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iPhone 4 Teardown Report SWKS Scores Big Wins, BRCM Continues Combo Strength
Patrick M. Newton, CFA (303) 291-5345 newtonp@stifel.com
Earlier today iFixit released teardown photos of the iPhone 4, scheduled to be released tomorrow morning, identifying the following component suppliers: Apple, Samsung, Broadcom, TI, Cirrus, ST Micro, Skyworks, and TriQuint. Additionally, we believe parts are supplied by Infineon and Dialog Semiconductor. iPhone 4 Demand? With much hype and overload of both Apple and AT&Ts pre-order websites, we believe pre-orders for the iPhone 4 eclipsed 600,000 units in the first day, with sales likely to easily eclipse 1 million units in the first weekend only limited by supply. We are estimating iPhone 4 shipments of roughly 6.3 million in 3Q10 and 9.1 million in 4Q10 with total iPhone shipments (including the 3G and 3GS) of 12.5 million in 3Q10 and 14 million in 4Q10. The expectations yield 2010 iPhone shipments of nearly 45 million, 15.4 million of which we expect to be iPhone 4. For 2011 we are targeting iPhone 4 sales of about 48.4 million and total iPhone sales of 51.4 million. We believe mix of iPhone 4 units and total volumes will see a much higher adoption rate than prior iterations due to 1) faster proliferation worldwide (88 countries targeted for release by September), 2) iPhone mindshare, and 3) compelling features compared to prior iPhone offerings. Given pre-sales of the iPhone 4 and upgrade inquiries at AT&T, we do believe demand in the U.S. could outstrip supply, with the potential to push international releases out similar to what we saw with the iPad.
Annual PA ASP Decline: Quad-Band EDGE Module ASP: W CDMA Module ASP: 3Q10 3G/3GS Mix iPhone Units 12.51 4Q10 3G/3GS Mix iPhone Units 14.01 35% 4.90 4G Mix 65% 9.11 iPhone Units 11.77 3Q11 3G/3GS Mix iPhone Units 13.54 4Q11 3G/3GS Mix iPhone Units 14.89 2% 0.30 4G Mix 98% 14.59 25.11 44.90 51.41 3% 0.41 4G Mix 97% 13.13 50% 6.26 4G Mix 50% 6.26 iPhone Units 11.21 2Q11 3G/3GS Mix 5% 0.59 4G Mix 95% 11.18 $ $ 1Q11 3G/3GS Mix 4G Mix 15% 85% 1.68 9.53 8% 1.00 1.25
CY09 iPhone Units: CY10 iPhone Units: CY11 iPhone Units: Source: Stifel Nicolaus Estimates
Component Suppliers: SWKS Gains Two PAs, BRCM Well Represented, TQNT Loses a Socket Below is a comparison of the iPhone 3G to the iPhone 4 with bolded sockets representing new design wins relative to prior generations.
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Semiconductors
Supplier
IFX/BRCM PMB2525
Source: Company Reports and Stifel Nicolaus Estimates Bolded Product equal new design Wins
From a component perspective, we believe the largest departure from prior iPhone releases is in the redesign of the front-end, which was left unchanged from the iPhone 3G to 3GS. The redesign includes an additional WCDMA socket, bringing total 3G bands to four compared to three in the 3G and 3GS. Skyworks (SKWS, Buy, $17.40): Skyworks appears to be the largest share winner in the new iPhone, gaining the new WCDMA socket and displacing TriQuint (TQNT, Buy, $6.45) for another win for a total of two new sockets. We estimate SWKS has increased its iPhone dollar content to about $3.50 per iPhone 4 unit compared to prior 3G/3GS content of $1.00 a handset. Based on our above iPhone 4 unit expectations and annual ASP declines of 8%, we believe SWKS will generate roughly $64 million in Apple revenue in 3Q and 4Q 2010, and about $188 million in 2011, or about 15% of our FY11 revenue expectation of $1.2 billion.
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Semiconductors
SWKS Apple Revenue Implications 3Q10 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 6.26 6.26 Dollar Content $ 1.00 $ 3.50 $ 6.26 $ 21.90 4Q10 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 4.90 9.11 Dollar Content $ 0.98 $ 3.43 $ 4.81 $ 31.24 1Q11 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 1.68 9.53 Dollar Content $ 0.96 $ 3.36 $ 1.62 $ 32.03 2Q11 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 0.59 11.18 Dollar Content $ 0.94 $ 3.29 $ 0.55 $ 36.84 3Q11 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 0.41 13.13 Dollar Content $ 0.92 $ 3.23 $ 0.37 $ 42.39 4Q11 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 0.30 14.59 Dollar Content $ 0.90 $ 3.16 $ 0.27 $ 46.17
$ 36.05
$ 33.65
$ 37.39
$ 42.77
$ 46.44
Implicit CY10 Apple Revenue: $ 64.20 Implicit CY11 Apple Revenue: $ 160.25
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Semiconductors
TQNT Revenue Apple Implications 3Q10 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 6.26 6.26 Dollar Content $ 3.75 $ 2.50 $ 23.46 $ 15.64 4Q10 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 4.90 9.11 Dollar Content $ 3.68 $ 2.45 $ 18.03 $ 22.32 1Q11 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 1.68 9.53 Dollar Content $ 3.60 $ 2.40 $ 6.06 $ 22.88 2Q11 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 0.59 11.18 Dollar Content $ 3.53 $ 2.35 $ 2.08 $ 26.31 3Q11 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 0.41 13.13 Dollar Content $ 3.46 $ 2.31 $ 1.40 $ 30.28 4Q11 3G/3GS 4G Dollar 3G/3GS Un4G Units 0.30 14.59 Dollar Content $ 3.39 $ 2.26 $ 1.01 $ 32.98
40.34
28.94
28.39
31.68
CY09 Apple Revenue: $ Implicit CY10 Apple Revenue: $ Implicit CY11 Apple Revenue: $
Semiconductors
iPad), Texas Instruments held onto its touchscreen controller socket (343SO499), and ST Micro landed the 3-axis gyroscope (L3G4200D). Lastly, there is a chip (Apple 338SO86) on the backside of the PCB which we believe is the system power management IC, and is likely Dialog Semiconductor if past supplier relationships are unchanged. CDMA iPhone Thoughts 1Q11 Release Expected Despite 4Q10 Chatter Much has been stated about the potential launch of a CDMA version of the iPhone which would target key geographies including networking in Korea, Japan, and the United States (Verizon and perhaps Sprint). Timing of the release seems to be the key area of debate, with many (including reports from DigiTimes) looking for a CDMA iPhone in 4Q10 in time for Christmas. Conversely, we strongly believe a CDMA version of the iPhone will be available in 1Q11 given checks with 1) RF component vendors, 2) baseband vendors, and 3) our belief exclusivity with AT&T in North America runs through 2010 (with Apple unlikely to release a CDMA version worldwide before leveraging potential with Verizon). We believe production of the CDMA version at Pegatron is likely to begin in 4Q10 in earnest, but do not anticipate commercial availability until 1Q11. Our checks indicate likely component vendors include Qualcomm (baseband), ANADIGICS (ANAD, Buy, $4.56 RF components), Apple (A4 applications processor), and Broadcom (connectivity, likely WLAN/Bluetooth/FM and GPS). All stocks priced intraday 6/23/2010.
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Semiconductors
Supplier Cellular Baseband Radio EDGE PA WCDMA PA WCDMA PA WCDMA PA HSDPA LNA Switch/Filter Connectivity Bluetooth WiFi GPS Media Applications Processor Audio Codec Interface Touch Screen Controller Display Controller Display Interface Motion Sensor Power Management Charger/USB Controller PMIC (System) PMIC (Cellular) PMIC (Display) Memory NAND Wireless NOR/SRAM Firmware Infineon Infineon Skyworks
338S0297
CSR BlueCore6-ROM Marvell W8686R22 IFX/BRCM Hammerhead II (PMB2525) Samsung Wolfson Broadcom National ST Micro Linear NXP Infineon S5L8900B01 WM618OC BCM5974 LM2512 LIS331DL 4088-2 SMP 3i
$20.00-$25.00 ~ $1.00 $2.00-$3.00 $1.00-$2.00 $1.00-$2.00 $2.00-$3.00 $2.00-$2.50 $2.00-$2.50 $2.00-$2.50 $50.00-$70.00 $8.00-$12.00 ~ $1.00
343S0402
338S0459
Samsung K9MCG08U5M (8GB) Intel PF38F1030W0YTQ2 SST 39WF800A Source: Company Reports and Stifel Nicolaus Estimates Bolded Product equal new design Wins
Toshiba Numonyx
TH58NV67D2ELA89 36MY1EE
$20.00-$25.00 $4.00-$6.00
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Semiconductors
LIS331DLH 25DF001
K9LCG08U1M
Dialog (est.) TI
338S0805 CD3240A1
Intersil 97645A1RZ Linear Tech 3442 LTC3442 LG Display SW0627B Source: Company Reports and Stifel Nicolaus Estimates Bolded Product equal new design Wins
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I, Patrick M. Newton, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Patrick M. Newton, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
Rating and Price Target History for: ANADIGICS, Inc. (ANAD) as of 06-22-2010
02/26/10 I:H:NA 06/17/10 B:$5.5
Rating Key B - Buy H - Hold S - Sell I - Initiation D - Dropped UR - Under Review NR - No Rating NA - Not Applicable RS - Rating Suspended
Created by BlueMatrix
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for ANAD go to http://sf.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/Disclosure?ticker=ANAD
Rating and Price Target History for: Broadcom Corporation (BRCM) as of 06-22-2010
10/15/07 B:$48 01/25/08 B:$37 09/19/08 B:$31 10/22/08 B:$26 12/08/08 B:$20 04/21/09 B:$25 07/24/09 B:$32 08/06/09 NR:NA 02/24/10 B:$38 04/28/10 B:$42
Rating Key B - Buy H - Hold S - Sell I - Initiation D - Dropped UR - Under Review NR - No Rating NA - Not Applicable RS - Rating Suspended
Created by BlueMatrix
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for BRCM go to http://sf.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/Disclosure?ticker=BRCM
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Semiconductors
Rating and Price Target History for: RF Micro Devices, Inc. (RFMD) as of 06-22-2010
08/07/09 NR:NA 02/26/10 H:NA
8 6 4
2 0 Q2
Q1
Q2
Q3 2008
Q1
Q2
Q3 2009
Q1
Q2
Q3 2010
Q1
Rating Key B - Buy H - Hold S - Sell I - Initiation D - Dropped UR - Under Review NR - No Rating NA - Not Applicable RS - Rating Suspended
Created by BlueMatrix
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for RFMD go to http://sf.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/Disclosure?ticker=RFMD
Rating and Price Target History for: Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) as of 06-22-2010
07/19/07 B:$11 11/02/07 B:$13 07/02/08 B:$15 12/02/08 B:$12 07/23/09 B:$14 08/07/09 NR:NA 02/26/10 B:$18 04/30/10 B:$21
Rating Key B - Buy H - Hold S - Sell I - Initiation D - Dropped UR - Under Review NR - No Rating NA - Not Applicable RS - Rating Suspended
Created by BlueMatrix
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for SWKS go to http://sf.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/Disclosure?ticker=SWKS
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Semiconductors
Rating and Price Target History for: TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. (TQNT) as of 06-22-2010
02/26/10 I:B:$9 04/29/10 B:$10.5
Rating Key B - Buy H - Hold S - Sell I - Initiation D - Dropped UR - Under Review NR - No Rating NA - Not Applicable RS - Rating Suspended
Created by BlueMatrix
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for TQNT go to http://sf.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/Disclosure?ticker=TQNT Prior to February 24, 2010, a different Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. research analyst provided research coverage of Broadcom Corporation and its securities. Broadcom Corporation's price chart for the period prior to February 24, 2010 reflects the rating and price target history of the former Stifel Nicolaus research analyst for such issuer and its securities. Prior to February 25, 2010, a different Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. research analyst provided research coverage of RF Micro Devices, Inc. and its securities. RF Micro Devices, Inc.'s price chart for the period prior to February 25, 2010 reflects the rating and price target history of the former Stifel Nicolaus research analyst for such issuer and its securities. Prior to February 25, 2010, a different Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. research analyst provided research coverage of Skyworks Solutions, Inc. and its securities. Skyworks Solutions, Inc.'s price chart for the period prior to February 25, 2010 reflects the rating and price target history of the former Stifel Nicolaus research analyst for such issuer and its securities. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. makes a market in the securities of ANADIGICS, Inc., Broadcom Corporation, RF Micro Devices, Inc., Skyworks Solutions, Inc. and TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc.. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc.'s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) Stifel Nicolaus' overall investment banking revenues. Our investment rating system is three tiered, defined as follows: BUY -We expect this stock to outperform the S&P 500 by more than 10% over the next 12 months. For higher-yielding equities such as REITs and Utilities, we expect a total return in excess of 12% over the next 12 months. HOLD -We expect this stock to perform within 10% (plus or minus) of the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. A Hold rating is also used for those higher-yielding securities where we are comfortable with the safety of the dividend, but believe that upside in the share price is limited. SELL -We expect this stock to underperform the S&P 500 by more than 10% over the next 12 months and believe the stock could decline in value. Of the securities we rate, 38% are rated Buy, 58% are rated Hold, and 4% are rated Sell. Within the last 12 months, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. or an affiliate has provided investment banking services for 13%, 10% and 6% of the companies whose shares are rated Buy, Hold and Sell, respectively.
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Semiconductors
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