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Abstract
Contents
Contents...........................................................................................................................1
Introduction.................................................................................................................2
History of the question .............................................................................................10
About possibility of explosion of nuclear fuel cells. ................................................12
Possibility of explosion of a giant planet..................................................................14
Explosion consequences ...........................................................................................26
Other possible explosions of planets. .......................................................................29
The literature:............................................................................................................34
Introduction
The main problem with considering the possibility of giant planet explosions
is that people think that it is a ridiculous concept and dismiss the idea before
considering the evidence. It reeks of bad science fiction. So they don't consider the
arguments and miss the chance to find that the arguments are much more convincing
than commonly thought a priori. The same problem colors any discussion of strong
AGI. (artificial general intelligence, an easily replicatable artificial mind that can
‘teach’ its successors rapidly through uploading). Still, the reason these ideas became
the subject of so many lurid fictions is because they are existential dangers, each in
their own way—and thus were compelling subjects for storytelling. The fact that bad
stories were written should not stop us from considering the scientific realities that the
fictions were based upon.
Even if the lower value is correct, point 3) below can cancel that benefit, as
will become apparent:
3) It was found that deuterium isotope separation easily happens by natural processes,
and in particular that the concentration of heavy gases (such as helium) is increasing
as gravitational settling and rainout in the interior of giant planets. (The so-called
‘helium rain’) And such is most likely true for deuterium as well. Consequently, in the
bowels of the giant planets may be regions of sufficient concentration of deuterium to
support a detonation wave.
And to reach these depths is not difficult, because the planet is liquid. (It should be
noted that the temperature at depth in the giant planets is tens of thousands of degrees.
However, depending on the results of computer modeling, (specifically on the time
required for descent to target depths and the insulation efficiency of a many-layer
sinking body containing the warhead) there may be in principle ways to insulate a
bomb to a given pressure level if the concentration of thermonuclear fuel is known in
the target region before sinking the bomb there.)
Thus the technology of explosion of the giant planets, in principle, may be reachable
for our civilization now.
Finally, if somehow all the deuterium in the depths of Jupiter were to enter
into a runaway thermonuclear reaction, then it will emit the energy equivalent of about
3000 years of luminescence of the Sun during a few tens of seconds. That is enough
to disrupt the Earth's atmosphere and melt the upper few kilometers of soil, (and
deeper than that we cannot penetrate for shelter protection because of the hot interior
of the earth) and destroy all future human colonies in the Solar system. Thus, the
explosion of the giant planets can be a powerful Doomsday Machine suitable for
blackmailing --on any given fringe issue--the entirety of human civilization.
And if such weapons would be created, there is the risk of their use. The
more widespread the capability, the greater the probability of their use.
There are some events which are very improbable, but whose consequence
could be infinitely large (e.g. black holes on the Large Hadron Collider—if such a
thing could be done, it would end everything—at least for humanity.). The possibility
of nuclear ignition of self-sustaining and spreading fusion reactions in giant planets
like Jupiter and Saturn which could lead to the explosion of said planet, is one of
them.
Large quantities of the substance would be fighting that vast pressure and
containment in any attempt (during any detonation) to escape away from the reaction
zone, arguing for containment for sufficient time for any reaction, even a dampened
one, to result in large energy emissions.
Consider also that this thermonuclear fuel—unlike in the Sun-- has never
been involved in nuclear combustion reactions, and it retains easily combustible
components, namely, deuterium, helium-3 and lithium (and maybe boron), which have
burned preferentially in the stars. In addition, the deep interior of giant planets contain
fuel for reactions, which may prompt a runaway burning - namely, the tri-helium
reaction (3 4He = 12C) and for reactions to the accession of hydrogen to oxygen, which,
however, requires to start them a much higher temperature. The material in the deep
bowels of the giant planets is mildly degenerate (electron degeneracy) matter form
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metallic_hydrogen (in the form of a metal ocean), just as
the substance of white dwarfs is--and regularly in the Galaxy explosive thermonuclear
burning of this sort occurs in the form of helium flashes and the flashes of the Type I
supernovae. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium_burning
It may simply be that there is no way to light such a reaction in a giant planet
in nature, but that it would burn perfectly well once lit (by human agency, perhaps.)
This is a serious worry.
The more opaque a given environment, the greater the chances for the reaction within
it to propagate, as energy loss is less (twice the diameter, eight times the interior, four
times the exterior surface). In this connection note that in the interior of the giant
planets there are many impurities and lower transparency (more opacity) can be
expected. Gravitational differentiation and chemical reactions can lead to the
allocation of areas within the planet which are more suitable to run the reaction in its
initial stages.
The stronger will the triggering explosion, the greater will be amount of the
initial field of burning, and the more likely that the response would be self-sustaining,
as the energy loss will be smaller and the number of reaction substances and reaction
times greater. It can be assumed that if lit with a sufficiently powerful fuse (a
thermonuclear bomb of suitable size) the reaction may become self-sustaining.
Recently Galileo spacecraft was impacted into Jupiter. Galileo had nuclear
pellets with plutonium-238 which under some assumptions could undergo chain
reaction and lead to a minor yield nuclear explosion. It is interesting to understand if
such an event could lead to the runaway explosion of a giant planet. Spacecraft Cassini
may similarly in the future be disposed of inside Saturn with unknown consequences.
In the future deliberate ignition of giant planet may become a means of space war.
Such an event could sterilize the entire Solar system.
This article’s purpose is to pose questions which would help ‘bracket the
evidence’ on either side of the question—that explosion of outer planets and smaller
bodies rich in deuterium and other thermonuclear fuels as a result of inadvertent
human activity is impossible.
The core scientific basis for our study could be found in the article
(Necessary conditions for the initiation and propagation of nuclear detonation waves
in plane atmospheres. Thomas A. Weaver and Lowell Wood, Physical review 20 - 1
July 1979,
http://www.lhcdefense.org/pdf/LHC%20-%20Sancho%20v.%20Doe%20-
%20Atmosphere%20Ignition%20-%202%20-%20Wood_AtmIgnition-1.pdf) This
article rejected the possibility of extending the thermonuclear detonation in the Earth's
atmosphere and in Earth's oceans because of balance of the loss of radiation (one that
does not exclude the possibility of reactions involving limited areas: say, a small
deposit of heavy (deuterium rich) ice or heavy methane clathrate upon the ocean floor,
compared with the amount of the entire mass of the earthly oceans - but enough to
lead to disastrous consequences—more fallout than any realistic human-launched
nuclear war (hundreds of thousands of tons of product isotopes) and thus human
extinction.)
It is thus quite conceivable that hydrogenous matter (e.go, CH4, NH3, H2O, or
just H2) relatively rich in deuterium (1 at. %) could accumulate at its normal, zero-
pressure density in substantial thicknesses or planetary surfaces, and such layering
might even be a fairly common feature of the colder, gas-giant planets. If thereby
highly enriched in deuterium (10 at. %), thermonuclear detonation of such layers
could be initiated artificially with attainable nuclear explosives. Even with deuterium
atom fractions approaching 0.3 at. % (less than that observed over multiparsec scales
in Orion), however, such layers might be initiated into propagating thermonuclear
detonation by the impact of large (diam 102 m), ultra-high velocity (^Зх 107 cm/sec)
meteors or comets originating from nearer the galactic center. Such events, though
exceedingly rare, would be spectacularly visible on distance scales of many parsecs.”
(Note that these computations are made for flat atmospheres, (plane
detonations) under the assumption that a balance will be established between radiated
energy in space and energy created during the reaction, while we are talking about
initiating of the explosion inside a giant planet, where the emitted energy will remain
within it, until the planet will be—in worst case—consumed as a source of fresh fuel.
So to merely start the reaction much lower concentrations of deuterium will be
sufficient.)
The first main objection to the possible explosion of giant planets is the
fact that the so-called “Simple Super” by Edward Teller does not work. The “Simple
Super” is the first theoretical model of the hydrogen bomb, which consisted in joining
the tube with liquid deuterium to the atomic bomb, so that the explosion of the atomic
bomb would detonate deuterium. But it turned out that the detonation wave does not
extend down the tube because of the large losses of radiation, which are growing even
while increasing the size of the device (through Compton scattering). After several
years of experiments in the Soviet Union and the United States in the late 1940's this
design abandoned in favor of the scheme with the implosion compression of the tube
casing by radiation.
Another author of the article is Thomas A. Weaver (1985) who got the
following prize: “National Security: For his exceptional contributions to national
security in the physics, design and leadership of x-ray laser experiments, which
include work in atomic physics, radiate transfer and hydrodynamics, material science,
and the development of complex diagnostics. These major accomplishments follow
from earlier research in astrophysics with emphasis on stellar evolution.”
https://www.llnl.gov/llnl/sciencetech/awards/lawrence.jsp (this page doesn’’t
exist now, but see https://www.llnl.gov/str/Pat497.html and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Orlando_Lawrence_Award )
Lowell also got this prize: “The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award was
established in 1959 in honor of a scientist who helped elevate American physics to
world leadership.
Lowell L. Wood (1981)
National Security: For his outstanding contributions to national security in
the areas of directed energy, inertial confinement fusion, underwater communications,
nuclear weapon design concepts, and computer technology.”
Thus, one can presume with some certainty that the claim that the “Simple
Super” of Teller is impossible - is disinformation designed to hinder the establishment
of the hydrogen bomb in a third country - and in any case –at minimum--- we cannot
use data on the impossibility of the “Simple Super” as 100 percent reliable because
people who know from firsthand about the design - argue that the detonation of layers
rich in deuterium is possible.
This figure is four times greater than the concentration of deuterium in the
Earth and only five times less than the required minimum value for the wave of
nuclear detonation. Given the uncertainty in the measurement of the actual
concentration, as well as the uncertainty of what is the real minimum threshold for
launching thermonuclear detonation reaction of deuterium and finally, the availability
of other easy-burning elements (helium-3 and lithium-6) this cannot exclude the
possibility that this concentration—in places at least-- is sufficient to –upon artificial
triggering-- initiate an explosion of Jupiter, or that other giant planets contain high
concentrations.
“On the basis of this data set all Oort cloud comets seem to exhibit a
similar ratio in H2O, enriched by about a factor of two relative to
terrestrial water and approximately one order of magnitude relative
to the protosolar value.”
Roland Meier and Tobias C. Owen. Cometary Deuterium. Space
Science Reviews Volume 90, Numbers 1-2 / Октябрь 1999 г.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/j884385710582805/
The first time we are aware of the possibility of explosion of Jupiter being
considered in a public article was Jacco van der Worp «Could NASA Use Galileo to
Create a Jovian Nagasaki?» http://yowusa.com/space/2003/space-2003-09a/1.shtml In
it is said, that in 2003 of NASA made a decision on splashing down space vehicle
Galileo which was engaged in research of system of Jupiter, into Jupiter, on purpose to
avoid contamination of the (possibly life bearing) satellite of Jupiter Europe with
earthly bacteria (from an uncontrolled future collision). However Worp noted that on
board of Galileo there are radio-isotope heat generators on plutonium-238 which
weight is 12 kg., divided into tablets of 150 gr. These tablets are placed in a strong
heat-resisting casing made from heavy metals – so to endure any accident of the space
vehicle at start from the Earth. Worp pays attention that though there is popular belief
that plutonium-238 is not weapons plutonium, but actually it has a critical mass. The
minimum estimation of its critical mass makes 200 grams and for this reason tablets
was made weighing no more than 150 grams (on pure substance). Modern researches
show, that the critical mass of plutonium-238 in case of a sphere of pure substance
makes about 10 kg. (Updated Critical Mass Estimates for Plutonium-238
http://sti.srs.gov/fulltext/ms9900313/ms9900313.html).
Further Worp assumes, that the nuclear fuel capsules are resistant to impact,
that they will not collapse at the descent of Galileo into upper layers of atmosphere of
Jupiter, and will start to plunge slowly into the ocean of metal liquid hydrogen which
is present, according to modern representations, at certain depths. Heat resistance and
high density will allow them to plunge to significant depth where they will be
compressed by pressure of millions of atmospheres. During some moment pressure
will destroy these tablets. If this final compression occurs extremely quickly – that is if
the tablet external case suddenly breaks, sharp compression of plutonium can result it
in a supercritical condition and lead to nuclear reaction, possibly of explosive
quickness. As ambient pressure will be already millions atmospheres, compression
will be long and the significant part of plutonium will have time to react, that will
result in growth of temperature to 100 million degrees at the worst case. This
temperature will be enough to initiate thermonuclear reactions in ambient hydrogen,
which can lead to self-supporting reaction of combustion of the hydrogen ocean of
Jupiter and then to explosion of the planet with fatal consequences to the human
civilisation. That is quite a chain of circumstances, but it only has to happen once to
get our (brief) attention!
Worp has said his thoughts in the popular radio show “From Coast to Coast”,
however they have not been heard by us, and Galileo has already impacted Jupiter,
and we are still here! In the Universe observed by us the explosion has not occurred
(to this question we will still return). However after several months appeared article of
Richard C. Hoagland. Did NASA Accidentally “Nuke” Jupiter?
http://www.enterprisemission.com/NukingJupiter.html In it was retold thought of
Worp, and then was paid attention that a month later after splashing down, on the
surface of Jupiter there was a strange stain in equatorial area.
(http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/jupiter_dark_spot_031023.html)
There are different opinions on the nature of this stain – a shade from the
satellite, the usual whirlwind, an error of supervision, however Hoagland has put
forward the assumption, that this stain has resulted from the nuclear explosion of
Galileo as it too has been impacted in the equatorial area. However the size of the stain
was approximately equal to the size of the Earth, and it has held for several days (and
reminded one of stains from the impact of comet Schumacher-Levi in July 1994) –
and it was far more extensive in area, than the stain from nuclear explosion in several
tens kilotons maximum could achieve. Such a stain could be formed, we note, if some
quantity of hydrogen too would enter the reaction, but then the process damp out (after
achieving a gigaton level triggered explosion). The time delay of one month from the
splashing down of Galileo before occurrence of stain Hoagland explains by slow
immersion of plutonium tablets into the hydrogen ocean, and then a slow raising of a
sphere of the heated gas after explosion. This does not appear consistent with the
behavior of matter under such circumstances, and may be neglected as an explanation.
In the report of NASA on safety of Cassini the risk of igniton of Saturn is not
discussed at all, but it is told that under no circumstances nuclear tablets cannot lead to
nuclear explosion. There it is not mentioned that on board Cassini is contained at least
three critical weights of plutonium. (Spacecraft Power for Cassini
http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/spacecraft/safety/power.pdf) From the report you could get
an impression, that this is a safe isotope of plutonium (mostly Pu-238, a non-weapons-
grade isotope) is contained on Cassini, on the site we see that this isotope is not military-
oriented. Really, plutonium-238 – was never used for creation of nuclear weapons, and
for practical engineering reasons—it is strongly self-heating, to the point of red-hotness,
and for cost and other reasons as well. However all this does not mean, that it cannot blow
up, and, according to the government of the United States, (Updated Critical Mass
Estimates for Plutonium-238 http://www.osti.gov/bridge/purl.cover.jsp? purl =/6009-
YSy5TG/native/) it possesses a critical mass. (Moreover, it is a high-power source of
neutrons according to some information, and does not demand a neutron fuse, unlike
plutonium-239. http://www.ricin.com/nuke/bg/bomb.html) Here we see a certain non-
candor, which is not obvious if one has not undertaken a special search of sources. No
conspiracy theory is needed to understand that NASA, enduring antinuclear protests
before launch of every atom-powered space probe, might not wish to volunteer facts
which its’ political enemies would jump on without hesitation. Or perhaps worse,
NASA simply does not know everything the Department of Energy knows, being
reliant upon them for obtaining both the plutonium 238 and the battery design. NASA
or some subcomponents thereof at times are known to take scornful approach to safety
problems that the history with the Shuttle demonstrates. Their failures were not casual
– each time there were people who cautioned about them – but they were ignored.
In 2008 of NASA has refused splashing down Cassini and has prolonged its
mission for two years. The further destiny of mission depends on financing and a
technical condition of the vehicle.
Such is the problem’s history. From here we see, that it consists of four
independent questions:
Having multiplied probabilities of all four events, we can estimate the risk of
global catastrophe connected with Cassini.
In this article we will collect arguments only in favor of the worst succession
of events, acting in a role, so to say, as devil’s advocate and we will extend an
invitation and plea to more competent researchers to refute this worst case!
One of the objections of the theory about explosion of fuel cells is that for
plutonium explosion is required implosion of very exact spherical compression of a
sphere of plutonium. I will notice, that sphericity of compression is guaranteed by
uniformity of a high pressure in the bowels of Saturn. (in a bomb, the outside
environment is unpressurized, and all is dependent on the transient explosive
configuration. If the pressure comes from an steady state (on that level) isotropic
environment, it is not the same case!) Besides spherical implosion, there are also to
consider cylindrical compression (that is uniform compression of the cylinder on each
side) and even plane implosion (as a hammer on an anvil) – they are not suitable for
military nuclear bombs as being ineffective, but something more simple can be
interesting to nuclear terrorists as technically more achievable). They too lead to
nuclear explosion, but of smaller force. Non-uniformity of implosion at compression
of fuel tablets can be compensated for by duration of force of external pressure. In
addition, we do not know what yield should be an explosion sufficient to initiate
thermonuclear reaction. (In the fuel tablets collects helium because of the alpha decay
of plutonium so there might be something to light up.) I will notice, that fast
compression of nuclear tablets is probable when external pressure will exceed
structural limit and will suddenly crumple their external shell. Nuclear fuel capsules
should be very heavy, very refractory and very strong to achieve any penetration of the
ocean of the metallic hydrogen that is in Saturn.
And they are made such– so that they would not break in event of possible
combustion of Cassini in atmosphere of the Earth. And for the same reason they
should survive entry into the atmosphere of Saturn. To achieve penetration, even at the
local terminal velocity, to the deep interior, however, may be something else. The
most likely scenario is simple melting (at near solar temperatures) and safe dispersal.
From resulted above logic chain it is clear that certain basic elements to start
a nuclear reaction were present on Galileo and are present on Cassini in the theoretical
case of survival to depths of interest. Moreover, Cassini has twice the fuel cells than
Galileo did. However there are many factors which can prevent the beginning of a
rough chain nuclear reaction, for example, slow melting of elements in process of their
immersion, retraction of nuclear tablets one from another on significant distances etc.
Besides, tablets are surrounded by layers of graphite and iridium, which should
interfere with chain reaction (however these can melt down in the process of
immersion into the hot depths of the planet). On the other hand, we do not know yet
what is actually is in the bowels of giant planets and which conditions are necessary
for initialization to self-supporting thermonuclear reaction in them.
My opinion consists that slow melting and dissolving away of tablets most
likely took place. And I would give 1 chance on 10 000, that a nuclear explosion took
place. Probably this is generous.
Briefly, the possible reasons enabling the explosion of giant planets are:
Inside the giant planets is thermonuclear fuel under high pressure and at high density.
This density for certain substances is above the density of these substances on Earth.
The more opaque is the burning environment, the greater are the chances for the
reaction to spread in it, as well as less resultant dispersion of the fuel; in the bowels of
the giant planets there are many impurities and can be expected to lower transparency.
Gravitational differentiation and chemical reactions can lead to the self-segregation of
areas within the planet that are more suitable to run the reaction in its delicate initial
stages. These may be compared to the primer charge on a larger charge of cheaper,
less sensitive chemical explosive.
The stronger will be the explosion of such a thermonuclear ‘blasting cap’ warhead the
greater will be amount of the initial field of burning, and the more likely that the
response would be self-sustaining, as the energy loss will be smaller and the number
of reaction substances and reaction times would be greater. It can be assumed that if a
sufficiently powerful fuse the reaction will became self-sustaining in the primer charge
and then spread to the limits of the slightly enriched area in the planet.
3) The hydrogen density in the upper layers of the photosphere of the Sun is
insignificant, and it would be much easier to ignite hydrogen at Earth oceans if it in
general is possible.
In the updated version, Bolonkin replies-- Answer: The hydrogen density
is enough known. The Sun has gigantic advantage – that is PLASMA. Plasma of
sufficient density reflects or blocks radiation—it has opacity. That means: no
radiation losses in detonation. It is very important for heating. The AB Criterion in
this paper is received for PLASMA. Other planets of Solar system have MOLECULAR
atmospheres which passes radiation. No sufficient heating – no detonation! The water
has higher density, but water passes the high radiation (for example γ-radiation) and
contains a lot of oxygen (89%), which may be bad for the thermonuclear reaction.
This problem needs more research.
Let's add that energy release of Jupiter exceeds its consumption of energy
from the Sun that is connected or with its proceeding compression, or with presence of
very weak nuclear reactions in it as assume some theories. In the latter case (if true,
which we realize it may not be) it means the presence in Jupiter of areas in which
these reactions are capable to proceed, at least slowly.
p+p=D+b++n
What for us it is important from the above citation? First, that though
hydrogen also is not suitable for fast reactions, but carbon, oxygen and neon which
are present at Jupiter (though and in insignificant quantities) – but in not less, than
nuclei of light elements are in the Sun. Moreover, for the account of presence of a firm
core, clouds etc., these light elements can be present at Jupiter even in more
considerable quantities, than in the Sun because on it comets and other bodies hit and
then rained down in the interior during its formation. And, besides, for the account of
gravitational differentiation and other processes there should be layers where
concentration of these elements is higher. (Besides, Neptune and Uranus have even
more light elements, especially oxygen, and too can be object of purposeful
explosions.)
Secondly, from Shklovsky's citation follows, that the Sun nevertheless can
blow up, if it to heat up to 100 million degrees. It is interesting to us, whether it is
possible to initiate such an staged chain reaction explosion, having heated a certain
volume of a planet or a star and then with this preheating from the first explosion, to
trigger a larger explosion to heat up the next volumes so that chain reaction goes
runaway.
In the Sun fusion occurs slowly, and processes are in equilibrium. If in any
place nuclear reactions were accelerated, the temperature and pressure in it will grow,
and for the account of hydrostatic equilibrium this area has extended, thus, having led
to a temperature and speed of reaction decrease. (see Shklovsky. Stars: Their Birth,
Life & Death.) However it is true, only if the speed of distribution of reaction is less
than the speed of sound in that environment. In bowels of stars this speed of a sound is
rather high for the account of huge pressure and temperatures (up to 10,000 km/s) that
does make difficult occurrence of explosive reactions. In bowels of planets speed of a
sound has an order 10 km/s. (It is easier).
So the bowels of giant planet will not change dynamically in order to prevent
chain fusion reaction as it happens in stars.
Its basis is threefold helium reaction 3He4 = С12. the formula describing it
energy relise, is that:
E = p 2 X 3T 30
Note that the substance inside the giant planets is also degenerate, as the
substance of white dwarfs, namely, a degenerate electron gas in the metallic hydrogen.
It is not known to what extent this similarity increases the likelihood of a self-
sustaining fusion reaction, as is likely, with a sharp heat the state of hydrogen is
destroyed.
On the one hand, speed of the progress of the threefold helium reaction
depends on the 30th power of temperatures (Shklovsky). On the other hand, the more
the volume of fuel mix that has initially entered reaction, the more reaction time will
be sustained. Thus volume growth will affect the balance between radiating area and
area on which its energy dissipates which will result in much bigger heating of
ambient areas, and which creates a possibility for self-supporting reactions.
For example, at explosion of a nuclear bomb in the air, the size of a bomb is
several meters, and the transparency distance on which goes its radiation is kilometers,
and owing to it energy of explosion is very dispersed evenly over distance. At
explosion of a bomb of the sizes of ten meters to the environment, whose transparency
conditions areonly a few meters may be sufficient for starting chain reactions (for
example, hydrates of methane on the Earth with high deuterium concentration). All the
energy of the bomb passes on a volume of substance, much smaller than it. In such a
circumstance, successful ignition is far more likely
Before test of the first nuclear bomb in the USA was made the report LA-602
http://www.sciencemadness.org/lanl1_a/lib-www/la-pubs/00329010.pdf in which
were considered risks that A-bomb explosion would create chain reaction of synthesis
of nitrogen in earth atmosphere. (Besides, the bomb has been raised highly above
ground as there were concerns about risk of that earth crust will be involved in decay
or synthesis reaction). Conclusions that risks of starting chain reaction in the earth
atmosphere are insignificant have been drawn as a result
The basic proof of safety of the first nuclear explosion in report LA-602 was
that at synthesis of nuclei of nitrogen huge power losses will occur by radiation of all
kinds, and consequently how the explosion reference temperature was great, reaction
will inevitably fade out.
Let's pay attention to the following logic paradox arising in discussions about
explosion of planets of giants – it is asserted, that self-supporting reaction in them is
impossible, as the hot area will immediately extend and will dissipate. If this area
extends in a planet the average density of substance will be equal in this area to
average density of substance in a planet, and in this case it is impossible to tell, that
the area has dissipated (unlike a case of explosion of a nuclear bomb in atmosphere
where the density of a material of a bomb is much more than atmospheric density and
there is a possibility to dissipate). Thus, if to tell, that the border of extending area will
be denser, and interiors – emptier-- it will be similar to a shock wave front.
If so, then the heated area will dissipate only at the limits of Jupiter –and it
will be the explosion of Jupiter!
However the given Compton argument does not work in relation to less
transparent environments, moreover, it prompts, that the most dense and opaque
substances as firm materials of a mantle of planets of earth type are should be the most
dangerous prey to a potential explosion! These materials should contain enough of
hydrogen, helium, oxygen and carbon that in them fast thermonuclear reactions could
proceed. To these requirements, apparently, well suited is the sea-bottom of the
Earth-- rich with fossils, in particular with hydrates of methane which contain H, O, C,
and it is a lot of the impurities making them opaque to light radiation and for neutrons.
(And also the deposits of natural gas rich with an impurity of helium.) The sea-bottom
is under sufficient pressure to exclude the fast retraction (dispersion) of atoms
undergoing fusion «as would occur in vacuum».
Opacity of the metallic hydrogen ocean of Jupiter and other planets of giants
depends on concentration of impurities, and it is impossible to exclude, that on any
depth this concentration is great enough.
Besides, the important feature of Jupiter is that, unlike the Sun, on it was
saved large quantities of highly combustable isotopes, first of all deuterium (and also
lithium 6 and 7). Besides, there at significant amounts (unlike the Earth) of helium-3
which is considered as perspective nuclear fuel for the future earthen thermonuclear
power stations, and there is a project proposed for its extraction on a giant planet,
namely, on Uranus where the gravity is minimum. In the Uranian atmosphere the
probe which will float and filter helium, purifying helium-3, and then from it a rocket
to the Earth will launch with its’ rich prize. Bryan Palaszewski. "Atmospheric Mining
in the Outer Solar System. http://gltrs.grc.nasa.gov/reports/2006/TM-2006-214122.pdf
this project creates risks of nuclear explosion as such ship will demand for itself
nuclear power installation, and, by definition, will be filled by nuclear fuel in the form
of helium-3.
I will remind, that lithium6 deuteride is the basic fuel of modern hydrogen
bombs. It is possible to assume, that in some areas, thanks to the mass differentiation
of hydrogen, the quantity of deuterium in Jupiter will be raised (though this would
contradict data about a strong convection in its atmosphere). But on an ocean of
metallic hydrogen if there is no strong convection, it is possible. It is possible to
assume also, as itself natural lithium deuteride (in the form of areas of the raised
concentration) is formed on Jupiter in certain unique conditions – also as on the Earth
sometimes there are gold nuggets.
Also as well as on the Earth not just any small nuclear explosion can lead to
the kind of uncontrollable nuclear reaction we fear. Similarly, the future explosion of
Cassini will not necessarily result in explosion of Saturn even if explosion of Saturn
basically is possible with a sufficient detonator. All depends on the igniter and the
place to be ignited.
Let's notice, that the problem of explosion of celestial bodies will arise and at
a hypothetical future dicersion of comets menacing to the Earth and asteroids by
means of nuclear explosions. As for such deviation some large bodies will be required
explosions of gigaton scales, chances of fusion detonations of debris of comets will
inevitably increase. (The assumption here, is that rare patches of enriched burnable
isotopes may exist in some comets)
And as such explosions, probably, will be near to the Earth (if to intercept
comets at the last minute) consequences may be rather pitiable. Besides, radiation
from the explosion of a nuclear interceptor rocket too will drop out to the Earth.
Moreover, if true, that deuterium develop from hydrogen under the influence
of cosmic rays, the ancient surface of ice moon would be extremely rich with
deuterium - because there is no mixing. For example, the surface of Enceladus, which
Cassini regularly flies by and could smash into it. However, if the explosion will cover
only the surface of Enceladus, rather than its volume, the number of the resulting
radioactive elements may not be enough to harm the Earth, although the total
destruction of the satellite and its residual spraying throughout the solar system (with
subsequent «nuclear» winter on Earth) is very likely. As well as dispersion of high-
speed shrapnel as a result of dissymmetrical explosion that could also fall to Earth.
Hypothetically, you can imagine the two-stage (or even three) thermonuclear
detonation of celestial body. Initially, explode very small (a few hundred meters in
size) area with very high concentrations of deuterium - say, a glacier. Then it ignites
surrounding area with less deuterium, which requires for its combustion the starter of
greater force. (the original area of high concentration serves as this primer charge).
Then, the reaction becomes the triple helium reaction, which covers a considerable
amount of the planet.
Explosion consequences
Let's assume that explosion of Jupiter (or Saturn – but for simplicity we will
consider Jupiter alone) has occurred. What will be negative consequences of this event
for the Earth?
Here there are two versions of events – 1 – explosion occurs at the moment
in time (now) when people live only on the Earth. 2. Explosion occurs in 100 or more
years when the mankind has extended over all the solar system. In the second case
explosion is much more probable, but its’ consequences could be not as deadly to
mankind as a species.
If only one thousand part of substance of Jupiter takes part in reaction, and
the energy equal of one thousandth part weight of that substance which has entered the
reaction it will be equivalent to a mass converted to energy of 10 ** 18 tons. Thus
every second in bowels of the Sun 4*10 ** 6 tons of substance pass in energy. From
here follows, that luminosity of Jupiter approximately over an hour (rough time of
dispersion and atmosphere—now plasma ball-- cooling) becomes ~100 million times
more than the present luminosity of the Sun. On account of the 5 AU (average)
distance from the Earth, this energy will decrease approximately by 25 times, but in
any case, within an hour the radiation flux will exceed solar by a million times. There
is no need to press in exact calculations, to tell, that it will result in failure of the
atmosphere of the Earth and destruction of all its’ biosphere.
Possibly, significant layer of rocky rocks will be broken (from tens of metres
to kilometres by thickness). On the other hand, as flash will be short-term the
underside of the Earth and other planets will suffer considerably smaller damage, and
theoretically underground bases, deep in several kilometres in depth on Earth’s moon,
could go through this flash. (It also means, in case of the future space conflict, that the
party which will dispose such bases, can be interested in explosion of Jupiter on
purpose to clear Solar system of the opponent.)
The blast wave from the heated hydrogen will reach the Earth in some days
or weeks, but nothing will be there left to destroy, and force of its effect will be less,
than from the flash.
If explosion will be less energetic (or as it was offered in one place, the Earth
will be obscured from it by the Sun during this moment i.e. at the anti-jovian point)
radioactive fall-out from explosion will be the factor that threatens the Earth.
The viewable size of the Earth from Jupiter is approximately 1 to 100 000,
and the share of the Earth in its firmament– (subtended angle of arc) 1 to 10 billionth
of sky area. It is possible to assume, that the Earth will receive not a smaller share of
the substances dumped by Jupiter (actually, more, for the account of gravitational
acquisition, which sweeps out a far greater area than the planet’s physical sphere
does). If it dumps 1/10 the proportional weight to the Earth there will drop out 10 **
13 tons of jovian fallout (that is 10 000 cubic km at water densities).
In case of explosion of the supernova the isotope nickel-56 with the decay
period of 6 is transformed into an isotope cobalt-56 with the decay period of 77 days.
At speed of explosion of a shell of Jupiter about 1000 km/s (about corresponding to
speed of atoms of substance at temperatures of thermonuclear combustion) decay
products will reach the Earth within 8 days. Even if only one ten-thousand part will
consist of radioactive elements, it all the same will be 10 ** 9 tons, or 2 tons per
square kilometre of an earth surface, that is 50 000 mol substances of nickel or 10 **
29 atoms which will give 10 ** 17 decays (bequerels) on each square meter per
second, that, is roughly speaking, there will correspond to one million roentgens in a
second, that is one thousand lethal doses a second. Even if radiation will be a billion
times less then one lethal dose will take 10 days.
Further, in case of destruction of Jupiter the Solar system will be filled with
its remnants and the remnants of its satellites, many of which will get into the inner
solar system and will result in intensive meteoritic bombardment of the Earth.
Gravitational stability of the solar system also may suffer—The Sun is 99.86 percent
of the mass of the Solar System, and Jupiter is .1 percent. Close flybys of large masses
may change orbital geometries to some small extent.
At last, the remnants of Jupiter can generate the new "protoplanetary" disk
which part (also it will be temporary) in internal areas of Solar system and will
disseminate the Sunlight that will result in «nuclear winter» on the Earth. The optical
thickness of the disk will be especially great in an ecliptic plane so the Earth can
plunge into full darkness. I will remind the reader, that insignificant weight tails of
comets are very brightly visible in the sky, that a lot of mass is not required (given the
large area) for darkening the Sun over a square meter. And if this exercise is repeated
over the entire perceived disk area of the Sun as seen from Earth—we are in trouble in
any case.
Only when the mankind will be settled far beyond inner Solar system, for
example, in Kuiper belt, or Oort Cloud, only then will an explosion of Jupiter not
represent for it danger of full extinction.
You can also argue that high concentrations of deuterium would be only deep
inside the giant planets, which is difficult to penetrate for the probe due to high
pressure and temperature. But here are possible options. For example, Earth has a
solid core of iron at a temperature of about 6000 degrees - that is possible to retain a
firm shell probe by the fact that at high-pressure (3 million bars at the Earth’s core)
substance remains solid at high temperatures.
In addition, high temperatures should not penetrate into the probe, which
imposes restrictions on the speed of immersion / size of the probe. Finally, the
envelope must withstand pressure and not pass it on to the center.
And to reach these depths is not difficult, because the planet is liquid. (It
should be noted that the temperature at depth in the giant planets is tens of thousands
of degrees. But the pressure aids nuclear reactions.
At 10,000 kilometers below Jupiter's cloud top liquid hydrogen reaches a
pressure of 1,000,000 bar with a temperature of 6,000° K. At this state hydrogen
changes into a phase of liquid metallic hydrogen. In this state, the hydrogen atoms
break down yeilding ionized protons and electrons similar to the Sun's
interiorhttp://www.solarviews.com/eng/jupiter.htm
Other sources hold that it takes 4 million bar to transition to the metallic
hydrogen phase. For comparison, the pressure at the core of the Earth is 3 million bar.
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq4-4.htm gives the radiation implosion
pressure in the 1952 Mike deuterium H-bomb as 73 megabars.)
In the future, when the development of nanotechnology will allow quick and
cheap way to master space, the question of finding the layers with high concentrations
of deuterium and the creation of huge explosive devices to initiate the explosion will
greatly simplified. In fact, hostile organizations may launch an invisible nanorobots
into depths of a giant planet that will create a fuel source for a cosmic explosion in
several years or even less.
Some time back E.M.Drobyshevsky has made waves over all the Internet
with the article «About prority of space missions» (Danger of explosion Callisto and
priority of space missions www.ioffe.ru/journals/jtf/1999/09/p10-14.pdf) where he
asserts, that the satellite of Jupiter Callisto can blow up because of chemical
combustion reaction in ionised ice (caused by cosmic radiation and chemical
radiolysis over time). We will admit, for this argument, that it so. Then spontaneous
explosion of Callisto in the next 100 years has chances less, than 1 to 10 million,
recognising that Callisto has existed whole not less than one billion years. On the other
hand, an expedition to the satellite going about its’ business with deep drilling and
other (explosive?) seismic sounding, can go awry and lead to explosion of Callisto
even such a minor vehicle falling on a surface explosion through a navigational
mishap or implosion of plutonium batteries through collision at cosmic velocities
without atmospheric slowdown). I think, that it will be fair to assume, that expedition
on Callisto has not less than 1 chance from 1000 that it will result in accident (if such
an accident is at all possible). In other words, the very probing expedition increases
the chances of an accident by ten thousand times. Thus, priority of space missions
should consist in: Not to direct any missions to Callisto! A prospective investigator
might say, "It is necessary to investigate, whether can Callisto blow up. Its ices are
how much strongly saturated by electrolysis products, we do not know, and no one can
tell us. It is necessary to voyage to Callisto, to land there there, to drill, search," - the
scientist might say. http://www.uralweb.ru/news/n325810.html
Now there were projects of deeply drilling of the mantle by means of refractory probes
with a radiation heat source or reactor (Aranovich). (A ‘hot drop’) Besides risks of
creation of a supervolcano, such probes create also risk of nuclear explosions at
sudden implosion under massive pressure of a shell of a probe and sharp compression
of radioactive substance if it supports fission. Such explosion could become the
initiator for awakening or strengthening of the activity of a hypothetical natural
uranium reactor. Consider
a paper that is not comforting in this context
http://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0308058:
By
http://arxiv.org/ftp/physics/papers/0308/0308058.pdf
We know for certain of natural uranium reactors whose traces are found in
the uranium mine in Gabon where reaction went hundred thousand years in deposits of
the uranium ore washed by flows of underground waters (as natural moderator in early
times when U-235 was more abundant).
http://www.rol.ru/news/misc/news/02/10/16_078.htm But there they write, that at the
moment such reactors cannot work, as uranium-235 has broken up to level of
concentration below 3 percent. (Currently 0.7 percent) Nevertheless, there is a thought
about starting of nuclear explosion of the Earth for the account of explosion of a
thermonuclear bomb in uranium mines. Though such explosion cannot capture all
planet, the effect can be catastrophic for the account of huge allocation of radiation
rich fallout. This is however probably impossible, barring a deliberate attempt to use
huge amounts of fusion isotopes to trigger such uranium concentrations.
When I studied physics in school, my friend has told me that if to collect all
nuclear charges in the Marianas trench and to detonate them, an uncontrollable chain
reaction will begin, the Earth will burn three days and destroy everything. The
statement that it will burn three days, obviously, is false as there are no conditions for
a stable combustion, (a runaway explosion is rapid or nonexistent) and we may
dismiss this case as just another ignorant rumor. This does not however mean that a
sufficiently massive thermonuclear charge on the ocean floor near, say, a spreading
ridge might not open a volcanic vent to a mantle plume that Mankind might well wish
had stayed closed. This might cause a new Iceland sized island, but probably would
not cause mass extinctions.
At the core of the Sun has already begun to shape the future white
dwarf, into which the Sun will turn: the density of matter in the core is 150 tons per
cubic meter and the concentration of helium 4 is sufficiently high, and temperature is
15 million degrees. Hypothetically it can be assumed that such conditions is sufficient
for detonation of helium (but not for its slow burning) in the triple helium reaction.
However, to deliver at the center of the Sun a «blasting cap» is at least problematic.
But again there are possibilities to a malevolent future
scientist/dictator/terrorist/ignorant probing fool—Advanced matter substances could
penetrate deeply inside the sun --objects inaccessible now for Earth technologies:
neutrinos, dark matter, microscopic black holes. An example is A.A. Bolonkin’s ‘AB-
Matter’.
Every risk is worth considering, because we don’t know how small it is until
we calculate it.
I estimate that probability of theoretical possibility of ignition of giant planet
is around 1 per cent. (Hopefully the 99% chance is correct—that such a thing is
impossibility.)
And I estimate that chances of intended or occasional detonation of any
planet is also 1 per cent for next several hundreds years.
So, the chances of human extinction from given risk is around ~ 1 to 10 000
—if these calculations are correct. But facts are facts. If it is possible, it can happen. If
impossible it cannot. Yet only a fool does not investigate if he might be in danger.
There was a famous cartoon around the time of the fall of the USA’s Skylab space
station in 1979: A computer tells a scientist, “Look, either it hits you or it doesn’t.
The odds are 50-50.” Until we investigate, the joke is on us!
You may try to dream about the opportunity to influence the flare on
the sun, which are magnetic in nature. (However, they have the upper limit of energy
equal to the total energy of magnetic field of the Sun - see A. Dar.)
As the resulting breakup dust will be in the form of a disk around the sun, it
will change the orientation of solar luminosity - more light will scatter to the side of
the disc, and less along the edge of the disk. Therefore, the planet in the ecliptic plane
will receive much less radiation, even taking into account the balance between
absorbed and radiated dust emission. This might lead to an ice age punctuated by
meteoric fireballs day and night for ages to come.
Natural H-bomb
In 1989, Serge J.D. D'Alessio and Archie A. Harms suggested that some of the
deuterium in a comet entering the Earth's atmosphere may have undergone a nuclear
fusion reaction,[33] leaving a distinctive signature in the form of carbon-14. They
concluded that any release of nuclear energy must have been almost negligible.
Independently, in 1990, César Sirvent proposed that a deuterium comet, i.e., a comet
with an anomalous high concentration of deuterium in its composition, could have
exploded as a natural hydrogen bomb, generating most of the energy released. The
sequence would be first a mechanical or kinetic explosion, triggering a thermonuclear
reaction. These proposals are inconsistent with knowledge both of the composition of
comets and of the temperature and pressure conditions necessary for initiating a
nuclear fusion reaction.[34] Studies have found the concentration of radioactive
isotopes in the blast region to be inconsistent with those expected following a nuclear
explosion, fusion or otherwise.[18]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
However, this paper (as is known) is written in the spirit of the worst case, so let us
consider—suppose there was such a comet and it was (also!) on a collision course for
Earth—and intercepted (say) at the distance of Earth’s Moon. The warhead we send
to deflect it hits the enriched deuterium patch (a third improbability!) Now—
The literature:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/24541542/Artificial-Explosion-of-Sun-AB-
Criterion-for-Solar-Detonation
Jacco van der Worp. Could NASA Use Galileo to Create a Jovian Nagasaki?
YOWUSA.COM, 07-September-03 http://yowusa.com/space/2003/space-
2003-09a/1.shtml
Forum:
Nuclear ignition of gas giant atmospheres
http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php? t=3156
In the novel « colder than ice» floodlight explosion for the account of a
collapse of hydrogen in the metal form is discussed. http://fantlab.ru/work40400
**
With first such prevention in the Nobel lecture in 1922 F.Aston – the
inventor mass спектрографа, experimentally opened the first isotopes and relativistic
defect of weight in an atomic nucleus has acted. Then he has stated for the first time
idea of thermonuclear reaction of transformation of hydrogen in helium, and also fears
concerning that this artificial reaction can be globalized in earth hydrosphere and to
become "bickford fuse" of space accident of a birth on a place of the former Earth of a
short-lived new star. Since then a possibility of transformation of physical laboratory
in epicentre of space accident that more it is less briskly discussed to this day …
http://www.radonezh.ru/analytic/articles/? ID=2763
Debunk:
Project Lucifer: Will Cassini Turn Saturn into a Second Sun? (Part 1)
http://www.universetoday.com/2008/07/24/project-lucifer-will-cassini-turn-
saturn-into-a-second-sun-part-1/
http://www.lhcdefense.org/pdf/SANCHO%20v.%20DOE%20-
%20%20September,%202008%20-%20Affidavit%20of%20WLW
%20in%20Support%20of%20Reply%20Memorandum%20%20-
%201.pdf
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq4-4.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deuterium