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Andhra Bank
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 3.4 11.8 (4.1) 2QFY11 840 627 331 % chg (yoy) 17.1 22.5 (8.4)
`117 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 3QFY2012, Andhra Bank posted a weak set of numbers with net profit declining by 8.4% yoy (down 4.1%) to `303cr, in-line with our estimates. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Asset-quality pressures moderate but still above normal levels: The banks loan book grew sequentially by 7.6% to `79,169cr (up 20.7% yoy), while deposits grew by 4.5% qoq to `98,680cr (up 20.2% yoy). CASA deposits growth was also healthy at 6.4% qoq (up 12.1% yoy), which was primarily driven by strong 7.1% qoq growth in saving account deposits. The banks yield on funds rose by 20bp qoq during the quarter, however cost of funds also rose by 19bp, leading to reported NIM remaining flat sequentially at 3.8%. The banks slippages, which had surged sharply during 2QFY2012 to `1,094cr owing to shift to system-based NPA recognition platform (slippage ratio of 6.1%), moderated down to `381cr (slippage ratio of 2.1%) in 3QFY2012. Gross NPA ratio as of 3QFY2012 stood at 2.4% (2.7% in 2QFY2012), while net NPA ratio stood at 1.2% (1.5% in 2QFY2012). Provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs), which was as strong as 82.0% in 1QFY2012, remained weak at 65.4% for 3QFY2012. The bank restructured ~`1,200cr worth of accounts during 3QFY2012, of which restructuring of GTL contributed ~`1,000cr. The bank also took NPV hit of ~`150cr in the P&L on account of restructuring of GTL. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.8x FY2013E ABV compared to its five-year range of 0.7x1.3x one-year forward ABV with a median of 1.1x. Considering the banks relatively higher risk exposures, particularly to the power sector (more than 16% of the loan book) and that peers of the bank are also trading at similar valuations with similar or better asset quality outlook, we remain Neutral on the stock. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 58.0 15.4 13.3 13.4
3m 2.7 2.5
FY2010 2,195 34.9 1,046 60.1 2.8 21.6 5.3 1.3 1.3 26.0
FY2011 3,221 46.8 1,267 21.2 3.3 22.6 5.1 1.0 1.3 23.2
FY2012E 3,881 20.5 1,312 3.6 3.4 23.4 4.9 0.9 1.1 18.8
FY2013E 4,323 11.4 1,194 -9.0 3.2 21.3 5.4 0.8 0.9 15.1
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 2,923 2,391 499 34 1,939 984 235 219 180 16 9 31 1,219 452 285 167 768 309 248 19 42 458 155 303 33.8 2,783 2,293 477 13 1,831 951 178 156 145 22 4 6 1,129 442 274 169 687 261 221 3 37 426 110 316 25.8 5.0 4.3 4.5 163.8 (NA) 5.9 3.4 32.3 40.7 23.7 (26.6) 110.0 384.1 8.0 2.1 4.1 (1.1) 11.8 18.7 12.4 551.7 14.5 7.5 40.9 (4.1) 802bp 2,122 1,712 401 9 1,282 840 199 189 159 10 14 16 1,039 412 260 152 627 172 152 0 19 455 124 331 27.3 37.8 39.6 24.5 285.8 (NA) 51.3 17.1 18.4 16.1 13.0 62.6 (39.1) 97.4 17.4 9.6 9.7 9.4 22.5 80.2 62.9 13,492.9 119.4 0.7 25.0 (8.4) 657bp
Actual 984 235 1,219 452 768 309 458 155 303
Estimates 968 201 1,169 467 702 280 421 118 303
Var. (%) 1.6 17.0 4.3 (3.4) 9.4 10.5 8.7 31.3 (0.1)
3QFY12 79,169 98,680 80.2 5,532 20,729 26,261 26.6 12.6 8.2 7.6 12.8 7.8 10.3 6.8 3.8 37.0 1,884 2.4 943 1.2 65.4 2.1 0.9
2QFY12 73,592 94,435 77.9 5,338 19,355 24,693 26.1 13.1 8.8 7.5 12.5 7.8 10.1 6.7 3.8 39.2 1,987 2.7 1,087 1.5 61.7 6.1 0.8
%chg (qoq) 7.6 4.5 230bp 3.6 7.1 6.4 46bp (49)bp (53)bp 14bp 31bp 7bp 20bp 19bp (1)bp (213)bp (5.2) (29)bp (13.2) (27)bp 370bp (399)bp 6bp
3QFY11 65,587 82,095 79.9 5,216 18,212 23,428 28.5 12.0 7.1 5.8 11.1 7.5 9.1 5.5 3.9 39.7 872 1.3 308 0.5 80.4 1.5 0.6
%chg (yoy) 20.7 20.2 34bp 6.1 13.8 12.1 (193)bp 58bp 118bp 175bp 169bp 35bp 124bp 136bp (10)bp (263)bp 116.0 105bp 206.1 74bp (1503)bp 68bp 22bp
77.5
8.9 12.3
8.3 4.5
6.0
3.9
7.6 4.5
28.5
29.1
27.8
26.1
(1.4)
(5.0)
(2.8)
25.0 24.0
26.6
3.4
5.0 -
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
3.80
1.3 0.5
1.4 0.4
1.6 0.5
2.7 1.5
2.4 1.2
6.1
1.4
1.5
1.4
2.1
0.5
15.0
1.0
0.2 -
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
14.7
20.0
260
298
273
274
39.7
38.7
37.9
39.2
10.0 -
37.0
285
(10.0)
Investment concerns
Moderate fee income; low CASA
During FY200711, fee income for the bank reported a CAGR of only 12.8% compared to advances posting a CAGR of 26.5%. However, at 0.8% of overall assets for FY2011, fee income for the bank is moderate compared to other mid-size PSU banks. On the CASA front, the banks market share has fallen by 35bp over FY2005-1HFY2012; and at 26.1%, the banks CASA ratio is on the lower end compared to peers.
Earlier estimates FY2012 12.0 18.0 28.4 3.3 (6.6) 4.0 14.0 3.5 63.0 FY2013 13.0 14.0 28.8 3.1 10.5 14.0 15.0 3.5 62.0
Revised estimates FY2012 16.0 18.0 28.4 3.4 0.1 4.0 12.0 3.5 65.0 FY2013 13.0 16.0 28.3 3.2 5.9 15.0 15.0 3.3 65.0
FY2013 Earlier estimates 4,203 926 5,129 2,097 3,033 1,334 1,699 551 1,148 Revised Var. (%) estimates 4,323 950 5,273 2,094 3,179 1,412 1,767 573 1,194 2.8 2.6 2.8 (0.1) 4.8 5.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
Earlier estimates 3,817 838 4,655 1,833 2,822 1,077 1,745 489 1,256
Revised Var. (%) estimates 3,881 897 4,778 1,821 2,957 1,083 1,875 562 1,312 1.7 7.1 2.6 (0.7) 4.8 0.5 7.4 15.1 4.5
0.6x
0.8x
1x
1.2x
1.4x
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries); # without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY growth (%) Other income - YoY growth (%) Operating income - YoY growth (%) Operating expenses - YoY growth (%) Pre-prov. profit - YoY growth (%) Prov. & cont. - YoY growth (%) PBT - YoY growth (%) Prov. for taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY growth (%) FY07 1,418 21.3 522 12.5 1,940 18.8 933 8.8 1,007 29.8 222 1.8 785 40.8 247 31.5 538 10.8 FY08 1,340 (5.5) 626 19.9 1,966 1.3 909 (2.6) 1,057 5.0 139 (37.2) 918 16.9 342 37.3 576 7.0 FY09 1,627 21.5 765 22.2 2,392 21.7 1,104 21.5 1,288 21.9 390 179.9 898 (2.1) 245 27.3 653 13.5 FY10 2,195 34.9 965 26.0 3,159 32.1 1,350 22.2 1,810 40.5 374 (4.1) 1,436 59.9 390 27.2 1,046 60.1 FY11 3,221 46.8 897 (7.0) 4,118 30.3 1,705 26.3 2,413 33.3 646 72.8 1,767 23.1 500 28.3 1,267 21.2 FY12E 3,881 20.5 897 0.1 4,778 16.0 1,821 6.8 2,957 22.6 1,083 67.6 1,875 6.1 562 30.0 1,312 3.6 FY13E 4,323 11.4 950 5.9 5,273 10.4 2,094 15.0 3,179 7.5 1,412 30.4 1,767 (5.7) 573 32.4 1,194 (9.0)
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY07 485 2,671 41,454 22.2 734 480 1,717 47,541 2,949 1,075 14,301 27,889 26.2 192 1,135 47,541 16.9 FY08 485 2,764 19.3 591 1,115 2,201 4,902 793 FY09 485 3,162 20.1 1,311 2,040 2,081 4,853 434 FY10 485 3,925 77,688 30.8 2,832 3,020 2,392 6,699 4,469 20,881 56,114 27.1 356 1,825 31.9 FY11 560 5,933 18.6 4,620 3,020 2,612 7,184 3,275 24,204 71,435 27.3 317 2,485 20.5 FY12E 560 6,920 18.0 5,442 3,503 3,107 7,068 3,207 FY13E 560 7,821 16.0 6,301 3,959 3,753 8,199 3,713
49,437 59,390
56,592 68,469
14,898 16,911 34,238 44,139 22.8 219 1,542 19.0 28.9 335 1,796 21.0
31,845 39,190 82,865 93,637 16.0 363 2,927 17.8 13.0 407 3,389 15.8
56,592 68,469
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 3.2 0.5 2.7 0.1 2.8 1.1 3.9 2.1 1.8 0.6 1.2 14.6 17.8 2.6 0.3 2.3 0.2 2.5 1.0 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.7 1.1 16.3 18.0 2.6 0.6 2.0 0.4 2.3 0.9 3.2 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.0 18.1 18.9 2.8 0.5 2.3 0.4 2.7 0.8 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.3 19.7 26.0 3.2 0.6 2.6 0.1 2.7 0.8 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.3 18.3 23.2 3.3 0.9 2.4 0.1 2.5 0.7 3.1 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.1 17.0 18.8 3.1 1.0 2.1 0.1 2.2 0.6 2.8 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.9 17.5 15.1 10.3 1.8 3.3 9.7 1.7 3.5 8.5 1.5 3.9 5.3 1.3 4.4 5.1 1.0 4.8 4.9 0.9 4.4 5.4 0.8 3.9 11.1 65.1 3.8 11.9 67.0 4.0 13.5 75.2 4.5 21.6 90.9 5.0 22.6 116.0 5.5 23.4 127.3 5.0 21.3 139.8 4.5 1.4 0.2 1.1 0.2 88.1 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 85.6 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.3 78.5 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 91.6 1.4 0.4 1.4 0.5 83.9 3.2 1.5 3.5 0.7 65.0 5.0 2.1 3.3 0.9 65.0 34.5 67.3 11.3 10.0 33.6 69.3 11.6 8.5 31.4 74.3 13.2 8.7 29.4 72.2 13.9 8.2 29.1 77.5 14.4 9.7 28.4 76.2 14.2 9.4 28.3 74.2 13.8 9.1 3.3 48.1 1.2 17.8 2.7 46.2 1.1 18.0 2.7 46.2 1.0 18.9 2.8 42.7 1.3 26.0 3.3 41.4 1.3 23.2 3.4 38.1 1.1 18.8 3.2 39.7 0.9 15.1 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Andhra Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11