Research Report GCISC-RR-08

Climate Change Projections over South Asia under SRES A2 Scenario using Regional Climate Model RegCM3

Shahbaz Mehmood, M. Adnan Abid, Faisal Syed, M. Mubashar Ahmad M. Munir Sheikh, Arshad M. Khan

s.

June 2009

Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan

Published by: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad-44000 Pakistan

ISBN: 978-969-9395-07-9

@GCISC

Copyright. This Report, or any part of it, may not be used for resale or any other commercial or gainful purpose without prior permission of Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan. For educational or non-profit use, however, any part of the Report may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement.

Published in: June 2009

This Report may be cited as follows: Mehrnood, S., M.A. Abid, F.S. Syed, M.M. Ahmad, M.M. Sheikh and A.M. Khan, (2009), Climate Change Projections over South Asia under SRES A2 Scenario using Regional Climate Model RegCM3, GCISC-RR-08, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan

CONTENTS

Foreword Preface List of Tables List of Figures List of Acronyms

11

IV VI
IX

1.

Introduction 1.1

Global Climate Models (GCMs) Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

1.2

2
2 3 4 4 4
6

2.
3. 4.

Data Methodology Validation

4.1

Validation over South Asia 4.1.1 Annual 4.1.2 Summer (JJAS) 4.1.3 Winter (DJFM) 4.1.4 Correlation and RMSE Validation over Pakistan

4.2
5.

8 10 14 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 22

Future Projections

5.1

Future projections over South Asia 5.1.1 5.1.2 5.1.3 Annual Change in Temperature Annual Change in Precipitation Seasonal Change in Temperature 5.1.3.1 Summer (JJAS) 5.1.3.2 Winter (DJFM) Seasonal Change in Precipitation 5.1.4.1 Summer (JJAS) 5.1.4.2 Winter (DJFM)

5.1.4

22
23

6-

Future Projections over Pakistan 6.1 Annual Change in Temperature Annual Change in Precipitation Seasonal Change in Temperature 6.3.1 Summer (JJAS) 6.3.2 Winter (DJFM) Seasonal Change in Precipitation 6.4.1 Summer (JJAS) 6.4.2 Winter (DJFM) Annual Cycles over Paki stan Summary over Pakistan

24 24 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 30
31

6.2 6.3

6.4 6.5 6.6

7. 8. 9. 10. 11 .

Future Projections for Climatic Zones of Pakistan Future Projections for Agro Climatic Zones of Pakistan Future Projections for Watershed Zones of Pakistan Conclusions Acknowledgments References

31 35 39 42 43 44

..

FOREWORD

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) was established in 2002 as a dedicated research centre for climate change and other global change related studies, at the initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, NI, HI, SI, the then Special Advisor to Chief Executive of Pakistan. The Centre has since been engaged in research on past and projected climate change in different sub regions of Pakistan; corresponding impacts on the country's key sectors; in particular Water and Agriculture; and adaptation measures to counter the negative impacts. The work described in this report was carried out at GCISC and was supported in part by APN (Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research), Kobe, Japan, through its CAPaBLE Programme under a 3-year capacity enhancement cum research Project titled "Enhancement of national capabilities in the application of simulation models for assessment of climate change and its impacts on water resources, and food and agricultural production", awarded to GCISC in 2003 in collaboration with Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). It is hoped that the report will provide useful information to national planners and policymakers as well as to academic and research organizations in the country on issues related to impacts of climate change on Pakistan. The keen interest and support by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Advisor (S & T) to the Planning Commission and useful technical advice by Dr. Amir Muhammed, Rector, National University for Computer and Emerging Sciences and Member, Scientific Planning Group, APN, throughout the course of this work are gratefully acknowledged.

Dr. Arshad M. Khan Executive Director, GCISC

PREFACE

Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) have been the primary tools for investigating future climate changes at global and regional levels. However, a disadvantage associated with AOGCMs is that they are generally of coarse horizontal resolution (~300 km x 300 km) which constrains their use to study the climate and its impacts on sub-regional scales. In order to overcome, this limitation, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used, which have the capability to represent the climate and its change at higher resolutions. Coupled with the regional topographic and land use data, the GCM datasets are used as the input lateral boundary conditions for RCMs to develop the high resolution climate information at regional scales. This study focuses on the development of high resolution climate change scenarios for South Asia region under SRES-A2 scenario using the Regional Climate Model RegCM3, developed by the Physics of the Weather and Climate (PWC) group of Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ASICTP), Italy. The model is run at 50 km horizontal resolution. Simulations for the period 1961-1990 represent the recent climate while simulations for the period 2040-2069 & 2071-2100 represent the future climate. These simulations are driven by the lateral boundary conditions from two GCMs i.e. ECHAM5 and FVGCM. The analysis is carried out for South Asia as well as for Pakistan. The results for Pakistan show that the temperature increases in the coming decades in summer will be higher than those in winter. In the case of precipitation, a decrease in summer precipitation has been projected by the model. The analysis is also carried out over different climatic zones, agro climatic zones and watersheds identified over Pakistan. The masking technique is applied to separate different regions. The analysis for agro climatic zones shows that the arid and semi-arid regions will have a larger temperature increase compared to humid and sub-humid regions in summer, while humid and sub-humid regions will have greater temperature increase in winter as compared to the arid and semi-arid regions. Furthermore the, ECHAM5 projections show relatively greater warming compared to FVGCM in all the zones. In the case of precipitation, both FVGCM and ECHAM5 show, throughout the time horizon, considerably higher precipitation increase in winter over arid region as compared to other regions. For summer months, ECHAM5 shows higher increase in precipitation in 2050s in the arid region compared to other regions but in 2080s, both ECHAM5 and FVGCM show reduced precipitation in the arid region and no change in precipitation or slightly increased precipitation in other regions. The results over different watershed basins show that FVGCM projects less warming as compared to ECHAM5 on annual as well as on seasonal basis. Both the models show that on seasonal basis more warming is to be expected over Kabul river catchment than over Jhelum river catchment

11

and Upper Indus Basin (UIB), while more precipitation is predicted over Upper Indus Basin (UIB) as compared to other watershed basins.

111

List of Tables

Table 1 Table 2

Annual and seasonal correlation, root mean square error (RMSE) and biases of temperature (C) over Pakistan

16 16

Annual and seasonal correlation, root mean square error (RMSE) and % biases of precipitation over Pakistan

Table 3 Table 4 Table 5

Projected changes of temperature (C) over Pakistan on seasonal and annual basis Area averaged values of projected changes of temperature (C) over Pakistan on seasonal and annual basis Projected changes of temperature different climatic zones of Pakistan

31 31 33 33 34
34

(C) on

annual basis over

Table 6

Projected changes of precipitation different climatic zones of Pakistan

(%) on annual basis over

Table 7

Projected changes of temperature (C) for summer (JJAS) over different climatic zones of Pakistan

Table 8

Projected changes of precipitation (%) for summer (JJAS) over different climatic zones of Pakistan

Table 9

Projected changes of temperature (C) for winter (DJFM) over different climatic zones of Pakistan

35

Table 10

Projected changes of precipitation (%) for winter (DJFM) over different climatic zones of Pakistan Projected changes of temperature (C) on annual basis over different agro- climatic zones of Pakistan Projected changes of temperature (C) for summer (JJAS) over different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan Projected changes of temperature (C) for winter (DJFM) over different agro-climatic of Pakistan

35

Table 11

37

Table 12

37

Table 13

37

IV

Table 14

Projected changes of precipitation (%) on annual basis over different agro- climatic zones of Pakistan Projected changes of precipitation (%) for summer (JJAS) over different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan Projected changes of precipitation (%) for winter (OJFM) over different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan Projected changes of temperature (C) on annual basis over different water shed zones of Pakistan Projected changes of temperature (C) for summer (JJAS) over different water shed zones of Pakistan Projected changes of temperature (C) for winter (DJFM) over different water shed zones of Pakistan Projected changes of precipitation (%) on annual basis over different water shed zones of Pakistan Projected changes of precipitation (%) for summer (JJAS) over different water shed zones of Pakistan Projected changes of precipitation (%) for winter (DJFM) over different water shed zones of Pakistan

38

Table 15

38

Table 16

39

Table 17

40

Table 18

40

Table 19

41

Table 20

41

Table 21

42

Table 22

42

List of Figures

Figure 1

South Asian domain for the scenario development showing surface elevation in meters (m) Mean 30 years (1961-90) annual climatology of temperature (C) (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3 Mean 30 years (1961-90) annual climatology of precipitation (mm/d); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3 Mean 30 years summer (JJAS) climatology of temperature (C); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3 Mean 30 years (1961-90) summer (JJAS) climatology of precipitation (mm/d); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3 Mean 30 years (1961-90) winter (DJFM) climatology of temperature (C); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3 Mean 30 years (1961-90) winter (DJFM) climatology of precipitation (mm/d); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3 Correlation maps of temperature; (a) ERA40 & CRU, (b) ECHAM5& CRU, (c) FVGCM & CRU Correlation maps of precipitation; (a) ERA40 & CRU, (b) ECHAM5 & CRU, (c) FVGCM & CRU RMSE maps of temperature; (a) ERA40 & CRU, (b) ECHA1v15 & CRU, (c) FVGCM & CRU

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

10

Figure 8

11

Figure 9

12

Figure 10

13

VI

Figure 11

RMSE maps of precipitation; (a) ERA40 & CRU, (b) ECHAM5 & CRU, (c) FVGCM & CRU Annual cycles (1961-90) of temperature (C) and precipitation (mm/d) for CRU, ERA40, ECHAM5 and FVGCM over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3 Annual change(C) in temperature; (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over South Asia Annual change in precipitation (%); a) ECHAM5-Fl, b) ECHAM5-F2, c) FVGCM- F2 over South Asia simulated by RegCM3 Seasonal. change in summer. (JJAS) temperature (OC); (a) ECHAM5-Fl (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over South Asia simulated by RegCM3 Seasonal change in winter (DJFM) temperature COC) for; (a) - ECHAMS-Fl, (b) ECHAMS-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over South Asia simulated by RegCM3 Seasonal change in summer (JJAS) precipitation (%), (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAMS-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over South Asia simulated by RegCM3 Seasonal change in winter (DJFM) precipitation (%); (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over South Asia simulated by RegCM3

14

Figure 12

15

Figure 13

18

Figure 14

19

Figure 15

20

Figure 16

21

Figure 17

22

Figure 1.8

23

Figure 19

Annual change in temperature (C);a) ECHAMS- Fl, (b) 24 ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3

Figure 20

Annual change in precipitation (%); (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) 25 ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated b~ RegCM3

Figure 21

Figure 22

Seasonal Change in Temperature COC) for summer; (a) ECHAMS-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3 Seasonal Change in Temperature COC) for winter; (a) ECHAM5-F1, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3

26

27

vii

Figure 23

Seasonal % Change in Precipitation for summer; (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3 Seasonal % Change in Precipitation for winter; (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3 Annual cycles of temperature (C) over Pakistan; (a) ECHAM5, (b) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3 Annual cycles of precipitation (mm/d) over Pakistan (a) ECHAM5, (b) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3 Climatic zones of Pakistan

28

Figure 24

29

Figure 25

30

Figure 26

30

Figure 27

32

Figure 28

Agro climatic zones of Pakistan; (a) Humid, (b) Subhumid, (c) Semi-arid and (d) Arid Watershed zones; (a) Upper Indus Basin (UIB), (b) Jhelum river catchment and (c) Kabul river catchment

36

Figure 29

39

V III

List of Acronyms

Most of the Acronyms and abbreviation, wherever they appear in text, are defined. However, some additional acronyms are included in this list. AOGCMs APN ASICTP BATS CRU DJFM ECMWF ECHAM5 ERA40 FvGCM GCM GCISC GHG GISST HadCM3 IPCC JJAS MM4 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models Asia Pacific Network Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Biosphere- Atmosphere Transfer Scheme Climate Research Unit December- January- February-March European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast GCM of Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Germany. ECMWF 40 years Reanalysis Dataset Finite - volume General Circulation Model General Circulation Model Global Change Impact Studies Centre Green House Gases Globally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change June-July- August- September Mesoscale Model version 4

IX

MPI

Max Planck Institute, Germany National Centre for Atmospheric Research Planetary Boundary Layer Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies Pakistan Metrological Department Physics of the Weather and Climate group, ICTP Regional Climate Models Special Report on Emission Scenarios Sea Surface Temperature
.~:

NCAR
PBL PRECIS PMD PWC
RCMs

SRES SST UIB WGS84

Upper Indus Basin World Geodetic System of 1984

1. Introduction
The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations derived from anthropogenic sources has produced measurable changes in global climate since preindustrial times. Increase in global mean annual temperature and decrease in Arctic sea ice are two examples of changes attributed to anthropogenic (GHG) emissions. A range of emission scenarios has been developed in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that reflect a number of different ways in which the world might develop (storylines). These climate change scenarios provide the best-available means of exploring how human activities may change the composition of the atmosphere, how these may affect global climate, and how the- resulting climate changes may impact upon the environment and human activities. These are thus the best tools available for projecting future conditions and consequently play an important role in impacts and adaptation research. They should not be viewed as predictions or forecasts of future climate, but as internally-consistent pictures of possible future climates, each dependent on a set of prior assumptions.

1.1 Global Climate Models (GCMs)

The most commonly and widely accepted method of scenario constructions involves the use of the output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), also known as General Circulation Models. GCMs are mathematical representations of the large-scale physical processes of the Earth-atmosphere-ocean system that provide a complete and internally consistent view of future climate change. The most recently - developed GCMs contain a representation of the changes in atmospheric composition on year-by-year basis from about 1860 to 1990, and are therefore able to simulate global-average conditions over this time period with much more reliability than earlier models. Recent GCMs are also able to model the effects of sulphate aerosols, which generally have a cooling effect on climate, as well as the warming effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Overall, these newer models tend to be more reliable than earlier ones, since they incorporate more processes and feedbacks and are usually of a higher spatial resolution. Despite improvements in GCM resolution and in the representation of some of the climate processes during the last few years, there are limitations still. For example, GCM scenario development is very time-consuming; running a single climate change experiment with a GCM for a particular emission scenario takes several months with the available computation resources which depend mainly on the resolution and complexity of the model. In addition, GCM output is still not available at a fine enough resolution to enable it to be used directly by most impact researchers. Therefore, GCM data are generally downscaled to produce gridded datasets of higher spatial resolution. This downscaling requires considerable time, and may introduce additional sources of error and uncertainty. Developments are currently under way, however, to improve model resolution and better representation of land-surface conditions.

1.2 Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

Regional climate modeling also known as dynamical downscaling (Giorgi and Mearns, 1991, 1999; McGregor, 1997, Christensen et al., 1998) is used to overcome the limitation posed by GCMs. In this approach, a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) is run with boundary data taken from a General Circulation Model (GCM). RCMs have the capability to represent the climate information on regional scales which is pre-requisite for assessing a country's vulnerability to climate change and for appropriate adaptation measures. RCMs are physically based models and represent most of the processes, interactions and feedbacks among the climate system components that are represented by GCMs. In addition to this, RCMs account for mesoscale forcings such as complex topography and regional water bodies that modify the regional climate in a much better way as compared to GCMs. The typical resolution of an RCM is about 50 km in the horizontal. Over the past 10 years, significant amount of work has been done to develop the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). There is now a high degree of interest among the impacts and adaptation researchers for data downscaled locally and regionally by RCMs. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have improved our understanding of the effects of global climate change on specific regions. Recently, scenarios developed using these models have been applied in a variety of impact assessments such as temperature extremes (Mearns, 1999); water resources (Leung and Wigmosta, 2003); agriculture (Mearns et al., 1998, 1999,2000) and forest fires. To develop the fine scale scenarios for our region, we use the regional climate model called RegCM3 developed by the Physics of the Weather and Climate (PWC) group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ASICTP), Trieste, Italy which is the third generation of the RegCM originally developed at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). An important aspect of the RegCM3 is that it is user friendly and operates on a variety of computer platforms. It has been observed that models generally perform well over their native domains but the performance needs to be improved on other domains by adjusting different parameters in the model. For this reason we have conducted a number of test experiments to validate the model for our region before developing the scenarios.

2. Data
To provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions, forty-years European Re-Analysis data of the Global Atmosphere (ERA40), Max Planks Institute's ECHAMS and Finite Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), USA are used. ERA40 is the computerized weather data from 1957 to August 2002. The data has been worked out by the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This dataset is available at a resolution of 2.5 x 2.5 The base period data used in these experiments is from 1961-1990 (30 years). The FVGCM dataset is available at a resolution of 10 x 1.250 and the ECHAMS at a resolution of 2.80 x 2.80 The 60 year future period for ECHAMS is divided into two parts of 20402069, 2071-2100 each of 30 years time slice. The FVGCM future period comprises a 30 year period from 2071-2100. For the meteorological observations over land, we use the Climate Research Unit CRU TS 2.0 dataset (Mitchell et a1., 2003), which includes monthly surface air temperature and precipitation for the period 1901-2000 on a regular global 0.5degree land surface grid. This dataset revises and extends the original dataset of New et al. (2000). It should be

noted that in areas with sparse station coverage, the CRU dataset interpolates grid point values from the nearest available stations. This may thus add a significant element of uncertainty. The observed SSTs are provided by the Globally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) dataset. GISST describes data which are derived from Met Office Historical Sea Surface Temperature (MOHSST6). Sophisticated statistical methods are used to produce a global coverage of monthly one-degree-area sea surface temperatures (Rayner, N.A, et al 1996). Data is available in monthly 1 area grids, from 1871 to February 2003. To run the domain, the Global Land Cover Characterization (GLCC) data at a resolution of 10 min and surface elevation data called GTOP030 has been used. GTOP030 is a global topography data. The horizontal grid spacing is 30-arc seconds (0.008 degrees). The horizontal coordinate system is in decimal degrees of latitude and longitude referenced to WGS84. The vertical units represent elevation in meters above mean sea level.

3. Methodology
This study focuses on the development of climate change scenarios over South Asia with RegCM3 using the coarse resolution data of two GCMs, ECHAMS & FVGCM. For the scenario experiments, three time slices have been selected, one in base i.e. 1960-1990 and the two time slices in future namely Fl (2040-2069) and F2 (2071-2100). For the base period, the model is run with ERA40, ECHAM5 and FVGCM datasets while for future the model is driven by ECHAMS_for both Fl and F2 while FVGCM simulations are being performed only for F2. The model is run at a horizontal resolution of 0.44 (~50 km) with 18 vertical levels. The number of grid points taken in x and y direction are 111 and 120 respectively covering South Asia from 5 to 50 North and 55 to 100 East. To validate and compare downscaled data, CRU data set (New et al, 1999) of monthly mean temperature on O.S degree resolution is used. Model output is first regridded to regular lat /lon grids (dx=dy=50km) to make the comparison possible. To validate the model, the climatology of downscaled ERA40 data was compared with CRU climatology for annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperature. Similarly for the validation of downscaled GCM data sets, the comparison of annual and seasonal mean climatology of ECHAMS and FVGCM is performed with CRU climatology. The domain selected for scenario runs is shown in Fig.I. As we go northward, the domain topography becomes more and more complex as the altitude goes up to 5.5 km.

Figure 1:

South Asian domain selected for the scenario development showing surface elevation in meters (m)

4. Validation
The model is validated for the base period comprising 30 years from 1961 to 1990 using CRU data set for the purpose of comparison on annual and seasonal basis.

4.1 Validation over South Asia

30 years climatologies of the downscaled ERA40, ECHAM5 and FVGCM with RegCM3 are compared with CRU observations. The variables analyzed on annual and seasonal basis are mean temperature and precipitation.

4.1.1 Annual
Fig. 2(a, b, c, d) shows the average annual temperature over the whole domain simulated through RegCM3 runs with ERA40, ECHAM5, FVGCM and observations from CRU. The model is cooler than observations over Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, most parts of India and some parts of Southern and Northern Pakistan. However, RegCM3 results over Nepal and rest of Pakistan are in close agreement with the CRU. Annual average precipitation is shown in Fig 3(a, b, c, d). The RegCM3 driven simulations overestimate over Northern Pakistan and Western Ghats of India when compared with CRU. However the overall pattern is well captured by the model.

(a)

(b)

30

25
20

'"
E

15 10

(C)

Cd)

0 -5 -10

Figure 2:

Mean 30 years (1961-90) annual climatology for temperature (C); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3

Figure 3:

Mean 30 years (1961-90) annual climatology for precipitation (mm/d); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3

4.1.2 Summer (JJAS)

The model temperature results for summer (JJAS) show cold bias over Northern Pakistan, Southern India and Sri Lanka in all the three cases i.e. ERA40, ECHAM5 and FVGM when compared with CRU as shown in Fig 4(a, b, c, d).

2. 1.

(a)

(b)

Figure 4:

Mean 30 years (1961-90) summer (JJAS) climatology for temperature (C); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3

Figure 5(a, b, c, d) compares monthly averaged summertime precipitation from the CRU observations to those from the RegCM3 simulations. The model simulated precipitation pattern is in close agreement with the CRU except for some parts of Southern Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Western Ghats of India where the model overestimates. The model also gives cold bias over some portion in Central Pakistan for FVGCM and ECHAM5 experiments.

Figure 5:

Mean 30 years (1961-90) summer (JJAS) climatology for precipitation (mm/d); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3.

4.1.3 Winter (DJFM)

In winter, temperature pattern is reasonably well captured by the model for the whole domain. However, cold bias is observed over Bangladesh and at some places in Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka as shown in Fig 6(a, b, c, d).

3.

Figure 6:

Mean 30 years (1961-90) winter (DJFM) climatology of temperature (C); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3

The results for winter precipitation are shown in Fig 7(a, b, c, d). The model driven simulations overestimate over Northern Pakistan, Bangladesh and some portions of India. However, the system coming from the west in the Northern Areas of Pakistan is well captured by the model. For the remaining domain, the results are quite reasonable.

5. 4.

Figure 7:

Mean 30 years (1961-90) winter (DJFM) climatology of precipitation (mm/d); (a) CRU, (b) ERA40, (c) ECHAM5, (d) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3

4.1.4 Correlation and RMSE In all the experiments, correlation and root mean square error (RMSE) of the model output with CRU data are examined for the whole domain. In case of temperature Fig 8(a, b, c), the value of correlation coefficient is above 0.9 over Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and most parts of India for all experiments showing that model has performed very well to capture the over all monthly variation of the climate. However, the values for FVGCM and ECHAM5 are between 0.8 and 0.9 in some parts of Southern India which are again reasonably good. In case of precipitation (Fig 9(a, b, c)), the correlation in all the runs is reasonably good over Bangladesh, Nepal and over most parts of India. However for

10

Pakistan, the value of correlation coefficient ranges from 0.4 to 0.6 for ERA40 and 0.3 to 0.6 for ECHAM5 and FVGCM over most parts, which is reasonably good in case of precipitation. However, the results for FVGCM driven simulations over south western parts of Pakistan give very poor results showing almost no correlation. 6.

Figure 8:

Correlation maps of temperature; (a) ERA40 & CRU, (b) ECHAM5 & CRU, (c) FVGCM & CRU

11

Figure 9:

Correlation maps of precipitation; (a) ERA40 & CRU, (b) ECHAM5 & CRU, (c) FVGCM & CRU

In case of RMSE, the model gives quite good results for temperature with ERA40 dataset over Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and most parts of India and Pakistan except for some regions of Northern Pakistan and at some places in the South of India where the error is comparatively high (Fig 10(a)). However, the model performance is not satisfactory over Nepal and Northern Pakistan. In case of ECHAM5 and FVGCM datasets (Fig l0(b, c)), the error is greater than ERA40 which is obvious because the GCM datasets have more built in errors than reanalysis dataset; nevertheless patterns in all the runs are somewhat similar.

12

Figure 10:

RMSE maps of temperature; (a) ERA40 & CRU, (b) ECHAM5 & CRU, (c) FVGCM & CRU

The error in precipitation in all the experiments (Fig II(a, b, c) ranges from 1 to 4 mm/day over most parts of the domain illustrating that the performance of the model in simulating precipitation pattern is reasonable especially for Southern Pakistan the results are quite accurate. However, the accuracy is quite low in Western Ghats of India, over Sri- Lanka and in some parts of Bangladesh and Northern Pakistan.

13

Figure 11:

RMSE maps of precipitation; (a) ERA40 & CRU, (b) ECHAM5 & CRU, (c) FVGCM & CRU

4.2 Validation over Pakistan

Annual cycles of temperature and precipitation (Fig 12(a, b) for ERA40, ECHAM5 and FVGCM datasets downscaled by RegCM3 are compared with that of CRU. The results for temperature show that the model has captured the overall variability very well in all the cases. However, the model shows cold bias from July to December over Pakistan. In case of precipitation, the monsoon peak is well simulated by the model in all the cases though there is a difference in values. The model overestimates precipitation in all the cases with maximum bias given by FVGCM driven simulation.

14

Figure 12:

Annual cycles (1961-90) of temperature (C) and precipitation (mm/d) for CRU, ERA40, ECHAM5 and FVGCM over Pakistan

Tables 1 and 2 show correlation, root mean square error (RMSE) and differences of the model simulated temperature and precipitation in combination with ERA40, ECHAM5 and FVGCM compared to CRU averaged over Pakistan. The results for temperature (Table 1) show that the model gives cold bias over Pakistan with all the datasets. At annual scale, the biases are higher in case of FCVGM as compared to the other datasets. Similar is the case for winter and summer season. The correlation is very high (close to 1) in all the cases. In case of RMSE, the error in all the datasets is less in winter as compared to summer and annual scale. This shows that model is performing better in winter and the biases will be less as compared to summer and annual scale. In case of precipitation (Table 2), FVGCM driven simulations show less bias in winter as compared to the simulations with ECHAM5 and ERA40 whereas in summer, FVGCM results give more bias than ECHAM5 and ERA40. In comparison of FVGCM and ECHAM5, ECHAM5 gives better results in summer and on annual basis whereas FVGCM shows better results in winter. The RMSE in winter is less as compared to ECHAM5. Similarly correlation is quite high for the model output with ERA40 and ECHAM5 as compared to FVGCM. RMSE is less in case of ERA40 as compared to ECHAM5 and FVGCM which shows that the model driven by re-analysis dataset gives better performance than the model driven by GCM dataset.

15

Table 1

Annual and seasonal correlation, root mean square error and biases of temperature (C) over Pakistan

Temperature difference (C) over Pakistan Correlation RMSE Bias

RegCM3-ERA40 Annual Summer Winter

0.99 0.98 0.99 1.59 1.63 0.45 -1.03 -1.54 -0.31

RegCM3-ECHAM5 Annual Summer Winter

0.99 0.95 0.99 2.87 3.14 1.96 -2.0 -2.97 -1.38

RegCM3-FVGCM Annual Summer Winter Table 2:

0.99 0.93 0.97 3.18 3.35 1.97 -2.53 -3.23 -1.8

Annual and seasonal correlation, root mean square error and % biases of precipitation over Pakistan

Precipitation %age difference over Pakistan Correlation RMSE % Bias

RegCM3-ERA40 Annual Summer Winter

0.90 0.81 0.99 0.95 0.83 0.81 76.73 57.52 104.31

RegCM3-ECHAM5 Annual Summer Winter

0.92 0.97 0.91 1.59 1.90 0.92 125.06 l30.71 155.24

RegCM3-FVGCM Annual Summer Winter

0.71 0.79 0.89 1.91 2.73 0.43 140.95 205.51 32.53

16

5. Future Projections
The future changes in the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation are discussed with respect to base for the whole domain on annual and seasonal basis. The analysis is done for South Asia as well as for Pakistan.

5.1 Future Projections over South Asia

5.1.1 Annual Changes in Temperature
In case of temperature changes (Fig 13(a, b, c)); the model overestimates in all the experiments for the whole domain. For ECHAM5-Fl (Fig 13(a, the model gives 2 to 3 C rise in temperature over Pakistan and Nepal, 1.75 to 2.25 C over Bangladesh and most parts of India while 1.75 to 2 C at Sri Lanka. In ECHAM5-F2 (Fig 13(b), the model gives higher temperatures in the whole domain compared to ECHAM5-F1 which is obvious as we are using A2 scenario. A temperature rise of 4 to 6 C is simulated by the model over Pakistan. The model gives maximum warming over northern areas of Pakistan where a temperature rise of 6 C is simulated. As for as India is concerned, temperature difference is as high as 5.5 C in the north and as low as 3C in the south. In case of Nepal, temperature difference lies in the range of 3.5 to 5 C and for Bangladesh, it ranges from 3.5 to 4 C. For FVGCM-F2 (Fig 13 (c)), the model projects minimum rise in temperature over Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, southern and eastern parts of India (2.5 to 3 C) while maximum rise is observed over some parts of northern and southern Pakistan (4.5 to 5 C). For the remaining areas of Pakistan, the values lie between 3 to 4.5 C For Nepal, the values range from 2.5 to 4 C

17

7.

Figure 13:

Annual change in temperature COC); (a) ECHAMS-Fl, (b) ECHAMS-F2 (c) FVGCM-F2 simulated by RegCM3

5.1.2 Annual Changes in Precipitation Fig. 14 represents the annual percentage change in precipitation over South Asia for the ECHAMS (Fl and F2) and FVGCM- F2 datasets downscaled by RegCM3. Fig 14(a) represents the precipitation percentage change in ECHAM-Fl. There is a decrease of about 10-20 % in the southern and coastal areas of Pakistan, whereas no significant change is observed over India, Bangladesh and Nepal. Fig. 14(b) represents the ECHAM5-F2 precipitation percentage change over South Asia. Over Pakistan, there is a decrease of about 10 - 50 %. A significant reduction of precipitation is observed over the coastal belt, in Sindh and Balochistan regions. The model did not show a significant change over India except over a part of Western Ghats, where the increase in precipitation is about 10-20 %. In Bangladesh and most of Nepal, no significant change in precipitation has been observed. Fig. 14(c) represents FVGCM -F2 precipitation percentage change over South Asia. In southern regions of Pakistan, which comprise Sindh, parts of Balochistan and southern part of Punjab, a 10- 30% decrease in precipitation has been observed. The model predicts a significant change over India, the large increase of precipitation is observed over Western Ghats, in central and Eastern Part of India. In Bangladesh, a large increase of

18

precipitation of about 30 - 100 % has been predicted by the model, whereas no significant change is observed over Nepal. 8. Comparing, Fig. 14 (b) and Fig. 14 (c), the spatial pattern of the precipitation at the annual scale seems to be the same except for the numerical values. A large reduction is observed in ECHAM5- F2 as compared to FVGCM- F2 over Southern region of Pakistan, whereas in Mountainous region of Pakistan, the increase in precipitation predicted by ECHAM5- F2 is between 10- 20 % significant as compared to FVGCM-F2. Over India and Bangladesh, FvGCM-F2 shows a significant change in precipitation at annual scale as compared to ECHAM5-F2, whereas over Nepal both the GCMs show a similar pattern i.e. no significant change in precipitation over most of Nepal.

Figure 14:

Annual change in precipitation (%); (a) ECHAM5-F1, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM- F2 simulated by RegCM3

5.1.3 Seasonal Changes in Temperature 5.1.3.1 Summer (JJAS) Fig. 15 represents the average change in temperature for summer (JJAS) season for Fl and F2 scenarios over South Asia. Fig 15(a), describes temperature change in summer (JJAS) for ECHAM- F1 scenario over South Asia. The model shows a rise of temperature over whole of South Asia. The maximum rise is observed over Balochistan, Central Punjab, Sindh and in the Northern region of Pakistan. The rise is about 2.5- 3.5

19

C. The maximum rise is observed over Afghanistan, which is about 4.5 "C, In India, Bangladesh and Nepal, the rise is about 1 - 2C. Fig I 5 (b), describes temperature change for summer (HAS) for ECHAM- F2 scenarios over South Asia. The rise of above 4 C is observed over different parts of Pakistan. The maximum rise of about 6 - 7 C has been predicted by the model over northern region of Pakistan and parts of Sindh province of Pakistan. Over the south and south east ofIndia and Nepal, the values range from 3.5 to 4 C while for Western Ghats of India and for Bangladesh, these lie between 3 - 3.5 C. Fig I5(c), describes temperature change for summer (HAS) season for FVGCM-F2 scenarios over South Asia. It projects less warming compared to ECHAM5-F2. The maximum rise of about 4 - 6 C has been predicted by the model in central Punjab, most of the southern and northern region of Pakistan. Over India, the rise in temperature ranges from 2 - 3.5 C. The minimum temperature rise has been observed in Bangladesh, which is around 2 - 2.5 C, and similar range is observed over Western Ghats of India.
9.

In comparing F2 scenarios for ECHAM5 and FVGCM, ECHAM5 is much warmer as compared to the FVGCM. The change in temperature at the topographically complex regions is high as compared to other regions; this may be because of the limitations of the model to resolve the complex topography of the region.

Figure15:

Seasonal change in summer (HAS) temperature (C); (a) ECHAM5-Fl (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 simulated by RegCM3

5.1.3.2 Winter (DJFM) Fig. 16 represents the average change in temperature for winter (DJFM) season for the FI and F2 futures for ECHAM5 and F2 future for FVGCM over South Asia. Fig I6(a) represents the ECHAM5-FI for winter (DJFM) season. The maximum increase of about 2 - 2.75 C has been observed over the desert region and Northern region of Pakistan. The

20

warming of about 2.25 - 2.75C has been observed over Afghanistan region. Over India, the maximum rise is about 2C, which is less as compared to the projected temperature over Pakistan. Interestingly, the rise over the Himalayan region is also high, which may catalyze the melting of ice over the mountains. In Bangladesh and regions of Nepal bordering India, the value ranges from 1.5 - 1.75 C while in the north of Nepal, the rise of about 2.2S - 2.S C has been predicted by the model. In Sri Lanka, the rise in temperature is about 1.75 C. ECHAMS-F2 (Fig 16(b)) shows more warming over Pakistan. The rise of about 4 - 6 C has been simulated by the model. The increase in temperature over northern region of Pakistan is more as compared to the other regions. This shows that it may lead to the increase in the frequency of extreme events in the region. In India, the warming is more in central and southwestern parts of India. In Nepal, the warming is more over the north of Nepal, whereas less warming is observed in southern Nepal. In Bangladesh, the increase in temperature is about 3.5 - 4 C. 10.
FVGCM-F2 (Fig 16(c)) projects less warming as compared to ECHAMS-F2 for the whole domain. In Pakistan, the warming of about 4 - 5 C has been simulated by the model over the desert region, part of Sindh province, and over the Northern region of Pakistan. This result is consistent with the projection made by the ECHAM- F2. In India, the rise of about 3 - 4 C has been simulated by the model. Over Bangladesh, an increase of about 2.5- 3 C has been predicted by the model. Over Nepal the rise in temperature is more over the north of Nepal as compared to the southern region of Nepal.

Figure 16:

Seasonal change in winter (DJFM) temperature (0C); (a) ECHAMS-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 simulated by RegCM3

21

5.1.4 Seasonal Changes in Precipitation 5.1.4.1 Summer (JJAS) ECHAM5-Fl (Fig 17(a)) shows an increase in precipitation of about 10 - 50% over the Northern Balochistan region of Pakistan, whereas a decrease in precipitation of about 10 % has been observed over southern parts of Pakistan. An increase of about 50 % has been observed over north western region of India, and about 10 % increase has been observed over Western Ghats of India. Over Nepal, 10- 20% increase of precipitation has been observed over western part of Nepal. For Bangladesh and rest of the domain, no significant change in future precipitation has been observed.
In case of ECHAM5-F2 (Fig 17(b)), the model shows a decrease of about 100% in precipitation in the southern areas of Pakistan while no significant change is observed over the northern region of Pakistan. There is no considerable change in future precipitation over rest of the domain except for some parts of Nepal, Bangladesh and India. FVGCM-F2 (Fig 17(c)), predicts a decrease of about 50% in the northern areas of Pakistan and no significant change over the rest of Pakistan. The model has also simulated increases over Bangladesh, Western Ghats of India, some central part of India, and north western part of Nepal. The comparison of ECHAM5-F2 and FVGCM-F2 shows the spatial pattern of changes in precipitation is quite similar. The change in precipitation in both the cases is prominent in some parts of the domain and the results seem to be consistent in both the cases. For the remaining domain, there is no considerable change in precipitation.ECHAM5 turns out to be wetter then FVGCM.

11.

Figure 17: Seasonal change in summer (JJAS) precipitation (%); (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over South Asia simulated by RegCM3

12.

5.1.4.2 Winter (DJFM) In winter, for ECHAMS-Fl, the model predicts a decrease of upto 30% in precipitation over central and Southern region of Pakistan as shown in Fig. 18 (a), whereas an increase of upto 20 % has been observed over northern region of Pakistan. The increase of up to 30 % has been observed over most of India and northern Pakistan while an increase of almost SO% is observed over Bangladesh. The maximum increase of up to 200% is estimated by the model in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh and deserts of Pakistan and India whereas for summer, the model shows a decrease in precipitation for the same region which means that we would have more rains in winter in deserts and dry conditions in summer. For Sri Lanka model gives decrease of about 10 ~ 20 % in precipitation in winter.

ECHAMS-F2 (Fig l8(b )), predicts an increase of about 1 0- 40 % in central and western parts of India. Over Bangladesh, an increase of about 10 ~ 20 % has been predicted by the model. A decrease of about 2S% has been projected over narrow strip starting from northern areas of Pakistan and extending up to Nepal. It means that in the first half of this century Bangladesh, Nepal and northern areas of Pakistan would experience more rains but in the later half, dry conditions would prevail in these regions. The results for Sri Lanka are same as in case of ECHAMS-Fl. FVGCM-F2 (Fig 18(c)) underestimates precipitation compared to ECHAMS-F2 for the whole domain. FVGCM gives 2S to 50 % increase in precipitation for Sri Lanka and in some parts of northern Pakistan whereas ECHAMS shows about 25 % decrease for the same regions. Similarly for central Pakistan, FVGCM gives a decrease of about 25% while ECHAMS gives an increase of up to 100%. As for as remaining part of domain is concerned, FVGCM projects 25 to 100 % increase over most of India, up to SO% decrease over Nepal and 2S% decrease in Bangladesh.

Figure 18:

Seasonal changes in winter (DJFM) precipitation (%); (a) ECHAMS-Fl, (b) ECHAMS-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over South Asia simulated by RegCM3

23

13. 16. 15. 14.

6. Future Projections over Pakistan 6.1 Annual Changes in Temperature

Fig. 19 shows the future projections over Pakistan. Over the South Asian domain, the Pakistan region was masked to focus changes for the future climate. This analysis helped to examine the climate changes over Pakistan to help study their impact over water resources and agriculture. In case of ECHAM5-Fl (Fig 19(a)), the model predicts a 2 - 3 C rise in temperature over Pakistan. The rise of 2.4- 2.6 C has been observed over Balochistan, desert areas, part of central Punjab and part of Sindh province. The rise of 2.8 - 3 C has been observed over the Northern region of Pakistan. ECHAM5-F2 (Fig 19(b)), predicts a rise of about 4.4 - 5.8 C over most parts of Pakistan. A temperature rise of about 5 - 5.8 C has been predicted by the model over the Northern region and South-eastern regions of Pakistan. This value is higher compared to the prediction made by the IPCC for the A2 scenario. FVGCM-F2 (Fig 19(c), projects a less rise in temperature as compared to the ECHAM5-F2 projections. The spatial patterns are in close agreement for both the datasets, as more warming is observed over the Northern region of Pakistan, desert areas and part of southern punjab as compared to the other regions of Pakistan.

Figure 19:

Annual change in temperature (C); (a) ECHAM5- Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3

24

17.

6.2 Annual Changes in Precipitation

Overall precipitation pattern in all the experiments is similar (Fig 20(a, b, c)); however there is a difference in the magnitude. ECHAM5-FI, (Fig 20(a)) did not show a significant change in precipitation over Pakistan on annual basis. The spatial pattern shows an increase of precipitation over Northern region and decrease of precipitation over Southern region of Pakistan but the inc ease is not significant. Overall an increase of about 5 - 15% in different regions in Northern areas has been predicted by the model for the FI, whereas a decrease of 10 - 20 % has been predicted by the model in different region of Southern Pakistan. ECHAM5-F2 (Fig. 20(b)) has predicted an increase in precipitation of about 5 - 20 % in Northern region of Pakistan, whereas a decrease in precipitation of about 5 - 50% in Southern region, 5 - 30 % in Central Punjab & Balochistan region has been predicted by the model In some parts of Balochistan and NWFP, an increase of precipitation of about 10- 20 % has been predicted. In southern Punjab, the decrease in precipitation has been predicted by the model, whereas no significant change has been observed over Monsoon belt in Punjab region of Pakistan. FVGCM-F2 (Fig. 20(c)), projects a decrease by about 20 - 30 % over the desert areas, 5 - 20 % over central and southern Punjab and about 510% decrease over some parts of Balochistan. An increase of about 5 - 20 % has been predicted by the model over Northern region and some parts of the NWFP region of Pakistan. No significant change has been observed in the Monsoon belt of Pakistan at annual scale.

Figure 20:

Annual change in precipitation (%); (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b)) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3

25

18.

6.3 Seasonal Changes in Temperature

6.3.1 Summer (JJAS) ECHAMS-F1 (Fig. 21(a, shows a rise in temperature of about 1.9 - 3.7 C all over Pakistan. The maximum rise in temperature has been observed over north-western region of Pakistan. The rise of about 2.S - 3.1 C has been simulated by the model over Balochistan, desert areas and part of Sindh Province. ECHAMS-F2, (Fig. 2 1 (b) projects a rise of about 2 - 8 C all over Pakistan. The greater rise is observed over Northern region and desert areas of Pakistan. In north western part, a rise of about S - 8 C is observed, whereas in the eastern part, the rise is around 3.5 4 C. In Punjab region, the maximum rise of temperature is about 4.5C. FVGCM-F2 (Fig 2I(c projects less warming compared to the ECHAMS-F2. FVGCM also predicts greater warming over Northern region of Pakistan like ECHAMS. A rise of about 4.5 - 6 C has been simulated by the model The rise of about 4 - 5 C has been observed for the F2 future.

Figure 21:

Seasonal Change in Temperature CC) for summer; (a) ECHAMS-F1, (b) ECHAMS-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3

26

19.

6.3.2 Winter (DJFM) for FI winter - 2.55 Sindh,

Fig. 22 shows the temperature change for the winter (DJFM) season over Pakistan and F2 scenarios. ECHAM5-Fl (Fig. 22(a projects a rise of about 2 ~ 2.55C for (DJFM) season all over Pakistan. The maximum rise in temperature of about 2.25 C has been observed over Northern region, over deserts, over southern Punjab, and Northern region of Balochistan

In case of ECHAM5-F2 (Fig 22(b)), a rise of about 4- 5.5C has been simulated by the model. The maximum rise has been observed over Northern, part of central Punjab, and in south eastern part of sindh province, where the rise in temperature is above 5 C. This predicted temperature is on higher side as compared to the IPCC prediction for the region. The rise over Northern region is over predicted. This may be due to the complex topography of the region, which is difficult to be simulated accurately by the model. FVGCM-F2 (Fig 22(c)) projects less warming compared to ECHAM5-F2 for the whole Pakistan. The rise of3.4 - 4.8 C has been simulated by the model all over Pakistan. The maximum rise has been observed over northern region, the central-southern Punjab region, desert areas, and part of sindh province. This rise in temperature is similar spatially but underestimated as compared to the ECHAM5 prediction.

Figure 22:

Seasonal Change in Temperature (C) for winter; (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3

27

20. 6.4 Seasonal Changes in Precipitation

6.4.1 Summer (JJAS)

Fig. 23 shows the changes in precipitation for Fl and F2 futures for summer (HAS) over Pakistan. ECHAM5-Fl (Fig 23(a)) shows a decrease of about 5 - 20 % in precipitation over southern region and parts of northern region of Pakistan in summer season, whereas an increase of about 5 - 50 % in precipitation in parts of NWFP region, parts of Balochistan, and in the Monsoon belt over Pakistan has been observed. In other regions, no significant change has been observed over Pakistan. In case of ECHAM5-F2 (Fig 23(b)), the model illustrates a decrease of about 60 % in precipitation in desert areas of Sindh region, and south western parts of Balochistan. The decrease of about 20 % in precipitation has been simulated by the model over extreme north region of Pakistan. In the monsoon belt of Pakistan, an increase of about 10 - 30 % has been observed. The decrease of about 10 - 30 % has been observed in central Punjab region of Pakistan. FVGCM-F2 (Fig 23(c)), overall predicts a decrease in summer precipitation over Pakistan. The decrease is more over desert areas of Pakistan, which is around 30 %.

Figure 23:

Seasonal % Change in Precipitation for summer; (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3.

28

21. 22.

6.4.2 Winter (DJFM)

Fig. 24 shows the future projections of precipitation for the winter (DJFM) season. ECHAM- Fl, except for the northern region, simulates a decrease of about 5 - 35 %. Over the northern region of Pakistan and over some parts of southern Pakistan, the change in precipitation is within 5 - 35 %. ECHAM5-F2 (Fig 24(b)) predicts a decrease of 5 - 35 % in the winter precipitation over Pakistan except for the extreme north region of Pakistan. In case of FVGCM-F2 (Fig 24(c)), the precipitation change pattern is different from the ECHAM-F2 predictions. FVCOM-F2 predicts a decrease of precipitation in the Balochistan province, whereas for most of the other regions in Pakistan, the model predicts an increase in precipitation. The maximum increase in precipitation is in central Punjab, where it is more than 35 %. Over the northern region, the increase in precipitation is within l0 - 25 %.

Figure 24:

Seasonal % Change in Precipitation for winter; (a) ECHAM5-Fl, (b) ECHAM5-F2, (c) FVGCM-F2 over Pakistan simulated by RegCM3

29

6.5 Annual Cycles over Pakistan

23.

Fig. 25 represents the annual cycles of temperature for the ECHAM5 (FI and F2) and FVGCM-F2 downscaled with RegCM3. In Fig. 25 (a), a rise of about 2 - 3 C for the ECHAM-FI dataset as compared to ECHAM-RF (where RF means base period, 196190), whereas for ECHAM-F2, a rise of about 5 C has been predicted. FVGCM-F2 downscaled with RegCM3 shows a rise of about 5 C with respect to FVGCM-RF over Pakistan as shown in Fig. 25 (b) Fig. 26 represents the annual cycles of precipitation for ECHAM5 (FI and F2) and FVGCM-F2 downscaled with RegCM3. There is no significant change in precipitation has been observed in Fig. 26 (a) for ECHAM5 (FI (2050s) and F2 (2080s)) as compared to the base period. For FVGCM (Fig. 26 (b)), also no significant change is observed, except for June, July & August, there is slight decrease in precipitation for the F2 period .

I
Figure 25: Annual cycles of temperature CC) over Pakistan; (a) ECHAM5, (b) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3

Figure 26:

Annual cycles of precipitation (mrn/d) over Pakistan; (a) ECHAM5, (b) FVGCM simulated by RegCM3

30

6.6 Summary of Changes over Pakistan

Tables 3 & 4 represent the summary of climate changes over Pakistan on annual and seasonal basis for ECHAM5 and FVGCM dataset downscaled with RegCM3. Table 3 shows the future changes in temperature over Pakistan for ECHAM5 (FI & F2) and FVGCM-F2 on annual and seasonal basis. It has been observed that there is more rise in temperature in summer than in winter. The comparison of ECHAM5-F2 and FVGCMF2 shows that ECHAM5 projects more warming than FVGCM. Table 4 shows the future percentage changes in precipitation over Pakistan for ECHAM5 (FI & F2) and FVGCM-F2. In summer, F2 projections give a decrease in precipitation of about 13 % over Pakistan. In winter season, FVGCM-F2 predicts an increase whereas ECHAM-F2 predicts a decrease in precipitation. On annual basis, an increase in precipitation is predicted. The increase is higher in ECHAM5, which is about 45 %, as compared to FVGCM.

Table 3:

Projected changes of temperature CC) over Pakistan on seasonal and annual basis

Temperature change (C) over Pakistan RegCM3-ECHAM5-Fl Annual Summer Winter

2.00 2.25 1.92

RegCM3-ECHAM5-F2
4.83 5.01 4.78

RegCM3-FVGCM-F2
4.08 4.39 3.98

Table 4:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) over Pakistan on seasonal and annual basis

Precipitation %age change over Pakistan RegCM3-ECHAM5-Fl Annual Summer Winter

39.56 10.51 13.09

RegCM3-ECHAM5-F2
44.98 -11.94 -6.25

RegCM3-FVGCM-F2
30.81 -13.66 13.63

7. Future Projections for Climatic Zones of Pakistan

Future projections of temperature and precipitation are also worked out on annual and seasonal basis for different climatic zones identified over Pakistan. The projected values are tabulated in Tables 5 and 6 for temperature and precipitation respectively. The uncertainties associated with these projected values are also given with the mean values.

31

A map showing different climate zones of Pakistan is shown in Fig. 27. Details related to these different climatic zones are available in the research report, GCISC RR 1: Climate Profile and Past Climate Changes in Pakistan.

Figure 27:

Climatic zones of Pakistan

Table 5 shows that, in case of ECHAMS-Fl, a slightly higher rise in temperature is observed in Greater Himalayas as compared to other regions. For F2 future projections of ECHAM5 and FVGCM, slightly higher temperature is observed over Greater Himalayas and lower Indus Plains as compared to other regions. Moreover, ECHAMS-F2 shows more warming as compared to FVGCM F2 projections. Table 6 shows a significant increase in precipitation over Greater Himalayas for ECHAMS (FI & F2) and FVGCM-F2. For F2 projections, increase in precipitation over central and southern Punjab has been observed. A decrease in precipitation has been observed over lower Indus Plains, Balochistan Plateau (west) and in coastal areas.

32

Table 5: 24.

Projected changes of temperature (0C) on armual basis over different climatic zones of Pakistan

Table 6:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) on annual basis over different climatic zones of Pakistan

The projected values of temperature and precipitation for summer (JJAS) are tabulated in Tables 7 and 8. ECHAM5-Fl projects more warming in Balochistan Plateau (West) whereas ECHAM5F2 gives greater rise in temperature in lower Indus Plains. FVGCM-F2 shows highest temperature rise in Balochistan Plateau (East). The analysis of the station data of last 50 years also gives increasing trend in Balochistan Plateau as shown in the research report RR-01 by Climate Section of GCISC. In case of precipitation, ECHAMS-F2 and FVGCM-F2 show a significant decrease in precipitation over lower Indus Plains and central & southern Punjab.

33

26. 25. Table 7:

Projected changes of temperature(C) for summer (JJAS) over different climatic zones of Pakistan

I (a): Greater Himalayas I (b): Sub-montane II: Western Highlands III: Central & Southern Punjab IV: Lower Indus Plains V (a) : Balochistan Plateau (East) V (b): Balochistan Plateau (West) VI: Coastal Areas

2.60 2.34 2.47 2.34 2.52 2.56 2.85 2.06

5.50 4.51 4.85 4.85 5.59 5.19 5.14 4.42

4.46 4.06 4.29 4.79 4.69 4.86 4.53 3.25

Table 8:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) for summer (JJAS) over different climatic zones of Pakistan

I (a): Greater Himalayas I (b): Sub-montane II: Western Highlands III: Central & Southern Punjab IV: Lower Indus Plains V (a) : Balochistan Plateau (East) V (b): Balochistan Plateau (West) VI: Coastal Areas

-0.98 9.29 5.98 1.99 -11.42 5.20 -6.69 -9.35

0.79 13.68 -1.23 -18.07 -50.22 -10.53 -41.53 -42.43

-7.26 -4.69 -5.70 -19.29 -26.81 -22.23 -19.47 -7.44

Tables 9 & 10 give results of temperature and precipitation changes for winter. The highest increase is observed over Greater Himalayan region and lower Indus Plains for both ECHAMS (Fl & F2) and FVGCM-F2 whereas past data analysis shows an increasing trend in winter temperatures over Greater Himalayan region (Research Report GCISC RR-0l). Moreover, ECHAMS-F2 shows more warming as compared to FVGCMF2 for all the climatic zones. In case of precipitation, ECHAMS (Fl &F2) gives no significant change over all the climatic zones except over Greater Himalayas where increase in precipitation is observed. FVGCM-F2 shows significant increase over Greater Himalayas, sub-montane, western Highlands and central & southern Punjab whereas there

34

is no significant change in other zones. However, FVGCM-F2 is wetter than ECHAM5F2.

Table 9:

Projected changes of temperature (C) for winter (DJFM) over different climatic zones of Pakistan

I (a): Greater Himalayas I (b): Sub-montane II: Western Highlands III: Central & Southern Punjab IV: Lower Indus Plains V (a) : Balochistan Plateau (East) V (b): Balochistan Plateau (West) VI: Coastal Areas

2.27 2.10 2.06 2.12 2.26 2.20 2.00 2.07

5.07 4.77 4.74 4.85 4.90 4.76 4.30 4.57

4.35 3.89 3.85 4.05 4.27 3.99 3.72 3.75

Table 10:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) for winter (DJFM) over different climatic zones of Pakistan

I (a): Greater Himalayas I (b): Sub-montane II: Western Highlands III: Central & Southern Punjab IV: Lower Indus Plains V (a) : Balochistan Plateau (East) V (b): Balochistan Plateau (West) Vi: Coastal Areas

14.44 0.74 0.05 -16.89 -17.83 -18.99 -11.65 -25.92

9.22 -7.29 -11.58 -11.48 -22.30 -25.52 -28.76 -23.94

15.02 14.44 17.33 30.38 3.23 -1.03 -10.17 -1.03

8. Future Projections for Agro Climatic Zones of Pakistan

Pakistan is basically an agricultural country and its economy is mainly agrarian based. To see a projected future for agriculture, analysis is carried out for different agro climatic zones as given by the Agriculture Section of GCISC. Four agro climatic zones of Pakistan namely: Humid, Sub Humid, Semi-arid and Arid are shown in Fig. 28.

35

Figure 28:

Agro climatic zones of Pakistan; (a) Humid, (b) Sub-humid, (c) Semi-arid and (d) Arid

Tables 11 to 13, represent the projected temperature changes over different agro climatic zones of Pakistan. In case of ECHAM5-Fl, a rise in the range of 2 - 2.5 C has been projected in all the zones on annual as well as seasonal basis. In case of F2 projections of ECHAM5 and FVGCM, a rise in the range of 4 - 5 C has been projected by the model. ECHAM5 seems to be warmer as compared to FVGCM in all the agro climatic zones of Pakistan. Arid and semi-arid areas seem to be warmer as compared to humid and subhumid regions in summer, while humid and sub-humid is showing more warming in winter as compared to the other zones.

36

Table 11:

Projected changes of temperature (C) on annual basis over different agroclimatic zones of Pakistan

Arid Semi-Arid Humid Sub-Humid

2.35 2.37 2.44 2.41

4.92 4.82 4.95 5.02

4.12 3.96 4.20 4.11

Table 12:

Projected changes of temperature (C) for summer (JJAS) over different agro -climatic zones of Pakistan

Arid Semi-Arid Humid Sub-Humid

2.44 2.51 2.41 2.36

5.08 4.87 4.71 4.83

4.44 4.25 4.24 4.00

Table 13:

Projected changes of temperature COC) for winter (DJPM) over different agro-climatic of Pakistan

Arid Semi-Arid Humid Sub-Humid

2.28 2.14 2.31 2.29

4.87 4.74 4.99 5.00

4.07 3.87 4.22 4.20

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Tables 14 to 16, represent the projected precipitation over different agricultural zones of Pakistan. ECHAM-FI shows an increase in precipitation on annual basis in humid and sub-humid region while a higher increase of about 85 %is observed in winter in arid region as compared to other zones. For F2 projections of ECHAM5 and FVGCM, a decrease of about 10-16% is observed in arid zones on annual basis and in summer season, whereas an increase of about 57% has been projected for winter season.

Table 14:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) on annual basis over different agroclimatic zones of Pakistan

Arid Semi-Arid Humid Sub-Humid

6.13 4.90 9.12 6.91

-13.74 6.24 13.50 10.29

-10.3 9 6.34 7.32 9.00

Table 15:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) for summer (JJAS) over different a agro-climatic zones of Pakistan

Arid Semi-Arid Humid Sub-Humid

27.48 11.04 21.64 12.81

-12.64 5.72 27.58 14.02

-16.0 4 -0.78 9.24 9.52

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Table 16:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) for winter (DJFM) over different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan

Winter (DJFM) Regions

,

RegCM3 - ECHAM5

RegCM3FVGCM

F=1 P(%)
Arid Semi-Arid Humid Sub-Humid
85.50 13.99 10.84 11.10

F2 P(%)
56.84 9.68 4.93 5.98

F2 P(%)
56.89 21.34 13.73 19.11

"'

9. Future Projections for Watershed Zones of Pakistan

The analysis is also extended to three watershed zones on Indus River System given by the Water Section of GCISC as shown in Fig. 29. These are: Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Kabul and Jhelum river catchments.

Figure 29: Watershed zones; (a) Upper Indus Basin (UIB), (b) Jhelum river catchment and ( c) Kabul river catchment

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Tables 17 to 19, represent the projected temperature on annual as well as seasonal basis over three watersheds as mentioned above. The results of temperature show that ECHAMS-Fl projects a rise in the range of 2 .2- 2.8 DC on annual as well as seasonal basis. For ECHAMS F2, a rise of about 4 - S DC has been predicted. However, FVGCMF2 projects less warming as compared to ECHAM - F2 on annual as well as seasonal basis with values in the range of 3 - 4 C. 27. 28. Further comparison shows that on seasonal basis more warming is predicted in Kabul than Jhelum and VIB.

Table 17:

Projected changes of temperature (C) on annual basis over different water shed zones of Pakistan

Jhelum River Catchment Kabul River Catchment Upper Indus Basin

Table 18:

,tiii ~v

Jhelum River Catchment Kabul River Catchment Upper Indus Basin

40

Table 19:

Projected changes of temperature (0C) for winter (DJFM) over different water shed zones of Pakistan

Jhelum River Catchment Kabul River Catchment

29.

2.19 2.30 2.38

4.81

3.91

Upper Indus Basin

4.96 5.18

4.26 4.41

Tables 20 to 22, represent the projected precipitation over the different watershed zones of Pakistan on annual and seasonal basis. More precipitation is predicted over VIE as compared to the other watershed zones on annual basis. In summer, more rainfall is predicted over UlB region as compared to the other regions. In winter, more rainfall is predicted by the ECHAM5 (Fl and F2) in Kabul catchment, whereas, FVGCM-F2 shows more precipitation in Jhelum as compared to other regions.

Table 20:
..

Projected changes of precipitation (%) on annual basis over different water shed zones of Pakistan

Jhelum River Catchment Kabul River Catchment Upper Indus Basin

5.00 6.21

7.10

7.75 10.42 9.94

11.22

9.40 18.67

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Table 21:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) for summer (JJAS) over different water shed zones of Pakistan

30.

Jhelum River Catchment Kabul River Catchment Upper Indus Basin

13.99 31. 15.51 21.36

17.63 12.73 35.71

6.09 8.47 14.00

Table 22:

Projected changes of precipitation (%) for winter (DJFM) over different water shed zones of Pakistan

Jhelum River Catchment Kabul River Catchment Upper Indus Basin

9.63

0.06
7.45 5.96

16.00
10.47

17.66 14.36 7.14

10. Conclusions
Future projections have been developed under IPCC SRES-A2 scenarios for 2050s (FI) & 2080s (F2) by dynamically downscaling the data of two GCMs (ECHAM5 & FVGCM) using the regional climate mode RegCM3 for South Asia focusing the analysis over Pakistan. ECHAM5 dataset was available for both the futures (FI and F2) whereas FVGCM dataset was available only for F2. The datasets were validated before the construction of future scenarios. The validation results showed that the downscaled GCM datasets were able to capture the climatic features of the region fairly well. Both GCMs captured the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation reasonably well for summer (JJAS) as well as winter (DJFM) over the whole domain. The future projections for South Asia region with dynamically downscaled ECHAMS (FI & F2) and FVGCM- F2 showed warming over the whole region. More warming is observed over coastal areas of Pakistan, Afghanistan, over Himalayan region and central India. The comparison of ECHAMS-F2 with FVGCM-F2

42

showed that ECHAM5-F2 projected more warming over central India, northern and southern parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Over Pakistan, the spatial patterns of precipitation as well as temperature for winter (DJFM) and summer (JJAS) are reasonably good, but the model overestimated in case of precipitation and showed a cold bias of about 1.3 - 3.2 C in case of temperature. In summer and at annual basis, the precipitation biases are higher in FVGCM as compared to ECHAM5, whereas FVGCM winter precipitation biases are less than ECHAM5. However the biases in case of ECHAM5 precipitation are higher in summer as compared to FVGCM. The results of future projections over Pakistan showed that summer is becoming warmer as compared to winter in both futures (Fl and F2). There is more warming over Greater Himalayas, central and southern parts of Punjab and Lower Indus Plain as compared to other regions of Pakistan in summer as well as winter and for both ECHAM5 (Fl & F2) and FVGCM-F2.

In case of agro climatic zones, it has been observed that a significant increase in precipitation has been projected in humid and sub- humid region for summer and annual and in arid region for winter, which shows that it will have a prominent effect on the wheat crop of the region. In case of watershed zones, more warming is predicted by the model in Kabul basin on annual basis and in summer season whereas more warming has been predicted in DIB in winter season. In case of precipitation, UIB is receiving more rainfall in summer season and on annual basis as compared to other regions. Overall comparison showed that ECHAM5 is more wet and warmer as compared to FVGCM over Pakistan. ECHAM5 seems to be over predicting in case of temperature as compared to the IPCC predictions for the region, whereas FVGCM prediction seems to be in accordance with the findings of IPCC. Overall, both the models were able to capture the spatial patterns at the interannual and seasonal scale reasonably well for the region especially over Pakistan.

11. Acknowledgements
We are thankful to the Earth System Physics (ESP) group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste Italy for providing the GCMs data and technical support

43

References

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Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) Global change science is being aggressively pursued around the world. The Global Change Impact Studies Centre was created in May 2002 to initiate this multidisciplinary effort in Pakistan. The main objective of the Centre is to comprehend the phenomenon of global change, scientifically determine its likely impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Pakistan and develop strategies to counter the adverse effects, if any. Another function of the Centre is to establish itself as a national focal point for providing cohesion to global change related activities at the national level and for linking it with international global research. An important function of the Centre is to help develop manpower that is capable of studying and participating in the international effort to study the global change phenomenon. The Centre also works to increase the awareness of the public, the scientific community and the policy planners in the country to global change.

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad Pakistan Telephone: (+92-51) 9230226 - 8, 2077386 Fax: (+92-51) 2077385 E-mail: gcisc@comsats.net.pk Web: www.gcisc.org.pk