Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Vietnam-United States Strategic Partnership Carlyle A. Thayer February 13, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] Q1WhywouldtheUnitedStateswanttopushtherelationshipwithVietnamtoa higherlevelandestablishaStrategicPartnershipwithVietnamthisyear? ANSWER:Itisuncleartomewhofirstraisedtheissueofstrategicpartnership,the US or Vietnam. The term strategic partnership is certainly one I associate with Vietnam. But it was also a term used in the Quadrennial Defense Review where Vietnamwasidentifiedasapotentialstrategicpartner. MysurmiseisthatU.S.Vietnamrelationshavebeendevelopingquitewell.Secretary HillaryClintonisalreadyonrecordofwantingtotaketherelationshiptothenext level. If the U.S. has proposed a strategic partnership is would mean developing bilateralrelationsindepthscience,technology,trade(TPP)etc.Ofcoursedefense relationsarealsoincluded. Vietnam maintains a hierarchy of strategic partnerships (comprehensive strategic partnership etc.). U.S.Vietnam relations have developed breadth so the bilateral relationship would certainly qualify for a strategic partnership. So both sides are usingsimilarterms. Why 2012? Vietnam and the United States agreed to exchange Defense Ministers everythreeyears.ItistheturnoftheUStosenditsDefenseSecretarytoVietnam this year. Since a strategic partnership includes defence and security relations this visitwouldprovidetheopportunitytoreachagreement. SecretaryClintonispushingsmartdiplomacyandpriorityintheAsiaPacific.Sheand KurtCampbellwillleavetheObamaAdministration.Theymaywanttoachievesome tangiblesuccessinAsiaPacificbeforetheleavingoffice. Q2 And also, do you think that this Strategic Partnership between the US and VietnamisgoingtobeestablishedbeforethepresidentialelectionsinNovemberthis year?Andwhatarethedisadvantagesaswellasadvantagesifthishappen? ANSWER: It is my opinion that a formal declaration of strategic partnership will depend on how Vietnam responds to US criticism regarding human rights and religiousfreedom.ThiswasdiscussedbyCampbellinhisrecentvisit.Itshouldalso featurewhenVietnamsdeputyprimeministervisitsWashington.Withoutapositive responseIcannotseeahighlevelvisittakingplacethisyear.

2 AmericaholdsitselectionsinNovemberandthenewpresidentdoesnottakeoffice until January. This means that President Obama will be in office for the round of ASEAN and related summits later this year. This could provide the opportunity for theUnitedStatesandVietnamtoannouncetheirstrategicpartnership. IftheUSandVietnamdonotagreeonastrategicpartnershipbeforeNovember,and Obama isreelected,thenegotiations willpickupafter anewSecretary of Stateis appointedandKurtCampbellsvacancyisfilled. IfnoagreementonastrategicpartnershipisreachedbeforeNovember,andanew personbecomespresident,itwillmeanaconsiderabledelayifnotpostponementof theUSVietnamstrategicpartnership.AnynewRepublicanAdministrationwilltake monthstoreviewpolicyandgetitsappointeesapprovedbyCongress.Therewould betimeforopponentsofastrategicpartnershiptomobilizeagainstit. Q3 And what should Vietnam do about this? And how should the Vietnam side decide? ANSWER:Itismyunderstandingthathumanrightsremaintheprimeobstacletoa strategicpartnership.IthinktheUSwouldlikeitlistedasaseparatechapterinan agreement and Vietnam would like human right to be included under the general headingpoliticalrelationsorwordstothateffect. The ball is in Vietnams court. Over thirty persons have been imprisoned for peacefullyexpressingtheirviews.ThishastakenplacedespiteUSwarningsthiswill harmbilateralrelations.TheUSdoesnotbluffonsuchmatters,althoughitmaywell settle for some progress rather than the release of all persons the US considers prisonersofconscience.Vietnamcouldtakethepoliticaldecisiontoreleaseafew personsofinteresttotheUnitedStatesGovernment.Thisisonlywindowdressing. Vietnam really needs to take a hard look at its Penal Code and decide to punish actions that threaten state security. Persons who are arrested for trying to overthrowthesocialiststateshouldonlybeconvictedforplanningtouseviolenceor using violence. At the same time, the crime of conducing propaganda against the socialiststateistoovaguetobeacrime.Vietnamcouldturnthismatterovertothe NationalAssemblyandseekforeignadviceonhowtoworditsnationalsecuritylaws andpenalcodewithaviewtoamendingcurrentlegislation.