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This year is key to ensure Russia remains competitiveness in the space race Farivar 7/19/11- Cyrus Farivar, Staff Writer for the AFP (7/19/11, Russia launches advanced space telescope, http://www.dwworld.de/dw/article/0,,15250208,00.html) SP A Soviet legacy The space telescope was initially conceived of decades ago, during the halcyon days of the Soviet space program, but was perpetually postponed, and was mothballed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. "For 20 years, it was always five years away," said Ken Kellermann of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in the United States, in an interview with the American magazine New Scientist. Rocket launchRussian space authorities said the telescope reached its target orbit several hours after launchThe telescope, which is also known as RadioAstron, has a 10-meter (32.8-foot) diameter, a small size when compared to many current terrestrial radio telescopes. However, given that its data will be combined with signals collected from Earth stations, and the fact that it will have a large 340,000-kilometer (around 211,000-mile) orbit, the telescope is expected to have a resolution 100,000 times better than the American-built Hubble Space Telescope, which was launched in 1990. Russian space authorities are planning on coordinating the new telescope's observations with radio telescopes in the United States, Puerto Rico and Germany. This year is significant for the Russian space program, as it surges ahead during the hiatus of manned American space missions. Earlier this year, Moscow feted the 50th anniversary of the first manned spaceflight, by Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin. All international space missions ferrying humans into space will have to be launched via the Russian Soyuz capsule from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. "The main point is that Russia is returning to scientific programs in space after a long break," said Vladimir Popovkin, the head of Roscosmos, according to ITAR-TASS.

Russia can solve for space development and exploration, including Mars missions, space debris collection, GPS, space shuttle systems, and exploration of the Martian moon Phobos Weird 7/19/11- Fred Weir, Correspondent and Staff Writer for the Christian Science Monitor (7/19/11, Russian Telescope Launch
Pulls National Space Program Out of Black Hole, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0719/Russian-telescope-launchpulls-national-space-program-out-of-black-hole/%28page%29/2) SP Russia has held advanced positions traditionally, and this is a logical next step for our space program. It's just great." Scientists from more than 20 countries will participate in RadioAstron's five-year mission, according to the Russian Space Agency. Skip to next paragraph Russia's space program fell on hard times after the collapse of the USSR 20 years ago, and even a few years ago appeared to be little more than a "space taxi" to ferry astronauts to and from the International Space Station. But with increased funding and improving morale, Russian space scientists now have a variety of ambitious projects on the agenda. They include a manned mission to Mars by 2030, a space plane to rival the US X-37B, and a nuclear-powered spacepod that could gobble up space junk like an orbiting Pac-Man. Despite some very serious recent setbacks, Russia's answer to the US Global Positioning System (GPS) navigational network, Glonass, is slated to be fully operational by the end of this year. In November, Russia will finally launch its long-awaited Phobos-Grunt probe, which aims to bring home a soil sample from the Martian moon Phobos. And with the end of the US space shuttle program, even Russia's traditional space niche of powerful rocket launchers and venerable Soyuz space vehicles is set to become the only game in town.

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Scenario 1 is Russian CompetitivenessRussia perceives any unilateral space policy by the United States as offensive- the lowered thresholds of military intervention increase the likelihood of miscalculation Blank 9- Stephen Blank, Former Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace, B.A. in History from the University of
Pennsylvania and M.A. and Ph.D. in History from the University of Chicago, Researcher for the Strategic Studies Institute (March 2009, Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration? http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf) SP Furthermore, Russia wants to keep things this way because any unilateral, substantive, or qualitative progress in American capabilities beyond the confines of what Russia defines as strategic stability will allow America to harvest the full benefits of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) and give it either a means of attacking Russias nuclear arsenal, nullifying it by missile defenses, bypassing it by high-precision conventional attacks, or combining the three through space weaponization. Such capabilities need not be used in conflict to be successful, all they need to do is be deployed as instruments of coercive diplomacy as in a Kosovo-type crisis, one of the many nightmare scenarios of the Russian leadership. And the nightmare is, as countless Russian statements state openly, that the parity with the United States will then no longer exist.57 Weapons in space, the use of conventional missiles on nuclear launchers, and missile defenses, are among such breakout possibilities for America. As Pavel Podvig has observed, One of the consequences of this is that if the promises held by the revolution in military affairs materialize, even incompletely, they may significantly lower the threshold of military intervention. And this is exactly the outcome that Russia is worried about, for it believes that the new capabilities might open the way to a more aggressive interventionist policy of the United States and NATO, that may well challenge Russias interests in various regions and especially in areas close to the Russian borders.58

U.S.-Russian miscalculation is the only scenario for extinction Bostrom 2- Nick Bostrom, Professor of Philosophy at Oxford University, Journal of Evolution and Technology (March 2002,
Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards) SP A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. An all-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with consequences that might have been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal. There was a real worry among those best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization.[4] Russia and the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation, either accidentally or deliberately. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals. Note however that a smaller nuclear exchange, between India and Pakistan for instance, is not an existential risk, since it would not destroy or thwart humankinds potential permanently. Such a war might however be a local terminal risk for the cities most likely to be targeted. Unfortunately, we shall see that nuclear Armageddon and comet or asteroid strikes are mere preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century.

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Scenario 2 is Russian PoliticsThe Russian elections will come down to Putin and Medvedevs popularity Gregory 5/23 Paul Gregory, research fellow at Stanford Universitys Hoover Institute, focusing on the Russian Economy and
Russian politics, 5/23/2011, A Russian Rift, The National Review Online, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/267809/russianrift-paul-gregory?page=3. CJS The campaign will be decided by power politics. If the electors think that Putin is on his way down, they will support Medvedev. If they conclude that Medvedev is a paper tiger, despite his massive formal powers as president, they will back Putin. The electors must also make personal cost-benefit calculations. The beneficiaries of Putins corruption will worry that they will lose everything if there is a regime change. So they might support Putin or they might offer their support to Medvedev in return for guarantees. Putin himself would have this concern ten times over. Can he strike a deal with Medvedev that will preserve his wealth and give him legal immunity? The electors will be frantically reading the tea leaves. At this point, I imagine no one really knows which way to jump. The pro-Putin forces, however, see a few things that should alarm them. Putins personal popularity has been falling in the polls. So has Medvedevs, but Putin is the symbol of the status quo. Both mens approval ratings remain high, but it is the direction of change that counts. A growing number of Russians tell pollsters that Russia is moving in the wrong direction. Many opinion-making celebrities, artists, and journalists are now openly critical of Putin. Putins political party, United Russia, took a beating in the recent municipal elections. Its candidates failed in a number of cases to win majorities even though they had no real opposition. The failure to win majorities suggests that voters chose anybody but Putins candidate.

Space winning key to Medvedev popularity Daily Beast 11 The Daily Beast, an American news reporting and opinion website, 7/8/2011, Russians Win the Space Race,
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/07/08/it-s-goodbye-shuttle-hello-soyuz-after-atlantis-last-flight.html. CJS But perhaps the most striking difference between Russia and America is in their attitudes to their respective space programs. NASAs future is uncertain because it has not so much been fulfilling a new dream as living in the shadow of an old one, says Bizony. For most Americans, the space race was won when Neil Armstrong landed on the moon in 1969; relative to Russians, their interest has waned in the new century, Bizony adds. For Russia, by contrast, being a major player in the space game remains a point of national pride. Massive festivities were held across Russia for the 50th anniversary of the Gagarin flight last April 12. A Soviet make of space-branded watches called Raketaworn by Gagarin himselfhas been revived as a luxury brand for Russias patriotically minded new rich. And when Russias space program makes a misstepsuch as when three Russian navigational satellites ended up in the Pacific Ocean after technicians overfilled one of the tanks in the rockets upper stage last Decemberthe Kremlin very publicly steps in. After the December debacle, President Dmitry Medvedev personally sacked top managers, and earlier this year called for Russia to develop its own space-exploration program for our nations scientific ambitions if we do not do this, we will fall behind.

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Putin takeover tanks US-Russia relations Abdullaev and Sardzhyan 7/12 Nabi Abdullaev is the editor of the Moscow Times with the European Union Institute for
Security Studies and presented at Harvards Center for Russian Eurasian Studies, and Simon Sardzhyan is a research fellow at Harvards Kennedy Schools Belfer Center and a former editor of the Moscow Times, 7/12/2011, News Analysis: Vladmir Putins 2012 Dilemna, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/news-analysis-vladimir-putins-2012-dilemma/440376.html. CJS The probability of Putin's return to power will increase substantially if any of the following key events occur before Medvedev's first term expires: Putin comes to believe that Medvedev will fail to either cope with challenges or protect his interests in 2012-18. A major terrorist attack or meltdown in the North Caucasus materializes. Ethnic riots escalate. Frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union escalate. Should any of these events or a combination of them occur this year or in the first weeks of 2012, Putin will replace Medvedev in the Kremlin to ensure political stability and solidify his own policies. After waning during Medvedev's term of office, the concept of sovereign democracy will stage a triumphant return as the core of Russia's national ideology. For opposition groups, it means a further stifling of their legal activities as the government increases control over NGOs under the pretence of fighting terrorism and extremism. The State Duma passes a new set of laws further curtailing civil liberties and media freedoms. The influence of the siloviki escalates, but Putin does not allow any particular group in the clan to dominate. Trying to offset the impact that a more aggressive foreign policy might have had on international investors, Putin understanding full well the need to diversify the economy decides to liberalize foreign corporations' access to the Russian market. The attempts by Russian companies to acquire downstream energy transportation infrastructure continue to meet the tacit but formidable resistance of most European governments. The favorable conditions offered by the Russian government attract quite a few major international companies, from energy giants to retail firms. While state champions continue to dominate in the so-called strategic industries such as Gazprom and Rosneft in the energy sector and Russian Technologies in the defense industry sector private companies, both Russian and international, thrive in the retail, construction, agriculture, food, entertainment and automobile sectors. A new war of words flares up between Moscow and Washington and Brussels over ballistic missile defense deployment in Europe. However, pragmatic approaches on both sides help gradually relieve tensions as Washington and Moscow converge on the perception that their common immediate security threat is posed not by each other but by a new wave of militant Islamism, which galvanizes North Caucasus religious extremists and creates new risks for the United States and NATO personnel deployed abroad. Russia increases its involvement in Belarus, progressing toward incorporating the country by solidifying its control over the economy of its neighbor. Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko lacks alternatives due to his increasing isolation from the West. Moscow also increases its presence in Central Asia as the growth of religious extremism there prompts regional leaders to seek a strong and unscrupulous ally in the fight against Muslim radicals. Although Chinese influence on the economy of these states increases, it is Russia that remains the center of gravity for the Central Asian republics. The strong authoritarian political model that is being rebuilt by Putin is increasingly appealing to the Central Asian leaders. Putin also continues to anchor these and other former Soviet republics to Moscow through integration projects such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Eurasian Economic Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Having cooled Russia's engagement with the West, Putin pursues a closer alignment with China, further increasing energy exports to this country.

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US Russia relations solves extinction Collins and Rojansky 10 James F. Collins was the former ambassador to Russia, expert in the Soviet Union, director of the
Russia Eurasia Program, recipient of the Secretary of State Award for Distinguished Service, Secretary of States Distinguished Honor Award, DOD Award for Distinguished Public Service, BA from Harvard. Matthew Rojansky is the deputy director of the Russia Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment, Harvard Undergrad Stanford Law School, former head of the Partnership for a Secure America which focuses on bipartisan dialogue on US National Security Challenges, 8/18/2010, Why Russia Matters, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2010/08/18/why-russia-matters/3si CJS A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with Russia, the reconciliation is still fragile, incomplete, and politically divisive. Sure, Russia is no easy ally for the United States. Authoritarian yet insecure, economically mighty yet technologically backward, the country has proven a challenge for U.S. presidents since the end of the Cold War. Recent news hasn't helped: The arrest in July of a former deputy prime minister and leader of the Solidarity opposition movement, Boris Nemtsov, provoked some of the harshest criticism of Russia yet from the Obama administration. Then last [Collins and Rojansky continueno text deleted] Wednesday, Russia announced that it had moved anti-aircraft missiles into Abkhazia, the region that broke off from Georgia during the August 2008 war. The announcement was hardly welcome news for the United States, which has tried to defuse tensions there for the last 24 months. Yet however challenging this partnership may be, Washington can't afford not to work with Moscow. Ronald Reagan popularized the phrase, "Trust, but verify" -- a good guiding principle for Cold War arms negotiators, and still apt for today. Engagement is the only way forward. Here are 10 reasons why: 1. Russia's nukes are still an existential threat. Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons in stockpile and hundreds still on hair-trigger alert aimed at U.S. cities. This threat will not go away on its own; cutting down the arsenal will require direct, bilateral arms control talks between Russia and the United States. New START, the strategic nuclear weapons treaty now up for debate in the Senate, is the latest in a long line of bilateral arms control agreements between the countries dating back to the height of the Cold War. To this day, it remains the only mechanism granting U.S. inspectors access to secret Russian nuclear sites. The original START agreement was essential for reining in the runaway Cold War nuclear buildup, and New START promises to cut deployed strategic arsenals by a further 30 percent from a current limit of 2,200 to 1,550 on each side. Even more, President Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, have agreed to a long-term goal of eliminating nuclear weapons entirely. But they can only do that by working together. 2. Russia is a swing vote on the international stage. As one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, Moscow holds veto power over any resolution that the body might seek to pass -- including recent efforts to levy tougher sanctions on Iran or, in 2009, against North Korea following that country's second nuclear test. Russian support for such resolutions can also help persuade China and others not to block them. The post-reset relationship between Moscow and Washington works like a force multiplier for U.S. diplomacy. Russia plays an equally crucial role in the G-8 and G-20 economic groups, helping to formulate a coordinated approach in response to economic threats. In 2008, for example, Russia supported a G-20 resolution promising to refrain from protectionism and avoid new barriers to investment or trade. 3. Russia is big. The country's borders span across Europe, Central and East Asia, and the Arctic -- all regions where the United States has important interests and where it cannot afford destructive competition. With an ongoing counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan, the United States has a strong interest in Central Asian stability and relies on Russia not only for direct assistance with logistics and information sharing, but to help manage threats like the recent political upheaval and sectarian violence in Kyrgyzstan. In the former Soviet space, Moscow's historical ties to newly independent states are still fresh and powerful. Moscow is the linchpin to resolving "frozen conflicts" that prevent countries like Moldova, Georgia, and Azerbaijan from prospering economically and moving toward European Union membership. Recently, for example, Moscow signaled renewed interest in resolving frozen conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria. And despite recent troop movements into Abkhazia, a negotiated settlement is still very possible, one that returns some territory to Georgia but preserves its autonomous status, along with that of its fellow breakaway republic, South Ossetia. 4. Russia's environment matters. As the catastrophic fires across Western Russia have dramatically illustrated, Russia is both a victim of global climate change and a steward of natural resources -- including many of the forests now badly burned -- needed to reverse the global warming trend. With more than one-tenth of the world's total landmass, vast freshwater and ocean resources, plus deposits of nearly every element on the periodic table, Russia is an indispensable partner in the responsible stewardship of the global environment. On climate change, there is work to be done, but progress is evident. Russia today is the world's fourth-largest carbon emitter, but as a signatory to the Copenhagen Accord, it has pledged to reduce emissions to 20 to 25 percent below 1990 levels. Another black spot is Russia's use of "flaring" -- a technique that burns natural gas into the open atmosphere during oil extraction, but Medvedev agreed to capture 95 percent of the gas currently released through flaring. Last year he also signed Russia's first law on energy efficiency, which takes such steps as requiring goods to be marked according to their energy efficiency

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and banning [Collins and Rojansky continueno text deleted] incandescent light bulbs after 2014. True, most of Russia's other commitments are short on deadlines and concrete deliverables. But like China's cleanup for the Beijing Olympics, Moscow could transform resolve into reality with surprising speed, given the right amount of international engagement. And in the meantime, Russia's natural climate-cleaning properties are vast; the Siberian provinces alone contain more clean oxygen-producing forests and reserves of freshwater than continental Europe. 5. Russia is rich. As the "R" in the famous BRIC grouping of emerging economies, Russia is the 12th-largest market in world, with the third-largest foreign currency reserves. And the country's role in world markets is only growing. Russia is a big player in commodity trading, the country boasts a volatile but increasingly attractive stock exchange, and it is open to foreign investment -- even in state-owned industries. Russian businesses are increasingly looking abroad to form strategic partnerships, acquire assets, and sell their products. And as a country that felt the global financial crisis viscerally -- economic growth fell by almost 8 percent in 2009 -- Russia has a strong interest in making sure there is no repeat. Despite occasional retrenchments, such as the ban on grain exports after the summer fires, Russia is committed to becoming a free-trading World Trade Organization member, and wants more access to U.S. and European technology and management know-how to drive its modernization. Excessive bureaucracy and widespread [Collins and Rojansky continueno text deleted] corruption are the biggest challenges to Russia's further economic growth, but these are already top talking points in Medvedev's modernization drive, and engagement with more transparent Western countries such as the United States can only help. 6. One word: energy. The American way of life depends on stable and predictable commodity prices -- gasoline, natural gas, and coal in particular -and Russia plays a large role in the global production and pricing of these fossil fuels. Russia alone possesses roughly onequarter of the world's known gas reserves, and it is currently responsible for over a fifth of global exports. It is the second largest oil-producing state after Saudi Arabia and has the second-largest coal reserves after the United States. The even better news for Washington is that Russia is not a member of OPEC, the cartel of oil-producing countries. This gives the country far more freedom to focus on increasing exports rather than reducing them to keep prices down. When it comes to bringing supply to market, many will no doubt remember the so-called gas wars between Russia and Ukraine and Russia and Belarus that left Eastern Europe in the cold several times in recent years. Much of the trouble is attributable to the legacy of Soviet energy infrastructure in Russia's western neighbors, which put a choke-hold on Russia's gas pipelines. Moscow is currently working with the United States, China, and Western Europe to find a way around this problem, which will entail building new pipelines through the Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Siberia. 7. Russia is a staunch ally in the war on terror (and other scourges). Even during the dark days after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, Moscow and Washington cooperated effectively on counterterrorism, counternarcotics, infectious disease prevention and response, and other shared security priorities. Recently, the two have worked together under the auspices of the Bilateral Presidential Commission to coordinate relief strategies for catastrophes such as the Haiti earthquake and the violence in Kyrgyzstan. Both Washington and Moscow recognize that swift, well-organized responses to such crises are key to preventing weaknesses from being exploited -- for example by extremist groups who are happy to fill the vacuum of government authority. Russia is also a critical partner in U.S. law enforcement efforts to defeat organized crime and terrorism financing. The two countries are currently working to map smuggling routes in Central Asia. And Russia has shared information with the United States on the informal financial networks used to fund Taliban and Afghan warlords. 8. The roads to Tehran and Pyongyang go through Moscow. Russia maintains unique relationships with Iran and North Korea -- both top concerns on Washington's nuclear nonproliferation radar. In the past, the Kremlin has used its leverage to keep the path open for negotiations, sending senior diplomats to Tehran and offering carrots such as civilian nuclear assistance and weapons sales (though it has deferred the sale of advanced S-300 ground-to-air missiles that could be used to blunt a U.S. or Israeli air strike). Now more than ever, Washington needs allies with that kind of leverage to help punish violators and discourage cascading nuclear proliferation worldwide. Leading by example on nonproliferation is also a must; as the world's biggest nuclear powers, the United States and Russia are looked to as the standard-setters. If they fail to ratify their latest modest step forward on bilateral nuclear arms control, it will be difficult to push other countries to take similar counter-proliferation measures. 9. Russia can be a peacemaker. Moscow has the potential to play a role in the settlement of key regional conflicts -- or if it chooses, to obstruct progress. Russia is a member of the Middle East "Quartet," the six-party talks dealing with North Korean denuclearization, and each of the working groups addressing conflicts in the post-Soviet space, such as the OSCE Minsk group on Nagorno-Karabakh, and the 5+2 group on Transnistria. In such post-Soviet regions in particular, Russia has a unique capacity to contribute to peaceful resolution of territorial disputes by facilitating trade and economic engagement with and between former adversaries, and acting as a peacekeeper once a final settlement is reached. In the Middle East, Russia still controls a network of commercial and intelligence assets and has substantial influence with the

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Syrians, who should be pushed to play a more productive role in the Arab-Israeli peace process. 10. Russians buy U.S. goods. As the U.S. economy stops and starts its way out of recession, most everyone agrees that boosting exports is a key component in the recovery. And Russia is a big market. U.S. companies such as Boeing, International [Collins and Rojansky continueno text deleted] Paper, and John Deere have invested billions in Russian subsidiaries and joint ventures. In all, there are more than 1,000 U.S. companies doing business there today. They are in Russia not only to take advantage of the country's vast natural resources and highly skilled workers but also to meet the demand for Americanbranded goods. The Russian middle class wants consumer goods and the country's firms increasingly seek advanced U.S. equipment and machinery. Between 2004 and 2008, before the financial crisis hit, U.S.-Russia trade grew by more than 100 percent to over $36 billion annually, and although that figure dropped by a third in 2009, there is potential for an even better, more balanced trade relationship in the coming decade. In short, Russia is indispensible. As long as the United States participates in the global economy and has interests beyond its own borders, it will have no choice but to maintain relations with Russia. And good relations would be even better.

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Scenario 3 is the Russian Economy With the US backing down Russia has massively increased its investments in space Kevin OFlynn 10 (a journalist at The Moscow Times who has lived and worked in Russia for ten years, 3/24/10,
http://rbth.ru/articles/2010/03/24/240310_space.html) On April 2, new Soyuz crew members, two Russians and one American, are scheduled to launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Circling the planet, the crew will engage in intense cooperation unknown on the ground. Down on earth, Russian-American space cooperation has increased, but there is also unease as the power of the players is shifting. Russia will fuel space exploration once again, while the U.S. vision appears dampened. America is relying more and more on the Russian federal space program for key assistance. As the United States reprioritizes its programs, the country will rely on Russia to take its astronauts into space. NASA has long spent more money on more programs than Russias space agency. But President Barack Obama has slashed NASAs dreams of going to the moon again. Building new spacecraft for the exploration of Mars is again a flight of fancy. At the same time, the Russian space industry is feeling the warm glow of state backing once again. There has been concerted investment in recent years, an investment that fits in well with the Putin doctrine of trying to restore Russian pride through capacity. And while both countries feel they are the front runners, their dominance could be challenged in the next decade by India and China as they fund their own programs. The Russian government has increased spending on the space industry by a remarkable 40 percent for each of the past five years, spending $2.8 billion in 2009, Euroconsult reported. Its like night and day, said Igor Lissov, editor of News of Cosmonautics (Novosti Kosmonavtiki), comparing funding today with funding in the penurious 1990s. President Putin launched an initial $10 billion program for the space industry between 2006 and 2015. When Putin congratulated space industry workers in 2008 on Cosmonauts' Day (April 12), he called on them to pursue really ambitious projects. The U.S. Constellation human-flight program that Obama has all but abandoned was designed, according to President George W. Bush, to establish an extended human presence on the Moon that would then lead to flights to Mars. Obama cut it from the 2011 budget as the effects of the financial crisis continue to be felt and program expenditure soared. The government said that though NASA has already spent $9 billion on it, the program is fundamentally unexecutable. Instead, America will look to private companies to invest in future spacecraft. In the meantime, U.S. astronauts will hitch a lift on Russian spacecraft, a move that has NASA supporters crying foul. In the wake of recent criticism, Obama announced he will make a visit to Cape Canaveral, Fla., the home of NASA, in April. Russian and American space watchers wonder if this may herald another policy shift. For now, the United States will rely solely on the Russian space program as the U.S. Shuttle retires from service. No private companies have so far secured investment for spacecraft, so this arrangement will likely continue for much longer. Russian academic Yury Zaitsev told Interfax news agency that he thought the United States would be dependent on Russia to transport its astronauts until at least 2020. In order to bring a craft to the standards of quality and safety for a piloted flight, you need years and years, he said. NASA has signed a $306 million contract with the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) for U.S. astronauts to fly to the International Space Station in 2012.

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The perception that Russia can close the gap with the US is the key driver of these investments the plan ends that perception Ilya Arkhipov and Lyubov Pronina 4/5/11 (Staff writers for Bloomberg news, Bloomberg,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-04/russia-speeds-up-moon-mars-plans-as-u-s-may-cut-space-funds.html) Russia may accelerate planned missions to the moon and Mars as it seeks to maintain its lead over China in space exploration and close the gap with the U.S. Russia may start manned flights to the moon by the end of the decade, 10 years earlier than previously planned, and establish a base there by 2030, according to Russias Roscosmos space agency. Russia may also send a man to Mars by 2040. It is the first time that the government has allocated decent financing to us, Anatoly Perminov, head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, said in a phone interview on April 2. The agencys $3.5 billion budget for 2011 has almost tripled since 2007, reaching the highest since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. We can now advance on all themes a bit, Perminov said. Unlike 50 years ago, when beating the U.S. into space marked a geopolitical victory in the Cold War, Russia is focusing on the commercial, technological and scientific aspects of space travel. President Dmitry Medvedev has named aerospace one of five industries the government plans to nurture to help diversify the economy of the worlds largest energy supplier away from resource extraction. We are increasing the space budget as the time has come for a technological breakthrough, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said by phone yesterday. We need to replace outdated infrastructure and continue to support the flagship status of the space industry. Space Station Cooperation Russias Soyuz TMA-21 spacecraft with three astronauts on board was launched early today from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to the International Space Station. The launch marks the 50th anniversary on April 12 of Yuri Gagarins first mission to space. Alexander Samokutiaev and Andrey Borisenko of Roscosmos and NASAs Ron Garan are scheduled to arrive at the station on April 7, Roscosmos said on its website. Russia is working on the ISS with the U.S. It will provide the only way for U.S. astronauts to travel to the station following a decision to end the almost 30-year-old space shuttle program this year, with the last two flights scheduled for April and June. U.S. Funds Russia receives $752 million from the U.S. for sending crews to the ISS through 2015. The country is using the launch fee of $63 million per member on craft development, maintenance and upgrade, Perminov said. U.S. President Barack Obama in February last year announced an end to NASAs Constellation program, developed under former President George W. Bushs administration, which would have built rockets and spacecraft for a return to the moon by 2020. The decision has been criticized by former NASA astronauts and officials, including the agencys previous administrator and Neil Armstrong, the first man to walk on the Moon, saying it will sideline the American space program. With no manned government rockets ready to go, routine trips to so-called low- earth orbit will be outsourced to private companies. NASA is seeking an $18.7 billion budget for next year, $300 million less than the funding targeted for this year. Russia intends to continue allocating more funds for the space industry, Peskov said. Well increase financing if possible, depending on the budget balance, because the industry was and remains one of our priorities, he said.

Space investments are key to sustaining Russias economy USA Today 11/12/09 (Newspaper, citing Medvedev http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-11-12-russia-economy_N.htm)
MOSCOW (AP) Russia needs to shed its dependence on exports of raw materials and to build a new high-tech economy to survive, President Dmitry Medvedev said in his annual state-of-the-nation address Thursday. In a challenge to his predecessor and mentor, Vladimir Putin, Medvedev also called for reducing state involvement in the economy and promised to offer support to civil society. Medvedev said the country has continued to rely on an aging Soviet industrial base and to draw most of its revenues from exports of energy resources. "The nation's prestige and welfare can't depend forever on the achievements of the past," he said. Medvedev said in the Kremlin speech that Russia's oil, gas and other production facilities as well as its nuclear arsenals were built during Soviet times. "All that has kept the country afloat, but it is rapidly aging," he added. Medvedev said that years of burgeoning energy prices have stymied efforts to modernize the economy and created an illusion that structural reforms could wait. "We can't wait any longer," he said. "We need to launch modernization and renovation of the entire industrial base. Our nation's survival in the modern world will depend on that." He said that Russia needs to focus on innovative know-how, including research on new nuclear reactors and space technologies, and even think about preparing for space flights to other planets. Medvedev said that the economic downturn hit Russia more severely than other countries but refused to shift the blame onto the U.S. as Putin, now Russia's powerful prime minister, did. "We shouldn't be looking for the guilty party abroad," Medvedev said. "We haven't done enough."

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Russia International CP

DDI 2011 1

1NC Shell- Russian Economy

Russian economic decline causes civil warescalates and goes nuclear. David 99 Steven David, Professor of International Relations and Vice Dean for Undergraduate Education at Johns Hopkins
University.[1] He specializes in international politics and security issues, 1999, Foreign Affairs, Lexis. If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause . From 1989 to the present, the GDP has fallen by 50 percent. In a society where, ten years ago, unemployment scarcely existed, it reached 9.5 percent in 1997 with many economists declaring the true figure to be much higher. Twenty- two percent of Russians live below the official poverty line (earning less than $ 70 a month). Modern Russia can neither collect taxes (it gathers only half the revenue it is due) nor significantly cut spending. Reformers tout privatization as the country's cure-all, but in a land without well-defined property rights or contract law and where subsidies remain a way of life, the prospects for transition to an American-style capitalist economy look remote at best. As the massive devaluation of the ruble and the current political crisis show, Russia's condition is even worse than most analysts feared. If conditions get worse, even the stoic Russian people will soon run out of patience. A future conflict would quickly draw in Russia's military. In the Soviet days civilian rule kept the powerful armed forces in check. But with the Communist Party out of office, what little civilian control remains relies on an exceedingly fragile foundation -- personal friendships between government leaders and military commanders. Meanwhile, the morale of Russian soldiers has fallen to a dangerous low. Drastic cuts in spending mean inadequate pay, housing, and medical care. A new emphasis on domestic missions has created an ideological split between the old and new guard in the military leadership, increasing the risk that disgruntled generals may enter the political fray and feeding the resentment of soldiers who dislike being used as a national police force. Newly enhanced ties between military units and local authorities pose another danger. Soldiers grow ever more dependent on local governments for housing, food, and wages. Draftees serve closer to home, and new laws have increased local control over the armed forces. Were a conflict to emerge between a regional power and Moscow, it is not at all clear which side the military would support. Divining the military's allegiance is crucial, however, since the structure of the Russian Federation makes it virtually certain that regional conflicts will continue to erupt. Russia's 89 republics,krais, andoblast s grow ever more independent in a system that does little to keep them together. As the central government finds itself unable to force its will beyond Moscow (if even that far), power devolves to the periphery. With the economy collapsing, republics feel less and less incentive to pay taxes to Moscow when they receive so little in return. Three-quarters of them already have their own constitutions, nearly all of which makes some claim to sovereignty. Strong ethnic bonds promoted by shortsighted Soviet policies may motivate nonRussians to secede from the Federation. Chechnyas successful revolt against Russian control inspired similar movements for autonomy and independence throughout the country. If these rebellions spread and Moscow responds with force, civil war is likely. Should Russia succumb to internal war, the consequences for the United States and Europe will be severe. A major power like Russiaeven though in declinedoes not suffer civil war quietly or alone. An embattled Russian Federation might provoke opportunistic attacks from enemies such as China. Massive flows of refugees would pour into central and western Europe. Armed struggles in Russia could easily spill into its neighbors. Damage from the fighting, particularly attacks on nuclear plants, would poison the environment of much of Europe and Asia. Within Russia, the consequences would be even worse. Just as the sheer brutality of the last Russian civil war laid the basis for the privations of Soviet communism, a second civil war might produce another horrific regime. Most alarming is the real possibility that the violent disintegration of Russia could lead to a loss of control over its nuclear arsenal. No nuclear state has ever fallen victim to civil war, but even without a clear precedent the grim consequences can be foreseen. Russia retain some 20,000 nuclear weapons and the raw material for tens of thousands more, in scores of sites scattered throughout the country. So far, the government has managed to prevent the loss of any weapons or much material. If war erupts, however, Moscows already weak grip on nuclear sites will be slacken, making weapons and supplies available to a wide range of antiAmerican groups and states. Such dispersal of nuclear weapons represents the greatest physical threat America now faces. And it is hard to think of anything that would increase this threat more than the chaos that would follow a Russian civil war.

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