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Bryan Rich
By Bryan Rich
2012. All Rights Reserved. No part of this E-Book may be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Logic Fund Management, Inc.
Table of Contents
About the Author.. 4 Welcome and Introduction.. 5 Sovereign Debt Crisis Just Getting Started 7 The Euro: Flawed for the Beginning .. 11 The REAL Risk in Europe. 16 The music stops ONLY when the people say no more . 20 The End Game for the Euro . 22 How to Protect and Profit .. 22 Learn more .. 23
Bryan Rich is an entrepreneur and an accomplished currency specialist with more than 14-years of experience in trading, research, and consulting in the global foreign exchange markets. He is President of Logic Fund Management, a currency and macro advisory and consulting firm. Bryan began his career as a trader for a $600 million family office hedge fund in London. The macro-oriented fund managed assets for a prominent European family. Later, he was a senior trader for a $750 million leading global macro hedge fund located in South Florida. There, he helped manage and trade a multibillion dollar foreign exchange options portfolio.
His consulting resume includes work for a boutique currency fund in New York, where he developed trading models and strategy for the core investment program of the company. He later joined the company as a partner, based in their Wall Street office.
He has a BA from the University of North Florida and an MBA from Rollins College.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Follow Bryan at www.globalinvestorweekly.com and www.fxtraderprofessional.com.
Over the past three and a half years, Ive written extensively about the global financial crisis, the global recession the ongoing sovereign debt crisis, currency wars and the impending fall of the euro. Back in January of 2009, I wrote a widely published piece titled, Why It Could Be Curtains for the Euro. In that piece, I pointed to the many flaws that had been exposed in Europes single currency concept, following the eruption of the global economic crisis. It was clear that when economies in Europe were put under stress, when the global economic crisis unfolded, and global investors started scrutinizing the balance sheets and fiscal position of countries, the weak countries in Europe were in trouble. And it was clear that it was going to be very bad news for the euro currency. Indeed, when the skirt was lifted in Europe, it was found that many countries within the euro zone had structurally unsustainable economies, designed to take advantage of a stable currency and stable, low interest rates that had been anchored by their strongest
2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Will the Euro Become the Most Hated Currency for 2010?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 7:30am
When the markets finally began demanding interest rates to compensate them for the risk of holding debt in a country with uber-high debt levels and massive budget deficits thats when the euros demise was set into motion. I warned of this very early on, and warned of the threats the euro represented to the global economy. As the worlds second most widely held currency, which is tied to the largest aggregate economy in the world -- the euro zone clearly, the reverberations of a euro demise would be very bad news for the global economy. But all along, the politicians, influential economists, Wall Street figure heads and government leaders, not only didnt see it coming, but actually touted the euro as the candidate to replace the dollar as the worlds reserve currency.
With that in mind, given the poor advice thats been distributed to investors in such a critical time in history, its never been more Important to educate yourself on the challenges facing the world. And a big one is the euro.
2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Europes Common A Study of Market Eight exemplifi Centuries of es a Financial situation Crises shows that is unfavora Financial ble to a Crises tend common to lead to currency.
So I want to give you some perspective on the big-picture, and where we are today. Because as an investor the bigpicture is critical for you. It can mean the difference between making and losing a lot of money.
First, during this economic crisis, we endured the sharpest fall in global economic activity since the Great Depression, and one of the most threatening financial crises. Yet all along the way, markets, politicians and policymakers were expecting, or rather hoping, for a quick return to normalcy. But its all been based false hope and naive expectations. Heres why The IMF has done what is perhaps one of the most thorough studies on recessions that share the combination of a global recession and financial crisis like the one weve experienced.
And the IMFs study shows that the recoveries of past recessions with these dualities (global recession and financial crisis) tend to be longer and slower than normal recoveries.
Moreover, theres a very important study that has been done on historical financial crises. It was done by a Harvard economist, Kenneth Rogoff and a Maryland economist, Carmen Reinhart. These two compiled the most extensive database of this type of crisis and they found striking commonalities in the aftermath. First, they found in studying over eight centuries of financial crises, that they tend to be followed by 2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Given this analysis, we should expect a sovereign debt contagion. And we should expect defaults.
Rogoff and Reinhart presented this analysis as early as 2008. And its been nothing less than a playbook for the way this global crisis has played out. Reinhart went on to look at the 15 severe financial crises since World War II and found that they were typically driven by credit bubbles. And the credit buildup typically took as long to de-lever as it took to build. Credit Buildups and Deleveraging of Debt Are Long Cycles In the current case, the credit build was about a decade. If you mark the start of the crisis as 2007, that means were just half way through the deleveraging phase. And deleveraging tends to mean ultra-slow economic activity as consumers, businesses and governments are paying down debt, not spending. So those that have been looking for recovery at every corner, are not in touch with the magnitude of this global economic crisis.
Reinharts research also suggested that throughout this 10-year deleveraging period: 1) Economic growth will trend at lower levels than pre-crisis growth, 2) Housing prices will
Greece is on its second round of life support for the EU/IMF. And its debt holders are getting less than 30 cents on the dollar back on their investments the same debt that was stamped as A-rated just three years ago! Stage #3: Downgrades And while many are waiting to wave the allclear signal for Europe, it doesnt stop with When deficits and debts rise and economic Greece. Expect Portugal and Ireland to come calling for debt relief next. 2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All Rights 10 Reserved.
Predicting failure
Famed Economist Milton Friedman predicted, shortly before 2000, that the euro-member countries would succumb to systematic flaws and fail within ten years. He might not have been too far off. He said: A one size fits all monetary policy doesnt give the member countries the flexibility needed to stimulate their economies.
A fractured fiscal policy forced to adhere to rigid EU rules doesnt enable member governments to navigate their country-specific problems, such as deficit spending and public works projects.
Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors. A common currency can act as handcuffs in perilous times. Exchange rates can be used as a tool to revalue debt and improve competitiveness of ones economy. I want to focus on these four bullets. What did Friedman mean? Bullet #1 What did Friedman mean when he called the euro zone monetary policy one size fits all? Put simply, the member countries in the EMU cant cool down their economy, nor stimulate it as needed when they have no direct power over monetary policy.
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This is a key fundamental problem for European Monetary Union members. The fact is, their economies may be, and will likely be, operating at different speeds from one another. Therefore, whats good monetary policy for Germany, could be bad monetary policy for Spain. Yet, through the European Central Bank, there is one central power over interest rate setting policy. And they will tend to set that policy based on how the bigger, stronger economies are behaving. What tends to happen, in this case, is that countries that are performing poorly, without the luxury of cutting interest rates, will find other ways to stimulate their economies. And they do so through fiscal policies, like cutting taxes and increasing government spending. Typically, there is a natural economic mechanism that keeps these fiscal policies in check: Its called the financial markets. When countries cut too much and spend too much, threatening their solvency or financial position, global investors penalize them by selling their currency and selling their government bonds. After all, who wants to invest in a country that may not be able to generate enough revenue to pay their bills and pay you back. With that, when the currency falls and government interest rates rise, it makes it more expensive to trade and more expensive to borrow. In the case of the EMU members, they never had that penalty, until recently. They found that they could keep pushing their economies along through very liberal fiscal policies, and never suffer consequences. Because the markets continually valued the euro currency and euro zone interest rates based on the strongest euro zone countries: France and Germany.
Bullet #2
So given the discussion above on the incentive for countries to use (possibly abuse) fiscal policies to stimulate economic 2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
activity, the European officials that conceived the monetary union built in limits on the extent to which countries could spend or carry debt. They limited budget deficits to 3% of GDP. And they set a ceiling on how much debt a member country could have at 60% of GDP. That may sound good policing procedures on paper, but in fact, it creates more problems. It further handcuffs these member countries. When a country is in recession, deficit spending and government spending can be an effective way to achieve economic recovery. And they may need to run a bigger deficit for a period of time to bridge the downturn in their economic cycle i.e. until the economy naturally returns to organic growth.
These limits set in the EMU rule book, the Maastricht Treaty, in theory, restricted a countries ability to work through these economic downturns using fiscal policy. That creates more problems, as Friedman forecasted. Bullet #3
Given bullets one and two countries within the monetary union are bound to run into economic problems. And Friedman argued that the citizens of stronger countries would have a hard time parting with spending their money to bailout weaker member countries.
Bullet #4 Finally, the easiest way to solve indebtedness and a weak economy is through currency devaluation. It inflates away the debt and makes exporting easier typically a key driver in emerging from recession. But members of the euro dont have that tool. The common currency is, like monetary policy, out of the control of country governments.
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The Problems in the Euro Zone Are All Rooted in the Single Currency: The Euro!
The euro-member countries are in trouble for all of the reasons Milton Friedman, one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, cited prior to that currencys inception over twelve years ago. The global recession and financial crisis has resulted in ballooning debt levels and growing budget deficits for nearly all major economies. And typically, when countries find they cant pay, they have two options: Either a currency devaluation to reduce the value of debt OR an outright default. Neither will work with weak EMU countries after all, they share a currency with 15 other countries (now 16). So currency devaluation is not a tool at their disposal. That makes an outright default by a troubled euromember the most practical option. But its NOT an option, at least not an option the euro zone members can consider for reasons Ill cover a bit later. For now, the euro zone officials have created option #3: pour money into these weak countries to keep them breathing and then attempt to force all member countries into a fiscal union where fiscal policy is managed at a central level. But fiscal union is an unimaginable step. It would entail all members to give up their sovereignty, their history, their rich cultures and heritage. The result would be a United States of Europe, where government, monetary and fiscal policy would all be made in Brussels and likely led by the strongest countries Germany and France.
And it would mean transferring wealth from the stronger euro zone countries to the weaker ones. 2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All 15 Rights Reserved.
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If you owe the bank $1,000, you have a problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, the bank has a problem.
That was a jaw-dropping move that completely contradicted the guiding principles of the European Monetary Union. When they made the decision to take tax payer money from the likes of Germany and give it to Greece, the politicians effectively tore up the Constitution right then, right there.
2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Source: BIS 2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
Social Uprising:
The music stops ONLY when the people say no more
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Systemic:
But theyve proven time after time to be just the opposite: Contagious!
Thats been the case with sovereign debt problems in Europe once said to be contained and now known to be systemic. And its proving to be the case with public uprisings, too. It started in the Middle East, and now its finally spreading through Europe.
Weve seen these uprisings across Europe to fight the tough austerity measures that have been imposed, in many cases, by politicians from other countries or global organizations, like the IMF.
The people are finally standing up against what promises to be a long road of economic depression especially those in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, all of which have taken direct bailout money and are now dealing with the massive job losses, government spending cuts and tax hikes associated with taking money from its EU neighbors and the IMF. To be sure, the politicians will keep this game going of floating these insolvent countries as long as possible. And they will continue to use their power over these countries to attempt to force them into a fiscal union unifying Europe into a United States.
But at some point, the people will say enough is enough keep your money and keep your euro.
2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Dear Investor, If there is one thing thats been clear throughout the duration of this global economic crisis, its that average investors have been given bad information and bad advice all along the way. In short, its exposed the Wall Street machine for what it is a mechanism to soak money from the masses, for the enrichment of few. Its exposed the financial media as tabloid-like operations, more concerned with creating great headlines than they are about communicating facts. And its exposed government leadership as ill-prepared, inexperienced and nave, in handling the worst economic period of our lifetimes. The net effect of those three sources of poor guidance and mis-information has been wealth destruction for average investors. For the many investors that lost in the stock market collapse, its meant insult to injury. Ive always thought to myself, there has to be a better way. Thats led me to create Global ETF Monthly an investment advisory program that is free of conflict, with focus on one thing: intelligent investing. With ETFs, its never been easier to diversify across geography and asset class in a cost efficient way. Thats a big advantage in preserving and growth capital in todays environment. So there are no excuses. Dont leave your net worth exposed to a broker or mutual fund manager or the swings of the broader stock market. Join me by becoming a member of Global ETF Monthly! If you do so today, for reading my E-Book, youll receive 25% off of the annual membership. To get your discount please see the next page. Sincerely, Bryan Rich
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