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- Applied to validating a re-survey policy involving shipping grounding dangers based on AIS data
Thainne A.G.P. van Dijk (Deltares & University Twente) Kees van der Tak, Erwin van Iperen (MARIN)
15 February 2012
Presentation
Introduction Sea bed morphology (marine bedforms) Echo sounding data
Introduction
Part 1 Morphodyn
Methods and Results: quantification sea bed dynamics Vertical dynamics NCS Morphodynamics of individual marine bedforms Methods and results: modelling grounding dangers from AIS data (MARIN) Regular grounding danger Object grounding danger Validation and optimisation of a re-survey policy Conclusions
Part 2 Application
Rationale
Bathymetry [m -GLLWS] + 2.72 m - 71.07 m
Introduction
Dynamic bedforms Local studies of seabed dynamics in the North Sea (e.g. offshore wind farm sites) Quantification of vertical dynamics NCS wide and detailed analyses of bedforms provide knowledge on the spatial variation of sea bed dynamics
Marine bedforms
Introduction
sand banks
sand waves
Marine bedforms
Introduction
Bedform Offshore sand banks (tidal ridges) Long bed waves Sand waves megaripples
NLHO BAS
Part 1: Morphodyn
Part 1: Morphodyn
Part 1: Morphodyn
Part 1: Morphodyn
Coast is dynamic: tidal inlets and tidal channels Estuaries NCS less dynamic Relatively dynamic on NCS: north of Texel west of Texel southern part with bedforms anthropogenic
10
Part 1: Morphodyn
Dynamic areas NCS: Long bed wave field (n. Texel) Sand wave field (w. Texel) Southern NCS with bedforms
Non-dynamic areas NCS: > 30 m deep north of Wadden islands zone offshore North-Holland locally offshore South-Holland and Zealand
11
Part 1: Morphodyn
(Winter, 2011)
Part 1: Morphodyn
1. Sand waves west of Texel & TWIN area 2. Long bed waves north of Texel 3. Shoreface-connected ridges north of Ameland
13
14
Part 1: Morphodyn
1. Sand waves west of Texel Sand wave migration rate: west of Texel: 19 m/yr NCS: 0 5 m/yr
min 100
Part 1: Morphodyn
SW -30
NE
-32
1. Sand waves south-west on the NCS (TWIN area) time series of 11 datasets Sand wave migration rate: ranges between -4.5 and +0.064 m/yr Average 1.5 m/yr to SW Sand wave growth: <0.2 m/yr
-34
-36 2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
min 140
16
Part 1: Morphodyn
2. Long bed waves north of Texel & Vlieland: migration 12.4 m/yr to NE (ranges from 10.5 to 18.4 m/yr)
-24 SW 1 2 4 5 NE
3 -26
-28
Part 1: Morphodyn
3. Shoreface-connected ridges north of Ameland and Schier: migration ~0 m/yr growth ~ 0 m/yr
seabed elevation around zero (m)
SSW NNE
1997,1998 2006
-5 0 5 10 15 20
Part 2: Application
gcaptain.com
0.4 0.4
all
all new
Known objects at the sea bed Known new objects at the sea bed
probabability
probabability
0 0
5 5
15 15
20 20
20
If the actual margin > desired margin no grounding danger (= 0) If the actual margin < 0 ship certainly grounds If the actual margin < desired margin and > 0 probability of grounding
AIS-database
Automatic Identification System observation every two minutes
Part 2: Application
Traffic is allocated to cells (1 x 1 km) Per cel: number of ships with draught in classes of 1 m Danger when depth is smaller than the critical depth
Part 2: Application
all ships year-1 km-2 with approach average to harbours respect to channels water depth (actual margin ma < 0) shallow shipping lane ma = WD(t) draught small areas Critical water depth = 4 spots DWRE draught +of Terschelling north UKC + 2 [m]
262,800 obs/year 10000, i.e. 1 in 26.28 observations is a ship with a negative margin 1 obs ~ 1 ship
Part 2: Application
for mean water depth traffic lanesships year-1 km-2 Number of for which margin anchorage areas is exceeded based on probability unknown objects
Assumption: Known objects are not a danger, since these are marked. Simplifications: speed = 14 knots (deep ships) thus overestimation in anchorage areas, but here also higher probability for objects
MARINs object grounding danger on NCS for all ships per km2 per year
24
Part 2: Application
GIS-overlay method: re-survey policy combined grounding dangers for ships for water depth and unknown objects morphodynamics (dz/dt) as predicted water depths 2011, 2015, 2020
25
Part 2: Application
CAT 1 at least every 2 years CAT 2 4 years CAT 3 6 years CAT 4 10 years CAT 5 15 years
Validation of categories
Category 1
occurrence of total (%)
Part 2: Application
CAT 1 at least every 2 years CAT 2 4 years CAT 3 6 years CAT 4 10 years CAT 5 15 years
Ca tegory 5
occurrence of total (%)
100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 10 11 20 21 22 23 30 31 32 33
27
Part 2: Application
Steps towards a new plan 1. Category division based on danger maps 2. Assignment of re-survey frequencies to categories based on predictions Step 1 New plan alike existing policy in both division and distribution of categories Some sites show higher dangers (DWRE) Also areas where the resurvey frequency may be lowered Step 2 --> predictions
28
Part 2: Application
Difference maps
29
Part 2: Application
2015 2020
30
Part 2: Application
31
Conclusions
Quantified vertical dynamics of the NCS is the first overview study of the NCS highly dynamic coastal zone (> 0.3 m/yr) and less dynamic offshore dynamic offshore: marine bedforms (0 to 0.3 m/yr) non-dynamic: > 30 m water depth, north of Wadden islands, small areas (< 0.02 m/yr) Migration rates of individual marine bedforms: sand waves 0 5 m/yr NCS; 19 m/yr west of Texel long bed waves (1 location) 12.4 m/yr shoreface-connected ridges north of Wadden islands are nearly stable Morphodynamics can be used in the application of validating and optimising re-survey policies, variation of the occurrences of high and low dangers within one category pleads for rearrangement of the categories and re-survey frequencies assign re-survey frequencies by predicting the development of dangers in the future. Regular grounding danger largest in approach channels and some local areas (e.g. Deep Water Route East due to sand banks) Object grounding danger largest in traffic lanes and in anchorage areas
32
Acknowledgements
Netherlands Hydrographic Office, Royal Netherlands Navy Provided all echo sounding data Financed the project
Maritime Simulation Centre Netherlands, Maritime Research Institute Netherlands modelled grounding dangers
Netherlands Coastguard
33
RWS-project 2011
Research project on the sea bed dynamics: Quantitative morphodynamics of approach channels and the river Waal Factors controlling the spatial and temporal morphodynamic variation Advice on re-survey plan
Morphodynamic trend
(a) node (25,0)
5 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 4
5 4 y = 0.9214x - 0.6571 R2 = 0.8021 10
y= x R =1
2
z (m)
time (years) 3
2 1 0
10
Typen data
SBES
100 x 100 m
5743100
In addition
MBES
10 x 10 m
5805900
5743050
5805895
Digitale data uit BAS: reductie tot 1 observatie per 3x5m Gedigitaliseerde minuutbladen lagere resolutie
595260
5743000 530100
530150
530200
5805890 595250
595255
3 redenen van onzekerheid bij vergelijk: Breedte SBES straal: eerste reflectie (ondiepste punt binnen straal) Getijdereductie Ondiepste punt geselecteerd op minuurtbladen
36
Part 1: Morphodyn
Objective 1: tijdseries
In addition
Stijgende trend in verticale dynamiek Periode van opneming geen groot effect op nauwkeurigheid Meeste tijdseries korter:
39
In addition
40