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Key Messages
Pace of economic development is directly impacted by the ongoing financial crisis but long-term, underlying drivers remain intact Infrastructure investment has been slowed in places but, onbalance, continues despite (if not because of) the economic crisis Infrastructure opportunities are global but, near term, will be strongest in countries who have the fiscal capacity and the policy mindset to fund aggressive stimulus Global infrastructure is an important opportunity for companys like Terex who have a portfolio of capabilities and the ability to execute globally
2
10%
Increasing construction spending Increasing commodity consumption Conditions favoring sustained, long-term growth
5%
US Mexico Brazil
Moderate Growth
Low Growth
$20 $30 $40 $50 $60
0%
($10)
$0
$10
W. Europe Japan
N. America Asia
ANZ E. Europe
Africa
Source: Analysis of data from the Economist eiu; Bubbles represent countries. Bubble size is proportioned to country GDP
Clearly a more challenging new eraat least for now Global crisis has hit all markets - some developing markets have been hit particularly hard Much depends on the ability of governments to respond and respond effectively Infrastructure is both an important lever and an important long-term priority
10%
5%
India Poland
Russia
$20 $30 $40 $50 US
Low Growth
$60
0%
($10)
$0
$10
Brazil
-5%
W. Europe ANZ
Mexico Japan
Source: Analysis of data from the Economist eiu; Bubbles represent countries. Bubble size is proportioned to country GDP
-10%
INDIA
Situations range from troubling (China) to downright grim (Russia) China is best positioned but will deteriorate if growth slows further India faces significant challenges struggling to grow, despite government intervention Sharply lower outlooks in Brazil, as industrial conditions weaken and consumption slows Russia has been hit hard and continues to fight downward pressure on its currency, as it struggles to restore economic growth
BRAZIL
1 8.0% 1 4.0% 1 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% -2.0% '97'98 '99 '00 '01'02 '03'04 '05'06 '07 '08'09 '1 0 -6.0% -1 0.0% -1 4.0% -1 8.0% 1 8.0% 1 4.0% 1 0.0% 6.0% 2.0%
RUSSIA
-2.0% '97'98 '99 '00 '01'02 '03'04 '05'06 '07 '08'09 '1 0 -6.0% -1 0.0% -1 4.0% -1 8.0%
What has Changed? 1. Global economic expansion has clearly experienced a set-back 2. All notions of decoupling look ridiculous in hindsight the world is as connected as ever, perhaps more so 3. Risk level is clearly elevated and will remain that way until the flow of global capital is restored
What hasnt Changed? 1. The pursuit of greater prosperity continues 2. The path to prosperity remains clear:
Solid foundation for economic activity (i.e., infrastructure) Well functioning economic and regulatory frameworks Governments that are free of corruption and allow every individual to advance according to their abilities
Infrastructure as a priority
Infrastructure as Economic Stimulus The story remains the same: the global economy Is running a major infrastructure deficit as the cost of decades of underinvestment is now surfacing. Whats changing are the numbers. Estimates regarding the demand for infrastructure money are revised upward almost on a daily basis. The latest estimate suggests that the global economy will see between $25 and $30 trillion of fresh infrastructure investment in the coming two decades. In the US, we will see close to $150 billion a year of new infrastructure investment in coming decade, in Europe roughly $300 billion a year and in China, no less than $200 billion a year. Roughly 40% of this money will go to transport and almost one-third to power facilities (see chart)
Source: CIBC World Markets
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China
POPULATION BY REGION (08): 1.3 B*
Northeast (5%)
HEILONGJIANG JILIN HEBEI BEIJING SHI Beijing TIANJIN SHANXI SHANDONG GANSU XIZANG Chengdu SICHUANCHONGQING HUBEI SHAANXI HENAN ANHUI JIANGXI JIANGSU Shanghai SHANGHAI SHI ZHEJIANG Shenyang LIAONING
West (2%)
QINGHAI
NINGXIA
Bohai (18%)
FUJIAN TAIWAN
21 % of world population but only 7 % of global GDP as of 2008 Most of the current economy is centered in three regions along the eastern coast of the country Consumption in these three regions also drives the economies further inland, where much of Chinas agriculture and commodity industries are centered Major investments in infrastructure continue to drive strong economic growth, with maturity of the Chinese economy not likely until after 2030
* Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan are not considered part of China above see Southeast Asia
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China Infrastructure
CHINAS 4T RMB ECONOMIC STIMULUS TARGETING INFRASTRUCTURE (NOV. 2008)
Independent Innovation (.16 T, 4%) Healthcare/ Culture (.04 T, 1%)
Welfare Housing (.28T, 7%) Environment (.35T, 9%) Transportation/ Electricity (1.8T, 45%)
Brazil
S. Africa
Germany
UK UK
China
Germany
Russia
Japan
Saudi
India
US
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China Example
China Strategic Project: Earthquake Rebuild
Key Facts
Total Investment: $235 Billion in total Covered area of 132,596 square km, population of 19.8 Million Includes earthquake rebuild, new infrastructure, tourism and other projects that is beneficial to regional economic development
Sample of Projects
Dujiangyan-Yingxiu Expressway Rebuild: 1B Qingchuan County rebuild: 0.6B Beichuan County rebuild: 1.6B Quang minority cultural site building: 1B Jiulongmen international tourism site: 6B Chengdu International Logistic Park: 2.8B Earthquake Museum: 0.39B
Source: Public Source
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China Example
China Strategic Project: Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway
Key Facts
Total Investment: $32.3 Billion Total Length: 1318 KM, 21stations including Beijing, Tianjin, Jinan, Bengbu, Nanjing, Wuxi, Jiangsu and Shanghai. Designed speed: 350 km/h 5 hours from Beijing to Shanghai Construction period Commencement on April 2008, put into operation in 2010
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China Example
China Strategic Project: West to East Power Transmission
Key Facts
Total Investment: Over $77.4 Billion 3 Channels: North line from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi to North China; Central line form Sichuan to Central and East China; South line from Yunnan, Guizhouand Guangxi to South China Covered areas:Guizhou Yunnan, , Guangxi, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi Transmission area: Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing and Tianjin. Construction period: 2001 -2010
China Example
China Strategic Project: South to North Water Diversion
Key Facts
Total Investment: $71.4 billion Project Scope:
East-line-from low reach of Yangtze River to Tianjin of 1,156km. Mid-line-from middle reaches of Yangtze River to Beijing and Tianjin of 1,267km. West -line-transfer the water from upper reaches of Yangtze River to upper reaches of Yellow River. East line and Mid line has started construction. The approved investment for the first phase reached 254.6 billion Yuan 4.16 Billion RMB for East line and 18.23 Billion for Mid line has already been invested in December 2008
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India
Indian claim
JAMMU AND KASHMIR HIMACHAL PRADESH
CHINA
Chandigarh
PAKISTAN
UTTARANCHAL
HARYANA DELHI
UTTAR PRADESH
NEPAL
Gangtok BIHAR JHARKHAND WEST
East (24%)
North (31%)
CHHATTISGARAH
BURMA
South (21%)
MAHARASHTRA Mumbai (Bombay) ANDHAR PRADESH GOA KARNATAKA Bangalore TAMIL NADL KERALA LAKSHADWEEP
ORISSA
West (20%)
Rangoon
East (17%)
17% of world population but only 2 % of global GDP as of 2008 Economic activity is fairly evenly distributed but heavily concentrated near major cities Tier 2 cities are rapidly emerging centers for investments Recent high rates of growth are slowed by the financial crisis but above average growth is expected to continue long-term as more of India enters the modern world
North (28%)
South (26%)
West (26%)
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India Infrastructure
300 PPP projects, across sectors, are at various stages of implementation, with total project costs currently assessed at around USD 21.33 B
Sector Airports Energy Ports Roads Railways Urban development No of projects Project costs (M $) 6 32 38 186 3 35 4,008 3,560 2,763 9,511 201 1,287
Total
300
21,330
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India Example
Indian ports to be modernized to handle increased load with additional investments from private and public sectors Under consideration: Mumbai, Chennai P&O terminal, Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust Enore, Mundhra and Pipavav
Planned Capex
(11th Five Year Plan)
Total
Major Ports
Total Investment
Thru Pvt Sector Thru Govt
$ 7,186 M
$4,782 M $2,404 M
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India Example
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India Example
66,590 km of National Highways, with Govt continuing its phased initiatives to upgrade and strengthen them through the National Highway Development project ( NHDP)
Phase Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 5 Phase 6 Phase 7 Length (km) 7,498 6,647 4,035 6,500 1,000 700 Estimated Cost $ 6,000 M $ 6,868 M $ 10,867 M NA $ 3,336 M $ 3,336 M Status 95% complete 70% complete In progress To be tendered To be tendered To be tendered
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India Example
Kolkata Airport
Estimated Cost: $ 400 M Completion: 2011 Est Passenger traffic: 20 M Scope of Work: Extension of secondary runway, construction of rapid taxiways and aprons, up gradation of air traffic management, brand new integrated terminal building, communication, navigation and surveillance systems
Chennai Airport
Estimated Cost: $ 360 M Completion: 2011 Est Passenger traffic: 14 M Scope of Work: Extension of runway, suitability for operation of larger aircraft , upgrade of air traffic control systems and brand new terminal building
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India Example
Kashmir Railway Project
Route Length: 290 Km Gauge: 1676 mm Stations: 30 Scope: 158 Bridges, 20 tunnels Longest tunnel: 11km Max speed - 100km / hr One bridge will be the highest railway structure in the world.
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25
Russia/CIS
POPULATION BY REGION (08): 285 M
The Stans (21%)
Russia
Western CIS (29%)
Ukraine Kazakhstan
Russia (50%)
4 % of world population and 4% of global GDP as of 2008 Prior to the global financial crisis, Russia was experiencing rapid growth as the state utilizes natural resource wealth to modernize the economy with infrastructure investment Neighboring countries benefited from Russias growth and (in the Western CIS) increasing trade with eastern and western European neighbors Agriculture and commodities dominate the economies of The Stans, whose contribution to regional GDP is currently modest
Western CIS (19%) Russia (74%)
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Russia/CIS Infrastructure
Federal Capital Budget for Transportation Infrastructure
16 14 12 RUR (billions) 10 8 6 4 2 0 2006-2010 2010-2015 1.314 13.484
The Federal Capital budgeting documents planned a 10x increase in transport infrastructure spending prior to any stimulus plan. Russian stimulus amounts to a 25% increase in Federal spending However, Russian government response to crisis is to focus on supporting companies, potentially resulting in the delay of infrastructure investment Transport Ministry announced on January 22 the establishment of the State Transport Leasing Company with authorized capital of RUR 40 buillion ($1.2 bn) for the purpose of leasing approximately 10,000 units of construction equipment from Russian manufacturers.
Updating of Transportation System of Russia (2002-2010) Development of the Transportation System of Russia (2010-2015)
CAGR 6.4%
2,313
2,008
2,031
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 plan*
2009 plan
2010 plan
2011 plan
2012 plan
2013 plan
2014 plan
2015 plan
* 2008-2009 Targets of the Automobile roads 2006-2010; 2010-2015 Targets of the Development of the Transportation System of Russia (2010-2015)
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Event-driven projects in the region are also likely to continue, including investments supporting the APEC Summit in 2012, the World University Games in 2013, and the Sochi Olympics in 2014
Source: RosBusiness Consulting
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Russia/CIS Example
APEC Summit 2012 (Vladivostok) Contribution to the development of the Asian Pacific Economic Conference in 2012 in the city of Vladivostok.
Location: Russia, Vladivostok, Russky Island The governance of Russian State institute of urban planning and investment development Giprogor (Russia). The total program includes: Conference Center,International Press Center, Theatre and Opera House, Hotels, World Trade Center, Exhibition Center,Oceanografic Museum, Medical Center, Sports Facilities, Shopping Mall and Parking Facilities, the extension and reconstruction of new highways, the airport, and harbors.
Source:http://www.royalhaskoning.ru/en-us/projects/Pages/VladivostokSD.aspx
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Russia/CIS Example
World University Games 2013 (Kazan)
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Russia/CIS Example
World University Games 2013 (Kazan)
48 sport facilities to be built (in total about 400,000sqm) 5 new metro stations Reconstruction of Kazan ring road and airport
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Estimated Budget: USD 14 B (Start in 2009) Olympic Stadium, (40 thousand seats) Curling Ice Arena (3 thousand seats) Olympic Skating Center (figure skating 12 thousand seats). Olympic Oval - Speed Skating Centre (8 thousand seats) Bolshoi Ice Palace Ice Hockey, 12 thousand seats Ice Arena - Ice Hockey (7 thousand seats)
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34
Brazil (33%)
BOLIVIA PARAGUAY
Mexico (19%)
FALKLAND ISLANDS
9 % of world population and 7% of global GDP as of 2008 Brazil and Mexico represent over 60% of regional GDP Recent political and financial stability in these and other countries has enabled strong growth in the region High commodity prices and successful development of the regions mineral and oil reserve also contributed
Brazil (37%)
Mexico (25%)
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Brazil Infrastructure
PAC Growth Acceleration Project
A Five-Pillar Programme
Infrastructure
Credit and financing promotion
Total investment
Until 2010
12%
Logistics US$ 58.2 B
After 2010
US$ 506 B
66%
Energy US$ 334.4 B
22%
* USD Exchange rate as March 18, 2009 of *The original budgetuntil 2010 was US$ 221,9 bi,but was recentlyupdated
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Brazil Examples
Brazil PAC Projects
Example of Major Projects by Value
Energy Complexo Petroqumico Integrado Refinaria General Abreu e Lima Jirau Hydroelectric plant Angra 3 Nuclear Plant US$ 6.7 B US$ 4 B US$ 3.8 B US$ 4 B US$ 3 B Logistics High speed train Ferrovia Norte Sul / Trecho Sul Ferrovia Oeste / Leste Ferrovia Transnordestina Metro So Paulo / Linha 4 US$ 10.4 B US$ 2.2 B US$ 2.2 B US$ 1.9 B US$ 1.4 B
20% 11%
of the original budget has been invested of the projects are concluded
37
Mexico Infrastructure
National Infrastructure Program
Plan to improve the coverage, quality and competitiveness of Mexicos infrastructure
2007-2012
Total investment
US$ 226 B*
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Mexico Examples
Highways Electricity
Airports
* Source: www.infraestructura.gob.mx .
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PANAMA CITY, Panama March 3, 2009 On track and on time, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) continues to press ahead with the start of the bid process for the most important project under its Expansion Program - the construction of the new set of locks. Today, the ACP received proposals from three consortia competing to design and build the new, modern and state-of-the-art locks on the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the Panama Canal. The three consortia that submitted bids included: Consorcio C.A.N.A.L; Consortium Bechtel, Taisei, Mitsubishi Corporation and Consorcio Grupo Unidos por el Canal.
* Source: Panama Canal Authority
GATU N LAKE
CANAL RAILROAD /FIBER OPTIC TRANSISTHMIAN HIGHWAY PANAMERICAN HIGHWAY CENTENARY HIGHWAY PORTS AIRPORTS
Pacific Pacific
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Dubai: The Middle East aviation industry will see losses double this year, yet a combined investment of $60 billion (Dh220 billion) in airport development is underway in the region, Africa and the Asian subcontinent. The region is undergoing unprecedented airport expansion to cope with rising passenger traffic, which increased seven per cent last year despite the economic downturn, after 18.1 per cent growth in 2007, according to the Middle East Economic Digest. The Middle East, Africa and South Asia are all continuing significant airport investment. The UAE's heaviest investment is in the new Al Maktoum International at Jebel Ali. Worth $8 billion, it is set to become the largest airport in the world with an annual capacity of 120 million passengers. It is followed by $11.3 billion upgrade of King Abdul Aziz International Airport in Saudi Arabia, as well as other airports in the country. The development of Abu Dhabi International Airport comes next at $6.8 billion followed by Qatars $5.5 billion New Doha Airport
Sources: gulfnews.com, aeconline.com (Abu Dhabi photo), arinc.com (Qatar photo), daylife.com (Dubai photo)
Dubai
Qatar
Abu Dhabi
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Central Java
$543 million deal with Korean Consortium will Double Port Size and Create 5-Star Accommodation Complex at Benoa
Jakarta
The development of Benoa would provide a convenient cruise terminal with a location just minutes from Bali's international airport the Island's main tourism areas. Plans for the development of the Benoa port has reportedly commenced with the signing of a cooperation agreement with a consortium of 6 South Korean companies. Under the terms of that agreement the Korean partners will provide US$326 million for the development of port infrastructure and another US$217 million for the construction of 5-star accommodation and a traffic flyover.
Bali
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Due to the extensive warfare, most of Angola's infrastructure has been destroyed. There are 19,156 kilometers (11,903.5 miles) of paved roads and a total of 2,952 kilometers (1,834.4 miles) of rail tracks. Over 60% of them are not in working condition. There are 32 airports with paved runways and 217 with unpaved runways. Angolas government appears committed to addressing this and other infrastructural issues
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Key Messages
Pace of economic development is directly impacted by the on-going financial crisis but long-term, underlying drivers remain intact Infrastructure investment has been slowed in places but, onbalance, continues despite (if not because of) the economic crisis Infrastructure opportunities are global but, near term, will be strongest in countries who have the fiscal capacity and the policy mindset to fund aggressive stimulus Global infrastructure is an important opportunity for companys like Terex who have a portfolio of capabilities and the ability to execute globally
47