How to Trade with Acceleration Bands

Price Headley, CFA, CMT BigTrends.com Definition: I founded BigTrends.com back in 1999, having developed Acceleration Bands to serve as a trading envelope that factors in a stock's typical volatility over a standard setting of 20 bars. They can be used across any time frame, though I prefer to use them mostly across weekly and monthly timeframes as breakout indicators outside these bands, while using the shorter time frames to define likely support and resistance levels at the lower and upper Acceleration Bands. Acceleration Bands are plotted around a simple moving average as the midpoint, and the upper and lower bands are of equal distance from this midpoint. Interpretation: The principle of Acceleration is one of the most critical lessons that active traders must learn. Stock traders need to get the best bang for their buck. They desire to rotate capital to the best performing stocks quickly and then rotate out of those stocks when the acceleration period ends. The goal is to keep moving your capital into the best-performing stocks. And option buyers especially need to be in the best trending stocks, as the time lost while holding an option can best be overcome by stocks that move sharply in the anticipated direction. We want to achieve maximum movement in the stock over the least amount of time possible.

I started my trading career focused on trendlines as a way to buy stocks at important support points and sell stocks at resistance points. As my trading progressed, I noticed that the biggest winners were the stocks that broke out and never gave you a chance to buy them back at support. I believe that the best profits come from the parabolic stock moves. These are the stocks that don't give you easy chances to get into them - what some might call "runaway" situations. Based on years of research and monitoring the profiles of these stocks, I noticed that these runaway stocks have several factors in common: 1. They are usually in growth industries, like technology, communications, biotechnology and health care. 2. Earnings are usually growing at very fast rates, typically 30% or more and many times at 100% or more. 3. Some amount of media debate about the company's future prospects - the best scenario is to find a stock that is getting attention for being "overvalued" - I often find that Acceleration Stocks often get more overvalued until the crowd recognizes the stock as a clear winner. 4. Usually there is a breakout to a new high over the prior 50-bar high - these breakouts have the most longevity in my experience. Most investors like to buy stocks near their 52-week low and hope it returns to the 52-week high. Historically, the studies I have done show that over 80% of the leaders for the next 12 months were typically within 15% of their highs when their upside breakouts began. After studying many different indicators to find where this "breakout point" appeared to reside in most stocks, I developed my Acceleration Bands indicator. There are several things I can tell you about it here publicly (subscribers to my daily services get access to the actual Acceleration Bands formula):

1. Usually consider looking at the last 20 bars on the Acceleration Bands - on a daily chart this incorporates roughly the last month's trading activity, while on a weekly chart this covers 4-1/2 months and a monthly chart just over 1-1/2 years of price action. 2. The upper and lower Acceleration Bands are plotted equidistant from the simple 20-period simple moving average (the middle blue line in the charts below). A daily chart shows a 20-day moving average, and a weekly chart plots a 20-week moving average. 3. Acceleration Bands adjust for a stock's volatility - the more volatile the stock's price action over the last 20 periods, the wider the bands will be around the moving average. 4. Once the security sees two consecutive closes above the upper Acceleration Band, this is considered a buy signal - on trending stocks this will often lead to a major upside Acceleration move - on choppy trading range stocks, this will often be a headfake - BigTrends uses historical data which it shares with subscribers to show which stocks have performed the best (and the worst) based on several entry and exit rules. 5. One close back into the Acceleration Band signals a traditional exit of the trade, as the Acceleration period is now likely to end. First, let's look at a daily chart of CMGI from late-1999 and early 2000. An Acceleration Buy signal was given on the second straight close above the upper Acceleration Band on November 18, 1999 at 63.03, with the entry coming at the next morning's open at 63.25. As you can see, this upper Acceleration Band acted as impressive support on a closing basis, with the stock holding on a closing basis on several key tests, with the stock finally closing under the upper Acceleration Band on December 30, 2000 at 134.41. Therefore, the systems exit signal came on the next morning's opening at 135.25. However, in this case, I used a covered call strategy to lock in profits on this position. At the same time I was able to delay for a few weeks my realized gain of over 100% until the next tax year, thus allowing these gains to compound for an extra 12 months before paying the tax man.

CMGI Daily Chart with Acceleration Bands

(CMGI): 1999-2000

BIGTRENDS

For a bearish example, lets look at the aptly-named and now defunct Bear Stearns (BSC). The chart shows the 20-day Acceleration Bands, used in conjunction with the Williams Percent Range indicator (used the BigTrends way). You can see the first break below the lower band led to a brief but sharp decline at the start of 2008, with the 2nd Acceleration break down signal coming within 7 days of the companys massive plunge that took the stock down from the 60s down to less than $4 per share. This emphasizes the point that accelerations on the downside can be even more dramatic in shorter bursts than the bull side, as the panic reaction can ensue quickly when the support is lost below the lower band.

Bear Stearns (BSC) Daily Chart with Acceleration Bands

2008 Bear Stearns (BSC) BEARISH

BIGTRENDS

Acceleration Bands vs. Bollinger Bands

I receive plenty of questions from BigTrends students about the difference between Bollinger Bands and Acceleration Bands. There was a time when I would only say use Bollinger Bands on trading range markets and use Acceleration Bands on trending markets. The fact that Bollinger Bands race to catch up more quickly when a stock breaks outside the bands led to my creation of Acceleration Bands, as I wanted a band that could act as a trailing stop for a big trend on the upside or the downside. But now I actually like to watch both of these bands on the same chart. Take the weekly chart of the Research in Motion (RIMM), the maker of the Blackberry smartphone. Look at RIMM with 20week Bollinger Bands (in blue, with plus and minus two standard deviations, plotted on each side of the simple 20-week average). Then I also plot the 20-week Acceleration Bands, shown in green (with the 20-week moving average in red on the same chart). Note how the break to the upside outside the Acceleration Bands is also confirmed by the Bollinger Bands racing quickly to catch up to the move outside those bands. Ideally I like to see the upper Bollinger Band breaking above the upper Acceleration Band to define the potential for a strong trend move. Some call this a volatility expansion phase (aka a big trend to the upside!). In contrast, when the Bollinger Bands are trading inside the Acceleration Bands, you have a more defined trading range market. This certainly affects the type of strategy you want to use, though I tend to rotate my capital on to the next big trend, rather than getting stuck fooling around with relatively small moves in between the bands in a trading range. The close is the point on the chart where I determine whether to hold the position or exit. So on a weekly chart I want to wait until the close at the end of the week, usually on Friday. This takes more patience during the week than most traders are accustomed to, but it often results in being able to stay with the best trades longer than the rest of the crowd.

Research in Motion (RIMM) Weekly with Bollinger Bands and Acceleration Bands

Bollinger Bands are also quicker to turn, which can signal a change in trend. Notice how the upper Bollinger Band turned up above the upper Acceleration Band right as big moves were often starting. Realize that the Bollinger Band will quickly encompass the price action, though there can often be plenty more potential to the move as long as Bollinger bands stay outside the Acceleration Bands. In comparison, Acceleration Bands are slower to react. This might seem like a detriment, but in past trending markets this has served to keep me on big moves while also knowing to exit if the stock had a break of the Bollinger Band back inside the Acceleration Band to end a major trend move. Generally the lower band will act as support, as it did in October, while the upper band should act as resistance. But it is the breakouts outside of these bands that lead to the best trends. Now that I use both Bollinger and Acceleration Bands together, I find that I can even more clearly define whether the market is trending or stuck in a range. The real opportunity is in finding the big trends, which give you and your portfolio the best bang for your buck typically, in a relatively short time compared to the magnitude of the move.