Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
JP Associates
BUY
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
3QFY12
3QFY11
% chg (yoy)
2QFY12
% chg (qoq)
3,305
2,949
12.1
3,132
5.5
Operating profit
816
846
(3.6)
748
9.1
Net profit
205
233
(11.9)
129
59.3
`86
`99
Investment Period
12 Months
Stock Info
Infrastructure
Sector
18,266
Beta
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
JAIA.BO
Bloomberg Code
JPA@IN
1.8
103/50
2,031,243
2
18,202
5,532
43.8
22.6
19.1
14.4
Abs. (%)
3m
1yr
3yr
7.8
(0.4)
95.6
22.4
1.5
85.2
Sensex
JAL
Outlook and valuation: We have valued JALs cement and construction business
at 6x EV/EBITDA (`62.2/share) and (`31.2/share), respectively. We have valued
its power and real estate businesses on mcap basis (giving 15% holding company
discount), which contributes `66.1/share to our target price. The hotel segment
contributes `0.8/share. Treasury shares (`7.7/share) have been valued at the
current market price, whereas net debt is accounted for on a per share basis in
our valuation at `68.6. We recommend our Buy rating on the stock with a revised
SOTP target price of `99 (`88), implying an upside of 15.8% from current levels.
FY2010
10,355
68.4
989
10.2
4.7
27.9
18.5
13.0
10.2
2.1
3.1
11.2
FY2011
13,832
33.6
1,168
18.1
5.5
27.2
15.6
13.0
10.5
1.9
2.7
10.0
FY2012E
13,763
(0.5)
582
(50.2)
2.7
24.5
31.4
6.1
7.7
1.9
2.8
11.6
FY2013E
16,017
16.4
893
53.5
4.2
24.4
20.5
8.8
8.6
1.7
2.5
10.0
Shailesh Kanani
022-39357800 Ext: 6829
shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842
nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
3QFY12
3QFY11
% chg(yoy)
2QFY12
% chg(qoq)
9MFY12
9MFY11
% chg(yoy)
Net sales
3,305
2,949
12.1
3,132
5.5
9,616
9,234
4.1
Total exp.
2,489
2,102
18.4
2,384
4.4
7,279
6,946
4.8
Op. profit
816
846
(3.6)
748
9.1
2,337
2,288
2.1
OPM (%)
24.7
28.7
(400)bp
23.9
(80)bp
24.3
24.8
(50)bp
Int.
449
338
32.6
405
10.8
1,280
989
29.3
Dep.
202
154
31.1
176
14.8
550
457
20.4
120
3889.1
56
115.0
182
13
1292.8
(0)
367
287
357
(20)
223
28.9
690
1,221
(43.5)
82
124
(34)
94
(12.5)
249
357
(30.3)
205
233
(11.9)
129
59.3
441
864
(49.0)
Non recurring
PBT
Tax
Reported PAT
PAT (%)
6.2
7.9
(170)bp
4.1
210bp
4.6
9.4
Adj. PAT
205
233
(11.9)
129
59.3
441
497
(11.3)
Adj.PAT (%)
6.2
7.9
(170)bp
4.1
210bp
4.6
5.4
(80)bp
1.0
1.1
(11.9)
0.6
59.3
2.1
2.3
(11.3)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
Net Sales
3305
3304
0.0
EBITDA
816.0
700.9
16.4
Interest
448.5
425.1
5.5
Tax
82.4
28.4
190.2
PAT
205.0
69.5
194.9
3QFY2012
3QFY2011
% Chg
9MFY2012
9MFY2011
1,697
Construction
1,242
3
% Chg
1,237
37.2
4,548
3,887
17.0
1,264
(1.7)
4,072
4,272
(4.7)
(23.5)
31
27
13.8
Segment Revenue
Power
Hotel/Hospitality and Golf Course
60
55
10.0
141
129
8.9
Real Estate
308
426
(27.6)
857
1,115
(23.2)
Investment
120
2989.0
182
11
1524.1
12
16
33
(52.5)
59
95
(38.5)
Others
Unallocated
Less: Inter-Segmental Performance
29
72
(59.4)
104
299
(65.2)
3,426
2,953
16.0
9,798
9,246
6.0
170
142
19.4
334
617
(45.8)
Construction
371
272
36.1
1,182
708
67.0
(2)
(1260.0)
16
15
8.0
(0.6)
(91.1)
Real Estate
148
294
(49.8)
420
583
(28.0)
Investment
120
0.0
182
11
1524.1
(0)
(1)
(8)
(3)
Power
Hotel/Hospitality and Golf Course
Others
Excep : Profit on Sale of Shares
513
Total PBIT
816
721
13.2
2,127
2,452
(13.2)
449
338
32.6
1,280
989
29.3
0.0
80
26
211.1
158
95
65.3
287
357
(19.5)
690
1,367
bp chg.
(49.5)
bp chg.
10.0
11.5
(149)
7.4
15.9
(852)
Construction
29.8
21.6
829
29.0
16.6
1,246
(53.5)
3.5
(5,707)
52.4
55.2
(284)
15.3
16.9
(164)
0.4
5.0
(462)
Real Estate
47.9
69.1
(2,119)
49.0
52.3
(327)
Investment
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
(0.5)
(50.7)
(66.9)
(35.4)
538.3
17,219
14,194
21.3
17,219
14,194
21.3
Construction
3,876
3,509
10.5
3,876
3,509
10.5
Power
1,941
1,168
66.2
1,941
1,168
66.2
598
523
14.4
598
523
14.4
Real Estate
3,309
2,281
45.1
3,309
2,281
45.1
Investment
7,042
5,866
20.0
7,042
5,866
20.0
Power
Others
Unallocated
Capital Employed in Segment
Cement & Cement Products
Others
Unallocated
Total
336
255
31.8
336
255
31.8
1,405
2,610
(46.1)
1,405
2,610
(46.1)
35,727
30,406
17.5
35,727
30,406
17.5
Segment-wise performance
Cement division
JALs cement division reported revenue growth of 37.2% yoy to `1,697cr
(`1,237cr), 10.0% higher than our estimate of `1,543cr. Higher-than-expected
performance was due to better realization of `3,994/tonne against our estimate of
`3,250/tonne. Volume for the quarter came in at 4.3mtpa an increase of 13.4%
on yoy basis. The volume has also gone up owing to commissioning of its Balaji
Cement plant at Andhra Pradesh.
Construction division
The construction division continued its poor performance on the revenue front with
a 1.7% yoy decline to `1,242cr and in line with our estimate of `1,264cr.
Divisional EBIT margin witnessed a phenomenal jump of 829bp yoy and came in
at 29.8%. This was on account of revenue booking for last portion of the recently
completed Yamuna Expressway and Karcham Wangtoo projects. Since the past
few quarters, there has been huge volatility in the construction segment in terms of
revenue and EBIT margins.
19.0
1,500
(0.5)
1,000
(1.1)
2.0
12.1
40.0
20.0
-
500
(20.0)
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
3QFY12
60.0
2,000
21.2
2QFY12
80.0
24.7
1QFY12
62.6
25.5
23.1
35.0
21.4
4QFY11
51.8
28.7
3QFY11
60.5
58.4
2,500
29.9
2QFY11
3,000
100.0
27.5
1QFY11
82.6
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
4QFY10
3,500
120.0
3QFY10
140.0
122.1
4,000
2QFY10
4,500
1QFY10
14.0
11.8
12.0
250
7.3
200
7.9
7.3
10.0
7.6
6.2
6.0
4.6
150
100
3.7
3.4
8.0
6.0
4.1
4.0
2.0
50
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
Methodology
% Upside/ (Downside)
` cr
`/share
% to Target Price
Cement
EV/EBITDA (x)
Construction
EV/EBITDA (x)
6x EV/EBITDA
13,234
62.2
62.6
6x EV/EBITDA
6,641
31.2
31.4
Power
Real Estate
Mcap of JPVL
8,089
38.1
38.3
NAV/Mcap
5,956
28.0
28.2
166
0.8
0.8
Hotels
Treasury Stock
Net Debt
Total
1,626
7.7
7.7
(14,567)
(68.6)
(68.9)
21,146
99.4
100.0
Bloomberg Consensus
Variation (%)
FY2012E
2.7
3.8
(27.3)
FY2013E
4.2
4.7
(11.5)
CMP
205
TP
Top-line (` cr)
Rating
245
Adj. P/E
EPS (`)
OB/
FY11
FY12E
FY13E CAGR (%) FY11 FY12E FY13E CAGR (%) FY11 FY12E FY13E Sales(x)
Buy
1,302
1,648
1,853
21.7
25.4
CCCL
18
17 Reduce
2,199
2,258
2,646
19.3 19.2
9.7
2.5
(1.5)
2.4
HCC
30
- Neutral
4,093
3,915
4,633
6.4
1.2
(3.1)
- Neutral
15.2 10.7
9.5
8.1
4.2
7.1
7.7
2.7
0.6
(25.8) 25.8
47.0
4.0
(2.0) 13.9
13.4
14.5
9.3
8.2
5.2
(3.6)
IRB Infra
189
2,438
3,176
3,781
24.5 13.6
14.2
13.1
ITNL
213
235
Accu.
4,049
5,178
6,619
27.9 22.3
22.9
26.0
IVRCL
60
64
Accu.
5,651
5,057
5,758
0.9
5.9
2.0
4.8
(9.6) 10.2
29.8
12.5
4.4
JP Assoc.
86
99
7.6
5.5
2.7
4.2
(12.6) 15.6
31.4
20.5
1,449 1,608
17.2 54.3
63.7
70.9
14.2 26.7
22.7
20.4
3.3
(8.1) 11.7
14.8
13.9
3.8
44.7
17.7
4.3
L&T
77
7.8
9.5
Madhucon
65
Buy
1,816
1,952
2,503
17.4
5.6
4.4
4.7
NCC
62
- Neutral
5,074
4,946
5,790
6.8
6.4
1.4
3.5
(26.1)
9.7
Patel Engg
120
- Neutral
3,476
3,573
3,609
1.9 17.6
14.9
14.8
(8.3)
6.9
8.1
8.1
2.7
Punj Lloyd
63
- Neutral
16.2 (5.4)
3.5
2.9
17.9
21.7
3.6
8.0
9.3
9.2
7.3 18.0
15.5
15.6
2.7
17.3 21.5
24.0
29.1
16.3 10.4
9.4
7.7
2.9
Sadbhav
143
157
Accu.
2,209
2,602
2,585
Simplex In.
224
261
Buy
4,889
5,961
6,732
8.2
Core Const.
Real Estate
Road BOT
Invst. In Subsidiaries
Others
Total
% to TP
% to TP
% to TP
% to TP
% to TP
ABL
104
42
141
58
245
CCCL
17
100
17
32
182
HCC
12
12
37
16
51
IRB Infra
116
64
61
34
ITNL
59
25
152
65
25
10
235
IVRCL
39
60
26
40
64
JP Assoc.
31
31
28
28
40
40
99
1,608
77
L&T
1,276
79
332
21
Madhucon
23
30
52
68
NCC
29
48
14
22
35
61
Patel Engg
55
51
17
16
16
15
19
18
106
Punj Lloyd
71
100
71
Sadbhav
83
53
75
47
157
Simplex In.
261
100
261
FY2009
FY2010
4,274
6,148
10,355
13,832
13,763
16,017
19.4
43.8
68.4
33.6
(0.5)
16.4
Total Expenditure
2,888
4,084
7,465
10,076
10,396
12,108
1,374
2,153
4,290
6,304
6,026
6,916
575
843
1,497
1,500
2,041
2,419
Personnel
255
331
453
596
687
785
Other
683
757
1,225
1,677
1,642
1,988
1,386
2,064
2,891
3,756
3,368
3,909
% chg
33.2
48.9
40.1
29.9
(10.3)
16.1
(% of Net Sales)
32.4
33.6
27.9
27.2
24.5
24.4
203
309
456
608
779
875
EBITDA
EBIT
1,183
1,755
2,435
3,148
2,589
3,034
% chg
34.8
48.4
38.7
29.3
(17.8)
17.2
(% of Net Sales)
27.7
28.5
23.5
22.8
18.8
18.9
Interest
339
504
1,056
1,394
1,728
1,713
Other Income
(% of PBT)
Share of Assoc
Recurring PBT
844
1,251
1,379
1,754
861
1,321
% chg
36.0
48.3
10.2
27.2
(50.9)
53.5
719.5
0.8
PBT (reported)
844
1,251
2,098
1,755
861
1,321
Tax
234
354
390
587
279
429
(% of PBT)
27.7
28.3
18.6
33.4
32.5
32.5
PAT (reported)
610
897
1,708
1,169
582
893
PAT after MI
610
897
1,708
1,169
582
893
Extra. Exp/(Inc.)
ADJ. PAT
610
897
989
1,168
582
893
% chg
46.9
47.1
10.2
18.1
(50.2)
53.5
(% of Net Sales)
14.3
14.6
9.5
8.4
4.2
5.6
5.2
6.4
4.7
5.5
2.7
4.2
2.9
4.2
4.7
5.5
2.7
4.2
46.9
47.1
10.2
18.1
(50.2)
53.5
% chg
FY2008
FY2012E
FY2013E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
234
280
425
425
425
425
Preference Capital
Reserves& Surplus
4,364
6,418
8,076
8,972
9,379
10,088
Shareholders Funds
4,598
6,698
8,501
9,397
9,804
10,514
8,306
13,106
17,909
21,708
23,666
23,942
571
720
956
1,220
1,220
1,220
13,475
20,524
27,366
32,325
34,691
35,676
Gross Block
5,166
8,619
12,847
14,796
18,966
21,311
1,455
1,801
2,228
2,840
3,619
4,494
Net Block
3,712
6,818
10,619
11,957
15,348
16,817
Capital Work-in-Progress
4,219
5,082
3,892
6,353
4,447
3,113
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
11.5
30.4
32.8
26.4
26.4
26.4
3,225
4,465
5,576
6,484
7,428
7,596
Cash
1,815
2,909
3,879
2,463
2,930
2,937
2,222
3,263
3,995
4,570
5,002
6,403
Other
1,926
2,991
5,225
6,120
6,269
7,309
Current liabilities
3,655
5,037
5,853
5,647
6,759
8,526
2,308
4,126
7,246
7,506
7,441
8,123
Investments
Current Assets
13,475
20,524
27,366
32,325
34,691
35,676
844
Depreciation
203
309
456
(28)
1,709
2,725
234
316
271
1,251
1,065
1,755
861
1,321
608
779
875
1,676
(532)
674
587
279
429
841
(465)
(1,474)
100
1,892
1,094
2,955
3,324
3,077
4,410
2,264
1,010
1,446
891
(214)
908
945
168
4,401
4,215
2,863
5,318
3,209
1,178
Issue of Equity
1,250
426
87
(4)
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
2,790
4,379
4,803
3,799
1,958
276
134
81
176
166
175
183
(594)
(172)
3,946
5,772
5,307
3,801
1,784
92
386
1,093
971
(1,417)
467
1,430
1,815
2,909
3,879
2,463
2,930
1,815
2,909
3,879
2,463
2,930
2,937
(40) (1,049)
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March
16.5
13.4
18.5
15.6
31.4
20.5
P/CEPS
12.4
10.0
8.4
10.3
13.4
10.3
P/BV
2.2
1.8
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.0
1.0
EV/Sales
5.8
4.6
3.1
2.7
2.8
2.5
17.9
13.8
11.2
10.0
11.6
10.0
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
EPS (Basic)
5.2
6.4
4.7
5.5
2.7
4.2
2.9
4.2
4.7
5.5
2.7
4.2
Cash EPS
6.9
8.6
10.2
8.4
6.4
8.3
DPS
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.9
39.2
47.8
40.0
44.2
46.1
49.4
EBIT margin
27.7
28.5
23.5
22.8
18.8
18.9
72.3
71.7
81.4
66.6
67.6
67.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
ROIC (Post-tax)
8.9
8.6
9.6
7.9
5.7
6.4
3.5
3.4
5.5
4.7
5.1
4.9
Leverage (x)
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.1
16.6
16.3
16.2
13.7
6.8
9.4
ROCE (Pre-tax)
10.6
10.3
10.2
10.5
7.7
8.6
18.7
17.6
15.2
14.6
10.2
10.7
ROE
16.3
15.9
13.0
13.0
6.1
8.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
76
66
49
42
46
45
EV/EBITDA
EV / Total Assets
Per Share Data (`)
Book Value
DuPont Analysis
Operating ROE
Returns (%)
Receivables (days)
44
48
58
67
74
69
338
353
239
186
195
205
43
51
81
111
127
110
1.4
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.0
4.7
4.9
4.9
5.1
6.2
5.4
Interest Coverage
3.5
3.5
2.3
2.3
1.5
1.8
Payables (days)
W.cap cycle (ex-cash) (days)
Solvency ratios (x)
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
JP Associates
No
No
No
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12