sharply

higher

when

compared to where it stood Wednesday. The summit meeting yesterday between French President Sarkozy, German Chancellor Merkel and the newly appointed Italian Prime Minister, Mr.

OUR SCHEDULE AT TGL FORTHANKSGIVING:The

markets are open here in the US but certainly theyi will be far more illiquid than usual given that most trading groups,banking,brokingfirms et al will be short staffed. TGL is appearing in a very short formatbutisincludinginclude our Rules of Trading, and after publication today offices willbeclosed.

has ended with the Monti, Friday,November25th,2011 French and the Italian

DennisGartman:Editor/Publisher leaders giving way entirely Phone7572389346Fax7572389546 to the demands and philosophies of the German leader, Emaildennis@thegartmanletter.com who like all German leaders before her in the Post-World LondonSales:DonaldBerman,AlberdonInternational War II period demands only that the central bank concern Phone:01144(0)7986221110
itself with keeping inflation in check and avoid any and all or perhaps more properly it is to say many and most attempts by a central bank to inflate its way to economic strength. after the This was evident very, summit meeting Mr. very publically yesterday when Sarkozy stood before the cameras and microphones of the assembled press and said

THE EUR VS C$: This

chart of the cross betweentheEURandthe C$ weekly over the past five years tells a huge story of the EURs continuous weakness. We are buyers today of the C$ and sellers of the EURandlikelysoonwill bedoingevenmore

OVERNIGHTNEWS: THEY LOVE THE US DOLLAR

and

Out of respect for the independence of this essential institution it was imperative to abstain from making demands positive or negative [of the ECB]. Sarkozys comments were followed immediately upon by those of his Foreign Minister, Mr. Juppe, who said of the ECB and the economy there in Europe that We have good [economic] fundamentals. What we dont have is trust [and] the ECB should play an essential role in reestablishing that trust.

They intensly dislike the EUR and the dollar is stronger relative to every other currency in our price matrix compared to where it stood yesterday morning. For our American clients who are just returning to their offices following the Thanksgiving Day holiday the dollar is rather

THES&P: Asnoted
here yesterday, the S&P has fallen into The Box marking the 5062%retracementof the bull run in October and it MUST HOLD HERE! If it does not hold at the bottom of The Box it will become veryuglyveryquickly.

Mr. Monti spent most of the postsummit press conferences as the bystander. He has no choice, for simply put he and Italy are there to accept what France and Germany tell them to do. The problem is that soon we fear that France shall lose its AAA rating and then France shall have

2
very little choice but to accept what Germany tells it to do a final perverse outcome of the entire pan-European assimilation movement, for the real intention of the monetary and political union was, after all, to force Germany to succumb to the demands of the rest of Europe. The endgame here is that it is but a matter of time until the German demands for a staunchly Bundesbank-like ECB are abandoned and the ECB finally does accept the fact that it shall have no choice but to come to the aid of the monetary and political unions and buy sovereign debt directly. QE is coming to Europe. It is not a matter of if, but only a matter of when, but for now the Germans have won the leadership role and have carried the day against such action. The day shall not be carried long however. It shall not be carried long. We say this in the light of the fact that both Ms. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy have spoken quite publicly about the need to make revisions to the Treaties at the centre of the political and monetary unions. Maastricht and Lisbon will be revised. They must be, for as Lord Keynes once said, When the facts change, I change; what do you do, Sir? And the facts of Europe are changing. The mere fact that both Sarkozy and Merkel have put the notion of revisions to the Treaties upon the table is sufficient to tell us that changes are coming. Those changes shall, in the end, mean changes for the ECB too it is inevitable: 11/25 11/24 Current Prev 77.40 77.15 1.3265 1.3378 .9255 .9185 1.5455 1.5540 1.0500 1.0445 .9675 .9765 .7395 .7435 14.25 14.12 1.8980 1.8670 31.64 31.39 52.15 52.09 6.3635 6.3635 The bullish technical case for gold is difficult at the moment and shall be so until $1700 for spot gold is taken out on the upside. Wednesday there was someone or some US$Change + .25 Yen + 1.13 Cents + .70 CHf + .85 Pence + .55 Cents + .90 Cents + .40 Cents + .03 Centavos + 3.10 Centavos + .25 Rubles + .06 Rupees unch Renminbi organisation making its presence known to one and all at that level, saying definitively that a stand is being taken there and that that stand is a serious one indeed. Until that seller is sated, gold is on the defensive. The bulls in gold and we still count ourselves as one but again we are only bullish of gold in EUR terms; we are not bullish of gold in dollar terms and for the moment that is the only thing that is saving our positions from oblivion have one strong force in their favour: the publics demand for gold remains strong. This is evident from the news out of Canada where The Royal Canadian Mint raised C$600 million in an initial public offering of securities tied to its gold reserves. This was twice what the Mint had hoped to receive for the Mint had hoped to raise C$250 million but Mkt Japan EC CHf UK C$ A$ NZ$ Mexico Brazil Russia India China Regarding gold, it is of course weak this morning as the dollar is strong, and although it gained upon the EUR Wednesday and Thursday, it is losing relative to the dollar and even relative to the EUR this morning materially in the case of the former, marginally in the case of the latter, but nonetheless importantly so. So long as the Germans are able to keep the ECB from buying margin European the sovereign economic debt at anything other than the fundamental for owning gold becomes a bit more tenuous. Gold Silver Palladium Platinum Gold/silver DJ/UBS Reuters CRB we shall have to come to the understanding that on balance the trend of commodity prices shall remain downward. We mustnt try to make it more complicated than that. Dollar strength trumps all other fundamentals, perhaps not in the most parochial terms, but certainly in the most catholic: 11/25 11/24 1675.0 1699.5 31.22 32.07 573.00 586.00 1530.0 1545.0 53.65 53.00 n.a. 142.43 n.a. 306.73

- 24.50 - .85 - 13.00 - 15.00 + .65% n.a. n.a.

COMMODITIES PRICES ARE WEAK AS THE DOLLAR STRENGTHENS

and until such time as this trend in the dollars favour weakens

3
uncommonly strong demand from both institutions and the course of the past day, the past week, the past month and of course the past year as fear and confusion reign. Until the situation in Europe is clarified, along with the fiscal circumstances here in the US, what shall be the propensity on the part of rational investors to stand up and be counted bullishly? We suspect that that propensity will be small and falling rather than high and rising, and given that it is our general thesis that all economics is nothing more than the study of peoples propensities to take action the trend is and shall remain toward lower rather than higher equity prices globally: Dow Indus CanS&P/TSX FTSE CAC DAX NIKKEI HangSeng AusSP/ASX Shanghai Brazil mkt closed down 86 down 12 unch down 29 down 5 down 240 down 60 down 18 up 308 11,258 11,485 5,128 2,822 5,428 8,160 17,720 3,984 2,380 55,280

individuals drove up the size of the sale, representing real physical gold bullion held in custody at the Mint.

CRUDE OIL IS MODESTLY WEAKER; NAT-GAS IS STRONGER and the markets are
taking their cues this morning of course from the strength in the US dollar and the weakness of the global equities markets. Too, the technicians are and will be even more drawing their attention to the reversal on the charts of several days ago when new highs were made in WTI crude and the day ended with prices closing hard upon their lows almost precisely upon the lows of the previous session a nearly classic, nearly text book reversal pattern. Everyone is preparing for the impending OPEC meeting in Vienna, which shall take place amidst what OPECs Secy General, Mr. Abdullah al-Badri, said would be a far less tense situation than at previous meetings. Speaking to the press recently, Mr. al-Badri said that It will be a comfortable meeting for OPEC in December. It will be a friendly meeting [and] there will be no arguments. You will not see the friction that you saw the last time. We can expect Iran and Venezuela the cartels most ardent hawks on production to make their cases yet again that production should be cut, but the Saudis will have none of that. The meeting will end as it begins: with the quotas held intact and with production held steady: JanWTI down 50 96.17-22 FebWTI down 50 96.37-32 MarWTI down 51 96.56-61 AprWTI down 51 96.69-74 MayWTI down 52 96.76-81 OPEC Basket $109.12 11/18 Henry Hub Nat-gas $3.12

TGL INDEX down 0.6% 6,893

ON THE POLITICAL FRONT

this morning we

thought wed take a look at what the first Thanksgiving celebrations really were about and how the colonies that celebrated those first Thanksgivings learned about economics, free enterprise and the idiocy of socialism and we wish to thank our old friend, Dr. David Janda, for bringing this wonderful piece to our attention:

The Great Thanksgiving Hoax

by Richard J. Maybury Each year at this time school children all over America are taught the official Thanksgiving story, and newspapers, radio, TV, and magazines devote vast amounts of time and space to it. It is all very colorful and fascinating. It is also very deceiving. This official story is nothing like what really happened. It is a fairy tale, a whitewashed and sanitized collection of half-truths which divert attention away from Thanksgiving's real meaning. The official story has the pilgrims boarding the Mayflower, coming to America and establishing the Plymouth colony in the winter of 1620-21. This first winter is hard, and half the colonists die. But the survivors are hard working and tenacious, and they

SHARE PRICES ARE WEAK ONCE AGAIN as our International Index has fallen another 40
points or 0.6%, bringing the weeks total losses to 301 points or 4.2%. For the year-to-date, our Index is down a stunning 1442 points, or perhaps an even more stunning 17.3%. The worlds net worth has fallen precipitously in

4
learn new farming techniques from the Indians. The harvest of 1621 is bountiful. The Pilgrims hold a celebration, and give thanks to God. They are grateful for the wonderful new abundant land He has given them. The official story then has the Pilgrims living more or less happily ever after, each year repeating the first Thanksgiving. Other early colonies also have hard times at first, but they soon prosper and adopt the annual tradition of giving thanks for this prosperous new land called America. The problem with this official story is that the harvest of 1621 was not bountiful, nor were the colonists hardworking or tenacious. 1621 was a famine year and many of the colonists were lazy thieves. In his History of Plymouth Plantation, the governor of the colony, William Bradford, reported that the colonists went hungry for years, because they refused to work in the fields. They preferred instead to steal food. He says the colony was riddled with "corruption," and with "confusion and discontent." The crops were small because "much was stolen both by night and day, before it became scarce eatable." In the harvest feasts of 1621 and 1622, "all had their hungry bellies filled," but only briefly. The prevailing condition during those years was not the abundance the official story claims, it was famine and death. The first "Thanksgiving" was not so much a celebration as it was the last meal of condemned men. But in subsequent years something changes. The harvest of 1623 was different. Suddenly, "instead of famine now God gave them plenty," Bradford wrote, "and the face of things was changed, to the rejoicing of the hearts of many, for which they blessed God." Thereafter, he wrote, "any general want or famine hath not been amongst them since to this day." In fact, in 1624, so much food was produced that the colonists were able to begin exporting corn. What happened? After the poor harvest of 1622, writes Bradford, "they began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, and obtain a better crop." They began to question their form of economic organization. This had required that "all profits & benefits that are got by trade, working, fishing, or any other means" were to be placed in the common stock of the colony, and that, "all such persons as are of this colony, are to have their meat, drink, apparel, and all provisions out of the common stock." A person was to put into the common stock all he could, and take out only what he needed. This "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need" was an early form of socialism, and it is why the Pilgrims were starving. Bradford writes that "young men that are most able and fit for labor and service" complained about being forced to "spend their time and strength to work for other men's wives and children." Also, "the strong, or man of parts, had no more in division of victuals and clothes, than he that was weak." So the young and strong refused to work and the total amount of food produced was never adequate. To rectify this situation, in 1623 Bradford abolished socialism. He gave each household a parcel of land and told them they could keep what they produced, or trade it away as they saw fit. In other words, he replaced socialism with a free market, and that was the end of famines. Many early groups of colonists set up socialist states, all with the same terrible results. At Jamestown, established in 1607, out of every shipload of settlers that arrived, less than half would survive their first twelve months in America. Most of the work was being done by only one-fifth of the men, the other four-fifths choosing to be parasites. In the winter of 1609-10, called "The Starving Time," the population fell from five-hundred to sixty. Then the Jamestown colony was converted to a free market, and the results were every bit as dramatic as those at Plymouth. In 1614, Colony Secretary Ralph Hamor wrote that after the switch there was "plenty of food, which every man by his own industry may easily and doth procure." He said that when the socialist system had prevailed, "we reaped not so much corn from the labors of thirty men as three men have done for themselves now."

Before these free markets were established, the colonists had nothing for which to be thankful. They were in the same situation as Ethiopians are today, and for the same reasons. But after free markets were established, the resulting abundance was so dramatic that the annual Thanksgiving celebrations became common throughout the colonies, and in 1863, Thanksgiving became a national holiday. Thus the real reason for Thanksgiving, deleted from the official story, is: Socialism does not work; the one and only source of abundance is free markets, and we thank God we live in a country where we can have them.
Reprinted from Mises.org.

THE TWENTY RULES OF TRADING: 2011

1. NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position will
lead to ruin. Count on it. All great market humiliations are first preceded by one man or one group doing precisely the opposite of this important rule: Ask the Nobel Laureates of Long Term Capital Management; ask Nick Leeson of Barings or, in the more modern world, ask Jon Corzine!!

9. TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the Good Times even ones errors are
profitable; in the inevitable Bad Times even the most well researched trade shall go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.

10.

KEEP

YOUR

SYSTEMS

SIMPLE:
breeds

Complication breeds confusion; elegance and profitability.

simplicity

11. UNDERSTANDING MASS PSYCHOLOGY IS ALMOST ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS: Or
more simply put, When theyre cryin you should be buyin and when theyre yellin you should be sellin!

2. TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always. 3. MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two types: mental and real,
and holding losing positions diminishes both the finite and measurable real capital and the infinite and immeasurable mental capital.

12. THERES NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH: The lesson of bad news is that more
shall follow usually hard upon and always with devastating impact.

13. BE PATIENT WITH WINNING TRADES; BE ENORMOUSLY IMPATIENT WITH LOSERS:

The older we get the more small losses we take and very willingly so.

4. WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH: We are in
the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness only more weakness.

15. DO MORE OF THAT WHICH IS WORKING AND LESS OF THAT WHICH IS NOT: This works
well in life as well as trading. If there is a secret to trading and to life this is it!

5. IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ONLY TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary,
obviously, is that in bear markets one must try only to be short or neutral. There may be exceptions, but they are rare.

16: CLEAN UP AFTER YOURSELF: Need we

really say more? Errors only get worse.

17. SOMEONES ALWAYS GOT A BIGGER JUNK YARD DOG: No matter how much work we
do on a trade, someone knows more and is more prepared than are we and has more capital!

6. MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT: So said Lord Keynes many years ago and
he was and is right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.

18: PAY ATTENTION: The market sends signals

more often than not, often disregarded so pay attention! times missed and/or

7. BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS:
Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest, fastest.

19: WHEN THE FACTS CHANGE, CHANGE!

Lord Keynes again once said regarding an investment

8. THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST;TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN: Be bullish when the technicals

and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem. Be bearish when they run the other way of course.

he had changed his mind upon that When the facts change, I change; what do you do, Sir? When the technicals or the fundamentals of a position change, change your position, or at least reduced your exposure and perhaps exit entirely.

20. ALL RULES ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN: But they are to be broken only rarely and
true genius comes with knowing when, where and why!

RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Long of Eight Units of Gold in EUR Terms:
Weve owned gold in non-US dollar terms for months, and we are long presently of eight units of gold vs. the EUR. As we write, gold is trading 1263 compared to 1260/oz. yesterday morning.

Short: We are short S&P & Euro Stoxx 50 futures to hedge the positions mentioned above. We are also short the Euro, Yen, and Pound Sterling.

The CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Notes portfolio for November is as follows: Long: 10% Canadian Dollars; 15%
Australian Dollars; 15% Gold; 10% Corn; 10% Wheat. Short: 20% Euro; 10% British Pound Sterling; 5% S&P 500 Index; 5% Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Index Horizons Gartman Fund (TSX: HAG): Yesterdays Closing Price on the TSX: $7.68 vs. $7.71 Yesterdays Closing NAV: $7.72 vs. $7.77 CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Deposit Notes Series 1-4; The Gartman Index: 129.69 vs. 130.30 previously. The Gartman Index II: 107.63 vs. 108.13 previously. Our thanks to Dr. Mark Perry for the wonderful chart this page detailing the massive growth in nat-gas production in the US in recent years as the Eagle Ford, the Marcellus, the Barnett, the Williston, the New Albany et al come on line and produce enormous sums of nat-gas, making the US a potential Saudi Arabia of shale-gas.

2. Long of nearby gold/short of more deferred gold futures: Given the situation
regarding Hugo Chavez and his gold, we bought nearby gold and sold deferred gold, thinking it possible that gold shall go into a backwardation.

NEW RECOMMENDATION:
The chart at the upper left of p.1 speaks what should be volumes to us. It is the weekly chart of the EUR/C$ Cross rate, and it is bearish of the EUR and manifestly so. The cross plunged the Canadian dollar gained materially relative to the EUR back in very late 09 and continued to plunge, falling from 1.6000 to 1.2500 in less than six months. From there, the cross has corrected in the EURs favour, rising from 1.2500 to the most recent Big Figure of 1.4500, taking nearly a year and one half to accomplish this correction. One of the great truths of the markets is that rallies that take three times as long as breaks to accomplish about half of what preceeded them are rallies into which to sell. Healthy markets do not take this long to regain half of what was previously lost; healthy markets regain that which was previously lost, plus more, in less time not more time than the break in price. This time the EUR is dragging behind the C$ and is about to go into another prolonged slide downward.

Good luck and good trading, Dennis Gartman

Disclaimer: This publication is protected by U.S. and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. This publication is proprietary and intended for the sole use of subscribers. No license is granted to any subscriber, except for the subscribers personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted, or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means, except as permitted under the subscription agreement or with the prior written permission of The Gartman Letter, L.C. (Gartman). Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this publication, message or any attachment is strictly prohibited.

We shall buy the C$ and we shall sell the EUR in equal sums this morning upon receipt of this commentary, noting that the cross is
presently trading just under 1.4000. Our risk on the trade shall be to 1.4175 and we look for something closer to 1.1900 1.2100 over the course of the next several months. This is not for the faint of heart, and it is not for the impatient, but it is to be done. The following is not a recommendation, a solicitation or an offer to sell the securities and reflects publicly available pricing information provided for informational purposes only. The Gartman Letter L.C. serves as a sub adviser to the products mentioned below. Investors in the CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Deposit Notes should go to:
https://cibcppn.com/ScreensCA/CANProductUnderlyings.aspx?ProductID=221&N umFixings=3 Existing investors in HAG should go to: http://jovian.transmissionmedia.ca/fundprofile_hap.aspx?f=HAG&c=&l

Each reproduction of any part of this publication or its contents must contain notice of Gartmans copyright. Pursuant to U.S. copyright law, damages for liability or infringing a copyright may amount to $30,000 per infringement and, in the case of willful infringement; the amount may be up to $150,000 per infringement, in addition to the recovery of costs and attorneys fees. Gartman is financial publisher, publishing information about markets, industries, sectors and investments in which it believes subscribers may be interested. The information in this letter is not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold or sell investments. Gartman is not permitted to offer personalized trading or investment advice to subscribers. The information, statements, views and opinions included in this publication are based on sources (both internal and external sources) considered to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Such information, statements, views and opinions are expressed as of the date of publication, are subject to change without further notice and do not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment referenced in the publication.

SUBSCRIBERS SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS REFERENCED IN THIS PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND OTHER INVESTMENTS, SUCH AS OPTIONS AND FUTURES, IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. SUBSCRIBERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

The following positions are indications only of what we hold in our ETF in Canada, the Horizons AlphaPro Gartman Fund, at the end of the previous trading day. We reserve the right to change our opinions at a moments notice and we reserve the right to take positions opposite of what maybe in our Notes and ETF from time to time as market conditions warrant. Long: We own an Asian short term government bond fund, corn, wheat, the C$, the A$, and gold.

Affiliates of Gartman serve as investment advisers to clients, including limited partnerships and other pooled investment vehicles. The affiliates may give advice and take action with respect to their clients that differs from the information, statements, views and opinions included in this publication. Nothing herein or in the subscription agreement shall limit or restrict the right of affiliates of Gartman to perform investment management or advisory services for any other persons or entities. Furthermore, nothing herein or in the subscription agreement shall limit or restrict affiliates of Gartman from buying, selling or trading securities or other investments for their own accounts or for the accounts of their clients. Affiliates of Gartman may at any time have, acquire, increase, decrease or dispose of the securities or other investments referenced in this publication. Gartman shall have no obligation to recommend securities or investments in this publication as result of its affiliates investment activities for their own accounts or for the accounts of their clients. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by electronic mail or telephone. This disclaimer applies to any trial subscription. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a fight.