Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati

PLANNING MANUAL

Supporting Land Use Decision Making in the Republic of Kiribati

KAP II: Component 1.3.2

Adaptation Handbook: CHRDP in Kiribati

TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT THIS MANUAL............................................................................................2 DOCUMENT OUTLINE ............................................................................................................................ 2 SECTION 1: SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS ..................................................4 SECTION 2: HAZARD EXTENT MAPS .................................................................9 MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.2METRES ELEVATION ................................................. 10 MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.3 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 18 MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.4 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 26 MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.6 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 34 SECTION 3: HAZARD EXTENT VISUAL TOOLS ............................................42 CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................45

The Handbook was produced for KAP II by: Coastal Zone Management (Australia) Pty Ltd PO BOX 436, Claremont, Perth, Australia, 6010 ph +61 (0)8 9284 6470 fax +61 (0)8 9284 6490 info@coastalmanagement.com www.coastalmanagement.com Recommended Citation: Elrick, C., Kay, R. and Bond, T. (2009) Planning Manual: Supporting land use decision making in the Republic of Kiribati. Prepared for Kiribati Adaptation Project Phase II (KAP II), Government of Kiribati.

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About This Manual

ThisManualisdesignedtoprovideguidancetodecisionmakersbysummarisingthekeyoutcomes ofworkconductedundertwocomponentsoftheKiribatiAdaptationProgram(KAPII)(Component 1.3.2andComponent1.4.0).ConsultantsinvolvedineachofthesecomponentsoftheKAPIIworked inunisontodevelopinformationonprojectedsealevelriseinKiribatiandthehazardextentrelative toeachprojectedsealevelrise,including,stormtidelevels. This information is valuable for decision makers across Government departments and should be readily accessible for inclusion in decisionmaking processes. Consequently, the objective of this Manual is to summarise the primary outcomes of the work conducted to establish projected sea levelriseinTarawaunderarangeoftimeframesandscenarios.Thisinformationshouldbeapplied tosupportdecisionsacrossthegovernmentofKiribati(GoK)thatinfluencetheuseanddevelopment of land and its resources. For example, the information may support decision making for urban developmentandthelocationanddesignofkeyinfrastructure. Anumberofotherreportsandtoolshavebeenproducedthroughthiswork.Theseinclude: Coastalcalculatorhandbook; Coastalcalculatortool; Riskassessmenthandbook;and Adaptationplanninghandbook.

TherelationshipbetweenthisPlanningManualandotherkeyreportsproducedthroughComponent 1.3.2and1.4.0areshowninFigure1.ThereportsarereferencedinthisManualandareavailablein fullfromtheKAPIIProjectManagementUnit.

Document Outline
Section1providesresultsformeanlevelsofthesea,stormtidelevels(extremesealevels)forthe Tarawalagoonshorelineandforstormtide+wavesetuplevelsfortheTarawaoceanshore,forthe threeselectedIKiribaticlimatechangescenariosandthreetimeframes.Thisinformationisderived from the coastal calculator (as presented in Chapter 3 of the Coastal Calculator Operational Handbook). Section2provideshazardextentmapsthatindicatethelevelofinundationduringmeanhighwater springs (MHWS) for the three selected IKiribati climate change scenarios and three timeframes, basedontheinformationpresentedinSection1. Section 3 is an accompanying data CD that contains Google earth files. The files can be opened in Google earth and indicate the projected extent of inundation during MHWS and storm events for the highest IKiribati climate change scenario (A1FI) and four timeframes (2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100). ThoseintheGovernmentofKiribati,andthosesupportingthegovernment,canusetheinformation presentedintheManual,toincorporatesealevelriseinundationriskintodecisionmaking.

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Figure1:Supportingdocuments

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Section 1: Sea level rise projections

Thischapterpresentstheprojectedchangeinmeanleveloftheseaandstormtidelevelsforthree different climate change scenarios and timeframes. The information presented in this chapter is drawnfromtheCoastalCalculatorOperationalHandbook. Thedatapresentedinthischaptermaybeappliedtoenhancethemainstreamingofclimatechange intolandanddevelopmentplanning,byenabling: Setting minimum ground levels or floor levels for the construction of new buildings (or rebuilding)bytheGovernment. Engagementwithcommunityregardingminimumgroundlevelsforbuilding(orrebuilding) ofcommunitybuildingsandinfrastructure.

The coastal calculator will need to be applied using appropriate parameters for the local reef and shoreline characteristics (see the Coastal Calculator Operational Handbook for further information forconsiderationof: Differenttimeframesorclimatechangescenarios;and Assessmentoflocalinundationpotentialimmediatelybehindtheshorelinewherewaverun upandovertoppingmaybeafactor,).
Timeframe Location in Figure

Location / water level information

Tidelevels(MLOS,MHWS,MHWPS) Lagoonshoreline 10%,2%&1%AEPstormtidelevels Tarawaoceanshore(south) 10%,2%&1%AEPwavesetuplevels Tarawaoceanshore(north(east)) 10%,2%&1%AEPwavesetuplevels

Tetibu(20122036) Tibutoru(20362060) Tibumwamwanu(20602074) Tetibu(20122036) Tibutoru(20362060) Tibumwamwanu(20602074) Tetibu(20122036) Tibutoru(20362060) Tibumwamwanu(20602074) Tetibu(20122036) Tibutoru(20362060) Tibumwamwanu(20602074)

Top Centre Bottom Top Centre Bottom Top Centre Bottom Top Centre Bottom

RefertotheCoastalCalculatorOperationalHandbook(Chapter3)fordetailsonthevariabilityofthe lagoonandoceanshorelines,andhowthisvariabilitymayinfluenceinundationlevels.

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Tidelevels

Mean level of the sea and high tide for the present day (19801999 average) and three IKiribati climatechangescenarios(B2green,A2orange,A1FIred)andtimeframes(Tetibutop,Tibu torumiddle,Tibumwamwanubottom).

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Tarawalagoonshoreline:Extremewaterlevels(stormside)

10%,2%and1%AEPstormtidelevelsforthepresentday(19801999average)andthreeIKiribati climatechangescenarios(B2green,A2orange,A1FIred)andtimeframes(Tetibutop,Tibu torumiddle,Tibumwamwanubottom).

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Tarawaoceanshore(south):Extremewaterlevels(stormtide+wavesetup)

Extreme sea levels (comprising tide, storm surge and wave setup) corresponding to the wave / waterlevelconditionswitha10%,2%and1%chanceofoccurringinanyoneyearforthepresent dayandthreeIKiribaticlimatechangescenariosandtimeframes.

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Tarawaoceanshore(north(east)):Extremewaterlevels(stormtide+wavesetup)

Extreme sea levels (comprising tide, storm surge and wave setup) corresponding to the wave / waterlevelconditionswitha10%,2%and1%chanceofoccurringinanyoneyearforthepresent dayandthreeIKiribaticlimatechangescenariosandtimeframes.

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Section 2: Hazard Extent Maps

The maps presented in this chapter present potential inundation extents during mean high water springs(MHWS)forthethreeselectedIKiribaticlimatechangescenariosandthreetimeframes. The information presented in this chapter may be applied to climate proof land and development planning,by: Establishingtheextentofexistingbuildinginundationriskandhowthismaychangeinthe future. Enabling the assessment of areas at potential risk from inundation (in terms of frequent events,e.g.hightides)andhowthesemaychange.

For further information on the process by which these outputs were developed: see the Risk AssessmentHandbookandtheAdaptationHandbook. To view the projected inundation extents during storm events, refer to the data CD available in Chapter3. Threescenariosforclimatechangehavebeenselectedforuseinreviewingpotentialclimatechange hazardsinKiribati.Theseare: IPCCB2lowclimatechangescenario IPCCA2mediumclimatechangescenario IPCCA1FIhighclimatechangescenario

The scenarios represent different projections for climate change. Importantly, no scenario by the IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)ismorelikelytooccurthananother.However,it isimportanttonotethattheglobalmeansealevelriseiscurrentlytracking(from19902005)in accordancewiththehighestIPCCclimatechangescenario,A1FI. Foreachmappresentedinthischapter,theheightoflandlikelytobeaffectedbyaclimatechange scenario is noted. The affected land is shaded in blue. In some maps, there is no blue shading, indicating that the area will not be affected under the selected climate change scenario. Areas shaded in blue indicate an area of lowlying land that may become permanently swampy as sea levels,andconsequentlythewatertable,rise.Infrastructureandservicessituatedintheseareaswill likely require increased maintenance, and certain areas of land may potentially become uninhabitable.Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposedtocontaminants,astheboundaries betweenthefreshwaterinterfaceandhumanactivitydecrease. ImportantNote: All maps contain data generated from the 1998 Tarawa Mapping Project. The mapping data was extractedfrom1:8,000photographytoproduce1metrecontoursaccurateto0.5mvertically.The contours used to create the maps presented in this chapter have been generated by the same company that completed the original mapping at an interval of 0.1m, which is significantly higher intervalthanwhatisrecommendedforthisscaleofphotography.Itisimportanttonotethatthese contourswillremainaccurateto0.5mvertical.

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Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.2metres Elevation

Mapsinthissectionindicatelandsituatedbelow2.2m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatumthe samedatumusedinthecontourmaps).Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.2misshadedinblue. Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaoflowlyinglandthatmaybecomepermanentlyswampyas sealevels,andconsequentlythewatertable,rise.Infrastructureandservicessituatedintheseareas will likely require increased maintenance and certain areas of land may potentially become uninhabitable.Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposedtocontaminantsastheboundaries between the freshwater interface and human activity decrease. In some maps, there is no blue shading,indicatingthattheareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario. Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.2metresinclude: Scenario2030B2impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2030(appliesthelowscenario) Scenario2050B2impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2050(appliesthelowscenario) Scenario 2030 A2 impact likely experienced by the year 2030 (applies the medium scenario)

ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.

Figure2:Maplegend GovernmentServiceOne:Health,education,policefacilities GovernmentServiceTwo:Water,sewerage,electricity,TSKLcable(allmappedasseparatelines) GovernmentServiceThree:MajorTransportairports,ports GovernmentServiceFour:Roads(mappedasseparateline) Government Service Five: Government Building, not housing for example agriculture office, diplomatic building,prison,desalinationplant.

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Figure3:Betio,2.2metres

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Figure4:BairikiandNanikaai,2.2m

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Figure5:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.2m

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Figure6:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.2m

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Figure7:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.2m

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Figure8:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.2m

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Figure9:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.2m

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Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.3 metres Elevation

Maps in this section indicate land situated below 2.3 m (based on University of Hawaii Datum). In themaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.3misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaof lowlying land that may become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently the water table, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increased maintenance and certain areas of land may potentially become uninhabitable. In addition, ground water may become exposed to contaminants as the boundaries between the freshwater interface andhumanactivitydecrease.Insomemaps,thereisnoblueshading,indicatingthattheareawill notbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario. Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.3metresinclude: Scenario 2070 B2 (low scenario) impact likely experienced by the year 2070 (applies the lowscenario) Scenario2050A2(mediumscenariowith0.1mscaledupicesheetdischarge)impactlikely experiencedbytheyear2050(appliesthemediumscenario) Scenario 2030 A1FI (high scenario with 0.2m scaled up ice sheet discharge) impact likely experiencedbytheyear2030(appliesthehighscenario)

ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.

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Figure10:Betio,2.3metres

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Figure11:BairikiandNanikaai,2.3m

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Figure12:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.3m

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Figure13:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.3m

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Figure14:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.3m

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Figure15:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.3m

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Figure16:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.3m

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Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.4 metres Elevation

Maps in this section indicate land situated below 2.4 m (based on University of Hawaii Datum). In themaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.4misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaof lowlying land that may become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently the water table, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increased maintenance and certain areas of land may potentially become uninhabitable. In addition, ground water may become exposed to contaminants as the boundaries between the freshwater interface andhumanactivitydecrease.Insomemaps,thereisnoblueshading,indicatingthattheareawill notbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario. Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.4metresinclude: Scenario 2050 A1FI impact likely experienced by the year 2050 (applies the high scenario with0.2mscaledupicesheetdischarge) Scenario2070A2impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2070(appliesthemediumscenario with0.1mscaledupicesheetdischarge)

ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.

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Figure17:Betio,2.4metres

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Figure18:BairikiandNanikaai,2.4m

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Figure19:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.4m

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Figure20:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.4m

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Figure21:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.4m

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Figure22:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.4m

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Figure23:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.4m

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Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.6 metres Elevation

Maps in this section indicate land situated below 2.6 m (based on University of Hawaii Datum). In themaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.6misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaof lowlying land that may become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently the water table, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increased maintenance and certain areas of land may potentially become uninhabitable. In addition, ground water may become exposed to contaminants as the boundaries between the freshwater interface andhumanactivitydecrease.Insomemaps,thereisnoblueshading,indicatingthattheareawill notbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario. Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.6metresinclude: Scenario2070A1FIimpactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2070(appliesthehighscenario with0.2mscaledupicesheetdischarge)

ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.

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Figure24:Betio,2.6metres

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Figure25:BairikiandNanikaai,2.6m

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Figure26:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.6m

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Figure27:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.3m

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Figure28:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.6m

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Figure29:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.6m

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Figure30:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.6m

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Section 3: Hazard Extent Visual Tools

The accompanying CD contains Google Earth files that demonstrate potential hazard extents of inundationduetosealevelriseduring: Meanhighwatersprings(MHWS):2030,2050,2070and2100(A1FIscenario);and 1in10yearstormevent:2030,2050,2070and2100(A1FIscenario).

ThefilesindicatetheriseinmeansealevelthatisprojectedforMHWSandstormevents.However, the projections of sea level rise do not include wave set up. They only indicate static water levels during MHWS and storm events. Consequently, the extent of inundation may be higher than presentedinthemappingfiles. ThelevelsofinundationassociatedwitheachofthehazardextentsintheattachedCDareshownin Table1,andwereobtainedfromtheCoastalCalculator.
Table1:WaterlevelsassociatedwithriseinmeansealevelfordifferenttimeframesundertheA1FIscenario

Year 2030 2050 2070 2100

Event MHWS Storm MHWS Storm MHWS Storm MHWS Storm

WaterLevel(UoHdatum) 2.3m 2.8m 2.5m 2.9m 2.6m 3.1m 2.9m 3.4m

TheprojectionsarebasedontheA1FIclimatechangescenario.Thisisthemostpessimisticclimate changescenariopresentedintheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport.However,itisimportanttonote thattheglobalmeansealevelriseiscurrentlytracking(from19902005)inaccordancewiththe highestIPCCclimatechangescenario,A1FI. The information presented in this chapter may be applied to climate proof land and development planning,by: Enablingtheassessmentareasatpotentialriskfrominundation(bothintermsoffrequent events,e.g.hightides,tolessfrequentstormrelatedevents)andhowthesemaychange. Establishingtheextentofexistingbuildinginundationriskandhowthismaychangeinthe future.

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ToviewthefilesintheattachedCD,followthesesteps: 1. SavethecontentoftheCDontoyourcomputer. 2. OpenGoogleEarth(ifyoudonothaveGoogleEarthonyourcomputer,youcandownloadit forfreefrom:http://earth.google.com/) 3. InGoogleEarth,clickonFileandthenselectOpen. 4. NavigatethetolocationwhereyousavedthecontentsoftheCDandselectthefilecalled, KiribatiClimateChangeInundation.kmz1 Thisfilecontainsimagerythatindicatesthehazardextentforfourtimeframes,2030,2050,2070and 2100.Toviewthehazardextent,clickinthesquareboxnexttoeachyear.Youcanviewtheextent ofhazardthatisprojectedduringstormeventsandduringMeanHighWaterSprings.Anexampleof theGoogleEarthimagerywiththehazardextentat2010(stormevents)ispresentedinFigure31.

This is a large file and it may take a while to load into your Google Earth program.

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Figure31:Googleearth

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Conclusion
TheinformationpresentedinthisManualisasummaryofthekeyoutcomesofworkconductedin two components of the KAP II program (Component 1.3.2 and Component 1.4.0). It provides guidanceontheprojectedimpactofsealevelriseonSouthTarawa.Theprojectionsarepresented aslevelsofsealevelrise(relativetotheUniversityofHawaiidatum)(Section1)andashazardextent maps (Section 2). The hazard extent maps project rise in mean sea level and the extent of permanent inundation. The impacts of storms are not presented in these maps. Consequently, Googleearthvisualisationtoolsarealsoprovided(Section3),whichprovidefurtherinformationon the projected impact of rise in mean sea level for both permanent inundation (Mean High Water Springs)andinundationthatwilloccurduringstormevents. This information should be applied to support decision making across the government of Kiribati (GoK)thatinfluencetheuseanddevelopmentoflandanditsresources.

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