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GPEKS

Clean Energy Developments & Services

207 Bank Street, Box 173, Ottawa, Ontario K2P 2N2

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Feasibility Analysis for 520 KW Solar Photovoltaic Project at Consejo Belize

Figure 1: Gated Community of Mayan Seaside

Client: GPEKS lead consortium. 207 Bank Street, Ottawa ON K2P 2N2 Canada
5/18/08 Rev. 2

Author: Brian Walker, CD, CD1,CET

CONFIDENTIAL

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................3 2. Introduction.........................................................................................................................4 3. Technological Analysis .......................................................................................................6 3.1. Solar Photovoltaic Equipment Options ............................................................................6 3.2. Balance of System Options............................................................................................13 3.1.1. Module Support Structure..........................................................................................13 3.1.2. Power Conditioning Equipment .................................................................................18 4. Technical Analysis ............................................................................................................23 4.1. Solar Resources .............................................................................................................23 4.2. Site Analysis..................................................................................................................27 4.3. Logistics and Equipment Procurements .........................................................................36 5. Institutional Analysis.........................................................................................................37 5.1. Local/Public Approval, Permits and Codes ....................................................................37 5.2. District Permits and Codes.............................................................................................40 5.3. Other Project Considerations .........................................................................................42 5.4. Government Permits and Codes.....................................................................................42 5.5. Electrical Regulations....................................................................................................42 6. Environmental Analysis ....................................................................................................46 6.1. GHG Reductions Analysis .............................................................................................46 6.2. Other Environmental Aspects ........................................................................................48 6.3. Social Impact Analysis ..................................................................................................51 7. Economical Analysis .........................................................................................................55 7.1. Cost Analysis ................................................................................................................55 7.2. Financial Analysis .........................................................................................................62 7.3. Sensitivity Analysis .......................................................................................................67 8. Organizational Feasibility..................................................................................................71 8.1. The Project Development Teams ...................................................................................72 8.2. Construction & Logistics ...............................................................................................74 9. Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................79 10. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................84 11. Recommendations .........................................................................................................84 12. Attachments ..................................................................................................................86 Site Assessment - Supplemental to Technical Analysis Special thanks GT500 Inverter

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1. Executive Summary
Two different technologies were examined for a 520 kW solar photovoltaic (PV) installation within the Consejo area of Belize. Implementation time frame was set at 2010/11. The project developers have expressed an interest in the new emerging inexpensive nano technologies slated to hit the marked en mass in the required time frame. They have also expressed a need to squeeze maximum output from the array as possible. For this reason I have focused on technologies such as cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) or thin film modules and dual-axis trackers in particular, so the study focused on these products. The newly elected government is in favour of the idea of renewable technologies. With that said, the gated communities in Belizes north have experienced blackouts and rising power costs. They will be the driving stakeholders behind this pre-feasibility study. When choosing a tracker, many considerations important have been considered, especially the local climate. The tracker selected was one that could be manufactured in Belize with limited skill sets and readily maintained. This study analyzed two different locations and concluded that the Consejo road across from the banded Consejo Airport was the most promising. This area provides a continuous 50+ acres and can be an appropriate site from the road. There are also a number of readily available transmission lines of sufficient capacity. While the project will have to be handled with some care due to the proximity of the road/airport, the regulatory hurdles should not prevent successful project completion. Several risks, however, could significantly hinder or prevent the project. Some of these risks, like the risk that the estimates made for the technology are too ambitious, can be assessed but not be offset. Proactive strategies can mitigate other risks. One of the more prominent risks, difficulty in locating project financers, can be offset by acquiring insurance for financing, for example. The project appears to be financially feasible, especially if the Belize government joins the effort as a partner, thereby allowing the project access to attractive, low interest loans. The after tax IRR and ROI are 30.3%, the simple payback is 7 years, and the net present value is $892,956.00 USD. Major project costs are summarized in the table below.
Table 1: Major Project Costs Feasibility Study $3,793 Development $2950 Engineering $2,140 PV Modules $823,400 Balance of Equipment Miscellaneous Total Initial Costs Annual O&M $731,600 $81,344 $1,645,227 $16,760

Changes in several factors are unlikely to significantly harm the project potential. These include the renewable energy delivered, annual costs, ad the debt term. Unfortunately, an increase in the initial project costs could make the project much less attractive, and there is significant uncertainty in the costs.

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2. Introduction
With the introduction of a new Government in Belize, the construction of large grid tied solar electricity projects are now favourable. This makes the Consejo area an appealing location for large solar farms. Several large North American gated communities which draw megawatts are currently growing rapidly in the area and are often facing daytime blackouts. Belize currently does not have a national energy plan. Energy demands are met on an ad hoc basis primarily from Mexico.

Belize does produce its own electricity but imports are now at a substantial 50%. Passing 5% GDP for government expenditures. The entire country has now reached 34MWhr in total electrical usage.

Surprising with all the sunshine Belize has not taken advantage of the PV market. Individual home owners have. And with North American gated communities springing up large PV arrays are truly about to come alive. When considering grid fed alternatives, solar farms generally do not match wind farms in terms of cost effectiveness1. Here, we use the term cost effective to mean a comparison of the cost per kWh based only on the equipment, installation, and operations and maintenance costs. Thin film photovoltaics, particularly Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) and Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) modules, have great potential for efficiency improvements and price reductions. These technologies could help to bridge the cost gap between solar photovoltaics and wind turbines as renewable energy generators, particularly when the thin film modules are used on tracking devices. The work below compares CdTe and CIGS modules, discusses the appropriate balance of system components, outlines a potential location in Belize, and shows project costs, risks, and financing analyses.

http://www.detronics.net/wind_solar.pdf

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Expertise is required in several other areas. The communities may give their support and justification for long term fixed power rates but can not give the required expertises. While the pre-feasibility study is able to assess project viability, give guidance to manage the project development and coordinate financing, other partners should be added to the project team. Some of the most important partners to locate will be those with the ability to provide parts/equipment, evaluate and engineer the system, and secure financing from banks and other businesses.

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Technology Analysis

3. Technological Analysis
This section evaluates what PV technologies and balance-of-system components are most appropriate in the context of this project.

3.1.

Solar Photovoltaic Equipment Options

When considering a solar photovoltaic project, it is always important to consider the available solar resource. For this project, we will be studying solar photovoltaic panels on a 2-axis tracker; trackers will be explored in Section 3.2. As shown in2, the mean daily isolation on a 2-axis tracking system in Consejo is between 4.89 to 9.50 kWh/m2.

Figure 2: This

map shows the amount of solar energy in hours, received each day on an optimally tilted surface during the worst month of the year for southern USA, Mexico, Central America and northern South America. Source: NREL. Solar photovoltaic (PV) modules can be broken into three main categories: monosilicon, polysilicon, and thin film PV. Monosilicon PV modules are the most efficient but also the most expensive. Polysilicon PV modules are slightly less efficient and less costly. Both use a large amount of silicon as the semiconductor material, however, and both are more expensive than thin film PV modules, which use very little or no silicon. Additionally, thin film PV uses diffuse light more effectively, making it more suitable than mono- or polysilicon modules for locations with fewer clear days.

https://glfc.cfsnet.nfis.org/mapserver/pv/index_e.php

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Technology Analysis

Most of the photovoltaic panels on the market are either monosilicon or polysilicon; however, thin film PV technologies have been gaining market share. For example, the growth of thin film PV in the United States is illustrated in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Thin-film PV market share in the US versus calendar year3

Due to their potential for low costs, thin film technologies are expected to continue to gain market share.4,5 Economies of scale are thus expected to lower prices further, as are advancements in the technologies themselves. This low price makes thin film technologies appealing for large scale, grid tied PV systems.6 Due to the time frame of this project 2010/11, in consultation with the gated communities and research I have been doing from past projects. I decided to focus on emerging technologies such as the two types of thin film technologies: cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium selenium (CIGS). The cost of Monocrystalline and Polycrystalline modules are not expected to drop below $5.00 a watt by 2010. CIGS solar cells and modules have achieved efficiencies of 19.5% and 13%, respectively.7 Heliovolt claims that CIGS modules are the most durable and efficient thin-film material to replace silicon for solar systems.8 However, there are concerns about the future availability and price of indium, which is a vital material for CIGS modules.

3 4

http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/Milano07ECPVSEC.pdf http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/bos_small.pdf 5 S. O'Rourke, P. Kim, and H. Polavarapu, Technology and Economics: Thin Films and Crystalline Silicon, Deutsche Bank FITT Report, 2007. 6 http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/bos_small.pdf 7 http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/wc4papernoufi__.doc 8 http://www.heliovolt.net//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23&Itemid=45

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Technology Analysis

The bandgap of CdTe is about 1.5 eV, making it particularly suitable for the conversion of sunlight into electricity. In semiconductor physics, a direct bandgap means that the minimum energy of the conduction band lies directly above the maximum energy of the valence band in momentum space.9 CdTe solar cells and modules have achieved efficiencies of 16.5% and 10.2%, respectively.10 Production costs for CdTe modules are currently lower than those for CIGS modules. There are concerns about the future availability and price of telluride, but these are not as strong as the concerns about indium. Cadmium is a byproduct of mining processes (ex. zinc mining and copper refining), and present in abundant quantities to support multi-GWs of annual production.11 While cadmium is a toxic substance, it is very safely contained within thin film PV.12 A number of companies are either developing CdTe and CIGS modules or are already in commercial production. Figure 4 gives an idea of the size of the industry.

Figure 4: Thin Film Companies13 To estimate the properties, including efficiency and size, of CdTe and CIGS modules, we researched both primary and secondary sources. Due to time restrictions, we collected limited data; company-specific data are indicated in

Table 2.14,15,16
9

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_bandgap http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/wc4papernoufi__.doc 11 http://www.firstsolar.com/company_technology.php 12 http://www.nrel.gov/pv/cdte/ 13 Joseph McCabe, private communication, 2008.


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Technology Analysis

Table 2: Data on CIGS and CdTe Modules PV Commercial Aperture Area Efficiency Company 2 Type Availibility (cm ) (%) Antec Solar CdTe -6633 7.3 No 11.5 AVA Solar CdTe -(plan for 2009) projected First Solar CdTe 2008 6623 10.2* No Ascent Solar CIGS --(plan for 2010) Global Solar CIGS 2008 8390 10.2* No similar to >=10 HelioVolt CIGS (plan for 2009) First Solar projected Showa Shell CIGS -3600 12.8 No (plan Solo Power CIGS --before 2010) Wrth Solar CIGS -6500 13
*NREL confirmed

Power (W) 52.3 -67.5* -88.9* 72 44.15 -84.6

Warranty -Competitive --2 years ~25 year -~25 year 2 years

Date 06/04 03/08 02/04 03/08 05/05 03/08 05/03 03/08 06/04

Ascent Solar17 informed me of complimentary plans to this one of their projects project. They are developing glassless modules, which will require less in terms of mounting equipment. While Ascent Solar has not yet achieved reduced balance of system (BOS) costs, they are attempting to work with tracker companies to create an innovative product to that end. Ascent Solar plans to have a 30 MW plant running by the beginning of 2010 and noted that a 520KW project was an interesting proposition. This section, however, is not aimed at selecting a particular module; rather, our goal is to estimate reasonable properties (lifetimes, efficiencies, costs, sizes,) for CdTe and CIGS modules in 2010. Lifetime Both CdTe and CIGS modules have exhibited the potential for long lifetimes. Long-term stability has been demonstrated for both technologies; however, some failures in the field have also been observed, emphasizing the critical need for understanding degradation mechanisms and packaging options.18 More than one company indicated that its warranty would be for at least 25 years (see Table 1). Hence, it is reasonable to estimate a module lifetime of 25 years. Efficiency

14 15

http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/wc4papernoufi__.doc J. Langdon, private communication, 2008. 16 J. McCabe, private communication, 2008. 17 Joseph McCabe, private communication, 2008. 18 http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/wc4papernoufi__.doc

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Technology Analysis

First Solar currently produces the highest efficiency CdTe module. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) verified the modules efficiency. Efficiencies have been increasing for quite some time. As documented by Roedern, Zweibel, and Ullal, thin film cell efficiencies have increased fairly steadily from 6-8% in 1977 to 16-19% in 200519. We presume a moderate amount of innovation will occur by 2010 to further increase the efficiency of CdTe cells, so the AVA Solar estimate of 11.5% efficiency seems appropriate. The most efficient CIGS module listed is the Wrth Solar product. The efficiency of this module has not, however, been tested by NREL, and 13% seems surprisingly high, especially given that this efficiency was reported in 2004. Based on this information, we will estimate that CIGS modules will be 13% efficient in 2010. This is in reasonable agreement with the predictions made by the Prometheus Institute, which estimates that CIGS module efficiency will range from 10-12% in 201020. These efficiencies must be modified to take possible degradation into account. While CdTe and CIGS are less likely to degrade than traditional crystalline polysilicon modules, degradation is still possible due to water ingress and damage to or aging of the transparent membrane, typically glass or plastic.21 If we assume the modules degrade 0.1% annually, the average efficiency over 25 years will be 11.36% and 12.85% for CdTe and CIGS, respectively. Price Thin film PV prices are expected to fall as innovations occur within the production process. Table 2 indicates the pricing in 2006, assuming a 40% markup from the cost of production.22
Table 3: Module Pricing Module Type CdTe CIGS
a

Price in 2006 (USD/W) $3.01 $2.10 (projected)

This assumes ~25 MWp/yr steady state production (which only existed for CdTe in 2006); for CIGS this is a projection.

Nanosolar claims to be able to offer CIGS modules for $1/W in USD. These modules, however, are in high demand, making it dangerous to rely on this pricing.23 Anil Sethi, the CEO of Flisom, foresees their CIGS modules falling to $0.80/W and $0.50/W by 2012 and 2017, respectively, in USD.24 Combined with the information in Table 2, extrapolating the costs leads to a price of $1.35 USD/$2.70 BZD in 2010. This is a 55% fall from the 2006 values above.

19 20

http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/projected_cis_cdte_costs_ieee05.doc http://www.greentechmedia.com/assets/pdfs/executivesummaries/Manufacturers_2007_Exec_Summpdf.pdf 21 http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/wc4papernoufi__.doc 22 http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/tranciklearningcurve_wcpec2006.pdf 23 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/technology/18solar.html 24 http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/02/thinfilm-solar-clobbering-oil.php

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Technology Analysis

Figure 5: CIGS Module Price Over Time (No Inflation)

If we presume that CdTe modules will fall at least 45% over the same timeframe, their price will be $1.16 in USD in 2010. Comparing these to the projections of the Prometheus Institute, these prices seem a bit low (Table 4).
Table 4: Prometheus Institute Projections for Module Cost and Pricing in USD 25 2006 2010 Module Type Cost Price Cost Price Cost CdTe CIGS $1.50 $1.50 $2.50 $2.50 $0.80 $1.00 $1.50 $1.75 $0.65 $0.80 2015 Price $1.25 $1.33

Due to the limitations on our data, we are not confident that our numbers are significantly more robust than those in Table 5. To take this into account, we will average our initial estimates with the Prometheus Institute forecast. This yields a 2010 price of $1.33 USD for CdTe modules and $1.55 USD/$3.10 BZD for CIGS modules. Panel Size To estimate the module size for shipping purposes, Wurth Solar CIGS modules will be used. For the purposes of system design, including the determination of how many trackers are available, the RETScreen estimate will be used. With CdTe modules, it is estimated that 4000 square meters of modules will be required to form a 520KW system. With CIGS modules, it is estimated that 4000 square meters of modules will be required. This leads to power densities of 113.6 W/m2 and 128.5 W/m2, respectively, for CdTe and CIGS modules.

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http://www.greentechmedia.com/assets/pdfs/executivesummaries/Manufacturers_2007_Exec_Summpdf.pdf

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Technology Analysis

Averaging the area of the three CIGS modules in

Table 2 for which sizes are listed, we find that an average CIGS panel is 0.58 m2. Combined with the power density, this leads to a rating of 75 W. This implies that 6934 CIGS modules would be required for the 520KW project. Summary and Module Selection The following table summarizes the values we expect the CdTe and CIGS modules to possess in 2010. We assume that the US dollar and the Canadian dollar will hold equal value in 2010 for this project. It is anticipated the modules will be purchased in Can/US to avoid European shipping costs.
Table 5: Projected Module Properties in 2010 Module Type Average Efficiency CdTe 11.36% CIGS 12.85% Module Rating (W) 65 75 Size (cm ) 7,200 5,825
2

Price (CAD) $1.33 $1.55

We assumed that it would not be difficult to find very a large lot of land for this project at a low cost or even no cost for land owned by project proponent. Tracker costs were estimated to be around $350.00 USD/$700.00 BZD per square meter, the efficiencies and costs were varied according to Table 4, and all other values were held constant. These models indicate that the CIGS modules are ultimately more cost effective, so we will use CIGS modules. Financial summaries from the CdTe and CIGS models are included below; in these models, a cost of $350.00 USD/$700 BZD per square meter of tracker was assumed.
Table 6: Preliminary RETScreen Model Results: CIGS More Cost Effective Financial Parameter Unit CdTe CIGS IRR and ROI % 33.4% 30.3% Simple Payback yr 33.4% 30.3% Year-to-positive cash flow yr 10.6 7.0 Net Present Value - NPV $ 3.4 5.4 Annual Life Cycle Savings $ 1,273,016 892,956 Benefit-Cost (B-C) ratio 129,601 97,820

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Technology Analysis

3.2.

Balance of System Options


3.1.1.

Module Support Structure

Solar photovoltaic (PV) modules can be mounted in a variety of ways. They can be fixed at a given azimuth and elevation or can be in motion to better follow the ecliptic path of the sun. A tracker is a device supporting the PV array that moves the modules in a prescribed way to minimize the angle of incidence of beam radiation on the module surfaces.26 To achieve the maximum output, the PV array can be tracking on one-axis, two-axis (Azimuth tracking) or dualaxis Azimuth.

Figure 6: Module Support Options

The azimuth is the angle clockwise from true north of the direction that the PV array faces (0 or 360 = North, 180 = South). Increasing the azimuth angle favours afternoon energy production, while decreasing the azimuth angle favours morning energy production.27 The two Axis tracking method is able to maximize the array output, , giving 30-40% more power than a fixed array.28 In order to maximize the output of photovoltaic arrays, dual-axis trackers are used for this purpose. Dual-Axis Tracker Systems Single Pole Mount Pole mounts are a steel or aluminium rack and rail systems bolted or welded to a large sleeve that is affixed to the top of a pole with set bolts. The pole is set in the ground in a concrete footing or foundation. Pole mounted dual-axis trackers mimic the motion of sunflowers. Figure 8 illustrates an example of a single pole mount tracker from Wattsun29. The Wattsun trackers use a dual-axis option Gear Drive that automatically tracks the sun by rotating the PV array about the
26

RETScreen International, Clean Energy Decision Support Centre, RETScreen Software Online User Manual, Natural Resource Canada, 2005 27 http://www.nwcommunityenergy.org/solar/siting-and-system-design/pv-system-design 28 http://www.windandsun.co.uk/solar_trackers.htm 29 http://www.wattsun.com/

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Technology Analysis

pipe mast. Its moving parts are located at the top of the pole, sheltered by the array. Other suppliers might include moving parts at the base of the pole. The surface area that these trackers can support may vary by make or model and can vary from a couple of square meters to 40 m2.

Figure 7: Single Pole Mounted PV Panel

V shape support As seen in figure 8, the V Shape support can bear a greater surface than the single pole mount support. This ETmeca Tracker 10 from ET solar30 features a cylindrical 7.5 m3 footing, a V shape support structure and an electromechanical gear dual-axis tracking system. Some moving parts are located at the base. Due to potential water accumulation at the base, this structure could present challenges for the Corozal region. Depending on the model, this type of tracker can support a surface area in the upward of 85 m2.

Figure 8: V Shape Support

Four Legged Support Structure The SOLRAC HT-101 featured in this picture by Hispanotracker31 stands out over conventional tracking systems. The motion of the dual-axis PV array relies on a hydraulic system, rather than gears. The HT-101 is supported by a square structure, letting its weight lay in four fixed points and displacing its efforts over a wider surface at the base. The structure sits on 4 concrete piles which minimizes the foundation work. Pilings will be $750.00 USD or 1500.00 BZD ea..32 The tracker has an expected lifespan of 40 years. This type of tracker can support a surface area greater than 100 m2.
30 31

http://www.etsolar.com/en/default.html http://www.hispanotracker.com/index.php?lang=english 32 Bob Morrish Construction Belize

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Technology Analysis

Figure 9: Four Legged Tracker

Five Ground Support Structure This Dobontech Tetra-track M0433, in this figure, also qualifies as dual-axis (tilt and roll) tracker. It offers five ground support points. The tilt action is enabled by three telescopic actuators. It follows the suns ecliptic via a solar sensor and pyranometer. The surface area that these trackers can support may vary by model and can range from 4 m2 to 64 m2.

Figure 10: Five Ground Tracker

Other types of Support Structures Other tracker makes and models derive from the previous four designs to create a wide range of dual-axis tracker possibilities. This Titan Tracker34 demonstrates a different design approach to dual-axis tracking systems. Holding 2 arrays, the 125-211 ATR model is capable of supporting a surface area equivalent to 211 m2. The unique attribute this structure offers is two rolling supports (from a 5 point support) located on a circumference base. For the Corozal region, however, water accumulation could present challenges to the rolling supports, making this a less viable option for this project. A Large dry area would have to be selected.

33 34

http://www.dobontech.com/ http://www.titantracker.es/index_en.html

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Technology Analysis

Figure 11: Titan Tracker

Tracking (Motion) Options Tracking is achieved using three basic methods: sensor based tracking, algorithm tracking (calendar + position + isolation data) or passive mode tracking. These devices often accompany the trackers and closer consideration should be made after selecting the tracker system. Aim in Selecting a Tracking System: Highly efficient Low Cost Ability to resist wind Able to function in cold temperatures Able to function with snow (Snow loads)

Figure 12: Selected Tracker Structure

The SOLRAC HT-101 from Hispanotracker 35 is worth considering, as this dual-axis tracker design offers simplicity and quality. It moves using 2 hydraulic cylinders accompanied by shock absorbers in the actuators. Consequently, when the wind picks up, different stresses are absorbed by the hydraulic cylinders, thus preventing damaging resonance on the structure.

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http://www.hispanotracker.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7&Itemid=8

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Technology Analysis

Another advantage of this dual-axis tracker is that it does not rely on cogged rim gears to follow the sun. Over time cogged rim gears suffer because of wind vibrations. Replacement of these gears increases the operation and maintenance costs and adds to the system down time. All components of this tracker are readily available in the market and replacing parts should not require too much effort. This translates into lower maintenance over the span of the trackers life.

Figure 13: SOLRAC No Cogged Rim Gears

In comparison to the single pole mounting structure, the parts does not have a single mast transferring efforts to the ground on a small surface. The four legged structure distributes the load and stresses with greater efficiency (on a greater surface) and typically requires less civil work and concrete, thus creating additional cost savings. As seen in Figure 13, the tracker can be easily transported. This image shows the transportation of 8 units onto a 40-foot truck flat bed.

Figure 14: Eight Units Fit on a 40-Foot Truck

Maintenance is not escapable. This might include greasing and general visual inspections at given periods throughout the year. Other characteristics include: Approximate weight (without panels: 3800 kg Maximum panel surface: 100 m2 Height from the panels to the ground (night position): 6 m Tracking type: astronomical calculation control PLC Recommended space for tracker: 600 m2 Able to resist winds of 100 m/h or more No exposed moving parts/Parts may be manufactured locally in Belize

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Technology Analysis

Cost Assumption Cement, rebar, galvanized tubular steel, mechanical pivot components, hydraulic cylinders, wiring, and other hardware are the main components of this structure. The developing team will attempt to replicate the structure in Belize as these structures resemble derricks commonly seen in the Canadian oil field (these derricks are mostly made in Canada). Obtaining a paper /autocad copy of the design and replicating it in Belize through Habitat for Humanity will save significant costs. This will save us transportation costs from Spain and bring greater skill in subtripicalizing the structure as it will be made in Belize for Belizean climate. The budget allocated per tracker is estimated at $65,000 per tracker (including installation). As per our calculations, about 40 trackers are required for the 500KW PV energy generation plant. Land Required With the maximum panel surface of 100 m2 per tracker and the minimum area of 600 m2 required per tracker, supporting 4000 m2 of panels requires 24,000 m2 of land (5.9 Acres). Technical This pre-feasibility study explores areas of concerns and attempts to scrutinize the greatest concerns before entering the feasibility stage. Other aspects concerning the trackers, such as technical issues of mounting the PV modules, connecting of PV modules and others technicalities are further explored in the Technical Analysis section. 3.1.2.

Power Conditioning Equipment

An inverter converts DC (direct current), which attenuates quickly over long distances, into AC (alternating current), which can be fed into the grid. Types of Inverters There are two main types of inverters available on the market. Modified sine wave inverters were the earliest type of inverter introduced to the market. These inverters produce AC power, but do not achieve this perfectly. Many devices will not work properly when powered by a modified sine wave inverter. Pure sine wave inverters, aka true sine wave inverters, produce a perfect replica of AC power. These inverters are more appropriate for grid-connected use. Grid-tie inverters work much the same as any inverter but with one main difference. Grid-tie inverters must ensure that the power supplied will be in phase with the grid power. This allows renewable energy (wind, solar, etc.) generation plant owners to sell power to the utility.

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Technology Analysis

Inverters work by taking the DC voltage from the source, such as solar panels or micro hydroelectric generators, and 'chopping' by turning it on and off at 60 Hz using a local oscillator and a power transistor. This 60 Hz chopped DC is then filtered to make it into a sine wave (removing the upper 3,5,7 harmonics that make up the square wave).36 Then the square wave is applied to a transformer to increase the voltage to 120 or 240 V.

Figure 15: Sine, Square, and Saw Tooth Waves

Large Inverters Two inverters in use today or with firm production dates were considered. The manufacturers of these inverters were able to provide more accurate figures, rather than forecasts. The Chinese company BYEC (Beijing Yanjing Electronics Co., Ltd.)37 makes a 500 kW inverter. This company boasts $15 million is sales, which inspires a certain amount of confidence in their product. Their inverter is robust but only has an efficiency of 94%.

36 37

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_wave http://byec.en.alibaba.com/product/50382086/51831663/Photovoltaic_equipment_product/Grid_Connected_Invert er_1KW_500KW_.html

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Figure 16: BYEC Inverter Alibaba.com

BYEC Inverter Product Description 1. DSP controller 2. Mitsubishi IPM Module inside 3. MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking) technology 4. High efficiency up to 94% 5. Perfect protect functions include anti-islanding 6. Quick and easy installation 7. A LCD display for monitoring all system information 8. Can set the operation parameters via LCD and keys 9. Suit to connecting with small wind turbine 10. CE Certificate The Xantrex GT500 needs to be also considered for this project. The North American debut of this product will occur in August of 2008. It is rated at 500 kW and boasts a 97% efficiency. This is superior to the BYEC inverter. The Xantrex was more desirable than the AES-G1000 as it has additional monitoring and maintenance features that the AES-G1000 does not. Furthermore, the Xantex inverter will be produced in Canada, greatly reducing shipping and potential maintenance issues that would be encountered with either the BYEC or AES-G1000 inverters. As a result, the Xantrex GT500 needs another hard look at once this projects production dates are known. Xantrex is well positioned for the Canadian market. The company installed the first residential solar inverter under Ontario's Standard Offer incentive program38. Xantrex is well established,

38

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/story?id=49752

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with dealers, maintenance professionals, and parts distributors in place throughout North\Central America. This proven technology for large PV installations has been very successful in Europe. In Germany, eleven 500 kilowatt (kW) Xantrex GT500E inverters, specially designed to optimize the performance of thin-film technology, were installed to efficiently convert DC power from solar modules into high-quality AC electricity for delivery to the electrical grid. The plant will produce approximately 5.7 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) of solar electricity annually, enough to power approximately 1,900 households. The clean energy produced by the solar plant will eliminate 3,750 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) that would otherwise be emitted into the atmosphere.39 The Xantrex GT500E Grid Tie Inverter is based on a reliable platform used in grid-connected photovoltaic and wind turbine applications in North America and Europe. With the debut of a North American version, the role of Xantrex in the global market for large inverters will grow. Installation and operation are relatively simple; the unit has automatic start up and shut down. The GT500 will incorporate advanced Maximum Power Point Tracking Technology (MPPTT) to maximize the energy harvested from the PV array. To minimize power losses during the conversion process, the inverters switching technology uses insulated gate bi-polar transistors. In Europe, multiple inverters have been connected in parallel for large power installations. The parallel combination allows the inverters to act as a 1 MW inverter. For this project, 20 inverters would be connected in parallel. J.P. Cooperman from Xantrex has informed us that 1 GT500 inverters will cost $125,000 each.

Figure 17: Xantrex GT500 Inverter

39

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/story?id=48658

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Xantrex Features40 Digital Signal Processor (DSP) based controls with self-diagnostics and LCD for display of operating status Inverter shut off and disconnects Over- and under-voltage and frequency protection, shutting down the inverter Anti-islanding protection - prevents back-feeding inverter-generated power to the grid in the event of a utility outage User definable power tracking allows the user to match the inverter to the array, as well as to adjust delay periods to customize system shutdown sequences Graphical user interface software for real time communications, monitoring, and control Remote monitoring via telephone modem or web server Faults notification via modem Data acquisition and logging Isolation protection DC and AC over voltage protection BYECs inverter is robust but only has an efficiency of 94% when compared to Xantrexs 97% and SunEnergys 96%. Dropping from 97% to 94% in this project would be the loss of 607KWh over a 12 month period.

40

http://www.xantrex.com/web/id/150/p/1/pt/23/product.asp

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Technical Analysis

4. Technical Analysis
The following Technical Analysis will examine the available solar resource, as well as the project site and climate conditions. In particular, we will focus on issues specific to the project site, such as the interconnection point to the local grid and equipment transportation to the site.

4.1.

Solar Resources

The solar resource for Belize is estimated to be in the 200 to 210 W m2 ranges and a small yearly variation, as illustrated below.
Figure 18

The following is a world map indicating solar isolation.

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Technical Analysis

Figure 19: Averaged Solar Radiation 1990-200441

As the table below indicates, in Consejo the annual radiation incident on a horizontal surface is 5 to 5.5 MWh/m2/yr. combined with the map above, this illustrates that the resource in Belize is double than that of Germany, which receives 80 - 110 W/m2. and still better than Southern France and Northern Italy.

41

http://www.soda-is.com/img/carte_Ed_13_world.pdf

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Technical Analysis

Figure 20: Solar Radiation in Belize42

Water Albedo Water is highly reflective; The albedo for water varies from a few percent to 90% depending on the angle of the incoming solar radiation Sunlight will thus reflect off of the water and strike the PV modules; we will refer to this light as the reflected component. The reflected component could potentially have a significant effect on the system output between June and Mid November, inclusive, period during which low areas in the Corozal district can be covered with a thin layer of water. The magnitude of the effect will depend upon the magnitude of the reflected component, which in turn will depend upon the angle of the sun and the modules. Specifically, the reflected component can be represented as a percentage of the irradiation falling upon a horizontal surface, as expressed by the following graph43:
42

NREL The albedo of water with low (A) and high (B) Sun elevations. Author: Sebastian Wypych, Mateusz Kaminski.

43

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In Belize it does not tend to rain lightly but rather down pours quite large amounts for short periods of time. This usually occurs in the nighttimes, water is seen fairly heavy in low lying areas in the daytime after a good down pour. Morning albedo will be strongest.
Figure 21

Sun inclination water albedo (%)

1 89.6

5 58.6

10 35.0

20 13.6

30 6.2

40 3.5

50 2.5

Although the reflectivity of water is very low at high and medium angles of incident light, it increases tremendously at small angles of incident light such as occur on the illuminated side of the earth near the terminator (early morning, late afternoon and near the poles). Figure 20 Water reflectivity angles

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Technical Analysis

Figure 22 Water Reflectivity 44

4.2.

Site Analysis

Site Selection Criteria Belize is located on the Central American mainland, forming part of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is bounded on the North by Mexico, South and West by Guatemala and East by the Caribbean Sea. The total land area is 22,960 sq km or 8,867 sq miles of which 95% is located on the mainland, and 5% is distributed among more than 1,060 islands. The country enjoys sub-tropical climate with average temperatures between 70 to 85F. Two sites were investigated for this study. Both contained some new jungle coverage. Other areas were looked at but most were too tree covered, with poor services (e.g. roads, no roads and hydro connections) and would have required substantial investment to clear them. However in addition to this, these sites are not in the best interest of the stakeholders to promote a solar photovoltaic project as environmentally friendly when cutting down many trees, destroying natural habitats and clearing large sections of land for solar installation. The place chosen had the majority of the land prior cleared and was a road side with no agricultural land.
Figure 23 Location of Belize in Caribbean

44

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Water_reflectivity.jpg

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Chosen Site The solar site we selected is along the road from Consejo to the gated communities of Buccaneer Bay, Wagners Landing and Mayan Seaside along the right side of the road. There is currently 50+ acres of land available from Art Higgins of Mayan Seaside with 2200 feet of road frontage. Should the Federal Government wish to enter in to this project crown land may become available. The owner of Mayan Seaside Mr Art Higgins is quoted as saying There is a great need for an affordable alternative from grid power, not necessarily less expensive, but reasonable. In addition he has been an active supplier of information to the project and made his land available. Downtown Consejo is only 1/2 km from the Array and 18 km the city of Corozal. The solar site would be located on the eastern side of this northern road yellow area below Consejo Road. See figure 22 below.
Figure 24 Corozal District view of Solar Array

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Technical Analysis

The following tables will assist with the impact analysis of the Consejo weather conditions.

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Technical Analysis

Table 7: Days with Wind Speed45

45

http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/76750/2007/5/4/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA &req_statename=NA

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Table 10 Belize Rainfall

The average annual rainfall in Consejo is under 70 cm. significant downpours of up to 15 cm at a time can clean solar arrays like a power washer. Between the rain and the axis movement less labour will be required keep the arrays free from jungle debris and operating at peak efficiency. In conclusion, if the arrays use a 2-axis tracker and are 1.5 metres above ground level, foliage should not be a maintenance issue if regularly done.
Table 8: Wind Speed

The wind statistics data point out that the area is by and large not exposed to strong average winds or strong gusts; 129 km maximum wind gust are not problematic to solar arrays if the proper trackers are used that incorporate wind protection designs46. The wind comes fairly consistently from the east in the winter months and the east in the summer months. Strong gusts of wind seem to occur most often when it originates from the northeast, although some old timers in the area believe that east winds bring severe weather and winds. Data indicates a very low probability that the Consejo may experience stronger winds. Global warming and climate change may decrease the chance of high winds that could damage the panels, but this is speculative. Hurricanes are another matter. The area was recently hit with hurricane Dean (CAT 5) in with very little damage structural damage, but foliage was greatly tossed about. In the case of the PV arrays, they can be covered from flying debris and lowered if recommended by the manufacture. Further study is recommended in this area during the fabrication of the trackers. Some PV trackers (e.g. Soltec) are designed to withstand winds of up to 160 km/h (100 mph). It would be possible to design/adapt support structures so that the panels could be optimally protected. For example, if the supporting pole structure could be turned such that the panels were parallel to the wind in a vertical position or lowered such that the panels were in a horizontal position close to ground level, the panels would experience less stress from the force of high winds. Another possibility includes building the edge of the arrays with a custom lip to hold
46

Source: The Weather Network Statistics (www.theweathernetwork.com)

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fitted plywood over the structure, which could be fastened in place before a storm was anticipated. However, a versatile tracker with weather protection capabilities will require the least amount of maintenance/physical repairs and will be most economical to handle any extreme wind or weather conditions. With this system in place, the insurance for the solar system should be less expensive. Land Description The solar site area is surrounded by both poor and good quality jungle areas, below average agricultural land, some sparse housing (none in view), and abandoned airport. Driving straight north (directly up in this case) in figure 23 you will see the yellow bar on the right. This is the location of the 520KWh array. There are no published maps of this area. Google Earth is 6 years out of date. When BEL placed their high voltage lines up this road, they put the lines to the gated communities down the centre of the road for ease of installation. As a result the roads had to be redone and widened. The foliage on the right side of the road is scraggly and when removed, can be replaced with local plants that are more eco friendly. The area in blue is private and can not be used but is for sale. Green is town limits. Yellow is the developer Art Higgins.

Figure 25 Consejo

There is approximately 50 acres of below average jungle land available with excellent southern exposure. Foliage is not high. The north and east is tree covered and extends across the property.

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Technical Analysis

Almost no traffic travels along the Consejo Road. Most vehicles that do travel there use the road to gain access to the gated communities and only live their seasonal. It was observed, however, that people travel up the Road to walk their dogs. The area has a very isolated quality, despite its proximity to Casino, Gaming and Slots, establishment nearby. Many of the scrub trees must be removed to avoid shading of the solar modules. An expert in tree and brush removal would be required to estimate the amount of wood that could be harvested as logs, used as firewood, and shredded for use in bio-fuel production. The Mennonite community, as an ideal partner in this venture, would have the necessary manpower and machinery to complete this work. Gardeners have been budgeted to keep the area beautified. A high tensile (believed to be 500 kV capable still confirming) transmission line runs along the west edge of the property. This site would allow for economies of scale to be fully utilized for this project. However, a sub-station may be required on the site. In situating the solar arrays, the east bush must be taken into consideration. There are approximately 5 acres which should hold the majority of the solar modules. The amount of the east bush that will be required depends on the trackers used and the amount of space between trackers. For example, the space between trackers could be increased to allow the land below the arrays to be used for shade-friendly agricultural crops. Solar PV Array Site There are approximately 5+ acres of land available for the solar arrays, and 45 acres remain in an excellent location. There are no buildings and there is no reason to create a building or a parking lot at this remote site, so roof mounted PV and canopy PV structures are not a viable option. This site is better suited to ground mounted PV arrays. First, we must establish the net surface area for the PV footprint. The Ground Cover Ratio (GCR) is the ratio of the array size to the ground area required to install the arrays without shading. An industry rule of thumb is to allow a GCR of 0.5 for a fixed array, 0.35 for a 1-axis array and 0.2 for a dual-axis array. Given these general guidelines, a PV system similar to the one recommended (thin film modules mounted on a two axis tracker) that was installed on 5 acres of land could be larger than 520KW. The Dryden Report stated, Joe Bourg works directly with the manufacturer of both the singleaxis and 2-axis trackers and obtained the specifications from them. Based on his experience, the difference in space used really comes down to the type of dual-axis tracker utilized. Some dualaxis trackers are mounted in large array configurations with separate actuators for east/west and tilt tracking. These dual-axis trackers require more space than single-axis tracking. However, based on the manufacturer specifications, the single pole-mounted dual-axis trackers can be

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Technical Analysis

spaced closer together and still avoids shading. So in the end dual actuator large array dual-axis trackers take up more space, but not so much for pole-mounted trackers. 47 Pole-mounted trackers are significantly more expensive, costing up to 2 or 3 times more than fixed support for ground base installations. The initial cost, however, may be offset by life cycle savings in reduced field maintenance costs (e.g. little or no leaf removal is required which can be significant in the tropics). For additional details on tracker selection, see Section 3.
Figure 26 Proposed Array

Estimate of area required If we utilize the GCR for a dual axis tracker, we will require 1 m2 of ground area for every 0.2 m2 of panels. The selected tracker can accommodate 100 m2 of solar modules, so each tracker would require 500 m2 of ground space. The manufacturer, however, suggested using 600 m2 (24.5 m x 24.5 m) of ground space for each tracker, and we want to leave enough space for the water albedo to increase the solar array output, so we have increased the area per tracker to 750 m2 (24.5 m x 30.6 m). Hence, we will use a GCR of 0.133. Since we have selected a 500 kW inverter, the layout of each array for this project is based on a assembly building block of 500 kW after losses. The 75 W modules are 0.58 m2, so each 500 kW array will require 3,891 m2 of modules, which in turn will require 39 trackers. The total area per tracker would be 750 m2, implying that the total area per 500 kW array would be 29,250 m2. Judging by this new computation we will need 7.22 acres to satisfy our array vice the 5 originally predicted.

47

Source: GPEKS Dryden Report, January 2008

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Technical Analysis

Connection to the Grid This is an above average site for access to transmission lines. There is a high tensile wire across the street from the location that was installed by Art Higgins and Ray Wagner (ex Canadian Sergeant). However, there are no transmission stations or distribution stations within 5 miles of the location. The line does not cross the property. Belize currently has 3 grids all mostly in the north. An 115KV, 34.5KV and a 22 KV grid with the distribution lines ranging in the 6.6KV to 34.5KV range. It is believed the new lines up the Consejo road are of the size we require, since long term foresight should have been involved. If not it will be BEL responsibility. Connecting to the grid will not be an issue. In fact, this site has the potential to expand beyond 520KW, and future projects can make additional connections to the transmission lines if necessary. Large power consuming homes will continue to be constructed in the Consejo area, as the influx of foreign baby boomers come to retire in the jewel of Belize. Drawn by the close proximity of the Mexican shopping and North American style stores such as Wal-Mart, demands to the grid will only increase.

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4.3.

Logistics and Equipment Procurements

With equipment coming from both the US and Canada, we must consider the role of shipping. Modules As mentioned earlier, to estimate the module size for shipping purposes, Wurth Solar CIGS modules will be used.48 The 80 W CIGS modules are 60.5 x 120.5 x 3.5 cm, and weigh 12.7 kg. It will require 6,500 modules to create a 520KW system. Adding an extra 15% to the volume and 5% to the weight for packaging materials, the entire PV shipment will be 191 m3 and 86,677.5 kg (626.64 ft3 and 191,091 lbs). We shall assume that the modules originate from their North American distributor in Northern California, roughly 2,900 miles away. In the US, there is a maximum weight limit of 80,000 lbs per truck, which means that 3 trucks will be required.49 Estimating a rate of $2/mile/truck50, the PV module shipping comes to $17,400 USD/$34,800 BZD. Module Support Structure As described earlier, about 40 trackers are required for the 520 KPV energy generation plant. About four 40 foot flatbed trucks are required to transporting these trackers at an estimated cost of $23,200USD/$46,400 BZD. The figures drawn in this section are assumptions and are subject to change. This figure may be reduced to nil if the trackers can be manufactured locally. Inverters The cost of shipping the 20 Xantrex GT500 inverters in one large Sea Container from BC to Belize City then Consejo is about $20,000 USD/$40,000 BZD. This includes all packaging and specialty tools required for unloading.

48 49

http://www.wuerth-solar.de/website/frames.php?parLANG=EN&parKAT=265 http://vsw.fhwa.dot.gov/qa/qa.jsp?category=23%20CFR%20658.17#S0-101 50 http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/documents/bts.pdf

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Institutional Analysis

5. Institutional Analysis
This section investigates the following key areas: Local/Public Approval, Permits and Codes Belize Aviation Authorities Local electricity distributor company District Permits and Codes Belize Permits and Codes Electrical Regulations

5.1.

Local/Public Approval, Permits and Codes

Belize Electricity Limited (BEL) is Belizes sole northern commercial transmitter and reseller of electric current. The corporation is owned by Fortis Incorporated of Canada (67%), Social Security Board (25%) and various small shareholders (8%). Current licensing agreements put them as the sole controlling agency till 2015. BELs northern grid currently serves the Northern Districts, including the off shore community of San Pedro. One exception to the rule is Earth Tech ( a small operator) who solely provides to the Corozal Free Zone. All searches in the Corozal District and City of Corozal did not result in the location of any energy strategy. Some developers have reported that proximity concerns can result in significant roadblocks. Listening and responding to community concerns as early as possible can help avoid conflict, delays and increased cost at later stages. Community open-houses, door-todoor visits with neighbours and group visits to existing similar facilities can build goodwill and contribute to greater community acceptance of a proposed project. Once the site has been chosen and the overall layout of the project determined, interaction with the community as mentioned can strengthen public approval of the proposed project. Renewable energy electricity generation projects require Government approval and licensing if they generate more than 75Kwh only. Without a licence they will not be allowed to operate.51 Civil Aviation Authority The Consejo Airport mile to the west does not seem to be in operation any longer, but a quick review of rules and regulations for anyone constructing an obstruction of any sort that would affect the regional Civil Aviation Authority should be considered. This would include height, intensity of flashing lights, flight visibility and the visual impact to which the obstruction will have on the local area. In the case of a 520KW PV generating plant, being in proximity of an airport, further considerations must be made in evaluating the sun glare the modules could produce, whether sufficient markings and lighting should be provided to ensure that the extent of
51

Pg 33 Energy for Sustainable Development Toward a National Energy Strategy for Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic Nov 5 2003

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the PV generating plant is defined with adequate visual warning from any normal angle for aircraft approach. Aviation Regulations set of regulatory requirements to ensure the safety and competitiveness of the aviation industry. Amends specifically targeting projects proposed in this work can not be found, however other relating characteristics, issues are restrictions have been made surrounding civil aviation. An obstacle limitation surface establishes the limits to which objects may project into the airspace associated with an aerodrome yet assure that aircraft operations at the aerodrome will be conducted safely. It includes a takeoff surface, an approach surface, a transitional surface and an outer surface. 52

Figure 27: Aircraft Approach

52

http://www.tc.gc.ca/CivilAviation/publications/tp14371/AGA/4-0.htm

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An Airport Zoning Regulation is a regulation respecting a given airport pursuant to section 5. of the Aeronautics Act for the purposes of: (a) preventing lands adjacent to or in the vicinity of a TC airport or airport site from being used or developed in a manner that is, in the opinion of the Minister, incompatible with the operation of an airport; (b) preventing lands adjacent to or in the vicinity of an airport or airport site from being used or developed in a manner that is, in the opinion of the Minister, incompatible with the safe operation of an airport or aircraft; and (c) preventing lands adjacent to or in the vicinity of facilities used to provide services relating to aeronautics from being used or developed in a manner that would, in the opinion of the Minister, cause interference with signals or communications to and from aircraft or to and from those facilities.53 Local Electricity Distributor Company (LDC) Belize Electrical Limited is the electricity distribution company serving the Consejo/Corozal area. BEL supports the programs for renewable generation and assists projects by facilitating their connection to the grid. BEL addresses many issues concerning distribution connections for renewable generation.

53

http://www.tc.gc.ca/CivilAviation/publications/tp14371/AGA/4-0.htm

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5.2.

District Permits and Codes

Corozal District Very little building codes and permits were located. No special buy back programs have been found. No grants transferable from U.S. or Canada have been located. Research could not find a coordinating authority, regulatory organization or Ministry with controlling authority over the whole energy industry. The greatest barrier to the project may be the lack of a barrier, i.e. the lack or a National Energy Policy. What was discovered can be summed up in a simulated project below: Typical Large project Belize.54 No: 1 Procedure Time to complete: 2 days 22 days 1 day 1 day 2 days 1 day 7 days 1 day 14 days 1 day 14 days Cost to Cost to complete: complete: USD 15 BZD 30 USD 335 no charge no charge no charge no charge USD 50 no charge USD 25 USD 225 USD 25 BZD 670 no charge no charge no charge no charge BZD 100 no charge BZD 50 BZD 450 BZD 50

Obtain a lot plan Request building permit from the Central 2 Building Authority 3 Receive foundation inspection 4 Receive City Council inspection 5 Obtain occupancy permit 6 Receive electricity inspection 7 Obtain electricity connection 8 Install electricity connection 9 Obtain water connection 10 Install water connection 11 Obtain fixed telephone line

Obtain a Plot Plan: The property title should include a lot plan. Otherwise, it can be obtained from the Lands Department. In about 30% of cases, the Lands Department will not have the lot plan in its records. In these cases, the construction company can hire a surveyor to draw up a new plan. This would take 23 weeks to complete and cost 250- 350 USD/500700 BZD. Request Building Permit: To obtain a building permit, Mayan Seaside must submit to the Central Building Authority an application form with the required fees and documents (see below). Depending on the location, an environmental compliance plan may be required. Other approving agencies would be the health and fire departments. Because they are a part of the committee, this is a one-stop approval process. During construction, an inspector visits the site at least four times to ensure that the structure corresponds to the agreed plans. With the application, Mayan Seaside must submit the processing fee and three sets of plans, four site plans, and four location plans.
54

http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreTopics/DealingLicenses/Details.aspx?economyid=21

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The plans should include a drawing to scale, showing the plot boundaries in relation to adjoining roads, alleys, footpaths, and the position of any proposed building(s) on the same lot. Other information that should be included, Also to be submitted with the application are complete plans of all water-retaining structures with reinforced concrete detail, where used. These and other plans are required by the regulations under the Belize City Building Act, Chapter 131 and 40 of the Public Health Act (revised edition 2000). The city engineer must be informed of the start date of the above work. Once the City Council receives the plans, it sends them to the engineering department. The engineering department then sends the plans to the Ministry of Housing, which returns them to the City Council. However, the Ministry of Housing Committee meets only once a month, and it responds to the City Council only once every 2 weeks. The council is responsible for local regulations, while the ministry administers regional regulations. Throughout the approval process, the Building Plan Committee checks that the proposed project is in compliance with zoning, environmental, and fire safety requirements. Construction must begin within 6 months of the date the building permit is issued. The permit fee covers four site visits to inspect during four different phases. Application fees and permit fees are as follows (shown in BZD only for simplicity). Residential: - Less than or equal to 1,000 sq. ft.: BZD 50 plus BZD 0.10 per sq. ft. - Over 1,000 sq. ft. BZD 100 plus BZD 0.15 per sq. ft. Commercial: - Less than or equal to 800 sq. ft.: BZD 150 plus BZD 0.20 per sq. ft. (banks, stores, restaurants, for example). - Over 800 sq. ft.: BZD 175 plus BZD 0.25 per sq. ft. (hotels, bars, supermarkets, repair shops, beauty salons, for example). Institutional: - Less than or equal to 800 sq. ft.: BZD 150 + BZD 0.25 per sq. ft. (private schools or hospitals, for example). Over 800 sq. ft.: BZD 175 plus BZD 0.30 per sq. ft. (clinics or churches, for example). There is no charge for government buildings (public schools, for example). Industrial: Less than or equal to 1,000 sq. ft.: BZD 125 plus BDZ 0.35 per sq. ft. (warehouses, garages, for example). Over 1,000 sq. ft.: BZD 150 plus BZD 0.40 per sq. ft. (factories, for example). Amenities: Swimming pool: BZD 150 plus BZD 1.00 per sq. ft. Pier: BZD 2.00 per (running) ft. Fence: BZD 0.25 per ft. Obtain electricity connection: Time to complete, 7 working days. Cost is $100.00 BZD. Name of Agency: Belize Electric Company Ltd. (BECOL)

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5.3.

Other Project Considerations

Electrical Safety Authority (ESA) Since BEL is responsible for public electrical safety in Northern Belize.55 They offer a string of services ensuring electrical projects run smoothly. They can assist with wiring inspections, inspection certificates (ensuring it meets code), plan reviews, electrical equipment approvals and addressing any concerns involving the Belize Electrical Safety Code. Environmental Renewable Energy projects are subject to an Environmental Assessment or and Environmental Screening process required by Belize's Ecosystems .56

5.4.

Government Permits and Codes

If the projects does receive federal financial incentives, applications need to be submitted to the Department of Natural Resources for federal environmental assessment and approval. Since the Project is over 75Kwh a Government Licence is required.

5.5.
Utility Rules

Electrical Regulations

The project developers will be required to: Consult with the Local Electricity Distributor Early in the planning stages, consultation with the local distribution company, Mayan Seaside, is beneficial for both parties. Discussion of plans provides preliminary information on the connection options. An explanation of the process to connect the generation facility to their system is reviewed at this stage. Apply for an Impact Assessment Application for an Impact Assessment must be carried out, which is undertaken by the local electricity distributor. They will review the specifications of the project and determine if there is available capacity in the distribution system to connect. The project developers are responsible for the cost of the Impact Assessment.

55 56

http://www.bel.com.bz/about_policy02.asp http://tropicalconservationscience.mongabay.com/content/v1/08-03-03-Young.htm

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Obtain a Meter The project may require a four quadrant meter from the distributor. Meters can cost up to $3,000 installed (this could vary slightly). BEL will review metering requirements for distributed generation. The electrical production data must be transmitted hourly, so a dedicated phone line may be required. Set Up an Account The project developers may need to set up a separate generator account with BEL. This entails a fixed monthly charge in the range of $10 to $40 per month. Get a Generator License Generating, delivering or selling electricity in Belize requires a generator license from the Federal Government. We will need to apply for a license, which typically takes 90 days to process, and pay for any applicable licensing fees. There is a one-time license application fee for electricity generators with 75KWh or more in capacity. Get a Safety Check BEL enforces the Belize Electrical Safety code. The project developers will need to contact BEL to inspect the facility and its connection to the local electricity distributors system. If approved, we will receive an inspection certificate. Sign a Connection Agreement Once all required work and approvals are complete, the project developers will sign a connection agreement with the local electricity distributor outlining the roles and responsibilities of each party. Such contracts will be mandated by BEL under the Distribution System Code. Contacts in Belize Electrical Market There has been little change in the electricity system in Belize. Electric companies are now operated as regulated businesses, rather than as municipal utilities. Much of the market, except the transmission of electricity, is now open to competition. Contact list information Belize Electrical Limited
Dawn Sampson Manager, Corporate Communications Telephone: 227-0954 Ext. 2500 E-mail: dawn.sampson@bel.com.bz

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Vonetta Burrell Public Relations Officer Telephone: 227-0954 Ext. 2501 E-mail: vonetta.burrell@bel.com.bz Diana Forman Public Relations Officer Telephone: 227-0954 Ext. 2509 E-mail: diana.forman@bel.com.bz Lands & Survey Department Commissioner - Mrs. Noreen Fairweather Telephone: +(501)822-2249 Fax: +(501)822-2083 E-mail: commissioner@ Chief Forest Officer - Mr. Wilber Sabido Telephone: +(501)822-1524 Fax: +(501)822-1523 E-mail: wilbersabido@yahoo.com fdsecretary@mnrei.gov.bz Chief Environmental Officer - Mr. Martin Alegria Telephone: +(501)822-2816 Fax: +(501)822-2862 E-mail: martinalegria@yahoo.com Meteorology Department

Ag. Chief Meteorologist - Mr. Ramon Frutos Telephone: +(501)225-2012 Fax: +(501)225-2101 E-mail: admin@hydromet.gov.bz

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Statistical Institute of Belize Chief Statistical Officer - Mr. Glenford Avilez Telephone: +(501)822-2207 Fax: +(501)822-2352 E-mail: glenjavilez@statisticsbelize.org.bz dlotiff@statisticsbelize.org.bz Financial Secretary - Mr. Joseph Waight Telephone: +(501)822-2344 Fax: +(501)822-2886 E-mail: Financial.secretary@mof.gov.bz Central Bank of Belize Gabourel Lane Belize CityEmail:

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6. Environmental Analysis 6.1. GHG Reductions Analysis

This project would offset grid-supplied electricity. The Belize electricity mix is shown in Table 9 below.
Table 9: Belize 2003 Existing and Imported Generation Capacity % of Total Fuel Type Capacity Mexican Import Hydro Diesel Bagasse Wind/Solar 50 25 20 5 .03
57

This fuel mix results in an overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factor of 0.721 tonnes of CO2 per MWh. According to the RETScreen PV User Manual, it is reasonable to assume T & D losses of 10 to 20% in modern grids in industrialised countries.58 Since this is an urban area, it is likely that we are close to the site of energy consumption, so transmission and distribution losses of 10% have been assumed.
Table 10: Base Case Belize Electricity and Greenhouse Gases CO2 CH4 N2O Fuel Fuel type emission emission emission mix factor factor factor (%) (kg/GJ) (kg/GJ) (kg/GJ) Diesel (#2 oil) 20.0% 74.1 0.0020 0.0020 Small hydro 25.0% 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 Biomass 5.0% 0.0 0.0320 0.0040 #6 oil 50.0% 77.4 0.0030 0.0020 Electricity mix Fuel conversion efficiency (%) 30.0% 100.0% 25.0% 30.0% GHG emission factor (tCO2/MWh) 0.997 0.000 0.031 1.041 0.000 0.721

T&D losses (%) 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

100.0%

198.2

0.0141

0.0061

10.0%

The proposed 520KW PV system would generate roughly 1079.46 MWh annually. Using the information in the above table, this translates to an annual offset of 778.78 tonnes CO2 per year. That is the same CO2 equivalent of driving your car 2,547,621 miles non stop.

57

. From Pg 8 Energy for Sustainable Development Toward a National Energy Strategy for Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic Nov 5 2003 58 RETScreen PV User Manual, p. 85

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6.2.

Other Environmental Aspects

There are a number of environmental concerns that a large solar PV system could mitigate beyond GHG issues and global warming concerns. There is also the potential for the PV system to cause environmental issues. Changing Local Belizean Views towards the Environment as a Whole The public in general is becoming much more aware of air pollution. This would also be amplified on the minds of anyone venturing into the wilderness for the peace and tranquility of sub-tropical retirement. The thought of operating a noisy Genset (Generator Backup) and emitting the byproducts of fossil fuel combustion into the surrounding air is not appealing. But the use of Gensets will become the norm if Belize does not keep its blackouts under control (567 unplanned blackout occurred in 2003), and its prices reasonable. While considering the negative environmental impacts associated with the use of Gensets, photovoltaic systems become very appealing. When considering the environmental impact of alternatives, the entire life cycle of the alternatives should be assessed. If benzene Gensets were installed, not only the emissions from the benzene use should be considered, but also those associated with its mining/harvesting through drilling and processing. Benzene storage and transporting great distances, also increases the environmental impact of its use as gasoline and other fossil fuels must be used in its production and delivery. Road service would need to be maintained to the emerging villages to allow large trucks containing benzene or diesel to deliver the fuel to the homes yearly or quarterly. The installation of roads would also involve tree removal and aggregate excavation in the jungle which is not favourable to the parks environmental preservation. In the 50s it was thought considered bad to throw ones glass pop bottle out the window of ones car the highway. People thought with the millions of kilometers of roads no one would notice. By the late 60s a problem was noticed and clean up by boy scouts, and prisoners and strong bottle recycling policies were in effect. The pollution was rapid; its seepage was beginning to change the eco system. Many people claimed that it already too late to repair the damage. In this case, as is the case in GHG, every person is to blame for the degradation of the environment. Each small action no matter how insignificant can add up to a catastrophe if left undisturbed. In order to stop the road side pollution, everyone had to stop and this littering became illegal. This was most preventing on the road from Corozal to Consejo, where in 2007, the garbage was removed by bulldozer. Burt, cleaned by school children and signage was posted warning of steep fines. Today the roads are clean. This is the same road being considered for the PV array. By voluntarily reducing GHG emissions, the problems generated from this type of pollution may have the possibility of being reduced with out resorting to legal action. While these actions may seem small, one should understand that releasing of GHGs causes a domino effect.

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PV Superior to Diesel Gas Power Plant Alternative Although diesel gas leads to fewer GHG emissions and other pollutants than coal, even its combustion creates criteria air contaminants and greenhouse gas emissions. The use of a diesel gas power plant may also require an unsightly tank farm to be installed. Alternatively, a pipeline could be built, which would alter the migration routes of large animals. The increased noise and vibration will impact the nearby wild and human population. Diesel leakage is also possible at a power plant, which could have a detrimental impact on the environment. By installing a solar PV system, one avoids these environmental impacts. Additional GHG Concerns PV systems have a number of environmentally positive attributes, such as a high tech image and nearly silent operation. These may be factors attractive to individuals in the area. There are, however, some minor negative environmental attributes. The PV system installation may result in GHG emissions from the shipment of the modules. Additionally, if trees are specifically cleared to allow the PV modules (and would not have been cleared otherwise within the next 20 year) to receive direct sunlight, it will result in less GHG emissions captured by trees. The fabrication of heavy duty cables, motors, and steel wind resistive structure requires some energy. Typically, this energy comes at least partially from fossil fuels, resulting in GHG emissions. If fabrication can be made locally in Belize, then less GHG will be produced through shipping. The coating on the wires and the oils in the invertors must receive proper disposal. Concrete bases should be submersed were possible below grade as to avoid the secretion of CO2.59 Using hollow structure filled with sand or gravel may also provide the same bases. Mounting the trackers to natural rock is always recommended. Environmental Concerns Associated with Thin Film PV There are environmental concerns unique to the two thin film module technologies considered in this document. CdTe modules, which were not ultimately selected for this project, make use of cadmium60, a known carcinogen. This substance will pose a hazard in mining, production and maintenance of damaged panels. Disposal will also be a factor and a WHMIS61 label system should be used. CdTe modules will have to be recycled or carefully disposed to ensure that the cadmium doesnt escape into the environment. Caution should also be used to ensure proper

59 60

http://www.concretethinker.com/Papers.aspx?DocId=312 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadmium 61 http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/ewh-semt/occup-travail/whmis-simdut/index_e.html

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disposal of the calcium within the CdTe modules. Cadmium is, however, very safely encapsulated within thin film PV62 during the lifetime of the CdTe modules. Once produced, CIGS modules are also quite safe. The manufacturing process can, however, make use of hydrogen selenide (H2Se). The CIGS absorber is deposited using several methods of flux delivery: evaporation of elements simultaneously or in a prescribed sequence, sputtering of metals followed by selenization with H2Se, reactive sputtering of metals with Se vapor, or printing of metals from ink precursors followed by selenization. H2Se is the most toxic selenium compound with an exposure limit of 0.3 ppm over an 8 hour period. During the manufacturing process, therefore, there is a risk of an accidental release of H2Se into the environment. A ZnO (Zinc oxide) layer is also applied by using the chemical-vapor deposition process. While ZnO is used in medical supplies to food, it is usually dissolved with strong acids before applied to metals. Strong acids are then disposed of and work their way to the oceans. Acids in the oceans kill sea life that absorbs CO263, accelerating the greenhouse effect.

62 63

http://www.nrel.gov/pv/cdte
http://www.tasmedia.org/node/1214

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6.3.

Social Impact Analysis

When completing a social impact analysis it is most important to consider health. Other important considerations are odour, aesthetics, vibrations, value impact on the nearby residences, and employment. Health There are no known health problems associated with photovoltaic systems, and if there are no large transmission lines overhead there will be no associated secondary spin-off health problems. On the contrary, with the introduction of photovoltaics, the electric company may have the opportunity to clean-up and modernize its infrastructure with underground lines. Odour There are no odours associated with photovoltaic systems. Aesthetics / Visual For many, photovoltaic farms convey a high tech, state of the art, wealthy, and socially conscious area. They are clean looking with vertical lines and have a warm modern look to them. If the aesthetics are not considered favourable, the solar farm can be camouflaged with the simple addition of perimeter low hedges, flowers and tracker painting. There is a large concentration of professional gardeners employed throughout Corozal District. Locals highly value green aesthetics north of the City of Corozal. Gardeners have been budgeted to maintain the arrays. In addition a profit was budgeted from flowers/fruit sales. I am sure insightful ideas will follow. Vibration Trackers move at such a slow pace that vibrations are not significant and infrequent. Due to its remote location, for the 520KW project in question, vibration is not a factor. Residence Value Impact There are no homes located near primary site which is directly east form the Consejo airport. One major gated community Mayan Seaside is the secondary site but would allow the community special privileges, since they will have voting rights over the community. Therefore, negative affects to property values will be avoided.

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Employment Renewable energy technologies are more employment intensive than fossil fuel or hydro options6465 . Many jobs will be created in the construction of the PV array. These range from the PV system designers to construction supervisors to general labour. Speciality trades, such as electricians, high power inverter specialists, trainers, safety instructors, and structural engineers will be employed on the project. In addition to initial construction jobs, long term employment is expected66, as spin off jobs are created and long term maintainers are required. Once the expertise has been introduced into the area, the chances of another PV project increases. Introducing a high-tech industry to the area introduces workers with high paid skills. It also gives surrounding smaller cities, towns and gated communities the opportunities to see the project up close, spurring their communities to consider their own PV arrays. This project has the potential to support hundreds of jobs, presuming that the manufacture of some components occurred locally (see Table 11), and if further projects of this nature are encouraged, an entire local industry could emerge.
Table 11: Indication of How Many Jobs the 10 MW Ontario PV Project Could Support Labor Cost Item Percent Cost for Labor Labor Cost USD 4,021.50 Feasibility Study 100% BZD 8,043 USD 4,438 Project management 100% BZD 8,956 USD 13,876 Engineering 100% BZD 27,752 USD 2,458,675.50 Module support structure 30% BZD 4,917,351 USD 118205.50 Inverter 30% BZD 236,411 USD BZD TOTAL 2,599,265.50 $5,198,531 358 TOTAL NUMBER OF $13,000+ JOBS SUPPORTED 358

The table below shows projected job creation in the PV industry in California. As Belize follows PV grid expansion similar to California, we expect to see similar job creation.
Table 12: California PV Job Creation67

64 65

Ibid, UNEP 2000 Pg 45 Energy for Sustainable Development Toward a National Energy Strategy for Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic Nov 5 2003 66 http://www.cansia.ca/downloads/JobCreationPotentialofSolar.pdf 67 http://www.votesolar.org/CSI_Jobs.pdf

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Table 1668: We see here that Renewable Energy Technologies continue to fall in production costs

68

http://www.indybay.org/uploads/2007/01/17/cost_curves_2002_slide1.jpg

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Renewable Energies Technology Costs, 200069

69

United Nations Development Programme, World energy assessment energy and challenges of sustainability New York: UNDP

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7. Economical Analysis 7.1. Cost Analysis

The cost of a project is composed of many different components. These components include, but are not limited to: feasibility study costs, project development, project engineering, the capital cost of the energy equipment and balance of system, contingencies, annual operations and maintenance costs and periodic costs. Belize has substantially low minimum set wages which also extend to the professional trades. Pre-Feasibility Study Pre-Feasibility studies can be very in-depth or very brief depending on the size of the project and the investment involved. It is difficult to determine the value of a Pre-feasibility study, as not all information is perfect and the magnitude of a project is not the only factor that can influence the importance of a feasibility analysis. This 520KW photovoltaic project has some unique risks associated with it. Therefore, more time should be spent on the Pre-feasibility and development than other projects of a similar size may typically require. The costs of the Pre-Feasibility study have been based on Preliminary Design, Report Preparation, a RETScreen Analysis and research costs into new emerging technologies. The Pre-Feasibility costs are based on information provided by GPEKS Constructions Inc. (GPEKS). These costs have been adjusted to include GST as this is a service and is not subject to PST charges.
Feasibility Study Site investigation Preliminary design Report preparation Travel and accommodation Other - RETScreen Analysis Credit - Base case system Sub-total : p-h p-h p-h p-trip Cost Credit 8 20 10 1 1 1 USD USD 65 USD 65 USD 65 USD 1,260 USD 63 USD USD USD USD USD 520 1,300 650 1,260 63 USD 3,793 BZD 1,040 2,600 1,300 2,520 126 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 7,586 100%

Development Permits and approvals Costs have been approximated for both the permits and approvals and project management portions of the project development process. The effort that has been associated with this process

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has been estimated to be 1 person-hours at a rate of $15 plus GST.70 Additionally A permit of $100.00 USD/ $200.00 BZD has been added for Electrical inspection and $670.00 USD/ $1340.00 BZD for the building permit. The $670.00 USD/ $355 BZD may not be needed and most likely becomes a credit, but for project safety it has been budgeted for. Project Management Since project management is vital to ensuring that a project runs smoothly, this cost component should not be ignored in any analysis. The effort in the development stage would be about 50 person hours in order to co-ordinate various project elements. A project manager would typically have a charge rate of approximately $50 USD/$100 BZD per hour plus GST. These costs may be lowered if the client wishes to be very engaged in the project and manage it themselves. It can, however, be less stressful and more efficient for an external manager to oversee a project, particularly when the project is significant in scope.71 Travel and Accommodation Travel and accommodation for the solar manufacture rep is set at zero for the study. All relevant parties interested in a project of this magnitude and close proximity to Corozal should have easy access to the site. Other Electricity Connection Electrical connection costs of $100.00 USD/$200.00 BZD are expected.72 This is to cover miscellaneous costs of the sub trades and specialty trades not covered elsewhere but estimated by GPEKS.73 Credit - Development Development credit is expected but not added to the project, but it is believed that manufactures will provide some resource development.74 This will give us a cost savings spread out over the PV modules, trackers and inverters.
Development Permits and approvals Project management Travel and accommodation Other - Electricity Connection
70 71

BZD p-h p-h p-trip Cost 1 50 1 1


USD 400 USD 50 USD USD 400 2,500 USD 50

800 5,000 25

100% 100% 100% 100%

USD

USD

RETScreen Software Online User Manual PV. Page 45, Permits and approvals RETScreen Software Online User Manual PV. Page 46, Project management 72 http://www.bel.com.bz/about_rates.asp 73 RETScreen Software Online User Manual PV. Page 46, Other 74 Telecom Brian Walker /JP Cooperman Xantrex 1-448-448-4500

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50

Credit - Base case system Sub-total :

Credit

1
USD

USD 2, 950

100% 5,900 100%

Engineering PV System Engineering The PV system engineering is estimated at $240.00 USD/$480.00 BZD75. This is for the complete design of the 520KW PV array based at southern tip of land owned by Art Higgins across from the Consejo airport. Structural Design We estimate that the structural design will require 80 hours at $12.00 USD 76a person hour. This leads to a total of $960.00 USD/$1920.00 BZD. This design will involve the modules, the 2 axis tracker, and all connections, hardware and interconnecting equipment. This work will be done by Belizeans. Electrical Design The electrical design is estimated to be unusually costly due to the size of the project and the newly developed highly efficient inverter selected. Electrical design is expected to cost $800.00 USD/$1,600.00 BZD77. This work will be done by Belizeans. Tenders and Contracting Tenders and contraction is budgeted for $44.00 USD/$88.00 BZD based on GPEKS and RETScreen figures78 then adjusted by Belizean wages amounts.79. This work will be done by Belizeans. Construction Supervision
75

76 76 77 78 79

Telecom Brian Walker/ Ricardo Lima Structural Architecture 011-501-620-4750 Telecom Brian Walker/ Ricardo Lima Structural Architecture 011-501-620-4750

http://www.bel.com.bz/services.asp
RETScreen Software Online User Manual PV. Page 48, Tenders and contracting

http://ambergriscaye.com/economics/DoingbusinessBelize.html

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Construction supervision is budgeted for $96.00 based on GPEKS RETScreen figures8081 at $4.00 USD/$8.00 BZD a person hour. Strong management is required to ensure that this substantial project proceeds according to the plans laid out by the designers. Failure to meet these plans could have serious consequences; meeting Belize Electrical/Safety laws and Corozal safety laws are paramount to this project. This work will be done by a Belizean supervisor.
Engineering PV system design Structural design Electrical design Tenders and contracting Construction supervision Other - Engineering Credit - Base case system Sub-total : p-h p-h p-h p-h p-h Cost Credit 20 80 80 11 24 1 1
USD USD USD USD USD 12 12 10 4 4 USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD 240 960 800 44 96 2,140

BZD 480 1,920 1,600 88 192 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

4,280

Power System (Energy Equipment) The main energy equipment costs are associated with the PV modules and the transportation to deliver the modules to the site. The modules have been estimated to cost $1.55 per Watt. The proposed surface area is 4000 m2. Therefore, the cost of the modules required for the project is approximately $806,000.00 USD/$1,612,000.00 BZD; this cost includes GST, but does not include PST as this tax is exempt from PV modules (GPEKS). The transportation costs for the delivery of the modules have been estimated as $17,400.00 USD/$34,800 BZD;
Energy Equipment PV module(s) Transportation Other - Energy equipment kWp project Cost Credit Sub-total : 520.00 3 0
USD USD USD 1,550 5,800 USD USD USD USD USD 806,000 17,400 823,400

BZD 1,612,000 34,800

1,646,800

100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

80 81

RETScreen Software Online User Manual PV. Page 48, Construction supervision

http://ambergriscaye.com/economics/DoingbusinessBelize.html

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Balance of System and miscellaneous Support Structure The SOLRAC HT-101 from Hispanotracker is the tracker that has been selected. Cost for the trackers is $350 per m2 of panels, which included shipping from Spain. It is estimated we need 4000 m2 of support structure giving us a cost of $1,400,000.00. Inverter Xantrex GT500 has been recommended for this project. The North American debut will commence in August of 2008 with orders to follow. This inverter boasts a 97% efficiency. The manufacture has notified me of early pricing for the GT500s is at $125,000 USD/$250,000 BZD. Other electrical equipment Other electrical equipment will be required, in the form of relays, isolators, insulators, faceplates, signage, conduit and fittings required to connect the PV modules to the inverter and the inverter to an existing breaker panels. Each system will also require circuit protection, and disconnects to be able to isolate the inverter. The installation of all remaining necessary equipment (below ground lines, on site Xfmrs) from the PV array to the nearest transmission line is included in this price. All final hook-ups will be done buy BEL, and any fees associated with final hook-up shall come from his funding82. An additional $1,000 USD per KWp has been budgeted based on the RETScreen manual and Wikipedia. 83 The actual transmission lines to and from the grid will be done by BEL and remain the property of BEL.84 System installation It can be difficult to locate an installer with the technical expertise to properly install the system. In order to decrease this risk, the CIGS solar vendor should send a representative to oversee the installation and/or provide training on proper installation. Alternatively, the project can make use of a reputable installer with a membership to an industry organization like the

82 83

http://www.bel.com.bz/about_rates.asp http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_line 84 http://www.bel.com.bz/about_rates.asp

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Canadian/US/Mexican Solar Industry. $36,400 USD/$72,800 BZD has been budgeted for installation. Transportation The budget for transportation is $40,200 USD/$80,400 BZD to cover the inverter shipment from Vancouver and trackers sub parts from Spain.
Balance of Equipment Module support structure Inverter Other electrical equipment System installation Transportation Other - Building Trackers Locally Belizean labour Costs Sub-total : m kW AC kWp kWp project Credit Credit
2

4,000.0 500.0 520.00 520.00 1 4,000 520

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

350 250 1,000 70 40,200 250 750

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

1,400,000 125,000 520,000 36,400 40,200 (1,000,000) (390,000) 1,931,600

BZD 2,800,000 250,000 1,040,000 72,800 80,400 (2,000,000) (780,000) 1,463,200

Miscellaneous Very little maintenance will be required for PV systems, but some training is still required. 15 person hours at $2.00 has been budgeted for the project. Included in this cost will be the grand opening celebrations. This fete is to include invitations to the PM, Mayors of Consejo, Corozal and the gated communities. Invitations should be open to all. A contingency of 5% has been added to project costs. Contingencies are budgeted to offset any unforeseen costs incurred, which include increased costs due to inaccurate equipment pricing or other cost estimations.
Miscellaneous Training Contingencies Sub-total : Initial Costs - Total p-h % 15 5%
USD 200 USD 1,566,883 USD 3000 78,344 81,344 2,900,009 BZD 6000 BZD 156,688 BZD BZD 162,688 5,800,017

USD USD USD

100% 100% 4.9% 100.0% 100% 100%

Operation & Maintenance $108.00 USD/$216.00 BZD has been budgeted for power checks and minor tightening of connections. An additional $160.00 USD/$320.00 BZD has been budgeted to ensure the PV array is kept clean, the trackers are well serviced and the inverters are monitored for physical damage. In additions the crews are to maintain a green atmosphere, while preventing the jungle from overtaking the PV array. A cost of $5000.00 USD/$10,000 BZD is forecasted to assist local communities in their support of the PV array. This amount should arise and hopefully cover the array awareness and the benefit if gives to the community. It is also anticipated that this will lower any vandal issues, and may offset security costs.

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Economic Analysis

O&M Property taxes/Insurance O&M labour Other - O&M Flowers/ hedges Community benefits Contingencies Sub-total : Annual Costs - Total

project p-h Cost Cost %

1 36 80 1 0%

USD USD USD USD USD

800 300 2 5000 1,068

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

800 10,800 160 5,000 16,760 16,760

BZD 1,600 21,600 320 10,000 33,520 33,520

Periodic costs Inverters carry a 10 year warranty85, and normally may experience a first failure by 25 years. A full replacement cost of one inverter has been budgeted at the twenty year mark. An extended warranty is available, but having a second backup inverter is worth its weight in gold. Although it is hoped that the entire trackers will be assembled in Belize, for this pre feasibility study only a portion of the trackers have made locally. As a result some parts will have to be procured from Spain. $200.00 USD/$400.00 BZD has been budgeted for a Tracker overhaul. At the end of the project, much of the equipment will have reached the end of its useful lifetime. The trackers and the other electrical equipment, however, will probably be salvageable. Accordingly, these are listed as a credit at the end of the project life. The value of the used equipment will be less than the cost of new equipment; accordingly, the initial costs have been decreased by 50%. In order to insure wide spread project support, it is suggested that the array, if and when disposed of, go back to the communities, rather than be sold for profit.
Periodic Costs (Credits) Inverter Replacement Tracker Overhaul End of project life Period 20 yr 10 yr Unit Cost
USD USD USD 125,000 200 USD USD USD USD

Amount
125,000 200 -

Cost Cost

% Foreign 100% 100% 100%

Foreign Amount
BZD BZD BZD 250,000 400 -

85 85

Telecom Brian Walker /JP Cooperman Xantrex 1-448-448-4500

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Financial Analysis

7.2.

Financial Analysis

Incentives/Grants Bank Loans The following Belize banks should be considered to assist with project financing, as they are the primary source of funding in Belize. Alliance Bank of Belize is the newest of the commercial banks in Belize. Belize Bank traces its history back to 1902 when it was founded as the Bank of British Honduras. Atlantic Bank was founded in 1971. First Caribbean International Bank (formerly Barclays) Now owned by CIBC ScotiaBank, the name it uses outside of Canada, but its Bank of Nova Scotia

Foreign Bank Loans The following Canadian chartered banks should be considered to assist with project financing, as they are the primary source of debt funding in Belize.86 Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) has just bought a chain of Caribbean banks87 Scotiabank (BNS) Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC)

If this project will result in a new, innovative product, and especially if it may result in a new company, a firm such as the Central Bank of Belize should be considered. This organization should offers businesses financing, including business loans and venture capital, and focuses on developing technologies for the energy market.88 Other: Private and Public Financing / Alternative Purchasing Mechanisms Municipal School Bonds Should the project involve the municipality, Schools, municipal bonds may offer a source of funding. These are essentially bonds sold to the general public by the municipality. The funding goes towards a project specified by the municipality, which repays the bondholders at a given interest rate. School will greatly benefit from a steady source of electivity, and their loads are positive day time loads. Conditional Sales Contract A conditional sales contract states that the seller maintains ownership of the property being sold, namely the solar photovoltaic system, until a full payment has been made. As long as all of the
86 87

http://www.ottawacapitalnetwork.com/entrepreneurs/debt.cfm?display=entrepreneurs http://www.rbcroyalbank.com/caribbean/ 88 Central Bank of Belize Annual Report 2001.

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Financial Analysis

terms in the contract are met, however, the conditional buyer owns the property when the final payment to the seller is made. I was not able to locate this in Belizean law but this should be similar in all Common Wealth Countries, and must be investigated.89 Venture Capital Venture Capital is funding provided by private investors: merchant banks, specialized venture capital institutions, and private individuals typically referred to as angel investors. Venture capitalists are often very selective about the businesses in which they invest, and typically expect a high rate of return, perhaps 25% - 50% annually. 90 Locating Financing Opportunities On the Canada Business Services for Entrepreneurs webpage, there is a search option for private financing which may be helpful as the project proceeds. In a preliminary search for financing greater than $5 million in the Environmental sector around Ottawa, 132 options were located.91 Some of these may be uses towards third world countries. In a recent National Geographic show aired in Canada, the show aired the top ten and worst ten countries contributing to GHG and the environment. Belize was constantly seen in the top five do-gooders. With Belize now in the news and in a positive note, funding from wealthy environmental sector Gentlemen/Ladies can now happen. And they will be willing to open their check books. Now is the time!

89 90

http://www.canadabusiness.ca/epic/site/sof-sdf.nsf/en/so00379e.html http://www.canadabusiness.ca/epic/site/sof-sdf.nsf/en/so00382e.html 91 https://strategis.ic.gc.ca/app/scr/srcsFncng/instRgstrtn/Srch?lang=eng&stg=1&type=F&instTyp=P

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Financial Analysis

Financial Parameters Rate of Inflation The rate of inflation is the projected annual average rate of inflation over the life of the project. For example, inflation for the next 25 years in North America is currently forecasted to range between 2 and 3%.92 In Belize the rate of inflation has been somewhat less narrow accordingly; we have selected a rate of 3% for this analysis. This value should be further researched for the feasibility study, as the financial situation in Belize has changed since the election of a more facially responsibly government in 2008. Figure 28 Belize Inflation figures.

Financial Analysis Inputs

92

RETScreen PV User Manual, page 66

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The following financial inputs have been used in RETScreen to perform the financial analysis in addition to the cost information calculated during the cost analysis. 1. 2. Firm RE Capacity: This represents the amount of power the solar PV system will consistently produce. Since solar isolation is an intermittent resource and there is no backup related to this project, we have chosen to use the conservative value of zero. Avoided Cost of Energy: The avoided cost of energy is typically the cost of grid electricity that is offset.93 Since this energy from this project is not net metered, And BEL will be selling the electricity to a verity of customers, the initial rate chose is $0. Should the communities choose to purchase directly from the array, the agreed price would go here. Green House Gas Reduction Credit: The credit as been set to 5% for any GHG credits, this should help to off set costs. This is the GHG that has been saved by installing the 520KWhr PV Array, and can be sold to other countries for a profit, thus allowing them to meet their GHG targets. RE Production Credits and Credit Duration: The new Government is open to granted buy back rates A figure of $0.225 USD has been used. RE Credit Escalation Rate: We do not anticipate the credit increasing over the life of the project, so this has been set to zero. Energy Cost Escalation Rate: The energy cost escalation rate accounts for the increase in energy costs over the project lifetime. Based on the RETScreen PV User Manual, we have estimated that, on average, energy costs will increase 2% annually. Inflation: We have estimated that the inflation rate is 3%. Discount Rate: To accurately assess the present value of a project, future cash flows must be discounted. The discount rate is an estimate of how much those flows should be discounted, and thus affects the assessment of the present value. We have estimated a typical discount rate for this project is 9%.94

3.

4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

Project Life: Per conversations with thin film manufacturers (see Table 2: Data on CIGS and CdTe Modulels), we have estimated a project life of 25 years.

9. 10.

11.

Table 2: Data on CIGS and CdTe Modules Debt Ratio : The debt ratio indicates how much of the project is financed via debt. Since there are no grants for the project, the initial financial indicators are not extremely favourable (see Table 6: Preliminary RETScreen Model Results: CIGS More Cost Effective), and the capital costs are quite high, we have assumed that the project committee is only willing to defray 10% of the costs, which leads to a debt ratio of 90%. Debt Term: The debt term is the number of years the project committee has to repay the debt. For this project, the debt term has been assumed to be 25 years. This will be possible if the municipality is willing to access a Loan Program. It is believed though stakeholders will be financing this project from Canadian and U.S. banks.

93 94

http://www.bel.com.bz/about_rates.asp http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discount_rate

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Financial Analysis

12.

13. 14.

Debt Interest Rate: We have assumed that the project would be financed through investors home banks at rates of 6%. Loans in Belize at this scale with Government backup may fall in the range of 10% to denied. The rate of 6% has been selected, but may be changed/lowered after further study. Income Tax Rate: PRIME MINISTER THE HON. DEAN O. BARROW newly elected to Belize in mid 2008 has stated on record that any alternate energies are to be tax free. We have set the tax to 0% which is for GEPKS purposes only. Incentives/Grants: The primary source of income for this project is from BEL. The system life is 25 years, while BEL most likely will not sign any long term contracts I believe they will have to enter into a 20 year contract as recommend in the governments response December 2003 (pg 17) to the Nation Energy Strategy November 2003. We have assumed that the electricity from the project will be sold on the wholesale market for the last five years of the project life. Currently electricity is sold at about $0.45/kWh BZD (to be reassessed) on the wholesale market, and using the energy escalation rate we can estimate the average wholesale cost between 2030 and 2034 to be $1.17/kWh BZD. Multiplying this by the annual output and reducing the value to be expressed in current dollars (i.e. discounted to the project start date), we find that the five year sale of electricity on the wholesale market is worth $11,939. This extra funding was added via the Incentives/Grants slot. To determine the actual simple payback and year-to-positive values, the Incentives/Grants slot was reset to zero.

Module Selection There are three items that must be modified in the financial model: the module type, the nominal module efficiency, and the module cost. See Table 5: Projected Module Properties in 2010 for the values of these parameters. Note: To obtain accurate values for the simple payback and the year-to-positive cash flow, the Incentives/Grants parameter was set to zero. To obtain reasonably accurate values for the remaining parameters, the Incentives/Grants parameter was set to $11,939. See point 14, Incentives/Grants, above. The annual savings should be treated as a ballpark figure, at best.
Table 13: Financial Feasibility Financial Feasibility Pre-tax IRR and ROI After-tax IRR and ROI Simple Payback Year-to-positive cash flow Net Present Value - NPV Annual Life Cycle Savings Benefit-Cost (B-C) ratio % % yr yr
USD USD

30.3% 30.3% 7.0 5.4 892,956 108,262 6.43

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Financial Analysis

7.3.

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analyses are performed to determine how the uncertainty of project parameters impacts the project. As there can be a great deal of uncertainty in the parameters used in the prefeasibility study, sensitivity analyses are especially important to perform. The parameters that can be varied in the RETScreen sensitivity analysis tool are the initial cost, the annual cost, the renewable energy delivered and the debt interest rate. The sensitivity analysis allows us see how the financial indicators change to when these parameters are varied. This demonstrates the effect these parameters can have on financial health of the project should our initial estimates be inaccurate. Project costs directly impact the viability of a project; investors may not have the capital required if initial costs increase, and conversely, the project may be more profitable if the project costs are lower. Factors affecting project costs include the following. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Initial capital investment Annual operation and maintenance cost Annual solar irradiation fluctuations due to climate change, smog etc Debt interest rate Contingencies before, during and after installation Losses in power conditioning equipment Sensitivity on discount rate

When one of these factors varies from the initial analysis, it can have a significant impact on the ROI, the IRR, the year to positive cash flow and the net present value. Below are the results of RETScreen sensitivity worksheet applied to this 520KW Belize Project. The analysis was performed on After-tax IRR and ROI. The sensitivity range was set to 20%. The threshold was set to 12%, as we presumed that the IRR/ROI must be at least 8% for the project to be deemed financially attractive enough to pursue. All scenarios resulting in an IRR/ROI less than 8% are highlighted in peach. Please note that, since the SOP finances the majority of this project, there is no avoided cost of energy. Also note that the Incentives/Grants parameter in the financial analysis worksheet was set to $11,939 for this analysis. For information on the significance of this parameter, see Section 7.2. The effects of varying the renewable energy output can be clearly seen in Table 14. Unless the renewable energy delivered is significantly overestimated (~15-20%), uncertainties in the renewable energy output will not cause the project to become financially unfavourable. Such energy output variations can be due to extreme weather years, or faulty/damaged equipment.

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Financial Analysis

Table 14: Sensitivity Analysis on Renewable Energy Delivered Avoided cost of energy (USD/kWh) RE delivered 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 (MWh) 89295592% -20% -10% 0% 899.553 -20% 351,134 351,134 351,134 1,011.997 -10% 622,045 622,045 622,045 1,124.441 0% 892,956 892,956 892,956 1,236.885 10% 1,163,867 1,163,867 1,163,867 1,349.329 20% 1,434,778 1,434,778 1,434,778

0.0000 10% 351,134 622,045 892,956 1,163,867 1,434,778

0.0000 20% 351,134 622,045 892,956 1,163,867 1,434,778

If the initial costs are varied, it is clear that an increase of 15-20% could make the project much less attractive (see Table 15). There is more uncertainty in the costs than the output, making this a stronger risk. Most common unexpected initial costs may be unforeseen site preparation, shipping, or labour wages.
Table 15: Sensitivity Analysis on Initial Costs Avoided cost of energy (USD/kWh) 0.0000 0% 1,209,096 1,051,026 892,956 734,886 576,816

Initial costs (USD) 1,316,182 1,480,704 1,645,227 1,809,750 1,974,273

892955.9 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

0.0000 -20% 1,209,096 1,051,026 892,956 734,886 576,816

0.0000 -10% 1,209,096 1,051,026 892,956 734,886 576,816

0.0000 10% 1,209,096 1,051,026 892,956 734,886 576,816

0.0000 20% 1,209,096 1,051,026 892,956 734,886 576,816

In the next table, variations in annual costs are assessed. The project may face such costs due to unbudgeted and unforeseen events. Since the annual costs are such a small percent of the overall project costs, the implications on the IRR/ROI are not significant.
Table 16: Sensitivity Analysis on Annual Costs Avoided cost of energy (USD/kWh) 0.0000 0% 931,955 912,455 892,956 873,457 853,957

Annual costs (USD) 13,408 15,084 16,760 18,436 20,112

892955.9 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

0.0000 -20% 931,955 912,455 892,956 873,457 853,957

0.0000 -10% 931,955 912,455 892,956 873,457 853,957

0.0000 10% 931,955 912,455 892,956 873,457 853,957

0.0000 20% 931,955 912,455 892,956 873,457 853,957

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Financial Analysis

Next, changes to the debt parameters will be studied. A debt interest rate of 4.8% has been selected with a 90% debt ratio. A loan of this nature, however, may not be accessible if the municipal government does not join the project team, so the risk of the interest rate increasing by 50% is quite significant. As Table 17 indicates, increasing the rate by 50% makes the project economically unviable.
Table 17: Sensitivity Analysis on Debt Ratio and Debt Interest Rate Debt ratio (%) Debt interest rate 72.0% 81.0% 90.0% (%) 892955.9 -20% -10% 0% 6.4% -20% 960,443 976,945 993,447 7.2% -10% 920,591 932,112 943,632 8.0% 0% 880,050 886,503 892,956 8.8% 10% 838,835 840,136 841,437 9.6% 20% 796,960 793,027 789,093

99.0% 10% 1,009,949 955,153 899,409 842,737 785,160

N/A 20% 1,026,451 966,673 905,862 844,038 781,226

It is also important to consider changes to the debt term. Again, if the city/village communities do not elect to join the project team, the debt term of 25 years may not be possible to obtain. The effect of decreasing the debt term is less significant than increasing the debt ratio.
Table 18: Sensitivity Analysis on Debt Ratio and Debt Term Debt term (yr) Debt interest rate (%) 6.4% 7.2% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6% 892955.9 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 8.0 -20% 968,403 926,005 883,006 839,416 795,246 9.0 -10% 981,173 934,988 888,074 840,445 792,115 10.0 0% 993,447 943,632 892,956 841,437 789,093 11.0 10% 1,005,240 951,946 897,656 842,392 786,180 12.0 20% 1,016,567 959,939 902,177 843,312 783,374

A risk analysis was performed using the following parameters. The results can be seen in and Figure 29. Depending upon the errors in the values used, it is quite possible for the IRR/ROI to be less than 10%. However, it is likely that the IRR/ROI will be more attractive than 10%.
Table 19: Parameters for Risk Analysis Parameter Unit Avoided cost of energy USD/kWh RE delivered MWh Initial costs USD Annual costs USD Debt ratio % Debt interest rate % Debt term yr Value 0.0000 1,124.441 1,645,227 16,760 90.0% 8.0% 10 Range (+/-) 0% 0% 5% 5% 0% 30% 0% Minimum 0.0000 1,124.441 1,562,966 15,922 90.0% 5.6% 10 Maximum 0.0000 1,124.441 1,727,489 17,598 90.0% 10.4% 10

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Financial Analysis

GHG emission reduction credit RE production credit

USD/tCO2 USD/kWh

0.0 0.225

50% 10%

0.0 0.203

0.0 0.248

Figure 28: Impact of Parameters on IRR and ROI

Figure 29: RETScreen Risk Analysis Results

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Organizational Analysis

8. Organizational Feasibility
The organizational analysis looks at the major players that must be involved for the successful completion of this project. This project has many different stages which involve the collective effort of many partners. Except for BEL all are North American Gated Communities. Mayan Seaside Development Art Higgins, the Developer of Mayan Seaside Belize, La Ceiba, Honduras, and Palmetto Ridge Roatan is well known in Northern Belize. His roots go from Texas Oil machinery to land development to self environmentalist. Also co-installed power grid to northern section of Consejo. Mayan Seaside is a sold out development of 102 housing units plus 2 commercial units and several parks/beaches. 13 homes are built and as much more are under construction. Its possible the development may reach 45 to 50 homes by 2010. Raymon Wagnor Developer of Wagners Landing and Smugglers Den Resort. Gated community to the North and co-installer of area power grid. The resort contains cabaas, a restaurant/bar and 1 apartment. The development contains less than 12 very large lots that may be sub divided.95 Consejo Shores Oldest well established North American community in Belize. To be supplied from the Grid and benefit from the array. 40 years ago, Bill Wildman, a Canadian, started developing "Consejo Shores," a luxury development with full amenities and services, adjacent to the village of Consejo. Consejo Shores currently has 70 large homes constructed and several under construction. The community has a 9 hole golf course which is expandable and a formal library. Consejo Shores has the potential to finalize into 900+ lots as seen on their site.96 Belize Electrical Limited (BEL) BEL will become a solid player in this project as it sources both electrical power and employment for its employees. BEL is the sole electrical company in Belize. Insufficient Capacity These were the headlines in the National Energy Strategy Diagnostic carried out by Dr Ivan Azurdia-Bravo of Fundacion Solar in Guatemala City, Guatemala97. Belize does not have

95 96

http://smugglersdenbelize.tripod.com/ http://www.consejoshores.com/Residential.aspx 97 Pg 10 Energy for Sustainable Development Toward a National Energy Strategy for Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic Nov 5 2003

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Organizational Analysis

sufficient human and institutional capacity to promote Renewable Energy Technologies. The wording went on and was less than palatable. I disagree. And this project will be to proof of it. Courses are not yet being run in Belize collages, nor due factories produce photovoltaics. But given the opportunity and training, the work force can be easily adapted. R&D is another matter. Partnerships in this project are imperative to the successful continuation of developing, financing, launching/building, completing and operating the PV generating plants. As this project moves forward, additional partners will embark to facilitate its development. Focus efforts become more specific as the project moves forward. A key proponent to the project could be a third party that orchestrates the various efforts of the many partners investing time, money and effort for the successful completion of the project. This third party facilitator could have the sole mission of ensuring that deadlines and milestones are reached by participating organizations.

8.1.

The Project Development Teams

University Involvement

As this project proposes the use of new technology, further research and development (R&D) should be considered. Universities are often at the forefront of new developing technologies and have been known to join high profile projects with barriers to development. I believe University of Belize can work with other Universities to accomplish many at home ideas. The University can be involved in the following ways: Engineering and design 1. Incorporate reliability engineering principles on new nanotechnology. 2. Establish reliability requirements/objectives. 3. Reliability prediction using previous data/experience. 4. Reliability Analysis (identify weak components for making improvements or trade-offs). Student and/or Staff involvement in the assessment of the selected equipment 1. Mechanical Components and Systems check. Analyse snow loads, degradation (strength, fatigue, wear, and corrosion), component selections and alternatives.

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2. Evaluate process variations during the fabrication, manipulation and installation of the PV modules. Student and/or Staff involvement in the assessment of environmental effects of selected equipment 1. Test effects of temperature, vibration, shock, humidity, power, dirt, people, transient voltage, radiation (UV), storms, etc. 2. Accelerated testing (simultaneous test). The first few data provide trends, indicating sudden death test strategies by finding the failure trend, fatigue testing on components, electronic and corrosion testing. Could be part of Engineering Co-op program where one unit can be installed on campus for close monitoring and testing where University members: 1. Test, record, analyse, correct and retest 2. Observe occurrences of failures and problems and bring corrective action 3. Report problems with indication of failure symptoms, conditions at the time of failure, identification of failed equipment, operating time for the part of failure, date/time of failure, etc. 4. Investigate problems, malfunctions, and failures to determine the root cause of failure. 5. Develop, implement, and demonstrate that corrective actions have fixed the problems 6. Track problems/corrective action until corrective action is demonstrated to have solved the problem and the required reliability goal has been met

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Organizational Analysis

8.2.

Construction & Logistics

Bidding Process Construction Outfits The basic structure of the bidding process consists of the formulation of detailed plans and specifications of a facility based on the objectives and requirements of the owner, and the invitation of qualified contractors to bid for the right to execute the project.98 With detailed plans of the PV generating plant finalised by the Engineering and Design teams, the bidding process may begin. Selecting the appropriate construction outfit(s) requires defining criteria from the major stake holders of the project and negotiations with the construction outfit(s). Contract Provisions for Risk Allocation Provisions for the allocation of risk on site through construction phases should be addressed by assigning responsibility for construction outfits to cover the costs of possible or unforeseen occurrences that could potentially inflate cost. Force majeure (i.e., this provision absolves an owner or a contractor for payment for costs due to "Acts of God" and other external events such as war or labour strikes), Indemnification (i.e., this provision absolves the indemnified party from any payment for losses and damages incurred by a third party such as adjacent property owners.) Liens (i.e., assurances that third party claims are settled such as "mechanics liens" for worker wages), Labour laws (i.e., payments for any violation of labour laws and regulations on the job site), Differing site conditions (i.e., responsibility for extra costs due to unexpected site conditions), Delays and extensions of time, Liquidated damages (i.e., payments for any facility defects with payment amounts agreed to in advance) Consequential damages (i.e., payments for actual damage costs assessed upon impact of facility defects), Occupational safety and health of workers, Permits, licenses, laws, and regulations, Equal employment opportunity regulations, Termination for default by contractor, Suspension of work, Warranties and guarantees.99

Types of payments

98 99

http://www.ce.cmu.edu/pmbook/08_Construction_Pricing_and_Conctracting.html http://www.ce.cmu.edu/pmbook/08_Construction_Pricing_and_Conctracting.html

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Different payment modes can be adopted in the many phases of the construction of the PV energy generating plant. This may include payments made by lump sum contract, unit price contract, cost plus fixed percentage contract, cost plus fee contract, cost plus variable percentage contract and more. In negotiating construction contracts, these issues and more can become deciding factors in the payment of various contracts. Construction Planning Construction planning is a fundamental and challenging in the execution of construction projects. It involves the choice of technology, the definition of work tasks, the estimation of the required resources and durations for individual tasks, and the identification of any interactions among the different work tasks. A good construction plan is the basis for developing the budget and the schedule for work. Developing the construction plan is a critical task in the management of construction, even if the plan is not written or otherwise formally recorded. In addition to these technical aspects of construction planning, it may also be necessary to make organizational decisions about the relationships between project participants and even which organizations to include in a project.100 For example, involvement of the developing teams can assist the construction in its many phases. On-site specialists, educators, teachers and students have a great deal of expertise to contribute during the construction. However, identifying the time and place to involve the different developing teams with the building teams often becomes a delicate task. This involvement should not hinder the progress of construction. Construction planning involves scrutinizing the synthesis of various steps required to successfully complete the PV energy generation plant. Generation of required activities, analysis of the implications of these activities, and choice among the various alternative means of performing activities play a major role in decision making from the project planner. Construction planning may center around two common models.

100

http://www.ce.cmu.edu/pmbook/09_Construction_Planning.html

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Organizational Analysis

Figure 30: Construction Planning Models101

Construction planning can either be cost oriented or schedule oriented. Project planners will need to weigh the different approaches they may adopt. Once a preferred route is chosen, work tasks must be determined. These work tasks represent the necessary framework to permit scheduling of construction activities, along with estimating the resources required by the individual work tasks, and any necessary precedences or required sequence among the tasks.102 A detailed breakdown of key milestones or the critical path could very well accompany a timeline and a summary of associated costs. Numerous natural sequences exist for the construction activities due to requirements for structural integrity, specifications, regulations and other technical requirements. Timing is important throughout the project. For example, the cement used in the tracker footings must cure (set) for a specified duration before any work is carried on its surface. Quality and Safety Concerns in the Construction Defects or failures can translate into higher than expected costs and delays. In some worst case scenarios, it may cause personal injuries or fatalities. Indirect associated costs of insurance, inspection and regulation offer greater peace of mind when considering ways to avoid unwanted events. Project managers have a responsibility to ensure that the job is done right the first time and that no major accidents occur during the construction. A safety representative could be on site to ensure a first aid station is up to code.

101 102

http://www.ce.cmu.edu/pmbook/09_Construction_Planning.html http://www.ce.cmu.edu/pmbook/09_Construction_Planning.html

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Organizational Analysis

performance specifications have been developed for many construction operations. Rather than specifying the required construction process, these specifications refer to the required performance or quality of the finished facility. The exact method by which this performance is obtained is left to the construction contractor. Ensuring the quality of work in the construction is critical to the PV energy generation plant to deliver on its forecasted returns and associated operation and maintenance costs.

Computer modeling The following figure illustrates the computer aided engineering (CAE) system envisioned for the knowledge and information-intensive construction industry.103 In this system, engineering and "business" databases support different functions throughout the many stages of a project. The construction phase itself includes overlapping design and construction functions. During this construction phase, computer aided design (CAD) and computer aided manufacturing (CAM) aids are available to the project manager. Project developers may attempt to use different databases to increase the validity in their predictions concerning the many quantifiable variables (costs, timelines, risks, etc.) of the many phases involved in the business, design, construction and maintenance of this project.

Figure 31: Databases

103

Computer-aided Engineering in the Construction Industry," Engineering with Computers, vol. 1, no. 2, 1985, pp. 87-102

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Organizational Analysis

8.2 Operation and Maintenance


Duties involving the operation and maintenance of the PV generating plant will be specified in greater detail as the specifications of the selected technology mature. Duties may include but are not limited to:

Keeping the array area clear of vegetation/trees. Cleaning the PV modules to clear dust. Maintenance of mechanical tracking systems (greasing or replacement of components) Monitoring the electrical output and electronic system failures Servicing, maintaining or replacing the various components.

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Risk Analysis

9. Risk Analysis
Risk is a state in which the number of possible future events exceeds the number of events that will actually occur, and some measure of probability can be attached to these events.1 Risks have three distinguishing features: Likely to occur in the future: Risks must be future events. Events that have occurred are facts, not risks. Negative effect: Should the event occur, it would harm the project. For example it could result in higher costs, schedule delays, or reduced quality. Not certain to occur: A certain future event is not a risk, but a task that should be included in the project plan.104

Risk assessment has been used as a means of preventing economic activity that creates more dangers than are reasonable.105 Risk assessment allows us to identify, analyze and prioritize risks. The greatest danger for this project lies in the financial risks. Risk management measures can transfer certain types of risks away from investors and lenders and reduce the cost of financing a PV project. Other risks and barriers specific to PV projects are not uncommon, such as governmental, social, and environmental risks. Risk aversion or mitigation becomes useful in identifying early stage concerns of this PV project. Financial Risks Without financial support, moderate to large scale energy generating projects of this kind cannot be enacted. Sources of financing, base lending and investment decisions are impacted by both the risks and returns of a project. Addressing key financial concerns in the early development of this project helps to minimize risks and maximize returns, which in turn helps to attract project financers. To secure loans, developers and their equity sponsors will generally need to provide between 10% and 50% of the capital for a project in the form of shareholder equity. As the risk associated with a project increases, lenders might require that equity play a larger role in the financing structure. As the greatest risk in this project is arguably the use of a new nanotechnology, it is important for the financers to have confidence in the application of this new technology. Before considering project risks, we will consider insurance for financing which is a way to ensure financing throughout the project.

1 104

Scoping Study on Financial Risk Management Instruments for Renewable Energy Projects, United Nations Environment Programme, Marsh & McLenan Companies, UN publication. 105 Dictionary of Economics, Penguin Reference, Graham Bannock, R.E. Baxter, Evan Davis, seventh edition, 2003

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Risk Analysis

Insurance for Financing Many issues can make a project unattractive to financers. Revenue exposure as a result of delays and maintenance, for example, can become a concern for financers. Furthermore, the significant initial costs of many renewable energy technology projects leads to an unattractive time profile, defined as a delay in revenue compared to conventional power plants. As foreseeable costs become more defined and numerous, insurance can be used to transfer unacceptable but insurable risk from the lenders/investor to insurance markets. Insurance can provide financial protection from increased costs incurred from delays or damage during fabrication/construction, transport, installation, construction and operational stages of the project. By removing or minimizing risks to project financers, insurance for financing can play an essential role in ensuring the availability of project financing. The time profile in particular provides a significant opportunity and role for insurance.106 RF&G now offer construction insurance in Belize. Project Risk In developing and launching the project, many risks must be identified and addressed outside of the financial realm. Table 12 below identifies project risks, indicates the impact of each risk, and establishes a mitigation strategy. Macro Perspective Risks
Table 20: Macro Project Risks Summary

Project Risk Lead time risks:


Risks associated with estimating the time and costs involved in the planning stage.

Probability

Impact Medium-High

Mitigation Involve several research team efforts for development of critical elements of the project. Implement a schedule for project development with weekly timelines, milestones and progress reports.

Low

Delays, roadblocks in time sensitive delivery of project developments.

Construction risk:
Relates to the risks associated with construction phases.

Medium-High Low-Medium
Project not being completed and operating on schedule; can be lethal to the project.

106

Scoping Study on Financial Risk Management Instruments for Renewable Energy Projects, United Nations Environment Programme, Marsh & McLenan Companies, UN publication.

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Risk Analysis

Project Risk Performance risks; Relates to the risk that the project does not perform or operate as expected. Operational

Probability

Impact

Mitigation Performance reports exposing failures in operational, resource, technology, natural hazard and permit delivery risks. Monitoring reports in mechanical breakdown, damage, connection interruption, supply chain issues Evaluate impacts of decreasing solar resource throughout the life of the project. Accelerated testing of the technology could be developed in the feasibility study. Conduct side effect study and mitigation strategy for fire, lightning, flood, storm, etc. Recognize time sensitive appropriation of all permits, licenses and approvals.

Low-Medium

Medium-High
High investment low production project.

Low

Medium-High
Increases in downtime can become costly.

Resource Low

Medium
Solar resource is well documented to be stable for the lifespan of project.

Technology Medium

Medium-High
Prototypical or innovation uncertainty may impact the desirable results.

Natural Hazard Medium Medium-High


Impact varies upon nature of the hazard.

Permit Delivery risk Low

Medium
Projects of this scope get more attention from permit donors which could accelerate lag time of waiting.

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Risk Analysis

Micro Perspective Risks


Table 21: Micro Project Risks Summary

Project Risk Technological


PV module and BOS suppliers unable to deliver on time.

Probability

Impact

Mitigation Ensure close and frequent contact with supplier and review timeliness promises. Look into substituting nanotechnology modules with conventional modules in feasibility study. Reapplying could set the project back and inflate costs. All permits or approvals should be sent on time allowing sufficient time for revisions or reapplications. Incorporate quality performance reviews as project goes underway.

Medium

Medium-High
Escalating costs and delays

Technological
PV nanotechnology proves too new for real project.

High Medium-High
Unable to develop project any further before greater reliability of technology is made.

Institutional
Developing permit refused.

Medium-High Low
Escalated costs and project can come to a complete halt.

Technical
Insufficient "Knowhow" during project development.

Medium-High Low
Could compromise integrity of the project and deliverables.

Environmental
Heavy Rain fall

Medium-High Medium
Load capacity might cause structural damage.

Program modules to vertical position.

Sun glare disturbances for vehicles of the road

Medium

Plant series of evergreens for that stretch of the road.

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Risk Analysis

Project Risk

Probability

Impact

Mitigation Structure the project to allow potential investors/shareholders to be added.

Financial

Greater than expected construction costs

Medium-High

Social

Surrounding resident discontent about project

Medium

Include community briefing and feedback into project development.

Greatest Risk, Technology (CIGS or CdTe modules) As previously mentioned, nanotechnology may present the greatest risk as the reliability of the modules are still to be determined. Why do some modules maintain stable performance, while others fail? This question begs for a better understanding of degradation mechanism at the device level and prototype module level, to distinguish the intrinsic device contributions from the extrinsic mechanisms that may result from the packaging process. Infiltration of water vapour through the encapsulation package has been shown to degrade performance. Hence, developing a thin-film barrier to water vapour will boost in-field durability.107 This technology lacks realworld testing. Concerns over the availability and price of key components to these modules also put this venture in greater risk. As this technology matures, it is important to consider how the risks evolve, as new developments and discoveries may naturally minimize some risks. Feasibility Analysis The power industry is growing increasingly competitive, both domestically and internationally. Electricity suppliers and project developers aggressively bid to furnish new generating units. Successful projects must meet certain targets and respond constructively towards problem solving when risks present themselves expectedly or unexpectedly. The site-specific nature of each project and the many possible business and technology scenarios make it costly for developers to effectively balance unit performance, capital cost, competitive positioning, return on investment and associated risks. Further research and developments will expand on risks involved as this project matures into the feasibility stage.

107

http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/wc4papernoufi__.doc

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10.

Conclusion

Based on the estimations and assumptions used, this analysis indicates that the initial project costs would be roughly $2.9 million. According to the analysis herein, the project presents a potentially viable return on investment (ROI); a 27.9% ROI may not entice venture capitalists, but is a strong enough investment for institutional investors, particularly if financial risks are reduced through the use of insurance. Furthermore, a positive cash flow will commence at 5.4 years, making the project more attractive. With a rating of 520KW, the project could produce enough power to run 1,000 homes.108 This 520KW PV plant can save enough GHG equivalents for the population of Belize to bus 15580000km non stop.109 Overall impacts of this project will be felt in a positive way for Consejo, Corozel and Belize. In support of the governments new view of an open and competitive government110, renewable economy, Belize is positioned as a leader in supporting sustainable development technologies and practices for businesses and consumers. This project would help Belize in becoming a leader, innovator and responsible steward for the Caribbean. This study has shown that the installation of a 520KW CIGS PV energy generation plant using dual axis trackers in the Consejo area may be feasible.

11.

Recommendations

The proposal discussed above provides abundant information on the feasibility of a 520KW solar powered energy plant. Further research and development is required to advance this proposal to the next stage. Forging liaisons with the major players of this proposal to form partnerships at the development stage is recommended at this point in its development. As technology is rapidly evolving in this field, the immense growth potential for this proposal to become a real project must receive multiples studies comparable to the one drafted in this work before this project sees the light of day. Due to time constraints, Sea Container transport was not compared to ground transport in this pre-feasibility analysis. Sea Container shipping should be considered in the feasibility study, however; it is debatable weather Ships have a smaller carbon footprint than trucks, but may be much more economical. Its all depended on the type of ship used. And how much trucking is required from Port to site and back.

108 109

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/02/powering_20000.php http://www.thecompensators.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19&Itemid=72 110 http://www.governmentofbelize.gov.bz/

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12.

Attachments

Site Assessment Supplemental to Technical Analysis


Mayan Seaside: The second location investigated was using Mayan Seaside as the array itself. The remaining 20KV would have gone to powering a telecom tower for internet phone services via Mexico (allowing for vacationers cells to work) and the charging of several golf carts/water equipment. Due to the time constraints of this project, this will have to be followed up at a later date.

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Special Thanks
To Dr. Ram Sahi for first review on the technological analysis.. Before retirement from the federal government, Dr. Sahi worked for Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) for a long time where he became Director of the Renewable Energy and Electrical division. He is now research professor of economics at Carleton University, and has expressed interest to work with GPEKS on various projects. His teaching and research interests focus on environmental and clean energy issues. As Director at NRCan , Dr. Sahi was responsible for conducting and managing policy research in electricity supply and renewable energy development. At NRCan, he managed the development and implementation of some of the current renewable energy initiatives such as REDI (Renewable Energy Deployment Initiative). He worked also within NRCan as a senior policy advisor on climate change, managing studies on sector strategies for climate change, environmental taxation, cap and trade and market regulations for mitigating carbon emissions. His analysis and advice to the Minister and senior executives played a major role in developing Canadas position for the Kyoto Protocol. He represented NRCan, over many years, in the energy working groups of Stanford University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna, the North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation and the International Energy Agency. To Elyse Rhodin for assistance on thin film technologies Elyse has BS in Physics from Dickinson College and a MS in Astronomy from the University of Maryland. After obtaining her masters, she decided to do something more immediately relevant to the world, and I moved into the field of renewable energy. She began working at a renewable energy consulting firm (Think Energy) in October of 2006. She works in the on-site generation area, and is involved in feasibility analyses of several technologies, including solar photovoltaics, solar hot water, and small wind turbines. To Rocco Matricardi for incites on electrical and invertors. Rocco has a Bachelors and Masters of Science in Electrical Engineering with 14 years of Telecom Hardware Design, Hardware Management, Applications and Technical product management. To Stacey Woodruff for assistance in fiscal planning and environmental concerns. Stacey completed a B.A.Sc in Chemical Engineering and with COOP and Engineering Management options from the University of Ottawa in 2006. While in the university COOP program, she completed a work term placement at Natural Resources Canada in the Biomass Group. Her interest in renewable energy technologies was piqued there although sustainability

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and clean living which has been something she has always valued as she grew up in rural Northern Ontario. She also completed work terms in various divisions at Environment Canada and completed one work term designing an online course while in Mexico. She currently works for a large consulting firm in the Air Quality Services Group. She works mostly on air projects, however has been involved in wind and biomass projects and hopes to expand her expertise in renewable technologies. To Stephane Pilon for assistance on solar structural supports. Stephane has a B.A. from the University of Alberta and has been interested in sustainable development for some years now. He has done much volunteer work with Habitat for Humanity and with a sustainable straw bale lodge in British-Columbia, with a micro hydro project. His duties include but are not limited to Supervisor, Foreman, Project Manager, General Manager and Contractor. He will soon be launching green energy projects.

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