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Steel Industry Update/271

February 2012

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007

Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, December & Year-to-Date, 2011
Month of December
2011
2010
% Chg
8,250
7,329
12.6%

(000 net tons)

Raw Steel Production ...............

2011
95,237

Year-to-Date
2010
88,730

% Chg
7.3%

Capacity Utilization .................

75.2

68.4

--

74.4

70.4

--

Mill Shipments ..........................

8,086

7,111

13.7%

91,865

83,444

10.1%

Exports .....................................

1,201

928

29.4%

13,454

12,004

12.1%

Total Imports.............................

2,064

1,872

10.3%

28,515

23,929

19.2%

Finished Steel Imports ............

1,577

1,505

4.8%

21,835

18,857

15.8%

Apparent Steel Supply* .............

8,462

7,688

10.1%

100,246

90,297

11.0%

Imports as % of Supply*..........

18.6

19.6

--

21.8

20.9

--

Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ......

$793

$758

4.7%

$867

$705

23.0%

Scrap Price# ($/ton) ...................

$434

$354

22.6%

$437

$348

25.7%

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker

*Excl semi-finished imports

**Avg price of 3 carbon products

#shredded scrap

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, February & Year-to-Date, 2012

Hot Rolled Band....


Cold Rolled Coil........
Coiled Plate..................

Month of February
2012
2011
% Chg
735
845
-13.0%
830
926
-10.4%
934
968
-3.5%

2012
732
830
942

Average Spot Price....

$833

$913

-8.8%

$835

$881

-5.3%

#1 Heavy Melt...
Shredded Scrap...
#1 Busheling.

393
435
470

396
432
465

-0.8%
0.7%
1.1%

407
451
487

411
444
471

-1.0%
1.6%
3.4%

($ per net ton)

Year-to-Date
2011
% Chg
809
-9.5%
906
-8.4%
929
1.4%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, 2/12

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Steel Industry Update/271

Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, January & Year-to-Date, 2012


Month of January
Year-to-Date
(000 metric tons)
Region
2012
2011
% Chg
2012
2011
European Union.
13,920
14,744
-5.6%
13,920
14,744
Other Europe.
3,384
3,040
11.3%
3,384
3,040

% Chg
-5.6%
11.3%

C.I.S.

9,404

9,541

-1.4%

9,404

9,541

North America

10,340

9,874

4.7%

10,340

9,874

-1.4%
4.7%

South America...

3,798

3,746

1.4%

3,798

3,746

1.4%

Africa/Middle East.....

1,549

1,571

-1.4%

1,549

1,571

-1.4%

Asia..

73,823

83,361

-11.4%

73,823

83,361

-11.4%

Oceania......

458

733

-37.5%

458

733

-37.5%

Total

116,675

126,609

-7.8%

116,675

126,609

-7.8%

China.......
Japan...

52,072
8,631

59,871
9,655

-13.0%
-10.6%

52,072
8,631

59,871
9,655

-13.0%
-10.6%

United States..

7,600

7,191

5.7%

7,600

7,191

5.7%

India(e).

6,100

6,145

-0.7%

6,100

6,145

-0.7%

Country

Russia.

5,948

5,927

0.4%

5,948

5,927

0.4%

South Korea.......

5,120

5,664

-9.6%

5,120

5,664

-9.6%

Germany...

3,353

3,665

-8.5%

3,353

3,665

-8.5%

Turkey..

3,135

2,741

14.4%

3,135

2,741

14.4%

Ukraine....

2,871

2,918

-1.6%

2,871

2,918

-1.6%

Brazil....

2,780

2,764

0.6%

2,780

2,764

0.6%

All Others....

19,065

20,068

-5.0%

19,065

20,068

-5.0%

Source: World Steel Association, 2/12; e=estimate

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, January 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 2/12; in million metric tons

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Steel Industry Update/271

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization Ratio, January, 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 2/12

Table 4: Worlds Top Steelmaking Countries, 2006-2011p


Country
China
Japan
US
India
Russia
South Korea
Germany
Ukraine
Brazil
Turkey
Italy
Taiwan
Mexico
Others
Total World

2006
419.1
116.2
98.6
49.5
70.8
48.5
47.2
40.9
30.9
23.3
31.6
20.0
16.4
234.2
1,247.2

2007
489.3
120.2
98.1
53.5
72.4
51.5
48.6
42.8
33.8
25.8
31.6
20.9
17.6
240.0
1,346.1

2008
500.3
118.7
91.4
57.8
68.5
53.6
45.8
37.3
33.7
26.8
30.6
19.9
17.2
225.6
1,327.2

2009
573.6
87.5
58.2
62.8
60.0
48.6
32.7
29.9
26.5
25.3
19.8
15.9
14.0
174.6
1,229.4

Source: WorldSteel.org, 2/7/12; in million tonnes; % Chg is 2011/2010

-3-

2010
638.7
109.6
80.5
68.3
66.9
58.9
43.8
33.4
32.9
29.1
25.8
19.8
16.7
202.8
1,413.6

2011p
695.5
107.6
86.2
72.2
68.7
68.5
44.3
35.3
35.2
34.1
28.7
22.7
18.1
209.8
1,526.9

% Chg
8.9%
-1.8%
7.1%
5.7%
2.7%
16.2%
1.0%
5.7%
6.8%
17.0%
11.3%
14.7%
8.6%
0.3%
6.8%

Steel Industry Update/271


Table 5: World Crude Steel Production, 2006-2011p
(million tonnes)

Europe
EU (27)
CIS
North America
United States
South America
Africa
Middle East
Asia
China
Japan
Australia/N Zealand
World Total

2006
355.1
206.9
119.9
131.8
98.6
45.3
18.7
15.4
674.1
421.0
116.2
8.7
1,249.0

2007
365.0
210.2
124.2
132.6
98.1
48.2
18.7
16.5
757.3
489.7
120.2
8.8
1,347.0

2008
344.3
198.2
114.3
124.5
91.4
47.4
17.0
16.6
783.0
512.3
118.7
8.4
1,341.2

2009
266.1
139.4
97.6
82.6
58.2
37.8
15.3
17.7
810.4
577.1
87.5
6.0
1,235.8

2010
314.4
172.6
108.2
111.4
80.5
43.9
16.6
19.6
915.8
638.7
109.6
8.1
1,429.9

2011p
329.0
177.4
112.6
118.9
86.2
48.4
14.3
20.9
988.2
695.5
107.6
7.2
1,526.9

% Chg
4.6%
2.8%
4.0%
6.8%
7.1%
10.2%
-13.8%
6.9%
7.9%
8.9%
-1.8%
-11.1%
6.8%

Source: World Steel Association, 2/12; % Chg is 2011/2010

Table 6: US Steel Imports by Country, December 2012 & Year-to-Date


Country
Japan
EU
Canada
Brazil
Korea
Mexico
Russia
China
Australia
South Africa
Indonesia
Turkey
Ukraine
India
Others
Total

Dec 11
142
217
401
312
201
190
53
86
11
4
1
66
25
53
234
1,996

Dec 10
144
368
408
192
195
216
69
64
42
18
3
20
12
27
94
1,872

% Chg
-1.3%
-41.0%
-1.7%
62.4%
2.9%
-12.2%
-23.3%
34.3%
-73.8%
-75.5%
-127.2%
230.6%
111.2%
95.9%
148.5%
6.6%

YTD 11
1,986
4,207
6,030
3,109
2,836
2,891
1,376
1,238
814
135
51
717
358
798
1,901
28,447

YTD 10
1,482
4,305
6,643
995
2,041
2,822
1,375
861
559
121
32
582
130
776
1,205
23,929

% Chg
34.0%
-2.3%
-9.2%
212.4%
38.9%
2.4%
0.1%
43.8%
45.6%
11.9%
59.7%
23.2%
175.7%
2.8%
57.7%
18.9%

Source: Steel Guru, 2/1/12; in 000 tons

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. All
rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

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Steel Industry Update/271

Table 7: US Steel Exports by Country, 2010 & 2011


Country
Canada
Mexico
EU
Russia
Turkey
Brazil
Venezuela
Ecuador
Argentina
Colombia
Trinidad and Tobago
Peru
Chile
Dominican Republic
Panama
Others
Total

2011
6,730,288
3,440,829
603,081
8,864
32,358
160,101
95,752
50,495
13,974
120,021
19,162
126,900
35,761
216,541
117,583
1,682,485
13,454,195

2010
6,630,872
2,605,787
472,299
10,558
21,700
157,587
68,182
62,167
16,187
110,723
16,845
96,410
40,909
277,572
99,262
1,316,772
12,003,832

% Chg
1.5%
32.0%
27.7%
-16.0%
49.1%
1.6%
40.4%
-18.8%
-13.7%
8.4%
13.8%
31.6%
-12.6%
-22.0%
18.5%
27.8%
12.1

Source: Steel Guru, 2/14/12; in tons

Table 8: US Sales Volume by Top Seven Automakers, December & YTD 2011
Automaker
General Motors
Ford
Toyota
Chrysler
Honda
Nissan
Hyundai/Kia
Total Top 7

Dec 11
234.4
210.1
178.1
138.0
105.2
101.0
94.2
1,061.0

Dec 10
224.2
191.0
177.5
100.7
129.6
93.7
75.2
991.9

% Chg
4.5%
10.0%
0.4%
37.1%
-18.8%
7.7%
25.1%
7.0%

2011
2,503.8
2,148.8
1,644.7
1,369.1
1,147.3
1,042.5
1,131.2
10,987.4

2010
2,215.2
1,935.5
1,763.6
1,085.2
1,230.5
908.6
894.5
10,033.1

% Chg
13.0%
11.0%
-6.7%
26.2%
-6.8%
14.7%
26.5%
9.5%

Source: American Metal Market, 1/6/12; in 000s units

Table 9: NAFTA Automotive Production, 2008-2113p


NAFTA Autos
% Light Truck
NAFTA Heavy Truck

2008
12,599
50.8%
218

2009
8,559
53.7%
135

Source: Metal Center News, December 2011; in 000s units

-5-

2010
11,905
57.3%
165

2011e
12,775
58.4%
249

2012p
13,414
59.1%
293

2013p
13991
59.4%
335

Steel Industry Update/271

Table 10: Outokumpu Financial Results, 2011


FY 11
$5,009
80
-260
-109
-66
-253
-318
-$186
1,391
$1,181
8,253

Sales
EBITDA
Operating profit
Excluding non-recurring items
Underlying operational result
Profit before taxes
Excluding non-recurring items
Net profit for the period
Stainless steel deliveries*
Stainless steel base price ($EUR)
Personnel at the end of period

FY 10
$4,229
172
-83
-66
-91
-143
-135
-$124
1,315
$1,252
8,431

% Chg
18.4%
-53.5%
213.3%
65.2%
-27.5%
76.9%
135.6%
50.0%
5.8%
-5.7%
-2.1%

Source: SteelGuru, 2/2/12; in EUR million dollars; *steel deliveries in 000 tonnes

Table 11: ArcelorMittal Results, 2011


FY 11
$93,973
10,117
4,898
2,262
1
54
28
92
86
118

Sales
EBITDA
Operating Income
Net income
Basic EPS
Own iron ore output
Iron ore shipped
Crude steel output
Steel shipment
EBITDA/tonne

FY 10
$78,025
8,525
3,605
2,916
2
49
25
91
85
100

% Chg
20.4%
18.7%
35.9%
-22.4%
-24.4%
10.6%
11.1%
1.4%
0.9%
18.0%

Source: SteelGuru, 2/2/12; in US$, except Basic EPS; steel/ore in million tonnes

Table 12: ArcelorMittals Flat Carbon Americas Results, 2011


Sales
EBITDA
Operating Income
Crude Steel Production ('000 tonnes)
Steel Shipments ('000 tonnes)
Avg Steel Selling Price (US$/tonne)
EBITDA/tonne (US$/tonne)
Operating Income/tonne (US$/tonne)

Q4 '11
$5,030
237
1
6,009
5,458
$868
43
3

Source: SteelGuru, 2/9/12; in US$ unless noted

-6-

Q3 '11
$5.499
420
193
5,866
5,708
$910
74
34

Q3 '10
$4,573
158
-67
5,636
5,432
$769
29
-12

FY '11
$21,035
2,109
1,198
24,215
22,249
$892
95
54

FY '10
$17,684
1,555
691
23,101
21,028
$781
74
33

Steel Industry Update/271

Exhibit 1: Automotive Materials Shipments, 2008-2025p

Source: Metal Center News, December 2011

Exhibit 2: Chinese Exports of Steel Mill Products by Partner, October 2011

Source: Metal Center News, January 2011

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Steel Industry Update/271

Imports: Country of Origin


(000 net tons)

Canada..
Mexico
Other W. Hemisphere..
European Union
Other Europe*..
Asia.
Oceania.
Africa..
Total
Imports: Customs District
Atlantic Coast
Gulf Coast/Mexican Border
Pacific Coast.
Gr Lakes/Canadian Border.
Off Shore

Month of December
2011
2010
% Chg
402
408
-1.5%
190
216
-12.0%
349
212
64.6%
338
368
-8.2%
171
103
66.0%
585
495
18.2%
25
50
-50.0%
4
19
-78.9%
2,064
1,872
10.3%
196
955
387
515
11

238
789
302
532
11

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update #271
-8-

-17.6%
21.0%
28.1%
-3.2%
0.0%

2011
6,032
2,890
3,487
4,329
2,558
8,128
948
144
28,515
3,070
12,850
5,028
7,374
193

Year-to-Date
2010
% Chg
6,643
-9.2%
2,822
2.4%
1,277
173.1%
4,305
0.6%
2,154
18.8%
5,940
36.8%
659
43.9%
129
11.6%
23,929
19.2%
2,971
8,423
4,413
7,920
202

3.3%
52.6%
13.9%
-6.9%
-4.5%

Locker Associates, Inc.


LOCKER ASSOCIATES is a business-consulting firm that specializes in enhancing the
competitiveness of businesses and industries on behalf of unions, corporate and government
clients. By combining expert business and financial analysis with a sensitivity to labor issues,
the firm is uniquely qualified to help clients manage change by:

leading joint labor/management business improvement initiatives;


facilitating ownership transitions to secure the long-term viability of a business;
conducting strategic industry studies to identify future challenges and opportunities;
representing unions in strategic planning, workplace reorganization and bankruptcy
formulating business plans for turnaround situations; and
performing due diligence for equity and debt investors.

Over the last 28 years, the firm has directed over 225 projects spanning manufacturing,
transportation, distribution and mining industries. Typical projects involve in-depth analysis of a
firms market, financial and operating performance on behalf of a cooperative labormanagement effort. Locker Associates also produces a widely read monthly newsletter, Steel
Industry Update that circulates throughout the U.S. and Canadian steel industry.

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RECENT PROJECTS
Business Plan for High-Tech Startup (2009-present): drafted detailed business plan to
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impacting warehouse performance and provide recommendations for joint improvement
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market before the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries Commodities roundtable

Save the World Air-Marketing (2009-present): developed a marketing plan to help drive
sales of a green technology product, ELEKTRA, an electronic fuel device for trucks that
increases fuel economy (mpg's), reduces exhaust emissions and improves engine performance

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