RIVER RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS

River Res. Applic. 18: 287298 (2002) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/rra.672

IMPLICATIONS OF FLOOD PULSE RESTORATION FOR POPULUS REGENERATION ON THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER
KEN D. BOVEE* AND MICHAEL L. SCOTT
US Geological Survey, Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, 4512 McMurry Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80525-3400, USA

ABSTRACT We developed a mass balance ow model to reconstruct unregulated daily peak ows in the National Wild and Scenic reach of the Missouri River, Montana. Results indicated that although the observed frequency of large peak ows has not changed in the post-dam period, their magnitude has been reduced from 40 to 50% as a consequence of ow regulation. Reductions in the magnitude of these ows should reduce the expected frequency of large ood-pulses over a longer time-scale. Results of a two-dimensional hydraulic model indicated that limited cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. Monilifera) recruitment occurs at relatively small peak discharges, but to maximize establishment of cottonwoods in the Wild and Scenic reach, a threshold of 1850 m3 /s would be necessary at the Virgelle gauge. Floods of this magnitude or greater lead to establishment of cottonwood seedlings above the zone of frequent ice-drive disturbance. Restoring the frequency, magnitude, duration and timing of these ood pulses would benet important natural resource values including riparian cottonwood forests and native sh species in the upper Missouri River basin. However, efforts to naturalize ow must be made in the context of a water management system that was authorized and constructed for the primary purposes of ood control, power generation and irrigation. Using the synthesized ow model and ood damage curves, we examined six scenarios for delivering ows 1850 m3 /s to the Wild and Scenic reach. Whereas some scenarios appeared to be politically and economically infeasible, our analysis suggested that there is enough operational exibility in the system to restore more natural ood pulses without greatly compromising other values. Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KEY WORDS:

ood routing; ow mass balance; ood pulse; ow restoration; Populus; riparian forests; Missouri River

INTRODUCTION Throughout the northern hemisphere, dams have substantially altered riverine ecosystems through fragmentation of once-continuous river corridors and modication of natural ow regimes (Dynesis and Nilsson, 1994). There are over 75 000 dams in the continental United States capable of storing signicant amounts of sediment and water (Graf, 1999). Construction of large dams and reservoirs, primarily between the 1950s and 1980s, has provided valuable goods and services for irrigation, power generation, ood protection, and recreational opportunities. However, the magnitude of unanticipated costs associated with the alteration of downstream riverine and riparian ecosystems has only begun to be appreciated (Graf, 1999). It is now evident, for example, that the ecological integrity of riparian ecosystems throughout western North America is threatened by widespread water management activities that have altered natural patterns of sediment and stream ow (Johnson et al., 1976; Rood and Mahoney, 1990; Ligon et al., 1995; Stanford et al., 1996; Graf, 1999). Ecological deterioration or loss of riverine and riparian resources can be the direct result of the modication of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and change-rate of ow (Poff, 1997). However, full restoration of natural, regionally specic stream ow patterns along large, ow-controlled rivers may not be possible, and ow prescriptions for natural resource values must be made in the context of competing economic and social values (Schmidt et al., 1998). Thus, efforts to conserve and restore ow-dependent natural resources along regulated rivers must include a quantitative understanding of the extent to which natural ows have been
* Correspondence to: Ken D. Bovee, US Geological Survey, Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, 4512 McMurry Ave., Fort Collins, CO 80525-3400, USA. E-mail: Ken Bovee@usgs.gov

Received 13 February 2001 Revised 18 June 2001 Accepted 25 June 2001 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

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altered. This knowledge is important in understanding how hydrologic events, such as oods, drive specic ecological processes, such as establishment and survival of riparian cottonwoods (Populus spp.) (Mahoney and Rood, 1998). The primary objective of this work was to develop and test a strategy to implement larger ood pulses to sustain cottonwood forests and other natural resource values under existing economic and water management constraints. This was accomplished by synthesizing a daily hydrograph for the post-dam period (19571998), that represented annual peak discharges that would have occurred under unregulated ow conditions at various hydrologic nodes in the system. We then compared benets and liabilities under conditions of recorded and unregulated annual peak discharges for the post-dam period.

STUDY AREA Because of its historic signicance, remote character, and scenic qualities, a 240 km reach of the upper Missouri River in Montana was designated Wild and Scenic in 1976 (US Department of the Interior, 1993). Subsequent public concern over the apparent lack of cottonwood reproduction throughout the Wild and Scenic reach focused in part on the possible inuence of two upstream dams: Canyon Ferry on the Missouri River, and Tiber on the Marias River, a major tributary (Figure 1). Cottonwood recruitment in the study reach is chiey dependent on episodic, large ood pulses. A majority of sampled cottonwood stems >1 m in height (55%) established in the year of a spring snowmelt ood exceeding 1400 m3 /s at the Fort Benton gauge (US
Marias River Tiber Reservoir
Shelby Chester

Fort Peck Reservoir

Virgelle Missouri River

Teton River
Dutton Augusta Vaughn

Fort Benton

Sun River
Continental Divide Holter

Great Falls Smith River

Wild and Scenic Reach

Canyon Ferry Reservoir

Jefferson River

Toston

Missouri River
KILOMETERS 20 0 20 40 60 80
H H H H

Gallatin River

10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 MILES

Madison River

Map Location

Figure 1. Map of the upper Missouri River basin, showing locations of major reservoirs, tributaries and hydrologic nodes used in the hydrograph synthesis Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. River Res. Applic. 18: 287298 (2002)

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Geological Survey (USGS) gauge 06090800), or in the following two years. An additional 17% established following an ice-related ood in March 1978. Approximately 30% of the cottonwoods in the study reach established in non-ood years, typically in locations protected from ice disturbance, such as the downstream ends of channel islands or tributary fans (Scott et al., 1997). Spring oods >1400 m3 /s at Fort Benton have an estimated average recurrence interval of 9.3 years and establish seedlings above the zone of frequent ice-drive disturbance observed along large, northern Great Plains rivers (Smith, 1980; Auble and Scott, 1998). Meteorological and physiographic contributions to large ood pulses Widespread and intense rainstorms along the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains in northern Montana, USA, and southern Alberta, Canada, are characteristic of the climatic history of the upper Missouri River basin. Records indicate a period from 20 May through June when atmospheric conditions are most likely to contribute to heavy rainfall in central Montana (US Weather Bureau, 1960). Heavy rainstorms have been directly involved in historical oods on the upper Missouri in 1894, 1906, 1908, 1916, 1927, 1938, 1948, 1953 and 1964. Although antecedent conditions of snowmelt runoff and rain-soaked soils contributed in varying degrees to these oods, they have been primarily rain-induced (Dightman, 1973). The elements necessary to produce heavy rain in the upper Missouri basin include (1) a source of warm, moist air, (2) vertical lifting of this air mass by a combination of large and medium-scale atmospheric processes, which are (3) sustained over a period of hours or days. In previous ood-producing rainstorms, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico produced rainfall totals of up to 40 cm over a two to three day period. The sustained vertical lifting of air necessary to produce the intensity of precipitation observed in these storms resulted from a combination of three factors. First, orographic lifting occurred as warm, moist upslope winds encountered the steep slopes of local mountain ranges east of the Continental Divide. Second, air at the surface and aloft near the storm centres converged horizontally and formed vortexes. Third, frontal lifting resulted when the warm air mass was forced over colder air at the surface (Dightman, 1950; US Geological Survey, 1957; Bonner and Stermitz, 1967).

METHODS Peak ow synthesis We obtained daily discharge data for stations upstream from the major ood-control reservoirs (hereafter termed headwater nodes) and used a time-lagged mass balance model (Dunne and Leopold, 1978) to route daily ows to downstream nodes (hereafter termed collector nodes; Figure 1). We used USGS gauging station records for all headwater and collector nodes, except for the Sun River above Gibson Reservoir. We also used USGS data for the Augusta station on the Sun River (USGS gauge 00608000) to determine travel time from Gibson Reservoir to Vaughn (USGS gauge 06089000). However, USGS records for the Augusta gauge were not available for the subject period of record, 19571999. For the Sun River headwater node, we obtained reservoir inow data from the Bureau of Reclamations HYDROMET database (November 2000, from <www.gp.usbr.gov/hydromet.htm>). Our downstream-most collector node was the USGS gauge at Virgelle (06109500). This gauge is near the upstream boundary of the Wild and Scenic reach, but downstream from the Marias River conuence. To properly time the arrival of discharges from the headwaters to collector nodes, and ultimately to the gauge at Virgelle, it was necessary to determine the travel time between nodes. We used a graphical analysis of individual ow events to make this determination, and concentrated on the snowmelt hydrograph that extended from about 1 May to 15 July. Individual runoff spikes and troughs were more discernible during this period. We identied a spike or trough that occurred at adjacent nodes and estimated the inter-nodal time lag to the nearest whole day from the daily ow hydrograph (Figure 2). We each performed this analysis independently for all overlapping records throughout the stream gauging network and were in agreement on 88% of the runoff hydrographs examined. The remaining 12% were further resolved by assessing only those portions of the hydrograph with clear, distinctive ow events.
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Figure 2. Example runoff hydrographs for the Marias River at Shelby and the Missouri River at Fort Benton and Virgelle. The spike at Virgelle corresponds to that at Shelby, lagged by two days, with little effect from the Fort Benton contribution

Individual spikes and troughs in the hydrograph were usually very discrete, so errors associated with the actual travel time on an hourly or sub-hourly time step were not considered problematic. However, our use of average daily ows instead of instantaneous ows will result in an underestimation of the true annual peak ow at any node in the system. A discharge-dependent variable lag in some of the longer inter-nodal reaches was observed, even at a daily time step. For these reaches, we used a simple IF-THEN rule to apply a differential lag, depending on the discharge at the inow. Inter-nodal reaches, distances, travel times, and IF-THEN conditions are listed in Table I. To realistically simulate unregulated discharge at each collector node, it was necessary to estimate unmeasured ow accretions (gains) and depletions (losses) between nodes. Using the time-lagged mass balance model to estimate ow at upstream nodes, we compared ow differentials between nodes using the collector node immediately downstream. During the peak runoff period, ow accretions predominated (e.g. from ungauged tributaries). In contrast, ow depletions, such as bank storage losses, occurred 26% of the time with an average depletion equalling 5.2% of total ow. The nal ow synthesis involved summing the lagged inows from the upstream nodes and the inter-nodal accretion or depletions for each collector node. For example, given an inow greater than 170 m3 /s at the Toston gauge (USGS gauge 06054500), the average daily discharge at the Great Falls gauge (USGS gauge 06090300) was calculated as: QGF,t = QTST,(t3) + QGIB,(t1) ACC(Holter-GreatFalls)
Table I. Travel times and IF-THEN conditions for hydrologic nodes in the upper Missouri River system From Shelby Shelby Chester Chester Ft. Benton Dutton Great Falls Augusta Vaughn Holter Holter Toston Toston To Virgelle Virgelle Virgelle Virgelle Virgelle Virgelle Ft. Benton Vaughn Great Falls Great Falls Great Falls Holter Holter River Marias Marias Marias Marias Missouri Teton Missouri Sun Sun-Missouri Missouri Missouri Missouri Missouri Length (km) 220 220 133 133 53 131 50 111 39 139 139 128 128 Lag (days) 2 3 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 2 2 3 Conditions Shelby Q > 85 m3 /s Shelby Q < 85 m3 /s Chester Q > 85 m3 /s Chester Q < 85 m3 /s All Q All Q All Q All Q All Q Holter Q > 170 m3 /s Holter Q < 170 m3 /s Toston Q > 170 m3 /s Toston Q < 170 m3 /s
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where QGF is the average daily ow at the Great Falls gauge for day t, QTST,(t3) was the average daily ow at Toston three days earlier, QGIB,(t1) was the inow to Gibson Reservoir (Sun River) the previous day, and ACC(Holter-GreatFalls) was the empirical accretion between Holter and Great Falls for day t. Depletions were computed as negative accretions. Owing to the presence of Canyon Ferry Reservoir, we were unable to calculate an empirical accretion for the reach between Toston and Holter. For day t, Great Falls then became an upstream node to be lagged and summed appropriately with inows from the Marias and Teton Rivers and the accretion from Great Falls to Virgelle. Once the synthesized daily ow hydrograph had been constructed for the 1 May31 July runoff period, the maximum value for the period was recorded as the unregulated daily peak discharge.

Determination of thresholds Flows 1400 m3 /s as measured at the Fort Benton gauge were signicantly associated with the successful recruitment of cottonwood stands within the Wild and Scenic reach (Scott et al., 1997). However, because the Marias River joins the Missouri below Fort Benton, we chose the gauge at Virgelle to represent ow conditions in the Wild and Scenic reach (Figure 1). We correlated ows between these two gauges to identify the magnitude of stand-producing ows for cottonwood downstream of Virgelle.

Flow restoration We used the results from a two-dimensional hydraulic simulation model (Ghanem et al., 1994, 1996) and interpretation of aerial photographs to evaluate the effectiveness of different peak ows in establishing cottonwoods within the Wild and Scenic reach (USGS, unpublished data). The section of river we examined extended from the conuence of Arrow Creek downstream for a distance of approximately 9 km. A 1 : 40 000scale aerial photograph (1996 National Aerial Photogrammetry Program) of the reach was scanned and orth-rectied into the same map coordinate system used in the hydraulic models. Polygons of cottonwood canopy area were digitized from the photographic image, and superimposed with the water surface prole predicted by the hydraulic models. The effectiveness of a particular discharge for establishing stands of cottonwoods was measured as the union of its water surface with cottonwood polygons. In essence, we used existing stands of mature cottonwoods as a measure of the water stage necessary to inundate locations where there had been long-term cottonwood survival. To assess potential liabilities associated with augmenting ood peaks to the Wild and Scenic reach, we used ood damage curves developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers (B. Peake, US Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha District, personal communication, May 1999) for the Missouri, Sun and Marias Rivers downstream from Holter, Gibson and Tiber Dams, respectively (Figure 3). We used these ood damage curves to examine several reservoir release scenarios designed to deliver a cottonwood-establishment ow to the Virgelle gauge (Table II). We then calculated the difference in estimated ood damages that would have resulted from each release scenario compared with ood damages resulting from observed ows in the same year. Scenario 0 was a no regulation alternative, represented by the unregulated peak ow synthesis. This alternative could result from removal of Canyon Ferry and Tiber Dams, or their operation as run-of-river (outow = inow) facilities. Scenario 1 examined the delivery of mitigation ows to Virgelle (given historic releases and accretions from all other sources) solely from Canyon Ferry Dam. Under Scenario 2, the delivery of mitigation ows was distributed among Canyon Ferry Dam, Gibson Dam (Sun River) and Tiber Dam. Tiber Dam was the sole source of mitigation ows under Scenario 3. Scenarios 4 and 5 examined the outcomes of reducing releases from Canyon Ferry, with increased delivery of mitigation ows from Tiber Dam (Scenario 4) and from Tiber and Gibson Dams combined (Scenario 5). Table II summarizes the operational conditions for each facility and scenario.
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Figure 3. Flood damage curves for inter-nodal segments of the Missouri, Sun and Marias Rivers (source: US Army Corps of Engineers, Planning Division, Omaha District, March 1999)

Table II. Reservoir release scenarios to achieve minimum threshold discharge of 1850 m3 /s to the Wild and Scenic reach of the upper Missouri River Scenario 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5
a Delivers

Year All 1975a 1981 1995 1997 1975a 1981 1995 1997 1975a 1981 1995 1997 1975a 1981 1995 1997 1975a 1981 1995 1997

Canyon Ferry Outow = inow Add 62 m3 /s Add 400 m3 /s Add 1096 m3 /s Add 640 m3 /s Same as historic Same as historic Add 283 m3 /s Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Reduce 142 m3 /s Reduce 142 m3 /s Reduce 283 m3 /s Same as historic Reduce 142 m3 /s Reduce 142 m3 /s Reduce 142 m3 /s

Gibson Outow = inow Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Add 142 m3 /s Add 71 m3 /s Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Add 85 m3 /s Add 142 m3 /s Add 142 m3 /s

Tiber Outow = inow Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Same as historic Add 62 m3 /s Add 400 m3 /s Add 578 m3 /s Add 569 m3 /s Add 62 m3 /s Add 400 m3 /s Add 1096 m3 /s Add 640 m3 /s Add 62 m3 /s Add 547 m3 /s Add 1144 m3 /s Add 923 m3 /s Add 62 m3 /s Add 462 m3 /s Add 1096 m3 /s Add 640 m3 /s

Q > 2000 m3 /s to Virgelle.

RESULTS Peak ow synthesis and cottonwood establishment For the period 1935 to 1999, a discharge of 1400 m3 /s at Fort Benton corresponded to a discharge of 1850 m3 /s at Virgelle. Thus, a discharge of 1850 m3 /s was chosen to represent the minimum discharge threshold needed to establish cottonwoods at elevations where they are likely to survive future ice-drive disturbance.
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Figure 4. Comparison of synthesized and recorded maximum daily discharges at the Virgelle gauge

A comparison of synthesized and measured maximum daily discharges at the Virgelle gauge indicated that ow regulation in the post-dam period has reduced the magnitude of peak ows in the Wild and Scenic portion of the upper Missouri River. This reduction was especially pronounced for large ow peaks, and reected the effectiveness of ood control provided by the dams (Figure 4). For example, unregulated maximum daily discharge at Virgelle in 1964 was estimated to have been 5759 m3 /s. The recorded maximum daily discharge for this event was 2737 m3 /s, or a reduction of 52%. This ood included the failure of Swift dam on Birch Creek and Lower Two Medicine Dam on Two Medicine River following heavy rains in the upper Marias River basin. During this event, Tiber reservoir recorded a peak inow of 5660 m3 /s (Bonner and Stermitz, 1967). Similarly, the maximum daily discharge in 1975 was reduced by 41%. Flow effectiveness Our analysis of the potential effectiveness of different peak discharges to establish mature stands of cottonwoods indicated that very large oods may not be much more effective than smaller, less damaging events (Figure 5). For example, the peak ow of 1964 (2737 m3 /s) inundated only about 8% more canopied area than the peak ow of 1975 (1984 m3 /s) and 9.5% more than the target ow of 1850 m3 /s. The potential effectiveness of ows to establish cottonwoods declined rapidly for peak ows less than about 1450 m3 /s. However, some trees apparently established at discharges as low as 838 m3 /s, particularly on alluvial fans at tributary junctions.

Figure 5. Inundation area coinciding with existing cottonwood canopy at six simulated discharges in a section of the Wild and Scenic reach Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. River Res. Applic. 18: 287298 (2002)

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Figure 6. Comparison of ood damage indices for six alternative upper Missouri River reservoir release scenarios. The ood damage index is the difference between damage estimates for the scenario and damage estimates for oods that occurred historically

Flow restoration The best opportunities to mitigate the effects of ow regulation at Virgelle were in 1975, 1981, 1995 and 1997 when the unregulated inow at Virgelle exceeded or was nearly sufcient to meet the 1850 m3 /s target ow (Figure 4). Results of the ve ow mitigation scenarios provided some insights into the feasibility and risks associated with management of the upper Missouri River reservoirs (Figure 6). Scenario 0 (no regulation) showed the contribution that US Bureau of Reclamation Reservoirs provided with respect to ood damage protection in the upper basin. In the ve years examined, the ood damage benets exceeded $66 million, in 1998 US dollars. Attenuation of the 1964 ood alone averted over $26 million in ood damages. Scenario 1 (ows augmented from Canyon Ferry) would have resulted in a considerable increase in ood damage in 1981 ($3.8 M), 1995 ($9.5 M) and 1997 ($5.9 M) because mitigation ows would have been routed through a major metropolitan area in the vicinity of Great Falls. Scenarios 3, 4 and 5 caused the least ood damage. In each of these scenarios, the primary source of mitigation ows was from Tiber Reservoir. Scenarios 4 and 5 would have resulted in less ood damage in 1981 ($4.2 M and $4.3 M, respectively) than what had occurred historically ($4.7 M), and produced modest increases in ood damage in 1997 ($4.3 M and $4.7 M, respectively, versus $3.8 M actual damages). Flood damage reductions resulting from these scenarios were a direct consequence of storing water in Canyon Ferry Reservoir instead of routing it through Great Falls.

DISCUSSION Flow regulation and cottonwood recruitment Throughout much of the Wild and Scenic reach of the Missouri River, lateral channel movement is constrained by side-valley sandstone and shale badlands. In constrained channel reaches the areal extent of cottonwood forest is limited (Hansen, 1989). Recruitment sites are typically small, scattered patches conned to elevated ood deposits created by infrequent ood pulses (Scott et al., 1996). Whereas cottonwood recruitment is not strictly ood dependent, the majority of forest area downstream of Virgelle (62%) was established in association with a small percentage of ood years (29%) in which ows equalled or exceeded a discharge of 1400 m3 /s at the Fort Benton gauge (Scott et al., 1997), or 1850 m3 /s for the period of record at the Virgelle gauge. At Virgelle, ows greater than 1850 m3 /s result in establishment of seedlings above the zone of frequent ice-drive disturbance (Auble and Scott, 1998), which has been shown to limit or preclude the establishment of cottonwood forest patches in ice-prone reaches along northern Great Plains rivers (Smith, 1980). Lack of cottonwood forest development along a braided reach of the Milk River in Montana has been attributed to frequent ice-drive disturbance, where because of low bank heights and
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a wide, straight channel, cottonwood stems are repeatedly bent, broken, sheared and toppled by ice blocks (Smith and Pearce, 2000). Reduced peak ows below Tiber Reservoir have reduced cottonwood seedling recruitment along the unconstrained channel of the Marias River, which is predicted to result in progressive riparian forest decline as mature trees die without replacement (Rood and Mahoney, 1995). Dam-related changes in the natural ow regime on the Marias River have contributed to the establishment and spread of the non-native tree Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) on moist low terraces and under mature cottonwood on higher terraces (Lesica and Miles, 1999). Because of differences in reproductive strategies, non-native species like Russian olive may replace native species like cottonwood and willow (Salix spp.) along ow-altered rivers (Shafroth et al., 1995; Stanford et al., 1996). Restoration of more natural peak ow regime below Tiber Dam may result in short-term removal of riparian vegetation that has established as a consequence of lower peak ows in the post-dam period. In addition, cottonwood forest recruitment would likely benet (Rood and Mahoney, 1995) as would other natural resources, such as riparian bird diversity (Scott et al., in press) and native sh species, including the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynclus albus) (Hesse et al., 1993). These resources are dependent upon natural variability in the frequency, magnitude, timing, duration and recession rates of annual ood pulses. Flow restoration remains a possibility in these reaches since there is currently little urban or industrial development on the bottomlands (Rood and Mahoney, 1995). Flow restoration Our analysis indicated that complete restoration of unregulated ows to the upper Missouri River basin would result in extensive and costly ood damage to existing urban and agricultural infrastructure. However, considerable restoration or enhancement of riverine and riparian ecosystems may be possible along regulated rivers by restoring more natural ow and temperature regimes (Stanford et al., 1996). In the 9 km reach we modelled, the amount of canopied area inundated in 1995 (peak discharge = 838 m3 /s) was 35% of the maximum in 1964 (peak discharge = 2737 m3 /s), which would indicate potential cottonwood recruitment at relatively small peak discharges. Canopied areas inundated at discharges less than 1850 m3 /s, however, were primarily associated with alluvial fans at the mouth of Arrow Creek and the mouths of gullies along the constrained channel. These locations appeared to be relatively protected from ice drives and would therefore represent safe sites having greater probabilities of seedling survival than more exposed sites. Locations along constrained channel reaches were typically not inundated by discharges lower than 1850 m3 /s. Under certain conditions, restoration of ecologically signicant ood pulses to the upper Missouri would be physically and economically feasible (Figure 6). The opportunity to augment ows occurs in years when accretions are relatively high in the Great FallsFort Benton reach (primarily from Belt and Highwood Creeks) and in the Teton River drainage (Figure 7). We suggest increasing ows from Tiber Reservoir when large runoff events occur in one or more of the Teton, Belt, Highwood or Smith River drainages. It should be noted, however, that successful mitigation ows will usually depend on a substantial discharge (1100 m3 /s) in the Missouri River at Great Falls. The Teton River may be an important factor in providing the operational exibility to restore ood pulses in this basin. The Teton, which has no dams, has historically produced large ood pulses at Virgelle (Figure 7). Because the Teton and Marias Rivers have adjacent watersheds, large runoff events in the Teton are often matched in the Marias. By monitoring real-time discharge at the accretion sources, it should be possible to release water from Tiber such that it arrives at Virgelle coincident with the runoff spikes from other streams. Also, emergency telemetering equipment could automatically alert dam operators of large inows at any or all of these nodes. The evidence that large oods in these basins are rain-induced may be used to advantage in a ow restoration strategy. Although individual heavy rainstorms are not entirely predictable, conditions favourable to such events are certainly recognizable. A key factor is the northwesterly movement of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into central Montana in late May and early June. Because these meteorological conditions are predicated on continental, and perhaps global, weather patterns, it may be possible to anticipate
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Figure 7. Time series of calculated maximum ow accretions in various segments of the upper Missouri River

to some degree the potential for effective ow restoration opportunities. It is conceivable that ood-producing rainstorms in Montana might be related to larger atmospheric cycles, such as the Southern Oscillation, as has been described for ecologically signicant wetdry periods in other regions (Swetnam and Betancort, 1998). Although ood pulse restoration using releases from Tiber Dam is conceptually feasible from a water supply and routing perspective, none of the alternatives we examined is risk-free. Each calls for very large releases, some exceeding 1000 m3 /s, from Tiber Dam. Maximum releases from Tiber are currently restricted for ood control to 283 m3 /s, the estimated bank-full discharge. Larger releases should be evaluated in light of their benets and liabilities. Legal and institutional considerations The ability to provide sufcient ows for ecological values like cottonwoods, birds and endemic shes hinges in part on whether the US Bureau of Reclamation can incorporate such releases in the operation of Canyon Ferry and Tiber dams. Consideration of a more naturalized ow regime must recognize existing physical and economic constraints imposed by dam design, and operational limitations related to the original purposes of the dams such as ood control, irrigation and power generation. Ultimately, societys choice of resource values will drive future resource management goals in the upper Missouri River basin. In that context, an informed public debate on future management goals must rely on a clear, scientic understanding of what the long-term implications of various water management scenarios mean for a range of resource values (Schmidt et al., 1998). In order for ood pulse restoration to be feasible over the long term, two conditions would need to be in place. First, it would be imperative to restrict oodplain development along the Marias River below Tiber Dam. The ood control constraints on Canyon Ferry resulting from oodplain development along the Missouri River in the Great Falls area amply support this contention (Figures 3 and 6). Second, a mechanism would be needed to compensate existing riparian landowners for damages resulting from large releases from Tiber Dam. In addition, ows greater than approximately 500 m3 /s (equivalent to the 10-year ood), if released too frequently, could result in channel enlargement (Dunne and Leopold, 1978). Channel changes resulting from enlargement could have serious repercussions for other aspects of the river, including its potential impacts on sheries and shorebird habitat, bank erosion, and hazards to infrastructure such as bridges and roads (Bovee et al., 1998). Limits on more natural peak ows also are constrained by basin-wide ood control considerations. To illustrate, with an above-average April snow pack and heavy rains in late May of 1997, inows to Lake Elwell reached 264 m3 /s on 27 May and releases were gradually increased to 125 m3 /s on 17 June. Because of record high inows to downstream reservoirs operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers, however, the Bureau of Reclamation was instructed to reduce ows from Tiber. Thus, even though peak inows would not have caused local ooding had they been released (Bureau of Reclamation, December, 2000 at <http://www.gp.usbr.gov/aop/um/97/lerus97.htm>), that option was removed by ood control policies.
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Another risk associated with supplying large pulse ows from Tiber Reservoir is related to changes in reservoir operations that would be necessary to provide the release. In a normal ood control operation, reservoir storage is drawn down prior to the runoff period to reserve storage for ood detention. This operating policy would need to be changed in order to take advantage of the opportunistic ood pulse strategy we have described. Although Tiber has the capability to release over 2000 m3 /s, capacity of the outlet gates is approximately 133 m3 /s. To achieve a pulse ow of more than 133 m3 /s, it would be necessary to release the remainder from the gated spillway. One of two conditions would be required in order to make such a release: (1) water for mitigation ows would need to be stored ahead of time behind the spillway gate, or (2) inow from the Marias River must greatly exceed the ood storage pool, necessitating a spill. Neither of these scenarios may be acceptable to the Bureau of Reclamation, and may not be possible under present operating rules. Maintaining the management exibility to restore more natural ows will require modication of the current operating policies of at least some of the system reservoirs, or revision of the Corps of Engineers Flood Control Manual. Ultimately, changes in operation to benet natural resource values may need to be reviewed as part of an Environmental Impact Statement under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).

CONCLUSIONS Flow regulation in the upper Missouri River basin has reduced the magnitude of infrequent, large ood pulses by as much as 40 to 50%. Reducing the observed frequency of ood pulses >1850 m3 /s is expected to limit successful cottonwood recruitment. Floods of this magnitude establish cottonwood seedlings above the zone of frequent ice-drive disturbance throughout constrained channel reaches of the Wild and Scenic Missouri River. A target pulse ow of 1850 m3 /s appears to be efcient for cottonwood recruitment. Larger peak ows do not inundate substantially greater areas of mature cottonwoods in the Wild and Scenic reach, but can cause serious ood damage along the upper Missouri. Cottonwood recruitment occurs at ows less than 1850 m3 /s, but appears to be conned to locations that are sheltered from ice-drive disturbance. Our results further suggest that restoration of more natural ood pulses to benet cottonwoods and other natural resource values is physically and economically feasible, using opportunistic releases from Tiber Dam. The operational policies of the US Bureau of Reclamation would have to be modied, however, in order to take full advantage of opportunities provided by episodic, high runoff events. Mechanisms for limiting future development on oodplains and compensating existing landowners for property loss and ood liabilities along the Missouri and Marias Rivers would ultimately need to be part of a comprehensive basin-wide approach to ow restoration.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Funding for this study was provided in part by the Montana Area Ofce of the US Bureau of Reclamation and the US Geological Survey. Bob Bergantino offered insight into the geology of the upper Missouri River basin. Greg Auble, W. Carter Johnson, Lee Lamb, Patrick Shafroth, and an anonymous reviewer provided valuable comments on earlier drafts of this document.

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Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Res. Applic. 18: 287298 (2002)