Journal of Geodynamics 29 (2000) 387392

Active, capable, and potentially active faults a paleoseismic perspective p

Michael N. Machette
U.S. Geological Survey, Central Region, Geologic Hazards Team, Denver, CO 80225, USA

Abstract Maps of faults (geologically dened source zones) may portray seismic hazards in a wide range of completeness depending on which types of faults are shown. Three fault terms active, capable, and potential are used in a variety of ways for dierent reasons or applications. Nevertheless, to be useful for seismic-hazards analysis, fault maps should encompass a time interval that includes several earthquake cycles. For example, if the common recurrence in an area is 20,00050,000 years, then maps should include faults that are 50,000100,000 years old (two to ve typical earthquake cycles), thus allowing for temporal variability in slip rate and recurrence intervals. Conversely, in more active areas such as plate boundaries, maps showing faults that are <10,000 years old should include those with at least 2 to as many as 20 paleoearthquakes. For the International Lithosphere Programs' Task Group II2 Project on Major Active Faults of the World our maps and database will show ve age categories and four slip rate categories that allow one to select diering time spans and activity rates for seismic-hazard analysis depending on tectonic regime. The maps are accompanied by a database that describes evidence for Quaternary faulting, geomorphic expression, and paleoseismic parameters (slip rate, recurrence interval and time of most recent surface faulting). These maps and databases provide an inventory of faults that would be dened as active, capable, and potentially active for seismic-hazard assessments. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

1. Introduction Throughout the world, scientic and engineering studies are conducted on a daily basis to locate, study, and characterize surface-rupturing faults (and folds) that are associated with
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A product of International Lithosphere Program Task Group II-2. E-mail address: machette@usgs.gov (M.N. Machette).

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large earthquakes M b 6). These studies range from regional in extent (e.g., for seismichazards assessments) to local in extent (e.g., for design parameters on engineering projects). In both end-member cases, the actual paleoseismic data come from detailed site-specic studies (i.e., trenching, detailed mapping, etc.). Often the studies are conducted to satisfy regulatory statutes, especially in more-populated areas with high rates of seismic activity (Lettis and Kelson, 1996). For example, in California, the 1972 Alquist-Priolo Special Studies Zones Act (and later revisions) places limits on the proximity of engineered structures to all potentially and recently active faults, and requires mandatory set-backs when such faults are known or found by special (geologic and paleoseismic) studies (see Hart, 1990).

2. Terminology These types of regulatory statutes commonly include specic language that denes "active faults." However, each state may legislate dierently, and dierent regulatory bodies within the Federal government commonly use diering criteria often dependent upon their specic goals or objectives. As a result, the various denitions of fault-activity terms are the source of some confusion and discussion both in the literature and in practice. The following terms (as adapted from common English-language dictionaries) are most commonly associated with seismogenic structures (i.e., faults, blind thrusts, and fault-related folds) in the United States. 1. "Active characterized by current activity F F F " An active fault; i.e., one demonstrating current movement or action. (What is current: contemporary, historic, Holocene or Quaternary?). 2. "Capable having the abilityF F F " A capable fault; i.e., one having the ability for movement. (Can't most properly oriented faults be capable under certain stress regimes?). 3. "Potential capable of being or becomingF F F " A potentially active fault; i.e., one capable of being or becoming active. (This denition is very similar to a capable fault.) It seems that the big dierence between a capable fault and a potentially capable (or potentially active) fault is that one may or may not have the data available to assess whether a fault is active or not. For example, a fault may not be capable, but we cannot prove this because the strata overlying the fault are not there, even though the orientation in the present tectonic regime may be favorable for it being capable. Thus, classication is strongly inuenced by the amount and type of data that are available.

3. Discussion These three terms active, capable, and potential are used in a variety of ways for dierent reasons or applications. For example, in California the term active fault is dened as one associated with surface-rupturing earthquakes (EQs) in the past 11,000 years. This time limit is somewhat awkward, having been established when the Holocene was considered

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to have begun 11,000 years ago, whereas 10,000 years is now the commonly accepted beginning of the Holocene. The State of California denes a potentially active fault as one associated with surface-rupturing EQs in the Quaternary (since 1.6 million years ago). The California regulations are used to zone all types of construction, but come into play most commonly with new construction on commercial developments or large residential developments. Alquist-Priolo Special Studies are not required for residential construction if the development is for less than four single-family homes. Although unstated, geologic evidence for paleoseismic activity is usually the result of M b 6 EQs for surface ruptures and M b 5 EQs for liquefaction features. The Basin and Range province is characterized by a tectonic regime dominated by faults having relatively slower slip rates and longer recurrence intervals (Machette, 1998), and thus requires a dierent denition of active fault to be relevant to seismic hazard assessments. Recently, the Western States Seismic Policy Council (WSSPC is a consortium of state and private scientists in the western US) recommended dening active faults in the Basin and Range province (WSSPC, 1997). To quote, "Active faults can be categorized as follows, recognizing that all degrees of fault activity exist and it is the prerogative of the user to decide the degree of anticipated risk and what degree of fault activity is considered dangerous": 1. Holocene active fault: a fault that has moved in the last 10,000 years. 2. Late Quaternary active fault: a fault that has moved in the last 130,000 years. 3. Quaternary active fault: a fault that has moved in the last 1,600,000 years. WSSPC justies these time-based denitions largely on the basis of their association with signicant climatic events that are commonly recognizable in the geologic record (i.e., the Holocene boundary, the marine isotope stage V/VI boundary, and the start of the Quaternary). They also argue that a late Quaternary criterion (130,000 years) encompasses many (probably most) of the average recurrence intervals in the province. Conversely, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), which regulates the licensing and construction of nuclear-material facilities (e.g., reactors, waste-storage facilities), denes a capable fault strictly on a calendar basis. Their capable fault has one demonstrable movement (oset) in the past 50,000 years or multiple movements in the past 500,000 years (NRC, 1994, 1996). The 50,000-year target is beyond the practical limit of radiocarbon dating (the most commonly used dating method), whereas TL (thermoluminescence) dating is generally limited to about 100,000 years. Thus, the NRC has chosen time ranges for faulting events that are exceedingly dicult to date, except in certain special circumstances (e.g., Ar40/Ar39 dating and tephrochronologic methods for Late Quaternary volcanic deposits). Other groups concerned with short-term hazards consider a fault as "active" if it has historic seismicity, which may mean intervals as short as 150 years (typical of the western USA) to as long as 2000 years (possible in parts of Europe, Eurasia, China, Japan). This perspective is common in regions where seismicity is associated with major plate-boundary faults, such as around the Pacic Rim. However, in most intraplate

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regions of the world, historic seismicity does not have a clear relation to Quaternary faults, owing to relatively long (>10,000 years) recurrence intervals and short (<10 years) aftershock sequences. Thus, a region's tectonic setting often has a strong inuence on the perception of the citizens and governments concerning active faulting and potential seismic hazards. The terminology used by these regulatory and advisory agencies may be problematic because they may be used in a variety of tectonic regimes, such as active plate boundaries and passive intraplate regions. For example, a map of Holocene faults along the West Coast of the USA will include most faults that are "active" and can cause surface deformation. This fairly accurate depiction of paleoearthquake activity is a result of high rates of surface faulting (recurrence intervals of 2505000 years and slip rates >0.2 to >10 mm/year). In the nearby Basin and Range province, de Polo and Slemmons (1997) showed that only 6 of the 17 faults that have ruptured in historic time (post-1860 A.D.) have evidence of Holocene activity. Thus, a map of Holocene faults would not predict almost two-thirds of the historic faults in the Basin and Range province. The region's 140-year observation window (1860 to present) is clearly inadequate to sample the past 10,000 years of fault activity. Conversely, all but one (16 of 17) of the historic faults in the province have had prior movement in the past 130,000 years (the late Pleistocene and Holocene). Similarly, a map of Holocene faults in intraplate North America would only show a fraction of those faults that have been active during the Quaternary. This later point was well illustrated by the 1989 Ungava, Canada EQ (Ms 6.3), which formed a 10-km-long surface rupture by reactivating an Archean fault (Adams et al., 1992). Paleoseismic studies of intraplate faulting (Crone et al., 1997) has shown that long recurrence (>100,000 years), low slip rates (<0.01 mm/year), and compressional styles of deformation are typical of most stable continental interior regions, such of Australia and the central and eastern portion of North America. The term neotectonic captures a concept well suited to EQ hazards in diering seismic regimes. Neotectonic faults are thought of herein as those formed during the current stress regime; that is, the one presently causing EQs and surface deformation in an area. In the Apennines of central Italy, the current stress regime may have started in the Middle Quaternary (ca. 700,000 years ago; Tondi, 1998) owing to changes in plate dynamics. Thus, Tondi (1998) considers faults having movement within the past 700,000 years to be active. Similarly, in the USA, neotectonic might be dened as <500,000 years in California, 2,000,000 years in the Basin and Range province and perhaps <15,000,000 years for intraplate North America. This type of sliding variable scale suits a continental region that is aected by plate interaction of the West Coast, pervasive extensional tectonics in the Intermountain West, and comparatively less vigorous compressional tectonics east of the Rocky mountains. Thus, to return to the denitions presented above, neotectonic faults are both capable and potential, but only a fraction are active by most denitions. In addition to these semantic issues, seismic-hazard assessments must grapple with newly recognized fault characteristics, such as episodes of clustered activity on long-recurrence faults, contagion behavior (temporal patterns), spatial migration of faulting, and stress transfers leading to changes in "time to failure" on a fault.

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4. Conclusions Depending on a region's tectonic setting and the time window used, fault maps (geologically dened source zones) may reect seismic hazards in a wide range of completeness. To be useful for seismic-hazards analysis, fault maps should encompass a time interval that includes several earthquake cycles. For example, if the common recurrence interval in the Basin and Range is 20,00050,000 years, then maps should include faults that are 50,000100,000 years old (two to ve typical earthquake cycles), thus allowing for temporal variability in slip rate and recurrence intervals. Conversely, in plate-boundary regions of the West Coast, maps showing faults that are <10,000 years old should include those with at least 2 to as many as 20 paleoearthquakes. For the International Lithosphere Programs' Task Group II-2 Project on Major Active Faults of the World (Trifonov and Machette, 1993; Haller et al., 1993), our planned maps and database will show ve age categories (historic to <1.6 Ma). This subdivision allows one to select diering time spans for seismic-hazard analysis depending on tectonic regime. Slip rate, which we use as a proxy for fault activity, is classied in four categories ranging from <0.2 mm/year (most intraplate faults) to >5 mm/year (most plate boundary faults). The maps are accompanied by a database that describes evidence for Quaternary faulting, geomorphic expression, and paleoseismic parameters (slip rate, recurrence interval and time of most recent surface faulting). These maps and databases provide an inventory of faults that would be dened as active, capable, and potentially active for seismic-hazard assessments. References
Adams, J., Percival, J.A., Wetmiller, R.J., Drysdale, J.A., Robertson, P.B., 1992. Geologic controls on the 1989 Ungava surface rupture: a preliminary interpretation. Geological Survey of Canada Paper 92-C, 147155. Crone, A.J., Machette, M.N., Bowman, J.R., 1997. The episodic nature of earthquakes in the stable interior of continents as revealed by paleoseismicity studies of Australian and North American Quaternary faults. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 44 (1), 203214. de Polo, C.M., Slemmons, D.B., 1997. Age criteria for active faults in the Basin and Range Province. In: Lund, W.R. (Ed.), Western States Seismic Policy Council Proceeding Volume, Basin and Range Province SeismicHazards Summit, pp. 7483 (Utah Geological Survey Miscellaneous Publication 98-2). Haller, K.M., Machette, M.N., Dart, R.L., 1993. Maps of Major Active Faults, Western Hemisphere International Lithosphere Program (ILP) Project II-2: Guidelines for U.S. Database and Map. U.S. Geological Survey OpenFile Report 93338, 45 pp. Hart, E.W., 1990. Fault-rupture hazard zones in California Alquist-Priolo Special Studies Zones Act of 1972 with Index to Special Studies Zones Maps. [California] Division of Mines and Geology Special Publication 42 (Revised 1990), 25 pp. Lettis, W.R., Kelson, K.I., 1996. Active fault recognition and paleoseismic investigation techniques. In: Technical Seminar on Earthquake Engineering for Dams, Proceedings, 1996 Annual Meeting, Association of State Dam Safety Ocials, 25. Machette, M.N., 1998. Contrasts between short- and long-term records of seismicity in the Rio Grande rift: important implications for seismic-hazards analysis in areas of slow extension. In: W.R Lund (Ed.), Western States Seismic Policy Council Proceeding Volume, Basin and Range Province Seismic-Hazards Summit, pp. 8495 (Utah Geological Survey Miscellaneous Publication 98-2). Tondi, E., 1998. Active and capable fault segments in the central Apennines (Italy). In: Cello, G., Deiana, G., Invernizzi, C., Tondi, E. (Eds.), The Resolution of Geological Analysis and Models for Earthquake Faulting Studies. Proceedings Volume of International Workshop, Camerino, Italy, June 36, p. 91.

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Trifonov, V.G., Machette, M.N., 1993. The world map of major active faults. Annali di Geosica 36 (3-4), 225236. NRC (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), 1996. Regulatory Guide 1.165, Identication and Characterization of Seismic Sources and Determination of Safe Shutdown Earthquake Ground Motions. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Oce of Nuclear Regulatory Research (draft, January 1996). NRC (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), 1994. Draft 10 CFR Part 100, Section 100.23, Geologic and Seismic Siting Factors. Federal Register, October 17, 1994. WSSPC (Western States Seismic Policy Council), 1997. Active fault denition for the Basin and Range Province. WSSPC Policy Recommendation 97-1 White Paper, May 22, 1997, San Francisco, CA. p. 3.