3QFY2012 Result Update | Banking

February 1, 2012

ICICI Bank
Performance Highlights

Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUY
CMP Target Price
2QFY12 2,506 2,354 1,503 % chg (qoq) 8.2 14.2 15.0 3QFY11 2,312 2,343 1,437 % chg (yoy) 17.3 14.7 20.3

`888 `1,061
12 Months

3QFY12 2,712 2,687 1,728

Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code

Banking 102,371 1.4 1,138/641 5,13,023 10 17,301 5,199 ICBK.BO ICICIBC@IN

For 3QFY2012, ICICI Bank posted a healthy set of numbers with net profit growing by 20.3% yoy to `1,728cr, which were above street estimates.
Marginal sequential increase in overall NIMs driven by expansion in overseas NIMs and improvement in asset quality were the key highlights of the results. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Improvement in NIMs and asset quality: Advances for the bank increased by 5.2% qoq (19.1% yoy). Deposits accretion also showed traction, registering a growth of 6.3% qoq (a muted 19.7% yoy). CASA deposits growth was healthy at 18.0% yoy, driven by a 26.4% yoy increase in current account deposits (strong 21.3% qoq). Saving account deposits growth was relatively lower at 13.8% yoy (4.8% qoq). On account of sharp rise in current account deposits during 3QFY2012, CASA ratio for the bank increased by 148bp qoq to 43.6%. Domestic NIMs improved marginally by 6bp to 3.0%; while, overseas NIM improved by 31bp qoq to 1.4%. During 3QFY2012, other income excluding treasury rose by a moderate 13.3% yoy (up a healthy 7.6% yoy) on the back of muted fee income growth of 4.7% yoy. The sequential rise in other income was mainly on account of `150cr of dividend income received from life insurance business for 1HFY2012. The banks asset

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 27.8 61.8 10.4

quality improved during 3QFY2012 with both gross and net NPA levels declining by 3.0% and 6.2% sequentially, respectively. The NPA coverage ratio remains healthy at 78.9%. The bank restructured `880cr worth of accounts
during 3QFY2012 taking the outstanding restructured book to `3,070cr. The bank is expecting ~`1,300cr of restructuring through CDR mechanism further in 4QFY2012, which will include accounts such as GTL and 3I InfoTech. Outlook and valuation: The banks substantial branch expansion in the past 24 months is expected to sustain a far more favourable deposit mix going forward. Moreover, a lower risk balance sheet has driven down NPA provisioning costs, which we believe will enable RoE of 14.5% by FY2013E (with further upside from financial leverage). At the CMP, the banks core banking business (after adjusting for subsidiaries) is trading at 1.7x FY2013E ABV (including subsidiaries, at 1.6x FY2013E ABV). We maintain Buy on the stock with a target price of `1,061.

Abs. (%) Sensex ICICI Bank

3m (1.0) (0.8)

1yr (4.0) (10.6)

3yr 90.8 130.8

Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

FY2010 8,114 (10.8) 4,025 17.6 2.4 36.1 24.6 2.0 1.0 9.7

FY2011 9,017 11.1 5,151 28.0 2.6 44.7 19.9 1.9 1.3 11.7

FY2012E 10,439 15.8 6,291 22.1 2.6 54.6 16.3 1.7 1.4 13.4

FY2013E 12,450 19.3 7,360 17.0 2.6 63.9 13.9 1.6 1.4 14.5

Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com

Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com

Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 3QFY2012 performance

Particulars (` cr) Interest earned - on Advances / Bills - on investments - on balance with RBI & others - on others Interest Expended Net Interest Income Other income Other income excl. treasury - Fee income - Treasury income - Other income Operating income Operating expenses - Employee expenses - Other Opex Pre-provision Profit Provisions & Contingencies PBT Provision for Tax PAT Effective Tax Rate (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 8,592 5,686 2,473 134 299 5,880 2,712 1,892 1,957 1,701 (65) 256 4,604 1,917 837 1,080 2,687 341 2,346 618 1,728 26.3 8,158 5,381 2,345 115 317 5,651 2,506 1,740 1,820 1,700 (80) 120 4,246 1,892 843 1,050 2,354 319 2,035 532 1,503 26.1 5.3 5.7 5.4 16.3 (5.4) 4.0 8.2 8.8 7.5 0.1 (18.8) 114.0 8.4 1.3 (0.7) 2.9 14.2 7.0 15.3 16.2 15.0 21bp 6,696 4,162 2,121 95 317 4,384 2,312 1,749 1,728 1,625 21 103 4,061 1,718 760 957 2,343 464 1,878 441 1,437 23.5 28.3 36.6 16.6 40.7 (5.7) 34.1 17.3 8.2 13.2 4.7 (412.5) 148.4 13.4 11.6 10.0 12.8 14.7 (26.5) 24.9 40.0 20.3 284bp

Exhibit 2: 3QFY2012 Actual vs. estimates

Particulars (` cr) Net interest income Other income Operating income Operating expenses Pre-prov. profit Provisions & cont. PBT Prov. for taxes PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research

Actual 2,712 1,892 4,604 1,917 2,687 341 2,346 618 1,728

Estimates 2,635 1,908 4,544 1,941 2,602 362 2,241 597 1,644

Var. (%) 2.9 (0.9) 1.3 (1.3) 3.3 (5.7) 4.7 3.5 5.1

February 1, 2012

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 3: 3QFY2012 performance analysis

Particulars Balance sheet Advances (` cr) Deposits (` cr) Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) Current deposits (` cr) Saving deposits (` cr) CASA deposits (` cr) CASA ratio (%) CAR (%) Tier 1 CAR (%) Profitability Ratios (%) Reported NIM Cost-to-income ratio Asset quality Gross NPAs (` cr) Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (` cr) Net NPAs (%) Provision Coverage Ratio (%) Provision exps. to avg. assets (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 246,157 233,952 260,589 245,092 94.5 40,039 73,498 43.6 18.9 13.1 2.7 41.6 9,723 3.8 2,048 0.8 78.9 0.3 95.5 32,997 70,149 42.1 19.0 13.1 2.6 44.6 10,021 4.1 2,184 0.9 78.2 0.3 5.2 206,692 6.3 217,747 (99)bp 21.3 4.8 10.1 148bp (11)bp (1)bp 9bp (293)bp (3.0) (32)bp (6.2) (10)bp 70bp 1bp 94.9 31,667 64,577 96,244 44.2 20.0 13.7 2.6 42.3 10,187 4.8 2,873 1.2 71.8 0.5 19.1 19.7 (46)bp 26.4 13.8 18.0 (63)bp (110)bp (59)bp 9bp (67)bp (4.6) (93)bp (28.7) (33)bp 710bp (17)bp

113,537 103,146

Business growth strong during 3QFY2012

Advances for the bank increased by 5.2% qoq (19.1% yoy). Sequential growth was aided by a strong 14.8% qoq growth in corporate book, 5.2% qoq growth in SME book and 4.1% qoq (38.1% yoy) growth in Overseas book (majorly on the back of INRs depreciation). Excluding the impact of exchange rate movement, the growth in international advances stood at ~16.5% yoy. The Rural and retail segment loans were more or less flat sequentially. Retail loans grew by a muted 4.7% yoy, partly due to the banks conscious strategy to reduce the share of unsecured personal and credit card loans. Personal loans came off by a sharp 19.4% qoq (down 60.8% yoy), while credit card debt declined by 2.5% qoq (down 21.7% yoy). Consequently, the retail segments contribution to the advances book came down to 33.5% as of 3QFY2012 from 35.0% as of 2QFY2012 and 38.2% in 3QFY2011. Deposits accretion also showed traction, registering a growth of 6.3% qoq (a muted 19.7% yoy). CASA deposits growth was healthy at 18.0% yoy, driven by a 26.4% yoy increase in current account deposits (strong 21.3% qoq). Saving account deposits growth was relatively lower at 13.8% yoy (4.8% qoq). On account of sharp rise in current account deposits during 3QFY2012, CASA ratio for the bank increased by 148bp qoq to 43.6%. Reported NIM improved by 9bp sequentially to 2.7% as the higher yields were offset by higher funding costs. Domestic NIM improved marginally by 6bp to 3.0%; while, overseas NIM improved by 31bp qoq to 1.4%.

February 1, 2012

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Management expects global NIMs to sustain at 2.7% for FY2012 on the back of better CASA deposits accretion.

Exhibit 4: Muted growth in retail advances

Particulars (` cr) Rural Overseas Corporate SME Retail - Housing - Vehicle - Personal - Credit cards - Other retail Total Advances 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) % to total 17,477 69,663 64,986 11,569 82,463 54,755 22,182 990 2,474 2,062 17,546 66,910 56,616 10,996 81,883 55,107 20,716 1,228 2,538 2,293 (0.4) 4.1 14.8 5.2 0.7 (0.6) 7.1 (19.4) (2.5) (10.1) 15,295 50,433 53,327 8,681 78,956 51,716 19,660 2,527 3,158 1,895 14.3 38.1 21.9 33.3 4.4 5.9 12.8 (60.8) (21.7) 8.8 19.1 7.1 28.3 26.4 4.7 33.5 22.2 9.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 100.0

246,157 233,952

5.2 206,692

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Business growth healthy for 3QFY2012

Adv. qoq growth 9.0 6.0 3.0 (3.0) 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 6: CASA growth picks up in 3QFY2012

CASA ratio (%) 45.0 40.0 35.0
23.0 20.8 14.2 5.1 18.0

Dep. qoq growth 96 95

CDR (%, RHS) 94 100 90 80 70 60

CASA yoy growth 30.0

95

96

20.0

44.2

45.1

41.9

25.0 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

42.1

43.6

30.0

10.0

Exhibit 7: NIM increase by 10bp qoq

2.8 2.6 2.6 NIM (Reported, %) 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7

Exhibit 8: NII growth trends

NII (` cr) 2,750 2,600 2,450 12.3 13.7 23.3
21.1
17.3

YoY growth (%, RHS) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 -

2.4

2,300 2,150

2.2 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

2,000 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

February 1, 2012

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Non-interest income growth remains moderate

During 3QFY2012, other income excluding treasury rose by a moderate 13.3% yoy (up a healthy 7.6% yoy) on back of muted fee income growth of 4.7% yoy. The bank incurred treasury loss of `65cr during 3QFY2012 due to MTM losses on equity and security receipts. The sequential rise in other income was mainly on account of `150cr of dividend income received from life insurance business for 1HFY2012. In light of the visibility on the profitability of the life insurance business, the management is expecting quarterly dividends from ICICI life going forward. Also, according to the management, the bank is witnessing healthy growth in transaction banking and remittance business, and hence is expecting the fee income to register at least a growth of above 10% for FY2013.

Exhibit 9: Fee income picks up sequentially

Particulars (` cr) Fee income Treasury Others Other income Other income excl. treasury
Source: Company, Angel Research

3QFY12 2QFY12 1,701 (65) 256 1,892 1,957 1,700 (80) 120 1,740 1,820

% chg (qoq) 0.1 (18.8) 114.1 8.8 7.6

3QFY11 1,625 21 103 1,749 1,728

% chg (yoy) 4.7 (412.5) 148.6 8.2 13.3

Exhibit 10: Fee income growth slows further

Fee Income (` cr) 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 14.3 11.7 6.9
4.7

Exhibit 11: Still healthy share of fee income in RoA

20.0 15.0 10.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 1.7 1.5 Fee income to average assets (%) 1.8 1.6 1.5

yoy growth (%, RHS)

17.8

1,625

1,791

1,578

1,700

1,500 1,400

1,701

5.0 -

3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

Asset quality continues to improve

The banks asset quality improved during 3QFY2012 with both gross and net NPA levels declining by 3.0% and 6.2% sequentially, respectively. As of 3QFY2012 gross NPA ratio stands at 3.8% (4.1% in 2QFY2012), while net NPA ratio stands at 0.8% (0.9% in 2QFY2012). The NPA coverage ratio remains healthy at 78.9%.
The annualised gross slippages ratio for the quarter was at ~1.6%. The bank restructured `880cr worth of accounts during 3QFY2012 taking the outstanding restructured book to `3,070cr. The bank is expecting ~`1,300cr of restructuring through CDR mechanism further in 4QFY2012, which will include accounts such as GTL and 3I InfoTech. The management guided for provisions-to-average advances of 70bp for FY2012 and 75bp for FY2013.

February 1, 2012

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 12: Restructured loans rise during 3QFY2012

(` cr) 3,750 3,000 2,250 1,500 750 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 2,562 1,970 1,966 2,501 3,070

Exhibit 13: Declining NPAs with improving coverage

Gross NPAs (%) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 71.8 76.0 Net NPAs (%) 76.9 Coverage ratio (%, RHS) 78.2 78.9 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0

4.8 1.2

4.5 1.1

4.4 1.0

4.1 0.9

3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

3.8 0.8
3QFY12 1.7

1.0

60.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 14: Opex trends

Other opex (` cr) 2,500 2,000 Staff exps Opex yoy growth (RHS) (%) 30.0 20.0

Exhibit 15: Cost to income ratio lower for 3QFY2012

Cost-to-income ratio (%) 50.0 45.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Opex to avg assets (%, RHS) 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6

733

760

857

1,500 1,000 500 -

843

837

40.0 10.0 -

1,087

1,050

1,080

42.3

44.5

44.9

44.6

957

989

30.0 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

41.6

35.0

1.5 1.4

3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Under-leveraged branch network

With the merger of Bank of Rajasthan, the bank enjoys a strong pan-India network of 2,552 branches. The number of branches has grown at a strong pace over the past three years. This extensive network is under-leveraged as of now, as reflected in the falling CASA deposits/branch of ~`41cr compared to `65cr as of 3QFY2008 and the total assets/branch of `174cr compared to `394cr as of 3QFY2008. Currently, the bank has 300 branch licenses that are in the process of being executed. Further, management is planning to take the branch network to ~4,000 branches over the next four years (FY2015) in a back-ended mode. Going forward, we expect the bank to leverage this network to grow its CASA market share.

February 1, 2012

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 16: Robust branch expansion

2,700

Exhibit 17: Under-leveraged branch network

Total Assets/Branch (` cr) CASA Deposits/Branch (` cr, RHS)

2,512

2,552

2,250 1,800 1,350 900 450 -

450 360 270 180 90 -

60 50 40 30 20 10 -

1,308

1,416

1,626

4QFY08

1QFY09

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

4QFY08

1QFY09

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

3QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Overview of performance of subsidiaries

For 3QFY2012, consolidated net profit rose by a moderate 6.6% yoy to `2,174cr. Market share based on retail weighted received premium was 6.3% for AprilDecember 2011 ICICI Lombard General Insurance maintained its leadership position in the private sector with an overall market share of 9.6% up to December 2011. The overseas banking subsidiaries of the bank (viz. ICICI Bank Canada and ICICI Bank UK continue to remain a drag on the overall consolidated profitability). Both these subsidiaries loan book continued to contract as the local regulatory provisions have turned against the banks envisaged strategy. Both these subsidiaries continue to be over-capitalised with CAR exceeding 29% in both of them. The bank has initiated dialogue with the Canadian regulator to see if part of the capital can be repatriated. However in the short term, the bank expects the over-capitalised subsidiaries to remain a drag on the RoEs. The exposure to Europe for ICICI UK stands at a relatively lower US$35mn due to a UK-based institution. The remaining investments are primarily for entities in US, Canada and the Asia Pacific region.

February 1, 2012

3QFY12

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 18: Performance of subsidiaries

Subsidiary ICICI Bank UK ICICI Bank Canada ICICI Bank Eurasia ICICI Home Finance ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Parameter PAT (USD mn) PAT (CAD mn) PAT (USD mn) PAT (` cr) APE (` cr) NBP (` cr) NBP margin (%) AuM (` cr) ICICI Lombard Gen. Insurance ICICI Securities ICICI Securities PD ICICI Venture ICICI Prudential AMC
Source: Company, Angel Research

3QFY12 7.7 6.6 0.9 67 860 138 16.0 63,222 1,356 101 18 49 53 22

3QFY11 10.9 10.7 50 571 100 17.6 66,334 1,041 73 35 38 7

% chg (29.4) (38.3) 34.8 50.6 38.0 (9.1) (4.7) 30.3 38.4 (48.6) 39.5 214.3

Gross Premium (` cr) PAT (` cr) PAT (` cr) PAT (` cr) PAT (` cr) PAT (` cr)

4 1,125.0

Investment arguments
Well positioned to garner strong market share gains in CASA deposits
In our view, the banks substantial branch expansion from 955 branches at the end of 3QFY2008 to 2,552 branches by 3QFY2012 and strong capital adequacy, even without reckoning the 9MFY2012 profits, at 18.8% (Tier-I at 13.1%) have positioned it to gain CASA and credit market share, respectively. In fact, the bank has begun gaining market share in savings accounts since FY2010. During FY2011, the bank improved its market share of savings deposits by 10bp over FY2010, capturing a substantial 5.8% incremental market share.

Improved deposit mix to lead to better NIM

The banks strategic transformation is expected to drive significantly better balance sheet and earnings quality, taking RoEs from 9.7% in FY2010 to 14.5% in FY2013E. The distinguishing feature of the banks performance in FY2010 was the improvement in CASA ratio to 42.1% (transformative considering that the ratio was as low as 22% at the end of FY2007 and 29% even as recently as FY2009). The CASA ratio has remained healthy at 43.6% even in 3QFY2012. In light of this change in liability mix, even in a rising interest rate scenario, we expect the banks NIM to remain largely stable in FY2012 and improve to ~2.6% by FY2013 on the back of improvement in international NIM. Apart from the paradigm shift in the deposit mix reflected in its 43.6% CASA ratio, the bank has largely exited unattractive business segments such as small-ticket personal loans in the domestic segment and most non-India related exposures in its international business, focusing again on replacing wholesale funds with retail deposits in international subsidiaries as well.

February 1, 2012

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Asset quality trends remain healthy

The banks asset quality continues to show further improvement, with a declining trend in additions to gross as well as net NPAs. Even in 3QFY2012, annualised gross slippages ratio was comfortable at ~1.46%. Also, the bank has maintained a comfortable provision coverage ratio of 78.9%. The banks restructured loans increased by 22.8% qoq during the quarter to `3,070cr and the management is expecting `1,300cr of further restructuring during 3QFY2012. We expect the reduction in risk profile of advances (and the consequent lower yield on advances) to result in a ~30bp decline in NPA provisioning costs by 2013E over FY2011, eventually reflecting in improved RoA from 1.0% to 1.4% over FY201013E, commensurate with the improvement in CASA ratio.

Valuations attractive
We have a positive view on ICICI Bank, given its market-leading businesses across the financial services spectrum. Moreover, we believe the bank is decisively executing a strategy of consolidation, which has resulted in an improved deposit and loan mix and should drive improved operating metrics over the medium term. The banks substantial branch expansion in the past 24 months is expected to sustain a far more favourable deposit mix going forward. Moreover, a lower risk balance sheet has driven down NPA provisioning costs, which we believe will drive 18.4% yoy growth in net profit for FY2012 and enable RoE of 14.5% by FY2013E (with further upside from financial leverage). At the CMP, the banks core banking business (after adjusting `136/share towards value of the subsidiaries) is trading at 1.7x FY2013E ABV (including subsidiaries, the stock is trading at 1.6x FY2013E ABV). We value the banks subsidiaries at `136/share and the core bank at `925/share (2.15x FY2012E ABV). We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `1,061, implying an upside of 19.5% from current levels.

Exhibit 19: SOTP valuation summary

Particulars ICICI Bank Life Insurance General Insurance Others (Home Fin, AMC, VC, Securities Securities PD and Overseas subsidiaries) SOTP value
Source: Angel Research

Target multiple 2.15x FY2013E ABV 18.0x FY2013E NBP 12x FY2013E PAT

Value/share (`) 925 61 12 63 1,061

February 1, 2012

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 20: Key assumptions

Particulars (%) Credit growth Deposit growth CASA ratio NIMs Other income growth Growth in staff expenses Growth in other expenses Slippages Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments)
Source: Angel Research

Earlier estimates FY2012 18.0 20.0 46.3 2.5 11.1 18.5 15.0 1.6 77.0 FY2013 21.0 21.0 46.7 2.6 24.6 19.6 19.6 1.9 75.0

Revised estimates FY2012 19.0 21.0 45.9 2.6 10.6 17.5 15.0 1.6 78.5 FY2013 21.0 21.0 46.3 2.6 25.2 19.6 19.6 2.0 75.0

Exhibit 21: Change in estimates

FY2012 Particulars (` cr) NII Non-interest income Operating income Operating expenses Pre-prov. profit Provisions & cont. PBT Prov. for taxes PAT
Source: Angel Research

FY2013 Earlier estimates 12,539 9,106 21,645 9,215 12,429 2,185 10,245 2,932 7,313 Revised Var. (%) estimates 12,450 9,105 21,555 9,182 12,374 2,062 10,311 2,951 7,360 (0.7) (0.0) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (5.6) 0.6 0.7 0.6

Earlier estimates 10,324 7,340 17,664 7,708 9,955 1,507 8,449 2,250 6,198

Revised Var. (%) estimates 10,439 7,306 17,746 7,680 10,066 1,488 8,578 2,287 6,291 1.1 (0.5) 0.5 (0.4) 1.1 (1.3) 1.5 1.6 1.5

Exhibit 22: Angel EPS forecast vs. consensus

Year (`) FY2012E FY2013E Angel forecast 54.6 63.9 Bloomberg consensus 54.2 63.4 Var. (%) 0.9 0.8

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

February 1, 2012

10

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 23: P/ABV band

Price (`) 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 1x 1.5x 2x 2.5x 3x

Dec-06

Apr-02

Jul-07

Aug-04

Oct-05

Apr-09

Mar-05

Aug-11

Feb-08

Nov-02

May-06

Nov-09

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 24: P/E band

Price (`) 2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 0 7x 17x 27x 37x

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Aug-05

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 25: ICICI Bank Premium/Discount to the Sensex

(%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20) (40) Premium/Discount to Sensex Avg. Historical Premium

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Aug-11

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

February 1, 2012

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Dec-11

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

11

Mar-12

Sep-08

Jun-03

Jan-04

Jun-10

Jan-11

ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 26: Recommendation summary

Company AxisBk FedBk HDFCBk ICICIBk* SIB YesBk AllBk AndhBk BOB BOI BOM CanBk CentBk CorpBk DenaBk IDBI# IndBk IOB J&KBk OBC PNB SBI* SynBk UcoBk UnionBk UtdBk VijBk Reco. Buy Neutral Neutral Buy Neutral Accumulate Neutral Neutral Buy Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Reduce Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Neutral Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Reduce Accumulate Reduce CMP (`) 1,088 401 497 888 23 335 164 102 755 341 48 472 85 416 69 100 227 88 811 269 956 2,077 98 71 234 70 56 Tgt. price (`) 1,361 1,061 367 907 53 528 79 450 107 877 1,036 2,359 106 217 75 52 Upside (%) 25.2 19.5 9.3 20.1 11.4 11.9 (7.4) 8.1 7.2 8.1 8.4 13.6 8.5 (7.3) 7.7 (8.2) FY2013E P/ABV (x) 1.8 1.1 3.4 1.6 1.1 2.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 FY2013E Tgt P/ABV (x) 2.2 3.5 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 FY2013E P/E (x) 9.4 8.7 17.3 13.9 6.9 11.1 4.6 5.0 5.8 7.2 4.9 6.0 5.5 4.5 3.6 4.9 5.4 4.6 4.7 5.9 6.0 10.1 4.1 4.6 5.9 4.8 6.4 FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 18.2 16.2 30.4 19.5 13.5 20.1 9.1 (4.8) 9.8 2.3 26.3 (7.4) (25.1) (1.8) 2.4 9.9 3.8 5.3 16.7 (5.9) 6.4 26.0 13.7 10.9 0.1 4.3 0.7 FY2013E RoA (%) 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.4 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.5 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 FY2013E RoE (%) 20.2 13.2 21.0 14.5 17.5 20.6 17.3 14.6 19.3 13.7 16.9 15.8 11.4 15.5 14.9 13.4 18.4 12.8 19.0 11.3 19.4 17.9 16.5 15.4 15.8 12.1 11.1

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

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ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 8,202 23.6 8,879 27.5 17,081 25.6 8,154 21.9 8,926 29.2 3,870 18.6 5,056 38.7 898 17.8 4,158 33.7 FY09 9,092 10.9 7,783 (12.3) 16,875 (1.2) 7,045 (13.6) 9,830 10.1 5,048 30.4 4,782 (5.4) 1,359 28.4 3,423 (17.7) FY10 8,114 (10.8) 7,478 (3.9) 15,592 (7.6) 5,860 (16.8) 9,732 (1.0) 4,390 (13.0) 5,342 11.7 1,317 24.7 4,025 17.6 FY11 9,017 11.1 6,648 (11.1) 15,665 0.5 6,617 12.9 9,048 (7.0) 2,290 (47.8) 6,758 26.5 1,606 23.8 5,151 28.0 FY12E 10,439 15.8 7,306 9.9 17,746 13.3 7,680 16.1 10,066 11.3 1,488 (35.0) 8,578 26.9 2,287 26.7 6,291 22.1 FY13E 12,450 19.3 9,105 24.6 21,555 21.5 9,182 19.6 12,374 22.9 2,062 38.6 10,311 20.2 2,951 28.6 7,360 17.0

Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital - Equity - Preference Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 1,463 1,113 350 45,358 244,431 6.0 65,648 20,750 22,145 399,795 29,378 8,664 111,454 225,616 15.2 4,109 20,575 399,795 14.9 FY09 1,463 1,113 350 48,420 218,348 (10.7) 67,324 25,482 18,265 379,301 17,536 12,430 103,058 218,311 (3.2) 3,802 24,164 379,301 (6.3) FY10 1,465 1,115 350 50,503 202,017 (7.5) 60,947 32,967 15,501 363,400 27,514 11,359 120,893 181,206 (17.0) 3,213 19,215 363,400 (4.4) FY11 1,502 1,152 350 53,939 225,602 11.7 72,813 36,391 15,987 406,234 20,907 13,183 134,686 216,366 19.4 4,744 16,347 406,234 12.1 FY12E 1,502 1,152 350 57,486 272,979 21.0 90,881 37,119 18,687 478,654 20,473 15,611 160,285 257,475 19.0 5,450 19,359 478,654 18.4 FY13E 1,502 1,152 350 61,651 330,304 21.0 113,661 37,862 21,998 566,977 21,470 18,573 186,068 311,545 21.0 6,289 23,031 566,977 19.0

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ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.8 12.6 10.3 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.9 10.1 9.2 2.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 3.0 1.6 1.4 0.4 1.0 9.5 9.7 2.4 0.6 1.8 (0.1) 1.7 1.7 3.5 1.8 1.7 0.4 1.3 9.2 11.7 2.4 0.3 2.1 (0.0) 2.0 1.6 3.7 1.8 1.9 0.5 1.4 9.8 13.4 2.4 0.4 2.0 0.0 2.1 1.7 3.7 1.8 1.9 0.6 1.4 10.7 14.5 23.8 2.2 1.2 28.9 2.1 1.2 24.6 2.0 1.4 19.9 1.9 1.6 16.3 1.7 2.0 13.9 1.6 2.4 37.4 405.0 11.0 30.7 425.7 11.0 36.1 449.8 12.0 44.7 478.3 14.0 54.6 509.1 18.0 63.9 545.2 21.0 3.6 1.5 1.9 0.7 58.2 4.3 2.1 2.2 1.0 52.8 5.1 2.1 1.5 1.2 59.5 4.5 1.1 1.5 0.5 76.0 4.4 1.0 1.6 0.3 78.5 4.5 1.2 2.0 0.4 75.0 26.1 92.3 14.0 11.8 28.7 100.0 15.5 11.8 41.7 89.7 19.4 14.0 45.1 95.9 19.5 13.2 45.9 94.3 18.0 11.0 46.3 94.3 16.1 10.0 2.4 47.7 0.8 10.3 2.6 41.7 0.9 9.2 2.4 37.6 1.0 9.7 2.6 42.2 1.3 11.7 2.6 43.3 1.4 13.4 2.6 42.6 1.4 14.5 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

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ICICI Bank | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

ICICI Bank No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

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