2012 Economic Outlook (State of Utah)

E C O N O M I C
O U T L O O K
Utah Governors Office of Planning and Budget
E C O N O M I C
O U T L O O K
2012
Excerpts
State of Utah
Governor Gary R. Herbert
Economic Outlook
Overview of the EconomyUtah typically grows

more rapidly than the nation after recessions, and this
pattern is taking hold in the current recovery. For the
U.S., employment grew 0.9% in 2011, compared to
2.3% for Utah. While employment increased during
2011, Utahs unemployment rate improved, falling to
7.7%. Though housing stabilized, with building permits
at 8,700 in 2011, home-building is not leading the economy as it does during a typical recovery.
Outlook 2012Economic growth in Utah is expected
to accelerate during 2012. Employment is forecast to
increase 2.7% for the year as a whole, with larger increases as the year progresses. Housing permits are
forecast to move up slightly from historic lows. As the
overall unemployment rate declines to 6.7%, the improving labor market will support increased consumer
spending and a strengthening recovery.
Utah Economic Indicators: 2010-2012

1.9
1.5
1.6
Population
-0.6
Nonfarm Employment
Utah 2010
Utah 2011e
Utah 2012f
2.3
2.7
Unemployment Rate
6.7
8.0
7.7
2.0
2.5
3.2
Average Pay
-5.7
Home Prices
-3.5
1.0
-2.1
Retail Sales
-8
-6
-4
4.8
-2
5.9
6
10
Source: Council of Economic Advisors Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate f = forecast
Highlights
ConstructionThe value of permit authorized construction in Utah in 2011 was estimated at $3.5 billion, slightly higher than the $3.3 billion in
2010. In inflation-adjusted dollars, the value of authorized construction last year was at the lowest level since 1992. The 6% increase in 2011 reverses four consecutive years of decline. In constant 2011 dollars all three major construction sectors improved in 2011. Residential value was up
4.1%, nonresidential value was up 18.9% and additions, alterations and repairs were up 4.2%. Its quite likely the value of permit authorized construction hit bottom in 2010, and 2011 was the beginning of a modest recovery. The number of permits issued for residential units should increase
by 14.9% in 2012 to 10,000 units with a construction value of $2.0 billion. On the nonresidential side, the value of permit authorized nonresidential
construction is projected to remain at $1.1 billion in 2012.
TourismUtahs travel and tourism sector had a positive year in an economically uncertain 2011. The Utah ski industry experienced the second
best season on record with 4,233,064 skier days. During 2011, for the sixth year in a row, national park visitation was up from the previous year as
of November 2011. State park visitation was up an estimated 1.3% with visitation of 4.8 million in 2011.
ExportsImproving economic conditions in Utah, the nation, and around the globe were reflected in Utahs production and export levels through
2010 and 2011. Utahs total exports rose from $13.8 billion in 2010 to an estimated $19.0 billion in 2011, an increase of 37.9%. Exports have been
above $4.0 billion since 2005. Assuming moderate worldwide economic growth and barring any significant collapse in gold value or another financial crises, exports are forecast to grow to $22 billion in 2012.
EnergyFor the most part, the energy sector in Utah continued to rebound after experiencing significant recession-related declines in 2009 and
2010. Crude oil production continues to rise as oil prices remain high, while natural gas production hit a new record in 2011 despite modest gas
prices. Demand for electricity in Utah remains strong, but lack of demand in the out-of-state markets contributed to declines in Utahs electric
generation and resulted in decreases in consumption of coal and natural gas at Utah power plants. Early indications are that 2012 will continue on
the path of slow and cautious growth, keeping the energy sector a bright spot in Utahs recovering economy.
MineralsThe Utah Geological Survey (UGS) estimates the gross production value of nonfuel mineral commodities and uranium produced in
Utah in 2011 totaled $4.59 billion, an increase of about $302 million (7.0%) over 2010. The estimated nominal value of nonfuel mineral production
(excluding uranium) in Utah was $4.56 billion in 2011. The relative stability in production and price for most non-fuel mineral commodities predicted for 2012 suggests that the overall value will not change significantly compared to the previous year.
Rankings
Demographic
Population Growth Rate
Fertility Rate
Life Expectancy
Median Age
Household Size
Social Indicators
Violent Crime
Poverty Rate
Educational Attainment
State
Rank
3rd
1st
3rd
1st
1st
Value
Year
1.9%
2.60
78.7 years
29.2 years
3.10 persons
2011
2008
2000
2010
2010
6th 212.7 per 100,000 people

3rd
9.1%
7th
90.6% of persons 25+
w/ high school degree
2009
2008-2010
2010
Governors Office of Planning and Budget
Economic
Rate of Job Growth
Unemployment Rate
Urban Status
Median Household Income
Average Annual Pay
Per Capita Personal Income
State Rank
Value
Year
4th
11th
9th
8th
37th
46th
2.5%
6.4%
88.3%
$59,857
$37,980
$32,473
Nov. 2011
Nov. 2011
2000
2008-2010
2008
2010
Notes: 1. Rankings are based on the most current national data available for all states, and may differ
from other data.
2. Rank is most favorable to least favorable.
January 2012
www.governor.utah.gov/dea
January 12, 2012
Employment and Wages
EmploymentTotal Nonfarm employment increased by

27,000 jobs (2.3%) in 2011 and is expected to increase 32,800
jobs (2.7%) in 2012.
UnemploymentUtah's 2011 unemployment rate was
7.7%, down from 8.0% in 2010. In 2011, there were an average of 106,900 unemployed Utahns. The unemployment rate
is anticipated to decline to 6.7% in 2012.
Average WageIn 2011, Utah's average annual nonfarm
wage was $39,811, an increase of 2.5% from 2010. The average annual wage is forecast to increase 3.2% in 2012.
Total Nonfarm Employment (2012f)
Change (2011-2012)
Percent Change (2011-2012)
Unemployment (2012)
1,241,300
32,800
2.7%
6.7%
Total Nonfarm Wages (2012f)

$51.0 billion
6.0%
Average Annual Wage (2012f)

$41,070
3.2%
Total Personal Income (2012f)

$99.4 billion
4.7%
Per Capita Personal Income (2012f)

f = fo recast
Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry

2.7%
2.3%
Total Nonfarm Jobs
6.1%
Mining
10.1%
4.0%
Construction
0.7%
2.6%
2.0%
Manufacturing
1.6%
2.0%
T rade, Trans., Utilities
2.7%
Information
0.8%
2.5%
Financial Activity
1.2%
5.3%
Professional & Business Services
3.5%
3.1%
3.3%
2.3%
3.0%
2.4%
Education & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
1.1%
1.7%
1.6%
Government
0%
$38,129
5.7%
2%
4%
6%
2011e
8%
10%
12%
2012f
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services e = estimate f = forecast
Demographics
2011 Census Bureau National and State Population EstimatesAt the

Utah United States
end of December 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau released the first population
2010
Census
Population
2,763,885
308,745,538
estimates following the 2010 Census. The total July 1, 2011 population esti2,817,222
311,591,917
mate for the United States was 311,591,917. This represents a population 2011 Population Estimate
increase of 2,846,379 people or 0.9% from 2010. This is the slowest national 2010-2011 Percent Change
1.9%
0.9%
growth since the 1940s. Utahs 2011 total population estimate was 2,817,222. 2010-2011 Absolute Change
53,337
2,846,379
This represents a population increase of 53,337 people or 1.9% from 2010,
ranking Utah third among states and the District of Columbia in population Source: U.S. Census Bureau
growth. Utah grew more than twice as fast as the nation from 2010 to 2011.
Rate of GrowthThe majority of states that experienced
Population Growth Rates: 2010-2011
the highest growth rates from
NH
2000 to 2010 are located in the
0.1%
ME
WA
West and South regions of the
VT
MA
-0.01%
1.6%
ND
0.1%
0.6%
United States. The top ten
MT
MN
1.7%
0.9%
states or equivalent with the
0.8%
NY
OR
highest growth rates include:
RI
0.4%
1.1%
WI
SD
ID
MI
-0.1%
0.4%
District of Columbia (2.7%),
1.2%
1.1%
WY
-0.1%
PA
CT
Texas (2.1%), Utah (1.9%),
IA
0.8%
0.3%
0.2%
0.5%
NE
OH
Alaska (1.8%), Colorado
NJ
IL
0.9%
IN
0.1%
(1.7%), North Dakota (1.7%),
NV
UT
WV VA
0.3%
0.3% 0.5%
0.8%
1.9%
0.1%
CO
Washington (1.6%), Arizona
MO
1.2%
KS
DE
KY
1.7%
CA
0.4%
1.0%
0.7%
0.6%
(1.4%), Florida (1.4%), and
1.2%
NC 1.3%
Georgia (1.3%).
TN 0.9%
SC
OK
MD
AR
AZ
2012 OutlookUtah will conDC
1.2%
NM
1.1%
0.9%
0.8%
1.4%
2.7%
1.1%
tinue to experience population
GA
MS
AL
1.3%
0.4% 0.5%
growth at a rate higher than
TX
most states in 2012 on account
LA
2.1%
0.9%
of strong natural increase in
FL
addition to in-migration. Natu1.4%
ral increase (births less deaths)
2.0% or more
AK
is anticipated to add 39,000
1.4% to 1.9%
1.8%
people to Utahs population.
5% to 15%
While net in-migration has
0% to 5%
HI
U.S. Rate = 9.7%
slowed since the peak of the
1.1%
Population Loss
economic expansion, Utahs net
migration is projected to reSource: U.S. Census Bureau
main positive at 5,000 people.
Governors Office of Planning and Budget
January 2012
www.governor.utah.gov/dea
January 12, 2012
E C O N O M I C
O U T L O O K
Utah Governors Office of Planning and Budget

Utah State Capitol
350 N. State Street, Suite 150
Salt Lake City, Utah 84114
ii
Preface
The 2012 Economic Outlook is the second publication in what is
an annual companion piece to the Economic Report to the Governor series, which is now published in the fall. Through the
last two decades, the Economic Report to the Governor has served
as the preeminent source for data, research, and analysis
about the Utah economy. The Economic Outlook will focus on
an estimated summary of the previous year and a forecast for
the forthcoming year.
for the most recent year or period available. There may be a

quarter or more of lag time before economic data become
final, therefore 2011 estimates and 2012 forecasts in this report are based on data available as of mid-December 2011.
All of the data in this report are subject to error arising from
a variety of factors, including sampling variability, reporting
errors, incomplete coverage, non-response, imputations, and
processing error. If there are questions about the sources,
limitations, and appropriate use of the data included in this
report, the relevant entity should be contacted.
The primary goal of the report is to improve the readers understanding of the Utah economy. With improved economic
literacy, decision makers in the public and private sector will
be able to plan, budget, and make policy decisions with an
awareness of how their actions are both influenced by and
impact economic activity.
Statistics for States and Counties. This report focuses on

data for the state, with occasional data for county geographies. For information about data for a different level of
geography than shown in this report, the contributing entity
should be contacted.
Collaborative Effort/Contributors. Authors, who represent both public and private entities, devote a significant
amount of time to this report, ensuring that it contains the
latest economic and demographic information. While this
report is a collaborative effort which results in a consensus
outlook for the next year, each topic is the work of the contributing organization, with review and comment by the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget. More detailed information about the findings in each chapter can be obtained by
contacting the authoring entity.
Electronic Access. This report is available on the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget's web site at http://
www.governor.utah.gov/dea.
Suggestions and Comments. Users of the Economic Outlook
are encouraged to write or call with suggestions that will improve future editions. Suggestions and comments for improving the coverage and presentation of data and quality of
research and analysis should be sent to the Governor's Office
of Planning and Budget, PO Box 142210, Salt Lake City,
Utah 84114-2210. The telephone number is (801) 538-1027
and the email address is dea@utah.gov.
Statistics Used in This Report. The statistical contents of

this report come from a multitude of sources which are listed
at the bottom of each table and figure. Statistics are generally
2012 Economic Outlook
UT
Preface
iii
iv
Content
Figures & Tables ...................................................................................................................................................................................vii
Contributors ...............................................................................................................................................................................................ix
Map of Utah ...............................................................................................................................................................................................xi
Economic Indicators for Utah and the United States...................................................................................................xiii
Economic Outlook
National Outlook.....................................................................................................................................................................................1
Utah Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................................................7
Economic Indicators...........................................................................................................................................................................13
Industry Focus ........................................................................................................................................................................................31
UT
Content
vi
Figures & Tables

Figures
Tables
National Outlook
1. Growth Rate of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product ...... 1
2. U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment.................................. 2
3. Debt as a Percent of GDP in the U.S. by Sector ............ 3
4. U.S. States Housing Shortages and Surpluses.................. 4
5. Capital Shortages at European Banks by Country .......... 5
National Outlook
1. U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment by Sector ................ 6
Economic Indicators
2. National and State Census Estimates.............................. 15
3. Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry ...................... 18
4. Utah Population, Labor Force, Jobs, and Wages .......... 19
5. Personal and Per Capita Income ..................................... 21
6. Utah Taxable Sales by Component ................................. 23
7. Cash Collections Unrestricted Revenue ......................... 27
8. Cash Collections Unrestricted Revenue % Change ...... 27
9. Utah Merchandise Exports by Industry ......................... 29
10. Utah Merchandise Exports by Purchasing Country ..... 30
Utah Outlook
6. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in Utah ............................ 7
7. Employment Growth Rates in Utah and the U.S............ 8
8. Housing Starts in Utah, Seasonally Adjusted ................... 9
9. Home Sales in Utah............................................................. 9
10. Median Home Prices in Utah...........................................10
11. Coincident Index for Utah and the U.S..........................11
12. Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll Employment ....12
Industry Focus
11. Residential and Nonresidential Construction ................ 32
12. Summary of Construction Activity.................................. 33
13. Electric Generation in Utah: 2011................................... 34
14. Production, Consumption, Select Prices for Energy .... 35
Economic Indicators
13. Percent Change in Population for States........................13
14. Percent Change from Previous Census: Utah & U.S....14
15. Utah Total Population.......................................................14
16. Utah Unemployment Rate................................................16
17. Year-Over Monthly Percent Change in Jobs .................17
18. Annual Change Utah Nonfarm Employment................17
19. Utah Per Capita Income as Percent of U.S....................20
20. Change in Taxable Sales by Major Sector.......................22
21. Inflation-Adjusted Change in Revenue...........................25
22. Actual and Inflation-Adjusted Revenue Surplus ...........25
23. Composition of the General and Education Fund .......26
24. Utah Merchandise Exports...............................................28
Industry Focus
25. Utah Residential Construction Activity ..........................31
26. Value of New Construction .............................................33
27. Value of Utahs Nonfuel Mineral Production................36
28. Total Utah Skier Visits ......................................................37
UT
Figures & Tables
vii
viii
Contributors
Utah State Tax Commission
210 North 1950 West
Salt Lake City, UT 84134-3310
(801) 297-3900
http://tax.utah.gov
Andre Baksh, Economist
Matthew Lund, Economist
Governor's Office of Planning and Budget

State Capitol Complex
350 North State Street, Suite 150
(801) 538-1027
http://governor.utah.gov/gopb
Ron Bigelow, Director
Juliette Tennert, Deputy Director
Jacob Belk, Research Analyst
Peter Donner, Senior Economist
Effie Johnson, Research Analyst
Aaron Phipps, Research Analyst
David Stringfellow, Senior Economist
Department of Workforce Services

140 East 300 South
Salt Lake City, UT 84111
(801) 526-9458
http://jobs.utah.gov
Mark Knold, Chief Economist
Governor's Office of Economic Development

324 South State Street, Suite 500
Salt Lake City, Utah 84111
(801) 538-8700
http://travel.utah.gov
Jim Buchanan, Tourism Research Coordinator
Department of Natural ResourcesUtah Geological Survey

1594 West North Temple, Suite 3110
(801) 537-3300
http://geology.utah.gov
Mark Gwynn, Geologist
Michael Vanden Berg, Geologist
University of Utah
Bureau of Economic and Business Research
1645 East Campus Center Drive, Room 401
(801) 581-6333
http://www.business.utah.edu/bebr
James Wood, Director
Cover Photo courtesy of Effie Johnson
UT
Contributors
ix
Map of Utah
Bear River
Rich
Cache
Box Elder
Weber
Morgan
Davis
Daggett
Summit
Salt Lake
Wasatch Front
Wasatch
Tooele
Utah
Duchesne
Uintah Basin
Mountainland
Juab
Carbon
Central
Sanpete
Emery
Millard
Piute
Iron
Wayne
Garfield
Southwestern
Washington
Grand
Southeastern
Sevier
Beaver
Uintah
San Juan
Kane
UT
Map of Utah
xi
xii
Economic Indicators for Utah and the United States: December 2011
2009
2010
2011
2012
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
UNITS
ACTUAL
ACTUAL
ESTIMATE FORECAST
PRODUCTION AND SPENDING
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product
Billion Chained $2005
12,703.1
13,088.0
13,308.0
13,491.4
U.S. Real Personal Consumption
9,037.5
9,220.9
9,414.4
9,594.6
U.S. Real Private Fixed Investment
1,606.4
1,648.4
1,757.2
1,832.3
U.S. Real Federal Defense Spending
695.6
718.3
704.1
680.6
U.S. Real Exports
1,494.0
1,663.2
1,774.9
1,835.5
Utah Exports (NAICS, Census)
Million Dollars
10,337.0
13,809.0
19,049.0
22,000.0
Utah Coal Production
Million Tons
21.9
19.4
19.6
20.0
Utah Crude Oil Production
Million Barrels
22.9
24.7
25.7
26.0
Utah Natural Gas Production Sales
Billion Cubic Feet
405.6
387.7
410.6
415.0
Utah Copper Mined Production
Million Pounds
619.8
566.4
581.6
578.8
Utah Molybdenum Production
Million Pounds
23.1
28.4
30.5
29.2
SALES AND CONSTRUCTION
U.S. New Auto and Truck Sales
Millions
10.4
11.6
12.5
13.2
U.S. Housing Starts
Millions
0.55
0.58
0.59
0.67
U.S. Private Residential Investment
Billion Dollars
354.6
338.1
335.3
354.0
U.S. Nonresidential Structures
Billion Dollars
449.9
374.4
412.0
409.4
U.S. Home Price Index (FHFA)
1980Q1 = 100
344.4
332.3
314.9
301.5
U.S. Nontaxable & Taxable Retail Sales
Billion Dollars
4,093.2
4,354.3
4,659.8
4,815.8
Utah New Auto and Truck Sales
Thousands
66.2
69.1
76.2
86.0
Utah Dwelling Unit Permits
Thousands
10.5
9.3
8.7
10.0
Utah Residential Permit Value
Million Dollars
1,674.0
1,667.0
1,735.0
2,000.0
Utah Nonresidential Permit Value
Million Dollars
1,054.3
925.1
1,100.0
1,100.0
Utah Additions, Alterations and Repairs
Million Dollars
660.1
672.0
700.0
700.0
Utah Home Price Index (FHFA)
1980Q1 = 100
345.2
325.4
314.1
317.2
Utah Taxable Retail Sales
Million Dollars
25,600
25,061
26,255
27,804
DEMOGRAPHICS AND SENTIMENT
U.S. July 1st Population
Millions
306.8
309.3
311.6
314.6
U.S. Consumer Sentiment (U of M)
Diffusion Index
66.3
71.8
66.9
68.8
Utah July 1st Population (UPEC)
Thousands
2,723.4
2,775.5
2,817.2
2,861.2
Utah Net Migration (UPEC)
Thousands
3.7
0.8
3.5
5.0
PROFITS AND RESOURCE PRICES
U.S. Corporate Before Tax Profits
Billion Dollars
1,455.7
1,819.5
1,886.4
2,012.5
U.S. Corporate Profit [above less Fed. Res.]
Billion Dollars
1,408.4
1,747.9
1,810.5
1,945.7
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil
$ Per Barrel
61.7
79.4
90.6
93.6
U.S. Coal Producer Price Index
1982 = 100
182.1
189.3
205.8
212.3
Utah Coal Prices
$ Per Short Ton
28.4
30.8
35.5
37.5
Utah Oil Prices
$ Per Barrel
50.2
68.1
83.0
85.0
Utah Natural Gas Prices
$ Per MCF
3.38
4.23
3.90
3.85
Utah Copper Prices
$ Per Pound
2.34
3.49
3.80
3.25
Utah Molybdenum Prices
$ Per Pound
11.5
15.9
15.5
14.5
INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES
U.S. CPI Urban Consumers (BLS)
1982-84 = 100
214.5
218.1
224.7
227.6
U.S. GDP Chained Price Index (BEA)
2005 = 100
109.7
111.0
113.4
115.0
U.S. Federal Funds Rate (FRB)
Effective Rate
0.16
0.18
0.11
0.10
U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bills (FRB)
Discount Rate
0.15
0.14
0.06
0.06
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes (FRB)
Yield (% )
3.26
3.21
2.76
2.32
30 Year Mortgage Rate (FHLMC)
Percent
5.04
4.69
4.43
4.03
EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
U.S. Establishment Employment (BLS)
Millions
130.8
129.8
131.1
132.6
U.S. Average Annual Pay (BLS)
Dollars
47,943
49,362
50,606
51,605
U.S. Total Wages & Salaries (BLS)
Billion Dollars
6,270.4
6,408.2
6,635.9
6,844.4
Utah Nonagricultural Employment (DWS)
Thousands
1,188.7
1,181.5
1,208.5
1,241.3
Utah Average Annual Pay (DWS)
Dollars
38,059
38,828
39,811
41,070
Utah Total Nonagriculture Wages (DWS)
Million Dollars
45,242
45,876
48,111
50,980
INCOME AND UNEMPLOYMENT
U.S. Personal Income (BEA)
Billion Dollars
12,168
12,530
13,157
13,567
U.S. Unemployment Rate (BLS)
Percent
9.3
9.6
9.0
9.0
Utah Personal Income (BEA)
Million Dollars
87,947
90,090
94,955
99,418
Utah Unemployment Rate (DWS)
Percent
7.1
8.0
7.7
6.7
Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody's Economy.Com, and IHS Global Insight.
UT
PERECENT CHANGE
2010
2011
2012
3.0
2.0
2.6
3.3
11.3
33.6
-11.5
7.5
-4.4
-8.6
23.0
1.7
2.1
6.6
-2.0
6.7
37.9
1.0
4.2
5.9
2.7
7.1
1.4
1.9
4.3
-3.3
3.4
15.5
2.0
1.2
1.1
-0.5
-4.3
11.1
5.6
-4.7
-16.8
-3.5
6.4
4.4
-11.3
-0.4
-12.3
1.8
-5.7
-2.1
8.4
0.4
-0.8
10.0
-5.2
7.0
10.2
-6.5
4.1
18.9
4.2
-3.5
4.8
5.4
13.3
5.6
-0.6
-4.3
3.3
12.9
14.9
15.3
0.0
0.0
1.0
5.9
0.8
8.4
1.9
0.7
-6.9
1.5
1.0
3.0
1.6
25.0
24.1
28.7
3.9
8.3
35.6
25.1
49.1
37.9
3.7
3.6
14.0
8.8
15.4
21.9
-7.8
8.9
-2.5
6.7
7.5
3.4
3.1
5.6
2.4
-1.3
-14.5
-6.5
1.6
1.2
3.0
2.2
1.3
1.4
-0.7
3.0
2.2
-0.6
2.0
1.4
1.0
2.5
3.6
2.3
2.5
4.9
1.1
2.0
3.1
2.7
3.2
6.0
3.0
5.0
3.1
2.4
5.4
4.7
Economic Indicators
xiii
xiv
National Outlook
the debt limit included just $2.5 trillion of 10 year deficit reduction measures, instead of $4 trillion, Standard and Poor's
(S&P) downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+ in early August. The S&P downgrade, combined with rising concerns
over Europe's ability to manage its debt crisis, led stock prices
lower during August. With Japanese production resuming,
lower oil prices, better weather, and a working agreement in
Congress allowing the federal government to operate, employment growth picked up after September and GDP grew
1.8% for the year as a whole, finishing the fourth quarter at
3.4%.
Overview
After beginning a promising recovery in the second half of
2009, the U.S. economy has since moved forward unevenly.
A number of short term events combined to slow growth
beginning in the first half of 2011. Extremely bad weather,
an oil price spike to above $100 per barrel, and the Japanese
earthquake generated a broad disruption of business activity
in the U.S. The prolonged debt ceiling debate in Congress
and subsequent downgrade by Standard and Poor's (S&P),
combined with concern about European debt, led stock
prices lower during August. These continuing headwinds
cumulatively created a pronounced deceleration of growth
early in 2011. With events settling, the U.S. economy resumed modest growth as the year ended.
Employment grew 1.0% in 2011, or 1.3 million jobs, barely

enough to lower the unemployment rate, which fell from
9.6% to 9.0%. Mining had the highest rate of job growth,
11.3%, as a jump in energy prices lead to increased exploration and production. Administrative support, which includes
temporary help, increased 3.9%, or by almost 300,000 jobs, as
firms shied away from permanent hires to meet increased
demand. Reflecting the split nature of the labor market
where workers with specific technical skills find jobs quickly,
professional, scientific and technical employment grew 2.7%,
or 200,000. Within the broad sector, computer systems and
technical consulting both grew more than 5%, while employment at law offices was flat. Health care grew 2.2%, or
350,000, as demand for medical services continues relatively
unaffected by the slow economy. Increasing sales and the
need to ship goods boosted transportation employment by
2.0%, or 85,000. Increasing sales also boosted wholesale and
retail employment by 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively, a total of
220,000. Briskly growing demand for U.S. made merchandise
2011 Summary
As 2011 opened, the recovery appeared to be pausing. After
rising nearly 4% for several quarters, GDP growth slowed to
2.5% in the second half of 2010. High oil prices and bad
weather combined to lower growth to just 0.4% during the
first quarter of 2011. Unprecedented flooding in the Mississippi Basin, savage tornados in Alabama and Missouri, combined with the Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster combined to hold growth to 1.0% in the second quarter.
The nuclear disaster disrupted Japanese production and U.S.
supply chains, cutting automotive production and sales during
spring and early summer. The highly partisan debate to raise
the U.S. debt ceiling consumed the month of July, with an
agreement reached just hours before the Treasury began extraordinary measures to manage the federal government's
cash flow. Because the final bill passed by Congress to raise
Figure 1
Growth Rate of United States Real Gross Domestic Product
1.4%
2012q3f
2.2%
1.2%
2012q2f
2.0%
1.8%
2011q3e
3.4%
1.3%
2011q2
0.4%
2.3%
2010q4
3.8%
2010q2
2.5%
3.9%
2010q1
2010q3
3.8%
2009q4
1.7%
1.3%
2%
1.7%
4%
3.0%
6%
3.6%
8%
-6.7%
-10%
2009q1
-8.9%
-8%
-6.7%
-6%
2008q4
-4%
-3.7%
-1.8%
-2%
-0.7%
0%
2012q4f
2012q1f
2011q4f
2011q1
2009q3
2009q2
2008q3
2008q2
2008q1
2007q4
2007q3
2007q2
2007q1
-12%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Global Insight e = estimate f = forecast
UT
National Outlook
Figure 2
United States Nonfarm Payroll Employment
140
135
130
125
120
2012f
2011e
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
115
1995
Millions of Jobs
overseas, and steadily increasing

domestic
consumer
spending on big ticket items
such as cars and home appliances supported manufacturing employment growth of
1.7%, almost 200,000 jobs.
With the wind-down of the
2010 Census and postal service restructuring, federal
government had the largest
rate of job decline at -4.6%,
or almost 140,000 jobs. Continuing budget difficulties
lead to a decline of -1.4%, or
over 280,000, in state and
local employment. The continuing real estate slump led
to a decline of -0.2%, or
10,000, in construction employment.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Global Insight f = forecast

Significant Issues
Nature of Recovery
home purchases. Nonetheless, the problem with the enorKen Rogoff, of Harvard University, argues the recovery was
mous amount of leverage in the financial sector is if the origibound to be sub-par because it followed a financial crisis.
nal debt goes bad, as began with sub-prime mortgages in
Comparing credit booms and subsequent banking panics,
2006, a chain reaction is initiated, as when Lehman Brothers
Rogoff found in the typical crisis the unemployment rate rises
failed in September 2008, which engulfs the non-financial
seven percentage points for five years. Stock values fall 56%
sectors of the economy in a deep recession.
for 3 years while home prices fall 35% for 6 years. The
problem is the boom preceding the bust is driven by a buildDuring boom periods, the most recent of which was between
up of debt, particularly consumer debt for housing. Business
2005 and 2007, high risk borrowers overextend themselves
debt for commercial real estate and, to a lesser extent, for
and cannot make debt service without additional credit or
plant and equipment to increase productive capacity, also
asset sales. At the peak, lenders begin to withdraw credit to
increases. Speculators finance most of their asset trading with
the riskiest and most indebted borrowers. Lending slows,
increased debt. The combined effect is a massive increase in
asset sales accelerate, their prices fall, and, as income from
spending across all sectors which is not sustainable.
asset sales is insufficient to meet debt service, borrowers begin to default. The increase in bad debt makes it difficult for
Debt in the U.S. is at historically high levels. As a percent of
businesses to finance activities. As investors begin to doubt
GDP, home mortgage debt peaked at 75% in 2007, and has
the creditworthiness of the business sector, a general panic
since declined to 65%, as foreclosures extinguish bad loans
takes hold, as the U.S. experienced during the fall of 2008.
and households pay down their mortgages. About 80% of
Sales decline as consumers and business owners become
the increase in debt during the 2000s was from mortgage eqmore cautious. The decline in commercial activity and cash
uity extraction (MEW) used to finance consumer spending.
flow forces businesses to cut costs through lay-offs. Once
Since the financial crisis, MEW has essentially ended, which
the financial sector is shored up, as happened during the first
has contributed to the decline in mortgage debt. Business
half of 2009 in the U.S., markets stabilize, uncertainty is redebt, which includes both non-financial corporations and
duced, and recovery begins. The expansion, however, is
millions of non-financial small businesses, peaked at 78% of
hampered by lower income and higher debt. Many borrowers
GDP in 2008 and has since declined to 75%. Debt in the
find themselves owing more than their assets are worth. The
financial sector, over half of which is from the government
high burden of debt service reduces purchases of new goods
sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
and services, which dampens the growth of sales, production,
peaked at 120% of GDP in 2008 and has since declined to
income, and employment. There is currently a robust debate
88%. However, the financial sector is an intermediary that
among economists about the proper policy following a finanincurs debt to purchase assets, such as mortgages, which are
cial crisis, but there is general agreement that the recovery will
the debt of another sector, such as households. Including the
be weaker than normal.
debt of GSE's as a claim to be paid from GDP would be double counting, since the original debt is for mortgage financed
National Outlook
UT
During the typical recession, households and businesses put

off unnecessary spending until the economic outlook becomes more certain. Households stop buying durable goods
such as cars and home appliances. The demand for new
housing also falls off as people decide to stay in their existing
residences or move in with friends or family. Businesses
stock less inventory and invest less in plant and equipment.
Once the recession ends and the outlook becomes positive,
there is a pronounced increase in all types of spending. As
spending increases, GDP grows rapidly and a strong recovery
sets in. Employment lags GDP a few quarters, but eventually
job growth accelerates, labor force participation increases and
the unemployment rate falls. The current recovery is abnormally muted because the amount of debt owed by households
and businesses is unprecedented. Reducing this debt burden
to typical levels will take several years. During this period of
deleveraging, consumer spending will be depressed, which
will put a drag on business investment and hiring.
Most forecasters anticipate housing starts will remain near

record lows throughout 2012, though construction should
pick up as the year progresses. Household formation is currently running about 1 million per year. If the labor market
was operating at normal levels of employment, perhaps as
many as 200,000 more households would be forming. Given
the present demographic situation, the housing stock would
return to a normal level if no houses were built for two years.
Despite this glut, there will always be a certain portion of
households that want to live in new homes. This underlying
demand for the most up-to-date living space will keep construction in the 600,000 unit range. As the economy improves, household formation will pick up and the housing
surplus will decline.
The U.S. Census reported 116.7 million households in the
2010 count. If demographics in 2010 were the same as 2000,
the age structure of the population would have generated
119.1 million households. In other words, there were 2.4
million fewer households in 2010 than would have been expected given people's behavior a decade earlier. The recession and dim income prospects for people in their 20s explain
most of the absence of these 2.4 million households, and the
consequent surplus of 2 million units.
Housing
Housing construction is particularly depressed in the current
recovery. The main reason, as Rogoff notes, is the type of
financial crisis the U.S. experienced during 2008 is typically
preceded by a real estate boom. The current situation is historically unprecedented. Given the number of households in
America, the housing stock has a surplus of 2 million units
over and above what is required to house people and have a
normal amount of vacant housing. The slow economy and
high unemployment rate make the situation worse by lowering the amount of household formation that would normally
occur.
European Debt
Many parts of Europe experienced the same type of credit
boom as the U.S. during the mid-2000s, the subsequent financial crisis in 2008, and ensuing weak recovery. Europe is different because its economic policy making is divided between
the European Central Bank (ECB), which conducts a unified
monetary policy for all countries using the Euro, and individ-
Figure 3
Debt as a Percent of GDP in the United States by Borrowing Sector
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Residential Mortgage
Consumer
Business
Government
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
1947
1945
0%
Finance
Source: Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis
UT
National Outlook
ual national governments, which conduct separate fiscal policies based on unique public finance systems.
In December, the European Banking Authority (EBA) reported the continents largest banks were short 115 billion in
capital. The shortage was calculated using a required capital
ratio, or equity as a percent of assets, equal to 9%. Spains
Banco Santander had the biggest shortage, 15.3 billion, followed by Italys Unicredit, at 7.9 billion. In total, Spanish
banks were short 26.2 billion, followed by Italian banks at
15.4 billion. The banks have until June 2012 to meet the 9%
requirement, which they will do using a combination of equity raises, asset sales, and lower asset purchases.
Since the financial crisis of 2008, the Euro-system has been

especially difficult for countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and recently, Italy. The Greek national government, in particular, cannot pay the debt it accumulated during
the boom. Since early 2010, Greece has been funded with a
rescue package from the European Union (EU), lead by Germany and France, the ECB and the International Monetary
Fund (IMF). In exchange for the rescue, Greece has implemented a plan to balance its budget, but the short term effect
of the spending cuts and tax increases has crippled demand
and driven the economy into recession. Greece's original
debt was provided by a combination of local and international banks. French and German banks were particularly
large lenders to Greece, and were owed, respectively, $53
billion and $36 billion, by Greek institutions, including banks
and the national government, as of March 31, 2011. Because
of the recession and the large amounts of government debt it
holds, the Greek financial system is widely viewed as near
failure.
The general outline of the EBAs results became known during the fall of 2011, prompting investor concerns that large
countries such as Spain and Italy would have difficulty with
funding. In a vicious cycle, investors required higher returns
to justify the perception of increased risk, which in turn increased the likelihood of default. Yields on 10 year Italian
government bonds rose from around 4.7% in early 2011 to a
peak of 7.3% in November, before dropping toward 6.0% in
early December.
As Italys situation worsened, the failure of a German bond
auction in November alarmed financial markets and policymakers. Over the summer and fall several auctions occurred
where the amount of debt offered exceeded the amount sold
by small margins, but 35% of the November offer did not
have bids. The main reason was the yield was lower than
investors perception of the risk. An additional hurdle was
the EBAs capital order. The easiest way to increase the equity ratio is to reduce asset purchases, such as German bonds.
This conflict between the
need to issue debt and the
need to strengthen banks is
one example of the Eurosystems problem.
The possibility of Greek default caused the large FrancoBelgian bank, Dexia, to collapse. Investors supplying its
short-term funding felt it was too exposed to the Eurosystems troubled nations. Unable to meet its obligations, the
bank was seized by the French and Belgian national governments in October 2011.
Figure 4
United States Housing Shortages and Surpluses
4
Millions of Units
-1
-2
1960 1963 1967 1971 1975 1978 1982 1986 1990 1993 1997 2001 2005 2008 2012f
Briefly unable to borrow

on normal terms, Germany
moved with France to develop tighter fiscal coordination for the 17 nations
using the Euro. As the
respective national governments within the Eurosystem prepared a comprehensive approach to their
finances, especially debt,
the ECB indicated it would
be willing to take a more
aggressive approach to
reduce borrowing costs.
Once policy-makers created a coherent framework
for action, combining supervision of national government budgets with ECB
Source: Governors Office of Planning and Budget f = forecast
National Outlook
UT
purchases of Italian,
Spanish, and other debt,
yields dropped and financial markets began to stabilize.
Having lent Europe over
$2 trillion, U.S. banks face
challenges as the crisis
continues. The collapse
of MF Global, a $40 billion Wall Street trading
firm, in October 2011 was
the direct result of its
creditors concerns it had
too much European exposure. While this probably will be an isolated
event, the failure of
Europe to resolve its debt
clouds the outlook.
Figure 5
Capital Shortages at Large European Banks by Country
Spain
Italy
Germany
France
Portugal
Belgium
Austria
Cyprus
Norway
Slovenia
Netherlands
0
4
2012 Outlook
The consensus outlook
for the U.S. economy is
Source: European Banking Authority
slow but accelerating
growth during 2012. Excess debt both at home and abroad will continue to dampen
the recovery. U.S. households have made significant progress
improving their balance sheets, which will continue as the
labor market advances. With better finances, consumers will
spend more, businesses will produce and hire more, and a
strengthening recovery will set in. Household formation will
increase and the excess supply of housing will continue to
decline. The major risk to the outlook is Europe. A deep
recession there will slow U.S. growth dramatically, perhaps
even causing a second recession. Assuming European policymakers prevent another financial crisis, the U.S. economy will
continue to recover with accelerating growth.
Employment is expected to grow 1.1% for the year as a

whole in 2012, though this will accelerate to 1.6% in the
fourth quarter, keeping the unemployment rate at 9.0%. Administrative support, which includes temporary help, is expected to have the fastest rate of growth 3.9%, or 300,000
jobs, as firms continue to shy away from permanent hires to
meet increased demand. The pickup in sales and attendant
need to ship goods will boost transportation and warehousing
jobs by 3.2%, or 135,000. Likewise, better sales are expected
to increase wholesale and retail employment 2.0% and 1.6%,
respectively, for a total of 340,000 new jobs. Health care is
estimated to grow 2.7%, or 450,000, as demand for medical
services continues despite weakness in other sectors of the
economy. With the recovery gaining traction, travel and tourism will begin to rebound, driving employment in accommodation and food services and recreation up an estimated 2.4%
UT
12
16
20
24
28
Billions of Euros
and 1.8%, respectively, or 500,000 jobs. The end of federal

stimulus for infrastructure spending, business caution on new
plant and equipment, and near record low housing starts are
forecast to lower construction employment 2.1%, a loss of
almost 120,000 jobs. Tight budgets are predicted to reduce
employment in federal and state and local government, 2.5%
and 1.0%, respectively, a combined loss of over 270,000 jobs.
Conclusion
After a massive build-up of debt during the 2000s, the required deleveraging is producing a muted recovery from the
financial crisis of 2008. The Japanese earthquake, high oil
prices, and bad weather were strong headwinds slowing
growth during the first half of 2011. The protracted debt
ceiling debate, S&P downgrade, and European debt crisis sent
stock prices and consumer confidence lower in August. With
events settling, growth will accelerate, hiring will pick up, and
the recovery will move toward a more typical expansion.
National Outlook
Table 1
United States Nonfarm Payroll Employment by Sector
2000
Natural Resources & Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Technical
Management of Companies
Administrative Support
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services
State & Local
Federal
Total
599
601
6,788
17,265
5,933
15,279
4,412
3,630
5,677
2,011
6,702
1,796
8,173
2,391
12,718
1,786
10,074
5,168
17,925
2,865
Thousands of Jobs
Level
Amount
Rate
2010 2011e
2012f 2000-10 2010-11 2011-12 2000-10 2010-11 2011-12
706
552
5,527
11,527
5,456
14,420
4,182
2,711
5,692
1,940
7,423
1,863
7,394
3,147
16,415
1,907
11,111
5,365
19,520
2,967
785
552
5,517
11,722
5,535
14,559
4,267
2,670
5,668
1,943
7,621
1,885
7,685
3,222
16,771
1,897
11,315
5,448
19,237
2,829
796
545
5,400
11,885
5,644
14,790
4,402
2,667
5,676
1,968
7,728
1,909
7,984
3,237
17,224
1,942
11,548
5,489
19,038
2,759
11
-5
-126
-574
-48
-86
-23
-92
2
-7
72
7
-78
76
370
12
104
20
159
10
80
0
-10
195
80
139
85
-40
-24
3
198
23
291
74
356
-9
204
83
-283
-138
11
-7
-117
163
108
232
135
-3
8
25
107
24
299
15
453
45
234
41
-199
-71
1.6%
-0.9%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-2.9%
0.0%
-0.4%
1.0%
0.4%
-1.0%
2.8%
2.6%
0.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.9%
0.4%
11.3%
0.0%
-0.2%
1.7%
1.5%
1.0%
2.0%
-1.5%
-0.4%
0.2%
2.7%
1.2%
3.9%
2.4%
2.2%
-0.5%
1.8%
1.5%
-1.4%
-4.6%
1.4%
-1.2%
-2.1%
1.4%
2.0%
1.6%
3.2%
-0.1%
0.1%
1.3%
1.4%
1.3%
3.9%
0.5%
2.7%
2.4%
2.1%
0.7%
-1.0%
-2.5%
131,794 129,822 131,128 132,630
-197
1,306
1,502
-0.2%
1.0%
1.1%
e = estimate
f = forecast
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Global Insight
National Outlook
UT
Utah Outlook
sectors of the Utah economy, none of which had declining
employment during 2011. Mining, which includes oil and gas
production, had the fastest growth rate, 10.1%, driven by
continuing high energy prices. Professional and business
services had the second fastest growth rate, 3.5%, or 5,300
jobs, which reflects strong underlying growth throughout the
economy. While the office support component of the sector
had strong growth, the high-paying technical services component also advanced strongly, which may have a strong impact
on income growth and sales as the recovery continues. Education and health grew 3.3%, or 5,200 jobs. Leisure and hospitality, which includes tourism as well as local demand for
dining and entertainment, grew 3.0%, or 3,300 jobs.
Overview
Utah typically grows more rapidly than the nation after recessions, and this pattern is taking hold in the current recovery.
While the expansion is gaining strength, the downturn that
began in 2008 continues to influence economic growth in
every state of the U.S., as well as every country on earth.
Some areas, such as Utah, are faring better than others, but
the international dimensions of the financial system affect
every household, business, and government. A moderate,
strengthening recovery is the most likely outcome, but policymakers around the globe must remain vigilant to prevent
local difficulties in places such as Greece from spreading and
causing a second recession. The financial situation in Europe
is widely viewed as the biggest threat to global growth during
2012. Current efforts by European policy-makers seem likely
to succeed, which bodes well for the U.S. recovery. Assuming the national expansion continues, Utah's growth will accelerate above the pace of the past two years.
Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of

economic activity, grew 1.7% in 2010. After declining 1.5%
in 2009, GDP is on track to grow almost 3% in 2011. These
results are in real terms, after inflation has been removed, so
they represent the physical production of goods and services.
In nominal terms, including the effects of inflation, GDP
grew 2.9% during 2010, which includes 1.7% real growth and
1.2% inflation. Because GDP is only produced annually and
will not be available for 2011 until summer 2012, personal
income, which is available quarterly for the current year, is
often used in its place. During 2011, Utah personal income
increased 5.4%, and total wages, its largest component, in-
2011 Summary
For the year ending October 2011, Utah employment grew
2.6%, or 32,000 jobs. For the year as a whole employment
grew 2.3%, or 27,000 jobs, from 1.18 million to 1.21 million.
As of October, the unemployment rate was 7.0%, down from
7.6% a year earlier and almost two percentage points lower
than the U.S. The improving situation has spread across all
Figure 6
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in Utah
1,300
1,250
1,200
Thousands of Jobs
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f
e = estimate f = forecast
Source: Department of Workforce Services, Governors Office of Planning and Budget and Revenue Assumptions Working Group
UT
Utah Outlook
creased 4.9%. These figures are in nominal terms. In real

terms, excluding inflation, personal income increased 3.2%
and wages increased 2.7%.
homebuyer credit expired. With growing employment,

household income and formation, sales should gradually
move above the 2,500 level during 2012.
Significant Issues
Housing
Though unprecedented, by some measures the housing slump
in Utah has not been as severe as it was in the nation. Nationally, housing starts are at record lows, but in Utah the
current rate of construction is almost 40% above the bottom
reached in 1989. While Utah housing starts are well above
record lows, the peak to trough decline is similar to the nation. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate, Utah housing starts
peaked at 27,000 in November 2005, but have since declined
68% to 6,800, as compared to a decline of 73% for the U.S.
Reflecting the decline in sales, home prices have also declined. The median home price in Utah, as reported by the
Utah Association of Realtors (UAR), declined from a peak of
almost $220,000 in May 2007, to just above $170,000 in August 2011, or more than 20%, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The UAR prices are for all homes, both existing and newly
constructed. Moody's Analytics reports the median price of
existing homes in Utah declined from $204,000 in the 3rd
quarter of 2007 to $144,000 in 2nd quarter 2011, or almost
30%. The main reason existing home prices have declined
more rapidly than total is that distressed properties are selling
at deep discounts, while newly constructed homes have maintained their value.
Like the nation, home sales in Utah have been declining since
the housing crash began in 2006. From an average above
4,000 per month at the peak, sales declined to around 2,500 in
August 2011, or almost 40%, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The federal homebuyer credit, combined with Utah's Home
Run program, lifted sales to almost 3,000 per month during
the summer of 2010. Most observers feel these housing credits provided a needed psychological lift during the depths of
the recession, but the main affect was to accelerate home
purchases from late 2010 and early 2011 into late 2009 and
early 2010. This acceleration and subsequent slowdown is
evidenced by the decline of home sales to around 2,300 per
month, in September 2010, just after the second federal
Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

Organized research on economic indexes initially began with
the work of Wesley Mitchell in the early 1900s. Mitchell
helped found the National Bureau of Economic Research in
1920, and, with Arthur Burns, developed a program to measure business cycles. One product of their effort was the indexes of leading and coincident indicators still in use today.
These indexes, reported monthly by the Conference Board,
are in much the same form as originally constructed by Burns
and Mitchell. The idea behind the coincident index is that no
Figure 7
Employment Growth Rates in Utah and the United States
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Utah
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Department of Workforce Services; Revenue Assumptions Work Group; Global Insight
Utah Outlook
UT
Figure 8
Housing Starts in Utah, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-06
Jul-09
Jan-07
Jan-05
Jan-09
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-95
Jul-05
Jan-94
Jan-93
Jan-92
The Federal Reserve Bank

of Philadelphia (FRBP) has
recently constructed coincident and leading indexes
for the U.S. and the 50
states. The FRBP indexes Source: Moodys Analytics
are reported monthly a few
weeks after month's end.
The value of the FRBP indexes is that they are timely and
allow a consistent comparison of current conditions and expected performance six-months ahead between the 50 states
and the U.S. The coincident index takes the value 100 for
each state during 1992, while the leading index predicts the
six-month growth rate in the coincident index.
Jan-91
Jan-90
Jan-89
Jan-88
Jan-87
Jan-86
Jan-85
Jan-84
Jan-83
Jan-82
Source: Moodys Analytics
one economic indicator,

whether GDP, employment, sales, production or
income, accurately reflects
the true "state of the economy." The coincident index is designed to combine
information from a number of indicators that coincide with the peaks,
troughs, expansions and
recessions of the business
cycle. The leading index is
designed to predict economic performance six
months ahead.
Figure 9
Home Sales in Utah
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Actual
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Seasonally Adjusted
The FRBP coincident index for Utah peaked at 198 in December, 2007, indicating the size of the economy had almost
doubled since 1992. The coincident index for the U.S.
peaked at 160 in January 2008, indicating the economy had
grown 60% since 1992. Consistent with indicators such as
GDP, personal income, employment and population, the
UT
Utah Outlook
3.2% in October 2011, the most current reading, for Utah,

and reached a maximum of 2.2% in May 2010 for the U.S.
Looking back to the beginning of the recession in December
2007, the behavior of the leading index gave a reasonably
accurate view of how the economies of both Utah and the
U.S. would evolve over the next six months. The readings
from fall 2011 suggest the economy will continue to grow,
more rapidly in Utah than the U.S.
FRBP coincident index demonstrates Utah grew much faster

than the U.S. over the last two decades. After peaking near
the beginning of 2008, the coincident indexes declined
sharply for both Utah and the U.S., troughing at 178 in January 2010 and 147 in December 2009, respectively. These
dates are about six months later than the official end of the
recession in June 2009. Since troughing near the end of 2009,
the indexes have slowly but steadily increased, to 186 for
Utah and 154 for the U.S., as of October 2011.
2012 Outlook
As usual, Utah is coming out of the recession more quickly
than the nation as a whole. The year over employment
growth rate in October 2011 was 2.6% in Utah, more than
twice the U.S. rate of 1.2%. The current expectation is that
Utah's recovery will continue stronger than the nation's. The
strong and accelerating growth of late 2011 will continue into
2012. Employment in Utah will grow 2.7%, as compared to
1.1% for the U.S. The level of employment will increase to
1.24 million, more than 30,000 above 2011. Total wages will
grow 6.0%, while personal income grows 4.7%. Because of
low interest rates and a flattening in government support
payments, personal income will grow more slowly than
wages. Average wages will grow 3.2% which combined with
CPI growth of 1.3% will boost real pay 1.9%.
After peaking at 4.2% in December 2005, the FRBP leading

index for Utah turned negative in November 2007, suggesting
a recession would begin six months later in April 2008. The
leading index for the U.S. did not turn negative until March
2008, despite the fact the coincident index began to decline in
January, two months earlier. The leading indexes reached
minimums during the current business cycle of -5.4% in November 2008 for Utah, and -3.9% in March 2009 for the U.S.
The interpretation is that the economy would reach its maximum rate of decline in May 2009, for Utah, and August 2009
for the U.S. The coincident index reached a maximum decline of -4.9% for Utah, and -4.5% for the U.S., both in April
2009. The leading index turned positive in December 2009
for Utah and September 2009 for the U.S. Since turning
positive, the index has trended up reaching a maximum of
Figure 10
Median Home Prices in Utah
230,000
220,000
210,000
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
Actual
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
130,000
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Utah Association of Realtors and Governors Office of Planning and Budget
10
Utah Outlook
UT
Employment in all sectors will grow during 2012, as the unemployment rate declines from 7.7% in 2011 to 6.7%. Mining will again lead the way, growing 6.1% on continued energy production. With a number of large projects ramping
up, construction employment will advance 4.0%, which will
make it the fastest growing sector. Professional and business
services will rank second in growth rate, at 5.3%, but the increase of over 8,000 jobs will make it the leading source of
employment. Temporary workers are a large component of
the 8,000, but the high-paying technical services component
will also post strong gains. The long-term trend has been as
the nation grows wealthier, the demand for medical services
increases as a share of the economy. This trend will make
education and health care the second largest source of jobs,
4,900, with a growth rate of 3.1%. As shipping and sales continue to expand, employment in trade, transportation and
utilities will grow 2.0%, or 3,700 jobs. Brighter spirits will
boost tourism, spurring leisure and hospitality employment
up 2.3%, or 2,600 jobs. As economic activity picks up, tax

revenue will follow, easing state and local budgets. The improving situation will create 3,800 jobs in government, mostly
teachers, police officers, and fire-fighters.
Conclusion
Utah will come out of the recession more rapidly than the
U.S., as has been the case with every downturn over the past
60 years. Year-over job growth in the state was close to 3.0%
at the end of summer 2011, but is expected to taper down to
2.7% in 2012. While Utah historically has stronger recoveries
than the nation, its economy is still driven by national and
global trends. If policy-makers allow difficulties in Europe or
elsewhere to spin out of control, the state will suffer. Assuming the nation continues a moderate but strengthening recovery, Utah's economy will expand at a stronger rate than experienced since the expansion began in summer 2009.
Figure 11
Coincident Index for Utah and the United States
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Utah
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
U.S.
Source: Federal Reserve
UT
Utah Outlook
11
Figure 12
Leading Index for Utah and the United States
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Utah
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
-10%
U.S.
Source: Federal Reserve
12
Utah Outlook
UT
Economic Indicators
regions of the United States. The top ten states or equivalent
with the highest growth rates include: District of Columbia
(2.7%), Texas (2.1%), Utah (1.9%), Alaska (1.8%), Colorado
(1.7%), North Dakota (1.7%), Washington (1.6%), Arizona
(1.4%), Florida (1.4%), and Georgia (1.3%). This is the first
time D.C. has had the fastest growth rate since the early
1940s. Nevada, the fastest growing state from 2000 and 2010
censuses, ranked only 27th in population growth between
April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2011, increasing by 0.8%.
Demographics
2011 Census Bureau National and State Population Estimates
At the end of December 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau released the first population estimates following the 2010 Census. The total July 1, 2011 population estimate for the United
States was 311,591,917. This represents a population increase
of 2,846,379 people or 0.9% from 2010. This is the slowest
national growth since the 1940s. Utahs 2011 total population
estimate was 2,817,222. This represents a population increase
of 53,337 people or 1.9% from 2010, ranking Utah third
among states and the District of Columbia in population
growth. Utah grew more than twice as fast as the nation
from 2010 to 2011.
2012 Outlook
Utah will continue to experience population growth at a rate
higher than most states in 2012 on account of strong natural
increase in addition to in-migration. Natural increase (births
less deaths) is anticipated to add 39,000 people to Utahs
population. While net in-migration has slowed since the peak
of the economic expansion, Utahs net migration is projected
to remain positive at 5,000 people.
The majority of states that experienced the highest growth

rates from 2000 to 2010 are located in the West and South
Figure 13
Percent Change in Population for States: 2010 to 2011
NH
0.1%
WA
1.6%
ND
1.7%
MT
0.9%
OR
1.1%
ID
1.1%
NV
0.8%
UT
1.9%
CA
1.2%
AZ
1.4%
WY
0.8%
MN
0.8%
IL
IN
0.3% 0.5%
MO
0.4%
OK
1.1%
NM
1.1%
MI
-0.1%
IA
0.5%
KS
0.6%
AR
0.8%
MA
0.6%
OH
0.1%
CT
0.2%
NJ
0.3%
WV VA
0.1%
1.2%
NC 1.3%
SC
1.2%
TN 0.9%
AL
0.5%
RI
-0.1%
PA
0.3%
KY
0.7%
MS
0.4%
TX
2.1%
ME
-0.01%
NY
0.4%
WI
0.4%
SD
1.2%
NE
0.9%
CO
1.7%
VT
0.1%
GA
1.3%
DE
1.0%
DC
2.7%
MD
0.9%
LA
0.9%
FL
1.4%
2.0% or more
AK
1.8%
1.4% to 1.9%
5% to 15%
HI
1.1%
0% to 5%
U.S. Rate = 9.7%
Population Loss
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
UT
Economic Indicators
13
Figure 14
Percent Change from Previous Census: Utah and the United States
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
Utah
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Figure 15
Utah Total Population
3,000,000
2,763,885
2,500,000
2,233,169
2,000,000
1,722,850
1,461,037
1,500,000
1,059,273
1,000,000
890,627
688,862
500,000
373,351
86,786
143,963
210,779
550,310
449,396 507,847
276,749
0
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
14
Economic Indicators
UT
Table 2
U.S. Census Bureau National and State Census Counts: 2010 and 2011
Area
April 1, 2010
Population
2010
Rank
July 1, 2011
Population
2011
Rank
2010-2011
Change
2010-2011
% Change
Rank
Based on
% Change
U.S.
308,745,538
na
311,591,917
na
2,846,379
0.9%
na
Region
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
55,317,240
66,927,001
114,555,744
71,945,553
4
3
1
2
55,521,598
67,158,835
116,046,736
72,864,748
4
3
1
2
204,358
231,834
1,490,992
919,195
0.4%
0.3%
1.3%
1.3%
3
4
1
2
4,779,736
710,231
6,392,017
2,915,918
37,253,956
5,029,196
3,574,097
897,934
601,723
18,801,310
9,687,653
1,360,301
1,567,582
12,830,632
6,483,802
3,046,355
2,853,118
4,339,367
4,533,372
1,328,361
5,773,552
6,547,629
9,883,640
5,303,925
2,967,297
5,988,927
989,415
1,826,341
2,700,551
1,316,470
8,791,894
2,059,179
19,378,102
9,535,483
672,591
11,536,504
3,751,351
3,831,074
12,702,379
1,052,567
4,625,364
814,180
6,346,105
25,145,561
2,763,885
625,741
8,001,024
6,724,540
1,852,994
5,686,986
563,626
23
47
16
32
1
22
29
45
50
4
9
40
39
5
15
30
33
26
25
41
19
14
8
21
31
18
44
38
35
42
11
36
3
10
48
7
28
27
6
43
24
46
17
2
34
49
12
13
37
20
51
4,802,740
722,718
6,482,505
2,937,979
37,691,912
5,116,796
3,580,709
907,135
617,996
19,057,542
9,815,210
1,374,810
1,584,985
12,869,257
6,516,922
3,062,309
2,871,238
4,369,356
4,574,836
1,328,188
5,828,289
6,587,536
9,876,187
5,344,861
2,978,512
6,010,688
998,199
1,842,641
2,723,322
1,318,194
8,821,155
2,082,224
19,465,197
9,656,401
683,932
11,544,951
3,791,508
3,871,859
12,742,886
1,051,302
4,679,230
824,082
6,403,353
25,674,681
2,817,222
626,431
8,096,604
6,830,038
1,855,364
5,711,767
568,158
23
47
16
32
1
22
29
45
50
4
9
40
39
5
15
30
33
26
25
41
19
14
8
21
31
18
44
38
35
42
11
36
3
10
48
7
28
27
6
43
24
46
17
2
34
49
12
13
37
20
51
23,004
12,487
90,488
22,061
437,956
87,600
6,612
9,201
16,273
256,232
127,557
14,509
17,403
38,625
33,120
15,954
18,120
29,989
41,464
-173
54,737
39,907
-7,453
40,936
11,215
21,761
8,784
16,300
22,771
1,724
29,261
23,045
87,095
120,918
11,341
8,447
40,157
40,785
40,507
-1,265
53,866
9,902
57,248
529,120
53,337
690
95,580
105,498
2,370
24,781
4,532
0.5%
1.8%
1.4%
0.8%
1.2%
1.7%
0.2%
1.0%
2.7%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
1.1%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
0.0%
0.9%
0.6%
-0.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.1%
0.3%
1.1%
0.4%
1.3%
1.7%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
0.3%
-0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
0.9%
2.1%
1.9%
0.1%
1.2%
1.6%
0.1%
0.4%
0.8%
36
4
8
30
14
5
44
21
1
9
10
19
17
43
35
34
32
31
23
49
22
33
50
29
39
40
26
25
27
45
41
16
37
11
6
48
18
20
42
51
15
12
24
2
3
47
13
7
46
38
28
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinios
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
UT
Economic Indicators
15
slowly. Utah and Davis counties are making the strongest

rebound with employment growth over 4.0%. Gains in Salt
Lake County are a bit more tempered, up 2.0%, but a bigger
employment base requires larger numeric gains to match Utah
and Davis county growth percentages. The rural counties are
showing more delay in economic growth from the changing
economy, with employment up in some counties, down in
others.
Employment, Wages, and Labor Force

Utahs economy has been on the mend throughout 2011.
Several economic variables support this view, the most
prominent being employment growth just below 3.0% at the
end of 2011. Most indicators are pointing to a continuation
of economic growth into 2012. It would probably take a
strong negative national setback to throw this trend off
course.
2012 Outlook
The Utah employment situation is expected to improve during 2012. Employment growth for the year is forecast to be
2.7%. This is an acceleration above the 2.3% employment
growth rate for 2011. A boost from the construction and
housing industries would be welcomed to help foster this
growth higher, but any significant lift from those industries is
not anticipated for 2012. The estimated employment growth
for 2012 would bring Utah employment levels just shy of
their pre-recession peak in 2007. Labor force growth that
occurred across that interval would still need to be employed,
thus the unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated at
6.7%.
Utahs current employment growth is largely being driven by

positive demographic factors. Labor force-age population
grew by approximately 110,000 since the recession began in
late 2007 and Utahs overall payroll employment count was
down 40,000 during the same time. The disparity between
labor-force growth and payroll-employment contraction generates commerce that leads to employment growth. Utah was
near the top in state-rankings of percentage employment
growth at the end of 2011.
Utahs major metropolitan areas are leading in the growth,
even the hard-hit St. George area is expanding again, although
Figure 16
Utah Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Utah
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
0%
United States
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Economic Indicators
UT
Figure 17
Year-Over Monthly Change In Utah Nonfarm Jobs
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Utah
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
U.S.
Figure 18
Annual Change Utah Nonfarm Employment
10%
8%
3.2% Average
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-6%
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f
-4%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
UT
Economic Indicators
17
Table 3
Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry and Unemployment Rate
Year
Total Payroll Employment

Percent Absolute Unemployment
Number Change
Change
Rate
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
189,153
207,386
214,409
217,194
211,864
224,007
236,225
240,577
240,816
251,940
263,307
272,355
286,382
293,758
293,576
300,164
317,771
326,953
335,527
348,612
357,435
369,836
387,271
415,641
434,793
441,082
463,658
489,580
526,400
549,242
551,889
559,184
3.1
9.6
3.4
1.3
-2.5
5.7
5.5
1.8
0.1
4.6
4.5
3.4
5.2
2.6
-0.1
2.2
5.9
2.9
2.6
3.9
2.5
3.5
4.7
7.3
4.6
1.4
5.1
5.6
7.5
4.3
0.5
1.3
5,653
18,233
7,023
2,785
-5,330
12,143
12,218
4,352
239
11,124
11,367
9,048
14,027
7,376
-182
6,588
17,607
9,182
8,574
13,085
8,823
12,401
17,435
28,370
19,152
6,289
22,576
25,922
36,820
22,842
2,647
7,295
Year
5.5
3.3
3.2
3.3
5.2
4.1
3.4
3.7
5.3
4.6
4.8
5.3
4.9
5.4
6.0
6.1
4.9
5.2
5.4
5.2
6.1
6.6
6.3
5.8
6.1
6.5
5.7
5.3
3.8
4.3
6.3
6.7
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
Total Payroll Employment

Percent Absolute Unemployment
Number Change
Change
Rate
560,981
566,991
601,068
624,387
634,138
640,298
660,075
691,244
723,629
745,202
768,602
809,731
859,626
907,886
954,183
993,999
1,023,480
1,048,498
1,074,879
1,081,685
1,073,746
1,074,131
1,104,328
1,148,320
1,203,914
1,251,282
1,252,470
1,188,736
1,181,519
1,208,500
1,241,300
0.3
1.1
6.0
3.9
1.6
1.0
3.1
4.7
4.7
3.0
3.2
5.4
6.2
5.6
5.1
4.2
3.0
2.4
2.5
0.6
-0.7
0.0
2.8
4.0
4.8
3.9
0.1
-5.1
-0.6
2.3
2.7
1,797
6,010
34,077
23,319
9,751
6,160
19,777
31,169
32,385
21,573
23,488
41,129
49,895
48,260
46,297
39,816
29,461
25,018
26,381
6,806
-7,939
385
30,197
43,992
55,594
47,368
1,188
-63,734
-7,217
26,981
32,800
7.8
9.2
6.5
5.9
6.0
6.4
4.9
4.6
4.3
5.0
5.0
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.1
3.8
3.7
3.4
4.4
5.7
5.7
5.2
4.3
2.9
2.7
3.7
7.1
8.0
7.7
6.7
e = estimate
f = forecast
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Workforce Information
18
Economic Indicators
UT
UT
Economic Indicators
19
228,827
1,023,643
81.7%
Goods-producing
Service-producing
Percent Svc.-producing
85,492
Establishments (first quarter)
83,263
$45,242
$38,059
$3,172
-4.4
194,060
994,676
83.7%
1,188,736
10,694
70,492
112,874
234,097
29,558
71,075
149,517
150,874
110,852
34,024
214,679
1,383,202
1,285,134
98,068
7.1
9.3
2009
80,419
$45,876
$38,828
$3,236
-0.7
186,759
994,760
84.2%
1,181,519
10,442
65,237
111,080
229,128
29,268
67,998
152,374
155,019
110,675
33,630
216,668
1,378,900
1,268,000
110,900
8.0
9.6
2010
80,600
$48,111
$39,811
$3,318
1.0
190,500
1,018,000
84.2%
1,208,500
11,500
65,700
113,300
233,600
29,500
68,800
157,700
160,200
114,000
34,000
220,200
1,380,900
1,274,000
106,900
7.7
9.0
2011e
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Workforce Information
2012f
82,800
$50,980
$41,070
$3,422
1.1
196,700
1,044,600
84.2%
1,241,300
12,200
68,300
116,200
237,300
30,300
70,500
166,000
165,100
116,600
34,800
224,000
1,395,735
1,302,617
93,118
6.7
9.0
Note: Numbers in this table may differ from other tables as not all industrial sectors are listed here.
e = estimate
f = forecast
$46,913
$37,456
$3,121
Total Nonfarm Wages (millions)

Average Annual Wage
Average Monthly Wage
-0.6
1,252,470
12,506
90,469
125,852
247,978
30,747
74,050
162,194
146,617
114,813
35,534
211,710
Total Nonfarm Jobs

Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Information
Financial Activity
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth %
1,368,182
1,317,082
51,100
3.7
5.8
Civilian Labor Force

Employed Persons
Unemployed Persons
Unemployment Rate
U.S. Rate
2008
Table 4
Utah Population, Labor Force, Nonfarm Jobs and Wages
-3.6
1.6
1.6
-15.2
-2.8
-5.1
-14.5
-22.1
-10.3
-5.6
-3.9
-4.0
-7.8
2.9
-3.4
-4.2
1.4
1.1
-2.4
91.9
1.4
2.0
2.0
-3.8
0.0
-0.6
-2.4
-7.5
-1.6
-2.1
-1.0
-4.3
1.9
2.7
-0.2
-1.2
0.9
-0.3
-1.3
13.1
4.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.3
2.3
10.1
0.7
2.0
2.0
0.8
1.2
3.5
3.3
3.0
1.1
1.6
0.1
0.5
-3.6
6.0
3.2
3.2
3.3
2.6
2.7
6.1
4.0
2.6
1.6
2.7
2.5
5.3
3.1
2.3
2.4
1.7
1.1
2.2
-12.9
Annual Percent Change

2009
2010
2011e
2012f
crease in 2010. The 2011 increase in personal income was led

by strong wage growth, 4.9%. All sources of income except
interest income were positive in 2011.
Personal Income
Overview
Total personal income (TPI) is the sum of all individual personal income in a given region. There are three components
of TPI: 1) earnings by place of work; 2) income from dividends, interest and rent (DIR); and, 3) income from transfer
payments, such as social security, welfare and pensions. The
largest component of TPI is typically earnings by place of
work, which consists of the total earnings from farm and
nonfarm industries including contributions for social insurance. Per capita income (PCI) is a regions total personal
income divided by its total population. Personal income and
per capita earnings data are reported quarterly by the U.S.
Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Moving into 2012 as the economy continues to recover, Utah

personal income is expected to increase by 4.7%, 1.6% above
the anticipated U.S. increase. Strong wage growth (6%) and
continued growth in proprietorship income (4.3%) is expected in 2012. Income from interest is forecast to fall 1.16%,
as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at low levels
through 2012. Growth in rental income is expected to slow,
with only 1.3% growth, as the housing market starts to recover and renting starts to become less attractive. Continued
growth in dividend income (9.7%) and transfer payments
(3.3%) is expected in 2012. Per capita personal income is
forecast to increase 5.7% in 2012.
2012 Outlook
Utah's total personal income is expected to increase by 5.4%
in 2011, much stronger growth compared to the 2.4% in-
Figure 19
Utah Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the United States
80.3%
79.2%
81.0%
80.1%
80.8%
80.5%
80.1%
79.2%
82.0%
81.5%
81.0%
80.9%
81.9%
81.4%
81.4%
80.7%
79.7%
78.1%
78.8%
83.8%
76%
77.6%
76.3%
78%
76.7%
80%
75.8%
78.4%
81.5%
82%
80.3%
83.5%
82.4%
83.6%
84%
83.4%
84.2%
86%
85.9%
88%
74%
72%
70%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012f
Note: Vertical axis does not begin at zero f = forecast
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Governors Office of Planning and Budget
20
Economic Indicators
UT
Table 5
Personal and Per Capita Income
Total Personal Income
Per Capita Personal Income
(Dollars)
Year
Utah
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
$1,827,251
1,951,550
2,131,718
2,215,267
2,327,175
2,463,814
2,617,442
2,764,340
2,975,393
3,251,099
3,611,237
4,016,049
4,505,225
5,044,791
5,680,307
6,383,606
7,322,002
8,350,739
9,624,760
11,033,558
12,505,546
14,164,852
15,509,675
16,755,896
18,447,506
19,592,700
20,489,507
21,231,293
22,235,719
23,782,174
25,703,869
27,549,134
29,635,837
31,978,241
34,847,778
37,795,185
41,150,761
44,517,564
48,057,488
50,554,948
55,024,962
58,503,761
59,873,183
61,484,844
65,452,597
71,529,976
78,378,401
85,116,065
88,901,329
87,947,247
90,090,080
94,954,944
99,417,827
Annual Growth Rates
Utah as %
United States
of U.S.
$408,128,000
425,625,000
453,003,000
475,971,000
510,348,000
551,193,000
598,480,000
641,974,000
704,759,000
772,084,000
832,238,000
897,559,000
987,073,000
1,105,426,000
1,217,673,000
1,329,714,000
1,469,355,000
1,626,621,000
1,830,836,000
2,052,037,000
2,292,903,000
2,572,070,000
2,757,048,000
2,941,857,000
3,256,048,000
3,482,520,000
3,683,091,000
3,909,771,000
4,216,123,000
4,541,996,000
4,831,282,000
5,013,484,000
5,335,268,000
5,558,374,000
5,866,796,000
6,194,245,000
6,584,404,000
6,994,388,000
7,519,327,000
7,906,131,000
8,554,866,000
8,878,830,000
9,054,702,000
9,369,072,000
9,928,790,000
10,476,669,000
11,256,516,000
11,899,853,000
12,379,745,000
12,168,161,000
12,530,101,184
13,156,606,243
13,567,232,733
0.45%
0.46%
0.47%
0.47%
0.46%
0.45%
0.44%
0.43%
0.42%
0.42%
0.43%
0.45%
0.46%
0.46%
0.47%
0.48%
0.50%
0.51%
0.53%
0.54%
0.55%
0.55%
0.56%
0.57%
0.57%
0.56%
0.56%
0.54%
0.53%
0.52%
0.53%
0.55%
0.56%
0.58%
0.59%
0.61%
0.62%
0.64%
0.64%
0.64%
0.64%
0.66%
0.66%
0.66%
0.66%
0.68%
0.70%
0.72%
0.72%
0.72%
0.72%
0.72%
0.73%
Utah United States
6.8%
9.2%
3.9%
5.1%
5.9%
6.2%
5.6%
7.6%
9.3%
11.1%
11.2%
12.2%
12.0%
12.6%
12.4%
14.7%
14.0%
15.3%
14.6%
13.3%
13.3%
9.5%
8.0%
10.1%
6.2%
4.6%
3.6%
4.7%
7.0%
8.1%
7.2%
7.6%
7.9%
9.0%
8.5%
8.9%
8.2%
8.0%
5.2%
8.8%
6.3%
2.3%
2.7%
6.5%
9.3%
9.6%
8.6%
4.4%
-1.1%
2.4%
5.4%
4.7%
4.3%
6.4%
5.1%
7.2%
8.0%
8.6%
7.3%
9.8%
9.6%
7.8%
7.8%
10.0%
12.0%
10.2%
9.2%
10.5%
10.7%
12.6%
12.1%
11.7%
12.2%
7.2%
6.7%
10.7%
7.0%
5.8%
6.2%
7.8%
7.7%
6.4%
3.8%
6.4%
4.2%
5.5%
5.6%
6.3%
6.2%
7.5%
5.1%
8.2%
3.8%
2.0%
3.5%
6.0%
5.5%
7.4%
5.7%
4.0%
-1.7%
3.0%
5.0%
3.1%
(Dollars)
Utah United States
$2,030
2,085
2,225
2,274
2,380
2,479
2,594
2,713
2,892
3,105
3,389
3,649
3,971
4,316
4,738
5,173
5,755
6,344
7,055
7,792
8,492
9,347
9,953
10,506
11,371
11,926
12,322
12,652
13,162
13,941
14,847
15,479
16,135
16,845
17,775
18,765
19,899
21,001
22,188
22,943
24,517
25,534
25,647
25,835
26,837
28,616
30,335
31,953
32,596
30,758
32,595
36,073
38,129
$2,268
2,326
2,439
2,526
2,671
2,849
3,061
3,253
3,536
3,836
4,084
4,340
4,717
5,230
5,708
6,172
6,754
7,402
8,243
9,138
10,091
11,209
11,901
12,583
13,807
14,637
15,338
16,137
17,244
18,402
19,354
19,818
20,799
21,385
22,297
23,262
24,442
25,654
27,258
28,333
30,318
31,145
31,461
32,271
33,881
35,424
37,698
39,458
40,673
38,845
40,584
43,039
44,383
Utah as %
of U.S.
89.5%
89.6%
91.2%
90.0%
89.1%
87.0%
84.7%
83.4%
81.8%
80.9%
83.0%
84.1%
84.2%
82.5%
83.0%
83.8%
85.2%
85.7%
85.6%
85.3%
84.2%
83.4%
83.6%
83.5%
82.4%
81.5%
80.3%
78.4%
76.3%
75.8%
76.7%
78.1%
77.6%
78.8%
79.7%
80.7%
81.4%
81.9%
81.4%
81.0%
80.9%
82.0%
81.5%
80.1%
79.2%
80.8%
80.5%
81.0%
80.1%
79.2%
80.3%
83.8%
85.9%
e = estimate
f = forecast
Sources:
1. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
2. Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group
UT
Economic Indicators
21
Taxable services were estimated at $6.8 billion for 2011, representing 14.5% of all taxable salesan 8.8% increase over
2010.
Utah Taxable Sales

Overview
Taxable sales are comprised of three major components: retail trade, business investments and utility taxable sales, and
taxable services. In 2011, total taxable sales in Utah increased
by 5.6% to an estimated $46.8 billion. After three years of
decline in taxable sales, 2011 was the first year of positive
change.
2012 Outlook
Total taxable sales are expected to increase by 4.3% to $48.8
billion, from $46.8 billion between 2011and 2012. Retail
trade is projected to grow by 5.9% in 2012. Business investment and utility taxable sales is expected to grow another
2.3% in 2012. Taxable services are expected to increase by
3.2% in 2012. The economy is expected to continue on a
slow path to recovery as the credit market becomes less and
less tight and both investor and consumer confidence continues to grow.
Retail trade taxable sales were an estimated $26.3 billion in

2011, representing 56.1% of taxable sales. This is a 4.8%
increase from 2010. Business investment and utility taxable
sales were an estimated $12.6 billion in 2011, representing
26.9% of taxable sales. This is an increase of 7.7% over 2010.
Figure 20
Change in Taxable Sales by Major Sector
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Retail Sales
Source: Utah State Tax Commission
22
Economic Indicators
Business Investment
2012f
2011e
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
-15%
Services
UT
Table 6
Utah Taxable Sales by Component
Calendar
Year
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
e = estimate
Millions of Dollars
Business
Retail Investment
Taxable
Sales Purchases Services
$6,708
7,010
6,951
7,346
8,048
8,407
8,918
9,860
10,994
12,097
13,080
14,404
14,873
15,657
16,493
17,278
17,748
18,356
18,808
20,351
22,155
24,969
26,504
26,489
25,600
25,061
26,255
27,804
$4,122
3,689
3,398
3,684
3,675
3,874
4,355
4,342
4,956
5,609
6,231
6,878
7,044
7,729
7,839
8,372
8,588
8,039
7,909
9,121
10,579
12,546
13,136
12,628
11,071
11,667
12,567
12,856
$1,379
1,414
1,587
1,718
1,849
1,829
2,040
2,223
2,499
2,802
3,205
3,594
3,724
4,122
4,351
4,746
4,709
4,615
4,396
4,534
5,135
5,670
6,119
6,822
6,338
6,213
6,757
6,973
All
Other
$304
265
252
269
320
664
685
888
892
1,019
1,093
968
1,188
1,137
1,316
1,250
1,381
1,502
1,447
1,305
1,372
1,610
1,931
1,422
1,400
1,350
1,197
1,170
Total
Taxable
Sales
$12,513
12,378
12,188
13,017
13,892
14,774
15,998
17,313
19,341
21,527
23,609
25,844
26,829
28,646
29,999
31,645
32,426
32,512
32,560
35,311
39,241
44,795
47,690
47,361
44,409
44,292
46,775
48,803
Percent Change
Business
Retail Investment Taxable
All
Sales Purchases Services
Other
4.8%
4.5
-0.8
5.7
9.6
4.5
6.1
10.6
11.5
10.0
8.1
10.1
3.3
5.3
5.3
4.8
2.7
3.4
2.5
8.2
8.9
12.7
6.1
-0.1
-3.4
-2.1
4.8
5.9
-3.1%
-10.5
-7.9
8.4
-0.2
5.4
12.4
-0.3
14.1
13.2
11.1
10.4
2.4
9.7
1.4
6.8
2.6
-6.4
-1.6
15.3
16.0
18.6
4.7
-3.9
-12.3
5.4
7.7
2.3
4.0%
-1.8
12.3
8.2
7.6
-1.1
11.6
9.0
12.4
12.1
14.4
12.1
3.6
10.7
5.5
9.1
-0.8
-2.0
-4.7
3.1
13.3
10.4
7.9
11.5
-7.1
-2.0
8.8
3.2
7.0%
-12.7
-5.0
6.7
18.8
107.8
3.2
29.6
0.5
14.2
7.2
-11.4
22.7
-4.2
15.7
-5.0
10.5
8.8
-3.7
-9.8
5.1
17.3
19.9
-26.3
-1.6
-3.6
-11.4
-2.2
Total
Taxable
Sales
2.0%
-1.6
-1.5
6.8
6.7
6.3
8.3
8.2
11.7
11.3
9.7
9.5
3.8
6.8
4.7
5.5
2.5
0.3
0.1
8.4
11.1
14.2
6.5
-0.7
-6.2
-0.3
5.6
4.3
f = forecast
Source: Utah State Tax Commission
UT
Economic Indicators
23
2011 Revenue Forecast

The first consensus forecast for FY2011, in November 2009
was for tax collections of $4,410.7 million, a 4.5% increase
over prior year. Months later, in early 2010, the forecast predicted $4,361.1 million a rise of $141.0 million or 3.3%. After
realizing FY2010 revenue at $4,193.6 million, a $26.5 million
revenue deficit, the FY2011 revenue forecast was increased
$176.1 million to $4,537.1 million or 8.2% almost entirely due
to policy changes enacted in the 2010 General Legislative
Session. The last consensus revenue forecast in February
2011, with four months until the end of FY2011, raised the
revenue forecast $25.1 million to $4,562.3 million or growth
of 8.8%. Actual tax collections for FY2011 exceeded this
estimate by $97.7 million, growing 11.1% instead of 8.8%.
Tax Collections
Overview
General and Education Fund (GF/EF) revenue for Fiscal
Year 2011 increased 11.1% over Fiscal Year 2010. For Fiscal
Year 2011, total collections reached $4,658.5 million, $464.9
million more than prior year collections of $4,193.6 million.
The increase in revenue is attributable to an improving economy, temporary policy changes with earmarked funds, and a
tax increase on tobacco products. This is the first time revenues have increased since Fiscal Year 2007, having declined
1.8%, 12.5%, 8.1% in the prior three fiscal years.
Compared to forecast expectations, GF/EF collections in
FY2011 were $97.7 million in surplus, a 2.3% difference.
Revenue was expected to rise $368.0 million or 8.8% in
FY2010; collections actually rose $465.7 million or 11.1%.
2011 Legislation Impacting Tax Collections

During the 2011 General Legislative Session, several bills
impacting tax collections were enacted. A major policy
change from the prior session, HB438, shifted $113 million in
sales tax earmarked for transportation spending back to the
GF for FY2011 only. Though it appears the sales tax is forecast to fall $39.4 million or 2.5%, due to the shifting earmark
it is actually growing near 5%. Further earmarking of the
sales tax was enacted with SB229. Starting in FY2013, this
bill earmarks 30% of the future growth in state collected sales
tax to the Centennial Highway Fund. The current forecast
places this additional earmark at $60.0 million in FY2013.
Total earmarks are expected to reach $401.6 million in
FY2013 just over 20% of expected total sales tax collections.
The outlook for tax collections in FY2012 is positive, with

expected collections of $4,753.5 million. A growing economy, partially offset by a shift in the earmarking of funds is
expected to produce an extra $95.0 million in GF/EF tax
collections, a 2.0% increase. This is $73.3 million higher than
forecast in the 2011 General Legislative Session. General
Fund collections are expected to fall $17.8 million or 0.9%.
Education Fund collections are expected to grow $112.8 million or 4.3%.
Fiscal Year 2011 Tax Collections
Tax collections in the GF/EF reached $4,658.5 million in
FY2011, an increase of $464.9 million or 11.1% over prior
year. The General Fund rose to $2,046.3 million, a gain of
$264.9 million or 14.9%. The Education Fund rose to
$2,612.2 million, a gain of $200.0 million or 8.3%.
2012 Revenue Forecast

The initial forecast for FY2012, in November 2010 was for
tax collections of $4,629.4 million, 2.0% higher than prior
year. Months later, in early 2011, the consensus forecast was
revised up $47.4 million to $4,676.8 million or growth of
2.5%. Projected policy changes from 2011 legislation did not
substantively affect the forecast (total impacts being estimated
at $3.3 million). In November 2011, with FY2011 revenue
realized at $4,658.5 million or 11.1% growth, and a continued
economic recovery, tax collections in FY2012 were forecast
to grow to $4,753.5 million or 2.0%, an increase of $95.0 million.
The General Fund was 43.9% of all collections, and the Education Fund the balance at 56.1%. Individual Income tax
collections were $2,298.2 million and represent 49.3% of all
collections. Sales and Use Tax collections were $1,601.4 million and were 34.4% of collections. All other General Fund
collections were $444.9 million and represent 9.5% of collections. All other Education Fund collections were $314.1 million and represent 6.7% of collections.
24
Economic Indicators
UT
Figure 21
Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change in General/Education Fund Revenue
28%
9.2%
2.0%
5.8%
3.2%
8.9%
8.8%
3.6%
1.2%
0.4%
2.8%
5.0%
9.7%
8.7%
7.4%
6.0%
4.8%
2.8%
8.1%
0.8%
4%
0.2%
1.6%
8%
15.2%
19.3%
The average annual rate of grow th in

inflation adjusted tax collections (GDP
Deflator) from FY1971 to FY2010 w as 3.9%.
5.7%
12%
3.6%
16%
3.7%
7.8%
10.0%
7.0%
6.4%
6.2%
20%
10.2%
13.9%
24%
-14.2%
-12%
-8.7%
-4.1%
-1.1%
-7.2%
-8%
-3.6%
-3.6%
-4%
-1.6%
0%
-16%
-20%
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Fiscal Year
Source: Governors Office of Planning and Budget
f = forecast
Figure 22
Actual and Inflation-Adjusted Revenue Surplus for the General and Education Fund Revenue
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Fiscal Year
Nominal
FY2011 Real (GDP Deflator)
Source: Governors Office of Planning and Budget f = forecast
UT
Economic Indicators
25
Figure 23
Composition of the General and Education Fund Revenue
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Fiscal Year
All Other
Source: Governors Office of Planning and Budget
26
Economic Indicators
Individual Income
Sales Tax
f = forecast
UT
Table 7
Fiscal Year Cash Collections Unrestricted Revenues
Nominal Revenue (millions)
Revenue Source
Sales and Use Tax
Cable/Satellite Excise Tax
Liquor Profits
Insurance Premiums
Beer, Cigarette, and Tabacco
Oil and Gas Severance Tax
Metal Severance Tax
Inheritance Tax
Investment Income
General Fund Other
Property and Energy Credit
General Fund Total
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f
$1,251.8 $1,316.4 $1,369.6 $1,431.4 $1,441.3 $1,444.0 $1,501.9 $1,634.5 $1,806.3 $1,857.8 $1,739.4 $1,547.5 $1,402.7 $1,601.4 $1,562.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.7
20.5
20.8
24.1
24.8
25.3
25.4
25.9
26.3
27.0
28.7
30.3
32.6
31.7
37.7
38.1
47.3
53.2
59.7
59.7
58.4
62.3
65.9
44.6
47.7
52.2
46.0
56.6
59.0
62.4
67.4
71.4
71.8
77.2
83.0
80.0
75.9
79.6
53.2
60.0
58.0
57.9
60.0
54.2
62.8
61.9
60.8
62.4
62.8
60.6
58.7
125.5
127.8
14.0
7.9
17.3
39.4
18.9
26.7
36.7
53.5
71.5
65.4
65.5
71.0
56.2
59.9
66.6
9.0
5.1
5.7
6.2
5.0
5.8
6.0
11.4
17.0
23.6
26.5
14.6
20.9
27.1
26.9
25.4
8.2
64.6
30.0
9.4
33.0
9.7
3.0
7.4
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
15.7
15.0
19.5
27.5
9.7
6.5
5.5
13.6
40.0
83.5
62.8
25.1
5.3
2.4
2.8
40.1
38.0
40.8
46.0
45.3
46.7
45.6
46.4
50.8
58.0
53.4
54.4
80.3
72.3
77.2
-4.5
-5.3
-4.4
-5.4
-5.3
-5.5
-5.6
-5.9
-5.6
-6.2
-6.4
-6.2
-6.4
-6.0
-6.3
1,475.6 1,520.2 1,652.1 1,709.3 1,673.5 1,702.1 1,762.7 1,935.4 2,187.5 2,290.9 2,165.1 1,934.6 1,781.4 2,046.3 2,028.5
Individual Income Tax

Corporate Tax
Mineral Production Withholding
Education Fund Other
Education Fund Total
1,374.5
191.8
7.5
7.1
1,580.8
1,461.3
188.1
6.8
7.6
1,663.7
1,651.4
181.1
9.3
8.5
1,850.4
1,705.3
171.1
19.5
9.7
1,905.5
1,605.3
119.0
13.2
5.6
1,743.0
1,572.5
156.3
7.2
5.0
1,741.0
1,692.3
158.2
17.3
4.5
1,872.2
1,926.6
204.2
16.7
0.0
2,147.6
2,277.6
366.6
22.7
9.8
2,676.8
2,561.4
414.1
23.1
18.2
3,016.8
2,598.8
405.1
23.8
20.1
3,047.8
2,319.6
255.4
32.5
19.3
2,626.8
2,104.6
258.4
24.6
24.6
2,412.2
2,298.2
260.7
26.7
26.6
2,612.2
2,435.9
254.4
28.1
6.6
2,725.0
GF/EF Total
3,056.5
3,183.9
3,502.4
3,614.8
3,416.5
3,443.1
3,634.9
4,083.0
4,864.2
5,307.7
5,212.9
4,561.4
4,193.6
4,658.5
4,753.5
217.7
72.4
54.8
344.9
224.7
73.7
58.5
356.9
237.6
76.6
64.9
379.0
229.4
80.6
64.2
374.2
237.9
84.4
62.8
385.1
236.6
84.5
65.4
386.6
239.9
86.2
64.9
391.0
241.5
93.8
70.0
405.3
240.4
101.1
76.6
418.1
254.7
111.1
78.8
444.6
250.7
113.0
82.4
446.0
235.5
101.2
85.4
422.1
243.3
94.4
73.6
411.4
252.5
102.6
80.7
435.8
251.9
106.9
81.2
440.0
Motor Fuel Tax

Special Fuel Tax
Other
Transportation Fund Total
Mineral Lease Payments
TOTAL
33.5
31.5
39.6
57.9
36.5
53.1
74.8
92.0
170.0
160.9
150.3
189.1
147.2
152.8
153.6
3,434.8
3,572.2
3,921.1
4,046.8
3,838.1
3,882.7
4,100.7
4,580.3
5,452.4
5,913.2
5,809.2
5,172.7
4,752.2
5,247.1
5,347.1
f = forecast
Sources:
1. FiNET, Division of Finance
2. Governor's Office of Planning and Budget
Table 8
Fiscal Year Cash Collection Unrestricted Revenues (Current Dollar Percent Changes)
Percent Change
Revenue Source
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f
Sales and Use Tax

Cable/Satellite Excise Tax
Liquor Profits
Insurance Premiums
Beer, Cigarette, and Tabacco
Oil and Gas Severance Tax
Metal Severance Tax
Inheritance Tax
Investment Income
General Fund Other
Property and Energy Credit
General Fund Total
0.0%
5.2%
4.0%
4.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4.0%
8.8%
8.2
3.5
29.2
-18.8
37.4
147.2
-3.7
15.1
1.8
2.4
2.5
7.1
12.8
-43.2
-43.3
-67.6
-4.5
-5.3
17.0
3.0
6.3
9.3
-3.3
118.0
11.5
683.7
30.0
7.4
-17.3
8.7
5.6
-11.8
-0.2
127.3
8.9
-53.5
40.8
12.8
23.8
3.5
7.7
23.1
3.5
-52.0
-20.2
-68.6
-64.6
-1.5
-1.3
-2.1
-2.5
4.2
-9.6
41.6
17.8
249.9
-33.5
2.9
3.2
1.7
18.6
5.8
15.9
37.1
3.3
-70.7
-14.9
-2.3
2.2
3.6
1.1
7.9
-1.4
45.9
90.0
-69.5
147.1
1.6
5.6
9.8
10.5%
75.8
24.2
6.0
-1.8
33.7
48.9
152.3
194.1
9.5
-5.7
13.0
2.9%
1.7
12.5
0.5
2.6
-8.5
38.5
-93.3
108.7
14.3
9.9
4.7
-6.4%
15.5
12.2
7.6
0.7
0.1
12.5
-80.9
-24.8
-8.0
3.8
-5.5
-11.0%
3.0
0.0
7.5
-3.6
8.4
-45.1
236.7
-60.1
1.8
-2.6
-10.6
-9.4%
2.0
-2.2
-3.6
-3.1
-20.8
43.2
-81.1
-78.8
47.6
2.4
-7.9
14.2%
0.3
6.8
-5.2
113.8
6.5
30.0
113.8
-55.0
-9.9
-6.4
14.9
-2.5%
2.1
5.8
4.9
1.8
11.3
-0.8
-22.8
17.1
6.8
5.5
-0.9
Individual Income Tax

Corporate Tax
Mineral Production Withholding
Education Fund Other
Education Fund Total
11.4
2.8
-19.7
45.9
10.2
6.3
-1.9
-9.6
7.1
5.2
13.0
-3.7
37.7
11.9
11.2
3.3
-5.5
109.2
13.8
3.0
-5.9
-30.5
-32.0
-42.4
-8.5
-2.0
31.4
-45.7
-10.7
-0.1
7.6
1.2
140.3
-8.9
7.5
13.8
18.2
29.1
79.6
-3.1
35.8
-99.1 23,989.4
14.7
24.6
12.5
13.0
1.4
85.9
12.7
1.5
-2.2
3.4
10.4
1.0
-10.7
-36.9
36.3
-3.8
-13.8
-9.3
1.2
-24.4
27.4
-8.2
9.2
0.9
8.7
8.1
8.3
6.0
-2.4
5.3
-75.2
4.3
GF/EF Total
6.3
4.2
10.0
3.2
-5.5
0.8
5.6
12.3
19.1
9.1
-1.8
-12.5
-8.1
11.1
2.0
Motor Fuel Tax

Special Fuel Tax
Other
Transportation Fund Total
29.3
56.2
4.1
29.0
3.2
1.8
6.7
3.5
5.7
3.9
10.9
6.2
-3.4
5.2
-1.1
-1.3
3.7
4.7
-2.2
2.9
-0.5
0.1
4.2
0.4
1.4
1.9
-0.8
1.1
0.6
8.9
7.9
3.7
-0.4
7.7
9.5
3.2
5.9
9.9
2.8
6.3
-1.6
1.7
4.6
0.3
-6.1
-10.4
3.7
-5.4
3.3
-6.7
-13.8
-2.5
3.8
8.7
9.6
6.0
-0.2
4.2
0.6
1.0
Mineral Lease Payments
-1.8
-5.9
25.7
46.0
-36.9
45.6
40.9
23.0
84.8
-5.4
-6.5
25.8
-22.2
3.8
0.5
8.1
4.0
9.8
3.2
-5.2
1.2
5.6
11.7
19.0
8.5
-1.8
-11.0
-8.1
10.4
1.9
TOTAL
f = forecast
Sources:
1. FiNET, Division of Finance
2. Governor's Office of Planning and Budget
UT
Economic Indicators
27
55% in 2010. Computers and electronics comprised the second highest proportion of total exports at 11%.
Exports
Overview
Improving economic conditions in Utah, the nation, and
around the globe were reflected in Utahs production and
export levels through 2010 and 2011. Utah's total exports
rose from $13.9 billion in 2010 to an estimated $19.0 billion
in 2011, an increase of 37.9%. Exports have been above $4.0
billion since 2002 and above $6.0 billion since 2005.
2012 Outlook
Improving economic conditions in Utah, the nation, and
around the globe were reflected in Utahs production and
export levels through 2010 and 2011. Utahs total exports
rose from $13.8 billion in 2010 to an estimated $19.0 billion
in 2011, an increase of 37.9%. Exports have been above $4.0
billion since 2005. Assuming moderate worldwide economic
growth and barring any significant collapse in gold value or
another financial crises, exports are forecast to grow to $22
billion in 2012.
A large majority of Utah exports are primary metals. Shipments of primary metals, particularly gold, accounted for
approximately 64% of total exports during 2011, up from
Figure 24
Utah Merchandise Exports
$25,000
22,000
Millions of Dollars
$20,000
19,049
$15,000
13,809
10,306 10,337
$10,000
7,815
6,067
4,542
$5,000
3,134
3,221
3,506
1999
2000
2001
4,119
4,718
4,731
$0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
Source: U.S. Census Bureau e = estimate f = forecast
28
Economic Indicators
UT
UT
Economic Indicators
29
111
112
113
114
211
212
311
312
313
314
315
316
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
339
511
910
920
980, 990
16
26
29
31
30
8
5
17
22
24
25
21
27
14
20
23
3
12
18
1
10
6
2
11
4
15
7
28
9
19
13
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
Total
$4,119 $4,731 $6,067 $6,801 $7,815 $10,306 $10,337 $13,809 $19,050
Agricultural Products
$5.5
$9.1
$12.9 $12.5 $15.4
$30.3
$54.7
$23.1
$28.9
Livestock and Livestock Products
1.7
1.6
0.7
1.0
1.9
0.9
4.0
7.9
6.7
Forestry Products
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.6
2.0
Fish and Marine Products
1.7
4.1
3.7
5.3
3.2
2.7
2.6
1.3
0.8
Oil and Gas
0.1
0.9
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.8
1.1
1.2
0.8
Minerals
43.0
96.8
619.0 572.4 549.8
577.3
236.5
374.0
461.0
Food
282.9 311.1
358.8 382.7 428.1
512.9
513.9
603.5
650.8
Beverages
26.7
8.2
52.3
50.0
33.1
28.0
50.4
40.8
24.6
Raw Textiles
3.6
3.9
3.5
4.2
5.2
6.0
5.8
21.6
12.5
Milled Textiles
5.2
5.5
6.8
8.3
10.6
15.7
16.2
11.8
11.3
Apparel
4.3
4.5
5.3
6.5
6.0
5.4
5.9
10.5
9.6
Leather
6.1
7.9
7.4
7.8
7.0
10.3
8.3
8.0
12.8
Wood Products
2.7
2.6
2.2
2.5
3.7
9.0
4.3
4.3
3.2
Paper
27.7
32.0
34.9
59.3
75.2
62.4
47.0
43.5
40.7
Printed Material
22.0
26.8
28.2
30.9
37.9
29.7
29.7
20.5
17.0
Petroleum and Coal
1.8
4.2
5.9
9.5
6.1
7.1
3.6
4.6
12.5
Chemicals
340.7 430.0
456.1 469.0 481.4
496.5
522.1
706.2
729.3
Plastics
75.0
67.0
59.8
79.6
72.5
96.4
81.7
108.5
151.8
Nonmetallic Minerals
9.9
12.0
13.5
13.5
22.4
24.9
22.5
26.6
23.3
Primary Metals
1,464.4 1,512.4 2,060.2 2,770.0 3,222.3 4,240.4 5,466.2 7,621.5 12,232.4
Fabricated Metals
62.0
71.7
90.9 111.6 133.6
167.6
168.0
209.7
218.7
Machinery
141.8 205.8
226.8 267.0 294.7
354.1
321.0
435.1
520.5
Computers and Electronics
624.0 910.0
854.9 587.4 943.4 1,982.9 1,588.5 1,974.4 2,180.6
Electrical Equipment
85.7
80.5
102.7 104.6 117.4
126.9
112.5
148.9
186.9
Transportation Equipment
471.1 479.2
546.8 621.2 702.9
812.9
541.1
649.3
651.0
Furniture
13.4
20.8
27.3
61.6
63.8
55.0
38.9
30.9
35.8
Miscellaneous Manufactures
294.1 289.8
333.0 377.7 383.5
427.3
358.3
431.4
464.6
Publications
2.2
8.0
8.2
8.2
13.6
9.3
5.9
7.9
2.7
Scrap
12.8
26.0
40.8
78.7 104.1
111.6
65.0
202.5
291.7
Used Merchandise
2.0
2.9
3.8
8.2
18.5
34.5
9.9
24.0
23.0
Unclassified
84.7
95.4
99.6
88.1
56.5
66.1
50.6
55.2
42.2
e = estimate
Code
Rank
Industry
Name
Table 9
Utah Merchandise Exports by Industry (Millions of Dollars)
2011
Share
37.9% 100.0%
25.3% 0.2%
-15.5% 0.0%
216.2% 0.0%
-38.8% 0.0%
-30.0% 0.0%
23.3% 2.4%
7.8% 3.4%
-39.7% 0.1%
-42.1% 0.1%
-4.3% 0.1%
-8.7% 0.1%
61.2% 0.1%
-25.8% 0.0%
-6.3% 0.2%
-17.2% 0.1%
168.8% 0.1%
3.3% 3.8%
39.9% 0.8%
-12.4% 0.1%
60.5% 64.2%
4.3% 1.1%
19.6% 2.7%
10.4% 11.4%
25.5% 1.0%
0.3% 3.4%
15.9% 0.2%
7.7% 2.4%
-65.1% 0.0%
44.1% 1.5%
-4.2% 0.1%
-23.5% 0.2%
2010-11
Percent
Change
Table 10
Utah Merchandise Exports by Purchasing Country (Millions of Dollars)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Country
2003
United Kingdom
$486.5
Hong Kong
58.8
Canada
548.5
Thailand
30.4
Taiwan
62.8
India
23.5
Singapore
38.4
Australia
67.2
China
113.9
Mexico
111.0
Japan
476.5
Germany
118.7
Belgium
69.3
Korea, South
69.8
Italy
39.0
Chile
12.4
Turkey
12.7
France
66.3
Philippines
103.6
Netherlands
124.4
Switzerland
1,105.2
Malaysia
26.6
Brazil
22.9
Spain
26.8
Israel
20.4
South Africa
4.2
United Arab Emirates
4.5
Sweden
11.3
Russia
11.7
Indonesia
2.4
Finland
6.2
New Zealand
8.7
Ireland
24.3
Dominican Republic
6.0
Saudi Arabia
4.7
2011e
2011
Percent 2011
Change Share
$559.5 $1,105.8 $2,282.6 $2,382.4 $3,516.1 $4,364.1 $4,407.9 $6,561.5

89.1
146.0
90.4
101.6
133.4
153.4
947.4 3,872.1
877.2
713.9
890.8
947.3 1,082.8 1,019.4 1,265.2 1,382.6
61.1
40.0
28.2
41.0
163.1
46.6
172.3
717.9
79.5
97.0
81.7
211.0
727.6
567.9
550.9
659.9
18.5
54.2
20.6
384.0
496.8
649.5 1,124.7
617.3
125.7
127.5
57.0
222.9
373.2
253.3
524.5
577.8
74.5
109.7
121.0
126.6
183.9
182.8
220.5
527.2
124.0
321.4
245.1
386.6
527.0
542.3
577.6
526.3
122.0
129.4
267.3
223.8
241.9
279.4
456.3
521.6
540.9
588.8
483.7
416.4
375.9
342.2
406.2
400.6
170.1
209.1
205.0
170.6
234.0
165.9
226.4
287.7
93.5
428.2
345.3
393.3
543.4
208.7
290.3
280.2
105.5
124.6
128.8
126.2
201.5
294.5
273.0
218.3
43.5
59.5
71.3
67.0
72.7
73.3
148.4
161.9
31.3
11.6
14.1
16.3
30.1
23.1
31.0
149.9
4.6
14.0
18.4
16.9
38.6
18.2
61.0
137.8
72.9
112.7
94.8
106.4
86.5
77.8
109.0
135.8
117.8
110.4
113.7
146.3
144.2
106.5
145.1
131.5
105.4
119.2
116.5
188.7
175.7
92.7
110.3
122.8
772.6
777.1
484.1
455.7
64.3
94.8
718.6
109.7
40.0
49.6
29.7
40.6
51.8
69.4
152.0
96.9
40.3
30.5
79.7
95.5
100.5
99.8
78.1
95.8
24.6
49.4
41.5
49.5
48.8
44.7
55.6
61.2
47.7
57.5
58.8
60.2
80.3
45.5
58.8
53.8
9.8
16.0
32.0
17.7
15.2
14.4
18.7
51.9
93.5
138.0
32.3
27.5
99.3
63.7
128.3
44.5
17.7
16.0
27.0
25.9
38.1
34.3
44.3
40.1
13.8
11.4
10.6
16.0
39.7
23.8
40.0
22.7
2.1
5.5
5.4
7.7
10.2
12.7
16.2
22.1
7.3
9.3
9.6
6.9
11.0
11.6
15.3
19.5
14.2
12.6
12.4
16.8
27.4
16.8
17.2
18.9
16.7
16.8
77.3
38.8
19.0
21.2
14.8
18.8
8.1
8.2
7.7
14.5
13.1
13.1
17.1
18.5
5.7
6.0
6.6
16.1
17.9
26.4
13.8
18.3
48.9% 34.4%
308.7% 20.3%
9.3% 7.3%
316.7% 3.8%
19.8% 3.5%
-45.1% 3.2%
10.2% 3.0%
139.1% 2.8%
-8.9% 2.8%
14.3% 2.7%
-1.4% 2.1%
27.1% 1.5%
-3.5% 1.5%
-20.0% 1.1%
9.1% 0.9%
382.9% 0.8%
126.0% 0.7%
24.5% 0.7%
-9.4% 0.7%
11.3% 0.6%
-84.7% 0.6%
-36.2% 0.5%
22.6% 0.5%
10.0% 0.3%
-8.4% 0.3%
176.9% 0.3%
-65.3% 0.2%
-9.3% 0.2%
-43.4% 0.1%
36.6% 0.1%
27.4% 0.1%
10.0% 0.1%
27.2% 0.1%
8.4% 0.1%
32.8% 0.1%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
e = estimate
30
Economic Indicators
UT
Industry Focus
cline in residential units. Utahs longest previous residential
contraction was five years (1978-1982). During the peak year
of 2005 permits were issued for 28,825 units compared to
8,700 six years later, a decline of 69% for total residential
units, which includes apartment, condominiums and singlefamily homes. The decline has been more severe for singlefamily homes, which have dropped from 20,912 in 2005 to an
estimated 4,800 units in 2011, a decline of 77%.
Construction
Overview
The value of permit authorized construction in Utah in 2011
was estimated at $3.5 billion, slightly higher than the $3.3
billion in 2010. In inflation-adjusted dollars, the value of authorized construction last year was at the lowest level since
1992. The 6% increase in 2011 reverses four consecutive
years of decline. In constant 2011 dollars all three major construction sectors improved in 2011. Residential value was up
4.1%, nonresidential value was up 18.9% and additions, alterations and repairs were up 4.2%. Its quite likely the value
of permit authorized construction hit bottom in 2010, and
2011 was the beginning of a modest recovery.
2012 Outlook
After a residential construction value contraction of five
years, Utah saw growth with an increase from $1.67 billion in
2010 to $1.74 billion in 2011, and the growth is expected to
continue in 2012. The number of permits issued for residential units should increase by 14.9% in 2012 to 10,000 units
with a construction value of $2.0 billion. On the nonresidential side, the value of permit authorized nonresidential construction is projected to remain at $1.1 billion in 2012.
In terms of residential units, the numbers were lower in 2011

than in 2010. The estimate for 2011 was 8,700 units, 6.5%
below 2010. This year will mark six consecutive years of de-
Figure 25
Utah Residential Construction Activity
30
Thousands of Units
25
20
15
10
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991r
Single-Family
1994
Multi-Family
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012f
Total
Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research f = forecast
UT
Industry Focus
31
Table 11
Residential and Nonresidential Construction Activity
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991r
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
SingleFamily
Units
MultiFamily
Units
Mobile
Homes/
Cabins
5,962
6,768
8,807
7,546
8,284
10,912
13,546
17,424
15,618
12,570
7,760
5,413
4,767
8,806
7,496
7,403
8,512
6,530
5,297
5,197
6,099
7,911
10,375
12,929
13,947
13,904
15,139
14,079
14,476
14,561
13,463
13,851
14,466
16,515
17,724
20,912
19,888
13,510
5,513
5,217
5,936
4,800
3,108
6,009
8,513
5,904
3,217
2,800
5,075
5,856
5,646
4,179
3,141
3,840
2,904
5,858
11,327
7,844
4,932
755
418
453
910
958
1,722
3,865
4,646
6,425
7,190
5,265
5,762
4,443
3,629
5,089
4,149
5,555
5,853
6,562
5,658
6,290
4,544
4,951
3,168
3,700
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
572
904
1,010
1,154
1,229
1,408
1,343
1,505
1,346
1,062
735
926
766
716
811
776
739
546
320
240
200
Total
Units
Value of
Residential
Construction
(millions)
9,070
12,777
17,320
13,450
11,501
13,712
18,621
23,280
21,264
16,749
10,901
9,253
7,671
14,664
18,823
15,247
13,444
7,305
5,715
5,632
7,009
9,441
13,001
17,804
19,747
21,558
23,737
20,687
21,743
20,350
18,154
19,675
19,941
22,836
24,293
28,285
26,322
20,539
10,603
10,488
9,344
8,700
10,000
$117.0
176.8
256.5
240.9
237.9
330.6
507.0
728.0
734.0
645.8
408.3
451.5
347.6
657.8
786.7
706.2
715.5
495.2
413.0
447.8
579.4
791.0
1,113.6
1,504.4
1,730.1
1,854.6
2,104.5
1,943.5
2,188.7
2,238.0
2,140.1
2,352.7
2,491.0
3,046.4
3,552.6
4,662.6
4,955.5
3,963.2
1,877.0
1,674.0
1,667.0
1,735.0
2,000.0
Value of
Value of
Nonresidential Add., Alt.,
Construction and Repairs
(millions)
(millions)
$87.3
121.6
99.0
150.3
174.2
196.5
216.8
327.1
338.6
490.3
430.0
378.2
440.1
321.0
535.2
567.7
439.9
413.4
272.1
389.6
422.9
342.6
396.9
463.7
772.2
832.7
951.8
1,370.9
1,148.4
1,195.0
1,213.0
970.0
897.0
1,017.4
1,089.9
1,217.8
1,588.0
2,051.0
1,919.1
1,054.3
925.1
1,100.0
1,100.0
Total
Valuation
(millions)
$18.0
23.9
31.8
36.3
52.3
50.0
49.4
61.7
70.8
96.0
83.7
101.6
175.7
136.3
172.9
167.6
164.1
166.4
161.5
171.1
243.4
186.9
234.8
337.3
341.9
409.0
386.3
407.1
461.3
537.0
583.3
562.8
393.0
497.0
476.0
707.6
865.3
979.7
781.2
660.1
672.0
700.0
700.0
$222.3
322.3
387.3
427.5
464.4
577.1
773.2
1,116.8
1,143.4
1,232.1
922.0
931.3
963.4
1,115.1
1,494.8
1,441.5
1,319.5
1,075.0
846.6
1,008.5
1,245.7
1,320.5
1,745.3
2,305.4
2,844.2
3,096.3
3,442.6
3,721.5
3,798.4
3,970.0
3,936.4
3,885.5
3,781.0
4,560.8
5,118.5
6,588.0
7,408.8
6,993.9
4,577.3
3,388.4
3,264.1
3,535.0
3,800.0
f = forecast
Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
32
Industry Focus
UT
Figure 26
Value of New Construction
$8,000
$7,000
Millions of Dollars
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
Residential
1988
1991r
Nonresidential
1994
1997
Renovations
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012f
Total
Table 12
Summary of Construction Activity
Type of Construction
Total Construction Value
Residential Value
Total Dwelling Units
Single Family Units
Multifamily Units
Mobile Homes/Cabins
Nonresidential Value
Additions, Alterations and Repairs
2007
2008
$7.0 billion
$4.0 billion
20,539 units
13,510 units
6,290 units
739 units
$2.1 billion
$980 million
$4.6 billion
$1.9 billion
10,603 units
5,513 units
4,544 units
546 units
$1.9 billion
$791 million
2011
2012
% Change
2011-2012
$3.4 billion $3.3 billion $3.5 billion

$1.7 billion $1.6 billion $1.7 billion
10,488 units 9,344 units 8,700 units
320 units
240 units
200 units
$1.1 billion $925 billion $1.1 billion
$660 million $674 million $700 million
$3.8 billion
$2.0 billion
10,000 units
7.5%
15.3%
14.9%
$1.1 billion
$700 million
0.0%
0.0%
2009
2010
UT
Industry Focus
33
price of coal dramatically increased to $35.50 per ton in 2011

as new regulations and difficult mining conditions increased
expenses. With regard to electricity, Utahs well established
coal-fired power plants will assure affordable, reliable electric
power for the foreseeable future and help keep Utahs electricity prices well below the national average.
Energy
Overview
For the most part, the energy sector in Utah continued to
rebound after experiencing significant recession-related declines in 2009 and 2010. Crude oil production continues to
rise as oil prices remain high, while natural gas production hit
a new record in 2011 despite modest gas prices. Demand for
electricity in Utah remains strong, but lack of demand in the
out-of-state markets contributed to declines in Utahs electric
generation and resulted in decreases in consumption of coal
and natural gas at Utah power plants. Early indications are
that 2012 will continue on the path of slow and cautious
growth, keeping the energy sector a bright spot in Utahs recovering economy.
2012 Outlook
In 2012, Utah crude oil production should continue its recent
growth as prices are expected to remain near $85 per barrel.
Utah coal production should increase back to about 20 million tons, despite the recent announcement of the idling of
the Dugout Canyon mine. Natural gas production is expected to increase slightly for the second straight year, despite
further declines in prices, as operators increase production of
associated gas from crude oil wells. Electricity generation in
Utah should begin to increase slightly as demand rises with an
improved economy. In addition, as the economy grows, consumption of energy from all sources is expected to increase in
2012, while prices remain near 2011 averages. As always,
future predictions are subject to change due to unforeseen
socio-political and economic events.
Production and Consumption. Despite a 96% increase in

crude oil production over the past eight years and 2011 production totaling 25.7 million barrels, Utah continues to be
dependent on other states and Canada for crude oil and petroleum products as current Utah production meets only 50%
of in-state demand. Conversely, Utah continues to produce
much more natural gas than it consumes (450 billion cubic
feet produced in 2011 compared to 204 billion cubic feet
consumed), allowing more than half of total production to be
exported out-of-state. Utah coal production increased only
slightly in 2011 to 19.6 million tons as production from the
newly opened Coal Hollow mine and the reopened Castle
Valley mine made up for lower-than-expected production at
the Deer Creek mine and the loss of production at the nowidle Emery mine. Utah companies still exported 30% of total
coal production to other states and countries, while in-state
consumption, dominated by coal-fired power plants, decreased to 15.2 million tons. Electric generation in Utah has
decreased 13% since reaching a record high in 2008, totaling
40,650 gigawatthours in 2011. In contrast, electricity consumption in Utah continues to rise, reaching a new record of
28,600 gigawatthours in 2011. The decrease in Utahs electric
generation is mostly the result of lower demand for electricity
in surrounding states, especially Nevada and California, which
are Utahs main consumers of exported electricity. While
electricity generation from coal and natural gas plants has
decreased in recent years, electricity from renewable resources
has more than doubled since 2008. This increase is attributed
to the recent construction of the 306-MW Milford Wind
farm, as well as capacity increases at the Blundell geothermal
power plant.
Table 13
Electric Generation in Utah: 2011
Industry Focus
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydroelectric
Wind
Geothermal
Other1
Petroleum
Other Renewables 2
33,200
5,150
1,100
600
330
190
40
40
81.7%
12.7%
2.7%
1.5%
0.8%
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
Total
40,650
Includes nonbiogenic municipal solid waste

and other manufactured and waste gases
derived from fossil fuels
Prices. Utahs crude oil price rose 22% to an average of $83

per barrel in 2011, Utahs second highest price in nominal
dollars, helping spur continued growth in crude oil development. Utahs average price for natural gas decreased to $3.90
per thousand cubic feet in 2011, but this did little to hinder
production, which reached a new all-time high. With the high
price of crude oil, operators are targeting natural gas resources that also produce significant liquids, thus increasing
overall gas production despite lower prices. The mine mouth
34
GWh
Precent
of Total
Landfill gas and biogenic municipal solid

waste
Source: Utah Geologcal Survey, U.S. Energy
Information Administration
UT
UT
Industry Focus
35
Thousand
barrels
35,983
30,812
30,563
32,316
32,101
31,809
34,406
35,172
35,971
34,694
35,082
36,933
36,524
37,422
38,275
41,718
44,628
44,529
45,452
46,806
49,179
48,167
47,607
49,897
50,625
52,978
56,863
55,550
52,955
49,553
49,760
51,000
52,000
19.79
34.14
30.50
28.12
27.21
23.98
13.33
17.22
14.24
18.63
22.61
19.99
19.39
17.48
16.38
17.71
21.10
18.57
12.52
17.69
28.53
24.09
23.87
28.88
39.35
53.98
59.70
62.48
86.58
50.22
68.09
83.00
85.00
$/barrel
Million
cubic feet
47,857
59,120
49,995
20,925
74,698
83,405
90,013
87,158
101,372
120,089
145,875
144,817
171,293
225,401
270,858
241,290
250,767
257,139
277,340
262,614
269,285
283,913
274,739
268,058
277,969
301,223
348,320
376,409
433,566
444,162
432,045
450,000
455,000
Coal
Thousand
tons
7,106
7,432
6,787
6,873
7,905
8,303
8,112
11,807
14,513
15,044
15,738
14,834
15,719
16,063
16,603
15,675
15,615
16,507
17,482
16,611
17,373
17,007
16,434
16,974
17,614
17,329
17,515
17,486
17,779
16,647
15,976
15,200
15,300
Note: Prices are in nominal dollars

Source: Utah Geological Survey, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining
25.63
26.87
29.42
28.32
29.20
27.69
27.64
25.67
22.85
22.01
21.78
21.56
21.83
21.17
20.07
19.11
18.50
18.34
17.83
17.36
16.93
17.76
18.47
16.64
17.70
19.34
22.51
25.18
27.78
28.40
30.77
35.50
37.50
$/ton
Wellhead
Minemouth
Production Consumption
Price
Price
Million $/thousand Thousand

cubic feet cubic feet
tons
115,092
1.12
13,236
102,240
1.10
13,808
117,706
3.06
16,912
110,185
3.40
11,829
115,578
4.08
12,259
115,117
3.52
12,831
105,175
2.90
14,269
98,987
1.88
16,521
108,953
2.39
18,164
113,537
1.58
20,517
116,648
1.70
22,012
132,766
1.54
21,875
122,785
1.63
21,015
138,199
1.77
21,723
137,222
1.54
24,422
156,971
1.15
25,051
161,285
1.39
27,071
165,305
1.86
26,428
170,134
1.73
26,600
160,431
1.93
26,491
165,023
3.28
26,920
159,299
3.52
27,024
163,379
1.99
25,299
154,125
4.11
23,069
155,891
5.24
21,818
160,276
7.16
24,556
187,399
5.49
26,131
219,699
3.86
24,288
224,187
6.15
24,275
214,163
3.38
21,927
219,178
4.23
19,406
204,400
3.90
19,600
210,000
3.85
20,000
Wellhead Marketed
Consumption
Price Production
Natural Gas
e = estimate
f = forecast
1
Includes nonbiogenic municipal solid waste and other manufactured and waste gases derived from fossil fuels
2
Includes hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass, wind, and solar
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
Thousand
barrels
24,979
24,309
23,595
31,045
38,054
41,080
39,243
35,829
33,365
28,504
27,705
25,928
24,074
21,826
20,668
19,976
19,529
19,593
19,218
16,362
15,609
15,274
13,771
13,097
14,745
16,676
17,928
19,535
22,044
22,942
24,664
25,700
26,000
Year Production Consumption
Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
Table 14
Production, Consumption, and Selected Prices for Energy Sources in Utah
Generation
from Fossil
Fuels 1
Gigawatthours
11,291
11,139
10,867
11,030
12,359
14,283
15,235
25,326
28,870
29,761
31,903
29,693
32,448
33,050
34,252
31,699
31,711
33,200
34,436
35,366
35,697
35,187
35,926
37,399
37,563
37,192
40,311
44,639
45,609
42,221
40,773
38,580
38,300
Electricity
Generation
Residential
Total
from
Consumption
Electricity
Generation
Price
Renewables 2
Gigawatt- GigawattGigawatt/kilowatthour
hours
hours
hours
821
12,112
10,705
5.5
623
11,762
11,886
6.0
1,024
11,891
12,391
6.3
1,394
12,424
13,194
6.9
1,429
13,788
12,717
7.4
1,129
15,412
13,039
7.8
1,584
16,819
12,989
8.0
1,020
26,346
13,398
8.0
767
29,637
14,507
7.8
735
30,496
14,965
7.4
660
32,564
15,402
7.1
813
30,506
15,907
7.1
836
33,284
16,567
7.0
1,047
34,097
16,867
6.9
983
35,235
17,847
6.9
1,137
32,836
18,460
6.9
1,272
32,983
19,858
7.0
1,547
34,747
20,376
6.9
1,509
35,945
20,700
6.8
1,449
36,815
21,879
6.3
942
36,639
23,185
6.3
700
35,887
23,217
6.7
682
36,608
23,267
6.8
625
38,024
23,860
6.9
649
38,212
24,512
7.2
973
38,165
25,000
7.5
952
41,263
26,366
7.6
734
45,373
27,785
8.2
970
46,579
28,192
8.3
1,322
43,543
27,587
8.5
1,476
42,249
28,044
8.7
2,070
40,650
28,600
8.9
2,200
40,500
29,000
9.0
in 2011. Gold and silver production decreased markedly, but

large price increases contributed to an overall value increase
of about 13% in 2011. The uranium price in 2011 was about
37% higher than 2010 resulting in a 28% increase in value
despite slightly decreased production.
Minerals
Overview
The Utah Geological Survey (UGS) estimates the gross production value of nonfuel mineral commodities and uranium
produced in Utah in 2011 totaled $4.59 billion, an increase of
about $302 million (7.0%) over 2010. The estimated nominal
value of nonfuel mineral production (excluding uranium) in
Utah was $4.56 billion in 2011, about $140 million (3.2%)
higher than the $4.42 billion reported by the U.S. Geological
Survey (USGS) for 2010. The USGS ranked Utah third
among all states in the value of nonfuel mineral production in
2010 with 6.9% of the total.
2012 Outlook
About 70% of the companies surveyed for this assessment
plan to duplicate 2011 production in 2012 and nearly 20%
project slight to moderate increases. Only 10% of producers
plan diminished production. Consequently, the overall economic value of all mineral commodities in 2012 will be
strongly dependent on prices. As a group, production of base
and precious metals (about 73% of the total non-fuel mineral
value in 2011) will probably remain fairly stable. The aggregate price for all metals in 2012 will likely be similar to 2011,
so the value of these commodities will probably not change
significantly. Industrial mineral companies generally expect
to mirror 2011 production, although increased construction
might provide a boost. Prices for most industrial minerals
will probably remain relatively stable in 2012, so overall value
for this group will likely remain flat. If uranium production
and prices (currently well below the 2011 average) remain
stable as predicted, uranium values will decrease in 2012.
Therefore, the relative stability in production and price for
most non-fuel mineral commodities predicted for 2012 suggests that the overall value will not change significantly compared to the previous year.
2011 Summary
The value of mineral industry sectors in this preliminary assessment includes base metals (57%), industrial minerals
(26%), precious metals (16%), and uranium (1%). The value
for all sectors except base metals increased in 2011. The 4%
decrease in base metal values can be attributed primarily to a
substantial decrease in copper production that a moderately
higher unit price could not offset. Copper typically constitutes over 60% of base metal values, so the decrease significantly impacted this sector and the total nonfuel minerals
value. Production for most industrial minerals increased in
2011 as did many prices, allowing the groups value to increase almost 39%. Sulfuric acid, a by-product of copper
smelting, was not previously tracked, but even without tracking the acid, industrial mineral values were about 25% higher
Figure 27
Total Annual Value of Utahs Nonfuel Mineral Production
$5.0
4.42
$4.5
4.56
4.16
3.96
Billions of Dollars
$4.0
3.90
3.88
$3.5
$3.0
2.79
$2.5
1.94
$2.0
1.68
$1.5
1.43
1.32
1.29
1998
1999
1.36
1.24
1.35
$1.0
1997
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: U.S. Geological Survey; estimate by the Utah Geological Survey
36
Industry Focus
UT
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
e = estimate
the weak economy, high unemployment, continued housing

market weakness, stock market uncertainty, and transportation weakness, but tourism industry experts forecast limited
growth nationally in 2012. Utah tourism is expected to show
a modest increase in travel. In-state and domestic leisure
travel could experience slow but steady growth.
Tourism
Overview
Utahs travel and tourism sector had a positive year in an economically uncertain 2011. Regional and in-state travel was an
estimated 20.2 million people, up 4.2% in 2011. The Utah ski
industry experienced the second best season on record with
4,233,064 skier days.
Additionally, travelers continue to show strong interest in

national parks, from which Utah should benefit. Several of
Utah's resorts again received high rankings from major ski
publications and hope to build on the 2010-2011 season.
During 2011, for the sixth year in a row, national park visitation was up from the previous year, as of November 2011.
National park visitation was up an estimated 1.2% or 6.1 million in 2011. State park visitation was up an estimated 1.3%
with visitation of 4.8 million in 2011.
Competition among nearby destinations for the local and

regional markets will continue to intensify. National trends
highlight opportunities in key segments of the travel market
including adventure travel, cultural and heritage tourism, nature-based travel, and family travel. Utah is well positioned to
attract these visitors.
2012 Outlook
The outlook for 2012 is cautiously optimistic. Travel among
in-state and domestic leisure travelers could maintain its current pace, or possibly increase. There are still concerns about
Figure 28
Total Utah Skier Visits
5
3.90
Millions of Visits
4
3.11
3
2.75
2.84 2.81
3.10 3.10
2.95 3.04
2.96
4.06 4.08
4.25
3.97 4.05
4.22
3.43
3.28
2.98
3.14
2.56
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
Ski Season
Source: Ski Utah
UT
Industry Focus
37

2012 Economic Outlook (State of Utah)

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E C O N O M I C

Utah Governors Office of Planning and Budget

Overview of the EconomyUtah typically grows

Utah Economic Indicators: 2010-2012

6th 212.7 per 100,000 people

Governors Office of Planning and Budget

Employment and Wages

EmploymentTotal Nonfarm employment increased by

Total Nonfarm Wages (2012f)

Average Annual Wage (2012f)

Total Personal Income (2012f)

Per Capita Personal Income (2012f)

Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry

Total Nonfarm Jobs

T rade, Trans., Utilities

Professional & Business Services

Education & Health Services

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services e = estimate f = forecast

2011 Census Bureau National and State Population EstimatesAt the

Governors Office of Planning and Budget

Utah Governors Office of Planning and Budget

for the most recent year or period available. There may be a

Statistics for States and Counties. This report focuses on

Statistics Used in This Report. The statistical contents of

2012 Economic Outlook

2012 Economic Outlook

Figures & Tables

2012 Economic Outlook

Figures & Tables

Governor's Office of Planning and Budget

Department of Workforce Services

Governor's Office of Economic Development

Department of Natural ResourcesUtah Geological Survey

2012 Economic Outlook

Cover Photo courtesy of Effie Johnson

2012 Economic Outlook

2012 Economic Outlook

Employment grew 1.0% in 2011, or 1.3 million jobs, barely

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Global Insight e = estimate f = forecast

2011 Economic Outlook

overseas, and steadily increasing

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Global Insight f = forecast

2011 Economic Outlook

During the typical recession, households and businesses put

Most forecasters anticipate housing starts will remain near

Source: Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis

2011 Economic Outlook

Since the financial crisis of 2008, the Euro-system has been

Briefly unable to borrow

Source: Governors Office of Planning and Budget f = forecast

2011 Economic Outlook

Employment is expected to grow 1.1% for the year as a

2011 Economic Outlook

and 1.8%, respectively, or 500,000 jobs. The end of federal

131,794 129,822 131,128 132,630

2011 Economic Outlook

Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of

2011 Economic Outlook

creased 4.9%. These figures are in nominal terms. In real

homebuyer credit expired. With growing employment,

Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

2011 Economic Outlook

The Federal Reserve Bank

Source: Moodys Analytics