Proposal towards the development of an overhead monorail system for the greater Dublin area

Neville Lawless
School of Mechanical and Manufacturing engineering DUBLIN CITY UNIVERSITY Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland

Contents
CONTENTS 1 2 3 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION NEEDS ASSESSMENT PROPOSAL 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5 6 7 8 Why select a monorail system? Identify route options Route selection Line and stop design II 1 2 3 5 5 6 6 8 10 11 12 12

COSTING ANALYSIS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT FINAL RECOMMENDATION REFERENCES

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Executive summary

The following proposal sets out the development of a two line orbital monorail system which serves to unite the greater Dublin area and commuter towns with an integrated, efficient, and environmentally friendly transportation system. Akin to the M50 motorway the rail system encircles Dublin city centre at a radius of approximately 11 km, it is served from CBD by two radial lines, one northbound extending through Dublin airport terminating in swords, and one western line terminating in Maynooth. Needs assessments have been carried out in this work and predictions made in previous research have shown there is a necessity for the construction of a railway system analogous to the one proposed therein. Having deemed this, a costs analysis based on a similar Monorail system used Kuala Lumpur was carried out. It has given 1.67 billion as an initial rough estimate for the scope of the project. Passenger usage estimations follow this; it is deemed that the annual revenue generated would be in the order of 40 million, A 50 year debt repayment timeline. Further tax revenues are proposed by means of a land tax on commercial sites which benefit. And also a city centre car tax is envisaged during peak hours

Figure 1: ref: http://oc.metblogs.com/2009/08/01/m-o-n-o-r-a-i-l/

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Introduction

The need for an efficient, world class, fully integrated, urban transport system for the greater Dublin environs has come to a head in times of late. The current economic climate has led to an increased pressure on the residents of Dublin city and county to incorporate cost saving measures into their financial planning, and so, the increased expenditure on personal vehicles has led to a higher dependence on the citys public transportation system. From an environmental point of view this is a positive, however, this has not reduced the chronic traffic congestion that is found throughout Dublins roads and motorways to any dramatic extent as with rising population will always come with increased vehicle numbers. This proposal document aims to deliver an alternative solution to those which has been published in the Dublin Transportation Offices report, A Platform for Change Outline of an integrated transportation strategy for the Greater Dublin Area - 2000 to 2016[1]. In it, the strategy has pointed out the development of a higher capacity, segregated, light rail network (Metro) as viable addition to the transport network. The Dublin swift is the name given to the light rail system being set out in this document. It is proposed that the monorail system will serve a number of County Dublins densely populated residential boroughs with zones of high employment, four Universities, retail outlets and hospitals. This would consist of one orbital, dual track line, beginning in Coolock in Dublins north east and running through major areas such as Santry, finglas, castleknock,

palmerstown, tallaght, templeouge, dundrum, UCD and ending just north of booterstown where it intersects the dart line. This line has a combined length of 37.69 km. In addition, 2 radial lines, one Northern and another Western, are proposed to act as interconnectors and serve as a means of easing traffic Neville Lawless Page 2

congestion on well-known college/school/city centre vehicular routes. The northern line extends north from Westmoreland Street/college green (Trinity College), through the north inner city, Drumcondra, DCU, Ballymun, Dublin airport and ending in Swords, having a total length 15.9 km. The western line shall serve Dame Street, Kilmainham, Ballyfermot, Leixlip and Maynooth with a length of 23.6 km. In total this accumulates to 77.2km of new rail lines.

Needs Assessment

The single person occupancy of vehicles on the daily trek to the workplace is the single biggest contributor to traffic congestion, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in Ireland. The financial boom experienced by the country in the times of The Celtic Tiger, sustained stable economic development and a high quality of life, leaving finances available to families and younger people, to purchase vehicles or multiple vehicles where once they would have not been in such a position. In recent years however, whilst the majority of

vehicles have remained on the countries roads, there has been seen a slight decrease in the percentage of private car usage out of the total transportation trips. This has led to a much increased demand on the public transportation system [2]. As this proposal is concerned with the needs of the greater Dublin area, transportation methods within a 5 to 6 km radius of Dublins city centre or CBD shall be left to further works. This is because the current operation of the inner city public bus system operates efficiently and meets demand at the current time.

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In a symposium report published in 2003 [3], data is presented showing morning peak hour trips in the greater Dublin area between 1991 and 2001. In the work, predictions are also offered by the Dublin transport office from various reports, of the breakdown of numbers and modes of transports up to the year 2016. It can be seen in table 1 that from 1991 to 1997 there is an increase of 78000 trips, leaving a 7% increase per year. This then jumps dramatically from 250,000 to 488,000 predicted trips for 2016. This yields an increase of 95%, which is an astonishing step and can only lead to increased trip times.
Table 1: Actual and Projected Morning Peak Hour Trips (000s) in Greater Dublin. [3]

The breakdown of modes of transport and their corresponding trip numbers is set out in table 2. The data holds assuming that the report A Platform for change [2] has correctly assessed the situation and that the methods set out in it are implemented. Nevertheless, the numbers in table 2 are representative of what is required by the greater Dublin area to thrive as a modern metropolis, regardless of what implementations are made.
Table 2: Breakdown of Morning Peak Hour Trips by Mode 1991 to 2016 [3]

From above, the need for an efficient rail system to connect the industrial centres, shopping complexes, universities and commuter towns cannot be questioned. This operating in hand with a reliable investment in bus feeder

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services which are already operable is envisaged and a method of achieving this is proposed in the following section.

Proposal

Previous research has led the author of this work to formulate the proposal of a modern elevated monorail as a means of meeting the transport requirements for the greater Dublin environs over the next 20 years.

4.1

Why select a monorail system?

Monorails have been shown to be the cheapest method of adding an efficient, large capacity transport system to a city.

Monorails are a safe means of transport as they are grade-separated and do not interfere with existing infrastructure.

They are inherently more environmentally friendly as they maintain good energy efficiency whilst requiring a lot less construction costs at all points during the construction project.

They can serve as short range operators akin to the luas system or can serve longer stop ranges with speeds in the range of 80km/h

The cost requirements are significantly less than those associated with underground subways or ground level trams. Underground

uncertainties give rise to a greater level of complexity for the planning and construction stages. Timelines for the development of monorail systems can be smaller than those for subway /metro systems.

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4.2

Identify route options

The selection of a route for this proposal came from a need for people of Dublin and surronding areas to have an alternative to driving, that will enable all the flexability associated with it, whilst providing a cost saving to the everyday commuter which is financially viable to the government. The success of the M50 motorway in linking the outskirts of the city centre has been identified as a platform from which a route could be planned. An orbital track, having two lines serving major areas in a region similar to the M50 is felt as the best option. This is to be interlinked by radial lines serving the north to swords and to the west to Maynooth.

4.3

Route selection

Below in red is the proposed monorail line. Figure 1 shows orbital route and the north and west lines. Figure 2 gives a wider view of the final proposed route.

Figure 2: Orbital line with north and west lines marked in red.

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Figure 3: Wider view of the proposed monorail with terminating stops swords and Maynooth

The proposed stops below only serve as an indication of the major destinations which will be served, further detailed needs analysis, outside the scope of this proposal, and is required to adequately determine the detailed Stop locations. Major stops on orbital line
1 Coolock 6 Tallaght 1 Westmoreland Street 2 Santry 7 Templeouge 2 North inner city 3 Finglas 8 Dundrum 3 Drumcondra 4 Castleknock 9 UCD 4 DCU 5 Palmerstown 10 Booterstown 7 Swords 6 Dublin airport 5 Ballymun

Major stops on Northern line:

Major stops on western line:

1 Dame street 4 Leixlip

2 Kilmainham

5 Maynooth

3 Ballyfermot

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4.4

Line and stop design

A numerical analysis has been carried out to make a predictive comparison of schedule speeds between the proposed Dublin swift and commuters on the m50 during peak times. Below is a formula taken from a report published by the Railway technical society of Australasia [4]. It serves as a tool for estimating schedule velocities for travel times between stops, with incorporated accelerations, deceleration and wait times. A comparisons was made between a section of the m50 (N7M1) and the orbital monorail line with stops at 2km intervals. [ ( ) ]

Where V = schedule speed along the route, d = distance between adjacent stops, ts = time a vehicle spends at a stop, v = running speed between stops, a = acceleration from zero to v, and b = deceleration from v to zero speed, Using real time travel information from NRA website, figure 4, schedule time for a car to travel the N7 to M1 was simply calculated as 18.5 m/s, this can fall to as low as 9m/s at peak times.

Figure 4: NRA website live times [5]

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Below is a table containing the schedule speeds obtained from the above equation for the monorail and also for the m50 which was simply calcuated above as an average of 18.5m/s.
factors d (m) Vmax Vop m/s t (sec) a (m/s^2) b (m/s^2) Vsched (m/s) Vsched (kph) Dublin Swift Circular line 2000 146 33.3 20 1 1.2 16.13 44.80 M50 road journey 18000 80 22.2 35 7 1.2 11.18 31.05 (0-80kph)

It is evident that at stop sizes of roughly 2km, the schedulde speeds obtained by the monorail sytem begin to increase greatly above that for a commuter car. This leads to a much reduced travel time for passengers and so it is felt that this proposal, if successful will enitice the predicted number of passengers to leave their vehicles and make use of the public rail system.

The proposed system is to use a two car monorail, based closely on the Kuala Lumpur MTrans which has been built at a cost of 24.43M per km. The successful system combines an effective approach to the monorail system with a slimmer size carriage suitable for areas already built up with infrastructure. Figure 5 below shows the layout of each 2 carriage train. Services are proposed to operate between 6.00am and 1.00am on weekdays with late night services operating on Fridays and Saturdays. Service hours would be shorter on Sundays and bank holidays. At peak times the headway for each train is 3 minutes and at off peak times is increased to 15mins. There is no need for a detailed timetable as the trains leave at the quarter hour precisely.

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Figure 5: Kuala Lumpur MTrans schematic

Costing Analysis

The total cost of construction, deemed to be a rough estimate and based loosely on the Kuala Lumpur system is set out in table 3 below.

Table 3: Estimated costs

M Orbital line North line Western line 25.43 25.43 25.43

km 26.43 15.9 23.6

M 672.1149 404.337 600.148 1676.5999 1.676 Billion

Table 4: Passenger trip estimations

Max Capacity: off peak capacity:

420 250

passengers passengers

7am-9am peak: every 3min 2 car trains at 3 min headways: Both directions: 9am-4pm: every 15min 2 cars trains at 15 min headways: Both directions: 4pm-6pm peak: every 3min 2 car trains at 3 min headways: Both directions:

8,400 16800

pphpd total passengers

1000 2000

pphpd total passengers

8,400 16800

pphpd total passengers

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6pm-1am: every 15min 2 cars trains at 15 min headways: Both directions: Total per day:

1000 2000 37600

pphpd total passengers passengers per day

Table 5: Yearly estimated revenue

passengers per day average ticket cost Daily revenue Yearly revenue 360 days

37600 2.50 94,000.00 33,840,000.00

At this current esitmated yearly revenue the debt repayment time is currently 50 years. This is deemed far too long so it is propsed that a land tax rise be imposed on industrail and commercical site that will benefit from the integreation of this system. A tax on entry to the city centre for non commerical vehicle is also proposed during peak hours to reduce the debt replayment period.

Environmental Impact

The prevention of any environmental damage is of major concern during any civil constuction project. The following factors shall be tackled once this proposal has been accepted: Impact on Human welfare: Landuse Socio-economics Noise Vibration Radiation and stray current Traffic Flora and fauna Soil and geology Groundwater Page 11

Impact on Natures welfare:

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Surface water Air and climate factors Landscape Archeology Cultural heritage

Impact on coutries assets:

Final Recommendation
It should be acknolowedged that this project is not envisaged as a standalone one. All transport and infrastrucal planning should be done with a sense of unity to join the greater dublin area. Prior to the begining of construction it should be ensured that legal meaures can be put in place to allow 24/7 construction to speed up the delivery process. All platform stops should be designed to allow for growth of carriage numbers in the future. All work being carried out for the dublin swift is to comply with current EU legislation and international practice. The efficient operation of stations is a necessity and so further work is needed to determine whether, turnstile, prepay or ticketless systems should be put in place.

References

[1] A Platform for Change Outline of an integrated transportation strategy for the Greater Dublin Area - 2000 to 2016. http://www.dto.ie/platform1.pdf [2] A Platform for change http://www.dto.ie/platform1.pdf [3] Keegan, O.P, Symposium on traffic congestion in Dublin: policy options, Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland Vol. XXXII [4] C L Fouvy, BEE, MS (CivEng), MIEAust, MCIT, MAAS The Melbourne regions opportunity and need for rapid transit, Railway technical society of Australia. [5] NRA website. (Accessed 11/5/11) http://www.nratraffic.ie/traveltimes/default.asp?RegionId=1

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