l i g h t ; t h a t
h a p p e n s , i t ' s a r e d l i g h t . I n f a c t , i t 's a l w a y s g o i n g t o b e a y e l l o w l i g h t ,
a n d i t 's a l w a y s g o i n g t o b e a p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n .
A t t r i b u t i o n i s a k e y p r o b l e m. I f w e h a d b e t t e r a t t r i b u t i o n , I
t h i n k y o u w o u l d s e e t h e n u mb e r o f t h e s e i n c i d e n t s g o i n g d o w n .
D e t e r r e n c e i s a k e y p r o b l e m, a n d h o w y o u a c h i e v e d e t e r r e n c e w h e n y o u
h a v e w e a k a t t r i b u t i o n a n d w h e n y o u d o n 't k n o w t h e c o l l a t e r a l d a ma g e
i s a v e r y d i f f i c u l t q u e s t i o n . T h i s i s n o t C o l d Wa r s t y l e d e t e r r e n c e
b e c a u s e t h e n e t w o r k w e a t t a c k i n r e s p o n s e mi g h t v e r y w e l l b e o u r o w n
network, and there is no way to tell.
The opponent we attack because they appear to be responsible, at
least the way things are configured now, could actually not be the
g u i l t y p a r t y . I t 's r e l a t i v e l y e a s y t o h i d e y o u r a c t i o n s . A l l t h e s e t h i n g s
w o r k a g a i n s t t h a t k i n d o f r e s p o n s e : t h e p o l i t i c a l d i me n s i o n ; t h e
technical difficulties.
I think what we can do is we can change the calculus our
o p p o n e n t s u s e . R i g h t n o w , a n d o n e o f t h e t h i n g s I t h o u g h t t h i s s u mme r
i s i f i t w a s t h e C h i n e s e , a n d w e a l l a s s u me i t w a s t h e C h i n e s e , t h e y
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a p p e a r t o h a v e t h o u g h t t h a t t h e r e w a s a l mo s t n o p e n a l t y f o r e n g a g i n g
in these activities.
H o w c o u l d w e g e t t h e m t o r e t h i n k t h e c o s t o f d o i n g t h i s ? I 'd s a y
t h a t t h e c o mp l a i n t s f r o m t h e o t h e r n a t i o n s w h o a r e o u r N A T O a l l i e s
provides us an opportunity to help the Chinese rethink. Long answer.
Sorry.
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : N o . I t w a s a l o n g q u e s t i o n .
M R . M E E K : I t h i n k i n t h e l e g a l c o mmu n i t y a t l e a s t , a n d I t h i n k
a l s o i n t h e d i p l o ma t i c c o mmu n i t y , w e 'v e s h i e d a w a y f r o m t h e t e r m " a c t
o f w a r " f o r a v e r y s p e c i f i c r e a s o n , a n d t h a t i s w h e n y o u u s e t h e t e r m,
i t a l mo s t l o c k s y o u i n t o a v e r y s ma l l r e s p o n s e s e t . T h e o n e t h i n g t h a t
w e t h i n k t h e g o v e r n me n t w o u l d w a n t t o d o , a n d p a r t i c u l a r l y i n a c y b e r
arena, is, as Dr. Lewis says, to ensure correct attribution because of
how easy it is to hide yourself in cyberspace. So the last thing you
probably want is a quick reaction where you think the target is in
c y b e r s p a c e , b e c a u s e i t ma y n o t b e t h e t a r g e t a n d y o u ma y b e
s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o mp o u n d i n g y o u r i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r o b l e m w i t h a q u i c k
response.
T h a t ' s v e r y f r u s t r a t i n g t o mi l i t a r y c o mma n d e r s ma n y t i me s
because they would like to act quickly because they want to cut losses.
B u t t h a t ma y n o t b e p o s s i b l e . A g o o d e x a mp l e o f t h a t mi g h t b e t h e
Estonia case that happened recently, and also attacks in the U.S., I
b e l i e v e i t 's b e e n e s t a b l i s h e d , i f I 'm c o r r e c t , e v e n t h o s e a t t a c k s , ma n y
o f t h e m t h a t w e r e t h o u g h t t o c o me f r o m C h i n a a c t u a l l y o r i g i n a t e d f r o m
t h e U . S . a n d s o me o t h e r p l a c e s .
I t 's v e r y e a s y t o j u mp t o a q u i c k c o n c l u s i o n w h e n y o u a r e i n a
p e r i o d o f h e i g h t e n e d t e n s i o n s i n t h e w o r l d ; t h a t 's a g o o d t i me f o r a
s p o i l e r t o c o me i n a n d c o mmi t a n a c t i o n t h a t y o u w o u l d r e s p o n d t o
q u i c k l y t h i n k i n g i t w a s " C o u n t r y A " a n d i t 's r e a l l y s o me b o d y e l s e w i t h
a different agenda.
S o t h e c y b e r w o r l d h a s s o me v e r y mu c h mo r e d i f f i c u l t p r o b l e ms
t h a n p o s e d i n y o u r n o r ma l l a w o f a r me d c o n f l i c t a n a l y s i s .
Also, the cyber world presents another different problem and a
d i f f i c u l t p r o b l e m. I t d o e s n 't f o l l o w y o u r n o r ma l p a r a d i g m o f w a r f a r e
o r t h e l a w o f a r me d c o n f l i c t s c e n a r i o b e c a u s e y o u 'r e n o t g o i n g t o h a v e
the CNN effect of blood and guts and people dead and wounded.
Y o u 'r e g o i n g t o h a v e t h i n g s h a p p e n i n g t o ma c h i n e s , o r y o u 'r e g o i n g t o
h a v e t h i n g s h a p p e n i n g t o t h e s t o c k ma r k e t o r ma y b e t h i n g s h a p p e n i n g
to a GPS and other satellite services.
Y o u 'r e t a l k i n g a b o u t a l o t o f i n a n i ma t e o b j e c t s t h a t a r e b e i n g
a f f e c t e d . T h a t d o e s n 't n e c e s s a r i l y t u r n p e o p l e o n , a n d s o w h e n y o u
t a l k a b o u t - - t h e r e f e r e n c e w a s h e r e w h e n d o y o u g o k i n e t i c ? We l l , i t 's
g o i n g t o p r o b a b l y t a k e a v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t a d v e r s e i mp a c t a n d w i t h a
very sure attribution to result in a kinetic attack on who you think is
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the perpetrator.
So there are a lot of things in that equation that are, from an
a n a l y t i c a l s t a n d p o i n t , mu c h mo r e t i me c o n s u mi n g t h a t y o u ma y
n o r ma l l y h a v e i n a n a r me d c o n f l i c t s c e n a r i o .
As far as when you know when you transfer from say espionage
o r c o mp u t e r n e t w o r k e x p l o i t a t i o n o r w h a t e v e r t e r ms t o c o n f l i c t , I d o n 't
know that there is necessarily a black and white line. Once again,
people like black and white lines. That is not the nature of cyber
w a r f a r e . I t 's j u s t s i mp l y n o t . A n d s o w h a t y o u e n d u p d o i n g i s h a v i n g
t o l o o k a t a w i d e r a n g e o f i n f o r ma t i o n .
Y o u h a v e t o r e l y o n y o u r i n t e l l i g e n c e c o mmu n i t y , y o u r l a w
e n f o r c e me n t c o mmu n i t y . I t 's a b r o a d - b a s e d g o v e r n me n t h o me s e c u r i t y
e f f o r t , a n d t h a t i s o n e a r e a , i n my mi n d , w h e r e w e c o u l d b e n e f i t f r o m,
a n d w e a r e w o r k i n g o n i t n o w . We co u l d b e n e f i t f r o m mo r e i n t e g r a t i o n
o f a c t i v i t i e s , c o o p e r a t i o n , b e c a u s e t i me i s o f t h e e s s e n c e b e c a u s e t h e
l o n g e r y o u g o , t h e mo r e d i f f i c u l t , t h e mo r e d a ma g e y o u ma y b e
sustaining.
Thank you.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Okay. Thank you, Mr. Meek and
D r . L e w i s . C o mmi s s i o n e r F i e d l e r .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : I 'd l i k e t o f o l l o w u p o n t h i s
d i s c u s s i o n . T h e n i f I h a v e t i me I 'l l a s k my s e c o n d q u e s t i o n . Wh e t h e r
unfair or fair, your answers seem to avoid his question. So you said
essentially that it was difficult to attribute and we’ve got to be careful
a b o u t w h a t t h e s i z e i s , a n d y o u g a v e t h e f l a mb o y a n t e x a mp l e s o f a c t s
of war.
B y t h e w a y , I c o u l d g i v e ma n y e x a mp l e s o f a c t s o f w a r t h a t w e
h a v e n o t r e s p o n d e d t o i mme d i a t e l y . S o t h e i mp l i c a t i o n t h a t a n a c t o f
w a r r e q u i r e s a n i mme d i a t e r e s p o n s e I d o n 't t h i n k i s g e n e r a l l y
acceptable.
T h e p o w e r g r i d w e n t o u t i n s o me f a s h i o n y e s t e r d a y i n F l o r i d a ,
n o t b e c a u s e o f a n y c y b e r w a r f a r e t h e r e , b u t t h a t I s u s p e c t c a u s e d s o me
"blood" on CNN, if you will, in the way of traffic accidents and a few
other things. So if the power grid went out covering 60 percent of the
population of the United States due to a cyber attack--forget that we
c a n f i g u r e o u t w h o d i d i t y e t - - i s t h a t a n a c t o f w a r , w h e t h e r i t 's a
t e r r o r i s t o n a s i n g l e c o mp u t e r o r 5 , 0 0 0 p e o p l e w o r k i n g i n c o n c e r t i n
Shanghai?
MR. MEEK: I think you hit one very good point right there and
i t 's w h e n y o u me n t i o n e d t h e i n d i v i d u a l . A c t s o f w a r a r e g e n e r a l l y
attributed to nation states, not to individuals.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Yes, but we're in an alleged
w a r n o w , a n d a c t u a l l y I 'l l r e mo v e t h e w o r d " a l l e g e d . " We 'r e i n a n e w
f o r m- - I me a n y o u s a i d t h e p a r a d i g m w a s d i f f e r e n t . Y e s , o k a y , t h e
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p a r a d i g m i s d i f f e r e n t . We a l l u n d e r s t a n d t h a t t h e p a r a d i g m i s d i f f e r e n t
s i n c e 9 / 1 1 a mo n g o t h e r t h i n g s .
S o i t 's s t i l l a n a c t o f w a r , b u t l e t ' s t a k e t h e i n d i v i d u a l o u t o f i t
and say it was the state. Is that an act of war? 60 percent of our
population.
D R . L E WI S : Y o u h a v e a d i l e mma . O n e w a y t o t h i n k a b o u t t h i s
is, okay, so this happens, and you go to the President or the Secretary
o f D e f e n s e a n d y o u s a y w e 'd l i k e t o r e s p o n d u s i n g mi l i t a r y f o r c e b u t
w e a r e n 't s u r e a b o u t t h e t a r g e t , a n d w e d o n 't k n o w i f w e 'l l b e h i t t i n g
our own stuff.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: No, wait, wait, wait, wait.
D R . L E WI S : Y o u 'd b e t h r o w n o u t o f t h e o f f i c e .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : N o , n o . I d i d n 't s a y I w a s
w a l k i n g - - f i r s t , I 'm t r y i n g t o d e t e r mi n e w h o d i d i t a n d w h a t t h e i r
i n t e n t i o n w a s . I 'm n o t t a l k i n g a b o u t w a l k i n g i n a n d s a y i n g , p l e a s e , s i r ,
c o u l d w e p u l l t h e t r i g g e r a g a i n s t s o me b o d y t h a t w e d o n 't k n o w .
O k a y . L e t 's t a k e t h e a c t o f w a r o u t o f i t . I s i t a n a c t o f
aggression against the United States to take down 60 percent of our
electrical grid? Yes; right. So your answer before was not an
i mp r o p e r a n s w e r ; I j u s t s a i d i t a v o i d e d i t . Y o u a r e w o r r i e d a b o u t
attributing it. I'm worried about attributing it, too, but it's still a
serious act.
M R . M E E K : Wh a t h a s h a p p e n e d i n t h e p a s t i s w h e r e w e h a v e ,
based on our intelligence, based on tracebacks, based on the
d e t e r mi n a t i o n , w e h a v e f o u n d t h e l o c a t i o n o f p e r p e t r a t o r s , l e t 's s a y
individuals.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : A n d w e 'v e b e e n w r o n g .
M R . M E E K : A n d w e 'v e b e e n r i g h t .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Yes.
MR. MEEK: A n d w h a t w e 'v e d o n e i s w e g o t o t h e h o s t
g o v e r n me n t a n d w e s a y w e 'v e t r a c k e d i t t o t h i s p o i n t a n d y o u s h o u l d
t a k e s o me c r i mi n a l , c r i mi n a l a c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e s e i n d i v i d u a l s . N o w ,
i t ' s b e e n r e l a t i v e l y s ma l l s c a l e .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Yes.
M R . M E E K : We h a v e n 't h a d s o me t h i n g l a r g e . Wh e n y o u mo v e
i n t o a h u g e s c a l e e f f e c t , s u r e , i t r a i s e s u p t h e a n t e , b u t t h a t 's p a r t o f
t h e d i s c e r n i n g p r o c e s s t h a t y o u h a v e t o d e t e r mi n e . I d o n ' t t h i n k t h a t
y o u w o u l d w a n t , e v e n a s s u mi n g a 6 0 p e r c e n t l o s s , y o u 'v e g o t t o k n o w
t h a t y o u ' v e g o t t h e r i g h t t a r g e t t h a t y o u 'r e g o i n g t o s t r i k e a n d , y e s ,
p e r h a p s i n P h i l M e e k 's o p i n i o n , y o u c o u l d g o i n w i t h a k i n e t i c a t t a c k ,
c e r t a i n l y w i t h a 6 0 p e r c e n t l o a d d o w n , i f t h a t 's w h e r e y o u t h i n k y o u r
best alternative is. But you better be right.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: I t h i n k i t 's u n d e r s t o o d b y
everyone that we always ought to be right. A quick question, and it's a
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legal question. Do the Chinese run reconnaissance satellites over the
U n i t e d S t a t e s ? I mu s t b e g i g n o r a n c e . I p r e s u me t h e y d o .
MR. MEEK: Yes, sir.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : O k a y . S o i f t h e y ma i n t a i n ,
t h e o r e t i c i a n s ma i n t a i n t h a t t h e r e i s n o , I me a n t h e y o w n t h e s p a c e
a b o v e t h e i r c o u n t r y , b u t y e t t h e y v i o l a t e i t i n t e r ms o f r u n n i n g
reconnaissance, does that neutralize their legal basis for arguing?
M R . M E E K : N o , n o . T h e p r e s u mp t i o n t h e r e w o u l d b e t h a t t h e y
would have to apply it reciprocally.
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Right.
MR. MEEK: And a lot of countries do not apply it reciprocally.
F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e y ma y t a k e t h e p o s i t i o n t h a t t h e U . S . c o u l d h a v e a
s i mi l a r b a s i s t o e n g a g e t h e s a t e l l i t e , b u t t h e y 'r e n o t s a y i n g a n y t h i n g .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Right. Okay. Thank you very
mu c h .
MR. MEEK: That's one of the difficulties with their own
p o s i t i o n . A n d t h a t 's p o i n t e d o u t b y a l o t o f t h e i r o w n p e r s o n n e l . T h e y
see the benefits and they see the disadvantages.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : T h a t 's r i g h t . Y e s , t h a t w a s my
point actually in asking the question.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you. C o mmi s s i o n e r
Reinsch.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Thank you. I have to say this, the
a c t o f w a r q u e s t i o n l e a v e s me a b i t c o l d f o r t h e r e a s o n s D r . L e w i s
c i t e d . I f y o u c a n 't a t t r i b u t e i t , I d o n 't k n o w t h a t i t ma t t e r s mu c h w h a t
y o u c a l l i t . Y o u c a n 't d o a n y t h i n g a b o u t i t u n l e s s y o u k n o w w h a t y o u r
target is, which is why I want to change the subject.
D r . L e w i s , y o u me n t i o n e d i n y o u r t e s t i mo n y , a n d I 'm i n c l i n e d t o
a g r e e w i t h y o u , t h a t i n t h e c y b e r s e c u r i t y a r e a t h e C h i n e s e p r i ma r y
o b j e c t i v e i s d o me s t i c c o n t r o l , a n d I t h i n k t h a t 's r i g h t .
L o o k i n g a t t h a t f o r a mi n u t e a n d l o o k i n g a t t h o s e e f f o r t s , w h o 's
winning? Are they succeeding?
D R . L E WI S : I t h i n k r i g h t n o w t h e b a l a n c e o f t e c h n i c a l o p i n i o n
w o u l d b e t h a t t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t i s s u c c e e d i n g , r i g h t , a n d w h y
t h a t i s ma y r e l y mo r e o n t e c h n i c a l me a s u r e s , b u t i f y o u l o o k a t w h a t
C h i n e s e I n t e r n e t u s e r s t r y a n d a c c e s s , i t 's ma i n l y e n t e r t a i n me n t a n d
sports sites. T h e y a r e n 't q u e s t i n g f o r p o l i t i c a l i n f o r ma t i o n . So
w h e t h e r t h a t 's a s u c c e s s f u l t a c t i c o r n o t , I d o n 't k n o w .
But the general theory is, is that if there was one country that
h a d t h e t e c h n i c a l s k i l l s a n d t h e mo n e y t o ma i n t a i n c o n t r o l o v e r t h e
Internet in a way that would allow it to reduce any political challenge,
it would be China.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Given the creativity, if you will,
o f t h e c y b e r c o mmu n i t y , b o t h t h e r e a n d e v e r y w h e r e e l s e , d o y o u t h i n k
- 113 -
t h e y 'r e g o i n g t o b e a b l e t o c o n t i n u e t o p r e v a i l , t h e g o v e r n me n t ?
D R . L E WI S : I f t h e i r s t r a t e g y o n l y r e l i e d o n t e c h n i c a l a c c e s s t o
t h e I n t e r n e t , n o , i t w o u l d b e e a s y t o c i r c u mv e n t . B u t i f i t 's p a r t o f a
larger strategy that involves propaganda, that involves shaping popular
attitudes, that gets people not to want to go to these sites to begin
with, then, yes, I think they can continue to succeed.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: That's helpful. I think we had
t e s t i mo n y o n t h a t l a s t y e a r . T h a n k y o u f o r t h a t . L e t me t h e n c h a n g e
t h e s u b j e c t a g a i n , i f I ma y , a n d I r e a l i z e t h i s w a s n ' t y o u r p r o j e c t - - I ' m
t a l k i n g t o D r . L e w i s a g a i n - - s o r r y - - I r e a l i z e t h i s w a s n 't y o u r p r o j e c t a t
CSIS.
D R . L E WI S : T h i s i s w h a t I g e t f o r w o r k i n g f o r h i m.
C O M M I S S I O N E R R E I N S C H : Y o u c a n 't e s c a p e n o ma t t e r w h a t
y o u d o , n o ma t t e r w h e r e y o u g o . D r . L e w i s i s a f o r me r e mp l o y e e o f
mi n e a t t h e C o mme r c e D e p a r t me n t I g u e s s w o u l d b e t h e b e s t w a y t o p u t
i t . H e h a d g o t o u t b e f o r e I d i d s o h e w a s a b l e t o e s c a p e , b u t h e s e e ms
t o c o me b a c k i n t o o r b i t p e r i o d i c a l l y .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : We 'r e g o i n g t o h a v e t o d e d u c t a
mi n u t e f r o m y o u r t i me .
D R . L E WI S : H e y , d e d u c t t w o .
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: This is the last question although
that depends on the answer. I realize this is not your project at CSIS--
but would you say a few words, if you can, about the report they
released I believe last week on satellite exports and satellite export
c o n t r o l s a n d w h a t c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t C S I S c a me t o ?
D R . L E WI S : F i r s t l e t me n o t e t h a t a l t h o u g h t h i s r e p o r t w a s
i s s u e d u n d e r t h e s p o n s o r s h i p o f C S I S , i t w a s a c t u a l l y c o mmi s s i o n e d b y
the Defense Science Board.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Even better.
D R . L E WI S : Y e s , a n d b e c a u s e o f a s e r i e s o f i n t e r n a l i s s u e s t h a t
I 'm n o t e n t i r e l y f a mi l i a r w i t h , t h e D e f e n s e D e p a r t me n t a s k e d C S I S t o
sponsor the report, but the work was done by the group set up by the
Defense Science Board, and it continued to have support from DOD.
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Can you say a few words about its
conclusions?
D R . L E WI S : S u r e . I t r i e d t o d o d g e . T h e c o n c l u s i o n s w e r e n o t
s t a r t l i n g i n t h a t t h e y s a i d p r e t t y mu c h w h a t ma n y r e p o r t s h a v e s a i d i n
the past, and that is that the controls we have in place now in
c o mme r c i a l c o mmu n i c a t i o n s a t e l l i t e s d a ma g e U . S . i n d u s t r y .
I f I r e me mb e r c o r r e c t l y , t h e r e p o r t s e t a f i g u r e o f I t h i n k
s o me w h e r e b e t w e e n 6 0 0 a n d $ 7 0 0 mi l l i o n a y e a r i n c o s t s t o t h e
i n d u s t r y . T h e c o s t s d o n o t f a l l o n t h e p r i me s . I t ' s mo r e o n t h e
subcontractors and the third-tier contractors who are suffering as a
result.
- 114 -
 S o t h e y t h e n h a d a s e r i e s o f r e c o mme n d a t i o n s t h a t b a s i c a l l y
s o u g h t t o ma k e i t a l i t t l e e a s i e r f o r U . S . c o mp a n i e s t o c o mp e t e i n t h e
i n t e r n a t i o n a l ma r k e t .
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: Thank you.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Any further questions?
COMMISSIONER REINSCH: No.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : O k a y . T h a n k y o u . We 'l l n o w t u r n
t o C o mmi s s i o n e r M u l l o y .
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : T h a n k y o u , M r . C h a i r ma n . I w a n t
t o t h a n k b o t h o f y o u . Y o u r t e s t i mo n y i s t e r r i f i c , b o t h y o u r w r i t t e n a n d
oral.
I have the first question for Mr. Meek. Is China a party to the
Outer Space Treaty of 1967?
MR. MEEK: Yes, sir.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: I s t h e r e a d i s p u t e s e t t l e me n t
provision in that treaty?
M R . M E E K : N o , s i r . T h e r e a r e n o p r o v i s i o n s l i k e t h a t . I t 's
b a s i c a l l y s t a t e me n t s o f p r i n c i p l e s .
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: So if we wanted to get an opinion
o n w h o 's r i g h t , w e 'd h a v e t o a g r e e a n d r e f e r i t t o s o me b o d y l i k e t h e
ICJ?
MR. MEEK: You could.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Yes. Okay. Do you--
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : H e s a y s s mi l i n g .
M R . M E E K : I 'd n e v e r d o i t .
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : Wh a t ?
M R . M E E K : I 'd n e v e r d o i t .
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : Y o u w o u l d n 't d o i t ; w h y ?
M R . M E E K : Wh y ? I t h i n k t h a t , a s w a s me n t i o n e d b e f o r e i n a
prior panel, nations, particularly the U.S. in this case, would not want
to delegate basically a sovereign decision authority to a group of
j u d g e s l i k e t h a t . We 'r e t a l k i n g a b o u t o u r s o v e r e i g n i n t e r e s t s , a n d
particularly in space and particularly for the U.S. which enjoys an
a s y mme t r i c a d v a n t a g e i n s p a c e . S o t h a t w o u l d b e n o t o n my h i g h l i s t
of priorities to refer it to any kind of a tribunal.
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : We h a v e t h e s t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e
n o w . Y o u c o u l d p r o j e c t i n t h e f u t u r e t h e w a y t h i n g s a r e g o i n g ma y b e
w e w o n 't h a v e t h a t s t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e b e c a u s e s o me b o d y i s c o mi n g o n
a w f u l l y f a s t ; a r e n 't t h e y ?
MR. MEEK: Yes, they are.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Yes. You talk about the EEZ
c l a i m a s w e l l i n y o u r t e s t i mo n y . I p r e s u me y o u d o n 't f a v o r , e v e n
t h o u g h t h a t h a s r e s u l t e d i n a c o n f l i c t o f s o me s o r t b e t w e e n u s a n d t h e
C h i n e s e w h e n t h e y k n o c k e d d o w n t h a t E P - 3 p l a n e , y o u w o u l d n 't f a v o r
- 115 -
t r y i n g t o g e t t h a t s e t t l e d b y s o me k i n d o f d i s p u t e s e t t l e me n t e i t h e r ?
M R . M E E K : P h i l M e e k w o u l d n o t f o r ma n y o f t h e s a me r e a s o n s .
T h e U . S . i s t a k i n g a c t i o n s t o p r o t e s t t h e C h i n e s e a c t i v i t y , t o ma k e
f o r ma l d i p l o ma t i c r e c o r d s a s a ma t t e r o f p r o t e s t , w h i c h i n my v i e w i s
the best way to handle that right now.
We w o u l d n o t w a n t t o d o a n y t h i n g - - C h i n a i s j u s t o n e p l a c e i n t h e
w o r l d w h e r e w e h a v e ma n y c l a i ms , a n d w e w o u l d n o t w a n t , f o r
i n s t a n c e , t h e r i s k o f a n a d v e r s e d e c i s i o n t h e r e t h a t w o u l d c o mp r o mi s e
o u r a b i l i t y t o c o n d u c t s i mi l a r - - c h a l l e n g e o p e r a t i o n s a n d f r e e d o m i n
o t h e r E E Z s a r o u n d t h e w o r l d w h e r e ma y b e w e d o n ' t h a v e a n y p r o b l e ms .
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : L e t me a s k y o u t h i s . D o y o u k n o w
whether we continue such activities in the Chinese EEZ?
MR. MEEK: Yes, sir, we do.
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : We d o . O k a y . T h a n k y o u . N o w ,
M r . L e w i s , o n p a g e s i x o f y o u r t e s t i mo n y , y o u t a l k e d a b o u t t h e s e
v i r u s e s a n d i n f o r ma t i o n t e c h n o l o g y . A r e t h e s e t h e c h i p s t h a t y o u 'r e
referring to?
D R . L E WI S : T h a t w a s a q u o t a t i o n f r o m a C h i n e s e n e w s p a p e r ,
and they were referring to chips in particular.
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : S e mi c o n d u c t o r s ?
D R . L E WI S : Y e s .
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Okay. You say that they felt
u n h a p p y t h a t t h e y w e r e d e p e n d e n t u p o n c h i p s ma n u f a c t u r e d i n t h e
United States because you could put viruses in them that you could
activate.
M y u n d e r s t a n d i n g i s t h a t t h a t i n d u s t r y i s n o w mo v i n g a n d h a s
mo v e d v i r t u a l l y o u t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , f i r s t t o T a i w a n a n d n o w i n t o
C h i n a . I n f a c t , I n t e l , d i d n 't I n t e l p u t a $ 1 . 5 b i l l i o n p l a n t i n D a l i a n ,
China last year and there were about a billion dollars of Chinese
s u b s i d i e s t o e n t i c e I n t e l t o d o t h a t ? T h a t 's my u n d e r s t a n d i n g .
Are we now getting into the situation that the Chinese did not
w a n t t o b e i n t o , t h a t w e 'r e n o w d e p e n d e n t u p o n t h e m f o r t h e s e c h i p s
t h a t t h e y c a n p u t v i r u s e s i n t h a t c o u l d b e v e r y d e t r i me n t a l t o o u r
national security interests?
D R . L E WI S : T h a t 's a v e r y g o o d q u e s t i o n , a n d t h e D e f e n s e
Science Board has put out two reports, one, two or three years ago, on
h a r d w a r e ; o n e , l a t e l a s t y e a r , o n s o f t w a r e . T h e y b o t h c a me t o s i mi l a r
conclusions. The problem is, though, for China, for the U.S., for
F r a n c e , f o r w h o e v e r y o u l i k e , a l l o f t h e s e I T p r o d u c t s c o me o u t o f a
global supply chain; right.
S o w h e n y o u l o o k a t a c o mp u t e r , t h e C P U , t h e b r a i n c o me s f r o m
t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ; t h e me mo r y p r o b a b l y c o me s f r o m a n A s i a n c o u n t r y ,
S i n g a p o r e o r K o r e a , T a i w a n . T h e s o f t w a r e c o me s l a r g e l y f r o m t h e
U . S . , b u t ma y b e a l s o f r o m I n d i a , ma y b e f r o m E u r o p e . A n d t h e n t h e r e
- 116 -
a r e p a r t s t h a t a r e a s s e mb l e d i n C h i n a .
I f y o u s t a r t t r y i n g t o g o d o w n t h e p a t h o f I w i l l ma k e my s e l f
mo r e s e c u r e b y o n l y b u y i n g my o w n s t u f f , n o c o u n t r y c a n d o t h a t
a n y mo r e . S o w e a l l s h a r e t h i s p r o b l e m, a n d w e h a v e t o t h i n k o f a w a y
t o d e a l w i t h i t , b u t , y e s , w e h a v e a p r o b l e m. T h e C h i n e s e h a v e a
s i mi l a r p r o b l e m.
One of the things I think is funny about that article is the day
before I read it, I was out at a defense facility talking about the issue,
how does the U.S. deal with foreign input to our critical infrastructure,
a n d t h e n I c o me b a c k t h e n e x t d a y , a n d h e r e 's t h e C h i n e s e w o r r y i n g
a b o u t e x a c t l y t h e s a me t h i n g . I t 's a c o mmo n p r o b l e m.
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Did the Defense Science Board
r a i s e i t a s a r e a l p r o b l e m?
D R . L E WI S : O h , y e s , y e s , i n d e e d .
C O M M I S S I O N E R M U L L O Y : A n d t h e y 'r e v e r y c o n c e r n e d a b o u t
it?
D R . L E WI S : T h e y 'r e c o n c e r n e d t h a t t h e mi c r o e l e c t r o n i c s b a s e i s
mo v i n g o u t s i d e t h e U . S . a n d t h a t h a s b o t h s e c u r i t y a n d t r u s t
i mp l i c a t i o n s , w h i c h w a s w h a t I w a s t a l k i n g a b o u t , a n d a l s o d e f e n s e
i n d u s t r i a l b a s e i mp l i c a t i o n s .
COMMISSIONER MULLOY: Thank you.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you. C o mmi s s i o n e r
Videnieks.
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Thanks. Good afternoon,
g e n t l e me n . We l c o me h e r e . A b r i e f q u e s t i o n , k i n d o f r e q u e s t . I
understand, Dr. Lewis, that you and Dr. Kulacky are preparing a report
t o b e g i v e n t o w h o e v e r t h e n e x t a d mi n i s t r a t i o n i s .
D R . L E WI S : O h .
C O M M I S S I O N E R V I D E N I E K S : Wi l l i t b e a p u b l i c d o c u me n t
a n d i s t h e r e s o me w a y w e c a n g e t a s y n o p s i s a l i t t l e b i t e a r l i e r ?
D R . L E WI S : S u r e .
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: That's just the first part of the
question.
DR. L E WI S : CSIS has a c o mmi s s i o n developing
r e c o mme n d a t i o n s o n c y b e r s e c u r i t y . We 'v e j u s t s t a r t e d w o r k . I c a n
g i v e y o u , i f y o u w a n t , I t h i n k , a d o c u me n t w e 'v e d o n e o n t h r e a t s . B u t
w e d o n 't h a v e a n y r e c o mme n d a t i o n s r i g h t n o w b e c a u s e w e s t a r t e d w o r k
on February 8.
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Okay.
D R . L E WI S : S o , s u r e .
C O M M I S S I O N E R V I D E N I E K S : We w o u l d l i k e a t s o me p o i n t
w h e n i t b e c o me s me a n i n g f u l , w e w o u l d l i k e t o g e t a n a d v a n c e d c o p y o f
it.
T h e s e c o n d t h i n g i s - - a n d ma y b e y o u 'r e n o t i n a p o s i t i o n t o g i v e
- 117 -
s p e c i f i c c o mme n t s a t t h i s p o i n t - - I a l s o u n d e r s t a n d t h a t i n f o r ma l l y t h a t
t h e r e i s s o me c o n c e r n a b o u t t h e q u a l i t y o f s o u r c e s u s e d b y t h e
g o v e r n me n t w h e n t h e y t a l k a b o u t C h i na , o r i g i n a l i t y , t h a t k i n d o f t h i n g -
- i f y o u h a d a c h a n c e t o l o o k a t t h e '0 6 r e p o r t .
I w o u l d a p p r e c i a t e s p e c i f i c s t a t e me n t s t o t h e s o u r c e s t h a t ma y
b e , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e s p a c e a r e a , t h a t mi g h t n o t b e u p t o t h e b e s t
standards.
D R . L E WI S : D o y o u w a n t t o t o u c h t h a t o n e o r d o y o u w a n t t o
skip it?
M R . M E E K : A s I me n t i o n e d , w e c o u l d p r o b a b l y d o t h a t a t a
certain level, but there are an awful lot of writings out there. As I
me n t i o n e d , f i r s t , w h a t w e h a v e t o r e l y o n i s s i mp l y t h e i d e n t i t y o f t h e
i n d i v i d u a l s a n d w h a t l e v e l s t h e y 'r e a t .
F o r i n s t a n c e , w h e n I r e a d a n a r t i c l e b y a c a p t a i n , y o u k n o w , I 'm
wondering, and it's really a very aggressive type article, I'm wondering
i f t h a t i s n 't f i s h i n g b a i t t h r o w n o u t t o s e e h o w p e o p l e a r e g o i n g t o
r e a c t . I 'm s u r e t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n me n t h a s c l e a r e d i t b e f o r e t h e y w e n t
o u t , b u t i f t h i s i s a n i n d i v i d u a l l o w i n t h e p e c k i n g o r d e r , w h a t 's t h e
purpose for putting it out?
I s h e h i g h i n t h e p e c k i n g o r d e r ? S o a l o t o f i t i s s u b j e c t i v e . We
c o u l d p r o b a b l y g e t y o u s o me t h i n g o n t h a t , b u t t h e r e a r e s o ma n y
a u t h o r s . I n f a c t , D r . Wo r t z e l h a s h a d ma n y a r t i c l e s . I j u s t l o o k a t a l l
t h e n a me s a n d t h e f o o t n o t e s a n d t h e r e a r e h u n d r e d s o f n a me s . T h e
n a me d o e s n 't me a n a n y t h i n g t o me , b u t I k n o w w h a t t h e t r a n s l a t i o n o f
t h e t e x t i s . S o t h a t c o u l d b e v e r y d i f f i c u l t , b u t w e mi g h t b e a b l e t o d o
it.
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: I t h i n k , i n s o me c a s e s I
u n d e r s t a n d t h a t t h e g o v e r n me n t i s u s i n g g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s w h o d o n 't
use original sources and that kind of stuff. I would, in the space area,
o k a y , I f o r o n e w o u l d l i k e t o h a v e s o me c o mme n t s .
D R . L E WI S : I n o u r g o v e r n me n t o r t h e i r g o v e r n me n t ?
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Our.
D R . L E WI S : O h .
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: The other question is recently
t h e r e w a s a Wa l l S t r e e t J o u r n a l a r t i c l e s a y i n g t h e r e a r e n o w e a p o n s i n
s p a c e . I t 's a my t h , t h a t a l l t h e w e a p o n s a r e l a n d - b a s e d w i t h t h e
c a p a b i l i t y o f s h o o t i n g d o w n s a t e l l i t e s . P l e a s e , ma y b e b o t h o f y o u
c o u l d c o mme n t o n t h a t .
D R . L E WI S : We d o n 't k n o w o f a n y w e a p o n s i n s p a c e . T h e r e
w e r e s o me t e s t p r o g r a ms t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n c a r r i e d o u t i n t h e 1 9 7 0 s
a n d '8 0 s , a n d s i n c e t h e n I d o n 't b e l i e v e a n y o n e h a s d e p l o y e d a w e a p o n .
T h e p r o b l e m i s , i s t h a t t h e t h i n g s y o u c a n d o d o n 't r e q u i r e - - t h e r e
a r e s o ma n y w a y s t o a t t a c k a s a t e l l i t e t h a t h a v i n g a w e a p o n i n s p a c e i s
j u s t o n e o f t h e m, a n d s o i t d o e s n 't r e a l l y - - n o t h a v i n g w e a p o n s i n s p a c e
- 118 -
d o e s n 't r e a l l y ma k e y o u a n y b e t t e r o f f .
COMMISSIONER VIDENIEKS: Thank you.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: T h a n k y o u . C o mmi s s i o n e r
B a r t h o l o me w .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: G e n t l e me n , t h a n k y o u
b o t h v e r y mu c h f o r r e a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g t e s t i mo n y . M r . M e e k , i f I c a n
a s k y o u t o s u b mi t f o r t h e r e c o r d t h e e i g h t c o u n t r i e s o f t h e B o g o t a
Declaration--
M R . M E E K : Y e s , ma 'a m. I t i s i n t h e s t a t e me n t , b u t I w i l l b e
glad to give them to you as soon as I find it here.
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : I t ' s i n t h e mi d d l e . I t ' s d e e p i n t h e
mi d d l e .
MR. MEEK: B r a z i l , C o l o mb i a , C o n g o , E c u a d o r , I n d o n e s i a ,
Kenya, Uganda and Zaire.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: It always interesting
b e c a u s e a s C h i n a c o n d u c t s i t s o w n d i p l o ma c y a r o u n d t h e w o r l d , a n d i t
l o o k s f o r t h i n g s t h a t i t mi g h t b e t ry i n g t o d o t o s u p p o r t c e r t a i n n a t i o n s ,
I w i l l a d d i t t o my me n t a l l i s t o f t h e y a l l o f a s u d d e n g o t s o me
a g r e e me n t g o i n g w i t h U g a n d a w h e r e t h e y 'v e d e c i d e d t o s u p p o r t t h e
Bogota Declaration.
MR. MEEK: Actually I would look broader than these countries
right here. I would look to all the other countries on the equator and
s t a r t l o o k i n g a t w h e r e C h i n e s e e i t h e r f o r e i g n i n v e s t me n t o r a i d i s
g o i n g , ma y b e a s a n i n d i c a t i o n o f s o l i c i t i n g a f a v o r a n d d e p e n d e n c e o n
China.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: Or if any of those
c o u n t r i e s r e c o g n i z e T a i w a n , w e mi g h t s e e t h i n g s c h a n g e , t o o . T h a n k
y o u . I t 's i n t r i g u i n g , t h o u g h n o t t h e ma i n s o u r c e o f my q u e s t i o n .
M r . D u t t o n h a s b r i e f l y l e f t t h e r o o m, b u t I w a n t e d t o g o b a c k t o
t h i s c o n c e p t o f l e g a l w a r f a r e o r l aw f a r e , a s y o u 'r e t a l k i n g a b o u t i t .
M r . D u t t o n q u o t e d R e n mi n H a i j u n s a y i n g t h a t " l e g a l w a r r i o r s h a v e t o
be farsighted, engage in legal contests to vie for the legal initiative in
order to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity." And
h e 's j u s t b a c k a s I 'm q u o t i n g .
I 'm g o i n g b a c k t o t h e i s s u e o f l e g a l w a r f a r e , b u t i s t h e r e
a n y w h e r e i n t h e U . S . g o v e r n me n t t h a t i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t a k i n g a
b i g g e r p i c t u r e l o o k ? B e c a u s e i t f e e l s a l i t t l e s t o v e - p i p e d t o me - - h e ' s
t a l k i n g a b o u t ma r i t i me l a w ; y o u 'r e t a l k i n g a b o u t s p a c e l a w .
C o n s e q u e n c e s o f a d e c i s i o n b y C h i n a t o p u s h u p , f o r e x a mp l e , w i t h
nobody responding, set a legal precedent that could be used in
s o me t h i n g c o mp l e t e l y u n r e l a t e d t o t h a t ?
M R . M E E K : Y e s , ma 'a m.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: Wh o i s i t ? Wh e r e i n t h e
U . S . g o v e r n me n t d o e s t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y l i e t o l o o k a t t h e b i g g e r
- 119 -
p i c t u r e o f w h a t i s h a p p e n i n g i n t e r ms o f C h i n a 's l e g a l w a r f a r e ?
M R . M E E K : M y p e r s o n a l v i e w i s I d o n 't t h i n k t h e r e i s a n y o n e
p l a c e . A n d t h a t i s a w e a k l i n k i n t he s e n s e t h a t y o u h a v e t o r e l y o n t h e
i n t e l l i g e n c e o r t h e s k i l l s o f v a r i o u s p e o p l e a t l e v e l s o f g o v e r n me n t t o
respond to that.
For instance, when I see things on an international front that
g i v e me c a u s e f o r c o n c e r n i n t h e s p a c e a r e n a - - l e t 's j u s t t a k e f o r
i n s t a n c e , I w i l l g o t o o u r s p a c e p o l i c y p e o p l e a n d I 'd s a y I 'm r e a l l y
bothered by this. I see this as a legal problem down the road.
O k a y . A n d l e t 's s a y i f i t 's s o me t h i n g t h a t r e q u i r e s a d i p l o ma t i c
i n i t i a t i v e , t h e n w e ' l l t a l k t o t h e l a w y e r s a t t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t o r t h e
p o l i c y p e o p l e a t S t a t e D e p a r t me n t . B u t w h e n y o u 'r e t a l k i n g a b o u t
s t a t e - t o - s t a t e r e l a t i o n s , i t ' s g o i n g t o b e b a s i c a l l y S t a t e D e p a r t me n t ' s
c a l l a s t o h o w a n d w h e n t o e n g a g e . S o me t i me s t h e y ma y a g r e e a n d
s o me t i me s t h e y d o n 't .
S o ma y b e w h e n y o u g e t a c e r t a i n n u mb e r o f p e o p l e r a i s i n g t h e
i s s u e s , c e r t a i n o f f i c e s , ma y b e t h e y s t a r t c o a l e s c i n g a t s o me h i g h l e v e l ,
National Security Council, for instance.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: R i g h t .
M R . M E E K : B u t I 'm n o t a w a r e o f a n y o n e o f f i c e t h a t w o u l d b e
r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h a t . I t h i n k i t 's b a s i c a l l y i n d i v i d u a l s t h a t i d e n t i f y
s o me t h i n g , s o me a r e a o f c o n c e r n , a n d f l o a t i t u p t h e i r c h a n n e l s , a n d ,
you know, when the general officers or the high level SES or political
a p p o i n t e e s s t a r t g e t t i n g e n e r g i z e d o n i t , t h a t 's w h e n i t g e t s a d d r e s s e d
at the high levels.
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: A n d c a n I s t e p o u t o f o u r
u s u a l r o u t i n e a n d a s k M r . D u t t o n i f h e k n o w s o f - - I me a n s i mi l a r l y . I
u n d e r s t a n d t h a t y o u 'r e i n a n a c a d e mi c p o s i t i o n , b u t i f t h e r e 's
s o me t h i n g o f c o n c e r n , i s t h e r e a c h a i n w h i c h y o u c a n g o t o a p l a c e
w h e r e s o me b o d y i s l o o k i n g a t t h e b i g g e r p i c t u r e o f a l l o f t h i s ?
M R . D U T T O N : I w o u l d j u s t a g r ee w i t h t h e t e s t i mo n y t h a t y o u 'v e
already heard with one exception, that the DOD Office of General
C o u n s e l o f t e n w i l l a c t a s r e f e r e e i f n e c e s s a r y , a t l e a s t a mo n g t h e
D e p a r t me n t o f D e f e n s e , b u t b e t w e e n a g e n c i e s , I w o u l d a g r e e w i t h t h e
t e s t i mo n y .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : I f I c o u l d a d d , my e x p e r i e n c e h a s
b e e n t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t w o u l d c l a i m t h a t i t h a s p r i ma c y w i t h i n t h e
U . S . g o v e r n me n t f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w i s s u e s t h a t a f f e c t p o l i c y . T h e
o t h e r q u e s t i o n t h a t c o me s t o mi n d , t h i s ma y b e d i f f e r e n t , b u t w h a t t h i s
f o r e i g n d i s c o u r s e b r o u g h t t o my a t t e n t i o n i s w h e t h e r a n y b o d y i n t h e
f e d e r a l g o v e r n me n t i s l o o k i n g a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w i s s u e s f r o m a n
i n t e l l i g e n c e p e r s p e c t i v e , a n d I 'm n o t a w a r e o f a n y b o d y d o i n g t h a t .
B u t o u r u n d e r s t a n d i n g i s t h a t t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t w o u l d b e
d o i n g t h a t . I n f a c t , C o mmi s s i o n e r F i e d l e r a n d I r e q u e s t e d a S t a t e
- 120 -
D e p a r t me n t l a w y e r w h o i s e n g a g e d i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a w a n d
sovereignty issues to be here today, but we were unable to obtain
s o me b o d y f r o m t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : A c t u a l l y w e ' r e n o t g i v i n g d u e c r e d i t t o
s o me t h i n g s t h a t h a v e b e e n d o n e . T h e C e n t e r f o r N a v a l A n a l y s i s a n d
F F R D C u n d e r c o n t r a c t f r o m t h e D e p a r t me n t o f D e f e n s e h a s d o n e
classified and for-official-use-only studies of the evolution of this
c o n c e p t o f l e g a l w a r f a r e , b u t w e 'r e j u s t n o t s e e i n g i t .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: O k a y .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : A n d t h e O p e n S o u r c e C e n t e r , w h i c h i s
C I A 's o r g a n i z a t i o n , a n d t h e f o r me r F B I S h a s t w o ma j o r s t u d i e s o u t
w h i c h a r e o f f i c i a l - u s e - o n l y t h a t a s s e s s a l l C h i n e s e mi l i t a r y
publications and their authors and their validity, their level of
authority, and how they influence Chinese policy. So this is being
d o n e . I t i s o u t t h e r e . I t 's n o t a l w a y s i n o p e n s o u r c e c h a n n e l s .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: O k a y . A n d I a p p r e c i a t e
t h a t . T h i s i s j u s t i g n o r a n c e o n my p a r t , b u t i s i t a l s o t h e n
c o mp r e h e n s i v e ? I f s o me b o d y a t t h e C o mme r c e D e p a r t me n t i s d e a l i n g
with a legal issue and we know that there is precedence setting, not in
that realm of law, but in that strategy, taking place in this space
f o r u m, i s t h e r e s o me p l a c e w h e r e s o me b o d y 's g o t t h e i r e y e o n t h e
b i g g e r p i c t u r e o f w h a t 's g o i n g o n ?
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : N o t o n s p a c e o r c y b e r .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: N o , n o , b u t I 'm n o t
s a y i n g j u s t s p a c e o r c y b e r . I 'm s a y i n g t h e b i g g e r p i c t u r e a b o u t a l e g a l
strategy related to sovereignty that is setting precedent?
D R . L E WI S : I u s e d t o w o r k a t t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t a n d s o I
d e a l t w i t h s o me i s s u e s l i k e t h i s . Y o u 'r e r i g h t t h a t t h e p r o c e s s i s
ma i n l y r e a c t i v e . S o i f a f o r e ig n g o v e r n me n t c a me i n a n d g a v e u s a
note that said, by the way, we own all the space that extends over our
c o u n t r y a l l t h e w a y o u t t o i n f i n i t y , w e w o u l d r e s p o n d . We w o u l d
r e s p o n d b y ma k i n g f u n o f t h e m.
T h e o t h e r t h i n g , a n d t h i s i s s o me t h i n g y o u l e a r n f r o m y o u r
c h i l d h o o d a t S t a t e , i s t h a t o n l y t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t s p e a k s f o r t h e
U . S . g o v e r n me n t o n t h e s e t h i n g s , a n d s o i f a n o t h e r a g e n c y o r
d e p a r t me n t , l i k e C o mme r c e , w e r e t o ma k e a s l i p , n o t u n u s u a l , t h e n i t 's
n o t b i n d i n g . Y o u h a v e t o g e t i t t hr o u g h t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t f r o m
e i t h e r t h e Wh i t e H o u s e o r t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t .
S o i n s o me w a y s , i f C h i n a s a i d h e y , l o o k , w e 'v e g o t t h i s
d o c u me n t s i g n e d b y t h e C o mme r c e D e p a r t me n t a n d i t p r o v e s t h a t w e 'r e
r i g h t , w e w o u l d j u s t t h r o w y o u o u t . We w o u l d l a u g h a t y o u .
V I C E C H A I R M A N B A R T H O L O M E W: I t h i n k w h a t I 'm s t i l l
r e a l l y c o n c e r n e d a b o u t h e r e a n d w o u l d a s k b o t h o f t h e c h a i r ma n a n d
t h e c o c h a i r me n o f t h i s h e a r i n g , t h a t w e n e e d f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f
- 121 -
w h a t i s t a k i n g p l a c e i n t h e U . S . g o v e r n me n t t o t r a c k t h i s . G o i n g b a c k
t o t h i s q u o t e , w h i c h I t h i n k i s o n e o f t h e mo s t i mp o r t a n t t h i n g s w e 'v e
h e a r d t o d a y , i s t h a t " l e g a l w a r r i o r s mu s t b e f a r s i g h t e d t o d i s c e r n a n y
p r o b l e ms b e f o r e t h e y a c t u a l l y a r i s e . " I w o u l d r e a l l y l i k e t o k n o w
w h e r e t h o s e l e g a l w a r r i o r s a r e i n o u r o w n g o v e r n me n t a s w e h e a d i n t o
this.
T h a n k y o u , g e n t l e me n .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : T h a n k y o u . C o mmi s s i o n e r S h e a .
C O M M I S S I O N E R S H E A : T h a n k y o u v e r y mu c h . I 'm g o i n g t o
c o n t i n u e o n w i t h t h e l e g a l q u e s t i o n , a n d I t h i n k mo s t o f my q u e s t i o n s
a r e f o r M r . M e e k . Y o u s a i d i n y o u r o r a l t e s t i mo n y o r p e r h a p s i n
response to a question that the U.S. typically when responding to cyber
p e n e t r a t i o n , c y b e r a t t a c k s , n o t i f i e s t h e g o v e r n me n t w h e r e t h e
perpetrator, alleged perpetrator, I suppose, resides, and requests that
t h e y b e c r i mi n a l l y p r o s e c u t e d u n d e r t h a t c o u n t r y 's o w n l a w s .
C o u l d y o u t e l l me w h e t h e r w h e n y o u ma k e t h o s e r e q u e s t s , a r e
t h e y n o r ma l l y f u l f i l l e d ?
M R . M E E K : T h e y a r e i n ma n y c a s e s . We h a d o n e c a s e i n
G e r ma n y s e v e r a l y e a r s a g o w h e r e t h a t o c c u r r e d . I b e l i e v e w e 'v e h a d a
c a s e i n t h e U K . I c a n 't n a me a l l o f t h e m, b u t I d o k n o w t h a t w e h a v e
g o n e b a c k t o s e v e r a l g o v e r n me n t s .
T h e p r o b l e m ma n y t i me s i s t h a t t h e r e a r e n o t ma n y c y b e r
c r i mi n a l l a w s i n ma n y o f t h e g o v e r n me n t s . S o a l t h o u g h t h e y ma y b e
s u p p o r t i v e o f u s a n d t h e y u n d e r s t a n d t h a t s o me b o d y h a s d o n e
s o me t h i n g b a d t o o u r s y s t e ms , t h e y d o n 't h a v e a w a y t o p r o s e c u t e . T h e
U . S . d o e s h a v e c y b e r c r i me s t h a t w e d o p r o s e c u t e i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .

B u t o n mo r e t h a n a f e w o c c a s i o n s w h e n w e g o t o C o u n t r y X , t h e y
j u s t d o n 't h a v e t h e l a w s l i k e w e d o . I t 's n o t i s s u e - -
COMMISSIONER SHEA: So one of the things the United States
c o u l d b e d o i n g i s p r o mo t i n g a mo d e l c o d e t o e n f o r c e c y b e r l a w s ? O r
mo d e l c y b e r l a w c o d e ?
M R . M E E K : R i g h t . T h e r e a r e s o me c y b e r c r i me t r e a t i e s t h a t a
f e w c o u n t r i e s b e l o n g t o l i k e i n E u r o p e , a n d w e d o ma n y t i me s w h e n w e
identify a problem with a country, talk to that country about starting
their own legislative process to address it.
B u t q u i t e f r a n k l y , ma n y t i me s i t 's h a r d t o g e t a l o t o f e n t h u s i a s m
in the countries to press forward with that. Just because of their
d o me s t i c p r i o r i t i e s .
C O M M I S S I O N E R S H E A : A s a f o l l o w - u p , y o u me n t i o n e d t h e
U . S . c y b e r c r i me l a w , c o u l d y o u a s s e s s w h e t h e r t h a t l a w i s e f f e c t i v e ?
I s i t s u f f i c i e n t l y c l e a r ? C a n i t b e c l a r i f i e d ? C a n i t b e i mp r o v e d i n
anyway?
M R . M E E K : I w o u l d s a y t h a t mo s t a n y l a w c a n b e i mp r o v e d . I t
- 122 -
is being used in the U.S. There are prosecutions under it, and so from
that extent I think that it is successful. The U.S. attorneys have the
a b i l i t y t o p r o s e c u t e . S o me s t a t e s h a v e s t a t u t e s a s w e l l .
Could it be better? Sure. I'm sure it could be. But once again it
d e p e n d s o n t h e l e g i s l a t i v e p r o c e s s e s a n d w h a t i s o n p e o p l e 's p r i o r i t y
lists.
C O M M I S S I O N E R S H E A : D o y o u h a v e s o me t h i n g t o a d d , M r .
Lewis?
D R . L E WI S : S u r e . Y o u w a n t t o l o o k a t t h e C o u n c i l o f E u r o p e
C y b e r c r i me C o n v e n t i o n , w h i c h i s t h e t h i n g t h a t t h e U . S . i s f i n a l l y ,
a f t e r l o n g d e l a y s , a s i g n a t o r y t o . T h a t 's i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t a n d a r d . A n d
getting other countries to adhere to that Convention would be very
useful.
T h e U . S . d i d n 't h a v e a n y t r o u b l e s i g n i n g t h e C o n v e n t i o n b e c a u s e
our laws are very robust and they cover everything that people do.
N o w , t h e r e i s a l w a y s r o o m f o r i mp r o v e me n t , b u t t h e i s s u e o n t h e U . S .
s i d e i s w h e n y o u f i n d s o me o n e o u t s i d e o f o u r t e r r i t o r y a n d o u r
j u r i s d i c t i o n , a n d t h e n h o w d o y o u p u r s u e t h e m, h o w d o y o u g e t t h e m
extradited, how do you get the other country to intervene?
T h e c l a s s i c e x a mp l e i s t h e " L o v e B u g , " w h i c h w a s o n e o f t h e
viruses that went around the world; it was very disruptive. It was
written by a Philippine student who wanted to show his girlfriend, I
g u e s s , t h a t h e l i k e d h e r o r s o me t h i n g . Wh e n h e w a s f i n a l l y t r a c k e d
d o w n a n d c a u g h t , t h e P h i l i p p i n e s d i d n 't h a v e a c y b e r c r i me l a w , a n d I
t h i n k h e g o t b a s i c a l l y s o me t h i n g l i k e c o mmu n i t y s e r v i c e .
They did not have laws on the book. So one of the things the
U.S. is doing is encouraging countries to try and sign up to this
C o n v e n t i o n w h i c h i s v e r y c o mp l e t e a n d c r i mi n a l i z e s t h e s e s o r t s o f
intrusions.
COMMISSIONER SHEA: Thank you. Can I ask a question or
t w o ? M r . M e e k , I t o t a l l y a g r e e w i t h y o u w h e n y o u s a i d i f w e 'r e g o i n g
to respond to a cyber attack or cyber penetration, we better get it
r i g h t ; w e b e t t e r g e t t h e s o u r c e r i g h t . Wh a t a r e w e d o i n g t o i mp r o v e
our ability to get it right? And have the steps to get it right been
sufficient so far?
M R . M E E K : P a r t o f i t , I 'd s a y y e s , w e h a v e u n d e r t a k e n ma n y o f
t h o s e s t e p s . We h a v e i n c r e a s e d , f o r i n s t a n c e , i n t e l l i g e n c e t r a i n i n g
budgets, people like that that have to do a lot of the work, the
c o mp u t e r t e c h n i c i a n s , t h e t e c h n o l o g y s o f t w a r e d e v e l o p me n t , e t c e t e r a ,
a n d s o t h o s e e f f o r t s h a v e b e e n u n d e r t a k e n a n d a r e i mp r o v e d . B u t w e
s t i l l h a v e t h e s a me p r o b l e m i n t h e e n d o f q u i c k l y g e t t i n g t o t h e s o u r c e .
O n e o f t h e p r o b l e ms i s s o me g o v e r n me n t s ma y n o t c o o p e r a t e .
Wh e n y o u g e t t o a s e r v e r s a y i n a p a r t i c u l a r c o u n t r y , y o u h a v e t o g o i n
a n d t h e y r e q u i r e y o u t o c o mp l y w i t h t h e i r l e g a l r e q u i r e me n t s . T h e n
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y o u ' r e t a l k i n g a b o u t ma n y t i me s g e t t i n g w a r r a n t s f r o m t h e i r c o u n t r i e s ,
and part of our discussions with them is trying to have prenegotiated
processes in place to where we could do this quickly if we see a source
of activity.
We d o h a v e t h a t t y p e o f a c t i v i t y , b u t t h e b o t t o m l i n e i s i t s t i l l
c a n b e a l e n g t h y p r o c e s s u n l e s s s o me b o d y i s r e a l l y c l u ms y , b u t mo s t o f
t h e p e o p l e i n t h i s a r e a a r e a w f u l l y s ma r t .
COMMISSIONER SHEA: Do you have anything to add, Mr.
Lewis?
D R . L E WI S : D e p a r t me n t o f J u s t i c e h a s a n o f f i c e c a l l e d t h e
C o mp u t e r C r i me s a n d I n t e l l e c t u a l P r o p e r t y S e c t i o n a n d t h e y 'v e
n e g o t i a t e d s o me t h i n g c a l l e d t h e G - 8 R a p i d R e s p o n s e A g r e e me n t , w h i c h
n o w I t h i n k h a s g o n e b e y o n d t h e G - 8 , a n d i t 's a b o u t 6 0 c o u n t r i e s , t h a t
p r o mi s e s 2 4 / 7 p o i n t s o f c o n t a c t s o t h a t w h e n y o u d e t e c t a c r i me , y o u
c a n c a l l y o u r c o u n t e r p a r t i n a n o t h e r j u s t i c e mi n i s t r y a n d s a y c a n I g e t
a n i mme d i a t e r e s p o n s e ?
A n d s o i f y o u 'r e i n t e r e s t e d , t h e y w o u l d b e t h e p e o p l e y o u 'd w a n t
to talk to, but the problem is that half the world is doing the right
thing. Half the world has good laws; half the world is in the Rapid
R e s p o n s e s e c t i o n . I t 's t h e o t h e r f o l k s . A n d , o f c o u r s e , a s y o u s a y , t h e
c y b e r c r i mi n a l s a r e v e r y s k i l l f u l . T h e y mo v e t o w h a t h a v e b e c o me
sanctuaries essentially, and we need to figure out ways to squeeze
down those sanctuaries and force them out.
COMMISSIONER SHEA: Thank you.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Thank you. Moving on to a quick
s e c o n d r o u n d b e f o r e t i me r u n s o u t , I d o h a v e o n e q u e s t i o n f o r e a c h o f
y o u . Wh a t a r e t h e t w o o r t h r e e t h i n g s e a c h o f y o u w o u l d r e c o mme n d
to the next president to either (a) prevent China from redefining its
s o v e r e i g n t y i n a w a y t h a t ma y b e d e l e t e r i o u s t o o u r i n t e r e s t s ; ( b )
protect our own interests; or (c) prevent any type of friction or
conflict when there are differences of opinion between our
g o v e r n me n t s ? Y o u r l a w - f a r e e x a mp l e , M r . M e e k , i s a g o o d o n e , f o r
e x a mp l e .
M R . M E E K : I t h i n k C h i n a - - w i t h mo s t c o u n t r i e s , I t h i n k y o u c a n
sit down and discuss at a very detailed level how to resolve those
p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e ms . T h e t h i n g I s e e w i t h C h i n a i s t h e y d o n 't w a n t t o
engage in that discussion. They are very firm on their views of
s o v e r e i g n t y a n d f r o m w h a t I 'v e s e e n a r e v e r y r e t i c e n t t o b a c k o f f o f
that position and they aggressively hold it.
So it takes two to tango, and if the other party does not want to
d i s c u s s o r n e g o t i a t e o r c o mp r o mi s e , i t ma k e s i t v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o
c o n t i n u e t h e d i a l o g u e . A s a n e x a mp l e , A d mi r a l K e a t i n g w a s i n C h i n a
for ten days trying to engage on the issue of the purpose behind their
ASAT test, et cetera, and he got stonewalled.
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 Ten days of effort, and these discussions have been going on for
a w h o l e y e a r . S o i t 's v e r y c l e a r i t 's a p o l i c y o f t h e g o v e r n me n t ; t h e y
d o n 't w a n t t o e n g a g e o n t h a t t r a n s p a r e n c y .
Second thing is, particularly concerning China, I think that there
h a s t o b e , a n d I w o u l d r e c o mme n d t h a t w h e n C h i n a u n d e r t a k e s t h e s e
actions that are in violation of international law, and it's in our
interest that that international law continue, that they do need to be
e n g a g e d a t h i g h l e v e l s . I t h i n k w h a t h a p p e n s ma n y t i me s i s i t 's , q u o t e ,
" n o t a b i g d e a l ; " e v e r y b o d y s t a n d s b a c k ; t h e y 'r e n o t w o r r i e d a b o u t i t ;
a n i n c i d e n t h a s n 't h a p p e n e d . S o t h e n t h e y s t a r t b u i l d i n g t r a c k r e c o r d s .
F o r i n s t a n c e , l i k e t h e s e c l a i ms , i f i t i s a C h i n e s e p o s i t i o n , a n d I
c a n ' t s a y t h a t i t i s b e c a u s e t h e r e i s n o d e f i n i t i v e s t a t e me n t , i f t h e y a r e
literally adhering to this view of their projections of sovereignty, I
w o u l d s a y t h e S t a t e D e p a r t me n t n e e d s t o g e t e n g a g e d .
T h e p r o b l e m i s w i t h n o o f f i c i a l s t a t e me n t f r o m C h i n a , t h e r e i s
n o t h i n g t o o f f i c i a l l y d e ma r c h e . U n l e s s t h e y j u s t w a n t t o e n g a g e i n
d i s c u s s i o n s , i t 's v e r y h a r d t o s i t d o w n a t t h e t a b l e .
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Related to that, do you think our
Freedom of Navigation Program is robust enough?
MR. MEEK: Do I think it is? I think within the resources that
w e h a v e , i t i s . R e me mb e r , t h a t a l s o c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d , a l t h o u g h w e d o
i t , i t c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d b y t h o s e n at i o n s u n l i k e C h i n a t o b e p r o v o c a t i v e
i t s e l f . S o , y e s , I f u l l y s u p p o r t t h e F O N p r o g r a m.
O t h e r c o u n t r i e s h a v e s i mi l a r s e c u r i t y c l a i ms . N o r t h K o r e a h a s a
5 0 mi l e z o n e t h a t w e r o u t i n e l y r u n a s h i p o r a n a i r c r a f t t h r o u g h . A n d
I n d o n e s i a . M a n y c o u n t r i e s d o . T h a t 's t h e w a y t h a t y o u s t a y o f f i c i a l l y
o n r e c o r d o f v o i c i n g y o u r o b j e c t i o n , a n d t h e y c a n n o t c o me b a c k t o y o u
later and say you acquiesced.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: Dr. Lewis.
D R . L E WI S : A f e w y e a r s a g o L i b y a a s s e r t e d t h a t t h e G u l f o f
T r i p o l i w a s i t s d o me s t i c w a t e r s , a n d i t w a s n i c e t h a t t h e y a s s e r t e d i t ,
you know, but the U.S. sailed ships through it routinely and basically
s a i d t o t h e L i b y a n s w h a t a r e y o u g o i n g t o d o a b o u t i t ? A n d t h a t 's w h a t
we need to do in this case.
I n d o n e s i a i s a n o t h e r g o o d e x a mp l e . I t h i n k i t 's t h e B a n d a
S t r a i t s . T h e y a l w a y s a n n o u n c e , h e y , l o o k , i t 's b e t w e e n t w o o f o u r
i s l a n d s ; t h e r e f o r e , i t 's o u r s . A n d w e s a i l a s h i p t h r o u g h e v e r y o n c e i n
awhile.
The U.S. needs to assert its rights consistent with international
law and practice. And that can be in response to a Chinese activity,
b u t t h e f a c t t h a t a n o t h e r c o u n t r y a n n o u n c e s t h a t i t 's d o i n g s o me t h i n g
i s n 't b i n d i n g ; r i g h t . A n d a t t h e e n d o f t h e d a y , t h e y e i t h e r n e e d t o b e
a b l e t o ma k e a c a s e i n c o u r t , s o me c o u r t , y o u k n o w , a n d t h e r e i s n o
court that would support China on this, or they need to enforce their
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a s s e r t i o n s , a n d I d o n 't b e l i e v e t h e C h i n e s e c a n d o t h a t . So this
reassertion of U.S. rights.
The second thing is we need to change the cost for potential
a t t a c k e r s a n d t h i s g o e s b e y o n d C h i n a . R i g h t n o w i t 's b e e n s o r t o f e a s y
t o a t t a c k t h e U . S . i n s o me a r e a s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n c y b e r s p a c e . We n e e d
t o ma k e i t mo r e d i f f i c u l t t o d o t h a t .
O n e w a y , o f c o u r s e , i s t o i mp r o v e o u r d e f e n s e s . T h e o t h e r w a y
i s t o t h i n k a b o u t p o t e n t i a l r e s p o n s e s , n o t n e c e s s a r i l y mi l i t a r y , t h a t
w o u l d ma k e i t mo r e d a ma g i n g o r l e s s b e n e f i c i a l f o r a n a t t a c k e r . S o I 'd
want to continue to assert our rights, change the calculus of this kind
o f n e w k i n d o f w a r f a r e , n e w k i n d o f a t t a c k s , t o ma k e i t a l i t t l e l e s s
attractive.
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R E S P E R : T h a n k y o u . T h a t 's v e r y h e l p f u l .
T h e l a s t t w o q u e s t i o n e r s a r e D r . Wo r t z e l a n d t h e n C o mmi s s i o n e r
Fiedler.
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : M r . L e w i s , t h e r e ' s o n e p o i n t i n y o u r
w r i t t e n t e s t i mo n y I w a n t t o c h a l l e n g e y o u o n . A c t u a l l y y o u s a i d i t ,
too.
D R . L E WI S : I t h o u g h t I c u t a l l t h a t s t u f f o u t .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : Y e s , y o u g o t t h r o u g h . O n p a g e t h r e e
y o u s a y w e o u g h t t o t a k e c o mf o r t t h a t C h i n a i s n o t f u n d a me n t a l l y
expansionist and it does not plan to increase its territory nor does it
s e e k t o f o r c e o t h e r n a t i o n s t o a d o p t i t s mo d e l o f g o v e r n me n t . I a g r e e
with the last part of that. It does not try to force other nations to
a d o p t i t s mo d e l o f g o v e r n me n t .
M y q u e s t i o n f o r y o u i s , a r e y o u c e d i n g t o t h e P e o p l e 's R e p u b l i c
o f C h i n a i t s ma r i t i me c l a i ms o v e r t h e e n t i r e S o u t h C h i n a S e a a n d t h e
islands? That is an expansion of territory.
D R . L E WI S : I d o n 't s e e t h e m a s a b i n d i n g c l a i m; r i g h t . S o y o u
c a n c l a i m, t h e C h i n e s e c a n c l a i m t h e mo o n , a n d y o u c a n g o , t h e r e 's a
p l a c e w h e r e y o u c a n g o n o w a n d y o u c a n b u y p l o t s o n t h e mo o n . G o
ahead; enforce it, you know. And the Chinese can announce they own
the North Pole, and the Russians recently announced that, oh, by the
w a y , t h e y o w n e d t h e N o r t h P o l e . T h a t 's n i c e , b u t w h a t I w o u l d a l w a y s
say is how are you going to enforce it?
S o I d o n 't r e g a r d i t a s , w h e n y o u s e e t h e s e c l a i ms , t h e y 'r e n o t
b i n d i n g , a n d t h e y 'r e t o u c h i n g a n d p e r h a p s t h e y p l a y w e l l d o me s t i c a l l y ,
b u t t h e y 'r e n o t .
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : U n l e s s t h e y s o me h o w d e v e l o p t h e
mi l i t a r y c a p a c i t y t o e n f o r c e i t .
D R . L E WI S : R i g h t . T h a t 's w h a t i t w o u l d c o me d o w n t o - - y o u
c a n ma k e t h e c l a i m a r e y o u w i l l i n g t o e n f o r c e t h a t , a n d my b e t w o u l d
b e r i g h t n o w t h e C h i n e s e a r e n o t . I f i t c a me t o t h a t p o i n t , i t w o u l d b e
a v e r y mu c h mo r e d a n g e r o u s s i t u a t i o n , a n d I d o n 't t h i n k w e w o u l d b e
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alone in opposing the Chinese in that.
C H A I R M A N WO R T Z E L : I a p p r e c i a t e i t .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Just a quick question, Dr.
L e w i s . Y o u ma d e a c o mme n t a b o u t C h i n e s e d e c i s i o n - ma k i n g b e i n g
weak and disjointed, and I think you referred to the ASAT test and the
f o r e i g n mi n i s t r y b e i n g l e f t o u t . We p u r s u e d t h i s b o t h i n t e s t i mo n y l a s t
y e a r a n d i n me e t i n g s i n C h i n a w h e n w e v i s i t e d .
I s t h e r e n e w i n f o r ma t i o n a b o u t t h a t d e c i s i o n - ma k i n g p r o c e s s ?
D R . L E WI S : N o , I s t i l l t h i n k - -
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : We h a d a l l k i n d s - - L a w l e s s .
We h a d C a r t w r i g h t .
D R . L E WI S : C e n t e r f o r N a v a l A n a l y s i s h a s d o n e q u i t e a l o t o f
g o o d w o r k o n t h i s , a n d I h a v e h e a r d i t n o w f r o m ma n y s o u r c e s
i n c l u d i n g f r o m C h i n e s e mi l i t a r y o f f i c i a l s w h o h a v e v i s i t e d t h e U . S .
t h a t t h e y w i l l a d mi t t h a t , g o s h , t h e y w e r e n ' t o n t h e c a l l l i s t o r
s o me t h i n g .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: We ' v e h e a r d r e p e a t e d
t e s t i mo n y t h a t t h e y h a v e a c o n s e n s u s d e c i s i o n - ma k i n g p r o c e s s w i t h a n
apparently differing consensus depending upon the issue.
D R . L E WI S : R i g h t .
H E A R I N G C O C H A I R F I E D L E R : O r a l i mi t e d c o n s e n s u s .
D R . L E WI S : T h e U . S . h a s s p e n t a l o t o f t i me t h i n k i n g a b o u t h o w
y o u ma k e t h e s e d e c i s i o n s , a n d w e 'v e d e v e l o p e d o v e r d e c a d e s t h e
N a t i o n a l S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l s y s t e m. T h e C h i n e s e r e a l l y d o n 't h a v e a n
e q u i v a l e n t . T h e y h a v e s o me c o mmi t t e e s , p a r t y c o mmi t t e e s , t h e y h a v e
mi l i t a r y o v e r s i g h t c o mmi t t e e s , b u t t h e y d o n 't h a v e a s i n c l u s i v e a
process.
A s s o me p e o p l e h a v e s a i d t o t h e C h i n e s e , t h e r e 's a b e n e f i t t o
b e i n g t r a n s p a r e n t a n d h a v i n g o p e n d e b a t e b e c a u s e y o u 'r e l e s s l i k e l y t o
ma k e t h i s k i n d o f mi s c a l c u l a t i o n , a n d t h e U . S . f o r w h a t e v e r r e a s o n i s
mu c h mo r e t r a n s p a r e n t a n d t h a t g i v e s u s a s t r o n g e r d e c i s i o n - ma k i n g
p r o c e s s . T h e y n e e d t o mo v e i n t h a t d i r e c t i o n .
HEARING COCHAIR FIEDLER: Thank you.
HEARING COCHAIR ESPER: I d o n 't s e e t h a t a n y o f t h e
c o mmi s s i o n e r s h a v e a n y f u r t h e r q u e s t i o n s . S o g e n t l e me n , I w a n t t o
t h a n k y o u v e r y mu c h f o r y o u r t e s t i mo n y t o d a y , a n d y o u r a n s w e r s . I t
w a s v e r y i n s i g h t f u l a n d y o u p r o v i d e d u s a l o t o f g o o d i n f o r ma t i o n .
Wi t h t h a t , I 'd l i k e t o c o n c l u d e t h e p a n e l a n d a d j o u r n t o d a y 's h e a r i n g .
Thank you.
[ Wh e r e u p o n , a t 4 : 3 3 p . m. , t h e h e a r i n g w a s a d j o u r n e d . ]

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